Getting the "Switch 2" launch right
Vložit
- čas přidán 27. 05. 2024
- Following up my previous video ( • Delaying Switch 2 avoi... - Delaying Switch 2 Avoided This) with some more research and addressing some specific issues.
00:00 Their Number 1 Risk
02:08 The Scale of Their Task
04:26 Loss Leaders
07:44 Final Risk
A Nintendo content creator who bases stuff on reality instead of hopes and prayers. I love the other guys but this is refreshing
i've been dreaming of having this type of content. the stock curve for NTDOY just so strongly suggests that Nintendo has entered a different era. Through the WiiU it was so dominated by the popularity of the console and news cycles, now it's got a completely different pattern. It sure seems like the company is transitioning, and it's exciting to know the deeper story!
Nintendo 2017 was a blueprint on how to launch a system.
It released with one game and buggy, faulty systems that broke within days of using them
@@awshnapMy day 1 Nintendo Switch still works perfectly fine to this day. If you consider that buggy then that’s on you
@@ZappoNinja You are not everyone, there were a lot of defective units at launch. Also @awshnap isn't wrong, the Switch lineup was abysmal, it basically only had Breath of the Wild for quite some time as its only relevant first party game (which was not even an exclusive game to the console, as it also released simultaneously on the Wii U).
@@ninstars and yet that was a system seller
@@awshnap not mine or anyone else I know. Must be a you problem. This is why you keep the receipt and take it back to the store. Don't be dumb
I’ve been consuming Nintendo news since the IGN64 days, glad to have a new channel to subscribe to!
IGN64 wow I feel old lol
I subbed to you today and I’ve been binging, it’s so great having a channel that actually does its research properly and isn’t a victim of “Nintendo blinders”.
I’d like to hear your take on what’s happening with the FE4 remake. With the information right now I’m decently confident it’s coming this summer as an emergency filler title.
If that's true I'm sure getting FE4 remake would make a lot of people happy. Regardless of why it's being released
I agree, just instinctively, assuming it does exist - and Nate seemed very confident - it feels like a good bet for the July game (18 months since Engage, plus Three Houses and Three Hopes both launched in the late-June/early-July timeframe, they also released other RPGs like XBC3 and Octopath in the July slot, and it would make sense to announce late to give Engage more grace time). At some point I do want to do a deep dive on Intelligent Systems so maybe something will become clearer then. Thanks so much for the sub!
Why a FE4 remake instead of Xenoblade Chronicles X?!
@@dr.metroid6119Because there's too much that's floated around for the past several years for this game to not exist. XCX, on the other hand, has no buzz around it, and isn't worth the hassle or risk.
If it were up to my personal preference, we'd get neither game because FE and XC have some of the worst fanbases I've ever seen in video games, but it's not up to me.
You channel is 🔥🔥. Other channels go off speculation, this one goes off following the money. Great work!
Thanks!
Yes, the 3DS & Wii U were sold at a loss, but none of their other consoles were.
I also don't buy that the Switch costs $257 to manufacture... maybe at launch, but no way it didn't get significantly cheaper with how many were produced, using 2015 tech.
They went out on a limb with Wii U & 3DS because their predecessors were the most successful consoles in Nintendo's history up to that point, but they also never gave Wii U a price drop, nor the Switch.
And given the Nvidia leaks, the Switch 2 hardware has been set & ready since late 2022. They're also the richest company in Japan, have no debt, and tons of cash... again, unlike their competitors.
If anyone can afford it, it's Nintendo. Problem is I think they're waiting too long & risking alienating 3rd parties again.
Edit: Also, really good video. I'm not arguing with YOU, just whining out loud directed towards Nintendo 😅
Actually, certain parts on the Switch actually went up due to inflation, the weakening Yen also didn't help much.
Also no consoles sold as a loss? Ever heard of the GameCube and to a certain extent the n64…
Thanks for the comments. Yes, the $257 estimate was from launch. It may or may not be reliable but hopefully shows the scale of the potential outlay.
I strongly think that Nintendo cancel the T239 SOC and sacrifice a money to make a more powerful yet efficient modern SOC especially in DLSS & RT technologies
@Hazemann I don't think they will. Watch the video from Moore's Law, where he quotes those Nvidia employees from 2 weeks ago.
One of them says, "Switch 2 silicon has been done since late 2022. As far as I'm aware, *that Digital Foundry article looking at the T239 processor leaked from when we were hacked is an almost entirely correct summary..."*
He goes on to say, "We presented several options to Nintendo, including one that utilized Lovelace, and they *basically selected a cost-optimized version of Orin."*
This channel is awesome. Ive always been fascinated with the financials of the games industry just wish it was more multiplatform also covering Xbox, PlayStation, Steam and other publishers, developers and game comapnies.
Thank you! I will definitely look at other companies as they relate to Nintendo - especially development partners. Unlikely in the short-term I'll look into the broader games industry as it would take a lot more research - I know Nintendo a lot better. Perhaps at some point though. Appreciate the feedback!
the channel is called nintendo forecast
Would be awesome if the Switch U was not just backward compatible, but that the switch games also now run at max resolution with max frame rate, like odyssey had dynamic resolution and now it could take advantage of the hardware. Hopefully it will be strong enough to be easy to port to and not 2 generations behind.
The Switch 2 will use 2020 mobile hardware and will launch in 2025 or 2026. It will definitely have a lot of limitations. It will be weaker than a PS4 Pro GPU wise and will co exist with the PS6.
You're really good at this.
Without a new innovation I can’t see the new switch being successful
How so? PlayStation hasn’t really ever innovated anything ever (just more power, small features, and quality of life upgrades) and continues to be successful. So long as Nintendo doesn’t fumble the marketing like they did with the WiiU I see know reason why the Switch’s successor doesn’t easily do 100+ million unit sales. People have been chomping for more powerful switch for years at this point, so the demand is screaming high right now.
Very interesting post - thanks.
Really hope your channel continues to grow. I love the type of critical thinking videos that you make. Good stuff!
Thank you!
Great videos! Keep up the good work!
I really appreciate this video and the actual analysis you’ve done. Taking previous actions from the company and contextualising them for current market and societal conditions is the kind of analysis the community could use.
Thanks!
Great video! I just want to suggest including multiple background music tracks and putting them at a slightly lower volume as the single track became noticeably repetitive.
Thanks for the suggestion. I had some comments about the music being too low so I've tried it a bit higher for the couple of videos coming out at the moment. Different music is a good shout - I'm always torn between mixing it up and keeping it consistent so it kind of fades into the background. Appreciate the feedback.
It has been a while since I last commented, but I've been watching all of your videos since you returned. I am very happy you are gaining more subscribers this time, as this is the best Nintendo analysis channel on CZcams.
Great video, btw. One of the reasons (before the rumored delay) that I was certain that Nintendo would launch the next system in 2024 is that Furukawa always talks about having a smooth transition, avoid the strong dips in business... so I assumed this meant launching new hardware the moment Switch is down but still going (specially if no big titles are being released). However, the financial aspect is even more important and new hardware launches are costly, so having a more "soft" launch in 2025 (without the holiday rush) in possibly better macroeconomic conditions is really important to keep profitability.
Great thoughts. And I really appreciate you sticking with the channel - thank you!
This guy knows his stuff
Dude your content is great. Makes me feel like 2016 again
Thank you!
Nintendo Prime sent me here. Your content made me subscribe and stay.
Thank you - I really appreciate that!
Excellent content! If he keeps it up, the channels probably going to get changed to Gaming Forecast soon.
Great videos you've got! It's such a fresh take on what might be going behind the scenes, basing it off financial data rather than trying to predict patterns in games and development teams like other, less financially knowledgeable nintendo youtubers might do
Thank you for posting this. I've made comments here and there touching on this and people just shrugged it off like it isn't a factor. The world economy is in such a weird state right now I totally understand why they're waiting. Obviously this is one variable on a long list
I hope it launches this year!
Will be sucessefull probably. Awesome video!
You earned another subscriber. Great macroeconomical analysis on things that we've probably gotten a little too comfortable with speculating on 😅
Thank you!
Smart video, good points agree
Keep up the good work
"Nintendo risk" kinda cool system name.
Love your videos 🔥
I subscribe immediately
Thank you! Welcome to the channel!
With an actual business man as a head of nintendo right now i cant see them making the same mistakes they used to do years ago.
Meh Nintendo being to scarily can easily ruin the release as well. Nintendo is terrible at transitioning into a new console.
Great Video!
Thanks!
July 2025 Launch with 3D Mario and a steady stream of games is all Nintendo needs.
I feel like having the Switch launch beyond the end of the FY would be unlikely.
Games don't suddenly appear. Definitely not in this day and age. And if they had plans to last them until the end of 2025 with Switch games (which already seem to be ports and remasters of older games*), then you wouldn't have the throughput to get extra games for that prepared transition if you have to delay that to mid-2026. Yeah, Nintendo still has Metroid Prime 4, but whatever games get announced there, especially if they can get some hype, we will inevitably wonder if they'd be better off as Switch 2 games.
I mean, even for something like the newly announced Pokémon Legends...
* I ain't against ports and remasters. I'm not usually one to go after an already played game, but others might not have. Especially if from now onwards the consoles become back compat with the Switch era - however, if they aren't, it's going to be an issue about "preservation" if we end up having to rebuild our libraries...
They need to Re-Release a remastered Zelda Breath & Tears with 60fps. Not a downloadable upgrade.
I'd rather do a download able upgrade than a Re-Release.
Nintendo knows its fans like to double dip so I can see both happening
Should I step in?
Good thing we don't even have to speculate, since a "Switch 2" is a baseless rumour at best right now :)
Are you ignorant
Nope, just not naïve enough to believe every wish-fulfilment rumour that comes out.@@yukino4636
Nah, just not naïve enough to believe every dumb ass wish fulfilment rumour that comes out@@yukino4636
Just ignore the dev kits why don't. Follow Eurogamer they don't give a f*** about nda
The most important thing when launching a new system, bar none, is quality games. Nintendo know this, from experience. They are doing the right thing.
Hey cool, subscribed and now commented. Went to original video after finding this one.
Welcome to the channel!
this is such a great channel i just wish i understood your accent better😂
where is he from?
England
Were gonna have switch 2 2026. It will be worth the wait. It will also create massive library of games
I think getting it in 2025 during holidays in some limited edition bundle is the best option. Not too far from launch where new revisions are coming soon, but far enough to dodge all the early units problems
I disagree
Can’t wait for Switch 2 to release so that I can buy a Switch OLED for half the price
“Pwofits” lmao
All fun and games, nice video.
If this console really is a continuation of the 130M+ install base Switch family and sharing the same huge library of great games that still sell for full price, then selling it as a loss leader seems to me at least less risky than the Wii U.
True - but then again the Wii U also had the huge Wii library.
@@nintendoforecast That’s true, it seems similar on paper, but I think by 2012 Wii games were considered a lot less valuable than Switch games are now and you had to buy a separate Wiimote to play them. Wii games also felt old, especially with the graphical leap to the Wii U (and especially the competing PS4/Xbox). I think the Switch library is a lot more evergreen in comparison, especially if it’s true that they might get framerate and resolution bumps.
Fall 2026 is the right time
the main thing is bargaining between samsung ans tsmc
I’m sorry but Mario kart for an assumed cost of $70 isn’t going to be a sure fire hit. A lot of MK8Ds bulk comes from combo deals from retailers and pack in bundles that have been offered almost yearly since 2018 during holiday periods. While our only other source of comparison for $70 Nintendo is TOTK, it didn’t meet sales expectations, to a lot of consumers it didn’t feel like it was a $70 game and while it has sold well, it’s not doing the same volume as BOTW. Now if an open world story driven game that continued “redefining open world” wasn’t worth the $70, how the hell is casual game Mario kart going to be viewed differently? Most casual consumers already hate the $70 price point and frankly unless this game does anything short of knocking my socks off, I wouldn’t dare buy Mario kart for such an absurd price and I’m assuming I wouldn’t be alone in this. Switch games already get a lot of flack for being too expensive by consumers. I just don’t see that price point working with Mario kart.
I think we should get a remake of pong
I completely understand why backwards compatibility is a bane to 'Switch 2', but I think a lot of the Nintendo fans believe it to be the bare minimum to a console that is the successor of the Switch. Maybe their hardware upgrades are enough to motivate Nintendo fans to upgrade to play the same games in a much better quality?
Also, super interesting how the yen becoming stronger is actually a trouble for Nintendo, I've been following the yen crisis for a while, but could you tell me why you think the yen will bounce back in a year? Japan is doing amazing export-wise thanks to the downfall of the yen, so I'm not really sure how it would bounce back, or why there is incentive for it to? (Other than making citizens happy of course, the iPhones here are so expensive now :/)
Only reading financial press speculation - although the likelihood of a yen rally seems to have dipped recently so you may well be right.
@@nintendoforecast Yeah, I and a lot of people have started to believe that this is the new norm for the value of yen, it's sad, but this might be it. Unless the Japanese government decides to step in for its people, 'Switch 2' might have a lot more leeway in terms of its launch time.
Awesome video man, can't wait to see more of this!
…bizziii ninnjazz…nooo tajm…nooo gäääjmmm…
Maybe they call it Nintendo attach?
Maybe the music is too loud? Great video tho.
Thanks. I had some comments about the music/volume being too low so I've tried it a bit higher. I'll keep experimenting. Very grateful for the feedback.
Oh, so there was more behind Nintendo lamenting about the weak yen in WiiU era investor meetings beyond shifting the blame from themselves about why they weren't making profit?
Nintendo please release Wind Waker on the Switch and THEN launch the Switch 2
There will be a loss of interest if Nintendo launches all games at £59.99.
Meanwhile Sony doesn't even care because they can release an overpriced HD box with little to no games on it and the Sony fanboys will overhype it and buy it day one. But with Nintendo, everyone judges and nitpicks everything about it and says that the launch titles aren't enough and that it doesn't have games or that the console is too pricey.... honestly, what the heck?
Nintendo is going to wait to damn long. At this point it will launch along side the PlayStation 6 and Next Xbox. While being weaker than a PS4 Pro GPU wise.
Nintendo Attach March 2025
You are getting a pro version, not a 2.
The last video did numbers, but anyone else who then binged the rest of the channel will realise everything else is just baseless speculation and "pls nintendo gib me game i want"
I can tell you what will help the Switch 2's launch. Don't hype it up to the point that the real thing causes disappointment. In other words, stop speculating about it.
“Espect disappointment and you never get disappointed” Zendaya (MJ) 2021
the longer Nintendo waits to go next gen the worse that system will sell, Nintendo consistently failed to transition from a successful generation
It's literally the opposite, if they rush it, they will fail
@@trixniisamaFalse they are just cowards.
Yeah we will not get the Switch 2 until 2026 Q1. Nintendo is being to damn scared.
@@ZackSNetwork Why so aggressive 😭
So many people from this comment section need to chill. You simply do not understand business.
I just have a gut feeling that nintendo will fuck this up and will be by the wayside for a few years again. I've been sick of most of their business practices for like 2 decades.
I have that same gut feeling dude. The hardware in the Switch 2 is from 2020. So the technology will be 6 years old if it launches in 2026 which is what I believe. Mobile hardware in 2026 is weak and old as hell. Switch 2 will be a year or so early before the PS6 launches. So games will not be possible on the Switch 2 as its GPU will be weaker than a PS4 Pro.
Oh ffs they're a *multimillon dollar* company wdym "risk"???
Billion dollar
Yeah welcome to the real world
@@trixniisama What? Nintendo could literally retire as a company and have enough money in reserve to sustain themselves for ten plus years without a single product sold. That's how rich they are.
And you're telling me a single item (Switch2) failing is gonna break them???????????? Get real
@@Giggles_iJest Can you chill? The goal of a company isn't to just sustain itself. Nintendo's whole business relies on their console. If they don't have a popular console, if there isn't a huge enthusiasm for their product, they won't have shareholders' support. How is such a simple thing that difficult to grasp?
The switch 2 will fail.😂
Yeap lmao
We dont even know if their next console is the Switch 2 and if it is, it will sell nowhere near as well as the original.