Peter Zeihan: China, Food Supply Chains, Energy, Ukraine & The Future of Humanity
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Geopolitical strategist and author Peter Zeihan acknowledges how the warmer weather has blessed us this winter season, easing pressure from what could have been a disastrous energy crisis.
But, he still observes how the global systems surrounding energy and food are extremely fragile. He joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake for an update on the war in Ukraine one year later, China, and more. Recorded on March 7, 2023
CHAPTERS:
1 What's Your Current Assessment of China and the Ukraine War? 09:10
2 Has Europe Averted or Only Delayed Their Energy Problem? 09:23
3 How Fragile Is the Global Food Supply Chain? 0:16:21
4 Semiconductors and Deglobalization 0:24:09
5 The Ambiguous Path Forward for China 0:31:29
6 The Rise of Authoritarianism and the Ukraine War 0:42:19
7 The Economic Impact of Reshoring 0:47:26
8 What Are the Most Underappreciated Geopolitical Risks Right Now? 0:51:41
9 The Takeaways 0:56:49
Thanks for watching Real Vision Finance!
#geopolitics #chinanews #peterzeihan
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CHAPTERS:
1 What's Your Current Assessment of China and the Ukraine War? 09:10
2 Has Europe Averted or Only Delayed Their Energy Problem? 09:23
3 How Fragile Is the Global Food Supply Chain? 0:16:21
4 Semiconductors and Deglobalization 0:24:09
5 The Ambiguous Path Forward for China 0:31:29
6 The Rise of Authoritarianism and the Ukraine War 0:42:19
7 The Economic Impact of Reshoring 0:47:26
8 What Are the Most Underappreciated Geopolitical Risks Right Now? 0:51:41
9 The Takeaways 0:56:49
❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤
Ghu
Great video, incredibly informative. Angry Communist Fifty Cent Army mass flagging incoming.... 😊
*Yeas,* _this is a death blow to EU._ It also means that even if Russia loose the war in Ukraine on the tactical side *Russia will win* on the strategical side. USA will loose its allies in Europe. Its fully possible that a European financial collapse will put EU-governments in charge that are outright hostile towards US. in Iran style fashion. US. loose Russia wins.
why bringb on an incompetent authoritarian apologist?
@@wasdwasdedsf speaking of incompetent, nice spelling on your post above. You must've been all worked up over the talk about Chilli dren. Try not to 'blow a gasket' thinking about the younger generation wadswallower.
I love Peter's stuff and he is incredibly entertaining but don't confuse confidence in one's Viewpoint with true knowledge of the future. Just in this interview he's backtracking on many of the things he said last year were definitely going to happen like Mass famine and people freezing to death in their homes. What prognosticators like Peter fail to realize is that there are billions of people that are conscious actors in this world and all have a vested interest in survival. Charts and spreadsheets are great but they don't speak to the human spirit.
Thanks for watching!
The outcomes might be speculative but the underlying demographics, geographies, and existing industrial and energy complexes take years and decades to change. The world was sleep walking into this deglobalization and fed into Peter's narrative very well. Then Russia invaded Ukraine and woke everybody up. It's like they suddenly realized there was cobra in the room and took immediate action. It clearly took Russia by surprise. It's unfortunate because Russia has so much to offer the world...if only they'd be a better neighbor.
He made an interesting point here I've not heard before. He's said in the past that Germany was demographically declining. He's also said since the invasion that their economy is on the precipice of an energy induced collapse. What's new...the large portion of the EU economy that Germany represents puts them all in peril. I'd not heard him explicitly state that before.
Peter could be all wrong but we'd be foolish not to make contingency plans for various scenarios.
Great points -- thank you!
@@chrishooge3442
How about you become a better neighbour for Russia?
How come Russia and India can collaborate very well but people can’t in Europe? India is a democracy.
Why do you blame EU policy failures on the Russians?
He's a charlatan selling his pabulum to fools parting with their money for feigned sophistications...
peter has successfully predicted 62 of the last 5 global crisis.
Huh That doesn’t make sense 🤔
@@anthonyfam5469 thats the point, hes saying he keeps predicting things incessantly so eventually he has to become "right"
Don’t worry Anthony, there are 3 times of people in the world. Smart people and this who don’t understand simple jokes.
😂😂😂
Welcome to the expanding world of entangled quantum economics.
At least some of Peter Zeihan's predictions might be proven wrong, but I think he deserves credit for encouraging his audiences to think systemically.
Thanks for watching!
This bagpiper will lead you all to the precipice.
Peter is completely wrong about everything. He is being a NATO shill
Unless he has just swallowed the NATO narrative hook line and sinker.
Quite a disappointment.
No Peter it's not going to be 600,000 Russ😂ia is increasing its mobilization to 1.5 million. At least you can get some facts straight.
@@wilsonluytan212Never knew Hameln was somewhere up in Scotland. Interesting perspective nevertheless.
It is a rare occurrence that interviewer makes a summary of important points at the end and for that alone would deserve praise but of course there were much more.
Great interview, I’ve heard Peter speak about all this quite a bit lately and he does it very well. But what I liked the most was the end summary the young lady gave about what Peter spoked about and she did it in plain English 👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍 Thank you 😊
Great interview Maggie. I watched you interview Peter a year ago. He made some strong predictions and you challenged him on them a year later. It's important to test our prophets. Peter has sound logic and Intel but he needs to be challenged. Thank you for doing what I couldn't. An extremely helpful podcast
One year has passed since his first wave of predictions and let's actually be honest... very little of it actually came to fruition.
Exactly
Thanks for sharing!
This guy clearly takes state department propoganda at face value. Ukraine has been a us proxy since at least 2014......they've gotten completely wrecked, the us sends them weapons that don't even work. All their military is dead. No one even left to use the junk they keep sending.
He is the smartest propagandist out there. The White house should hire this guy.
Most people accept for facts what he says, even if it is false.
But it will! It will (Or maybe it wont)
This perhaps the most amazing interviews ever. A brilliant man.
Interesting interview. I think Maggie is doing a fantastic job of asking the right questions in the right order, at the right cadence. I'd like to see her do more interviews with listenable interviewees like Zeihan.
Thanks for watching!
First time I've heard her...she is excellent.
O dear but let’s hope it’s just me
@@lawrencefunding8219 not really
Peter is listenable, but not a very good analyst. Wrong on so much, too much personal bias.
Finally Peter admits the Russian people understand privation. So I've spent a lot of time in Ukraine and ventured into Russia once. One can't help but understand how similar their societies are. Most of the Ukrainians I speak with note their families raise 100-200kg of potatoes every year. Food preservation is a normal activity. As long as they have access to their preserved food and potatoes they will not starve. One also has to understand normal salaries. Unless one lives in a city the equivalent of $200/month is normal. And it seems like everyone's boss skips out on paying them at least once a year.
I taught English to Ukrainian university students (Slavyansk) from 2018 to 2019. My faculty colleagues told me they regularly give 5% cut of their salary to their boss, the heard of the English Department, who gave 5% of his salary to her boss, the head to the university, who gave 5% of his salary to the head of the state Bureau of Education, etc, etc.......
Great interviewer. She knows what she's talking about but she gives space for Peter to say his opinions
I think Peter needs to watch a few Douglas Mcgregor and Scott Ritter interviews to understand the dynamics on the ground.
Totally agree.
Thank you for this interview.
Great interview, appreciate your summary Maggie Lake, thanks.
AMAZING INTERVIEW . well done . Great questions and conversations…
lessons learned and a new subber from Ottawa Ontario Canada 🇨🇦
Wow, what an interesting show. I love this macro outlooks, thank you for your work
Excellent Maggie. Well done
Many thanks!
I'm long TIPS and I Bonds because of Mr. Zeihan. Great show, Maggie.
good luck lol
Very _very_ concise summary at the end. Watch the whole thing so the summary is a review. It's a summary, not a substitute for the conversation.
The master of false certainty is always entertaining
*I know right. There's nothing more dangerous than a "fake friend" (Puntin & Xi)*
This dude Peter is nuts!
Care to clarify your statement?
@@0patience4flz you are so true
That's why brainwashed PRC residents believe Pooh-Daddy, or say that they do.
The best interviewer and the topics. And Peter as usually is fantastic!
Lots of wrong predictions. Always USA centristic and thats a Problem. All his predictions about Germany wrong btw, too.
Amazing interview, truly.
Semiconductor shortage.
If my refrigerator is unable to communicate with my lawn-mower, I shall endure the consequences with stoicism.
Appreciate the summary at the end
We love making the takeaways for you guys!
I haven’t heard a better breakdown of the macro situation that affects the world today. This guy is good!
Thanks for watching!
@Jack Smith yet… it’s a slow moving iceberg
Good interview; been watching Peter fairly intensely in the past weeks and have been able to deduce a lot of his logic. There is a lot of common sense baked into his predictions but there hasn't been enough time to establish his hit rate yet. But, in aggregate, I think a lot of his views make sense assuming the data he uses as established fact is true. But I appreciate his ability to transform his understanding into entertaining discussion flow that helps to educate and to provide for provocative dialog.
Thanks for watching!
My comment was intended for the advert on during a pause in Peter's programme. By chance it could technically apply to Peter but as an economist I hang on his every word.
The summary section at the end was excellent. Really great ending!
I've listened to about eighteen minutes of this podcast so far. Your very knowledgeable guest is only underscoring my fears.
XiXiPi's goals have been worldwide domination by 2049 for decades. This is no secret, but the majority of individuals have no power nor resources to do anything about it. It's GOING to happen, and the only possibility that could thwart it is highly unlikely to materialize.
Thanks for watching! Check the whole conversation, will give you extra insights!
THIS MEANS SAVE YOUR MONEY FOR THE FUTURE, BECAAUSE SS MAY NOT BE THERE,
Finally remembered to exhale.
Thanks Peter for sharing your due diligence.
Getting Peter Z is such a score for Real Vision. Wonderful Raoul. Thank you
Thanks for watching!
You may appreciate this guy but I can tell you that he is fundamentally completely wrong and everything that he says you should think oh it's the opposite of that that's true. He's a NATO shell singing the NATO narrative. I won't send for that It upsets me to be lied to.
Thanks for your time and your smarts 😊
This guy speaks in absolutes
He is sweeping which is easy to hear and buy.. but believe he is a neocon stooge!
Speaks with confidence but I agree the outlook is not that predictable, by anyone.
If you are paid a lot for your opinion you say it like you know it is right. He uses a lot of hyperbole but usually has something useful to say. You just have to figure out which bits are true 😂
@Lawrence Gracie He uses analytics to make his protections. And if you listen and read his works from ten 10 ago until now, he's more often right.
@@jhrusa8125 you lost me at 'protections'.. 🤣
Great conversation!!
Thanks for watching!
Thank you for the review at the end! Love Zeihan on!
Thanks for watching!
Peter is smart for sure. History may disagree on some points in the end. I suspect most of his macro analysis is close to home. That said, I think Maggie Lake was the STAR of that interview. Going forward, I would subscribe to see all of her interviews!
Maggie is top-notch!! Thanks for watching!
What he left out was that the Ukrainian army had been engaging in battle with the Donebass for more than 8 years.
And you missed out the part about the Russian separatist groups funded by the kremlin.
neither of which is justification to invade..
Remind me again, what country is Donbas is in? Can you name a country where a population starting up an armed separatist movement backed by an aggressive neighbouring country would be met with a shrug?
@@GK-wn6ur Remind me again... How many people did the Ukrainians killed in Donbas before the war?
“The Donbas”
Isn’t that in Ukraine?
Literally says that at 2 min dummy.
Adele said so herself, in the song 'Skyfall'.
"This is the end
Hold your breath and count to ten
Feel the Earth move and then
Hear my heart burst again
For this is the end
I've drowned and dreamt this moment
So overdue, I owe them
Swept away, I'm stolen"
A really excellent interview. I've been listening to Peter on multiple platforms and this might be the best. Simple lucid questions and the ability to listen without interruption. Well done.
And you've not realised he's wrong on so many levels, and can't see past his own biases. Your not paying attention.
Well Peter tends to see the worst case likely scenario but people , states, leaders and the world do have a habit of muddling through.
@@one4320Right you are this man is a NATO shill 100%. If he knows anything of the truth he's not speaking it.
Thank you
Good work!
Thanks for watching!
Great interview and exchange of ideas. I particularly like the summary at the end.
Thanks for watching!
@Dr. Pyssinshytz That's the title of his book. Actually, several books..
Thanks for the episode!
“HAALLLIIBBUURRTTON… walked away on MORAL grounds!” Lol!
Fantastic interview. i love Peter and i watch his channel too, have all his books and he has some great information all the way around. As with anything, he isn't a prognosticator but he does bring up some important points and some possible outcomes, i agree with most of what he says just based on his data he puts forth and how he frames it. Love seeing his view on things.
Thanks for watching!
Peter bases almost everything on data, he uses real data to back up his analysis.
I just saw and listened to this vid for the first time, but I've been listening to Peter for a long time. Peter tends to stick to a tight script in his interviews but I believe he's at his best and most interesting when an interviewer can take him off script a bit with more detailed questions and discussion. Maggie you did that and it resulted in a great discussion. There is so much happening! Thanks.
He is sticking to the narrative that the CIA gave him. There is no truth in anything he says usually you can imagine it's the opposite of what he is saying. Ukraine is no match for the Russian military. You will see soon. Soon they will not be able to hide it anymore.
Excellent interview
Fascinating.
Great interview as usual, Maggie. Always great to hear Peter even though he makes a lot of black and white predictions without factoring that some Nations (or new blocs) may outplay and outperform at Geo political chess.
Thanks for watching!
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Lots of bad news for people who want to believe their countries can just ignore geographic realities if they just play better at geopolitical chess.
It's perfectly normal for Peter to get a lot of pushback since he is the bearer of bad news for a LOT of people around the globe.
@@FreagaZ But he is usually wrong... Russian crude is still flowing, no starvation or food shortage of any consequence happened last year, I can keep writing but his most important predictions turned out to be hyperbole at best.
@@Prashant44082 He's usually right, we are only one year into Ukraine war, let it play out. Countries had reserves for the past year and the Ukraine grain deal lasted a year. Look at China now, 21% youth unemployment, economy slipped into deflation, real estate prices collapsing, exports down and that's not counting what they are hiding.
My wife is the Director of Business Incentives for our state. I stumbled across a video of a talk that you gave in Shreveport Louisiana. As we are also within that 600 mile radius from New Orleans, we found the video very informative and have been sharing the link with local developers within the state. Thanks for the insight!
Outstanding interview!
Amazing information......bravo Peter
This guy sounds like a correspondent from CNN talking about Russia/ukraine.... if you know what I mean.
Still amusing
She is hands down the best interviewer I have seen. I thoroughly enjoy her interviews.
Thanks for watching!
Great channel do feel we get some great intel on what is going on in the world here. Great job!
Excellent interview.
Your interviewing skills are fantastic. Great questions, great pace, great recap. Go you!
Excellent inputs from Peter Zeiham
I ❤love listening to Peter, great video thank you
Just take note of fact not opinions in other words don’t be so silly
He’s an independent thinker. Like that.
My pedantic quibble is lasers are not typically used in "etching" semiconductors as Peter often states. That's generally done with plasma or terrible acids. The neon lasers are on the photolithography equipment that makes the pattern to be etched, in a later step.
True enough, but the point is that the UV lasers are required to make the make the best semiconductor chips, so it's a distinction without much importance.
@@philblum1496
That's true but I did say I was being pedantic. More broadly, it's good to be technically correct in what you're saying when you wade into commenting on technical stuff and this is the most technical of stuffs.
Thank you for your insight.
Thank you Peter
The more i listen to him
The more i th8nk we are going into a world depression
If globalisation truly is ending then yeah word real gdp going down down
Very informative
Glad it was helpful!
Super informative! Thanks!
This is a great interview however I would have to disagree slightly about the Neon and semiconductors coming to an end neon is used as a buffer gas just like argon and Krypton however I believe there is a company called gigaphoton that back in 2011 invented a technology that would recycle Neon gas which would reduce neon usage by 25% for complex semiconductors. The hTGM rolled out of production around 2016 and I believe is offered as a free option to add to their technology from the company if vendors switch to a Neon gas recycling program that reduces the usage by 25% which is significant. Semiconductor manufacturers will probably be able to stay ahead of the problem.
TSMC announced the Arizona factory in May 2020, initially pledging $12 billion toward it. In December, the company increased that to $40 billion, with plans to upgrade the factory with more advanced - though not the most advanced - chip-making technology.
They're building 12 chip fabs there I believe.
Thanks for sharing!
Deal cancelled
Intel is building 2 chip plants right now in Columbus, Ohio. 50bil+ investment!
Ok, but still dependent on ASML chip fabricating. Anyway US can develop this technology?
Peter Zeihan is my favorite boomer fan fiction.
Well said!!!
Just some advice….you should learn what the foundations of your society are, and figure out what happens if those foundations go away without a plan to replace them. Good luck kiddo.
Thanks for watching!
He is not a boomer. He was born in 1973 hence x generation.
Excellent discussion!
Thanks!
Thanks for watching!
Nice to hear from a real expert who explains whats going to happen ...and later explain why exactly it didnt.
Thanks for watching!
the way you put it.. it's hilarious! 🤣
You got a way with words my friend! Well put!👍👍
As always, very enlightening conversation.
Thanks for watching!
Brilliant interview!
Thanks for watching!
Interesting analysis. Surprisingly there hasn't been more discussion on these key factors in mainstream media. Now the difficult question, who can and how can they fix this or improve the situation?
An excellent discussion with Peter Zeihan. Thank you
Thanks for watching!
Peter’s opinions are almost being stated here as facts. He’s rather extreme in his views, and I’d be careful.
Waw! Awesome interview
Fantastic analysis.
I never comment ….. very very good …great insight …. Up there with the best of them!
Thanks for watching!
The issue is whole foods vs processed, not plant vs animal foods
I would love to hear Peters view on the UK leaving the EU
As usual, listen to Peter is the best intel about the international issues that we encounter!
Listen, and do the opposite of what he says, works almost 100% of the time.
@@CScott-wh5yk So very true.
I'm less concerned about his prognostications and more interested with the scope of his analysis. When he is wrong, what factors are being left out? He and the creator of "Real Life Lore" are rich in both information and analysis. With every sentence I feel like I am, at least, gaining perspective.
I would like to see an honest review of his 2022 predictions and see how they are stacking up. Maggie, you could do a good job at this.
The weather changes and his predictions are no longer valid. It is surprisingly soothing to listen to the random musings of a prophet. I guess the oracle profession is still lucrative even though it has no intrinsic value.
Wow, this guy opens his mouth and in 10 seconds shows me he is absolutely out to lunch.
....good, real man....
Peter's best moment was when he told Canada they weren't a country lol !
Don't you know, you know Trudeau and Canada will be the greatest socialist nation in North America?
I would love to hear Peter's opinion on my country,Nigeria, especially after our recent election.
Is the government still trying to force everyone to use the cbdc?
African countries won't pay back the debts.
I'd love to listen to a Nigerian who took the time to study the detailed, boring economic statistics, the detailed, boring statistics about education, employment and industrial activity, and then turn all this data into fun, exciting and entertaining material. Because this is, more or less, what Peter seems to be doing.
Interesting!
You do a great broadcast. Thanks . I can sit at my desk and follow the conversation.
We appreciate it!
I love the interview summary
Thanks for watching!
Another excellent video. I was at the digital pound foundation conference tonight here in london and it was fascinating what is to come. Also regarding China/Russia CBDC threatening the Dollar Reserve
Poseidon is coming
The dollar WILL die
Thanks for watching!
@@adrianobernardes4448 There is no alternative to the dollar. Not the Yuan, Ruble, Pound, or Euro. But haters gonna hate.
@@chrishooge3442 hahaha wait and see.
Lot of possibilities, and a lot of guess work, but let's hope everything turns out positive.
Great interview from both sides
Thanks for watching!
How does the Xi / Putin agreement for energy affect predictions, and switching to yuan currency.
They have to transport that energy several thousand miles.that will drive the cost of the energy any where from 5 to 10 times the industrial average.
As a Chinese, I wish all Americans vote for this Peter Zaihan dude as the president of the united states
Is that sort of like wishing Biden was President of the US?
O dear the man is dilusional
Quality
Fertilizers won't be a problem, for now. We got tons of Sargassum being harvested as an alternative every day.
That's encouraging, ty.