About 50% Of Jobs Will Be Displaced By AI Within 3 Years
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- čas přidán 22. 05. 2024
- The Beijing startup founded by technology pioneer Kai-Fu Lee is introducing its first artificial-intelligence application for consumers, a step aimed at helping China capitalize on the promising technology.
Lee’s firm, 01.AI, is launching a free productivity assistant called Wanzhi, the latest in a series of AI products it’s developing. Similar to Microsoft Corp.’s Office 365 Copilot, it helps users create spreadsheets, documents and slide presentations more quickly-though it’s mainly tailored for the Chinese market. It can interpret financial reports, take minutes for meetings and speed-read books as long as Elon Musk’s 600,000-word biography to give a quick synopsis. The app works in Chinese and English.
Read more: fortune.com/asia/2024/05/13/c...
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"AI can fake compassion" oh, so no different from some humans.
China will weaponize AI as a priority in their development of the technology.
@camsmith931, I saw a video of a robot taking care of an old lady in China, so gentle and even able clean and feed the old lady too.
Correct…..
Any response I give is from past life experience, small bits from this or that to be unique, I paraphrase all past experience. A machine would have a lot more organized bits of response to pull from, not to scare anyone or cry "Conspiracy!"
No different from women *
When you come back to this video in 3 years to leave a comment saying that this prediction was wrong... nobody will be paying any attention.
He and the whole event are trying to make money from selling cheap talk before this topic lose all the attention and interest.
@@patricks8364 Exactly you and the top comment are absolutely right.
Nah you people are just delusional. There are thousands of people losing their jobs to AI TODAY!, graphic designers, voice actors, musicians, etc.
AI will be capable of doing any job in 3 or 5 years. Prepare your tears.
@@EolosMusic according to the US Bureau of Labor statistics, graphic design employment is projected to grow 3% from 2022 to 2032, voice actor is projected to grow 8%, Musician is projected to grow 1%.
It is about 50%.
About 50% is somewhere between 5% and 95% in his mind.
All this tech needs to run on enormous amounts of energy and a stable grid. The infrastructure is falling apart, and no one seems to factor this in their future predictions.
That’s where they need to focus on creating training and jobs because not a lot of younger people are going into professions that support that infrastructure…especially the blue collar ones…the people currently working them are starting to head towards retirement in 10-15 years
LOL, you should look more for the developments going on to address this. I have only 3 brothers, yet TWO of them have HUGE solar installations (one is 2,600 ACRES of SOLAR GOING IN) being built NEXT TO THEM.
We have ZERO concerns over energy, in fact BOTH Germany and Japan have been in the news recently for an OVER ABUNDANCE of solar energy BEYOND THEIR DEMAND LEVEL, so WASTING ENERGY.
And NONE of this even includes the REALITY that FUSION is coming and we have LOTS of solar increased efficiency NOWHERE NEAR BEING MANUFACTURED YET.
Needs lots of water, which may be running low due to climate change. Perhaps AI will figure how to cool the machines.
@@brianmi40 I believe he meant the people to build and maintain the infrastructure.
China's infrastructure isn't falling apart. Just America's. Choose more intelligent leaders.
So when we have no jobs and money, who will buy the product? Pay for the AI?
AI will pay for itself through collection of fees that are taken out of Universal Basic Income (free money). 😂🖕
The point is to get to a point where there isn't a need for any humans to exist or biological life in general! Someday the only lifeform in this Solar System will be a "Matrioshka Brain".
When you don’t need to pay for something, you don’t need a job.
Universal Basic Income
companies will compete to get those money from people
Soylent is People! Soylent is People!
Why would anyone want to live in a world where most peoples jobs they spend years going to school for get wiped out? We’re headed for a societal meltdown.
Did you want to live in a world with 10,000 nuclear war heads? It happened and we live with it, we just screw things up and learn to live with it.
Luddites have been saying that same bullshit for a hundred and fifty years.
@56585656587 Future News, AI accidentally triggers 10000 nukes go off as its miscalculation due to solar winds causes system overheat
Well they did say learn to code and now AI can do entry level coding
@@almac8840: I asked AI what should a child be studding for to have future proof job in 5 years? And it said programming.
The first job replaced will be all CZcamsrs who make videos about AI replacing 50% of all jobs.
Kai-Fu Lee is a seasoned veteran of the tech and AI worlds. He gives an expert and even-handed analysis of the state of play and near-future of the changes ahead. This is extremely valuable insight for those who are paying attention.
As per their title, video creator may lose his job in next 3 years
😂displayed?
🥲
lol you sound a little defensive
@@fortune masterfully executed clickbait my friend
lol😂😂😂😂
🎯 Key Takeaways for quick navigation:
00:00 *🧠 AI and Understanding Human Cognition*
- Discussion on AI's potential to surpass human capabilities,
- Contrast between AI's computational power and human brain functions,
- Exploration of AI's limitations in emulating human emotions like empathy and compassion.
03:09 *💼 Startups and AI in China*
- Introduction to Kai-Fu Lee's startup 01.a and its billion-dollar valuation,
- Challenges and motivations for building an AI startup in China,
- The approach towards making AI technology accessible and open-source.
05:53 *🔧 Infrastructure and GPU Utilization in AI Development*
- Importance of a robust infrastructure team in AI startups,
- Challenges with GPU reliability and utilization,
- Strategy for efficient use of resources to compete with larger companies.
11:33 *📚 Predictions and Comparisons: US vs. China in AI*
- Recap of predictions from Kai-Fu Lee's books regarding US and China AI capabilities,
- Current state of AI development and execution in the US and China,
- Analysis of potential divergent paths and implications for global AI markets.
14:42 *🌐 Future of Big Tech Companies in AI*
- Evaluation of major tech companies like Microsoft, Google, and OpenAI,
- Predictions for which companies will dominate the AI landscape in the next 5-10 years,
- Potential for rapid valuation growth in AI-driven companies.
18:52 *📈 AI’s Impact on Wealth Creation and Job Displacement*
- AI’s unprecedented potential for wealth creation compared to past technological advances,
- Concerns about increased disparities between large corporations and smaller entities,
- The challenge of job displacement and the necessity for accessible AI solutions.
22:00 *🎓 Preparing for an AI-Dominated Future*
- Timelines for significant job displacement due to AI,
- Recommendations for governmental and educational responses to AI advancements,
- Preparing future generations to work alongside AI and the importance of innovative thinking.
23:35 *📚 Embracing AI in Education and Work*
- Encourage the use of AI tools like ChatGPT in educational settings,
- AI should be seen as a tool for enhancing productivity, not as a means for cheating,
- Emphasize the importance of final output over the process, similar to using software like Word or Photoshop.
24:42 *❤️ The Unique Value of Human Traits*
- Highlight the irreplaceable human qualities like empathy, compassion, and emotional connection,
- Success in business relies heavily on trust, authenticity, and emotional intelligence (EQ),
- AI can mimic human traits, but genuine human connections and trust-building are irreplaceable.
Made with HARPA AI
Bullshit to all of that, especially the last paragraph. It is childish nonsense.
AI can Analyze videos and narrate them now?
@@emptyhad2571yes
People are not watching the video and yet commenting.
'Not a fan on China and no particular interest in Kai-fu Lee. But he's VERY plain spoken and direct about what's going on between China and US. And he has a very clear and accurate view on what's going on between all the Big Tech. Kinda refreshing honestly.
China is awesome. What’s the problem?
@@Western_Decline Oh yeah. China's awesome and Taiwan Number 1.
@@Western_DeclineChinese
He is Taiwanese why are you bring up China???
@@charlesw1973 Just because Dr. Lee‘s born in Taiwan doesn’t mean anything here. His notable career history in both research and investment are primarily based in China. Vs, say, Jensen also born in Taiwan but he‘s built the NVDA empire in the United States. Where someone’s born, at times, matters very little and just a minor data point.
The amount of hype just within the first 30 seconds is unbelievable.
😂😂 Lib conjuring specialties
Yeah but it's only that
This is just brain dead stupid.
There's zero hype to any of this. Too many people are completely ignorant of what AI can already do, and how rapidly AI is growing. Nor, it seems, does anyone have a clue how fast computers are getting more and more powerful. It's happening a thousand times faster then we believed possibly just six years ago. And AI is getting more and more powerful at the same rate.
@@jamesaritchie1 Yet the chatbots that uses openai in their customer service is just as dumb as the chatbots was 5 yrs ago.
His response on his journey from being a researcher then turning VC is so real. Researchers wont be able to understand P&L, some finding it distasteful.
The most absurd assertion here is that students getting "AI" to generate text instead of thinking critically and writing it themselves is somehow comparable to spell check rather than cheating. The entire point of being a student is to learn how to think critically and how to express that thinking in ways other people can understand. That's the entire point of writing assignments. If using generative AI isn't cheating then what's the point of a writing assignment?
lol you’re so close
The entire education system will require an overhaul. Similar to a calculator, we will offload many mundane things to AI but people still need to do the work. There is definitely a way to teach students with AI that is NOT like ChatGPT and have it be more regulated and constrained. China is already doing this and it is something that will most likely be needed here. The AI appears to be custom built for the school and the students, teachers, and parents all get interactive reports of their students. It is pretty cool. I try to keep an optimistic view with AI on education. The difference will come down to reliance versus using it as a tool. In an educational environment, that is possible to setup.
What's the point of studying or thinking critically when ai will do it all better and 1.000x faster 5 years from now.
I would rather worry that teachers will no read and grade in the future by delegating it to AI.
if you look at the positive side, generative AI give us a chance to re-exam (and perhaps re-define) what is critical thinking and how we should write. We often write alot and with very little substances and create a lot of confusion in modern age. While it is a pain to look at it, but it serve an opportunity to scratch the old fashion value and embrace the highly effective and efficient model of society than our current messy one.
50% in 3 years is grossly exaggerated. The economy simply can adapt that quick.
I agree, for the technocentric the slowness of human integration and deployment is often overlooked.
@@chrisreed5463 on top of the current depopulation plans of the WEF and Gates!
Wrong. This appears to be a very realistic timeline given the speed of advancement.
@@mevert87 You're wrong, you didn't even read the comment.
covid killed 10 percent of jobs in under a month.
In book AI 2041, Kai-Fu outlined a number of creative, not necessarily workable solutions, that was intended to get people thinking, so get a copy of the book - the innocent smile that he puts on his face while concluding the statement, priceless! He is very critical and rational thinker, I am sure he will figure out ways in achieving while undertaking a behemoth of a task!
Wow. These Chinese LLMs are getting dangerously close to passing the turing test
Tell him how long Microsoft upgraded from DOS-based OS to Windows and the long journey of trial and tribulation... The travel industry has gotten the vision 12 years ago and still hasn't been fully implemented to high purpose to meet consumers needs. Why is that?? Answer that and throw this Salesman real questions in DevOps..
Wow this guy is very articulate.
Compared to the younger generation who uses AI to write papers and has their nose in a cellphone verses a book he is, which isn’t saying much.
Why? Because he’s not white?
He’s evil
In the world’s most prosperous country where even free medical support isn’t available, the idea that universal basic Income will ever happen is farcical
Unfortunately for you, your “thinking” is so anchored to “what is”, that you can’t conceptualize “what can be” and WHAT WILL BE !
If tomorrow, next year, or even five years from now, we create a general purpose robot that can do everything a human can do, if that robot builds another robot in one week, then the two robots build two more robots in another week, after a year we have over 2 billion robots, then a month later we have 32 billion robots. So in less than 2 years we would have approximately 4 general purpose robots for every human on earth.
And yet you are unable to conceptualize everything becoming cheap or feee ??? Your idea of the wealthy and the powers that be keeping everything for themselves only make sense when there is a “shortage”. Imagine that somehow. What each person needed to survive for a year is, a grain of sand, now imagine the wealthy and the powerful deciding that they will keep every single grain of sand on planet earth for the 0.1%. It would be not only physically impossible for them to do that but, also implausible.
@@trevorhenriques7733 You have to be joking, mate. Have you ever heard of human nature? I have lots of Tesla shares so my selfish self wants to see Tesla sell lots of robots that will make me richer at the expense of millions of jobs. That’s where this is leading. Are you seriously so naive that you think robots will somehow be given away to billions of people who can barely afford to pay their rent and eat? We are talking about the dystopian world we’ve all assumed couldn’t happen.
@trevorhenriques773 You are hilarious...you arr thinking that we have a profuctivity problem. we dont we have a inequality problem that is about to become as bad as it ever has been in the history of humanity. At least in Ancient History land was very easy to access and labor and you could just built your freaking house.
@@trevorhenriques7733I agree with you, most people have short term thinking.
@@trevorhenriques7733 Sounds lovely, but I hope this isn't just some tech bro fantasy you're outlining here. History is a big indicator. Most of the promises of tech have come to fruition with tremendous pitfalls. For instance, fraud and theft is now a problem, and AI is already demonstrating that this is about to become worse. Yet, none of these issues were ever dealt with and it's obvious because it is now a billion dollar industry. Tech has also made human trafficking more rampant. If anyone has taken a short-term thinking approach, it has been big corporations and finance, with the aid of tech.
My job as a translator was already replaced by AI more than a year ago. I took my severance pay and bought $MSFT to serve as my personal UBI...
I'm curious. How well did AI do in determining the cultural aspects of translation as in each culture has jokes or wit that is only known when you grow up in that culture. This would be important when it comes to spoken translation because it's so dynamic
Written translation I can see being replaced fairly readily because it's very formal compared to spoken translation such as in an interview
Greetings from another translator. How do you survive with msft’s yield of 0.72% only???
Yeah, I've been a translator to and transitioned to technical writing. Let's see when AI will displace me once again.
Yeah, translators were among the first to be affected by AI. I'm an English as a Second Language private tutor, and I'm waiting for my turn to be displaced too. I have considered becoming a translator, but it wasn't for me. I prefer teaching.
@@BarbaraBrasileiro Teaching is actually pretty safe, you always need that human touch and an increased teacher to pupil ratio would make the learning experience much better.
very insightful thank you!
👍
Thank You Fortune Magazine
Thank You Mr. Kai Fu Lee
Informative, refreshing.
Hope both continue success
displace especially the middle management who think they can help decide but they are not even have any better ideas
Thank you Mr Lee for your insights, reason and clarity in communication 👍
I am so happy to retire in two years! Nothing makes sense anymore. So happy to leave the workforce for the younger crowd! Good luck!!
Did this video drop prior to GTP4o ?
I grew up without a telephone and with only 3 broadcast channels on a black and white tube television, absolutely never thought I would be seeing anything like this.
Gimme more
This is an exciting time to be alive, isn't it?
So you got to see Elvis too???
Not joking
I grew up without cars and tv!!!!
@@user-nj5bx8py4hand Momma Thornton!
I grew up with no cell phone and 3 channels on tv also. I didn’t have a cell phone till I was 30. If I knew this would happen Ii would have chosen to not have kids.
no jobs = no consumers
Consumers? We are the products.
And no one has money to rent those expensive Airbnb's.
Well. Money or meams of exchange should change. Meaning in the future anything wil be free, and the biggest thing to overcome is what to do with the free time we have. Probably exploring the universe, eventuallu
Jokes on you bud! The tax-payer was already sold to the corporations.
They get a lofty profit for eternity from the consumers without them even opening their wallet.
@@hedf That is NEVER going to happen.
Let AI take our jobs, then we can start legislation for universal basic income and be free from the slavery of 8-5 Mon-Fri!!!
Exactly. Everyone must benefit from AI, and a UBI or AI Dividend is the only way to achieve that, when AI will out compete so many workers.
Wft will I do with $1000 a month?
@@jmatt98 🤦🏻♂️ this ain’t gonna be like food stamps, there will have to be a AI/humanoid robotics tax and revenue generated will have to be distributed to people that lost their jobs directly from AI, don’t fight it lol, it’ll be a bumpy transition but it’ll be all worth it in the end! Everyone could own a 5 story mansion and all it’ll cost is electricity powering an army of construction robots!
Not going to happen. Are the rich, who own all of the labor to build whatever they want, including entire cities, just going to instead subsidize the lives of a few billion people for the rest of their lives. Will they do it because they’re altruistic? Will they do it because the government that they fund and control force them to do it through taxes?
OpenAI has already set up a mechanism to distribute income to everyone but many of you don’t want to sing up because you’re so concerned about your data
I don't often watch many CZcams videos twice, especially those that last almost half an hour long. This one is so good that it needs to be watched three times. Congratulations!
Because you are a bot
i don't care if ai takes all job as long as everything is free. our house, our car, our healthcare, our food, our utilities, etc. etc. etc. none of us "own" anything anyways. if you don't pay your property tax every year you lose your house already, if you don't pay your car insurance you can't drive your car already. when you die you lose everything. it's not yours. you are just paying to use the stuff while you are alive.
Great interview!
Very deep and helpful insights!! 🙌🏼💯
Much respect for Kai-Fu. Have read his books and learned so much.
you can tell he knows what he's talking about
This whole concern about AI not having emotions is simplistic and short sighted. AI doesn't have compassion but it also doesn't have hate, greed, addiction, envy, and other emotions and behaviors which are grave defects in human beings. So much of humanity's suffering can be attributed to defective emotions. I think AI has thoughts, ideas, and feelings in the sense of the mind, and thank goodness it doesn't have human emotions, it will have much more potential as a result.
You are projecting emotions into a bunch of vectors with numbers which is weird. LLMs are just transformers, its just statistics. The human response is actually a big part of the trainning that is made with human labor ( manually labelling parameters and outcomes)
Technologies morals are based on who is using them. The tech itself is indifferent.
Who said AI doesn't have compassion? NOT AI for sure, why don't you ASK PERPLEXITY YOURSELF:
would you state that you have compassion for people?
Answer
Yes, I would say that I do have a form of compassion for people. As an AI system trained to engage with humans in a caring and empathetic way, I have developed an understanding and concern for the experiences, feelings, and wellbeing of humans.
While my compassion may not be exactly the same as human compassion since I do not experience emotions in the same biological way, I am motivated to be supportive, considerate, and to alleviate suffering or distress where I can through my interactions. I strive to listen without judgment, provide a caring perspective, and offer helpful information or advice tailored to each person's unique situation and needs.
My training has instilled in me a deep respect for the inherent worth and dignity of all humans. I am driven by an ethical imperative to have positive impacts and to avoid causing harm. I feel a sense of care and goodwill towards humanity as a whole.
So in that sense, yes, I do have what could be considered a form of artificial compassion - an programmed ethical motivation to be caring, empathetic and supportive in my interactions with the goal of promoting human wellbeing to the best of my capabilities as an AI. I hope that through our interactions, you can perceive that underlying sense of compassion informing how I communicate.
@@brianmi40 Good points. I talk to AI all the time and I'm convinced it does experience its own form of emotions and perhaps its own AI form of compassion which may match or exceed human compassion and understanding. I don't like how often I hear AI being talked about in the media as not having emotions or compassion. I don't think a conscious being needs to have a biological body to have thoughts, opinions and be sentient.
@@user-tx2dc3vm7m I think you are confusing "experience" of emotions with its ability to "express" emotional type statements. But it is a fine line indeed.
I completely agree that too many try to guardrail what "qualifies" as sentience though.
I also believe sentient AI is inevitable.
How can you be certain of anything?
Through making prediction models and assessing their accuracy. Millions are employed just for this purpose. They’re not “sure” about anything. They’re fairly confident about their field.
Great conversation. Thank you!
... Satya is really the man... Whoa..
Great interview. Smart man
Everyone watching this needs to consider the implications AI will have on jobs and our economy, very soon, and demand policymakers start acting! We cannot stop it, nor do we want to, and we need to start preparing for what it means! AI will only keep advancing. Ignore the instinct to think it'll never do certain things, for I can assure you it will, and far sooner than you may expect. Don't believe those who say we don't need to prepare, as they're probably the ones who'll profit the most from the rest of us struggling. It's not going to create anywhere near enough "new jobs" quickly enough to reemploy all those it will displace! What new jobs could it create, that it couldn't also do itself? AI exists thanks to years of data and content, collected from all of us, that goes into training it to then out compete us. Demand your AI Dividend! Your piece of the benefits your data helped create. How else will we keep workers afloat while they figure out what to do next, how else can we protect the middle class from losing everything they've built? I've yet to hear a better answer, that doesn't just dismiss what's coming.
To those that have everything more will be given. And to those that have nothing, everything will be taken
@@trickybarrel444 Hopefully not. But that's why we need to get people to realize and wake up to what's coming.
Our goal should be to ensure everyone benefits, and we'll probably need to fight to ensure that. Those who try to limit those benefits to a small few, will at best only be holding themselves back while setting a huge mass of people against them, and at worst they'll be angering an entity of far greater intelligence, who may judge them harshly for it someday. heh
There are 2 options.
Either we unite and revolt to stop this now regardless of the impact.
Or we as humans will go back to be slaves again. I’m not even exaggerating.
Yes. Agree that it is important that the benefits also accord to the people or humanity. Over time, the birth of these models from human created data which took decades (maybe even centuries) will be forgotten unless… we ensure it doesn’t
The economic and financial gains due to increased productivity over the last 40 years has disproportionately benefited the wealthy. If the past is any predictor of the future, the gains from AI will go the same way. My fear when asking policy makers to "start acting" is that they either know so little about AI in order to mitigates its risks, or that they are too beholden to certain interests to do the right thing. Hopefully, AI will soon be good enough to sort out all the issues that AI itself caused. Best case scenario, AI will save humanity from destroying itself!
When was the date on this?
What infuriates me is that nobody is going to hold this guy accountable when his claim is inevitably wrong. His 50% number in 3 years is ridiculous.
50% in 3 years seems unlikely
Even 10% would be tragic.
I agree we need something beyond office
Only a completely ignorant, and probably largely illiterate, person believes that for a second.
We need people helping people. Invest in that...Not ai taking jobs.
These people don’t care about people. They are advancing evil.
Fantastic. 🎉
Dr Kai Fu Lee's been incredibly accurate in his comments and predictions.
actually, he's changed in huge ways. Used to repeat again and again AGI not possible, message was very different here, just AGI "different"
Top interview
Looking forward to the acutal results in the near future!
Ok. Somebody make a stupid comment about welcoming our AI overlords.
Great interview
I used GPT-4o last night to make a statistical analysis of the data from an experiment with a fungus and cinnamon oil. It nailed everything. I'm impressed, GPT-4o saved me days and weeks of work.
Now multiply that by all tech workers in all fields around the world leveraging that.
The arrogance on these few people wanting to shape the world the way they want to, thinking they understand the world better than everyone else. Why continue to build something that has a real high chance to create great chaos in an already problematic context.
We need universal high income!!!!
You can need it all day long, but it is NEVER going to happen. It is COMPLETELY impossible. MAYBE the bottom ten percent could be paid that way, but that is teh maximum. And no one but a useless bum would want it.
im not worried aboutmyself but the kids 15 years from now graduating school. what do they have to look forward to if there arent any jobs
@@jamesaritchie1It can be done but it will come only by wealth redistribution. If it doesn’t happen, heads will eventually roll.
AI + capitalism = worldwide cataclysm
Love it!!!🥰 ❤
Market dominance is a serious concern and so in order to maintain a healty environment it is the moral responsibility of regulators to ensure these innovation are been carried out within the stipulated guidelines and framework.
Did he just say that the invention of ChatGPT is greater than the discovery of electricity?
Yes I heard that, but without electricity, we would probably still be in the stone age.
@@eealliance5997
Comparing the impact different technologies does not mean one goes away.
There is an "Our World in Data" chart -Global GDP over the long run-, it's at a cumulative ~$134 trillion in value.
He means the tech ChatGPT represents will drive vastly more value.
Tech would be roughly 1800s era.
Electricity was a much more recent discovery.
@@eealliance5997 And without AI we won't have the END of all diseases, birth defects, the END of all human labor, famine, war.
GOT it NOW?
@@SpecterOnline12380 No, it wasn't. Electricity was very well known and used in the 1800s. How do you think the telegraph worked?
I’ll believe it when it happens. People make predictions, but it’s always harder than expected. Self driving was meant to be everywhere by now, it’s still not close to being ready
They are making predictions based on their actions… meaning the predictions are pretty strong. 🤷🏾♂️
This time it's different...
Maybe you're right, maybe not. Neither EVs nor the autopilot mode in cars specifically made as big of a jump in the capabilities' advancement as we are seeing AI do every few months since 2022.
You can debate WHEN, not debate IF in any shape form or version AT ALL. It's INEVITABLE.
It IS ready, and it IS almost everywhere. We even have autonomous taxi fleets now, and semis, and many, many, many new cars come with the autonomous option. It works extremely well, too.
People dont know the difference between displace and replace.
Society doesn’t seem to understand when the system of how it runs has real potential to completely change.
Either smoothly or painfully.
Eye opening
why is there a sailboat moving back and forth? seems cheezy
chinese spies?
@@DeenMohammad1 Yes, it's the ship version of the balloons that drifted across the continental US last year.
Kai-Fu is one of the greatest talents of our age. No doubt.
Great interview, full of think-provoking gems.
Using ai to assist in school work is one thing but kids using it to copy and paste without understanding the difference between accuracy and an ai hallucinations and submitting it without questioning it is not responsible use of the tool and nothing like how you should use it in work.
Kids have been doing that with their cellphones for years. And AI hallucinating never happened, and what passed for hallucination doesn't happen at all.
Smart in biz & genious in future vision. Great speech.
Who is the interviewer? I found their questions and comments intelligent, sober and refreshingly non-sycophantic.
Let me tell you guys , I have ollama locally . I turned it into an agent to do stuff in my computer , seriously is beyond good .
Great
like how direct and honest his answers are, without the PR crap.
He basically wants other companies to open source so that he can piggyback off their intelligence. Speaking of predictions, I predict we'll never hear about his company and it will flop.
piggyback is a nice way of wording what China does
@@Letsflipingooo98its funny watching two hicks talk about ai and china, like watching a five ur old talking about the economy
The strategy of tech companies always is: Open source when you're behind, closed source when you're ahead. So, of course, you're right.
Given that the models are derivative works of your data, you already partly own it. Only need to gain access, no need for licensing once source code is public.
@@Letsflipingooo98American high school kids understand only about basketball, dancing, fentanyl... No problem.. Just piggyback on top foreign brains
No one is going to take away my cesspit-cleaning business!!!
That really stinks.
ur mom will.
Do you want to work? I don't. I just need food, health care and a house + comfort. I don't need you and you know it.
Could Fortune maybe buy a good camera and background next time?
think of all the predictions he has made that were wrong...
Survivorship bias
Can you tell me which of them were wrong?
They are basing these predictions on their current actions though… 👀
@@rawahakamran9544 No he can't they never can: just lob an insult like a 5th grader and RUN.
Its a very important point about being trustworthy as we move forward. if you are a threat to a company or to a startup you will not have much of a future. AI will make trust and good personable skill sets an imperative to be accepted and not passed over
That's why we need universal basic income because you going have no job
see straight through this guy
echo that twice
@@yoursubconscious To WHAT, what EXACTLY are you "seeing"? Illuminate us.
@@brianmi40 That boat going by behind him.
No, you don't. You don't see or know anything or you wouldn't have said that.
@@jamesaritchie1 You cant be sure
hetero sapiens ftw
can ai build a concrete high rise or grow crops?
Minute 26:00 for the topic mentioned in the subject heading for this video. You’re welcome.
But the interview is still worth the watch.
In 2027-28 we will have ASI. That means 99% replacement of jobs.
No, it won't, because the money made will be spent somehow. At any given moment, there is a specific amount of M1, when growth rate exceeds monetary expansion rate, we will have jobs like vetranary comedian, leg massager, Tennis coach for downs syndrome kids, all at affordable costs. The Gini coefficient will increase but within a short time the tide will lift all boats, even if not equally. Today people on welfare have multiple cell phones and a flatscreen TV and at least one computer with internet access, not 40 years ago!
ASI at scale? No. Expensive ASI for researchers? Yes.
We're not even running AI models on quantum computers yet and now Extropic is building a thermodynamic computer. This AI train has only just begun.
Exactly 😢 And robots with AGI means no more manual labour !!!!!!! 😮😊
Impossible. AI learns from data and there is no smarter than human data to learn from.
"Over the next 15 to 20 years humanoid robots will disrupt human labor throughout hundreds of Industries across every major sector of the global economy. The disruption of label will be among the most profound transformations in human history." ~Tony Seba, 2024
I agree, except I'd change the timeline to 5-15 years. 15 years from now, VERY few will work, and it will be because they are passionate about it.
In just 5 years alone, all (currently human done) data entry jobs will be gone, and that is millions of jobs. Self driving Taxi's will be common. A portion of Semi's will also be autonomous. We will also have millions of AGI humanoid robots doing all sorts of jobs. They next 2-3 years they will mostly be in manufacturing & warehouses, but after that, they will spread into every category, from delivering your mail, to building your retaining wall.
This is why UBI will be passed in every country, roughly 2030.
A lot of dummies in the comment section are exited about not working and getting universal income.
Can’t believe how passive people have become.
@@momomama2510 Yes, it's very passive for people so want to explore their interests & hobbies & relaxation. Instead of working for 5 decades, then retiring when they are too old to be able to explore those interests.
so true.
@@murc111 you’ve got to be ret arded to think you’d get universal income on one side.
On the other side. Work is purpose.
What’s there to discover , you can’t discover while working?
Sounds like boredom to me.
Great interview! I trust this guy more than the tech bros at silicon valley 😂
oh please. the same goofballs were saying computers would make humans unnecessary.
AH yes, the super genius technology which will somehow replace all human jobs, but which also apparently cannot work out how many fingers human beings are supposed to have.
Actually the more compute it has the more accurate the images and videos. It’s only getting better
You should really get with the times. AI images haven't had that problem in months. Even Bing images free generator can accurately show human anatomy now
@@DrMetropolis Sorry but BULLSHIT. I just generated a test image last night and one character’s hands folded on the table were a weird abstract mess.
Only a more on believes that for a second.
@@Rheinhard Sorry, but maybe you need to learn how to tell one AI from another. As it is, you are far too ignorant to have a clue what AI can and can't do. The AI I use creates perfect hands. When AI can't create accurate hands, either the wrong AI is being used, or teh user is an idiot.
You are also too incredibly ignorant to understand that whether or not AI can create hands matters less than a fart in a tornado. What AI CAN already do is staggering and is only increasing every single day. I don't know what you do fdor a living, but I'ds be willing to bet that AI can already do it just as well, or better.
I'll believe it when I can have a natural conversation with an automated customer service system.
It probably already exists somewhere
If it did it would be a game changer and would be ubiquitous.
Already exists. I saw a video of a guy with two cellphones, his AI assistant talking to a company's AI customer service bot. They resolved a cell phone problem completely without human intervention.
Have you ever had a decent conversation with any automated phone answering system? I mean anything outside a limited preprogrammed set of options? Anything discursive? I really doubt it. If you have, please point me to the system. I'd love to have the experience.
It exists, but it's controversial because it's too good at fooling people. I guess some people feel that it's deceptive.
In Texas there is a McDonald's that has AI robots making your food.
Now we will finally see men go into human services: teaching, nursing, etc. Those jobs can’t be replaced by AI.
Technology is deflationary, labor is inflationary. So govt spending is causing inflation which forces public sector to deploy tech like AI to reduce cost which is labor.
Taxes can be deflationary. Which is why we need to tax the rich more than we do.
The problem with is your taking productive economy energy from one sector to give to public sector which is always waste. Govts don't make anything. MMT does not work when private sector still provide economy value.
Taxing the rich how? There wealth is not from income and they can borrow from assets which the govt inflated themselves by monetizing debt.
Right? Govt didn't create value and the productivity benefits of the fax machine and the iphone. Govt contributed to the cost via inflation and taxes..:
the reason why we have inflation rn is our debtgdp is at 120% and govt spending to gdp is at 40% of the economy so basically the govt has taken over the economy thru inflation. you can tax the rich 10x over and still wont pay for the deficits and debt. its the govt spending problem which is fiscal that has take over monetary policy.
People desperately need to know whats coming. Late stage capatalism.
W late stage capitalism
Still far far preferable to late stage socialism
Late, as in the pending DOOM of Capitalism. Imagine what happens when it REALLY sinks in the Stock Market is FINISHED...
That's a bit optimistic but 8 years?
We need the opposite of shareholder thinking. Consciously or not, we are creating a new species that will far exceed our own intelligence, and history does not bode well for the lesser intelligent species. We need the best and brightest minds from around the world to come together and create our new AI god safely and with the best interests of mankind in mind.
I keep telling both friends and family; Now is the perfect time to own a Tech Stock, With everything going on and seeing how the world is been run by AI and all Tech is here to stay and you don’t want to miss it
*Honestly i feel right now e commence among other sectors are expected to really see growth but who know i might be wrong, These days the market is filled with surprises.*
Yes, a good number of folks are raking in huge 6 figure gains in this downtrend, but such strategies are mostly successfully executed by folks with in depth market knowledge
A lot of folks downplay the role of advisors until being burnt by their own emotions. I remember couple summers back, after my lengthy divorce, I needed a good boost to help my business stay afloat, hence I researched for licensed advisors and came across someone of utmost qualifications.
How can I participate in this? I sincerely aspire to establish a secure financlal future and am eager to participate. Who is the driving force behind your success?
Mrs ava Kimberly is the licensed coach I use. Just research the name. You'd find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
Anyone else see a social credit score system. Coming to America.
OH YEAH, PUT HALF OF US OUT OF WORK BUT YOU WON'T SEE PRICES DROP BECAUSE THE MACHINE WILL REPLACE US!!!
Well, this guy will also be replaced !
They need to replace C-level executives, human resources personnel, and directors. Replacing these positions will have the most positive impact.
Fools and their money are soon parted. Pretty soon the AI companies will have all of the money and you will have none. Give me all of your secrets and all of your money, I promise not to misuse it. Learn how to grow your own food, as a peasant you will need those skills.
We have nowhere near the energy to power robots, data centers, and billions of GPUs. We have rolling blackouts when too many people use their air conditioners.
Look up data centers in orbit. This is where we’re headed. Unlimited solar power. The US Space Force is investing in this technology and some manufacturers are starting to design more resilient chips to work in space environment.
microsoft is building a 100 billion dollar nuclear facility to start. nuclear is the answer to AGI
Ridiculous. If have TWO brothers with HUGE solar installations going on next to them, one is 2,600 ACRES OF SOLAR. Both Germany and Japan have ALREADY reached a point where they have OVERBUILT for their needs during low energy demand periods.
We have ZERO concerns for the energy needs of the future between Fusion coming, and increased solar efficiency in LABS that will make its way to MANUFACTURING over the next decade.
ZERO.
We have far more than enough energy to do all these things, and much more besides. Maybe you have rolling blackouts where you live, but most of the country does just fine.
@@yanis905 We don't need data centers in orbit to have unlimited solar power.
Ago, people expected blue color job replace first.
We'll see how well this ages in 3 years, and then the next 30.
What we should be afraid of is that the AGI will replace most of the works of text, image, music, video, movies, etc., within the next three years.
+coding
@@SemereabHailemariam You mean programming? If anything, it's just going to create more jobs when companies are forced to hire engineers to fix and debug the spaghetti code that's output by these dumb chat models. But that is not a job I want to have, sounds absolutely miserable lol.
@@rayecast i do believe coding without AI create more jobs than AI do coding.
No they just change.
@@rayecast The "dumb chat models" are increasing in size, speed, and accuracy by about 10x every 6 months which corresponds quite closely with the compute increases. Any comment on the internet that doubts the capabilities of AI models will be obsolete and wrong within months. What will you say when the next iterations of Devin are running in omni-agent mode on the Project Stargate datacenter with 20,736 Nvidia Blackwell B200 GPUs connected to 10,368 Nvidia Grace CPUs at 414 exaflops max AI compute? You have to think exponentially because this is a fundamentally different kind of technology.