🔮 Semi-Final 1 Qualifier Predictions & ANALYSIS | Eurovision 2024

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  • čas přidán 1. 06. 2024
  • I go through SF1 of Eurovision 2024 and say which 10 countries I think could make it to the Grand Final of Eurovision 2024, at this moment before rehearsals.
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    Timestamps:
    0:00 Intro
    2:01 Ukraine
    3:06 Croatia
    3:57 Finland
    5:15 Moldova
    6:23 Lithuania
    7:40 Poland
    9:17 Iceland
    11:07 Serbia
    12:59 Australia
    15:20 Azerbaijan
    16:54 Ireland
    19:05 Cyprus
    23:23 Portugal
    24:43 Luxembourg
    26:39 Slovenia
    27:58 Wrap up
    Check out my other videos:
    My Eurovision 2023 Top 37:
    • My Top 37 - Eurovision...
    Top 44 Countries in Eurovision:
    • Top 44 Countries in Eu...
    Eurovision 2023 Grand Final Analysis: Part 1:
    • Eurovision 2023's plac...
    Eurovision 2023 Grand Final Analysis: Part 1:
    • The Ultimate Eurovisio...
    Eurovision 2023 Grand Final Analysis: Part 3:
    • Eurovision 2023 Grand ...
    Eurovision Hearts: Thanks to Smthngnw on Wikipedia
    Outro Screen Music:
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    Music provided by Vlog No Copyright Music.
    Video Link: • MBB - Feel Good (Vlog No Copyright Music)
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Komentáře • 350

  • @sillygoose-3000
    @sillygoose-3000 Před měsícem +151

    im ready for the ”toms giant white board gets gradually bigger in every video until it takes over the whole channel” arc

    • @ESCTom
      @ESCTom  Před měsícem +14

      SPOILER!

    • @tomesc2787
      @tomesc2787 Před měsícem +5

      Can't believe we're already at that point in the eurovision season omg

  • @JavierMartinez-vb6pf
    @JavierMartinez-vb6pf Před měsícem +139

    The grass touching is hilarious lol

    • @DarkFlareGC
      @DarkFlareGC Před měsícem +3

      This was my favourite bit 🤣

    • @hippopotamusbosch
      @hippopotamusbosch Před měsícem +5

      I prefer to tell people to “calm down”. It seems to make even more angry.

  • @MalenaCPH
    @MalenaCPH Před měsícem +121

    My 12 points go to ESC Tom. I enjoy your videos so much.

  • @saudade_saudade977
    @saudade_saudade977 Před měsícem +41

    Portugal, Serbia and Slovenia are all in my top 7 😭🫶

    • @martinacerne8499
      @martinacerne8499 Před měsícem +8

      Yessssss. Go Slovenia!❤

    • @chris_1103
      @chris_1103 Před měsícem +7

      Yeah, same here. Serbia 1st, Slovenia 2nd and Portugal 6th. I'm worried...

    • @thalassophile_artist
      @thalassophile_artist Před měsícem

      same here, I really want all 3 to qualify. We need more quality songs in the final. This is turning into a circus...

    • @martinacerne8499
      @martinacerne8499 Před měsícem +4

      @@thalassophile_artistGritto , Ramonda and Veronika are all very beautiful songs, excellent vocals. I am very concerned. It all depends on televoting.🙏

  • @lunamagnoona1788
    @lunamagnoona1788 Před měsícem +34

    I think if Slovenia doesn't qualify I'll break out in tears, but the points you raised are totally valid, I hope people see it for how cool it is

  • @neilwaldock6272
    @neilwaldock6272 Před měsícem +29

    I agree about Australia. Electric Fields is the entry we've seen the least from this year, and they are great on stage, so when we finally see the song live I think a lot of people will see its potential. Montagne didn't go to Europe because Australia had an EXTREMELY tight Covid quarantine, so it would have been difficult for them to come back. For a couple of years, Australia and NZ were virtually cut off from the rest of the world. Love the Guatemala soccer shirt, it looks great on you!

    • @KylieWilson
      @KylieWilson Před měsícem +7

      I lived in NZ for the first year of the pandemic, I dunno if it was the same in Australia, but anyone who arrived in the country had to be holed up in a hotel room in isolation for two weeks before being allowed to join the general public, so yeah I don’t blame SBS for not wanting to go through all that rigmarole

    • @neilwaldock6272
      @neilwaldock6272 Před měsícem +6

      @@KylieWilson Yes, the same in Australia. Also very limited flights.

  • @farmerpickless
    @farmerpickless Před měsícem +66

    Ireland is quite high in the odds, but at the moment I just want them to break their NQ streak and qualify.

    • @thesnesgeek
      @thesnesgeek Před měsícem +1

      The same with Latvia.

    • @florenna
      @florenna Před měsícem +4

      @@thesnesgeek Not with that song.

    • @yodenman
      @yodenman Před měsícem

      Totally agree. Along with Moldova and Finland are the songs I always skip.​@@florenna

  • @zwelfbungt
    @zwelfbungt Před měsícem +46

    Side-note about Ukraine: In 2012, they were a Televote NQ and in fact it was the closest they've ever got to non-qualification.

  • @evan.6397
    @evan.6397 Před měsícem +52

    Honestly I could totally see a world where Luxembourg NQ's. They're definately going to make a big deal about Luxembourg being back, but that could set it up so that when people hear it for the first time the public will be like 'Oh. That's it?'. I can definitely see people being underwhelmed, considering the Luxembourg Comeback Hype

    • @AW-EV-and-FTM
      @AW-EV-and-FTM Před měsícem +3

      I wonder if Luxembourg is going to have incredible staging in order to up their chances.

    • @gameotaku900
      @gameotaku900 Před měsícem +1

      The song is plenty catchy though and last in the running order 😢

    • @TrainsVision26
      @TrainsVision26 Před měsícem +2

      I do think Luxembourg is qualifying

  • @florenna
    @florenna Před měsícem +16

    So happy that you (too) believe in Finland, despite all the haters! ☺ Don't know why so many fans just love to hate on it, it's utterly baffling, but then again, haters gonna hate, no matter what 😉 But OTOH, there are so many who love it, too. You're so right in all the reasons, plus it is 4th in odds to qualify, after all.

    • @ESCTom
      @ESCTom  Před měsícem +4

      you can only vote FOR in the televote, so the haters dont really count 🤷🏻‍♂️

    • @florenna
      @florenna Před měsícem +5

      @@ESCTom Exactly! 😄 It's just been quite painful to have our entry so hated (by fans) this year, in such a contrast to last year... 😟

  • @laurajuric5814
    @laurajuric5814 Před měsícem +30

    I need all of three EX-YU countries in grand final. They all bring special moments. Croatia, Serbia and Slovenia all the way 🇭🇷🇷🇸🇸🇮

    • @SANDRICA252
      @SANDRICA252 Před měsícem +1

      So U know what to do ... Just vote for right song

  • @janep1347
    @janep1347 Před měsícem +21

    Portugal, Serbia, and Azerbaijan are in my top 5 this year, I really hope they make it 🇷🇸🇵🇹🇦🇿

  • @alankirby1353
    @alankirby1353 Před měsícem +7

    Electric fields is a dark horse …. Seeing them preform live in Oz and their lack of appearance at any of the pre parties I honestly think they are underrated

  • @fazza84
    @fazza84 Před měsícem +28

    I think Slovenia, Serbia and Croatia being in the same semi gives me more confidence in qualification. Poland live might be questionable, however they do have the diaspora. So many variables here. Moldova does not have much support from the delegation and will not have dancers based on what is being said online. No way of verifying that.
    I'm predicting Croatia, Lithuania, Ukraine, Slovenia, Serbia, Ireland, Australia, Luxomberg, Finland, Cyprus

  • @EurovisionExpat
    @EurovisionExpat Před měsícem +8

    I have a feeling that, even though we have all 3 ex-Yugoslav countries in this semifinal, either Serbia or Slovenia (or maybe even both 😬) is going to get left behind. I think Serbia might actually be the more likely NQ of the two, though, because I don't really see casual viewers going for Ramonda over Veronika.

  • @DarkFlareGC
    @DarkFlareGC Před měsícem +46

    Already watched this over on patreon 😉 stopping by again to make sure to add a like and view for that pesky algorithm

  • @erinnadia0409
    @erinnadia0409 Před měsícem +25

    lol my Ireland bias exists too but this is the first time as an Irish fan I actually get to feel excited about our entry! I think Bambie will make it to the final!

  • @dv2483
    @dv2483 Před měsícem +15

    I'll be sad if Raiven doesn't make it. I hope we get all 3 female ballads (Ukraine has its own niche for me). If we're not getting the first 7, I'm the most worried for Ireland and Cyprus, actually. Poland and Serbia have friends and diaspora which is important at the borderline...

  • @LeviTheCutest
    @LeviTheCutest Před měsícem +9

    I'm hopeful for slovenia. i love the song but the pre-party footage of raiven showed just how much charisma she has and i think that's going to put her across the sad red line. i don't think her presence really comes across in the music video.

  • @weronika152
    @weronika152 Před měsícem +5

    there's something junior eurovision about luxebourg's national final performance and song to me. totally wouldn't be surprised if it doesn't qualify but wouldn't be shocked if it qualifies from 9th or 10th place. when it comes to portugal and serbia i feel like only one of them will qualify? we'll see

  • @andrewmead1298
    @andrewmead1298 Před měsícem +22

    I’m giving my top marks to Australia
    Slovenia and Cyprus in the hope that it helps them get to the Final🤞

  • @alycecollett5022
    @alycecollett5022 Před měsícem +7

    Love your work as usual Tom! I just wanted to point out though that Australia weren't at the contest in person in 2021 because they literally weren't allowed to leave the country at the time. Due to government policy Australians needed to get permission to leave the country during Covid, and it was near impossible to get those permits

  • @EuroDai
    @EuroDai Před měsícem +6

    At last, Tom's whiteboard season - Eurovision is just around the corner now!

    • @ESCTom
      @ESCTom  Před měsícem +3

      Whiteboard = means business

  • @ThaGamingMisfit
    @ThaGamingMisfit Před měsícem +18

    Slovenia not going through would really break my heart. Raiven has the best female voice this year, no discussion.I would even be demotivated watching the final if she's not in there, I just don't understand the low interest for this song, it's my number 2 song this year. I gladly trade this for the likes of Australia, Cyprus or Luxembourg which offer nothing anywhere special as Raiven. Serbia's song sounds so much weaker than Slovenia to me too. But this semi final will be so close and hearts will be broken, Portugal going out woudl also make me feel sad. I love the Azerbaidjan song but I realize it doesn't have much chance in this madness.

    • @SANDRICA252
      @SANDRICA252 Před měsícem +2

      Totally agree with you I love 🇸🇮 song, vocal is the best so she must go through or it will break my ❤

  • @melindamuller4466
    @melindamuller4466 Před měsícem +18

    I really hope that Ireland, San Marino and Luxembourg all qualify this year; they all deserve this, and they are doing something new (or just returning to the competition)

  • @TheWisePenny
    @TheWisePenny Před měsícem +3

    Didn't mention it these last 2 months but I'm so glad it's eurovision season again and that I can watch your video's again!

  • @kimslice9993
    @kimslice9993 Před měsícem +1

    Yayyy we are close now! Can’t wait to see your analysis of the rehearsals 😊

  • @nobodyimportant281
    @nobodyimportant281 Před měsícem +38

    I'll definitely be voting for Bambie in the semi! I need this Icon in the final so much! ❤😭

    • @aekelly
      @aekelly Před měsícem +6

      Me too! I love them. I've seen a lot of close-minded reaction to them, but then again a lot of folks who appreciated their originality - so I'm just hoping really hard. I"d love it if their staging was unlike anything anyone's ever seen before and it put them over the top to win!

  • @WriterLilyth
    @WriterLilyth Před měsícem +14

    Thank you for being one of the few CZcams pundits giving Australia some love!

  • @19jenbob
    @19jenbob Před měsícem +4

    Yay - magnets and prediction time!
    You do make me laugh - touch grass and whiteboard takeover. 😂 Have a fabulous time in Malmo. The stage /lighting looks fantastic.

  • @mypondlife
    @mypondlife Před měsícem +5

    I need to get Ireland and Australia this year. It's a need at this point.

  • @RuddeyBoy90
    @RuddeyBoy90 Před měsícem +3

    Love your videos!
    And great shirt again! 😁
    Greetings from the Netherlands.

  • @ido_cohen
    @ido_cohen Před měsícem +14

    SF1 is definitely unpredictable, too many borderlines. My predictions change frequently. As for now they are:
    1. Croatia
    2. Ukraine
    3. Lithuania
    4. Serbia
    5. Cyprus
    6. Luxembourg
    7. Slovenia
    8. Ireland
    9. Portugal
    10. Finland
    11. Poland
    12. Azerbaijan
    13. Australia
    14. Iceland
    15. Moldova

  • @tonyttt31
    @tonyttt31 Před měsícem +3

    Great video, Tom. Always classy and relevant.

  • @bosko41
    @bosko41 Před měsícem +1

    Good work(as always) Tom 👏🏻
    Love your new board 😅

  • @JanBors
    @JanBors Před měsícem +2

    I just started and double like just for this grass!!! amazing :D

  • @zsokapados5197
    @zsokapados5197 Před měsícem +20

    Great video as always! I think Serbia is a likely yes minimum if we speak about qualifying. People always underestimate them, but I wouldn't be surpised, if they will qualify even something like 5th. Serbia is doing really great with tele usually and this can stand out even on 2nd. Portugal, Slovenia or even Ireland are in more of a danger.

  • @mikeshinnors4261
    @mikeshinnors4261 Před měsícem +1

    Great video Tom....well done keep up the savage work

  • @ianadam3393
    @ianadam3393 Před měsícem +4

    tom i want to say thankyou for the video of the eurovision content creators

    • @ESCTom
      @ESCTom  Před měsícem

      ❤️🙏🏻

  • @tayla-raemcgregor3192
    @tayla-raemcgregor3192 Před měsícem +11

    My favourite Eurovision analyses and breakdowns! I really hope that Australia doesn’t let us down with the staging. The song is such a grower… I keep getting it stuck in my head ❤

  • @algrave
    @algrave Před měsícem +7

    It speaks well of the competition this year that the qualifiers are really going to be heavily determined by the stagings in Malmo. My current predictions aren't that far from yours, swapping Slovenia for Cyprus.

  • @VigoJ
    @VigoJ Před měsícem +7

    Definite Qualifiers - Croatia and Ukraine
    Likely Qualifiers - Lithuania and Finland
    Borderline Qualifiers - Ireland, Luxembourg, Serbia, Slovenia, Australia, Poland
    Borderline Non-Qualifiers - Cyprus, Portugal
    Likely Non-Qualifiers - Moldova
    Definite Non-Qualifiers - Iceland and Azerbaijan
    It's all going to depend on the stage performance, very difficult semi to predict. Poland has a lot of diaspora voting potential which I think will push it over the line to be honest. I think either Cyprus or Luxembourg are definitely qualifying but only one of them make it, there will be a narrative pushed about Luxembourg and the running order is good for them. Slovenia will depend on their staging I've heard there's budget issues possibly which would hurt their chances massively as I am sure Veronika has so many plans and ideas but would require financial backing, if Slovenia don't bring a good stage performance then I can't see them qualifying. I also struggle to see a world where both Portugal AND Serbia qualify, one of them is making it at best. I see potential for a telemoveis moment with Ireland, it's one of my personal favourites but it just might be too much for the average Eurovision viewer and be off-putting. Making these predictions before the rehearsals is basically impossible but still quite fun but that's where I sit currently.

  • @andytarver263
    @andytarver263 Před měsícem

    Well done Tom
    Another great video,
    Well put together.

  • @Jakumata
    @Jakumata Před měsícem +9

    Excellent analysis! I will be able to vote in this semi and my votes will go to Portugal and Slovenia and probably Bambie depending on the night. my favourite (Croatia) is anyway Q. My heart is just melting every time I hear Grito. And I am so dead certain actually that people are sleeping on her. It reminds me a lot on the initial underwhelming response aija got last year and then people started to love it more and more. 😅

    • @ESCTom
      @ESCTom  Před měsícem +2

      i 100% approve of that voting! all 3 of those need your help

    • @sarafreitas5931
      @sarafreitas5931 Před 28 dny

      Thanks a lot from Portugal. ❤

  • @escziva69
    @escziva69 Před měsícem +12

    I think Slovenia and Luxembourg will qualify instead of Cyprus and Portugal

  • @stevenoldham8035
    @stevenoldham8035 Před měsícem +3

    I think Azerbaijan will do well with the ROW vote - it may well be their highest score. Could make the difference. I'd like to see them qualify, I think juries are likely to reward it more than televote.

  • @reisberg88
    @reisberg88 Před měsícem +1

    Great insightful video. Love your fun yet super professional analysis ❤

    • @ESCTom
      @ESCTom  Před měsícem +1

      thank you Reisberg ❤️

    • @reisberg88
      @reisberg88 Před měsícem

      @@ESCTom you're welcome 🙏🏼 I always learn something new or get a new perspective

  • @colettemarchington8724
    @colettemarchington8724 Před měsícem

    Totally agree with all of your comments Tom. Luxembourg might slip through as they are a returner but it is a song we’d hear in the contest in the 2007-2010 era.

  • @onidii
    @onidii Před měsícem +2

    I agree with your list, the only thing i would change is Slovenia and Luxembourg qualifying (I'm really hopeful that Slovenia will have a good staging, and i think Luxembourg's running order and return are going to help it quality). I would probably change them with Australia and one of Portugal or Cyprus, so all from your borderline yesses haha.

    • @SANDRICA252
      @SANDRICA252 Před měsícem +2

      I would also vote for Slovenia others are safe anyway and she deserve to go through or it never will if she don't make it with this song which is masterpiece💯

  • @SoyChicoToxico
    @SoyChicoToxico Před měsícem

    thanks for the analysis! I very much agree with almost everything you have said! I see Portugal more outside than inside, and the Slovenia / Serbia / Poland block is the one that generates the most doubts in me

  • @SirBarKer
    @SirBarKer Před měsícem +22

    Why can't I vote in this SF 😭😭 I wanna vote for Benelux-buddy Luxembourg, guilty pleasure Bambie Thug and the gorgeous Ramonda!! They need to qualify! (in my opinion)

    • @aurelb5412
      @aurelb5412 Před měsícem +1

      I think you still can🤔 not from your country tho, from the world vote ig

  • @MadameChristie
    @MadameChristie Před měsícem +13

    I'd put Slovenia over Cyprus personally, just because I suspect Raiven will kill with the staging

  • @anteglibota9411
    @anteglibota9411 Před měsícem +9

    Slovenian will surprise you

  • @nikolag.-rb5ql
    @nikolag.-rb5ql Před měsícem +9

    Finally magnets again😃😃. Yes, this is incredibly open and only 4 of them (🇭🇷🇺🇦🇫🇮🇱🇹) are sure bets for Q. I would personally really like that Slovenia🇸🇮, Portugal🇵🇹 and Azerbaijan🇦🇿 Q, but if 2/3 of them Q i would also be happy, cause it's quite unlikely that all three would make it. I would also put Australia 🇦🇺 and Cyprus🇨🇾 out as borderline NO and Luxembourg🇱🇺 and Slovenia🇸🇮 in as borderline YES. This is my differences compared to you. So my predicted Q are Croatia🇭🇷 (winner of this semi), Ukraine 🇺🇦, Finland 🇫🇮, Lithuania 🇱🇹, Serbia🇷🇸, Ireland 🇮🇪, Poland🇵🇱, Portugal🇵🇹, Luxembourg🇱🇺 and Slovenia🇸🇮. And i think that Moldova🇲🇩 and Iceland 🇮🇸 are probably definitely NQ.
    Great video and can't wait for a new portion of magnets. 😁😁😁

  • @victorlenoble6643
    @victorlenoble6643 Před měsícem +2

    I don't know when you shot the video, but Australia has been the tenth qualifier in the odds for more than a week, with Slovenia and Portugal close behind, but behind on all betting providers.

  • @tacothealien9805
    @tacothealien9805 Před měsícem +17

    Portugal + Serbia Q = taste

    • @florenna
      @florenna Před měsícem +1

      Oh please stop blathering about "taste"... As if your opinion was somehow "better" than others. Plus both are very low in odds, both lower than 20th, which says something about their quality...

    • @tacothealien9805
      @tacothealien9805 Před měsícem +2

      @@florenna when did I ever say my opinion was better than others all I was saying was that I liked that he put Serbia and Portugal as qualifiers because those two are my favs

    • @tacothealien9805
      @tacothealien9805 Před 25 dny

      @@florenna look who’s talking now 😘

  • @erinnadia0409
    @erinnadia0409 Před měsícem +3

    I loved Gustaph from day one and knew he would go to the final, but it was such a pleasant surprise when he made top ten! It was probably the highlight of the whole contest for me, I also think the Gustaph effect is in this year because we have a lot of "nostalgia/dated" songs this year ❤

  • @rodsunduri3941
    @rodsunduri3941 Před měsícem +4

    I agree with your predictions, but I’d swap Poland with Slovenia, because I don’t think Luna’s live performance will stand out as much in terms of both voice quality and visuals, because it’s a very basic song, in my opinion.

  • @gal18jagodic12
    @gal18jagodic12 Před měsícem +6

    SLOVENIA FOR THE FINAL ❤️💙🤍🧝🏻‍♀️👑

  • @aekelly
    @aekelly Před měsícem +6

    I'm so happy to hear you are optimistic about Bambie Thug! They are so different, and I love their stage presence and the way they mix up genres - just the most unique thing I've seen in a while and I love them! (Another CZcamsr I'm fond of has them in the non-qualifying column, but they're more conservative in their tastes I think). And Electric Fields - just crossing my fingers that their staging will be as top-notch as usual. They're charismatic performers too.

  • @Xenon_568
    @Xenon_568 Před měsícem

    It will be interesting to see how the 'breaks' that the Big 5 create in the running order will affect the result. Personally I would have put 2 automatic qualifiers in the first halve, since it is so packed with more likely qualifiers

  • @lachysims6327
    @lachysims6327 Před měsícem +11

    Completely agree with Australia qualifying, I've got plenty of confidence in our ability to stage and Electric Fields ability to perform, people will come to appreciate the song after the contest for sure

  • @citizensallianceofaustrali697

    Concise, comprehensive and very well presented video. I am not sure if it is great minds thinking alike, but I am in total agreement with your views. I also think that having the automatic entries perform in the semi final, will be a huge influence on the televoting for the other entries. And you are correct any one of the borderline entries success will depend on the staging and presentation. My home land need to incorporate indigenous cultural elements in the staging to stand out, as both their vocals are fine and the song is solid.

    • @ESCTom
      @ESCTom  Před měsícem

      Thank you 🙏🏻

  • @erinnadia0409
    @erinnadia0409 Před měsícem +22

    I have a lot of faith in Australia, they will qualify! EF are incredible live. ❤

    • @AW-EV-and-FTM
      @AW-EV-and-FTM Před měsícem +6

      I hope so!!! They are grate

    • @florenna
      @florenna Před měsícem +1

      But the song is dull as dishwater...

    • @sav0001
      @sav0001 Před měsícem

      @@florenna You literally stan Finland, which is objectively one of the worst songs we have this year, so....

  • @pinkfuzzysocks1949
    @pinkfuzzysocks1949 Před měsícem +3

    I agree that this semi-final has 4 safe qualifiers, and I change my borderline ins/outs every time I do predictions (unlike SF2 where I'm pretty locked on like 8 or 9 of them lol). Serbia, Portugal and Australia will probably do well with juries if they make it through. but i think they have a chance even without juries in the semi. and i just feel like Cyprus is too "generic" to advance, but that might be own bias against the song lol

  • @JakobESC
    @JakobESC Před měsícem +1

    You literally had the same problems like me with this prediction😭 I thought about it for like 2 hours calculated all the points from 1-12 that would come from each country, changed it over and over, just to realize that i qualified the first 7 songs so i had to change it all again. In the end I decided that the 2 borderline no picks in my opinion would be Australia and Cyprus, but I can totally see Slovenia or Luxembourg NQ'ing. I would still put Serbia (due to 3 Balkan countries voting) and Poland (quite big diaspora, always good at televote) as likely qualifier

    • @ESCTom
      @ESCTom  Před měsícem +2

      yea i just cant see ALL 7 of the first songs qualifying, it just breaks too many "qualifying" traditions at once

  • @sarahenchanted
    @sarahenchanted Před měsícem +10

    i touched the grass on my screen i hope you're proud
    I can't explain why but I'm becoming very confident in Ireland qualifying. Bambie is extremely charismatic on stage and like you said, people who support it will pick up the phone and those who don't will vote for something else and anything is possible.
    I think the issue with Fighter is Tali typically does slower indie songs and I don't think she quite has the charisma to perform an upbeat girly bop. I am leaning toward Luxembourg qualifying but it might end up getting 10th place.

  • @zebras54
    @zebras54 Před měsícem +2

    love the magnets

  • @zapre6029
    @zapre6029 Před měsícem +4

    I like to see you struggling :) sweet. And it should be so! It would be very boring to be sure in advance...
    A thought: people who think Raiven song is boring is because they need songs that reach them, excite them, make them cry. Veronika does nothing of that. It pulls you in and does not let you go.. if you
    Immerse with it, the whole world opens.. that is art. She can gather pop audience with higer operetic and classical in one space, non of the other songs can do that. One guy said on youtube he can even do the head-banging with the song...
    Considering the predictions I think this year will be many surprises because as I saw many times ogae results were off and odds too! public that comes that night to watch is something else.. So let see!
    Regarding quality and authenticity of the songs I personally would put definately Cyprus, and Poland out and also Australia.. too generic! Azerbeijan and Moldova question mark. Iceland really from different time..

  • @davida3970
    @davida3970 Před měsícem

    @ESCTom do you think if Luxembourg qualifies this might convince Monaco or Andorra to return?

    • @ESCTom
      @ESCTom  Před měsícem

      hmmmmmmmmmmmmm not really. i think the bigger attraction for them would be the slightly preferential treatment LUX seem to be getting this year

  • @henriikkak2091
    @henriikkak2091 Před měsícem +1

    Genuinely surprised by the Finland ranking 😮😅

  • @PinkBread14
    @PinkBread14 Před měsícem +13

    ITS FINALLY HERE!!!!!!!
    Anyway, im thinking Iceland,Moldova,Azerbaijan,Cyprus and unfortunately, portugal are missing out

  • @WannabeBackbencher
    @WannabeBackbencher Před měsícem +5

    I’d swap Poland and Slovenia for sure.

  • @NeilRedknap
    @NeilRedknap Před měsícem +2

    I think Poland has a dream draw of voting friends. A country you didn't mention that they also have is Ukraine. With Ukraine, the UK, Ireland, and Lithuania voting in their semi, I think Poland is a very likely qualifier. I think they will also receive points from Germany, and even a few from Iceland, as Poles make up the largest ethnic minority there.
    Love the Guatemala football shirt! Guatemala is in the same football confederation (CONCACAF) that I'm from. All the best from Canada, Tom!

  • @jimmey123XD
    @jimmey123XD Před měsícem +2

    I'd switch Luxembourg and Slovenia with Ireland and Cyprus. 😇

  • @maikkert1863
    @maikkert1863 Před měsícem +6

    I heard on a podcast that Natalia Barbu from Moldova didn't get the support from the deligation and she will be alone on stage. If this is true, then it is a 100% non-qualifier. The Podcast is Ding-A-Dong, but it is in Dutch, so I doubt that you will understand it. I won't say that everything is true, but in the Podcast, they say that Natalia said it herself

    • @ESCTom
      @ESCTom  Před měsícem +2

      Yeah, if she’s on her own, then I don’t see how they could save this

    • @Jakumata
      @Jakumata Před měsícem

      If heard she is working with a technology business in Romania though and see them pulling another of their "budget but really good looking stagings". I bet on ai involment or some video magic at this point ^^ still think it's nq though

  • @jonathanv9526
    @jonathanv9526 Před měsícem +3

    Completely off topic. Tom your Guatemala Football shirt is sick, looks so good on you!

  • @trao1938
    @trao1938 Před měsícem +1

    I've been following Eurovision since 2014, and this is the FIRST YEAR that I CANNOT GET a READ on WHICH SONGS I either LIKE or can predict will DO WELL in their semis. I know which songs I LOVE, but then there's a much bigger POOL of songs that I lseem to enjoy almost equally.
    There's also a SLEW of girly-bops and girly-ballads,, and surprisingly I enjoy almost ALL of them. But even if you put a gun to my head, I couldn't give you an honest or definitive ranking for ANY of them.Too many of the songs in this year's contest are equally good. Not great.. but good.
    Long story short- I sincerely believe that this year, the staging and live performances will be more of a determining factor (than ever before) in who goes through to the finals. Excellent staging could make a 'good' song brilliant. With the exception of Croatia and Switzerland, I don't think anyone is a sure bet to advance, including Ukraine. This is a a year when 1 or 2 darkhorses could conceivably emerge out of nowhere and seriously challenge the predicted frontrunners.Over the next two weeks we could see some major game changers. (My semi 1 faves right now are Croatia, Lithuania, and Azerbaijan.)

  • @erbi3853
    @erbi3853 Před měsícem

    Really interested in hearing your thoughts about Azerbaijan after the first rehearsal, I was personally blown away even by the little they showed us for now! 😳

  • @vladd896
    @vladd896 Před měsícem

    I was surprised you didn't put Ireland to "likely yes" after the speech you provided (and borderline row alteady felt a bit cluttered). But maybe that's my wishful thinking having them top 2

    • @ESCTom
      @ESCTom  Před měsícem

      realistically theyre 4th in the running order, and we have a 4 non qualification streak and we've qualified 1 time in 9 years.
      Ill put them up in the rehearsals are good

  • @gavindoyle692
    @gavindoyle692 Před měsícem +1

    Where do you get your national magnets from Tom?

    • @Jakumata
      @Jakumata Před měsícem

      He said before he had them custom made in china when he was living there. 😊

  • @TrainsVision26
    @TrainsVision26 Před měsícem +4

    I don't think Cyprus will qualify, they haven't got many close voting allies in this semi, meanwhile Slovenia has with Croatia, Ukraine, Poland and Serbia

  • @LinnieCat
    @LinnieCat Před měsícem +3

    Slovenia ❤️😭

  • @stevenkendall3092
    @stevenkendall3092 Před měsícem +4

    I think if Slovenia and Croatia were in SF2 you would say Serbia as NQ is a no brainer.

  • @kyleclare8570
    @kyleclare8570 Před měsícem

    Where did you get those magnets??? And can I get them in the US???

    • @ESCTom
      @ESCTom  Před měsícem

      i got mine in china, you might be able to get them in Etsy

  • @oehlbormturn
    @oehlbormturn Před měsícem +9

    I was about to listen to music for my workout but this will do just fine :D

  • @linzimcmaster5717
    @linzimcmaster5717 Před měsícem

    I think little less predictible this year with nq and q due to 3 of the aq in the running order as this throws the running order off from the "norm" so maybe tom your 7 may make it 🤷‍♀️

  • @markojovanovic5901
    @markojovanovic5901 Před měsícem +7

    Serbia borderline with better song then 90% of the year... yea no way. Also Servia always has amasing staging and also i feel like ireland will have good staging so those 2 are likely yes

  • @BerryFamily36
    @BerryFamily36 Před měsícem

    Where did you get the circles again

  • @VioletBeyondTheStars
    @VioletBeyondTheStars Před měsícem +8

    I think personally Ireland belongs in likely yes. Bambie is great, they have a great stage presence, song is unlike anything else. The only thing i could see getting it an nq is if vocals flop, but thats unlikely as of now

    • @myrawatters1036
      @myrawatters1036 Před měsícem +5

      Bambie will slay. 😁 grand final, here we come. 🇮🇪

    • @sinead187
      @sinead187 Před měsícem +2

      Agreed💯

  • @Elessar543
    @Elessar543 Před měsícem +4

    Saying "having those very produced, slightly ethnic songs that somehow stopped working for them" about azerbaijan is hilarious, because there were absolutely some rulechanges that were put in place to stop that very country from cheating right when they started doing worse... pure coincidence I guess

  • @tonylopez-berardinelli4689
    @tonylopez-berardinelli4689 Před měsícem +3

    I wouldn't categorize Ukraine as a ballad, since it's an ethnic song with a rapper. Slovenia is slow but edgier. Portugal and Serbia are the only true ballads and the only two similar songs that could cancel each other out

    • @ESCTom
      @ESCTom  Před měsícem

      i think mood and colour palette wise though, theres an overlap of the 4. but i agree that the strongest one is portugal and serbia

  • @cathalsheehan9596
    @cathalsheehan9596 Před měsícem

    Ireland are now 7th in the odds to qualify with the odds still shortening so eventually I suspect their Q odds will match up with their winners odds.

  • @spelaslemensek6302
    @spelaslemensek6302 Před měsícem +10

    Raiven! OMG 😢😢😢😢

  • @luckysan4653
    @luckysan4653 Před měsícem

    I really, really hope Luxembourg will make it, because it's one of my big faves this year.
    Now, for me atleast, it haven't happened that one of my faves didn't qualify yet, and it would break my heart IF thay would happen now😫

  • @thesnesgeek
    @thesnesgeek Před měsícem

    When does the semifinal 2 ranking coming?

    • @ESCTom
      @ESCTom  Před měsícem +1

      ill try and do today

  • @TrainsVision26
    @TrainsVision26 Před měsícem

    I get your point with Azerbaijan and I agree that they have not (yet) found a Plan B, I feel like this is borderline NQ, will probably end up 11-13th in the semi

  • @kv6uf
    @kv6uf Před měsícem +4

    Saying definitely yes to Finland 💙💙 I love those magnets

  • @lillecathrine
    @lillecathrine Před měsícem

    Semi 1 is so tough to call. Especially that first half. While most on paper 'should' qualify, there's a lot of question marks.
    I really hope the best for Ireland, but I do have concerns that the semi final draw might not be the best for such a divisive song. Would love to see them qualify, though! I just don't know. My other big question mark is Cyprus, which I think depends on how well Silia performs and sells it live. Last year, our Alessandra qualified 6th in the semi when performing first while taking 3rd place in the grand final televote (with a much later running order). So being first is definitely not to Cyprus' advantage unless it's a memorable number

  • @kuvattelija
    @kuvattelija Před měsícem +14

    what is my life... why im so excited about magnets 😂