Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast 2024 (May 23rd) - Hyperactive Season Expected Now...
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- čas přidán 12. 07. 2024
- This is the May 23rd updated version of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. All models, including myself, forecast a hyperactive season this year, with a moderate to strong La Nina likely and a record-warm Atlantic basin. Even NOAA is on the verge of predicting a hyperactive season. So, in this update, I'll give you the latest on how many named storms Penn State University is predicting.
#hurricaneseason #weather #tropical
Video Chapters:
0:00 - Intro
0:21 - Any Happening Now?
1:44 - Record Warm Atlantic
6:05 - Upper Ocean Heat Content Comparison
12:16 - Why A Busy Hyperactive Season?
25:02 - The 2024 May 23rd Forecast
29:38 - MJO Playing A Critical Role
33:51 - What Will I Provide In My Updates?
36:36 - Outro/Promotion
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seasonalhurricanepredictions.org/forecast/seasonal-predictions
We can already feel how weather’s been changing the last few years. Tons of unusual events happening and in areas where they don’t usually occur.
It just feels like it’s going to be a nasty year for all kinds of weird weather.
I’m right off the water, west coast Florida. Definitely preparing more this year than normal.
My sister is in Saint Petersburg and niece in Tampa. I’m nervous for everyone. Thank you for all the great information.
Oh gosh that is scary because the west side truly is the worst side to be on.
This is going to be a really bad season. We will be ready to get people engaged with weather at Storms United
Oh yeah it's looking pretty bad unfornatly and we have to be ready for this.
@@WeatherForce2024 And we will be.
@@WeatherForce2024what does Connecticut look like for hurricane season 2024 ?
@@WeatherForce2024 I totally Agree David the Noaa has even warned people well inland that some cat 3 hurricanes could go well far inland this year.
Me too agree with that indeed pat
My forecast
23-30 Named
12-16 Hurricanes
5-9 Major Hurricanes
ACE 190-250
90% Chance of above average activity.
Thank you David you never let us down❤
Great update David. You have been very thorough explaining what our hurricane season could look like. I don't think you are fear mongering, just stating the facts.
I just knew it was gonna be bad because it has felt too safe these last couple years. Too hot here anyway
got hit by a tornado already in tallahassee, hopefully no hurricanes 🙏🙏
Rapid intensification . Living in SW Florida I know this well .
Hello David. Loved how you used the CSU graph; very interesting and nice how they included you. I think you did a great job on all the graphics you gave in this update. It gives a person a better idea and understanding on this upcoming hurricane season. We will see soon on the exact numbers. Thanks David. Looking ahead to your next.
Sounds like 2004, when we put up the storm shutters and left them on for a month!
Not 2004, sounds like 2005.
we’ve kept some of our shutters on the house since 2017 cuz we keep forgetting to take them out 🤣🤣 blocks the heat at least
You have some of the best hurricane coverage of anyone. Thanks as always.
Thank you very much. I do appreciate it and I am so excited to track the Atlantic hurricane season as it unfolds.
I like the big purple pointer much more than the small white pointer. Easier to see.😀🌀
Thanks so much. I really appicate it Keith.
My family in Houston Texas, i hope they know that what's coming cause its gonna be bad...
Yeah Noaa even warned us folks well far inland about this whole scenario this season makes me think that some hurricanes can go well far inland this year.
Personally I’d go with anywhere between 17-31 named storms we are falling somewhere in that range probably closer to 31.
Considering this yr is already well above normal temps so early, do you think it’s theoretically possible that summer temps could unexpectedly exceed the scientists projections like it has these past years?
Therefore is there room for hurricanes to be even worse than they think as of the data they have now? (since we haven’t truly realized full summer heat yet)
My goal is to get of Florida by September fingers crossed 🤞 be safe everyone
How about some discussion about how a large number of storms could interact and how more powerful storms may or may not be able to maintain their intensity. Also, the implication is high temps will increase intensity. I assume this means wind intensity. Katrina tells us the size of the wind field is very important because of wave setup.
lets hope we dont have any otis like storms this year
There was at least 1 or 2 named storms in December of 2005
My forecast is 19-26 named storms, 12-17 hurricanes, and 3-7 major hurricanes. I think the season will be very active because of La Niña and the ocean temperatures.
I agree with your forecast
How many landfalls are in your forecast?
@@ebonaparte3853 I think 6 landfalls average and 4-8 landfalls
@@weatherandedits And major landfalls?
@@ebonaparte3853 major probably 0-2
Certainly could be very busy, but I’m curious if human cause climate change, caused by greenhouse gas emissions is partially responsible while we have record warm. Temperatures are in the Atlantic.
Climate change is the cause of this, no doubt about it.
My pre-final season predictions:
29 Tropical Storms
14 Hurricanes
7 Major Hurricanes
3 Category 5 Hurricanes
Crazy to think this would be “conservative”
Final predictions on May 31st / June 1st
Wow those are concerning
I live about 45 mins from corpus Christi texas and my current water temp is 81 degrees already this year
This hurricane season could be bad like 2005 or 2020 type level. 2005 had 4 Category 5 storms.
What if we get a powerful Cat 5 storm with maximum winds up 200mph I’m just saying
I mean bro I'm like holy crap the temp being that warm. Being in Florida I'm just like wow that's not supposed to happen until mid July August- like whoa what's that mean for the summer what's it gonna reach! I feel bad for all wildlife too
@@kimberlyward350 Bro I’m in Florida as well Miami and it’s been really hot foreal and it’s going to get hotter
Mexico which includes Belize has been having record Temperatures already!!
Yep. It’s affecting Florida. Insanely hot. 98-100 this Memorial Day.
Imagine if we had to use all the Greek alphabet names too
Stop giving ideas😂
That would really be bad because they don’t use the Greek alphabet anymore.
Any chance of these storms getting close to southern New England? We haven’t had a hurricane since BOB in the 90’s
Sandy in 2012. It’s possible. Always be ready.
@@pm5206 that didn’t come up to southern New England
@@ArubaOneHappyIsland
Connecticut was hit by Sandy. Four people died.
Even if New England doesn't get a direct hit indirect hits are always possible. Remnants are always an issue for the more northern states. So even if a fully formed storm doesn't make landfall the remnants can definitely cause issues. So definitely prepare
@@kristinmarie862Ida was an example of what storm remnants can do.
@@ebonaparte3853 Indeed it was. I couldn't go to work the next day due to the flooding. More people died in NJ than LA
cant wait to see this not happen right guys
I’m not so sure about that
Hate to say it, but this is a worst case scenario setup. Extremely warm and untapped waters from last year, a La Nina, and a massive moisture anomaly is a recipe for disaster across many areas in the tropics.
This is definitely expected
I plan to prepare since I`m not the proper victim type to get any aid or sympathy if Louisiana gets another bad storm. I was hit twice in 2020. No help from the government. No help from anyone.
Yes. We don’t want high impacts. If this is like 2010, that’s good.
What NOAA predicted for this hurricane season is bad but I think the numbers could be alittle higher you just never know
They could go ballistic
I live in Miami Dade County 😮😮😮😮
Me too, we're screwed lol.
Buckle Up!
I live in Daytona I'm gonna get out
AMOC is slowing down
It could be more than 30 named storms
I expect a hyperactive season
My thinking is 22-40 named storms, 9-18 hurricanes, 6-13 major hurricanes, 1-6 major hurricanes could reach category 5. Not liking the setup I am seeing. Not gonna surprise me if it does even have major hurricane in July. People need to prepare for what is to come especially when it comes to July through November.
Wow, up to 40 named storms, that would be absolutely horrendously extreme.
Bro I have a bad feeling about this hurricane season it’s going to get ugly
@johnnyfrancois9491 yeah. A lot of members are predicting near record to record high amount of named storms. It is very alarming. If that many named storms form just in a month of June and July plus August is active, then record most active hurricane season of all time is possible. This season could be decades if not more.
40 named storms if true would almost run out of even supplemental names. 21 names. I wonder what NHC will do if even Supplemental names even run out.
Needs 42 names to used all letter and supplemental named storms.
I agree because every single indicator is saying that this season will be worse than 2020 literally every single one
Cat 6 hurricane? Maybe they'll update the scales after this year
This season is going to have 33 major storms 15 hurricanes and 19 major hurricanes
Could very well end up that way unfortunately this is going to be a wicked season for sure.
Wow 19 major hurricanes boy if that would to happen the entire US is doomed
@@johnnyfrancois9491the uk would even get hit by something tropical
@@johnnyfrancois9491 Absolutely 💯
A bit bullish with the major hurricanes, wouldn’t you say. Probably more like 9-11 major hurricanes.
Yes we have a concerning fingerprint of a season but predicting over 30 named storms is a little bit silly. This isnt me saying its not possible, but the problem is youve predicted way higher than NOAA, UKMET and CSU, i just dont want your viewers to look at it and think youre scare mongering. Theres ALOT of hype with this season already but until its over we wont know whats happened and if it under performs these intense forecasts gives people reason to lose faith in forecasters. So far youve given your viewers alot of reason to be scared, but havent done any videos on how to prepare, what to do in evacuations, tips for protecting important documents from flood damage, how to properly run a backup generator. Its important to put a lid on the fear. Guarenteeing over 20 storms is also irresponsible, you can not guarentee anything, even if all indicators are suggesting it, its still a suggestion and not a guarentee. Just be careful because you have an audience and your words have power and matter.
Other creators have videos about how to prepare. And there very well could be over 30 named storms. The setup is a worse case scenario this year.
He wasn’t trying to scare monger. He was just stating the facts.
@ebonaparte3853 I know he's not trying to, I'm just pointing out that he could be and to be more careful with language use as I have stated in my original comment. I also stated that I wasn't saying over 30 storms couldn't happen, I'm well aware of the outlook for the season, but there are still no guarantees and forecasts even when they point to worst case scenario can be wrong still and millions of people are already storm weary from the tornado season never mind hurricane season. You have to remember that it's actual people these storms can hit and so language while forecasting is so important to get right with potentially already anxious/scared/traumatised viewers.
@ebonaparte3853 No, just relay the facts that we CURRENTLY have for their POTENTIAL (not guarentee). What he's predicting can't be truth because it hasn't even happened yet. I'm not gonna go round in circles explaining what ive said. I've followed this channel for 7 years now, I'm not the enemy, I'm giving constructive criticism which David himself has liked. Have a nice evening.
@@LifeAccordingToMel Sorry for being rude. I don’t think I understood what you were saying.
IT'S PANIC TIME!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Hoping to get a hurricane here in Jersey! We need rain during the summer. Less than 1 inch fell last year during the entire summer and I wanna do a lil storm chasing. I don’t care about the other effects, just bring us SUMMER RAIN please!
Please don’t wish for any significant hurricane there because there’s an opportunity unfortunately for more than two systems to head that way
I'm in NJ. PLEASE don't wish for a hurricane. Average people are already turning up their noses at the forecasts with a "nothing will happen here" attitude. Nobody needs the devastation a hurricane will bring. Please. Wish for other things.
@@kristinmarie862 I don’t wish for a big storm, should’ve clarified that. Just a weaker one maybe 75-85mph. It wouldn’t flood many coastal areas, for they’ve put in MASSIVE dunes after Sandy at least in my region. It’d take a cat 3 to overwhelm them! A hurricane of that strength WOULD however bring MASSIVE amounts of rain, which my area DESPERATELY needs during the summer, and trigger a SECOND growing season. It would be magnificent for my local area’s gardens!
@@finlandball1939A tropical storm would do.
Lots of hurricane parties😂!
What category do you evacuate for?
Never had to!
@@williamjaques3617 You might have to this year. It’s going to be different than other seasons.
Good try
Surprisingly, nothing in May.
Is that sarcasm?
They changed the rating of Hurricanes up to a (6) this year never before in History have they raised the Ratings above (5) till this year!!
No they didn’t cat 6 does not exist
When did *NOAA* change their Saffir-Simpson Scale?
No. That’s unnecessary. No storm with winds higher than 160 has hit the US since Andrew.
Nope.
@@gregd4633That is disinformation.
This is the United States. We think in fahrenheit not metric system. This means zero to us in South Florida.
Point is, it’s very warm. The warmest ever for this time of year. Hurricane season could be horrible.
@@ebonaparte3853 I hope not. It's just so crushing for the stray cats. We shall see.
@@kellyjohnson2428 Maybe it’ll surprise us. We’ll see.
Nobody uses Fahrenheit in science. Thats why all those maps and charts are in Celsius. Greetings from Germany
Stop click bait
It’s not click bait. It’s a warning.
Jesus is coming
Signs of the times. Signs of the second coming of jesus christ. That day will bake like an oven. Calamities on the earth before the sunday law. Mountains and island chains will disappear.