Life in 20 years - My 2044 Predictions - AGI, Fusion, Biotech, Quantum - Milestones and Impacts!

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  • čas přidán 22. 05. 2024
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  • Věda a technologie

Komentáře • 1,4K

  • @CEOofLibertyMutualInsurance
    @CEOofLibertyMutualInsurance Před 3 měsíci +432

    MSE major here, not a lot of people know what we do haha. You're right about the chip fab work, most of my classmates are gonna work at Micron when they graduate and I have a job lined up at a fab making silicon carbide chips. Computational methods for material discovery/design are very limited - one of my class' senior capstone projects is computational and that group has to use many workarounds to get even a supercomputer to compute what they need. Because quantum computing is best used for quantum processes, and the quantum processes of materials is what makes computational methods so difficult, quantum computing is set to revolutionize material discovery. Combine that with AI that basically has a very accurate intuition of what properties a novel material would have, and you're talking about 100x-ing our current level of material discovery. This has downstream effects on basically anything - better batteries, better chips, much more sustainable plastics, basically any problem we're facing today will be easier to solve if we have a 100x material discovery process.

    • @DaveShap
      @DaveShap  Před 3 měsíci +99

      MSE == Material Science Engineering for those not in the know. Thanks for chiming in :)

    • @wongralvju
      @wongralvju Před 3 měsíci +12

      MSE to make better golf shaft so I can hit further as I age :)

    • @eSKAone-
      @eSKAone- Před 3 měsíci +27

      Exactly. Every so called "scientist" that does not see that the universe is a living thing is just a mechanic. His mind can only process the obvious parts of life before his eyes.
      Everything is alive. Life does not end at the other side of a cell's membrane. A city is an organism too. There is no isolated system in the universe. It's systems within systems, overlapping each other.
      God is life itself. Everything in life is connected. We are part of a greater being. Religions are just different languages, they are an attempt to communicate this insight to other humans. With science getting more and more of the picture (macrocosm, microcosm), and people getting educated about it, it will be easier and easier for everyone to understand it.
      For that:☮️, you have to see this:☯️

    • @jf9387
      @jf9387 Před 3 měsíci +3

      Exciting prospects, thanks for sharing!

    • @MichaelMcDonald-my2np
      @MichaelMcDonald-my2np Před 3 měsíci +3

      ​@@DaveShapwith AI these narratives should be figured out by the summer

  • @typicaleight099
    @typicaleight099 Před 3 měsíci +838

    As someone who is about to turn 20 I can’t even imagine what life will be like in 5 years let alone 20

    • @DaveShap
      @DaveShap  Před 3 měsíci +410

      You'll be 25 in five years, and 40 in 20 years. I'm a wizard.

    • @jacksonmatysik8007
      @jacksonmatysik8007 Před 3 měsíci +75

      Yeah. I'm studying finance with debt (8k a year) and I already know my degree will be useless. But I am so optimistic about the hyper abundance future.

    • @YaSynAmRaUi
      @YaSynAmRaUi Před 3 měsíci

      I really hope our optimism is not just a coping mechanism!@@jacksonmatysik8007

    • @codfather6583
      @codfather6583 Před 3 měsíci +119

      Being nearly 50, i know i'm going to be 25 in 20 years :P

    • @szymskiPL
      @szymskiPL Před 3 měsíci +45

      And possibly 220 in 200 years. Cheers

  • @michaelschmitt7055
    @michaelschmitt7055 Před 3 měsíci +426

    I'm a teacher and i couldn't agree more. I'm already using AI and it gave me superpowers! For example: if one of the children likes football, I use AI to create a text about football - simultaneously working on individualised grammar topics. I couldn't do this for everyone without AI

    • @Falkov
      @Falkov Před 3 měsíci +11

      Glad to hear that!

    • @jamesgaines6676
      @jamesgaines6676 Před 3 měsíci +31

      This is a fantastic use of AI!

    • @Recuper8
      @Recuper8 Před 3 měsíci +18

      Yeah, teachers really are quickly becoming obsolete. Unless, of course, you consider the babysitting elements.

    • @Ef554rgcc
      @Ef554rgcc Před 3 měsíci

      Please stop using AI to teach children. A.I. is wrong very often and I seriously doubt you can tell the difference every time.

    • @Boxing_Gamer
      @Boxing_Gamer Před 3 měsíci +23

      And the student will use chat gpt to solve it lol

  • @RockEsper
    @RockEsper Před 3 měsíci +105

    It's an honor to meld into the superorganism with you guys

    • @fishygaming793
      @fishygaming793 Před 2 měsíci +8

      Ye..... Might this actually be it? The ultimate change of humanity? AND I MIGHT ACTUALLY EXPERIENCE IT?!?
      I don`t know what to expect, but i`m super curious!

    • @jephbennett
      @jephbennett Před 2 měsíci +4

      I was just thinking the SAME THING. Which seemed crazy until I remembered we are just 2 nodes broadcasting the same data at different times.

    • @vagrant1943
      @vagrant1943 Před 2 měsíci +1

      lol, it's the techno rapture.

    • @a.k.8725
      @a.k.8725 Před měsícem +4

      I think individuality will be at an all time high at an age where you can make yourself look however you want, bioengineer physical features however you want, get brainchips that could potentially increase your cognitive ability. With all of these customizations to ourselves, the only thing that will make us stand out amongst one another is personality and a unique job custom designed for ourselves and i think that will be awesome.

    • @righteousone5119
      @righteousone5119 Před měsícem

      @@a.k.8725 it's literally like a character creator from video games but in real life. If this is what we are headed for, it is an incredibly exciting future

  • @Paratzi
    @Paratzi Před 2 měsíci +193

    Gonna save this video for the next 20 years to see how well it ages

    • @yamenmohammad3617
      @yamenmohammad3617 Před 2 měsíci +11

      You wont lmao

    • @freebusycat
      @freebusycat Před 2 měsíci +15

      People are promising me flying cars since the 1960's so I guess 90% of his predictions won't happen

    • @therandommusicguy4773
      @therandommusicguy4773 Před 2 měsíci +11

      @@freebusycat We can see the progress coming already. That's what's scary about it lol. 10 years ago, AI was basically unspoken about. Now we are getting AI generated text, pictures, and even videos with a higher quality than ever before. Anyone who says it isn't coming is either blind or deluding themselves.

    • @freebusycat
      @freebusycat Před 2 měsíci

      @@therandommusicguy4773 nope, I work with AI and can tell, they're not truly intelligent like us that can reason, they simply look intelligent but they aren't, can you tell the difference? It's like a tr∆ns woman, it looks like a woman but it really isn't a real woman, it lacks essence, so we're very safe from a distopia for a long time

    • @Atlas99973
      @Atlas99973 Před 2 měsíci

      Love that for you 😅

  • @ChrisCrompton
    @ChrisCrompton Před 3 měsíci +108

    It's the transition period which wont be so rosy. There may be a 10+ year delay between massive job losses from AI efficiency and the government creating new economic policies which help pull these people out of poverty and into thriving meaning-based work.

    • @Tubes12AX7k
      @Tubes12AX7k Před 2 měsíci +37

      IF that actually happens. I have a feeling that the the wealthy and the connected are just going to look out for themselves.

    • @Marou446
      @Marou446 Před 2 měsíci +15

      @@Tubes12AX7kThey've already said, "You will live in the pods, eat the bugs, own nothing, and be happy." I believe them when they state their intentions.

    • @mitri5389
      @mitri5389 Před měsícem

      Yeah, maybe we can move to a 3 day workweek. Instead 😏. I honestly think full-scale automation of everything will be a hell, and by that, I think there will be a class system of elites, and a few of us slaves kept in a reserve. Why would the elite keep us? I'm pretty sure they would create their own utopia filled with natural environments like Adam and eves garden. they already have their own private and secluded environment away from us peasants as much as possible.

    • @angryman8823
      @angryman8823 Před měsícem

      Yeah, the government is all for helping people.

    • @EVOMAN14
      @EVOMAN14 Před 29 dny

      If the government have anything to do with this then it will be massively delayed, corrupt, expensive

  • @CodexPermutatio
    @CodexPermutatio Před 3 měsíci +153

    One thing is certain: The most important changes of the future (even just 20 years away) are already practically unimaginable.

    • @blackmamba___
      @blackmamba___ Před 3 měsíci +6

      Judging from the past, everything we have now will be more smarter, more efficient and more user friendly and some new inventions will come around that doesn’t necessarily reinvent the wheel, but makes it so that wheel is more convenient and abundant.

    • @sergefournier7744
      @sergefournier7744 Před 3 měsíci

      Do you see a lot of flying cars in your area? It's 20 year late...

    • @jarivuorinen3878
      @jarivuorinen3878 Před 3 měsíci +24

      @@sergefournier7744Flying car is stupid idea, it brings nothing of value on top of that small plane couldn't do. Inside a city no one will fly anything else than small drones, this is just simple safety issue. The issue persists even if we have foolproof AI controlling these planes or whatever flying cars, you'd need a support structure in case something heavy falls down. Well, now you have a road, or in better case, an overhead train or tram. In rural areas something like flying car could make sense, but it would be a compromise between a plane and a car. In rural areas you can have small airport and a car anyway. Or better yet, AI controlled public transit or taxi system.

    • @mnkwazi
      @mnkwazi Před 3 měsíci +8

      @@jarivuorinen3878 Exactly. The flying cars idea is nuts. LOL

    • @danielbrown001
      @danielbrown001 Před 3 měsíci +9

      @@sergefournier7744 Helicopters have been around almost 80 years at this point. Try again. They just aren’t licensed for mass use because of the destructive capacity.

  • @MH-kj9hh
    @MH-kj9hh Před 3 měsíci +44

    one point of contention, Capitalism is the individual/private ownership of capital, it doesn't just mean that capital exists - so talking about different ownership models is inherently talking about moving away from Capitalism.

    • @Shrouded_reaper
      @Shrouded_reaper Před 2 měsíci +10

      You think the people at the top will allow them to be replaced? I doubt this.

    • @AutiSam1974
      @AutiSam1974 Před měsícem +2

      agreed, eg to be flippant, USSR had abundant industrial plant and machinery and some pretty good tractors actually

    • @richardpalu3464
      @richardpalu3464 Před měsícem +2

      An area that's im interested in is the utilitilization of capital in the system.of the future.'Old money' or any wealth not used to the most productive outcomes will be a moral imperative. Wealth accumulation for its own sake will be as outdated as any token like gold.

    • @zachbohemian
      @zachbohemian Před měsícem +2

      ​@Shrouded_reaper it will happen if they like it or not. It's either done effortlessly or through a revolution

  • @DefenderX
    @DefenderX Před 3 měsíci +87

    I'm thinking a lot about what my daughters of 3 and 5 are going to do after they grow up and graduate. Seeing as I can't prevent them from living their lives, the only thing I wish for them is that they grow up with a healthy self esteem, self worth, and find their meaning.

    • @blackmamba___
      @blackmamba___ Před 3 měsíci +8

      Humans working with A.I will help them accomplish that.
      A.I companion
      A.I counselor
      A.I protector
      A.I physician
      A.I physiologist
      partnering with friends, family and other love ones will create the world you so much seek for them.

    • @betrayedcitizen5135
      @betrayedcitizen5135 Před 3 měsíci

      @@blackmamba___ ai has so much potential for good but It is still in the hands of humans. Much like a gun is just a tool, in the hands of a human it can be either beneficial or harmful.
      Capitalists fund technology. Never remove greed out of the equation.
      Abundance will be available but the price will be steep, as it always has been.

    • @Seehart
      @Seehart Před 3 měsíci +5

      Yes, I think they can have those things. They won't ever have jobs, in the sense we do, and likely immortal (unless we are extinct).

    • @betrayedcitizen5135
      @betrayedcitizen5135 Před 3 měsíci +1

      What on earth??
      What was wrong with my original comment that it gets deleted?

    • @pyerack
      @pyerack Před 2 měsíci +6

      @@blackmamba___I know this is meant to be optimistic but something about that sounds dystopic.

  • @bobjoe1522
    @bobjoe1522 Před 3 měsíci +63

    I think these type of videos are always your best Dave. They make me excited for the future

    • @ZenTheMC
      @ZenTheMC Před 3 měsíci +2

      So true! I couldn’t stop smiling the entire video.

    • @spiritualhammer392
      @spiritualhammer392 Před 28 dny

      Are you even paying attention to reality??? None of this is anything close to happening.

  • @Shrouded_reaper
    @Shrouded_reaper Před 2 měsíci +17

    This is insanely optimistic beyond belief. Do you really think these new technologies will be socialised and owned by many rather than the current power players moving in to own them as they develop and simply handing out the plebians a liveable allowance contingent on their good behaviour?

    • @Lerppunen
      @Lerppunen Před měsícem +1

      Not all AI will be owned by the current power players.

    • @wrath7879
      @wrath7879 Před měsícem +3

      If you actually listened to the video he states this is his best case scenario for humanities near future.

    • @enriquesauve1373
      @enriquesauve1373 Před 28 dny +5

      Its really not that optimistic. People have always underestimated how long it takes for technology to advance. As the supply of energy and information increases, so does its availability to the public.

    • @cmccoy793
      @cmccoy793 Před 8 dny

      Exactly, unless major steps are taken very soon / NOW, we're looking at Cyberpunk 2077 future or worse

  • @S8N4747
    @S8N4747 Před 2 měsíci +18

    OMG it is so good and so refreshing to hear someone competently verbalise the current conditions! When I've been telling my friends for the pas two years that we are interconnected cyborgs and they have been looking at me like crazy!!! Thank you.

  • @alphahurricane7957
    @alphahurricane7957 Před 3 měsíci +93

    20 year from now is 2040 not 2044.
    oh wait
    oh no

    • @blocksterpen3704
      @blocksterpen3704 Před 3 měsíci +7

      bro?

    • @Falkov
      @Falkov Před 3 měsíci +1

      @@blocksterpen3704 🤔

    • @user-uf2df6zf5w
      @user-uf2df6zf5w Před 2 měsíci +4

      Why is everyone saying this? I can barely remember what happened in 2020 it was so long ago.

    • @user-cm1mu6ce9y
      @user-cm1mu6ce9y Před 2 měsíci

      @@user-uf2df6zf5wi think there was a virus.. corinna? it did some damage to society
      anyway

    • @TheExodusLost
      @TheExodusLost Před 20 dny

      @@user-uf2df6zf5wthat’s why it gets fucking insane when you try to really make predictions on life in the future. It’s truly and scientifically cray

  • @samuelabraham1033
    @samuelabraham1033 Před 3 měsíci +12

    Amazing insight! Always look forward to your videos

  • @spaceadv6060
    @spaceadv6060 Před 3 měsíci +8

    Great content! Helps me look at things differently and think more long term. Thanks!

  • @soundfly76
    @soundfly76 Před 3 měsíci +6

    Just stumbled across your channel. Mind blown..! thanks so much ❤

  • @ModernTruthRevelation
    @ModernTruthRevelation Před 3 měsíci +7

    Dude, I love you! We are very similar in our orientation tho you are killing it in terms of execution and being a beacon of light to me as well. Thanks. I hope the highest meaning stands by you always. Muuuuuuuuuuuuuuch love, keep it up

  • @jmufkinr
    @jmufkinr Před 3 měsíci +22

    I love this kind of content

  • @nickbrigham8546
    @nickbrigham8546 Před 2 měsíci +5

    I never comment on CZcams channels but yours is easily my favorite. I love the topics, your explanations/views/reasoning, and the frequency with which you post. I bought physical copies of all of your books. Love your systems thinking series. I’m 32, just getting into machine learning with zero prior experience (I own a cannabis company and would love to focus on improving enterprise software in this industry), and really appreciate the videos and books.

  • @sirnicklas941
    @sirnicklas941 Před 3 měsíci +5

    I love the digital Superorganism idea! Please delve deeper into that in the future. You deliver amazing content David! :)

  • @TheREAL.BrandOnShow
    @TheREAL.BrandOnShow Před 3 měsíci +50

    WHERES THE SUIT DAVID OUT OF UNIFORM! Great Video :D

    • @DaveShap
      @DaveShap  Před 3 měsíci +30

      Captain's holiday

    • @shaan702
      @shaan702 Před 3 měsíci +5

      Yea it’s totally breaking my immersion 😆

    • @acllhes
      @acllhes Před 3 měsíci +1

      I was looking for this comment thank you

    • @PDXdjn
      @PDXdjn Před 2 měsíci

      @@DaveShap Could you pick me up a Horga’hn statue on your vacation?

  • @WeylandLabs
    @WeylandLabs Před 3 měsíci +98

    Your title missing Teleportation, Tractor Beams and Anti-matter Warp Drives ! 😂

    • @DaveShap
      @DaveShap  Před 3 měsíci +51

      BEAM ME UP, BARCLAY

    • @dannybitcoin116
      @dannybitcoin116 Před 3 měsíci +5

      Love Is the root force that drives us to even want or care about life…..first principles
      Or should I say first principal “love”

    • @playlistenthusiast
      @playlistenthusiast Před 3 měsíci +5

      As unlikely as it is, I really wish for teleportation. Pollution goes down, no more ugly parking lots, no need for as many roads as before, tax money get freed up for other things.

    • @robertlipka9541
      @robertlipka9541 Před 3 měsíci +1

      ​@@playlistenthusiastI do not. I have McCoy attitude to transporters x trillion. Wormholes, etc, fine, being literally evaporated and reassembled, no thanks... dumbest idea in Trek, right after the prime directive.

    • @playlistenthusiast
      @playlistenthusiast Před 3 měsíci +4

      @@robertlipka9541 Even if we only ever did non-living teleportation, it would be huge. I've always wondered about being disassembled though. I don't care so much about being zapped out of existence and replaced by a twin with my memories. I would be more concerned with small imperfections that build up with every reassembly, like a computer image being copied and pasted across the internet so many times it gets crusty, or a tape getting copied until it's too corrupted to view.

  • @crazyeightsable
    @crazyeightsable Před 3 měsíci +1

    very interesting as always.i love you're content. i learn so much.

  • @livewellherenow
    @livewellherenow Před 2 měsíci +2

    I’m thoroughly enjoying this channel, so thank you. It’s good that you pitched your other channels, because my interest is piqued regarding what else is processed by your mind.

  • @Kataroobungaloo
    @Kataroobungaloo Před 3 měsíci +3

    Holy smokes this video was so fascinating. Especially the last bit about digital super organism

  • @Will-kt5jk
    @Will-kt5jk Před 3 měsíci +15

    Minor correction on the fusion record:
    Highest NIF Q value I could find was 1.54, still a fair way from 2x, but at least 3 projects have hit Q= >1
    “For over two decades since 1997, the record for Q was held by JET at Q = 0.67. The record for Qext was held by JT-60, with Qext = 1.25, slightly besting JET's earlier Qext = 1.14. In December 2022, the National Ignition Facility reached Q = 1.54 with a 3.15 MJ output from a 2.05 MJ laser heating, which remains the record as of 2023.”

    • @Screw_This
      @Screw_This Před 3 měsíci +11

      Major misleading on the fusion record. The scientific Q does not account for laser efficiency, which is about 1%. We're not even close to net gain for the system.

    • @carlpanzram7081
      @carlpanzram7081 Před 2 měsíci

      ​@@Screw_This fusion energy pls

    • @bro918
      @bro918 Před 2 měsíci

      @@carlpanzram7081 20 years out

  • @andreaslukas2252
    @andreaslukas2252 Před měsícem +1

    This was one of the best videos I whatched this year. Truly inspiring!

  • @bastienfrancois9180
    @bastienfrancois9180 Před 3 měsíci +2

    profund, well thought, well researched. Superb.

  • @yannolaf
    @yannolaf Před 3 měsíci +6

    An exceptional thought experiment and analysis on what the future holds for us in 2044. Your deep dive into the potentials of AGI, Fusion Energy, Biotech, and Quantum Computing not only showcases a well-researched understanding but also a wise foresight into their possible impacts and milestones. It’s clear that a lot of effort went into dissecting how these technologies could shape our world in the next two decades. Your ability to weave these complex subjects into a coherent and engaging narrative is commendable. Great work on providing a balanced view on the optimistic and realistic outcomes of these technologies. Looking forward to more insightful content like this!

  • @codfather6583
    @codfather6583 Před 3 měsíci +55

    My newest favorite channel in this age of AI doomers. I'm such a sci-fi nerd and as a child i was a bit sad that i might not see the far-far future - I really have to struggle not sperging on people about AI. The future is going to be wild

    • @Vilkox
      @Vilkox Před 2 měsíci

      Same here. Have you seen “The Expanse”?

    • @zetaforever4953
      @zetaforever4953 Před 2 měsíci +7

      It already is wild. We live in a fairytale world. Not even the fairy tales of our ancestors imagined the world we live in today. But we don't feel it because of the hedonic treadmill. Everything seems normal after a while. And what used to seem miraculous yesterday now seems like the bare minimum. A sense of wonder isn't something you get from longevity or immortality. It's something we all have to cultivate in our current situation.
      That said, this video is ridiculously hyperbolic. It's like the people in the 80s who predicted flying cars and Mars travel by the new millennium.

    • @djangomarine6658
      @djangomarine6658 Před 2 měsíci +5

      I mean, all of this would be nice, but the reality is that most people will be dead broke and homeless by the time we make the transition. The rich will hoard, as usual. The governments will be too slow to react, as usual. Humans and society won't evolve fast enough. The transition will be extremely painful.

    • @pyerack
      @pyerack Před 2 měsíci +3

      @@djangomarine6658 I think the most telling thing is how it already costs an arm and a leg to pay medical bills and people here think that if AGI finds the formula for immortality they're just going to hand it over to all of us on a silver platter.

    • @CampingforCool41
      @CampingforCool41 Před měsícem

      @@zetaforever4953if this is a fairy tale it must be a Brothers Grimm version…

  • @SycamoreLaneMusic
    @SycamoreLaneMusic Před 3 měsíci +1

    Very interesting presentation David. It’s a great time to be alive.

  • @LoisSharbel
    @LoisSharbel Před 3 měsíci +1

    Excellent, AGAIN! Thanks!

  • @averyclarke2689
    @averyclarke2689 Před 3 měsíci +21

    I really enjoy your videos as a middle school English teacher without any background in science or technology. I'm ready for some big changes in our education system. Smaller class sizes and personalized instruction are at the top of my wishlist.

    • @blackmamba___
      @blackmamba___ Před 3 měsíci +4

      Individual A.I tutors to help supplement the shortage of teachers will go a long way.

    • @Falkov
      @Falkov Před 3 měsíci +1

      Teachers teaching classes..but why, even?

    • @carlpanzram7081
      @carlpanzram7081 Před 2 měsíci +3

      I've read a comment by another teacher that said that they already use AI to personalize questions and lessons to their children.
      So if someone is very interested in basketball, they use AI to make math lessons revolve around basketball.
      Your job will definitely change in the near future. Maybe 10 years from now your role will be much more social and pedagogical, than being the overworked tutor you probably are right now.
      Ai will become your permanent colleague, we will all use it to reflect and discuss our problems and situations.

  • @Aggie4life77
    @Aggie4life77 Před 2 měsíci +9

    Next 20 years won’t change as much as you think. In 2004 is was different from a gadget standpoint and social media, but most people lived pretty similar to now. I could be completely wrong depending on what AI does. Also electric cars will be the majority of cars on the road. Self driving would have improved significantly.

    • @yaboiflint5926
      @yaboiflint5926 Před měsícem +1

      Honestly I really hope that how’s it plays out because mannn this stuff puts a black pit in my stomach

    • @chrisphillippi6014
      @chrisphillippi6014 Před 15 dny +1

      The change is exponential- so hard to conceptualize and I would argue that people lived completely differently 20 years ago. There were no smartphones, no social media, barely any CZcams, no streaming apps, no Uber, no air Bnb, most people didn’t even use gps to navigate in a car.

  • @MahuyaGhosh
    @MahuyaGhosh Před 3 měsíci +1

    Brilliant video - loved it!

  • @a7xfanben
    @a7xfanben Před 3 měsíci +1

    Your videos give me hope!

  • @tylermiller1699
    @tylermiller1699 Před 2 měsíci +23

    People keep saying "the price of things will go down with the advent of ai, and robotics." Yet the exact opposite is the actual case. Who actually thinks that if a company figures out a way to save 1.00 on making a product, ANY of that extra savings is going to make it to to consumer? It NEVER does.

    • @Shrouded_reaper
      @Shrouded_reaper Před 2 měsíci +4

      Also as if the big power players aren't simply going to simply monopolise (or form international cartels, whatever) to cement their power using these new technologies. It's naïve in the extreme to think otherwise.

    • @kharikhy-ree2242
      @kharikhy-ree2242 Před 2 měsíci +6

      This is me watching the video. People said we'd have 4 day work weeks.... and we do for some. But that's because many jobs only allow part time. 😅

    • @rainieb.104
      @rainieb.104 Před 2 měsíci

      I was thinking just that, a lot of things in this video was almost too optimistic, if not borderline naive. Amazon may have implemented robotic automation in their warehouses and have less employees, but not in any way has it gotten cheaper, in fact its gotten more expensive, cant even do next day delivery now without having to meet a certain minimum order. And the same case will be in every other sector. These bastards do not think of anything else except their own greed.

    • @zayed4675
      @zayed4675 Před měsícem +9

      Wrong. Even the most famous monopoly in American history (Standard Oil under John Rockefeller) did exactly this. He dropped the price from 58 cents to 8 cents a gallon.
      It’s almost always true that price efficiencies are passed on the customer (as long as there is competition in the market).
      It’s crazy how people just have complete confidence in their ignorant opinions.

    • @bilbobluntz1946
      @bilbobluntz1946 Před měsícem +1

      @@zayed4675 it rly is embarrassing.

  • @earthlightsmusic2743
    @earthlightsmusic2743 Před 3 měsíci +6

    At last, optimism. ^___^

  • @tomwinston6758
    @tomwinston6758 Před 3 měsíci +1

    Great video, important information. Thanks

  • @samjenner7706
    @samjenner7706 Před 2 měsíci

    Great video man! Exciting and inspiring😎

  • @AustinThomasPhD
    @AustinThomasPhD Před 3 měsíci +5

    This was four years ago so it might have changed, but I went to some presentations by MSE's working at ITER (out of interest, not even close to my field) and it seems really clear that, in contrast to what you said, net gain is not really the main challenge. Everyone is confident ITER will make net gain, the biggest barrier to commercial fusion is that the materials necessary for sustained controlled fusion reactions do not currently exist. The walls of the TOKOMAK literally vaporize due to the heat even with the magnetic containment.

  • @jimt7045
    @jimt7045 Před 3 měsíci +4

    Are you still sticking with September this year for AGI Dave? You seem to have let it slip to 2026.

  • @markszve728
    @markszve728 Před měsícem

    great video! thanks for posting

  • @mth469
    @mth469 Před měsícem

    Excellent presentation sir.

  • @zeg2651
    @zeg2651 Před 3 měsíci +8

    What I find funny with regards to the definition of AGI and the capabilities of ChatGPT is that people say "Yeah, but ChatGPT doesn't always get it right first try." And I'm like "Did you ever do any task in your life?"😂 Completing a big complex task is usually an iterative process

    • @GrandpasPlace
      @GrandpasPlace Před měsícem

      Most people overestimate ChatGPT's abilities. From experience it has problems with even simple formulas such as asking it how to calculate the Mol of a 1l solution. It cant even get that right when you are giving it the answer.
      Asking it to write software is also a joke, I have yet to get anything out of it that did not require lots of debugging and most of it did not work at all.
      Dont get me wrong, ChatGPT is amazing for what it is but it is, at best, a general answer engine provided the answer is out there on the internet.

  • @wzsmart2890
    @wzsmart2890 Před 3 měsíci +13

    These green spaces that you’re talking about moving into are not “empty” they are full of life. Humans can’t keep treating the whole biosphere like a series of empty lots to be built on. We aren’t the only life forms on the planet. And longevity research will only compound our encroachment on wild spaces as population rises. These are challenges i would love for you to address in a future video as I think you have great insight. Great video per usual 🙏👌

  • @elirothblatt5602
    @elirothblatt5602 Před 3 měsíci +1

    Another great episode, thanks.

  • @justasrandom6609
    @justasrandom6609 Před 2 měsíci

    Love the visuals and insight!

  • @kharikhy-ree2242
    @kharikhy-ree2242 Před 2 měsíci +4

    I can't imagine this new world you speak of. For the last thousands of years for humans, life has been strife. I can't fathom the rich and powerful allowing advancement that helps everyone.

  • @antiprime4665
    @antiprime4665 Před 3 měsíci +3

    As a developer im ready to be automated so i can work on the projects i want to witht the help of a super ai

  • @sebarompetodo
    @sebarompetodo Před 2 měsíci

    First time watching, loved it, and subscribed 👌👌👌

  • @SanSanAAO
    @SanSanAAO Před 23 dny

    Thanks man, really cool video!

  • @arka7869
    @arka7869 Před 2 měsíci +3

    I like the statement "AI is principles driven, not profit driven", thumbs up for the video!

  • @skitzobunitostudios7427
    @skitzobunitostudios7427 Před 3 měsíci +3

    SOCIALISM: is perfect if it's not controlled by Humans. And only under hyper Abundance, and no scarcity of any kind. The ASI Government should first distribute all utilities for free as a 'Vote for Us' Strategy.

  • @Michibz57
    @Michibz57 Před 2 měsíci

    Great video, well done. Gave me a look at the whole thing

  • @user-xr4hx4hx9m
    @user-xr4hx4hx9m Před 3 měsíci +2

    Well thought out. I hope you're bang on. :)

  • @IllWish
    @IllWish Před 3 měsíci +9

    With respect, having watched all of your videos, it seems that your basic assumption is that a post labor economy will become a ASI Communist utopia. The downside of this that you never touch on is the high likelihood of an Oligarchy. Those with obscene amounts of money currently have an outsized influence on our society. They aren't just going to give up all their money and the privilege that it affords. So, with unlimited lifespan the most likely outcome is that they'll acquire more resources and influence, while the rest of society is on universal basic income. Also, with no jobs there will be no opportunity for upward mobility. The rich will continue to control all the levers of the economy and will be disincentivized to allow others to compete, and with ASI running everything there'll be little to no opportunity for disruption. You also make the assumption that everyone will have access to all these technologies, and they won't be priced out or restricted from having them due to legislation or some version of a caste system. For example, if you're already wealthy enough then lifespan extension is something that you would have access to, but for the plebs it's either restricted or not in your UBI budget. The result is that it's less likely that we'll get Star Trek, and more likely that we'll get Elysium.

    • @DaveShap
      @DaveShap  Před 3 měsíci

      Economic Agency for the proletariat

    • @therollerlollerman
      @therollerlollerman Před 3 měsíci +1

      The maintenance of oligarchy is not so much thanks to oligarchs themselves but its non-oligarch supporters who aspire to have a shot at joining the oligarchy someday. If AI makes such idea of “temporarily embarrassed billionaires” obsolete and crystallizes a stagnant oligarchy, there will be no support for it

    • @emilianohermosilla3996
      @emilianohermosilla3996 Před měsícem

      2nd amendment just entered the chat

  • @billcollins6894
    @billcollins6894 Před 3 měsíci +8

    I left AI research at Stanford last year. Of course predictions are not worth much but here is the background for mine:
    1) There are many large projects in play to completely decode RNA/DNA and how to design any conceivable living and non-living thing with it.
    2) Stanford believes they will achieve AGI in their labs this decade.
    3) University biology labs across the world have the ability to synthesize any RNA/DNA sequence today. Students have access to this.
    4) Once AI completely understands RNA/DNA and our immune systems, it is inevitable that someone will design a super virus looks innocuous until it is too late.
    5) Absolutely nothing can be done to stop this from happening. The only defense will be that other AI will be trying to stay ahead of the viruses that emerge.
    6) We will exist in a constant race to defend ourselves from insane people who want to cause harm. We will likely have to physically isolate clusters of society to protect the human race.

    • @Falkov
      @Falkov Před 3 měsíci +2

      A single person's potential destructive-viability looks to be multifariously exploding into the future.

    • @Shrouded_reaper
      @Shrouded_reaper Před 2 měsíci

      @@Falkov It's not just single people. You think nation states worldwide will just kneel and stop development of ever more horrifying weapons? LOL pull the other one mate.

    • @rainieb.104
      @rainieb.104 Před 2 měsíci

      Heavy on number 6) cause the way that we will also be threatened in terms of cybersecurity, which is already happening. Cyberattacks are on a crazy rise, with AI making it so so much worse. As well as criminals mimicking voices, faces, companies, identities, what have you. Many people forget the amount of insane people that exist in this world that can do serious harm.

    • @GrandpasPlace
      @GrandpasPlace Před měsícem +1

      Lol, You can but the equipment to do #3 on ebay right now. I have not run the numbers but I would bet the lab would cost less than 10k buying the items from ebay.
      4,5,and6 sound right.

  • @exitnightenterlight5327

    Great video! I subbed to hear more. You made alot of great points and i agreed with alot of what you said. It just seems way to optimistic at times.

  • @SolarTechFL
    @SolarTechFL Před 3 měsíci +1

    I really enjoy listening to you

  • @davedsilva
    @davedsilva Před 2 měsíci +1

    Appreciate the optimism. Fight for a good future.

  • @AboodCohen
    @AboodCohen Před 3 měsíci +8

    Thanks for sharing your thoughts David, very exciting future ahead 😊

  • @TaylorSwifty69
    @TaylorSwifty69 Před 2 měsíci

    Great video!! Subbed!

  • @chongsdong
    @chongsdong Před měsícem

    Your intelligence and optimism is an absolute breath of fresh air. Thank you and please keep making such thoughtful and thought provoking content.

  • @logansanoh
    @logansanoh Před 2 měsíci +1

    Really good!!

  • @omifam7714
    @omifam7714 Před 2 měsíci +1

    Hi David; love the insights. You seem so well read and clear minded. Could you please share your top 5 books?

  • @jonathanbickerton6645
    @jonathanbickerton6645 Před 3 měsíci +1

    Damn! Best video yet! ❤

  • @rubarb3618
    @rubarb3618 Před 2 měsíci +1

    Your optimistic view seriously gives me hope

  • @aidrivensuccess
    @aidrivensuccess Před měsícem

    This is an excellent video, David

  • @nickidaisydandelion4044
    @nickidaisydandelion4044 Před 2 měsíci

    Awesome. I fully agree with your future perspective and on AGI and ASI being free from selfishness. I very much look forward to them.

  • @swirlcrop
    @swirlcrop Před 3 měsíci +1

    This is a very good talk and I actually think that it is the first look I've seen beyond the event horizon of AI and environmental responsibility. This might be a breath of fresh air to the sci-fi literary genre too Thanks for posting your work.

  • @efwfew
    @efwfew Před 2 měsíci

    That was an awesome recommendation, great and thoughts provoking video. Ill admit i'm a pessimist person in general but i'm excited for the future

  • @chrisatkins6280
    @chrisatkins6280 Před měsícem

    Really enjoyed this. Fingers crossed 🤞

  • @user-kx7tg7vt6n
    @user-kx7tg7vt6n Před 3 měsíci

    Thanks David, really enjoyed this. I often talk about your work to others and recommend they watch some of your videos. Quickly wanted to point out a glitch between 27:09 - 27:25 which caused me to lose part of what you were saying - tiny thing but just thought it worth letting you know!

  • @user-xh9oq5zn9y
    @user-xh9oq5zn9y Před 2 měsíci

    great video!

  • @adonisvillain
    @adonisvillain Před 3 měsíci

    Yeah, that's content I've missed from summer. When I worked in the garden 🏡 and listen about future ❤

  • @stephenlangsl67
    @stephenlangsl67 Před 2 měsíci +1

    That little "tower house" with the solar panels on the roof looks like a makeshift shack but I still want to live there. Very well done. It would be pretty nice if I could afford to purchase a plot of land in an Ecovillage and build an exact replica of that house. I could just work in the Community garden.🙂

  • @richardstokstad9271
    @richardstokstad9271 Před měsícem

    Thank you David, for engaging with us to traverse into the near future...

  • @Jsmith1515
    @Jsmith1515 Před 2 měsíci +1

    I’m very excited by the potential for peace that comes with limitlessly abundant energy. What a blessing that would be

  • @visionseeker777
    @visionseeker777 Před 7 dny

    Great video. What a time to be alive 🤩

  • @gregoriopalofuego9808
    @gregoriopalofuego9808 Před 2 měsíci +2

    How do you make a hormone?
    "Don't pay her."

  • @Johnnyvo30
    @Johnnyvo30 Před měsícem

    I very much appreciate this video. I’ve been feeling lost. Wondering how I would find my place in the 4th revolution and best prepare to take advantage.
    You’ve given me a direction to focus my attention and effort. Thank you

  • @jackjetpilot
    @jackjetpilot Před 3 měsíci +1

    Man, I love this guy!

  • @theo.outofthebox
    @theo.outofthebox Před 14 dny

    These ideas are quite exciting. I'm open to see the changes.

  • @wrath7879
    @wrath7879 Před měsícem

    Great video.

  • @ROBERTDAVis2271
    @ROBERTDAVis2271 Před 2 měsíci

    Cool video 👍🏿

  • @ollietipper
    @ollietipper Před 2 měsíci

    When I see videos like this one, I can’t help but get so incredibly excited about the possibilities of what’s to come. It gives me so much hope and joy that maybe everything really will work out in this Utopic way. I recently turned 21 and space exploration has always been something I’ve really wanted to be a part of. Sometimes I feel I was born a little too early and perhaps I won’t get the opportunity to traverse the stars. Videos like this give me hope that maybe just maybe I’ll be able to go out and see what this universe has to offer one day. Thankyou for giving me hope.

  • @RichardWilliamLawson
    @RichardWilliamLawson Před 3 měsíci +1

    Thanks!

  • @gunnarehn7066
    @gunnarehn7066 Před měsícem

    David, You’ve got it! 45 years of thinking, reading and reflecting -since I first saw the Apple II, TRS80 & Commodore Pet at CES Chicago 1978-on where Digital Integration will take us-and what it really means- I have arrived exactly at some of the same conclusions , whose Totality you so beautifully summarize in your amazingly informed/informative unique presentation. Thank You!

  • @betheprotag
    @betheprotag Před 2 měsíci

    Your optimism in this current era is exactly what I need to hear. Here’s to shrinking everyone’s heads to a similar size for the progression of mankind.

  • @antmass3
    @antmass3 Před 3 měsíci

    Dave, I think the book you were trying to recall was The Lights in the Tunnel, by Martin Ford. Excellent book.

  • @Reflekt0r
    @Reflekt0r Před 17 dny

    I slightly miss these focused videos though I do like your forest ruminations too.

  • @belindacarter6872
    @belindacarter6872 Před měsícem

    Love the optimism - so yes, it has VALUE!! We need to large scale orient toward the silver linings in all of this - Thx!

  • @mr.wonder8168
    @mr.wonder8168 Před 3 měsíci

    Thanks David🖖☮️

  • @Godspeedysick
    @Godspeedysick Před 3 měsíci +1

    Boy o boy, your optimism is through the roof. 😆🙈

  • @samsters25
    @samsters25 Před měsícem

    Great video using an educated approach relative to current science and predictions. No hype, no scare tactics. Just a nicely painted picture of what our future could potentially look like very soon. Thanks!

  • @jogoeire
    @jogoeire Před 3 měsíci

    Solid content

  • @lonridgway2728
    @lonridgway2728 Před 2 měsíci

    very interesting thought experiment

  • @lucymemow
    @lucymemow Před měsícem

    Yall are incredibly optimistic. I’m not as much, though it’s nice to see for a change.

  • @sabhighton
    @sabhighton Před 3 měsíci +14

    I ran a poll with my high school STEM peers and most said they are not worried about AI changing their career plans. They seem secure but time will tell!

    • @strictnonconformist7369
      @strictnonconformist7369 Před 3 měsíci +10

      That suggests to me they think they understand so much more than they do.
      There's a reason they're in school 🤣🤣🤣
      One of the biggest worries I have at 52 is the fact that beyond the issue of all the training data used thus far being from humans from who-knows-where and with who-knows-what-views-that-conflict even if all well-intentioned, there's also the societal changes involving humans that are prone to humans being humans and all that entails: there will invariably be those that insist "What we're doing is for your own good, we know better than you!" with the understanding that in practice, the more power such people have, the more harm they cause.
      Let's not even calculate just how quickly this will all likely transpire: the transition to computers being common in the workplace took several years. Most people now are likely to have more than one computer device, each. I'd need to stop and think how many I have... not all are actively used. The on-ramp to using AI is so much absurdly cheaper than the transition to computers being so common, in large part because of the computers being so common.

    • @blackmamba___
      @blackmamba___ Před 3 měsíci +10

      I would only be worried if there was only one A.I being developed to control all things.
      It’s not Ai that I fear anyway, its humans I fear whenever they feel threatened.

    • @macmcleod1188
      @macmcleod1188 Před 3 měsíci +2

      Probably time to learn about the Dunning-Krueger effect....

    • @Dygit
      @Dygit Před 3 měsíci +2

      @@blackmamba___ couldn’t agree more with this sentiment

    • @susanlippy1009
      @susanlippy1009 Před 3 měsíci +2

      What was the reason given for not being concerned? Simply " feeling" something isn't an issue is not relevant. A pointless pole. Provides no information of value. Why are they not concerned? What are they bading that upon? Is there a scenario they would be concerned? Currently we look and see technology being used to augment people vs replacing people in many circumstances but in fact robotics have stolen as many factory jobs as offshoring. How many old fashioned secretarial jobs are gone? There is no guarantees either side of the isle.