Has China’s Power Peaked? Ian Bremmer vs. Michael Beckley
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- čas přidán 16. 02. 2023
- This was supposed to be the “Chinese century.” In just a few decades, China transitioned from a developing economy to the world’s second largest. Measured in purchasing power parity, it actually surpassed the U.S. economy in 2014, and has since expanded its military, monetary, infrastructure, and soft power capacities in ways that all seemed to point to long-term advantages as a rising power. At the Communist Party’s five-yearly congress in October 2022, Xi Jinping cemented his place as the country’s “helmsman” and its most powerful person since Mao Zedong, with an unprecedented third term as party chief. And yet the failure of China’s zero-COVID policy, a slumping economy, apparent supply chain vulnerabilities within its technology sector, and a problematic demographic profile have all raised questions about the scope of China’s future power. Those who say it has peaked say the Chinese system is facing significant economic headwinds, uneven innovation, a heavy debt burden, as well as mounting frustrations among its younger populations with regard to upward mobility and censorship. Those who say it hasn’t peaked argue that while the nation’s economic growth has indeed slowed, massive Chinese spending in infrastructure, defense, and technology will nonetheless allow it to enlarge its global power projections well into the future. Against this backdrop, we debate this question: Has China’s Power Peaked?
Arguing “No” is Ian Bremmer, president and founder of Eurasia Group, a leading global political risk research and consulting firm. He is also a founder of the digital media firm GZERO Media. Bremmer is the foreign affairs columnist and editor-at-large at Time magazine, where he writes about China, U.S. foreign policy, and geopolitics. He has published ten books, including “Superpower,” “The Power of Crisis,” and the national bestsellers “The End of the Free Market” and “Every Nation for Itself.”
Arguing “Yes” is Michael Beckley, formerly of the Harvard Kennedy School, the US Department of Defense, the RAND Corporation, and the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He is the author of “Unrivaled: Why America Will Remain the World’s Sole Superpower,” has a PhD in political science from Columbia University, and is currently associate professor of political science at Tufts University.
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I don't think either Beckley or Bremmer really have a complete grasp, but what is so refreshing here is that it is a real debate, using real data points that can be analyzed, supported, challenged and disputed using other data points, without hyperventilating screeching statements like you see in certain outlets....
It's good to hear an honest and respectful debate, and one that is free of rancor and ill will.
hahahahahaah from his narrative you know immediately he picks up everything bad about China and China suddenly doomed in every angle.
I can challenge every point he said. Really he made a fool of himself.
China's lower sales is because of the worsening economies of India , west and USA all in recession.
Fact is when China is one super rich country , gathered so much wealth and suddenly because of west recession , ooooooh China collapsing.
China aging population ? He is talking nuts about that . Do you know that it is India that will face the biggest disaster with uncontrolled population growth
In the coming age of AI, technology robotics , automations practically most of India's youth would have no jobs .
But China with less population can fare better .
just an example I say , this Michael knows nuts.
There’s something inherently wrong with the concept of continuous growth while there are finite amount of natural resource and people to produce goods and services.
This is exacerbated by China's lack of natural resources, food products and china's wasteful domestic spending. All it takes is for the other countries to walk away. That's why China's backed down on their wolf warrior diplomacy.
A great stagnation for the world is inevitable because of that. It's simply impossible to maintain exponential growth forever. So even if the world transitions to linear growth, it will feel like stagnation compared to the exponential growth that came before it.
Of course you are right. And of course you only hear male voices talking. Gee whiz! No child care, no elder care, no way, Jose.
Next time launched a program-Has America's power peaked?
If not peaked, people don’t bother asking the question
It's a fair question. But the fact that no one is seriously asking it kind of provides your answer.
Who spends more on defense/military? No one.
Who has a stronger military? No one.
Who has a deeper global reach with hard, military power? No one.
Who has a stronger currency? No one.
Who has a larger GDP? No one.
Who has a deeper global reach with finance? No one.
Who has more diplomatic, soft power reach? No one.
Who has more basic high tech research and development? No one.
Who has more people working on new, fundamental technology? No one.
Even if US power has peaked and does not increase... there is no one up and coming from the edges to replace us. At worst, we have near peers chasing our heels in various areas. Speaking only for myself as an American, I'm OK with others chasing us.
Would say not yet, but CORRECTION is need to move on, otherwise...
@@markpukey8 just wait for another 10-15 years, then, we'll see..
Everybody knows that USA is an empire in decline, so yes, it has peaked!😊
What’s in the balloon ? Could Us government show us? Why keep hiding these debris?
They won't ever reveal the truth to avoid admitting their embarassment and stupidity. Perhaps they'll reveal in 50 years, that is about the average time they declassify documents especiall documents that shows their sins.
If China is in such a terrible shape economically and politically, why worry about China's rise?
Exactly!
At this point it is about an upcoming conflict. Limit chinas capabilities so they cannot wage war on Taiwan.
Same reason USA repeat needing to remind self, USA is a Democracy and not a Federal Republic... oh, backward.
@@DontUputThatEvilOnMe Just ask this question: who is pushing China to wage war on Taiwan?
Schroedingers China: perpetually on the brink of collapse, yet a rising threat.
"People throw rocks at things that shine." Isn't that how the song goes?
Great debate as always. Is just very sad that at the time of my comment it has only 47k views and only a few hundred comments. Most people are uninterested in deep thoughts and debates. Keep up the great work guys.
Should the next debate be : Has US’s Power Peaked?
Bank savings of Chinese citizens increased more than 30% in the end of 2022 compared with 2021 .
How much the average US citizens saved in 2022 ? It seems that most of the savings go to the US Military Industrial
Complex & the Pelosi family .
Lol , such a weak bot
USA need not debate but correction to move forward.
Chinese save because they are scared .this is what people do when people see too much risk which slows the economy. 2022 has not been a fun year of .many businesses wne under . I mean I live in China, no one is happy about saving and also losing investments too. China is recovering from the pandemic and I'm not sure yet if they will or not .idk. but the economic climate is scary right now
China’s debt to gdp ratio: 300%. Doesn’t it make you wonder what the real debt to gdp ratio is? Lol
Are you sure Mike is not Gordon Chang? haha
could be brother in arm if not birth...
Repeatedly demonstrated in opinion polling, the Taiwanese people are far less concerned about war than Americans. Michael Beckley's argument of China being an irrational warmonger does not hold water.
It would have been incredibly great for you to have Peter Zeihan with Ian and Michael on your show…
Zeihan isn't an expert on much except demographics.
@@budawang77 A fact: Zeihan predicted in 2014 that Russia would invade Ukraine 2014. Well, that prediction came true.
@@budawang77ziehan only talks in two things? Geography of the nation and the demographics of the nation! That’s it..
Zeihan is not a China expert at all. When he talks about China, he gets even basic facts wrong.
Zeihan doesnt know anything, hes just a far left puppet.
I wonder if the Chinese government has truly abandoned their Marxist ideals? To listen to both debaters one would think the nation in question only has capitalist principles.
What if economic growth for the sake of growth isn’t the goal? Is it possible that they are using this period of growth to modernize in order to move toward a more Marxist society?
I feel as if this conversation is simulate to judging Native American pre colonial era nations by European standards. GDP has always been a horrible metric, and it isn’t the only way to judge what matters in a society.
It’s a fascist country. Not communist
Great work, thanks to all!
So said from the Native American of the White Eyes....
@@chriswong9158 So said the Tibetans and Uyghurs of the forked Hanren tongue.
What a Professional Debate Show! Subscribed...
Great job, both sides are very articulative. The question and answer how China will go about in the future can be projected from her long history but rarely get enough attention so far.
China see the 1,000 years from now, USA see what for lunch tomorrow.
@@chriswong9158so why did China support losing Russia
@@JameBlack Russia is winning. Ukraine has no hope of pushing Russia back. So we have to completely different perspectives. Who is right? This is already apparent to those paying attention and will be apparent eventually to those that consume mainly Anglo Saxon media, which I believe, is your folly.
@@JameBlack U know the answer, dont you?
@@chriswong9158 China sees 1,000 years into its future by looking 1,000 years into its past. China is on an endless feedback loop. If one knows Chinese history one can see into China's future. I think it was the great Chinese philosopher Emmet Kelly who said something to the effect "if one knows one's enemy and knows oneself one need not fear the outcome of a hundred battles." Some Americans understand China, and therefore know their enemy.
Really good debate! The moderator is really good too.
Western arguments for China´s demise have been articulated for several years. The only changes that the last few years have brought to light have been that China is now the largest trading partner of most of the world and that the technology war is quickly becoming a war that China has won. China is patient beyond any Western speculation. Taiwan will only become an existential issue if the US actually provokes a coup for Taiwan independence. The Taiwanese are decidedly pro staus quo for good reason. Taiwan will not become a proxy for US hegemony. No one can blame them. Taiwan knows that a war in Taiwan will reduce Taiwan to a pile of rubble. Taiwan will instead continue their stays quo posture until China has overtaken the US on every single criteria for hegemony. China will in fact become the first non-hegemonic super power. China´s concept of hegemony is being the center for economic development and Trade. China will not build another GREAT WALL OF CHINA. But it will create a world connectivity network for cultural, economic interchange. China´s growth also will mean that THE UNITED NATIONS will become the political center for peaceful cooperation.
One thing that didn't get enough emphasis is how the evolution of the US-China relation will impact the Chinese trajectory. There has been talk about the chips ban but not much discussion on what is coming next with regards to future efforts by the US and its key allies to contain China and the potential impact.
Only time will tell.
@@medeliworld Yes, but since all of this is forecasting its a question worth pondering.
@@CuriousPersonUSA That's what analyst do which is wrong most of the time. The reality is the variables change all the time. Beckley has been predicting the collapse of China for the past decade.
Ian used to be negative on China but switched to positive after he made the wrong prediction on China's COVID policy.
@@CuriousPersonUSA And Russia and Middle East they can spread US thin .
On question of China Trajectory: Containing China is like boiling water and trying to stop the steam from out of pot. 1980's Deng Xiaoping was ask, if China let thousands of their young educated to study aboard, would you fear they not return. Xiaoping reply, if one in a thousand return, it will be a success. With the "Anti-Chinese" calling in the western world and restriction of opportunity in USA, many have started to return, as US citizen moving from Blue states to Red states. Good sample: How did China get it's own Nuclear Bomb, by a Taiwan Nationalist order back to China by USA.
Well done. Love a spirited, well argued, and intelligent debate. I think Michael made some excellent points indicating that the foundation of "the great Chinese rise" has some major cracks, but Ian was right in stating that the topic was "has China peaked?" It's very plausible that it hasn't. Excellent work, gentlemen. 👏👏👏
Throughout the Cold War the US was closer to the USSR and Red China than they were to each other; America masterfully built up China against the USSR, which could not even feed itself. In 2022 China and Russia became geostrategic partners and overagainst America. Lo and behold, it was suddenly discovered that China was in irrevocable decline.
China & Rusia💪🏭🛣️🛤️🍜🥢🍷☕🎂🍹🍴🥰
Bremer's company is inversted in China. He skates by the fact that Western in investors in China will sed their investments (dependent on no laws but on the CCP's whims) confiscated if it has a conflict with the US, Japan, Taiwan, the Philippines, etc., etc.
Wouldn't
Must not be very important business if Biden let him keep his US citizenship
That applies to investments in the US as well.
God bless you... So far, no western investor in area of China have fail. More to the point, Hong Kong, Macao, Hainan are seeing a up tick after three years from western investor. There is a wish to turn USD$$ into other trading currency.
@@medeliworld That is nonsensical: foreign investors will not see their investments seized if China attacks one of our allies, except that CCP kleptocrats, like the kleptocratic Putinists invading Ukraine, may see their stolen money frozen if they attack Taiwan or Japan or the Philippines or South Korea or another of our allies--- as the CCP clearly plans.
Amazing debate
with certain jobs you need certain requirements to see things from their lens even though it might be wrong
well put.
No joke: Look for the Wapo article last year on the recently retired Marine Corps Major who was trying to push back against the War with China momentum within the Pentagon while he was posted there...basically, he was saying that there absolutely will be war since everyone believes in it so the thinking is to get them now before they get even stronger!
China did not use its security forces to stop the Hong Kong rioters. That was done by the Hong Kong police, who are Hong Kongers themselves, supported by roughly half of all Hong Kongers. Not once did mainland China send their troops to fight the Hong Kong rioters, despite the rioters' deadly violence.
Show the visual version for God's sake.
That's just the "Noo Yawk Jew" style of discourse...may be "shrill" to some but not uncommon around The Big Apple.
Interesting debate, but Michael Beckley said something like people don't want their kids live in China, that's a bit desperate to make a point. He also brought up some data about a large young population in rural area in china with low IQ and unemployable, which was never heard of, at least questionable
Um. Michael is correct there. Only 30% of chinas workforce has had even one day of high school.
@@mangonut That is totally wrong - by 2019, about 60% of the total population is either high school or above. Mike is a joke.
@@songlining LOL. the 30% is from the CCP’s own website. 😂
@@mangonut In China, about 60% of young people will go to high school currently. More than 10 million graduate from high school in recent these years.
That's totally bullsshheett
He might read too much Epoch Times
Michael is unfairly negative on all things China
He should start saving the the homeless .
Did I miss the audience voting? Who won this round? Did Ian keep his streak going? I feel slightly cheated right now.
He probably won.
@@zhoubaidinh403 Nah Ian got rekt lol
@@Monkehrawrrr
Did you simply not hear the debate or are you not turning your brain on?
Not sure about who won but my vote is for Ian (pro-China stance)
He seems more researched and more understanding.
@@Monkehrawrrr Nah, Ian tore that other fellow a new rectum.
Ian says China largely has AI parity. That seems a bit funky to me, since China has no advanced chip making capacity, and no ability to import them either. ChatGPT and other AI models are trained using a huge number of the latest graphics cards, which is not something China can make at all, or even buy.
Ai is not made from hardware alone it can be done in software where china has so many high end developers that will tell story about china space station when the USA throws China out of iss what happens now same way for chips to china will find a way what I like about Chinese is their will power and will not give up easily
You ignore a fact that the Western world only have advantages in advanced chips. These advanced chips account for a very small part of the chips market. cars, and most of the electronics do not need to use advanced chips but very regular chips. These applications usually use chips of which size are above 10 µm. Unfortunately, China does not need to import these chips because they can produce by themselves. Chip is about the computation capability. So if the size of the chips doesn't matter, they don't need very high-end chips to achieve AI. So, in the Chip competition, America and the West will lose a huge market aka Chine while China will lose advanced Chips but how much the effact it will cause on China( Unknown yet, very likely smaller than the West's lost).
@@mylife70777 Training cutting edge AI requires hardware, huge amounts of it.
@@zerow945 I am referring to AI specifically, training it does benefit from the most advanced chips.
The same applies to super computers, they require the latest and most advanced chips.
@@mylife70777 I agree though, China can innovate its way to the top. I have no faith the ccp can lead such innovation though, and they are unfortunately in control of so much in China.
Great and deep argumentations
Excellent debate and production. Well done.
The US government clearly sides with Mr. Beckley. Hence the urgent need of "containment" and the talk of harsh sanctions.
Maybe not completely in line wit the "Free market" idea, but who cares.
I think it was a Japanese admiral who stated that it was a mistake to attack Hawaii and thus waking a sleeping giant.
So one can wonder if bullying 1.4 Billion people is a wise course of action. Not to mention a few billion of other people who are not directly in the American fan club.
I'm afraid China will teach the US a lesson for what they see as unfair imposed events. It will take some time, but when you look (without American glasses) to the world scene you see it happen. And the Chinese are not in a hurry. The fun part is that it could be done without a single missile when played smart.
Interesting times...
@@davidmoss2576Nothing puts a smile on my face like seeing delusional comments like this lol.
@@davidmoss2576 You said "taking on all of NATO", now you're moving the goal waaay back to only providing support and training. The cope is real lmfao.
@@davidmoss2576 Ukraine with NATO support is not the same thing as all of NATO itself. Not even close in any way, shape or form. If you need such an obvious fact explained to you it only proves what I already said, you're delusional.
@@davidmoss2576 You keep telling yourself that bud.
@@davidmoss2576 All I said was that you amuse me, and you continue to deliver on that front. 🤣
Have a nice night.
I grew up in Taiwan. Had my college education in Taiwan. I have many love ones in Taiwan. I care a lot more about people in Taiwan than any of these talking heads in the US. Let me say this I DO NOT want US to meddle with the relationship across the taiwan strait. I dare say the Chinese government in the mainland has no interest in invading Taiwan. Xi has many more urgent business to take care of in the mainland. Just butt out of taiwan, USA. Taiwan people will be happily doing business with the mainland. At some point, maybe a long time from now, the two sides will be basically operating in similar ways. Unification will come naturally.
Face it USA has been and is the biggest bully the world has ever seen. Just stay the hell out of our affairs.
Fake Taiwanese,probably a 50centsvarmy😂
Agree. These tricks Western playing are nothing new for Chinese.
Well said!
@@waynezw People in China and Taiwan are not stupid. Millions of Taiwanese live and work in China and vice versa. The Ukraine conflict is a conspiracy initiated by the MIC with the aim of destabilizing the stable relationship between Taiwan and mainland China. In fact even the current Taiwan government has no intention of declaring independence. Rather it's the collective West which is fighting to Taiwan independence.
Beckley is essentially an anti-China analyst just like Gordon Zhang and Zeihan.
Like you, there are Taiwanese whom now resident in China mainland as well them having families in Taiwan.
Let there be peace and the Taiwanese know and vote for what best for their families and not of USA interest.
Very good all. Thank you
I think China has some difficult issues to overcome, but considering the explosive and sustained economic growth they’ve had, i doubt they will make mistakes massive enough to undo all the progress they’ve made. China’s growth has been extremely impressive, and i think they are more likely to work through these challenges than to crack and break under their weight.
Yeah, they won't break, but if they are denied access to Western technology, then the Chinese economy will certainly stagnate. They have one more decade to grow before the demographic crisis starts to bite hard. Any growth in productivity after that will only be washed away by loss in consumption.
This guy like Gordon Chiang had been predicting most of the negativity regarding China for a long time!
a typical mistake on prediction is called linear thinking
China's lower birth rate is actually exactly what China needs. In the years to come , with AI, robotics, automations etc , there will be less need for human labour and less problems finding jobs for its youths. India will face human history's greatest disasters as even their current main jobs like software and call centres will be history.
Factories are automated etc
@@pahatpahat9566, is Michael Beckley half Asian from his picture? Like Gordon Chiang, Michael seems cut from the same cloth.
Ian sounds like a Stooge for the CCP
Why hate on what you don’t understand?
I am pro china and from my view , Ian is a American propagandist ànd I have started losing interest in his views on china
If you think Ian is a stooge, you've been in an echo chamber for far too long.
I would say China has not yet peaked. It’s in a period of consolidation, poising for the next expansion phase with entirely new geopolitical and technological background !
With a workforce half its size in 2050
@@Myanmartiger921 and a booming 5G ai-driven industry as well, something you don't and will never have.
@@Myanmartiger921 probably by thenChina would have surpassed the US as the number one choice for emigrants
@@Myanmartiger921 The whole white race group is in decline , the EU and the US . The numbers of black Americans however escalate. A few more decades and black Americans will rule .
@@martinsnow4611 5G has been around for 4-5 years now. It hasn't been the big driver of growth people hoped for, certainly not like 3G and 4G was.
Well presented...😂👍
The interviewer kept interrupting the guy saying China hasn't peaked because he was beating the other guy senseless, LMAO.
It's Democracy at play...
Yep -- I'd noticed that, too...the so-called moderator is more like a teevee game show host!
Why no video?
One word explains China has undeniably peaked and bound to fall no matter how much their Govt kick the can down the road: bonds.
Just in today, a faster than expected q1 growth of 4.5%. I don’t think China is done kicking just yet.
@@benjaminbecker9849 and where do you think they plucked that number from? You think it’s possible to determine a GDP growth of a country with 1.4B people in less than a month?
The correct question should be how much longer the US can stay as a superpower?
Exactly. China has been ascendant for the past 30 years, while the US reached the peak of its own Superpower 30 years ago when the USSR collapsed. We literally just concluded what was called by historians "the American century." The US was the most powerful country in all of human history. Now the US is doing whatever it has to not to be reduced as a Superpower, and that means preventing China from rising any further. China has not peaked, it has barely touched the height of its potential. China is still a developing country that has been around for thousands of years. It's not going anywhere. The US on the other hand has nowhere to go but down, or at the very least maintain its Superpower, which it clearly is not able to do. The US is coming down from its peak of power, and as an old proverb goes, an animal walking wounded is dangerous.
There always be a super power they just ain’t true only 1 I have China u have Russia. But are tell u this. Killing your own men invading others land organ harvesting. Concentration camps. Coronavirus bio weapons. Both have parts of there countries have poor parts they don’t give a toot bout. While chinas market may be appealing to some at this time of cost of living people will get and do what they need to but when said and done the world will pick the rite side. Witch ain’t China or Russia.
America’s superpowers has not even begun…. It begins at the end of globalization. These past 70 years have been decades of American sacrifice.
Your should also asked yourself is American powers peak?
IMHO, we've been going downhill for at least 2 decades
No, but may need correction right now.
Americas power peaked circa de. 1945 when we conducted half the worlds manufacturing and were the only power with nuclear weapons. In 1945 GDP Americas economy was larger than the Soviet, Japanese, German, British and Italian empires combined.
@@garrettcochran9169 and America lost it's way in 1960's for "America will never be destroyed from the outside. If we lose our freedoms it will be because we have destroyed ourselves from within" - Abraham Lincoln.
How about now?
Chinas exceptional rise were cramp within 2 generations! It took the US 200 years and Britain 7 generations to achieve the kind of industrial supremacy! And when that kind of breakneck growth? You realize that china can only do it once! And there’s no way of them replicating it in the near future. This decade might be chinas last decade of meaningful economic growth, after that they might be the next Japan..
If China needs to grow only for another 15 years, its economic power will be 5 times of Japan. Every discussion is just another speculation, the truth will shine by 2030 😎☮️
It is ludicrous talking about Chinese military expansion when US has seven hundred military bases globally, surrounding China? Mr. Beckley also ignores the BRI and infrastructure investments around the world and in China bearing fruits already; also the wisdom of CCP leadership. History has demonstrated China's ability to prosper and dominate economically and peacefully. Meanwhile, US in on borrowed money--on trillions on our future generations, on aging crumbling infrastructure; and deeply divided social classes, homelessness, starving people. Indeed the US 'exceptionalism' has peaked, simply printing money so propup its economy is not sustainable.
Well said...
Peaked? It’s not even the end of the beginning. It will be at least several centuries of prosperity.
nope. its all downhill from here
@@007kingifrit in your dreams
You’re right. The US will have several centuries of prosperity
Sure, a nation with a declining population is going to prosper.
Did a 1,000 years, can still do another 2,000 years...
good debate
Too many commercials
Yeah I tried to listen to this while falling asleep but had to keep getting up to skip them.
Beckley told American parents if their children would go to China and live and work there. Recent news state that Chinese embassy in America is flooded with Visa requests with Americans wishing to go to China. More and more American CZcamsrs are vlogging in China.
As I said before, Beckley became an anti-China basher after he was kicked out of China for some reasons. His analysis is typical of cherry picking his data while ignoring the ability of the Chinese government to adjust rapidly according to the real world. The covid opening and the Ukraine war are two good examples, which Beckley failed to credit the Chinese government.
China welcome all worldwide to their sandbox, just don't bring your baggage's along, for they know what is a women.
Americans travel outside of America for experience and curiosity, not out of necessity. Also, China is only one of the few Asian countries Americans travel to, they like to travel to South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan as well. China is still only a developing country with a few developed cities. If you ask an American if their child wanted to live in China. Most of their parents will give the same response.. “Why?” It’s because most Americans know that China is not a modernized country yet and on top of that, it’s also a communist country controlled by government and military power.
@@christophervang9308 Why do Americans Love Living in China?
czcams.com/video/O_5y_TYupmM/video.html
@@christophervang9308 Clearly you've been living in a cave and knew nothing about young Americans who are pro China.
Americans share their experiences about life in China
czcams.com/video/UrVFLbRByC4/video.html
@@christophervang9308 China has 155 cities with more than a million people, and they are brand new cities that makes the US major cities like third world cities. They have the most developed infrastructures - rails, HSRs, hydroelectric dams, bridges, tunnels, roads, highways, ports, airports, Admin buildings, telecom/optic cables, internet, etc.. You are still thinking of the 1970s to 1990s China.
Sounds like one of the speakers was thinking with his head while the other just went with his heart. Go figure who makes better sense.
When many outsiders are worrying Taiwan security, Twain’s military service time is just nine months, just extended from 4 to 9 and many Taiwan people don’t support such “long” service !
That was true, but, with the most recent threats from China, their "attitude" has changed quite a bit now. Many Taiwanese, realizing an attempted invasion may really happen, are volunteering now. They make not wish to "fight", but they will defend their country. And, they are not bad at it, either. Without the current direct threat they are under, you would be right.
@@dwanemarsh4378 I don't think regular Taiwanese will want to defend it. First, they can't last a single day by themselves, unless making it a proxy war between China and the US (just like Ukraine now), but then, do you think Taiwanese are stupid enough to invite 2 people to fight in their own home? Second, Asians value collectivism more than the Westerns. If you are not Asian, you won't understand that.
The Taiwanese may have become more vocally determined to establish independence, but they have not put money and manpower into defense. Their draftees should be serving 2 years to get serious training, and they should be spending 3%+ of GDP on defense.
You won't be saying this if you could read the Taiwanese Media and social sites. Vast Majority of them do not want conflict with China. Nor do they want independence which they know will be war. And not mentioning that Taiwan's economy is very, very tied to that of the mainland. The DPP may not survive the next presidential election cause the question that should be asked is.. Has its policies made Taiwan Safer? Richer? It's a big NO to both.
It would not matter if they spent 100% of their GDP on defense. The Republic of China is a very small landmass next to a very large and signicantly more powerful landmass. If China wanted to, the Republic of China would not exist. Luckily for the Republic of China, China has no intention of wiping the Republic of China from the face of the planet. China is committed to the peaceful reunification of the Republic of China with China, as per the long established international agreement which all the worlds powers have long agreed to. If however, the Republic of China is once again turned into a weapon to be used against China, as it was used by the Japenese to wreck utter devestation and misery during WW2, then all bets will be off.
@@awdrpepper China can't deploy their entire military to the island, there are limited areas that can support a landing and making the assault more costly leads to deterrence and time for a more equitable negotiation. This has been Singapore's policy when confronted by Malaysia and Indonesia and has worked for 50+ years.
If they were truly serious about defense Taiwan is clearly capable of developing atomic weapons with delivery systems capable of hitting the mainland.
As for peaceful reunification, China has never said they were committed to peaceful reunification. Instead they have clearly said while they prefer a peaceful reunification, they reserve the right to a military solution.
The US & Japan may well want to use Taiwan as a lever against China, but by arming themselves adequately Taiwan would create options and lesson dependence on foreign powers.
@@n.c9653 Ukraine didn't spend money on defense for decades because they didn't want conflict with Russia. They believed foreign powers would defend them.
What happened?
Would Taiwan be richer and safer as an occupied province of the mainland? How is Hong Kong's prosperity lately?
A place like Taiwan spends money on defense as a deterrent. That's why Singapore spends so much on defense and everyone serves in the defense forces. Even the KMT should want to strengthen defense, if only to improve their negotiation position.
@@christophermcanally1246 China does not need to deploy their entire military to the island..... They could erase the Republic of China from existence, without resorting to nuclear weapons, or an invasion. They could simply employ the method used by the United States in its wars against Japan, Germany, Korea and Vietnam.
You are entirely wrong that China has not committed to peaceful re-unification with the Republic of China. In fact, they have been open to discussion with the Republic of China over what 're-unification' even looks like.
In August last year, the PRC released a White Paper titled, "The Taiwan Question and China's Reunification in the New Era" - one week after Nancy Pelosi's provocative visit to the Republic of China. . Below is some exerpts from this release.
...
"We are one China, and Taiwan is part of China. This is an indisputable fact supported by history and the law. Taiwan has never been a state; its status as part of China is unalterable."
"To realize peaceful reunification, we must acknowledge that the mainland and Taiwan have their own distinct social systems and ideologies. The 'one country, two systems' principle is the most inclusive solution to this problem. It is an approach that is grounded in democratic principles, demonstrates good will, seeks peaceful resolution of the Taiwan question, and delivers mutual benefit. The differences in social system are neither an obstacle to reunification nor a justification for secessionism"
"We are ready to create vast space for peaceful reunification; but we will leave no room for separatist activities in any form."
"We will work with the greatest sincerity and exert our utmost efforts to achieve peaceful reunification. But we will not renounce the use of force, and we reserve the option of taking all necessary measures. This is to guard against external interference and all separatist activities. In no way does it target our fellow Chinese in Taiwan. Use of force would be the last resort taken under compelling circumstances,"
...
In china, about ten millions of students enrolled in college every year in recent years, but only 8 to 9 million babies born last year.
The more important question is can US decline be managed as to not cause unnecessary war and suffering in the coming decade.
NOT YET .
Look at how China uses technology to improve production, then you know China will only get better. China has overpopulation problem so it's okay to have more people leaving China. In case if you don't know how China is using technology, just search the news about Tianjin port for example.
U.S is the most powerful country in the world, but in term of nation.
America is actually very weak compared to China, due to the fact that americans are too diverse and divided.
For example, if you ask what is "American"? To most americans.
You will get millions of different answers.
But if you ask what is "Chinese" to most Chinese. They will either say "i speak Chinese" or "ethnically "Chinese" or just "don't know nor do i care"
@@Commievn US's problem is that MIC and big pharma are greedy, they don't let the government to focus on it's own development. 700 billions spent on military every year, it makes no sense.
@@Commievn Trick question; there's no such thing as a Chinese ethnicity; only mainland East Asian ethnicities that are forced to accept their false Chinese identity--even if they have little to no direct ancestral connection to the northern Han plains, Beijing especially--just ask the Uyghurs or Tibetans...
Or even for that fact, Hong Kongers.
@@Commievn the things you are saying are Americans weakness is actually their overall strength. Thinking that china's over centralized state dictating to private companies that they have to act in china's interest as opposed to America's free market approach...well we all know how this ends (Soviet union). America has had like what 3-4 straight failed presidencies, and still enter each new decade ahead of where they were last. Demographics, technology, private investment, etc.. all favor US long term.
China doesn't have an over population problem, it has an aging population problem. Too many non-earners supported by too few earners. Earners leaving makes the problem worse.
Mr. Beckley always crushes it
God bless you.. Time to Re-Elect Joe Biden for US President 2024. With Democracy under USA control, world at peace.
@@chriswong9158 Are you up voting your own posts? That's shameful.
Er…he did not.
The moderator interrupts Bremer way too much, with questions that are long-winded, and he doesn't really let things play out but keeps rushing to the next question just to check things off.
Yes this is a debate and there's not much time for what are actually very complex issues -- sure -- but still...this is a bit of a waste of two very articulate and thoughtful people to just move 'em along as soon as things get interesting (which is to say, Bremer's counter-arguments; people have been saying "China will fail" or "China has peaked" since literally The Nineties).
Why is Ian shouting?
China's GDP is expected to grow 5.2% this year. It's not even close to peaking
CCP are pathological Liars, who in their right mind would believe CCP statistics
65% urbanization rate and rising, increase retirement age, allow more skilled workers from Southeast Asia, Latin America, Middle East, trade with Africa and allow remote controlled robots from Africa.
I think you're on the money, and that's how all the economies of SE Asia think as well. China's projected growth for this year is 5.2% based on IMF projections. That's higher than any other major economy except India's (which is stellar). Goldman Sachs projects more than 6% for Chinese growth. Currently, Chinese trade with RCEP countries is only starting to take off due to the ending of its own unreasonably strict COVID-19 policies. Contrary to a lot of the claims by boffins in the Western media that the Belt & Road Initiative is grinding to a halt, it is actually picking up pace in this part of the world. The Jakarta-Bandung high speed rail has been completed by the Chinese, and they are now competing with the Japanese to extend the rail to Semarang. Thailand has signed up to connecting its own planned high speed rail (also to be built by the Chinese) with the China-Laos high speed rail. The Malaysians continue with the east coast rail line (after renegotiating its terms with China) and have now even started talking about reviving the high speed rail linking Singapore-KL-Bangkok (to be built by China, of course). In Singapore, many of the subway lines are being built by the Chinese, simply because they have the best tunneling technology in the world. And I haven't even started on listing the on-going and planned infrastructure projects in the ME, Africa, South America and the Pacific Islands. Even Japan, which has grown more and more hostile to China in recent months, has seen its trade numbers hit record highs with that country; the USA posted a record deficit in 2022 with China of over $400 bn. The Chinese filed more patents in 2022 than any other country; Chinese peer reviewed articles in science journals have now exceeded any other country. The Chinese lead in battery technology, 5G and 6G patents, civilian use drone technology, hypersonic flight technology, the solar energy sector, electric cars, quantum communications technology, AI face-recognition technology, fintech, robotics - the list goes on. They have a declining population, but that can be compensated for by increased automation and mechanisation, as well as by improving productivity. Just 10 years ago, the Chinese only contributed 6% to the value of every iPhone they assembled. Today, Apple uses so many Chinese components in the iPhone 14 that the Chinese value contributed to each iPhone is estimated at between 23%-25%. The so-called off-shoring of manufacturing from China to India and Vietnam has contributed to the rise of trade between China and these 2 countries, because China supplies the more expensive components, which are then assembled in these countries. China still sits in the entre of world supply chains, and that's why 7 of the 10 busiest ports in the world are located there, and the 8th is HK. China does have a problem with the USA doing its best to deprive the Chinese of advanced chips, but China already is able to produce the mature-tech chips of 28 nm and above, and probably 14 nm as well. These chips account for 90% of industrial chips (including for weapons systems such as jets and missiles). It is estimated that the Chinese will only take 5-6 years to be able to build their own DUV machines, and about 10 years for their own EUV machines. Given the limit to which silicon chips technology can be developed due to Moore's law, these 5-10 years will not result in any significant progress on making more advanced chips in countries like S Korea and Taiwan (let alone the USA). So the Chinese will be able too catch up even on the silicon chips front. I am sure that we will see peak China one day. Just not today.
Maybe the better question is: Has US's power peaked?
no, i expect the U.S will annex canada in the next 30 years (atleast alberta) and as nato falls the U.S will grow more powerful as we maintain global influence but not global interests, meaning everyone needs to beg us for help
@@007kingifritAnother possibilty is a civil war. Unfortunately.
@@fredgassit5418 the U.S can fight a civil war and maintain global power simultaneously. it is literally that powerful where it doesn't matter, even if we retreated inward for 40 years we would just pop back out and reassert ourselves effortlessly
@@007kingifrit That I doubt. But hopefully we won't have to find out.
@@007kingifrit civil war is nasty. No country can maintain power while fighting one.
For a limited war involving Taiwan if that is possible. America may win more battles but will lose their world hegenmany position. The world would fall into multipolar situation.
The host kept interrupting Ian while providing cover for Michael Beckley is the current US-China relationship in a nutshell, its wishful thinking doing most of work while nobody cares about rational voices.
I have noticed too! Micheal's wishful thinking is so obvious that his opinions are of low value.
I am a Chinese American and travel to China often. I do not like what CCP did to Chinese people but I have many Chinese friends there and wish the best for Chinese people. My recommendation is if you have never been in China, do plan a trip to China and see China with your own eyes.
What is the ccp?
Make note, in Chinese history no other government was able to feed, house & educated the 1.2 billions mankind in just 10 year ever in history. We in USA of 235 millions could not stop the homeless, drugs, murders, hate, greed that cover America today. CCP issue permit to travel outside of China for Tours, Education, Work, Enterprise, etc... to some 300,000 plus yearly only because Western World limit their Visa permit to visit. CCP would love to send 5 million yearly Chinese to America today if not for US Visa. Why do you think "cousins" are coming to America via Mexico borders. Hey, beside have you smell the "anti-Chinese" in the air lately, if one get kill in America, don't blame CCP.
Please share with us more about what you witness in China with your own eyes the horrible things that the CCP did/is doing to the people
Don't need to go to China to hear their threats on the world stage
The people individually have been great, especially if you make friends prior to going. No one there seemed happy. Everyone bitched about the CCP when we spoke. I think the problem is the CCP was built on a foundation of corruption and deceit from the very beginning and they had to continue operating that way. The CCP functions a lot like the mafia
Paranoia is an illness.
Sorry, what a pathetic start and the how completely off points atltogether.
In China, the debt of Local Government Financing Vehicles：LGFV, an infrastructure investment company affiliated with local governments, is expanding. According to estimates by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), it is expected to reach the 100 trillion yuan (approximately 2,000 trillion yen) mark by 2027. The burden of taking a free ride on the government's ``tacit guarantee'' and expanding debt is now at risk of erupting in the wake of the housing recession.
Needless to say, local government officials lack business sense, advanced investment ability to manage risk, and consulting ability.
The goal is to achieve the goals set by the top leaders of the Chinese Communist Party.
It is commonplace for private companies to bribe opportunistic officials.
I worry about America Past Peak Power investing in its military as the guy likes to say at 23:32
23:10 yeah the maintenance of navy costs more than building it, so US power picked too then right? also that won’t be the case if you sell them to allied countries
True Allied Counties would not need or maintain what is forgotten... USA still have one buyer they can push to, Ukraine.
@@chriswong9158 what are you going on about? US sold GB shitty useless warships during WW2 and in return took many of their islands in pacific. you think word is a fantasy book?
@@rezzob That "GB" was pass, I am talking about present. It's Ukraine time to purchase shitty useless weapons from USA
God bless the U.S.A. friendship.
@@chriswong9158 maybe I misunderstood you. we agree on that, this is nothing short of money laundering
@@rezzob Well said... Have a nice week...
Looking back years from now, it will be obvious how ridiculous you guys sounded debating a topic supported by fake narratives without any facts. Have you guys stayed in China? Talking to regular folks? The Chinese government (not regime, that just shows your bias) enjoy the overwhelming support of the people. You guys runs a fine echo chamber.
Americans are paranoid uninformed people. The USA government wants it this way, so they don't interfere with actual policy. Sad thing is that they actually believe they have a say in the decisions of the country.
Michael lived in China for years
Why does the ccp censor the internet in China then? There are many examples of Chinese movies which are removed from the internet by the ccp... Must be they are too complimentary of the government. Not to mention the dissent they remove and sometimes charge people for. Or the books on 'xi jinping thought' they are adding into school curriculums.
And you speak of an echo chamber, classic.
@@mangonut then he wasted his time.
Who wants to their talkative vocal point superiority about only US winner it they can?
Invite Gordon Chang to help the tufts prof. Chang is more convincing. LOL.
Ian is exaggerating. His words have some truth. But like any socalled China experts who have not been to China or been there for only a short while, he only sees the surface. There is only a tiny fraction of the top talents who went to countries like US which is really unfriendly to immigration compared to the past. The issues are there, but there is still potential.
Propaganda galore 🫡🫡🫡
Has authoritarianism ever yielded long term growth and success throughout history?
Has China reached its peak? A weird question to answer . I love China and all,when I first came I just had a good time ,altho having many horrible experiences but if u are a western trying to answer that question, u have to take off your western hat .as an American ,it's easy to make money here ,there's a billion business ideas u can propose and are it work just because of population and your passport. Most westerners don't at all integrate with the people even very few learn Chinese and still don't understand them because unfortunately being wealthy makes u lose touch pretty easy . I've made alot of money and I remember at a tie getting caught into thinking everything is dirt cheap and making less excuses for poor Chinese then ,there was a time a lost the understanding of the value of dollar. Altho in general stuff is cheap here but altho China as a booming middle class unlike we've ever seen ,we still see millions of poor Chinese in conditions u wouldn't belive in a nation like this .
Because lack of transparency in government Anda also many time people since the culture is based on alot of superficially that is heavily adopted by the middle and upper class ,it can be hard to see ow much Chinese struggle. I'm not an economist but I've live in like a 4th of all the major cities and traveled to te other ,making so many friends because it can be easy to meet new people .I've had 2 different business partners and many low income friends. .in my opinion it doesn't look good and many of my friends who are all Chinese say the same . I'm in my 20s ,all my early 20 friends can imagine ever getting out of poverty I have 2 friends who have a masters And 1 with a PhD. And they are making a few thousand RMB a mouth ,not even middle class in shenzhen or Beijing. You have to be bringing in at 20,000 RMB to feel OK in these cities then spend half that on rent . I don't know any normal Chinese that's not in business that makes that kind of money ,that's nothing for us but for a Chinese it's like an unreal amount since most foreigners will be making atleast 5 times the average income of them but definitely more than that..
China spends way more than it get back ever .I used to believe what every one says that China always thinks long-term ..no offense but it's not true financially and it's not true culturally, because of the uncertainty of life in Chinese history ,Chinese are very short term and there decision making ( no offense) is more like people who come from poverty. As they but band-aids on things and think to fix later ,they buy cheat and perform moderately just so the problem will exist for another day so Chinese can waste alot of money .like many poorer people have a bad psychology of ( what my pockets look like today ) ,instead of what it can look like . This short-sightedness is prevalent from the bottom to the Top and it has alot to do with the fact that alot of this wealth is newly obtained and the management of it is bad . Just 40 years ago China was nothing like this ,the generation before me were on farms and their is a huge education gap from my generation and the last .it's hard to say alot of this stuff without sounding anti China but I'm really not . Just like us millennials in the states ,the wealth in China has not trickled down much into the pockets of the youth despite being many more times educated than their parents. People 50 plus are the ones buying in China and they are everywhere. The population imbalance is obvious and everyone knows it. The youth not only don't make the money to fill the financial needed to keep the show running but they don't have the same skill set as the one before .no one want to or can work with their hands in this generation. The only thing close is like cutting hair .alot of young guys like doing that. But also we know there not enough vacancy In the cities either .companies are greatly down sizing and companies closing down all the time was a thing even before the lock down ..China will be left with a few major companies to carry them and the only one I think with stand is like alibaba and tencent but the real-estate market will keep getting bailed out but I think they will continue to fail . Because people don't have money anymore and In China people are already hesitant to give there money to people anyway because of stuff like this already. Not to mention apparently being getting their money taken by government. Personal I've never experienced or heard of a personal story but one of my Chinese business buddies told me to be careful of it and take your my money out like almost 2 years ago now ...yea the population is shrinking fast and China is resource dependent on too many people like Germany and Japan which will always hold them back. And population and resources to expand are really the 2 ways to grow as a nation . China only grew fast because as the world's oldest empires they have always had many different people to put their hands to a task .China has assimilated Manu people groups under one nation but the lands part if China didn't come with many resources to use . It's a scientific fact ( altho China has shown to be exceptional) ,that a nation literally can't out grow its occupying area because available resources won't allow, like Japan, being now a stagnant and stable nation that unable to grow anymore because theirs no where to grow into
Michael Beckley's argument is fundamentally emotional. He wants to view China as an irrational warmonger, and he wants to argue that Americans feeling hostility towards China due to seeing negative headlines about China from American media is indicative of China's negative business environment. This is not based on the facts that foreign investment in China, while slowing in the latter part of their zero-covid implementation, has continued to grow even in 2022, and is experiencing a resurgence in 2023. It is overwhelmingly the case that the international free market continues to increase trade with China -- even more so had certain countries not coerced unilateral sanctions onto China.
Listening between the lines on China Update (particularly the Michael Pettis quotes) and Lei's Real Talk, I think that Michael Beckley is closer to correct.
Yes. Ian seems to believing lines fed to him by the CCP.
It's called echo chamber.
@@songlining Whereas you parrot Wumao nonsense.
You must also believe the 7 plus millions Ukrainians will ever go home. China civil war 1950, we never return, but our cousin after 1979 benefited from the fruit of the CCP relationship. Where US see sand, China see flower bed
@@chriswong9158 What do Ukrainian refugees have to do with this? There is a vast difference between loving your country and escaping a place that is awful even during peaceful times. Where Western governments see citizens, the CCP sees pawns and cannon fodder --- and stupid, duped suck-ups.
Now what?
Yes
There is a Cold War!
The "cold war" never ended with the USA military industries. It needs BUYERS
Yes they have peaked not to say they still aren't a major threat but there just on demographics and geography alone they are in deep deep trouble they also have a bank and real estate bubble they was artificially kept inflated china will not be the same as we know it in 10yrs
People have to live in China to know the truth?
I think they could've spent more time defining what Power is, the same way that Ian was trying to define what peaked means. Without that the debate gets very semantic. GDP continue to grow albeit not as fast as before, therefore != peaked (per Ian). But at the same time, GDP growth != power per se, because unlike GDP growth, power is zero sum.
I would define power as a nation's ability to achieve its strategic goals, which for china would be (imo):
1. Reunify with Taiwan
2. Technological supremacy
3. Regional hegemony
I personally would say that at present achieving any of these seem less favorable as time passes, therefore China's power has peaked
You assume that the GDP reported by Beijing is correct. The Chinese leaders have been quoted as admitting that the reported numbers are “man-made”because Beijing just takes the numbers sent to them by the provincial leadership that have ample reasons to exaggerate.
Study using the amount of lights seen from space done by a University of Chicago economist estimates that the GDP numbers are inflated by as much as 60%! Both the IMF and the World Bank simply report the numbers given to them by Beijing and so we cannot rely on the numbers published by them either. The most realistic GDP number for the PRC appear to be around $12 trillion.
This obviously puts a different face to a lot of concerning statistics such as debt to GDP figures and defense expenditure as a per of the GDP.
i don't think so. Peak has a tone of finality to it. The CHinese are long-time thinkers. they will bid their time for a hundred years and a hundred more if necessary. If you ask them "what effects did the French revolutionary war had on history", they will say "it is too soon to tell."
They are just at the beginning of their rise. They will eventually master chips manufacturing, AI, Quantum Computers, etc... and increase trade with every country all over the world.
@@rabbitazteca23 supposed long term thinkers couldn't see that the great leap forward and zero COVID were terrible ideas? China playing 6D chess is so meme level
@@anthonydhan again, even is it is nowhere near what's claimed, as long as it is increasing, it has not peaked per Ian's argument
@@PW060284 Ian doesn’t have any facts to back up his belief in claims of growth by Beijing. He continues to assume that the economic data claimed by Beijing has any validity. Reports of idle ports, plunging container rates, and mass exodus of labor out of the cities involved in exports are all indications of cratering economic activity since Q4 of 2022. This is also reflected in plunging imports from China from neighboring countries like South Korea. South Korea’s exports to China are down significantly.
So it is more likely that the PRC is entering a deep recession for 2023. Any growth this year is probably overly optimistic. We know that the middle class is saddled with a lot of debt from the real estate bubble. This is going to depress domestic consumption and so will not compensate for loss of export business from the US. Finally plunging birth rate also means reduction in number of new consumers entering the economy. Thus we could be seeing the beginning of a deflationary cycle similar to what Japan has suffered for the last 25 years. That is basically zero growth for more than two decades!
You can tell Michael had a far easier time making his points. It's much easier to land your shots when it's true.
They both did well and to be honest some of Michael’s points is really stretching the truth.
B.S. The so-called moderator kept interrupting Ian and moving on to another question on top of giving more time for Mikey to speak.
No problem; it is very good for Westerners to be complacent!
@@davidchou1675 So true, I am astonded about what I am hearing.
People are so stupid, "is China's power peaked" lol China is still a developing country with a per capita GDP 1/6 of the US, anyone thinks a developing country can be "peaked" is delusional.... and kinda racist, the only reason why western countries and Japan became developed first is because they looted most of the world, hence why everyone else is still just playing catch up, but eventually, every country will become a developed country, its not western countries are "in decline", its just other countries will develop so in comparison western countries will gradually lose more and more dominance.
Well, One is real expert in China's affair while the another is purely political propaganda🤣
Interesting to see Ian arguing the other side. Seems the two can not even agree on basic facts
He kept pointing out that this debate was "Has China Peaked" and not "will China be the next superpower". Because he's been clear that he doesn't see them being the next superpower. Just continuing growth for a while. Not sure I agree, but I don't think he actually flipped his normal point of view.
@@markpukey8 Well I would say it was quite surprising to see Ian take a more realist stance for a change. Him closing with a sneer for the likes of Gordon chang and company and their perpetual doomsday scenario for China for the past 20 years is well placed in his statement about living in the present instead of the wishful thinking realm. And boy there's a huge market in the West for the prophets of doom types.
What Xi does, and they didn't address this, really depends on what the American does...right now they are building up to get Xi to do a Putin on Taiwan.
@@zhoubaidinh403 Yeah, the Taiwan playbook is playing up the exact same way as the buildup to the Ukrainian war. The West loves to sing the Russian aggression and leave out the story of the road to the Donbass war after 2014. In a similar fashion, the Taiwan issue narrative is leaving out some important parts that deserve more scrutiny. aspects
Part of having confidence in your own arguments is by steel manning (as opposed to straw manning) the other side's arguments first, then tearing that down
PEAKed? Is this a question? China is still growing, China's GDP per capital is just above 10000 dollars, so much potential to grow, come on
Fighting yesterdays battles?
'Most' 'economic thinking' is 'short run' and 'redundant'? 'It' ignores the 'supply side'?
'Growth' {and 'civilisation'} depends upon 'cheap' F.F. - those so called 'halcyon days' are 'over'. ?
"The crisis now unfolding, however, is entirely different to the 1970s in one crucial respect… The 1970s crisis was largely artificial. When all is said and done, the oil shock was nothing more than the emerging OPEC cartel asserting its newfound leverage following the peak of continental US oil production. There was no shortage of oil any more than the three-day-week had been caused by coal shortages. What they did, perhaps, give us a glimpse of was what might happen in the event that our economies depleted our fossil fuel reserves before we had found a more versatile and energy-dense alternative. . . . That system has been on the life-support of quantitative easing and near zero interest rates ever since. Indeed, so perilous a state has the system been in since 2008, it was essential that the people who claim to be our leaders avoid doing anything so foolish as to lockdown the economy or launch an undeclared economic war on one of the world’s biggest commodity exporters . . .
And this is why the crisis we are beginning to experience will make the 1970s look like a golden age of peace and tranquility. . . . The sad reality though, is that our leaders - at least within the western empire - have bought into a vision of the future which cannot work without some new and yet-to-be-discovered high-density energy source (which rules out all of the so-called green technologies whose main purpose is to concentrate relatively weak and diffuse energy sources). . . . Even as we struggle to reimagine the 1970s in an attempt to understand the current situation, the only people on Earth today who can even begin to imagine the economic and social horrors that await western populations are the survivors of the 1980s famine in Ethiopia, the hyperinflation in 1990s Zimbabwe, or, ironically, the Russians who survived the collapse of the Soviet Union."
consciousnessofsheep.co.uk/2022/07/01/bigger-than-you-can-imagine/
and this time, thanks to Joe Biden war, China just sign up for long term, cheap energy and raw material for the next 20 years for manufacturing. With China friendship in developing Nations in So. America, Africa, Middle East, So Asia. China, India, So. Africa, Brazil and Russia aka BRICS are in position for the future, thanks to US American 2020 voters
Where does Michael get his data? Majority of Chinese people don't use credit card, they use mobile payment. So why's the increase in credit card debt relevant?
So you don't understand what a metaphor is?
@@Rjsjrjsjrjsj the concept of mobile payment in China is equivalent to a debit card, how is that a metaphor of credit card?
@@jackoh5134 He never said anything about Chinese using credit cards. His statement was a metaphor. You're not that bright, are you?
Ian Bremmer has the correct intuition about China. Without deeply analysing the Chinese civilization, even a person of no knowledge of China, knows that it is an enduring civilization. It has left the Egyptian, the Greek, the Roman civilizations behind and is presently still relevant to 1.4 billion people in the rest of our world. China has re-invented itself many times with a Confusian/buddhist core that is able to recognize best practices and meritocracy in governance. China is not unique in this sense. Singapore can be said to sprout out of the same core. China tends to be isolationist in its worse historical tendencies and territorially centrist. This means that to think that China will follow a Western pattern of conquest and territorial expansion is a foolish western mirroring duer to a lack of understanding of the Confusian/Buddhist core of Chinese state of being. It is important to know that China is well aware of Western civilization and has experienced first hand the cruelty and humilliation that Western domination brought to the Chinese people. China has fought back against US and Nato abuse in its civil war against the Kuomintang. Taiwan is a vestige of that civil war which has remained as an open wound that China is determined to heal peacefully if possible and by force if it becomes necessary to do so. The greatest fear for the Chinese people has always been an invasion by the US and NATO. The reason for this attitude has been the aggressive nature of the US since China became a modern nation in 1949. Only a few months after declaring its independence, The US and NATO made China its enemy in Korea. 250 thousand Chinese volunteers drove the US back to the 38 parallel and created the conditions for a cease fire in 1950 that is still in force.China again helped the Vietnamese drive the US out of Vietnam in 1969. Now china has every rteason to believe that the US and NATO are hell bent on interfering in Taiwan to cause a presumption of The Chinese Civil War. To most people today in the US and the West Taiwan is an independent nation that is being harassed by China. They do not know that Taiwan is a region in China that since 1948 has been kept from unification with the mainland by the US and its allies. This interference has been part of a strategy by the US to contain China and prevent it from growing. China has been surrounded by US bases since 1948. Eventhough China is presently an emerging nation, its commerce with the world is extensive. This evolving civilization will continue to grow into the future, even if the US and the west manage to slow it down. The nature of the Chinese spirit is entrepreneurial and hard working. No matter what obstacles China faces, the use of wisdom, best practices, and experimentation for success is deeply routed in the Chinese character. The West has never known that the best way to live is by creating value for oneself and others. Confucius invented the golden rule: DO NOT DO UNTO OTHERS WHAT YOU WOULD NOT WANT OTHERS TO DO UNTO YOU.
Stfu. China is finished, and is just another name for West Taiwan :)
Hahahah,China doesn't have credit card
its a metaphor....but english isn't your first langauge huh china bot?
@@007kingifrit no. But my Chinese better than yours
@@americannumber2 who cares about that language why would i learn such an unimportant thing? here you are speaking the language my people tell you to speak
@@007kingifrit soon you have to learn Chinese. See you on the battle ground
@@americannumber2 your country can't feed itself or get oil. the battle will consist of 4 pilots bombing your oil reserves and dams and then us waiting a year for you to surrender
audio also with video would have been better, than a boring gif
The question should be Has us power peak?
Look up and listen to Peter Zeihan. He'll educate you on the future of what's to come. His recent podcast interviews are gold.
He is from where? University of Safari? Lol. He is a charlatan
Peter did one of these Intelligence Squared debates a few years ago. His team won by their usual method of measuring how many viewers changed their opinion as a result of their debate. He does a fine job debating his points.
Except Peter will never tell you what Ian told us in this debate. The Chinese retirement age is so low compared with the west that they could easily counter the low birth rate with an increase in their retirement age which they intend to start ratching up soon. Retirement age for women is 50, men 60 and it also varies by profession. Will you ever hear Peter tell you, his most gullible audience, tell you about that ? No way , he will keep milking that moot point from an angle which makes the naive western listener rave about the impending china crash !!! Lol.
@@bobmorane4926 So... if they retire later... that means they have more babies?
Demographics is about shifts over time. Even if China told every citizen "you're working until you're 65" today... that only means more people are still working and growing older. It will keep their economy going a few years longer. They're still going to face the exact same crash in their population, and the exact same crash in their ability to support those older citizens whenever they retire.
@@markpukey8 Well, it's all relative, my friend. If the West is pointing fingers at China about its demographics problems without taking into consideration that some countries in the West are already at the brink retiring at 70 , this means the discourse isn't frank and the situation is actually more dire in the West. Also, remember that China's population is already several times bigger than most other countries (4x the US population) , therefore scale does matter since other huge countries can function with much smaller populations, China will be fine even if 200 millions of its people just disappeared overnight putting it at 1.2 billion. I doubt this will happen though. China has lots of wiggle room compared with the West regarding the demographics issue. If USA can function fine with a 300 million population, China will do very well even with 'just' a 1 billion population. It will be more than sufficient to continue its growth trajectory.
This entire debate was absolutely painful to listen to, especially the Anti-China Michael debater. He stated everything like it's already done. Cherry picked all his facts, ignored the bigger picture, and just regurgitating whatever mainstream media was saying. I was hoping to learn something new, but was just a waste of time listening to him. Especially on Taiwan, the Taiwanese people voted against the DPP in the last November 2022 election, rejecting the Independence Party. Or the fact that he repeatedly called Xi a dictator when he knows full well that Xi was elected, and can be voted out by the 2,900 delegates at the NPC. Ignores the fact that all the laws were actually crafted by the NPC, and not just at Xi's whim. Granted, China's opaque political process hides a lot of these decisions from the public eye, giving fuel to the fire that everything's a rubber stamp parliament. But if that's true, how do you explain their middle class rise? You have to have some kind of mechanism for feedback from the people. He criticizes how Chinese companies are all state controlled, by only giving one example of Bytedance, while ignoring the thousands of others. It's incredible the kind of ignorance he was spewing. Ian provided a much more granular argument that gives you things to think about, while Michael's argument was just trying to shut down the debate: It's over. China's rise has piqued. Why are we even talking about this? It's done already. I already told you all the facts. Now go home. Don't think about this.
no they only show 20% of the power, plenty to show in the future
Many points are still at a bit superficial level, entertaining, though.
Ian is delusional, Michael is spot on, I have relatives living in China and what he said is literally happening
I think it is just opposite. Micheal wish China fail so much that he has too much hateful wishful thinking about China. in his opinion, China is about to collapse every minute or so. "China Collapse" theory has been around for over 30 years, the theory collapsed time and time again, while China has not! Well, I can tell he didn' t learn the lesson.
I applaud Beckley for so eloquently and comprehensively reciting all the most recent western media headlines in his opening speech. Just one problem: it tells me he’s been in his ivory tower for quite a while. “Lie flat”. Wow, congrats, Beckley, on your “latest” fancy word. I’m sorry but try harder and travel some while you’re at it.
Bremmer’s assessment is pretty spot on.
This debate is an utter and complete walkover.