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Army George Shows: What A Viable Chinese Invasion Of Taiwan Could Look Like (WarGames 148) | DCS
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- čas přidán 15. 08. 2024
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Today we look at a simulation of how a possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan may look. Take note that this is a drastically simplified simulation, intended only to show you the general tactic. The tactic starts with sea and air launched YJ-21 hypersonic missiles to remove a US Carrier Strike Group as well as many Taiwanese ground units. Following next is a huge battery of ground-launched supersonic missiles to wipe out the Taiwanese SAM sites and bases. Next follows a full air wing of fighters to push the attack, then finally cargo planes fly into Taiwan to drop Chinese SAM units to establish a logistic corridor.
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0:00 Overview
4:31 Simulation 1
18:38 Simulation 2
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I think George did a GREAT job in simulating what a Chinese attack could look like, but as others have mentioned there are a significant number of problems with how the defense was set up. I have an idea for you. Have 2 people 1 controlling the US, the other the Chinese. The Chinese goal is to create a plan to invade Taiwan and the other person is responsible for the defense of Taiwan. Neither of them knows how or what the other will do. They give you their plans and you implement it into a single simulation. Kind of like war gamming between generals using DCS to see what would happen.
Would make a good series of vids, I'd even volunteer to plan the Redfor ops
This is an issue with a lot of his videos. It takes massive liberties in order for the creator to reach the result they desire ie click bait.
Great idea!
Neither sides preparations would be totally unknown. Each would know approximate (if not exact) locations, supply status, operational status, etc. Numbers available would not be exactly known, but would be within a range (6-10 missile systems, 12-16 aircraft). The actual number would be revealed as the sim progressed.
well years of intel on both sides, and years of planning on both sides, what you suggested is a fun idea but i wouldnt say its more realistic
I think a swarm attack of missiles or drones is going to be standard military doctrine for some time to come.
in a scenario like this 100% everything will be used. It'll be waves and waves of ship/air/sub launched cruise missiles, hundreds of guided bombs, hundreds of suicide drones(like the Shadeed video), hundreds of MLRS/short range ballistic missiles (weishi). Even artillery/land based MLRS set up on ships might be used as mobile artillery
Unless one country has the tech and resources to do such a feat
You have to realize what China's doctorine is on Taiwan. They are willing to fight in nuclear war over this island. Will be using everything they can use just to win.
The U.S. military is already fielding lasers for missile defense.....
@@boostjunkie2320 They have conducted tests for drones and small boats, but I have yet to see credibility for missile defense tests.
Very nice scenario Army George! A couple of tid bits for the Navy portion.
1.) A U.S. CSG would never be placed into the Taiwan straight in such a manner.
2.) If U.S. ships were sent into the Taiwan straight, they would probably be used in what is referred to as a Surface Action Group (SAG). SAGs consist of at least two ships (i.e., a DDG or Tyco CMP). SAGs, to include submarines, would probably be focused on controlling access to the north and south entrance choke points of the Taiwan straight for starters in an effort to control, limit, and attack additional support China would attempt to send (from other Chinese naval ports) into the straight to support its invasion. Additionally, controlling the choke points will also provide additional attack vectors to launch attacks on the primary Chinese invasion group from.
3.) U.S. CSGs would probably be used on the backside of Taiwan to support a back to forward defense approach. The forward area of Taiwan I am referring to is facing towards the Taiwan straight/mainland China. CSGs would also be launching SEAD missions (F-35's backed with F/A-18's) to eliminate a lot of China's main air defenses. This would allow follow on strikes against key targets to be unimpeded.
I could go on with many more options as well.
This! Except for the small quibble that US Carrier groups have sailed through the Taiwan Strait, but they would never go there while China had active hypervelocity missiles/air power in a shooting war.
@@tom_curtis Yes, that is true, but this scenario is not a CSG conducting a FONOPS transit throught the straight.
Taiwan is also very mountainous. Reaching the beaches is one thing but crossing the country afterwards is another.
Of course near Taiwan you can find several American bases (such as in the Philippines or on many islands of Japan and Japan itself).
From this we could very well see an attempt to saturate the defense of Chinese warships and landing ships using American base, US warships, planes, from allied territories and equipments.
No way the usn would line up it’s ships like that this is not 1776 with a line of soldiers facing the enemy they would use the island as cover subs would be in the area and the Chinese navy would be targeted also
This is George: Certainly the most common response to this video is the Carrier Group would NEVER be in the Taiwan Strait. Ironically, the US Navy patrolled the Taiwan Strait from 1950 to 1979. So never really isn't quite so accurate. Perhaps it is more accurate to say The US Navy would not do it ANYMORE.
But the idea for the video came to me when I read the Navy was very concerned about Chinese Hypersonic Anti-Shipping Missiles. When I 1st put the scenario together what I found was putting the US Navy in the Pacific instead meant you didn't shoot at the Americans Navy at all. And it didn't answer the question, why is the Navy so concerned about these missiles? So to see why the Chinese missiles were so concerning, I had to put the US Carrier group in range. Once you start adjusting this scenario, it becomes clear why the US Navy would not put a Carrier Group in the Strait. And that's really the point I was trying to make, these missiles are a serious deterrent to US Naval Operations in the Taiwan Strait.
Next point about submarines. Submarine warfare is very difficult in DCS. It far exceeds my ability to program. It is just now becoming more accessible to Joint Ground-Air Operations. Surface ships are just this year becoming more easily programable. So I do what I can, with what I have, for absolutely no pay.
As for controlling the Checkpoints. I could only program enough computer power to invade 1 airstrip. If I try to control 2 airstrips this is no longer a video, it becomes more like a slideshow. I'd love to put it together to show more battle or even a fight on the proper map, but alas, I have only this.
I must say I appreciate you comments, when I have spare computer power I try to sneek in comments like yours. So keep the comments coming,
This is George
This was really good! The one thing we are missing from DCS however is ECM and decoys on the ships and airborne jammers like the Growler. A sizable portion of those missiles won't be able to be fired, will be jammed in flight, or decoyed away in the terminal phase.
Army George's tactical simulations just raise the bar for me on understanding the problems facing militaries. Amazingly educational (and a little bit concerning). A window into the world of real world tactics for someone with no military experience. Keep melting my brain please George!! Also Simba's single-minded determination to mess up the plans at all costs always gives me hope if this ever happened for real. Excellent video Cap and all the GR (A-team outro plays).
cheap chinses shit wont work lol just look how russia is doing in ukraine and china have copied all their tech you're being dumb
Agreed. George is at least honest in understanding how the US LOSES Taiwan militarily - it’s a lost cause
gotta try to win. lol. I didn't intend to be that far north but in order to evade the HQ-9's that pushed me that far north
@@simba1113 Greetings, I have a question for the expert: It came to my knowledge, that all air bases in Japan are encompassed by a considerable amount of golf courses in close proximity with the only expection of Misawa Air Base.
Is there a deeper meaning behind that strategic infrastructure setup?
Best regards
@@kisscola Most Airbases were built long long ago and golf courses were apart of the base lay outs. Building golf courses has a two part effect. one being it tends to be the sport of many business people and when bolstering ties to local comunities often they would do golf outings or community relations tournaments with locals to build those relationshipts. two and more importantly it was a way to make golf more accessable to to people as apart of moral and welfare programs. often base courses have very cheap greens fees for military members and their families. In recent years the military has made golf course selfsustaining. so the course has to generate enough money to pay for its self. luckly alot of bases over seas have programs that let locals play on teh courses and this helps to generate that money. but alot of that money often gets gobbled up by leadership and sent to fund other things.
Caveat to this simulation, it assumes we would be willing to self handicap a carrier group by putting it in the straight within range of land ordnance. Or that we wouldn't already have F35s and AWACS fully data linked as a screen beforehand because tensions are already running high.
Our own simulations assume we'll put TWO groups in the strait for a show of force before china attacks them.
Yes, the USN is not going to have a CSG block the Taiwan straight that way.
China's coastal defenses extend far far beyond its borders all the way out to the first island chain. Every "freedom of navigation" mission in the south China sea actually goes into the very heart of China's anti-ship batteries.
@@Jeffrey.1978 The whole gag is that China would block it. Easily. Without needing a single ship.
it take 5 days for the carrier taskforce to be in position, the PLA are not going to tell you when they will attack. this assume you even want the carrier to be in defensive range of Taiwan.
because the anti carrier missiles has a range of 1800km well beyond the range of carrier and their F35s, in the congression wargames, everytime the US carrier enter that 1800km A2AD zone, they die. it not 80%, it 99% certainty because PLA has more missiles then the taskforce has SM3/6, even if we assume with extraordinary luck that every single SM missile hit their mark, the carrier will still get sunk because PLA just has more missiles 1 to 1. PLA build up a stockpile of 3000 missiles just to keep US away. US can't win without turning it into a nuclear war.
the land ordnance simply out range the carriers. you need 2 refueling to get the F35s to Taiwan if you want to stay out of the range of those weapons. to which case the PLA simply has to target your unstealthy refuelers.
The initial premise is stupid. The US carrier group would not sit in the channel between Taiwan and the mainland. That would be suicide. At very least the carrier group would be on the Pacific side of Taiwan.
Yup, most likely the carrier group wouldn’t be anywhere near Taiwan and the Chinese would devastate Taiwan even faster
@@dexlab7539yeah, the initial surprise attack would be heavy but after blowing thier wad, it would be very difficult for them to continue. Taiwan would survive it. US and regional allies would hit back to the point where the invasion at best would be long and questionable.
@@bonedoc4556 Sure, US "allies" will definitely risk being bombed by China which has almost unlimited missile production capacity for Taiwan.
@@dexlab7539You way too optimistic that’s not how it’s gon turn out
If China did this plan, they'd never take an airfield because Taiwanese manpads would take out any cargo plane on approach. They would first have to send a wave of paratroopers to secure the air bases, and they'd certainly lose some planes in the process. That would take hours or days because defending land forces would be essentially untouched at that point. Even once they got control of an airfield, they would have to bring in air traffic control, something you can't set up instantly after the cargo plane touches down. Also, the air defense corridor (which would also take a while to set up) would be irrelevant once they've taken control of the airfields because any remaining Taiwanese planes would be shot down by planes or ships before they got close.
As the buildup of forces needed for this plan would be obvious to the US, as soon as the shooting started, the Chinese fleet would start blowing up courtesy of American and Taiwanese submarines. And China doesn't have nearly enough airlift to do the invasion without ships, and taking out even a few LSTs would mean the invaders would have almost no armor, threatening the whole operation.
As a counterpoint, here in the US we are trained to take well defended airfields and that whole operation, from beginning to end (having a usable airfield in enemy territory) only takes a few hours to a day maximum. Doubtful that China would be so efficient, but the point still stands that it is entirely within the realm of possibility.
@@flashgordon6670Yeah we don't train for that lmao. Contrary to popular belief we mainly train to fight peer adversaries.
china would unlikely launch an airborne assault 15 minutes after firing the first shot. It would instead aim to secure air supremacy with a massive wave of drones, then fighters, bombers then finally ground attack aircraft/helicopters.
Hey George, thanks so much for all of your work setting up these scenarios. Anyone assisting Cap with mission editing is a hero.
Per your request on naval aspects, the most recent and most legitimate war game simulations by a Washington DC think-tank essentually stated no US Carrier Strike Groups would be withn range of the Chinese anti-ship and cruise missiles, so that means a couple thousand miles roughly These essentially means immediate assistance to Taiwan would come in the form of USN submarines (far superior to Chinese subs), which would tryly be critical due to knocking out destroyers and amphibious ships in particular. Then long-range flights of USAF bombers and Rapid Dragon strikes with fighter escorts and a whole lot of tankers planes to extend their range, and depdning on the year, potentially long-range missiles from ships to try and hit any boat/ship/landing craft approaching Taiwan.
It would probably be several days of just insane missile volleys from China, hitting Taiwan, Guam, any other island assets in the areas (including Phillipines bases hosting US forces I believe), and Japan/South Korea if they came out and joined the US alliance immediately. The think tank estimated 90% of US aircraft losses would be via missiles hitting the jets on the ground. Once the long range missile fight is over, the ships would close in towards Taiwan, but in nearly every scenario with some variables changing between the respective war game, the USN (on average) lost two supercarriers and about 20 destroyers/other large ships in total.
The longer this potential conflict is delayed, I believe the better it is for the US, as they need the B-21, additional models of long range and hypersonic missiles (from upgraded Tomahawks, hypersonic glide vehicle/cruise missile models LRASM, JASSM, AIM-260, etc.), and perhaps most importantly, a ton more munitions manufactured to extend the long-range fight (the US doesn't have enough missiles of any cateogry to fight China).
I agree with you though I believe if Taiwan was to be invaded would likely have been in this year but China has some political instability fueled by COVID lockdown measures and a slowing economy. also Ukraine prevailing against Russia kind of so sobered up the Chinese military optimists that try to sell the invasion as being quick and easy. logistics is a &^itch.
First, US ships would position behind Tiawan, not in front of it. Second, if a US carrier is present they would use F18 Growlers to jam Chinese missiles. Third, Tiawan knows all of this, it's missile systems would not all go active simultaneously and announce their presence. So many other problems with lack of tactics. If it were this easy, China would have already done so.
Yep the Growlers can also jam missiles or generate fake target's on the radar.....
@@boostjunkie2320 growlers are designed to jam air to air missiles and surface to air missiles, not air to ground, surface to surface or antiship missiles.
You forgot that china has a version of growlers as well and what they shown in this video are just small arsenal of Chinese weapons lol🤣 are you butthurt that it went so easy lol..
Who said that the F18 can jam Ashm ??
They have their own guidance system, every modern missiles have a radar on its nose .
Then Taiwan will disappear even faster.
One huge problem I have with this simulation is the PK of the YJ-21s. Since the ships in DCS aren’t modeled with their extremely powerful ECM and Decoys artificially limiting the accuracy is the only way to make it realistic. In most war games it assumed that ECM alone will defeat 25% of incoming missiles. Add Decoys into the mix that grows to 35%-50% the rest are destroyed by fleet defense missiles.
I would strongly advise against putting a carrier strike group within 1,000 miles of the Chinese coast until their missile kill chains are broken. Look at other options, like the bombers, rapid dragon, subs, long range strike from Marines, and lots of Harpoon missiles from Taiwan, or maybe even ramjet-boosted PrSMs. China's goal is to invade. Ours is to sink their navy without losing any carriers, to ensure their invasion fails.
Your huge problem with this simulation is that US fleet got defeated... That's the only problem you have with this showcase.
Guess what, never trust a plan in real life war. Those estimates might be total bull or overestimated. Better prepare for ECM to not work at all just in case. Is ECM working in Ukraine? Doesnt look like it has any effect on russian missiles and drones.
explain how you jam inertial guidance then.
@@saiedvalypour1963 no it isn't. The accuracy of the YJ-21s is.
Cap---"that's what my Fortune Cookie told me"
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Very cool video, Cap! It's very important for viewers to remember that there are a lot of assumptions about how these simulated engagements begin. I enjoy the sims, but I always take them as more evocative than indicative.
I also just love watching the Reapers fly. Always a good time!
I still think that they should F/A-18B's and C's to simulate the AIDC F-CK-1. Since as I understand it they have similar perforce and capabilities. With that said Taiwan could really use Super Hornets, Rafale's and F-15EX's. But that might not be political viable at this time.
In short, compelling however unrealistic. SM-3s are fired in a one interceptor per target fashion in all the tests, and efficacy is more than 90%. Even if PLA fires all their yj-21s it will be unlikely to overwhelm the system. SM-6s have an efficacy of around 70% when fired against ballistic targets including mrbms, when a two round salvo is fired the pk is above 90%. Moreover the “Weishi rockets” are actually bre-6s in real life, which has a cep of 30m according to janes. That is no where near to pinpointing patriot launchers like the video shows. And the 220km range number is not only going to have difficulties reaching pac-3 sites, but the number itself is also likely to shrink as deployed down approach sea level. National Army has its own ABM systems deployed on the island too. Lastly, Taiwan has quite a stockpile of antiship and ballistic missiles of their own too, which is going to deliver strikes to the rocket launchers on the other side of the strait and stop the rocket barrage if they ACTUALLY need to. Annnd an extra address: Chinese operates all their spy constellations on sso orbit, therefore they are only allowed to take pictures of Taiwanese bases twice in a day at most. Being a bit nerdy here but it is that much a complicated task and there are likely many other phases that I didn’t manage to cover.🤓
keep in mind it wouldn't JUST be YJ21s chucked at the US CSG, at this range china would launch everything at you including hundreds of subsonic and supersonic AShMs, most of which are sea skimming.
Im pretty certain even if the CSG could manage a 100% hitrate it would just run out of ammo.
@@hughmungus2760 Well do keep in mind that there aren’t only the vls cells from the destroyers holding all the munitions in a csg fleet, there will be normally 1~2 supply ships in a csg that are capable of resupplying surface combatants after an engagement, even if Chinese have 20 million yj-18s and yj-83s they only have a limited number of launchers and h-6s which limits the amount they can fire in a single engagement. And that will be less than the interceptors from all the vls cells in a csg. Furthermore there will be counterstrikes from carrier-based fa-18s and tomahawks that will largely degrade their second wave strike capability, like it is being called CARRIER strike group for a reason. The Chinese H-6s will also be detected way behind the coastline (by e-2s if you wonder) therefore alerting carrier wings to takeoff precautionarily.
@@spinmaster4348 land based launchers can be reloaded in a matter of minutes, VLS on ships have to be reloaded in port. Or god forbid you try to reload them at sea while under fire. (Great way to lose both ships to an accident.)
The vast majority of land based launchers are also extremely cheap compared to ships and planes. Many of which are no more complicated than a large truck. Destroying them would almost not even be worth it. And thats not getting into 'containerised' missiles that could be fired from single use launchers disguised as shipping containers that can be parked anywhere or on the back of anything that can carry a shipping container.
Even if the US fired every tomahawk in its arsenal it couldn't stop a second wave because there are sure as hell alot more shipping containers in china than there are tomahawks.
Also for F18s to muscle its way to the chinese coast to find and destroy the launchers you'll need to overcome the chinese airforce and IADS. something you're probably not going to be able to do with 90 or so fighters.
If anything the US would probably launch everything it has at chinese industrial infrastructure in hope of doing more lasting damage. (which in itself would cause so much fury amongst the chinese population that retaliation on US industrial targets is pretty much guaranteed)
@@hughmungus2760 You would better tell the Iraqis during the gulf war that TELs are cheap and easy to replace LOL
Even for HIMARS it takes more than 10 minutes to reload, so I’d be quite interested in seeing you reload a DF-21 TEL in a couple of minutes.🤔
And surely there are containerized launchers like US ARMY TYPHON, but that’s only for the simplicity of transport’s sake. Imagine some drunk crane operator mistakenly loading a yj-18 in its launcher onto a container ship to US for the pentagon technicians to find out a Honeywell turbojet in it. If only there is still a single sensible person in the PLA this will never be materialised.
Chinese IADS is a joke iwhen facing against E/A-18G.
Like how are the Chinese supposed to strike on US? The only US industrial bases they can reach are on Guam.
Lastly I’d like you to imagine the fury among US population if their symbol of national pride, the CSG, were to be attacked by the Chinese out of nowhere. (The nearest base that B2 can operate from is in Japan)
@@spinmaster4348
From what I've read Scud hunting in iraq was hugely unsuccessful, and that was a backwards military with basically no strategic depth. DF21d TELs could be 200km inland hidden inside the mountainside tunnels. They'll shoot and scoot back into the tunnels to reload.
Smaller systems like the PHL16 are battalion level artillery which look like any old MLRS. Immagine wasting standoff weapons against those. Might as well drop cruise missile on individual tanks as well while you're at it.
Officially china has the YJ18C which is a containerised missile system. its likely stored in designated military warehouses and has special markings to stop them being mistakenly shipped out. But you won't know that unless you have a man on the ground to verify.
Growlers aren't even going to get close to be useful, their jammers make them priority 1 for J20s to go after and the noise they make pretty much blinds you from being able to see J20s coming even if you could detect them otherwise.
chinese attacks on the US mainland would most likely be done with saboteurs already in the US.
If ukraine can carry out assasinations in the streets of moscow. you can be damn sure china can hide agents in the millions of ethnic chinese living on the US mainland and streaming across the porous US southern border.
And the targets can be mundane things like power substations, railway lines, fuel pipelines, refineries, telecoms nodes ect. A dude inside your borders with a bomb strapped to a drone can do as much damage as a hypersonic missile fired across the ocean.
And what can the US do? Lock every asian looking person into internment camps? That would hurt the US more than it would hurt china both socially and manpower wise.
The navy would never park a carrier group inside the intercept radius of the Chinese air defense. It makes the carrier pointless except as a target. They would position at sea on the other side of the island, with maybe their attack subs in the straits (There are usually one or two attached to a carrier group). This would give them more time to intercept incoming missiles, launch aircraft, and make getting a precise location on the fleet harder. Then any submarine in the strait could harass the Chinese navy ships until the air wing arrived, additionally the subs, as well as other fleet assets would hit the Chinese launch sites with TLAMs.
Also it would be good doctrine, if I was the Taiwanese, to move the air defense radars after every satellite pass. They also know the Chinese recon satellite schedule. So you have a half dozen or so prepared positions for each radar and move randomly between them. Then jam both the Russian and Chinese GPS systems when inbound missles are detected. This would force multiple rockets against each asset and reduce the efficacy of the strikes in total.
很遗憾，南中国海上有我们建设的密密麻麻的海岛，上面机场雷达导弹应有尽有，最好的选择是美国海军呆在自己家里
Seems like Taiwan is missing Hawk air defense systems, Sky bow II and III (anti air/ballistic missiles), Skyguard anti aircraft guns, and apparently they have hundreds of towed sea sparrow missiles.
China can produce more loitering drones in a single day than Taiwan's entire AA missile inventory, this ain't your grandpa's war anymore.
YES! Literally been binging this channel since two days, and after the Okinawa China episode really wanted to see a Taiwan attack.... Alas, here it is bois and gals!
There are a few of these to watch - it’s ain’t pretty for Taiwan or the US.
Nice sim, but a few suggestions - firstly, no USN ships would be in the Strait, they would be sitting back in the Philippine Sea.
Secondly, the Taiwanese AD assets wouldn't be clustered in clumps, they'll be distributed around the island, and try to be mobile. Finally, satellite surveillance works both ways, if the PRC amass an invasion force, then the ROC's allies will see that via their space based intel platforms, they will then inform the ROC who will then take the appropriate measures to relocate and defend their assets.
It's a game of chess, just stating that PRC satellites have a 6 hour window is accurate and honest, but you have to remember that the images have to be interpreted, reports generated and sent to command groups, who have to generate targeting orders, etc etc. Getting new images every 6 hours is great, it's the 24 hours of lag after receiving the images that delays providing accurate tasking orders.
George taught me how to fly the gazelle several years ago. Great great guy. Glad to see he is still around and active. Thanks for teaching me the ropes of building Sam sites George!! ❤️
This is George, Good to hear from you, albeit indirectly.
As someone who grew up in the Cold War, seeing all those missile contrails is terrifying
I know what you mean.
you meant to say "cool as fuck!"
Since you have the map, can you do a full on Turkish attack on North Cyprus! Let's see how regular Cyprus responds!
Hey Cap, not sure if you're aware, but Taiwan is getting their older F-16's upgraded to F16V which should be completed by the end of 2023. There were reports that at least 42 were upgraded by May 2021. Also Taiwan has at least 200 aim-120C8 (which are essentially aim-120D) according to wiki.
Fun fact: the civil war between the PRC and the ROC that began in the 1940s never officially ended. It is generally recognized that both sides entered a tacit cease-fire that has lasted since the PRC announced the cessation of shelling of Kinmen. I would probably see these MRBMs and Weishi's salvo as the restart of the "shelling" for the new century. Some high-tech shells.
I recently learned that given how close Taiwan is to China, it can be easily covered by the PLAs MLRS in addition to their ballistic missiles. They got enough missiles and rocket artillery to rain on Taiwan FOR DAYS. They may even throw a drone swarm at Taiwan as well.
If push ever came to shove, I don't think the Chinese would back down over Taiwan anymore than we would back down over Hawaii.
Since China sees Taiwan as a renegade province, I wouldn't be surprised if they threatened to use nukes against anyone trying to intervene. If someone was trying to take a piece of my land from me, (which is how the Chinese would view an American intervention) I would be swinging the nuclear flag left and right.
The only way to win in this scenario is to keep the status quo as is.
@@Stinger522 I think that's what the U.S. has been doing for decades, maintaining the status quo. It does recognize "one China", but it doesn't specify which China, the PRC on the mainland or the ROC on Taiwan, and in the eyes of both sides, they are that real China, except that one side's version has one province defecting and the other side has dozens.
For both Cs, not only did the U.S. begin to support the ROC every time the PRC behaved aggressively, but every time the ROC actually tried to seek independence and become Taiwan without China, it would criticize and warn against such behavior. It's only in recent years when the contrast in power between the two sides has become more and more disparate, and the latter scenario has become less and less common, that it's given onlookers the illusion that the US is always doing the former.
@@ionsilver557 If China decides to go for it, do you think the US should intervene? The internal affairs part and the nukes has me saying no.
As a Taiwanese gotta say you guys know something about china.
@@Stinger522 The US refusing to commit troops to Ukraine says enough. Russia would likely use nukes if a US lead coalition decided to attack and take back Crimea.
China would equally likely use nukes if the US started attacking the chinese mainland to stop a chinese attack on Taiwan.
Morning, the CSG would stay near the 1-2IC to protect itself from the PLARF. Depending on the mix of F/A-XX or F-35Cs which matters on the year it happens, this will either increase or decrease the range needed.
Rapid Dragon would be the US’s best weapon early on into the conflict, past that submarines in the SCS and strait will be the most important force for the U.S and Taiwan.
Thank you for mentioning submarines. This scenario completely negates the subsurface forces and their land attack and anti-air capabilities.
@@rosteach4027 I agree, but DCS really isn't set up for modeling subs AND surface ships. There are a few really good sims that get them right.
@@mfreed40k oh yeah. Totally agree with you. If nothing else it's constructive criticism and GR can factor that into their sims. I'm also coming off a 3 1/2 year tour of doing work with fleet activities going over these same scenarios. I appreciate George's insight and it's interesting seeing it done from a hobby standpoint. There's just so much more happening and to have been doing the real life work, today's world especially with such well developed scenarios and social media searching for clips is kind of like running after a car going "Hey, wait. You forgot about th-"
Information is already out there. Now it's being clipped on Tiktok with a disembodied voice about force loss in a conflict between Taiwan and China, god forbid it comes about.
rapid dragon would be limited to hitting static targets due to a lack of realtime ISR. Mobile SAM launchers, AWACS and warships hiding deep inside chinese SAM nets are going to be pretty much impossible to hit.
This is freaking insane it's making my pulse rate go up. When this war jumps it's gonna be a rough ride fellas
The reason it would escalate to ww3 is because it means mainland China would have to be attacked and even occupied
**sees title in notifs**
**enters chat**
There Is No Viable Xinese invasion Of Taiwan.
**leaves chat**
BTW, there is no need for China to use it's DF or YJ missiles. The entire island is within 600km of the Mainland, China only need to saturate the islands with low cost rocket artillery and tactical ballistic missiles which China has over 300K in stockpile;They are delivered via PCL-191 and PHL-03
yup. the true horror for anyone doing missile defense on taiwan. its basically a war of attrition that can't be won.
The only scenario where I see Taiwan remaining relatively unscathed in a first attack is if allied forces launch a first strike attack on China, attacking many missile sites and air bases.
This is the one that I've been waiting for, for a very long time.
Very good video CAP and George! A wicked scary thing to see that could happen... And it is scary that a handful of politicians on both sides hold that kind of fate in their hands....CRAZY!!
My gut feeling (so weight the opinion accordingly) is that Russia's disaster of an invasion with accompanying political fallout is giving China a lot of pause for invading Taiwan. Whatever plans they had, they're now double-checking, and running some contingency calculations, because a failed invasion (or even just a half-assed one) would result in the sort of loss of face they tend to avoid at all costs.
Disaster for Ukraine and NATO.
Let me know when China builds an amphibious assault fleet. Until then, there will be no invasion.
Dude Ukraine is in big trouble. Their long awaited counter offensive is dead. Plus, the US is out of 155 artillery OMG!
@@dexlab7539 😀 Please, give us more updates from Potemkin Village 🤣
the ukraine model doesn't apply to taiwan in the least. Taiwan can't be supplied with NATO weapons because it will be completely cut off by a chinese blockade. Unless the US gets directly involved. Taiwan is doomed after it runs out of ammo.
The US navy is not going to set up shop in the Taiwan straights. It’s going to be pretty far out into the pacific. Most known war game scenarios have the USAF launching thousands of jassm-er and lrasm missiles from a few hundred miles away.
= too far away to do shit.
The reason US fascism can bombard third world countries is that those can't fire back nor intercept the air force and missiles.
Doesn't work against a real army.
You mean Pacific right?
@@Fatallydisorganized yeah…oops
the US has about 600 LRASM in its entire arsenal. And they would unlikely all be in the same place at the same time to fire.
@@hughmungus2760 That is true, but Lockheed has opened a 2nd production line to produce 1000 Jassm/lrasm per year for the foreseeable future.
Nice video
I just have a few remarks to make:
1) As many already have said, the US and Taiwanese Fleet wouldnt be inside the Strait
2) The defense is generally lacking important units: They have multiple Batteries of their Indigenous Sky Bow 2 and 3 sites, which are equivalt ore even better than the Patriot System. Also there are a lot of Sea Sparrow and CIWS guarding sam installations meaning there would generally be less leakadge.
3) The Cargo Planes would be immideatly shot down by CIWS and MANPADS, they would also be the main target of the ROCAF and even if they managed to land, they would be in completely hostile terrain and be demolished very quickly.
Yeah, that were kinda my points also. Especially the TK3 (SkyBow) sites are very capable and mobile. A single system near the middle of Taiwan could ( in theory) protect the entire island against approaching transport aircraft. The SkyBow 2 Systems use hardened Radar stations, which need a really precise hit to be taken out and can be interfaced with mobile Radars from TK 3, which means they can operate even without their own radar. In turn that means China would have to take out the missiles as well, which are mainly in silos. So again they'd need pretty precise hits to kill those, which translates to a lot of missiles needed for a single system.
And dropping a single SHORAD system in the middle of nowhere into the range of dozens of TOW launchers, M48s and Javelins, is useless at best.
Biggest complaint I have about this scenario is recon though. When China starts to transfer hundrets of ballistic missile launchers and MLRS towards the Taiwan Strait, this will be very very apparent. So everybody will be on high alert.
Getting the exact locations of every single AD system in Taiwan with a 100 % accuracy on the other hand, is pretty much impossible. Even with a spynetwork and observation satellites.
1. Everybody knows the orbital data of the Chinese satellites. Avoiding them by relocating regularly is not that complicated.
2. Even high resolution satellites have a hard time differentiating between decoys and the real deal.
3. High resolution satellites have a very narrow field of view. For example a 100Mpx image with 0.1 m resolution is just 1 km wide. A sun syncronous constellation travels ~2400 km per orbit. To image every single square km of Taiwan (or any other place) in a single pass, it would take 2400 satellites.
That's why Satellites typically are used differently. High FOW, low resolution cameras are used to detect areas of interest. Then, (the next time a high resolution Satellite passes in range) pictures of this area will be taken, to confirm or disperse those suspicions. That usually takes a few days.
And while spynetworks can work, they still have their problems, especially when all the military starts to move at the same time because of an alert situation.
To put that into perspective, Russias biggest problem with fighting Ukraine was for a long time not the availability of Weapons, but the availability of reliable recon. You cannot shoot at something without knowing where it is. Recon is a giant problem especially over long ranges. Both Russia and Ukraine operate thousands of Drones. Ukraine is supported by satellite images from some of the biggest militaries in the world. And yet after the Russians learned to make their Ammo dumps smaller and less obvious, strikes on those became a lot less frequent.
@@PagsPayback That was a great read, a lot of interesting information!
But I guess its all just a bit too difficult to implement in DCS, would be cool though in the future
@@golumrat9479 No doubt about that. Maybe it would be possible to implement by letting two different persons plan the attack and the defense. With either information being leaked by a third person or the restriction that lower tier AD cannot be attacked by BMs, until the position has been confirmed by planes, drones, etc.
But a good first step would indeed be to not ignore 2/3s of Taiwans AD in the first place. TKs can be simulated with Patriot PAC2, TC2 possibly with IRIS-T SLS and Gepards could simulate skyguard.
An other point would be a BM and missile counter and a better visible mission clock. It was really hard to keep up in the Vid. It looked like Patriot only launched half a dozen missiles or so, but the editing skipped most of the Anti BM work.
And there is of course my usual gripe about the terminal velocity of GR ballistic missiles and HGVs being unrealisticly high.
You have assumed no offense from Taiwan and the American fleet. Also that there would be no advanced knowlege of the attack. That is highly unlikely.
Bold to assume China would attack knowing that there would be a counter attack. The premise is a surprise attack, it's pure hubris to assume that one *can't* be surprised.
They got MASSIVE anti air there and of course while you could fire some counter attack missiles, you overall want to try to stay alive, a single counter wave fire will do shit.
in US congressional wargame, every attempt to send the carrier resulted in their lost without fail. there is no point sending US fleet to soak up missiles. the F35 has an operational range of 1240km, PLA missile force has a range of 1800km. the F35 can't even shoot back without 2 refueling.
@@92HazelMocha I think the surveillance of China is a lot better. I hardly think a movement of that size would be missed.
@@miriamweller812 In the simulation there was an American carrier there that was ignored except to be cannon fodder.
Absolute cracking display of something none of us ever comes to pass,
This is what we call proving your own hypothesis. George “know’s” how an invasion of Taiwan would really go, so set up a situation showing exactly what he thinks would happen. The only thing this proves to me is army George should never be in charge of the defense of Taiwan…
I'm pretty critical of George, but this is fairly accurate, at least as a microcosm. The point is not that "George shouldn't be in charge of Taiwan's defenses" but that Taiwan fundamentally doesn't have the capability to defend itself which is pretty accurate.
I have commented on other videos. If you are initiating a conflict you should be using overwhelming force. If it's a fair fight then you're using bad tactics.
Basic Sun Tzu doctrine. Both sides will know this.
@onefan1249 in the past I was usually referring to how cap is always trying to make fights fair. I know that close fights are more interesting and that is a major factor in youtube. 👍
Exactly. This is how it would play out. Others can’t get past their obsessive delusions with western hardware (and re: politics) to realize the Chinese would easily and quickly overwhelm defenses, and have game planned this scenario for decades, systematically building up stockpiles of advanced missiles, meant to overwhelm anything there. And to deny any outside effort at resupply or reinforcement via sea or air (largest surface fleet in the world rn, with very capable vessels for one). They have their bases covered strategically and tactically, across a lot of contingencies, before anything even begins to happen.
@@thomasmore8894just like Russia with over whelming power strolled into Kyiv and took all of Ukraine in 3 days! 😂 Corruption gonna corrupt. Propaganda gonna distort and lie. Three words: Million man swim. There is zero chance China pulls off the largest amphibious landing under fire the world has ever seen, across a long stretch of water that can only be used two months of the year for an attack in the age of spy satellites. Such a joke anyone who buys into it being at all a realistic scenario. 🤡🤖
@@thomasmore8894 All perfectly planned, to absolute perfection...just like the Russkies did in Ukraine, right?
Cap, a few things, how come you can't use datalink/AWACs to track incoming missiles and defeat them/patriot site them(even if patriot radar is down)? Also, wouldn't ship's just run on the threat edge of the enemy missile range so if they use all their defensive power the can just move out of the threat range and save the ship?
Also, China is definitely watching these scenarios for ideas, lol
One issue i have is that the Navy would never place the entire CSG in the Straight itself. They would be off the eastern coast of Taiwan and maybe one or two destroyers might try to interdict these missiles but they would never risk the carrier in such a way.
Also, Habitual Linecrosser has made it clear that the range of Patriot is significantly longer than the publically available data, which would also add to its defensive capabilities. And that Aegis and other US airdefense platforms are much more advanced than the public knows about.
I am fully convinced that this would go completely different in real life and not in a positive way for China😅
Very good war game. Now, because we know the most likely attack plans, how about some additional defensive stratagy. Throw in a bunch of stinger manpads all over, and I think I would also use some old, powerful mobile radars as false targets for the anti-radiaton attack, also spread near the coast, before the actual site radars. With the manpads waiting for the transports, and false targets all over, how would the same mission change?
Also in simulators like CMO you can plan the strikes so everything arrives on target about the same time. Something I've never seen being done on this channel.
Wait how can you do that
I've been guessing the whole time
@@leongao5120 The new update has a strike planner thing
Would be crazy if Taiwan and the US Fleet just played defense and didn't launch attacks on some of the Chinese missile sites, ect. That would be suicide.
Yeah then it just becomes a question of who shoots the first shot. I have all of the missile sites on Google Maps found so it's just a matter of hitting the important weapon systems.
@@HTV-2_Hypersonic_Glide_Vehicle Mind sending one of the locations? I'm curious
@@sus5976 Oh, I do not mind at all. It will be difficult though, as CZcams will not allow links anymore. Do you have some way I can contact you? I have a Gmail, Instagram, Facebook... or I could send you the title of the article and website you can see the map.
@@92HazelMocha Do you have some way I can contact you? I have a Gmail, Instagram, Facebook... or I could send you the title of the article and website you can see the map.
@@92HazelMocha *"You found 1700 Chinese missile batteries on Google maps? I find that pretty doubtful."*
LOL I understand your doubt, but I really can help you, but it is not my creation, it is a Taiwanese made custom Google map.
Remember, there is no problem so large that can't be fixed by using a tactical nuclear weapon. If, per chance, you find a problem so large that a tactical nuclear weapon didn't fix the problem, then use a strategic nuclear weapon. Why is it that DCS does not have B61, SRAM and B83 nuclear weapons available for their aircraft simulation?
you think the US would authorise a tactical nuke right off the chinese coast?
While I did enjoy the simulation im not convinced a US Carrier fleet would be so undefended in such a high-risk area, it just seems against doctrines?
I think it's a fantastic idea and start that I can't wait to see the next simulation. Awesome work.
the taiwan straits is the last place a US carrier wants to be in such a war. Not only would it be a pincushion for every missile in china's arsenal. it would probably get torpedoed by the 80 or so submarines china has.
I can't believe you flew for the Chinese.
GR, love your sims, but I really find no value in another "Let's overwhelm a Blue AD system again" sim. If you're going to model a PRC invasion of Taiwan, even in part, you should script in the Blue Force response, which would effectively be simultaneous. Anyway, thanks for the content. +1
definitely will need something more like a Taiwanese map, since yonaguni Island is very close to the Eastern side, and the northernmost island with a runway in the Philippines is pretty close to Southeastern Taiwan. possibly could put missile systems on those islands
“Amateurs talk about tactics, but professionals study logistics.”
-Gen. Barrow
A more Devilish Dog, the world has yet to see. Heaven help us!
There is more than one U.S. Carrier task group deployed to Taiwan now.
All you have to do is knock out fleet auxiliary. The Carriers only carry jet fuel for less than a week of operations
That's a scary amount of boom boom to cope with.
Loving the message to management at the top! Worth a try I would say?
I have a question. Do you think the couple of submarines that typically follow a aircraft carrier battle group would play any type of role in this scenario? Maybe take out a couple of type 55 before they have a chance to completely unload their payload. I know you can't simulate submarines right now but just curious on what you think
the type 055s are simulating the combined firepower of all of china's land and airbased ballistic missiles, so realistically you'll unlikely manage to sink one because they won't even be there.
I think it would be a huge benefit for GR to communicate with Habitual Line Crosser (if they aren’t already) for the best open source information on air defense in the area.
Full disclosure, I have know idea what Army George’s resume is and I’m not trying to imply that he doesn’t know what he’s talking about either. I’m also not questioning his knowledge and expertise.
I feel like in some manner the American fleet when detecting such a buildup would not only have another carrier strike group nearby, but would release nuclear weapons. I don't know if there is any "anti-missile air burst nukes" or if it would just be attacking the fleet/coast where the launches are coming from.
Yes, you could do that and it would be quite effective. The problem is you are now using nuclear weapons. They would never start with something like that.
原来中国俄罗斯没有核武器啊
In time of combat, US will not have one CSG, they will have multiple CSG in the region. B-2/B-52 will join as well.
not that it would make any difference, you won't know where chinese land based missiles are coming from until after they've already been fired. China could hide it's launchers in underground parking lots, industrial warehouses and tunnels and you would have no idea where they were.
I like the content! It was a little odd though bc it seemed from what I was hearing that basically everything needed to be changed to the point it's a completely different battle
i think china would not attack when a us fleet is in the strait
the US fleet wouldn't go there with a carrier. Except they want the binary outcome: Direct War between China and the US, or no military conflict
When Syria invaded Cyprus
The Navy would not put a CVBG inside the straits. The CV would remain east of the island with some CG/DGs and E2s and NC2. Possibly put a CG/DG at each end north-south of the island acting as air defense and ASW. Possibly a sub or two within the straits attacking ships. The CV aircraft would stay east of the island providing long-range air defense. With only 1 CVBG not much else it is possible to have CGs/DGs attack TELs and airbases on the mainland.
You are still launching the YJ-21s first?!?!?! Those would be launched towards the end of the attack when the air defenses already saturated. And they would then all get through.
Man... seeing the whole US fleet wiped out like that... soo freaking scary.
its scary, but if it makes you feel better most of chinas "large fleet" is patrol boats
It’s why the USN won’t be sending any CSGs into the strait if the war starts, the PLARF is by far the most competent part of the PLA.
Everything will stay between the 1-2IC besides submarines
Not scary but sad, It's sad becouse I don't hear any C-RAM going BRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR...
@@adriankowalski5492 CIWS is generally an ineffective system against AShMs which is a large part of why it’s being removed and replaced
@@OfficialAceFilms then you realise those 80 of those 'patrol boats' carry 8 antiship missile a piece.
POV: You keep checking your notifications
The Drone operator watching the beginning live:
"smoke in the air times a few hundret?"
It's an interesting tactical simulation, but I'm highly critical of the strategic validity. If that battle takes place, Taiwan (Formosa) is obviously the overall objective, but a ground battle there cannot realistically take place before blockading/securing the Luzon strait (within ~300 miles of the Philippines) and the East China Sea corridor (within ~500 miles of the Japan). Plopping Chinese (CCP) air defense assets onto airbases like that would be madness. The Republic of China Defense Forces have over a thousand Main Battle Tanks, and this is the fight they train for.
Realistically, a ground invasion of Taiwan would begin with a massive multi-national Naval Battle. Something more 'principally' akin to Midway, or the Solomon Islands in WWll. The CCP are definitely well aware that the fight would mean confronting the USN/RAN/RN ('AUKUS') and (probably) the IN, in the S. China Sea, and AUKUS with the JMSDF in the East China Sea. This is drilled every year during TALISMAN SABER. 2023 is the largest so far. The CCP do basically the same.
Personally, after simulating this several times in C:MO, I think the likelihood of a successful CCP ground invasion of Taiwan, as it stands today, is slim (at best); and I think they know that also. If it did happen, it would probably be the result of escalation from a 'smaller' conflict in the S. China Sea. It's neat seeing this played out tactically in DCS, but a more fleshed-out way to simulate the strategic scenario is with something like Command C:MO. There are several community scenarios for the Twain Straight. I'll link one of them here:
czcams.com/video/-Q9a0Tc741k/video.html
Idk, Taiwan has been stacking missiles for a long time now. Not to mention airdefense from the installations that are going in on the minor Japanese islands
missing:
- Sky Sword I & II
- Sky Bow II& III
- MIM-72 Chaparral (AIM-9 derived)
- RIM-7 Sea Sparrow (500) "coupled" with 24 Oerlikon Skyguard (35mm)
- MIM-23 HAWK
- Antelope
- Dual Mount Stinger
cheers for a great vid to watch
need to get me arse of Fleet command
and update
It's been supposed by some that China might make use of the deep inventory of old planes, using them to soak up air defenses instead of expensive attack missiles and front line aircraft.
I tried this years ago in Harpoon, flying the cheap jalopys in very low (burning up fuel, but it's a one way trip) and popping them up when defense fighters got close, with interesting results.
More recently it's been theorized that Chinese commanders might gain some appreciation for the lives of young pilots and make drones out of all those old planes, so there's another option.
word is that the old planes are being modified into drones
I think in reality the US would never put their Carrier group that close to China and would most likely have it positioned on the far side of Taiwan ?
Maybe somewhere around our north east near Okinawa or south between the Philippines US base and Taiwan.
Surely the carrier would stay to the east of Taiwan to give it sea room?
Maybe somewhere around our east coast, maybe north east near Okinawa, maybe south near Philippines US base, guessing.
@@BA_AARon Yes. It just seems sensible to put an island between the carrier and mainland China.
definetely one of the better videos, felt quite realistic so it was intriguing!
Looking at the thumbnail I thought chemtrails had gotten into DCS lol
Another problem is The US ships will not be on the front side of the island in the line of sight of the Chinese missiles they'll be on the back side of the island or to the side of the island where they can have cover.
PLA China are also building up a secondary invasion force from WPS, transport planes and covert pla militia vessels.
Just finished watching the Tomcat video. Was about to call it a night and then i see this has been uploaded. Already early hours of the morning but to hell with it. Here we go again 😂.
Maturity is when you realize yj 21 will come after yj18s have been fired to reduce interception chance of yj 21.
Well, looks like Taiwan is gonna have to turn their whole island into Mount Suribachi.
Look, I love your guys' videos...but respectfully DCS (or at least the server GR are running these scenarios off of) have been proven to be unable to handle AI calculations, target remediation, tactics, etc as well as other factors that can't really be coded like competence/experience.
To be fair it doesn't matter how experienced you are if your enemy can simply overwhelm your defenses until you run out of missiles
Just wanted to say that Army George has put together a scenario that includes what I would call a "naive defense". There are defenses, but no tactics. The defense is made without consideration of the attack. In my mind, this is a completely reasonable thing to do, because it will show information that is valuable - namely, do you need to make adjustments to defend for this kind of attack.
The answer here is, why, yes, you do. Quite a bit. That doesn't make this scenario a cheat or illegitimate. For one thing, if you imagine that the Taiwanese SAM sites were somehow able to defeat the targeting - via camo or motion or other things, then that would be a huge shift. If you can make your enemy's first big punch miss completely, it helps a lot. Other possibilities present themselves as well. It does show that those new Chinese destroyers coupled with the missiles on them and the ground based missiles backing them up make a very serious threat.
Of course, if that punch doesn't land, the Chinese will have spent billions on achieving exactly nothing.
YJ21s would outrange anything taiwan has to fire back at the PLAN. Plus Taiwan lacks long range ISR assets to properly track them that far out.
You forgot to model the islands tawai has close to China with artillery and basic air defense
If it was so easy, the Chinese would have already done it.
Taiwan has no value as a crater. Better to wait another 10 or even 20 years to try to diplomatically bring them into the fold than to blow up all the stuff that makes the endeavor worthwhile.
No, because Chinese isn't a warmongering nation as our western ones.
Wouldn’t sinking a US carrier kinda make the other 10 a bit miffed?
And thousands of dead sailors. WW3
Regarding to Taiwan's air defenses, Taiwan retired all of its Hawk missiles in June and intended to replace them with domestically developed Sky Bow-2/3 SAM systems, Sky Bow 3 is capable of intercepting TBM. Taiwan also has supersonic antiship missiles, The Bravewind-3 series, that can engage ships in the Taiwan Strait. PLAN knows this and they avoided sending ships and subs into the Taiwan Strait, because they would become sitting ducks.
I think the CSG did worse than it would do in a real version of this scenario, as they dedicated a lot of missiles to the Weishi TBMs that didn't pose a direct threat to them. Real AD radars can discriminate between contacts that would impact the defending asset and those that are headed elsewhere.
I think they’d hold off as much as possible on using missiles until the invasion started. Us and friends would start protecting assets as best as possible when missiles launched from China side
G'day , Shhhhhhhhhhh, but your thinking correct , also over 100 teams - with stingers etc ? will remain in hiding so i hear , wait for Choppers etc : . bye .
There is no way in hell the NAVY would place a Carrier Stike Group that close to China. I don't think they would get any closer than 500 miles.
have to remember Chinese are one of the masters in Drone production and usage, first wave of fighters should be replaced by mix of drones and fighters
This is absolutely terrifying. Commenting after the start of the Israel-Hamas war, swarming most certainty works in real life. Defence experts long warned about how even the most sophisticated systems could be overwhelmed, and that's exactly what happened to Israel. If the CCP does the same with their large arsenal of missiles, Taiwan could literally run out of interceptors. I don’t mean just overwhelmed, I think the PLA has more missiles thatn Taiwan has interceptors.
But from what I've read, namely from RAND et. al., the PLA's biggest problem is logistics. Their airlift fleet is not large enough to quickly establish a bridgehead in Taiwan. They don’t have a C-5 equivalent, and their C-17 equivalents' fleet is small. And if they use ships, they won’t be able to achieve the element of surprise. I think Taiwan still has the advantage, but their time is running out.
Sim or not, that looked scary. I wouldn't want to be on receiving end.
Ay yo that's how we lived😅
Amazing to me that the simulation does not even consider attacking ChiCom mainland targets
as far as logistics goes, I really think that the Chinese have the logistical advantage
A vast logistical advantage, in fact. The Chinese munitions that can be brought to bear are almost unlimited.
the nearest US logsitics depot is in guam or okinawa, 1000km away. the nearest chinese logistic depot is down the road.
@@hughmungus2760 : Japan and the Philippines can be used and are much closer, but they are within range of far more missiles of all types.
DCS really can't come close to modeling electronic warfare and ship decoys/countermeasures. Also the lack of accurate submarines really throws the balance off. Nothing like your offensive missile sites disappearing thanks to sub-launched missiles right off the coast.
For you to hit land based missile launch sites you have to know where they are first. what if they're scattered all over the coast and hidden in forests and underground sites? What if the look like civilian trucks? Good luck finding them. Short of a pre-emptive nuclear strike you got nothing.
This defensive strategy would be insanely stupid on the part of the Taiwanese. If you want to look at a sensible defensive strategy than look at Ukraine. They had to deal with a similar scenario during their invasion. If you are a SAM operator and you see a missile coming at you that you know you cannot deal with, then you shutdown your radar and relocate. The fact that the Tawianese SAM launchers would just sit there and do nothing as a missile closes in on them is insane.
I didn't even think about that. I need to see the specifications of Chinese missels.
6:50 6:55 6:57 7:00 7:03 7:04 7:05 7:06 7:07 7:07 7:08 7:09 7:09 7:10 7:12 7:12 7:12 7:12 7:13 7:13 7:13 7:13 7:13 7:14 7:14 7:14 WTF is this?
I am guessing, of course, that the US understands this dynamic and is continuously running simulations. Might we _assume_ that if the US truly intends to defend Taiwan, they would counter the numbers discrepancy between China and Taiwan. *I hope, at least.*
Yeah but the United States Navy is dealing with really big problems right now. Problems that China just might take advantage of as they will not be resolved until the 2030s or maybe later since the problems are going to take a lot of time to fix.
To be completely honest, I don't really believe we intend in actually directly entering into an armed conflict with China. China's airforce and Navy are comparable in size and technology to our own and their massive number of ground launched ASM's and Cruise missiles mean to have any real effect we'd have to consider an invasion of mainland China which to have any level of success would require the majority of the entire US military and would produce casualty numbers not seen since WW2. A half measure would result in failure and dedicating our entire military to a single conflict on the other side of the world that doesn't directly effect us just doesn't seem plausible.
I think it will likely be more like what we've seen in Ukraine, where we vow "to defend Ukraine" but only indirectly through ISR and supplies. And remember it was the US who initially said that "Ukraine would fall in weeks". I think the end goal is not to actually protect Taiwan but tie up China's resources in a conflict and hit them with sanctions just like it has been with Russia in Ukraine.
@@92HazelMocha If what you say is the case, then Taiwan will be taken over in at most a month.
@@flashgordon6670 So you think NATO should go into Ukraine then?
@@flashgordon6670I mean you're not wrong. I would like to point out that one of the reasons Russia invaded was because Ukranian NATO membership was on the table, there were other reasons too but that was one of them.
If we did openly interve however it would have massive implications. NATO countries would be fair game and backing a nuclear power into a corner is a dangerous proposition.
Honestly I think there's a better case for NATO to go into Ukraine than there is for the US to intervene in the south China sea. Russia has a history of invading countries that warm up to the west, while China primarily only has this one civil war that never ended. It further complicates things that Taiwan claims the entire mainland and the country of Mongolia as their territory. For instance if we help Ukraine, Russia comes to the table end of story, if we help Taiwan, will they renounce their claims to other countries or do we just move to yet another chapter of this now century long conflict?
We would not put our carrier strike group in the Taiwan Strait. We'd leave them parked in the Philippine Sea for this very reason.
It would appear, what the US Navy needs, is a big ship (close to the carrier), that is nothing else but a trailer ship filled with anti (ballistic) missiles and a powerful radar. And nothing else, just a huge ship that can house thousands of SM3 and SM6 missiles, hundreds of tactical nukes (mirv's) and maybe up to a hundred C-Wiz Phalanx rapid fire machine guns to knock out smaller (drone) swarms. These regular destroyers simply don't have enough missile capacity. This is the missile and drone era. In the 80s and 90s it was all about Carriers and Airplanes, and in the 40s it was all about Tanks and Battleships.
concentrating that much firepower in one ship is a recipe for disaster. If you lose it, you might as well surrender because you're entire navy's budget went into that thing.
Also the easiest way to deal with something like that would be nuclear powered torpedoes.
8:30 missiles trails draw an arrow shape (middle left of screen) what a coincident :)
I think it is time for GR to model the newest Directed Energy weapons that the USA has developed and putting into use in combat. That swarm strategy is obsolete if and when every land based asset, aircraft and naval vessel is equipped with them.
directed energy weapons need a butt ton of energy to be really effective. Current ship based system struggle to shoot down a single drone over several seconds and are barely more effective than existing CWIS, Unless you have one thats scaled up in power by orders of magnitude and have it hooked up to the national power grid it's not going to keep up. And even if it were, strikes on said power grid would quickly collapse it.