MIT Has Predicted that Society Will Collapse in 2040 | Economics Explained
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- Äas pĆidĂĄn 25. 11. 2021
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the add plugs are getting better!
Well that kind of sucks
I'm calling bs, on all of it.
Doesnt take into account Risk of WAR and how countries would purposefully manipulate economies and industrial output to Crash societies (On Purpose) on an attempt to prevent future wars. (Look to China's current economic and societal collapse, which is both internally engineered by accident aka Communist Dictator/internal culture of corruption,... to outside Engineering from worlds countries removing businesses and manufacturing from China to other countries.) recent example (India Confiscated illegal Pakistan Nuclear Material shipment to China causing China to alter its Nuclear policy as it no longer has enough nuclear material for producing the nuclear weapons it was trying to threaten other countries with) While there is going to be (LOCAL) societal collapse and/or restructuring. it by far appears to be due to manipulation for specific end goals not by any lack of resources or too much of anything else.
Maybe electing people who wonât be alive for societyâs collapse isnât such a bright idea
So true
Corrupt career politicians like Biden have been pushing socialist policies their entire careers
Good luck with that. They are in control
@@DigitalDissident LOL apparently you don't know what socialism is then. Biden has been a centrist his whole career - firmly in the neoliberal camp like all politicians.
Let's elect kindergarteners
Saying "oh hey society is predicted to collapse in 18 years" and following it up with "the first 1000 fans to sign up with this link get a free month of skillshare!" is some disconnected dystopian ish.
Gotta eat in the meantime.
@@JBinFL Considering CZcams to be a job is hilarious.
@@meh3247 and yet here we are
@@meh3247 I donât know man thereâs plenty of people who thrive on CZcams. Fastest way to become a millionaire
@@kays8976 fastest â safest
"The irony that I am part of the problem. But here ya go, have an ad..." đ most excellent!!! Perfectly cheeky!
he's an Aussie overall... đ€Ł
*THIS VIDEO IS A COMPLETE WASTE OF YOUR TIME*
Living through the birth of internet
Living through the birth of social media
Living through the acceleration of technology
Living through the societal collapse
Paranoia IS an adorable thing, eh?
Hey guys. If we work really hard, we can achieve that goal by 2030
Throw a brick though a window.
Assassinate a politician.
It's the little, everyday things you can do to help bring this world crumbling down.
Thats the spirit đȘ
@@TheOpalHammer Wouldn't killing the right politicians halt the process of collapse?
#stretchgoals
"Gotta pump those numbers up. Those are rookie numbers in this racket. We can destroy the world NEXT YEAR!"
"So basically yeah the world is ending. Sponsored by Skillshare!"
This world has literally become a parody of itself at this point
Carl's Jr.
F*ck you! I'm eating!
Shut up, I'm mending
Truth.
@Sueadnecsa they probably have nothing to do with that
"Time to abandon ship" - General Grievous
Here is the scary part that isnt talked about. When people refer to past civilizations collapsing, they are refering to a small part of the world, that is relatively isolated from other civilizations. Islotation meaning that they dont rely on other civilizations and empires to survive, and vice versa. Nowadays, when we talk about civilization collapsing, we are referring to a huge portion of the world collapsing, something that we have never seen before.
Well, there is the catastrophic collapse at the end of the Bronze age 3000 years ago, where a whole host of civilizations of the time all but ceased to exist entirely, not even leaving behind much record that they were there. The Mediterranean and what we now call the middle east were absolutely wrecked.
The scary part is believing in any of this in the first place
Atlantis!
STOKING THE PARANOIA MACHINE! YOU GO GIRL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
@@MeargleSchmeargle Keep up the paranoia, cuz kids are as bored as you, Dude?
While "The Limits to Growth" did present a scenario in which global societal collapse could occur around 2040, it's essential to understand that this was just one of many potential outcomes modeled in the report. It wasn't a definitive prediction. Moreover, the intent of the study was more to stimulate thought and discussion about sustainable growth than to make precise forecasts.
Very sound commentary. But a part of me hopes it will all end in 2040 (even before then)
Exactly. Right now there are only a few things in modern society that we dont have alternatives for.
@@schooldunce6810 strange to be offended by that comment :/
â@schooldunce6810 then you can look forward to living in the dark ages. Again! đ đ€š
â@schooldunce6810 propaganda. West is fine and mostly shielded from climate change
"This video is brought to you by Skill, Share. Thanks to SkillShare you can [learn all of these cool things] which will be useless by 2040 according to MIT"
Well learning carpeting, getting little garden to grow own food and getting some shooting courses will make your life much easier in the worst case scenario. Add fishing and hunting and you are more prepared than 80% of European population.
@@MrGrizzzlik Learn to make your own EMPs and sword smithing to build essential weapons during tough times, and with my special code, get 70% off a 3 month philosophy course to prepare for an upcoming existential crisis.
what? skillshare has to be the perfect sponsor for this. theres probably courses on sustaining an own garden, repairing cars, electrical repairs, carpentry, first-aid, how to safely deliver babies, learning chinese....
@@TheSh000ter learning chinese đ
Eh, I bet there are plenty of foraging guides and all sorts of off the grid tutorials on there. Better pick up those skills sooner than later! - THE END IS NIGH!
MIT couldnât even predict that their janitor was a genius, so my confidence is pretty minimal.
Haha, global famine and the collapse of society as we know it is Hilarious đ
@@uncannyvalley2350 it is, and im tired of pretending it not. đ„Č
@@uncannyvalley2350 meaning? can u expand?
We're you see funn I see and arrow pointing to the end times
Your thinking of a movie called good will hunting. Itâs fictional. I canât believe how stupid people are. I really hope an extinction event happens soon. I really really do.
Two years later and things are only worse... I think a collapse is inevitable.
You speak with no hope, we are more than just humans we are a miracle of consciousness zoom out and seek survival
@@Frrolon , yeah well, 40 years of living and things have only gotten worse and worse and the very rational questions I had as a child as to WHY any of this happens in the first place have never been answered...
Humanity is đź so yeah, I have no hope.
The few always ruin it for the many.
@@Frrolon Which is exactly what the Bible predicted my friend. But take hope in Jesus. He's your only hope.
Wow, your paranoia desrves a visit to the psychologist on your birthday to explain that everything is fine, but you have been binge-watching sensationalism, paranoia and disinformation. So your views are negative and depressing.
@@Frrolon Or, pay one hundred dollars to a psychologist and get your confidence back. Cutting back on binge-watching sensational, paranoid disinformation also helps, Dude.
de Toqueville was perhaps the first who looked at many examples to determine common factors in collapse and timescales. They were: Diversion of resources held for the common good to self interested leaders/ elites, increasing bureaucracy/complexity, loss of legitimacy of political leadership, and finally a catalysing challenge (climatic, famine, pandemic, immigration, war). 300 years was the longest time before collapse by early-mid 19th century.
300 years? Didn't the Roman empire exist for like well ovr a thousand?
â@@TomoHawKzZIt existed, but collapsed quite a few times till it basically ended up as a footnote in Italian (and wider European) history - and that's if you count the Holy Roman Empire as the Roman Empire.
@@Cabolt44 The Western empire collapsed. The Byzantine half soldiered on and almost reconquered the lost territory until derailed by a combination of plague and invasion on multiple fronts. They were still a major power until 1204 and the last emperor was deposed in 1453.
âŠThatâs scary to hear
â@@Cabolt44Footnote? You are not informed.
"Here you go, have an ad."
"What a good little consumer you are."
I died a little.
Hes a savage for saying that lol
I sat through both ads and was praised!
@Dino Sauro shhhhh đ€«
Right when he finished saying âadâ I got an adâŠ
I want my fourth wall back đ€Ł
âWhen the end of the world comes, I want to be in Kentucky, because everything there happens 20 years after it happens anywhere else.â - Mark Twain
Or be in New Zealand as people visiting it say it's like it's still in the 1970s but with internet. Never been more grateful for coming from a "backwards" country. đ
Man I loved nz. Granted it was as a long term tourist... not a resident...but it's great imagining the dream image is as I want to believe
Guess im good for another 20 years
Better in Kamchatka, they just never receive the news, they still think we are Empire.
I can live with that.
Just stumbled on this today - thanks for an interesting video. I used to do systems dynamics programming back in the 1980s-90s (I'm that old!) using a program called LISP, and we would do Monte-Carlo type repetitions (changing the input paremeters slightly many times, either to simulate some statistical distribution or on a planned theoretical basis) just like this study did (which I have NOT read or studied). Most people probably arenât familiar with SD but itâs fairly easy to explain - think of a diagram with some variables in it, with lines with arrows following from one to another, where every variable has things it influences and things that are influencing it. There are a few things worth considering. First - obviously - is the model itself, barring some kind of external unmodeled shock, like a nuclear war. Also, the variables included, and how to measure them, as well as each oneâs SD relationship with other variables (for example population, which is (relatively) fairly simple - how is it defined (including age demographics, gender distribution, health, education, etc?), how those are measured (people living, healthy people living, some statistical distribution of them, etc?), and what other measured variables are influenced by each, as well as what variables each influences (years of productive work, innovative capabilities, urban versus rural living, and so forth). Well, it can get very complicated and the theoretical SD models that preceed the programming often have mini-models embedded inside them. Sadly, SD models inevitably wind out to some steady state-stasis or go wildly out of control, both of which are outcomes are intuitively not very likely - you just have to follow the models out far enough to see this (apparently beyond 2040 for this one). The apex of SD modeling popularity was in the 1980s when we imagined that we were smart enough to capture enough variables and their relationships to actually understand how things would go. Time has largely shown that not to be the case. SD models are interesting, but probably mainly not for predicting how things will turn out but in thinking about the form of the model and - as we learn and observe - refining the model over time in understanding how things affect one-another. Itâs VERY rare for a systems dynamics model to be able to make good predictions about the âfutureâ (although as I say I donât know this one specifically.) Perhaps modern society WILL collapse in 2040, but if it does, I suspect it will be for reasons aside from those of this SD model.
UN is projecting europe's population peaks between 2025-2030, and somewhat rapidly declines afterwards. There's little in UN projections suggesting a mass european migration anywhere, as almost all the top tier countries have similar UN projections. The only ones who didn't was Britain and USA, shown to be "leveling off" instead.
Your paranoia frightens kids. Time for a psychologist, Dude! How far gone are you? Let's chat!
It will teach everyone a life lesson that excessive consumerism, continuing to elect corrupt and decrepit politicians, and widespread use of monoculture farming and other unsustainable habits by other industries is the ultimate bane triangle of humanity.
The biggest problem with humanity is the fact that we typically tend to be more reactive then proactive we wait until the last minute to fix big problems that could have been solved a long time ago
Sounds like me with any homework/chore
Its called money ! everything costs money and no one wants to spend it on anything other than their own needs.
umm no, that's not the biggest problem with humanity
@@AGhostInTheMachine pretty much is. For example. We could solve 99% of conflict, world hunger and homelessness right now. But because people are too stuck in their own bs bubble they can't put their useless petty issues with others aside and are hellbent on servicing nothing but their own needs.
Global warming could have been addressed 60+years ago so that we wouldn't even have to worry at this point. Instead we ignored it and now we are in a crisis. Humans are stooopid
@@TempoTrack umm no, pretty much isn't
Never let anyone make a decision if they won't personally suffer for being wrong.
Sadly, sticking Ukrainian refugees into office isn't feasible otherwise this really would work.
What do you suggest? Only elect inexperienced 30 year olds for important government positions? Grow up, the world doesn't owe you a thing
â@@2ubix Who says those 70 year olds are experienced? Age does not equal experience at all. Telling someone to grow up for pointing out an obvious issue is stupid. Truth is we need a variation of ages in the government to represent all of us, that's the only way I see this system working in young people's favor as well as old.
@@janterri3539 maybe tens of years of experience in politics? Stop trying to play devils advocate to support an idealistic viewpoint. I bet you are the kind of person who complains about the existence of billionaires.
@@2ubix so there arent capable leaders under 60? why do you want senile leaders who would most likely die before they suffer from their wrong decisions and cant even think properly
Keep up the amazing work mate! I will continue to spread the word
Wow what a motivating video to see as I browse through youtube on a break from figuring out what I want to do in the future
My experience is that there's never been a group of science types as bad at prediction as economists.
Aside from epidemiologists... obviously!
Really stupid statement. At least in my country there is an economist/businessman who almost always right about what will be happening with the country in the foreseeable future. His predictions are 70%+ are on point.
@@1LERS1 what's his name?
@@lyfe918 Dmitriy Potapenko.
Economists are not science types. They do no science. They don't even do math. They do alternate history.
This has happened in New Zealand. A quarter of the population in NZ are elderly, and young people keep leaving due to the high stress of paying taxes to fund so many retired people, who insultingly own the rental property they live in because young people can't afford a house due to the high taxes and low wages they earn.
Sounds like boomers are the same everywhere.
Yeah, us boomers are bastards.
Don't forget your batshit crazy politicans.
1/4 of the pop is nothing compared to the rest of the world. Come to Europe mate, we're surrounded by angry, well-off boomers who are even more entitled than gen z. Having lived in the USA for 5, then 13yrs in Germany (still here), the economic decline and high cost of living is becoming more profound since 2015's refugee crisis. One can feel the tense atmosphere now and everything and everyone feels like they're reaching their breaking point really really quickly. I. Grateful that I have chosen not to have children, because I fear that they may not have a safe and happy future.
So yeah,The young kiwis will return home once they realise how lucky NZ has it compared to everywhere else.. đ
Sounds like a place I want to live, young people leaving and nice older people to actually socialize with
Really need this advanced information of world economy well explained thanks for putting things in a great potential Way.
Why did past civilizations collapse... Perhaps they debated pronouns instead of figuring out the housing crisis and inflation.
Only true paranoids know. During Covid they helped suicides..............................
The way Covid was handled is a good insight as to how screwed we are if something even more serious comes
If smallpox ever got out about half the human race would be gone in a couple of years, even though we have a vaccine.
If it was something that has high chance of killing you people would protect themselves. People understated covid
The way we handled covid is underrated. We were thrown an unexpected curveball, and we adapted. That's what humans are good at, adapting.
it's not about covid. it's the governments response to it, with all there planned economic destruction and spewing divisive propaganda and manipulating the heard
@@mrtony80 Underrated you say? Explain this.
"Why get hostile when you can get rich?" is literally the founding principle of the EU.
Considering how horrific WW2 was--and all the *other* warring that happened in Europe during the middle ages, that's probably a good idea.
Technically, it was more like:
Germany: Itâs cold winter and we are freezing, we need to increase coal production.
France: Wait just a minute, coal is strategic material used in war. I donât feel comfortable with you having more coal.
Germany: But winter.
France: Tell you what, we make organization where we can share and more importantly track every coal and steel production so we can keep and eye, I mean organize better distribution for European industries.
Germany: Sure.
France: And lets make one for nuclear energy. So we can keep track of nuclear material and make sure itâs used for peaceful purposes.
Germany: I wasnât going to ⊠aah, sure.
@@stafer3 ...good sarcasm...laconically speaking đđ
@@stafer3 "peaceful purposes", lets go with Uranium Breeder reactors instead... Yeah, I see it, very clear.
@@stafer3 except ... the EU is born out of the benelux, the union of Belgium, the Neherlands and Luxembourg
which is why Brussels is still the capital of Europe, not Berlin
Every generation blames the one before for their problems. Eventually you realize that it does nothing beneficial and begin to work them out for yourselves.
In aviation, we are trained to guard against 'excessive professional courtesy.' This principle encourages individuals of lower rank to speak up if they observe a mistake being made, regardless of the person's seniority, age, or level of experience. As a flight crew, our survival hinges on the practice of assertive communication.
It is crucial that we pass down this mindset to the next generation to prevent them from being trapped in the same ineffective cycle that has hindered us. Striking the right balance is key - showing enough respect to be heard, while being articulate enough to persuade older, more established individuals who may be hesitant to relinquish power and status. As a community, if we can collectively recognize that we are pioneering a societal landscape unlike any before, we must embrace the realization that navigating this evolving dynamic is a continuous learning journey. None of us holds all the solutions, despite some feigning otherwise.
I love your videos, however there is one thing that keeps bugging me; I've noticed you don't use stippled lines for the horizontal plane when dealing with the XY graphs. is it possible for future endeavours to make this change? :D
"History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes"
- Mark Twain
"People who quote dead people aren't as clever as they think they are"
- Me
Wow, what a smart guy. He posted a quote, that`s barely related to the content of the video.
it's like poetry
Every time i see this quote on the internet I can't help but roll my eyes
@@grigorirasputin4871 the video is about economical collapse is it not?
I believe we can not only achieve this ahead of schedule, but also hit all four collapses: political, social, environmental, AND economic. Boom, extra credit.
nothing is collapsing yet on an international scale. I do think we are heading for crisis, but not world ending
declining birth rates in all but third world countries also something to note
@@calanjameshunt huh? third world countries dont use birth control. cost of living is too high to have many children.
@@calanjameshunt actually it's opposite..birth rate is less in developed countries due to advanced mentality and high education... underdeveloped countries breed like animals despite their poverty and that's why they never escape poverty
@@13thmistral this aged like milk
Very good video, it has really helped me, it is very good to know about the se topics, thank you very much
A weak dollar can signal an economic downturn, making me to ponder on what are the best possible ways to hedge against inflation, and I've overheard people say inflation is a money-eater thus worried about my savings around $200k.
The stock market is a way to hedge against inflation. Most notably amidst recession, investors need to understand where and how to allocate funds to hedge against inflation and still make profits.
in my opinion, the impact of the rise or fall of the U.S. dollar on investments is multi-faceted but learning how to grow your money has never been easier than now that you can explore and experience a truly diverse marketplace passively by using a well-performing portfolio-advisor.
@@mayacho4910 The stock market is down 20%. Keeping my money in the bank could be no good but investing is riskier, I wish to find better value deals as asset prices keep decreasing but lack the skillset, mind if I look up your advisor? I admit this is the only way for amateurs like myself.
@@stellamoore720'BRIDGET MARY TUROW"
@@mayacho4910 I just found the professionalâs web page and have already written her, thanks.
There's a book called Fates Of Empires by Sir John Glubb in which he studied lots of failed societies, and found a pattern. We're just following along the cycle he discovered. One reason he mentions for this that the OP didn't mention....was that history is not truthfully taught. Since we constantly revise history, we can't escape the cycle.
History is meant to be revised as new facts are discovered, like a stash of letters from the civil war. However, if what you're teaching is mythology over history, therein lies the problem. Most Americans believe the mythology of their country but have a terrible understanding of what actually has happened.
@matt greene. So true. History that is taught, is nothing more than the beliefs and opinions of the victor, underpinned with an enormous serving of ego.
Is the Roman Empire a failed society just because it turned into many different countries?
@@wesswise28 Technically, yes. It fell apart. The end of every society is a good or bad thing, depending on whether you believed in that society, or not.
MIT already predicted in 1972, in the Meadows report, the collapse for 2000. And nothing happened, no famines as they claimed, pollution decreased in developed countries, etc...
I personally think that the collapse is more probable because we are more of a reactive society that waits till the last second to do something rather than being proactive. Political corruption and corporate wonât be going away and people are resistant to change, America is very guilty of that. The people who could have the power to make major decisions for the better arenât really doing much and I feel as though we arenât changing fast enough.
Being proactive is cool until deranged psychopaths get their turns with the controls.. or have had the controls for 100+ years.. or will continue having the controls..
why does it say reply- but no replies? whose censoring that.
We gotta take command of our corners by being exceptional and strong for any hope of our futures guys.
Bad times strong men, good times weak men and cycle.
We're sitting through the weak leadership, good luck team.
actually rapid change is what has caused empires to crash. the founding fathers knew this and designed our government so that they could not change too much too fast.
Collapse won't happen. :3
That ad placement was hilarious! Can't even be mad about that.
Excellent video Mate and great job learning to sketch. đ
Social Collapse doesn't always mean post apocalyptic dystopia but rather that the currents social structures will either be incredibly inefficient or completely reformed
True, but I wouldn't bet money on the new social structure being good, especially when we're destroying the natural environment we depend on, and are depleting our resources.
@@politicallyambiguous8424 true too
@politicallyambiguous8424 also, especially when the people in charge of developing the new social structure dress like Emperor Palpatine and say things like, "You will own nothing, and you will be happy." Has 1984 been removed from the required reading?
@@Oklahomeless While I like the book 1984, I doubt our future dystopia will have much in common with Oceana except for mass surveillance and poverty. I think the future will be more like Elysium, with a capitalist elite owning everything whilst we own nothing.
I think a neoliberal dystopia is more likely in our current world than a Stalinist one.
We do not have to comply but we need a parallel economy and the ability to stand up together and say no to the Agenda
Ahead of schedule, well done team đđđŒ
Soylent Green anyone ?
@@g.m.5395 đ
@@iggiewalsh2237
Thanks Iggie đđđâșïž
Getting the job done.
đ€Ł
My favorite part: "Here you go, have an ad. What a good little consumer you are". I haven't laughed about an ad break till now.
@EconomicExplained
I liked the "apartment vs. castle" statement. I visited the main ruins of a castle in Germany and, until the guide mentioned it, it never occurred to me just how COLD those joints got in the winter...
Yeah, the literally put fire in a pan under the blankets with them lolzzz
@@ezicarus8216 Wow, thank you for all that...genius that I am, some things never occur to me, LOL.
@@jimibones178 No with them, before going to bed, otherwise your risk burning your feet and possibly the bed:)
@@Falsk No, no, they used hot stones in the pans instead of fire to avoid accidentally burning down the bed even the castle. The stones ( when cooled off) could be used to defend the castle from the guys freezing outside.đ
@@crazyedo9979 well that is true concerning the pans, but they are also very hot, not something you want in your bed when you don't have control of your body:)
The worst attitudes to develop from this are: 1. It's no problem, so let's continue the status quo and 2. we're already perma-fucked, so let's continue the status quo.
Exactly. Humanity is a problem solving creature. They're at their absolute worst when they ignore their issues whether through willful ignorance or lazy nihilism. I work in medicine and I hate when people say, "blank has no cure." Bullshit, everything has a cure. We just haven't discovered or invented it yet. People need to mobilize faster, though. Fixing problems after they're in the critical stage causes so much damage that can be prevented by fixing them now.
No one wants to live in a real life version of The Road..
@@retrofunilike80sretro68 No, and unfortunately that is where the politicians are taking us.
Nah, the worst attitude is "the solution is to concentrate power even more."
One thing "experts" are pretty consistent at is being terrible at predicting long term changes. Everyone thought that the advent of industrialized warfare in the late 1800s and early 1900s made war between major powers too expensive and too deadly to actually happen large scale. Everyone thought that the destruction of societies, economies, and massive death toll of WW1 would make another war impossible. Everyone thought the development of nuclear weapons would make war impractical after WW2 since a conflict could quickly spiral until all life on earth would get wiped out and wed enter a new era of peace as large militaries became useless when 1 nuke could wipe an entire fleet, army, or city off a map. eve reyone thought the USSR was too big, too powerful, and too interconnected to ever collapse. Everyone thought Japans explosive growth would lead to them taking over the world and surpassing even America on the world stage. Everyone thought that after India gained independence they'd join the ranks of the USSR and US as a global superpower and lead the "third world" would would be a 3rd global empire like Allies or the communist world. Even as recently as the 90s many people thought that Germany would become a world power and start expanding their power just like before WW1 and WW2 into a 4th reich if East and West Germany reunited.
It's called greed and corruption issues!! Soon the whole world will feel the down fall caused by the same thing!!
Cuz your paranoia is first rate full-blooded paranoia! YOU GO GIRL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
"Why get hostile, when you can get rich!" I need that on a Tee.
Once you go down that rabbit hole of paranoia, your coworkers will think you are creepy and chicks will avoid you. Let's chat!
âItâs easier to imagine the end of the world than the end of capitalism.â Mark Fisher
Whoa, deep vibe brahhhh
Yes, because capitalism is a natural system that arises in every society regardless of government.
Even in authoritarian communist countries, black markets naturally develop.
As long as there are humans, there will be capitalism.
no doubt in my mind that capital owners would rather see the world end than have to work
@@mitch14311 what do you own? Car, house, ect. Live your philosophy send it all to me. Venmo me all your money.
@@RealDealTexas might want to brush up on the difference between private property and personal property.
For anyone worried about this report, please keep in mind that data models cant even predict a days worth of weather accurately. Society is a much more complex model with so many moving parts that are influenced by human emotions (unlike the weather). As someone who works in data science, I highly suggest you to take any long term prediction with a grain of salt. We make very very specific data models to price products based on a small set of data points and most of them blow up as soon as they come into contact with real world data. Alarmism sells, nobody would care about a report which doesn't predict a catastrophe.
Yes!
Predicting anything is hard, and often predictions fail miserably
Sorry to rain on your parade but Limits to Growth the 30 year update clearly shows, that we have been very closely following the standard run scenario. I understand, that in 1972 you could be sceptical of LtG. How anyone today can not see how dangerously accurate the scenarios shown in the model are, is beyond me.
Forget your computer models. Common sense and simple observation show this is already happening. It's a forrest/trees thing. BTW: I majored in CS, but grew up in a very real world.
good comment. I agree 100% with the points you made. Alarmism does sell.
I think one factor that plays a key role is education, how informed and how much knowledge a civilization possesss is key to innovation and decisions for the other factors mentioned
Will come back to this video in 2040. See you then.
Wait, paranoia demands blood, Dude. During Covid they spread fear. How can you leave before you become suicidal and rely on them? R U made of steel? What's your secret?
Does Anyone Else Feel Like Everything Has Changed?
There is also this feeling that the whole world is holding it's breath. Almost as though we are all waiting for some catalyst or sign or event that puts an end to this feeling of being put on hold. This vague unexplained unease.
Everyone is disconnected from each other and thereâs no longer any respect or tolerance for each other. No one likes to communicate in person anymore and everyone does things only for money rather than for purpose and meaning. We also have a loneliness epidemic.
Itâs the logical progression of individualism + capitalism
I live in Japan and itâs easier to live a simpler life here. Walkable mixed-zoned cities, affordable prices, convenient systems, updated maintained infrastructure, and best of all: community-centric society. People are so nice to each other, itâs unbelievable. Finland and Japan even has the same suicide rate. Finland, the happiest nation on Earth!
Exactly what I've been thinking since last summer
Get off the internet
@@joriankell1983 on it, following in Uncle Ted's and Pentti Linkola's footsteps.
Useful information begins at 11:58
You're welcome
Thanks đŻ
Thanks mate. I'll be almost 80 so... đ€·ââ
Thanks
Arigato
If I could I would give you 1000 thumbs up! Thx a lot m8!
12:56 actually no - less demand for cars = less demand for workers making them = more people fired from their jobs. Then the knock-down effect is all the suppliers have to downscale and even taxi drivers, van drivers and public transport drivers lose their jobs.
Great summation. Do you have a link to the current report you could post? Thank you!
Our biggest problem is waste. We waste EVERYTHING. Clothing,food,water,energy. You name it and we waste it. If it doesn't fit or if it's broken, we just throw it away. Waste is by far our biggest issue
I agree with that but the base problem is overpopulation way too many consumers on the planet and the big money companies just get wealthier because the products they produce like you say get thrown away. There are just too many people on the planet.
Inceneration plants shall all be closed. They are an insane aberation. Landfill sites are litterally better in every way exept pollution
We need more Common Sense.
We could rename the word waste to cycléng
And get more interested in proper recycléng
Meanwhile politicians _know_ about all of this, yet are too busy pinning the public against each other and furthering their own agendas to actually do anything about it. I think it's also kinda gross that the critics who state "necessity is the mother of invention" is how we're going to solve these issues. Thing is they're not _wrong,_ humans as whole are notorious for ignoring problems until they're actually threatening something personal to them, it's just the apathetic attitude behind it that's gross.
@@koschmx Oh people absolutely suck, don't get me wrong. They're not excused for their behavior just because bad actors successfully pulled at their sensationalist heartstrings, but you can still put the blame on the skeezy politicians who have the knowledge and power to be able to do something about it and choose not to for whatever, most likely selfish, reasons.
@@w00tyd00d Money. If it doesn't help their bottom line, or it hurts the bottom line of those who donate to them, they won't do it. It's that simple.
Do you REALLY think Lauren Bobert knows this? Margarie Talyor Green? Honestly?
And the US just decided to go "Let's just stop all environmental protection and do a bunch of crappy stuff to potentially put this in overdrive!!"
@@w00tyd00d One theory which had been proven to have some truths claimed that the democratic party is funded by the Communist Party of China.
The way the party is able to fund the democrats is by using American businessâs that are owned by Chinese companyâs as a loophole to donate money.
The theory then goes on to claim that Chinas end goal is to subject America and permanently buy out all of its farmlands.
Unfortunately it looks like the theory is true because I seen news reports of China buying American farmland.
10:57 bro, i had to pull over and laugh for literal minutes because of your timing.
My own prediction would be closer to 2030
Too early
Stoking the Paranoia Machine! YOU GO GIRL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
@@robbenvanpersie1562 True paranoia is a beautiful thing and chicks dig creepy dudes, eh? Let's chat!
Would love to see a comparison of the various economic doomsday theories of the 50s-80s and see how they've fared. I remember hearing my parents and their friends talking about them in the early 90s, and yet here we are.
I can partially answer that one since I was around back then. Was in High School in the late '60s, when the pollution (I mean all the poisonous ones, not just invisible CO2) was as bad as pictures of Shanghai, China today. You could only see a clear sky over NYC perhaps 2 or 3 days all year. The Hudson River was so poisonous you could die trying to swim in it. A lot of "Doomsday Scenarios" back then, all of which, except for the population explosion, got turned around faster than any model had predicted. There was no CO2 doom scenario at that time. This plays into what this video so well pointed out, that we as a species will always be surprised in the future, for better and for worse. Our scientific models today, even from the "finest minds" can turn out better and/or worse and we aren't as good at predicting all the insane amount of variables as we think we are when we create them.
Yeah, here we are. Life was easier back then.
Since postmodernism we clearly are living in the end days. ;)
Mostly wrong and wildly so. Partially from lack of knowledge/understanding and partially from ideological biases.
Just because the descent downward has been slower than initially predicted, that doesnât mean it isnât happening. The shape of the middle class in the US has been on a downward trajectory since the 1970âs, Iâd start there if youâre looking for a time line to studyâŠ
"A lot of technological innovation these days is just major companies finding new and innovative ways for you to waste your time consuming advertiser content." - this is so true, disappointing, and frightening.
But always has been the case.
Brought to you by Skillshare!
Corporations don't really innovate they just create a product that sell and stick to it
Corporations have always been like that. It's nothing new
The truth is only 5% of our society is really productive to sustain humanity. A the others is just consuming.
at 1:43, the statue looks like a gold covered bronze, now viewable at the museum in Pergola, Italy's Marche region
I saw a guy with a sign yesterday. The sign said, the world will end tomorrow.
I was 20 when the Limits to Growth was published. I really did not expect our civilisation to endure until today. I am constantly gobsmacked at how rĂ©siliant and innovative humans are, but Iâm not encouraged by the general ambivalence and ignorance of our world âleadersâ. Iâll be ninety by 2040, if Iâm lucky. Iâm much more concerned for my children and grandchildrenâs future. As they say, âThere is no planet B.â
Dude, I'm going to be 32/33. I used to be terrified but now it's hard to feel much other than apathy with occasional anger. I'm an idealist even now though, I guess I have to be. Really though, there's three ways this could go. We either fight against this godawful system and emerge into a more rational and loving way of operating (that doesn't devalue the ecosystem and human life), become crippled by fascism, or some doomed mix of the two. At this rate, we can't predict which it'll be, but society's going to collapse alright. Try to enjoy it while it lasts, and remember, not all that is right is legal.
@@totallyrealnotfakelifeadvi7547 Human life isn't nearly as precious as it is made out to be.
@@Antiteshmis If you're a human being, you should value other people's lives as your own
@@zer-atop3032 I don't value the lives of people who take pleasure in torturing innocent animals as my own.
"Being a human being" is not defined by you, it is the entirety of what people do.
ie, cutting the leg off a pup and throwing it off a bridge is also being human.
I am tired of people pretending vapid concepts such as yours are somehow credible or even desirable.
@@AntiteshmisThe great thing about being human is you can opt out any time you like. Thereâs the door, just see yourself out.
Donât worry guys, I got this, Iâll stop the collapse. You will know I was successful with my mission when you wake up on January 1st, 2041 to a still functioning world.
Thanks Cody, I'm glad somebody has a handle on this... AOC has us dead in ten, MIT in twenty, so I'm going to put my faith faith in your capable hands & hold you to your mission goal.
keep being cute, lets see who laughs last
@@allthatmattersiscigars2312 bruh are you threatening to collapse society
Someone better post on this comment om 1st january 2041
@@snugglecity3500 That's part of Cody's mission, the post-action debrief. Notifications: Check!!!
I have read about this scoietal collapse theory for a while but only now fully understand how it can possibly and realistically come about!..This is a brilliant piece of analyysis. Well done mate, you've done it again. #fellowaussie
Firstly thanks for the presentation. Much appreciated. You may be right about our human nature and abilities to be innovative. I still feel uneasy about the modelling predictions particularly the inclusion of the variables. Despite not including some of the data that we are experiencing also only serves to heighten my concern. World authorities aught to be paying some attention to this matter as we do not have much time for corrective measures. Itâs a similar matter in space where thereâs an asteroid that could require some critical course correction upon its next pass. Failure to take action at that time May place earth in danger of a collision with the asteroid the following passage where thereâs a trajectory plotted too close for comfort and safety for earth. Why chance a collision when action soon alleviates the risk ?? Itâs always been the same old story !!!!!
Just my Luck! By the time Iâll be old enough to retire, our Effin Economy and Society will Collapse đ€Šââïž
Who ever said that this society would allow you to retire?
Itâs ok, the way these idiots are running things, Babylon will never let you retire. Downsizing and quitting is the only realistic way to take time to enjoy life at this point
@@LindaASJ I'm with you
Easy to answer: 2 or 3 generations have been sacrificed. Also the minimum wage is increasing a lot faster than the raises for $25 / hr that have almost stayed the same wage for 10 years.
I'LL be taking a dirt bath by then. Good luck. đ
If Society does collapse, remember to press âVâ because it activates your VATS
@Joshua Bullock You should have stockpiled bottlecaps.
The deathclaws come for us all!
I thought it was tab
F
@Joshua Bullock Itâs cool, I got my alien blaster for all you degenerates đ
Something tells me these researchers had read "Foundation" by Isaac Asimov
Great. Great job, wonderful
I think we should remember that when a civilization collapses it doesn't always mean everyone dies immediately, it usually means people slowly migrate elsewhere.
It means people are going to die, slowly in horrible ways. Starvation, fires, weather extremes and changing patterns. While people might slowly migrate elsewhere that's not going to be an option for the poorest and most vulnerable. Which, to the corporatacy, I guess they're expendable.
If the US collapsed, another world power would quickly take control
If is a global collapse, then where do we migrate to?
@@jackknifer1 weâll go with Elon to Mars
Good point
"Here you go, have an ad"
Me: "Ha, there's no way you can't do that"
Me a second later: '____'
It's nice when people manually mark ad points because it's usually in an area that doesn't interrupt the flow
Yo that psyched me out for a moment
Great video as usual. But afaik the idea of feedback loops does not come from music but rather from cybernetics.
Iâm getting a completely blank screen watching this has it begun already lol or do I just need to restart the app?
So, a little extra bit for people who are curious : systems dynamics models are a bit different than the modern machine learning systems we generally picture today. they do not have the ability to be trained and learn, instead they are hand built, usually using multiple theories that are then chained together into bigger 'systems'. The 'historical data' bit is for hand validation, you run known datasets through it and see how well your theory does, then you have to hand make adjustments. It is still pretty heavily used today since it is much more explainable than ML, but requires a lot more up front work and is not as useful for things like recommendation systems (the core of search, advertising, and product/media browsing) so it gets a lot less attention.
With ML models, or any model for that matter relies on a human inputting the data. So a human would have to put in data for economic indicators like population, GDP etc, and ML model would still have human bias in it.
For example the point the Aussie guy raised about the 1972 model not having climate change included. If for example ML technology was about in 1972 the researchers wouldn't have put in climate data into the model.
If we were to build a model be it ML or whatever the flavour of the month is the model would have biases
ok, nerd
@@ctb1977 Yeah. But that does impose remodelling every now and then, not dismissal of the whole thing. More often then not, when arguing about biases in models or data, what you argue about exhausts it's effect in the third decimal place.
Oh the irony...
@@somenameidk5278 they can be simple or complex. it is just a particular method for building them.
"Worst case scenario? - Well then I guess it's time to learn how to forage food in the wilderness. Which you can right now with Skillshare"
Greatest sponsor segue in history. Well done.
Not with wet-bulb temperatures, sorry.
Quite so. Though, with severe resource depletion, there may be no wilderness left in 2040. At least, not enough to support all 10 billion people seeking out that wilderness.
I read this at the exact moment he said this. Gave me a much needed laugh
I loved your segue into the ad around 12 mins
I am in no way concerned about anything after the last 3+ years in "American-Politics"!!đđđđ
When someone stokes the Paranoia Machine, you don''t succumb? Are you made of steel? Trump's multi billion dollar media empire has you tired out? Did you pout every July 4th when he was prez? When he has his nuclear football in prison under protection of the secret service, will a prison riot kill all the pedophiles in his prison? Will he go for the criminal vote? So, you found Trump's "citizen political grooming" creepy? Let's chat!
Trump was to terrorize the foriegn bad actors after Obama didn't scare them enough. You could see the look on these dictators' faces. They knew Trump was a dangerous freak. So Americans could get back to their football, Dude. It's not rocket science. Ready for stage two of Xi pooping his panties!
Societies collapse because no population ever believes it could happen to them. Since they believe their system to be eternal, they never deviate from the "business as usual" model. Only when the collapse occurs do , they then scream "Why didn't someone warn us? Why didn't someone do something to stop this?", conveniently forgetting all the times they attacked anyone who dared say that "business as usual" was anything but the greatest path of all.
Society will collapse by 2015
The good times have created weak men. And thus, here we are.
@@TheBoydTV His entire catalog should be required reading. Now, if you'll excuse me, I have to get back to stacking all the cargo I can get my hands on.
Then there is no worry of that happening to the Anglosphere nations who spend day and night crying 'the sky is falling' and screeching that everything is wrong and our worlds will end if only we don't change change change course.
@@marcuscook5145 Spoken like the weakest form of man that exists, a fascist. Capitalism's built in self-destruction mechanisms don't need any help from a nominal gay population or spoiled suburbanites.
As someone who has worked with simulations before, this is the most critical question:
How many times did they rerun the thing and the result was ânothing interestingâ before the run that gave them the âthe world is endingâ result?
EDIT: More analysis on the study below!
We've been on the same trajectory, without improvement, that has been predicted for decades. Same thing with climate change. Does the world need to explode before you take it seriously?
@@xuto2693 Have you read the study? it's a joke.
The World3 model has been "re-calibrated" (i.e. changed to fit current data) several times, with the last one being 1990. Then the years are sampled in averaged 5 year periods, (suspiciously) ending in 2015. In other words, the study relies on a correlation on literally 5 data points. Even then, 3 of the variables are over the ridiculous "acceptance range" of +/-20%.
The critical variable that defines the collapse (pollution) shows two data sources. The rates of changes (vital for a dynamic simulation) span a margin from -70% to 240% respect the "closest fit".
Another suspicious result of the analysis included is that the original World3 had tipping points that are now in the past, and had not happened (ups!), but all three relevant scenarios (BAU2, CT, SW) are a very close fit to one another, and the tipping points are conveniently past 2020. $10 say that the World3 model will be reviewed sometime after 2025 and the tipping points will shift forward again to 2035.
The idea that somehow the world hasn't changed significantly since 1972 is laughable at best (BAU literally stands for Business As Usual).
Of course, if the article was published saying "All is good", it would not have appeared in the press...
@@theondono Don't they recalibrate Climate models all the time as well?
@@armentumhominum9931 The devil is in the details. We continuously add new data into climate models to allow for predictions that see further in the future. This models give us a thin "cone" of possible futures that extends into the future, the further from the data end you want to predict, the bigger the cone.
When this type of modelling is done correctly, the cone either maintains it's "angle" or it gets decreased (the model is improved). This shows that the original model had validity and keeps it's predictive power (for instance it lets you predict 50 years into the future within ~10% accuracy).
The World3 model cone by contrast grows bigger with each revision, because the conclusion is pretty much set in stone (world collapse by 2040), but the timespan gets progressively shorter because so far, the world is not ending. When your predictive model does this, well, it's time to reconsider if you wanted to accurately represent the world or if you aimed for a certain conclusion and played with it until you got what you wanted...
@@theondono Interesting, thanks for the great reply. For real.
I'm not a climate change denier, one don't need more than a pair of eyes and memory to see how drastically climate has and is changing. But I also remember the predictions that were taught in schools about climate and how they didn't come true. I think that anything that can be used to further political agendas, and power, it will be used, and climate seems to be one of the top issues used in that direction. Sadly.
For more innovation to occur the vested interests in many developed and developing economies would have to accept diminished power, status and potential relatively easy profits. Most people usually don't want to change unless the incentives are huge or the inconveniences become too much to bear.
Love that "here you go have an add"
It can take hundreds of years for an empire to collapse. Easy to see when looking at ruins, hard to see when you are in it as it happens.
And then there's Sri Lanka ... czcams.com/video/10dcpgY8meQ/video.html
The US says... Hold my beer.
Perhaps as technology speeds up, so do collapses. Weâll find out soon enough, I think.
@@joecrowaz The US is fine lol.
@@devinfraserashpole4753 circlejerking about the US collapsing gives them something conveniant to direct their hate towards and give them an excuse to be lazy, useless assholes in society. Dont take statements like his seriously
To quote Historia Civilis roughly
âOn average there has been a great power conflict every 50 years all the way back to when clear superpowers existed and even before⊠with two BIG exceptions, after the Napoleonic Wars, and right nowâ
Only two times where there was peace for an extended period of time, a none that lasted more than 100 years
Edit: No we arenât all gonna die soon, what I quoted is an observation of the pattern not a fundamental law of the universe, so calm down
The United States has had major conflicts every 80 years, approximately, since it first formed. 1780: revolutionary war, 1860: civil war, 1940: ww2, 2020: weâll see what happens this decade I guess
I mean , at least the next major conflict will be the last one.
@@Robinjhoe1 you mean every one would be dead. đ„
Even then what about those other conflicts⊠and which countries are you considering and not considering .
L
@@jackdias9263 Two data points are simply not enough to see a pattern.
Very very well presented, thanks cobber
At the core of this collapse is greed. Those who have enough want more, and that takes from others causing disparity.
EE: "Innovation today is basically major companies finding innovative ways for you to waste time on ad sponsored content. Yes, I know the irony that I'm part of the problem but, here you go, have an ad..."
*Udemy advert plays
*Skips ad
EE: "What a good little consumer you are."
đđđ
It was so smooth I watch the whole ad
Adblock browser
@@andrewradford3953 yeah I was gonna say, there was an ad? :0
Free will is an illusion we are constantly being manipulated by media, politics and advertisement.
@@meivenheaven then manipulation is an illusion.
"If you're watching this, you have access to the internet"
*me in 2077 watching it in a post apocalyptic digital library*
You must be in the Arlington library in DC lone wanderer, get me that library catalog for my book the wasteland survival guide and there will be something in it for you, hugs and kisses Moira.
2198 Infoverse Gang represent!
Me from my homemade computer in a garage: another survivor?
An apocalypse would likely instantly erase digital technology, all this data would become inaccessible. People don't appreciate enough how fleeting all this is.
@@fleshworm entirely depends on the style of apocalypse, not that many will result in totally unrecoverable data loss
'We are ahead of schedule', doesn't it mean we are actually doing good
Whenever I want to say "G'day, mate!" like an Australian, I speak in my normal American accent, "G'die, Mite!" Perfect every time.
The thing I like about these "predicting models" is that they are often wrong.
More like "always wrong" đ
And sometimes it's better wrong
What do you mean extrapolation can never take into account the ambient chaos of the world?
Just like religion lol
The thing with fascists is they only hear what they want to
Those set dates for the collapse of the civilization never worried me. As a Brazilian there is no way I'll be on time for it.
See this? This is why I hate being an Asian, I'D BE ON TIME FOR IT.
@@lokishalltear3517 LOL
YEARS AGO I realized the longevity of a civilization is inversely proportional to its rate of technological advancement . We donât have very long
Somewhere on the back cover of Richard Buckminster Fuller's book ...." Grunch Of Giants ...." occurs a message to the effect ....( nowhere within this book will you find the word " economics " ) .... nor does one .... anywhere within it ....recall even once finding that word .
I was at MIT economics at the time, and I met Prof Forester several times. You have to remember that the 70s were a time of huge commodity price increases. Many people, not just economists, extrapolated this out to mean that we would eventually run out of things. Later this became known as "peak oil" etc.I remember one paper that said we would soon run out of copper because the minimum minable grade was assumed to be 0.1%.
None of this occurred. The '80s were a time a commodity price collapse. This was due to Increased production, tech driven substitution - all the usual things. Prices in real terms have never recovered. Great for us shorts.
You should do a video on this whole era, the Club of Rome etc. It would go well with your wry delivery.
We constantly work to eradicate forest and ocean life. We work for ecocide.
Sir, the same thing is being said for lithium. They are saying that we have not enough lithium to replace the batteries in Electric Vehicles. What an Irony! Might be our future generations have an answer.
We will die. Just look around. Trash everywhere.
it doesn't matter if the predictions are off by decades or even centuries. True, we might find new unexpected sources. But the fact is, as Elon Musk eloquently puts it, extracting non-renewable sources from a limited environment will inevitably lead to resource depletion, even if the timing of it is uncertain. That is just mathematics, if you keep subtracting from a finite number you will eventually reach 0.
I read about Peak Oil years ago and it was a startling concept. I even thought that it was imminent and things were going to get tough. That was 17 years ago. Granted, we have pandemics and product shortages, but the world certain writers envisioned (looking at you, James Kunstler) definitely hasn't come to pass.
Guys, it's been a rough couple of years for humanity. We've been through a couple of defeats. It's good to finally be ahead in something. So keep up the good work everyone. Cheers!
đ
I know that the world sucks right now, but if we just give up and resign ourselves to the belief that it's never gonna get better, then it's never gonna get better!
@J Maxx I see what you mean. I guess I'm trying to say that the response should be one of concern, but optimism that it can be averted, not one of inevitability. Of course, negative things can be and are reality, I'm not denying that, I'm just trying to say that being a doomer about it all the time isn't very productive. I probably could have worded that better.
We try our best. I got my snacks and a chair. Let the fun begin.
@J Maxx stop with this climate alarmism we have bigger problems climate can wait
Mutual insured destruction brought peace. Peace brings wealth. War brings wealth to some, but its still a net loss.
Who's to say this isn't just a correction of the trajectory of the population. Who's to say this is bad for the Earth or for the further development of our cultures
And who's to say the opposite would be better? Plenty of experts have shown that this planet can easily support 20 billion of us...quite well. Today, most of the Earth is empty and undeveloped.
The average person has never been so poor. Millions of families are struggling financially as living expenses hit the highest levels in more than four decades. Over 60% of our country lives paycheck to paycheck and about 40% earns poverty wages. Even after working all their lives, more than a quarter of older people have no savings and many believe they will never be able to retire in dignity, while around 55% of elderly people try to survive on an income of less than âŹ25,000 a year. My primary concern is how to grow my reserve of âŹ300k which has been sitting duck since forever with zero to no gains.
It's scary how true this message is. What steps can we take to generate more income during quantitative tightening? Also, on the contrary, how can we profit in times of quantitative easing? Where should we put our investment money now to better prepare for the future and a liquidity crisis?
As a new investor it's always great to hear from a person who has gone through all the difficult times and come ahead of it. It's unnerving to see your portfolio go from green to red but as mentioned if you have invested in quality names just have to keep adding to them and stay the course.
@@cuddyb9631 Right. I'm sure the idea of a coach sounds controversial to a few, but new study by investopedia found that demand for investment coaching sky-rocketed over 41% since the rona-outbreak till date. Based on firsthand encounter I can say for certain, their skillsets are top notch, I've built a solid 4 years+ working relationship with my coach, gaining rare but useful insights and after subsequent investing, accruing approx. $1.75m in savings thus far.
@@kaylawood9053 I have no AdvisĂžr at all and this recent dip which i feel was triggered by war resulting to inflation and so many other factors could hit my portfolio so hard. who would you recommend i seek out for in times like this?
A 12th century pauper wants to know your location
At least the governments are ahead of schedule on something for once.
Brutal.. but accurate!
Right...they are paving the roads to our futures; happy to see many agree!
US, indian and chinese governments*
Only way to avoid all of these scenarios is to implement a Resource Based Economy like the one advocated by The Venus Project
Is it only me or others too feel that things are uncomfortably changing very fast since last few years (post Covid) ?