China miscounted its population, now the economy is in crisis | If You're Listening
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- čas přidán 31. 08. 2023
- China’s economy is tanking. Similar things are happening across Asia but in China it’s happening extremely fast.
It’s because of the One Child Policy, introduced over 40 years ago to drive up productivity.
Now, after years of fudging the population data, China’s real population has been revealed.
The policy might be over, but the population is going backward, the labour force is retiring, and China is in a world of trouble.
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What's really frustrating is the millions of babies that had to suffer for this policy. From the first twenty years of girls being abandoned - often in fields or trash bins, even to the very recent. My friends became pregnant in 2013 with their second child. They didn't want to abort because of their personal beliefs but faced enormous pressure to do so. They visited every single hospital in the city trying to find one that was willing to deliver the child, only finding one a few days before she was born. (And this was a city the size of NY, so it was quite a lot of hospitals.) The child then had a heart condition that a simple surgery could have fixed, but no doctors were willing to operate since it was a second child. She passed away before she even turned one. And making it all the more heartbreaking was the fact that China lifted the one child policy shortly after this to a two-child policy. My friends are still traumatized by the whole experience.
I'm sorry to hear that 😢😢 send your friend my best regards.
The truth is more sinister than what your friend experienced. People in rural areas were subject to far more than forced sterilization and early abortions, but late-term abortions without evidence of fetal abnormalities and infanticide by officials and prenatal care providers. During the 1990s, babies assigned female at birth crowded orphanages, but newly discovered evidence shows that contrary to popular belief, they were not "abandoned", but snatched by the government for not being first-born. In other words, forced adoption. The reason they were overwhelmingly afab was that their parents attempted to have them because their first child was a girl, yet subject to socioeconomic and cultural pressure from the older generation to have a male offspring, so they had more children until they had a boy, but this also means they violated the one child rule, and the non-first-born child's very existence was illegal. In most cases, the family wanted to raise the child but was not allowed. Alternative ways included: finding foster families in local communities in private that desired daughters, but few foster families could keep the child because the government found the children and separated them from foster families; or not registering the birth, so the child became "heihu" and lost all the rights as a citizen such as compulsory education, travel, housing and enployment. For those who were put into orphanages against the will of their parents and foster families, they became cash cows of international adoption, mostly to the US. That is why adoptee rights groups now call it adoption trafficking.
Because same as in Russia, these policies are not made FOR the people, but for the government. They deeply don't care about wealfare of their citizens but only looking at people as at resources. Until Chinese people won't protest effectively, nothing will change.
Damn i cant beleive people arent making more children with stories like these.
@@cfromnowhere Love how you're acting as if you know more about the situation than either I or my Chinese friends do. Are you Chinese? Have you lived in China and worked with orphans? If not, then there's little chance you know more than me or my Chinese friends. I've actually been at Chinese orphanages when girls as old as 3 were brought in because the family recently gave birth to a boy and dumped the girl. I've been there when babies were abandoned with handwritten notes explaining that they dearly loved their child, but that the child was ill and they couldn't afford the medical care needed. I've listened to Chinese families as they described some of the things they went through during this time (things you mentioned but which I guess you've only heard of through news reports and not directly from people who suffered through it.) I literally know and have for years known everything you said. However, my point in posting was to just give an example of how this policy affected children and people individually, not to write a book on the many tragedies it spawned. I don't know what your purpose in posting was, but you should consider how your words come across. My friends' personal tragedy is not lessened by the fact that other terrible things were happening. You seem to be looking at it from a big picture perspective, which has its place, but don't forget that individual stories and heartbreak make up the big picture. It's not helpful to tell someone who's grieving that their tragic story is just one of a million - they know that, but it doesn't make them hurt any less. If your point is to educate it, do it in your own post where people will be more likely to see it, not buried as a reply while using language that makes it seem like you're writing off the tragedy that happened simply because other crap happened too.
The issue isnt just that they were making apartments for now non existent future generations, its also that they were rampantly speculating, which in turn is backfiring.
They never planned to move people in in the 1st place, just a ginormous chinese sham, like the whole "chinese miracle". The government got to pump up gdp with all that. The people building got to steal all the down payments, after a cut to the party obviously. Then they got to get loans against their fancy new high rises from foreign banks and investors, again with a cut going to pooh. They were hustling the last 2 decades, all smoke and mirrors.
And yet we learn nothing.
Pumping up the GDP numbers...
It's better than European housing crisis where people don't have a place to live...😂 Jk
The Uncle Sam is forking out 500 millions USD for all and any kind of anti China stories.
So no wonder all the liars, con man, snake oil salesman are coming out of the woodwork for a piece of the pie.
To be fair, a half billion dollar budget is a pretty good offer to throw away many things.
No government in the world put aside millions of dollars to slander its competitors except US.
But one thing for sure,..the USA await its Karma sooner than it can realize.
Like a forest fire that wipes out the old trees to make room for new growth, bearish periods ultimately establish a new crop of stocks to buy and watch while setting the stage for a robust new uptrend.I have been reading articles of people that grossed profits up to $250k during this crash, what are the best stocks to buy now or put on a watchlist?
I am saving money for retirement, and I lost nearly $9,000 this week. Who is this person who is advising you?
thank you for sharing; I just looked up the broker you recommended on Google and was really impressed with her qualifications. I will immediately send her an email.
"too much housing" is a problem I wish we had over here, honestly.
That is what happens when people use housing as investments. It's a problem worldwide, even in huge Australia.
Canada is just hiding in the corner, hoping no one notices.
Most developed countries are already using migrant workers from high birth rate countries to maintain or increase their population and workforce. But these countries often lack an effective preventative plan for more race relations problems.
Any investment can be a problem if it is inflated enough even stocks.
Difference is Australia is bringing in record migrants and record international students this year to prop up the economy to avoid recession and maintain GDP growth. But it's all a ponzi scheme and individual quality of life is reduced, our cities get clogged and government infrastructure can't keep up with the influx. But least the house prices stay at record level and the politicians can say 'no recession'
@@AZ2PMdifference is Australia only bringing high educated or rich immigrants. The rest, good luck with your application.
Because of unaffordable house prices and rents, there is now a no-child policy in Australia. You can't start a family in a tent.
At current prices, the rental and housing markets have priced in double income income no kids for everyone. Don't worry though. Very soon, the multi-decade real estate ponzi shall unwind and never again recover it's heights in our lifetimes.
@@SuperSk1llzRecession is underway downunder, a big and deep one.😢
@@SuperSk1llz thanks Neo from the matrix im glad you know the truth and will save us.
*this wont happen* Australia has 4 key income sectors - Immigration/education, mining, farming, housing.
You mess with those at your peril.
That's a bit hyperbolic. Especially when the video topic is China where house debt leverage is WAY worse lol
@@dekumutant I just visited Shanghai last week, everything looks great, streets were full of tourists for summer holiday, shops were very busy with big crowds…despite of the property crisis and economic slowdown, everything still looks good…unlike in other countries the government of China is trying its best to make sure the property crisis will have less impact to its economy, policies have come out to help property buyers to extend their loan payments, interest rates have been cut down further and more rules have been implemented to make buying properties harder for the general public by increasing down payment to 20% for first homes buyers and 30% for investors or second home buyers.
I have witnessed it first hand. I lived in China, Nanjing for a few years. I visited a district in Nanjing called LiShui, the first thing I noticed was all the skyscraper apartments with almost no people around. Most apartments were just empty shells (no windows or fittings) eventhough it was built many years prior
Was in China in 2010. When in Nanning for a few days, I kept commenting on the fact that it was basically impossible to take a photo of the skyline that didn't include tower cranes. It wasn't quite the same in Guangzhou, but the amount of scaffolding covering smaller construction projects was mind-boggling.
Moscow did this decades ago. "Look how much we're building!" Only they weren't building anything. The cranes were only scenery.
Nanning is an important location in a large country. Certain Westoids wish it had no buildings instead.
The problem with population census data in China is that it is aggregated from a provincial level. Local governments are incentivised to overstate the number of children in their region so as to receive more funding. Alternative data like vaccination data suggests the number of children is highest overstated, which is true, makes China the fastest ageing country in the world. The other problem is that the largest cohort of the labour force right now are people in their 50s. Retirement age is 60 in China, so the exodus from the labour force is enormous over the next decade. The replacement population just isn’t there.
Foreign worker is the key
@@noobmeister6652 Oh! that's why they just put out Anti-foreigner law....right?
@@noobmeister6652 there is net outward migration in China and they have no meaningful immigration policy. Countries will soon compete for people, rather than the other way around. China isn’t near the top of most peoples list either. Not that they want foreigners there
@@noobmeister6652 also for a country of 1.4 (actually 1.3) billion, immigration won’t touch the sides
Economically, I've always thought one of China's strengths is they don't have to care about the feelings of their population. They don't have to provide healthcare, aged care, or pensions. But now there's this. Will China's middle class start to realise they have more power than the the CCP?
This reminds me of the saying: strict parents raise sneaky kids
My dad would carry on about everything, just made me sneaky
can confirm i am sneakyq
Rogue generation.
the phrase "spare the rod and spoil the child" is often repeated without explaining that in hebraic writing, it is written in an if-then style... thus it becomes "IF you spare the rod, THEN you will spoil the child.." (from the bible).
then it turns into the mantra "a spoiled child becomes an entitled adult"
which we surre have no shortage of today
I’m the 80s born Chinese. Inly child in my family, I grew up with good life. And I experienced the boom if the country economy last 30 years. I now have 2 children and have a good life. In a matter of fact, one child policy was not the most stupid policy in history. 100 years ago, before communism party took over, all female girls had to band feet when they were very young. At least female girls after communism party, don’t have to band feet any more. And also it’s not only Chinese women don’t want to get married and have kids any more, all world wide, most intelligent women don’t want to get married and don’t want to face kids. In hongkong, in Japan, in Singapore these GDP per capital higher than Australia areas have very low birth rate too. Low birth rate is a sign of modernization, believe or not, economy downturn or collapse is also sign of modernization.
we give birth to digital children these days
The shrinking population didn’t help, but I think there would have been a real estate bubble and ghost cities in parts of China even without the one child policy.
The system of land sale and building benefitted many players within China (local governments, companies and investors) and was thought to compose about a third of the economy. But as many of us have seen, when home prices go up quickly….more and more people will try to make money off that, and you end up with an eventual oversupply in some areas.
Not to mention the abysmal quality of the new buildings and the culture of minimal upkeep.
@@looncraz china is so funny bro their building literally tears apart like paper during heavy rain
@@akmalrusydi2730 You are watching too much of Winston Sterzel and China Insider or whatever China ..... funny thing is these guys are not in China for at least 5 years, just like Gordon Chang predicting China's collapse since 2000 we know where China's econmy is right now after 20 years.
China has a strong government based on Confucian collectivism, so the various purchase restriction policies for real estate have always been beneficial in controlling housing prices in second-tier cities (Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen are too attractive to Chinese people, and housing prices in these four cities are very high and never decrease) .
Housing prices in China's second-tier cities have remained stable without large-scale fluctuations.
As for those counties, their housing prices should collapse. Because no one wants to settle in the county.
@@postahundredcommentsbutonl4408 Well, I would say the ideal is that China has a government based on “Confucian collectivism,” but China is also a dictatorship and that typically leads to to cronyism and corruption…political appointments are based first and foremost on how loyal an official is to the dictator or dictatorship, and being competent at their jobs is a distant second consideration.
But agree that varies very much by location, with the most popular cities will likely won’t see a huge housing price drop, unlike the ghost city properties. And a drop in prices is not all bad…when housing is high it just makes it harder for young people to afford a first apartment or house, and young people on China are already working very hard and some less expensive housing would be helpful.
I’m sure this won’t affect us here in Australia, it’s not like we’ve based our whole economy off selling raw materials to china
As an American who would really like to see housing prices come down, please dump all of your materials here
@@masonm600 Just having materials wont help when zoning and similar laws(like minimum parking), building code, HOAs and rampant suing by Karen neighbors for 'ruining the characteristics of the neighbourhood' prevent effective use of land. In most places only single family housing in a whole plot and (in downtowns of cities) skyscraper are allowed to be built legally. There's no scope to legally build duplexes or other nuanced housing like maybe a 4 storey building for 8 families in a plot that would otherwise be used for 2 single family homes for example.
Land (specially in suitable locations) is limited and the value of land in good locations would always go up. Housing prices (in desirable locations with access to jobs and services) would never come down unless more compact single family homes (in smaller plots with no front yard/backyard), duplexes and other multifamily homes are made legal in lands that are taken up for traditional single family homes
@@masonm600Generally, the problem of expensive housing in the U.S. isn't because there's a lack of material; it's pre-existing owners who don't want too many high rise apartment complexes to be built that would drive down their own property prices. In other words, people are clamoring to buy a house but then they vote to not have too many more built after they get one lol.
I'm so glad the Aussies held on to the very British sarcasm we left you with. 😉
@@jamestk656 Yep. The "I'm the last one who should be allowed through the door" syndrome.
property prices in the US and Canada are through the roof, and China has so many homes they are just blowing them up? This world kind of sucks.
Property prices in china at least in cities are also trough the roof and the US also has a lot more Appartements than people to house. And yes that's messed up
Kind of sucks??!! 😅😂
The top 4 housing price to income ratio cities are all in China. Then Vancouver, BC, then SF.
I'd love to see how you would incentivize people in the US and Canada who want to buy property, to move to China to buy it.
But seriously, it is messed up and the result of speculation, and profit before people planning.
How much carbon footprint went into building them, then turning them into rubble?
No wonder building material prices are so high.
Utter madness.
Thank you for uploading and sharing.
I am aware market trends and economic indicators can influence the performance of different investment options, but I've been reading news about people who were still able to make large profits of up to $580k during this crash...... what is the most effective strategy at this time?
The strategies are quite rigorous for the regular-Joe. As a matter of fact, they are mostly successfully carried out by pros who have had a great deal of skillset/knowledge to pull such trades off.
@@ThomasHeintz wow ,that’s stirring! Do you mind connecting me to your advisor please. I desperately need one to diversified my portfolio.
You can do your research and be on the lookout for one with intelligent strategies who'll help your portfolio maintain an unwavering and a progressive growth. Laura Marie Ray is my advisor. She has the Flexibility & Expertise to Meet Your Needs. Verify her yourself
@@ThomasHeintz Thank you for this tip. it was easy to find your investment advisor. Did my due diligence on her before scheduling a phone call with her. She seems proficient considering her résumé.
The problem with authoritarian regimes is nobody dares tell the emperor he has no clothes till it’s too late.
Don't ever get inside people's bedroom - this advice to the government never fails. Every government that violated this, sooner or later fell down.
Exactly.
This made me think of a newspaper report dating back to the 80s where the Chinese had discovered several extra million people and now needed to learn where they cam from to meet its population goals. Now I think they never really existed but did get a bureaucrat into a nicer house
@@Bhgjjj No it was probably my children (I’m just that chad)
The Uncle Sam is forking out 500 millions USD for all and any kind of anti China stories.
So no wonder all the liars, con man, snake oil salesman are coming out of the woodwork for a piece of the pie.
To be fair, a half billion dollar budget is a pretty good offer to throw away many things.
No government in the world put aside millions of dollars to slander its competitors except US.
But one thing for sure,..the USA await its Karma sooner than it can realize.
The land of ever growth, of course enough children get born to replace the leeks being cut. Right... right... right?
@@Bhgjjjthat's the problem with rampant corruption and a lack of public accounting or check's and balances
Mere speculation
According to certain economists, there are projections indicating the possibility of the United States and certain parts of Europe experiencing a recession during a portion of 2023. While a global recession, which refers to a decline in annual global per capita income, is relatively uncommon due to the faster growth rates of China and emerging markets compared to developed economies, it is important to note that if economic growth lags behind population growth, the world economy is generally regarded as being in a recession.
Recession 😂 Israelistan is PHUCKED collapse is inevitable
My primary concern at the moment is finding ways to generate additional revenue during challenging economic times. I cannot afford to witness my savings diminish to nothing.
Given the current delicate economic season, it may be difficult or ineffective to take significant action on your own. Therefore, I would strongly recommend seeking the expertise of a financial professional who can offer valuable financial guidance and assistance.
Your financial advisor really seem to know this stuff. I found his web-page when I made a google search of his full names online, read through his resume, educational background and qualifications, it was really impressive. I left him a note and booked a call session with him. Thanks for the information!!
this comment is getting repetitive and flawed if china is emerging as superpower why they are in decline same with to other developing countries stop this bias
The "One Child Policy" in China was brutal to the doctors too😢.
Remember, as you watch those unfinished towers go down, the _massive carbon footprint_ of reinforced concrete (but apparently it's Australia's fault that the climate is changing).
It’s everyone’s fault and everyone’s responsibility. Why do you have a problem with this concept? It’s not like Australia didn’t almost burn down a few years ago, amirite?
I don't have a problem with proportionate responses, @@Avarren - just hyperbole, and we are fed a lot of it.
@@Avarren almost burned down a few years ago?? You mean the bushfires that Australia has every single year? Mate your ignorance is so obvious it is astounding.
Per capita emissions Australia is in the top 5, so yes everyone of us is contributing to greenhouse gas emissions and Australians are on the top.
Reinforced concreate has large carbon foot print compared to low carbon footprint building materials. This is a fact.
Australians are top 5 per capita in greenhouse gas emissions. This is also a fact.
Neither negates each other and linking them is disingenuous.
@@civicblade1 - The heat-carrying capacity of the atmosphere is proportional to CO2 concentration in PPM, and that is in turn proportional to the _billions of metric tons_ of anthropogenic emissions released into our _one, shared_ atmosphere annually. The greenhouse effect is _utterly indifferent_ to how you divide up the annual burden, "per capita" or otherwise. My _original point_ was that while while Australians hand-wring and self-flagellate over our small overall contribution to the greenhouse effect, China's "ghost cities" represent a massive, _indisputably wasteful_ and totally avoidable contribution to climate change.
Meanwhile on any given Saturday, overseas Chinese buyers buy Australian houses sending more and more locals into tents and cars. And our government turns a blind eye.
Aussies can’t buy houses in China, why is the opposite not also true?
Skill diff. How you gonna let some poor chinese outpurchase you when you are one of the richest countries in the world. Get off centrelink and get a real job
No. It is short term housing that has caused a lot of issues in last two years.
Been hearing that for 20 years.
This podcast episode was so so interesting, I'm so glad "if you're listening" is back thank you ABC🎉
The housing bubble was always going to burst. I'm just surprised it went on as long and as huge as it did.
They don't allow stocks so that was the country's wealth basically.
They have stocks and a stock exchange. But yes it was a place to store wealth, you are right. @@xaviermagnus8310
13:45 - "it was a Ponzi scheme"
This is true of the entire housing sector across most of the Western world! Artificially cheap debt being designed to keep pushing property prices up & up to sink into turning an essential need into an economic asset that doesn't produce anything!
Imagine having policies and incentives to make energy & food more expensive. That's what we've all done with housing. And they wonder why us younger people are having small families? You need two full-time incomes just to afford to have a household now. Who is looking after & raising all these children if both parents have to be employed outside the home??!
No. The housing sector in the West is designed to stiffle supply to keep profits high.
Can you provide a source for the "26 year old marriage minimum age" law? As someone who has lived in China for a decade, has a Chinese wife, and has been doing business in china for 15 years, I've never heard of this and neither has my wife.
6:17 Is an accurate depiction of my days when I work from home. 😂
If you love this, there’s a whole series of ‘If You’re Listening’ videos and a podcast!
Australia has its own property Ponzi scheme. And wait until lower iron ore revenues feed through to a significantly lower AUD. Then we will see interest rates forced higher to combat the imported inflation effects of a weak currency, regardless of how many over-leveraged borrowers get crushed. Everything is connected. For over a quarter of a century, Australian governments (both sides) have been managing a bubble, not an economy. All bubbles burst eventually.....always. Brace for impact.
Correct. What's the iron ore price going to do when the Chinese owned mines in Guinea Bissau start operating ~ 2025?
@@arffadailey8055 China won't be owning those mines, or won't be opening them in 2025.
@@petebondurant58 The CCP has it's members on the board of directors of all major companies in china . So it "the CCP" controls everything there.
If I had a penny for every time I've heard this diatribe ...
She’ll be right mate 😂😂😂this doesn’t end well
0:06 I love it when they mispronounce some Chinese, it’s a good indicator for quality of the content on China.
You never hear people talking about the parents who tragically lost their one child and couldn't have another because of the policy or because they were too old. Countless childless elderly people with no one to support them.
Great breakdown of what is happening in China.
Look at
The video Why China Is on the Brink of Its Biggest Crisis in Decades
Great propaganda*
It's A breakdown....it would be great if there were references to what the research was based on. IE reports, articles etc.
@@enterpassword3313 everything is propaganda. Pick ur side
@@vijaz5559 not really, but thanks for letting me know how you think
same happened in spain in 2008, and the department buildings where sprouting like crazy with crazy prices no one could afford,or if you could afford it, it was a ridiculous price for a small one bedroom apartment. There are ghost towns with empty apartment buildings, and the poor souls who bought before the housing bubble bursted, where we a very expensive mortgage in a building that it wasn’t finished or if it was completed, there where no services arround (clinics, supermarkets, pharmacies, schools, hospitals or public transportation)
Really? So I should buy a house in Spain to retire?
That’s becuase 2008 was the financial market crash and people and banks had not anticipate mortgage to crash the way it did. In any bubble or boom, expect a crash at the end. Never buy towards the end of a boom
@@TheBooban Southern Portugal much better retirement imo.
Glad I came across ur page. Great points, pace of the video was is a bit slow and the odd background music is unneeded but the quality of the content is good
6/10
I salute that economist we saw on TV decades before! The best way to fight the greed of governments and business is simply not to have kids! I salute that small group of young people! No Future No Children!!
Remember the >1 million vacant properties in Australia on the last census? Back last decade bus loads of Chinese were picked up at Australian airports, driven to unit developments and were subsequently buying properties by the handful.
A property shortage in Australia is a GIANT myth!
the australian government can buy them back at their own volition, even set the price as long as it's considdered fair, but what is fair, buying price, current estimated price, especially when it likely concerns foreign oligarchs, give them half
@@istoppedcaring6209 Buy them back with what?
It's high density housing. Australians don't want to live in high density housing. And with the amount land there is why should we? Placing 'urban grown boundaries' around major cities is a big contributor to the housing problem.
Boy, if I had a nickel for every headline screaming China’s collapse is imminent and everything’s gonna start falling apart in 3… 2… 1… Guess, I wouldn’t have to work a day in the last 30 years.
China's collapse 'will bring economic crisis to climax in 2012' this one from 2012 is crispy, and i can find one per month since 2005 easily.
then please go and invest in China lol
@@johnmabbett6586 Chinese assets are around 1/5 of my portfolio and they’re doing admirably.
@@johnmabbett6586 what an argument, wow deep ... You know that evergrande was in the US stock right. That many US company, including goldman do invest on the chinese market using your savings. Thats how ali baba was born. The Ant group, the Electrical companies too, foxconn is the same. So you are investing in Chinese companies, just not knowingly
Don’t you worry, you WILL be richly rewarded in the coming years. Population trends are like glaciers, slow and unstoppable, just a lot faster.
The biggest problem with comparing TTC with other transit systems is that the other systems tend to be better funded. It's one of the biggest reasons why in my opinion I would argue that an at grade light rail system with underground stations at Yonge and Don Mills while further east and west would have been a better option. However, I do see the value extending the line to Victoria Park. There's a big bottle neck caused by the Don Valley where not having dedicated line transit service with higher capacity. A station at Victoria Park would certainly help the workers taking transit along the Markham Scarborough border along Steeles Ave East.
Did you mean to post on a different tab? The TTC doesn't have a stop in Shanghai, though perhaps it sometimes seems that way.
@@afterthesmash I was typing while watching a video. The video ended and went on to another. But I wasn't finished typing.
China : how do we get rid of old people
also China: covid
Sometimes Chinese construction companies forget to put steel in buildings and they fall down.
They don't forget it; they do it on purpose to save money.
Both comments low blow now blow😂
You certainly do have ample proof that you’ll be willing to share, I assume?
@@2005batman are you living under a rock or the CCP hermit kingdom??
This was a good intro summary but the problem is much, much worse than this touched on. It sort of sounds here like the property market was a little overblown by overestimating the population a tad. In addition to the population problem being much worse than almost anyone realizes, these real estate developments were pumped up by local governments whose only source of revenue was selling land use leases to developers.
Ordinary people new that the Chinese stock exchange was too unstable and government bonds were worthless so property was the only way to save/invest. Vast numbers of people had 2 or 3 apartments ordered, many of which would either never get built or be built so badly they could never be finished. Entire ghost cities and new sections of existing cities were built. Western China boosters told everyone not to worry and keep investing in China because all those (over counted) rural peasants would stream into the cities in the east and buy up penthouses, despite them being unaffordable, unfinished and in expensive locations. But peasants can’t get permission to just move into these cities without a job.
While all this is happening, China’s other strength beyond real estate Ponzi schemes is cheap labour. But that doesn’t last forever when cost of living is rising and population is falling. Add to that insane government policies like cracking down on profitable industries for fear of people becoming too rich and powerful and Zero COVID and treating every foreigner as a spy and foreign investment tends to dry up.
Whether it is real estate, high speed rail or electric cars, Communist China has a consistent attitude. Make WAY too much of it, make it so high end that no one can afford it, keep faking demand by subsidies or unsustainable credit and whenever the scheme starts to break, pour more money into it.
TLDR: Get your money out of China. If your “investment firm” is advising you to invest in China it is because they want you to be the last one in the Ponzi scheme so they can get out. If your pension plan is heavily exposed to the Chinese economy I’d forget about retirement (these guys aren’t that bright). Get your supply chains out of China if you want to keep doing business in the future.
The arguments you made have been around for at least 20 years with the poster boy for them, Fox News contributor Gordon Chang of the infamous book, 'The Coming Collapse of China' published in... 2001 with his message repeated every few years since then.
@@Toliman. Insulation of Chinese economy!?? China is fully plugged into the global economic order. Over 100 countries count China as their largest treating partner! Hong Kong is the 3rd or 4th largest financial center globally. China is the single larges creditor in the world. . If China 'collapses', so do the US, EU, Japan and Korea.
@@k.k.c8670How can the real estate mess be cleaned up for the banks and the households if the realisable value is recognised? It is a problem of mind-boggling proportions.
@n.k.c8670 A broken clock is right twice a day. The signs are pointing hard now. Perhaps the government is just running out of tricks and control finally.
😅
I like you have a Mar-a-Lago box in the background lol
What Australia needs to do is to use those natural resources to manufacture products. Australia has an educated economy, lots of space and everything it needs to manufacture value added products.
yeah right
The funniest thing is that no matter how authoritarian, ruthless, or scheming you are, the one thing that governments can't control is raising population growth. No matter what policy you place to incentivize child birth, it's going to negatively affect the economy one way or another.
That "TO: MAR-A-LAGO" box behind him is hilarious😅
Sitting on the sofa right in my apartment in shanghai china. I heard about this almost 10 years.
"China's economy is crashing" is something we've been hearing for some 10+ years now lol
for some Australian, sadly hearing this is the only way they can climax
With a complete analysis of all factors, it is evident that *the CCP's population peaked in 2014.* Population-inflation by local and regional cadres, in order to get more money from the central govt, was far worse than anyone has estimated. While the CCP's population has been stagnant and declining, the level of corruption among CCP officials has only been growing.
Ccp's population? You mean China's population
I think he was referring to inflated population numbers, per past census data -- not the financial inflation we've experienced in 2022/2023 in the US. 😅
What other factors are you taking into account to lead you to that year?
nonsensical, china undercounts its population, lots of rural family don't even report their second or third or fourth child.
For your education, CCP is the government as opposed to the country China. You are confusing population of China with the membership of the CCP. By the way, you don't call America as Democratic Party America, or Labor Party Australian government. Reading between the lines, I gather that you have bones to point at China. Keep pointing as that will make you happy, but the ship won't turn for you.
That is how 5% gdp is achieved. Built, destroy, build again to maintain what winnie the pooh wants
Great until all the building companies default and banks run out of money to loan mortgages and/or people to loan them too.
@@ryanmaris1917 you are describing a world where GDP doesn't exist. Banks aren't backed by gold, there will always be infinite demand for new houses
@@janeblogs324That's, just wrong.
Um you don't understand Xi Jinping at all. He made economic speeches where he made it clear that GDP wasn't as important as it seemed. Common prosperity is his goal. It's to make sure than the slice of the pie is evenly distributed as much as possible inside China to prevent inequality. He sees western style consumption as wasteful and that's not the society he believes China should become. Past administrations allowed this bubble to keep going because they were afraid of the consequences of popping. Only Xi had the courage to deflate it because he has more power than Deng, Jiang or Hu then he can manage any short to medium term social unrest.
Obama once said the world will having resources issues if China are allowed to enjoy it as per USA standard! So naturally, China 1 child policy back then is to made sure its people have enough food to survive and are actually a selfless act which benefited mankind as a whole. Today, China able to reverse the policy as their tech is advanced enough to even help feeding the World! Abortion is a choice in modern world, so China 20million abortion vs their population of 1.4 billion is not alarming at all. Western media should reflect on its own social issues than keep picking on the well-managed China!
The west in general should keep everyone alone and worry about it own problems
It's not that they don't have any people to fill up those apartments, there's plenty of them, it's that most of the population - especially the rural folks - can't afford them.
I just don't understand how they settled on a one-child policy. Like, if you set it to be a two-child policy, you would still get a population decrease, just more stable??
Three would be appropriate, to account for the occasion young death, but I agree. If not three then, two with dispensation for a 3rd if they don't have both a boy and a girl (for reproduction reasons).
The 1 child policy dramatically released more resources for the family and for national investment. It was done to raise living standards and quality of life and lift many millions out of poverty.
It was one child for urban households. Ethnic minorities were exempt from the rules and later on if rural households had a girl then they can have another child. Alot of rich people simply paid the fines so it was never a real one child policy.
According to the video the birth rate was already 2.5 *before* the one child policy was implemented. So they went from probably actually being in the same situation as much of the rest of the world with a slowly declining population to catastrophy.
@@TheAkashicTraveller "slowly declining population to catastrophy" There is no catastrophe. China still needs to shrink its population. This video didn't mention the high level of youth unemployment that China has at present.
Brilliant 15 minute summary of where things are at. This has been coming for years and those of us who’ve spent time there aren’t surprised at all.
Cope harder nothing is going to happen , you’ll be waiting another 20 years
Fifteen minutes and thirty six seconds very well spent. Thanks so much for telling the story in a way that is both fascinating and logical. - Even some of the best commentators often only give us segments of the story, leaving the viewer with more questions. This account, in an instructive, yet entertaining way gives us a clear timeline and enlightening overview of the Chinese story going forward. Thankyou so much. - Very well done - and with FOUR KIDS!! - My hat is off to you sir!! 🎩
Filled with falsehoods. China grew 5,5% last year. They invest 40% of GDP....
Very good and informative video. Thank You. Recently (2023) the UN adjusted world population forecasts; Numbers would not top in 2100 at 11 billion but rather in 2050 at 9 billion. You mention an overcount of 100 million in China which means that for the world population to decrease by 2 billion a lot of countries are experiencing lower than forecasted net population. It would be very interesting to hear your analysis in a future vid as a decrease in 2 billion human beings would suggest a population IMplosion.
The numbers you cite are not any decrease in population, but a smaller rise in population. Eventually population will decrease whether we try to or not due to behavior combined with resource and environmental constraints, but that is another story.
Less people is good. More resources to go around. We could have a thriving world society with a unified Gov with only a billion people. Everyone could live well.
@@KevinWarburton-tv2iy "could" "unified gov" doubt it.
Smaller world pop easier to manage. a happier, healthier, wealthier populace means less Chaos ...no Civil unrest, insurrection, Rebellion, Insurgency, Civil war, War if everybody is Comfortable & looked after.
Love your work Matt. So good to see stories now on CZcams. They’ve always been so informative and insightful, from the Russia series and now (gladly) more broadly!
Agree, the visual element really adds to telling of the stories👍
really enjoy your format my dude, most engaging
This is a really great analysis. I would only add the observation that property price collapse is also what burst the bubble of the Japanese economy in the 1990s, leading to massive social problems as the whole economy had to restructure, with a similar effect on birthrates even without the aggravating factor of a one-child policy. Country after country effectively adopts a policy of becoming a consumerist paradise for the rich, just looking in the other direction when asked about the effects of this on everyone else. Japan has towns without elementary schools now.
25 years since Japan's economy collapsed and it is still undervalued at 10 times P/E
CCP recently stopped publicizing the unemployment rate for young adults. The last stats published was around 20% unemployment, the reality could double that. CCP could have an unstable cohort on its hands. Chinese history is replete with civil war and unrest when huge swathes of the population, especially males, are idle.
Last year property prices in china went down 5,5% while they grew over 5%. They are leaderes in over 75% of key technologies, they're fine.
I have just returned from China. Was astounded how many vacant apartments and unfinished buildings.
Another great episode, keep up the good work Matt and all involved. 👏👏👏
*ANOTHER COMMENTATOR* who makes a video whilst knowing absolutely nothing about China - didnt even bother to read the direction statement Xi released in 2021
China's economy is NOT "collapsing" it is moving to internally service its own population and away from exports - it will cause problems but it is a PLANNED move.
I love Matt's style of reporting !
Good info but everytime a demographer is quoted they invevitably say that high population growth is essential to economic prosperity and that growth is limitless. The way we are consuming irreplaceable resources this theory looks like a ponzi scheme to me. You didn't mention that real estate prices in China are also some of the highest in the world per capita gdp. Think this might have an effect too?
14.20-15min is hilarious yet surreal 😅
world leaders and billionaires: population is going down we need to do something
Us: how about you lower basic cost mainly rent and raise our wages
Them: ☹️
This was a nice surprise. I always enjoy the "are you listening?" podcasts
As a Filipino.😂 This sounds like such good news.
Now CCP LEAVE OUR ISLANDS ALONE 😂
Rogue Nation.
Unfortunately, Xi is likely to ramp up foreign tensions and conflict to distract the masses. Same reason Putin started the Ukraine war.
No. Better prepare to war in range between 2025 - 2027.
Salat pa
fake account.
The Mar-a-lago file box is hilarious
Five percent GDP growth this year and that sounds like in crisis. completely.😂
FYI steel is made from iron and carbon ie coal or more correctly metallurgical coal. About 2/3 of QLD coal exports are this type of coal. So there's a double whammy here to AUS gpd
When the kids rush into his office had me busting out laughing
Great insights into what's happening globally! I just had to subscribe! Thanks 👍
This is unbelievable. No one ever thought this would happen.
This is brilliant world class analysis. Matt Bevan is a major national asset. May he continue.
lol
😂😂😂
What a brilliant presentation of a story that could have been quite dull. Thank you Matt Bevan and team, for the humour, lively insights, and great research. Agree with the comment below - more like this please: 10-15 minutes are really watchable when it's this good. 👍
lol
@@space.youtube 🤡🤡🤡
Making a child an only child is a horrible thing to do to it , I know I was one .
I really enjoy your presentation style. Lots of info delivered with fun :)
Incredibly well put together. Thanks
I’m pretty well versed, so not new information for me.
But, as an American I think the Aussies have the better in-depth views on China. We just don’t have the same interdependence and it’s more of a national security issue vs economic issue.
Indeed, mate, Australian companies, and the government better learn how to diversify the economy post haste.
Yes I remember alot Republicans thinking China was some great land of hope. Like some new America.
But there is too much extreme behaviour. As in let's build too many houses or stop child birth.
@@joemac9249I think it's the other way around
As an Australian, you're scarily correct. As a nation we are heavily dependent on Chinas economic prosperity both through trade and commerce, and also through our housing and development sector which has been HEAVILY 'invested' in by various Chinese nationals for many years now.
Canada will face a similar issue, though probably not on the same level as Australia.
Love the box label in the background. 😁
You didn't mention another reason why so many of the apartments are empty, they're bought as investments but nobody moves in so that when they sell their investments, at some point in the future, whoever buys it to move in are the first to live there. There's some, I want to say superstition but I think it's not quite right, about moving into somewhere someone else has decorated. Quite baffling to us as most of us have lived somewhere fitting that description, even among first home buyers, we don't all build a new place and move in.
I was always under the impression the one child policy had a lot to do with a lack of resources at the time for their current population at the time of the laws being put into place. Im not sure that the reasons for the laws put forward in this video is accurate.
The One Child Policy was all about slowing future population growth. If what you're saying is true there would have been no reason for it to last as long as it did.
Um itheir population was pretty massive at the time and there were also policies in regards to not trading with the outside world from what I can remember so resources would have been scarce for a long time. Their population is still large currently and trade policies have obviously changed hence why they abandoned the policy because the resources are there.
Im in no way saying that the policy was humane or moral at all. Why else would someone control population growth anyway? They are controlling yes but I can not fathom why else stopping growth would make sense otherwise.I don't think it was as intentionally sinister as you are portraying.
Also how can a country with so much secrecy really be discussed so matter of factly ?@@BiggieTrismegistus
Wow! Your report seems so well informed and unbiased. That can be difficult in these times.
"unbiased" ?
I don't think that word means what you think it means. lol
I hope you're being sarcastic 🤣
My boy, go back to atleast grade 5. I think you missed many English vocab and literature classes.
Just an illusion. He failed to mention that Chairman Mao caused the overpopulation problem in the first place with his great leap forward program which largely banned family planning. Unfortunately, as smiling and cheery as the ABC presents, it is always pushing population growth on behalf of our government.
Similar in NZ but different reasons. Too many elderly with no one to look after them. Massive skilled worker shortage, but its because their all moving to Aus due to the on going housing shortage rather population limitation like China. Similar results tho. But it shows a housing limitation leads to population limitation. So the issue will resolve itself over time, govts piling in immigrants to bump numbers but diversity doesn't work as shown in Paris, they don't find employment as easily
diversity does work the french gov is just bad and racist
Housing shortages in Aus as well but probably the higher wages attracting Kiwi's to Australia. Cost of living in both countries seems similar.
You are both correct.
There is a bigger elephant in the room however. It isn't merely due to housing shortages or population limitations that caused the ch!na debacle.
There is a more fundamental reason for it and it stems from the fact that it is operated under an AUTHORITARIAN system of governance. Most people forget this fact
This is what results when a totalitarian state seeks ABSOLUTE CONTROL OVER literally ALL AFFAIRS OF ITS CITIZENS, including ones best left to an individual choices.
Remember that in that country only the government narrative is promoted and no other form of dissent is permitted.
While it has indeed developed and is now the second largest economy, people might be lulled into the illusion that it operates like any other state. But that is far from the case. It is a totalitarian state that simply adopted the capitalistic model to further it's ambition of becoming the dominant world power
The fact is Ch!na is essentially just like N0rth K0rea, just a richer, more savvy version of it and with a much better and effective pr0paganda apparatus
P.S. Also observe the thread if any as there might be wuma0s (paid trol0lls usually claiming to be other nationalities or ardent nationalists) coming into the thread talking about "whataboutisms" in an effort to distract, disuade or even discredit my point.
@@Boop45 Too true, but its a bigger economy, more opportunity. Small business is dying in NZ, I find NZ is in a land crises more than housing. Even the most unliveable swamp land hours from any city has a big price tag. Go an hour out of a man city in Aus and youll find a crappy house for under 100k and its actually sunny & warm lol
Which is just outright weird, because it's mostly rich people who have the capacity to fly to New Zealand, let alone immigrate.
Also, really? I don't get why NZ, a country of ONLY five million, is facing a housing crisis. Either your developers are not building anything, or they're absolute shit.
"You can't determine how many old people you have, well.... " 😂
I suppose this is what always happens when you apply a simplistic solution to a complex, not entirely understood, problem.
Congratulations Abc on actual journalism. Keep it up and you might get those numbers up. I actually like this guy.
Lol! Very funny how so many buy this rubbish. It’s manipulative narratives.
China’s population doubled in first ten years of communist rule, the one child policy was essential for its time, although it is no longer true because of people getting well off and not wanting more kids. But they wouldn’t have got to be biggest middle class population in the world without the policy.
don't forget, salaries never really rose either. so the ordinary people would have had no money to spend either way.
Yes but inflation is another debate. I don't think this is an interest rate problem.
"Well... I don't know about can't... but definitely shouldn't." This made me snort and smirk. Goodness my humor has grown dark and morbid with age...
If China's economy is in crisis, then how should we describe US and UK's economy?
The US economy is not in a crisis if we're comparing to China. The world is in a downturn on whole. UK I would guess is hit a little harder than the US as it went through brexit on top of the global recessions. The US also isn't going through demographic issues.
@@ShimmeringSword China's GDP growth is expected to be 5%, US is 1.8%, and you think US is not in a crisis, nice.
It’s adorable that you believe china will grow at 5%. And the word “gullible” is not listed in the dictionary either….
@@cobrakai3732 That's the prediction from IMF, but yeah, you can still think it's adorable.
@@cobrakai3732 By the way, US's debt will hit the ceiling very soon, and in UK, Birmingham City just declared bankruptcy. So who's in crisis now?
Same thing happening in india without any strict controls. Fertility rates below 2 almost in all the states. As the new generations having rising income with soaring gdp growth people are getting more materialistic want to spend a playful bachelor life & then getting depressed in 40s why they are alone. This is an irreversible process with rising living standards any country will go through this process at one time or another.
Materialistic? You mean better educated girls that now have a chance to make a living for themselves and are no longer dependent on an abusive marriage to survive? It has been proven that educating girls is the number one factor in low birth and I say good. Women are people not broodmares.
@@julieana4695he...talking about youngsters spending money on luxurious items that have next to no return value - cars, playstation etc. He hasnt specified women anywhere. not everything is about you, bim*bo. Get over yourself.
@@julieana4695just cause your marriage sucks... doesn't mean all marriages are abusive. Also, pity your husband 😅
That is the reason why you dont need any rule for this. Juste education and higher livng standards are enough for population control
@@julieana4695lmao framing marriage as inherently abusive. Found the spinstress
Brilliant reporting as usal! Thanks Matt!
Gutter journalism at it's lowest. The level of exaggeration and simplification is off the charts! Statements like " The Chinese authorities saw the scary charts and implemented the One Child Policy".
As an Aussie expat living in China for almost 20 years this is spot on. I photograph newly constructed hotels for international brands like Hyatt, IHG etc and I’ve seen multiple properties with massive delays to their opening date because the the property developer is running out of money. A few years ago when a property was nearing completion there’d be hundreds of workers now I’m seeing a quarter of that working onsite. One hotel told me they only had enough funds to pay their staff until the end of the month despite it being the summer holidays. I recently said to friends that it won’t be a war with Taiwan that makes us leave it’ll be the lack of employment opportunities.
I'm intrigued - Does the main part of your job consist of photographing new properties or is it just a subsection of the types of things you photograph for income?
It's not just a slump in iron ore that will cause issues for Australia. A large proportion of Australian GDP growth has always been down to population growth. And because it's population growth has outstripped most other countries it has had a bigger net affect on GDP growth. China has been a big contributor to that growth in the past 10 years and particularly in the area of wealthy students who contribute a bigger proportion of GDP per capita. And let's not even mention the cratering of Chinese tourism in Australia. They were very big spenders to.
Overlap a graph of aussie dollar and iron ore cost and they match. But growth has been independent to iron ore so far
It's India that will be the largest migrant source for Australia in the coming decades. Nepal and other South Asian countries will contribute to population growth the most. Just go to any business and it's full of Indian/Subcontinental workers. It's already happening
@@deezeed2817 India hit 2.0 TFR about 5 years back. In about 10-15 years, India population will start to fall too. Faster if you consider that the sex ratio is really skewed so lots of males wont be able to find brides. Earlier each generation was bigger than the previous so even wih a skewed sex ratio, older men could marry younger women but now the number of younger women is going to be even lesser than the number of women their age.
@@prabuddhaghosh7022 I think it's possible. Too many young people have no jobs and can't get married as a result.
Not past 10 years. Past 20 years. It helped Australia avoid the 2008 Global Financial Crisis and 20 years of continuous growth. Australian economic conditions will worsen with climate change and unsustainable increase in population.
What great reporting. You have an amazing ability to touch on the pertinent points of a complex trend. It is quite entertaining too. Thank you!
"Imagine all the people..."
-- Chinese real estate industry
Great presenter and an informative , well made film, thank you.
India is now the most populated country in the world.
India and Philippines
@@eyeswideopen7777 ,
Population of the Philippines is "only " about 115,000,000, way down the list.
Excellent, thanks.
I read somewhere that the number of empty (completed) apartments of all sizes in China can house the entire population of Germany; that alone is crazy if it were true, but then imagine if all of those demolished ones were actually completed.
Thank you for this content. Love to listen on my podcast app.
If Your Listening, Yes we Are & Now We Are Watching 😁