Who will Dominate the Geopolitical System in this Decade? | Peter Zeihan | IEC 2021
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- čas přidán 25. 03. 2021
- Peter Zeihan (Geopolitical Strategist & Founder of Zeihan on Geopolitics) discusses which who will Dominate the Geopolitical System in this Decade, with M K Anand (MD & CEO, Times Network) after his initial address with a comprehensive macro look at the geopolitical landscape of the world. How with the QUAD function to give them an advantage that is mutually beneficial? Can it be an alternative to NATO? What are the three advantages that India can leverage this decade? India needs to focus on its region, many smaller regional stages are better to monitor rather than one global stage, says Peter Zeihan, Geopolitical Strategist & Founder of Zeihan on Geopolitics. Watch the full segment on what makes the decade and more the right time for India to flourish.
#IEC2021 #IndiaEconomicConclave
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I really like the interviewer. He listens intently, he knows the context well, and asks great questions.
I was about to make the same comment. The host & questioner is very knowledgeable and asks insightful questions.
@@videobenny3 Yeah, and he is not afraid to ask twice if Peter's answer was too brief. Milk that man for all his knowledge!
I watch a lot of Peter's videos and I must say that you ask better questions in India than most.
That's where it matters most.
It's been bound that in India, we ask very dumb questions.
He has a better understand of a lot of places that many others mess up all the time.
Indians are very intellectual
“IF. YOU. CAN. MAKE. YOUR. WOMEN. FEEL. SAFE….” Fantastic peter
52:29 👍
Situation has been improving every single day that passes by for a last few decades. India is a huge country, things take time.
This is a contradiction in his logic. He admits that allowing women into the workforce is catastrophic for birth rates and demographics yet he continually adocates for it
@@donniedewitt9878 Because the economic benefits are really, really good. So good that almost no one advocates for a reversal. Instead, the solution is finding ways to allow working women to still have kids.
FINALLY
Been waiting for the last four years for him to get invited for something like this. Thanks ET.
The first time I saw Peter spending so much time on India. Hope to see more of that. His views are so refreshing. Such a contrast to the boring groupthink coming out of Washington establishment.
India and the USA have an opportunity for a win-win relationship over the coming years. As Zeihan would point out, Mexico with its pyramid demography is demographically beneficial for the United States; but note that India has a similar demographic profile. With the exception of those 10 years old and younger, India is a pyramid demography. (The USA has an obelisk demography.) The United States also will be in need of more people, and has the space to accommodate probably 500 million people in total, over 150 million more than it currently has. India could mitigate/alleviate a bit of its population density issues through sending people over to the USA. The USA also could become a major energy supplier to India in the form of liquified natural gas (LNG), but Indian companies have to be confident enough to sign long-term or medium-long-term contracts for that to work well. Military cooperation would also make some sense as the multi-polar world (China, India, Japan, Indonesia + USA) develops mid-century.
True. Although I disagree with a few of his observations about India, his overall POV is very refreshing. His books are a delight to read. His points are worth noting. But he has been wrong on many fronts before.
@@stalemateib3600 Transferring the cognitive elites of India to the US (aka "braindrain") would be disastrous for India in the long run. But you could take the Rohingyas & some Mozies if you want, I guess.
Limited strategic cooperation (with an emphasis on tech transfer) is what India needs from the US.
I think he's wrong about globalization disappearing, that's operating under the assumption once the American propped up globalization cracks it'll revert to it's old form. The economy is too dependent on globalization and path of least resistance says it'll find some way to keep that going, whether it be another nation safeguarding or all the nations fighting for its chunk of global trading.
@Lawrence Weston I'm sure that would be unpleasant for the Hinus. But are you sure that it doesn't happen now?
(The bobs-vagene joke, mocking the Indun accent, perpetuating the "caw-c a s t e-curry" stereotype, the "elite space club" WaPo cartoon, etc..?)
But you haven't addressed my point directly. Political Isam is very real & problematic. And they have managed to immunize themselves against the Progressive Left by getting into an alliance of convenience with them.
Also, I'm using slangs to avoid YT censorship. But it might start to rub off on me.
it's crazy how under appreciated he was at this event.
Because he's a silver toungue fraud and source Indians have experience with dealing with frauds and they can spot a fraud from a mile away..
34:40 “it’s not India’s decade, it will be much longer”.. the moderator freaks out of his skin
Literally unbuttons his jacket.
I believe his meaning is that it is not JUST the coming decade that could be India's but the coming decades.
The second half of this decade will be India's. India really needs to first secure their water sources from the Himalayas. China knows this which is why they're militarizing Tibet and trying to influence Nepal and other countries in the Himalayas.
Peter knows how to dole out the dopamine.
@@etorawa9367 That is exactly why China is taking land from India, Nepal, Etc, they are trying to cut India off and close off any potential invasion routes. If India allows them to stay it will only get worse.
I’ve hearing that this decade will be India’s decade for the last two decades.
Except this time it would be in the US’s best interest.
Technically, he didn’t say that this will be Indian decade. Just that most of India’s rivals will be having much harder time than India next decade. So next Indian decade will be pretty much the same as last decade, it just happens that in comparison even that will be looking pretty good comparing to other powers.
It never comes.Democratic multi party system with feudatories always resist chànge.
India will always EXIST! HISTORY ALWAYS REPEAT 🇮🇳 love from 🇺🇸
@@trolllo9729 LMAO
Really great insight.
Thank you for bringing in a foreigner here. I was skeptical at first but this is the best of this event.
Your comment is a bit xenophobic, my friend.
American Peter Zeihan brings a bolt of truth to the big picture. Learn to listen to guys like him.
Very illuminating discussion on the “global order” which Peter Zeihan says is unraveling because the U.S will no longer be underwriting it. His analysis is very interesting in terms of the future scenario for China ( not great without the U.S. to enable it) and the new opportunities for regional powers like India. The moderator asked some pertinent questions but more analysis of the U.S-India relationship and where they intersect would have been interesting.
He seems to be ignoring the Belt and Road projects. I see China bypassing the ocean by going through the Stans to exclude Afghanistan to get all their oil needs and this isn't counting securing all the resources they have localling in the South China Sea that are not being exploited yet. Only the US can contest both of those and India is in no position to do so with either of those.
@@rainyvideos3684 You think Russia is going to sit quietly while China manipulates the stan countries?
@@Starbat88 I think that they will eventually be in a position where they can do nothing about it. If you look at their population pyramid and what it might look like in the future they won't have the manpower to do anything but defend themselves. And they have so few people going to technical schools that they won't be able to maintain the weapon advanced weapon systems they are developing or even have. In effect, China is going to be the senior partner here eventually just as the USA eventually became the senior partner in it's alliance with Britain.
@@rainyvideos3684 The US just left Afghanistan, looks like China doesn't have to bypass it anymore
@@Nolaris3 good luck with THAT.
2 cultural things will become obvious.
One is that the original silk road existed because the goods had an insanely high value at terminal destination. Outside of internationally illegal things like opium or heroin, weapons, human slaves, very, very few things have this value. As Zeihan points out, AT BEST land transport is,12x the cost of sea. To make it pay, value density must be higher. more valueable things have to be trasported, drawing thieves from tribes to governments like wasps to sugar.
Second is that the silk road was very dangerous and had a very high loss ratio due to real bandits, fake bandits and tariffs. By fake bandits i mean "letter of marquee" style operations false flag, initiated by the host country.
Afghanis dispite American, Russian and British presence for the last 200 years are pretty much the same primatives they were 300 years ago.
Doesnt matter what deal with china some afgan city boy leader makes, the country boys will be conducting business as usual.
China will freak over their fragile face getting pissed in by the afgani "laissez faire captalists".
(Remember, piracy and slavery are on the capitalism spectrum)
THEN THE GRINDING BEGINS. Pakistan and a bunch of African countries already have felt the chinese old school "im the boss and you BETTER get on your knees speaking me" mentality that china uses WITH ITS OWN PEOPLE, plus chinas endemic racism.
China will then attempt military manuevers in central Asia, and USA and probably secretly Russia will send "stingers" to eff the chinese.
silk road will be the same fun for china as the area was for Russia and US.
I'm so glad I came across this, I've been asking "what about India", what role will they play moving forward. I started asking this question when I watched one of those moving graphs that shows how much India's military is growing alongside others. This vid explains so much on where we are at now with Brics,etc.
Unfortunately you are using 80-year-old standard which do not exist anymore and have not existed for a long time. This is your naivete exists and You're supposed authority .
With all the problems in the Middle East, it is astonishing that the Suez Canal works so smoothly except for the current hang-up.
Besides Egypt locking it down for 7 years sure :-D
@@meganh9460 In the 60s and 70s
Fake news imposed by yankees neoliberals from Boston Ny and Wallstr tô favor communist China
Well it’s probably to do with the fact that IF anything happened to the Suez Canal, other countries would do.
Those are artificial problems,that’s why
23:45 The general consensus among the American people is that we have grown tired of our government being involved in international affairs when nothing is being resolved here at home. That is not to say we don't want friends abroad or trade partners. But we have many problems at home from increasingly unaffordable health care costs, never ending race issues, manufacturing jobs lost to China, crumbling infrastructure, and a myriad of other societal problems. And yet our government is more concerned with a war in Iraq, Afghanistan, Israels bad relations with everyone in the Middle East, Saudi Arabias bad relationship with Iran, and so on. Its as if our government serves anyone and anything BUT the American people. And Americans have increasingly grown tired of it. To the point that now anyone that mentions foreign policy as their main concern will get thrown off the ballot. This is why Trump was popular. Because for the first time, it sounded like a president actually cared for the people. Whether he did or not is a different ordeal.
Don't forget the cartels that are bordering our lands, and are trying to get into the US.
👏👏👏 until we get healthcare, nothing is going to change. To think that Israeli citizens get free healthcare, while our taxpayer dollars gets used for their defense is mind boggling to say the least. They themselves are shooting themselves In the foot by constantly attacking and illegally stealing land. Not sure why Americans must continue to fund this colonial shitshow
@@lookupEdwardBernays at least you guys have healthcare, appropriate childcare arrangements, and decent work life balances. None of that is existent in America
Elite opinion is far different from public opinion.
Amen, brother. Zeihan, as smart as he is, is part of the elite. The globalists were the ones telling everyone to not have kids while simultaneously extracting wealth for their way of being.
What an EXCELLENT talk. I wish audio quality on Peter's end was better. People need to send separate audio file to integrate into the video that millions are gonna watch. Recording the video straight from video call isn't gonna cut it.
One thing he ignores (or maybe discounts) is the role of automation. Automation is finally at the point where it won’t necessarily create more employment than it destroys (the old lamplighter chestnut). That has major implications for manufacturing AND military capabilities. Capitalist economies will embrace that as fast as possible. In that scenario, smaller human populations may be an advantage.
Precisely. Automation will be the salvation for many, if not all, of the Western nations in being able to compete in the future and remain relevant. The Chinese might have millions of workers, but they won’t be able to hold a candle to a robot/machine.
@@shawna3394 the things is do you have the political and public will for that to happen in large scale, I can only see it happening in high tech industries where human input is only from highly skilled people...Automation is definitely a game changer but you also have to keep in mind that you are dealing with psyche, politics and culture of human beings here...
No, he addresses this in other talks. In short automation still needs inputs to make it happen at a resources level that will become more difficult with global trade breaking down.
That and its not the ultimate fix that can beat demographic collapse in other regions like China.
Finally factory manufacturing components have been coming from Germany, to China to manufacture Chinese goods. China and assumedly other countries don't have the technical know how to create certain components yet. For example only just recently China figured out how to make the tip of the ball point pen. Previously that was always imported.
Two problems with automation that he stresses in other talks, cost and tech skill. The capital cost of establishing automation is huge. The technical skill to update and upkeep automation must be present. If you don't have these two, it will not happen.
Also, here in the States at least, although companies may push for automation because it's stupid not to, there always seems to be pushback from a good chunk of the working population (the whole taking-our-jobs nonsense).
Finally, Peter talks about india. Anyway, nice keynote(?).
This is a good video, I want to use this say something, I will forever be indebted to you Gardner 😇you’ve changed my whole life I’ll continue to preach about your name for the world to hear you’ve saved me from a huge financial debt with just little investment in money market, thanks so much Mrs Rose Gardner
sorry but I'm new to the trading market, some say local market I don't understand, I need help generate side allowance, how do I reach out to her, is she still active?
You can communicate her on here telegrm page.
@ROSEGARDNERBIS
will try reach out to her after my work hours, with all the positive words I hear, this should be worth a try
I love how Indians say Peter, it reminds me of the Boston accent “Petuh”
@Mr Nice Guy - or maybe pita like pitabread
@@Westralia Yeah it actually sounds more like that
“🇮🇳 India’s Hooligan PM Morsi needs to get his 🐀’s nest military out of Kashmir!!!”
@@davidsalcido383 morsi died in 2019???
Mankind's legacy- Automated, endlessly looped advertisements playing to a world wholly devoid of all life. All is well that ends well. Have a nice day.
🇮🇳 GO INDIA 🇮🇳
What an amazing insight... Only jarring note is the host's lack of excitement to Peter's repeated enthusiasm about India's future
He's just a pompous hawk who'll be irrelevant in shaping the emerging world order.
If you want India to be "enthusiastic" about wriggling another century under the Anglosphere, suit yourself.
The expression of the chairman is awesome. Rapt and fascinated. If the Indian subcontinent does not turn into a hard conquering world power, they can leave the next decade equal to any other "Peer Threat." Welcome to the top 10% people.
You were spot on with the energy discussion
I am afraid the world listened a bit too good to this guy-full-of-actual-expertise who does such brilliant analysis on how it stands on the world stage & with regards to specific situations! But then even trade (and stock trades) should not be too greedy
Where can I get the slides or slide citations? Especially the consumption index/projection.
Those charts all appear in his book, Disunited Nations.
The world needs to find an economic system that isn’t dependent on population growth.
Increased trade, which would happen with an Israel/Gaza Canal would help with that. More volume going thru the Red Sea and greater investment in protecting that from Piracy or disruption.
Yes ! It called producing locally , but not Central planning on a greedy scale .
@@433Boomer And that'll eventually lead to more wars.
@@433Boomer Yes, producing locally is part of the reason USA will survive. We are blessed with a rich variety of raw materials.
Meanwhile beware: responders to your message who throw out unsupported arguments.
Everyone understands the difference between making contributions to a dialog and throwing in general conclusions with no backing.
@@Yomi4D There will always be more wars until kingdom come unless you have a one world government, economy and religion with totalitarianism of course.
Very interesting.
Great show!!!
If geopolitical and economic issues are a simple result of demographics and population planning, our life would be so much easier to manoeuvre through happily.
Not just demographics. He said geography too.
Why?
Peter has been talking about the same thing for years.
On an another note, India may as well take a page from China and declare the Indian Ocean its ancient territory.
ahahahahaha ikr
Why is this true though😂
Let's goooooo!!!!!!
He was right about energy to the tee!!
I thought it was interesting that the two things he said would be really important to do - 1) build infrastructure to connect all the states as much as possible, 2) Work very hard on gender equality, generated no follow-up discussion or questions. Most of the questions were answered in the talk or about short term money issues (even discussion about cooperation with China was about money), instead of about what to do to raise Indian economy, equality, and citizens to a higher level, which are the basis for greater economic growth and political stability. Everyone needs to feel like they're included and have opportunity to be their best.
Only rich countries can waste time on nonsense.
@@magnasquids7864 Actually, building infrastructure helps increase growth of an economy. Improving the ability of people and commerce to move and communicate ties a country together, promotes employment, and is a major contributor to innovation. Like education and public health, it pays back much more than is put in. Don't look at how wealthy countries are, look at how they got that way. For the U.S. a long history of building communications infrastructure - canals, roads, railroads, ports, airports, postal service (important enough to include in the Constitution at the country's birth) , telegraph, telephone, Internet, including rural areas, was a major part of its growth. Ziehan understood all this.
Valid point. The more efficient we become, the less human we get.
@@awesomed007 I’m sorry, I don’t see how that reply follows the comment.
I also don’t agree with the conclusion. If we were optimally efficient at providing our necessary means, we would have MORE time and energy for human endeavors like: family, arts, music, social life, continuing education, travel, etc. etc. Sounds MORE human than slaving in the fields or factory all day and coming home exhausted.
@@magnasquids7864 There is a direct collerlation between getting your women in the work force and economic success. You essitentially double your pool of talent and workers by including them, it's an economist wet dream. Notice how only "rich" coountries that stress it, I wonder why they are rich lol.
This guy is amazing and yes India is one for the future no doubt.
Around the middle of this video is just a game of tennis watching the ball go back and forth from "how does India become a global super power?" To "by not aiming to be a global super power"
It always amazes me that this gentleman’s assessment either conveniently or ignorantly discounts the enormous importance of what the super powers are doing in various countries in Africa. Absolutely amazing. 🤔
I'm going to Google a connection
The interviewer was decent, but quite disorganised. Reading Zeihan's credentials mid-interview was awkward to put it mildly. Otherwise, Peter Zeihan was a great guest to invite, found his perspective fascinating.
The audience's questions were far more fascinating. The interviewer should've given them the chance to ask questions much sooner, his questions were a little odd with financial advice and whatnot.
Doesn't matter and nobody cares. The interviewer did a decent job for being out of practice. I believe Indians will be a superpower in 20 years and what Zeihan is saying is that the globalists can no longer parasitize America.
@@brutusmaximus5380 If India could become a superpower, it would have already been one. What has stopped India from becoming a superpower in the last seventy years? Do you know why the western love India and hate China? It is because India isn't competitive with them, and they don't feel any competitive threat from India.
@@emmawang1999 don't know and dont care.
Yall hafta fend for yourselves now.
@@emmawang1999 There is a big cultural disconnect between Western and China. When the USA sees India, we see something we can relate too. Big country, messy democratic politics, everyone talking at once, and a distaste for all things British. India's immigrants here are valued here as I have never seen anyone complaining about them on gov assistance.
USA has spent decades trying to connect with India but India choose its neighbors. At one time we even offered to kick China out of the UNSC and give India the seat.
We see China and we freak because we thought they would liberalize, individualize. They are instead embracing collectivism. The US has been battling collectivism for 70 years now and the last ethnic collectivized empire out of Asia struck us. Then the cold war burning into our memories.
That would prob go away with the rise of hindu nationalism, as it would remind us too much of what the han are doing in China.
Hey Tons of Fun, I'm a big fan. I definitely agree considering that Peter's message hasn't changed much for years so very little research was needed to be ready with good questions.
All these studies in future must be india centric. GOI must promote through indian universities encourage such research work on a regular basis.
He's wrong about you having your women enter the workforce. It's not worth it. Grow slower, allow your women the time to properly raise your children. No matter what your future holds, if your children are raised right they can survive and thrive.
@@rexmann1984 I agree. The knowledge I got from my parents about power dynamics - by a mostly stay at home mom - was free of ideological programming of the state - vital if children are to adapt to fast changing conditions.
@@rexmann1984 For the state its better having women in the workforce. There is a theory here in America that the feminist movement was funding by some of the richest men in America. Asked why they said "We could only tax half the population, now we can tax them all." Whats good for the state usually isn't good for the core family.
@@meganh9460 damn girl you anarchy or what?
Instead we get JNU
Eye opener probably foretelling then the future.
Thank you for this video
I think India is one of the eternal civilizations.
you mean the hundreds of kingdoms coming and going on this sub-continent only united because a small island on the other side of the world felt like it?
@@herpaderppa3297 The term kingdom is not a synonym for the term civilization. From Websters:
kingdom: a politically organized community or major territorial unit having a monarchical form of government headed by a king or queen
civilization: a relatively high level of cultural and technological development AND the culture characteristic of a particular time or place
@@herpaderppa3297 civilization doesnt mean it has to be one nation. But yes its funny that india needed to get occupied to get finally united.
I feel that Peter has raise my IQ several points through the last few videos I’ve watched. Thanks! My name is also Peter by the way.
That's not how IQ works, boi.
Good to India. This guy put India in day dream for money.
It's called the Indian Ocean for a reason. It should be called Lake India.
thats one big lake.
Narendra Modi has started various infrastructure and Road funding projects
Great discussion
This interview was a year before the “special operation” in Ukraine.
His remarks were spot on about Russia going down swinging.
Brilliant guy but he brushes over a lot of assumptions that are probably wrong. With that said he's still brilliant, he presents a fresh world view beyond political ideologies and boring dry economics. Take what he says as a starting point and with a grain of salt. It's not his fault he over simplifies the world because he makes it understandable, but don't let his confidence fool you, he's wildly guessing on a lot of his conjectures.
At this moment, April 2022, he is adament that Russia will take all of Ukraine. Based on overwhelming difference in troop size and the Russian cultural capacity to absorb huge loss of life. We will see but I still love Peter Zeihan's talks he is super smart and his perspective is big picture, geography doesn't change with politics and demography is a wave moving through time that is an unstoppable fact.
He said Russia would start this war and they did so in terms of forecasting he has been spot on over the years. In terms warfare, I’m not sure Peter is qualified enough to suggest Ukraine will lose. To be fair If I remember correctly he also said Russia can’t afford to lose this war but that doesn’t mean they can’t.
@@rickjames18 For Putin human lives are expendable but I am not sure Russian mothers who often have only one or two children (of conscript age) would agree or for how long. Peter has certainly been spot on about the dangers of bordering Russia.
I STRONGLY question the assumption Russia will take all of Ukraine. The US and Europe are putting huge resources into helping the Ukrainians fight the Russians asymmetrically. In my opinion, Putin isolated himself too much bc of covid.
@@collinwhites9833 Yeah, that may be the only thing I disagree with. I only fear that Putin will never give up no matter the cost in lives and equipment. As for the resources, I think the US is getting better but they could be doing so much more. They should have been training Ukrainians on US jets, Artillery, Abrams Tanks etc long ago, like a month ago. The Biden Admin has improved drastically but they haven't really gone full throttle yet. I hope they start thinking long term.
We would be more interested if everyone didn’t take advantage of us. Like the deals and no tariffs after WW2 meant to help the world rebuild was maintained to the modern day despite no longer being needed as the other nations kept tariffs so they could profit and rebuild faster. When we recently tried to change that with our own tariffs, the world went nuts and aggressive towards us. Why should we work, pay, and endanger ourselves for everyone else’s greed and egos?
His point is that since 2008 under 4 different presidents of both parties, we have been shutting down those protections and pulling troops back home. You ask exactly the right questions. What'll be interesting is what happens when the US isn't there to ensure access to markets or to keep local tensions from becoming regional fights. If the US still had several heavy divisions in Europe and been actively working on regional security for the last several years, would Russia have invaded Ukraine? Instead, we spent the last several administrations trying to pull back. Scary thought: if the US leaves and regional conflicts start popping up everywhere, the US will need to do very heavy lifting to shut those down. In the long run, it may have been cheaper to just keep maintaining our forward involvement (maybe without subsidizing Russia & China).
This is why after two world wars we became the world police so world wars wouldn't happen. We always will be sucked in.
@@johnprestonbrown5090 I don't think internal politics on either side of the aisle would allow that. One side hates "imperialist USA" and the other side is tired of being "the world's cop" and being hated for it by the whole world. The US's natural position is at rest on the North American continent, keeping all threats well away and pursuing it's own interests. Imagine how hard it would have been to get the US involved in WWII without Roosevelt. That's along the lines of what it will take to get the US to budge, unless it is for a close ally, like Australia, Japan, UK. After Russia has been contained, we'll shake Ukraine's hand and ride off into the sunset and throw the NATO flag into the Atlantic.
This was exactly Trump’s point that got him into office
"Russia will go out swinging and if I was at their border I would be very worried"
Dang. This was 11 months ago and look at the situation now in Ukraine.
@@Eric-rp7fd "Russia's demographics are so horrid that if it fails to act before 2022, it will lose the capacity to act both militarily and economically. This puts Russia on a collision course with the eight EU members on the edge of what the Russians see as their preferred border zone: Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, and Romania. It would seem that the Russian challenge to Europe's future is rather obvious.
Well, yes and no.
Yes in that Russian pressure on places like Ukraine is both palpable and increasing, yes in that the emotional state of these eight European countries range from intense concern to panicked paranoia at the rising Russian tide, and yes in that should Russia follow a piecemeal approach it can encroach upon Europe's eastern border without unduly provoking Western Europe's heavyweights.
No in that the reactions of some of these countries to Russian encroachment may be even more injurious to the concept of European unity than the Russians themselves."
--- From The Accidental Superpower, published November 2014, by Peter Zeihan.
---------
"The Russian birth rate plummeted around the end of the Cold War. The health system has collapsed. Heroin addiction runs rampant. Russia suffers the world's worst infection rates of drug-resistant tuberculosis, and a near-the-worst for HIV. All this would be bad enough by itself, but the Russian system crashed in 1989 - children born in that year turned 18 in 2007. By 2022 everyone in the Russian military will have been born during the disease-ridden and drug-addled baby bust. The result? An army that is likely no more than half its 2010 size in functional terms, and considerably less that in terms of operational capability.
Russia has already entered Twilight: There are barely enough men under arms and cloak to maintain and defend Russia as it is. Cut those numbers by half, and the end of Russia itself is nigh."
--- From The Absent Superpower, published December 2016, by Peter Zeihan.
---------
Russia's Report Card.
Borders: Russia's borders are long and impossible to defend, prompting the Russians to endlessly expand outward until they hit significant geographic or military resistance.
Resources: Russia is a huge producer of oil and natural gas, and its vast geographies sustain massive mining and even more massive grain production. Much of this activity is seasonal; most Russian territory vacillates between frozen and swampy.
Demography: The horrific Soviet legacy and the post-Soviet birthrate collapse have fused with skyrocketing mortality fueled by alcoholism, heart disease, violence, tuberculosis, and HIV. Russia is suffering through a complete, multivector, unstoppable demographic collapse.
Military Might: Russia still invests heavily in defense, through much of the hardware is showing its age. Thirty-plus-year-old submarines and an aircraft carrier that habitually catches fire, but impressive tanks and aircraft and the world's largest nuclear arsenal - Russia's kit may be old, but it still packs a punch.
Economy: Sanctions and an overreliance on commodity exports have made Russia struggle since the Soviet fall, but Russian geography never supported a successful, industrialized economy.
Outlook: Russia is an aging, insecure, former power determined to make a last stand before it is incapable of doing so. American disengagement from the global scene couldn't have come at a better time, but the reactivation of Russia's traditional local foes couldn't have come at a worse one.
In a word: Panicked.
--- From Disunited Nations, copyright 2020, by Peter Zeihan.
------
And now with China having shut down fertilizer exports, while at the same time gas prices are making LNG based fertilized unaffordable, together with Russia and Belarus being the world's second and fourth largest exporter of "Potash".
Means that the world has now lost all 3 fertilizer products.
Before Russia invaded Ukraine, the prices for fertilizer were already 6 times higher on the global average. (In Norway it was double/triple)
Now with the war and sanctions, means the Middle-East has lost access to their bread.
And Africa and the Middle-East are losing their access to fertilizer.
The last time there was a disruption of Russian grain to the Middle East was in 2010. This resulted in the Arab spring.
Now Ukrainian exports of grain is also shut down. Meaning the Arab situation is far, far worse than it was in 2010.
Then add on fertilizer costing 10 times the normal and with global shortages. This is the end. That is the apocalypse.
And we are looking at a total collapse of the world as we know it.
Peter Zeihan has talked and written plenty about the inevitable war in the Arab world, with Iran and Saudi Arabia inevitably launching rockets at each other. And now with food supplies to the entire region... practically shut down in a way the world has never, ever seen before.
And we are looking at the inevitable burning down the entire Arab/Middle East oil supply.
This shuts off the entire energy source of Central and Eastern Europe. Gone. End.
This shuts off 70% of ALL Chinese energy.
This is the end of China as a cohesive entity.
And with 80% of African food production being entirely dependent upon the importation of fertilizer. We are looking at a scenario where 1 Billion people will not have the ability to feed themselves.
China with their Demographic collapse is already looking at halving their population by 2050 the earliest and 2070 the latest.
If you throw in the complete collapse of energy, no power, no light, and no transportation. And we are looking at half a Billion dead in China even before simple age shuts them down.
The post WW2 world is over. The world is now returning to what it once was before globalism. The death that we have only seen in movies and in black and white on the TV, is now returning.
The United States has everything they will ever need. The Americans will barely feel a thing.
But Europe, Mainland Asia, and Africa. Ends.
Every foundation that set the world apart from before WW2, has now been splintered.
Every pillar that made modern Europe possible, is gone. All of them at the same time.
Fascinating to hear this presentation with India slant ...
I'm glad Peter spoke of India, it was a missing piece
Good to hear something positive about India
Haha only good thing he said is others will collapse n India will not
@@LhnAran well all in all that sounds fantastic lol
India will dominate their region so long as they don’t target short term gains with long term societal alterations.
Wow what a great interview!
Greetings to India, from the world's other large Democracy and former British colony. ;p
are you saying being a former British colony is a good thing/accomplishment?
Is this Peter guy an English man ? LOL.
@@brandonpersaud5634 No, but its the bond all of us have. A distaste for all things british. See non british colonies think its about English or the west when its really just about Britian.
@@brandonpersaud5634 I would
@@brandonpersaud5634 it has been to be honest lmao
While Peter strikes me as far too savvy to ever run himself, any US Presidential Candidate would do well to add him to their advisory circle and allow him to speak to the public. He holds nothing back and speaks truth to power. My god, America needs this man in a much larger capacity.
*Wow Mr. Zeihan talked about India in ET? Love it!*
But, I am thinking ias there some equal expert on the other side? The one who counters Zeihan's theory? His oratory skills are great. And that's why I wonder if it seems too convincing. So I need an other side of the story...
If someone knows please let me know....
He was in an Intelligence Squared debate. It's on YT.
I am talking about the counter.
Yeah I forget who was on the other side of the debate. A Canadian minister and a different geopolitical analyst.
Don't get me wrong. He has good points. But there is too much oversimplification in his talk.
Basically, take every think he say and half the impact of it by 1/4.
Just alone the whole us world order thing relies on the idea that China won't be able to create a good enough navy, in the next decades.
Plus he also predicted that China will go bust a few decades ago. So yeah
Yeah He clearly isnt excited about China, thats for sure!
55:56 - 56:10 - funny 😀56:16 - 58:23 - illuminating (confirms my thoughts) on the Russia-China relationship
Good talk!
Talks like this have some value (demographic facts have implications, cultures are not easily changed, etc.) but so much of these predictions are unreliable because countries are often surprisingly resourceful at solving their problems--they make shocking alliances, they make technological discoveries, they change short term strategies into long term, etc. It's a bit like predicting the climate. Freeman Dyson was famously amused by it.
Absolutely. The idea that India could do X without China doing Y as a counter is a big issue.
Yes. Predictions sound good, but they are really just away to avoid real analysis. Real analysis discusses uncertainty. People who claim to know what will happen are usually frauds and usually wrong.
It looks like his predictions are manifesting in reality somehow. Strange, its almost as if he was on the money. Almost, but of course if something happens that we dont like we should just ignore it, it will probably go away. Lets make a shocking alliance with sticking out head in the sand.
He comes from a school where geography and demographics controls economics and politics. In his books he explains that the USA has a lucky combination of near perfect geography (river transport system, oceans protecting both sides, friendly neighbors that depend on USA, barrier islands that protect from natural disasters, early settlers founded by individuals that created a strong local govt that the federal govt could manage collaboratively rather than despotically, flat passageways through the mountains that allowed connection of country by railways, and flat lands that allowed transcontinental roadways).
These culminate in q perfect blend that allows the US to make colloidal mistakes and still succeed.
He's very hard on the US in his books but recognizes geography and demographics supports USA.
This comment aged horribly. Russia is at war with Ukraine, there's an energy crisis, and a food crisis.
Never thought Peter Zeihan would be participating in an Indian conference.
Clearly his reputation has dropped to third tier in the speaker's circuits having predicted the wrong outcome of the world order for the past ten years.
@@2KSnSLifestyle Are you thinking of his boss? His boss made some very poor predictions about Japan but Peter has been spot on with the unipolar world falling apart.
@@meganh9460 Peter Zeihan has been dead wrong predicting the US can be self sufficient without China. The reality is the opposite. Despite high tariffs on Chinese made goods, American consumers simply can't get enough of Chinese made products like socks, Christmas ornaments, mobile phones and much much more.
@@2KSnSLifestyle What he says is that China doesn't produce anything unique. Their labor costs are actually higher than mexicos now. The only thing China can do that is unique now is the organizational scale of their manufacturing. There is no one that can do what they do on a global scale of production.
However if you don't think we can get our socks and ornaments someplace else you are dead wrong.
Btw Self sufficient normally means in needs, not in wants. Energy/water/food are needs.
@@meganh9460 If you think you can get socks and Christmas ornaments elsewhere, be my guest. Trump tried to do it for four years and failed miserably. In fact few American companies want to buy the facemask made in America because it's 300% more expensive than Chinese made facemasks.
Speaking of Mexico, most of the components come from China. Moreover Chinese companies are setting up manufacturing in Mexico and ship their goods America free of tariffs.
The factories in China is already fully booked for the rest of 2020 and most of the orders are still from America.
The bottom line is, as long as American consumers shop at Walmart and Amazon, the supply chain will still lead to China.
30:24 That grin is priceless!
Excellent analysis EXCEPT the Wrong Indian Map at 16:57 Now which Bassstard made that you have to ask Mr Zeihan!
I just discovered this guy, he should run for president, we need smart people who know in charge!!!!
Hearing him talk makes me feel dumb
maybe not as president, but he would make a good foreign minister
Great to hear Peter mention India's élephant in the room' their mistreatment of women. This wonderful country would be magical if it could get the gender question right.
Great presentation, Peter.
That's Professor Zeihan.
The future is in collaboration among countries with similar philosophy and share mutual interest like Quad
Quad is nothing without USA so also those national in quad will all be just a junior partners who have to follow orders from USA. And Japan has no military and Australia military is not that powerful and both of them rely on USA for military and defence.
An Indian naval supremacy would be dependent on enough economic surplus that can be invested into the navy. Peter is quite right about a possible capital drought and India might need to make its own capital markets flexible. The central government can borrow notional amounts from the world in all the hard currencies and indicate a rate above which institutions/corporates can borrow. Expand financial education and tax real estate at higher levels to move a lot more money into actual value creation.
Peter also zeroes in on India's number 1 undiscussed issue which is the gender gap. Gods only know the way to manage that.
For India to generate its own capital they would need to follow Peters suggestions on culture shifting. Including women as active working members in all levels of society with protections and safety. And minimizing the effects of the caste system so everybody can participate. That requires culture change and that's virtually impossible to predict. It's also the reason why Peter hasn't touched India in his research over the years I'd imagine.
From my experience, in the United States there is a significant amount of people that are willing to have poverty over changing the culture so we're all more wealthy. I know it's crazy, but it's human nature. The only possible vehicle for change culturally is through propaganda. And it's real hit and miss on whether or not it'll work. And sometimes it can take up to 50 years to work. And for India, 50 years is too late.
@@everythingisfine9988 America is the greatest example of a cultural shift engineered through propaganda.
The narrative of American exceptionalism enabled a highly superstitious people who were burning witches, scalping & skinning natives, & owning slaves to re-imagine themselves as the "champions of freedom & democracy" & pursue scientific endeavors.
India should draw some lessons from this.
Also, I'm not sure about caste system (in its current diminished form) playing any significant role. America suffers from systemic racism, but this hasn't stopped it from attaining superpowerdom, has it?
@@jojobabok9373 they have been fed propaganda on 'caste' by Indian and western marxists
Revive Sri Vijaya 2.0 from “Ibu (Mothers Power) Bali & East Java). They retain solid stoic gender balance like me many in the animal kingdom do.
How long does it takes India to build, say a destroyer? 5 years or a decade or two?
Brilliant!!!
I could listen to Peter talk all day... oh and i just did :)
👋👋👋👋👋 Tremendously educational. What an excellent speaker he is. Such precise analysis, like a surgeon. Totally riveting. Awesome.
He has all the confidence of a burgeoning psychopath.
The answer is that the American Empire is NOT like other empires. Isolationism is always ready to become popular.
A whole new perspective of the global diplomacy can be imagined from now on!!?
India is a nation which STILL counts "Open Defecation" as one of its major modernization challenges. Enough said!
I think it would be worth the investment to create an Israel/Gaza Canal. There are resources Europe and North Africa could get from India and vice certain that help both. Moreover, the Suez Canal can be obstructed and the Egyptian government is heavily in debted to China for loans to build a new capitol. There are apparently also issues with water flow on the nile bc of a large dam being built in Ethiopia.
Love to know these people who work all there life's. Can't take it with you.. We all need money but I will not be a slave to money and worrying about it... 💸💸💸💸💸
You would be better off spending your time learning how to write.
@@peternolan4107 Pay attention, his attitude IS CURRENTLY altering demographics in the western world. Famillier with "The Red pill" movement? its already throwing predictions askew.
Funny how someone from TimesNow asks if India will remain a democracy.. Even the collaborators understand what is happening in India..
I've been reading about India, Next Decade Global Superpower, for about 30 years now...
A smart guy like you can be so right and yet so wrong. The capital was not stormed.
If the Suez canal is blocked for a long time then Oil prices will double for Europe but will fall for India.
Yeah... but doesn't that potentially limit the supply of food to India? China is currently stockpiling HUGE amounts of food.
@@collinwhites9833 india actually grows enough food to feed the whole country and even export the surplus grown food
The talk fails to recognize Americas economic challanges vs the influence of leadership by leaders of global powers in ensuring they rise or fall. There is more to leadership based prosperity than demographics based prosperity.
statistically prosperity is more likely to be predicted by demographics than by leadership. While have good leadership is certainly important (look at Argentina to see why). All the evidence we have says that demographics is simply more important.
Geographic based prosperity is most important. No matter how great the leadership is in Iceland, it will never become a great power.
28:28 watching this again in June 2022... holy s***
There WERE plans for a second canal through Israel and to Aquaba (sp?). To make such a canal would require the complete collapse of Egypt before starting (I think) but it would change many many things.
He got some things right, but struck out [missed almost entirely] on the COVID stuff.
It is possible that horrific synthetic opioids like fentanyl become a greater problem than they are currently. Opioid overdose is currently the leading killer of Americans from 18 to 45.
यदि हमें चीन के ऊपर विजय प्राप्त करना है तो तीन चीज पर काम करना होगा
1. Technology for industry 4.0
2. Military for Peace
3.diplomacy for edge over China
Be good friends with America and Israel, Mexico and Canada my friend. May God Almighty bring India out of darkness and into His everlasting light. I love Indians that I come across with here in the USA. You seem to be a thoughtful, family oriented, and financially smart.
goldloving decade
America will if they want to. If they do not then one of his nicely positioned countries, and India is one of them, but India is the most powerful one positioned to cope. If India guarantees free trade across the indian ocean, they might have a very nice position.
When India Give up western Model of Development, India will remain strong forever,Because it has Treasure of Culture,Philosophy & spiritualism.The Conservation of Nature is the most important key for the progress! You can't eat concrete & Dollar to survive! You need food & immunity🙏
Fight for people's material needs. Drop the useless fluff like religion. You care about religion, that's okay. No enforcing it on others. Working people are all equal irrespective of their religion or caste
Yes make me your dictator, albiet a "sankari dictator"
@@Greasyhair Truth does not require Dictator! When Materialism & Science can't help to solve crisis what is left is Past treasur of knowledge! Not sanskari!
When spiritual business leaders engage Western Model of Development. You see different results! There are plenty of examples...all over the world! Indian Diaspora have impacted western model also! These spiritual business leaders are in every nooks & corners! Also in ..many many small businesses all over the world!
@@djsunshine1 Spiritual Model cannot be commercialised,it can grow into an institution.However they have failed during this Pandemic due to wrong preachings!
Very poor host. I’ll prepared and very poor questions. Mr. Zeihan was talking about domestic connectivity and the host thinks he must seek real estate advise from his guest.
We have this in the States as well because most likely he was just doing his job. For example, the Canadian Dairy organization had him up in Canada and asking him direct questions on their business. So less for the audience and more for the people who put it together.
He was caught up with his self appearance on camera & distracted for most parts during the interview . . LoL
Peter Zeihan is expensive. Feel lucky you have rich people with interest who seek his advice.
Not true. More so the Indo-Pacific theatre and the power of incumbency which has tradeable value.
Glad and proud to be an American 🇺🇸
Will be interesting to see your views of Saudi Arabia..
One things which I disagree with the Indian control over the Arabian Gulf sea. It should be reviewed by speaker. Plus, gulf producing countries have other outlet the red sea.
Thanks for the video 🌹
I regret that nobody asked him about the impact of electic vehicle and not using crude oil for energy's impact on India's leverage on the global stage
Power is still being generated to provide the electricity.
@@anthonygeorge4116 And that electricity is being generated mostly by fossil fuels or nuclear since green tech sucks.
The audience questions or commentary is extremely poor quality. Adding to the MC. Audience questions is rather poor
I want to know what are the other five countries aside from India that has major developments he is talking about?
Japan, France, India, Turkey and Afgentina I think he said.
@@Hannodb1961 He has since backed away from Argentina due to covid and their new political leadership telling the IMF to fuck off again. A bit with Turkey due to Erdogan and the fact he keeps firing the head of his central bank whenever they try to get inflation under control.
@@meganh9460 Yeah. But I think his assessment was also mainly based primarily off Geography. Geographically speaking, Argentina has been dealt a particularly good hand, but the human factor - politics - managed to screw up a country that should've been a regional superpower. What this means is that there is a serious question mark over his assertion that the US will be fine regardless of what yahoo is in the white house. In the end, geography can only provide you with potential, but it is up to human ingenuity to actualise that potential, or human stupidity to ruin that potential. Something Zeihan often overlook is the horrible state of American infrastructure, and the socially destructive effect of the divisive woke movement. These two factors alone have the potential to turn the US into a second Argentina if they keep going on their current trajectory.
@@Hannodb1961 Actually our failing infrastructure is a bit of what we Americans do best...... blow everything out of proportion. We are so used to being the best that when we fall, or in most cases other rise, we freak out. While it can definitely use an upgrade, its not failing. When was the last major bridge collapse you heard of here? Tunnel collapse? Main roads becoming impassable?
He posted this a few weeks ago on his twitter so he does address it.
www.slowboring.com/p/roads-and-bridges
Our first treasury sectary when starting the office said "Our people can starve, as long as our creditors don't." Then his first move was to pay off all foreign debt before public debt. This cannot be said in a democracy, not in Argentina. Politicians are not economic professors and will tell foreigners to fuck off to get elected every time.... yet no one then invests in their country. The US has never once gone that route. Maybe one day but it is still the safest place to put your money.
@@meganh9460 Thanks for the link, will definitely read it. When Peter Zeihan opens his mouth, I open my ears.
He's an absolute genius isn't he?
Chinese blue water navy is its militia fishing fleet. Coupled with drones it can cause a lot of damage.
@People of China live free and destroy the CCP last time I checked weapons were used against enemies.
i don't think Chinese people realise things are going to be bad 45:00 but anyone who makes money is (justifiably) scared that Beijing will take it from them
A fascinating Political Scientist. Has large historical perspective. I don't agree with some of his predictions however.
The golden decade for India is here? The people are getting sick and dying at stupendous rates. So much for these know-it-all prognosticators!