Russia's Looming Serious Tank Shortage - Tank Count Using Latest Bought Satellite Imagery
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- čas přidán 5. 07. 2024
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Can you give a reason why you can't show the most recent images?
Do you have any updates on the Russian artillery numbers in storage?
For the most part.... Tanks are now obsolete on a modern battlefield, end of conversation ;p
Factor is terrible. Ridiculously overpriced and very small serving size. You can make some pretty good for the price they want you to pay for microwave dinners.
Just a note as I didn't see it mentioned. The reason the T-62Ms were in better condition than most T-72 and T-80 tanks in storage was because they were 1980s models which had only been retired in 2010. So compare that to say an older T-72 that had been sitting in a field since the early 1990s and it's easy to see why they were easier to get running.
lol You dont know anything this is some dim wit in a basement made a video
The reason the T-62's are in better shape is because they were designed in Ukraine.
@@therealmccoy7221incorrect. That's T-64. IIRC, T-62 was by Ural.
@@naksachaisaejane1982 and T80 was made in Ukraine
Why did they retire their early model T-72s before their T-62Ms?
This video isn't 'russia is losing' again, it's showing how Russia is progressing along its materiel deterioration. It doesn't mean they can't fight, it just mean the fight becomes even harder.
There are always more Chinese motorcycles and golf carts, so the fight gets softer in a way.
Russias entrire military doctrine is built around amor when they run out its game over
Any day now, year 3 and counting.
Yeah and they’ve been saying that since 2022 😂. Let me know if this ages like spoiled milk
@@pyotrbagration2438, 2.5 years, learn to count man
It's been a long 8 months, but finally, we get a recount of Russian equipment!!!
You dont know anything this is some dim wit in a basement made a video
How does a few photos of junk yards say anything? Do you ever see junk yards and worry we are running out of cars? Look at another video from "PolyMatter" 3 hours ago, "Russia is running out of people". This is coordinated propaganda, and they say the same things for 2 years.
@@michaelscott-joynt3215 the volume of cars produced outpaces their disposal positively, meaning that more cars are produced than are disposed.
We know that Russia isn't producing tanks at a rate that substitutes or outpaces their consumption. So they need to dip into the depots of tanks in order to keep their usage.
And these aren't exactly scrapyards, more like second hand car stands.
Its not propaganda Your simile between cars in a junk yard is just inappropiate.
Afew photos say a lot, especially when you know the tank scrapyards in question
You mean to say that we’re getting the exact same propaganda from 2022…
The '80%' are being stripped for parts to keep the '20%' running.
"Hangar Queens" we called them in the Army...vehicles that existed solely to be torn down for parts that are no longer being made.
Can't re-start the production lines that made the parts original, so they have to raid Museums and War Memorials...
@@pirobot668betaI thought the same about raiding museums for tanks and SP guns! Imagine seeing an ISU-152, ISU-122, or T-10 rumble into battle!
not true, its been reported that manufacture for these ancient tanks has actually been restarted, the video is just propaganda.
@@Axxel720 which isn't good enough to keep up with demand
@@Axxel720why would they restart production of ancient parts wouldnt it be a better idea to use those resources to build new tanks? I mean yeah you can give a dead horse a new hat but at the end of the day its still a dead horse
@@Axxel720doesn't make much sense to spend resources to refurbish old models that are out of production instead of the new better stuff
Something that’s very important to remember is that the Russian Federation of today is *NOT* the same as the Soviet Union.
While Russia is the official successor state to the USSR in international politics, the RF is much smaller than the Soviet Union in terms of GDP, population, and industry.
There’s also the fact that Putin and the Kremlin never expected the war to drag on for as long as it has, and therefore never believed that they would need to send as many troops and materials as they have been.
It is not even the official successor.
Do you think this comment is news to anyone?
Congrats, you have added nothing new.
@Zeptus1488
The Kremlin-worshipping Vatnik hive drones would disagree.
Seriously, you wouldn’t BELIEVE the insane drivel they spew out.
Plus. Sanctions.
this is all well and good, but what about the number of dirt bikes, golf carts and Scooby doo vans?
Comrade Putin will have you know that the numbers are rising and another TEMU order is on the way and should arrive next Monday.
Russia is still building those vans! Design hasn't changed since the 60's
And rollerskates , don't forget the combat rollerskates of the russian 93rd combined hula-hoop and yoyo division .
@@balaclavabob001 You mean the 93rd GUARDS Combined Hula-hoop and Yoyo Division. Learn some respect, good sir!
I'm waiting on the first reports of Russian Special Forces wafting across the battlefield on umbrellas, a la Mary Poppins.
We did MUCH better maintenance and much better upkeep than the russians during the 80's and 90's
PMCS was a real concept in the west , spent many many Mondays in the motorpool doing maintenance
@@StabbinJoeScarborough lol "doing maintenance" sometimes means shaming or hiding from other details
E4 mafia!
To be fair to the Sovietmilitary at the time, they were undergoing an economic collapse. They were so desperate that they tried to end the Cold War on something approaching an equal political footing with the US. They simply could not make the transition and Warsw Pact countries started defecting, followed by the collapse of the Soviet Union. The Soviets cut back on their education system in the mid 80s. Those educated then, now entering retirement, was the last well educated cadre (excluding a handful of either very intelligent or privledged individuals). And of course, when the Soviet Union collapsed, many who could leave did so, creating a Brain Drain of what was left of the well trained and educated.
Western volunteers in Ukraine say that if the cold war went hot NATO would win just from the logistics difference alone. Soviet logistics were hell, and even when corruption wasn't involved the sheer number of tanks was hard to maintain, especially by a conscript army
@@thodorisevangelakos Remove the nuclear option from both sides and it really isn't a comparison, that's why they do so much ranting and raving about their nuclear capable weaponry.
@StabbinJoeScarborough Our longterm storage procedures are also much more stringent. IIRC 48 man hours for a Bradley 72 for an Abrams.
Part of the technical data package that the MIC provides is how to mothball a system.
I don't like CZcams ad reads, but i like some companies advertisement budget financing my sattelite pictures of russian tank bases. Yay for capitalism.
Private sponsorship of some dudes accessing satellite imagery to do OSINT is pretty funny ngl
what ever You dont know anything this is some dim wit in a basement made a video
@@jacobmartin1100truly peak internet
Well it's not like there isn't a fast forward button or something 😂
Hopefully you Muppets don't have ads as well
Yeah man capitalism is a form of democracy in action. Just we vote with our attention, dollars, and time. If there is a demand - there will be a supply.
Great video now we need one on artillery and air defence systems
I'm also interested in armoured vehicles as a whole, which Russia will have to rely more heavily on if their armour is depleted.
Need to cope on more categories?
That would be incredibly difficult to track though
@@lucholaz4656 cry about it
@@napoleoncomplex2712 they got a large stock pile of shit like IFVs, BMPs, APCs and armored vehicles like thee TIGR mrap so they got plenty to go around, recently we saw some special version of the TIGR mrap with a 40mm for the VDVs
I wonder what % of tanks lost since WW2 has come from this war.
I would guess more than half.
Russia and Ukraine combined have probably lost more tanks combined than all of the tanks lost in the Middle East, and anything besides those is pretty incidental.
maybe 20% at maximum.
keep in mind the losses of the Iran-Irak war, where Iran litterally lost more than 1000 Chieftains and M60´s.
Or Desert Storm, where Irak lost a 4 digit number of armored vehicles.
Or the 3 Arab-Israeli Wars, where also quite a few tanks got lost.
interesting question
@@zhufortheimpaler4041 Russia is also close to loose 4 digit number of amored vehicles. You can see it on battlefield. Russia ran out of them. They using tanks to deliver troops
@@zhufortheimpaler4041 Lets not forget around about 2000 tanks have been destroyed in the Syrian civil war.
A T-72 modified into an IFV (maybe) was spotted at a Russian tank factory yesterday. Maybe the turretless chassis are going to be IFV's with better drone protection?
You're right. IFVs/BMPs with good protection and radio jammer in great demand right now on both sides.
Sounds reasonable to me. I saw a video the other day where the Ukrainians were showing off a captured turtle tank. They claimed the gun didn't even work on it. So if the guns on the one's your using doesn't work, who needs a turret.
@@wabbitking1355 turtle tanks are rather improvised BMPs, demining or perhaps commander's vehicles. Make sense considering amount of AT soldiers, mines and drones per square km of the frontline.
Oh that'll be a good trophy for the UA tractors for sure, right after a cheap FPV drone or dozen get a go at it
Yeah, I heard that they have modified old tanks, moved the engine to the front, created some sort of heavy troop transport.
This war has been going on for a while and we've all become a bit used to but we should remind ourselves of the insanity of all this. Russis used up almost the entire soviet inheritance in a war they thought they'd win in two weeks.
Yeah, but they did it one day at a time .. sort of like a serial gambler with bad luck, who over time loses enough money to retire off. This is what happens when Dear Leader tells himself, every morning, that the other side is about to crumble any day now - they just have to push a little harder!
When the Soviet inheritance is gone. Russian will not be a threat to anyone anymore...
There is like 1000 soviet relics they did not use... soviet were building lots of crap back then, everyone had a well paid job back then... not like today when everyone is an immigrant abroad... fuk Gorbachev like they say in russia...
@surelyyoujokemeinfailure7531
Nah, this isnt week by week deciding to continue the conflict. Once Putin made the decision to go in, its like gravity takes over, the west puts on sanctions which hurt over time, the conflict will end with Ukraine joining NATO meaning Russia cant take more land, therefore Russia believes it needs to fight until it cant to maximize the amount of land it gets. Its totally fucked because at the end of the day Russians are dying for nothing, but the logic the leaders are following is legit. Ukrainian men know their children will live better lives on the US side, horrible they are dying for it
@@dr.mortem6050 Well, yes and no. It took time to get the goods going. Even if the US president had authorized everything to be shipped on Feb 25th, it would still have taken a month to get it all organized and to Ukraine.
The first few weeks were basically fought with what Ukraine had on hand and ready. What you're correct on is that without support from NATO Ukraine would have lost long ago.
Maybe that was the first gamble where things started going wrong? After the failed quick invasion things could still have been salvaged as long as Ukraine would be left on its own, or with minimal support. Russia gambled that it would be over before NATO could interfere, or if it took longer, that NATO wouldn't interfere.
Another usage factor for T-55 vs T-62 vs T-72 is gun caliber. When Russia was facing a more serious ammunition crunch and was just starting to spin up war time production they may have pulled tanks based on available ammunition.
Thats why they took their T62s to the front. They had a great amount of 115mm in stock
@@koi_krapfen also 115 is still the main caliber in North Korea. They started to build model with 125 mm only in 2000s.
A gross generalisation but Russia has a different mentality to this than we have in the West - while we'd hold older stock in reserve for them a T-55/62 sitting rotting away is doing nothing useful, if it gets blown up on the frontlines eeking out a few more metres it has done something useful.
Same with manpower - we consider sending a 70 year old to the frontlines desperation, in Russia it is just using up a resource while it can still do something.
@@Rroff2 Mentality or now they won't have a choice soon enough, 70 yr olds with walking sticks, alongside 15 yr olds with a musket
@@m2heavyindustries378 Ukraine is also just using up their human resources. I don't trust any number presented to me. Everybody is lying in this conflict.
I know they didn't have that many tanks during the Kharkiv offensive. Just from what we see on the battlefield they are running low, for sure
don't you feel silly at regurgitating obviously false propaganda points?
@@RealKull Ah, and you are the almighty savior? Please go do your homework kid.
@@RealKulloh yes, please enlighten us with the actual statistics. Just how many tanks does the Russian army have, O wise one? Ukraine is just days away from total collapse right?
Many Russian tanks are being used just as artillery, because of fear of hundreds of thousands of mines, which Ukrainians move about, every chance that they get!😅 🩵🇵🇱💙🇫🇮🚀💥
Right now is definitely too soon, RAND was putting an estimate at late 2025. This could simply be a temporary logistic struggle.
Certainly if Ukraine obtained what it needed to heighten that loss we would see this a lot sooner.
Out of curiosity, why can't some of the sat images be shown? Was it something the company you bought from said?
Probably satellite company don't want their fresh and more valuable data published yet.
Russians wrote messages on the roofs to demonetize the video.
So people buy the footage instead of copy pasting it.
He said they can't be showed publicly. That's a very reasonable limitation on part of the imaging company.
cos they sell those and they can't be "shared for free"
They’re not only loosing tanks they’re loosing “tankers” too the best tank crews are already gone…
Not like Russia ever had good crews to begin with. Russian tankers always had life expectancies comparable to those of rodents at best, insects more likely. That's why they never got any aces in any of the prior wars.
@@thespanishinquisition4078 en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dmitry_Lavrinenko nah mate youre just brainwashed , hell Kolobanov alone killed 38 tanks in aa single combat.....
@@thespanishinquisition4078actually it's other way around, every time Ukrain has shown destroyed Russian tanks it's hatches are open this means that crew survived and left the tank and don't start using Russian tanks turrets flying in space, it can happen to any tank if it's filled with explosive, instead of 22 Russians were carrying more than 50 that were scattered everywhere this caused a huge explosion. It can happen to Abrams and leopard as well, now Russias learned on their mistakes And the most thing I hate when people scream that Russia lost lots of T-90M of course they lost them, because they are using them, while western tanks aren't used so frequently as soon Ukrain started using Abrams tanks 5 were destroyed easily and then US said to not use them anymore to not make them look bad because they won't be able to sell them.
@@kamikaziking "Soviet tank ace of Ukrainian origin" That was a miss... comparable to the ones of Russian tank crews
@@thespanishinquisition4078sounds familiar. Where do i heard this before. Oh yeah Americans telling how lowly vietnamese were during Nam war. Or Koreans during Korean war. Same format, different countries. Getting old already lmao. You do be repeating that everytime you make enemy with someone. "We best, superior, them? Subs hman and lowlies at best" very nzi germany of you there just like Aryan master race and others are subs.. oh wait US is the new Nazi Germany i forgot, better facist than reds yes?
We counted them for 30 years. As satellite images got better in 90’s we saw many many tanks weren’t maintained had parts missing like hatches and barrels. Telephone poles where turret should go. It was a joke.
I think it is mothballed tank, stored on the yard for materials, and part like barrels or hatches can be taken away for active vehicle, and the tank on the yard not to be maintained for use.
Any thoughts on why nobody has thought or cared to build some sheds/pole barns out of all of the trees in Russia for these vehicles to sit in? Just four posts and a roof would go a long way in maintaining these things and preventing intelligence gathering via satellite.
@@free_at_last8141 Well the collapse of your entire system of government through decades of mismanagement and corruption usually doesn't bode well for your spare stock of equipment.
They sold a lot, they lost a lot (to said corruption) and didn't have the funds for quite a while to keep their stocks in somewhat decent shape.
I recall photos of depots that had to be of 2010 vintage. There were T-64`s hulls stacked three high, T-64`s on their sides in every stage of deterioration and scrapping. Other tanks packed so tight they could not be maintained.
Lots have been sold and scrapped during that era.
Ukraine kept the T64s as they were originally made in Kharkov
When this war began I never thought about even living to see the day Russia running low on T-72, yet here I am and the T-72 is becoming a rarer breed by the day in Russian service.
Man. Guys. This work is SO valuable.
Given that we have anecdotal reports of manpower shortages, it is also important to remember that the worse condition a tank is in, the more manpower it will take to repair it. So they could end up in a state where they have tanks that are repairable, but no manpower to fix them. Or where the shortage of tanks is driven by the lack of people to repair them and the time it takes to repair them rather than the tanks themselves. In addition if you combine the endemic fraud going on in the Russian military, you have to wonder what condition some of these harder to repair tanks would really be in after they are "fixed".
Not to mention to crew those 'tanks'... Takes time and effort to train up a crew to operate a tank, even a Soviet/Russian one.
They claim that they take everything out of tank and build it back up. So process would take about same time as long as there's spare parts and it's unclear how much they reuse what was taken from tanks, possibly they also send everything to be refurbished/upgraded.
@@Daokl But there aren't spare parts - that's the reason so many chassis are now hulks as they ahve been stripped bare for parts.
Some of the RU fanboys below state parts manufacture for the older tanks has re-started. This maybe so but doubt it is for all components on the whole family of T-series models the RU have. No economic base could support that and RU's certainly can't.
Process to completely refurbish a tank by stripping it takes TWICE as long as to build an MBT. As first it has to be completely deconstructed (one cycle of being built in reverse) then completely assembled (second cycle). Furthermore given bits are going to be bent, broken, out of alignment etc from usage and wear there has to be more extensive certification and checking as well as time taken to prepare for the rebuild (like cleaning, rust removal, paint removal etc).
As was said in the video, for the sort of vehicle now being recovered from storage this could amount to being more expensive than a fresh build! Just probably easier for the RU to get their minds and labour around than build new manufacturing plant. Because all armies do this even in peacetime. Given the life expectancy of a tank today being re-furbished then re-built to current standards is common practice.
@@ostwelt not necessarily there ain't spare parts, there are different reasons why parts were taken from stored tanks, but it makes sense to order new or refurbished parts for each hull restored, regardless of what was on it at least if there's thousand+ tanks. Plus separate contract to sort what was taken from hull and scrap, repair, upgrade depending on state and such, but thats extra stuff. That way there's little variation on cost and time for each new tank.
Not sure if twice is right word, since creating hull may take much more time and/or effort than all this paint removal stuff. A mean its a lot of quite special steel, fillers and such, workers don't get paid that much in year.
There's no word that new t80 are being made, only that factory parent corporation received order to be ready for it and they are consulting. As for parts - ofc capability is there both t80 and t72 upgrades went for years, can't really upgrade hundreds tanks with salvaged parts. Same with t55/62 - plans were there before war, as well as capability. It's unclear how much parts can be made at the same time or one can question quality of said parts, especially if production is rushed, but not only they can do tanks, they also created/upgraded some tanks production factories abroad. So there's a lot of export potential for parts to t72 and t90.
Which reports of manpower shortage, Russia seems to have a severe shortage of good sense but manpower and old equipment seems to rarely be a problem
The problem russia has is that it can't allow itself to fully run out of tanks. A large number have to be kept in reserve in case of home defense needs. So the number that can be sent to the front is even lower.
they are way to desperate to accomodate tghat now. it is win the war they are in, and not bother about the next one that they may or may not be in
Defence against who? China is already taking Russian territory in the East.
Artur said that they have already pulled all of the tanks and soldiers away from the borders of Finland and Estonia, etcetera. Turns out that they aren’t actually afraid of being invaded by a NATO country.
Who tf are they gon defend against?
@@velimirminchev1630 Well Russia did use tanks against Chechen's.
The real question is when does the loss rate reaches a point where the tanks are no longer replaced on the front line. The more important question is artillery losses since they are the keystone of Russian tactical doctrine that they have been using.
afair in February the estimate was they have 2-3 years of arty equipment left at the very least
@@dsfs17987 - it was 18 months of Self Propelled and 30 months of towed. But that was six months ago. This channel does a good look at that subject. Go back through their history and have a look.
@@dsfs17987 actually about a year given the remaining numbers and the sheer obsolescence of what remains.
A third of the remaining towed guns are 122mm guns from 1938 as an example.
Well, it has already happened. When you look at daily combat logs that Ukraine publishes, mass assaults by Russian tanks basically almost never happen anymore. During 2022, you still had a dozen tank assaults, these are few and far between these days. Been like this since the end of 2023 I'd say.
@@tonyd9394 : Yes, that's why the Russian army is fighting a WW1-style war. Massed artillery and human wave assaults costing thousands of lives.
Their BTR( military armoured personnel carriers (APCs) ) situation is far far far worse. They're using BTR 60 now and not even Romania or Bulgaria are using such old tech.
Later Edit: Russia now uses BTR-50, designed when Stalin was alive.
And Ukraine uses BTR-50 And M113, so what?
@@user-qn3xu5ee3t I don't remember Ukraine pretending to be a superpower, and Ukraine doesn't use BTR 50.
However,
"Russo-Ukraine War
In February 2023 it was reported that Russia had reactivated some BTR-50s from storage and deployed them during the Russian invasion of Ukraine.[7] In October 2023, the first example of a Russian BTR-50 being deployed in frontline combat in Ukraine appeared, with at least one BTR-50 being visually confirmed as destroyed by Ukrainian anti-tank mines northeast of Avdiivka in Donetsk Oblast during a large-scale Russian offensive against the city.[8][9][10]
As of May 2024, Russia is visually confirmed to have suffered 6 BTR-50 losses (three BTR-50s and three BTR-50s with BPU-1 turret).[11]"
Nice cope tho.
All the losses I'm tracking are BTR-80 variants. Only 2 BTR-60 variants up on Oryx, with handfuls of 50s and 70s. Every estimate I've seen suggests Russia has considerable numbers of 80s and 82As remaining. The losses have been around 1 a day throughout the war, much lower than current loss rates for all BMPs.
@@user-qn3xu5ee3t BUT NOT FOR FRONTLINE ATTACKS
@@tuehojbjerg969 yeah-yeah
For every tank, the Russians have. America has a javelin.
Lol
7:30 As always, asking for a count on pre-T55 russian tank supplies, whether in deep storage or living museums or even in Belarus.
This includes T-26, T-34, T-44, The IS-8/T-10 Heavy, IS-3's, Tank Destroyers, BT's, and any larger cold war experimental vehicles still kicking like Object 279(just restored to working order at Kablinka)
China and North Korea both have some, China was using Russian tanks until the 60s and supposedly has over a 100 T-26s at a lot in Nanjing.
Thanks for adjusting the method!
Old Tanks is no match to $200 kamikaze Drones
They put protective cages to defend against Drone attacks (the drone & explosives are more than $200 but cheep compared to tanks even older tanks)
@@CaddyJimcheap
@@CaddyJim
The cage armor is easily negated by having dual explosive grenades on the drones.
hmm let´s not talk about what happened to western tanks in ukraine....
@@apollobad1105
Ah yes, losing 25% of what's been given to you is going to offset the loss of 120% of your tank force from before the war
This war has been the best disarmament since the end of the cold war. Russia has not been weaker in 75 years.
Equipment can be replaced, what Russia has gained is an extreme amount of experience. They are the most experienced and battle hardened military in the world right now together with Ukraine.
@@Zeptus1488 That's the thing, equipment can't just be replaced that easily. The Soviet Union spent its entire existence building the stockpile that Russia has lost in Ukraine. They lost 3/4 of the stockpile meant to last them through a world war. It's literally impossible for Russia to rebuild their military. They were already struggling to produce modern equipment before the war.
@@DigitalRX2r : True - but Russia has no intention of fighting a LONG conventional world war. Any world war will quickly escalate to nuclear (within weeks or maybe even days), since Russia has no chance of winning a long conventional war against NATO.
@@Zeptus1488no they are not. Not when the entire front is almost entirely made up of 1 week training conscripts/volunteers and led by new officers with massively curtailed schooling.
All the people with LAND expereince are dead or severely wounded.
Russia is far less expereinced then most western navies and Air Forces who have been running combat operations for 20 years plus now.
@@Zeptus1488 Im not too sure about that. Most veterans who could have passed on their knowlegde and experience were send in on sui cide missions at the start of 2022. They did start to adept to drone warfare. But tactics, corruption, logistics etc. they havent seemed to have learned much.
Rust, corrosion, and missing 'legacy' components make these hulks more dangerous for the crews and the enemy. The issue is not necessarily the engines and transmissions, but the ammo loading mechanisms, breach strength and firing controls, and barrel fatigue. As quality control was an unknown concept in the soviet union, early models in particular, fire the 105 mm shells that may come from dead stockpiles with unstable propellants and faulty fuses. The thoughts: 'iron coffins' and 'death traps' come to mind. As was mentioned in the report, it may be more cost efficient to build new 'old technology' than to refurbish existing junk. If Russia is struggling with tank crew training, imagine how difficult it is to hire and train tanks mechanics who specialize on antiques.
Minor correction, it would be 100mm shells.
Making a laughable claim that Soviet vehicles used 105-mm munitions calls everything you wrote into question. That's a western and Chinese caliber.
To some extent that is what Ukraine is looking at. Its not being talked about much but a small number of engineering companies across Europe are manufacturing some of the rarer T-72 components for Ukraine. If the internet is to be believed a full set of T-72 design drawings were held by a museum and have apparently been digitized. A modernised new-build T-72 for Ukraine might be achievable if there was the will to do so.
@@Postoronniy no it doesnt! still valuabale points
hopeless You dont know anything this is some dim wit in a basement made a video
But but in war thunder Russia stronk
Ukrainian bots are in full force in the comments. UKRANIA DELENDA EST
All tanks are useless if you don’t have mission capable crews to operate them.
The Russian playbook of accuse others of the crime You're committing. @ThomasZukovic
@@ThomasZukovic Keep crying bud
@@ThomasZukoviccute , such a lovely comment, so heartwarming 😂
"The massive effort HIMARS put into this project." Lets not forget to also thank Javelin, Stugna, NLAW, 155mm, PTM-1, TM-62M, and all the other weapons that have contributed to such a worthy project!
Nice. Still, he meant a Twitter user called 'HIMARS' who helps him count the tanks
Yes, we pay for this shit war. I get it
@@noway57 I'm about as opposed to government spending as it gets, but this is one of the most efficient uses of tax dollars you'll ever find. Offload equipment we weren't using anyway, so now we don't have to maintain it any more, and we have room to build shiny new equipment, with overwhelmingly domestic labor, keeping our military hardware builders sharp and ready to go in case we get drawn into a significant conflict ourselves, while improving relations with our friends, weakening our enemies, and getting to learn from live-fire testing under combat conditions. The money that gets spent goes almost completely back into our own economy, unlike money spent on things like consumer goods, which overwhelmingly goes to China.
I mean, you can be upset about that if you want, but I have to wonder why. I'd love it if there were no conflict at all, but since there is one, why not make use of the opportunity?
Mostly Javelins.
@@don_5283 Issue is, Russia didn't choose to be our enemy. We chose to be Russias enemy unless I'm missing something.
As we say in England "Russia's all red hat and no knickers"
Hm. That tracks. So... I assume red hats are fancy or something and so you've got this fancy ass hat on, but you're butt naked defeating the entire purpose of your classy hat. Always fun to learn sayings from elsewhere.
Never heard anyone say that in my life
Doesn't matter how many tanks they have. Anti-tank weapons are taken all Russian tanks out.
Much awaited, much appreciated looking forward to excellent insights as always from you.
Did you see the video Ukraine is WINNING
Russia get those T-34's rolling DAMN IT
The worst part is ukraine now has about 10 drone and 10 atgm in stock for each one of these tanks.
You just have to follow any of the youtube tank restoration projects to know how time and manpower intensive restoration work is, not to mention the money.
Ie for most of these they are just donors for various parts, and they need new built production to get running tanks.
Thanks for updating this, the last study I saw was about 20 months back, when they went through the reserves for fightable tanks. They seemed to have a subcategory of moveable ones with other issues, and many more immobile ones. We have seen them use the second group as assault guns which pretty soon became turtle tanks, but even they've become scarce. The rubbish ones became spare parts.
I'm curious of their artillery count. When I compared your count of emptying storage artillery and compared it to Ukraine's estimations of Russian's losses, they were always very close to eachothers. Just yesterday I checked Ukraine's numbers and compared it to your February estimation of pre-war numbers, and it seems Russia has lost about 78% of artillery storage. And with current loss rates the storages would be empty at October, as Russian's loss rate have just increased past months.
If at some point Russia has lack of artillery power at front lines and Ukraine gets F-16 into the air, the situation might develop interestingly.
What has russian SAM site production been like for S-400 and S-300 and the Buk system inparticular (Radars, lauchechers and command vehichles). I am pretty sure there have been significant losses there. Are the reserves stored anywhere?
two more weeks and NATO will dissect russia ........
@@marcie1671 removing as fast as it can from Other bases. But not much of refurb,
This is my guess. October will show results for artillery. Unless NK can provide with some and it can. - For few months.
@@JMiskovskythey also can use a lot of balloons with shit. Russia had a large balloon production, North Korea produces a lot of shit, and together, they will swarm their enemies with balloons full of shit 😕
I mean theyre doing assaults on gocarts and dirtbikes without support, would they really do that if they thought they had hundreds of tanks to throw away?
Frankly, on that drone-infested battlefield I'd rather get around in a dirtbike than a tank
You can really rush behind an enemy line on a bike. Not so easy to do with a tank. It just a different tactic
@@janbo8331 so you're guaranteed to die on the first hit?
@@Nandato92 they're assaulting trenches, wtf are you talking about 'behind enemy lines' lol
@@meinnase That is very likely if the drone hits. But the bike is harder to hit. It's also harder to detect and to send a drone in time.
thank you for the update. I hope everything in your personal life has been okay.
They don't have enough parts for T-72 T-62 tanks, that is another limiting factor.
t-72s are still being made
@@Axxel720 Not true, they're only making new hulls for the T-90. Any other tank type will have to be made out of scavenged hulls.
what are you talking about You dont know anything this is some dim wit in a basement made a video
@@Retrovania99 source?
@@Axxel720 those are refurbished older tanks
To be fair, for Russia to have a ton of tanks left, that would be just a fraction of a single tank.
Finally a decent tank count. Wonder how many tanks they are building and rehabbing per year?
The British MOD gave a count awhile back. They think 100-150 with about 30 or so being new tanks. So refurbished numbers would be 70-120 main battle tanks
IISS estimated around 70 units per year. 90 Units for 2025. Some Russian sources stated around 180 units per year. Ukrainian and several pro-Ukrainian sources estimated production at 27-40 units per year.
You can be sure no one has told Putin, which is why he keeps telling them to go full press on their offensives.
tbh even if they did, is there much else he can do (from his point of view... no matter how fucked up)? It's either lose or make it look like a win for the time being
This blogger is quite correct. I live in Kharkiv.
@@hacep160 Or you know, source tanks from other countries ?
@@hacep160 Yes. There are things they could. With Trump likely to win the smartest thing they could do right now is slow roll the war and scale back their ambitions.
The longer the war goes on, the worse it gets for Russia.
You must remember that Russia does not expect its tanks to survive long
Maybe 50 hours
Based upon captured turtle tanks and crew it seems the majority of turtle tanks are non functional hulls they attach a shed over for mine clearence and cannon fodder roles. So they may have some uses for the more direlict tanks that are still ambulatory.
Yes, but even by CC's own count, most aren't ambulatory even...
My impression is that infantry fighting vehicles are the main armour of RU attacks. Any figures on those? Main battle tanks are appearing less and less frequently in the YT videos.
The IFVs are doomed in russia, almost all BMP-2s are destoyed including previously stored ones, they still have 3000 bmp-1 in storage (they need bmp-2 turret/gun, the bmp-1 one is useless) most bmp-3 are destroyed and are going full throttle regarding of bmp-3 production, also most apcs such as MT-LB are destroyed including stored one, every stored IFV and APC is being launched to the battlefield and eaten up, even btr-50/60 came back to be destroyed.
Air lifted brigades vehicules such as BMDs are being destroyed too.
The IFVs are struggling more than the tanks.
they're using BTR-60 now... that's 1959 old tech.
@@DerDop And BTR-50s
@@mohamedridabourhila9531 source?
@@zedeyejoe yeap, i've just found out.
They're ridiculous
Also they can "revive" or build new from scratch only 200-250 tanks per year. Since pu got only 1 single tank factory left working from the soviet era.
That is stil much more tanks then NATO build...
They have more than 1 factory lol
@@Howardlifts no, they do not. Russia has 1 factory that builds new tanks. Russia does have at least 3 facilities dedicated to refurbishing and upgrading old tanks. But only one production facility.
@@QwertAsdfg-ih1ow Nato doesn't lose their tanks, or any tanks at the moment. If you count ukraines armored losses, it's not near the speed russia loses theirs. Basically, doesn't matter if nato produces less, we lose less, (obviously we have sent tanks, but we can increase production if we want to, russia cant. unless they get more factories of course.)
@@Howardlifts they have 1 single factory left. Uralvagonzavod. The last one standing and that one was making 60 tanks before the war and making close to 200 today working 24/7 non stop.
Everyone should remember, you can't send 100% of everything to a regional theater, either.
When’s the next artillery video? Love your content
russian Artillery storage? Not much to report I think. Oryx numbers compared to pre war stocks hasn't shown a dramatic change. russia hasn't lost many artillery pieces. But you got some variants like 2S7 and TOS1 are a rarity.
Congrats on making it onto FARK! This video is gonna blow up and be filled with Russian bots in a few hours.
Imagine the fresh hell if China seizes Siberia while the Rodina moves more troops and materiel to the west...
Im guessing china waits US plan to implode russia to do that as china wants international approval for that move. For sure theyd like to do it, but cant afford to do that and loose all trade relations.
The Soviet Union/Russia has a single defense plan in case China attacks - nukes. Lots of nukes, liberally applied.
About as likely as Canada invading Alaska
China has no need to take Russian land. It has access, at low cost, to all the resources of the land already.
@@janbo8331 The great part about getting along with your neighbors is that, in your example, both countries benefit when Alaska does well economically by way of its resources. So, Canada doesn't need to invade Alaska. We have treaties between our countries that allow amazing economic cooperation, and we genuinely like each other's people. Russia could have had a great relationship with an up-and-coming Ukraine, acting as a bridge between east and west. Instead, he killed hundreds of thousands of civilians and hundreds of thousands more of his own people (and drove out millions who will probably never return).
China and Russia, however, are two expansionist dictatorships. One of them is going to make a move eventually.
I guess a lot of the tanks currently categorized as "poor" might join the "worst" category eventually as they are scrapped for parts. The more tanks you scrap to get the 20% up and running, the harder it gets to get any of the 80% going.
You seem to be assuming that Russia is willing to spend all their tanks in this war. With neighbours like China or NATO or even Turkey, I would wager a guess they might want to keep some. Like, maybe pretty much exactly what they have left now.
If Putin loses this war, he won’t get to see another one - he’s not gonna hold back
You might think so, but apparently not!
As much as I would like to believe so, I wouldn't count on it. With the way Putin has justified this invasion, he seems genuinely scared of NATO and sees them as an existential threat to Russia's survival with the borders the way they are. Plus he basically staked his political survival on this war being won.
I don't see them putting on the brakes...
Didn't really sound like he was making that assumption. From start till end, he was simply presenting the case that with dwindling stores of old tanks in poorer and poorer shape, Russian tank shortage will become more and more severe. At no point in this video did I hear any assertion about all of these tanks stores being used in this particular war.
oh hell yes i was waiting for such a vid
Thanks!
this work is hugely important. Keep up the updates!
Thanks for doing this work man :)
Those low quality tanks are still dangerous. Mainly to its users but others can be harmed too.
You're not wrong in that explosives fired from a barrel don't really stop being explosives if the tank is 10 or 20 years older. The reason why we care about quality of tanks is how well they support Russian troops during an assault. Poor quality or nonexistent nigh vision / thermal cameras for gunner and/or commander make for a lousy tool, especially during night time. With T-62s and T-55s the armor thickness falls rapidly. They can be penetrated even by an M72 LAW. Then you have situational awareness systems that pale in comparison to the Western weaponry. Other things to consider are low quality (if any) gun stabilizers, slow reverse speed (shoot and scoot), and crew survivability which is appalling with all Russian tanks against e.g. top down attacks.
Tetanus from sharp rusty metal is always an underestimated threat...
This explains their turtle tanks. Pulling half working tanks out of storage and put a shed on top so they can just transport soldiers or try to push through front lines.
You've done tremendous work, great insight, you are appreciated.
I was waiting for this video, thanks
find it funny, that many of these war channels, use soundtracks from the "commandoes" games from around the turn of the millenia. The song used in the background here, is the same or really simular as one of the soundtracks from Commandoes.
Thank you for doing the pentagons work for us 🙏
It's not the Pentagon's job, or yours, to count up Russian weapons and announce those numbers to the world.
The military is one thing and news is something completely different.
@@ericmaclaurin8525 oh cry me a river
@@ericmaclaurin8525 oh, cry me a river
@@ericmaclaurin8525 then who's job is it?
Mr Cabal,
Welcome back!
We have missed you!
Amazing work you put into these vids. Thnx
While I appreciate the videos on this content, I'm more interested in the other parts of this supply chain. I'll assume that many locations would keep the "best" in the hangars present, or those which are being broken down (or in this case, re-activated). Where do all the recovered vehicles go to be repaired/upgraded/refurbished? How many vehicles are in that pipeline or simply on the way to the war? What are recovery and repair rates for actual battlefield losses like for both Ukraine and Russia currently?
I understand these vehicles are not generally going from the storage yard to the front - so where are they refitted, and how many tanks/vehicles are sitting in those locations, etc? I know it's mostly questions you can't answer, but it's the context you need with this kind of info.
so at best they got 2 years left at current levels of intensity. Hopefully Ukraine can hold out by then and expand its military industrial base enough to be self reliant
At the end of Russias invasion, Ukraine will have a lot of equipment to scrap and have to decide what it wants to replace it with.
They won't.
Ukraine will have only a couple of months after Biden is kicked out
When I first heard about all those rusty abandoned tanks more than a decade ago,
I never assumed they would be using them in war ever again, even if there was a war.
I assumed they would be scrapped at some point.
Nice! Thank you very much. This one came just in time for me, to use the figures you created.
There are plenty of footage of rusted and in very poor shape BMPs being refurbished, anything can be repaires with money.
This is good stuff but I would still like to know what your estimates of new tank production are and the numbers of damaged vehicles from the front that can be repaired and brought back into service.
I heard Russia are making around 100 tanks per month. That might include refurbished tanks.
@@Surv1ve_Thrive That is what russia claims there is no evidence for it, there is some evidence for around 150-200 new per year and around 500-600 refurbished
Thank you for another excellent video!
Thanks for your great work
I saw mention in the news about an old Tank hull being repurposed into an heavy AFV. Is that something that can potentially make use of tank hulls and engines that still work, but requires less refurbishment to get ready because of the lack of a turret?
The issue with that is that you get dozens or hundreds more armored vehicles eating up the logistics of your MBTs, while not being much more survivable against anti tank weaponry. Because there is minimal space for troops built into MBT chassis, you need to build a superstructure over the tank to hold the troops. Problem is, that superstructure is almost definitely going to be relatively expedient and built out of standard rolled steel armor. You can protect the troops from artillery splinters with the steel superstructure like a BMP would, but your troop compartment is now effectively just as vulnerable as an IFV while eating up those parts. It's fine if you have no other options I guess but I think it makes more sense to cannibalize the tanks for parts rather than convert them unless there is literally no other choice
Arguably, the only ones who have done this on a large enough scale are the israelis, who have converted a good number of older T-55 and Centurion chassis into HIFVs. It's not particularly easy and requires huge amounts of rebuilding and redesign of the interior layout. It's not something you half-ass unless you just pull out the guts and weld some armored plate around the turret ring, but even that is a lot of work. You also still have to produce or overhaul engines, replace electronics, etc. You're arguable doing just as much or possibly even more work to get something that is likely to be not much more survivable than a BMP.
Great content and analysis - as always
I won't be happy until Russia starts bringing out modernized IS2s with ERA, modern optics, EW suites, etc.
As always, your videos are top informative. Keep up the good work!!!
Staggering how much money the Soviet Union and Russia have spent on tanks that become rusting hulks. No wonder so many Russians are poor.
Compared to what countries? How’s the European economy doing?
@@sherrysnyder4195 what an incredibly stupid question
@@sherrysnyder4195 Better than the russian economy. Last I checked, Europeans aren't stealing washing machines/dishwashers and have indoor plumbing.
Imagine if that poor country had used that money for building good quality housing instead for its people. The size of its GDP is almost as large as Nordic/Scandinavian countries combined. But instead of getting a good life for its people did Russia decide to spend money on building a hundred thousand tanks, tens of thousand of artillery pieces, tens of thousands of military aircrafts and getting an army of more than 150 Divisions.
And then was tonnes of money wasted on concrete statues of Lenin, luxuries for the elite, military parades, and meaningless national prestige projects.
R u s s I a is considered a wealthy nation, and worlds 4th economy when compared by GDP PPP. They are far from poor. And every country has poor people, for example for over 50% of the US population don't have $500 in emergency funds 😮
Amazing work, well done, and thank you for finally updating us on Russia's tank numbers.
I hope to see updates on Artillery systems and Armoured vehicles in the near future as well (particularly the latter).
I wonder how these shortages will translate to the frontlines. Will Russia simply concentrate them more and have fewer lines of attack with tank support, or will they simply use fewer of them across the board? And what would they replace them with? More armoured vehicles which are also rapidly depleting?
I predict that by the end of this year (2024), we should see increased signs of Russian equipment depleting on the frontlines, though not depleted yet.
They are replacing them already with motorcycles and golf carts. The number of tanks getting damaged has dropped dramatically the past month so it is likely they already are struggling to use the poor and worst conditioned tanks. There are days when there have been zero tanks destroyed and if they were there they would have been destroyed first.
@@wishingb5859 I have indeed seen those alternatives, though still in low numbers I believe. Based on the Ukrainian MoD, the number of Russian tanks destroyed is currently staying normal around 350 a month, or a dozen a day. I did notice a small drop in armoured vehicle losses though, but the last video by Covert Cabal on those numbers showed like 8900 left in storage.
Eager to see Russia run out of stuff though.
Fantastic thanks again
Sorry for asking, but there are two questions I've been trying to figure out:
1)"russian" T-62's. The russian media official excuse for getting them back into service was that a factory specialising in their refits in Far East had survived the corruption that had striken T-72 production lines over the years. The reality however is likely connected to the fact that right before that Russia started buying north korean ammo in bulk. And North Korea is main producer of T-62 nowadays. So Russia could just be buying repair kits from NK if not outright delegating the repair work. How can this be checked? Are there any particular markings on north korean engines or transmissions or other units that should be on destroyed T-62's if that were the case?
2)T-72 numbers. Russia has insane disparity between the amount of those it had claimed to be in use and the amount it had when it needed them. Where are they? Were they lost in Syria? Were they cut down and taken for parts to allow production of T-90A and other vehicles like MSTA-S back in 2000's? Were they just sold under the carpet? Or have they never existed and are result of inflated propaganda numbers cooperating with low quality intelligence reports of other countries? Again, how can this be checked? Can serial numbers on units inside T-90A tell if they were taken from T-72B?
Hopefully my comment makes sense😅
The real killer I think is that if they have lost THAT much armor the real loss is almost all of their experienced tank crews. Ukraine on the other hand is using vehicles with a focus on crew survivability which even with their vehicle losses they retain that valuable resource of highly experienced tank/IFV crews.
The majority of Russian tank destruction shows a lot of crew surviving. Most Ukrainian videos don't show the aftermath of each blowing. Full un-cut videos see most of the crew running away. Russian tank crew death tends to be lower than Ukrainian since they don't receive heavy artillery bombardment when they run from their tanks. Plus, plus the majority of Ukrainian tanks are donated old soviet tanks from the eastern European countries.
@@inisipisTV You got any proof for those massive, completely disconnected claims?
@@inisipisTV I think there's some degree of truth here, but I'd imagine the Russians lose an average of 1-1.5 troops per destroyed tank on average. Even if it's just an average of 1 death per destruction, that's thousands of tank crews killed since the war started. That's if you ignore tank crew deaths from missile strikes, dying on the way to the front, etc. I'd imagine it's around 3,000 dead tank crew men since 2022.
@@Boxghost574 He doesn't need proof. The factory where those "old soviet" tanks were made is in Kharkov. Their army ran on T-64s until the West pitched in. People forget that, until quite recently, the Ukraine was part of the CCCP.
@@ditmarvanbelle1061 No, I want proof that somehow Russians have much lower crew losses in this magical extended footage, despite using similar tanks.
This channel is so addictive 😍
Thanks a lot for your work.
Another great video👍👍👍👍
Thanks for the vid. Let's see what's the situation in 6 months
It’s interesting to see how russia will cope if the war goes on for several more years, I don’t think they can manufacture new tanks at the rates required to sustain a war of this scale
The main concern now is that people like Trump gonna do anything possible to prevent war dragging that far, saving russia
They can't. Russia is, according to plethora of Western sources, able to build anywhere from 20 to 30 brand new tanks a month (exclusively a variant of the T-90), with another 100 to 150 refurbished (T72B3 upgrades for older T72's and whatnot, hulls brought in from Siberia that have rusted there for 30 years etc.). Problem for them is, they lose that amount in a week on the front right now.
@@happyotter9 Russia won't do peace. They'll make Trump mad and he'll go overboard helping Ukraine.
@@tonyd9394 They will send in soldiers on motorcycles.
@@tonyd9394 But what people miss:
1. not every missed tank are missed permanently
2. Russia loses exactly as many vehicles as they can allow themselves.
If Russia was afraid of losing tanks they would simply wont use them, that is not the case, tanks are extensevely used all around the front because they simply plug the gap replacing by themselves whole platoon worth of heavily armed troops on APCs. And since there much less Russian soldiers on the contact line than Ukranians - that is best trade off
Thanks Covert for your excellent and original hard work.
Nice work guys, THANKS
Surely a better use for the "poor/worst" tanks is to modify them as an afv a la Kangaroo? Cannibalise etc
that's... not really feasible. They're stored purely for their parts, so they will get cannibalized. But managing to turn one of those into an afv would actually require to cannibalize another, so at that point you might as well cannibalize the gun too. Guns are fairly low-maintenance. Its the engines and suspensions that break, if anything Russia likely has an excess of tank guns compared to all the other parts they need.
Some of them are. A lot are sent as remote demining machines into the front. That's what we usually see in Western Media.
@@thespanishinquisition4078 There was video of new APC in russia. Based on T 72. Maybe spare part sitatio improved.
It's always been like that, even since the Soviet days. They have 500 tanks ... but just how many are working? Details, details
"In normal times they might just be scrapped."
Even scrapping costs money and may require facilities modern Russia might not have (steel recovery furnaces). It is possible some of those worse condition tanks are scrap, but it wasn't economical to recover the material in them.
thank you for this verry important information. Greetings from the Netherland, text to Germany
Totally unrelated, but the IS-3 is a beautiful beast of war 🥵
7:20 we can see that by 2025, Russia will probably use mostly T62 and T72, which means that they will have problems, BIG PROBLEMS with the logistics
i remember everyone was shouting they'd lose because of their logistics two years ago...
@@zx3215I mean they have
Why would they? The simpler the tank is the simpler the manufacturing and the maintenance. I cannot see anything what would make them not to start to build tanks on a higher scale.
@@TenylegMinekez-uc7co Because presumably a larger stockpile exists of warehoused 72 parts than the variants that were retired earlier. A wooden sailing ship is simpler to manufacture than a jet fighter, but Lockheed couldn't build you a wooden sailing ship.
@@zx3215 Which they did and that's why they had to retreat from the entire north of Ukraine and leave their vehicles behind.
Jsut to think from the sheer volume of tanks alone the Soviet Union in the late 1980's was a military monster that would of been near unstoppable without tactical nuclear weapons.
One of those periods that inspires military history/gaming enthusiast's for the whole "what if".
Thanks CC.