The Great Decline of Europe Part I.
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- čas přidán 13. 07. 2024
- In the 1/2 part of this video series, I talk about the diminishing economic, cultural and strategic importance of Europe in the world affairs and the reasons for this state of things.
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- timestamps -
00:00 - Introduction
04:59 - Economy and Technology
21:41 - Cultural influence
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Photos used in the video and for the thumbnail:
docs.google.com/document/d/10...
Since there are quite a few comments under this video likening its content to the Whatifalthist´s videos, many of them in a positive way but some of the comments in a manner indicating that I am duplicating his work, I feel it is fair to address it. I am, of course, aware of his work, and I do enjoy it. It would be disingenuous to pretend otherwise. I am also aware that many points I am raising in this particular video, for example, the cultural emulation or share of the European GDP falling, were raised by him in his work, and I was thinking about the implications when I was working on this video since I obviously do not want to seem as a copycat of a very successful established creator. But on the other hand, I genuinely believe those points to be true, I know that I was thinking and reading about them and this whole topic years before I even knew that Whatifalthist exists, and I also believe that I can offer different perspectives and also more detailed knowledge of inner workings of Europe since I am European myself. I hope this clears things up a little bit! Thanks for all the positive comments and the constructive critique alike!
Hi kaiserbauch
Were you also aware of the work of Jean Francois Revel and his views on America and anti americanism in Europe? You made a lot of similar arguments to him; some almost parallel ones. Is this a coincidence or did you use Revel's arguments during your research?
Thanks. Great video by the way. Also kinda interested in your views on Russia. It's also anti american but of a different variant it seems.
@@bottleofwatero1 thanks!
I have to honestly admit I never heard of Revel. What similar thoughts do we have?
@@kaiserbauch9092 especially those using american tech or movies while bitching against america. Or the claim that europeans are the ones also doing the americanisation and it is voluntary. Revel died in '06 so he wouldn't mention stranger things or trump but if he is still alive, he would have said the same as you.
@@kaiserbauch9092 oh and that the anti american people always criticise america but never china, the former ussr, north korea, iran and the whatnots.
@@kaiserbauch9092 while you used stranger things ,he used Paris Disneyland as an example where America is villified or at least laughed at in France when Paris Disneyland is one of the most visited attractions in France
As an American, Europe is generally viewed kind of funnily. It's simultaneously this mythical place rich with culture, filled with people with weird accents, social safety programs, "walkable cities", beautiful nature, etc; but also the origin of evil colonialist empires, white supremacy etc. I don't remotely agree with this, but that's just the way it is. In my view, it seems like Europe simply hasn't recovered from the trauma of the Great Wars, and have essentially resigned itself under the protection of American hegemony. I've been to Europe many times throughout my life, though I'm only 21, and it seems that the average European (I hate to generalize) are these snide, atheist, hyper-rationalist types who, as you mentioned, will take any chance to shit on America whilst wading knee deep through American culture. There is no virtue in weakness. And the way world affairs seems to be heading, I think future generations are in for a rude awakening. Frankly, I could apply this very same criticism to the younger American generations as well.
I see you have been to one too many of the big cities if you find atheist, hyper-rationalist types everywhere. America is definitely more religious, but strong derision for religion tends to be more a city vs rural problem (as it happens in the US a lot as well from what I hear) rather than a US vs Europe problem.
@@hungrymusicwolf That is very true and I suppose that exposes my bias. Probably the most "rural" place I've been to are some of the villages in Switzerland. However they are popular tourist destinations, so it's possible that the "locals" I interacted with weren't truly locals. As a side note, Switzerland and Southern France are the most beautiful locations I've ever seen on this planet.
@@hyperbrug9328 That unfortunately is really bad urban legend. Colonialism and slavery exist from always. Roman Empire did it, literally every empire in the history did it. West was actually first Empire what actively start fighting with colonialism. It was "evil" Britain who as first liberated slaves and others did fallow for same reasons. Unfortunately moral hiccup make West blind on fact that they weren't the worst. What allow wannabee colonial powers like Russia and China to play on this narrative. Same is true for the great wars. But that is vastly uneven. While three dominant countries of Europe become docile, smaller countries show far more grounded approach to the social issues and risks. It is what screwed Russia in the end.
A friend of mine used to hate the US, but after working there as a researcher for a few months now wants to live there.
you're not really describing Europeans. Truth is they never talk about America ; they are too focused on Europe. As for atheism , most of the west is not actively practising religion now.. few go to church.. many more will say they are Christians though.. which is fair enough.. I dont think many hate America.. but we see your political strife which is much higher than anywhere in the rest of western world.. we see the USA is in big trouble.. and no, its not good for us. USA needs to depolarise and get some harmony back before it leads somewhere bad. Also your movie industry has been taken over by driven political ideology that is busting it.. and world history is being skewed and misrepresented in the US to try to separate society and create political leverage.
The fact you focus on colonialism.. I'm afraid... that was the way of the world in the past not just by Europe.. but by the whole world stretching back thousands and thousands of years. it didnt end until it was time for it to end.. it ended because the world was developed enough to end it. There is no point going back and judging it through modern eyes.. it was a time when a small elite ruled the lands.. ordinary folk were peasants and media was limited and highly controlled. Conquering was taking place all over the globe.. tribes would conquer other tribes.. villages other villages.. countries and kingdoms routinely fight for territory. To believe Europe had a monopoly on conquest is a total denial of human history and nature. That said Europe as the dominant power did it more extensively during the 1700-1800s .. because it so happened to be the dominant power then. In fact, the reason you are speaking English is because of that.. and the fact I used the word monopoly is because of Roman conquest thousands of years ago... but its ancient history. Someone is try to stir it up to create strife.. best not to fall for it. The worst thing you can do is fall for the white supremacy myth as well.. thats pure brainwashing.. many white people at the time of empire where themselves virtually slaves in the states that created these empires.
Instead of focusing on these countries having been part of Empire and colonialism.. celebrate the fact that for the first time in human history these were the countries that ended it and enforced that. The bottom line: europe and the broader west are the only countries today pushing solid human rights and democrasy.. some other countries have joined that way of thinking only because of the modern west. By trying to blame the west and taint it.. you are helping those powers that want to destroy that freedom and democrasy the west created in order to return to the dark times you hate.. and they love.
Romanian here, moved to Austria for a better life. I talked with young people over here, and I can feel their lack of direction. Great country in any case, but man I wished europeans would be more alive and energetic. You got a new subscriber, I like your content!
thank you!
I’m from Ohio, a state in the U.S., which is quite far away from Austria, but I feel the same thing over here. We used to be apart of the rust belt, arguably one of the most thriving places in the US, but now it seems like people have no ambition here and just want to get by with doing as little as possible. It feels like my state has lost what drive it use to have
Lack of direction? Man, you're not alone! I'm from Costa Rica and often I feel the same! 🤣 We're lost in this world... 🤪🥴
I think this is a Gen Z thing tbh.
It's the same in my state and I see the same thing happening in a few east Asian nations.
"lack of direction," seems to be something common even in the US. I am starting to wonder if it is due to religion being on the decline.
As a young Western European studying engineering in the best university in my country, I can confirm that there is a real sense of malaise. I grew up in an upper middle-class household and don't have aspirations for anything higher. I only decided to attend a prestigious institution to make it easier to gain a middle to high middle income job at a big corporation, my national government or the EU.
I feel much like how I imagine the Austrians felt before the first world war. Our economy has been outpaced by our rivals and most ambitious young people move west. But life is comfortable, I don't want anything other than to be able to read good books, to enjoys walks in beautiful parks and to enjoy a good cup of coffee. Of course the Austrians only made up a small percentage of their empire, the rest weren't so lucky.
That is a good analogy! Let´s hope there is not any Gavrilo Princip walking around to fuck it all up :D
If it rains in the West it pours in the rest of the world. Don't think for a second that people in Russia, China or the middle east are better off than in Europe. We still have the ONLY thing that matters: freedom. People who want to take down the West as the Alpha in the world have no clue what it would be like if China or Russia would be the world's only superpower.
@@gamercatsz5441 I agree completely, compared to the rest of the world Europe truly is the garden to their jungle. I would never want to live and certainly not want to settle down in any of these regions. But next to the US we have been stagnating for the past half century. Perhaps it is just this lack of will to want to surpass our already comfortable living conditions that has lead to Europe's stagnation.
I certainly don't believe a world dominated by China would be a better one, and dont even believe that it is likely, at least for the next half a century. I believe that overall US hegemony has served the world well. It is just that if Europe continues its relative decline compared to the US in population and economy, we will no longer have the capability to independently protect our way of life.
If a Trump-like figure decides to pull out of Europe completely in 20-30 years, how will we be able to support our welfare states and economies? Will we have to cut a humiliating deal with China, neglecting their human-right abuses in the rest of Eurasia?
@@kaiserbauch9092 My grandfather was an Austrian born in Vienna
From everything I know from my family AustriaHungary was a really great place to live My family had money and I suppose that helped But I guess things didnt look so rosy to Gavrilo and the Austrians should have been more responsive to the needs of ALL the people in their little empire
If they had maybe 2 world wars could have been avoided and the lottle empire could have endured
@@helsinkianon I also agree that Pax Americana has done wonders to the world.
Safe oceans for flourishing trade, maintained by the century of naval expansion of America.
Cultural homogenization of the world, even though gradual.
Safe sleep at night knowing that the russians can't attack my country cuz we have a friend with six thousand nukes.
Although they messed up in the middle east, I can't expect them to be perfect.
What they do in their country, i can only give my opinion on, not demand anything about it.
Would the world really have escaped WW3 without a hegemon?
I feel like much of the criticism levied at America comes from the fact that it basically dictates the foreign policy of many other countries, and nobody likes to be told what to do.
Most countries simply hate America for simply being in charge. They act as if their own mother died in the middle east, even though everybody knows they don't care about who died there, because if they did, they would have done something about it.
We are Greece to the American's Rome - a progenitor civilisation that once was the envy of the world, now all we do is dream of past glories...
I would argue that most of Europeans do not even dream of the past, they consider it deplorable. I would be much more satisfied if we were trying to proudly preserve the past, knowing that we cannot come close to the greatness.
@@kaiserbauch9092 good point. We have been re-educated to deplore our past in a very sanctimonious way. I often wonder what level of hardship or horrors would be required to change that perspective.
Dreaming of past glories is more common in Britain and Ireland
Indians do the same in some sense because we were the largest world economy for 1500 years
Greece is not a progenitor of Rome
It makes me laugh when people say the EU is a rising superpower
its a cruel lie designed to fuel the fragile euroEGO
It is cringe.
managed decline is the eu. It widens as europe declines
@@TheSwedishHistorian I predict the rise of poland and ukraine and hungary AFTER ww3
@dihvocfoscocudvyvdd Dont you worry America has a plan lol
just a couple mins into the video, I'm soooo glad somebody is finally talking about the clearly euro-chauvinist brand of anti-americanism so ubiquitous among european liberals and many many leftists. It's a particularly whimpish and pathetic expression of impotent rage leveled by the old imperialist nations who feel humiliated by the dominance of a country that they deem to be governed by the descendents of their own undesirables. as a leftist I am convinced that you can't be an anti-imperialist if you are a disguised euro-chauvinist deep down
yes and it's all even more painfully embarrassing when you consider that their media consumption is indeed so often just rehashed American culture. it's so obvious it hurts
You raise an interesting point with the disguised euro-chauvinism. It for example manifests itself in the different approach to people that Western Europeans deem as also European and thus holding to different standards than non-European peoples. USA, post-communist Europe or Israll are criticised heavily for things that are never brought up when discussing nations that are deemed non-European and thus, in a passive agressive way, too primitive to be criticised for their behaviour.
An important addendum to your point about the European automobile industry: The EU decided to ban the production of combustion engine vehicles starting 2035.
hahahahahahahahahahah
Yep, in Poland, where I live, our power engineering is based on coal, which soon also be prohibited (or strongly limited in best scenario). With only electric cars available, this will mean a car will be a luxury:)
I am talking about that to my friends and they seems not to believe me.
@@jerzyzbiaowiezy6249 It was the Germans who were pushing the Green Energy Lie, while they were running their real economy on cheap russian gas and cheap but high quality russian coal (german and polish coal is lignite , low quaity and limited applications)
Now because of America the Germans are screwed and not very happy their lies have been exposed lol
Yep, we are just adding nails to our coffin. I will talk more extensively about this in the second part of this series.
@@jerzyzbiaowiezy6249 Hopefully you will be succesful in your nuclear power program.
It will be interesting to see how Eastern and Central European economies deal with the decline of the auto sector, to my knowledge their economies are deeply reliant on German auto manufacturing supply chains.
Friend, this is a spectacular video. As a Nigerian with a love of history, especially European history, this video really hits several marks. Your presentation was well done. the discussion is objective and the points well researched and analyzed, especially the areas on socio-economic policies, manufacturing, cultural soft-power, regulation and innovation. It reminds me a bit of Whatifalthist but more detailed and analytical. I hope Europe can pick itself up in the future.
Thank you!
Thank you :)
Wow thanks alot. I hope we can prevent that decline but i fear we are Close/over the point of no return.
@@dave_sic1365 Do not fear. We're good. And we're gonna be good.
Nice to see a whatifalthist shoutout. That’s how I found this channel.
Spot on, I'm a German who lives in Berlin with a lot of Hipsters, their vocabulary while speaking is 30-40% English because apparently that's cool, at the same time they "hate" the U.S., Europe is engaging in a massive cope. Europe has been an extension of the U.S. since Bretton Woods(and America already became the unipolar hegemon after ww1), now it will become an extension of Asia(which is destiny I guess). We have come a far way from Martin Luther, to Bismarck, to pop smoke.
Very good comment.
Its sad that nationalism has a stigma in Germany. Just because you love your nation doesn’t make you a nazi. Germany for Germans
I agree, but lets not pretend its one way traffic. Some parts of european cultures still impact/influence americans
nothing wrong with pop smoke rip it's not his fault things are the way they are
@@Synochra Nothing wrong with pop smoke(I just know he is a rapper) but I cringe at the germans who tarp as American rappers
I am greek, and for now, my biggest concern is the future demographic composition of countries like Germany, the UK, Netherlands, Sweden, France, Austria.
It will be interesting to see if the immigrants keep coming after we can no longer pay for our welfare states.
@@helsinkianon I believe that they will keep coming if they can and are legally allowed to.
Greece was better off under the Ottomans.
@@husted5488 I don't believe that it is really possible to compare modern day Greece, with how people lived in the 15th to 18th century, but from what I know, it was not better off from any point of view that I can now imagine.
@@tomorrowneverdies567 I guess in 15th-18th century Greece was occupied by Ottoman Turkey.
I don't think you enjoyed that time.
We moved 1963 to the USA. Age 22. We did rather well here but kept German citizenship. Mostly for emotional reasons. Past glory of music, literature and technology. We finally got the US citizenship recently. More or less as a protest. We do not like the German dependence of Russian energy and the German refusal to adequately develop a defense. We did notice the lack of German leadership in Information Technology. Rather revealing we think. Your comment about Elon Musk hit home with us. We agree.
Glad you are doing good!
Yes, because more expensive gas and oil from USA is much more than those from Russia for German economy. How brainwashed you are!
Well you never believed in Europe or Germany even in the 60s. This is why you moved to a better place.
Your attachments are emotional. Because your rational mind told you even six decades back that Europe or Germany is not a good place to be.
Excellent video (as always). Europe's significant decline relative to the US is even more stark when you take into account that most Americans believe their own country is in rapid decline as well (there was a reason why "Make America Great Again" resonated so well with Americans). Add on the impending native population loss due to low fertility in most of Europe, coupled with "problematic" immigrant influxes, and you really don't see how Europe can innovate its way out of this predicament.
Thank you!
Yes, when I see some people simultaneously speaking about the "inevitable" American decline (Russia and China are about to launch their own reserve currency that is going to destroy the dollar any day now!) and the rise of Europe as a world power, I do not know if to cry or if to laugh. But the notion of American decline which many people seems to believe in the US just points out to the exceptional position of America. Its position is so strong, that people look at any small kind of inconvenience as a sign of coming decline.
@@kaiserbauch9092 I don't agree with your upbeat view of America's future. America's "exceptional position" was gained by having all the other competitors knocked out of the game after WWII. While I agree that Europe Inc doesn't really pose an economic or technology leadership threat to the US, there is a real threat coming from China, where key future tech (e.g. solar, batteries, EVs, AI, robotics, and a lot more) is progressing towards dominance a lot faster in China than in the US. It's a lot more than just belief. The US government is worried and you can see it in the slew of anti-globalization moves they are putting in place to try to curb China's inevitable rise to the #1 technological and economic power in the world. Europe has a lot less to fear from China since Europe doesn't have a leadership position to lose (and the Chinese aren't about to start selling smelly cheese or expensive wines).
I can not agree here. I think that you overlook the 1 most important source of American power - the geography. American geography is absolutely unmatched. Unlimited access to both Pacific and Atlantic oceans, largest continuous sway of fertile farmland in the world, best network of navigable rivers, huge deposits of natural resources like gas and oil, insularity from all the potential competitors and so on. No other country is even remotely close to this set of characteristics. tha tis the main reason why the US can just join a war anywhere in the world and the war never touches US mainland. China, while very technologically capable, is surrounded by hostile or semihostile powers that fears its rise, is completely dependant on imports of gas, oil, coal and food and is also in completely tragic demographic shape.
@@kaiserbauch9092Yes, the US is blessed with good farmland and rivers, but in the 21st century land borders are pretty much meaningless unless the Mongols are getting their act together again. Today countries don't need to invade and plunder in order to do real damage - from far far away. Inter-continental hyper-sonic nuclear weapons, offensive-cyber attacks on key infrastructure, and EMP blasts from space don't really care about borders. In history, all empires fall sooner or later. The American empire (sadly) has seen it's peak and it's all down hill from here on until the end. I really don't think that China wants the US to fall. Besides being dependent on oil from the outside, a lot China's economy depends on exports to a strong world economy - which rises and falls as the US economy jumps from from boom to bust. I also don't believe in the demographic doom story regarding China. Yes, their population will shrink, and there will be short term pain as the population ages, but a generation or 2 after that, they will stabilize on some lower number and replace those workers with automation and offshoring to even lower-cost production countries.
@@banto1 😂 that’s an outlandish take.
NATO (which is controlled by the USA) owns around 50% of the world’s economy, spends way more than the rest of the world combined on its military (that gap is massively widening with Europe remilitarising) and has absolute dominance at sea (in global shipping and military).
China is so dependent on the rest of the world that if the USA created a blockade there entire civilisation would collapse, tens of millions (potentiality hundreds of millions) would starve and they wouldn’t be able to get enough natural resources to maintain there economy (deindustrialisation).
Not to mention China relies on cheep manufacturing to sell goods to rich countries, without that the majority of there economy would simply crumble.
The USA’s geography is massively important, not just military but in an economic sense, ignoring this factor is ridiculous.
The population collapse in China is a major issue, as it’s literally a ticking time bomb for there economy, without mass amounts of people what does China have to stay competitive with the west?
Manufacturing (China’s main industry) with automation will leave China and move back to developed countries (why would companies keep there manufacturing there?)
And China (unlike developed countries) simply its rich enough per person to support mass amounts of old people.
China will become the number 1 economy, however the west as a collective will still far surpass them, and I believe just a a few decades after they become the number 1 economy the USA will overtake them again.
unfortunately what I seem to observe as well. I am from sweden and most europeans lack ambition. many study and change programmes multiple times in university. Everything is about sex and social issues, meanwhile the economy gets worse and worse. Low skilled work is almost completely gone and we have a permanent underclass
I thought the swedish economy was ok
You mention the university and for me one of the most frustrating thing is the overall pressure created about the need to go to the university just for the sake of doing it, even if one is not particulary interested in anything or that talented. We can than boast about the number of students and graduates growing, but huge proportion of them is just studying something not that useful, the prestige and quality of college education is going down and we still have huge need for STEM graduates, number of which is going down, since most people wants to study humanities, which are just easier. It does not make any sense, since in my age bracket in the Czech Republic, people that are doing crafts are usually much better off than people that studied economy, sociology or even law.
I agree but I would say everything is about *gender* and social issues nowadays :D Sex is a concept you will probably be banned and shunned for using
You should read the coming Caesars by Amaury de Riencourt if you haven't already. It focuses on the parallels between Europe and Greece and Rome and America. And we really are living in a world where while Greece is just living off of its cultural heritage while the Romans are constantly evolving.
I am aware of the book, but my reading list is so stacked up that I will be glad to get to it within a year :D
So the Americanization of Europe in decline would correspond to the Byzantine Empire, a highly Latinized but slowly decaying Greek culture? And Europe's ambivalent attitude towards America would correspond to Byzantine Christianity's ambivalent attitude to the Latin Church?
Kinda the Athens syndrome, isn't it? We could have been conquered and humiliated but we're culturally superior! 🤣 The big problem is this: what if the American decadence becomes too serious to handle? In that case Athens will have to learn to live without Rome or die trying... 😝
Except Rome was a concious Imperium the US barely understands that it needs to invest in its own infrastructure.
Also it now more
often plunders the world for STEM talent while its traditional population fall into backward superstition as well as anti Science & anti intellectualism. We hear a lot about US flexibility and adaptability but how real are these today?
Other big problems for the Greece to Rome analogy are Geography (the US sees no Barbarians on its immediate borders) and US unwillingness to don the Imperial mantle is hard to miss. And any US cultural Imperialism is mostly shallow kitch surely.
In most aspects of humsn activity the US genuinely seems to think the whole world just accepts it does all things better than the rest of the world. It patently doesn't in many areas.
@@alsoascot02 thanks for your comment. Although it's obvious you made some orthographic mistakes due to writing on a smartphone I understood the message and share it completely. I can't fathom why there's so much idolization of America, at least when it comes to American authors I can explain it with nationalism.
I don't subscribe to this opinion, but here's one way to look at it.
Europe is essentially turning into the republic of Venice on a global scale. A continent sized museum with a lot of respect from other countries but mostly irrelevant economically and militarily.
Yeah, but the thing is that while tourism can pretty much sustain the economy of 1 mid-sized city, it sure can not sustain a continent's economy.
@@kaiserbauch9092 One thing's for certain. Things are going to change a lot and comparatively soon.
@@TheHistoryofBiology Irrelevant? The EU has the second biggest economy in the world?
@@percy3993 So was the Soviet Union in 1970 at around 40 to 60% of the US GDP
The republic of Venice was anything but irrelevant economically in the Middle Ages, so that analogy seems odd.
You should read Oswald Spengler. German philosopher who predicted this in the 1920s by arguing European culture was losing its cultural mission
I got The Decline of the West this christmas, but I haven´t started with it yet. It seems to me that it will be very challenging read and I thus always start reading something else when I finish the book I am currently reading :D
At its core, the strength, prosperity and trajectory of any country or region are based upon demographics. All other factors are merely peripheral, and do not define the overall course in the long run. The fact that Europe fought two horrific world wars in the 20th Century, destroying their cream of the next generation, and now (during relative peace) are choosing to not have children at all, is the death knell. This will eventually leave the lands of Europe an empty carcass, a hollow shell of its previous glory, depopulated or perhaps even replaced by yet another foreign group.
In my opinion, the hey-day of Europe was probably around 1900, and since then the Europeans have been committing (and are still committing) a slow, painful suicide.
The worst part of this is that the decline is completely reversible, but Europeans are still doubling down on everything that has been rotting their society from within.
I write this with no sense of moral superiority or satisfaction. I am an American, but I am of European descent, and I wish my cousins across the water would wake up from their self-imposed stupor and reclaim their once great heritage. Perhaps one day they will, but not with their current mindset, culture, leadership, and sense of priorities.
So do you blame Foreigners for anything do you think they are at fault or do you think that its Europeans who are at fault for their societal and demographic collapse? to me Its not foreigners i mean if your smart and you live in a 3rd world country when your offered a chance to live in a good prosperous rich country like in western Europe with good pay you will go for it and others will go for the purpose of finding a job or for getting better living conditions which Europeans are not denying them so to me they are allowing them in so they are not at fault its the Europeans who allow mass migration who are at work in the end its Human nature to go to another prosperous country for better life quality.
@@hishamalaker491 No, I do not blame foreigners. Please go back to my original statement and read it more carefully. You will see that I never once blamed foreigners or immigrants, but repeatedly stated that the Europeans are doing this to themselves. The problem lies in demographic decline; immigration is ancillary and symptomatic of the problem, not the core issue.
It is hard to have multiple children when houses in Europe are often more expensive than central New York relative to salaries.
I unfortunately agree with pretty much everything you wrote.
@@einarr42 people in Europe can afford to have 2 children what it is is selfishness u what to spend every last scent on eating out and stuff instead of children
The sense I get in Europe is that it's a continent planning its own retirement. Maybe it did some bad things when it was young and full of hormones, but now its priority is like you say: piles of regulation to prevent inconvenience for people who want to live quiet lives with occasional pleasing vacations. Let the younger powers overseas take all the bold actions, and make sure we can buy the best of it while being insulated from all the messiness that's inseparable from boldness. It doesn't help that the population of Europe is literally getting older every year from the lack of kids, and you get a culture that acts old and has old-people priorities. And to be fair, I honestly think that it will be a pretty nice continent-sized retirement home for many decades. It's probably where I will go to retire. The same trend is arising here in the US, but it's decades behind Europe. Until recently we really liked global free trade, thinking that we can win that game. Now it's more about "reshoring" and protectionist tariffs and acting scared of the dynamic "outside world" - which looks like the early stages of Euro-decay.
I agree. The thing that people often does not seem to realise or at least ackownledge is that retirement precedes death.
On that note, I would say you could look to the stagnation of the Soviet Union under Brezhnev, Andropov and Chernenko for comparison. Ending up with its collapse, and subsequent chaos throughout the Russian sphere, through the 90s. Life wasn't too bad during that stagnant phase, but lack of innovation and competitiveness led to the mess that is modern Russian society.
Not a perfect comparison though, given that brain drain was a big part of the problem, and everyone still seems to want to come to the West (and I don't see China, India, etc. taking that place anytime soon).
Agree. Long term I don't know how Europe will fund retirements when there won't be a tax base large enough to fund it.
@@Gary-bz1rf Soylent green.
@@mrguitarguygates What mess that is modern Russian society? What lack of innovation and competitiveness? Not that we are some paradise but you have no idea what you're talking about; probably why you guys expected Russia to collapse from Western sanctions.
Is it that you make yourselves feel better about Europe's problems by pointing out how much worse allegedly other places in the world have it than you? Russia, India, China, etc..? Focus on yourselves instead, and without badmouthing others.
I am a 28 old Swiss who studies for a masters in laser technology at the moment.
I will try to give a bit of a background about Switzerland from my point of view.
Switzerland is a country which focuses on innovation. It has an edge over much larger countries with many more geniuses based on a few cultural reasons.
- The German speaking world has a protestant history. And that history allows them to have a good working mindset.
- You mentioned that European people don't value competition as much as Americans or Asians. I do think that is a problem indeed. But Not entirely. In Switzerland the work life balance is valued highly. This allows for (hopefully) healthier individuals, families and communities. And a person who is healthy and part of a healthy community is more capable of being creative. Which is one of the only reasons why Switzerland can stay so relevant. If you want a high standard of living, a high social security and a very innovative job in the field of technology, pharma or economy then Switzerland is an attractive place. If you value financial gain over quality of life or if you value a high tempo environment or if you value being a head of a company with hundreds of thousands of employees then Switzerland is not the place for you. That is called finding a niche and optimizing for it. Switzerland has a lot of inventions and it produces machines which are exported all over the world. The high quantity production is not done in Switzerland. As long as we can optimize on that we stay competitive. If other countries catch up in that aspect then Switzerland looses a lot in value for the pure fact alone that it is so small, has so little natural resources and such a small population.
- Social structure including our form of government places a high value of the individual person. We try to place local over centralized in many places. For example we do not have a silicon valley. We do not even have big cities. Sure Zurich and Geneva are pretty big compared to other places in Switzerland. But most of our population is spread out. And thanks to our road and public transport system anything is accessible within a relatively short amount of time. Because of that we have world leading companies in very specialized areas in random villages all over Switzerland. That allows us to combine high quality workplaces with a high quality living environment. And even if you want to live in the city, you can easily go into the mountains over the weekend or even go to some close-by forest during evening.
- ~95% of our population goes to public school. And our public school is of better quality than even our own private schools. In the last year of school we have set apart some time to look at all the professions out there. We visit job advice centers, we visit companies to see how we like the work there and then we can choose to go the route of high school or apprenticeship. Apprenticeship is a combination of working at a company with a focus on learning the craft and the vocational school where we learn the relevant theory. Both highschool and apprenticeship normally take 4 years. Afterwards you can go to either an university or an university of applied science. With that education system people are enabled to choose whatever profession they like best. Sure it doesn't work 100%, but it is a lot better than some other systems out there as basically every person get's a qualified education and we have a contact with practice pretty early on so we know right then if we actually like it or not.
- I've heard that in other countries universities of applied sciences are way below universities in terms of quality. In Switzerland there is a difference too, but it is way smaller. There are even plenty of companies which prefer students with a bachelor from an university of applied science over a student with a masters from a regular university. Our university of applied science is set up in a way that you learn both theory and application in the bachelor. Two teachers of mine who taught both in Swiss universities and foreign universities said that the university of applied science I attended was equivalent to a midclass university outside of Switzerland.
- Both the regular university and the university of applied sciences are roughly 90% payed by the tax payer. Also in the university of applied science I studied at, all the teachers had to work at an institute and take research jobs from companies to not loose touch with the industry. But it also comes with the advantage of the universities being partially self funding on top of it. Just to give another example of how important education is to Switzerland. The ETH alone gets 1.3bio$ from the government. As a comparison the entire Swiss military spent 5.2bio$ last year.
- Just as a small addition about my field of study. In both the field of thin film technology and laser technology the German speaking countries are very dominant in it. We have a lot of companies and universities specializing in that to the point that these countries are way overrepresented compared to their actual size. And generally speaking I've worked at two companies in two completely different fields before and both were exporting world wide to the point that they were major players in their field of technology. I wasn't looking for world leading companies. I just looked for a job which seemed interesting. Same with my masters in lasers right now. If we just look at the biggest companies or the people who lead culture then this aspect will be overlooked.
- Since you measured countries based on their influence on the world I want to bring another point. Being at the top of the world has a certain disadvantage. The people and organizations which are hungry for power want to take over your government. I've heard the saying that if you are an imperialistic country then you are basically selecting which foreigners rule over your grand children. So if you want to stay a cohesive culture then not being too successful is a way more lasting strategy. But that requires also at least 2.1 children and a resistance to mass immigration.
Thank you for this insight!
@@kaiserbauch9092 No problem. You offer me plenty of insight into the eastern Europe which I neglect way too much.
I agree with that analysis, and as a French, I can see how the French society lost its intellectual dynamism and how the politico-mediatic oligarchy is unable to understand the era and out of touch with modernity, recycling old obsolete ideologies from right to left.
I am glad you agree!
Don't talk about Europe like we are all the same. Me and my countrymen are aware how shit our country is. Portugal has been declining since the 1700's. Depression is our culture and fate. Fado is our music.
Fair enough :D
Iberia is honestly really interesting in this regard, as neither Portugal nor Spain were really part of the World Wars. (Yes, Portugal joined WW1, but had much less involvement than other nations.)
Iberia always just gave me a different vibe than Western Europe, despite being colonial powers like the French, Dutch, and British. I think it's relative non-belligerence in the World Wars is a big reason for that. Kraut actually talked a bit about that in his series on Mexico, I believe.
Portugal should get a pass! Your history in the 15th and 16th centuries is so implausible that if I didn't know it was real I wouldn't believe it. It's tough to expect a small, resource poor, earthquake prone country to stay on top forever. We know deep down you're still Portuguese and not to be doubted.
Pop-culturally you forgot one thing. Football. Everywhere you go around the world you will see kids wear Barcelona, Real Madrid or Premier League club shirts and the Championship League is by far the biggest annual sporting event in the world.
That is a very good point. Legit. Football trully is the last European cultural soft-power weapon.
This video essay resonated with me quite deeply. Not just because I am an American that often wonders why some Europeans still have a sense of superiority to America dispite the fact that more than 50% of Europeans speak English yet Americans feel NO pressure to learn anything else besides English. Europeans consume in mass American culture, but Americans are barely aware of European culture and when security trouble arises in Europe, America is always the leader and largest contributor and is basically keeping Europe safe.
Just like you, I am not commenting on how great America is, but rather how blind Europeans seem to be about the fact that if not for America the west wouldn't be a very important contributor to the world stage at this point. So much of the west lives in benefit of this one Country and doesn't recognise how most of the west has actually been stagnating for a long time. The west ISN'T European anymore!
I am actually a Europhile. I love Europe and it's culture which makes me very sad to see the state that Europe finds itself in. I hope Europeans wake up and find a path that isn't so America centric. A path of partnership rather than depanancy for security and cultural development.
I am glad you like it!
I guess the dollar as a world reserve currency plays its role. It allows the US to keep their standard of living at the expense of those who export their surplus to the US and getting "paid" by ever growing debts denominating in US currency. The money saved with this ponzi scheme is then spent to sustain an obscenely oversized military complex all over the world, while the bridges in the homeland are crumbling and the kids don't learn anything useful at school should the bubble once burst, like e.g. foreign languages.
I think it has to do with Blackrock, ADL, and other major players who support DEI and CritRace incentives.
English is not your language you're the second largest Spanish speaking country in the world and have been since 2013
The US buys a lot of its technological advancements directly from Europeans
There's 750+ million white Europeans, your mexican/Irish hybrid army is protecting us from what exactly? Russia a country that cant even take Ukraine after 2 years
Europe is definitely the west and your country will never do anything about it directly because all you can do is send US gay pride flags, you're going to be a south american country
Reminds of whatifalthist’s video on Europe, although your analysis seems more competent/well-constructed. Great video!
Thank you!
I think whatiflist is to american-centric
@@joaquimbarbosa896 Exactly what i feel!
Keep in mind that china’s GDP numbers are not as accurate as American and European metrics. But it doesn’t change Europes’ precipitous decline.
Why do you think that is the case?
@@kaiserbauch9092 Countries that are run by totalitarian governments tend to inflate gdp data. This was in the news a few months ago.
@KaiserBauch the Chinese Communist Party like to spin stats and news to deceive those whom they perceive to be a threat: the rest of the world
@@kaiserbauch9092 watch Serpantza on China gdp figures. Also PPP might not be the best metric when you want to highlight technology. PPP is only good for life quality, as stuff is cheaper in poorer countries but technology costs the same.
@@kaiserbauch9092 also let’s be honest, back in the day GDP figures wasn’t a competition but now is used for soft power projection. Ofcourse authoritarian regimes will inflate them as much as they can.
Europe is just dying unfortunately. Politically, demographically, economically, technologically and culturally. It needs a big shock to rejuvenate.
We're entering a dark age but I wish we can get out of it really fast
@@cazwalt9013 I suspect the whole world might enter a dark age
Do not lose hope.
That narrative is promoted mainly in fascist circles.
@@Alex-df4lt I'm not a fascist. But hey, if the fascists say something, that doesn't immediately discredit its truthfulness. The communists also say some good/correct things, but it's their propaganda. If a fascist says it's good to drink water, do you stop drinking it? Just because a fascist does something, doesn't mean it's bad.
22:00 There is a simple and straightforward explanation for the dominance of American culture. It is a larger area with a common language, and one of the wealthiest countries in the world. Americans can have a huge budjet into their movies and culture, since they have a huge audience in the same language. In Europe, you will have to export the product to countries with different languages which takes far more effort, or produce to your own domestic market. The reason for Britain dominating cultural influence in Europe is the same - they can access the American market easily due to common language
That is partially true, but it is not the whole story. There is undeniable cultural dynamism and energy that makes American culture so appealing to audiences that do not speak English at all.
If that was true then how does South Korean media dominate asia despite not being in a common language?
@@justinoheat2 that's a good question. I would say that a large economy with a quite large number of speakers or audience in the area allows big budgets which allows cultural hegemony
@@tj-co9goYou have South Korea, and then North Korea and Koreans in other nations (mostly China) and the last two are under hostile regimes. South Korea only has like 50 million people, much the same as places like Italy, France, or the UK. And Korea's history under foreign empires and conflicts has shown that it has become influential DESPITE what it is, not BECAUSE of what it is.
Another real problem not discussed in the video is the propensity of Europe to collapse into warfare no different than that that has characterized the Middle East in recent decades. The USSR and United States sat on that for decades, but now the old differences between numerous nations are bubbling to the surface again, and when they can't be compromised, they are settled by WAR.
Europe is riddled by clashes of interest that have invited warfare for centuries.
That has been the history of Europe, and it is the future history of Europe too.
I agree.
I disagree if anything Western Europe is more United than ever culturally and politically
@@ascendlooks >
Is Europe not AT WAR RIGHT NOW?
Oh ---- you said WESTERN EUROPE. But Europe at war is naturally parts of Europe at war with other parts of Europe.
And then there are issues such as demographic collapse, uncontrolled illegal immigration, gross economic differences between a few rich countries and the rest of Europe and so on.
The EU was built on a foundation of peace and prosperity. Now it doesn't have either.
Sounds interesting in a sinister way, but I don't see it too probable and the existence of nuclear weapons makes annihilation no longer a matter of fiction but of reality. Although a good start would be to conquer England and make it a slave of the continental powers 😝
I disagree. Europeans are tired of war within Europe. Nobody wants it. And many Europeans have things they like about other European countries.
What "old differences"? The only divide I can see is the right vs left political divide, but that's not between countries. It's within countries. Overall Europe is more united than ever, but with a political divide that runs across all countries.
The average age of the population of Europe is around 50 years, and when we talk about domiciled Europeans, the average age is close to 60 years. Europe is a continent of old people, a real old people's home, and the EU has the highest taxes in the world, so it is not surprising that Europe is collapsing. Liberalism, feminism and globalism, and the americanization of Europe have done their work. The situation is the same in Japan. We are just an American colony, and the servant never eats at the master's table, but collects the crumbs.🤑
The Average Age among indigenous Europeans is maybe not 60 Years, but 45 Years. And the average native European (excluding Russia) just has 1.25 Children on Average. Far less than needed for reproduction. And this since decades
European living overseas, this is exactly why I left Europe. so sad. Many europeans think that Europe position on the world is granted... is not
Hope you are doing good overseas.
Thinking success is destined is the first step to decline.
Where did you move to, if I may ask?
I took a class on modern European politics in uni. One of the most frequent themes was ennui - disquiet of the soul and how modern Europe suffers from this lack of belief in itself and its future. I think this is a affliction affecting Europe in everything and there is no clear way to get rid of ennui in European life.
I can second that. I am German in the USA. My boss is in Germany and wife are highly educated (doctors). I asked them about the low birthrate. Their answer?
"There is a lack of belief in an obtainable great future". I tend to accept that. I was born and educated in the Ruhr district of Germany. Very polluted and densely populated. Emigrated to the Midwest of the USA I felt free and the sky is the limit.
That attitude (in part) set me free to do well financially. Eventuelly I think.
BTW, my family in Germany suffered from birth defects traced to pollution.
Interesting!
@@Ebb0Productions History tells us outside China gew falken Empires ever recover. It took circa 1500 years from the fall of the Western Empire for European to again safely travel across the continent on any kind of joined up system.
Eu cred că Europa nu mai are valori supreme pt care să trăiască și pe care să se bazeze, așa că se degradează.
I visited Germany two months ago. The quality of life is definitely a lot lower than back home in the US. There's no air conditioning in hot summer in most places. Energy costs are over twice as high while income is only half of the US salary.
I love detailed videos like this, thank you for making this!
Thanks! I am glad you like it!
I had high hopes when we joined in 2007. I was dreaming that being part of larger union will crush corruption on local level and will lead to (at least some form of) meritocracy. Nothing far from the truth - eu funds made our oligarchs and lifetime politicians even richer and more powerful.
I share the opinion that lack of social mobility and ever increasing wealth inequality are the core issues for Europe. Policymakers are focusing on preserving generational wealth, “prosperous society” is forgotten phrase.
Bureaucracy killed European democracy long time ago. “EU policies” are dictating sovereign members affairs, but the citizens vote is not represented in Brussels. “Brussels” holds accountability to none. Few Europeans voters can explain who are the shot callers in the Union and how are they elected - that’s not a foundation for democracy.
Hopefully the war will sober us up. It’s a great example of what corruption and plutocracy (in both countries) aways leads to.
This channel is awesome
🖖🇧🇬🇪🇺
Thank you!
Romanian here, I totally agree.
Great video! As a german in my mid 30s i share most of your perspectives.
Thank you!
The fact that people are so preoccupied with American internal dealings like abortion laws and the rest says more about the American monopoly over the internet and media than the decline of Europe.
The US have monopolized the internet and mainstream media in the West, and this is simply its result. There is a lot of stuff going on in Europe every day to keep people occupied, but those same people won't be hearing about those things much because they're not as noisy in the social media.
Europe is in a doubly difficult situation in comparison to the US.
Not only has Europe been losing its global dominance, as outlined in the video, to a large part to the US,
Europe has at the same time become a colony of America. This is most readily seen in matters of culture, but it goes far beyond that.
So we went from the preeminent colonizers of the globe to colony of the new empire.
It's no wonder many Europeans are disdainful of the US.
Just such an underated channel!! Your videos are so well made
This was very well done! Subscribed!
Thank you!
So what, for example, could I do? I don't want to emigrate, my passion isn't high-tech. My passion is animation and story telling. Could one option be to open an animation studio in Europe, gain some soft power? I know it's not easy, just a curious thought.
I don't want to wallow in self pity, I want to take action
Europa: The Last Battle is worth a watch!
Great video, and absolutely true.
Fine video with solid data. I'm a middle aged American living in Denmark. I agree with your analysis, and yet I prefer to remain in Denmark because I feel like the quality of life for me and my family is better here. But I'm neither very wealthy nor ambitious, so the system suits me better.
Thank you! It is also fair to point out, that Denmark is one the richest and best governed countries in Europe and the future is likely pretty bright there. But it is not that way for most of Europe.
I hope you enjoy living with all those Nazi Europeans.
I heard Danes are burning Qurans and hating on Muslims while sending weapons to Ukraine to kill more Russians just like the Nazis did.
Oh and Danes and Nazis both viewed Americans as inferior but we both know who won the war.
Good we don't want you hear anyways.
That very well may be the point of the video; middle aged, comfortable, and none ambitious. In other words, America was/is populated by young, ambitious immigration while Europe repatriates fat cats.
There are many factors at work, but I think it all really comes down to demographics - Europeans can sense that their civilisation is dying out, and being replaced by immigrants.
It's a feeling that produces a general sense of despair.
it is criminal that you have so little subs for such superb content. Keep up the good work, some day the algorithm will eventually bless you
Thank you! I will keep grinding!
@@kaiserbauch9092 Great. Výborný obsah, i když ten český přízvuk je v té angličtině hodně znatelný :)
good content keep it up!
Fascinating. I learned a lot that really surprised me, especially on the economics front. The GDP per capita and debt per capita figures were so different from what I imagined that I looked them up to make sure there was no mistake. Well done!
Not that it's a happy story.
fragment from 29th minute mark is very true
Even in Poland young people were expressing immense support for Floyd guy, and while I think that Police overstepped their boundaries there, why would like 98% ethnically white country care about it. Furthermore, while this was going on our beautiful Polish government (at least from what I remember) made harsher decisions regarding abortion laws and some other tax stuff, no one cared as much as they did about some random guy in US getting abused by Police.
It hurts me to see such a state of affairs as I am deeply patriotic, and I would love for my country to make more of an impact but as it is for now - politics contribute greatly to the economical stagnation, with our best reform being enacted around 1990 (Ustawa Wilczka). If you ever wondered how Poland is such a quickly growing post-soviet country this is one of the major reasons for it... it happened roughly 10 years before I was born and to this day all we have is bickering among parties whether or not LGBT should have rights or not.
And yes I know Poland is still quickly developing, but we are all the same dependent on American and Asian technology - we have no car companies, no technological giants - part of which I believe is caused by government feuding for power rather than caring about welfare of Poland at large. It was a long time since we have had a politician in power that, even if sometimes wrong, put Poland first and foremost. In short, Poland is deeply divided politically, its people being played by politicians that rarely seem to genuinely care for the public, only improving situation if it is sure to bring them more votes in upcoming elections.
And as always, your video is exceptionally interesting and touches on subjects not oft touched upon by anyone else, I will be sure to see part 2 asap.
Thank you!
And yeah, what I find most absurd is that people in our countries, the Czech Republic and Poland, are jumping the "white privilege post-colonial guilt" jumpwagon, while Slavic peoples were victims of racism for much of modern history in Europe and the world "Slave" is derived from Slav.
George Floyd is not necessarily a race thing.
@@arthurg.calixto3338 Okay I may be misremembering events, but from what I remember whole thing was about a predominately Caucasian US police force abusing black people. It happened because it was common that when police mistreated white people they, usually, immediately were punished all the while George's killer went under the radar until protests started, thus being punished not as a matter of justice but taking a fall.
@@mefistowski5292 Yes, because predominantly systemic racism (not talking about racism coming from minorities, or as liberals like to call it, ''''reverse'''' racism) comes from the dominant class. But I think the George Floyd protests were just generally a show of compassion to marginalized communities, and also criticism of police brutality and incompetence all around the board. The racial themes probably aren't really sound with eastern european countries but they can just relate to the pain and suffering of black families hit by police brutality just off of a morality thing, and also be in favor of police reform (assuming that many eastern european youth is anti-authoritarian)
so the killing of unarmed civilians by the police force isn't an issue for you when the victim is black? if george floyd were white but the cirumstances the same, would poland be right to have cared?
You gave an excellent analysis of how European companies are struggling. It is interesting to note that European pharmaceutical companies (Roche, Novartis, Sanofi, AZ, GSK) comprise 5/10 of the top Global Pharmaceutical companies by turnover. There are no Chinese or Japanese companies in this top ten.
These companies are heavily involved in traditional chemical medicines as well as newer high tech biologic based medicines. The Europeans have heavily invested in newer technologies like genomics, AI and robotics.
Although the US produces the majority of the new drugs discovered, Switzerland is the world leader in new drugs discovered per million people. There is no decline in Europe in this area, just business as usual.
Thank you for your praise and for this insight!
Euro biotech are so cool!
You talk about Europe ending up as a tourist destination.
Well, maybe not even that.
I was in there two weeks ago and I can tell you it was not much fun.
I’m not rushing back for a vacation.
very good content. Thx.
Modern Europe always makes me depressed.
It is kinda depressing.
Am European and it's only getting worse it seems.
Shame the police and military are supporting the capitalists who want to destroy Europe.
Guess its time to do something about it
heat the ovens up
Such good analysis
Thank you!
I like your content. Just subscribed to your channel.
You're doing great kid
Thanks!
the question which concerns me most these days is whether or not Europe can find it in itself to escape from this stagnation with newfound purpose. I am confident in America's ability to rebound because it is innately geared towards continuous competition. I dont think modern Europe has that spark. In the very least I hope future Europe does. I would be incredibly dissappointed to see Europe become fully Americanized, and I say as much as an American. I sincerely hope the future offers both America and Europe a return to tradition and true prosperity.
I do not think that contmeporary Europe will find some new purpouse in any near future, I think we are in for slow corosion of everything. It sure will change at some point, but it is hard to say if the continent will have much in common with what we know right now at that point.
As a Romanian: good riddance. My country isn't even part of "Europe" as most think of it. Western Europe sought to dictate to us and trade us over as if we were cattle for centuries. Heck, were it up to Western Europe, Romania wouldn't even exist: the August 1858 Paris Convention sought to stop the Romanian Principalities from unifying. But as per usual, Romanians found a way...
I hope Romania becomes a strong conduit for American control over Europe. It would be objectively deserved and cathartic to us. As it has been cathartic for me to see Sweden being held up at NATO's door. Posh twat Western country being on the receiving end for once.
I understand what you mean. I believe that the development of the eastern part of the continent will be very different. We never experienced such highs, but we thus won´t see such lows, in the relative terms. My next video (after part II. of this series) will be about the future of central and eastern Europe.
Well done, my man!
Thank you!
video of the decade.
The changing dynamic between Europe and the U.S. will become more apparent over the coming decade. As of now, most Europeans, from my personal experience see the U.S. as equal if not lesser.
Europe is not a country it is a continent. An irrelevant one at that.
Awesome video! I agree with all said. I believe that the long-term decline can only be halted through further EU integration. However, this path may already be compromised by what Germany/France presented last year. Specifically, we need to unify e-commerce/digital markets to create a large, unified market similar to the US (IMO that's the reason why so many unicorns are in the US). We should also implement immigration policies that attract the best and most entrepreneurial individuals, similar to the ones in the US, Canada, and Australia. Finally, we need a military capable of protecting all members and the interests of the bloc, as China, the US, and India do. Cheers from Poland
as someone who is from the EU (cro)
i genuinely cant see if, how and if ever will the EU have its own standing army
Nobody believed NATO or EU could exist 70 yrs ago too
@@radosawkmita2764 well not really
Nato coming couldve been seen from other galaxy away after the ww2
And EU sorta exists in weird forms from the 70s but it changed names as it spread and was becoming mote cohetent
Its also not an wild and "progressive" idea as people tend to be
But EU or whatever that uniom was before
Never imagined nor wanted to have an army precisely because of nato, that was always a no no and it will always remain weird and very hard to achieve
(Because thats exactly what we didnt imagine eu will have to do in the future, or rather our present)
@@Bleilock1 I get your points and I agree with them. I also don't like what I'm seeing and how the EU operates. I can see a broken machine, but my goal here is to look from 50-100 yrs perspective what options there are. In my opinion, Europe's only choice is to either remain fragmented and disorganized or to evolve, deepen integration, and reform in order to slowly become something more capable of standing up to other players in the global arena.
@@radosawkmita2764 This is all true, but America has a lot of influence in Europe which they will use to keep us divided.
I don't see any political will to significantly deepen European integration in a way which is acceptable to all members. I would say that there are significant parts of Europe, such as the Nordics, the Netherlands, Ireland, parts of anti-Russian Eastern Europe which would rather deepen ties with the United States. Southern Europe will be a burden with terminal demographics.
Can France + Germany push this trough alone? Maybe another Trump term in Washington will give them momentum. But more in general, do Europeans even want to be an autonomous actor on the world stage? Our leaders have no experience in this and the last independent act of European foreign policy, the Suez intervention, ended in disaster.
love it.
Your videos are amazing!
Thank you so much!
@@kaiserbauch9092 But you need to work on that pronunciation my friend :D The content is top, but it's very hard to listen to as it sound as if you read each word separately.
Toyota is borderline American at this point. The HQ is in Japan but the largest plants are in Kentucky and Texas. Samsung and TSMC are building out primarily in the American southwest right now. I don’t know if it is a security thing or a demographic one (as those states happen to be immigration hot beds and thus has available labor).
Japanese are very good at preparing for the future by outsourcing the factories to the future markets.
Misleading - the plants in the US are for the US martket, other locations all round the globe have Toyota factories too.
@@MrX-wd8cm No sh*t, Sherlock.
@@popNdawg Tell the Original commenter not me , Einstein.
@mrX they are the primary consumer and producer of Toyota. They are also building out in the US. To clarify further Japan has embraced a offshoring strategy for most businesses but outside semiconductors (who aren’t completely exempt) this has led to pretty close economic ties between Japan and the US to the point where Japan’s capital goes pretty heavily into US production.
I think Europe's situation is much more tenuous than the US because it's location is much worse, it has far fewer resources and much more geopolitical issues, such things just aren't serious issues in North America but potentially crippling for European nations. I'm unsure of what will happen because of the demographic situation in the world. It seems that as countries become more developed they stop having kids, and that gets extremely far in some countries (like south korea with it's fertility rate of 0.8 or worse now), and in addition the elites of the west seem to think the ideal solution to this problem is just to import as many people from the least developed countries on earth as possible forever, even if they have nothing going for them, so who knows what the future holds for each country or for that matter human civilization as a whole moving forwards.
It is true, the American geography is just completely superb and gives them great geopolitical isnularity.
A lot of Western Europe's problems will eventually come to the US, I think it's just a couple of decades ahead. We're all heading the same way. Climate change also will greatly affect the US and make it less resourceful, plus it is more prone to natural disasters than Europe, so the US is by no means 'out of the woods'.
Good video
GIVE THIS MAN A US CITIZENSHIP
You missed one part that, that the machines producing advanced semi-conductors are largely made by a Dutch company.
But yeah I overall agree, Europe is struggling to innovate. The American and European economies are so close, that Silicon Valley is the tech region for both and with the linked economies it’s very hard to set up a region to rival that.
I actually mention the ASML in the text at 20:10.
@@kaiserbauch9092 Ah yes sorry
ASML is multinational and 99% of the engineering workforce is not even Dutch but literally from every country in the world. ASML is given huge money from Intel and Apple and the formers are not interested in Lithography as long as there is someone trusted enough to make it for them. It's not very lucrative business, it's just a niche use case. The most lucrative business when it comes to Silicon is IP design.
@@karimmanaouil9354 18.000 out of the 39.000 employees that ASML has are based in the Netherlands (and in the next few years this will be expanded to 35k employees in the Netherlands). Also, the HQ and according to ASML themselves, their worldwide biggest R&D centre is located there. Besides that there is also a factory located in Berlin (but the Berlin location is ofcourse less notable compared to asia and the US)
Also, regarding the "decline of Europe", demographically, according to Richard Lynn and Dr. Nyborg, the average IQ (human capital) is declining in West Europe. (--Declining towards the national per-capita average IQ levels of the Third-World populations that today's "new Europeans" came from. According to Dr. Richard Lynn and Dr. Nyborg.
I am aware of these propositions, however I think this issues is broader and do not include just western Europe, but the whole developed world.
lynn is a racist who only does research to further his racist views. i wouldnt be surprised of his studies were tampered with and dishonest
@@kaiserbauch9092 wrong. the developed world--japan korea China--does not have declining IQs. because there are no "new Koreans" from Africa.
Yes Dr. Richard Lynn who definitely hasn’t received criticism for skewing research and literally does not receive funding from a white supremacist group dedicated to proving race realism.
Remember, Nokia did invent the smart phone. Apple's only real innovation was adding a touch screen. Yes, there haven't been any big new consumer inventions out of Europe for 15 years. But where have there been?
Bullshit. Apple developed a real platform that is more than just a touch screen. From hardware to software innovation. The small fully-fledged microprocessor that can run a full desktop-like operating system with a huge software ecosystem made up of well established programming languages and software development environments to create millions of rich applications for the users, replicating the desktop computer experience on a small device, with real IP network connections and fully-fledged multi-processing programs including browsers, multimedia and advanced 3D graphics. It's not bullshit. It's fucking crazy engineering effort. Nokia doesn't stand a chance to be compared with what Apple created.
Nokia was a Finnish company that was run by engineers. As one from Finland myself, Finns are socially awkward, introverted, modest. They underestimated the importance of marketing, design and being cool because those things aren't important in our culture. So they forgot that value in the economy is ultimately subjective and based around hype, and that's how you make profits.
I have used the old Nokia phones and while the technical aspects are great, the UI is super clunky and graphics are ugly. Apple did away with that and made the phone usable to any average person without former experience.
Another problem was arrogance and comfortability. Nokia didn't view new technologies like touchscreens as useful, and didn't put enough resources to developing them when the time came. When they were in the world leading position they thought they could keep doing the same for ever and not have to adapt and innovate.
Another fact is that Nokia was unable to create a network of services like Apple did, with their own service for everything. This might have made the phones more appealing, yet Nokia failed to create this common environment and infrastructure convincingly.
Keep saying to yourself that.
31:00 This one still confuses me. Why did so many Europeans take up the whole BLM grift so much? Even in much of Africa, we ignored that scam.
It is truly remarkable. It is as if we are not able not to have an opinion about something that is a subject in America.
Great video m8!
Thank you!
7:00 As a Russian, I would really like to get your opinion on my country (and other post-Soviet states as well)
Well, I think the biggest problem of Russia and other post-Soviet countries is the massive shrinking of their populations.
@@dariuszgaat5771 Yes, but for Russia it's not so different from Central and Western European countries, because we have a large flow of immigrants from Muslim countries of Central Asia and fertility rates about average by European standards (1.5, which is similar to Poland, Germany or the UK); though, if you take Ukraine and Belarus, then yes, they don't receive such numbers of immigrants and depopulate much faster
@@DungeonMarshal But the influx of so many immigrants from culturally alien countries is not a good thing. I also heard that there is a huge number of abortions in Russia. That's very bad.
Peter Zeihan seems pretty accurate
@@DungeonMarshal but are those immigrants Russian culturally. Will they impose their own beliefs or will they adopt Russian values.
You're mostly right about the hypocrisy between emulating American culture and simultaneously rejecting the USA in many ways, I've always thought of it as quite odd. I've lived in the US and I tell people that I wouldn't want to live there again but that there's something to the place you can't deny, some sense of opportunity and industriousness hard to come across in Germany. I say all that as a left person which tells you something.
Funny how you tried to say the rape issue in India is "severe" but the chart says the rate is less than 2.0 per 100k, which is MUCH lower than many countries of the world like South Africa for example, and even lower than some western countries. The truth is India will never shy away from these cases and won't hesitate to report them, whereas incidents of rape and sexual assault are REGULARLY covered up in Western countries and never reported on by the news media.
The tragedy of Europe is a tragedy written in demographics. China will be the first to showcase the world exactly what this looks like when they go tits up in a decade due to losing so many to retirement, and simply not having a replacement workforce. Germany will be Europe's version of this, as Russia cutting the balls of their entire industry over Ukraine is going to force them to make some very hard choices regarding their entire economic model, especially in a world where the closest access to oil and gas for the Germans is -- Nigeria. Oh, and they are losing their working age population over aging. Most other European states (save France) are in the same boat, and are only off a few years or also dependent on now-dying globalization for any economic significance.
Looking back historically, Europe is the story of one people group moving in to supplant another, usually a pliant native group overrun by starving and ruthless nomads. Even Rome itself was settled by the last remnants of Aeneas's descendants from Troy, via Carthage. Fewer parts of Europe have seen more invading peoples than the British isles, part of why I suspect they have such a rich set of traditions and genetic stock, as evidenced by the great men that little speck of land tends to produce. For Europe to be overrun again by less-progressive peoples is just history going down the same rabbit hole (either by invitation, holdovers of colonization, or just mass immigration waves), is simply par for the course. The only difference is the new immigrants are not, dare I say, sourced from more local stock? Parts of Europe are dealing with true multicultural issues not seen in centuries, and slowly turning into settler societies. Western Europe would do well to study how (rightly or wrongly) the New World handled these issues, and adjust accordingly.
You have two options Europe: one, increase your birthrates to above 2 per woman, or accept immigration and cultural change as the price for replacing your disappearing workforce. Japan is trying to automate or outsource swaths of its economy to salvage it from this fate, but this only delays the inevitable. Even if tomorrow the EU offered no taxes for citizens bearing and rearing children plus state assistance, it would still take 20 years to have that workforce come online. With the spectre of nuclear war over Ukraine lurking around the corner, the continent might simply be out of time.
True, but the demographic crisis is not an European phenomenon, as you correctly wrote. Places like Brazil, Turkey, Iran, Thailand and others will likely ecperienced on their own in the future.
I actually wonder if in the future Eroupe will partake in the colonization of space
the youtuber WhatifAlthist briefly discussed the matter in a video series where he covered the future of Europe and America, and it was his opinion that the Americans would carry Europe and Japan to space with them. As time goes on it seems to make more and more sense to me. Both Japan and Europe will need the aid as their populations dip below replacement level and America, having reindustrialized by then, will eagerly supply them with it because of all the scientists and designers they'll get out of it.
Probably, but it would most likely be in form of a support role to the Americans, not a competing homegrown effort.
I would not bet on it, not directly or between the first pioneers to do so.
@@lazer-ape Depends. I think sea mining can have an absurd impact on reviving european economies for exemple
@@lazer-ape lol you guys have a short term thinking we are not going to Mars until 2050 the technology is not there and by then china and india will have half of world GDP so india and china Usa will be pioneers not Eu.
Having an interest in knowledge is admirable, but we have come a long way from the time of ancient philosophers, who could have an opinion in every field of knowledge.
Without a proper understanding of how currency exchange works, one can not and ought not attempt to draw conclusions from GDP per capita tables.
Also, the forthcoming economic assessments of Mario Draghi is going to change everyone's perspective on Europe's economic future.
Is there any chance for europe to somewhat recover a bit of its prestige in the international scenario, or it will inevitably come to irrelevancy?
Stopping importing American cultural issues would be a start
As Aragorn have said, there is always hope
The three biggest mistakes Europe made was
1) arrogantly pushing Russia away into the arms of China, militarily and politically and economically, instead of welcoming and integrating and trading with natural-resources-rich European-Christian Russia respectfully as equal partners after the fall of the USSR,
2) sending her hard-earned industry and technology and methodology to China, closing factories and reducing manufacturing capacity and capability and increasing unemployment at home and becoming dependant on a ethno-totalitarian-expansionist state that, besides being the biggest polluter in the world by far, doesn't play by the rules
and
3) opening her borders to unskilled and unwilling to assimilate non-Europeans, fracturing social cohesion, increasing crime and corruption, insecurity and suspicion.
Add to that,
a) lack of historical/ethnic/cultural confidence and clarity and purpose
and
b) loss of transcendental purpose and joy and love, i.e., life is good because God made life, be fruitful and multiply, enjoy family
and
c) overly-bureaucratic and regulatory and red tape
and
d) inflexible "secular" ideology with recently made-up metaphysical concepts and categories and quotas
and
e) lack of risk-taking and creativity, vision and cojones.
I think euorpe biggest problem is it's native population low fertility rate they should focus on that.
Its kinda hard to solve though
@@joaquimbarbosa896 ya of course it's hard its so weird that for most of the history of civilizations they have not faced this problem
@@g1a18 because women have rights in the first time in human history that’s a good thing but that’s why
@@webuyhouse8917 OK that good but it's lead to woman not having babies wich is a bad thing
It is a big problem, but it is also problem that is quite universal and not even remotely unique for Europe.
Please stop, I am at minute 24 and I can’t take anymore of these harsh truths 😭
Great video. Ah, this topic deserves a book a thousand pages long or a 20-hour video series. I wish you could dwell more deeply on the ideological, political and cultural aspects that have made Europe to lose faith in itself, in beauty and excellence. The economics situation is somewhat understandable - imperialism overexaggerated European importance, and other countries are starting to catch up - but it doesn't explain all the decline. I recommend reading books like Jared Diamond's Guns Germs and Steel, Ferguson's Civilisation, Piketty's Capital in the 21st century, Capital and Ideology, Spengler's Decline of the West, postmodern philosophy like Dialectic of Enlightenment, books on world systems theory and many many more to be more informed
Thanks! I sure will do more videos about this topic in the future.
@@nodruj8681 what's your problem with the book? would be interesting to know
You're right europe isn't anything like what it used to be. Considering that Germany is in for a hard time and that only means it will get worse for europe as Germany is pretty critical to the EU as a whole.
I watched Dick Cavett's interview with Janis Joplin where she said she didn't like performing in europe as europeans are "too cerebral". It says a lot about differences between USA and why it was the american culture that won the race. From the early beggining of boomers' lives it was all about fun and flowers, almost hedonistic, while europe kept being more masochistic-like.
Interesting insight! Thanks!
She died over 50 years ago. I don't think what she said applies today. There are so many festivals across Europe and they get pretty wild. Especially when it comes to metal.
Late comment. Banning guns will reduce gun deaths not violent deaths. I will say I feel a lot safer with my assaults' weapons then not, since last time my ancestors were in Europe a Austrian painter tried to wipe them off the face of the planet. And now there are a bunch of diverse people there that hold the same views towards me. Awesome video though love it.
Thank you!
28:00 from the point of view of the entrepreneur like me, it's much better in Europe than the US. You do want less competition, more niche and varied markets to have the slight chance of success. It's a survival bias to look at successful US business: most US entrepreneurs miserably fail and don't stand a chance unless having already an unfair advantage from the start due to the extreme competition.
Most entrepreneurs fail period. In Europe they make entrepreneurship difficult for no purpose
@@aar0n709 Still I think it is easier : markets are smaller and competition is even smaller. Of course it depends on the market but in general I find it true.
Did you watch Europa the last battle?
"And Schwitzerland... which is Schwitzerland"
Great video!
Either Switzerland or Schweiz. Not Schwitzerland :)
Thanks!
One thing you didn't mention in this video when you mentioned the high debt levels in EU countries:
The US debt and Chinese debt is now higher than most EU countries and not slowing down. Right now it looks like the years of growth in the US economy since 2008 were mostly build on debt and "cheap" money for tech companies to innovate with. US debt to GDP ratio is at 121% already and projected to grow to over 150% very soon. The interest payments on the debt will eat up most of their tax revenue by 2100.
While the US economy is strong, I am very worried about these debt levels. So if Europe falls and people "escape" to the US, they will end up in a country that will soon be crippled by debt.
15:45 This is almost a direct result of Europe's horrible intellectual property laws which effectively allow large companies to monopolise everything. Nobody ever talks about this because the entire political spectrum in the West agrees that this should be the case.
The American Constitution prohibits intellectual property from going too far but European influence has slowly been making it worse. For example "the Mickey Mouse law" which locked a lot of older works from entering the public domain was just Disney pushing the U.S. government to adopt a milder version of Europe's draconian copyright laws.
I don't see it as us Europeans being too culturally attached to the US culture, but rather joining in the globalized western culture. And also don't believe that it's pointless to follow US politics because, first of all it's a fun drama, and secondly, the same trends usually come here, 5 to 10 years later.
My opinion exactly. Most of the European countries growing in relevance are in the east of central-Europe, Czechia or Poland, there’s a higher degree of support for market-orientation there then in Western Europe where even the ‘liberals’ are dominated by socialists and technocrats.
that is true, the memory of communism is still present.
This. THIS. This comment needs more upvotes.
Not true at all. Try finding a job at international company in those places that is innovative, well paid and doesn't have the primary site abroad. Good luck with that. Central Europe is a dumping ground for old projects and a slave site.
Sie wohnen in Dresden?
it's the end of europe. owned 40 percent of the world economy. now we have nothing :c
China's presence in the tech economy is basically because they stole and copied others' tech. Baidu and Tencent both did this to varying extents, and even DJI had to draw heavily, Western Europe has a heavy presence in the sector, but not with the sort of companies consumers would see. Europe was the birthplace of the Linux Operating System (like Windows is an operating system), which is now run by more than 90% of servers around the world, and ASML's lithography machines are essential to the production of modern chipsets. You just would not know these names because they do not make consumer products.
A very large fraction of the code for Linux is contributed by American companies, and Linus Torvalds himself has been living in the US for like 20 years now.
Europe'a emulation of American culture is very apparent with this video, whose structure is very similar to the American creator named Whatifalthist
I am aware that many points I am raising were also raised by him in some of his videos, for example the cultural emulation, but it is just true, so it is hard not to speak about it. Nevertheless, I was reading and thinking about this subject years before I even knew that Whatifalthist exists and I hope I can offer somewhat more detailed view with better knowledge of Europe itself, since I am European.
@@kaiserbauch9092 I was joking more about the video structure than the content. I think it's a good video and you make a lot of good points, it just happens to watch like a Whatifalthist video
I don't disagree with the conclusions or views presented in the video, but I think the European video game industry is worth a mention. Perhaps it is not a strong force culturally, as the most successful games don't exhibit a distinct cultural identity, but at least economically it is an area where Europe is quite strong. You have titles like Minecraft, Grand Theft Auto, Battlefield, The Witcher, and even Candy Crush being developed in Europe, and big publishers like Ubisoft based there.
Great presentation. Europe has major internal contradictions, the likes of which cannot be resolved without some tectonic societal shifts. It's not going to end well.