Why Japan's Lost Decade Is China's Future
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- čas přidán 13. 02. 2024
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What's happening with China, well...we've seen it before.
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😂😂😂😂 Japan and China is different, and Japan rise and today is also different..
China is 1.4 billion people, and have military capabilities to fight in military.
There is social media now, unlike 1980 America easily defeat Japan by media industrial complex through propaganda, we are rely on media..
This 21st century is different..
Because of BRICS china will surpass America and become stronger.
Debt of America is 34 trillion dollars so don't dream because America soon to be fall by BRICS😂
A clairvoyant is 99% accurate & 1% Horribly wrong.
Actually Germany took third last month. Japan is now 4th
Oh no its going to be Worse ...
After All *W* *O* *R* *L* *D* F A C T O R Y
I mean, I come from Sub Saharan Africa, so if my country’s future was Japan I would not be complaining 😂
You will gain immense economic growth and then stagnate to nothing but still it’s better than sub Saharan Africa
China's future will probably be similar to Japan in terms of a stagnant economy. It differs in that Chinese people enjoy a much lower quality of life (and will see that deteriorate further) than Japanese people.
@@Nahjitwhatbecause of patents they have on parts of Chinese machines. Chinese innovations are oftenly based on Japanse inventions.
We're all from sub saharan Africans
Study the economic history of Argentina...😂
In addition to China, Japan's closest comparison is Germany, having gone over two decades without any notable innovation or fresh production, resulting in its economy hitting a dead end.
💀
Well half of Germany's issue was being reliant on Russia for energy.
Really?
@benitzers8858 France in the last 15 years maybe .
@@Anthony-db7csour issue is not sourcing the energy from there anymore as the expensive alternative sources are crippling our industries.
Today the GDP of Japan became 4th after Germany took over.
It's all over the news today, but no one is too panicked.
Some say India might be the 4th in 2025-26 and Japan will slip into 5th place,
but GDP alone won't make me want to live in India vs Japan or even other lower gdp countries.
it's all about gdp per capita for us😬
@@RitikRitik-zu4utit’s all about quality of life for me.
@@RitikRitik-zu4ut if the rich people can share wealth with the rest of us, I would agree that GDP or PPP per capita is good for the majority of citizen.
@@jonathanjacob5453 it’s all about quality of life for the majority of citizen. if you are the top dog with rich resources, while on street walk, might get hurt by many of homeless people..safety goes first..also, every citizen are more or less connected, because human are collectively living together, the harmony society concerns everyone, or at least concern the majority of people.
@@serriajohn Everyone decides what quality of life means for them. My point is GDP doesn’t say much about your quality of life.
I believe San Francisco has the highest GDP on the planet. I wouldn’t want to live there.
FYI Back in the ‘90s, I laughed when people were panicking over Japan. It’s a tiny island; noway it’s economy could surpass the US.
I'd Brazilian, currently living in Japan, If my country Future was Japan, Man I would be happy
Any country would be happy with that! Except the Chinese, the wanted to be a super power like the US. Too bad is not happening.
@@MikeAngel06nah the Chinese wouldn't care at all lol
@@MikeAngel06I am glad to see that❤❤
Guess what? You're absolutely on the track! Brazil's future is Japan! There are over 2 Million Japanese people (including descents) living in Brazil right now, even more than the United States (about 30% more). Japanese people bought a lot of cheap lands in Brazil so if Fuji mountain exploded and Japan sinks to the sea, they still can find a second home in Brazil!
I'm definitely not kidding or being sarcastic, you can search up online. This is actually happening.
Israelis used to live in Palestine, so Brazilians should be careful that history will repeat itself.
People always said that China was going to become richer than America.
I've always told people that China is just going to become Japan but bigger.
China's collapse theory can't be compiled, and now it's spreading China's recession theory.😏
10 times bigger
Yeah, just think of all the Chinese brands people are clamoring for.
Hahahahah Hahahahah Hahahahah lol
China has not even reached its full power. Give it another 25 years
Japan might have stagnated/declined in terms GDP, but their GDP per Capita has remained stable. Also recently the GDP has grown in Yen (although the yen itself has weakened against the dollar) terms and deflation seems to have ended and given way to low level inflation. All of these are relatively good signs.
how can Japan GDP per Capita remain stable when in more and more high-tech fields, Japan is surpassed by Chinese companies?
@@Emilechen Japan's GDP stalled but their population declined. So GDP per Capita stays stable over the decades.
@@Haxerous
The nominal GDP growth of Japan is not as important as the fact that Japan cannot control its own direction of development. How was Japan's semiconductor development in the 1980s and 1990s interrupted?
In the Internet wave after 2000, how many opportunities did Japan seize, or did it not dare to seize any? Which emerging industries has Japan seized?
How can a country that cannot control its own destiny talk about development in the future? It is just a parasite.
Japan only has stock bubble and no positive sign of improving high techno industry. this is very bad sign of economy, so far, I can hardly find out how Japan get out this deadend.
@@Emilechenwhat do you mean by stable bro ?
In 2 years it gois from 39K to 33k
It's almost 20% decline in 2 years
This video goes off-topic with yet another history lesson about Japan's economic miracle. We already know about this and there are loads of videos on CZcams covering this. It really needs to focus on answering the question in the video title by examining what is happening / about to happen in China now. Some of the data at the end of the video hasn't been researched/verified too well either.
Then make your own video and quit complaining.
@@stuartedwards6996 no I actually agree with him . He didn't really solidify his stance towards the end with providing speculative figures . But I don't think any country could take over usa in this century .
@@Krankenwagen571A little bit more than 100 years ago people might have said the same about Great Britain. Look at them now.
Some YT videos is not for education; full propaganda
@@keyboardmanyoutube3189 And some commenters are just CCP shills... See how that works?
Love the videos, man. Keep it up!!!
History does not repeat itself but usually spirals. China is not the same as japan. Japan only has 2 major cities, Tokyo plain and kyoto Plain. Japan work culture emphasizes seniority. The chinese dont have a seniority system and pension culture. Japan is a democracy and China is said to be a single party democracy. It has a market economy and state owned enterprise.
"single party democracy" lol. The fact that they are an authoritarian country will probably lead to more irrational decision making.
China has instead a system of deceit and corruption.
Single Party Democracy??? Do you mean One-Man, Single-Party, Communist Totalitarian Dictatorship.😅😅😅
I would swap Kyoto with Osaka as Japan’s other major city. Kyoto is just their main cultural heritage site.
China is not a single party democracy.
It’s not the same thing though. China didn’t sign anything like the Plaza Accord which indirectly led to Japan’s economic collapse.
Not the same thing indeed. But when making viral CZcams videos all you need is a good thumbnail and title. Then you make an 11 minute video regurgitating talking points from other CZcams videos.
Yeah when you listen to Americans or American economist argue they will say the Accord was not the reason for Japans lost decades
Acting like your country that was dependent on exports. Suddenly having their currency rise in relation o the USD and your export markets wiped out within 2 years was not a factor 😂😂😂
No, China didn´t sign the plazo accord true, instead they have a trade war with Us and, recently, with the EU too, its main exporting markets, which probably even worst, in the 80s nobody was thinking how to decouple from Japan, but nowadays everyone in Us and the EU want to decouple from China, all of that far worse
@@DW-op7ly Exactly. People don't seem to understand how much the Yen had to appreciate compared to the other currencies, especially the USD. IIRC, before the Plaza Accord, it was like ~250 yen for every USD. Afterwards, it was set to around ~125 yen/USD.... hence the stagnation and rise of the suddenly cheaper alternative countries for manufacturing like South Korea and China (whose currency is pegged to the USD).
Imagine a Toyota or Sony TV suddenly being 50% off.... it would pretty much destroy most North America automakers and really hinder competing technology companies.
Agree👍👍
I remember 90s in Japan but in Japan at that time they were not angry they thought it was temporary which is unlike
There is one misunderstanding: the Title "lost decade(s)" suggests, that the growth beforehand is the norm, meanwhile, due to unfortunate circumstances, we are plateauing for a while, which is not normal.
Meanwhile in reality it means that the societal structure that created this growth has reached its limit and enters now the phase of stagnation, during which structures in society (like age structure, total number of people, geopolitical environment, and cultural norms) will gradually decay until the current system collapses and is replaced by a new, better adapted one.
Yea I know right this guy just make these videos with appealing titles and talks BS so he can make money from doing advertisements. The advertisement was literally 12% of this single video (this number excludes the CZcams advertisements which are before, within, and after this video). He just list out some incomplete background story with some data that draws almost no connection to the main problem to fool everybody watching this video.
Not likely. After WWII Japan has become an American colony although in name it is independent in name. Its military, security and economy are all American controlled. China is independent. It has the size, manpower , internal market and ability to formulate its economical policies.
Japan and Europe needs to kick the US out. You guys arent needed/wanted.
Which is all turning out to be even more unwise coming from the mafia-like CPC.
All wealthy countries have this problem. All of them. Even the most robust economies will face this problem.
Not all wealthy countries are the same, some have comparable demographics but better GDP per capita to make up for it while some nations won’t be as badly affected.
North America (well Canada and the USA) seem to be able to keep growing and growing without being outpaced by the likes of China, Japan or any European country. @@andrewrogers3067
Even if that was true (it isn't), the issue is 'wealthy countries'. Japan is actually a wealthy country. China is not.
Except the US because in the end the world is a game of civilization…the US has the most resource tiles within its territory and in theory doesnt need to trade for much.
i dont know about US. it has the unusual ability to attract talented individuals in the planet. their low income migrants can easily integrate into their society within a generation or two unlike europe (y know the religion of peace type of people.)
With declining economy, best option is to be nicer to many countries as much as possible, especially with your neighbors, more friends more people to help you
Thank you for the explanation mate.
The only reason that Japan lost a decade, is they had to bent over for its master…… they are not allowed to be the most advanced country in any category;
China serves no master.
So your prediction is a false assumption.
So seemingly real estate is becoming one of the economy killer? Becoming an unproductive asset
Using terminology invading Taiwan is meant to paint very ugly image on China. In fact it is reclaiming, instead of invading. Imagine if the rezim that fled to Taiwan were still ruling china today, they would also claim Taiwan as its territory. The "invading" word is a West propaganda.
Another entry-level CZcamsr Pretending to be an economist
The facts don’t care about your Wumao feelings
A positive growth rate that sits between 3 to 5% is considered a lost decade ?
Wow, you really need to get a grip of reality man.
Right, 5% of a massive 19.4 trillion dollar economy. Almost 1 trillion added in 1 year compared to most G7 countries which are lucky to achieve 0.5% these days.
its artificial growth...plus they never publish the real results only propaganda
Not even the Chinese themselves believe in those numbers
If you believe those numbers. I am living in China now and I don’t.
He is actually saying the 3 to 5% is decent compare to several years back. He is claiming the lost decade in the future, not today. And suggesting a comparison to Japan's growth.
We often see "next Japan", but these stories completely misunderstand the huge difference between Japan and China
That China also has a huge security and military to fund, on top of the same issues of an aging workforce and real estate bubble?
@@doujinflip real estate bubble? US fixed it by printing tons of money in 2008. why cant china do that ? a weak rmb is good for china export too
Chinese population is ageing but remember China does not have universal pension system, the majority of the population in the country side do not receive pensions at all, only 60 years above get a symbolic very low aged pension equivalent nearly to nothing.
haha, funny story, China expert
You are clueless
China’s pensions is quite good compared to many countries relatively to the cost of living.
It’s far from nothing nor symbolic, also their pension age is about ten years lesser than many developed countries.
Japan is in fact US colony,China is indenpendent....US can beat Japan just one hit,and China suffer so many US sanctions and still growing quickly.
You have to read real info instead of western propaganda. China is a socialist country. In socialist country. Governments will handle everything you need. And make sure you won't be a homeless.
Average western report of china economy 😂
You don’t understand that views in the West are not a single party’s propaganda? For example, Fox News will have folks saying not to send aid to Ukraine, CNN or MSNBC will say the opposite. That’s probably a foreign concept to you. Or people like you can put anti western comments all the time without them being deleted or fear of you being locked up. That’s the difference with China. Perhaps you prefer the China system, that’s your choice.
Guy groomed in Xinjiang
China is currently going through a transitional phase. This was expected to happen.
@@rsuriyop Japan is also in a state of transition that started 30 years ago.
Average butthurt Wumao who can’t deal with the facts 🤣🤣🤣🤡🤡
Good visuals and narration 👍
This proves that everything that looks shiny is not gold.
Can you make a video about Germany? Their post WW growth is an interesting story by itself.
LOL China is Next Japan, Cihna is Next USA Welcome hello
The only thing is Japan has a higher living standard than the US, which is really all that matters.
Japan is one of the absolute best places in the world to live. There is not only one good country.
The only difference is that Japan was and still is an American client state whose economy was tied to the US. Once the colonial masters saw that their lapdog was actually about to overtake them, they started tariffing the hell out of Japanese products to slow down their economic growth. China learned from this and has dedollarized and decoupled from the US economy.😂
At least Japan knows how to make better quality products than china. You all can keep the joke😂
@@Anomize23 Whatever helps Japan cope with falling from the 2nd largest economy to 4th and probably out of the top 10 within the next 30 years lol
Japan is an amazing country. it stands alone in terms of cleanliness, safety, and overall quality of life. I really enjoyed spending a summer in China, but it was not even close to Japan. However, I still believe in the longterm future of the Chinese people. The time for central planning with the CCP is now passing. Liberty and freedom have value for quality of life too, not just new metro stations.
You assume the Chinese don’t read history and can’t learn from Japan’s mistake … like agreeing to The Plaza Accords. I’m sure the USA has tried that on China and the Chinese said no thanks. Hence the inevitable conflict. China cannot be constrained, how can over 1 billion people be constrained?
1 billion people is a burden, imagine the pressure in their retirement system in 10 year? It will be unbearable thanks to their low birth rate with no immigration. The one child policy crippled China's future.
don't forget to collect your 50 cents wumao little pinkie!!
@@blackbelt2000slava russia 😂
The bubble burst, the population fell off a cliff, the US became more assertive commercially. Those three things are true for Japan, and now China. The “how can over 1 bn people be constrained” comment sounds like a warning for the CCP, more than for the west.
@@blackbelt2000 ok now give me 50 cents
Japan has a billion people?
And it has no dictatorship party either
I guess he is comparing the high growth and debt ratio. While the population declining.
The population gap may seem like an important difference, but it's actually not that relevant in an industrialized world. Japan managed to become a scary competitor to the US itself - desipte the huge population gap. I'd argue that Japan is probably living the better of two scenarios, compared to what the future has in store for China. The far more important fact is Japan's and China's key similarity - the aging xenophobic population (i.e. no immigration to speak of to supplement the dwindling native workforce).
That billion people makes it worse. Imagine the pressure of their retirement program! The one child policy destroyed China's long term potential.
China’s billion people are still mostly menial workers that are easily replaced by automation and offshoring. The average Japanese provides more creativity and value-added.
The fact that you go through japans decline without mentioning the plaza accord tells me you know nothing about Japan and any false parallels to China. Please be more educated before making anymore videos about topics you are clueless on.
It’s wasn’t the plaza accord that cause Japan stagnation. Japan went through an assets and property bubble and population decline without a immigration policy for their workforce. Do some research before spouting nonsense. China study the Japanese playbook and did the same thing thinking they can be different, because of their 1.4 billion population.
@@LanNguyen-vd4ztthis, saying that it was “le plaza accords” as the main reason why japan’s economy hit a wall in the late 80s is a major cope
@@alanledger1858 give me a source that tell me the plaza accord was the sole reason for downfall of the Japanese economy I’m the 90s. Give me one source from one Asian economist. Give me an economist name and I will bow and kowtow you.
@@alanledger1858 I can give you 100s Asian economist not western economist, but Asian economist from Asian countries that will agreed with what I’ve just commented was the downfall of the Japanese economy in the 1990s. I can give you10 economists from Hong Kong along with 10 economists from China Mainland, and 50 economists from Japan.
@@alanledger1858 and it’s wasn’t the 80s but the 90s, get your fact straight
There is a huge difference between what happened in Japan and what is happening in China because 30 years ago Japan was highly developed country with highest living standards in the world. So at the time Japan couldnt grow their economy by boosting consumption and improving peoples living standards because they were as high as it gets. So the only way they could grow their economy was by growing their population which didnt happen. China on the other hand is still a developing economy with living standards and consumption way below developed countries. So unlike Japan, Chinas economic growth isnt dependent only on population growth but also on raising living standards and consumption. Thats why their economy still can and will grow despite the falling population. Thats actually the main reason why Chinese economy slowed down a bit because its switching from manufacturing and exports based to consumption based economy.
Also they seem to be deflating their real estate bubble and focusing on high tech manufacturing. Rapidly catching up in the field of semiconductors and EVs for example.
@@jonathanjacob5453 Yes thats true. They have very diverse and high quality economy which is still growing rapidly and that scares some folks in the west so they are trying to convince themselves that China is going to fail which is hardly going to happen.
@@user-pd6xt4yw6i After a few 100 years of Anglo Saxon dominance I guess it must seem scary to some that this era is coming to an end.
@@user-pd6xt4yw6iChina will not become the next Japan, and it is even less likely that China’s economy will surpass the United States. this is the fact.
Exactly, I can't see a situation where chinese people will just give up wanting better wages or chinese companies never paying their workers better.
The process of going from a middle income economy to a high income one has everything to do with the education level of a country and its ability to turn educated talent into high productivity workers.
Japan is not free too suppressed. China is free to do anything.
Except to support alternative government leadership or attend a non government sponsored religious service.
Nonsense that China will suffer the same fate as Japan. China is on another level and will not suffer like other countries. Did the 1998 Asian financial crisis and the 2008 financial crisis in USA affect China? No. China was a bedrock of stability both times.
People say the Austrian Business Cycle Theory is incorrect, but all these stories of booms and bust cycles involve malinvestments from credit expansion, just as the theory predicts.
austrain economics is explicitly not science by it's own admission
@@PlaystationMasterPS3 How does that have anything to do with the theory that boom and bust cycles can be caused by credit expansion leading to a boom of bad investments (usually in capital goods, like real estate construction) that than inevitably bust?
Westerners biased video is biased. What a surprise.
I’m Chinese, what he said about the economy is accurate. Adding the polluted environment and many social and political issues, things are gonna get worse before they get any better.
2 different countries, 2 different situations !
An interesting comparison of unsustainable government growth and eventual decline.
The BIG difference is Japan wasn't an authoritarian communist regime with military build-up threatening neighbours
I have been hearing this kind of prediction in the last 2 decades. Btw, time will prove you wrong.
The timing is wrong, but the trends and ultimate fate still hold.
@@doujinflip the trends is different, hence the fate will be different too.
In the first place Japanese people in that era worked very very hard for very longer hours, in almost all the sectors. Average office/factory workers start working at 08:30 knocked off at around 22:00 six day a week. Everybody was like crazy for the company and working.
There are two Chinas: the poor interior and the extremely wealthy costal cities. The costal cities will be like Japan, the rest does have a very bleak looking future
China will not same as japan lost decades. It’s size is few times more with huge market from super high end to low income markets. Their middle class population is larger than japan entire population. China is a mix system between plan economy with bunch of super states run corporations and market economy . Today China is going through a transformation from low end industrial to high end industries. Such as EV, battery & new energy like solar. As the matter of fact, these industries now becoming world leader not follower.
Sometimes a little adjusting & slow down is good for non stop growing economy. Specially comparing to the Japan . It’s currently struggling not to enter into recession or depression.
China and Japan differ greatly in governance and work culture. Also, they aren't beholden to any master and fight to the teeth with the world's police. How this channel manages to simply breakdown things and come to such a conclusion is just wild.
Exactly. Japan was and still is a US vassal state and has to do everything USA tells it to. The Plaza Accord was USA's way of telling Japan that it should know its place. Don't listen to the BS like 'China will collpase'. That'S what they want. Let them think so. No skin off China's back.
Good point, China’s culture does have anywhere near the work ethic of Japan, and of course they are infinitely more corrupt. This guy didn’t even touch on the trillions of dollars of defaulted Chinese real estate developers and local governments, which is infinitely worse than what happened to Japan during their real estate crisis
Which just raises the operational costs for China as it tries to maintain internal political stability. The problem of a shrinking productive workforce, overreliance on inefficient state-funded champions still holds true, and destruction of family wealth through real estate speculation still holds true.
I’ve reached some sort of enlightenment where I’ve seen every topic that exists on this website I think
There's really no comparison as Japan was never global mfg center of the world while China has 10x population so even if it were to shrink by half in next 50yrs it would still have economic advantage due to sheer numbers. Also, one could argue with smaller population, it would make it easier for China to become wealthier.
No doubt low birth rates, high youth unemployment are serious issues but they no more serious than what's happening in other semi-developed/developed countries that dont have luxury of mass immigration like US.
china is not a usa vassal state. It has its own ecosystem bigger by several x that of usa. Is number 1 trading partner with most countries it traded with . is self sufficient almost 100 pct with its own technology home grown . has a well educated workforce . excell and dominate in most stem ( science technology engineering and mathematics ). Smart hardworking and patriotic .
Boom. This comment wins the prize for being the most based.
I cant find a video where it says what exactly lead to Japan's real estate and stock bubble. Was it to much wealth was into real estate and stocks that people stop investing into assets because it got to expensive can somone answer this question?
now I'm waiting for the video " WHY UNITED STATES IS THE NEXT UNITED STATES " 😂
This is a global thing right now we are all having population decline
Very different culture. Will never be like Japan.
japan is china's evil twin
chinese emperor sent 500pairs of boys n girls with a eunuch to find the fountain of youth n they landed in japan -
that's why they look shanghainese n got serious polite mannerism like eunuch
Yes and no. It is still a culture heavily influenced by Confucianism, Buddhism and thousands of years of trade and intermingling.
Where did you think japanese culture came from white man?
@@jaycee_88 It certainly did not come from the modern Chinese culture of communism which purposely erased their original culture!
This video shows me the analytical level of Dom. It's stupid.
To understand why China is collapsing, we need to go back to 1993, when Beijing raised its tax on local governments to 50% from 20%. Local governments continued to be burdened with 80% of expenditures; so, Beijing allowed the local governments to control the banks.
The developers get loans from the banks to lease land from the government for 40 years. (No one owns land in China.) Then the developer “pre-sells” the condo to individual buyers to construct the condo. Then the developer takes that money and gives it back to the government to take out another loan to lease more land.
A fraction of the money goes to actually building anything. Most of the money goes to the government. So, for instance, in 2020, 60% of the money of “homeowners” went to the government. Out of $100, $48 pays the government for the land, $12 for taxes, and roughly $30 goes to construction.
About 50% of the local government’s operating budget comes from leasing land. This is an incentive for the government to raise the price of the land. In the last ten years, the price of land has increased 250%. This process has transferred debt from the local government to homeowners via individual mortgages. Mortgage debt to GDP rose from 16% in 2011 to 34% in 2021. Household debt was 5% to GDP in 2000. Now it is 62%.
This crisis affects everyone in China, both the poor and the rich. In essence, as much as 90% of bank assets are tied up in land leases and development projects serving as milk cows for local governments to pay the onerous 50% tax to Beijing - a tax they cannot pay.
Then there is the problem with the BRI. All contracts in the Belt and Road Initiative are secretive after 2015, thus undermining the financial world order. All of China's loans in the Belt and Road Initiative have "cross-default clauses": if one loan is defaulted on, all loans can be requested for immediate payment in full. And non-Chinese lenders do not know what China will do in each case, as each contract is secretive.
42% of the Belt and Road Iniative is for cheap energy extraction with the biggest clients being Russia, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE and Nigeria. These cheap energy investments take a very long time to complete and take a long time to turn a profit. The other countries, like Pakistan, and many African countries, are on the verge of collapse. China's total debt exposure in the Belt and Road Iniative is 600 Billion dollars with an average partner rated at B3 / B-. the lowest possible rating.
Japan had another miracle before WWI and WWII.
You can do one that argues Japan’s past isn’t China’s future. That will be more interesting.
China is not the new Japan, firstly because it is only at the beginning of consolidating its new technological level. Even with the beginning of the decline in birth rates, 40% of its population still lives in the countryside.
How can can it be an economic miracle if it happens to multiple countries?
I am here just read the comments, I knew the topic itself shows how ignorance the author was, the comments show that many viewers have better understanding about China and Japan than video creator. So sad, with no knowledge about the topic to talk the topic.
Japan: Dammit. We fxxked up.
China: Hold my Tsingtao piss beer.
Korea: Hold my soju.
Argentina: First time?
China is going to be so much worse. Japan and south korea are in the same boat but the difference is that they surpassed the threshold of becoming a developed nation, China has yet to do that and It is going to be even harder for them since they will be poorer and older Something that the first 2 (Japan and South korea) did.
@@shinkansenhype8694 on the contrary being developing country but with huge innovation like will be very advantage to grow, that means China will have much more ample room to grow.
Great video. Keep it up.
Thank God 😅
I been holding TIPS 😊😊😊
This is also happening in Europe for decades now, why no one is talking about it.
What are you talking about everyone is taking about it
Going to lost thirty years
What's the ceiling for economic growth?
Play stupid international relations games, win stupid financial prizes.
Yes, I am thinking the same as you described in this video. I knew that about China ten years ago, this video just confirms it. Keep up the good work, I'm following you.
Definitely you knew nothing about China.
@@aldolee3301it seems he does. You seem to be spouting false CCP propaganda
@@greg2502 we don't care whether you like us or not. If you think we are really that weak, please don't hesitate and do your utmost to conquer us.
I think you have a very limited knowledge of China. I made more money in the last 10 years investing in China. In fact, Southeast Asia was just as profitable.
I invested in USA for past 5 years and made great return, esp 2023, eventhough I am from South East Asia.. personally i don't think China economy will surpass usa for next 10 years.
The biggest issue China has that Japan didn’t is that their population is poor.
While japans GDP per capita was higher than US, nearly triple in fact and one of the highest at the time, China’s GDP per capita is one of the lowest if not lowest of the developed nations in the world. (Depending on if you consider it an developed or developing)
This means China, unlike japan will not go into stagnation but into full recession mode, with economic decline nearly every year and overall a steep negative economic growth. Something Japan hasn’t experienced.
You also need to compare the cost of living. You can’t get much in Japan despite being the average.
"into stagnation but into full recession mode, with economic decline nearly every year and overall a steep negative economic growth. Something Japan hasn’t experienced."
Did you see that in your crystal ball buddy?
@@Pestbringer89 Gordon Chang has been predicting the demise for over 20 years so none of this should be new to anyone.
japan's rural community is more stable than tokyo. japan is incomparable❤
@@ringomoko3762 housing is so cheap too!
I think you have oversee the side of economic that’s brings to the society. However japan is not China but you did point out right that politics is more important that the economic right now for the ones who hold the power and you might want to wonder why.
And it did share bit similarities with Japan however it is too naive to do comparison with these two countries
Japan aren’t communist……comparing is meaningless, as trajectory will be different
agree, Japan is declining while China is growing, that is the difference.
Why USA will always pop the bubble of its competitors? 😭
Japan is loved❤
Japan did not predict what would happen to China, Japan is living what most rich countries will experience without proper management.
It’s bound to happen
This is a very superficial, amateurish, and biased “analysis.” But that’s fine, Westerners are free to believe what they want to believe. It’s not going to change the end results.
What happened to Japan in the 80’s which lead to their lost decade in the 90’s is the result of the ‘Plaza Accord’ forced on to them by the US.
Fast forward to today’s current economic and geopolitical theatre between China/Global South and the US/West respectively. The same forces that were at play then are rearing its ugly head now.
Tariffs, sanctions, bans etc. being implemented by the US on China in an attempt to curb their economic growth.
The common denominator in Japan and China’s economic situation is one of external forces/factors in the form of the US.
The only difference this time around is, China will not be bullied and pressured to sign something akin to the Plaza Accord Japan was made to sign.
Japan didn't collapse because of "external powers", it collapsed because it had a overblown asset bubble (imagine 99 year mortgages) that eventually popped. T
Just as how China' property bubble popped with EverGrande, Country Garden etc. And of course the low birthrate won't help
We are atleast seeing signs, like the Evergrande, black rock issue.
The plaza Accord was not the reason for the lost decade, it was merely a pin that popped the asset bubble
Blaming the whole cause of bubble burst to the US is an even more superficial analysis made by you
I agree. Japans subordination to the US was a big factor and China will never do something similar.
It’s super optimistic if you simply consider Japan as China 30 years later. I’m a native Chinese and I’m planning to immigrate to Japan
Whether looking at GDP per capita or position in the industrial chain, China’s peak is far from Japan’s. Moreover, In the current recession and transition period, it will face more problems than Japan.
The Chinese government has collected too much money through land finance, and it has been proved that they have no ability to use this money to make effective investments.
China’s biggest threaten to the world is it has nuclear weapons and an unstable black box politics, which can lead China to the road of war to divert conflicts, the old facist way.
GDP is an input into the system for China. It’s a projected target given to regional territories. All their GDP numbers need to have an asterisks next to them.
Unlike Japan, China has a gigantic population and lots of natural resources. The idea that Japan was going to surpass the US was stupid because it's a tiny island with less than half the US population. Resources and population alone can lead China much farther. Also, if it ever reaches Japanese GDP per capita it will be the largest economy in the world.
So correction today Japan is the 4th largest economy in terms of Nominal GDP overtaken by Germany.
China doesn't have the industrial/technological expertise that Japan has. China has a centralized government where Japan is a democracy. Japan's economy stagnated. China's over leveraged economy will crash. The decline of China will be much rougher than that of Japan IMO.
I remember when Japan was celebrated for their ‘just in time’ manufacturing philosophy. Supposedly they were brandishing unique managerial parameters that superseded anything the US could do. Actually, later, I heard companies like Toyota had an extreme attitude. Their managers then and even later in the 2000’s, died very young. ‘DEATH BY OVERWORK’, even in their 30’s and 40’s. Dropping dead at their desks, almost no time off. Never bought a Toyota again.
China will be lucky if they end up like Japan
Naive. Why has the economic growth rate of the United States been far ahead among developed countries for the past thirty years since USSR collapsed, while other countries have had low or even declining growth rates? Don't recite scriptures, we all know that the essence of economy is a series of controls including economy, politics, military, etc. The biggest difference between China and Japan is that China is not under the control of the United States, while Japan has American troops stationed domestically. That's why the US sanctions against Japan came into effect immediately, while the trade war against China lasted for five years, with imports even higher than at the beginning of the trade war.
中国本来就不是金融立国，走实体工业路线，不能只看股市@@langzz31
@@langzz31you just made a meaningless comparison, stock market means nothing. The Chinese do not have a habit investing in stock.
lol, US sanctions against Japan? WTF are you talking about. That's WW2 era.
It was a trade dispute that blunted Japan from potentially peaking its economy over that of the US. But it would still only peak and stagnate, as fundamentally they fail to get their workforce and culture past the 1980s.
@@langzz31 I knew someone would say that. I have said that economics is a collection of controls. I wonder why some people believe that China is a communist country and also believe in the importance of stocks to China. What's even stranger to me is why some people praise Tucker's interview with Putin as breaking media propaganda and accepting all reports on China?
I'd add that Japan has better allies than China does. Japan is also known for quality products and is innovative, whereas China's reputation is the opposite.
The Japanese truly hate America. But they won't do anything because they are too afraid of China. Once China is no longer a threat, we'll see what will happen
Dunno. They make Tesla's, good local EVs and your iPhone. Japan may have been innovative once upon a time... China is said to have more STEM majors than the entire world combined.
We are far beyond toys and trinkets only made in China.
Also not sure what better allies has to do with anything either.
We are living in 2024 not 2004 !
@@blairwich1935Japan's financial sector ($4.7T) is catching up to China's ($5.7T) now.
Semiconductors are also shifting from Taiwan to Japan, as the US derisks from Taiwan because of China risk.
Tencent is China's largest corporation now and it's majority foreign owned...
iPhone manufacturing is shifting from China to India.
Also, EVs are still in 1st generation. Toyota still has a good shot with Solid State Batteries. All of the record high hybrid profits can be reinvested...still way to early to claim victory in cars.
Especially with 0% penetration in the most profitable market (US).
@@blairwich1935dunno, he talks about "reputation", what people think, now that really is. And opinion of the global community often have more sense than reality
Just found your channel. Cool content. Would love ro see one on spain, one on dark side of the EU.
Thanks
Net foreign assets and Net foreign income per capital is more important than GDP.
Watch the Ron Howard movie "Gung Ho" with Michael Keaton and Gedde Watanabe to see an insight into America's concerns about Japan "taking over."
China is new to this game; which is why they'll lose. We created this game in Europe and perfected it in Japan. At this point, they need to focus on making sure they have enough foreign money for when they collapse.
China case is totally different with japan, china has their own economy tactics that make they different from the rest of the world, like they do a lot of export because of good management in terms of procurement of goods and take advantage of a large population, so their product always have lower cost than other country product, meanwhile in population the decline was not too impactful and the government had good policies, even if china population it will going down, they are still have 1 billion population bro, so it won't affect their economy
1) Japan has every industry including even ones abandoned in the US from machine tools to IT or is holding the key technologies of each and especially the former analog & mechanics cannot be caught up with by other countries, which compose Japan's fundamentals & stableness. On the other hand, most China's technologies are copies and Japan's case isn't applicable.
2) Japan is the country of ants and has own capitals which allow it to develop such long term needed technologies as above. On the other hand, China is the one of grasshoppers and is depending on foreign capitals which demand short-sighted profit for high dividends. So, when the time that foreign currency escapes comes, it's the end.
I am Chinese, and foreign investment in China only accounts for one percent of the total economy. Exports are the area where foreign investment has the greatest impact. Foreign-invested enterprises account for 1/3 of China's exports, and half of this third are overseas Chinese companies. As for China's technological plagiarism, imitation is a means of rapid progress. This was applicable to the description of China in the past, but it is not appropriate now. China's economic aggregate is similar to that of the EU, but China's R&D investment has exceeded that of the EU in 2023. In other words, our R&D intensity is higher than that of the EU, and our patent applications rank first in the world because China has the lowest labor costs. Your current misunderstanding is simply that China has too little historical accumulation. Rest assured that all investments will yield scientific and technological results, and new energy vehicles are just the beginning.
@@AI-ih5or”foreign investment in china accounts for only 1% of economy” - right then, I knew to stop reading b/c almost everyone knows delusional Wumao lies when they see them
@@AI-ih5or As far as China doesn't make all stats open to public, it isn't believed.
@@AI-ih5or Who do you think believes China's stats? At first, you must demand your gov't to disclose all data.
@@AI-ih5or Krugman said, "China gets worse than Japan."
Still parroting that decades old narrative 😂
You must have posters of Gordon Chang plastered all over your bedroom wall. How much were you paid?
The only people who constantly talk about Gordon Chang are CCP fanboys. In the West they just report views and people have contradictory viewpoints for example Fox News versus CNN.
I will save this video and come back 10 years later to have a good laugh at this guy. That is provided google is still around after 10 years.
Raging wuamo lmao
@@user-tp2tm6fy9i You are deluding yourself that I am raging lol.
Every govt support their home grown brands..
They were not cartels but partnerships for cost reduction.
They were not selling below market price but optimizing the cost for margins and selling at cheaper cost.
If can't compete America think the other one is cheating
No, people in Japan live much better than in China. Also people have freedom in Japan, so no. The current political structure of China is the one holding it back. Imagine 600 million Chinese living at 1000 yuan a month 😢. That’s about less than 300 dollars a month. Not enough to get by especially with the cost of living these days 😢.
Bro you have absolutely no idea what you're talking about. The current political structure is EXACTLY why China is the biggest economy by PPP today and has had one of the most impressive growths ever, from one of the poorest countries in the world to lifting 800 million people out of poverty and eliminating absolute poverty in a few decades. This was all possible because they are a socialist-oriented sovereign country.
@@Krattzx dude, really? What good is living when you don’t have freedom and democracy, where every single moment you’re being monitored by the Chinese government. Where every product is of poor quality, politicians are corrupt, houses are tofu dreg. Also every foreigner is suspected of being a spy. Their stats are fake! Don’t believe their propaganda. Wake up from the Chinese kool-aid!
Took you half the video to even start to talk about China, too much filler and very little real content.
Yeah, some twenty year old western kid talking about China's doom. Right. We are going to take that seriously.