Should Selbst FOLD Aces Full? (BRUTAL Cooler Analyzed)
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- čas přidán 7. 09. 2023
- Pocket Aces vs Pocket Sevens. Nut Full House vs QUADS. Vanessa Selbst vs Gaelle Baumann. A Legendary WSOP Main Event Bad Beat. Could you fold Aces full for your tournament life?
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It’s the WSOP $10,000 No Limit Hold‘em Main Event, Vanessa Selbst has Pocket Aces and Gaelle Baumann has Pocket Sevens on a board of Ace of clubs, Seven of clubs, Five of clubs, and Seven of spades.
Gaelle Baumann has four of a kind (Quads!) against Vanessa Selbst's Full House.
Can Vanessa Selbst ever fold the nut full house here? Should she ever even be considering it?
The thinking and poker strategy involved in this WSOP best moments hand is world class, so how about a world class poker pro like Phil Galfond to break it down?
This poker strategy hand breakdown is from a poker hand played on Episode 1 of the WSOP 2017 Main Event, you can find the footage on PokerGO.com.
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Great analysis! In particular, it was really interesting to hear you break down her thought-process step by step. There are many factors I would have totally missed. By the way, she seems to be a great player indeed... whatever some other youtuber with a similar haircut might say.
Selbst's heart said fold, her head said call. It is much easier to listen to our heart, Vanessa is disciplined enough to listen to her head.
Very nice analysis. The only thing I'd add is that Selbst knows Baumann is a bit of a "rock". That really helps make folding possible. In a weirdly funny theoretical situation; if Selbst was playing her "clone" as in against herself, then it's never possible to fold. After all, she has the absolute best possible hand she can ever arrive with at the river here.
11:26 this is weird point of view.. minutes earlier u said vanessa is representing a full house there - please make a video about spots where to bluff full houses profitable. i just can`t see my opponent folding 55+ there unless i played thousands of hands with him.
It's been a little while since a hand analysis gave me this much fresh food for thought, especially without a solver output. Thank you, Mr. Galfond. I can't wait to rewatch this in a couple hours. Have a wonderful day! :D
I love that sentence: she couldn't find this fold, because she's not supposed to find this fold.
I don’t know about you, but every time I See Vanessa, I wonder if she’s the one who wears the strap on
Donald Trump would have won the hand
The gentleman at the table who thinks she has a flush is the skill gap that Phil is talking about
If he said ak it would’ve been even funnier 😂if
how he supposed to know it ain't a flush?
@@a55tech cause a flush snap folds after overbetting the river and getting raised all in
@@Pokerfarhang ah i c tho can see newer players die on the flush just cuz other hands are unlikely ha
@@a55techOn a paired board, flush is worthless facing deep stack action. You all in with only nuts or 2nd nuts in action heavy play like this.
Basically like only all in with AA KK preop.
A flush will be beaten by any FH, so it’s basically like deep stack all in preflop with 88s or something, only donkey player do that.
Incredible breakdown and lesson on how to evaluate the strength of your hand based on the action that unfolds. Keep it up Phil! love the content.
This is one of my favorite hands. When I originally saw it, I liked Vanessa explaining why she considered folding. It helped an amateur like me understand the game better as does Phil's explanation. 👍
The explanation of her is most likely also a way to aquire information.
I mean Baumann bqsically knows selbst have AA, is she now uncomfortable or happy?
Many (top) poker player do this, or throwing hands in to get a range - especially when it is just about calling or folding.
Negreanu often guesses the hands of the opposition, but he is also off a lot but he gets over or under with such estimations.
That whole thought process, around whether she could've had A7s or not & Vanessa checking her suits & might even have folded if she had the Ah in her hand, is a fantastic example of the gulf between the best players & recreational players like myself.
Snap call for me, every time.
Also knowing what opponents will bluff, in cash games and most smaller tournaments players care less and will bluff more often
100% would have folded. She was very transparent that she thought there were only two possible hands her opponent could have, each with one combination. Thus 50/50 she wins or loses and there is already chips in the pot giving her the pot odds to call.
@@gs6810 "100% would have folded"...😂😂😅😅
Brilliant. Do you not know that you don't get to see the other player's hole cards, in real life poker...???
@@basdfef4775 Nah. I'm felted. As are the vast majority (if not all) of the people in the comment section, if we're being honest.
I'd be broke after that hand, for sure...😁
@@ivorscrotumic3556 Pretty sure he's saying Vanessa 100% would have folded if she had the ace of hearts, given the context of the rest of his comment. Given she didn't have the ace of hearts she had the pot odds to call.
ngl, this one play makes me respect her skills and intuition a lot more and makes her awful shove not as memorable lol
J7o against AA from Friedman you mean? Gotta be honest, her thoughts for that hand were legit aswell, just unlucky she went against AA 😅
i assumed he was talking about her pocket 4s vs A9o shove@@TheSherlockHomez
It was perfect shove. I mean, understandable. Every once in a while, we find ourselves in spots we didn't expect to find ourselves in. Everyone.
yeah i was referncing the j7 punt but the 44 shove is one too lmao@@markwinchester5434
@@markwinchester5434that wasn't so bad at least she was ahead before the flop just a typical tournament race 😂😂😂
Yt algo came in clutch recommending this video. Really great analysis. Very approachable for the casual viewer while still being informative for an experienced player
This was such an awesome hand by elite players and an elite analysis really showcases what hands each player is representing. I, of course, would have snap called fist pumping the river lol. Great video, Phil!!!
It was played horribly by Selbst. You're at level 1 of the WSOP. What are all of your chips doing in the middle? If a tight player like Baumann is shoving all her chips, she has quads. Selbst's ego is the reason she busted. She convinced herself from the flop that her full house was good. She deserved this because of her myopic line of thinking.
@@Zenigundamне было там паса...ты бы выкинул?... там пара пятерок так же ставили бы...
@@Zenigundam exactly. Selbst being Selbst, incapable of believing she can be beat.
@@Zenigundam Keep folding everytime there is a pair on the board because your opponent has to have quads 😂
@@Zenigundam oh sure buddy, a professional like you would have definitely snap folded in her position right xD love how you poker 'gurus' always think you're better and yet it's not your hand that's being analysed. The irony of saying that she has a big ego lmao
Vanessa is one of those players I typically like to pile-on, but kudos to her in this spot. Not only did she come within a frog-hair of making an unbelievably good fold in a spot where it's almost unthinkable, when she received the bad news, she handled it as gracefully as I've seen.
Usually she doesn't take it gracefully at all though and had her opponent been a man,we'd have seen a different reaction still
🤣 lmao had to bring the gender rolls into it 😂. Ppl like you are who create that type of mindset for others.. Being a woman opponent had absolutely nothing to do with how she reacted.. Nothing. She simply lost to quads at the main event, so there is nothing she could get mad about. Period. Nothing to do with gender.. So sad that ppl like you create these types of judgmental situations on others out of thin air and your own personal ego. Good luck at the tables
Yeah, Vanessa handled that cooler like a champ!! Way better than she did after 6-bet shoving with pocket 4's and getting called by A9o.
No player is going to fold aces full in the Main Event
this says more about you tbh, hating on Vanessa for no reason lol
If Vanessa had managed the fold, and Baumann had not shown, I think Vanessa would have felt even worse than she did losing the hand. This is a great hand in many ways, I think it also serves as an example of where folding correctly can throw someone into their worst level of tilt. I hope I can remember this the next time I make a tough laydown where I know I'm beat.
She for sure would have gotten the news by like 5000 mentions on Twitter alone as this was livestreamed with a delay (probably 30 minutes or an hour).
Would have been one of the greatest laydowns in the history of poker imho.
@@lightningsoulde this was before the live streamed days
@@lightningsoulde That would be after the night of poker, not in the moment of tilt
@@lightningsoulde yep the fact she really considered the fold. When you hit a certain level I think your way more conscience of the monsters under the bed I think it was part read and the somewhat pessimistic view top players have , but I could tell her gut was telling her she was beat but that dam brain told her she had to call.. the gut isn't always right but it sure is sometimes...
Correct about feeling worse if they don't show. If they don't show such a big hand your going to think they didn't have it and go on tilt. I have called for just that reason I'd rather be beat and see it.
The fish at the table: "You have a flush"😂
That’s why if I were in that situation and she asked me what I think she has I would just shake my head and not answer.
Dude wasn’t even in the hand and he gave everyone a read on his ability. 🤦🏻♂️
Yea I'm not a pro but I hope he was lowkey just trying to troll there lol. If he's made the main event there's no chance he believed either had a flush lol.
Yeah I'm learning about range vs range and range polarisation at the moment, he is me a few years ago
Phil, I love your videos. You explain & examine these hands soo thoroughly❣️ Great work as always.. ✌️&🫶 from Chicago ☺️
You wouldn’t believe how many people said they would fold this hand on the actual video
They should quit poker.
Vanessa broke it down perfectly. Since she could have had A7 of hearts, it's literally a 50/50 proposition. It's either that or the other two 7s. With that much money in the pot, she just unfortunately has to call. You could see the pain on her face, so brutal. One of my all-time favorite posters on 2p2, legend..
The only person I can think of who would have folded in that situation is Mike Postle; and he would have immediately folded the raise on 4th street! Haha!!
@@jaymiller6009 nah, he would have called then he would have open folded river lmfao.
Vanessa actually did break it down flawlessly.
There was one ACE and three 7's left unaccounted for.
and she knew the player well enough to know she wasn't bluffing ..... so it TRULY WAS 50/50.
either she had A7, or 77.
there literally is ZERO fold options there 🤷🏾♂
@@dhinton1 oh it's definitely not a bluff, certainly not on day one of the main event. That's the only conceivable way I could think of folding there, because with a decent stack and the blinds that low she's obviously so talented she could just accumulate slowly and wait for MUCH worse players to get involved with. But in real time, I'm sure I'd sigh call too...
@@jaymiller6009the instant the 4th seven came out Postle would have visibly frowned, shook his head and then folded lmao. He literally did that in a hand where he should have thought he was best. I think the other person made a set and were holding two of the same card so there was no way for postle to know the guy improved but he instantly looked frustrated when the card came out lol
This is the most incredible hand review I’ve ever seen. GREAT job Phil. Well done!
I had no idea Phil was doing these hand review videos. This is gold. Much appreciated Phil!
Love Phil’s commentary
Thank you ☺
Agreed! The best imo.
When you going to play at the lodge phil?
I ran into this exact situation at Daytona Beach Poker room, except it was Aces vs nines, no flush draw, and even referenced this hand while agonizing over the guys shove when he hit quads on the turn, I said this is the Vanessa Selbst/Gael Bauman hand. I unfortunately couldn’t lay it down either
To be honest, a huge part of the reason Selbst even has a decision here is because it's the Main Event. If this is a cash game that isn't super deep stacked Baumann is shoving 75, 55 and almost certainly a king high flush as well, and possibly some bluffs if she's really elite to maintain some balance. (i.e. the naked Kc). There's not many boats in Vanessa's range, and you can definitely hope to be called by AxKc, 7x or lower flushes.
In this exact spot, with pros valuing their Main Event lives so highly, all of that disappears, and even A7 becomes a "maybe she wouldn't shove it" spot. Which changes things entirely.
In over 99 out of 100 spots, if someone tanks here with AA it'd be incredibly obnoxious because they're almost always winning. This isn't one of those times though.
I remember that
@@MarioRossi-lh7rr you remember the Selbst/Bauman hand, or you were at my table?
@@Funktaro5well, I doubt someone would build a pot from 2k after the turn with the full house already out there, to 100k at the end of the hand with a flush. Especially at the main event against the only other pro at the table. But also not in cash games. Yes, if the hand was played a bit faster preflop and on the flop there is a possibility, but not with this action and this way of building the pot at the main event with the only 2 pro's on the table battling eachother.
Against a overbet check-raise on the turn and an overbet river raise a flush is nothing more than a bluff catcher.
@@Funktaro5 in cash games, that call will win more in the long run with similar pot odds.
I can't quite believe Selbst's reaction to Baumann's rereaise on the river, she is giving massive respect to Baumann, basically knowing she must have quads there. Incredible respect between both players.
She did Baumann a disservice even suggesting that she could be picking off A7, which has to be concerned about AA and is never getting called by 55. So tough to find the fold, but there is NO hand Baumann should EVER have in this spot other than 77.
This is nonsense. She has aces full and is pretending to be in a tough spot about what to do. She’s not folding aces full and all of this silly talk around that possibility is just that-silly talk. In this spot, you’re just going to take your beating. Nobody is folding, so just stop it.
@@MrJambereeof course she was in a tough spot, she literally got eliminated for not finding a near-impossible fold
It's actually a showing of disrespect. She's saying with her action to Baumann that "you're not good enough to find a bluff here." If she respected Baumann's game fully, she'd have snapped.
@@BW-eo3rn While you're technically right there very well may not be a single pro in the world that is bluffing in this spot in the Main Event. It'd be the ultimate punt to minraise all in on the river in level one in a spot where Selbst herself is almost never bluffing.
Implying that an ace of hearts would make this an easy lay down is silly. No one will believe quads until they get flipped over, especially when you are holding the second nuts.
The breakdown of checking if she had Ace of hearts and Ace of diamonds is something i would never think to do. And makes me realize just how much i have to learn despite playing for a decade. Great video Phil.
For real man.
i wouldnt give a shit quads is like 1 out of 200k hands,
@@madlok9114 yeah quads is rare approx 4000-1. BUT in a main event repeated raising and getting it all in on a paired board makes quads far far more likelier in that particular hand. Like Phil said, what is your opponent representing here? It's top full house, quads OR a bluff. And how likely is this bluff?
Even if you snap call here without thinking about anything, I don't think it hurts your overall profit as a player. You can comfortably call the second nuts as a general rule and still very much be a great player. That said it is definitely a smart thing to keep in mind to check suits and see if your opponents can have suited hands :D
you play 1-2 live with 200 max buy in stfu already
This hand recalls the fold deep in the Main Event the year before by James Obst with a full house vs a possible straight flush. Obst tanked, then mucked; his opponent had the goods.
James Obst is an amazing underrated player. I loved that hand, he made one of the sickest reads and despite all that money in the pot he made a discipline lay down.
Not sure, but it seems like people missed that Rosen folded the Ace of Hearts (0:34) . The evaluation gave Selbst 2% chance of winning before the river card.
She had the only 2 cards that could defeat her😢
Man what a tough spot for Doug can't really blame him for calling
I'm surprised there's not more likes?
😂😂😂
Lmfao poor ole doug to get busted like that!! Just brutal!!
Patty Mayo had him on tilt
Brilliant 😂
She got called "Sir" by a dealer one time.. no joke
Hi Phil love you contents!
Just an idea but I would appreciate it if you could make a video on optimal way of playing deep stack cash games with 300+ BB's. I feel like my sweet spot is around 150 BB's but when it goes beyond that I struggle with it sometimes. Also I would love your take on potentially folding KK's preflop when playing deep stacks (I recently ran into AA's with KK's playing 300+ BB's 🤣)
I don't know if you still live in Vancouver but if you do I hope you enjoy the sunshine while it lasts before it gets rainy going into autumn 🌞
I use to hate on Vanessa idk maybe because I never seen her crack a smile . But she seems alot more chill and that read was sick. She knew it. Gotta respect her
No, she didn't know it, otherwise she would have folded. But she was smart enough to know (as any decent player would have known) that the only hand that could beat her Aces Full was 77 to make quads. There is a difference between knowing what will beat you, and actually knowing whether the opponent has that hand.
Your clip just happened to pop up on my feed and I thoroughly enjoyed it. I play 2 house game tourneys a month and have been winning or placing consistently for the past 6 months. Consider myself an above avg player, but without you explaining why she wanted to check her suits on her Aces I would have never known. I've watched this particular clip 50x on fb thru the years. Your insight and analysis on why she said that will definitely be on my mind now in upcoming tournaments when making reads. All the best buddy!
50% chance to win, so it was a good call. But maybe, if A7hh vs overbet only calls thinking “im playing vs AA, A7 and 55. And 55 would fold, so if a shove im only getting called losing or drawing”, so if this is the case she can fold AA. But its too hard i think.
Two combos of A7 v one of 77 makes it more of a call.
@@williamdavis2505Only one combo of A7 suited, but even that is questionable, given how tight her opponent plays preflop
@@HighlyCruciferous ah I haven’t watched the hand in a long time didn’t consider the preflop action.
If she has A7 it's ironically a call bc Baumann never flats AA pre
You're excellent at explaining the strategy and the logic behind it, Phil.
Thank you very much 🙂
In this hand, it’s all just talk. Nobody is laying that hand down. It’s not happening. If the opponent has quads, you’re just going to take your beating. She called. Gave reasons why she thought she might be b beat, all meaningless. She called. Just like every other poker pro or amateur would do.
@@MrJamberee You are absolutely correct, and no one is going to fold top boat. No analysis is needed. I folded a boat one time against quads, but there were two other higher possible boats, plus the possible quads (which is what it was), and I knew I was up against one of those 3 hands that beat my boat (based on the beating action).
When Vanessa said “I wanted to fold” I didn’t believe a word of it. She was thinking A 7 there was no mention of 77 she makes excuses whenever she loses. Noone folds aces full.
the only thing i can think of here that could’ve saved vanessa is that her range of hands is uncapped having raised utg and never faced a 3bet so beauman knowing her range is uncapped and at the top vanessa range is going to be AA KK QQ AKs she knows vanessa could have AA which beats her but then you also got to think of maybe another thing vanessa was thinking if she has AA and doesn’t block any combos of A7s then beauman could have A7s and could be bluffing knowing she’s blocking the nuts quads 7s. so it goes back and forth but nonetheless i think both these players played it perfectly and the fact vanessa even thought about the fold is incredible
*i forgot to say AA beats beauman if she has A7s obviously she has quads 7s which doesn’t beat her but i was j saying vanessa could have aces which she did because her range is uncapped having raised utg and never faced a 3bet
but i think the thought that beauman going for bluffing holding Ah7h knowing she blocks the nuts 7s and jamming into vanessa hoping to pick up some fold equity knowing she has AA is rather unlikely i mean sure Vanessa at the bottom of her range could have 55 so it could also be a value jam with A7s but i don’t think so given the level of play here and the stakes being your tournament life
Great commentary. Love Selbst as well, proper old school aggressive play back in the day. There's no way she can fold, but it would've been the best fold ever televised for sure.
It would have been a minus EV fold if you're playing GTO. The only way you correctly fold this hand is if Baumann's hand flashed.
@@yoitsdanGTO should never be your reference in cooler spots lol
@@yoitsdanabsolutely a minus ev fold of playing gto, but sometimes you have to go with good old instinct and get an edge on gto. This would have been an incredible fold by instinct, but incredibly bad fold by gto. Agree with ya
@@yoitsdanFor the reasons that Phil covered in this video, this isn't a GTO spot. Both players have such huge edges over the majority of the field, and start the hand with so much stack depth, that they _need_ to deviate to maximize their ROI in the tournament.
Once Baumann takes 2/3rds-pot sizing on the turn, and then Selbt c/rs 3.5x and then _overbets_ on the river, Baumann has zero bluffs as played. The key difference of opinion that I have with both Selbst and Phil himself here is that - in this spot - I don't believe that Baumann _ever_ jams A7hh. Why? Because Baumann would have known that Selbst has the same disincentives to stack off as Baumann herself. Therefore a shove by A7hh would only be called by better. A7hh is a pure call once Selbst takes the c/r-turn-overbet-river line.
And if Selbst had been able to realize just _how_ unbalanced Baumann _has_ to be in that spot, I think she could still have found the fold. Crazy though it may be to say, I don't think that Selbst is good in that spot basically ever. Certainly less than 1-in-10, and likely less than 1-in-20. Along with the future value of, you know, _staying alive in the Main Event_ ... This is a pure fold.
And no, I couldn't have made that fold either. I'd have made the same rationalizations that Selbst did and stacked off too 🤣
Easy fold, right? I don’t think anyone would be able to fold there. Do you believe she would’ve folded if she had AAhd in her hand like she said? What if she just had pocket 5’s?
What’s to analyze? You have a full house. Of course you will bet.
No, you missed the whole point of the video. Someone like you would think they were going to win the pot 100% of the time, but good players can analyze and see that they might lose. Come play at my game John, we need more fish
@@kingpinballer242 there’s no ‘analyzing’ that hand. That’s total BS. You don’t get hands much better than that. Play it!
I think you need to play a lot of live poker to feel as sick as Vanessa did immediately after getting shoved on the river. I've seen many coolers where there might be a slight hesitation from someone in Vanessa's spot, followed by a rather quick call. Like you mentioned, huge props to Vanessa for even taking the time she did to rewind the hand and check the suits to make the decision. Although nearly every fiber in her body is screaming fold, there's always that spaz factor to keep in mind, or the A7hh combo. When I get coolered, I try and think to myself, "this is why we have a bankroll." Thanks for the break down!
Additionally she's just out of chips if she folds now. It's why even though her intuition is screaming to fold she can't do it because folding all but takes her out minus some incredibly good luck in the next few rounds of hands.
Phil, these 15 min tutorials are nothing short than fantastic !!!!! Thank you sir !
You’re very welcome!
Did it need to be 15 minutes long though? Jesus. Six minutes at most.
I didn't notice how long it was because, well one of the best players in the world commenting on another top player in the world about the hand reading, bet sizing, and thought process of an incredible hand I was too busy enjoying every minute.
Thank you Phil
When you talk about weaker players in the tournament, would that be the random dude who responds to the question (directed to Baumann) of “what do you think I have?” with “flush”?
The way she put through those chips in there it should have been a call. She was trying to get her to turn her hand over then when she sees quads she can say she didn’t call.
Phil I am a returning pro player who is re-sharpening his game and hoping to reach new heights. I want you to know I think your channel is great and I subscribed - not just because the advice and analysis is good but also I like your attitude, you seem kind and genuine.
Thank you! Good luck on your return 🍀
The guy needs to shut up
I love this format...Your hand break downs are top notch!
Thank you!
Insane hand and the fact that she seriously considered folding is mind blowing.. how many players would of even considered folding and not snap calling?
Selbst is one of the all-time most talented imho.
she says that every time she gets beat lmao
I agree but i think she has a bad rep just because she has a couple all time self-destruction moments haha@@PhilGalfond
Every player who doesn’t play poker for a living which w would be about 95%
@@FlyWithDelta she wanted to fold when she 438432bet shoved J7s against prahlad
Can someone explain the math? Vanessa has concluded she’s either beat by quads or won vs a7 suited. So when she’s says “I guess you could have a7 of hearts I call”
That’s 50% of the possible hands in her mind.. the other 50% is 77
If we are talking about 4 very specific cards
EITHER the 7 of diamond and 7 of hearts (because the other two are on the board) or the ace of hearts and 7 of hearts, the likelihood of having either of those hands is exactly the same
I think this is wrong . But can someone explain ? If there’s one combo of 77 she can have and one combo of A7, the odds are the same
What I’m getting at is that it’s weird she said since she could have ace 7 of hearts she had to call. Because that’s only 50% of the possibilities. And the other 50% had her beat. She was in a coin flip.. even in her own mind
Perhaps because there were other hands like pocket 5s or ace 5 possible (and maybe Gail would overvalue them) some % was added to the hands she beat (remember 50% of ace 7 hearts) so that it wasn’t 50/50 but 60/40 ....60% ace 7 hearts , 55, ace5, etc., and 40% 77 (just made the 60/40 up but you can see my point.. there were other possibilities instead of just the two, so it wouldn’t be 50/50)
A-5 is essentially worthless, a counterfeited two-pair. Given that 4-4 is out of the question, 5-5 is effectively the bottom full house where a shove should only be called by better hands. 7-7 seems more probable than Ah-7h.
The problem when you check the turn is that when they fire back at you, you get trapped into thinking it’s a bluff or semi-bluff. You sort of devalue the fact you could be behind. Obv with AA boat your never thinning your behind but I’m saying in other situations also
Thank you Phil. Wonderful analysis.
You’re very welcome!
9:42 - 9:47 : Me searching for meaning of live
Both Slebst and you are wrong in the analysis of Baumann's move. If she has A7h she'll consider with what Selbst will pay given how it was played. Given that the only hand that is left and will pay there a push by Baumann is AA, as 55 will not pay (facing possible A7, AA, 77), Baumann shouldn't push with A7. Therefore, the ONLY hand with which Baumann pushes there is 77, and Selbst should fold.
"I have to call is NOT binding" - but the forward motion was, because she never said CALL or I CALL
the fact that she paused and looked at her aces shows why she is such a great poker player and why I should not ever play poker!
😂
I would have snapped called jumping up and down, and been bummed to see the result. And that’s why I’m a losing poker player
Even winning poker players would snap here 99% of the time
If you’re a losing player it’s not because you’d snap call in spots like this.
What I don’t understand is after Baumann had quad 7s, why did it show that Selbst still had 2% chance of winning? Rosen folded the 4th ace at the beginning so Baumann should have been at 100%.
I love the both players, big inspiration for me. I've watched the hand before, but couldn't find this analysis by my own. Good video, it helped me to understand! I'm not a English native speaker, but I got the meaning
Thank you for giving us such insightful commentary on these interesting hands. No idea how you don’t have more subs - you’re more than just skilled and experienced, and you are concise and in-depth in your commentaries.
Thank you so much 😊
I’ll keep on doing what I do!
“Considered folding”. But she didn’t fold
You spoke a little about stack preservation specifically because these players have an edge. Do you think A7hh actually shoves? Vanessa almost folded AA here, so don’t think A7 is getting called by worse
Baumann in an interview after this hand said she would only call with A7s and not raise. But that’s only after she thought about the hand clearly, in the moment of the action, it might be different.
Also A7 suited isn’t necessarily a flat call on the button preflop. I think a lot of good players fold or three bet that hand, but I could be wrong
yeah gaelle said she probably just flats A7s because Vanessa's line is very strong, and it makes sense. If you have A7s what are you getting called by? I don't think Vanessa calls 55 at all, and 75s is obv not in that EP range, so it's just chopping the other A7s and losing to AA? (Note here A7s would actually be an easier call than AA since Gaelle can't have AA) so yeah A7s might just flat. But that's after some thought, in the moment it might be different. There has definitely been times when I value owned myself and realized afterwards what value was I really targetting? Also A7s flatting button there is pretty standard, I disagree with 3bet or fold. There's definitely no fold, and I don't really want to 3bet either. It's definitely not for value, and there's no need to isolate, also the equity of this hand is good enough to see the flop in position. Not to mention Vanessa's one of the biggest names in the tournament, you might just want to take it easy day 1 level 2
@@catheywang2574you think Vanessa wouldn’t play 75s against noobs? Hmm
She's like UTG+1 here. No 75s is way too loose to open@@AzeOfSpadez
I've never seen this chan before, but your breakdown of it was on point, and to a depth rarely offered on YT (or even in some paid courses!). The talking about hand reading, as in knowing what you are representing, giving villain enough credit to assume the same for them, and therefore knowing that they know what you are representing and can read their bets after accordingly and work out their range from that is rarely talked about for some reason (at least not with this kind of specificity). You have a new sub.
It must be painful to have to hyphenate selective words and then drop a concocted sentence to come maintain a image of intelligence 🙄
@@shadowdawg04 So you just spew shit randomly with no forethought?
Wow mad respect to Selbst on how she played the hand and her thought process.
The thing that was missed in this review was that an ace had been folded already early in the hand. Selbst was drawing dead on the flop. Not a 2% chance. Great breakdown though.
Thank you....been looking for this comment cos I didn't know why she had a 2% chance there
No, not dead on the flop. Dead on the turn…..Selbst was ahead on the flop….dead on the turn because the ace of heart is folded pre-flop.
I think you got confused. Thats Doug Polk. 😅
I don't get it. Can you explain?
Polks hair looking extra sharp in this video
The hair and they kinda look alikeish.. :D
Why is that funny?
😆
Hey Phil, I just wanted to check back in. Early on in your youtube career I sent some words of encouragement after you expressed some concern over all the stress and struggle of putting out videos and balancing life. I think at the time you had less than 5k Subs. I feel like it hasn't been quite a year and you are already up to 57K. I just want to say again that I absolutely love your videos. I am super thankful that you are willing to share your wisdom and knowledge of the game for free to everyone. After 15 years playing the game if I could pick a coach, it would be someone like you, so having your videos really helps me think through different spots. Thanks for the videos, I'll be sure to comment again when you hit 100k.
Thank you so much!
I really appreciate the kind words and your continued support, and I'm glad I'm doing a good job of hitting the mark!
This was a nice reminder that since then, I've delegated maybe 75% of the stress and work related to making these, and I'm able to now say that CZcams content doesn't add stress and doesn't take up too much of my time!
I've filled that time with other social media efforts (primarily with a newsletter, lately) but it's a great reminder that I can continue to improve my efficiency and delegation such that I narrow my time and energy spent down to the key elements of the job.
It can be hard to see progress while you're in the day-to-day grind. Thanks for offering me some perspective!
I think Phil is great at this. took too long to get into it in this way but in now. great format and delivery Phil
This exact thing happened to me two weeks ago. I had AA and flopped A33. Turn was a blank and river brought front door flush possibility. I bet on river, she pushes. I call.
She had 33. Haven’t played since.
Definitely needed a break.
i hate not seeing how deep each player is in this video, but love the video overall
Yea it takes some work to figure it out but you can after watching the full video. If you look pre-flop, it shows J8 in the bb had to call 250 to see the flop facing a 400 raise so the bb is 150 chips. At the end of the hand they put in 36000 chips on the river and approximately 7000 chips from pre till river so they were around 42000 chips deep, around 280bb.
Which Hand would Baumann target with her move on the River, If she has only a7? So i suggest, Baumann would have just called with a7
I saw that hand on ig reels and I didn’t even recognize it until Selbst starting saying “I wanted to fold”. Watching it with breakdown, it just looks so different
That was the most relaxed iv ever seen Vanessa take a bad beat and get eliminated, she was definitely in a good place that day and had better things to do evidently ☺️
Yeah, she took it like a champ. She had perfectly good justifications for going either way, made her decision, and stuck by it. That's really all you can do.
This break down is so valuable, this is what seperates the best players from others like myself. I will be completely honest I would've snap called any day of the week if I were in that situation. Very valuable breakdown of the whole thought process as well as checking the suits and everything. I;ve got lot of learning to go still
With that humility that you have, you can achieve anything
She was drawing dead. The last Ace was folded pre-flop.
I saw the same thing, one of Rosen ‘s hole cards was the A❤️. I was wondering why they were giving 2% chance when A was dead.
Tough one, but no one made any mistakes here. This is an example of why I personally prefer cash games. Beats like this are not under your control but take on an outsized importance in the large tournaments. You have to be unusually lucky to win anything of significance in a large field tournament, even if you have a large skill edge. Even pros probably cannot play enough large field multi day tournaments in their entire lives to reach a high probability of equilibrium.
NLHE is a luck bucket game. Period. No one can truly make money at the game playing in a casino for cash, the rake simply cannot be beat. So unless you are playing in private home games with the likes of Bilzarian and the old Full Tilt sponsored players, there is no way you're making better money in poker than you would getting a job or running a company with the money.
@@id10t98 say that to winning players like me lol you just suck bro
Great breakdown Phil- your delivery is easy for newer players to grasp as well as those of us who have been playing for years. Thanks, man.
Awesome! Thank you very much 😊
@@PhilGalfonddefinitely a great analysis ..... and i have enjoyed watching you play too 💯
Thanks for breaking down such a memorable hand from Doug
Why was selbst's chance to win still 2% after that 7 rolls off the turn? One of the other players folded the case Ace so therefore isn't she drawing stone cold dead? Edit pt 2, btw phil love your stuff, extremely informative and you make sense with everything you say
Thank you so much!
Some TV graphics packages take the folded cards into account and some don't.
Nice catch! The announcers didn’t catch that either. She was drawing cold dead.
Thanks for asking, just typing that up wonder what run out was possible.
@@Mdevlin0 yeah thats what i thought too lol, they said she needs the case ace, i was thinking she'll be needing for a long time lol
@@PhilGalfond Which do you prefer? I like not taking into account the folded cards so you see what the equity is like from the player's perspective.
Vanessa is NEVER seriously thinking about folding that hand. NEVER. That's what makes this so sick.
Subscribed, great breakdown man
I had this happen once I had quad 4s vs aces full at $4/8 limit. Was my first time ever playing in a casino and a very tough line up to say the least and a $4/8 limit game. My hands were shaking so bad but we eventually got it all in. I kept looking to see if there was a straight flush or something haha I was very nervous with the nuts.
What is limit poker? And how can you be all-in then?
@@terencehill3972 betting $8 back and forth till all the chips are in. $4 bets on the flop $8 turn and river bets
@@terencehill3972you bet $8 at a time till you are all in lol. You have heard of three or four bets. This was like a 30 bet haha. Forgot I commented on this video
Can't fold just a sick cooler. Checking the suits was cool. Well played by both players.
@@Boltzmann-eh7uf yes!!!!
Phil your a 🐐, I’ve been watching your play for a long long time and knew years ago you were very far ahead of your time!! Keep being great bro 💪🏼💪🏼
I've watched a lot of CZcams poker videos, and this ranks at the top of the list. Next level thinking.
vanessa can neva fold lol
Can't wait until he discusses it on Polker Hands.
how slow rolled would you feel if you actually had A7 of hearts
I've disliked vanessa before, but this one makes me feeö bad for her. She took that really well and was spot on in her suspicion. But given the pot odds and possibilities she didn't have a choice. Well played.
Massive decision for Doug Polk there.
Selbst is pretty impressive tbh
She's ridiculously talented.
She certainly seems to think so.
@@hxhdfjifzirstc894and how exactly do you know that's what she's thinking? xD
Why overbet the river? Why not just a large bet, like 2/3 or 3/4 of the pot? Could someone explain please? Because the opponent’s response makes the range more polarized and gives you more certainty you’re not up against bluff? Meaning your opponent would only raise an over bet with absolute nuts?
This is brilliant analysis Phil. Great breakdown of how the best go about their business by one of the best. Thanks.
Thank you 😊
Too much talking. Just show the hand.
Too much commenting. Just watch the video.
I dispise Selbst with a passion but for her to almost fold says alot about what a great player she truly is.
In a cash pot this is definitely the right play, but can you argue that because it is an "all or nothing" call in a tournament that it is a laydown?
"How can I fold?" well, folding would do it... never once did she nor Phil consider for more than a second she could have 77, which, of course, makes the most sense!!
One thing I've picked up on watching the elite pro players is when they say "I don't know if I'm good enough to fold this" they always should fold. It's a very rare occurrence, and it's almost always second nuts vs the nuts. Which is why I rate Scott Seiver very highly as I remember a clip of him saying "nothing like having second best" before folding reluctantly.
Great breakdown,thankyou, I did learn something:)
That would've been the most grim realization if Vanessa looked down and saw she had the ace of hearts. Funnily enough not having it was the Grim reaper himself. Poker is sick like that.
If Negreanu says Selbst is tough as nails to play against- then she is really tough despite the occasional hate she gets for some people. I think she is underrated
How do they figure the probabilities? We saw Rosen fold with the ace of hearts, so there should have been 0%, not 2% chance for Selbst at the river. And the announcers could have known that too, no ace was coming.
I have found in my experience it is almost Always a bad idea to slow-play the turn---regardless. The real question is the amount to bet. Forgot to add: GD Right I'm calling that bet!
Does A7 even shove here on the river this early in the main event?
Hi Guys. Shop looks great. Just wondering are Your Canadian views able to win the S10.
"empty boat of aces full" is a really clever line, nicely don lon!
Waste of time. What to analyze? If you do not call with a full house, then what hand you play? Only royal flush?
This is a great breakdown of a hand at every street. Thanks Phil
You’re very welcome!