Arjo's "Fair Value Gap" Theory
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- čas přidán 27. 08. 2024
- In this video, I discuss my fair value gap theory in detail.
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I'm a trader who trades with investor's capital, I learned the basics through ICT / SMC and from there my knowledge came from my own studying and failures.
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Disclaimer:
I am not an attorney, accountant or financial advisor, nor am I holding myself out to be, and the information contained in this video is not a substitute for financial advice from a professional who is aware of the facts and circumstances of your individual situation.
This is one of the best videos I’ve seen in a minute. Absolutely stellar man.
🙂🙂🙂
You can say that again bro. POWERFUL
It’s a gamechanger, imho.
But it does rely on having a very firm grasp on fundamental (ICT) FVG and price delivery theory.
@Arjoio I been wanting to say Thank you for these videos. I have improved greatly as a trader. I been using break away gaps on the m30, 1 hour or 4 hour time frame as an entry area to get into my trades and I use 3 moving averages for the 5 minute time frame to confirm a buy or sell. I don't use your concepts exactly as you do in your videos, I use them in my own way that I came up with. But I also check daily, weekly, or monthly charts to see if there's any FVG resistance I should be aware of before taking my trades
This one principle you're sharing here is nothing short of a revelation. I could be listening to ICT for 4 more years and I would still have no idea where price is likely headed. Whereas you can give a clear explanation of something really powerful and potentially game-changing in the first 5 minutes of your video. I'm so happy that the whole 'mentorship' stuff has finally been taken over by a new generation. Thanks, man!
This is exactly how I felt! I have gone thru ICT videos and mentorships multiple times and I had never picked up on some of what Arjo shared here.
Also with all due respect every videos on original ICT is not clearly explained or to the point. He is a genius but not that clear, this new kids are really amazing. They make things simple and powerful. "If you can explain things simple means you have understood it." - This video is an example of that statement.
Us moment 😂
@@vchandm23 What makes you think ICT is a genius?
@@backtested-on8ev - Whether we like it or not under him there has been a huge amount of students benefitting, hence he is genius. It is hard to inspire one but he is doing it in thousands.
Hands down, your nuances and small details that no one else shares makes your teachings extraordinarily effective.
This is like the Hoy Grail of the FVG! Nobody has ever expained FVG's like this. You are a true game changer brother. Thank you so much for all the vauable lessons that you give out for free. 🙏🙏❤
That 3rd candle concept is great. I'm going to be studying that. The number of times that I have been left waiting at the lower/higher FVG and not getting filled 😒. Then sometimes I have an order which I don't cancel, and by the time that price does reach my order, we are then travelling in the opposite direction.
Try drawing a quadrants grid over the current dealing range and watching for price showing an unwillingness to pullback further than 50%, or if it does, to tap that 50%-75% quadrant then displace away again.
Additionally, seeing the AIgo completely fill in FVGs past the range's EQ is a sign of weakness, with 3 PD Arrays within premium or discount of the range getting broken being the last line in the sand. 👍
Exceptional ❤🔥
My 2¢:
1. The video needs to be watched about ten times. It’s very nuanced and expecting to “get it” on one watch is madness.
2. Take it to the charts. Clear everything else off them. Find the nearest HTF breakaway, then work down the TFs from there, then just watch price. Trade nothing. Watch the video again and again while price plays out.
3. This is a lesson in probabilities, not guarantees. Likelihoods, not certainties. That means that it puts us waaaay ahead of just about everyone else. Especially as working down to LTFs to find entries KNOWING THE LIKELY DIRECTION means any losses will be small and wins will eclipse them by a long way.
4. No man’s land is still real. Sometimes there IS no bias. So switch assets or sit on hands until one presents itself.
4. A disrespected FVG after a Draw on Liquidity still seems (in my backtesting) to often work well as an inversion level, on the way to next target.
This video has allowed me to clean up my charts and my head by about 75%
Like i said, just my read on it.
Wow.... amazing work Arjo. I learn something new every week. Please continue with the next video. You're a true blessing to us "retail traders".
Mind blown! Your are both a master of your craft and generous with the sharing of your useful knowledge. I have not yet come across anyone who can so succinctly explain and demonstrate this. Very grateful to you my friend. Thank you.
Bedankt Arjo. This video clarifies the application of FVGs.
So I see that when you went down the time frames; you did not filter probability at M15 @ 10:45 (the 3rd candle closed past the previous candle high). Does the 3rd candle close matter/not matter on M15 tf?
Look forward to your take on time 👍🏽
i had the same question, that M15 FVG is a breakaway gap because its last candle closed above the 2nd one's high, so it shouldn't be traded into before it hits liquidity.
I noticed the same thing 👀
@nicholasd551 let me try to answer your question. The H1 timeframe already has a breakawaygap. Diving into the M15 is justvto look for a fvg that might be traded into. But you noticed that the M15 Fvg is even lower than the H1 brakaway gap. You noticed he said IF PRICE WANT TO TRADE INTO ANY FVG. That implies that you wait to see what price will do. I hope this helps
Move this to the top, same question
Also in 14:07 with the 4h FVG, closed above and returned
This is the video I’ve been waiting for… because you see both a bullish and bearish one and don’t know whether to long or short it
You know, by figuring out where the overall draw on liquidity for that day & week is. Problem solved.
@@biggalaxy9102exactly
Higher Timeframe (HTF) context tips the market’s hand. There are exceptions but trading congruently (i.e. with the HTF trend/bias & structure) allows me to ignore Lower Time Frame (LTF) FVGs that are against the HTF trend and I wait for one of these to be invalidated before considering entry. These are also known as Inverse FVGs. In general, I want to be trading with a tailwind, not into a headwind!
arjo, your FVG wisdom has been a game-changer for me. A piece of the puzzle that was missing that has increased confidence in setups and winrate. Thankyou
This is litterly the best trading concept you can find on CZcams.
Honestly one of your best videos Arjo! Thinking a lot of people won't even comprehend how important this video is to understand. This literally provides a set of rules (basically a trading plan) that people can jump right into! Thank you as always for your contributions to the trader community!!!! ❤
This should be the most viral FVG tutorial video on the internet.
You break down this the most simplest way ever. Thanks man.
He has his own theory right there. Not perfect but something to keep in mind
WAOH Arjo !! you opened my eyes on FVGs !!! what a gem !!
thanks for your work, I will re-watch it and take my notes 🧠
When it comes to fair value gap theory nobody comes close to you.. Thank you for sharing this insights with us. You are a blessing to traders especially struggling traders ❤. You’ve really improved my understanding of price action ❤❤
He really is good on these FVGs.
I feel you, but it should be said that Breakaway Gaps are FVGs that won't be COMPLETELY filled, not that they won't be traded into at all. This is from the guy who developed the concept, namely lCT. I get that he's an awful teacher when it comes to explaining technical ideas but that doesn't automatically mean everyone should just bypass all his teachings and go straight to his students for all the answers..
this is my last puzzle of my strategy, thanks a lot Arjo🙏
but in 15 fvg , the 3rd candle also closed above the 2nd candle which means its breakaway gap
Higher time frame is more important
had the same question
So you meant high time frame from 4H above right
same question@@edmundtetttey1083
exactly and he conveniently skips that, lol. What's the point of going ltf if you already found a discount array in daily
Yes please a vid covering the aspect and importance of time. Thank you for another packed video! Cheers.
At the 10:45 mark - the 15m FVG qualified as a likely breakaway gap, as it closed above the second candle high. Yet, it was traded into before going higher. Why would this be an exception to the rule/theory?
Need an answer to this
i think its because we already had a 4h breakaway gap and now you are just looking to enter, but I might be wrong. i'd wait for our dear arjo to anwer
maybe 15min and less all FVGs are used as non B-FVGs ?
in the 15min the price had got to the DOL so it allowed price to go back
because it conveniently worked out so its an exception 😂
Arjo Sir , Such a tremendous Knowledge of FVG you have shared in your past videos and i can see instant amazing growth in accuracy in my Trading, Thanks a lot sir ! Please be aware CZcams have habbit of deleting channels which helps mass to earn money, it's all about Metrix !
This FVG theory by far has the best explanation which really makes a lot of sense. This has changed my view on each FVG. Thanks Arjo for putting a lot of effort into this!
My goal has changed in trading, I would save up, and enter into your class someday! Again, thanks, Arjo!!
Wow Arjo, you’ve done it again! Coming to the CZcams with the HEAT! I’m a MMT member and I’m always surprised at all the fire content that you still manage to share for FREE with the CZcams family. Don’t sleep on this you guys!! 🔥🔥🔥
Your videos are insightful and informative. Ever since i started learning and using Fair Value Gaps my trades have been getting better. I sincierly thank you.💯💯💯💯💯❤❤❤
You answered my Million dollar question I had for the last 6 months @8:00 - @11:00, 5 minutes of everything.
Once I make decent money, I will join your Mentorship. This is awesome stuff, thanks a ton. Hope i will qualify for it.
Great video! However, be aware , this rule does not apply every time - today on gold 1M chart at 15:09 uk time a fvg was formed. The third candle (pinbar) closed higher than the second expansion candle. Price didn’t propel upwards after the third candle but retraced to 50% on the fvg created. Conversely, the previous fvg created at 15:07 (which attested to the rule) wasn’t tested, but price shot up ferociously.
Well, the lower the timeframe the less "rules" are respected...you can't always apply these complex concepts on 1m or even 3m timeframes... I trade on 60m timeframe using my method, but I tried back testing on lower timeframes, and it didn't work at all.
Arjoio is bringing everything out with love for his followers ❤❤❤
Oh my God! This is mind blowing. This is the holy Grail...Thanks to my Ancestors, i finally found a mentor.
Thank you my trading skill has improved and I’m grateful.I keep on learning something new so please continue with the next video.
one of the basic concepts of ict is price looks for external liquidity ( swing high/lows) to internal liquidity (fvg, imbalances, etc) this fvg theory fits right into that . if candle closes above breakaway candle then price targets external liquidity before it returns to internal liquidity. if candle closes below breakaway gap price targets internal liquidity before it moves to external liquidity,. so external -internal , internal-external
I just took notes right there thanks
Bro you hear the people and deliver 😢🎉 this channel is a gem 💎
I have to leave another comment. Watching the back end of this video you must have heard the clicking in my mind. The breakaway candles and liquidity sweeps you mentioned have opened my eyes to something I can use. For each FVG I have my indicator highlight for me, I'll now be checking for breakaway or liquidity sweeps. Close above the high or close below the high. So what I did was to test this theory in replay mode with the indicator switched on. Now for the most part break away candle did work and candles that didn't close above the previous high did return to FVG before going higher. BUT NOT ALL THE TIME! Now I realize this theory would hold water for a majority of the time and under trending conditions I'm sure it would work really good. Help me clear my thinking on this. At what stage should this theory be applied (trending, consolidation or expansion) to help clear my thinking.
YOU ARE SO KIND TO SHARE THIS GEM ... I AM VERY THANKFUL BRO !!!!
This video is fantastic. I am very much looking forward to the video on Time. Thanks Arjo
The best explanation I have ever seen.... no more systems needed to learn anymore. Good understanding of FVG's is enough and of course no indicators to be used.
you need more confluence than just fvg, and this concept of breakaway fvgs dont always work lol, good luck brother
After ICT, you are my mentor, a must watch mentor. ICT gave me complicated Basics (no offense) and you summarize those complicate things. Thanks you for you service. I wish I could pay regards when I'm able to. Thanks again.
We need Time video. Arjo you are an amazing teacher. I have learnt so much from you
2nd comment on this video and about the 10th time I've watched it! Again, just wanting to say THANK YOU! This just sealed it up for me in more ways than you can imagine! A trading plan in its own!! FANTASTIC!!!!
Does the break away gap only apply to 4 hour and up? Because the 15 minute had break away and still still worked. Can you explain this please? Otherwise, great video! I'm learning so much.
Yes, I saw the same. I don't know if it is only in 1h up
I love the simplicity man. Appreciate it. TIME video incoming...
Keep up the Great work!
Wow! It makes a lot of sense, especially when defining bias on HTF. Thank you!
Makes a lot of sense
Quite possibly the best video on the net about FVGs
Awe Thank. It is bro. They confused me alot especially on knowing whether they were going to be traded into. The theory is not 100% but it works
Absolutely! the bias is so clear now🤑@@illuminatefx
I never seen before that type of knowledge on CZcams love you sooo much Sir❤
I thought I knew FVGs, until I watched this video. The best Breakaway Gaps video that I have come across.
I can't stop thanking you Arjo for this advanced knowledge of looking at the price Charts that you sharing for free. I'm Now only waiting for the day you will share some highlights of your psychology plan. After that I think I will be thick enough to face the charts on my own
All trading fear is born of ignorance. Arjo is dispelling that ignorance, one video at a time.
And I mean just as much for me as anyone
Brother this video changed my view. Last week i made 1k in profit alone with this concept 👽 I could have watched ICT like another 5 years without having this view like you give us. NEXT STEP -> MMT MENTORSHIP. Please share more of this nuggets 🤝
This is definitely one of your most essential videos. Thank you, and yes, the next video, please.
But I won't be me without a question. 😁 On the subject of breakaway gaps of course, why take the breakaway gap on the 15-minute chart at 10:48? Price did return to it but why? Because it was on a lower time frame?
This is what I've been looking for concerning FVGs
For the Ones asking about min 10:45 fvg being a breakway. Remember the concept of TIME.
The FVG gets traded into at NY OPEN, thus mkt looking for Liq at mkt open to continue with the move. A Judas swing if you wanna put on ICT jabber
Then the entire concept from the start doesn't make sense. The main focus of this video should have been time vs FVG's :|
@@robingabriel7710 indeed my friend, time is the next video. This one only covers breakaway gap with the notion of time. regards
When is NY Open? I see a lot of people saying 8am, 8.30am, 9am.. Which one is the correct one?
@@khodk2144 ny time 7 to 9 am is kz ny and 9 am is Open ny . 🤝🏿
I feel like we need to check what time is the break away gap created to know if it is institutional sponsored.
For example if it formed outside our kill zones say Asia then the beak away gap might be traded into during kill zone times..
We need to incorporate time and price to actually make best use of this concept.
Education is the most precious gift.
Cannot thank you enough for this. You're doing God's work.
What incredible information, it will really make a lot of difference when looking at the market and reading the FVG. Thank you very much master Arjo.
You are a very knowledgeable and good teacher explaining things very clearly!
So I think I understand,
On weekly its breakaway, no returning (short term)
On daily it's value, it will return (within days, because it skipped the part for first touch entry which requires to wait few days - aka we can look for another trade while waiting for this move)
On 4h, break away, no returning (short term)
On h1, nothing to trade of off
Then we have no other choice but to trade on 15M, if we want a discount level. (I noticed that 15M should have been a breakaway, but it wasn't, I think on ltf the price is easily manipulated by a few sells or buys, but on htf it's difficult to manipulate the price to go back into a break, because it will require a lot of buy and sells to reach that point)
The result was, entered at 15M waited till target, by that time the Daily price is ready to go back into its value gap, and which we can see on the weekly because of the new day we traded in.
So now
On Weekly, value gap return
On Daily, value gap return
And we got ourselves a 1 day trade while waiting for the big play.
I have seen so much crappy videos out there, I donot easily subscribe to a channel. After watching this video I learned something very new, I never thought about FVGs this way ever! Thank you for sharing your knowledge and you earned my subscription to your channel!!! Thanks again Arjo !!!
Wow, this video was so informative. I'm blown away on how this was explained. So needed. Thank you
the candle closing above previous candle high to identifty if its a breakaway or fvg is a good tool will defiently use
You are gonna spoil us with these Saturday morning gems. Good stuff as always. Thank you
doubt: at 10:47 he uses an example of the 15min FVG that we would expect to be played to continue rising. However, in this 15min FVG, the third candle also closed above the second, so shouldn't we assume that this 15min FVG was also a breakwaygap and was not touched?
time
@@zewkel9089 killzones?
@@CaioIRamos yes and maybe news in that kill zone. That is what I believe happened
Thank you so much and many blessings to you. And yes, please bring more detail regarding Time.
Really very excellent i have not seen anyone before explaining ict concepts in this way .please continue with this way and i wish you more progress and success thank you very much
You are made for this Arjo, you are a great teacher. The video is the best i have watched on fair value gap
Bro, great lesson. I didn't know this topic well. thank you.
You Insane Arjo. Love you 💗. I've improved a lot by following your videos, thank you so much
I never seen this logic of trading FVG . Great and please make second relevant part
Another perfect logic of FVG. Thank you for your informations
"Market Wizard" Thank you Sir for your precious knowledge. This helped a lot to understand what's going on in Market.
You have Changed my way of Fvg 😮
wow!!!! this video about FVG 😊😊 is absolutely the best !!
thank you sir
Thank you for making such critical topic so comprehensive for us.
Arjo, thank you! I find your lessons very useful and important!
we need part 2 ASAPP🔥
Thank you for your video, excellent idea and explanation. I appreciate that you slowed down and marked your FVG darker, it makes following you so much easier. Great job
Thank you bro one of the best video i've seen thank you so much. yes we need the next video please god bless you
Bro.. this video just elevated me, I see it! I don't know what to say but thank you for this piece of the puzzle in my mind!
Flawless flow.. Much appreciated
Break away gaps happen at the extent of the range, in the discount of the operation; if you are long, they happen near the lows, if you are short, they happen near the tops. In aggressive moves they also form near equilibrium and the breakout point, because all price under that is already technically "balanced"... Fake fair value gaps also form as balanced price ranges, and because they've already been balanced, there is no technical "imbalance" present. These often form inversion fair value gaps, and inversion fair value gaps often have more than a 3 body structure, and will have trailing LTF candles in the upper and lower extend of the HTF fvg; i.e, the 30 minute does not seem to have a FVG, while the 15 or 5 does, the 15 or 5 will trade as an inversion gap, the current 30m candle will be consolidating/ready to break, and the ltf fvg is often already inside of a BPR as said earlier... Just some personal notes of mine. Been studying these concepts all year and started a funded account challenge in October.
This is gold, this is a lot of money
gem of a video. gave me clear defination of FVG i was lookimg for
This was it - the pinnacle of fvg and i finally grasped it. Looked straight into the charts and was stunned when i saw how powerful fvgs really are. Thank you my g i owe you one. Anyone can tell me since when this fvg theory exists?
I have a question: With that 15min FVG entry; arent we in the process of creation that 3rd candle of the FVG on the 1H and if that 3rd candle would not close above the previous 1H candle the price would trade into the 1h FVG and take out our position. So there would be a reason for price to come lower. How to battle that?
Out of all of your video this the first video what exactly your talking about. You started fvg videos without explaining what it really is in the first hand. Now I got it.
Absolutely brilliant !!!!!! Cant wait to watch all your videos Absolutely priceless. Thank you for the indepth wisdom and knowledge.
every week always on point
I love this man, thank you so much for the info. It is transforming my trading and my mentality! I'm going to stick to this for at least 6mo and will get back to you on how my trading acc. looks! Can't thank you and Jesus enough!
Always looking forward to learning more from you,you have really chanhed my point of view ,Im already in profits since i started listening to you,thanks alot bro❤
one question, at 10:48 you went down to the 15m TF although the 3rd candle closed above the previous candle which means it should be a breakaway gap yet you still wanted to see it trade back into it, is there a reason for that?
@arjo
This is what i was missing ❤thanks brother for this invaluable knowledge
Love your work and how you simplify the explanations, would love to see the next video.
I haven't watched this movie yet, but I know I have to prepare paper and pen, because there will be a lot of valuable information! you are a good teacher, the question is if we go higher, where do we go higher from? is the key and this alone allows you to earn money, you just have to be patient, FVG tell the whole story. thanks good man!!!❤
FVG that have 3rd candle close above prev candle high are breakaway gaps... that's such a gem. omg
A-M-A-Z-I-N-G-G-G-G-G....Congrats for content !!!!!! From Brazillllllllllllllll......
wow! this is one of the best videos , beautifully explained..yes we would love to learn more about the 3rd step to understand a breakaway gap( time factor)
hello, mr Arjo. Thanks to share your knowledge for free.
but in the 11:05 minute you mentioned a FVG on 15 minute Time Frame. So, my question is: Is this FVG (15 minute) is not a breakaway gap? i'm asking this because the third candle closes above the high of the second one.
Thank you.
beautful logic.. respect to you and how you bring all this to the the community
bro i already profitibale only with fvg now bcz ur video, Arjo goat !!! love from Indonesia :)
Arjo, you are a master piece. I see when you went to 15min TF i thought, as you were explaining, that was a breaker way gap but price came back to fill the FVG before continuing higher. Do we treat 15min differently?
this was my question, he says yadda yadda yadda fractal and that 15 closed above so it shouldn’t have come back by that rule
He said: "If you want to enter in a fair value gap, it will be the 15min", which, in my understanding, means the rule is to be applied on higher TF (1h and above)
@@bilyonarelifestile2226yeah bro it’s one hell of an oversight! You cldn’t get a more herculean breakaway gap than a 15min inside an 1hour gap and what does price do? You bet, it trades into it! 😂🎉🎉
Otherwise I like the video. I’m sure he’ll explain it.
@@bronson1392 Yeah, I love his understanding and explaining of the markets. I hope he throws some insight into this little confusion.
Bro this was definitely needed, After some backtesting I can say this video is certified gold!. Never looking at FVG's the same again. thank you!
how did you backtest it? I did it on the NQ weekly for the last 2 years and I find exactly 50/50 working/ not working
so like it's random
@@albertthorval4674 There are multiple factors that you have to take in. Most of this stuff deals with probability and context. using the higher TF has helped see the larger picture as well
That click was so thunderous, even my neighbors started googling "DIY fallout shelters!" They were convinced the sky was falling, or at least that a meteor was having a particularly bad day 💥 😅. Love you man please keep the great work going I will Keep my eyes peeled for the next part ❤❤❤
Please make a video about validating time. I agree with what you said, time is crucial to get involved in the operation.
This might be my missing piece of knowledge to be actually became consistently profitable, thank you boss