Would an ACC Implosion Lead to More Relegation?
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- čas přidán 27. 08. 2024
- As rumors swirl about the potential implosion of the Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC), many are left wondering about the future of its member schools. In this video, we dive deep into the scenarios that could see Wake Forest, Boston College, and Cal facing relegation or realignment to Group of 5 conferences.
We'll cover:
- The current state of the ACC and the factors contributing to its possible collapse.
- Clip of Paul Finebaum from a week ago stating there are several ACC teams that would draw no interest from P2
- Potential outcomes for Wake Forest, Boston College, and Cal if the ACC disbands.
- Comparisons with past conference realignments and what we can learn from them.
Join us for an in-depth analysis of this developing situation and what it means for college sports as a whole. Don't forget to like, comment, and subscribe for more updates on this and other major sports news!
#CollegeFootball #WakeForest #BostonCollege #Cal #ConferenceRealignment
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College sports have been so broken and ran so poorly and fragmented for so long. I can’t wait till we get to some stability. At the end of the tunnel I hope the sport is going to enter into a new renaissance. It has the potential to be awesome.
Well said - stability and parity would be nice
If ESPN doesn't extend the deal then The Metro is coming back....UCONN, Pitt, Cuse, Louisville, NC State, Memphis, USF, VT, Tulane. Then the Metro will get a new deal with Turner, CW and Apple. It may make around the same as the Big 12. Then when the Big 12 TV deal is up they go after Cincy, WVU and UCF.
Lol
Highly unlikely Cal and Stanford reverse course and rejoin a 4 team PAC. Especially now that a MW merger is a high probability.
Not really a merger , all of the mountain west isn't going to the Pac 12.
It’s tough cause if they got to choose the schools they’d do it.. but we own the conference and I’d hope we’d tell them to kick rocks if they complain about Boises academics
If the ACC imploded, the remaining teams would still have a year to add members to remain a conference. During this time, the ACC would still have an automatic bye the playoffs. This is something that only four leagues currently possess. So the ACC would really just have to add teams from all over the country securing TV markets to entice the best new TV deal it could get.
If this happens, the ACC really needs to get new leadership. All they really need to do is get a private equity firm to come in. Have them figure out how much it’s gonna take to get Notre Dame to join the conference. Pay them that and then pay Clemson and Florida State as much as the teams in the Big Ten, give the rest the teams around 55 million a year and reward whoever gets to the championship game. Well I can extra 10 million and an extra 10 million for every playoff level they reach. A private equity firm invested $1 billion into the ACC and got Notre Dame, Florida State Clemson, Miami, North Carolina Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, NC State, and Pittsburgh brands to grow, they would have their investment back within five years.
But there’s too much pride and arrogance for that so they’ll just blow the whole thing up. Notre Dame can be mid-level Big Ten team in Clemson and Florida State could be like Tennessee..
What you say in the first paragraph is not true. The current agreement does not say that the “P4” get an automatic bye, it says that the 4 highest ranked winners of their conferences get a bye. The assumption is that that will be the P4 winners, but if a P4 conference would lose a lot of their top tier teams, then a G5 conference could easily surpass their champion in rankings and win the bye.
They will not have lost the automatic bid until another team is put in their place. Therefore, a conference would have roughly a year to make the conference robust enough to ensure they don’t lose spot. This will be appealing to other teams you are in conferences that are not currently considered one of the power 4.
The pitch would be joint us to keep what we’ve got, or fight with the other six conferences to see who gets the bid each year.
My statement was based off reality not contractual agreement .
I know there has been some conversation about FSU and Clemson coming to the Big 12, which is obviously fine by me, because it bolsters UCF in the Big 12. But as a Cincinnati fan, I would really like to see Pitt and Louisville in the conference as well, to get some old rivalries back alongside our budding rivalries with Houston and UCF.
I do see Louisville joining the Big 12 because geography in the same area with Cincinnati and West Virginia .
They would be good addition to B12
@@CollegeUnderdogs Trey I have a question for you. I have been listening to other podcasts about what Josh Pate says. He sent out a cryptic message about the ACC losing more members.
Seems like geography matters less and less every day
@CollegeUnderdogs only 3 teams can come up with 500 million buyout. Clemson, FSU, and Miami with the Mas brothers! For anyone else to leave 8 teams have to vote out of GOR. They are stuck! And the 3 incoming members would be in favor of the conference staying intact. Miami getting AAU in 23 makes them interesting to the B1G as they look at branding and different regions or new regions of the country. Those 3 bolt. Nobody else does! League stays as is. As a Memphis fan I hate that. But I stopped hoping long ago. If DUKE and UNC could join the SEC or B1G then I see USF and Memphis getting an invite. But me wanting more for my team as always. I doubt it happens because what I as a fan want never happens. Lol I quit on the X12 after the 4 corners and said no matter how good our school is its never enough.
Well for example if Norte Dame join the Big Ten and take Stanford with them. That leaves California without much options here. I could see ACC raiding the American to backfill their conference. This all depends on how many schools leave the ACC.
Yeah I talked about that Stanford/ND connection
If the ACC is left with Wake, BC, and Cal…I don’t know that they’ll be in position to raid anyone
Even in a worst-case situation. Memphis, USF, Tulane, Wazzu and others will be interested.
@drgat6953 yep
And: UConn, OrSt, Rice, etc. etc.
And the ACC privates could all stick together along with UVA, GT, Cal, maybe Pitt.
FSU, Clemson, UNC, NCSt are likely headed to the SEC or Big10, unless the ACC or Big12 offer to pay/rent them for $75 million to $100 million per year
@@CollegeUnderdogsBoise State, Oregon State, Washington State, and Memphis?
If the ACC added Oregon State, Washington State, San Diego State, and Boise State they'd have a very solid western division and the travel problem would be mitigated somewhat.
Just remember FRESNO STATE is better than SDSU, Bosie, and Washington State
@@FresnoState101not in terms of realignment and not all time lol.
@@FresnoState101Very biased take
i think the ACC explodes and is eaten by the B10, B12, and SEC. the few bottom feeders left (SMU, Cal, Stanford, Wake Forest, Duke, Boston College, Georgia Tech, Syracuse) backfill with the pac 2, the few remaining big programs in the AAC (USF, Tulane, Memphis), the top of the mountain west (SDSU, Boise, Colorado state), and Liberty
that makes a 16 team conference that would be competitive with the big 12, and is evenly divided between "east" and "west"
Cal
Stanford
Oregon ST
Washington ST
Boise ST
Colorado ST
SDSU
SMU
Wake Forest
Duke
Boston College
Georgia Tech
USF
Tulane
Memphis
Liberty
If that does happen, I don’t believe Duke, GT, or Cuse get left behind
@BE_
INTERESTING scenario
@@CollegeUnderdogsyou might be right, but I think they would be left out based on everything else thus far with predictions and projections. I would also add to that list he gave JMU, App State, CCU, and either Rice or UTSA. And if they were able to lure in UCONN, don’t rule out newly promoted Delaware to D1A football and long-standing giant killer in Marshall as well. In other words, I could see the ACC going to 20.
They would also want all three service academies as full members; and with Stanford and Cal still in along with East Coast AAU schools, Boise State would probably not get added but Rice, UTSA, Tulsa, CCU, App State, JMU, Marshall, Delaware, UCONN, Toledo, Buffalo, and Miami-Ohio would be strong candidates for consideration for additions to the ACC if they expand along with other schools listed.
No ACC teams other than Louisville and maybe Pitt will go to the big 12. If the B1G and SEC decide they are full after taking 1-2 teams each, the ACC will just add Tulane, UConn, and maybe one other school to fill their places.
Another thing, I don’t understand why Stanford and ND are tied at the hip. They play one one-sided football game a year that draws a smaller audience that Army/Navy.
We helped start the Mountain West Conference and have a sister school, Utah State so we have an interest in the Mountain West. If things go pear shaped we will all be in a G5 conferences. And this is going to bad for all of us.
I’m not up to speed on what could go wrong for y’all
You think Utah is in possible danger?
(I did meet Coach Whit at PAC media days a couple years ago and he was the nicest, most down to earth dude)
The B1G and SEC are not big enough to absorb all of the ACC schools which may want to move to a P2 Conference. Why would the SEC want to add either Florida State or Clemson. We are talking about doubling States for mainly 1 sport, football, based on a single successful HC at Clemson. We have seen years of Florida State struggling. Miami (FL) is still dreaming. Virginia Tech is small market. Duke, Boston College and Syracuse are private, limited appeal schools. Pitt has no place to go. Wake Forest is only ACC because it joined early.
UNC, NC State, Virginia, and Georgia Tech because of its market, all might find P2 homes. If things break against the B1G, maybe Clemson and/or Florida State could get invites to add States. The B1G really wants Virginia and UNC.
Notre Dame wants to do its own thing but those days are numbered. The B1G looks like a natural fit but only on B1G terms. Notre Dame might have to save the ACC to keep some kind of control.
The B12 is full. Only adding big name schools will matter and it will NOT raise the media payment, only stop dilution. I cannot see expansion.
ESPN does NOT want to destroy its ACCN. However, the media payment part could be limited. I see AAC backfilling to keep up interest. It is not clear who the backfill might be. The ACC and B12 may end up trading schools and having an OOC game arrangement. Or it could be 1 League with 2 Conferences. This is all TBD.
Yormark talks like he’s open to add more but who knows
FSU/Clemson sure are acting like they have a landing spot once out of the ACC
Wow, there are so many inaccuracies in your post.
@@chrisg4931 Making a negative post without listing at least some of what you call inaccuracies is NOT what the Underdogs site has been about. This is no one running from a debate on legitimate grey areas. But many schools are full of themselves. So if you have real challenges, post them for peer review.
PS: My forecasts of College Football Conference Consolidation was 1ST made in 2017 and 2018. The maximum expansion totals for the B1G and SEC occurred. What happened to the PAC12 occurred, EXCEPT for Oregon State and Washington State. I made all these forecasts based on media market analytics and Conferences appetite for expansion.
Can the ACC keep up with the changes occurring? I forecasted Yes. There are too many good schools with decent markets to all be absorbed into the B1G and SEC. However, I also suggested the B1G and SEC could compete over national quality AAU schools like Tennessee and Missouri if the SEC expands to the point of dilution. This is still a threat.
This is the breakdown:
B1G = AAU schools with great athletics.
SEC = Culturally based schools with top athletics.
B12 = Western focused 2ND Tier Public and Private schools with at least 1 great sport in football and MBB.
ACC = Eastern focused 2ND Tier Public and Private schools with at least 1 great sport in football and MBB.
G4 = Left behind smaller market 2ND Tier schools, 3RD Tier schools some with a commuter school or teacher’s college history.
CUSA and FCS = All other lower FBS and want to be FBS schools.
SMU would not be added to any of the other 3 power conferences as don’t qualify academically or just not needed. Big12 has TCU, so no need for SMU. SMU is either hoping ACC survives or goes back to AAC or goes to SBC if it continues to rise and overtake the top Non-Autonomy conferences status.
I’m still not sure how likely it is that the ACC implodes, but it’s starting to feel a lot like last summer
@@CollegeUnderdogs Trey I have a question for you. Do you think that conferences will pass 20 schools maybe up to 24 schools. Do you think that 24 schools in a conference is too many schools.
In your scenario, I think Syracuse would get left behind as well. I am kinda thinking the ACC won't implode. However, I don't think it is certain if FSU & Clemson leave that they will add my Beavers & WSU. Stanford has long wanted OSU & WSU out of the PAC12. I think the ACC would push for AAU schools. I don't think that would be smart but whatever. The ACC looks at itself as an elite conference. The B12 now would rather expand in the East, they are as for west as they want to go. I doubt the B12 would add OSU & WSU, they had plenty of opportunities to do so and didn't.
I have seen some podcasting pundits see the PAC2 (short of a P4 offer) selectively add G5 teams from the MWC & AAC. Some of what I have seen is 4-6 MWC teams: BSU, Fresno St, SDSU, CSU, AF, UNLV. AAC teams I have seen referenced have been: UTSA, Tulane, Memphis, & posible So. Florida. All of this would be contingent on what kid of media deal they could get. I's seen guesses from 10-14 million per school. The money would have to be worth it in both the short term & long term for the AAC schools. This would make for the strongest G5 conference by far.
The Big Mountain Podcast, a MWC guy & a B1G guy, are certain it will be a merger of the MWC to the PAC.
There also is a option if OSU & WSU can convince 9 of the 12 teams to close down the MWC then the PAC will add those 9 teams.
My self, I am tired of all of this crap and want it to just hurry up & get settled. I am getting long in the tooth & want my OSU Beavers to find a home & get in with sports.
Good stuff 58
I think a merger is most likely too at this point…I’m going to give my reasoning for it on next show
I’ll still be keeping an eye on how this ACC stuff plays out
Syracuse & GT had great media viewership numbers in 2023. They're not getting relegated... yet. They had better numbers than all ACC except: FSU, Clemson, UNC & maybe NCSt.
@@CharlesFosterMalloy It is obviously more than viewership the TV companies care about. Oregon State & WSU had better numbers than ASU, Arizona, Colorado, Stanford and CAL. Colorado was better last year due to coach Sanders. I think they due take viewership into consideration somewhat, but brand & numbers of TVs account probably more. On the field performance counts somewhat as well. Would Syracuse & GT get relegated if the ACC implodes? I have no Idea. Don't expect things to be fair, they won't be. They weren't fair to my Beavers & WSU.
@@CharlesFosterMalloy Not to mention were they fair when they did the splits of the House lawsuits? Ask that to the schools in the G5 & FCS?
Oregon State and Wazzu don't meet the ACC academic standards, so Tulane and UCOnn are more likely.
After reading and listening to the doom and gloom rhetoric I believe now that the ACC will survive. Weakened for sure but with a pulse. I can also see a scenario where 12-16 of the best Group of 5 schools find a way to make a new conference and be better than the ACC. Of their 3 additions Cal and Stanford actually weakened them bringing little to the table but academics.
I think that adding Cal and Stanford was pretty much the tipping point for Clemson, FSU, and UNC to leave. They already felt like they were in a deficit on money coming in, but now are going to be required to travel to San Fran to play. That is way too far for their fan base to travel.
Coast to Coast conference could be interesting with old pac members and acc members, lots traveling but those teams would all be marketable games compared to there close g5 options
Could some of the acc teams move to the big east if the Acc blows up. I feel like BC, Syracuse, and Wake could be the only ones left if the conference explodes.
You have to blame on North Carolina for created massive problems that could lead to major realignment. On the other hand, they need new commissioner with ambition plan and better vision than John Swofford does. At this point, it'd be difficult for ACC to add major teams ,so they will need to make decisions how to proceed without getting killed like I mean North Carolina schools want to focus on academic while Clemson and Florida State want to focus winning championship. This mean teams prefer academic should join Big 10 then ACC can hope to invite West Virginia, Cincinnati, Memphis, Connecticut, and maybe Rutgers/Maryland (which is due to rivalries of WVU, Pittsburgh, Virginia Tech, and Syracuse). I'd like to see ACC to avoid adding too many same state schools that's last thing they need.
I mean, freaking Rutgers got in, so anything is possible. But I’d say Wake Forest and Syracuse are in the most danger.
People got so bored they had to restart the same rumor mill from last year. Typical. The ACC ain’t going anywhere.
This has been my thinking as well, which is why I haven’t really cared to comment on it too much
However, the 2025 “look-in” caught my attention & I do believe the way things play out with FSU/Clemson will determine how that goes
@@CollegeUnderdogs ESPN is making so much money hand over fist they still will continue the ACC GOR, no questions asked post 2027 after that look in. ACCN is a gravy train
The ACC will survive. The question is how many teams will leave and when. If it is more than 2-3 they will backfill.
Can we just have all of the conferences implode and every team be independent and then make conferences after a few years lol
At this point, I’ll take it lol
My guess is the ACC will stay intact. That FSU and Clemson will succeed in negotiating a better deal (higher %) from the ACC. It may not be BIG money but better than what they've been bellyaching about.
Even a 50% revenue shar in the big ten is significantly more money than a full ACC share.
SMU at a minimum COULD and likely WOULD join STAN & CAL to the PacX, worst case scenario.
More likely, the ACC Privates stick together, aling with Cal and a few otyers, UVA in particular, maybe GT & Pitt, and they backfill with WadhSt, OrSt, Tulane, UConn, Rice, USF; and several others from a long list which includes but is not limited to:
Memphis
Coastal Carolina
Temple
UT-SA
Navy
Army
Airforce
ACC could very well survive and thrive.
ACC will not implode. They'll add USF, Tulane, and Memphis. GT, WF, BC, SMU, Cal, Stanford, Duke, Cuse, NC State.
There has not been any relegation. A league broke apart and a couple of teams were left out in the cold. They were not relegated.
There’s only 1 UT Buddy, and that’s in Knoxville Tennessee! GO BIG ORANGE!
Once the acc collapses the big 12 will take some, the sec and big 10 will take what they want.. room for one more semi elite conference with the best remaining group of 5 and remanders of pac 2 and acc. I can see a 20 team congerence in 4 pods of 5 stretching from uconn 2 usf and san diego state 2 washington state.
Remember that ESPN is owned by Disney. Maybe Disney wants to cut their losses with ACC.
Two teams from the ACC will go back to the Pac 12 SMU will follow them four teams from the mountain West will go into the Pac 12
EAST: Syracuse, Boston College, UConn, Duke, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, USF. WEST: Tulane, SMU, SDSU, Cal, Stanford, Oregon State, Washington State.
I think the ACC will lose a couple. Probably just 2. And then they will add USF & Memphis. Not sure any other conference outside of the American will be having teams leave
I guess it would be teams from the SunBelt or CUSA going to the America to replace us and Memphis if we leave.
@@justinr658 probably, yes. USF and Memphis will be long gone by that point. Really would love for you both to join us in the Big 12 but I know the ACC is what will likely happen
This video wont end well.