as a G5 fan this channel is a breath of fresh air. most media just constantly rehashes B1G/SEC content, and little coverage is ever given to MWC,AAC, and now the PAC2!
Fun fact that no one mentions. The Pac 12 conference did not sign the CFP playoff agreement. So any school that chooses to join the Pac 12 couldn't even get into the playoff unless the PAC 12 is included in the 2027 look in.
This is true! I’ll bet they would get back in it if rebuild conference but at this point who knows - they’d probably be grouped with the G5 bid I don’t think they would vote to make 6-6 again
@@CollegeUnderdogs And think about this. Why would any of the five G5 conferences vote to include a rebuilt PAC 12 in the playoff? It's another conference you have to compete with for the G5 autobid.
They got an agreement that they would be treated as an independent for two year, then would have to be part of a conference. The CFP deal put the G5 annual pay outs to be at 1.8 million per team, independent would get 360k per school (UCONN). The Beavers & WSU will get 3.6 million per school, & nD will get somewhere around 15 million I believe.
Because the Pac isn't an official conference this year. They have to get back to 8 teams minimum, but they have 2 years to do it. After that, they would qualify for one of the 5 conference champion bids if they had the top G5/G6 team. The playoff deal doesn't name the conferences, just the 5 highest rated conference champions.
@@Alohanate2004 A rebuilt Pac is automatically included in the playoff. The 5 highest rated conference champions get in, not the 4 Power 4 champions and one G5 champion (although that's what it will be almost every year.)
The MW doesn't need the Pac2, the MW is the premier conference of the west coast. Oregon state and Washington state needs to pump there breaks thinking the MW needs them
Yeah because those two teams are better than the rest of the conference, they'll be the ones bringing in the revenue. Now obviously with no other options wsu and osu shouldn't be so greedy or act like they are too good for the conference yet I understand why they would think they could bargain for more
The Mountain West as a conference is finally waking up. They hold the cards if they stick together. The PAC2 wanted to poach and keep the money. They didn’t care about the Mountain West at all. The Mountain West commissioner is no dummy. These two schools are trouble to her and her conference. Either join the Mountain West or leave us alone, especially Washington State. Hope you stay strong 💪.
eh..I think in the end it would be in the MW best interest to just merge with the PAC and keep the PAC name...it is slightly more marketable than the MW name...it would also be in the best interest of OSU and WSU to share that giant war chest with the MW if the merger were to happen...
So, when Oregon State and Washington State went with the West Coast Conference for all other sports besides football, it looked like a slap in the face to the MWC. I'm hoping for the best for Oregon State, but I can't blame the MWC for losing a lot of their enthusiasm after that move.
I realigned the conferences on my College Football 25 dynasty. Basically moved over the top schools from the MW to the Pac-12 and relegated USC and UCLA to the MW since they ruined realignment anyway. (Texas and Oklahoma also got demoted to a G5) lol
The AAC media deal is at 6.94 mil per school & the MWC is at about 4 mil. CUSA= 4-500k, MAC=670k, & the SBC is at about 500k. As far as the schedule deal between the PAC & MWC, the 2025 season is an option so it will most likely happen but it may not. Both sides need to agree to the option. BSU has been to 3 NY day bowls. I am not certain how many AAC schools have that are still in the AAC. I know Tulane has but Houston & Cincinnati are now with the B12. It is cool that they did it while in the AAC but they are gone now. As far as the PAC2 & MWC commissioners go, I believe it is positioning. They both are trying to prop up their own conferences, but in the end it make the most sense for everyone, financially, to do a merger. I don't see the AAC schools leaving the AAC at this time when the ACC maybe an option down the road. The only SBC school that might make sense is Texas State. Even Kurk Scholz (WSU President) has recently stated they need to start deciding on a path in Jan/Feb of 2025. I think some of the universities of the MWC are somewhat butthurt over some of the comments by some ADs, coaches, & fan bases acting superior tho the MWC. I don't blame them. I check out the 247 OSU site every day & I see it. Just my opinion. I enjoy your show Trey.
Would you prefer to see a merger or a rebuilt PAC? In regard to conference bids…I was just stating which conference got the bid Boise only made it 1 year in the CFP era (2014 Fiesta Bowl I think) - MAC 1 year CUSA 1 year and AAC the rest (I think) My point is that it’s actually better to be in a top heavy G5 conference rather than one that is solid head to toe bc you end up with 4 loss conference champion like Boise State was last year and I’d be willing to bet that Boise team beats Liberty (but Liberty got the bid thanks to an undefeated record helped by a weak schedule)
@@CollegeUnderdogs My point is the only playoff bids for the G5 is Cincinnati, but they are in the B12 now. G5 do not get any financial benefit pat that game, as far as the annual CFP pay outs. The B1G & SEC get 21 plus mil a year for their past performance, ACC get about 14 mil per year & the B12 gets about 13 mil per year (talking per school). The B12 get credit for just TCU & Cincinnati. The B12 lost Texas & Oklahoma. It seems as though they are basing their values on NY day bowl appearances.The G5 gets a flat 1.8 mil per school. The PAC2 get 3.6 mil for the next couple of years. UCONN (indy) gets 360k. ND gets somewhere around 15-16 million. The P2 did this to Benefit themselves & create a larger divide between them & the ACC & B12. As far as the G5, they don't really care about the G5 other than a minor league for them. The B12 & ACC view the G5 the same. As far as what I want for the Beavers & WSU as well is a home conference for a few years if not longer. Both schools have been near the bottom of the P5 (now P4) in annual athletic department funding. In 2023 OSU was 98 million & WSU around 85 million. They were last in the PAC12. I think if they have a merger and retain as much of the war chest as possible they still continue to fund at a level that far exceeds the other university members of the MWC & possibly the top of all of the G5 schools. That with good coaching & recruiting they could be at or around the top of the MWC nearly every year. No one know what will happen 5-8 years down the road. Yes, Liberty went to the NY day bowl last year but I am pretty certain if they had the CFP last year, it very well could have been SMU. Maybe I am selfish but I am long in the tooth and I want my Beavers to have some stability. BTW, The CFP selection has been & will continue to be pretty much rigged, The is why FSU is in court now.
@@jeh58see you don’t know your stuff on NY6/NYbowls. The AAC/Old Big East had the following schools make a BCS/NY Bowl as members: Memphis, Tulane, Louisville, Pitt, UCONN, Cincinnati, UCF, Houston, WVU, and USF. The MWC has or had the following schools make a BCS/NY Bowl: Utah, TCU, and Boise State (with two done as members of the WAC). That is it. Hawaii made it as a member of the WAC but not MWC. In fact, since the first year of CFP4-Selection\NY6 Selection no Mountain Worst (YES WORST) has been close and not because they beat up on each other. The best G5 conference from last two years of BCS up to two years ago was the AAC. These last two regular seasons the SBC has been the best but not in postseason games, as that distinction still remains with the AAC and ironically the weakest G5 conference in CUSA. For whatever reasons when it comes to bowl games for CUSA no matter how they are configured and constructed, they tend to shine in postseason play. Go figure?🤷♂️🤷♂️🤷♂️? The PAC 2 does not have this massive War-Chest that everyone who is a PAC Democrat Terrorist Homer liar claims. They don’t because of all the fees and penalties and other expenses that the PAC has to pay to creditors and debtors they owe. Then the settlement money can’t actually be touched until August 26, 2026 if not mistaken. So they could do a reverse merger with the WAC as an FCS conference and because it’s an entire conference moving up to FBS and not individual schools, the fees would not be 5 million dollars per school to move up to FBS. It would be less. But the PAC then talks to 3-5 other FCS powerhouses in the Pacific/Mountain/Central Time Zones about moving up and joining the PAC in 2025 for all sports and have to pay the full fees of 5 million dollars per school moving up individually. But in August 2026 with an ironclad contract reimbursement to those schools who made the move up with some of the settlement money. So in 2025 the PAC 2 schools would be the only legitimate eligible for football postseason play but if not enough bowl eligible schools and the WAC schools now in transition to FBS played nothing but FBS schools out of conference then could get a bowl invite. In 2026 with the leftover money from settlement possibly and after potentially reimbursed the FCS schools that joined individually, convince two and only two MWC members to announce in Spring of 2026 joining the PAC# (whatever they decide) in 2027 and receive financial aid and support from the PAC for making the move. Will the PAC be the best G6 conference? No. Will it be good enough some years to make the playoffs if the P4 don’t break away? Yes.
@@michaelwall3393 Michael, Louisville, Pitt, UCONN, Cincinnati, UCF, Houston, WVU, and USF are no longer in the AAC, just as Utah & TCU are not in the MWC. Really it doesn't matter because G5 confernces do not get any financial benefits the the A4 conference do. The P2 conferences made it count for them & to a lesser amount to the ACC & B12. It is how they figuring out the annual CFP monies to the conferences. The B12 lost Texas & Oklahoma to the SEC giving them more total appearances over the pat 2025 years. Same goes for the B1G, collecting USC, Washington, & Oregon. The ACC will lose FSU & Clemson and their CFP annual payout will drop. The SEC=21 million per team, B1G=21 mil, ACC=13 mil, B12=12 mil, ND= 12 mil, G5=1.8, UCONN=360k (independent). AS for your calling the "PAC Democrat Terrorist" say a lot about you as a person, and that's is not a good look. I''ll just say don't be a "Little Richard." I hope you can figure that out. This is just college football & not politics here. I don't know why I am responding to you, may be that is why you have "wall" in your handle. It's like talking to a wall. Take care and best wishes to you Michael.
The merger has to be under the Pac-12 name. The Pac-12 knows it and the MWC knows it. So I believe Gloria Nevarez will wait for a proposal and then counter will full share membership for all members of the MWC into the Pac-12 (except for Hawaii which is football only). That would be the smartest move. Then try to lure Gonzaga to join this new Pac-12. Gloria Nevarez would be a tremendous asset in this situation since she was the commissioner of the WCC prior to joining the MWC. She has relationships will people at Gonzaga and that could be very helpful.
WSU & Oregon St have absolutely Dominated the Mountain West. (Pull the Historical Records vs Mountain West Teams & see for yourself) WSU & Oregon St would almost "DOUBLE" the Television Viewership. This is an example of "Bad Poker" & Undeserving Arrogance, trying to Bluff, in order to get leverage. Drake from Locked on Big-12 ran all of the #'s & was absolutely shocked that the Big-12 initially passed on these two Teams. Just because someone at the MWC "Says Something" Doesn't make it True.
Gloria Nevarez is smart enough to know that the MW holds most of the cards. She'll wait until the Pac places a proposal in front of her. The Pac 2 has an increasing sense of urgency so they'll surely play the first card. Unless the Pac can prove there is value to the MW to move off the status quo, the MW will just remain as they are.
@@CollegeUnderdogsTeresa Gould is equally smart. She is playing this correctly. Bruised egos need soothed. The PAC will raid the top end of the MWC. Bank on it. The MWC doesn’t have more leverage. Utterly ridiculous. Yeah, sure, the MWC doesn’t want the Portland, Oregon, and Seattle, Washington markets, with schools that spend between $83-98m (vastly outpacing the top MWC budgets by a mile) on athletics per year, with P5 level facilities. Yeah, makes a ton of sense. The top end of the MWC covets P12 brand (per Canzano), and if 6 go to PAC, they slice a new media deal 8 ways instead of 14 ways, and this Version of the PAC, according to former Vice President of Fox sports, as well as the outgoing AAC commissioner both say the media rights would be worth between 8-11m each, per season. That is nearly double current MWC payout.
Notice it was Teresa Gould and not Gloria Navarez who made the comments. To me it seems we’re trying to distance ourselves as far as possible from joining the mw
@@Alohanate2004 why would we flush 250 mil down the drain and the pac 12 assets just to join the mwc? Maybe a reverse merger down the road. We’re not above the top of the mwc we understand that. But we also know what was done to us might have to be done to the bottom of the mw, in this day and age. We didn’t make the rules we’re just playing by them now. Oregon State invested 98 mil into athletics last year. SDSU was the highest in the mw at like 60 something… we’re somewhere in between the mwc and pac 12 just trying to figure out what that means.
@@HMbeav8404 Actually in 2023 SDSU was over 90 mil, AF at 69.4 mil, UNLV at 66.5 mil, CSU at 64.5 mil, BSU at 58.3 mil, Hawaii at 52.7 mil, Fresno at 51.7 mil, USU at 51.4 mil, Nevada at 48.5, Wyoming at 48.3 mil, UNM at 47 mil, & SJSU at 44.5 mil.
I don’t see why sun belt, AAC teams would leave to join a best of the rest league when strength of schedule doesn’t matter as long as you are undefeated. The money won’t add up.
I don’t either, I talked about it in a different episode The only way it makes sense is if they league could command a deal that would pay out $13-$16M per year
Pacific Atlantic coast conference.. Pacific division Pac 2 plus cal and possibly Stanford.. throw in mt west teams. Toss in smu utsa, Texas state possibly Atlantic division Acc left overs plus group of 5 powers.. Plenty of choices. The money would be more and it would kill the remaining 6 conferences
A best of the rest league would get probably 2 or 3 times the G5 TV money. And be much more likely to get a team in the playoff each year (i.e. even more cash.)
Tim skipper is a good player and good coach. He brings energy to the players/ team and inspire players to play with ruthless aggression. Look at last years bowl game where the dogs spank nmstate. Moving forward, If he recruits and develops players and wins games, he is the man for the Fresno bulldogs football program.
The ideal move for Wazzu and OSU in my opinion is to try to join the MWC as football only while also retaining the TV rights to their FB home games. That gives the two teams maximum flexibility. The question is what would be in it for the MWC?
Aresco not having concerns about the media contract could easily mean he knows it will decline. Mostly, I consider it commish speak and that is out of his hands. I’m not going to say that the Pac offers something for which the MWC must absolutely bow to a reverse merger. There’s no guarantees of a viable “best of the rest” for OSU & WSU. But let’s get down to the Mountain West’s issues: New Mexico and Wyoming are micro markets. The California schools don’t really bring their markets. San Jose State may as well be null. Fresno has tried to tap into sales tax revenue to aid their program (athletics and academics) because they don’t draw what they used to- their support is a shell of what it used to be. And San Diego State has this nice new stadium… the last two years, they’ve been the second best draw in that stadium, and next year they’ll be the third best draw in Snapdragon. UNLV might be a program on the rise, but much like San Diego, it’s a city of transplants. Unlike San Diego, all the major pro leagues want to be there now. And somehow (or maybe not) it’s the hockey team that has captured hearts and minds. Nevada… I’m not going to lie and say Reno is the only market here, but it may as well be. Plus they have a bleacher feature stadium and might have signed a deal with an incompetent devil to move basketball out of their arena and into a distant yet-to-break-ground arena on a casino property near Reno Airport. Utah State: 3rd school in a two-school state. Air Force: probably as big a national name as anything, but in terms of brand, they’re not Army or Navy. Colorado State: newer football stadium, and have a market growing enough that I’ll sit on my temptation to call it the 2nd school in a one-school state. But they’re not much of a brand. Boise State- brace yourself. The Idaho Legislature is in a war against the school (good old urban vs rural BS), and if NIL is curtailed and athletes are considered school employees, Idaho won’t pay them. People are starting to recruit against that. So is this bunch going to get a TV pay increase? I don’t think so. Not that the AAC will fare much better. And a “best of the rest” probably needs to net 50% more than the AAC just to cover increased travel costs… it’s hard to see how that happens.
Hello. Great video. I have this bad feeling that the Mountain West is going to get low balled by CBS and Fox in their media rights negotiations. I mean, what incentive is there for those networks to give more than the 3 or 4 million to the MWC when they have the Big Ten. It feels like the MWC needs them more than the networks need the MWC. Maybe I am being doom and gloom, but as. Fresno alum, I feel like my school is just stuck in a conference, getting only pennies compared to the millions the other conferences are getting. What do you think?
This video could have been made 2 years ago when I posted the same analysis of what is now unfolding. I knew this because Wall Street media analyst friends of mine back in 2018 told me the media value of all the markets. The valuations had a range from current actual over a 5 year history to potential market under certain conditions. I have seen NO evidence that ESPN or FOX have deviated from this market analysis. NONE!!! When the PAC12 had ALL its schools and still could only land a cut and paste media deal, I saw the B1G creating its own Rose Bowl Championship Game. This will still happen. Nevertheless, the Oregon State and Washington State markets were always the weakest. This means their ADs had to go to the B12 before any other schools to lock in a home. Nevertheless, their ADs held out for a magic Apple media deal. Now they will have G5 sports for the rest of their history. OSU and WSU are like Pitt and Cincinnati in that they are 2ND Tier State schools. However, they lack the potential market of a Pitt or a Cincinnati. Boise State is basically the State Flagship school in a limited state market. In this regard they are similar to West Virginia. However, it’s a 4-5 hour drive from Cincinnati to Pitt or West Virginia. Boise State to WSU or OSU is a big trip. Things are the way they are for a reason.
Great stuff!! Everything you have here is spot on 💯 This is why Aresco chose the schools he chose last round of expansion (even though it angered many fans)
@@DocSkirv You are 1 hour 15 minutes away from mattering to media decision makers at ESPN and FOX. There was a chance to package yourself with CAL and Stanford, which have good markets and good airports. However, this ship has sailed. Oregon State and Washington State cannot give themselves away for 5 years to make a P4. Both are so weak they cannot sell themselves as the basis for an AAC West Conference. IF the AAC does expand by 2026, when the MWC contract ends, then it will take some pieces including SDSU, SJSU, UNLV, Boise State, Utah State, and Air Force. These schools all have markets ESPN wants. The combination will depend on how the P3/4 balances out.
I always hear that WSU and OSu are small market teams and while their locations hold true for that you gotta aknowledge that they have a good representation in bigger markets nearby. I don't know the numbers for OSU but WSUs alumni base makes a good part of the Seattle market
@@rockerfarm6445 My comments are based on Wall Street media analysis of valuations. I am not sure YOU really comprehend what this means. OSU and WSU fans want to project themselves as worthy of P4 valuations. This is absolutely NOT accurate. Both have media value similar to an AAC Team. However, to miners dig out $2000 worth of slag to recover $500 worth of gold when gold is worth only $2500 an ounce? NO! Likewise, AAC schools looked at travel amounts and transportation hubs required to support adding OSU and WSU and passed on adding either school. Only with CAL and Stanford was adding OSU and WSU. CAL and Stanford chose to receive ONLY MBB/WBB credits to be ACC rather than get almost $9 million or more from the AAC. This isolated OSU and WSU to be MWC schools. It is possible if the MWC adds OSU and WSU, or if a “merger” occurs, a PacWest Conference might be worth $7 to $10 million per school to FOX. On the other hand, ESPN is fully committed and this might make FOX frugal. Unless another untested media partner steps up, the new MWC media deal might look like an extension not an increase. This is what it will take to be a player in College Sports Media space. You need: immediate Linear presentation; potential to expand a streaming media base; and a budget large enough to bankroll enough marginal programming to build up consistent viewership across all platforms. I do NOT see any new players capable of these commitments. Only NBC Sports and CBS Sports could be advantaged by such commitments. Of course, NBC and CBS will try and mirror ABC/ESPN by packaging Hulu and Disney with Sports. NBC has Notre Dame. It could build out to buy the PacWest or MWC and also take over the Big East. They might want to add the MAC and CUSA on the cheap. CBS would have a greater stretch to achieve this scale, BUT might want to do it with a partner. It is not clear if NBC or CBS have a serious plan for College Sports, other than Notre Dame.
I don’t know how appealing joining the ghost of the PAC12 is gonna be to other schools. As the video already points out the MW teams are kind of in a better position than the PAC right now anyway so idk why they’d leave. And as for the AAC teams that’s going to be a huge distance to travel for a lot of those schools and again as the video points out that conference has done pretty good getting bowl bids aim their own already. All the prestige is kinda stripped away from the PAC without any of the big programs left so it seems like it’d be a lateral move for AAC teams. And idk why you’d make a lateral move into a super unstable situation that could collapse again at any moment. Course, $ is always the wild card and if they throw their millions around I’m sure they can find someone to take the bait, but that’s about all the incentive I see.
eh...I dont know with the amount of $$, or lack thereof, they would make , it would even make sense to have teams so spread out..travel cost alone would put nearly every school in the red
It mostly comes down to two items. One is once they hit the 8 team threshold and they sign the CFP contract does the PAC 12 conference get an Automatic College playoff bid. Second is how much money are they willing to use to benefit the other 6 teams they need in order to keep its PAC 12 conference status.
I think we're gonna wind up with tiered conferences. Imagine a 24 team conferences split into 2 tiers of play. You could call them Big 12 premier and Big 12 Challengers. Top 2 challemgers get promoted while the bottom 2 premiers get relegated
A best-of-the-rest rebuilt Pac with the top G5 teams was always the best option for OSU and WSU (unless a Power4 league gives them a life raft). They can probably make 2 or 3x what G5 conferences make in yearly TV money (and half what the Tier2 ACC/Big12 conferences make), and have a much better chance at the 5th conference champion playoff bid each year (which equals more money and more exposure for recruiting.)
Here's a potential Pac-X rebuild with 20 teams nationally: Oregon State, Washington State, Boise State, Fresno State, Tulane, Memphis, UNLV and San Diego State (first 8.) San Jose State, Colorado State, North Texas, Rice, Air Force, UTSA, New Mexico State, and Louisiana. (get to 16, with some bigger TV markets). Then add Liberty, James Madison, Appalachian State and Coastal Carolina in the East to get to 20. That's 20 teams, 10 of which have posted at least one 10-win season in the past 2 years, and 10 teams in top 60 TV markets.
Yep! That’s the way to go. Effectively they would be the 5th power conference, not in name but in reality. They would get the 5th playoff bid every year because there’s nothing left in the other g5 conferences. That’s what they should do. But conference commissioners and school presidents are idiots so it probably won’t happen
Would ACC, as backfill, prefer OrSt & WashSt over any of the following: Tulane UConn USF Rice Air Force Army Navy Colo St UT-SA Temple Tulsa UMass SDSU SJSU UNLV Liberty James Madison Delaware W&M Villanova Georgetown Lehigh
Trey I have a question for you. What about linear television in 2030. Will cable and satellite television be around in that time period. People are cutting the cord to cable and satellite television. Streaming services like Netflix, Amazon and Apple getting involved with college football
I agree. While streaming is a bad option for schools today, it will be the norm soon. I also predict that the pay packages will come down drastically. Example, used to be that you would go to a record store and buy an album, CD, etc. You would value your investment and hope to collect a nice library of music. Today for a subscription on Spotify, you can have all the music man has ever created. The value of individual artists has gone way, way down. The same will happen to streamed college football. Advertising revenue will go down and the costs to the consumer will go way down and the streamers will not be offering mega-billion dollar deals to the Big10, the SEC, and surely not the lesser conferences.
Gould's comments is definity about next year. PAC amd MWC only have an agreement for one year. They want to finish the details before the season starts. The MWC mention this in her opening comments for the MWC media days. Gould and her said similar things. The merger talks most likely won't be serious until the season starts. See how the viewership goes. I thing TNT and CW will come into play. PAC Enterprises is producing the studio show on CW for both PAC and ACC. If that works out, that definitely will be an important bargining asset. I believe Dodds piece is just CBS positioning itself in media talks.
I think the PAC2 should collect their paychecks, then after everything is paid and settled, and they have their money to themselves, they should merge with the MWC. The MWC could benefit from the PAC-12 (14) branding, and OSU & WSU would have their money.
This literally made me laugh out loud the idea the Mountain West is “cooling off” or “doesn’t need to add” WSU and OSU. It sounds like that articles sources were from the bottom of the Mountain West who are terrified of the league collapsing because of the Pac 2. They want and need the Pac 2. Period. If they are trying to play hardball for whatever reason, it really doesn’t make sense. It’s not as if OSU and WSU would be bottom dwellers in the Mountain West like San Jose State and Nevada. They’d automatically go in being the top 2 teams in the league in pretty much every way. They definitely add a lot of value. My hope is the Pac 2 rebuild with best of Mountain West and maybe add some AAC schools if they can convince some to come on board. It would be a really strong conference.
In my opinion OSUs and WSUs fate depends on their viewership this season, while I like to point out that WSU especially has good numbers I can see the argument that this could have to do with the opponents. This season will give us insight into how much the "true" viewerbase is and what our value is
I think in the end it'll be the MW merging with the PAC since it does have a more marketable name...they'll probably keep the MW conference director..not to mention the PAC2 has access to 200+ million from winning their lawsuit that they could use to rebuild the conference..and maybe enticing the MW to move this way by offering to divvy out that $$ to MW teams
It has to do with the poaching penalties the pac agreed to to get the current MWC playing agreement, they are in a bad spot now, they do not want to take the whole MWC, but too expensive to cherry pick. They can wait a year and then get 9 MWC to dissolve the conference and avoid exit fees, (hawaii, nevada, new mexico likely left out) not sure if that cancels the poaching language in the current agreement or not? They want to keep the pac alive and rebuild that first, without giving up the war chest.
Imagine Ford losing the rights to every vehicle except the Edsall. That Ford name carries history, it's a brand. But all it vurrently has is a vehicle nobody wants. The PAC Who is a brand with two products nobody wanted. Why would anybody want to join a conference that is only alive because the valuable brands that bolted got robbed of the money they made that brand? When purchasing stock, you have to look at supply vs demand. You have to factor in respurce spending, future earnings. The PAC has a video library. That's the end of it's assets.
Man I feel like after the Big 10 and SEC and maybe Big 12 are done expanding the G5 should go regional all Virginia and NC teams in same conference all Texas teams in same conference all west coast teams and northeast and Midwest teams in same conference and Call Power 4 the National Divsion and G5 the regional division of college D1 football
I get that they wanted all that money and feel like the jilted lover but I think it would have been best to just dissolve everything with everyone and just joined the MWC. They are just postponing the inevitable. There is going to be a lot more painful consolidation throughout the NCAA. It’s going on in other industries and spaces. Just look at what is happening to legacy media and the video game industry.
eh, maybe if they didnt have a huge financial incentive to keep the PAC alive they probably already do that..but when you a possibly get your hands on over 200 million by keeping the PAC alive, why not at least try ?
@@carsonc29 it just seems to be kicking the can down the road for awhile more. It’s not sustainable. I hope they put that money into their athletic infrastructure because they will never be back to their previous levels. For whatever reason they got left standing in this first round of musical chairs but they will not be the last. There are going to be different tiers in football no matter how it breaks out. Whether it’s structurally a super league, P2 breakout, the specifics have probably already been tentatively sketched out behind the scenes. I do think it will be spun out as some type of opt in or out to evade potential antitrust issues. The threshold to pay to play will be really high.
Pac12 can’t dissolve and lose those units. They have to be willing to share some of that money or other revenue with any teams they add. Better to get something better than nothing.
ACC'S gonna need replacements for FSU and Clemson in a couple years, and that'll give Cal and Stanford conference mates on the same coast. ACC becomes the Bi-Coastal League and the Big 12 becomes the Trans-America Conference. That should go over big in the Bay Area😅
This was clearly bargaining positioning, trying to shape the public conception. The Pac 2 is in a rough spot, they both need to fill the conference and need to play for a little time in order to let all the money come in. Maybe the best plan is simply to make as-needed scheduling choices until they can get the total sum. After the money is in hand, THEN they assess the landscape and do what's financially responsible while armed with a surplus.
Mwc is good and close its makes sense for wsu and osu to join if they dont want to who cares let them waste money travling in the american which isnt even better tbh.
I do think there’s a way wazzu and Oregon state can join football only still in MW. Offer up the pac 12 network to produce all studio content. Take no tv money from football. Make your 10 team pac with WCC teams(the teams in there as of 2025). Then survive.
The MWC does want the Pac2, the only way this will work is to bring all MWC and have two separate divisions with promotion and relegation. It leaves the door open to other mid majors and/or Calford to join too once the ACC implodes. Calford won't be associated with the Cal State schools and Boise unless utterly desperate. It makes sense, but the Pac2 are not going to sign on the dotted line until their time runs out and there is no other choice for them. The Pac2 will keep their options open until then.
Yeah cause they were getting the breaks beat off them by bigger Pac-12 teams who’s fans tuned in to watch the bloodbath, don’t be shocked this year when your tv ratings fall off a cliff without having the PAC-12 subsidizing your views and revenue.
Imagine when Pac-12 merges with Mountain West, this would be called the Mountain Pacific Conference and here’s what the teams will look like: Mountain Division Air Force Arizona Arizona State Boise State Colorado State Nevada New Mexico UNLV Utah State Wyoming Pacific Division California Oregon Oregon State San Diego State San Jose State Stanford UCLA USC Washington Washington State
as a G5 fan this channel is a breath of fresh air. most media just constantly rehashes B1G/SEC content, and little coverage is ever given to MWC,AAC, and now the PAC2!
I appreciate you watching and tuning in…glad you found us! 💯💪
Fun fact that no one mentions.
The Pac 12 conference did not sign the CFP playoff agreement. So any school that chooses to join the Pac 12 couldn't even get into the playoff unless the PAC 12 is included in the 2027 look in.
This is true! I’ll bet they would get back in it if rebuild conference but at this point who knows - they’d probably be grouped with the G5 bid
I don’t think they would vote to make 6-6 again
@@CollegeUnderdogs
And think about this.
Why would any of the five G5 conferences vote to include a rebuilt PAC 12 in the playoff? It's another conference you have to compete with for the G5 autobid.
They got an agreement that they would be treated as an independent for two year, then would have to be part of a conference. The CFP deal put the G5 annual pay outs to be at 1.8 million per team, independent would get 360k per school (UCONN). The Beavers & WSU will get 3.6 million per school, & nD will get somewhere around 15 million I believe.
Because the Pac isn't an official conference this year. They have to get back to 8 teams minimum, but they have 2 years to do it. After that, they would qualify for one of the 5 conference champion bids if they had the top G5/G6 team. The playoff deal doesn't name the conferences, just the 5 highest rated conference champions.
@@Alohanate2004 A rebuilt Pac is automatically included in the playoff. The 5 highest rated conference champions get in, not the 4 Power 4 champions and one G5 champion (although that's what it will be almost every year.)
The MW doesn't need the Pac2, the MW is the premier conference of the west coast. Oregon state and Washington state needs to pump there breaks thinking the MW needs them
Nah Big Ten is the premiere conference of the West coast
MW most definitely needs OrSt & WashSt, & vice versa.
Sounds like it could be a case where the Mountain West realizes those two schools want to keep all the money and still get the benefits of a merger
Yeah because those two teams are better than the rest of the conference, they'll be the ones bringing in the revenue. Now obviously with no other options wsu and osu shouldn't be so greedy or act like they are too good for the conference yet I understand why they would think they could bargain for more
The Mountain West as a conference is finally waking up. They hold the cards if they stick together. The PAC2 wanted to poach and keep the money. They didn’t care about the Mountain West at all. The Mountain West commissioner is no dummy. These two schools are trouble to her and her conference. Either join the Mountain West or leave us alone, especially Washington State. Hope you stay strong 💪.
eh..I think in the end it would be in the MW best interest to just merge with the PAC and keep the PAC name...it is slightly more marketable than the MW name...it would also be in the best interest of OSU and WSU to share that giant war chest with the MW if the merger were to happen...
Rebrand after the merger will undoubtedly take place. PacWest conference would be the perfect name
So, when Oregon State and Washington State went with the West Coast Conference for all other sports besides football, it looked like a slap in the face to the MWC. I'm hoping for the best for Oregon State, but I can't blame the MWC for losing a lot of their enthusiasm after that move.
I realigned the conferences on my College Football 25 dynasty. Basically moved over the top schools from the MW to the Pac-12 and relegated USC and UCLA to the MW since they ruined realignment anyway. (Texas and Oklahoma also got demoted to a G5) lol
Love it lol
I’m rolling with Tulsa right now as OC haven’t messed with realignment yet
as a B12 fan, thank you for putting OU and Texas where they belong LOL
The AAC media deal is at 6.94 mil per school & the MWC is at about 4 mil. CUSA= 4-500k, MAC=670k, & the SBC is at about 500k. As far as the schedule deal between the PAC & MWC, the 2025 season is an option so it will most likely happen but it may not. Both sides need to agree to the option.
BSU has been to 3 NY day bowls. I am not certain how many AAC schools have that are still in the AAC. I know Tulane has but Houston & Cincinnati are now with the B12. It is cool that they did it while in the AAC but they are gone now.
As far as the PAC2 & MWC commissioners go, I believe it is positioning. They both are trying to prop up their own conferences, but in the end it make the most sense for everyone, financially, to do a merger. I don't see the AAC schools leaving the AAC at this time when the ACC maybe an option down the road. The only SBC school that might make sense is Texas State. Even Kurk Scholz (WSU President) has recently stated they need to start deciding on a path in Jan/Feb of 2025.
I think some of the universities of the MWC are somewhat butthurt over some of the comments by some ADs, coaches, & fan bases acting superior tho the MWC. I don't blame them. I check out the 247 OSU site every day & I see it.
Just my opinion. I enjoy your show Trey.
Would you prefer to see a merger or a rebuilt PAC?
In regard to conference bids…I was just stating which conference got the bid
Boise only made it 1 year in the CFP era (2014 Fiesta Bowl I think) - MAC 1 year CUSA 1 year and AAC the rest (I think)
My point is that it’s actually better to be in a top heavy G5 conference rather than one that is solid head to toe bc you end up with 4 loss conference champion like Boise State was last year and I’d be willing to bet that Boise team beats Liberty (but Liberty got the bid thanks to an undefeated record helped by a weak schedule)
@@CollegeUnderdogs My point is the only playoff bids for the G5 is Cincinnati, but they are in the B12 now. G5 do not get any financial benefit pat that game, as far as the annual CFP pay outs. The B1G & SEC get 21 plus mil a year for their past performance, ACC get about 14 mil per year & the B12 gets about 13 mil per year (talking per school). The B12 get credit for just TCU & Cincinnati. The B12 lost Texas & Oklahoma. It seems as though they are basing their values on NY day bowl appearances.The G5 gets a flat 1.8 mil per school. The PAC2 get 3.6 mil for the next couple of years. UCONN (indy) gets 360k. ND gets somewhere around 15-16 million. The P2 did this to Benefit themselves & create a larger divide between them & the ACC & B12. As far as the G5, they don't really care about the G5 other than a minor league for them. The B12 & ACC view the G5 the same.
As far as what I want for the Beavers & WSU as well is a home conference for a few years if not longer. Both schools have been near the bottom of the P5 (now P4) in annual athletic department funding. In 2023 OSU was 98 million & WSU around 85 million. They were last in the PAC12. I think if they have a merger and retain as much of the war chest as possible they still continue to fund at a level that far exceeds the other university members of the MWC & possibly the top of all of the G5 schools. That with good coaching & recruiting they could be at or around the top of the MWC nearly every year. No one know what will happen 5-8 years down the road.
Yes, Liberty went to the NY day bowl last year but I am pretty certain if they had the CFP last year, it very well could have been SMU. Maybe I am selfish but I am long in the tooth and I want my Beavers to have some stability. BTW, The CFP selection has been & will continue to be pretty much rigged, The is why FSU is in court now.
@@jeh58see you don’t know your stuff on NY6/NYbowls. The AAC/Old Big East had the following schools make a BCS/NY Bowl as members: Memphis, Tulane, Louisville, Pitt, UCONN, Cincinnati, UCF, Houston, WVU, and USF.
The MWC has or had the following schools make a BCS/NY Bowl: Utah, TCU, and Boise State (with two done as members of the WAC). That is it. Hawaii made it as a member of the WAC but not MWC. In fact, since the first year of CFP4-Selection\NY6 Selection no Mountain Worst (YES WORST) has been close and not because they beat up on each other. The best G5 conference from last two years of BCS up to two years ago was the AAC. These last two regular seasons the SBC has been the best but not in postseason games, as that distinction still remains with the AAC and ironically the weakest G5 conference in CUSA. For whatever reasons when it comes to bowl games for CUSA no matter how they are configured and constructed, they tend to shine in postseason play. Go figure?🤷♂️🤷♂️🤷♂️?
The PAC 2 does not have this massive War-Chest that everyone who is a PAC Democrat Terrorist Homer liar claims. They don’t because of all the fees and penalties and other expenses that the PAC has to pay to creditors and debtors they owe. Then the settlement money can’t actually be touched until August 26, 2026 if not mistaken.
So they could do a reverse merger with the WAC as an FCS conference and because it’s an entire conference moving up to FBS and not individual schools, the fees would not be 5 million dollars per school to move up to FBS. It would be less.
But the PAC then talks to 3-5 other FCS powerhouses in the Pacific/Mountain/Central Time Zones about moving up and joining the PAC in 2025 for all sports and have to pay the full fees of 5 million dollars per school moving up individually. But in August 2026 with an ironclad contract reimbursement to those schools who made the move up with some of the settlement money.
So in 2025 the PAC 2 schools would be the only legitimate eligible for football postseason play but if not enough bowl eligible schools and the WAC schools now in transition to FBS played nothing but FBS schools out of conference then could get a bowl invite.
In 2026 with the leftover money from settlement possibly and after potentially reimbursed the FCS schools that joined individually, convince two and only two MWC members to announce in Spring of 2026 joining the PAC# (whatever they decide) in 2027 and receive financial aid and support from the PAC for making the move. Will the PAC be the best G6 conference? No. Will it be good enough some years to make the playoffs if the P4 don’t break away? Yes.
@@michaelwall3393 Michael, Louisville, Pitt, UCONN, Cincinnati, UCF, Houston, WVU, and USF are no longer in the AAC, just as Utah & TCU are not in the MWC. Really it doesn't matter because G5 confernces do not get any financial benefits the the A4 conference do. The P2 conferences made it count for them & to a lesser amount to the ACC & B12. It is how they figuring out the annual CFP monies to the conferences. The B12 lost Texas & Oklahoma to the SEC giving them more total appearances over the pat 2025 years. Same goes for the B1G, collecting USC, Washington, & Oregon. The ACC will lose FSU & Clemson and their CFP annual payout will drop. The SEC=21 million per team, B1G=21 mil, ACC=13 mil, B12=12 mil, ND= 12 mil, G5=1.8, UCONN=360k (independent).
AS for your calling the "PAC Democrat Terrorist" say a lot about you as a person, and that's is not a good look. I''ll just say don't be a "Little Richard." I hope you can figure that out. This is just college football & not politics here. I don't know why I am responding to you, may be that is why you have "wall" in your handle. It's like talking to a wall. Take care and best wishes to you Michael.
The merger has to be under the Pac-12 name. The Pac-12 knows it and the MWC knows it. So I believe Gloria Nevarez will wait for a proposal and then counter will full share membership for all members of the MWC into the Pac-12 (except for Hawaii which is football only). That would be the smartest move. Then try to lure Gonzaga to join this new Pac-12. Gloria Nevarez would be a tremendous asset in this situation since she was the commissioner of the WCC prior to joining the MWC. She has relationships will people at Gonzaga and that could be very helpful.
WSU & Oregon St have absolutely Dominated the Mountain West. (Pull the Historical Records vs Mountain West Teams & see for yourself)
WSU & Oregon St would almost "DOUBLE" the Television Viewership.
This is an example of "Bad Poker" & Undeserving Arrogance, trying to Bluff, in order to get leverage.
Drake from Locked on Big-12 ran all of the #'s & was absolutely shocked that the Big-12 initially passed on these two Teams.
Just because someone at the MWC "Says Something" Doesn't make it True.
You make valid points, but keep in mind it is the PAC commissioner that’s making the comments quoted in the article
Trey remember that you can get CW on antenna tv compared to Tru TV
Gloria Nevarez is smart enough to know that the MW holds most of the cards. She'll wait until the Pac places a proposal in front of her. The Pac 2 has an increasing sense of urgency so they'll surely play the first card. Unless the Pac can prove there is value to the MW to move off the status quo, the MW will just remain as they are.
I think this is highly possible.
Yes, she’s very sharp! Visited with her in October and she’s got her ducks in a row and knows her stuff
@@CollegeUnderdogsTeresa Gould is equally smart. She is playing this correctly. Bruised egos need soothed. The PAC will raid the top end of the MWC. Bank on it. The MWC doesn’t have more leverage. Utterly ridiculous.
Yeah, sure, the MWC doesn’t want the Portland, Oregon, and Seattle, Washington markets, with schools that spend between $83-98m (vastly outpacing the top MWC budgets by a mile) on athletics per year, with P5 level facilities. Yeah, makes a ton of sense.
The top end of the MWC covets P12 brand (per Canzano), and if 6 go to PAC, they slice a new media deal 8 ways instead of 14 ways, and this Version of the PAC, according to former Vice President of Fox sports, as well as the outgoing AAC commissioner both say the media rights would be worth between 8-11m each, per season. That is nearly double current MWC payout.
The big 12 could swoop Boise st
@@RubensBarrichello. why? Worse market than OSU or WSU. Worse facilities. Worse academics. Worse TV ratings
Notice it was Teresa Gould and not Gloria Navarez who made the comments. To me it seems we’re trying to distance ourselves as far as possible from joining the mw
Good point, but reverse merger would allow PAC 2 to keep all the money between themselves and have access to CFP
The arrogance of PAC 2 schools never stops. OSU and WSU got left behind. But they think they are too good for the MW.
Classic PAC 12 hubris.
@@CollegeUnderdogs sure but a reverse merger wasn’t what was commented on
@@Alohanate2004 why would we flush 250 mil down the drain and the pac 12 assets just to join the mwc? Maybe a reverse merger down the road. We’re not above the top of the mwc we understand that. But we also know what was done to us might have to be done to the bottom of the mw, in this day and age. We didn’t make the rules we’re just playing by them now. Oregon State invested 98 mil into athletics last year. SDSU was the highest in the mw at like 60 something… we’re somewhere in between the mwc and pac 12 just trying to figure out what that means.
@@HMbeav8404 Actually in 2023 SDSU was over 90 mil, AF at 69.4 mil, UNLV at 66.5 mil, CSU at 64.5 mil, BSU at 58.3 mil, Hawaii at 52.7 mil, Fresno at 51.7 mil, USU at 51.4 mil, Nevada at 48.5, Wyoming at 48.3 mil, UNM at 47 mil, & SJSU at 44.5 mil.
PAC 2 will find themselves in the same situation they did before the others left, which is a failure to act.
It’s certainly looking that way
I don’t see why sun belt, AAC teams would leave to join a best of the rest league when strength of schedule doesn’t matter as long as you are undefeated. The money won’t add up.
I don’t either, I talked about it in a different episode
The only way it makes sense is if they league could command a deal that would pay out $13-$16M per year
@@CollegeUnderdogs which it won’t command
Pacific Atlantic coast conference..
Pacific division
Pac 2 plus cal and possibly Stanford.. throw in mt west teams. Toss in smu utsa, Texas state possibly
Atlantic division
Acc left overs plus group of 5 powers..
Plenty of choices.
The money would be more and it would kill the remaining 6 conferences
A best of the rest league would get probably 2 or 3 times the G5 TV money. And be much more likely to get a team in the playoff each year (i.e. even more cash.)
@@CollegeUnderdogs 12-15M is what a national best of the G5 league would make under the Pac banner. G5 teams make 5-10M a year now.
Tim Skipper is actually a really good coach! Check out the last game played against NM State
You think they’ll drop the interim title by seasons end? I hope he does well
I was really looking forward to Tedford having a big year this season
@CollegeUnderdogs he's a player from 97' if he does well, I think they'll keep him
Tim skipper is a good player and good coach. He brings energy to the players/ team and inspire players to play with ruthless aggression. Look at last years bowl game where the dogs spank nmstate. Moving forward, If he recruits and develops players and wins games, he is the man for the Fresno bulldogs football program.
The ideal move for Wazzu and OSU in my opinion is to try to join the MWC as football only while also retaining the TV rights to their FB home games. That gives the two teams maximum flexibility. The question is what would be in it for the MWC?
Finally found a good podcast that covers the MWC. Liked and followed.
Appreciate you tuning in 💯🤝
Aresco not having concerns about the media contract could easily mean he knows it will decline. Mostly, I consider it commish speak and that is out of his hands.
I’m not going to say that the Pac offers something for which the MWC must absolutely bow to a reverse merger. There’s no guarantees of a viable “best of the rest” for OSU & WSU. But let’s get down to the Mountain West’s issues:
New Mexico and Wyoming are micro markets.
The California schools don’t really bring their markets. San Jose State may as well be null. Fresno has tried to tap into sales tax revenue to aid their program (athletics and academics) because they don’t draw what they used to- their support is a shell of what it used to be. And San Diego State has this nice new stadium… the last two years, they’ve been the second best draw in that stadium, and next year they’ll be the third best draw in Snapdragon.
UNLV might be a program on the rise, but much like San Diego, it’s a city of transplants. Unlike San Diego, all the major pro leagues want to be there now. And somehow (or maybe not) it’s the hockey team that has captured hearts and minds.
Nevada… I’m not going to lie and say Reno is the only market here, but it may as well be. Plus they have a bleacher feature stadium and might have signed a deal with an incompetent devil to move basketball out of their arena and into a distant yet-to-break-ground arena on a casino property near Reno Airport.
Utah State: 3rd school in a two-school state.
Air Force: probably as big a national name as anything, but in terms of brand, they’re not Army or Navy.
Colorado State: newer football stadium, and have a market growing enough that I’ll sit on my temptation to call it the 2nd school in a one-school state. But they’re not much of a brand.
Boise State- brace yourself. The Idaho Legislature is in a war against the school (good old urban vs rural BS), and if NIL is curtailed and athletes are considered school employees, Idaho won’t pay them. People are starting to recruit against that.
So is this bunch going to get a TV pay increase? I don’t think so. Not that the AAC will fare much better. And a “best of the rest” probably needs to net 50% more than the AAC just to cover increased travel costs… it’s hard to see how that happens.
Hello. Great video. I have this bad feeling that the Mountain West is going to get low balled by CBS and Fox in their media rights negotiations. I mean, what incentive is there for those networks to give more than the 3 or 4 million to the MWC when they have the Big Ten. It feels like the MWC needs them more than the networks need the MWC. Maybe I am being doom and gloom, but as. Fresno alum, I feel like my school is just stuck in a conference, getting only pennies compared to the millions the other conferences are getting. What do you think?
This video could have been made 2 years ago when I posted the same analysis of what is now unfolding. I knew this because Wall Street media analyst friends of mine back in 2018 told me the media value of all the markets. The valuations had a range from current actual over a 5 year history to potential market under certain conditions. I have seen NO evidence that ESPN or FOX have deviated from this market analysis. NONE!!!
When the PAC12 had ALL its schools and still could only land a cut and paste media deal, I saw the B1G creating its own Rose Bowl Championship Game. This will still happen. Nevertheless, the Oregon State and Washington State markets were always the weakest. This means their ADs had to go to the B12 before any other schools to lock in a home. Nevertheless, their ADs held out for a magic Apple media deal. Now they will have G5 sports for the rest of their history.
OSU and WSU are like Pitt and Cincinnati in that they are 2ND Tier State schools. However, they lack the potential market of a Pitt or a Cincinnati. Boise State is basically the State Flagship school in a limited state market. In this regard they are similar to West Virginia. However, it’s a 4-5 hour drive from Cincinnati to Pitt or West Virginia. Boise State to WSU or OSU is a big trip. Things are the way they are for a reason.
Great stuff!! Everything you have here is spot on 💯
This is why Aresco chose the schools he chose last round of expansion (even though it angered many fans)
Oregon State lacks a market? It is an hour and 15 out of PDX which is the #23 market in the country with 2.5m people.
@@DocSkirv You are 1 hour 15 minutes away from mattering to media decision makers at ESPN and FOX. There was a chance to package yourself with CAL and Stanford, which have good markets and good airports. However, this ship has sailed. Oregon State and Washington State cannot give themselves away for 5 years to make a P4. Both are so weak they cannot sell themselves as the basis for an AAC West Conference. IF the AAC does expand by 2026, when the MWC contract ends, then it will take some pieces including SDSU, SJSU, UNLV, Boise State, Utah State, and Air Force. These schools all have markets ESPN wants. The combination will depend on how the P3/4 balances out.
I always hear that WSU and OSu are small market teams and while their locations hold true for that you gotta aknowledge that they have a good representation in bigger markets nearby. I don't know the numbers for OSU but WSUs alumni base makes a good part of the Seattle market
@@rockerfarm6445 My comments are based on Wall Street media analysis of valuations. I am not sure YOU really comprehend what this means. OSU and WSU fans want to project themselves as worthy of P4 valuations. This is absolutely NOT accurate. Both have media value similar to an AAC Team. However, to miners dig out $2000 worth of slag to recover $500 worth of gold when gold is worth only $2500 an ounce? NO! Likewise, AAC schools looked at travel amounts and transportation hubs required to support adding OSU and WSU and passed on adding either school. Only with CAL and Stanford was adding OSU and WSU. CAL and Stanford chose to receive ONLY MBB/WBB credits to be ACC rather than get almost $9 million or more from the AAC. This isolated OSU and WSU to be MWC schools.
It is possible if the MWC adds OSU and WSU, or if a “merger” occurs, a PacWest Conference might be worth $7 to $10 million per school to FOX. On the other hand, ESPN is fully committed and this might make FOX frugal. Unless another untested media partner steps up, the new MWC media deal might look like an extension not an increase.
This is what it will take to be a player in College Sports Media space. You need: immediate Linear presentation; potential to expand a streaming media base; and a budget large enough to bankroll enough marginal programming to build up consistent viewership across all platforms. I do NOT see any new players capable of these commitments. Only NBC Sports and CBS Sports could be advantaged by such commitments. Of course, NBC and CBS will try and mirror ABC/ESPN by packaging Hulu and Disney with Sports. NBC has Notre Dame. It could build out to buy the PacWest or MWC and also take over the Big East. They might want to add the MAC and CUSA on the cheap. CBS would have a greater stretch to achieve this scale, BUT might want to do it with a partner. It is not clear if NBC or CBS have a serious plan for College Sports, other than Notre Dame.
I don’t know how appealing joining the ghost of the PAC12 is gonna be to other schools. As the video already points out the MW teams are kind of in a better position than the PAC right now anyway so idk why they’d leave. And as for the AAC teams that’s going to be a huge distance to travel for a lot of those schools and again as the video points out that conference has done pretty good getting bowl bids aim their own already. All the prestige is kinda stripped away from the PAC without any of the big programs left so it seems like it’d be a lateral move for AAC teams. And idk why you’d make a lateral move into a super unstable situation that could collapse again at any moment.
Course, $ is always the wild card and if they throw their millions around I’m sure they can find someone to take the bait, but that’s about all the incentive I see.
Best possible conference:
Oregon St
Washington St
SDSU
Fresno St
Boise St
Colorado St
UTSA
Tulane
Memphis
South Florida
ECU
Air Force
Navy
Army
eh...I dont know with the amount of $$, or lack thereof, they would make , it would even make sense to have teams so spread out..travel cost alone would put nearly every school in the red
It mostly comes down to two items. One is once they hit the 8 team threshold and they sign the CFP contract does the PAC 12 conference get an Automatic College playoff bid. Second is how much money are they willing to use to benefit the other 6 teams they need in order to keep its PAC 12 conference status.
I think we're gonna wind up with tiered conferences. Imagine a 24 team conferences split into 2 tiers of play. You could call them Big 12 premier and Big 12 Challengers.
Top 2 challemgers get promoted while the bottom 2 premiers get relegated
A best-of-the-rest rebuilt Pac with the top G5 teams was always the best option for OSU and WSU (unless a Power4 league gives them a life raft). They can probably make 2 or 3x what G5 conferences make in yearly TV money (and half what the Tier2 ACC/Big12 conferences make), and have a much better chance at the 5th conference champion playoff bid each year (which equals more money and more exposure for recruiting.)
The Mountain West has more upset Big bowl wins then any other league. Last few years, those teams where pitiful.
Here's a potential Pac-X rebuild with 20 teams nationally:
Oregon State, Washington State, Boise State, Fresno State, Tulane, Memphis, UNLV and San Diego State (first 8.)
San Jose State, Colorado State, North Texas, Rice, Air Force, UTSA, New Mexico State, and Louisiana. (get to 16, with some bigger TV markets).
Then add Liberty, James Madison, Appalachian State and Coastal Carolina in the East to get to 20.
That's 20 teams, 10 of which have posted at least one 10-win season in the past 2 years, and 10 teams in top 60 TV markets.
Yep! That’s the way to go. Effectively they would be the 5th power conference, not in name but in reality. They would get the 5th playoff bid every year because there’s nothing left in the other g5 conferences. That’s what they should do. But conference commissioners and school presidents are idiots so it probably won’t happen
Would ACC, as backfill, prefer OrSt & WashSt over any of the following:
Tulane
UConn
USF
Rice
Air Force
Army
Navy
Colo St
UT-SA
Temple
Tulsa
UMass
SDSU
SJSU
UNLV
Liberty
James Madison
Delaware
W&M
Villanova
Georgetown
Lehigh
You forgot abou UCF & Houson NY6 as members of the AAC
Yep!! Good call!!
@@CollegeUnderdogsMemphis made the cotton bowl in 2019
I can't stand that new kicking meter! It's suck a pain in the ass fr fr 😒.
I hate it
Trey I have a question for you. What about linear television in 2030. Will cable and satellite television be around in that time period. People are cutting the cord to cable and satellite television. Streaming services like Netflix, Amazon and Apple getting involved with college football
I think this is a great point and I agree that the linear/streaming issue may not be relevant come 2030
@@CollegeUnderdogs Trey you need to talk about this on your podcast
I agree. While streaming is a bad option for schools today, it will be the norm soon. I also predict that the pay packages will come down drastically. Example, used to be that you would go to a record store and buy an album, CD, etc. You would value your investment and hope to collect a nice library of music. Today for a subscription on Spotify, you can have all the music man has ever created. The value of individual artists has gone way, way down. The same will happen to streamed college football. Advertising revenue will go down and the costs to the consumer will go way down and the streamers will not be offering mega-billion dollar deals to the Big10, the SEC, and surely not the lesser conferences.
Gould's comments is definity about next year. PAC amd MWC only have an agreement for one year. They want to finish the details before the season starts. The MWC mention this in her opening comments for the MWC media days. Gould and her said similar things. The merger talks most likely won't be serious until the season starts. See how the viewership goes. I thing TNT and CW will come into play. PAC Enterprises is producing the studio show on CW for both PAC and ACC. If that works out, that definitely will be an important bargining asset. I believe Dodds piece is just CBS positioning itself in media talks.
Good stuff… thank you for sharing!
I think the PAC2 should collect their paychecks, then after everything is paid and settled, and they have their money to themselves, they should merge with the MWC. The MWC could benefit from the PAC-12 (14) branding, and OSU & WSU would have their money.
This literally made me laugh out loud the idea the Mountain West is “cooling off” or “doesn’t need to add” WSU and OSU. It sounds like that articles sources were from the bottom of the Mountain West who are terrified of the league collapsing because of the Pac 2.
They want and need the Pac 2. Period. If they are trying to play hardball for whatever reason, it really doesn’t make sense. It’s not as if OSU and WSU would be bottom dwellers in the Mountain West like San Jose State and Nevada. They’d automatically go in being the top 2 teams in the league in pretty much every way. They definitely add a lot of value.
My hope is the Pac 2 rebuild with best of Mountain West and maybe add some AAC schools if they can convince some to come on board. It would be a really strong conference.
In my opinion OSUs and WSUs fate depends on their viewership this season, while I like to point out that WSU especially has good numbers I can see the argument that this could have to do with the opponents. This season will give us insight into how much the "true" viewerbase is and what our value is
I’m playing as a OC at MTSU using the Ohio State playbook.
I think in the end it'll be the MW merging with the PAC since it does have a more marketable name...they'll probably keep the MW conference director..not to mention the PAC2 has access to 200+ million from winning their lawsuit that they could use to rebuild the conference..and maybe enticing the MW to move this way by offering to divvy out that $$ to MW teams
It has to do with the poaching penalties the pac agreed to to get the current MWC playing agreement, they are in a bad spot now, they do not want to take the whole MWC, but too expensive to cherry pick. They can wait a year and then get 9 MWC to dissolve the conference and avoid exit fees, (hawaii, nevada, new mexico likely left out) not sure if that cancels the poaching language in the current agreement or not? They want to keep the pac alive and rebuild that first, without giving up the war chest.
Somethings gotta give
Hah! New Mexico isn't getting left out, if anyone is it would be Hawaii, Nevada, and San Jose State
ineligible man down field in the game made me give up on all RPO plays
I’ve been fine on regular RPOs but those Slow Mesh ones it was happening way too often!! Almost broke my controller
Imagine Ford losing the rights to every vehicle except the Edsall. That Ford name carries history, it's a brand. But all it vurrently has is a vehicle nobody wants.
The PAC Who is a brand with two products nobody wanted. Why would anybody want to join a conference that is only alive because the valuable brands that bolted got robbed of the money they made that brand? When purchasing stock, you have to look at supply vs demand. You have to factor in respurce spending, future earnings.
The PAC has a video library. That's the end of it's assets.
Would watch the heck out of a Pac2 + best of the MWC/AAC league
Man I feel like after the Big 10 and SEC and maybe Big 12 are done expanding the G5 should go regional all Virginia and NC teams in same conference all Texas teams in same conference all west coast teams and northeast and Midwest teams in same conference and Call Power 4 the National Divsion and G5 the regional division of college D1 football
The Mountain West could use Oregon State but does not need Washington State
I get that they wanted all that money and feel like the jilted lover but I think it would have been best to just dissolve everything with everyone and just joined the MWC. They are just postponing the inevitable. There is going to be a lot more painful consolidation throughout the NCAA. It’s going on in other industries and spaces. Just look at what is happening to legacy media and the video game industry.
I also think they lost the moral ground when they expressed interest in doing onto others what was done to them.
eh, maybe if they didnt have a huge financial incentive to keep the PAC alive they probably already do that..but when you a possibly get your hands on over 200 million by keeping the PAC alive, why not at least try ?
@@carsonc29 it just seems to be kicking the can down the road for awhile more. It’s not sustainable. I hope they put that money into their athletic infrastructure because they will never be back to their previous levels. For whatever reason they got left standing in this first round of musical chairs but they will not be the last. There are going to be different tiers in football no matter how it breaks out. Whether it’s structurally a super league, P2 breakout, the specifics have probably already been tentatively sketched out behind the scenes. I do think it will be spun out as some type of opt in or out to evade potential antitrust issues. The threshold to pay to play will be really high.
Pac12 can’t dissolve and lose those units. They have to be willing to share some of that money or other revenue with any teams they add. Better to get something better than nothing.
ACC'S gonna need replacements for FSU and Clemson in a couple years, and that'll give Cal and Stanford conference mates on the same coast. ACC becomes the Bi-Coastal League and the Big 12 becomes the Trans-America Conference. That should go over big in the Bay Area😅
Meh, there's zero chance they were going to MWC anyway. Far more likely is and was MWC teams heading to the Pac12
Rebuild PAC12 by recruiting Hawaii, BYU, Boise St, UNLV, San Diego St, Fresno St, Colorado St, Montana St, Montana, and Gonzaga
Haha you must not know how anything works
This was clearly bargaining positioning, trying to shape the public conception.
The Pac 2 is in a rough spot, they both need to fill the conference and need to play for a little time in order to let all the money come in.
Maybe the best plan is simply to make as-needed scheduling choices until they can get the total sum.
After the money is in hand, THEN they assess the landscape and do what's financially responsible while armed with a surplus.
Mwc is good and close its makes sense for wsu and osu to join if they dont want to who cares let them waste money travling in the american which isnt even better tbh.
I do think there’s a way wazzu and Oregon state can join football only still in MW. Offer up the pac 12 network to produce all studio content. Take no tv money from football. Make your 10 team pac with WCC teams(the teams in there as of 2025). Then survive.
The MWC does want the Pac2, the only way this will work is to bring all MWC and have two separate divisions with promotion and relegation. It leaves the door open to other mid majors and/or Calford to join too once the ACC implodes. Calford won't be associated with the Cal State schools and Boise unless utterly desperate. It makes sense, but the Pac2 are not going to sign on the dotted line until their time runs out and there is no other choice for them. The Pac2 will keep their options open until then.
Oregon St and Wa St think they are bigger than they really are.... back to G5 you go!
They aint coming to the big 12 if they were they would have came with the 4 schools they better eat some humble pie and go to the mountain west
Im sorry but WSU brings in more views than 6-8 MW teams combined 😂
Yeah cause they were getting the breaks beat off them by bigger Pac-12 teams who’s fans tuned in to watch the bloodbath, don’t be shocked this year when your tv ratings fall off a cliff without having the PAC-12 subsidizing your views and revenue.
Imagine when Pac-12 merges with Mountain West, this would be called the Mountain Pacific Conference and here’s what the teams will look like:
Mountain Division
Air Force
Arizona
Arizona State
Boise State
Colorado State
Nevada
New Mexico
UNLV
Utah State
Wyoming
Pacific Division
California
Oregon
Oregon State
San Diego State
San Jose State
Stanford
UCLA
USC
Washington
Washington State
LOL.
That would be an epic conference!
This is funny. You forgot about Utah altogether.
@@rfrmac1 Oops!