How Xi Jinping’s authoritarianism is killing China’s economy | Business Beyond
Vložit
- čas přidán 27. 04. 2024
- China’s economy has been flashing red on various fronts for the past few years. A severe property crisis and the struggle to emerge from strict pandemic restrictions are routinely blamed for problems ranging from deflation to sluggish growth. But in this episode of Business Beyond, we ask if there are more fundamental reasons behind the world’s second biggest economy’s malaise. Under Xi Jinping, the Chinese Communist Party has become more controlling than at any stage in the past four decades. Does authoritarianism place a cap on economic growth? In this episode we ask if Xi's desire for control at all costs is the main reason why so many people, both within China and outside of it, have lost faith in a global economic powerhouse’s capacity to bounce back.
And a special request to our viewers: we would love to hear what you think of Business Beyond. Fill in the survey here to share your thoughts about the show: surveys.dw.com/c/businessbeyond
CHAPTERS
Introduction - 00.00
Double whammy: a pandemic and a property crisis - 01.42
The confidence deficit - 04.25
Is Xi the problem? - 7.37
War of distraction? - 13.31
Demographic disaster - 15.50
A tech dragon? - 17.25
Conclusion - 19.55
Credits: 22.35
Ends: 22.51
Subscribe: czcams.com/users/deutsche...
For more news go to: www.dw.com/en/
Follow DW on social media:
►Facebook: / deutschewellenews
►Twitter: / dwnews
►Instagram: / dwnews
►Twitch: / dwnews_hangout
Für Videos in deutscher Sprache besuchen Sie: / dwdeutsch
#china #industrial #ccp
Just the idea that you can force companies to sign agreements that hand over all their customer data to the the government on one hand and then be surprised when the rest of the world stops buying and investing in those companies. It’s juvenile
It’s their system and it works
C I A says hi
Isn't US want rTikktok do the same?
@@mengreat6982 divestiture. If feds wanted data from American companies, the companies can always tell them to sod off, see Apple.
U.S. does that too. This can 't be the factor.
If you're a despotic Emperor, the last thing you want is a free, politically empowered population; you want obedient, loyal minions who worship you. Mao wasn't the least bit bothered by the starving millions around him.
I think you just got a very naive mind, and a very very unrealistic view of the world.
@@phillip76 "naive mind" - i approve of this definition. You can also say “alternatively gifted”. “Indigo child”, “person of an alternative mindset”.
@@phillip76Actually he has a very good grasp of history. Mao was one of history's greatest administrative bunglers. Incompetent.
Mao is dead! Dude your mind is still in the past lol
@@user-tf6mu6qf6e Are you talking about Mao, because I have no idea what Mao thinks. I was talking about modern Chinese leadership.
Announcing you intend to invade Taiwan is not helpful. It smacks of instability and has Russia like consequences for the economy. Who would invest in that market under those circumstances??
China has made this statement since its founding, it did not stop foreign investments.
@@kevinc1200 But their military, especially the navy, were completely incapable until recently.
NOT HELPFUL FOR WHO, YOU ! TAIWAN IS PART OF CHINA, HOW CAN THE CHINESE INVADE ITSELF ! THE U.S PRESENCE IN ASIA IS NOT HELPFUL TO NO ONE IN ASIA BUT WASHINGTON
@@zacklewis342 Don't worry, they are just trying to scare the world and the world is becoming paranoid and it's working
Especially so when they never had the intention of doing so.
Those demographic numbers are way, way out! They will lose 300 million by 2050 and 6-700 million by 2100. Those are Shanghai and Beijing University numbers. The 2050 population is expected to be 1 billion people. The over all population drop isn't even the story, it's the far worse (if that was possible) working age population. They are extinct in any meaningful sense. There will few people to consume and be educated enough to do so, and that assumes everything goes right! Also needs to be mentioned absolutely nobody believes the population numbers. If you look at ALL the evidence, the best guess is 1.3 billion in 2024, some say 1.280bn. There are 100m people that don't exist that were in the numbers faked by provinces for reasons of funding.
Finally, someone who doesn't taking Chinese government statistics at face value. I'd also take their claim of 5.2% GDP growth last year with a sackful of salt.
The 5% growth was not from China. That was from the World Bank. The same one that calced USA's 3% growth.
30, 000 Chinese nationals have emigrated to the US in the past year through the US southern border.
Actually, your numbers are too optimistic as well. Some estimates are a current population UNDER a billion, with the true figure somewhere around 1.1 to 1.2.
Does anyone believe any official data coming from the Chinese gov't. Agencies get told what their annual target for the year is to be and know what happens to the head officials if its not achieved.
According to these economy experts, the higher the house prices, the better. No matter if it's only 10% of the wealthiest individual that can buy them, it doesn't matter if most of the housing money are leveraged by banks, as long as the house price goes up, everything is fine. Yeah, that will work great with the demographics of 50 years from now.
Liked this format. Just the right amount of concise and analyst insight with minimal drama. Greetings from Spain.
It spews nonsense from the beginning. FDI to China last year was over USD 150 billion. How could it be 33 billion?
LOL, look at how the USA kills its allies' economy today while ExxonMobil always hits a new world record on net profit every time the US Democratic party wins the US presidential election. LOL
One-Child Policy (1979-2015) may be an Achilles Heel, not only of China's economy but, also of its military. If a war erupts involving the Chinese military, every Chinese military personnel killed or maimed in battle would produce two unsupported senior parents inside China, plus the grief of the loss of a single child. It may be fair to assume that a large majority of the Chinese military personnel at this time are single children, and the multiple losses of these personnel would have a psychologically destabilizing impact on the Chinese population.
Sorry China is not interested war with NATO.
@@TheKkpop1China is not interested in war with the US either. But China doesn't want to be another Iraq, or Afghanistan or Libya or Syria or even Ukraine. So it's building it military to deter the US from doing what the US does to every other country.
China population problems not only happen in there..... Other western ally have similar problems...only immigration offset that... And alot of Western countries like us move to extreme right and want to decrease immigration drastically.. Not to mention China have alot of spare citizens unlike Western countries and mostlikely just run away like Ukraine when the war happens.
@@TheKkpop1 China has been preparing for World War since Xi declared emperor
@@anubizz3 你在这扯啥呢，把中国和发达国家比
There are similarities between China and Japan. The declining birth/fertility rate, the set up for a ‘lost decade’ and economic stagnation. However Japan have a much better capacity to deal with this issue as it’s already set up itself as an advanced economy and they’re also a liberal democracy that is part of Western Alliance in Asia alongside Australia, South Korea, New Zealand and maybe even India. In conclusion China’s crises could be even more dire than what Japan has experienced.
Only superficial demographic similarities. Japan managed to get rich before it got old. And while it is old, Japan doesn't have the gender disparity that plagues China. Millions of Chinese men will never marry or leave descendants. This has profound implications for a society schooled in Confucian ideals.
@@pervertt😂😂😂China 0 recession
China 0 inflation
Usa recession
Uk recession
France recession
Germany recessing
India recession
Taiwan recession
@@jacksmith-mu3eechinas real gdp is likely shrinking. China's population shrinking. China has deflation which is worse than inflation. USA economy grew 2.3% last year.
@@SelfProclaimedEmperor Agreed . China lied
They claimed their economy is rising by 5.2% , that's a lie . Real growth is 50% . Even usa is under chinese loans
U are correct . West is a country that definitely exist on planet pluto
No child policy in usa is making sure that west a country that definitely exists in your mom bedroom 😂😂😂😂 gets chinese exports
@@SelfProclaimedEmperor deflation doesn't shrink economy . Inflation does
"without underpaying their workers" ummm do you understand why consumption is so low??
If the CCP authorities really cared about the Chinese economy and the hundreds of millions of poor people in China, they would create laws that made rich people spent most of their time wondering the country side looking for cheap things and food to buy, as opposed to buying houses, cars, and expensive meals in high-demand countries like Canada, Australia or the rest of the west, so that China's economy would rebound in a consumption-driven way. Instead of looking for the CCP's next target to bully after Hong Kong, Taiwan, and the Philippines.
Chinese policy makers are frustrated consumer are not spending when Chinese had the very high saving (2.5 trillions). In the meantime, Chinese wages are improving in recent years, forcing many Chinese entrepreneurs to relocate low wages industries to lower income neighborhood.
volume or price index?
German companies underpaying workers around the world not the government's did you know about this?
It depends on relative pay and in the high tech sector factory workers are being paid more than waiters and service industry personnel. Obviously if you compare to European and US standards almost the entire country is underpaid… but the cost of living is much lower
Many Chinese people were buying and flipping real estate properties,
but that sector has cratered, leaving many people holding the bags.
Private building companies, like Evergrande using the new deposits to provide working capital to complete current projects is doomed to fail. Fortunately 90% of Chinese families own their own home, and more than 20% of Chinese families own multiple homes. Source US NATIONAL LIBRARY OF MEDICINE, ON SOCIAL INEQUALITY OCT.10, 2020 This achievement is particularly impressive and is in sharp contrast to the recent decline of homeownership rate in the U.S., Western Europe and other developed countries.
Taking out Jack Ma sent a very very very bad economic signal
That was one and a half years ago. ( about Jack Ma being threaten by ...... ) Meaning those who are still buy BABA thinking the shares are still cheap, are making crazy decision as an investor.
And bad decision for who are still buying BABA shares.
It’s a very very good signal for the people: no capitalist is above the state in China. The state is for the people, and the capitalist is just one of the people, not above everyone else. China is a socialist country and it stays true to that intension.
@@TuhunluunBionoid socialist aka misfunctioning and corrupt ..
but hey at least the citizens dont have freedom of speech to express the misfunction or the corruption so everything is dandy right wumao ?
Yep, everyone on higher echelons of the economy will be afraid of reaching the top.
Taiwan's constitution also regards the entire China as under Taiwan. So they actually are in agreement.
Chinese 🇨🇳 property sector, which accounts for 30% of GDP, is crashing.
- Exports and imports, accounting for 37% GDP, are down.
- Foreign investment (FDI) is falling over 90%, lowest in 3 decades.
- Foreign visitors are down 96% compared to the pre-pandemic level in 2019.
- Consumer prices are experiencing deflation.
- Youth unemployment hits over 21%, a record.
- Its fast-shrinking workforce is 10 years older than neighboring countries.
*Still, China keeps reporting outrageous GDP numbers.* Lol
Where does the growth come from?
China wants to property market to crash to make housing more affordable
Exports are down because of “nearshoring”
Geopolitics means that china doesn’t need FDI
When property sector was OK and accounts for 30% of GDP, the GDP growth of China was 7%. It means that the GDP growth other than property sector was 4.9%. And now the GDP growth is 5.2% without bubble, in the mean time, people can also enjoy a low property price, I'd consider it a success.
Hi troll
You and Last Chang are the same person.
Btw China economy will collapse in your dreams tonite and every nite
@@mochen9282How? Did you go to school at all?
Same story with the US stock market at an all-time high maybe
China has fallen into the "middle income trap". China should have developed its domestic market as it developed its manufacturing sector. But now the cost of Chinese labor is higher than that in Vietnam and India; so foreign investment is leaving Earth's largest prison. Xi Jinping is worsening a bad situation: he threatens war with Taiwan; he tightens his grip on power; he prolongs the problems which were caused by the bursting of the real estate bubble (and spreads the problems to the banking sector); he pours money into the already excessively large manufacturing sector; he continues to pour money into useless infrastructure projects; he scares away foreign investors; ... the list is almost endless.
One of the reasons that so much money was poured into infrastructure is to inflate GDP figures (and to nourish the middle class worker ofcourse). Local governments are responsible for GDP growth and accepting money from Beijing to build useless bridges is an easy way to meet the target
Infrastructure are useless, US citizens will totally agree with u😂
@@LouiseChong-xk5xp -- The poor province of Guizhou has as many km of highways as Japan has. Money and resources are being wasted in order to reach Xi Jinping's 5 percent annual GDP growth.
@@LouiseChong-xk5xp Totaly disagree! Roads/interstates, bridges, airports, shipping ports are all government (state & national) investments. Sports stadiums are useless. There is a reason that the richest US state/cities are on the east and west coast of the USA; they have ports of entry.
@@CasperChicago but when I visited, stadiums are well maintained, meanwhile I have to endure pee smell and flying rubbish at subway. Flying plastic bag on the road is a norm while riding car😬 remembered my first visit, I was like omg, it is totally gta
They are the master of deceiving that lasts long. Also the world is fooled from greedy expectation. Giving too much credit to dishonest liars!
The only dishonest liars are the Western media. The same media who keep quiet on who bombed Nordstream
Can you explain? I don't understand what you're referring to.
If by 'they' you mean the Chinese Communist Party, you forget that party has been hijacked by One Man - not 'they', but 'he' - Xi. This is the whole problem with one-party states; if one man (and it's always a man) takes control of the party, he takes control of the entire nation. Democracy might not be perfect, but its checks and balances prevents that from happening.
@@1KentKent I'm not going to write a book but after having worked with the Chinese for 27 years, and lived near (but not in) China for 33 years... It's true, They, as in the Chinese leaders, are the masters of deceiving. They know very well that democracy's greatest weakness is that democratic leaders cannot act without public support so they work subtly and slowly enough to not give democracy a chance to act. This has been the case for the 20 years I have followed this. Also do note that I like the vast majority of the Chinese, I specifically say the Chinese leaders
@@1KentKent Pretty sure he's talking about USA and the dollar.
Don't see the survey but can say the coverage was well put together, easy to understand, and more importantly, hugely informative and relevant to global concerns for all.
It’s fun to watch the comments of “What about the GEERRRRMAAAAN economy??”
Yes, this is German YT channel, but this is their English version - kinda makes sense they’ll have a foreign focus.
It makes no sense since German does not have anything to teach others these days
No army
No economic grow
Russians about to destroy them and they can’t even defend themselves 😂
@@PepeCoinMania
Freaking chinese bot
It's funny to see someone say something like that but with Germany.
I see people say the same thing about America. Lots of "America isn't the whole world"
But this is literally a American website dominated by Americans. Same with many other websites. I would expect a Japanese website to be dominated by Japanese.
Unless of course is like this where it might originate in one place but is aiming at a different demographic. Typically English speaking.
That's on France 24 English... "German economy buffeted by 'perfect storm'"
@@baronvonjo1929 CZcams dominated by Americans ?? you know some country like India(4 times US population), japan and the whole eu can use youtube too right ?
i will use your quote for you. America isn't the whole world
Innovation comes from the freedom to trade and share ideas. Authoritarian systems have never been good at nurturing these freedoms and always fail. We are working hard here in the USA to make sure that authoritarianism doesn't take hold here with Trump and MAGA
Too much FrEeDoM that they banned Pro-Palestanian protests in most European countries, by all mean... continue the pantomime-- not fooling anyone.
Hard working american are robbed by exuberant taxes, student loans, house loans, health insurance, car loans and credit card, leaving you with no saving and debt every month. That's how the loving and caring capitalists work pretending to pay you high income but robbing you in return.
absolutely agree. Well said!
USA Freedom to trade?? The one to start a trade war and sanctions when can't compete with the competition?? Ha ha ha...
Lol MAGAs call you the authoritarian ones.
Every system has faults
Fear of investing. Fear of going to jail forever.
Next-gen American population will decline, too, if wealth inequality is not addressed.
wealth inequality has evolved in America to be more of a serfdom-so as long as people believe they can become billionaires and are thrown enough bones, the inequality will persist until the ponzi scheme that is wall street collapses-the real hazard of this inequality is the evolution of the oligarchy-mini kings and their 'royal' dynasties. Welcome to the Gilded age pt.2
Who would buy a crumbling substandard property wasting hard earn money.
Probably can't trust banks either. No investment of earnings really secure.
@@Jack-ne8vmif you can't save, you can't earn interest, so they aren't making money either.
Why did you defer the maintenance 20 years? So you could write off the depreciation? You can't have it both ways honey🍯🎳🏦God is just, not a liar like Rockefeller and krogers
They put the profits in offshore investments, and lose it, and don't pay dividends to the investors. That is why they lose, because they are stingy, and don't share like Endor.
They would if they expected prices to rocket
Great work doing this show
Nice to stay in Austin,JB, good choice, Mr Loo! 🎉congrats!
Thank you to DW to worry about China's decline for the past 40 years plus predicting a collapse. Don't worry we Chinese are used to poverty and we are actually doing well, maybe you should worry about yourself and your economy. Our growth of 5% is still better than yours any day, so don't worry about us.
If you cannot have a objective judgement of Chinese economy, reality will.
Exactly. That's why China is doomed.
The reason why China is in trouble is the US is scared and had to halt foreign investment and use protectionism.
US being evil af yet again
you mean the stock indices right?
@@garycmli The stock index does not perfectly match with the economy.
@@garycmli It spews nonsense from the beginning. FDI to China last year was over USD 150 billion. How could it be 33 billion? Just because China invested over USD120 billion overseas last year, then FDI to China was the difference between the investment absorbed and that going out? By this way of calculation, the US would have negative FDI figures.
Great report, thank you.
Wonderful insight into a very complex issue
Meanwhile let's talk about how Scholtz's democracy is bringing prosperity to Germany's economy, and how Biden's freedom is improving American's living standards.
Not with a Chinese bot😅😅😅
@@d.a.t.7723 看得出来你家里人4完了
4:00 "Property down"? Half price and less in prime location is called a "free fall"!
30-40%, not half
We're not yet at half but let's see
@@michaelgothenburg364 You are right, but as a prop owner wanting to sell and cannot close with 40% off, then we are effectively at 50%! Even then we don't know if we can close a deal...
@@cyberslim7955 I have heard of some sales at 30-40% off, I have not heard of any at 50%. I still think 30-40% is quite realistic, with many people not accepting to sell at all. Definitely a pretty bad situation over there
I can understand them not wanting to use the term, but... yeah, can't argue with your point, that's bad news.
This is compared to the USD.
What about their own sustainability within BRICS?
If 5.2%-growth is killing, then -0.3% is dead.
China shouldn’t be expecting to sell EV’s in USA.
lol, they'll be building them in Mexico, and selling it anyway, as made in Mexico
@@f1racer908 Owner is Chinese and trade deals can be abridged
@@jlangenberg US government is not allowing Americans to buy or use whatever goods they want, American business are not allowed to do business with whoever they want. So who is a dictator here?
@@DineshTwanabasu when was the last time you bought cocaine? What time must you leave the bar? Government has become a controlling element but if are seriously comparing USA to CCP China I really think you need to spend some time in today’s Hong Kong
@@jlangenberg Don't worry, world is changing and today over 140 Countries has China as the largest trading partner. World is enjoying Chinese goods. Its The US citizens that were not allowed to choose.
Again who is dictating its people and companies what to do and not to.
The West is of course happy about this, for better or for worse, rich Chinese are bringing them money overseas and investing in West locales where they believe prices will only increase. This has caused property value in immigrant-heavy jurisdictions to increase rapidly over the past several decades. Countries like Canada, Australia, etc.
true
but these countries are now regulating chinese purchases of real estate (particularly in my country of Canada) much more strictly, so it is no longer going to be a 'safe haven' for rich chinese and their capital flight from their broken system
They touched on it in the video, but a prolonged downturn in China will be particularly harsh on Australia too.
China is Australia's largest trading partner, accounting for $125bn AUD annually - 27% of all foreign trade. Although the 2 country's trade balances are almost neutral with each other.
So as a result, the longer the downturn in China, the slower trade velocity may become impacting Australia's economy.
Am Australian and pay close attention to this.
But when china price drop, u people say china is collapsing. So your price hike should be a good sign😂
Thanks DW, you're the best 👍👍
Ok trollm🤣🤣
Thank you DW for the great documentary.
😂1990. The Economist. China's economy has come to
a
halt.
1996. The Economist. China's economy will face a
hard
landing
1998. The Economist: China's economy entering a
dangerous period of sluggish growth.
1999. Bank of Canada: Likelihood ofahard landing
for
the Chinese economy.
2000. Chicago Tribune: China currency move nails
hard
landing risk coffin.
2001. Wilbanks, Smith & Thomas: A hard landingin
China.
2002. Westchester University: China Anxiously Seeks
a
Soft Economic Landing
2003. KWR International: How to find a soft landing in
China.
2004. The Economist: The great fall of China?
2005. Nouriel Roubini: The Risk of a Hard Landingin
China
2006. International Economy: Can China Achieve a
Soft
Landing?
2007.TIME:Is China's Economy Overheating? Can
China
avoid ahard landing?
2008. Forbes: Hard Landing In China?
2009 Fortune: China's hard landing China must find a
way to recover.
2010. Nouriel Roubini: Hard landing coming in China.
2011. Business Insider: A Chinese
2012. American Interest: Dismal Economic News
from
China: A Hard Landing
2013 Zero Hedge: A Hard Landing In China
2014. CNBC: A hard landing in China.
201 5 Forbes: Congratulations, J You Got Yourself A
Chinese Hard Landing
2016. The Economist: Hard landing looms for China
2017. National Interest: Is China's Economy Going To
Crash?
2020. Economics Explained: The Scary Solution to the
Chinese Debt Crisis
2021. Global Economics: Has China's Downfall
Started?
2022. Cathie Wood: China's COLLAPSE Is FAR Worse
Than Vou Think
Very Good and Detailed Analysis, Many Many thanks DW!!
BS lies, Reality is a lot different, China is in space with its own space station look up at night, and you see it, China has changed the world for good in the 80s a video used to cost over 100 dollars few people could afford a phone, thanks to the Chinese we all can afford things that used to be only for the few.
Everyone should be pushing companies to devest in china, prevent war, strengthen friendlier countries economys.
Foreign brands account for only 13 percent of China exports. Please stop exposing your ignorance in a public forum!
yea we are buying Mercedes and BMW less, we dont need Mercedes and BMW in China
Germany is not friendly to us
Everyone = US neocons. And it's working to an extent.
@@kenho-wr5ul2rh7m You need to buy from North Korea, Russia and Iran. Birds of a feather flock together
War mongering.
Excellent overview and insight.
thank you.
The effect DW overuses to switch between scenes makes me queasy. Can't watch it. Why not just switch scenes?
They are possibly trying to brainwash you using subliminal marketing techniques. just ignore the impulse to buy anything.
Yep. I stopped watching because of it.
When you have a debt driven economy that focuses on the political vs the market, this is what inevitably happens. You can't fool the market. And the market is the ultimate voice of the people.
Are you describing the US and Japan?
@@MishkataPingvinhe’s describing liberty, that’s essentially what a free market is all about.
By that logic I think they have been fooling the market pretty well in the last decades.
@@goeleal1520 There's an end to all things, and China is at the end of its money printing rope. If you are unaware of its deficit and local debit issues, then you haven't been paying attention. But don't believe me, just wait a year or two and read this receipt.
@@goeleal1520 yeah, it’s called total government subsidization and cheap labor.
More videos with this format but on a range of topics 👍 hello 👋 from the UK
Actually Chinese households were able to keep their homes, and not be thrown onto the street as in the _non-authoritarian_ US.
the current auctioning properties in China stops count at 4 million. In other words, 4 million households are thrown out of their properties
@@OnMusicSoon1 Nope.
Very detailed analysis. Thank you for the hard work
Its easy to grow your economy when you are selling everything below the cost of capital and simultaneously leverage up every level of government spending with huge amounts of zero interest debt while in a real estate bubble. Until the music stops.
Ask yourself one question: would you choose to hold an apartment in Shanghai over that of New York, Paris, London, Zurich, Tokyo?
No, you would not. For reasons that are obvious to all. Even the Chinese. So Capital has started to act accordingly. Its leaving.
they are trying to conive with Chinese nationals living in foreign lands to compete with the local businesses in the goal of monopolizing the market.. like in our country some Chinese national will be able to sell an expensive component at a very low price because they are able to get it in china at a very low price and without the need to pay upfront.. I'm not sure how they are so confident that the Chinese living abroad will be sure to pay them back but maybe that's why there are pseudo Chinese police in Canada or in other countries.. I'm not sure maybe just my conspiracy theorists. maybe I'm crazy 😂 but there's alot of Chinese businessmen able to start a business with almost nothing on their pockets..
i will easily choose Apartment in Shanghai over NYC, ive been living in both, at least Shanghai is perfectly safe, i never walked home after 11pm in NYC, no matter how close i was to home, i will take a cab, i dont want some desperate homeless people threaten me from the dark alleys. my life is precious.
Chinese work hard and efficient to produce more with less, but somehow it’s a sin, because it’s “producing below the cost of capital” according to you.
I have never heard that being hard working and smart is a bad thing. Jealousy is over flowing in your heart.
A lot of people would love to hold a real estate in Shanghai, but they can’t afford it, you are an example.
Shanghai is safer, cheaper ( outside buying property) and has way better infrastructure than NYC or London. You need to travel more, not just sitting and imaging things.
One thing which wasn't discussed: The Chinese working age population has been falling since 2015 - this followed decades of rapid growth in the workforce. From here on in Chinese economic growth will require productivity growth and/or an increasing participation rate.
THEY USING MORE ROBOTICS IN THEIR FACTORIES
@icet6665 They might be, but Chinese labour productivity growth has still been trending down for decades - currently at 4.2%. So, with a shrinking workforce, economic growth will be below this unless the participation rate can be increased.
@@AK-ej5ml Chinese skilled labor force is still at 200 million and highly skilled work force is at 60 million. Even with a demographic issue their productivity is increased by 20% over the last four years. In term of industrial output the growth has been average about 11.5 from 1990 to 2023 over the 33 year period.
This would be a definite problem if China was already developed, but China has an untapped and forgotten population who have never been part of Chinese economic miracle who are a ready and waiting resource?
@timmyg44 True, that population is there, so there is potential - however in recent years, even with the shrinking population, it doesn't look like they are joining the labour force. But often this sort of thing moves slowly, so hopefully China finds a way to increase the participation rate.
The wonderful Chinese culture and people deserve freedom. That's the way the economy will grow.
this sounds pretty sensible and rather accurate, my gut feeling is that this is an accurate analysis. thanks for the actually interesting and informative journalism :)
My feeling is that it will either rain or go dark before morning.
@@sandponics oh well. too bad 😆
Feels like government more into control of humans than economy
I don't think a well educated person would use the phrase of "killing" economics. There are ups and downs but none of any economics in the history has ever been killed.
ya, "killing" is the word usually used by intention seeking youtube channel, quite cheap.
The quality of medias nowadays. Easiest job today as they can make story without going local for interviews
Sinophobic media bias.
Western media: Genocide, killing, They think of the most sensationalist clickbait words to get you engaged.
Incorrect. Japan entering the Second World War was due to economics.
The fall of the Roman was due to economics. Can give you examples of dozens more if you wish.
yeah but we also have a global financial crises and that could also be a contributing factor if not the decisive factor
Scott Kennedy saying they should celebrate China's economic rejuvenation is ridiculous. The CCP traded China's future for short term growth. And by every model I've seen, it's outlook is nothing to celebrate.
Germany 's largest trading partner is
China
Anyone who starts his post with 'as a man from Europe' as you have done elsewhere on CZcams is almost always from the ex Soviet colonies or some small and poor, inconsequential European country.
@@LoveLove-jg9ol says the tech dinosaur .. Just click on a profile and you see what he posted... Duh
Not by much, 2023 stats of Destatis (Germany's stats amt):
Turnover (Export + import in 1k EUR)
China 253 056 431
United States 252 349 809
Netherlands 214 789 029
That gap between US and China is negligible.
And it's mostly due to import from China, as Germany moves their supply chains away, you'll see that figure drop substantially.
It doesn't look set to stay that way much longer.
Germany's father and owner is
US of A
China have a white elephant so huge, it doesn't fit in the room. Look out the window at that belt and road initiative. Beautiful thing, ain't it?
Of course it is beautiful thing, China spend money to build infrastructures while USA spend money on war
@@peterseth3296western countries have the wealth to pay their debt, china does not
AgreedAgreed . China lied
They claimed their economy is rising by 5.2% , that's a lie . Real growth is 50% . Even usa is under chinese loans
U are correct . West is a country that definitely exist on planet pluto
No child policy in usa is making sure that west a country that definitely exists in your mom bedroom 😂😂😂😂 gets chinese exports
@@SelfProclaimedEmperor which country is named west ?
@@SelfProclaimedEmperor printing dollars does not count.
Great show keep it up
I love DW. Simply superb journalism!
Haaaahaaaa! 😂 if YOU say so.
Expect a dire crisis graph and chart supporting the argument.
Dont see any graph data that will do what the title said in the video. strange
Facts speak with or without a graph.
Strange that you don't need a graph when interviewing experts with knowledge on the matter.
well usually western media is not based on data, its meant to push narratives.
are you sure? facts are just words you like to listen? it sounds so indian.@@marygem
When the CCP can produce accurate and timely charts, you will be able to see them. Hasn't happened in past 60 years, so don't get your hopes up.
DW always has very fair and balanced reporting on most topics. Breath of fresh air!!!
Breath of fresh air for ignorants. In reality it's just conforming your bias.
Really, where is the scholar with the counter point to authoritarianism means bad economy? At least bring one guy that makes a counter argument. The argument was that authoritarian means too much control means bad. But it seems to me that the Chinese measures has been fairly restrained in reining in real-estate bubble, attempting to reduce debt, resisting large stimulus that got it into trouble since 2008 and cracking down on large internet monopolies. I think maybe the last one has some political motive to it too but also a reasonable economic justification. On the other hand, US government also intervenes massively in its economy by pumping out huge stimuluses every time there is a crisis.
Balanced? They are leaning left
@@ff6790 Nope. Instead, DW seems to hv their own universe. They report about that.
It is definitely not a balanced report. All the people interviewed agree with each other, which of course is also the editorial line of DW.
FDI is one amongst other Economy indicators, however economy already has problems of booms and slump etc, as I think
Your show is # 1 no dought 👍👍
22 min. of think tank market fundamentals and supply-side freaks talking about Chinese markets without any single voice or prospective from Beijing or Shanghai about their own economy. How is journalism?
You should already know that Chinese nationals are not allowed to say the economy is doing poorly.
where did you get that idea, BBC?@@CautionBarrier
@@tedwong7037where jack ma?
China always lies about it's economy, why as them. They exaggerated their economy 300%
China always lies about it's economy, why as them. They exaggerated their economy 300%
Great, in-depth and informative journalism!
Bot
@@jacksmith-mu3ee no u
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Two years into office, President Donald Trump authorised the Central Intelligence Agency to launch a clandestine campaign on Chinese social media aimed at turning public opinion in China against its government, according to former US officials with direct knowledge of the highly classified operation.
Three former officials told Reuters that the CIA created a small team of operatives who used bogus internet identities to spread negative narratives about Xi Jinping’s government while leaking disparaging intelligence to overseas news outlets. The effort, which began in 2019, has not been previously reported.
XJP grew up in Maoist China, and he looks back nostalgically on that period of authoritarian absolutist rule. He is not a pragmatist, he doesn't care about what has been proven to grow the economy, and he just wants to turn the PRC back to the kind of authoritarian country of his childhood, even if it didn't work then and isn't working now.
1990. The Economist. China's economy has come to
a
halt.
1996. The Economist. China's economy will face a
hard
landing
1998. The Economist: China's economy entering a
dangerous period of sluggish growth.
1999. Bank of Canada: Likelihood ofahard landing
for
the Chinese economy.
2000. Chicago Tribune: China currency move nails
hard
landing risk coffin.
2001. Wilbanks, Smith & Thomas: A hard landingin
China.
2002. Westchester University: China Anxiously Seeks
a
Soft Economic Landing
2003. KWR International: How to find a soft landing in
China.
2004. The Economist: The great fall of China?
2005. Nouriel Roubini: The Risk of a Hard Landingin
China
2006. International Economy: Can China Achieve a
Soft
Landing?
2007.TIME:Is China's Economy Overheating? Can
China
avoid ahard landing?
2008. Forbes: Hard Landing In China?
2009 Fortune: China's hard landing China must find a
way to recover.
2010. Nouriel Roubini: Hard landing coming in China.
2011. Business Insider: A Chinese
2012. American Interest: Dismal Economic News
from
China: A Hard Landing
2013 Zero Hedge: A Hard Landing In China
2014. CNBC: A hard landing in China.
201 5 Forbes: Congratulations, J You Got Yourself A
Chinese Hard Landing
2016. The Economist: Hard landing looms for China
2017. National Interest: Is China's Economy Going To
Crash?
2020. Economics Explained: The Scary Solution to the
Chinese Debt Crisis
2021. Global Economics: Has China's Downfall
Started?
2022. Cathie Wood: China's COLLAPSE Is FAR Worse
Than Vou Think
people do not think of how they going to pay a rent, real state fee double of your monthly salary and if you loss your job then what..of course you will lose the house and everything else
At the same time, house prices have escalated beyond affordability for many young families in the west and food prices have been alarmingly high! China’s railway and public transportation system also puts us to shame. I wouldn’t write them off at this stage.
Only smart one here.
@@TuhunluunBionoid Count yourself into the elite group of 2!
25-1-2024 German Chamber of Commerce in China: 91% of the companies surveyed have no intention of withdrawing; 46% expect Chinese companies to become industry leaders.
The German Chamber of Commerce in China released the "2023/24 Business Confidence Survey Report" on January 24, stating that 5% of the surveyed companies believe that Chinese companies are already innovation leaders in their industries; 46% of the surveyed companies expect that Chinese companies Become an industry leader in the next five years.
The report also shows that 91% of the companies surveyed have no plans to leave China, 78% of the companies expect that their industry will continue to grow in the next five years, and 54% of the companies plan to increase investment.
The survey was conducted from September 5 to October 6, 2023. A total of 566 member companies of the German Chamber of Commerce in China accepted the survey.
The German Chamber of Commerce in China currently has more than 2,100 member companies and is the official association of German companies in China.
"in China". Reliable survey? 🤣🤣🤣🤣
@@user-tf6mu6qf6e sure because this survey was made by the German Chamber of Commerce.
@@user-tf6mu6qf6emakes you sad?
they trust what they trust
@@MSDGroup-ez6zk did it ever occur to you that they are getting the data from those who are in China? Did it ever occur to you that yes it comes from an independent agency but the interview took place in China? Anything that goes out from China passes through the CCP. For all we know they have so much control with data that it's impossible to ever get the real data from them.
So true
Xi Jinping must be related to ebay because there's tons of loyalty there.
As the video itself says, one thing to bear in mind is that with the possible exception of the oil monarchies, no nondemocratic country has *ever* escaped the middle income trap.
Another ignorant China collapse story. Western media is so pathetic!
if they are number 2 already by not even reaching middle income trap yet, you really want a democratic China? You think a Democratic China will be less beligerent and competitive?
China's per capita GDP is lower than Russia and Argentina right now. Yes, that Russia and that Argentina, right now.
@@ylstorage7085 1. Yes. More democracy means a better world. 2. Yes. Democracies get in far fewer wars with each other than authoritarian powers do. Conclusion: A democratic China is far better for international relations than an authoritarian one.
@@guydreamr
China gdp per capita is more than 12k mark.
Do you have any problem when monarchy, junta and democracy failed to work except communism in modern Chinese history? Democracy is a process, the end product is better income, healthcare, peace, prosperity, education and good living standard.
@@TheKkpop1 Communism failed in China too, how did the Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution work out? Such a failure, in fact, that it was abandoned by Deng in favor of a mixed economy, or "socialism with Chinese characteristics."
China's current GDP per capita of 12K places it firmly in the middle income camp. And if history is any guide, unless it strikes oil, there it will remain until it chooses democracy.
What about our economy ????
Shhh ........ Divert people attention
Check out France 24 English for news on the German Economy
Whataboutism.
Then watch the German language version. This channel is foreign language for foreign focus.
@@doujinflipthen that's a problem because other countries English channel also cover their own country problem.. Not only doom and gloom news about foreign countries.
Excellent episode.
Very nice job overall. A few significant omissions: Why no mention of simultaneous support of Russia's aggression against Ukraine with serious bullying its neighbors? Also, why not emphasize fear by businesses of losing all their assets similar to what happened in Russia? Finally, stability of the supply chain is a huge concern after the lockdowns in China made businesses invested in China suffer. Diversification of supply overcame lowest cost sourcing as the most important consideration. There are huge imbalances in China due to property, local government and banking problems and there is no free discussion so who will tell the emperor the truth so that these imbalances have a chance of correction.
The Coming Collapse of China, edition 2024. Author: DW
Season 24.
attractive topic
The original Chinese Empire lasted for 5000 years, the Roman Empire lasted for 2000 years, the British Empire Lasted for 300 years, the American Empire lasted for 100 years, the new Chinese Empire has so far lasted for about 30 years. Am I seeing a pattern here?
China's new airplane - ah 85% of that plane and 100% of the tech that keeps that plane in the air is Western technology licensed from US and EU companies. I think they make the fuselage.
Why do you need to lie so much? 60% of the plane is domestic which is higher than American components in a 737. And China is working hard to raise that 60% number.
@@k.k.c8670 would like that source for non-American components in a 737, assuming you mean manufacturing and not design? And even then, near all of the modern 737 is manufactured in the US, with some interior stuff partially manufactured in the EU (often for customizations that European airlines request/require).
Regarding the Chinese plane, 40% components, mostly the more complex ones, are imported (as reported by Chinese state media), and most of the rest of the suppliers are foreign backed / licensing western companies' tech.
It's really not easy to build modern engines etc., a lot of patents exist already, and the tech is very mature, basically there are only a handful of countries that can build modern jet engines (US, Russia (who licenses their engine to China), France, UK, Sweden, Germany, and Italy). China already has some "basic" jet engine tech, having spent over a hundred billion dollars on R&D, and the J-20 will probably be the first with home grown engines, but I will bet that they break patents held by others and cannot be used in commercial airliners.
EDIT:
"In a 2020 analysis, CSIS estimated that approximately 90% of the C919’s main or large-scale component suppliers were from North America and Europe, with only 10% coming from China and other countries in Asia. Yusof cited a similar estimate. "
@@k.k.c8670 Let's see you provide evidence that less than 60% of the 737 is made in America.
Sorry, I mean 90%. "In a 2020 analysis, CSIS estimated that approximately 90% of the C919’s main or large-scale component suppliers were from North America and Europe, with only 10% coming from China and other countries in Asia. Yusof cited a similar estimate." Who's the liar now?@@k.k.c8670
I doubt China will get much higher than what it currently has. Without the chips that it has been blocked from receiving, it won't be getting much higher. Aviation is an incredibly difficult business and the lead the foreign manufacturers have is so great, it's kind of a dumb pursuit. Who's going to buy a Chinese plane that's been in business for 10-20 years when they can go with companies that have been building planes and rockets for 100+ years? This was another one of Xi's dumb gambles. There are just some industries, like aviation and high-end chips that are almost impossible to get into at such a late date. Has Xi flown on the Chinese plane yet? I don't think so. It's also been grounded a few times, hasn't it?@@k.k.c8670
No company wants to come, all want to leave, splendid.
The Soviet Union industrialied quickly, last century and living standards rose . However, by the end of the 70's there was little improvement , each year . This contributed to the rise of reformers like Gorbachev.
Great reporting
Bushit
DW the past: CCP control everything.
DW today: CCP not able to control ppl's spending.
People always find ways, cpc restrited gaming kids used parents id´s, great firewall just use a vpn, cpc doesnt want you to sell housing for undervalued just use gold bar as payment ect ect
During the seventy years since its founding, China has trained engineers equivalent to the total population of Germany
So, where is the BRICS currency?
Foreign investment is losing ground in China.
China has a surplus of hard currency reserve, probably more than any country in the world. Why FDI will be the main deciding factor in their future prospect as far as they can keep their competitiveness?
Because they'd also be spending it just as fast. China's capital controls means its main value globally lies in being able to liquidate into USD or EUR even more worthless currencies like Argentine Pesos -- CNY itself isn't widely trusted to hold its value and be worthy to collect.
the western media is trying to summon the investers to pull out of China, actually Chinese govt is not concerned about that, China now is not that much depended on FDI TBH, if you dont invest, then Chinese capitals will share the growth, as long as the production efficiency remains high, cost of manufacture is relatively low, i say China will continue to have trade surplus and gradually become richer, with or without foriegn investment. so im not sure DW has positive or negative influence to investers at the end of the day.
China also has the highest gross debt of any country in the world, having overtaken the US.
@@theonlycaulfield usa is under chinese debt
@@jacksmith-mu3ee Less than 10% of US government debt in the form of treasury securities are held by China.
Xi also doesn't want a internal consumption driven economy. Since that would increase wealth and increase the Chinese middle class or as Xi calls it 'weakness'. This makes the Chinese population more difficult to control and so Xi is more comfortable with China staying or become increasing poor than risk any loss of control.
Mao said that socialism should not be shared poverty.
@@sandponics I agree with this quote. Maybe Xi should follow it.
Yes, he does, but you can not develop an internal economy in the face of hardcore supply side economics.
😂😂 you guys talk about chairman Xi as if you know t
Him so well😂😂 good luck
Property crash, bank crisis, debt crisis, massive unemployment, closure and movement of industries out of Chin and yet economy is growing at 5%! That is a data Houdini !
1926 = 2029. History does not repeat, although it does rhyme.
Very good program. The importance of lidership to generate trust and hope with less control.
Already forgot what Xi had done to Jack ma and his BABA company ?
Add Tencent to the list. CCP has killed growth & wealth of big companies in China for many years in order to maintain a tight grip on power.
Increased authoritarism is always a bad sign, BUT on the flip side, lack of government regulatons can lead to what we have here in the West, where social media companies perhaps have become more influential than the governments themselves, in either subtle or obvious ways. The West (esp in America) is being dominated by these tech monopolies right now, and we are either blind to or completely ignoring it lol.
That's it! I'm hereby subscribe to Your channel. DW is the best regarding information on a global scale. Chapeaux!
Any heads up on where the German economy is headed?
The constant push for growth. Surely a nice steadiness is an option
There has to be a “constant infinite growth” when the money that the system is made of, is constantly being debauched, debased, and devalued.
Here in the country that I live in, that is signified by the $35 Trillion National Debt… heading to what? Headed straight for Infinity. How much National Debt should there be? Debt is not wealth. The National Debt should be Zero.
I highly recommend you look into precisely what happened to the Gold Standard and exactly how it was “removed” in the U.S.
It will be interesting for me to see if CZcams removes my post. When I have posted the facts about what happened to the Gold Standard, I’m used to seeing my post completely disappear, with no explanation of why. Here, I have not posted what happened to it. But I am wondering if it will be removed for simply talking about the “Gold Standard”.
This is German state media. Extremely neoliberal, constaly paddling worldwide billionaire interests. GDP is the only measure they are interested in. So what did you expect.
The thing about growth is that it is always accompanied by decline and that is not something to be feared or fought against.
Show me one example in the natural world where something only grows and never dies, decay is simply the one side of the coin, growth being the other. The sooner we acknowledge and accept that the less unrealistic expectations we will have about our economy's in general.
@@jameslong9921 So, you don’t fear contraction in the economy? What about what is called ‘deflation’ in the monetary system? It appears to me that most all the people “in charge” of the monetary system talk about deflation as if it is the BOoGeYMaN. We can’t be having that! People will lose their jobs and there will be a recession. But it seems to me that’s what we had during the “Financial Crisis” of 2008/2009. Is this what happened during the Great Depression of the 1930’s?
But here is something that, during my lifetime I have only ever seen grow, and never come back down. As in, come back down to earth. The National Debt. I’m thinking that at some point, there must be a reckoning of the National Debt. There is no free lunch, the piper must be paid. But our leaders appear to treat it as if it can go to infinity.
And something that is never talked about is the fact that this Nation used to be on a Gold Standard, and… what exactly and precisely happened to that Gold Standard? It was done away with Presidential Executive Orders, and nothing else. It didn’t go through Congress and had nothing to do with the will of the people. Why didn’t Congress do anything about the removal of the money that was of the people(government does not have a monopoly on the creation and production of gold). Apparently when it comes to the Gold Standard, Congress is just a potted plant, that sits there and does absolutely nothing. Thanks Congress!/s
The reason I hammer on the Gold Standard is, Gold is not Debt. Historically it has been a representation of wealth, not the indigent. And, look what happened to it. Look what happened to our wealth! It has been and is being, turned into Debt. Gold pays the piper and extinguishes debt. But hey, that’s just me. And as I always say(or ask), “What do I know?” 😄
Well, I can say that I know what happened to the Gold Standard!
Are you a communist?
Everyday I wake up I give thanks I was born in the US and not China or some other god forsaken place.
Alot of these problems are happening in the USA. However we are already dealing with it and it's something we can handle.
1:39 It's one thing to live in a densely populated high rise. But it's quite another to be living in a densely populated high rise, amid a densely clustered mass of 40 densely populated high rises.
It looks like all of these were built without even the roads having been completed. That may be fine, as there does not appear to be any provision for parking
I am more worried of the Germany economy than of China
bot
A German is 4-5 times richer then a Chinese.
@@alloutofbubblegum7271Don't worry, that is changing very very fast.
@@DBGE001Not at all. Germany was one of the poorest countries after WW2 and their success is much greater then China's.
Then WHY are you watching a new channel that hyper focuses on Geopolitical News? Sounds dumb.
🇩🇪🇩🇪Sensacionalism at its worst 🇩🇪🇩🇪 The Enlightenment ministry at its best🇩🇪🇩🇪🇩🇪🇩🇪🇩🇪🇩🇪
Good one .
Not sure how the Banking Sector doing in China given the indebted Propert sector
I can recommend the book „why nations fail“. It provides a brilliant analytical framework why the chinese growth was ment to fail.
One month later, "Gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 5.3% in the first quarter from a year ago, according to the National Bureau of Statistics on Tuesday. That beat the estimate of 4.6% growth from a Reuters poll of economists. It also marked an acceleration from the 5.2% growth in the previous three months."' (CNN)
China’s GDP isn’t like that of the rest of the world. The rest of the world has analysis and freedom. China sets a goal and the people will lie, cheat, and steal to make that goal or face repercussions. Stop comparing authoritarian economies to free economies.
China's GDP growth is now "only" 5% per annum. Sanctions have been very successful. Against France and especially against Germany.
LOL
If you had known anything about how China works, you would know that the numbers are manipulated at all levels, not only the top, and that not even the top knows the exact numbers
I enjoy watching / listening to your videos. I commute a couple of hours a day and will set up a playlist in the morning and listen to it throughout the day. When you have a foreign language speaker and just put subtitles under it, that part of the video is useless to me. I skip it. Sometimes I have time to catch it later in the evenings, but more generally, I just don't get to watch / listen to it. Dubbed over speech is a much better solution. Providing the actual foreign language does not make it more authentic. I have to trust your written translations. Please help.
Right…