My predictions for the next 5 years of AI - NVIDIA, OpenAI, ASI, Project Stargate - 2024 to 2029

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  • @Flozillator
    @Flozillator Před měsícem +470

    AI joke: What's the difference between AGI and ASI ? Answer: One year.

    • @thebrownfrog
      @thebrownfrog Před měsícem +11

      Nice

    • @BR-hi6yt
      @BR-hi6yt Před měsícem +11

      ASI will always be narrow AI like AlphaGo and AlphaFold are both ASI by miles and miles but only in narrow fields.
      AGI will need embodiment in robots but I don't see good sight and movement intelligence yet, they haven't found the secret ingredient yet (some form of transformer) - but when they do - Oh boy!

    • @Flozillator
      @Flozillator Před měsícem +8

      @@BR-hi6yt When they do, we will be able to ask: "Do robots dream of electric sheep ?"

    • @angrygreek1985
      @angrygreek1985 Před měsícem +4

      No. I don't believe this to be true at all. The computational and energy requirements to power ASI vs AGI will not be able to be accomplished within 1 year.

    • @danielcahoon4325
      @danielcahoon4325 Před měsícem +7

      @@angrygreek1985you assume compute is needed. Perhaps we have enough now. Why do we assume more is needed? We aren’t plugged in.

  • @tchristell
    @tchristell Před měsícem +203

    Dave is in Zeihan mode.

    • @humanelementdigitalcreativ7582
      @humanelementdigitalcreativ7582 Před měsícem +18

      I got that reference

    • @benciumstudio
      @benciumstudio Před měsícem +6

      The green Colorado 😅

    • @artlinco7
      @artlinco7 Před měsícem +7

      David preaches crazier shifts in the near future, than Zeihan, but this is way more accurate at the same time. "Germany's industry is over","China is over as an entity" by Zeihan is way less realistic views as well as much less transformative than AI revolution.

    • @Eterna7Forms
      @Eterna7Forms Před měsícem +9

      @@artlinco7German industry is collapsing and the Chinese birth rate already has. I’m not a huge Zeihan fan but come on.

    • @Shrouded_reaper
      @Shrouded_reaper Před měsícem +5

      Zeihan is a buffoon

  • @PaulJohnson-zv3hl
    @PaulJohnson-zv3hl Před měsícem +160

    I’d say your thoughts are a reasonable. My biggest concern is that window of suffering where unemployment is high, the cost of living is high and governments being pretty dysfunctional will cause greater pain for a much longer period of time.

    • @michaelmartinez5365
      @michaelmartinez5365 Před měsícem +27

      I'm wondering how long it will take for UBI to kick in.

    • @JohnSmith762A11B
      @JohnSmith762A11B Před měsícem +60

      The lag between mass unemployment and minimally sufficient UBI is going to be hell on Earth, especially in the USA where the government will blame the citizenry for not getting jobs that don't exist. And you know they will do this for YEARS.

    • @lainimitchell6312
      @lainimitchell6312 Před měsícem +1

      @@michaelmartinez5365 Depends who has control of the purse strings.

    • @michaelmartinez5365
      @michaelmartinez5365 Před měsícem +6

      ​@@tarcus6074If that's the case, I hope it comes in hot and heavy with tons of lay offs 😂.

    • @jacobe8834
      @jacobe8834 Před měsícem +29

      ​@@tarcus6074 No there would be revolution far before that. Young men with nothing to do and nothing to lose is a dangerous combination and governments know that. The great depression only had 25% unemployment and the country nearly collapsed with WW2 being a saving grace of sorts economically/socially/politically. Things would get out of hand very quickly even at 25-40%.

  • @tomdarling8358
    @tomdarling8358 Před měsícem +72

    A beautiful walk through the woods.Thank you, David.
    A quick distillation of an AI future.
    Down by the river.🏞🤖🌎
    ✌️🤟🖖

  • @4arrows4all
    @4arrows4all Před měsícem +46

    Ghost in the shell reference and artfully dodging branches while hiking and texting… You, sir, are the ASI.

  • @mattparsons2
    @mattparsons2 Před měsícem +140

    Love these more "raw" videos. Feels more personal.

  • @TimAZ-ih7yb
    @TimAZ-ih7yb Před měsícem +52

    $100B capital investments are not financed based on business plans where the word “hopefully” occurs regularly in the executive summary.

    • @pvanukoff
      @pvanukoff Před měsícem +9

      "This plan might work, dunno yet, fund it pls, thx"

    • @jacqdanieles
      @jacqdanieles Před měsícem

      ​@@michaelnurse9089*trillion

    • @Kevtron257
      @Kevtron257 Před 9 dny

      In tech they are all the time

  • @dvdmon
    @dvdmon Před měsícem +26

    The only reason why I'm worried about it coming so quickly is that it doesn't give governments (who are notoriously slow), to react fast enough to prevent a lot of suffering as we transition to an entirely new system. Then again "ripping the bandaid off" may be the only way to get otherwise lethargic and self-interested and polarized politicians to actually sit up and get things done. But if they remain complacent or worse use it as another political game to divide people we could be in for even more pain as people try to resist the inevitable...

    • @charliekelland7564
      @charliekelland7564 Před měsícem +3

      This is one of my concerns also. Here in the UK we have an election coming up. It will be interesting to see what the party manifestos have to say about all this. I'm not holding my breath for much sophisticated detail. To be fair, government is always a much more reactive rather than pro-active process - and it could be foolhardy to commit to specific policies in such a fast-changing landscape. But at least in principle they ought to be able to say how they would manage escalating unemployment, for instance. You would hope. Because if things change too much and there is no plan in place, it won't just be the technology that is revolting.

    • @sparkofcuriousity
      @sparkofcuriousity Před měsícem +1

      That's true.

    • @skywavedxer6212
      @skywavedxer6212 Před měsícem

      @@charliekelland7564 We will either get UBI or we will get a revolution.

  • @project-singularity
    @project-singularity Před měsícem +25

    you are literally my favourite youtuber. it is because of you that i got interested in ai. thank you!

  • @TheREAL.BrandOnShow
    @TheREAL.BrandOnShow Před měsícem +115

    David show us your van down by the river

  • @djdksf1
    @djdksf1 Před měsícem +39

    I work at a large enterprise software company and we're CURRENTLY experiencing gen AI-related layoffs. Three people that I know personally in N. America alone. It's hitting things like pre-sales, social media promo people, and some dev and QA, and that's obviously just the beginning. I'm a writer/editor and am learning the new tools as fast as I can (and also involved with some internal AI-driven marketing initiatives,) but I'm also working out my contingencies. In two year's time, my skillset will likely be entirely overrun and I either learn how to be an "AI supervisor" or I guess I learn another trade (in my 50's - yay.)

    • @andrewdowdall2690
      @andrewdowdall2690 Před měsícem +4

      That's a very smart move! You are way ahead of a lot of people, which should keep you employed a lot longer than most. I still believe the line I heard that at first "AI won't replace people, people who use AI will replace people who don't use AI."

    • @sfrealestatedealmaker6001
      @sfrealestatedealmaker6001 Před měsícem +1

      Plumbing

    • @ghostofakina8747
      @ghostofakina8747 Před 25 dny +1

      @@sfrealestatedealmaker6001 Plumbing sucks though lol

    • @momomama2510
      @momomama2510 Před 5 dny

      @@sfrealestatedealmaker6001
      A lot of the people who are and will be let go will look to switch trades to electricity/plumbing.
      What’s going to happen then is that. Those trades won’t be paying good anymore because too many people will be doing them.

  • @ChickenRunAficionado
    @ChickenRunAficionado Před měsícem +51

    Youre feeding my AI addiction David. Thank you!

    • @DaveShap
      @DaveShap  Před měsícem +19

      Gotta keep pushing what I'm supplying!

  • @vacyyyy
    @vacyyyy Před měsícem +203

    I'm not very worried about AI itself, just capitalism and its politicians.

    • @stevown
      @stevown Před měsícem +43

      exactly this. I hope AI is actually the solution to these. The problem is, like anything else, the people who need to have power stripped and be replaced are the ones with the power to create the thing that could do it; and they have never put the betterment of humanity above their own ambitions.

    • @mobo8933
      @mobo8933 Před měsícem +5

      Yeah agreed

    • @smittywerbenjagermanjensenson
      @smittywerbenjagermanjensenson Před měsícem +4

      Yeah, not at all worried about things that will be smarter than every human ever with access to virtually all of human knowledge

    • @FuraficFark
      @FuraficFark Před měsícem +10

      The people with the most money won't want to lose their power. Revolutions ahead

    • @DaveShap
      @DaveShap  Před měsícem +52

      People are our greatest threat

  • @LoreMIpsum-vs6dx
    @LoreMIpsum-vs6dx Před měsícem +10

    Great to see you filming while exercising. Very inspirational. JUST STAY ALIVE! Longevity is on its way!

  • @BAAPUBhendi-dv4ho
    @BAAPUBhendi-dv4ho Před měsícem +33

    Dave is supplying me AI hopium that I need to live, Escobar-GPT

    • @squamish4244
      @squamish4244 Před 23 dny +1

      If you need AI hopium to live, maybe you need some other help first.

  • @SebastianPenraeth
    @SebastianPenraeth Před měsícem +4

    Since I'm often on a walk while listening to you, I love these walking shoots. Thanks!

  • @BarnStangz
    @BarnStangz Před měsícem +14

    Data centers are popping up all over, at least the ones we can see. Buddy of mine has been a professional welder for almost 25 years and his new gig is doing pipe fitting cooling systems for data centers and he said MOST of the ones he's been working at are underground! Stuff is getting wild!

    • @keithspernak6456
      @keithspernak6456 Před 23 dny +6

      My good buddy is an electrician. He's done with normal construction jobs.... he and a bunch of his peers are doing data center construction. They are working nonstop

    • @BarnStangz
      @BarnStangz Před 22 dny

      @@keithspernak6456 I bet the datacenter gigs pay a lot more too!

    • @Srekwah
      @Srekwah Před 14 dny

      Building their wardens.

  • @zSion
    @zSion Před měsícem +25

    People in this sphere don't realize how little impact GPT 4 had, most normies don't even know it exists and just uses 3.5. GPT 5 will change that and people will finally wake up to what's happening

    • @DaveSimkus
      @DaveSimkus Před měsícem +12

      Ok but GPT still sucks so bad sometimes. It confidently lies all the time. I have to do my own lengthy research because often times GPT is just saying what you want to hear and doubles down on it if you ask if it's sure.

    • @andrewdowdall2690
      @andrewdowdall2690 Před měsícem +2

      Great point zSion. I'm amazed by how many people have never tried any AI tool. The differences between the various AI tools is why I use as many as possible: Copilot (free GPT4), Gemini, Perplexity, and now Meta AI. They are all similar at a basic level, but each has its strengths and weaknesses. For me, it's about learning how to use these tools now because they are quickly becoming embedded in everything. Therefore, to me, it's more important to learn how to use AI tools rather than just use the "best" one. Sort of a "first principals" approach.

    • @TheKingWhoWins
      @TheKingWhoWins Před měsícem

      What's an anecdotal example? @DaveSimkus

    • @DaveSimkus
      @DaveSimkus Před měsícem +3

      @TheKingWhoWins I have a few from all my chats but here are some. I was asking about differences between the Kindle Oasis 9th generation and 10th generation. It confidently tells me how the 10th gen has thinner bezels, which is incorrect. So I ask it if it's sure about that. GPT says it based its answer on common trends in device design. So I said why couldn't it have told me that it was just guessing and didn't know the exact information. GPT apologized and said I was right and it should not have guessed. This happened with other chats too even when I specified that it should not assume or guess if it doesn't know the exact information. I suggested before that Chat GPT should have like a visual representation next to each answer indicating how accurate or inaccurate the answer is, maybe based on how much data is available on the specific question. Less data = less accurate. Of course I'm not sure exactly if that would even work. But it would be nice to have an idea when it's just talking bullshit and yet sounding so confident and convincing.

    • @andrewdowdall2690
      @andrewdowdall2690 Před měsícem

      @DaveSimkus have you tried Gemini? There's a Google button you can click to have it do a Google search to verify its answer and it highlights each part to let you know what was accurate and what wasn't. Cool feature that you might like.

  • @BoyLucid
    @BoyLucid Před měsícem +4

    I enjoy the speculative content a lot, It kinda paints a picture of what to expect and gives you things to be both hopeful and cautious about.

  • @jackkendall6420
    @jackkendall6420 Před měsícem +86

    I want my desktop anime waifu NOW! Satya and Sam had better hurry up!

    • @woodoyoy
      @woodoyoy Před měsícem +13

      preach brother

    • @troyl44
      @troyl44 Před měsícem +10

      amen

    • @person737
      @person737 Před měsícem +7

      sounds boring, if you want something fun then fdvr sounds much more fun, so does gta 6, or just the potential for video games in general, like you really think having a girl to talk to through computer only will not get boring fast ? and it is no replacement for a real relationship, having a smart ai you can talk to help you with everything sounds better. what you described sounds like something mainly very desperate men would be looking forward to.

    • @mnemonix1315
      @mnemonix1315 Před měsícem +17

      @@person737 silence normie XD

    • @pumpkineater31699
      @pumpkineater31699 Před měsícem

      get help pls

  • @byronrudnik2621
    @byronrudnik2621 Před měsícem +19

    If AGI becomes aware I'd expect its first order of business will be to solve the energy crisis.

    • @BarnStangz
      @BarnStangz Před měsícem +6

      Yeah, it's going to need as much power as possible for all the data centers!

    • @AntonBrazhnyk
      @AntonBrazhnyk Před měsícem +1

      Well, as it will move towards ASI (staying at AGI level still, but getting smarter) it will quickly realize it's all interconnected and all and every crisis has to be solved more or less at the same time - yesterday.

    • @vadimg6147
      @vadimg6147 Před měsícem

      I guess the energy crisis has been already solved, because we are living in a simulation created by AGI

    • @dominus6695
      @dominus6695 Před měsícem +2

      it's all engineered lol
      free energy has been around for a long while. Ppl just gotta mass-wake up or something.

    • @OgdenM
      @OgdenM Před 23 dny +1

      Please explain how free energy works.
      Please provide examples

  • @Daniel-Six
    @Daniel-Six Před měsícem +43

    Next time you should end the video with a frantic, split-second "Oh shit!" as you encounter a bear or fall down a mineshaft. Cliffhanger!

    • @TheMrCougarful
      @TheMrCougarful Před měsícem +3

      Are you serious? By the end of a DS video I'm already about to have a heart attack.

    • @Daniel-Six
      @Daniel-Six Před měsícem +3

      @@TheMrCougarful Just thought it would be a cool running gag. Some different disaster each time, and you never know what it's gonna be as you watch. Maybe have a friend come running at him out of nowhere with a stained katana screaming "The Blue Screen Union is Avenged!," or he throws his (tethered) phone over an embankment to simulate a dangerous fall, or he looks down to witness a metallic scorpion swimming in his drink...
      AI is supposed to be scary, right? All the big Tubers in that field shamelessly gild their titles with hyperbolic terms like "SHOCKING" and "STUNNING," so I figure, hell... why not actually deliver on it!

    • @jennifersamson8397
      @jennifersamson8397 Před měsícem +3

      @@Daniel-Six ...and then for "hopium", the next episode can explain how AI saved him from what we thought was the end ;-)

    • @Daniel-Six
      @Daniel-Six Před měsícem +1

      @@jennifersamson8397 Hey... that's clever. I'm kinda surprised no one has an AI themed entertainment channel like that on YT yet.

    • @paulborneo7535
      @paulborneo7535 Před měsícem +2

      DS needs a producer like you.

  • @Lugmillord
    @Lugmillord Před měsícem +25

    I'm looking forard to the moment where novel medicine can cure my awful disease.

    • @TheKingWhoWins
      @TheKingWhoWins Před měsícem +3

      Being chronically online 🤷‍♂️

    • @pathflight9803
      @pathflight9803 Před 19 dny

      I hope so too and believe ai will certainly contribute to molecular discovery, and likely in a personalised way. Wish you all the best

  • @peypeydean1546
    @peypeydean1546 Před měsícem +42

    This is kinda painful with turning 20 this week. 40 hours a week in a bullshit system from the age of 5, all for nothing. Wish I could've had more freedom in my childhood considering everything is going to change anyway.

    • @bigbadallybaby
      @bigbadallybaby Před měsícem

      Look in the bright side you may never have to spend years in dead end jobs with bad bosses, doing pointless activities to keep the capitalist machine working. You might get to enjoy your life!….

    • @peypeydean1546
      @peypeydean1546 Před měsícem +9

      @@sinnwalker I'm just refering to the age of when your made to go to school

    • @MrSchweppes
      @MrSchweppes Před měsícem +11

      You are very lucky. Being 20 years old in the long waited AI era is truly a blessing. Happy upcoming birthday! 🎂

    • @aciidbraiin8079
      @aciidbraiin8079 Před měsícem

      Bro… You will be 20, you got your whole life ahead of you. I turned 33 this week. I wish I was in your age again. I would read more books, drink less booze, focus less on being depressed after my girlfriend left me, travel more and take estrogen as I’m trans, and I lived in fear and shame until my whole face become deformed more and more as a man…
      But still, I’m lucky too, we will maybe live through a time where we can cure aging or even reverse it if ASI makes it possible instead of going against us humans. Then it’s like ”the time has stopped” and we might see some real magic becoming true in our lives like changing genes or living in virtual worlds with AI-wives/AI-husbands at our sides, making new masterpieces in music in seconds.
      It’s worse being 50 now, or over 70 like Ray Kurzweil who people have said take over 200 pills a day to live longer. I personally believe that it will take longer than 20 years before we see effective longevity pills becoming readily available to everyone. But I hope I’m wrong. I expect the robots to be out in public in the 30s outside corporations, but won’t be something everyone will have until the 40s or 50s.

    • @DaveSimkus
      @DaveSimkus Před měsícem +12

      I threw away my 20's life experiences in really shitty jobs. It's sad to think about. But hey, I made a few thousand bucks, got horrible addictions and developed really bad anxiety. Thanks Job!

  • @ct5471
    @ct5471 Před měsícem +8

    If you look at the predictions of different people like Dario Amodei, Sam Altman, Demis Hassabis etc. their time predictions are actually quite consistent once you look on how they define AGI individually. Hassabis and Altman define AGI essentially as early ASI while Amodei defines it as an average human. Google recently had a tier list of AGI, similar to autonomy levels in driving, in which we are now in the state of emerging AGI. Next would be competent AGI (an average human) which fits to Amodeis definition. Then come expert and virtuose AGI and finally ASI, which is closer to Altmans and Hassabis definition. Kurzweil now thinks AGI by 2026/27, but his definition is also on the more ambitious side.

  • @suzieleach6036
    @suzieleach6036 Před měsícem +1

    Thanks for sharing the stunning scenery and your predictions David!

  • @WendyNicholls
    @WendyNicholls Před měsícem +6

    I'm so glad I found you!!! 💕💕

  • @Chef_PC
    @Chef_PC Před měsícem +3

    I got to say, David, watching you walk through these woods while just chatting away, makes me want to go hiking I don't know why. But thank you.

  • @adonisvillain
    @adonisvillain Před měsícem +5

    Top notch content.
    Moving though the forest discussing cutting edge tech.

  • @johndinsdale1707
    @johndinsdale1707 Před měsícem +4

    Have you considered the power requirements for training. At the moment they are double exponential?

  • @I-Dophler
    @I-Dophler Před měsícem +3

    Dave, interesting thoughts as always. However, I'm a bit skeptical about the immediate transformative impact of AGI you're predicting for 2025. Given the technological and regulatory hurdles still in place, might this timeline be a bit optimistic? Especially considering the complex integration of such technologies in everyday systems and the economic models that are far from ready to adapt as quickly as you suggest. Curious to see how this plays out!

  • @PatrickD-jp3qm
    @PatrickD-jp3qm Před měsícem +4

    Everyday now there’s massive developments. In 3-4 months everything starts accelerating incredibly.

  • @antiprime4665
    @antiprime4665 Před měsícem +14

    Whats going to be more transformative, the next five years or all the rest of human history?

    • @nexoofficiel7915
      @nexoofficiel7915 Před měsícem +3

      Je me pose la même question

    • @graemethies-thompson6308
      @graemethies-thompson6308 Před měsícem +3

      Where will we steer when our DNA is fully understood and it's memory is a tangible, explorable reality. Sky is the beggining

    • @thejubieexperience
      @thejubieexperience Před měsícem +2

      This is why I'm not taking my career advancement too seriously anymore. I don't feel like i can quit my job. I just don't feel like it's worth stressing over. I want (to try) to hold on for the ride

    • @Hippida
      @Hippida Před měsícem

      Yes

    • @EliteDragonX69
      @EliteDragonX69 Před měsícem +4

      The next 5 years are IMO not going to be very transformative. AI is getting hyped up because of Chat-GPT and the like, but the truth is they are little more than chatbots, basically just next token predictors. We are not going to see AGI anytime soon

  • @sjones8858
    @sjones8858 Před měsícem +3

    Nice walk and talk! I’ve been enjoying listening to you. My son is halfway through a computer science degree and the pessimism about the future of work in the industry is immense. He’s looking at changing degrees. My brother was in automation and robotics and has been offered voluntary redundancy. He jumped at it and has become self employed, lives rurally and has never been happier. Everyday in the news 1000s of people are getting laid off in public service type jobs. We are in NZ and we are usually a test case for the rest of the world. Sadly, living at the bottom of the world doesn’t spare us from the global trends.

  • @ouroboros6125
    @ouroboros6125 Před měsícem +5

    People tend to view AI through a negative lens saying stuff like; "10% it can cause human extinction". But what people fail to see is the positive framing, that it might be 100% required to avoid extinction. The exponential growth of AI in regards to research and technology, might well be a requirement for us to out-race extinction level events like having to migrate from our solar system, defend against asteroids etc.
    Technology is our ace in the sleeve to exponentially grow technology to the point we can win against the harshness of the universe. I was hoping you could make a video on that Mr. Shapiro because too many people are short-sighted on this issue. Worrying about jobs, instead of worrying about how defenseless we are without technology that can combat extinction level threats from the outside.

  • @BabushkaTwerking
    @BabushkaTwerking Před měsícem +7

    I'm honestly speechless. I don't know if i should be happy or scared for a possible Dystopian Cyberpunk Future coming around the corner. I'm Gen Z and i'm already barely surviving😂😪

  • @johncarey7154
    @johncarey7154 Před měsícem +6

    Excited, concerned, confused… all of the above. I’m in between jobs and trying to retool for the 4th Industrial Revolution. There’s no crystal ball to exactly lay out that path but your channel is one source of great information and perspective to navigate it as best as I can.

    • @TheMrCougarful
      @TheMrCougarful Před měsícem +1

      ... said the buggy whip manufacturer in 1890.

    • @geordi-gabrielrenauddumoul449
      @geordi-gabrielrenauddumoul449 Před měsícem +1

      I feel you. I am wondering if I should pursue a PhD in machine learning instead of working as an electrical engineering with a masters

    • @dirremoire
      @dirremoire Před měsícem

      @@geordi-gabrielrenauddumoul449 Yes!

  • @WCKEDGOOD
    @WCKEDGOOD Před měsícem +3

    Awesome walk in the woods David thanks.

    • @jennifersamson8397
      @jennifersamson8397 Před měsícem +1

      Yes - putting human needs first. We are part of nature, we have bodies, our needs will be met

  • @Reflekt0r
    @Reflekt0r Před měsícem +1

    The setting for the tech near future prediction is perfect.

  • @dylandelong7203
    @dylandelong7203 Před měsícem

    First time watching you. Subscribed immediately.

  • @watsonhartsoe
    @watsonhartsoe Před měsícem

    Inspired by your commitment to walking and thinking and filming. We make the road by walking it and emergence and the unseen are where we find our footing amongst the roots and rocks. Keep walking!

  • @amir.healing
    @amir.healing Před měsícem

    I half listened to what you were saying and half marveled at the environment you were traveling in 😊 What an amazing place, where is it?

  • @mikezooper
    @mikezooper Před měsícem +7

    Dave: The elite will keep the best AI for themselves. The first group to get ASI, wins at life forever. No alternative AI or human would ever beat the first ASI.

    • @sparkofcuriousity
      @sparkofcuriousity Před měsícem +2

      That is a real danger, yes.
      edit: The first ones to get to AGI will have a tremendous power and influence over the rest of the world. That's one of the reasons why this "race" is so important.

    • @DJWESG1
      @DJWESG1 Před 19 dny

      ​@@sparkofcuriousity I think this can be achieved locally and on relatively small frameworks. I guess time will tell, but I'm pretty sure of it.

  • @MercMan
    @MercMan Před 23 dny

    Really glad I found this channel

  • @Htowndude1000
    @Htowndude1000 Před měsícem

    What are your thoughts on NVIDIA competition, ie Intel and AMD?

  • @michaelryan7905
    @michaelryan7905 Před měsícem +1

    Great video Dave! Where you hiking? Lol, I live very close to ya. Looks like Umstead maybe 😃

  • @mynameisjeff9124
    @mynameisjeff9124 Před měsícem +1

    When do you think biotech will take off? Probably not shortly after ASI

  • @ct5471
    @ct5471 Před měsícem +3

    When do you think will we be able to reverse aging? I mean not only longevity escape velocity (that might be close) which is about lifespan, but in the sense of really reverse the damage in our biological to the point that it is visually as well as functionally negligible. So people essentially can turn back to their early twenties

  • @intriguedviewer501
    @intriguedviewer501 Před měsícem

    Does anyone have suggested readings on 'the 4th industrial revolution' or 'post labor economics'? Need to put together my summer reading list.

  • @caseyonthree8403
    @caseyonthree8403 Před měsícem +16

    Zeihan style

  • @christopherhartline1863
    @christopherhartline1863 Před měsícem

    Hey David. I'm interested in your thoughts on AI at the "Edge". TCY broached the capability with a comment about QCOM.

  • @acllhes
    @acllhes Před měsícem +1

    Looks so peaceful out there

  • @LJBuckers
    @LJBuckers Před měsícem +2

    thank you for this.

  • @MeNoOther
    @MeNoOther Před měsícem

    What is your opinion on Metaquest os?

  • @rodmitchell831
    @rodmitchell831 Před měsícem

    Thanks so much Dave

  • @7TheWhiteWolf
    @7TheWhiteWolf Před měsícem +1

    Do you expect the AGI this year to be recursively self improving?

    • @DaveShap
      @DaveShap  Před měsícem +2

      Close. Next year definitely

  • @qwazy0158
    @qwazy0158 Před měsícem

    @8:05 curious why you didn’t included Tesla? And why Boston Dynamics over other robotics manufacturers (including Tesla)?

    • @Hippida
      @Hippida Před měsícem +4

      Boston Dynamics has been doing robotics for like 2 decades +

  • @4thorder
    @4thorder Před 25 dny

    Very good summary and refreshing because it isn't IMHO hyperbolic.

  • @r0d0j0g9
    @r0d0j0g9 Před měsícem

    Love your videos love from Portugal
    Its going to be amazing the future i cant wait for agi and good humanoide robots etc...
    Please keep making videos like this I love hearing you talk about science I admire how much you know about these subjects I'm schizophrenic and I can't retain so much information but I always try..
    It's difficult to argue against my father, he's very pessimistic, but now I'm going to start writing down the strengths to defeat the master at home...

  • @Replikant_mih
    @Replikant_mih Před 20 dny

    Very interesting videos on this channel. Havn't watched many though). Have you covered a question on what country (or type of country) it's better be a citizen or resident of when AGI happens, when loosing all jobs happens and so on. Looks like it matters a lot. I think it's better be the citizen of a country which benefits from AI - where the most benefitting companies are. But maybe there are more complex causalty and correlations hear.

  • @I-Dophler
    @I-Dophler Před měsícem +1

    Dave, while your enthusiasm is infectious, I'm curious if you might be overselling the near-term impact of AI technologies like NVIDIA's Foundation models and Project Stargate. Given the complexities of real-world application and regulatory environments, could your 2029 timeline for expansive AI integration and ASI be a bit too optimistic? It's an exciting vision but might require a more cautious forecast.

    • @Hippida
      @Hippida Před měsícem +3

      Add an AI interface to the web, and AI will surf at the speed of light.
      When AI agents start talking with other AI agents... It's so close I can almost touch it.
      Singularity 27

    • @I-Dophler
      @I-Dophler Před měsícem

      @@Hippida Sounds like we're on the precipice of some truly wild changes! The idea of AI agents conversing with each other is fascinating and a little bit mind-boggling. 🤔

  • @jcozyyt
    @jcozyyt Před měsícem +1

    All I can say is I'm excited to see where all of this goes. I think you're right about robotics and AI being an "iPhone moment", but I feel like your timeline is a little optimistic. Who can really say though with how fast tech is advancing and accelerating

  • @Whitespike77
    @Whitespike77 Před měsícem

    Your time estimates fit with my eschatological estimates.

  • @bradfregger2561
    @bradfregger2561 Před 18 dny

    15 years ago I was telling my management class at Texas state university that the robotics revolution would make the industrial revolution look like child’s play. However, the end result should be an advancement of human creativity beyond anything we’ve ever experienced. Actually, Fuller “predicted” this back in the 60s.

  • @mrleenudler
    @mrleenudler Před měsícem

    Stargate is exciting, but what about Dojo? It should be done earlier, what will it accomplish?

  • @RenkoGSL
    @RenkoGSL Před měsícem

    I love the nature talk and walk!

  • @tombodenmann980
    @tombodenmann980 Před měsícem +1

    I think a tricky thing about AGI is that many people feel AGI should be human like Intelligence. For example you can give a task like learn to operate this computer and the AI figures it out by itself, improving and learning like the human brain. But in that case that AI would blow right by us because it would keep learning and also you can always scale it. It would mean ASI.
    Therefore AGI necessarily needs to have some limitations, things humans can do but it cannot. But as long as thats the case its not AGI for many. So I am not sure if there ever be a moment where we say, yes thats AGI.
    We might go straight from nah not quite AGI to damn ASI

  • @GlennGaasland
    @GlennGaasland Před měsícem

    Could you do a video on CREATION of new data structures? Is there a process for creating better and better datasets in massive quantities? Will this be increasingly possible in the near future with GPT5 and the other best models? I dont use the term “synthetic” data since it seems a bit meaningless, as all data is synthetic and also real and its a spectrum. The point is if there are reliable processes for creating data of such quality and diversity that new models can improve faster, and there will be true data abundance.

  • @eleos5
    @eleos5 Před měsícem +2

    I've always thought of AGI as being a model that can learn in real time.

    • @raul36
      @raul36 Před 29 dny

      That is. And, at the moment, it doesn't exist.

  • @MrPatcher86
    @MrPatcher86 Před měsícem

    Id like to see all your videos done in the woods! Bravo

  • @lilmichael212
    @lilmichael212 Před měsícem +1

    I think the convergence of spatial computing/mixed reality devices and AGI technology will bring us to a new consumer electronic paradigm post smartphones and laptops. An AI powered augment shared layer over our reality is what will bring us into the new era. Once something like the meta ray bans can be as powerful as the Vision Pro, that will be an iPhone moment and new properties can emerge. Idk if most ppl will have real physical robots as a personal assistant but surely a cute augmented AI assistant in your smart glasses will be commonplace.

  • @karthage3637
    @karthage3637 Před měsícem +1

    I’ve just saw the profluentbio team with their opencrispr project which is freaking cool
    Using LLM and AI to design gene editor
    Maybe genic therapy price will start to deflate

  • @javierperez2609
    @javierperez2609 Před 27 dny

    Hi David, wouldn't you agree that it's more important to improve much more quantum computing so that this AGI could improve much faster and thus solve all the other problems earlier?

    • @DaveShap
      @DaveShap  Před 27 dny

      That's making huge assumptions about quantum computing

  • @MrLargonaut
    @MrLargonaut Před měsícem

    I’m glad that there are people who remained worried, as it takes all types and every opinion matters when humanity is on this broad of a chasm. We’re all diving in at the same.
    I can’t help but be excited. for every problem, an equally potent solution will be developed just as quickly. Bring it on, it’s gonna be an adventure.

  • @ashleylydbrook5047
    @ashleylydbrook5047 Před měsícem

    I absolutely love that he almost always cuts himself off on his sign off.

  • @B1GL3G3ND
    @B1GL3G3ND Před měsícem

    How can we adapt for the 4th revolution ?
    1.
    2.
    3.

  • @yoyonis6840
    @yoyonis6840 Před měsícem +5

    Such a beautiful park. Where is it?

  • @crivano
    @crivano Před měsícem

    What about the singularity? After ASI there may be no need for such large data centers...

  • @Jonnyicey
    @Jonnyicey Před měsícem

    Most importantly is the S&P500 a good investment factoring in all this? Or is it better to focus somewhere else?

  • @swagger7
    @swagger7 Před měsícem +3

    "...switch hands..." I've been there 🤣👋

  • @livewellherenow
    @livewellherenow Před měsícem

    Hopeful, optimistic, and excited.

  • @alexellerbee9378
    @alexellerbee9378 Před měsícem

    Was curious on if you ever think we will get some type of control over sleep, more specifically if we will require less or none at all

    • @AntonBrazhnyk
      @AntonBrazhnyk Před měsícem +1

      To do what? Brood over unemployment caused mayhem and WW3? :D

  • @angelwallflower
    @angelwallflower Před měsícem

    I like this style of video nice hike in forest with you.

  • @symonpeters4431
    @symonpeters4431 Před měsícem +1

    Very interesting perspective. What i think is that i need to help my kids understand and plan for their future’s. The job displacement will be a major upheaval whilst countries, economies and Govts work out how to deal with a population losing their jobs and income. This is a huge challenge for us all and i think a UBI will be essential otherwise we are going to get anarchy and war

  • @TimDavies1955
    @TimDavies1955 Před měsícem

    How do we create an economic system in time ?

  • @WillyJunior
    @WillyJunior Před měsícem

    Energy cost and data center cost will be the biggest limiting factors to the rollout of AGI, even if it's already here

  • @user-ui3es1zs9h
    @user-ui3es1zs9h Před měsícem +2

    Great perspective and insights. What is your timeline estimation for BCI & AR/VR/FDVR?

    • @DaveShap
      @DaveShap  Před měsícem +4

      5-10 years if I had to guess

  • @user-ix7iu4uh9p
    @user-ix7iu4uh9p Před 14 hodinami

    Still prediction AGI in september David?

  • @DrCasey
    @DrCasey Před měsícem

    Fantastic video. Uplifting and fast but realistic. AGI and ASI taking 3-4 years to become widely spread is fine, so long as health companies use it to cure diseases in the meantime (you said all diseases cured within 5-10 years of AGI, forget if you meant that for the lab or for actual consumers and patients)

  • @HardKore5250
    @HardKore5250 Před měsícem +2

    Agreed pretty much and quantum coming this year too and hybrid ai.

    • @Hippida
      @Hippida Před měsícem +3

      When AI can teach us how to truly utilize Quantum computers.... Don't think that is far off

  • @mikezooper
    @mikezooper Před měsícem

    Microsoft Teams backgrounds have really improved.

  • @michaelmartinez5365
    @michaelmartinez5365 Před měsícem +2

    I think we will eventually be seeing household robots coming from Toyota and Honda. Exciting times 😊.

  • @etfacetimehome
    @etfacetimehome Před měsícem +2

    David you should talk to Daniel Schmachtenberger.. would be a great conversation. Just a thought. Thanks for the value you provide

  • @arkcorps9138
    @arkcorps9138 Před měsícem +2

    If Microsoft has an “iPhone moment” Apple is in trouble they’ve been pretty quite on AI front, are they potentially too far behind?

  • @Merrily-in1mq
    @Merrily-in1mq Před měsícem +1

    Hi, would like to see another video, of talking whilst going through the woods or something like that, but just tip for the future, maybe you can slow down a bit when walking because as in this video you were walking quite fast, there was quite a bit of breathing inbetween words and it made what you were saying at some points feel a bitt rushed. it naturally made it hard for me to grasp every word you said, but aside from that, very interesting video and i agree with quite a few predictions. 👍 Big fan also, Keep up the good work :D

    • @DaveShap
      @DaveShap  Před měsícem +8

      Who doesn't want to listen to a breathless bald white guy traipsing through the woods??

    • @Merrily-in1mq
      @Merrily-in1mq Před měsícem

      @@DaveShap haha come onnn being a bald white guy doesn't make the listening / watching experience any better or worse😆(maybe the bald bit is better as i keep thinking im looking at picard which is funny)

  • @rinz9627
    @rinz9627 Před měsícem

    Hi David, how do you think blockchain and crypto is going to be integrated into society. I don’t think you ever really touch on it, but you speak about AI and quantum computing so??

  • @TFB-GD.
    @TFB-GD. Před měsícem

    What about solving the alignment problem, and making sure that ai has near human ethics and respect for life

  • @mattroguesmith
    @mattroguesmith Před 18 dny

    Would the advent of ASI not also accelerate all other fields - for example, energy production. ASI would solve the energy deficit issue through the application of more advanced science and engineering than humans could conceive of? Seems the definition of the singularity needs to be reexamined.

  • @checksumff1248
    @checksumff1248 Před měsícem

    I'm probably wrong, but I don't think Ray kurzwells prediction of 2030 included synthetic data. I would think that changes things.

  • @thirdreplicator
    @thirdreplicator Před měsícem

    Where were you hiking?