💲 Eurovision 2024 Odds UPDATE & ANALYSIS: 🇨🇭🇳🇱🇬🇷 climbing! | Eurovision 2024

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  • čas přidán 1. 06. 2024
  • I check out the latest odds for Eurovision 2024 and what has happened since my
    As new countries enter the scoreboard, I take a look at how they affect the other countries as they come in, investigating the overlapping tastes between songs that could affect their results
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    Timestamps:
    0:00 Intro
    0:34 Bottom 12
    4:32 Middle 15
    11:31 France
    12:38 Sweden
    14:27 Greece
    15:57 Netherlands
    17:43 Switzerland
    19:05 Italy
    19:54 Ukraine
    20:43 Croatia
    23:28 Eurovision Scoreboard
    24:05 Upcoming Betting Markets
    Check out my other videos:
    My Eurovision 2023 Top 37:
    • My Top 37 - Eurovision...
    Top 44 Countries in Eurovision:
    • Top 44 Countries in Eu...
    Eurovision 2023 Grand Final Analysis: Part 1:
    • Eurovision 2023's plac...
    Eurovision 2023 Grand Final Analysis: Part 1:
    • The Ultimate Eurovisio...
    Eurovision 2023 Grand Final Analysis: Part 3:
    • Eurovision 2023 Grand ...
    Eurovision Hearts: Thanks to Smthngnw on Wikipedia
    Outro Screen Music:
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    Video Link: • MBB - Feel Good (Vlog No Copyright Music)
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Komentáře • 328

  • @willardprenfrew4303
    @willardprenfrew4303 Před 2 měsíci +86

    Eurovision 2024 is so competitive! No matter the results, it's such a treat to see so many delegations giving ESC their best effort and dropping ultra quality songs 💖💖💖

    • @ESCTom
      @ESCTom  Před 2 měsíci +18

      yep, its so open this year, i love it. i hope it stays that way all the way to the end

  • @sucha0000
    @sucha0000 Před 2 měsíci +66

    Doesn't matter what happens. I haven't seen my country so united when it comes to Baby Lasagna since the world cup 2018 I think 😅

    • @ANA-il6js85
      @ANA-il6js85 Před 2 měsíci +6

      🤣🤣❤️❤️, ej ovaj cu komentar sacuvat. Mislim da je nekim drzavama ode puno vise stalo do pobjede nego nama prvenstveno jer su navikli uvik biti u vrhu, a budimo realni uvik su to iste drzave. I sad kad je na vrhu neko ka mi odma je linč. A ja ono uzivam u trenutku, nije me briga, za dva miseca nece niko vise pricat o ovome. Jedino sta ne volim uvrede, e tu se poludim. Znaju pretjerivat a Marko to nije zasluzija. Sorry sta pisem na hrv al sanjam na engleski i vise sam umorna 🤣👍🇭🇷.

    • @sucha0000
      @sucha0000 Před 2 měsíci +1

      Ma i meni je i dosta engleskog 😂 Decko djeluje toliko drag i skroman da stvarno ne razumijem te idiote. Ako ti se nesto ne sviđa, ides dalje i bok. U pravu si, sad kad smo mi prvi odmah su kladionice pretjerane, a prethodnih godina kad su druge zemlje koje obicno pobjeđuju prve onda su kladionice u pravu. Nema veze, mi smo navikli da nas se podcjenjuje jer smo mali. Meni nije bitno da pobijedi, naravno bilo bi super, al mi je stvarno drago da je televote na Dori pokazao da ima ogromnu podrsku doma, a to je najvaznije.

    • @ANA-il6js85
      @ANA-il6js85 Před 2 měsíci

      ​@@sucha0000 al zato je ziri italije pokaza sta misli 🤣🤦🏻‍♀️. S hejt komentarima se tesko nosim najvise zbog toga jer je on tako skroman i neiskusan u svemu ovome, i sta me najvise zivcira sta europa to ne razumi, on je u ovome sam. Znaci mi nemamo love za skupe stage dizajnere il sta vec, nema skupe kostime, ne iskace iz pastete niti se nameče puno, on ima svoj tim i svoju pismu koju nije produciralo pola europe. Spot mu je radila zarucnica, piva je dva puta uzivo u zivotu, bori se s panikom... znaci sa svim time bit medu favoritima je nesto posebno. I za nas sve on je vec pobjednik. Sve je to politika na kraju i natjecanje popularnosti. Neke zemlje da izbace brojalicu bile bi top 10. Raspisala sam ss sorry 🤣, al pratim ESC s prekidima vec 20 godina i znam kako stvari funkcioniraju, znam kako se boduje, znam ko prolazi, zato nema razocaranja kako proslo da proslo, jer ovakvog predstavnika nismo imali od Doris a niti cemo imati jos duze vrime. Amen 🤣👍❤️

    • @DanaNovak
      @DanaNovak Před 2 měsíci +1

      Navijam iz Srbije 🎉 odlična pesma i sve

  • @Maira-Ma.03.
    @Maira-Ma.03. Před 2 měsíci +112

    -How many times have you heard the Greek song "zari"?
    Me: Ta ta ta ta ta ta ta ta
    I'm addicted to this song, the more i hear it the more it drives me crazy! I never get tired of it, while I'm already tired of the others.

    • @esc1074
      @esc1074 Před 2 měsíci +6

      Me: too many times😂, sorry! I very much appreciate Greece's entry and love the traditional elements but for me its too noisy and maybe for the casual viewers during final it might be less approachable than some other entries. Hope it does well though👍

    • @SmolAliens
      @SmolAliens Před 2 měsíci +2

      The ‘ta’ sound sounds extremely close to the new Roblox death sound. I can’t get over it. 😂

    • @Maira-Ma.03.
      @Maira-Ma.03. Před 2 měsíci +14

      @@esc1074 The noisy songs for me are from the Netherlands and Croatia. Netherland's song, I can't get it to listen to the whole thing. It's a gym song and those dap dap dap sounds annoy me. Also, the Dutch language is not melodious at all, sorry, but I don't like their language at all. Croatia's song now, it's not a radio song at all, it's not danced or sung, it's a song only for the Eurovision stage, it's not for clubs, not for parties, I don't like it at all. Also, I can't hear him sing, he has no voice at all. Finally, I like Italy, but I'm already tired of it, it doesn't stand out.

    • @esc1074
      @esc1074 Před 2 měsíci +3

      @@Maira-Ma.03. Ok fair enough. Different ppl different tastes. Who are your favourites?

    • @Maira-Ma.03.
      @Maira-Ma.03. Před 2 měsíci +10

      @@SmolAliens Hahahahahaha, that's your opinion and it's respected. To me the Croatian sounds like a rested guitar 🎸😂

  • @Tollkirschenkind
    @Tollkirschenkind Před 2 měsíci +50

    I'm really glad Marko (Baby Lasagna) will be at three pre-parties. I think what could be a deciding factor is nerves, and he needs the rehearsals to calm him down and give him the confidence he needs.
    Don't think pre-parties are a deciding factor usually, but having the experience and seeing the love he's getting will do wonders for him.

    • @ESCTom
      @ESCTom  Před 2 měsíci +5

      Yea if you want experience and to try things out - preparties are amazing

    • @lana_1310
      @lana_1310 Před 2 měsíci +5

      he's also performing on an award show here in Croatia that's pretty soon from what ive seen! obviously, that is pretty small and very different compared to preparties and rehearsals, but I think starting off with a (in all grand scheme of things) "small" performance in his home country could be a pretty good stepping stone for getting into the performer mindset

    • @ANA-il6js85
      @ANA-il6js85 Před 2 měsíci

      @@lana_1310 and he did pretty well, considering he was alone, i didnt hear any backing vocals, the music was weird, but i loved the outfit ❤️. And he jumped like a lot 🤣👍. But he needs bigger stage for sure. This HRT events are 👎

    • @lana_1310
      @lana_1310 Před 2 měsíci +1

      @@ANA-il6js85 i agree, he seems to be improving with his vocals rather well! the sound design and the camera shots were... well, pretty bad. but that's the croatian broadcaster for you. when talking about things he could actually control i think that he's been showing clear signs of improvement and I can't wait to see it in a more polished state!! and I agree, the outfit was wonderful 🫶

    • @ANA-il6js85
      @ANA-il6js85 Před 2 měsíci +1

      @@lana_1310 HRT is... i dont have words for them, they should be banned for life to organise anything. His breathing is def better, with all that jumping he did well, he deserves a big stage for sure, not this, our summer festival has better production 🤣🤦🏻‍♀️

  • @MrTomyxl
    @MrTomyxl Před 2 měsíci +69

    1.Croatia
    2.Greece
    3.Norway

  • @Maria_muziekjes
    @Maria_muziekjes Před 2 měsíci +34

    The Staging of the Netherlands is top secret, The only thing we know is they are working really hard on it, but that’s it…

    • @dennisdejong6540
      @dennisdejong6540 Před 2 měsíci

      I heard they might stage with an interpreter/dancer.

  • @Hannahdomanolo
    @Hannahdomanolo Před 2 měsíci +51

    Croatia is now at 21% in the odds 😯🥰

  • @alipanroosendaal9503
    @alipanroosendaal9503 Před 2 měsíci +44

    Tom, you are the go-to Eurovision info. guy. Great content. Enjoy the coffee.

    • @ESCTom
      @ESCTom  Před 2 měsíci

      Thank you 🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻

  • @Modosco
    @Modosco Před 2 měsíci +40

    I don't worry about Nemo being nervous, they've been on the big stage since they were little (doing musicals).
    Maybe we will see the first live performance soon. 👀

  • @esc1074
    @esc1074 Před 2 měsíci +11

    Every year when Eurovision starts I search for Tom's uploads and content. In addition always commenting while remaining respectfull towards artists and entries

  • @thalassophile_artist
    @thalassophile_artist Před 2 měsíci +50

    Portugal and Serbia are so underrated....

    • @irs719
      @irs719 Před 2 měsíci +4

      they're both in my personal top 10, but I worry about their qualifications chances in the televote-only semis. they both should do well with juries if they get that far.

    • @seleniaactimel
      @seleniaactimel Před 2 měsíci +4

      Televote-only semis just brings extra risk for all slower, less showy songs. But Switzerland managed last year, let's keep our fingers crossed!

    • @alexandrab142
      @alexandrab142 Před 2 měsíci

      austria is in the 12th place...thats was for you? No more🤨...you don't like austria😔

    • @egyptianhibiscus9203
      @egyptianhibiscus9203 Před 2 měsíci

      @@alexandrab142 This is not his list

    • @slavicailic1265
      @slavicailic1265 Před 2 měsíci +1

      Serbia top ten

  • @Hawke00
    @Hawke00 Před 2 měsíci +41

    Lasagna had little time to prepare for his NF performance. And look how much he improved in 48 hours! He'll do amazing in May, I believe it!

    • @berlineczka
      @berlineczka Před 2 měsíci +4

      Exactly. The Dora semifinal was his first ever live performance as a singer, and the final was his second. Sure, he has work to do. But he learns quickly. If he gets good support in vocal and stage coaching, he can smash the ESC scene in May.

    • @KylieWilson
      @KylieWilson Před 2 měsíci +2

      If he works hard in the next few weeks he’ll do great. Probably the best example of an inexperienced performer really putting their head down and grinding it out to get the best possible performance is Norway in 2014. In the MGP semis he was a nervous wreck, but by Eurovision he became a completely different performer. Because of that I always maintain that any Eurovision artist regardless of experience can improve on stage if they work hard enough.

  • @ANA-il6js85
    @ANA-il6js85 Před 2 měsíci +39

    I dont believe in odds until reherseals 🤣, 2021 was an example for me. But thats the beauty if this years contest, anyone can win. As a Croat its a constant battle between my heart and my brain 🤣.

    • @lucywhite3229
      @lucywhite3229 Před 2 měsíci +11

      I'm from Kosovo and I'm rooting for Croatia. I really hope Baby Lasagna wins!

    • @ANA-il6js85
      @ANA-il6js85 Před 2 měsíci

      @@lucywhite3229 ❤️❤️❤️ 😼😼😼

    • @tony0930
      @tony0930 Před 2 měsíci +5

      Remember Eleni being 25th in the odds, but when the rehearsals came out she jumped to 1st place

    • @ANA-il6js85
      @ANA-il6js85 Před 2 měsíci +4

      @@tony0930 yeah, she was my winner that year, and look at Malta in 2021, amazing vocals but the staging was off.

    • @healthytrout
      @healthytrout Před 2 měsíci +1

      I am rooting for Croatia this year

  • @MintyDragonfly
    @MintyDragonfly Před 2 měsíci +8

    I will be so stoked if Croatia win, it’ll be such a fantastic underdog story that we missed out on with Käärijä last year. I think he’s got a lot of competition and Marko really needs to use the season to his advantage and get as much audience-facing experience as possible, but I’ll be so delighted if he does it, it’s my favourite this year. I’m kind of surprised about Greece being as high as it is, sonically I just don’t really get it, but it’s nice for Greece to have some success again. It’s also literally shocking to Iceland still so high in the odds, that’s a straight up non-qualifier imo so idk good luck to her I guess.

  • @idraote
    @idraote Před 2 měsíci +19

    I'm sorry to see Slovenia and Norway falling down the odds like that. They are still in my top five.

    • @artemravinskiy7686
      @artemravinskiy7686 Před 2 měsíci

      Slovenia is actually rising little by little

    • @irs719
      @irs719 Před 2 měsíci +1

      I still have them as my top two, though my top five is getting crowded & I'll likely shuffle it around soon.

    • @republikadugave420
      @republikadugave420 Před 2 měsíci +1

      Both are amazing songs...should be top 5 but hey...italy... I mean talk about average song...

    • @jacobhelm8101
      @jacobhelm8101 Před 2 měsíci

      Slovenia is in my top 3 with Croatia and Lithuania

  • @aimafa
    @aimafa Před 2 měsíci +12

    I think the odds can change quite a lot after the first rehearsals. I remember the hype about Malta in 2021 and after rehearsals they dropped massively…I think since there is not really a clear winner this year, a lot will depend on the staging and live vocals

    • @ANA-il6js85
      @ANA-il6js85 Před 2 měsíci +1

      And thats just another proof that its not all about vocals, because she had one of the best vocals that year, its the staging also, and i remember the hype even ESC channel was hyping her, and look what happened. Nothing is certain until the end.

  • @complainingperson2883
    @complainingperson2883 Před 2 měsíci +15

    The pace right now is insane, I don't get how you are staying on top of everything

  • @myrawatters1036
    @myrawatters1036 Před 2 měsíci +11

    Love these videos. Thanks Tom.

  • @user-zl4mq3bf5c
    @user-zl4mq3bf5c Před 2 měsíci +23

    Croatia ❤❤❤

  • @sixtiessyl
    @sixtiessyl Před 2 měsíci +44

    I don't think Croatia is exaggerated. From the moment I first heard it I felt like it just had this "special sauce", in spite of its shortcomings. I believe that this will work in its favour and that it has a good chance of winning. Especially when he polishes his performance.

    • @sarahenchanted
      @sarahenchanted Před 2 měsíci +5

      he's pretty self aware that he's not the best singer in the world and I would guess getting some vocal training (plus I think they are gonna tweak the staging). I'd be shocked if it ended up being a downgrade from Dora.

    • @sixtiessyl
      @sixtiessyl Před 2 měsíci +3

      ​@@sarahenchantedyes, he doesn't have to be either for this type of song. He is still better than Kaarija, who actually did very little singing in UMK. BL said he will combine elements from both the Dora performance and the music video and amplify everything times ten. Can't wait to see!

  • @mzbelgium
    @mzbelgium Před 2 měsíci +1

    Some really interesting analysis in this, great job! And you make me excited for what Joost might come up with staging-wise... also because I placed an each-way bet on the Netherlands at 50/1 the day the song was released 😅

  • @Iamyouiay
    @Iamyouiay Před 2 měsíci +11

    Crazy hard year, those lives are going to be key!

  • @Unfortunatesoul00
    @Unfortunatesoul00 Před 2 měsíci +31

    I still think that croatia has a big chance to win this year, and it has to be croatia cause we need a fresh breath for contest's future. This years contenders are mostly italy, the netherlands, ukraine, switzerland the three of these won the contest in 5 years, other reason it would be wonderful to see a country that never win before and a small balkan county would be even better. I dont see switzerland's winning because causal watchers wouldn't like this song as much as we eurofans did. I hope croatia and baby lasagna manage to win because i need, contest need to talk about other countries too. In this 5 years we see almost the same countries as a contenders or top10, we need to give chance to smaller countries too.

    • @hurmur9528
      @hurmur9528 Před 2 měsíci +2

      Well most boring would be Italy since that song are not on par with the other you mention. Im ok with any of the others. But I listen to them now and Mutti should be on the list also. He is a powerful singer.

    • @Unfortunatesoul00
      @Unfortunatesoul00 Před 2 měsíci

      @@hurmur9528 yeah definitely but i think his jury points will divide with slimane and he will not get enough televote points to win the contest thats why i didnt include him.

    • @hurmur9528
      @hurmur9528 Před 2 měsíci

      @@Unfortunatesoul00 Possible but I do not know. It is pretty damn good. Europapa grows on me as well. And I did not know his background until now and I did not catch that at all from the end of the song before. But I still understood it was something serious with him… it just felt like that. I have a hard time not supporting him now. Just everything from the artists charm, to the catchiness of the song (my three year old who heard some of the songs when I listened to some of the top rated songs when she played with her toys said papa can you play Europapa again) and the underlying message from him serious and fun at the same time, like we have it in Europe right now a bastion of freedom under threat.

  • @josipk513
    @josipk513 Před 2 měsíci +82

    I think that Croatia has a winning story this year. From the song that was just a reserve for the national selection, through the production of the song, the video and the performance that were done by only him and his girlfriend, to the serious topic that the song brings. I think Croatia has the whole package!😊

    • @ESCTom
      @ESCTom  Před 2 měsíci +21

      Yep I totally agree. I just wonder if the commentators will talk about that though. Cos otherwise I don’t think people at home will know

    • @alterego5824
      @alterego5824 Před 2 měsíci +11

      I agree! But unfortunately, although the song is a bop, the live performance seems too messy and vocally unstable, and this might really affect his chances to win. A top 5 placement is secured tho

    • @e_la_cumbia_della_noia
      @e_la_cumbia_della_noia Před 2 měsíci +9

      I don't see the whole package here...

    • @HrvojeBan
      @HrvojeBan Před 2 měsíci +13

      ​​@@alterego5824Baby Lasagna is, for now, going to preparties in Madrid, Amsterdam and London so he will have more experience in live performing the song in front of fans and I think the feedback from the crowd will boost his self-esteem and make him much more confident and relaxed on the big stage in Malmö!

    • @freshlypainted
      @freshlypainted Před 2 měsíci +8

      none of these elements are giving winning story, it's only giving dark horse.

  • @leoschenk2466
    @leoschenk2466 Před 2 měsíci +1

    Great analysis again Tom! Thanks.

  • @andytarver263
    @andytarver263 Před 2 měsíci

    😅love your channel.
    Thanks for all your hard work

  • @Peterpunk80
    @Peterpunk80 Před 2 měsíci

    Very good analysis, always enjoy watching your videos much ❤

  • @cashonly8385
    @cashonly8385 Před 2 měsíci +32

    I’m totally rooting for Baby Lasagne! I would love to see him smash a win.

  • @deinHELD1
    @deinHELD1 Před 2 měsíci +4

    I saw Nemo on several swiss festival live, when they were around 18/19years old. This kid is just born for the stage and rocked 20‘000 people effortlessly.

  • @Esccc_moon
    @Esccc_moon Před 2 měsíci +11

    I’m going to Greece the week after Eurovision, we’ll probably hear Marina everywhere if she wins😂

    • @ShonaSharipova
      @ShonaSharipova Před 2 měsíci +4

      Even if she doesn't win it will be everywhere ❤‍🔥

  • @zemonsta
    @zemonsta Před 2 měsíci +1

    Dear Tom,
    Your stats and analysis vids are fantastic.
    I'd love to see you make a video dedicated to the diaspora vote and the impact that has considering:
    - which countries have a high diaspora in particular countries (E.g. about 6% of Iceland's population is counted as being of Polish origins) and
    - what trends can be seen how Iceland voted in the past in consideration to that.
    This might be a huge task, but if anyone can do it, it's you. 😁

  • @katerinad5460
    @katerinad5460 Před 2 měsíci +6

    this year Greece is totally worth the 1st place. Marina is a unique artist ❣❣❣❣

  • @marsh2741
    @marsh2741 Před 2 měsíci +7

    My faves! :
    Norway
    Croatia
    Belgium
    Netherlands

  • @lepdra
    @lepdra Před 2 měsíci +24

    Baby Lasagna for the win. Go Croatia. 🇭🇷

  • @SmolAliens
    @SmolAliens Před 2 měsíci +5

    This year is gonna have some heartbreaking NQs for sure, the competition is soooooo fierce.

  • @user-zc6rt6qo2e
    @user-zc6rt6qo2e Před 2 měsíci +10

    1. Belguim
    2. Israel
    3. Armenia

  • @avapangeayt2397
    @avapangeayt2397 Před 2 měsíci +15

    I can't understand how they like Croatia's entry

    • @earendilonautikos
      @earendilonautikos Před 2 měsíci

      I know right? It’s embarrassment for rock music and straight up copying cha cha cha from last year. But not even close to being so cool. How can people applaud this

  • @KylieWilson
    @KylieWilson Před 2 měsíci +11

    Even though I still think this is an open year, I’m feeling more confident that we might be going back to Rotterdam next year. I’ve seen clips of Joost live and he’s a really good hype man, so I’m expecting the live show to elevate the song big time. Also I have a theory that because we have so many songs that aren’t thee most jury friendly this year, they can’t rank all of them low so there’s every chance that one of them could slip through the cracks, and based on the information I have I would argue that the Dutch song is more jury friendly than Croatia purely bc it is more polished

  • @kimslice9993
    @kimslice9993 Před 2 měsíci +8

    I’m a rock fan and yes baby lasagna has me and my votes 😂

  • @kuvattelija
    @kuvattelija Před 2 měsíci +5

    tom you are spoiling us with these analyses!!

  • @none4tube
    @none4tube Před 2 měsíci +2

    Your T-shirt is perfect!!! Where did you find/buy it?

    • @ESCTom
      @ESCTom  Před 2 měsíci +2

      another creator had it on their online shop but the shop got taken down for copyright

  • @christianhofer6234
    @christianhofer6234 Před 2 měsíci

    Really love your T Shirt 🎉🎉🎉

  • @gmr6898
    @gmr6898 Před 2 měsíci +15

    I don't think Italy and Greece will hurt each other so much as you think. In 2021 Italy and Finland had quite same genre but I don't think it hurted them. Also i'm predicting Croatia, Netherlands and Greece as top 3 in televote with Ukraine being close with the sympathy votes. This year live performances will be more than crucial!

    • @healthytrout
      @healthytrout Před 2 měsíci

      i think the statement " sympathy votes" has to end, this degrades anything that Ukraine sends. As a Ukr, I am rooting for Croatia, so not a huge fan of Jerry and A+A. But "sympathy votes" sound kind of offensive.

    • @wedontneedno
      @wedontneedno Před 2 měsíci

      @@healthytrout well, it is true that Ukraine and Israel get sympathy votes. Ukraine deserves them, Israel doesn't. First and foremost eurovision is geopolitical

  • @CathalComerford
    @CathalComerford Před 2 měsíci

    I wonder do countries where gambling is more popular tend to end up with more favourable odds as people are more likely to back their own country, driving the odds down? In particular I think Ireland and the UK are two of the countries where betting is most common.

  • @user-rs2wj8su6r
    @user-rs2wj8su6r Před 2 měsíci +4

    1. GREECE 🇬🇷
    2. ITALY 🇮🇹
    3. FRANCE 🇫🇷

  • @PrettyBasicMan
    @PrettyBasicMan Před 2 měsíci

    Hi Tom! I noticed you have checked out a few covers from Eurovision in the past. Did you ever watch Andre Rieu/Emma Kok singing Voila from Barbara Pravi? If not - worth doing a first time watch on the channel for ;)

    • @PrettyBasicMan
      @PrettyBasicMan Před 2 měsíci

      czcams.com/video/KdIhq1tb8Co/video.html

    • @ESCTom
      @ESCTom  Před 2 měsíci

      unfortunately im moving away from reaction videos right now

  • @HelloWorld-kt7jk
    @HelloWorld-kt7jk Před 2 měsíci +2

    Interesting addition I want to make: betting is banned in the NL (except for some sports betting on a few selected platforms). This means that, in contrast to other countries, the Dutch valuation is fully based on non-Dutch sentiments. If you were to substract domestic betting from all the other countries, I'd think Joost would be close (if not) 3rd, considering the relatively small differences between 5-3. If he were indeed 3rd, this would add in an entire new dynamic going into the rehearsal weeks

    • @ESCTom
      @ESCTom  Před 2 měsíci

      Interesting point. I believe betting is banned in France too? Maybe there are more countries ?

    • @Skodabura
      @Skodabura Před 2 měsíci +3

      If I understood it good, most of these bettings come from UK. I also doubt that in Croatia many people bet on Eurovision

    • @HelloWorld-kt7jk
      @HelloWorld-kt7jk Před 2 měsíci +1

      @@Skodabura yeah, the betting market is probably the biggest in the UK, so it's likely not thousands of croatians betting on themselves. however, as eurovision fans we might forget that we are still relatively far removed from eurovision (ca. 7 weeks). the amount of money that has been put into the odds is relatively limited as of now. the 'big money' will likely start to poor in once rehearsals start. so in the current market, a couple of thousands here and there might give you a significant boost. that's why i do think it's relevant to mention, as i think it would definitely get Joost closer to 3rd place if dutch people were able to bet themselves

  • @franzcohenfan3619
    @franzcohenfan3619 Před 2 měsíci

    In my mind this is possibly one of the strongest years . I have downloaded and played almost all of the songs .

  • @Erdos443-yn3xd
    @Erdos443-yn3xd Před 2 měsíci +2

    I seriously just... don't get how RTTD is being seen as a potential Eurovision winning song/performance. It's giving real Italy 2017 energy at this stage in the game. But, would be fun to see how Croatia would host though 🤷‍♂

  • @user-th9ne6su5y
    @user-th9ne6su5y Před 2 měsíci +27

    Croatia 21% in the odds ❤️

  • @MicaelaHB03
    @MicaelaHB03 Před 2 měsíci +18

    rooting for baby lasagna 🇭🇷❤️

  • @12_terabyte57
    @12_terabyte57 Před 2 měsíci +16

    Finland got 4th in the juries last year, which just makes me confident that a hardstyle song can actually do well with the juries if it’s really well and professionally produced, and professionally presented on stage. This is why I’m confident that the Netherlands can actually win, apart from the bias towards my home country😅

    • @TheManInBlueFlames
      @TheManInBlueFlames Před 2 měsíci +5

      Croatia can also win since it's more like Cha Cha Cha! Also, juries will accommodate for the backlash last year

    • @MrTomyxl
      @MrTomyxl Před 2 měsíci +2

      Netherland can’t win because Croatia have so far better and most powerful song!🐱🔥meow

    • @Maria_muziekjes
      @Maria_muziekjes Před 2 měsíci

      Finland last year was another level, I will never forget his energy ❤️🇳🇱

    • @KylieWilson
      @KylieWilson Před 2 měsíci +2

      I’m pretty sure it will be elevated big time with the live performance, I’ve seen clips of Joost live and he’s a really good hype man, I’m pretty sure people will love him

    • @hurmur9528
      @hurmur9528 Před 2 měsíci +2

      @@TheManInBlueFlames There is not that much backlash. Cha Cha Cha was hyped at the time. It did not age well. Still it got good grades from the jury. I would say beeing like Cha Cha Cha is a mistake for Croatia, I do not think it is… but if people start to think that I am rather sure it will be negative (like trying to copy).
      I think Netherlands have a huge chance. I see the amount of views on his video. An my three year old said she wanted to hear Europapa again after hearing like 20 seconds of the song. It is extremely catchy.

  • @eoghandowney537
    @eoghandowney537 Před 2 měsíci +8

    1. Croatia 🇭🇷
    2. Greece 🇬🇷
    3. Italy 🇮🇹
    4. The Netherlands 🇳🇱.
    The televote will either be won by either Croatia 🇭🇷 or the Netherlands 🇳🇱 . The jury I am not sure what will happen, where I think France 🇫🇷 could well surprise us.

  • @farmerpickless
    @farmerpickless Před 2 měsíci +14

    This might be Croatia's first win, depending on the staging.

  • @sarahenchanted
    @sarahenchanted Před 2 měsíci +10

    Thank you for explaining how odds work, I think a lot of people take it at face value too much and get upset over spilled milk when it's a lot more complex than what it seems.
    I think a huge reason Croatia is sitting comfortably in first place right now is we have a general idea of the staging (it'll probably change in May but it's a first draft atm) while we don't know what Netherlands, Switzerland, Belgium, and Italy will be like (I know Italy's been performed alive but the staging will likely be different than Sanremo lol). However, Croatia is what's giving me the biggest winner vibe right now.
    Personally, I'm not too confident about if Israel will even qualify (it's very 50/50 right now). Aside from everything going on, the song is very vanilla and Israel has always been hit or miss with the televote (plus they don't really have "friends" like Cyprus and Azerbaijan in there with them) so it's a huge gray area right now.

  • @nocturne7371
    @nocturne7371 Před 2 měsíci +2

    I have never been as egalitarian about who I want to win, there are so many good options. It would be nice if a country that hasn't won the last 5 years would win like Croatia, France, Greece or Switzerland.

  • @irs719
    @irs719 Před 2 měsíci

    where can I get a t-shirt like the one you're wearing in this video?

  • @Murat.B
    @Murat.B Před 2 měsíci

    That t-shirt is everything

  • @MrTomyxl
    @MrTomyxl Před 2 měsíci +12

    Today 21.3.
    Eurovision odds; 1.Croatia 21% winning chance,every day 1% more🎉

  • @vahidmustafazade4783
    @vahidmustafazade4783 Před 2 měsíci +5

    I dont understand why Luxemburg is so low?

  • @debsiduracel
    @debsiduracel Před 2 měsíci +5

    My lasagna comes from Italy ❤❤❤

  • @christitheboss3683
    @christitheboss3683 Před 2 měsíci +4

    Netherland and Switzerland for the win🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉

  • @patrickuotinen
    @patrickuotinen Před 2 měsíci

    Do you think Finland and the Netherlands have some overlap, both being fun eurobeat songs?

    • @ESCTom
      @ESCTom  Před 2 měsíci +2

      Yep but I think Netherlands wins the battle in most of the cases

    • @patrickuotinen
      @patrickuotinen Před 2 měsíci +1

      @@ESCTom it isn't important here, which one of them will win between the two, but whether they will cannibalise enough voters from the other, that neither of them will win the whole contest.
      As for which one wins between the two, judging by the views of the videos, you are probably right, though let's not forget, that we haven't yet seen the live staging of the Dutch entry.

  • @DarkFlareGC
    @DarkFlareGC Před 2 měsíci +11

    This year is so exciting! There are so many possible winners it is insane 🥳 I'm rooting for Baby Lasagna though 😸 It would really cap off this crazy year to have the alternate from Dora come and win the whole contest.

  • @DoomcakeOfEllinia
    @DoomcakeOfEllinia Před 2 měsíci +1

    Mark my words, next year we will go to the Netherlands.
    Joost will blow us away on stage.

  • @sixtiessyl
    @sixtiessyl Před 2 měsíci +1

    I'm surprised by Albania's jump, I think I haven't heard of a single person who prefers Titan to Zemren n Dore

    • @ESCTom
      @ESCTom  Před 2 měsíci +1

      i think it might actually have come before the song was released. also because theres so few bets being placed down the bottom, even something medium can jump someone up a lot

  • @thingybob4375
    @thingybob4375 Před 2 měsíci

    France has often had really good, imaginative, staging - Barbara Pravi for example. It's disappointing that, for two consecutive years, they have resorted to imagery that has been used several times before - the long dress for La Zarra , the mirror vest for Slimane, It's a bit disappointing.

    • @ESCTom
      @ESCTom  Před 2 měsíci

      I’m hoping it’s not the final styling, but it does appear so

  • @Hectorien_
    @Hectorien_ Před 2 měsíci +1

    Estonias entry is something my parents would uncontrollably laugh to for the entire three minutes if we decide to watch the show this year

  • @vicsymons1570
    @vicsymons1570 Před 2 měsíci +3

    To be fair, even if I don't think Slimane will use the type of lightshow he uses for HIS TOUR and for his MV, but forcefully he keeps using it, it's part of his cupidon tour, the eurofans doing conclusions on everything as if his tour was Eurovision....moreover to be completely clear we have NEVER seen this type of show during the esc Grand Final, NEVER, and the general public doesn't care, they won't know about Vasil 4 years ago in one semi, and about Dotter in Melfest 5 years ago, 180 millions of people really won't know so....

  • @davidhleeds
    @davidhleeds Před 2 měsíci +1

    Hi Tom loving your videos as per usual. Do think your judgement re netherlands televite is out however. I think there are 5/6 acts unlike last year which will attract excellent tele votes therefore this will be diluted somewhat. That coupled with a lowish jury score will almost certainly mean they will not be in the top 5. I personally see it as over hype for the country . Let's see what happens. Kind regards David. Leeds uk

  • @Tianda1111
    @Tianda1111 Před 2 měsíci +1

    Finland is crowing, unique🔥🇫🇮

  • @JohnWroughton
    @JohnWroughton Před 2 měsíci +1

    I totally get how Albania's has been such a 'climber'. I hope Georgia qualifies. In the 'middle group', it surprised me to see Slovenia so far down the list. Austria outside of top ten? Belgium's comes across to me as overly 'melodramatic', particularly with its rather repetitive (and melodramatic) ending. I am not getting Ukraine's high ranking here even after several listens. (Perhaps it's because I'm not so fond of 'rap bridges' in a song ... which is also a minus for Switzerland's come to think of it).

  • @alfonsstekebrugge8049
    @alfonsstekebrugge8049 Před 2 měsíci +6

    Nice analysis. I disagree on Croatia mainly. I mean it's sitting there and I've seen the song a couple of times and there's just no song there. Pro move is to bank on Italy here. It has that Stromae sound that's a proven quantity all over Europe except for the Anglosphere and she performs it with similar gusto. Juries should like it if they aren't told to overrate boring radio pop like last year and the televote should be a given.

  • @lolsaXx
    @lolsaXx Před 2 měsíci

    Netherlands, Switzerland and Croatia. My top 3.

  • @CallistoTheWarriorQueen
    @CallistoTheWarriorQueen Před 2 měsíci +2

    I think Australia will all come down to Staging and Live performance, like we usually do. The lyric clip doesnt give us much and Electric Fields are amazing live performers. I think they may do well with juries if they qualify.

  • @russell10
    @russell10 Před 2 měsíci +4

    The more I hear Switzerland the more I think it could really stand out and win. Bound to be very successful with the jury votes, televote appeal is also going to be solid.
    I think Croatia will win the televote but they need a good lead to win the title…

  • @jonckheerebart9002
    @jonckheerebart9002 Před měsícem

    Mustii 😍😍😍😍

  • @enismehmeti235
    @enismehmeti235 Před 2 měsíci +5

    You have Croatia who is a banger from the first seconds you hear the song - you love it, on the other hand you have Netherlands who you hear for first time you skip it untill you hear it 100 times and then you like it, how can compere them if we know that people as you said will be hearing these songs for first time on semi finals - Croatia is 100% televote winner - juries will decide will he win or not in the end, I would like Croatia, Switzerlan or Netherlands to win

  • @tonyttt31
    @tonyttt31 Před 2 měsíci +4

    I'm currently of the opinion that Croatia won't be winning because The Netherlands will put a big dent in their televote. I think it could be like 2019 with no one getting more than 300 in the televote because of how many televote friendly songs there are this year. Ukraine, Italy, Croatia and The Netherlands look like they could be the top 4 but Finland, Switzerland and Austria could also do very well drawing from the pool of televotes available.

  • @mikkoekstrom8678
    @mikkoekstrom8678 Před 2 měsíci +7

    Finland winning change 2%. One prosent up

  • @litey2able
    @litey2able Před 2 měsíci +10

    Am Israel Hai!

  • @jannekevanasselt8065
    @jannekevanasselt8065 Před 2 měsíci +1

    ❤ JOOST ❤ 12 points to the Netherlands

  • @Escmember2
    @Escmember2 Před 2 měsíci

    Bet tip:The best choice to bet right now is Greece. The staging of the song will be awesome and the odds will goes down after the staging reveal. Amazing price right now. Number one choice to bet 🇬🇷

  • @picspics6574
    @picspics6574 Před 2 měsíci +4

    Nice analyse netherlands for the win ❤

  • @MarkusHuus
    @MarkusHuus Před 2 měsíci

    Netherlands will be climbing more and will smash on staging performance!

  • @labro2014
    @labro2014 Před 2 měsíci +6

    The winner is Greece 🇬🇷 this year!!! I love this song!!!! 💓💓💓

    • @MrTomyxl
      @MrTomyxl Před 2 měsíci

      after Croatia sorry

  • @nathanhubball
    @nathanhubball Před 2 měsíci +4

    If Estonia shock NQ then I'll take everything I've said back about this being the best year😂

    • @logi-a
      @logi-a Před 2 měsíci +1

      The contest isn’t necessary about winning, it’s about the songs

    • @nathanhubball
      @nathanhubball Před 2 měsíci

      @@logi-a i know it was a joke, just shows what a competitive year it is

  • @mbay638
    @mbay638 Před 2 měsíci +3

    I found out at the My Eurovision Scoreboard app an interesting theory about the winner!
    Since 2016 when the televoting was introduced for the first time, every country who won the Eurovision since 2016 until now (according to the My Eurovision Scoreboard App) was number 1, 2 or number 6!
    So that probably means that Croatia probably won’t win this year. And if you look at the countries which are number 1, 2 or number 6 then it’s Italy, Switzerland or Lithuania who could win this year.
    If you look deeper to countries which are placed at number 3 in the app (which is Croatia this year) then it means that the best scenario that it will become 2nd in the grand final or lower!
    Like France did in 2021 when they came 3rd at the My Eurovision Scoreboard App but ended 2nd in the Grand Final!
    But still some spots could be changed in the top 10 of the My Eurovision Scoreboard App!

    • @trildi
      @trildi Před 2 měsíci +1

      Switzerland or Lithuania, no problem with that. Go Silvester🥳

    • @TheManInBlueFlames
      @TheManInBlueFlames Před 2 měsíci +2

      Normally who is number one DOESNT win though. Normally it's the 2nd or third placer but Croatia could easily go 2nd with it's close result.

    • @mbay638
      @mbay638 Před 2 měsíci

      @TheManInBlueFlames, I never said the Number One always wins. Just read the description one more time please!

    • @MrTomyxl
      @MrTomyxl Před 2 měsíci +1

      😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
      The big expert💩

    • @yoshi8theberries398
      @yoshi8theberries398 Před 2 měsíci +1

      “Italy Switzerland or Lithuania”
      Manifesting that you are correct, manifesting that this happens, considering selling my soul to get this result (especially Lithuania I need them to get their best ever result this year)

  • @ehayoun50
    @ehayoun50 Před 2 měsíci +5

    My favourites are Italy, France, Israel and Luxenberg.❤

  • @MCVEvoseti
    @MCVEvoseti Před 2 měsíci +3

    Uk in 11th isn’t that bad at all ;)

  • @a.liepins
    @a.liepins Před 2 měsíci +1

    Trust me, noone went to the odds and said Albania suddently can win, it was probably from Albania's team to bring awareness to the revamp.

  • @renesebel4794
    @renesebel4794 Před 2 měsíci

    I love The Netherlands
    My number one
    He will climbing very high
    ❤❤❤❤❤❤

  • @crillelundh
    @crillelundh Před 2 měsíci +6

    this was the first i have seen about the odds and it seems my predictions was pretty far off(except for number one).
    I still have some songs i havent heard yet and i havent seen any song more than once BUT to me it seemed like there was really only 2 possible winners this year, Croatia or Norway.
    obviously it seems many agree on Croatia but im really surprised to see Norway that far down, and i feel like i can almost guarantee a better placement than 14, cant really see any chance that its not top 5 to be honest. Sweden is probably spot on, somewhere between 8-13, pretty good for such a bad song lol. Netherlands i suspect will be around 6-10, high but i cant see it top 5.

    • @inesxyq
      @inesxyq Před 2 měsíci +2

      I totally agree.I just love Norway !

    • @acuredreamgift
      @acuredreamgift Před 2 měsíci

      Love Norway, but no way it does great in the voting unfortunately. I have a feeling about Serbia though, I feel it will surprise everyone

  • @thesnesgeek
    @thesnesgeek Před 2 měsíci

    I wished Cyprus went Minus one in the odds

  • @johannes_floehr
    @johannes_floehr Před 2 měsíci +5

    I just need Estonia in the final, please guys!

  • @maurizio8371
    @maurizio8371 Před 2 měsíci +1

    Angelina mango super fantastica total 🇮🇹

  • @lenagoncalveslena-yx2es
    @lenagoncalveslena-yx2es Před 2 měsíci

    Portugal ❤❤❤soo beautiful song ❤❤❤and Sérvia too ❤goo Iolanda ❤

  • @CasualUmami
    @CasualUmami Před 2 měsíci

    1994!!!!! was the last host win

  • @krisfruyt8616
    @krisfruyt8616 Před 2 měsíci

    Once the rehearsals start, Belgium will climb

  • @healthytrout
    @healthytrout Před 2 měsíci +1

    Ukr here, I am really hoping for Ukrainian revamp. The song hassssss to get more interesting. It's kind of mid but full of potential at the moment. LIke I'd like to hear more of "magic incantations" from the beginning of the song throughout the song. I also don't like how Alyona Alyona feels like supporting act of Jerry's song. It does not look like a good collab at the moment. Idk just change smth pleeasssseeee

    • @ESCTom
      @ESCTom  Před 2 měsíci +2

      yea i absolutely love the first minute, and especially when the beat first drops. but then i dont think theres much more wow towards the end of the song

    • @healthytrout
      @healthytrout Před 2 měsíci +1

      @@ESCTom yup, it need something. Jerry has her go at ESC now, she was competing for it for few years now. It's strange how mid it is