“Home” isn’t what it used to be in the NBA…why?
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- čas přidán 26. 06. 2024
- “Home” isn’t what it used to be in the NBA…why?
It is well known that homecourt advantage is powerful in the NBA, and in basketball; however, over the past few decades, this effect has been changing…substantially.
What factors contribute to this advantage, and how can we statistically measure these factors? I have seen many analysts and individuals discuss the possible causation…but very few have sought to measure the different components.
To do this, we captured a decades worth of data from…every score from every game all the way back to the 1940s…back when the NBA was called the “BAA”.
There’s a bit of magic to homecourt advantage…let’s see if we can demystify it.
00:00 Different at Home
00:50 Frozen in Time…
01:33 Measuring “Home” Effects
16:02 What is it about “home?”
Citations
Moskowitz, T. J., & Wertheim, L. J. (2011). Scorecasting: The hidden influences behind how sports are played and games are won. openlibrary.org/books/OL24596...
Animation - Simonas Uzupis
Finally 100k my dog you are one of a kind
Thanks brotha…has been fun.
@@michaelmackelviethe first 100k is always the hardest, happy smooth sailing man
@@michaelmackelviehonestly a 100k doesn’t come close to what you deserve. Once again I got goosebumps and was completely immersed during your video. Keep up the amazing work!
It's absolutely wild to me that this channel only has 100K. This is far beyond the production quality of channels with several million subs.
His content is directly goes against what the algorithm wants. But by not bending he’s creating his own “gravitas” to his style.
Just like how a part of home is beyond verbal explanation, I feel similarly about all your videos. The way you mix in those nostalgic home tapes vdieos, the lego sets, the science and the way you speak. These videos are pure perfection, keep it up man.
i never comment on youtube videos but i have to let you know that your content is literally the best on youtube, such high quality that really keeps me engaged the entire time. big thanks to you for brightening my days!
At University we took a look at examples of this with referees in football/soccer. The audio of an audience booing or shouting had a noticeable impact on the decisions made.
Good point, in basketball I think of the quote from Andrew Bogut when he was on the Warriors. He basically commented on how surprised with how much he would get away with in terms of screens because the refs were so caught up watching Steph shoot (can't really blame them tbh lol). No doubt the crazy Oracle crowd also played a role in swaying calls. IMO a lot of it comes down to the refs being human which means that they aren't immune to getting caught up in the hype of the crowd and the moment. Very interesting to see that the bubble seemed relatively bias free too.
Great vid! noticed Michael did NOT highlight that life on the road for NBA teams has been improving over time (nicer hotels, airplanes, technology etc) which may also be the reason for reduced HCA across eras.
It would be interesting to see if someone could find a correlation between the accommodations different teams got for their players on the road and the performance of those teams
Now that the WNBA has begun charting flights, we can also check if this has an effect after a few more seasons.
@@ArtOca Good point! The introduction of WNBA charting flights might contribute to lower HCAs. This should be looked at.
@ArtOca the fever get sellout crowds that make it feel like a national championship game so they might get some advantage
Your sound and video editing are elite. It’s gentle yet leading. The content, storytelling, and aesthetic are unique. Every detail intentional. We see you. Congrats on your well-deserved success.
Takes a long time…but I hope it improves the experience.
When this channel inevitably reaches millions of subscribers, I'll be happy to say I found it when it was only a couple thousand. Congrats on the 100K.
Man, I studied multivariate data analysis for twelve hours today and would probably throw up if I were to consume statistics in any other way right now, but the way you package it is just something special. Great video, keep up the good work, and congrats for reaching the 100k mark :)
Always blown away by how "small" this channel currently is everytime I get to watch one of these. Seriously great stuff as always, and congrats on 100k. Much more to come I'm sure.
It’s pretentious
@@redhorsepapi Garbage take. It's incredible content.
@@Alexander_Grant good production value ≠ incredible content. It's like saying season 8 of game of thrones is great television
@@redhorsepapi Where did I say it was about production value? lmao It takes a question and goes into the data of why home teams have an advantage. You'll grow out of being a contrarian one day, no one really thinks it's cute.
@@redhorsepapiman what
Another master class from you. Great to see all the old footage from your childhood to accompany your compelling story.
“Urban spaceships providing passage to those who sought to see man fly” 4:18
What. A. Line.
Yo that Wood middle school footage is big time nostalgia. Thanks for another good video!
Hahaha my man! Yes…hopefully Inza would be proud
I coach a group of 5th soccer kids in aau basketball who just went to the far west regionals (in soccer).
Over the last 6 months. Your “final monologues” have hit on more key things I’ve tried to communicate to parents on “how to appreciate the moment with their kids in this journey”
Whether intentional or not. There is a book you could write.
Congrats on 100k man, your content deserves all the recognition!
Why has your channel not yet blown up? Maaaaan I think your content absolutely deserves similar viewership as the top NBA youtubers like Jxmy
you have become one of my favorite channels, always super interesting topics. keep grinding brotha, youll go far.
Thank you!
Congrats on 100k subscribers man! You're videos are amazing💪🏾
These vids are so high quality! Can’t believe you’re only at 100k
thank god you hit 100k, i love that every video you manage to tell such a beautiful story, excellent work
I'm so happy to see you get 100'000 subscribers! Let's go, this is so deserved!
Well deserved 100k, looking forward for that to be 10x soon! Keep up the great content
So glad you made it to 100k! You deserve it! Thank you for your research and your earnest story telling - it's so refreshing! Keep it up!
This video is one of your best yet! Great job
Criminal that you don’t have more subscribers. Great quality in every video🏀
Congrats on 100K, another great video too!
I love your account dude and you deserve so many more views and subs. Such good quality contrnt
Finally, 100k!!!!! Congrats man. Love the videos. Please don’t ever stop
Amazing video, was gripped the entire time. Keep up the great work and congrats on 100k!
Just a little note here that it is almost likely that the higher seed will play more games at home in the playoffs. For example if the 1 seed beats an 8 seed in 5 games then they would have played 3 games at home and two games away (2 home / 2 away / 1 home). Keeping in mind that teams may take their foot off the gas after winning the 2 games at home it seems likely that they may win all 3 home games in total and lose one of the away games.
This could definitely contribute to the point differential spread being higher in the playoffs. This is opposed to the regular season which should theoretically have an even spread of the lower seed and higher seed playing each other home and away.
As always a beautiful video and look forward to the next one with more lego shenanigans :)
I was thinking about that too the better team (in theory) play more game at home
Congrats on 100k! Best sports content out there
Hell yea. Congrats on 100k!
Another amazing vid man, it’s insane how underrated you are
Love the contents man. Congrats on 100k 🎉
Love watching ur stuff man, so high quality and so well directed. Keep ‘‘em coming 👍👍
your content is one of a kind man, amazing stuff as always keep up the great work
MacKelvie glossed over the reason why higher Elevation results in greater HCA. Lesser-known reason is that BASKETBALLS TRAVEL A LONGER DISTANCE (notice that Colorado Rockies have the most HRs) due to less air friction, leading to more missed shots for the away team as the visitors are not adjusted to the new arc or trajectory. Yes, altitude affects players both physically and mentally, making them feel breathless and fatigued because of less concentrated air. But that is not the only explanation.
Your videos are excellent, dude. Seriously. Great work!
Cool to see you make these kinds of videos as I learn how this kind of research is done in my sports economics class. Beyond just the statistics, your approach to video creation and story telling is awesome, Michael. Congrats on 100k!
Amazing video as always keep up the good work!
Ahh this was special, man. Always putting out great stuff😤
Wow you earned my subscription. Incredibly high production quality and super engaging. Can't wait for more.
Your videos are just so relaxing. Always calm me down after a stressful day or week. Wish you the best
this channel is special man, thank you as always
Your combo of data science and sports always makes my day!
Erudite and logically sound. Nice to see a great argument where explanation and exposition aren't confused. Great job!!
Well deserved 100k, here’s to many more
Love your videos. Such great quality
These videos are like understanding human nature thru sports analysis. They are really interesting even if I don't follow the sport.
Aye bro keep all these positive comments in mind this is good stuff man waitin for every video💯
👏👏Great video! Love the way you analyze and tell stories.
That Kobe commercial was perfect 😢
As I was writing this I immediately flashed back to it…had to mix it together because it’s just so soulful and beautiful.
Been waiting on a new video to drop 💯💯💯💯💯
I wonder if better construction techniques have also had an effect. It's well known that the Old TD Garden in Boston had a super wonky floor that the team took full advantage of. Dead spots, dips, etc. But now the floors should all be built the same you lose some of that advantage
You deserve every view and every sub. Keep it up man
As an italian fan of soccer, first of all, congratulation for the 100k! You really deserve them for the quality you bring.
I can tell you the home advantage in our sport is truly significant. Once I heard that when we play at home pitch, our brain triggers the primal instinct of defending our territory, releasing testosterone and adrenaline, making us more focused, aggressive and restistent to pain on the pitch
The major advantage of home court in NBA back in day was
YOUR PLANE NOT CRASHING, in the travel.
1/17/1960
This is such great content, it feels criminal watching it for free!
I wait for the notifications for these videos dropping like people from Seattle wait for NBA to return.
Gotta go to sleep 20 minutes later than i anticipated to catch this W of a video
Your videos are art. Pure quality, mental stimulation, emotion and magic. We thank you and your team
Great content once more.
No wondering you got up to 100K so quickly.
A question emerge: Where have you been all these years up until now?
Genuinely forget being one of the best sports accounts this is one of the best accounts on CZcams. Quality story telling personality all woven into one. Glad u reached 100k man 1 mil is just around the corner. Also was genuinely wondering if you ever thought of looking into esports.
Very cool video man!
Great story telling! ❤
The in-depth analysis and passion portrayed in your videos are unique and amazing ❤ it's something we seldom see nowadays👑👏👏👏
You are the most underrated CZcamsr and it’s not even close, keep up the amazing work
This is top notch quality. The big boys will be calling for this talent soon. Keep this up Mike, it’s high level smart stuff.
I rarely comment but your content is so good and well put together. One minor request/critique is to provide a little more time to view the charts and graphs (such as the scoring margin at 6:37 that was on the screen for less than 4 seconds). I’m finding that I’m having to rewind and pause the video occasionally in order to read some of them since I want to be able to read the axis labels and each bar info. Even ~3 additional seconds would be enough. But I absolutely love how you talk around the LEGO setup and computer. Thanks!
I wish I could give you a million likes and comments. Your channel truly is special.
Top tier basketball content. Keep it up my guy 🎉❤
Great production value here
just found you, time to bing ur content
fantastic content sir! big ups
Amazing as always
Great video brotha
Absolute cinema. Love the videos
First, congrats on 100K. Well deserved with the quality content. Referees determining what's an infraction or not definitely explains some of factors. Someone in comments mentioned advancements in travel, lodging, and wellness for players. You could even add player skill or to put it eloquently, the players on the bench have gotten better. Can't hide liabilities without other teams exploiting that.
Thought provoking topic and I agree Seattle needs a new basketball team.
Crazy u deserve at least a mil for this beutiflul content
My Boston Celtics have been a home/away anomaly… I think the post season pressure to win affected guys the last few seasons.
Thanks for confirming it’s the Refs… saw my Celtics have a 1 FT game this season, at home… glad we ended up on the right side of the script.
Ending is always amazing
Honestly, in an NBA game, there are a ton of possessions in 48 minutes with a 24 second shot clock. The games are many times decided before the 4th quarter. Crowds don't have the energy to scream and distract every possession. Therefore when a game is 99 to 86 at the start of the 4th, the damage is done even if the home team gets out to a huge lead, the number of possessions and a tempered 2nd and 3rd quarter crowd allows a better team to get up big no matter where they are at.
14:54 so what you’re telling me is people discredit the bubble because… it was fair?
Analysis too cogent and reasonable; unsubscribed
Too unbiased, I don’t know who his favorite team is or what kind of narrative he’s trying to pull so I unsubscribed too.
Best CZcamsr out by far. Another excellent video
Fantastic, as usual.
Great video!
You make the highest quality basketball content on CZcams, by far. Congrats on hitting 100k
Your videos are awesome.
As a math major, I appreciate your logical breakdowns. One small thing I think you missed at 12:40... In the playoffs, the better teams gets home court advantage. Logically, the better teams should also have a higher 3pt %, hence why this is likely a greater difference in the playoffs: as the better teams get more home games to add to your stat.
Thanks for letting me be such a nerd.
Also comparing the effects of crowds in European basketball games to NBA games (and the difference in celebration methods) would be an interesting social effect experiment.
Not sure how youtube is just letting me know about this channel. Amazing work!
Thank you!
Amen brother. Home is something else. Congrats on 100k!
This is the best sports channel on the site!
Was that a little Don Draper Mad Men “The Carousel” spoof at the end there?👀
7:25
There’s also the fact that in the playoffs, the team that is statistically better is at home more, meaning the home team should be winning more
Back when I played in a couple of leagues, there were gyms that absolutely destroyed shooting percentages. Traveling teams would enter these gyms and the best players would lose 5-10%. Something about the layout, the lighting, whatever it was, it was dramatic and obvious that those gyms messed with depth perception.
I remember years ago that players talked about how playing in LA and New York was disruptive due to the "stage" lighting.
So, I believe that as the atmosphere and similarity of arenas in the modern age has diminished the variables and their impacts have waned. Travel has improved. Lodging has improved. Personnel management has improved. With all of these improvements, the delta between home and away has shrunk considerably.
Now, to this specific video, very well done!
Before you brought up middle school I was getting flashbacks to my middle school court 😂
I imagine traveling was much more taxing on away teams when their modes of transportation weren’t as luxurious as modern times
Great video
It makes sense
Ref bias is the biggest source of home court/field advantage and over time reffing has become more consistent