Delaying Switch 2 avoided this
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- čas přidán 3. 03. 2024
- With the Switch 2 delayed (or internally delayed - probably), we need to ask why? This video explores the Nintendo financial situation and the world markets and looks at the cold hard numbers that show why late this year would be a terrible time to launch a new console - and why they still may not know when the launch date will be!
A Nintendo channel that focuses on their business decisions only, I can get into this
Not sure about "only" - I also do a lot of videos looking at the development teams and a few other things now and then. But definitely the aim is to go by data and evidence wherever possible! (Love your channel by the way!)
well dang, hello dude :o
100% I love Nintendo and I respect the hell out of how they do business. They look at different things than the mainstream and it's generally served them very well in doing that. I still own 200 shares in the company I bought back in 1997. Just really wanted to own a small piece of a great company.
@@nintendoforecast I know a warehouse insider in Ohio. Some shadow shell corporation is signing a ton of procurements for stock of *potatoes* in late 2024. It is said that Nintoto is behind this deal, they scramble to gather parts for their next little mario jumping video game toy,
@@nintendoforecast Either way, this "behind the scenes"-minded perspective is incredibly rare here on CZcams and quite fascinating
so thankful we finally have someone to showcase the BUSINESS SIDE of Nintendo’s decisions.
Rip yuzu
Most people didn't because it's pretty self explanatory to be fair. Nintendo sells Switch games, so Nintendo doesn't want you illegally downloading and playing Switch games.
IKR
@@FoxyDrewYuzu devs were making money off it too. Shooting themselves in the foot.
@@HandledToaster2"WE HAD A GOOD THING YOU STUPID SONUVA BTICH.
We had emulators! We had ROMS. We had everything we needed and it all ran like clockwork!
You could have shut down your patreon, emulated games, and played as much as you needed.
But no. You just had to sell your patreon subs. You and your greed and your ego. You just had to be the man. If you'd just done your job, known your place, we'd all be fine right now."
Nintendo having a console fully developed years before release isn't unusual for them. They tend to start R&D on their next console just after, and sometimes even slightly before, their current console launches. Unlike many other corporations, Nintendo has always been focused on the long term rather than the short term.
That's why the switch has the power of a game cube 👍
@@captainhakob814 The Switch is roughly as powerful as an Xbox 360
@@LouisSubearthYou gotta remember, the WiiU was more powerful than the 360. The switch is in a position where it just kinda falls behind Xbox One and PS4 even though it was released after.
@@captainhakob814if that’s true then the gamecube can play Skyrim. Making the GameCube years ahead of its time. So basically you’re talking 💩
@@captainhakob814 The Xbox 360 was more powerful than the GameCube, the Wii U was more powerful than the Xbox 360 and the Switch is more powerful (even if slightly) than the Wii U. Don't talk out of your ass.
Interesting analysis; as gamers we do have a tendency to forget the 'company' part when looking at games companies, and the complexities if international manufacturing that comes with it
Dont agree with on/off production theory. Nintendo would scale production according to yen fluctuation. Also they could adjust launch price to compensate. The "delays" might be due towhat the leaks suggest.
@Refreshment01 both could well be factors in their decision-making; and the production scale could be influenced by currency fluctuations.
Eg. If, due to adverse exchange rates, production is running at 50% capacity, then it would take longer for their desired launch stock level to be reached - delaying the launch date.
They could further justify this decision by pointing to a more varied and polished line-up at launch, in addition to more favourable exchange rates improving the profitability of initial sales.
@Refreshment01 Interesting point. I'd say it's very difficult to adapt in this way once you have physical products requiring storage etc. but of course you may well be correct.
Thanks!
If Nintendo drop the price for Switch Lite to $150 & Switch OLED to $300 (V1 & V2 discontinued) and release a new color transparent version in end of this March or April or Jun or September, it's will sold gigantic ❤
Remember the switch 2 hasn’t even been announced yet so from Nintendo’s perspective or from the perspective of someone who doesn’t follow Nintendo news or rumors, nothing has been delayed and everything is on schedule.
Yup I've heard rumors but nothing official and as a casual who own a lite and doesn't follow Nintendo on everything, it really isn't a big deal. We ll get an announcement when we get the announcement then the waiting will begin
This is basically just damage control by idiots that have been yelling 'Switch Pro this year or next!' since the Switch released in 2017, then switched to 'Swtich 2 in 2024' when the OLED model was announced and their dumb 'Pro' predictions wouldn't work anymore. I've been saying a 2024 release was unlikely for quite a while. Unlike all those dumb 'experts' I've actually paid good attention to Nintendo's patterns and that it simply wasn't feasible.
That's not true. Things get delayed internally all the time, and that is still a delay. They've been developing the Switch 2 for years, and likely the original plan was to launch in 2024. You can't predict things like currency changes that far in advance
@@tastyfalcon1788 how do we know things got delayed? No official comment from Nintendo- on anything next gen related. For all we know everything is going according to schedule.
@@tastyfalcon1788 we re still in 2024 tho
It's great to come across a Nintendo channel that analyses other aspects to the company! As an investor this is all very interesting.
Thank you!
Yes, it's a wonderful lens for those of us who both run businesses and love video games❤
To me with this knowledge in hand, and with the potential backwards compatibility of Switch 1 games with Switch 2. The killing of YuZu makes even more sense as for the timing. I think as it gets closer to release they’re going to look towards killing or shutting down any way people could play their classic games. Look at Emu Paradise, around for years and years and years, and then right as the Switch Online service is about to start offering classic games. Wham, shut down.
What I’m saying is they’re going to look for every mortally grey area and end as many avenues or off ramps that potential consumers could take advantage of in order to maximize their impact for their projects.
@@TheXeroLinkvery similar to them ending the online for Pokémon games and the eventual end of moving Gen 3 mons up to current gens
Tell them to make a new Star Fox. I ain't buying anymore Nintendo games until this 8 year drought ends
Nintendo has learned its lesson with the Wii U, they NEED a console-selling first-party title to launch with the system for it to have any chance. The Switch launched with BOTW, which unequivocally had a massive effect on the sales and initial momentum of the console. Then Mario Odyssey launched later that fall, continuing the already strong momentum even more. The Wii U was not afforded such a privilege, so all of its wind was taken out of its sails before it even embarked. They are likely waiting for a strong line-up of first-party system-selling games to launch with the next console before they release it.
Do individual games really affect the sales of an individual console *that* much?
@@ShadowOfThePitYes, they really do, especially when your system is not as powerful as the competition's. At that point, you are entirely reliant on either 1. a gimmick or 2. A strong lineup of first-party titles. In Nintendo's case, it's usually both.
@@ShadowOfThePit duh. Only a die hard collector buys a first edition console if the starting game roster is weak.
Whereas consoles with 3-5 strong launch exclusives sell better since people tend to put off upgrading till there's a game they actually want on the new consoles
@@ShadowOfThePitand consoles like the wii that come bundled with a full and strong game tend to sell even better. People just want good value on a console they can play fun games in for about a decade . That's why Nintendo sells well despite using lower spec hardware.
The problem here is that Nintendo is the only one that actually has exclusive titles (or at least try, because emulation exists).
you’re making way more interesting content than most nintendo youtubers keep going homie
Thank you - appreciate the support!
You don't really look though lol
@@0008loser all nintendo specific channels focuses on the games, not deep diving their investor reports
There are a lot of rumors that there will be a New Mario Kart game in 2025. By delaying the Switch 2, it ensures that we don't have to wait a whole year for Mario Kart. Well I can't wait for the next 3D Mario game. Mario Kart sells much more than the main series games. So this is a good desision
Those rumors are correct. The current project name is Mario Kart X.
Also, the new 3D Super Mario game will be build with Unreal Engine.
And Pokemon z-a being a launch title
@@calikcoolboygames That is also true. Pokemon is the largest multimedia franchise of the world. There are a lot of people who only buy a Nintendo console to play Pokemon
@@calikcoolboygames Yep!
For a multinational company like Nintendo who has been dealing with currency fluctuations for decades I would assume they have currency hedges in place to protect themselves against sudden movements in the yen against various currencies like USD, EUR, GBP, etc.
Nintendo has always played strongly to their home market and one of the problems with that is that the consoles and games they sell in Japan will need to be priced in yen and will need to look like appropriate prices for consoles and games. If the price of a console doubles when the price of a bowl of ramen hasn't changed much since the previous generation, Japanese customers are going to balk at that.
Not to mention Nintendo has companies in multiple countries that deal in their local currency
They probably do lock in prices for their hardware like a lot of other big companies do. I don't know if the Yen is going to have a good time next year though.
Japanese companies famously record lessons from past business mistakes or sudden events, and hedge around them at all times. This is why Japanese auto manufacturers continued working during covid supply chain failures, but companies like Ford had many thousand trucks incomplete vehicles stored on football fields.
Never thought about currency exchange rates. My initial thought for Nintendo delaying announcement of the Switch 2 was because they want to avoid the "Osborne effect" (announcing a new model too early, causing sales of the current model to plummet as customers wait for the new model to release), as the current Switch is still selling well.
The thing about a price drop on switch games… people are pretty adamant that the “Switch 2” be backwards compatible. If it’s not, it’ll be a bad look and it could tank the system. If it IS, then I don’t see Nintendo selling games at a greatest hits price as that would greatly cut profits and undervalue their games. People would no longer be buying old games cheap for a dying system, but rather buying the classics cheap for the new hot system. It can cannibalize sales of new games.
Excellent point I hadn't thought through. Completely agree.
The WiiU is backwards-compatible, and bombed. The Switch isn't, and has done quite well. So that's a weak analysis.
Nintendo not having two consoles going at once is an issue though, as it makes a new launch way more risky. They can't fall back on sales of a cheaper system, if the new one doesn't take off. Backwards compatibility helps elevate that, maybe.
@@YOSHIERIDERWii-U sold poorly due to bad marketing and other factors. Being backwards compatible is a positive, not a negative.
@@ju2auperhaps the point that he is trying to say, is that its a neglible positive. as long games are good with consistent release, and there is good marketing, backward compatibility isnt required, and will drift to dust in about a year or two
@@YOSHIERIDERThe Wii U and Switch used totally different types of media, so it was besides the point. People didn’t expect it because of that. GBA was successful and backwards compatible with a previously successful system. Same with DS and GBA games. Then 3DS with DS. Wii with the not so successful GameCube.
it was recently calculated that Nintendo is one of the richest (or most profitable) companies in Japan. I don't exactly know how that calculation was made, but it's fair to assume that Nintendo has a massive war chest (funds) that they can sit on for a long time while they plan their prefect switch 2 launch
Thanks!
I heard that in terms of how much money they currently have, and then subtracting debts, Nintendo is the richest company in Japan - companies like Toyota and Sony have too much debt to be ahead on that specific metric even if they make more money overall
Another thing to keep in mind - although they are the richest company in Japan, they are nowhere NEAR the richest company in the world. They may be top 300, but the difference in between them (around 70bil) and let's say, Microsroft (3.1 **trillion**) is ridiculous. That is a bit over 40 times more than nintendo - and Nintendo, being such an iconic company is just waiting to be cannibalized by other company - so their chest fund isn't big as it seems to be. There is a great video by Moon Channel about it.
No need to assume how big their war chest is, just check they annual report. Iirc it was around 8bil USD worth of yen both at the start and end of their fiscal year (which is from 01-04-2022 to 31-0-3-2023
@@FinnishArsonisttheir war chest is about 8b USD just check their annual report.
And there is almost no way Nintendo is going to be bought out by an American company. There are way to many Japanese share holders that will not let go of their shares to a foreign company. Shareholders like the Japanese Central Bank.
It is possible that they get bought out, but the chance is pretty slim. A hostile takeover is nearly impossible from what I can see
a lot of perspectives i have not previously heard around these types of discussions. subscribed.
Thank you!
“Flick a… switch” 👏
Really interesting analysis, nice one
Thanks! 😃
I just have my fingers crossed that I'll be able to afford it when it comes.
Me too - more time to save I guess!
Fingers crossed man 🤞🏾
Exactly. If it were to come out today. I would be able to afford it but I would be tight for a month
At the beginning of the year I had a budget to either buy the switch 2 or a new 3ds xl. 2 months later and I picked the right choice!
You probably won’t
I was thinking Nintendo could’ve delayed the Switch 2 to March 2025 to have a stronger first year and holiday all around. Releasing the console early in the year will allow it to build up enough momentum throughout the year to lead to a great holiday with sales. It’s what they did with the Switch and it ended up working really well, and it could be what they’re planning for Switch 2
Excellent points! I think you’re right about a lot of this. However, inflation is hitting consumers here in Japan too currently, which makes people less inclined/able to buy new luxury goods like game hardware and software…and poor sales of a new Nintendo console here at home would be especially bad for a lot of reasons, even if sales were good elsewhere.
It’s also worth noting that luxury goods (in contrast to necessities) like electronics always carry a large price premium here (compared to the US): even back when the exchange rate was more favorable to JPY, TVs would often cost 3-4 times the US; and computer hardware has a high markup compared to other markets as well, even without factoring in currency. And salaries here are relatively low. Before the exchange rate was this heavily in favor of USD, it was almost always cheaper for me to buy this stuff in the US and pay to have it shipped to Japan AND pay customs duty/tax on it, rather than buy it in Japan.
And even if/when the trend reverses and JPY gains substantially against USD and others, while that’s good for Japan in some ways, it’s going to have negative impacts as well (foreign sales, tourism, etc.) And if the Bank of Japan intervenes… So while, again, I think you raise a lot of really good points, the complex nature of all of the factors involved and their interactions still leaves many questions - I’m sure for Nintendo leadership as well. Cheers! :)
Thank you - some brilliant insights I hadn't considered.
Wages are relatively low… compared to what? And just stating that wages are “low” in a vacuum is meaningless. Average wages in the UK are similar to Japan, except the UK has a cost of living crisis while Japan does not. In developed western countries, millennials and zoomers can barely afford rent and purchasing a home is completely out of their reach. The Japanese are not paupers, they have an excellent cost of living especially when compared to the west.
I live in Japan, but I’m from the US. So as I mentioned multiple times above, that’s my frame of reference. The average monthly salary in Japan is 310000¥, which is currently roughly 1600£. While that goes a long way in the countryside here, there are few jobs outside of the major cities. And the jobs there are pay much, much less than that, more on the order of 150000-200000¥. Japan has a lot of things going for it, but wages are chronically stagnant (among other economic issues), and that has only just begun to change within the last year or so. I’m not going to comment on the UK because I don’t have any experience or expertise in that area. But I do when it comes to Japan. Anyway, something to consider.
What the next console will need is a shared eshop with the switch having backwards compatibility physical and digital, and the switch online digital consoles should also be compatible. If they do that the system will have many games for new buyers to play.
In my fantasy world what I'd like is for them to go all in to backwards compatibility, and give an official console the same capabilities as a hombrewed 3DS or Switch 1 loaded up with emulators: with an e-shop that contains substantial catalogs of games from old consoles that can be purchased for $1-$5
Or ya know, do something actually meaningful to combat their piracy issue rather than antagonizing their community over it more
This analysis is spot on. My comments here are some suggested additions for future analysis.
I think you should also give some weight to Nintendo’s cyclical success/flop history with commercial success for new consoles. I fear that the Wii-like wins of Switch create the wrong mood in the Nintendo corporate culture. I suspect there is significant fear that the Switch 2 will be the Wii U and not the 3DS. They want to avoid producing a more powerful and creative platform that cannot gain traction in the market because of changing trends and marketing around gaming.
I think there is a possibility that Nintendo is not considering price drops to juice demand. Part of this concerns global inflation, and one view is that prices remaining the same means that their games are cheaper than before without altering the MSRP. I think that they prefer product line differentiation to achieve this price adjustment goal, and they have historically held game price points constant, so as never to play mind games with the consumers of their products. I think Nintendo detests the steam-like price crashes that happen for mainstream multi platform titles, because it spreads the belief that games become will (and perhaps should) devalue quickly. Nintendo is trying to produce fine wine with their first party games, and they are sensitive to their legacy. The switch remakes of previous generation content highlight the fact that Nintendo sees value in every vintage and wishes to celebrate the successes of prior generations.
Yes, I'm coming round to this way of thinking as well and you've expressed it very effectively. Thanks for watching and commenting!
I love a channel like this. Definitely subscribed. Love the analysis and speculation!
Thank you!
Finally someone that presents facts instead of rumors. thank you.
I saw order bills from Ohio that suggests they are stocking up on potatoes for a May 2025 release.
I like how you speak, the terms and the ways you structure the sentences is nice and well written, took me a second to understand a few of them a couple times, but it was really nice, I'm still learning this language after all
Nice Forecast! Great vid!
well considering that state of global shipping is kind of tenuous at best at the moment with the ongoing piracy crisis in the gulf of aden and the dire state of the panama canal and issues with the suez canal. i am not at all surprised they would hold off untill things start to stabilise.
Don't use boats associated with killers.
Tbh, I was expecting another 10 minute video with only 30 seconds of viable content. . . I was completely wrong. I'm a multi platform guy (PC, PS5, Switch) but I regularly rotate on Switch and PS5. It depends what I'm doing. If om 'on the go' then Switch. If I got 'time to chill' Ps5. Yet, Switch has more titles I'm interested in. So it was slightly shocking seeing the analytics of it all. Good coverage.
12-18 month launch window should be pretty solid
Wow I'm surprised you don't have a lot of subs! Underrated channel. Quality videos :)
Thank you!
1:30 seconds in and you have more sense than the vast majority of Nintendo commentators out there. A strong initial lineup + good 2nd and 3rd waves are crucial for hooking and rehooking casual fans and fans on the fence.
Thank you!
I love the business spin you have on your channel. As a business man myself I really appreciate all those details
Another reason I think Nintendo is waiting to release Switch 2 is because they are waiting for Switch 1 to surpass PS2 as the highest selling console of all time. They aren't super close right now, but given current sales trends this milestone is fully achievable by the end of 2024.
When switch 1 hits ps2 I hope they show off switch 2
companies dont care about any of that
This must've been a lot of work to put all the pieces together, Thank you for this!
Thanks for watching!
you should certainly do these types of videos for all sorts of companies. This was amazingly thorough and enjoyable to watch please make more
Thank you! Interesting idea about doing other companies. I'll definitely think about this.
I heard that there’s still shortages of key components that are increasing costs. Nintendo might also wish to wait for component costs to drop, especially if the console is planned to have a reasonable RRP.
The next year is definitely no matter what happens going to be interesting. So many possibilities and yeah the balancing act Nintendo is going to have to do next console generations is going to be either an amazing glorious example of how to do it or a complete and utter failure where things just fall apart.
And I guess there's a possibility of somewhere in the middle too but we'll have to see. Honestly considering what's on the line I don't really see any chance of it being a neither success or failure it's either going to be one or the other with a very slim to none margin of error.
You're channel is amazing. I love Nintendo and love tracking their sales data. Keep up the uniquely insightful analysis!
Thank you!
This is actually such a great video and the analysis is very interesting. I think you have a point because a while back it was reported that a few physical games were no longer being made to be sold at retailers like links awakening or fe engage and more. This could be due to them being removed to rebrand the games as nintendo selects. It makes a lot more sense now that you mention all these points.
I dont think they will cut prices on the OG switch because i assume backwards compatibility will be a thing on the switch 2.
I’m looking forward to a new Nintendo Golf game. The one on switch is good, but not enough courses. I hope they build on the latest version, same game play, but with way more courses and updates.
I need a new Pilotwings
Fantastic analysis I'm very impressed! I've not seen many other people make content like this, keep up the good work!
Thank you - I appreciate it!
Wow that was such a thorough deep dive. Gave me a new perspective, thanks
Thank you for watching!
Thanks for providing a point of view not based entirely in an emotional reaction. Very good analysis
Thank you!
great new channel reminds me when i found spawnwave back in the nx days
Wow, thanks!
Really insightful video! Nice to see a video about Nintendo's decisions in a business perspective!
Great new channel. Subscribed! New 3D Mario launch title HYPE
Thanks!
It's hilarious how even the stone age original PSP had more features than the Switch lmao.
Yet the switch sells like hot cakes lmao
Switch > PSP
Lmao the nintendo kids above
The switch is the only platform in the pass two decades to never receive a price drop :0
Yes The Wii U did not received a price drop either but many retailers in the states where, just to get ride of them.
Actually, the WiiU had a price drop before the launch of the PS4 and XBox One.
I saw a Wii U still at full price until it got removed in 2019 (yes 2 years after the Switch).
Great job! ✨ Context is everything👌
Wow. Well done. Great analysis, makes complete sense.
Usually, corporations hedge their foreign exchange risk. Basing a company's strategy on riding FX movements is a sure way to destroy shareholder value.
Yeah, I would be surprised if Nintendo doesn't have futures or forward contracts... Would this make the FX hypothesis invalid?
@@bilalusang362 even without any hedges, you still wouldn't have a business plan involving speculation in foreign exchange rates. If you as an investor want to speculate in the Yen strengthening to the USD, you would buy USDJPY futures, not invest in Nintendo to do so.
while interesting, i just really hope there is a switch. the rumors and speculation tend to outweigh conversations about other analysis towards their strategy and business decisions. not that i completely agree with some of their practices or lack thereof when it comes to preservation, but it’s still a company that will maybe do things in good faith, but we will see.
This was a fantastic and enlightening analysis. Thank you!
Great video! This is making entirely good sense to me
from what ive heard from "insiders" is that the switch 2 is having some issues with battery efficiency, and thats the main reason it is being delayed, they are trying to optimize there games so they don't kill the battery in an hour, in handheld mode.
Idk if optimizing the games would help much. I suppose with first part games, sure. But what about everything else? They'd have to fix the batteries
@@tumultuousv i don't really know, i was just told that it was delayed because they weren't happy with battery life and it is likely due to the custom chip needed a bit of software optimization.
Interesting take. Although if Nintendo's games are struggling, third party titles would be nearly unplayable so if that were true, I'd think they'd be looking at a hardware solution rather than optimising individual games.
Let me ask my uncle, take one guess where he works?
Would be disappointing if true. I couldn't care less about handheld mode. My Switch has never left the dock and Switch 2 would be much the same. I wish they'd just release a console only version that doesn't have to worry about battery life. It's so annoying to go to play a new Switch game after months of drought and the thing doesn't work because the battery is dead. It's plugged into the wall, I don't care about the battery, *_power on!!!_*
00:17
It's not speculation at this point. Multiple different sources, some who actually work at Nvidia, have stated that the SOC for the next Nintendo console has been *finished* since late 2022.
which is absurd imo. Will quickly fall behind.
It's already behind the current gen Microsoft and Sony consoles. Nintendo hasn't been competitive with hardware since the N64. They say it's because they don't want to sell hardware at a loss like the MS and Sony, and because they care more about having good games at launch than rushing out bleed edge tech.
@@itranscendencei7964Arguably gamecube, was about as fast as the PS2 (faster in others slower in some).
@@Thelango99 Eeeeh. With heavy optimizations, sure. PS2 and Xbox definitely had more raw horsepower though. GC was my favorite home console from my favorite generation of home consoles, but it still wasn't quite as strong as the other two though.
@@itranscendencei7964 You couldn't be more wrong. The GC destroyed the PS2 in raw power and then some. It is almost as powerful as the Xbox. PS2 did have a pretty special CPU that allowed it to do some crazy stuff, but overal the GC was just more powerful. Just look at Sonic Heroes. It's 60 fps on the GC and XBox, compared to the PS2 version running at 30 fps and having worse graphics on top of that.
Subscribed. I've been a Nintendo bull since 2022 and have been waiting for this kind of coverage. All of my research led me to believe that Nintendo is one of the safest investments you can find. Built a great average around $10/50 pre split. I'm going to have to check out more of your videos!
Thank you and welcome to the channel!
Thank you for making this!!!
Thank you for watching!
While generally Nintendo has avoided selling it’s consoles at a loss; the Wii U was sold at a slight loss at launch. I can’t recall when exactly those figures changed, but it was notable at the time because Nintendo never before sold their consoles at a loss.
I keep telling my friends that 2024 will be the final lap for the Switch, releasing Metroid Prime 4 and some Zelda Remasters might be the hits this year.
Metroid prime 4 lol, don’t think that game will ever see the light of day. Would be awesome tho
I doubt anything comes this year beside maybe some 3rd party remake. Like tomb raider that just came out
@@NETIERRASArlo has a good video on this, Prime 4 may be a launch title for Switch 2, and that’s why we haven’t seen anything on it
Interesting... Thank you for the video.
Thanks for watching!
Great analysis. Great video. Thanks!
I really hope they call it the Super Switch
Best system of all time after that hopefully
Hopefully that doesn't cause a Wii U situation where people think it's just a Switch Pro.
@@PedroMatos482 I mean, it worked for the SNES.
@@markkoetsier6475 Yeah but that was in 1991 when console revisions weren't as normal as they are today. You could easily tell that the games were undergoing a major evolution in 16-bit also
@@PedroMatos482 True that.
I’ve been saying this for months. Switch is coming LATE 2025! People called me crazy
Late 2025 is crazy.
How the fuck do you expect people to listen to what you say? Who are you lol
@@champcee7 Indeed. Switch has been outdated and in need of replacement since it launched in 2017. It couldn't even run its big launch title at a stable 30 fps. Thing is a potato and I keep skipping Switch games because they run at atrocious framerates.
We needed Switch 2 a few years ago. Nintendo needs to stop moving at a glacial pace and release. The games are suffering. And I couldn't care less if they have to make less money to do it.
@@mjc0961And do you think the Switch 2 will not be outdated even if it were launched this year? Lol
It will be Switch 1 vs the 8th Generation power gap all over again.
2025 seems to me like a neat year to launch a new console.
This is such a well researched and put together video
Thank you - I really appreciate it!
Finally! Someone who understands macro/micro economics discussing videogames!!!
This is actually exactly what I’ve been suspecting too for the Switch 2 strategy: timing the release later in this headwind market will only move it closer to wherever the tailwind begins! Love the idea of drumming up hype with lowering prices on the current gen during a time that everyone will deeply appreciate lower prices. While moving inventory and getting that capital back as well. Love it! 😄👏
It feels like some of this video is assuming that the next Switch isn't going to be backwards compatible.
Which is untrue because Nintendo themselves said that they were focusing on making the Switch and its software last with their next system. Pretty sure there's an article on Nintendo Life on it.
Good point.
heard pikmin music, know its gonna be great
They have a very narrow window for this to work, piracy is growing and people are tired of waiting for sales etc. Would be cool because I would increase my switch game collection but I don't think the vast majority of buyers would fall for it.
I don't mean to get political, but I think Nintendo is trying to get the Nvida chips out of Taiwan and stockpile them in Japan (or wherever) to being manufacturing/assembling the systems there.
Just in case assets from Taiwan become "unavailable for travel" soon
An important point. It's possible. In the short-term, presumably this is more in Nvidia's issue, though I'm sure Nintendo puts pressure on them. I believe Nvidia contract from the new chip factory at Kumamoto but I don't know if any Nintendo chips are from Japan. I'll investigate.
Or even just the costs of shipping during a turbulent time really.
If the leaks are true, the chips are made by Samsung in 8nm (meaning it will be made in South Korea with a very popular & cheap architecture making it not dependent to ONE company
Is the “unavailable for travel” related to a possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan or something else?
@@matthewdunaway7622 Chinese invasion
Counterpoint. Cash is king. My sense is Nintendo is sitting on a AAA first party game for a launch title and they need to time the ‘Switch2’ release with that game. That game wasn’t hitting its project timelines (we are seeing AAA game issues across the industry) and thus here we are. Second counterpoint, hardware specs that were built for let’s say 2023 with a 7-8 prime lifecycle, and you delay, the project sales on the backend of said lifecycle if launched late could fall off a cliff and Nintendo wants to avoid the cycle of yet another disastrous piece of hardware in terms of unit sales following a successful one…not to mention smart phone gaming power is finally taking off putting unknown pressure on future sales towards the end of the decade as new competition causes havoc.
Very credible counterpoints.
Very thoughtful analysis - well done!
Thank you!
This channel is a breath of fresh air. Take my like and sub
Thank you!
So like... Nintendo's investor obligations and the Japanese fiscal year (March/April) probably puts its new console release around April again, likely in 2025. Expect marketing to be pushed after the start of 2025 new year.
Sounds plausible.
@@nintendoforecast I think there's a highly likely chance. NOJ are heavily (Japan) domestic conscious with a lot of their business activities. March/April is also during their major school holidays as well so it hits both that and their investor obligations.
@@jackyfan Very good point about the Japanese school holidays.
@@nintendoforecastI’ll get egg on my face when Nintendo does something completely different lol. But I think the logistics schedule atm seems like they’re preparing to launch April next year. Who knows! I think part of the fun is the wait and not knowing!
I'm glad there's someone else looking into those charts & graphs like I am.
Because if you look at the details of those charts & graphs, you would KNOW that Switch 2 was NEVER coming in 2024.
Now you added to my reasoning with the comparison of currencies & the regional inflations/deflations.
But it only underlines what I know following how Nintendo operates in the videogame business.
THERE WAS NO WAY Switch 2 was coming out in 2024 due to the sustained & stable success of Switch 1.
Nintendo said from Switch's very beginning that they were trying to redefine how console generation cycles play out.
What Nintendo REALLY means by that is that they are REVERTING to the kind of cycles Nintendo preferred & once had.
Outside of the 3rd Generation & the 8th Generation, Nintendo is always LAST to shift to a new console generation.
Nintendo prefers to drag the generation out to maximize game sales (their bread & butter) which maximizes console sales (representing the potential of game sales). This also maximizes mindshare as games & console become iconic.
They are only forced into a new generation by new disruptive competition or holding ground against old existing competition.
That's how they got caught in the 5-year console cycle that everybody mistakenly thinks is normal. It's not normal.
Nintendo HATES the 5-year console cycle & prefers a cycle more like Game Boy's 12-year cycle.
Sell as long as you can to max out new game sales, evergreen game sales, & console proliferation.
Nothing is really shaking the Switch 1 up especially as the videogame industry is crashing with all of the layoffs.
Steam Deck is not really competition enough & 8th Gen Switch is still holding its own against 9th Gen PS5 & XBox Series.
So why rush a new unproven generation when they can still ride out a still-strong proven generation?
You mention the declining sales of the original(ish) Switch model in this video but there's a reason for that decline.
IT IS PURPOSEFUL. Nintendo is fading that model out ON PURPOSE. They're quietly replacing it with the OLED Model.
I have been noticing this for some time & that's why you see the soft gradual declines in Switch hardware.
It's not demand. It's shifting within the supply. The Red & Blue Switch OLED showed me this reality.
It looks just like original Switch except it's OLED. The original OLED was White. Red & Blue is the 'default' Switch.
Market realities that you mention here is part of why Nintendo's doing this.
It's a stealth price increase by $50 but doesn't look so since original model is still being offered though it's phasing out.
By holding the $300 price for phasing out original Switch & moving $350 OLED model as the new 'default' Switch, Nintendo is doing a price cut AND price increase at the same time. By not raising the price due to inflation, that counts as the "price cut".
But by moving a premium model like OLED into the 'default' position, that counts as the "price increase". Sneaky!
That's why I knew Nintendo was lowballing that 15 million projection all along. They knew they were going to beat that.
And by "overcoming" their initial projection & RAISING the projection afterwards, they look stronger on the fiscal report.
All elaborate psychology from Nintendo here & most people are not tuned in on it.
Switch 1 is STILL strong even though it is past its peak. If you're selling between 15 to 20 million a year, you're strong.
Let's keep in mind that a PEAKING PS5 sold 8.2 million while an AGING Switch sold 6.9 million in their 3rd Quarters.
That's only a difference of 1.3 million. PS5 is at high end of 9th Gen power while Switch is at low end of 8th Gen power.
PS5 has just come out of supply chain problems & is awakening in its 4th year while Switch coasts in its 7th year.
Yet Sony is laying people off, is not making the profits margins that they should, is exploring 3rd party-styled porting to other platforms outside of PlayStation, will not have games from its 1st party for over a year, is cancelling major projects...
...and most of all its president said 2023 was PS5's peak & its lifespan will be shortened (halfway point early).
Nintendo hasn't laid off anybody, is giving staff raises, & is actually hiring as they build their Nintendo Museum.
Microsoft is beginning to give Nintendo & everybody else their XBox games. Nintendo unlike others remain exclusive.
So there's no need to rush Switch 2 to market. Nothing to compel them to jump to a new generation.
Nintendo would only be competing with themselves & that's how you cannibalize your success.
I don't see Switch 2 coming in early 2025 EITHER. Holiday 2025 makes more sense to me at earliest.
Switch 1 still has lots of life in it. All Nintendo has to do is deliver games for it & build up the launch library of Switch 2.
Release Switch 2 AFTER you complete your work with Switch 1 & not a moment before.
Nintendo has ONE platform now not TWO so each transition has to be done with great care.
The generations are only going to get longer not shorter. 5-year console cycle will never return.
AAA game market crashing proves the limitations of the graphics race. Graphics are over.
Nintendo warned about this outcome 20 years ago.
There's a lot in this but it's worth noting that Nintendo makes better margins on the OG Switch than the Oled so I don't know they'll be incentivised to fade it out until they have a good reason (e.g. they want to shift production resources).
@@nintendoforecast I know. That's what makes it notable.
They push OLED even though margins are better on Original.
But that could be because of the phasing out of the old Tegra chip by Nvidia that went in original Switch.
Maybe OLED has a slightly different Tegra chip inside which is why they're pushing that one & fading the original one. OLED gets bigger every year it's out. It's popular despite the price hike.
Original Switch might not able to be made anymore so maybe they're depleting the old stock.
Props to you for good analysis and critical thinking in a comment section.
I differ in opinion with just one of your points and it's that I think a mid 2025 release seems more like Nintendo's style followed by a special edition bundled console (probably Pokémon or Zelda) to really boost sales towards the end of that first year.
@@DanyTheMe Thank you, DanyTheMe. I like to break things down & speak the unspoken view.
The reason I see Holiday 2025 as the earliest release for Switch 2 is because Nintendo won't want to depress their 2024 Holiday sales announcing Switch 2 too early. They want to move that old stock.
If you announce Switch 2 this year in 2024, then Switch 1 sales will begin to dip.
I don't think that Switch 2 announcement will even come before April 2025. I'm dead serious.
They have to start a whole new fiscal year before announcing Switch 2.
We're still in 2023-2024 fiscal year until the end of this March & 2024-2025 fiscal year starts this April.
I think we won't hear wind of Switch 2 until the 2025-2026 fiscal year starting NEXT April.
Gives time to clear older Switch stock & builds anticipation for new Switch with holiday boost.
But we'll see. I think Nintendo STILL has some Remastered Metroid Primes to release before Switch 2.
And I see Metroid Prime 4 finally showing its first preview THIS year in 2024.
I think the reason we didn't get a general Nintendo Direct in February is partially because of Pokémon Presents & that drop of Pokémon Legends Z-A, partially because they want full focus on Princess Peach Showtime coming in March, & because they want to time it to talk about the Nintendo Museum.
I think we'll get a general Direct in April, the new fiscal year. And then one in the summer somewhere.
They can hype-tease Metroid Prime 4 like they did Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom.
Nintendo's not hiding this game for no reason. It's gonna be a major title.
They want Metroid to pop wide open & break it sales ceiling. Metroid Dread was the warm-up.
I don't think Metroid Prime 4 comes out in 2024 though. I see 2025 as the release.
Nintendo has WAY more games in the chute ready than we know about & the Directs will show them.
I think Nintendo is more likely to drop system price then software price, a new system sale almost always means one or more software sales.
I wonder if they will have backwards compatibility... honestly I have no idea.
Nintendo is such a fascinating company. It is almost as if it is the last anti-Welch unicorn.
To see a company going strong like this without constantly depleating itself gives me a lot of hope.
You wait too long and the technology will surpass the unit basically selling us old tech. Most people buy a steamdeck for this reason.
Most people haven’t even heard of the Steam deck let alone bought one.
Those same people do not care about the quality of the hardware, they care about the games. Heck they don’t even to be technical or visual marvels, they just need to be fun.
Wow a Nintendo news channel that has basic understanding of how the business works, what a rare treat lol
8:26 There's a misuse of a comma. "They overthink it to the point where they don't do anything. They become paralysed with indecision."*
I seriously doubt a price drop in games. Maybe a price drop for switch consoles and add-in games bundled with those consoles, but there's no way Nintendo drops the price of their game library directly.
They have spent 30 years very, very carefully cultivating the situation in which Nintendo games are "evergreen" and never drop in price, only get more expensive. They view it as a core aspect of their IP value, putting Nintendo games on sale would damage the value of the IP in their eyes.
Nintendo is a company that works in the very long term, they would not compromise a 30 year strategy and devalue their IP for the kind of incredibly short term gains they could get by capitalizing on something as fickle as international currency exchange rates.
Gen x hasn't forgotten the Wii issue of selling it at Xmas and discontinues in February with no more games being made. Then shutting down the shop . Now this generation are seeing how Nintendo works , constantly bashing the smaller guys in court and treating customers badly . Nintendo could be selling games to millions of users who have non switch consoles by making those games available to all the new console owners via an e shop . But as nintendont um and arr over their upcoming release . They will lose out on that opportunity that so many console manufacturers are profiting from . Rest in peace yuzu and citra . We look forward to seeing your replacements.
Wut
Wtf are you on about, the wii and gamed for it were in stores for like 10 or 11 years
@@FeenickzVR what u said is irrelevant . What they did was promote Wii at Xmas then just after Xmas they announced it was discontinued and there would be no new games . Then a few months later they shut shop and you could no longer access the games you paid for .
@@geoffhall3012i thought the Last Wii game was made in 2020..
It’s not delayed because it was never announced. You’re just repeating lies from people that are moving the goal posts because they don’t know anything either.
Just a quick note - the Wii U was sold at a loss, though only a small one. Just one game sale out them back in the black.
Voice so quiet and muffled i cant hear you properly.
I'm seriously hard of hearing and I can hear him just fine. You're either has a more serious hearing issue than I do which is saying a lot, or bad earphones, or don't understand his accent.
@lucyk.5163 yeah I just came back and checked it and can hear it mostly fine. One of my headphones was going out and I didn't realize. I swap them back and forth.
Great 👍 video. I’ve subscribed. I think you’re the only CZcams channel who has it right why the Switch successor is delayed.
Thank you - and welcome!
@@nintendoforecast No problem 😉
Keep making content this was amazing
Thank you!
Whilst the switches internals are feeling very dated now, I'm glad it's had such a long life cycle, I only got one at xmas 2020 (3 years after release) there was a good library of exclusives then and side then there has been plenty of support and new games. NOT announcing a new switch years before release has given me reason to keep support the system.
Contrast this with PlayStation, the PS5 is about 3 years old now, but there's barely any exclusives to play on it, I was going to buy it for Spiderman 2 hoping more exclusives would come, but right now I don't see much support in the near future. Add this to the fact of Sony saying it's in the later stage of its lifecycle and the PS6 is likely coming within the next couple years and I now have 0 incentive to buy the PS5
I don't think its NOT a bad thing to delay console releases. When it does go into full production, they would be able to offer better hardware at a more reasonable price point. For example, I think a lot of people would rather have an OLED display as opposed to the LCD display that is planned to ship with the Switch 2. So instead buying a Switch 2 with an LCD on release, some will wait around for a Model 2 that could possibly come with an OLED. Delaying the release to make the console better at launch makes sense. It's the same theory I use when it comes to buying computer hardware. I never buy hardware when it first comes out because the price point is too high. If you wait a year or two from when it's on the market, the price drops sometimes by almost half the original cost. And this opinion even extends to Sony's Playstation and Microsoft's XBox. Sony even said a long while before the PS4 launch, that the lifetime of it's consoles exceeded the need for a new console to be developed. So in other words, if you're just releasing a console to remain relevant or increase sales, it may not be worth the effort considering that each new console comes with it's own set of difficulties for developers writing the game code. A longer duration of hardware development for a console, while providing developers with as much information as they need to know (and devkits), could hopefully make transitions to new consoles easier for developers as better hardware becomes more affordable without changing the process for gaming development.
This is a side of things I didn't think of. Awesome work.
This is a great video showing a side of doing business that a lot of people just don't even consider. Thanks for doing this!
Thank you!
Great video and analysis!
Thank you!
One of the most nuanced and informed perspectives on Nintendo's decisions based on facts, logic, and business. You are a diamond in the rough.
This is very very refreshing to hear from Business perspective I definitely want to see more
Thank you!
One more genius video like this, I may have to subscribe
I still got so many games in my backlog for Switch. They can take their time.
It would be interesting if the final price drop of the switch released a system with a bit more storage, since it might help platform sales by incentivizing each individual owner to buy more games, and nintendo could test the waters if they ever did decide to lean in on depending on platform sales.
Awesome video! Thanks for your work, but it has come to my mind that most big companies hedge their FX risk by using derivatives and structured financial products (rendering any movement in exchange rate inconsequential for nintendo transactions overseas), this should be the case for nintendo since basing a strategy around exchange rate is very risky (large firms tends to avoid risk, though I don't know if Nintendo does).
I agree but it depends on the size of the risk. In the risks they outline in their Financial Reports, currency exchange is always the one they identify as top so while I'm sure they take every step to mitigate it, I would think exercising caution about their release schedule would be part of that overall mitigation.
If the rumors are true, the tech is already 5years old. If they wait longer, they will get backlash for this.
I will say we should wait right now because rumors are rumors, they are not true, they are more like theory's than anything
My Switch came yesterday, I can’t wait to play.
Very informative!
Excellent analysis! Although interesting I don't plan on buying another Nintendo product. Unrelated to this video, I'm really upset with their business practices over the past several years. It's really sad because they were my favorite. 😢