2018 Jan 17 - Where is Amelia Earhart (HD Upload)
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- čas přidán 26. 07. 2024
- George Anderson, ESEP and Gundars Osvalds, ESEP ask Where is Amelia Earhart? The application of systems engineering processes to the problem of locating Earhart's end of flight. They evaluated many of the search scenarios developed to locate Earhart's airplane. They researched and developed opinions on the plausibility of each.
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Interesting subject, but I think a different speaker is needed.....
Why would we think they would take a raft they couldn't use?
I have analyzed their. Preparation for flight and discovered numerous errors and omitions in the navigation and communication portion of their flight based upon what was available in 1937
Predicted
earhart aircraft location
0 deg 10 min north
175.55 west
50 miles east from howland island
40 miles east of baker island
actual sonar image of earhart plane
100 miles offhowland island
I wish this guy had a class in public speaking before giving this lecture. He isn't projecting, he just sounds like he's muttering rambling thoughts to himself.
He’s old AF man give him a break
I suggest you look at Josph Leroy lodridge video a former navigater said it was a southeast landing from Holland in the ocean.
if its true that radio distress calls were heard for days after, then there is no way she went into the sea. Why don't they simply triangulate the radio messages.
They did. Much later. Centered on Niku...
Pan Am had listening stations in the Pacific that used triangulation to track the location of civilian flights. They triangulated her signals to Gardner Island.
@@coryhoggatt7691 Thanks for that!
@@coryhoggatt7691No they did not. For several reasons that’s not possible due to physics.
@@scottgh8285 they did. They translated them towards Gardner Island.
Never said anything about a half hour of fuel. All she said was that it was running low.
@JJohnJohn right. And absolutely nobody really knows how close she actually was to Howland. If she was south, and turned South, thinking she was going to see Howland, she might have actually seen Gardner. That's why her signals got weaker until they were lost possibly. Also, before they took off, they were arguing the night before. And I think I heard it was about Fred's drinking. It is entirely possible the the navigtor doze off for awhile during the flight, in the night. And perhaps woke up nor knowing where the heck they were.
I am amazed that when Earhart realized she was in trouble, she didn't transmit detailed descriptions of their status and what they were doing, such as executing a search pattern. The transmissions might have enabled Howland to home on the signal, and other information Earhart could have given would also have helped. Pilots generally know to transmit to the bitter end, if it comes to that.
The biggest problem I have with the piece of aluminum they found is it is supposed to be a patch over where a window was on the plane. If I am putting a patch over an area where a window was I would only drill and rivet around the edge of the patch where the window was. The piece of aluminum they found shows rivet holes all over it. Makes no sense to put rivets where there would be no framing to rivet to.
Excellent point .
@@bertcochran1770 Thank you. You would think those folks are a lot smarter then I and would know that piece of Aluminum never covered where a window once was.
Could it be possible that a stringer was installed across the window opening, perhaps connecting to stringers on either side, for structural support?
@@jason60chev Very possible, I was going by their phrase-----"A patch was put where a window once was'------If I was describing the work and I knew extra support was added, I would say-----"the area where a window once was was rebuilt". I agree that wording comes down to whoever is describing it though. Also, if you look closely at the (so called patch) it has "holes for rivets" all over it as I stated above. That's more then you would expect even if a stringer or two was added for support. I did not work on planes but I did body work on cars, trucks, trailers, motor homes, etc. for 17 years, I never added more rivets/fasteners then necessary making more work for myself and not needed.
The aluminum piece of scrap has been matched to a C-47, you can find photos of the comparison and there is no doubt as far as I'm concerned.
no avatar would ditch a plane in the ocean when she had a over 100 gallon reserve with all the different atolls around she would have landed on one before ditching in the ocean
Where did they find this guy......sheesh.
Complete loser. His buddy is not much better.
My guess is they were very close and ended up flying further away and ran out of fuel and did not survive the ditching. The aircraft sank pretty much intact.
Hi Ray, she "excitedly said into the radio to the ship---"we are on a heading of 157-337 flying North and South" "WAIT"! That is the last transmission. Fred had figured they were North of Howland Island. What Fred then had her doing is what's called a ladder search. On her last turn heading South (others have proved) she would have flown right over Howland Island but ran out of gas B 4 reaching it. She was killed on impact with water or drowned shortly after. Test's showed later by Lockheed that plane would have sunk in minutes.
@@tomtransport thankyou for the additional information. I am surprised that dedicated underwater searches have not taken place.
@@raymorley8241 They have, one group spent 4 million and found nothing. I'm not sure what they based their search on or where exactly they looked. ME? I would search on a line of 157-337 ,10 to 50 miles North of Howland Island. I think 3 million would be plenty with my son as pilot , some deep dive stuff and a few volunteers besides myself. Oh, and a ship of course.
Yep. I think a combination of wind and low visibility threw them off course and the plane is nearly intact at about 6,000 meters. Some sonar searches will be able to find a distorted outline of the unique aircraft.
@@PugFaceMusic could be, but where to look?
So 12 US Gallons of fuel left after Howland..so is that about 45 minutes of flying time ?
At 1,000 feet, she is using as much gas as possible even if leaned to the maximum. Altitude is always your friend for endurance and the fastest true air speed. Only if battling a headwind at alt that is better at sea-level would this not he true.
fact military paid for her repair and financed her last trip and built her a landing strip on howland island
The Electra would float. It carried 1,092 gallons of fuel. The tankage would displace at least 1,092 gallons of water at 8 pounds/gallon or 8,736. At the time of the crash the Electra weighed around 7,000 pounds, 8,736 is greater than 7,000 so it would float probably indefinitely.
For the life of me, I cannot understand why colored flares were not being sent up when the radio signals were strong. Clouds reflecting on the ocean surface make seeing the island virtually impossible, but flares would have stood out. That and not maintaining the RDF equipment just baffles me. Very disappointing behavior on part of the Itasca crew. Still, the Itasca was AE's only hope of rescue, so the thought that she intentionally left that area without messaging her intentions seems silly. Even Sully said twice that he would be in the Hudson.
Amelia was by no means an amazing pilot or planner. She was good, yes, but Miller didn't plan the entire second trip, GP took responsibility, and while good he wasn't Miller. Her demise was caused by a few oversights in planning, a general rushed outlook on the flight, Amelia's general aloofness about learning the radio, Noonan's inability to read Morse code, and just the times she flew in. Sort of like the Titanic, Amelia's accident led to more safety standardization in the aircraft industry. Her flight was doomed from the beginning. She probably would've disappeared much earlier if she didn't crash at Luke Field.
Itasca did put out black smoke. But good point.
I was thinking the same thing
More stops should have been planned where she made a refuel landing around the time she had a half tank and with more stops there would have been less of a chance to get lost and the world was going nowhere she should have not rushed to get the flight going and she should have not flown with less then 4 pilots in the plane she could have slept a few hours and not been sleep deprived causing her to possibly make bad decisions that doomed her and Fred and the plane she should have not left half her equipment in Hawaii either they had planned for her to have that equipment she ; left in Hawaii for very good reasons
For the life of me, I cannot understand why she planned on flying across the largest body of water on Earth in a land-based airplane. Most of her trip around the world was over water, Why the hell didn't she use a plane that was a seaplane (float plane) , there were plenty of the type in 1930s. She then at least could have landed in the sea and been a boat at that point.
She is located Zero degrees 10 minutes north 17555 west 40 miles south of Howlland.
40 miles south of Howland is Baker Island.
Notice that you can hardly see his lips move when he talks. He could have held a ventriloquist dummy and let the dummy give the lecture.
Also she seems awfully calm for someone ready to run out of gas and crash I wonder why she didn't put Noonan on the radio to try to arrange a area of the ocean to land and arrange for other planes and boats to be in her general area when she ran out of gas she should of known hours before she ran out of gas and had Noonan on the radio trying to arrange for ships and other planes to be in the area when she had to go down on the ocean when her gas was about to run out im shocked that she didn't start making emergency plans hours before she ran out usually a pi;ot who is extremely used to their plane knows [practically how long their gas will ;at to the exact mile
Problem is that Noonan was in the back behind the gas tanks, and he had his hand full with trying to find the island.
The whole problem is that once they missed their target using celestial navigation and dead reckoning there is no way of knowing where you are or how much you missed with.
Not a worst place to go down. Even if she made it to an Island, it would have been hell in that heat.
You could swim in the lagoon- fairly safe to cool off! It would have been lonely without Noonan?
And the there's the crabs. Not sure which is better, drowning or suffering in the heat, starving and being attacked by giant coconut crabs.
Fred Noonan was very familiar with Howland and Gardner isl, in fact all island in the south pacific right down to New Zealand.
As prior to the Earhart flight Fred was contracted by PAN AM to assist them with a route down the pacific to New Zealand as a commercial venture.So we need to put to bed that Fred would be in any way grouping across the Pacific Ocean as he had flown it and mapped the weigh points. This tells up that Earhart had no intention of flying to Howland or Gardner at all. They went to Sapian. However there is a wrecked Lockheed twin same as Earhart's crashed in the right hand side of PNG close to the coast in heavy bush.Exactly the same model as Earhart's. An Australian Bomber pilot found it during WW2. He took an engine Id tag of one engine and it is the same serial number as Earhart Port engine.He is at present setting up another trip to the area. Here is a very profession person with a very unique wreck and a man with a great deal of experience.
Can you please source any of this information? This would be an amazing lead.
How do you account for her on the radio saying to the ship waiting for her-------"we must be right over you but cannot see you" So loud and clear the ship radio operator went out on deck to see if he could see the plane??!? No way she was in Saipan. I also doubt, if she knew she was right over, close, near to Howland Island, the island that should be right below where she is, she would decide to fly off, looking for some other Island she has no idea where it is at all. The plane is right at the bottom of the ocean before, right past or right below Howland Island.
Station Manager--You know because of "history" what happened or did not happen and have the luxury of hindsight. Remember this all is happening in real time 1937. In an attempt to cover up her gone missing in 1937 and captured by the Japanese for spying, Roosevelt has the ship radio operator go out on a limb, lie, and says he heard her so loud and clear he went on deck looking for the plane. He and Roosevelt would have no way of knowing the Japanese would not parade her before the newsreels as a spy later in 1937/38/39/40 as the Soviets did with the U 2 pilot Gary Powers. Roosevelt would have lost in 1940 and he would have known that. Yeah, the Japanese never did that so you and others have this theory. BTW, the picture of a women and a man on a pier in Japanese hands was debunked long ago. Photo was found in a book in print 1935. Two years before they vanished in 1937.
@@tomtransport Yes, because everything is a cover up and everything told to us by others is wrong.
@@oceankim8791 Kim, you say that but offer no explanation why you think everyone is lying and or covering up. Can you tell me what proof you have? In my explanation I point out why Roosevelt would not risk an election coming up in 1940 by lying in 1937. Lets say Roosevelt asked her to spy and she is captured by the Japanese. Roosevelt can not see the future and in 1937 he would have no way of knowing what the Japanese were going to do with her propaganda wise. He would have been caught in a huge cover up if the Japanese put her before newsreel cameras after he dug his grave by lying. I also think if they had her on spying that is exactly what they would have done in 1937/38 and Roosevelt would surely knew that. Therefore I conclude the Japanese never had her captured for spying or anything else. I believe her plane ran out of fuel looking for Howland Island and it's near that Island today on the bottom of the ocean.
Also, he is putting a lot of stock in what she said. How does anyone know that they actually did get back on course? Maybe they never really did. Maybe unknowingly, they still were off course to the south. We will never know. He could be entirely right. But then maybe not.
You people are acting like those who wouldn't listen to the Inuit accounts of where the Franklin Expedition sgips were, then they were found exactly where the inuit said they were.
Need to look north east.
Never heard that shesaid out of fuel only low ion fuel,
The thing to remember Sue, is she was trying (by this time) to find where she was headed--Howland Island---She even states on the radio---"We must be right over you but cannot see you". I doubt, if she knew she was right over, close, near to Howland Island, the island that should be right below where she is, she would decide to fly off, looking for some other Island she has no idea where it is at all. There are no gas stations in the sky, she "eventually" ran out of fuel. She is at the bottom of the ocean right before, right after, right below, right above Howland island. If I had the money that is where I would look for her plane.
Yep! Me too!
@@tomtransport I’m doing a huge comprehensive and fully animated breakdown of Amelia’s last leg of her flight. I think you’d really like it
@@GhostKing6790 That sounds great, make sure I get to see it. If you come back here and put a link I'd appreciate it.
Stupid to ask how can you find an Island you're not looking for? Simple, you happen to fly near enough to see it. Preponderance of evidence convinces me she landed on Gardner Island.
Happened to fly over an island 400 miles from the one they were looking for? Preponderance of speculation.
I would like to REALLY know what REALLY happened to Amelia Earhart and Fred Noonan
Jennifer White, she landed on the beach on the northwest corner of Nikumororo Island (was GARDNER Isl.) & Fred was injured & died first. A radio picked her up saying he was injured, & another heard her garbled distress call with an agitated mans voice in the background (probably Fred Noonan, possibly delerious). She likely died within days to weeks if they didnt get any substantial rain. There is no fresh water on the island. Her plane was likely washed out to sea over the reef by wind & tides.
@@ZRanchLady If she landed on the island you mentioned then the navy should have seen the plane multiple planes were sent to the island but seen nothing. I believe she ditched in the ocean. But you could be right. NOBODY knows we're they went down.
@@beekeeper7535 they found enough evidence on the island that it's highly likely she perished there.
@@ZRanchLady like what a jar. The bones were said to not have been her. Now that the bones are lost there saying it's her. A pocket knife isn't proof. The sheet of aluminium isn't from her plane. What proof do they have
@@beekeeper7535 The plane ran out of fuel as she searched for Howland Island that should have been right near where she was. The ship radio operator heard her so loud and clear he went on deck to look for the plane. Others would have us believe she can't see Howland so she decides to fly off looking for someplace else she has no idea where it is but maybe south??!? That makes no sense at all. She crashed into the ocean near Howland Island when she ran out of fuel looking for it. Everybody says Noonan could have found Gardner Island because he knew the area. Huh??!? If that is true, he certainly should have found Howland.
Treating her and Noonan like idiots.
Should have mentioned the standard navigation technique of using an offset course.
If I had been her I would have picked a part of the world 🌍 to go around that had more land areas the section of earth I would have picked to do my around the world trip would have been the section of the world with the most land areas just in case of engine trouble or health emergency
If they made it to Gardner and perished then Noonan is likely still buried there. By radio accounts Noonan was hurt on the landing. AE survived longer and might have buried him or at least covered him up with rocks as she probably didn't have a shovel. It's possible Noonan is still somewhere on the island, find him and you have some answers. AE the last to perish would not be buried but eaten by the crabs which would collaborate the 1940 report of a skeleton being found.
The crabs do not eat people alive only dead?
If she landed on the reef, you are assuming she could have carried Noonans dead weight ashore, possibly during surf and rising tides.
You mean "corroborate."
She died say alot of things, that is an issue also.
I heard some people say that , Amelia Earhart plane crushed in Kandrian, West New Britain Province Papua New Guinea after departing from Lae Papua New Guinea ,so why not come to Papua New Guinea do your search there,.There are some plane raggeds in the meuseum in Kimbe, PNG look like it belongs to Amelia Earhars plane,So come to Kimbe, PNG and do your search.
Why does everyone constantly totally discount Gardner Island? It is the most plausible explanation with the known evidence, radio signals, artifacts. I guess it will never be agreed to because everyone is going to search around Howland and never find anything, while the aircraft rots on the sea floor around Niko. I firmly believe that that is where she ended up.
Discounted? They’ve scoured that island for years. Terrible theory btw. A so so pilot with a so so navigator would make that long flight to Gardener? If they could find that then probably would have found Howland in the first place. Most pilots thinking they were near there destination would continue in a panic and circle to find it, not venture off hundreds of miles to an island that would be a committed crash and small chance of rescue
@chrisgage894 not if they went off course early.
It's almost as if someone is covering up something.. Foul play???
So, the Electra has an additional range of 400 miles to reach Gardner. Gardner was marked on Noonan’s map as a black dot. No coordinates listed. So they trucked off on a 400 mile flight but didn’t turn back to the Gilberts that they had flown over earlier. And have a tailwind, to boot. Yeh. Gardner is the most plausible. 🙄
@@raoulcruz4404 Do YOU, Mr. Aviation expert, KNOW EXACTLY where they were, when they headed south? Maybe it was less than 400 miles to Gardner. Sure, the Itasca had strong signals from here, but NO ONE knows exactly where she was on the 337/157 line. YOU also have NO specific/exact idea as to how much fuel she had remaining. What does, "Running low" actually mean? She never gave a quantity. Did she have a reserve? Did she lean the mixture in an effort to save fuel? You can use all the calculations that you want, but you CANNOT discount the 4-5 days of radio transmissions on HER frequency.....on which she was the only authorized aircraft to use. Gardner is on the 157 line and it makes the MOST sense and probability and benefit of the doubt, given other evidence. Oh.,...and the Navy fly by. She was dead by then, probably dehydrated from lack of water, as it's been reported that she was suffering from diarrhea. The plan already washed out to sea, by time they got there. But I am sure, Sir, that YOU, Mr. I have researched her disappearance and was actually ON the aircraft and know exactly what happened....know it all.
The Gardner Island theory is still plausible of they went off course early and had a little more fuel than they thought. If she was saving all possible electricity for the Battery, she would only have the radio on when sending distress signals. Remember, she could only send messages, not receive them. So why keep the radio on in between sending signals. Then once the battery died, they were done sending messages, and abandoned plane which was possibly being drug more and more out to sea with every tide that came in and went out.
no Gardiner island because the navy searched there 1 week after the plane dissapered. They found not sign of a plane and not earhart or noonan, how could everything have dissapeared in only ONE week, totally illogical.
@fredjensen1683 true. But they were there at High tide. In the few legitimate distress calls, Amelia said the water was knee deep. Perhaps the tide washed it into the ocean before Navy got there, and possibly they or one of them were still in it. However, since nothing is confirmed, everything is possible. But yes, it is more likely they ditched, made one or two distress calls before they sank. Where? Is anyone's guess. They obviously missed Howland Island by enough that they couldn't see it but not enough to be out of radio range. Were they North or were they South not knowing themselves, because they were lost. If they were so fa South they couldn't see Baker Island, then that makes Garland island possible, depending on how much fuel they actually had. She just said Low, not out.
@fredjensen1683 To add, I am not saying it is, just that it's possible. My own opinion, now that they may have found the plane 3 miles down in an area where it sorta should be if they were on course but just missed Howland.. is that IF that's it, she knew they were hopelessly lost, almost out of fuel, so she got down as low and as slow as possible and ditched it in the ocean. Plane floated long enough for them to send a few distress calls, then sank. The girl in Florida heard it, she said the distress calls lasted for about 2 hrs, then faded away. (I think that the signal didn't faded away. But stopped because the plane sank). They were gone when the signals stopped... and there is presidence. The plane that landed in the Hudson floated for awhile, until it started filling up with water..
@@TheFarmerfitzAnything is possible but it’s unlikely to the point where it’s impossible. Theoretically it’s possible for radio signals to bounce of the ionosphere and reach very far, but… 1. The Electra would not float for long. It’s not an Airbus. It’s a relatively small aircraft with very heavy engines. It would nose over pretty quickly and sink. This has been seen on many occasions with similar aircraft’s. As soon as you get salt water in the radio it’s gone.
2. For that radio with that antenna at that frequency to reach Florida while the aircraft is somehow not under water and a girl hearing it on a normal radio several times, is so remote that for all intents and purposes it’s impossible.
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Very bad speaker...cant understand what he is trying to say....
This man is a senior citizen not
Very sharp with a difficult American accent. Use hearing aids
His voice is ASMR 😂