What happened to Juventus?
Vložit
- čas přidán 5. 06. 2024
- Try The Athletic for FREE for 30 days: www.theathletic.com/tifoirl
Juventus won the Serie A title for 9 seasons in a row, but in an attempt to be more dominant in Europe have fallen behind domestically.
Jon Mackenzie explains what has happened.
Follow Tifo Football:
Twitter: / tifofootball_
Facebook: / tifofootball
Instagram: / tifofootball_
Listen to the Tifo Football podcast:
Apple Podcasts: bit.ly/TifoFootPod
Spotify: open.spotify.com/show/06QIGhq...
About Tifo Football:
Tifo loves football. We create In-depth tactical, historical and geopolitical breakdowns of the beautiful game.
We know there’s an appetite for thoughtful, intelligent content. For stuff that makes the complicated simple.
We provide analysis on the Premier League, Champions League, La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga, World Cup and more.
Our podcasts interview some of the game’s leading figures. And our editorial covers football with depth and insight.
Founded in 2017 and became a part of The Athletic in 2020. For business inquiries, reach out to tifo@theathletic.com.
Music sourced from epidemicsound.com
Additional footage sourced from freestockfootagearchive.com
#Juve #Juventus #SerieA - Sport
They fell off when fifa started calling the “permentio calcio” or whatever
how can you misspell such a legendary club like piemonte calcio like that??? 😭
Okay, Galleth Boredom.
I believe its actually spelt 'parmentier potato'
Piemonte is a legendary italian football and Calico is what they call football in Italy.Hencje Piemonte Calico❤️
We all enjoy playing a bit of Fifa career mode and finding out you've drawn Peppermint Calgon in the Champions league
It's funny to me how many executives cannot grasp the concept that system managers need more than one season to build a successive team.
Credit to Arsenal's directors due on that point
They dont understand tactics and squad building similarly to fans. Many fans wanted Arteta out and maybe sooner ETH out but they are also examples of system managers. Fans and non football personalities dont understand this.
@@safebans1369 Yea Edu is a footballing personality so he understands the process / system. Same with Maldini at AC. and other clubs like Bayern and Ajax.
@@sigfigronath That's the funny thing - while fans are just some plebs, executives run football clubs which are multi-million dollar businesses. And they still don't know any better than some random guys on the internet.
@@NikozBG unfortunately seeing the success of Chelsea may blind some of these people to believe that way of sacking managers is best way... Penalising for their results.
This video should be used as part of Pirlo's C.V. for his next job application. I'm impressed by it.
I'm amazed Pirlo was criticised so often by the media which gave the impression he was the worst appointment ever made at Juve. Now I'm thinking differently.
As a Juve fan, I think I would've gave him a second year.
With that being his first year managing (as well as a covid year, what a time he chose to manage..), and with a squad that was and is really average I thought he did quite well. That being said, a lot of games the team looked lost and without much creativity or idea. So while I still think he deserved a transfer window and a second year to see if his style that did show some flashes would work, I could understand why the board ultimately chose to sack him though we continue to regress..
He did win a cup that year also. Quite unfair imo
@@sigfigronath two cups
@@sindaco710 oh yea 2 cups mb
@@walterblanco7983 yes but when Juve played badly under him was largely caused by injuries to our creative players. It seemed that only Dybala or Cuadrado could actually create the chances.
One small correction: Pirlo didn’t actually manage the primavera team (u-23), he was brought for that job, but then promoted to the first team before he even started. He had just gotten his FIFPro credentials. It like somebody becoming CEO of a Fortune 100 company straight of of college.
I'd say Pirlo's appointment was a premature decision, but sacking him was even more so. Had they given him more time and the opportunity to sign players he wanted, he could've eventually become a success.
He would always have been hamstrung by Ronaldo being there
I'd say he was two world class players away from building a really good team. And 4 world class players away from building a truly dominant side.
@@cheifwhat How?
@@revenant8061 my guess is ronaldo doesnt fit the system that pirlo wants for his players. While Ronaldo’s numbers in terms of goals were still impressive, the team became overly reliant on him. Also, as mentioned in the video, ronaldo’s wages meant that the Juventus had a hard time shifting other players around that would fit Pirlo’s system better.
Agreed
Juventus in the last decade have experienced the "Bayern Monaco status": basically, since the two rivals from Milan had tremendous economical problems after 2012, and couldn't afford any decent player, Juventus had been the only club who could generate revenue from the Champions League and buy good players; the gap between Juventus team and the second best's one was ridiculous, therefore you knew already in August who would have win the Serie A the next year.
What happened is that, in the last three years, the two rivals from Milan reached a stable economical situation - well, more or less - while Juventus had to deal with those stupid contracts signed by Paratici. Moreover, the Decreto Crescita, a new tax law, helped many teams to sign foreigner players for less money, which improved the whole Serie A level
1:31 I disagree, since the same year Milan won the Champions and in 2010 Inter managed to win the Treble. Back then Juventus team was pretty wack
Yes our "world class" players were clearly past their prime (Trezeguet, Del Piero, Cannavaro, etc...) and the rest were mostly mediocre. Fulham is still in my nightmares.
@@otto_jk Fulham werent small team that season. They reached Europa finals. Should have won Europa that's how good they were.
@@edenhazard2751 no. But Zamora isn't exactly Del Piero, nor Hughes a Cannavaro
Juventus has disastrously dipped to banter level, only Napoli has improved. Milan`s european success is? because everyone else rose in level right?
It's funny that when you show the underlying stats, Pirlo seems to have had the best season of the last 4 seasons but he was fired after only 1. Maybe firing him was a mistake from Juve
I thought that he did well considering the circumstances and him clearly needing a world class midfield to really implement his playstyle. I don't think it'll ever happen but I'll wait for Conte to return. Allegri has always been a boring manager, who is only tolerable when he gets results, losing and being forced to watch his tactics feels horrible.
Much of that is caused by Ronaldo scoring goals not being better as a team.
@@ibaahussam4461 Sarri also had Ronaldo and all their underlying stats under Pirlo are better
They panicked because they went from 9 wins to 4th place. Were afraid it'd get worse. It's what happens when your whole board don't understand ball. Only Nedved knew. Paratici and Agnelli are inept and are numbers guys
But he didn't have the best season. What actually happened is what matters not what should have happened!
The biggest factor imo, which wasn’t really covered here is that Juventus lost the best part of the team around the same time, the reason for their success was their solid defense + having Vidal, Pirlo, Pogba and marchisio in a midfield diamond, those 4 midfielders left and were never replaced with someone of equal quality, their back line aged and wasn’t replaced either
Exactly, nobody can replace the MVPP midfield (and Khedira and Pjanic) as well as the BBC backline over a couple of seasons. Not to mention the disruption of the Higuain, Dybala, Mandzukic striking combo up front when CR7 arrived. Those are all huge factors. But Allegri is an easy target, especially for those who do not understand Italian football well.
@@argablarga i mean Allegri does play terror ball when it really isn't necessary (Fiorentina having 66% possession against Juve is a disgrace) but yes. Juventus should have completely rebuilt their midfield summer 2019 and they should have never gotten rid of cancelo and spinazzola
@@olofacosta3192 Cancelo is a terrible defender and inadequate in midfield for Serie A. Danilo was preferable. But Spinazzola was a bit of a loss unfortunately.
@@argablarga if you think cancelo who is arguably the best fullback in the world is not better than Danilo than that is on you
@@olofacosta3192 I think it just shows your lack of understanding of league and club differences. Cancelo is great for Man City and EPL. He sucked at Juve and Serie A.
Regarding the wage point, I don't even think it was just Ronaldo that messed up their structure. Sure, his wages were massive but they brought a bunch of useless free agents at massive wages, like Rabiot, Ramsey and Emre Can. They bough De Ligt for a staggering 85M euros price tag, a player that they didn't even need (they had Chiellini, Bonucci, Romero and to a lesser extent Demiral) and never made much of an impact to the point that he's already left. Why didn't they use this money to buy midfielders and fullbacks, which is what was needed to supply Ronaldo? Funnily enough they only did it (Locatelli, Pogba, Di Maria, Kostic) when he left. lmao Simply mindblowing decisions.
and at the time people thought that getting all of those free agents was such a coup, because they were on free transfers, but it turned out to all have been poor decisions, none of them were actually that good, and certainly didn't live up to the massive wages they had because of being free agents.
1. We switched our idea of building plays from central to wings trough Sarri, sadly that was beyond the curve of current football and most importantly transfer funds were pretty low due to high wages and Ronaldo S bill. That didn't allow to make the full transition thus the poor results, while also putting the defensive line too high for our standards. We had a solid backbone but relatively poor qualitatively speaking and no room to improve due to lacks of market opportunities and funds.
2. We switched again hoping that Ronaldo would mask the deficiencies but he performed poorly that year and in the meantime we lost players with the right proactive attitude and couldn't attract new ones.
3. We re now stuck in an imbetween way where we have sort of a rebuild that can be done only trough massive sacrifices (Dybala fe) and lost international recognition, so top players won't come on a fly.
On the 0 parameters, people tend to forget that we built that great 2015 midfield trough Pogba and Pirlo, a lot of good signings were on the lower end of fees also.
So there was confidence we would have nailed it again with Rabiot and Ramse and Arthur, , time showed that our scouting seriously fell behind and we also didn't adapt to the change of pace and tactics of the last years.
Coupled with an inherent weakness of findings and Serie A appeal this has Brough us down considerably
You can't look at general stats without acknowledging the fact that the Milan clubs strength increased massively during the 2018 onwards seasons. The Milan clubs started fixing back office issues, quality recruitments, new club ownership etc. Their increased strength is one major reason Juve fell from the top.
Add to that, Juve not replacing aging stalwarts like Bonucci and Chellini, poor recruitment like players Ramsay and Arthur. Juventus also started to not get favourable ref calls (yes, they still get dodgy contentious ref bias...) because VAR technology was becoming more prevalent in the game which meant hollowers and 'dodgy stuff' was harder to let go.
GF, GA, XG and XGA are irrelevant as a sole club issue as it doesn't take in to the account the strength of the opposition increasing during this time. Serie A sides across the board have increased massively since the 2018 season. Progressive new coaches, quality imports and Italy's tax law changes for footballers all helped increase the quality within the league.
Add to that season ending injuries to star players like Cheisa (basically like Salah being injured all year for Liverpool) and you soon realise the rest of the competition has caught up to Juve while a few small decisions, aging star players and unlucky injuries have caused the team to seem to move backwards.
Juves biggest mistake was made on 31 October 2018.
Giuseppe "Beppe" Marotta was sacked as CEO (for protesting Ronaldo purchase order from the owners) and it was all down hill from then on for Juve. His arrival at Inter Milan on 13 December 2018 started Inter's revival in earnest from that point on till present day. One of the best director of sports/CEO anywhere in the world today.
Non so se sei italiano, ma non potevi spiegarti meglio, davvero, hai azzeccato tutto
@@frafrafrafrafra Im as Italian as a can of Spam, but this guys speaking straight facts. (I follow Italian football as closely as one can in my country, I just love Italian football)
@@nickchivers9029 yes, that's what I said, he couldn't be more right
Was adding Ronaldo a mistake?
@@Geassmaster55 Yes it was in hindsight. He didn't suit those around him in the team - his presence in the club blew out the wage bill so other better player additions were not able to be added to the squad so the overall team strength ultimately suffered over time. Ronaldo's star power caused the team to focus play style to suit him and him alone to the detriment of the team as a whole over time. It may have been the weakness of the coaches to stamp their authority over Ronaldo's star power but in the end none did it.
The same issue Barcelona experienced with the later years of Messi - a team built around a aging star player who had more power than the coach and whom was taking so much financial strength out of the club in extreme wages, causing the club can not invest adequately in its future needs. Barca are only now just beginning to start the recovery from Messi leaving and Juve, (post Ronaldo), is now doing that recovery building as well.
It’s simple, the game moved on, they tried doing that with 2 managers who they never fully trusted, but ultimately went back to a guy who’s tactically inept of evolving his tactics.
Pirlo got them at least a price, I doubt Allegri will do the same this season
I think Allegri needed a new project, not Juventus on the low all over again. And Juventus needed a new and young coach. Paulo Fonseca would have worked, maybe Di Francesco
@@theportugueselegend I think Pirlo would have worked if he was given the proper backing.
Allegri’s time has passed with his refusal to evolve his tactics and then to blame it on the team not being further really shows you how out of touch he was
Yes. Juventus have always been about winning with a squad full of painters and decorators with one or two unicorns (Platini, Baggio, Zidane, etc.) mixed in. Winning without style is not acceptable in a world where football is more entertainment than ever. AC Milan have always been about winning in style. That's why they will always have more allure.
Juventus lost patience with Sarri and Pirlo because they prefer winning at all costs. That business model does not work anymore, and Agnelli (the man who knows the price of everything and the value of nothing) is very much out of touch with reality. The best thing he can do is kiss and make up with Conte and bring him back and give him the money required to compete. Better yet, they should go for The Actress (aka Mourinha). The Old Lady and The Actress (both love to win at all costs), that would be a match made in heaven.
What??? Allegri was the guy who won us the scudetti in the first place, and got us to the CL. To say that Pirlo, who is struggling in TURKEY rn, was our answer, is beyond ridiculous.
@@datcalcioboi exactly my thoughts. Pirlo might be good as an assistant coach to try out new things, but Juve need to primarily build a defensively capable squad to win tournaments with Allegri that made them who they were known for, as well as for his tactics in the CL, which is what they lost after sacking him. It will take time but he'll deliver unlike Sarri lol.
Allegri's tactics are too defensive and finally cracked by his competitors. I remember Pochettino's Spurs pinned Allegri's Juventus down in their own half throughout a UCL match, although Juventus eventually won using their park-the-bus tactic
lol I remember that match
Then, in that case, he succeeded 🤣 But I get what you mean, losses and draws in Italy prove your point
Juventus beat Tottenham because he had no other choice but to attack and press the ball high up. The irony is that when he does that tactic we have had masterful matches
How to undermine yourself immediately with your own comment. You clear don’t watch Serie A. While Juve have resting on their laurels and recruiting awfully, the rest of Top clubs such Inter, Napoli, and Milan have made massive improvements. The lost of Marietta to a rival was absolutely massive. Allegri still has the best record against other managers. Only Inter and Inzanghi have been a consistent thorn in his side (which makes sense there are the best team Serie A). As Man Utd have shown it doesn’t matter what style you play if your midfield is awful, don’t win.
@@Siralexandrine we just bought Casemero hopefully things get better
Juventus recruitment has been pretty woeful there strategy of going for free transfers to replace outgoing players has backfired the likes of rabiot and ramsey have been mediocre at best, even player swap have failed Arthur is nominal in the midfield. They missed out on the likes of tonali, zaniolo and barrella who are some of the best midfield players in the league. They also critically neglected certain positions the fullbacks positions need real solid options for me cuadrado is the only player who looks decent. In terms of centre backs juve have failed to find reliable defenders bonucci and chilleini made it respectable. Again they missed out on bastoni who is one of the best centre backs in the league.
Arthur wasn't even a transfer, it was an accounting trick for both Juve and Barca to relieve some issues. It was more valuable for both to get rid of Pjanic and Arthur than it was for them to come in for either.
Even in Scotland ramsay was poor
Zaniolo yes, but Barella and Tonali are essentially Inter and Milan boyhood fans who wanted absolutely nothing to do with Juventus. Just like Chiesa and Vlahovic were only interested in Juventus and wouldn't consider other bids.
@@pritapp788 they should still get Zaniolo in the future, he's a Juve fan, heard he wants to hold out for Juve specifically
Zaniolo having a glass knees is the biggest factor no one poach him from Roma not because Juve or other team missing out on him, so until he shown that he can consistently healthy he probably would never go to a better team than Roma
The point about wage structure in juventus certainly applies to Manchester United as well
Simple the Conte effect finally weared off. Buffon, Barzagli and Chiellini went away. The great midfield also went away.
Nonsense Allegri rebuild the whole midfield from Conte. Pogba, Vidal etc all left
Indeed. It was under allegri they had their best years.
From 2013 to 2019, the gap between the Juventus team and the second best's one was ridiculous. That's why they managed to win every year and now they don't
@@DanielGiuseppeDiNiro I guess the champions League must have also been weak because there was a period they doing really well in it.
@@DanielGiuseppeDiNiro Roma and especially napoli did challenge them till the end, but they couldnt maintain that kind of level season on season
Expected points are pretty ridicolous, in 18/19 (last season with Allegri before the comeback) Juve won the scudetto almost 2 months before the end of the season, they could've played in flip flops and still won the league.
Inter and Milan had terrible squads then. It tells something when Roma and Napoli were besides us the biggest competitors for the scudetto.
Some of these 'expected' things are just pointless but Tifo include every one they can find 😂
To me, what all the xG type stats actually show is how good a team is at performing in the vital, high-pressure moments. If a manager consistently gets his players to out-perform these stats, it shows his abilities in motivation. Conversely, a manager whose team under-performs those stats is failing to get them to perform in the most important parts of the game, scoring and conceding goals. This is why stats-based football can only get you so far. There is no stat for morale.
I used to teach statistics at university. You make a very, very good point. There are so many intangibles and variables that a statistical model simply cannot convey. And in this case, using it to compare the least successful season for Allegri (a non-systems coach) with Sarri and Pirlo (systems coaches), makes it even worse, because it's like comparing apples and oranges.
I think pirlo would be a genuinely world class manager. You could see what he wanted to do and he was very clear about his ‘system’ but the team wasn’t built for it and he had too much pressure and not enough time. I think he would be a fantastic appointment to the Italian national team who are not in the World Cup and are going through quite a massive shift in players and age and would suit a new. Modern. System.
The data appears to show that Pirlo deserved a dressing room that didn't revolve around Ronaldo.
Ridiculous. As a person who taught statistics at university, I can only say this is a classic case of putting the cart before the horse. These kinds of statistical models for assessing performance and forecasting are unreliable at best. Added to the English understanding of Serie A which is poor, the analysis of the three coaches is fairly flawed. Allegri had great success with Juventus from 2013--2017. The XG data in those seasons is not presented in this video. My guess is that his XG and XGA performance in those seasons was not markedly different to his performance in 2017-18. He plays a different tempo of football to the EPL/Bundesliga all guns blazing approach.
It's not really surprising that Allegri's XGA of 36 was higher than the actual goals conceded. Allegri as a coach has no problem with his teams ceding possession and absorbing pressure - which does mean shock horror that the other team gets more time to create chances. That doesn't translate to more goals scored against his teams though because his coaching style is to ensure that his defenders are equipped to handle that kind of pressure. He also does not look to create a multitude of chances. His teams counter attack and aim to create fewer higher probability chances that are meant to be converted ruthlessly by high quality strikers.
So yes he may have his flaws as a coach, but XG and XGA comparisons are not a reliable or useful indicator for how well an Allegri team plays - especially because he's not a 'systems coach'. But even if a person was to use the XG and XGA figures, they should at least be mitigated proportionately! 22.1 XGD when the actual goal difference is 40, is quite a bit different than XGD 36 when the actual goal difference is 39. It shows that the XG and XGA metric is using a standardized approach to compare apples and oranges!
Agreed that Calciopoli was disastrous for Juventus and for Serie A. Agreed on the poor management decisions too., particularly from Paratici and Nedved who ended up bringing all kinds of wrong players into the squad - which is why Marotta quit and Allegri was not happy. Those parts of the video are fairly accurate.
The question is whether Allegri's brand of football is still relevant these days in a world of super athletes. Can technically good defenses withstand the assault of super fast sprinters who create more pressing pressure than in the past? I think this season from Allegri will go a long way in providing the answer to that question. Perhaps it is time that football has moved on from technical adeptness to pure athleticism. This just passed summer transfer has seen the exit of a number of players that needed to be removed, and the entrance of a number of players that Allegri can work with. Still there are a couple who still do not suit - but if Allegri comes in with a much improved performance this season, then management is on the right track.
Great video. Would love to see more teams broken down
I feel vindicated.
When Wenger was hounded out, I got in so many arguments with AFC fans that wanted "proven winner" Allegri.
The only thing Allegri has proven is that he can win a poor league with a far superior squad.
As a Milan fan after watching "what happened to Milan" videos for 10 years it's really nice to see same happen to Juve. Finally.
Calling the previous managers “lucky” for over performing their “xpts” is doing them a disservice
Loved this video! Tifo - noticed you guys are doing after-game analysis for the Prem games and they are really insightful. Is it possible to do something like this for the bigger serie matchups (i.e Juve, Roma, Napoli, Milan, Inter, etc)? It would be spectacular to see!
Loved the analysis. As an inter fan, there was one thing missed and that is the beppe moratta effect. It would cool to see the data on that.
Marotta was like the only adult in the room and a lot of fans didn't like him because he was a realist. Then he left and Agnelli&Paratici started this super weird "Galactico Juve" phase. Paratici was a total disaster as a director of football and it's amusing to see how he got this high profile, very well paid job at Tottenham....while elsewhere this summer, Juve are still cleaning up the mess he left behind.
The fun part is that Marotta was sacked because he was against the signing of Cristiano Ronaldo
Juventus began to fall apart when the board decided to replace the historic club insignia with their bland corporate J.... then the club started making ridiculously short sighted decisions in the transfer market. The rest is history.
system managers might be able to generate a load of xG and xPoints, but that doesnt always translate into the stats that decide games
Classic Leeds kit circa 1993-95. I think of Gary Kelly, Brian Deane and Gordon Strachan in this one.
I appreciate the fact that you correctly call them scudetti instead of "scudettos" which I often hear. Also, so far I haven't heard a mispronounced Italian name, two thumbs up!
Its a tough analysis to do but I wish this provided insight on the drop in player quality at a Juventus after 2018.
Small correction (that further hammers your point home): Pirlo was made senior manager before he had coached a single u23 game. He was unveiled as u23 manager just weeks before being promoted to the top job.
I think you're spot on with the assessment that Pirlo was unlucky during his campaign and that sacking him was premature. It seems a lot of games that Juve could have won that year were not won because of unlucky bounces, and the xPoints differential really shows that. I've never been a Juventus fan, but as an AC Milan fan Pirlo will always have a special place in my heart, so imagine how pleased I was when they had an even worse season following his premature departure! Looks like Agnelli could learn a trick or two from Maldini...
I think Conte is hugely overrated. The squad he had at his disposal was the best by a mile, and he always fluked out of europe. Same happened at Inter. The moment things get tougher or the board cant sustain his incredible financial demands, he pouts and leaves.
Inzaghi would have won the title with inter with a squad that lost 150m (lukaku and hakimi), if it wasnt for Radu. While not being a total failure in europe.
That is just disrespecting his league title runs and his coaching overall. Even tho his european competitions record is bad. He built the foundations and structure for Allergi in Juv as well as Inzaghi for Inter… As well as Chelsea for their back 3 style.
He demanded some of the best players at his disposal but which big team doesn’t? There’s expectations you know? Italian teams focus more on league competitions more in recent years anyways.
Lukaku was “average” for United and Hakimi was picked up by Conte as well. He made them to who they are today… You might think he’s overrated but Don’t discredit him bro.
Yeah its the midfield. Been since 16/17 well it was not that good even then, but Pjanic - Khedira were enough to get them to final. After that they have been ignoring it pretty much. Trusted some average players and here we are now. Rabiot, Lemina, Ramsey, Zakaria etc. after Marchisio - Vidal - Pirlo - Pogba yeah. Not guud.
A couple of infos missing : Sarri was sacked mainly because he wasn't " classy" enough according to Juventus' vision ( tracksuit, cigarettes and communication wise) and he never got along with the fan base; Pirlo never actually coached the u23 he was appointed just before his "promotion" to the first team I guess to give him some sort of fake background and it worked I suppose
The XGD metric is slightly flawed as if you smash bad teams 4-0 but then lose to your top competitors by an average of one goal, having a great XGD doesn't always convert neatly into points accumulated. Smashing bad teams but performing badly against the good ones is a really interesting phenomena in football - I call it the Lukaku effect
Great video, twitter algorithm put it on my timeline. I liked data analysis you did, but I've missed one detail to make even better: a CR7 analysis on-pitch. As you've said, Sarri and Pirlo were (expected) better. Did Cristiano helped it? Adding up on the video the Ronaldo's aggregated xG or VAEP score on those seasons could highlight its influence on Juventus "falilure" in the past years, reinforcing the wage point you've talked, if those numbers were bad, or could bring a discussion on Cristiano's good influence on-pitch vs. off-pitch problems genareted, if those numbers were actually good. That said, I still loved the video and I can't wait to watch the other ones on the channel.
Very simple : a lot of complacency, lack of competence and a lot of money wasted to balance the books instead of creating a proper sporting project. And last year they have appointed Allegri who is known for not giving time to youngsters which is what Juventus need in order to do a rebuild
Not much, they fell off after 2017 and in 2021 the Milan clubs caught up to a mediocre juve side
As a die hard Juve fan, this video hurt me so much... by its precision and the way it pertinently summed up the situation
The statistical analysis stuff was nonsensical - but the history was a decent summary
I don't know what "system" could fit Juventus. Every year, they brought in any big name player who is available for free: Ramsey, Rabiot, Pogba etc... It's cheap and seems economic. But you cant expect to achieve big things if you don't spend. Especially if you chose to pursuit a "system manager".
and it backfired because free agents get higher wages and then you can't move them on because of that, since nobody will pay their wages, so they got stuck with deadwood happy to collect their money
There was no plan. The problem was they went for a player you'd add if you're missing one piece in Cristiano, yet you needed to build a new team also
loving this series, really interesting topics
Open to correction - statistics isn't my area. But I feel the expected points model is quite flawed as a metric for determining the overall effectiveness of a manager say.
Game state is a pretty crucial detail that isn't factored in - depending on the scoreline a team will be more offensive or defensive. Pirlo's teams XG is the highest here, but is this because they were often chasing the game having given up the lead by virtue of essentially getting their initial game plan wrong, underestimating opposition, etc. Posting a high XG could be indicative of this.
Yea agree somewhat with this. On the other hand though, Pirlo’s Juve created the most chances in the league that season. More than the champions Inter and the dubbed attacking side of Atalanta. It’s clear he knew how to structure an attack but I do agree that his defense needed some work.
Well the XG being higher during Sarri and Perlo period is attributed to CR7 not them being better really. He scored 101 goals for them in 99 matches. Furthermore, when he left they got back to where they've been.
CR7 was there in Allegri's last season too. But Allegri did not want CR7 because he knew that CR7 would not suit his team. Using XG to compare Allegri, a non systems coach, with Sarri and Pirlo, who are both systems coaches, is not a great method.
@@argablarga Ronaldo didn't suit Sarri and Pirlo's team either because theyre both system based managers, didnt u watch the video?
@@giovanni.g5723 are you responding to my comment? Because we're in agreement from what I can see
@@argablarga it is a great method to compare Allegri, a non systems coach, with Sarri and pirlo, system based coaches, using xG because Ronaldo didn’t suit neither of their systems.
@@giovanni.g5723 no it's not, what you've written is irrelevant, XG has next to nothing to do with Ronaldo. Your comment shows that you don't understand statistical modelling in the least.
I have written a more detailed comment about the XG analysis, look at that and respond.
To call Allegri and Sarri's title winning seasons lucky and Pirlo's 4th place finish as unlucky is so short sighted and also inaccurate.
Guys I was lowkey waiting for a video like this, but why are you always inaccurate when it comes to Italian football?
Ronaldo arrived one year before Allegri got sacked and that makes all the difference! It would have been foolish to chose both Sarri and Ronaldo in the same year, as the latter doesn't suit the style of the former and he struggled quite a bit to make it work (which he still did fairly convincingly but the squad hated him for many extra field reasons). There are even allegations that Allegri wanted Ronaldo out after one years and they had to chose between the two and there's so much more to touch upon. Like how Pirlo was the former manager of the U23... Yeah... For A WEEK. Pirlo was bumped up because he demanded a lower wage and he could be treated as a scapegoat for a season that they would know would end up bad, especially since he lost key players to injuries (Dybala and Sandro and the newly bought Arthur which left him with basically no quality passer in the midfield). Pirlo produced a miracle there but he still was expected to fail, because they needed time to rebuild.
Not looking likely as Bayern are very well ran, but as a bundesliga fan this gives me hope
Inter and AC are huge clubs, the Juve dominance was never going to be permanent.
@@yester9037 these two clubs would not win the Bundesliga the difference is that Bayern are a well-run club
from their European performances, it can be understood that Juve became weak and not that inter and Milan became strong
@@mbappethegoat1559 @mbappethegoat Bayern wins the league because of the huge financial advantage, Dortmund are well run. AC Milan is arguablly a bigger club than Bayern you put them in the same league they won't have the same financial advantage and they would have to share the national talent.
@@yester9037 ac Milan are bigger historically and not better team then bayern and they are nowhere near the elite clubs like real bayern and city
I'm sorry but i really see no hope for the bundes, historically only bvb has been somewhat of a threat to bayern but they are now focused on making money with young players, they're happy being second
It’s a bit of a mixed bag for sure but the good thing is it’s great for Serie A as it is now wide open between Inter and Milan, and Napoli, Roma, Juve are all vying for top 4 spots with Atalanta still playing well with Gasperini. Very refreshing and enjoyable league.
Interesting video. I didn't know any of this.
Being a Non-Old Lady fan I don't remember much since I never used to watch much of their matches but when I first watched Pirlo's team of play and how they were performing... I don't think the blame should have gone upon him for the way they were playing. It's just that the players he had wasn't the best for them to win the scudetto or UCL. Morata kept missing easy open handed chances, Dybala has failed to perform for Juventus for a long time whatever the reason is, Midfield trio of Ramsey, Arthur (the whole swap deal between Barcelona for Pjanic shouldn't have taken place in the first hand which most say. Talented player but Injuries and changing of managers haven't helped him a bit) Rabiot (immature, attitudenal type of player as seen when he was playing for PSG and him then straight put on a 2018 WC stand off list which can be partially blamed because of his mom who acts as his agent), only defense looked good (even though De Ligt was far from that guy from Ajax). So imo, proper goal finishers and better midfielders was only needed which if they would have wanted could have done in their upcoming transfer window instead of sacking pirlo. When you're trying to bring in a change to systematic type of play, it needs time and patience. This can't happen overnight
pirlo s juventus was ronaldo waiting to get the balle, 9 players trying to please him, and Chiesa try to win the game on his own. It is painfully obvious watching juventus and italy and see the difference with and withouth him
So thorough. Really good analysis guys
I love the tevez era very underrated someone who is conte true and true and I think they need someone like that currently
Tevez is definitely a massive conte that's for sure
@@Truffle_Pup 🤣🤣🤣
Chiesa is that player for us now, but he has been injured so long, we have missed him so much! We need more than one player to rely on for that energy and 'grinta' (never say die attitude)
That was what I said, Pirlo did really well! So Idk why some think he did terrible? Maybe since fourth place, but I think Juve to sack Pirlo as head manager was a big mistake, as it looks in your numbers as well. Got to love when does numbers reflects what you see on the pitch!
Great graphic to show the league wins. I think some brighter diagonal line would make it easier to see visually. Nonetheless great work!
So, the takeaway is, they should have either kept Alegri and signed Ronaldo or sacked Alegri and NOT signed Ronaldo and kept faith with Pirlo
Thank you ❤️🤗 great content!
Not everything that is outside of the "expected points" is luck/unluck. If you are generating chances but not winning/scoring, that probably means your players are not as good as they should in scoring, which has nothing to do with luck.
yeah, it's very simplified in the video. Would love to see the causes investigated further, because it can't just be attributed solely to luck.
Sarri won the league in 1920? I knew he was old, but THAT old. Woah.
This reminds me of Alan Partridges explanation of the USA 94 World Cup draw. Unfathomable.
Love the Serie A content!
I think Pirlo (who hadn't coached ANY team at any level before juve, not even the u23 like it's said in the video, sorry for the correction haha) would've worked better without Ronaldo, while Allegri would've worked better with Ronaldo.
Just another of the signs of the front office confusion and poor planning that put juve in this technical situation despite still being by far the richest club in Italy.
The real "victim" here to me is Sarri who was the last who managed to win the league despite a team that was uncoachable for a manager like him and was still sacked ignominiously
In 2018/19 Juventus was everything but lucky. The Scudetto was already won in february, the squad gave up playing after the elimination in the quarter finals in CL, otherwise it would heve easily reached 100 points. Domesticly, the team smashed every opponent. The Pirlo administration, on the other side, put together some good games and many embarassing performance.
I agree with the majority of the video and the data analysis is explained in a great way. I would like to mention that when Allegri left after his second final loss he was already saying/mentioning that players needed to be change/sold. Even in this season hours away from the UEL Semi-Final we are going to rely on Sandro, Cuadrado and Bonucci - Pogba has been a complete mess but that is not up to him. People hate allegri but this season he has managed to stay in T4 (T2) despite the -15 points, is 90 minutes away from a UEL Final and overall has made some progress compared to last season.
I also want to say that if we had Conte, Sarri or Pirlo (maybe) they would not be able to hold the ship as Allegri did and it needs to be said.
You can't fairly compare these managers without also accounting for the players they had available. The talent level has been falling for years and has never really recovered
Agnelli happened, we are in a banter era until somebody does something
🤫🤫🤫🤫🤫
I also think they should've went with Carlo when they got the opportunity after Allegri...That would've really pushed them to having serious chance of winning CL...That guy seriously had some sort of magic in bringing best out of players..Look at Vini and Benzema for example..He said Vini should touch 20 goals mark and Benzema 50 goal marks last season and they ended up completing that...!!
They already had Ancelotti before...and won absolutely nothing. So no, no Ancelotti thanks.
You say the leap in XG suggests the system style of management was working…
Maybe, or maybe they happened to have the greatest goal scorer in the history of football banging goals in :P
Pirlo lacked the one thing you need in order to be the best manager - Luck. And it seems Allegri had it.
Describing conte as a little known manager was a bit weird yeah he was a little known manager at the time but he was a Huge juventus player back in his day
I hope all the Arsenal fans that said they wanted Allegri while they were Arteta out are watching this.
I don't understand why in the first graph, the blue line of XG is much higher in 2018/19 with Allegri than in the following seasons, than in the second graph, the XG goals of that season is sensibly lower than the following...
XG is a joke. A good striker like Benzema destroys the value of that.
Amount of Passes can either mean controlling the game or having no idea to do what to do with the ball.
How are XGs even counted and evaluated? a striker who scores 10 goals, xg is 20, could either have potential or he's just not a good finisher.
Now i wanted to know what juve could do to turn this around and can they really do it rn? Should have been in the video
I guess unfortunately we didn't already reach the bottom. J. Elk... make the stategic decisions for the family. We should ask him. Probably he should "sack" his cousin🐵 nedved🐕 and allegri🦗 and sign a proper Director of Football ( Kalle Rummenigge?) and let him run the team for 3 years at least
I think a missed point is the quality of the squad. Significantly less quality players were brought in along with not the right manager.
As a Juventus fan I can definitely tell you that the problem is the players not the coach.
I mean De Ligt was on a pretty high wage as well but it's much easier to attack Cristiano as well
CR7's salary was almost 4 times De Ligt's salary.
@@argablarga Cr7 also brought in way more money in the club than De Ligt. Sold more t shirts more endorsement deals
@@kobemeriez7860 yeah agreed, but overall, due to Covid the CR7 investment didn't work for Juve.
@@argablarga Yeah that's true
Juventus have also managed to ride those post-Calciopoli benefits right up until they've had to evolve these last 3 years to stay at the top. Allegri benefitted from the brilliant work of Conte and his 352 formation with a well constructed team that could sustain themselves. Juventus as a club also benefitted from having (and owning) their own stadium which Italian bureaucracy regularly bogs down other teams when they try to pursue that road. At present, other teams have caught up and exceeded them. They're a patchwork group of players bought for other managers who are now playing for a manager who doesn't have the benefit of having a clear ideology outside of defensive, negative tactics and who isn't very capable in building a squad or utilizing the excellent youth setup they have. Should've stuck with Pirlo IMO.
you guys are legends
interesting - would be good to see similar articles on other teams - say Man Utd 2012/13 - 2015/16 or Barca 2019 - 2022
Amazing analysis
It's all great but can we look at the underlying numbers?
If they'd have kept Sarri they'd be playing some great football now. Stupid decisions and terrible luck over the years
Precisely, they could have easily won the UCL in 20/21 when the competition was rather weak too.
Fact to add about Pirlo he actually had no experience being a manager prior to the Juve job. He signed to be the U23 manager and then got promoted to the First Team job 9 days later. I wouldn't call a week experience lol. Kind of scummy way to handle a club legend to be honest and it showed that he didn't have the experience to handle such a job.
If juventus will screw del piero they will screw anybody
Think Thomas Frank could do a mega job there
Pirlo's bad luck wears the number 7, vibe killer supremo
Not giving sarri enough time was the start of the downhill for Juve. Had the players trust sarri, I guarantee anyone by now sarri would have a minimum champions league title by now with his style of play. This also includes with cr7 or without cr7
The players did not like Sarri. Bonucci said Sarri's system did not make sense to him. Chiellini was not a fan. Dybala was not happy. Not much anyone can do when the coach has lost the dressing room.
I agree 100%, even CR7 regained his Real Madrid form under him.
It weren’t only Ronaldo… they did also spend 80-90 mil on an Old Higuain
If the both his two predecessors had a significantly higher xP with largely the same squad… maybe what it all says is that Pirlo wasn’t able to get more out of these players?
Wrong analysis - your metrics is highly misleading. Your statement is that Pirlo had a highly attacking team with lots of expected goals. That's a load of BS - the actual game on the field had no attacking intelligence. You should make instead a video - why expected goals is a flawed metrics, and why it needs to be redesigned
Stats is a really bad way to judge this juve side. So much has happened with board, management, covid, attempt to change culture as well. As well as rhe strength in finances and change of culture in both milan teams.
Bet they regretting Pirlo now
Juventus mercato this year being woeful.
Fullback is most lacking over the years .
Midfield also not progressive and technical.
Winger are weak.
Goalkeeper also should be better.
Juventus happily let kulu and bentacur leave for cheap, also sold romero and demiral for penny, let dybala go for free.
Mistake signing like de ligt (high fee, high wages, end up selling lower than the bought him), rabiot and ramsey deal, swap arthur for pjanic, cancelo and danilo swap (danilo is decent but cancelo way better), keep on signing young italian the loan after loan then let them go for nothing.
Worthy of juventus level of player
Vlahovic, chiesa, locatelli.
Di maria and pogba good signing but now injured.
Gatti and bremer need to be proven.
Kostic mysterious signing.
I can say why ronaldo decide to leave juventus because of allegri, the real reason allegri leave in 2019 because of ronaldo.
Allegri is defensive coach, and very boring.
Decision to sacked progressive pirlo for outdated allegri with increase salaries is the worst decision ever.
Now even the squad also look strange and out of place.
I believe juve will stuck at race for top 4 again.
Allegri need to go and whole juventus transfer need to be handle with people that know what they are doing.
This video grossly overutilizes 'Expected goals'. This results are pretty baseless if you understand what 'expected goals' actually measures.
I think juve this year are looking pretty good almost playing a sarri like system. 4 3 3 be good to see when de maria and Chiesa fit
A bit of extra info: sarri's appointment was hugely controversial, owning to the fact that he is a Napoli fan. Juve fans never liked him and despite him winning the league, Sarri didn't gel well with the Non Colorati, both fans and executives. It's HEAVILY rumored that for the next season, Juventus tried to hire Zidane, but the deal didn't come true, thus they went with Pirlo. Do you need proof that Pirlo wasn't the first choice? He was given the managerial role of a youth team at Juventus just days before they announced he would instead be first team boss, odd...
As a juventus fan I strongly believe it’s allegri and his tactics, he inherited a multi-scudetto winning team from conte and once he was able to get his style,philosophy and the players he wanted implemented you saw how terrible we became, sarri should’ve gotten more time and pirlo should’ve never been hired. We’re back to square one with allegri. It’s also the end of and era at juventus with bonucci chiellini they’ll be near impossible to replace
Firing Sarri prevented Ronaldo from ever winning a UCL with Juventus. It was under Sarri that Ronaldo regained his Real Madrid form, and it was only the away goals rule, questionable refereeing decisions, and a Dybala injury that prevented them from advancing further in the UCL.
Sarri never had a chance to offload the leftover Allegriball players or sign players that could actually fit his system. No point in crying over spilt milk, but I'll never stop regretting what could have been were it not for terrible upper management.
Were Pirlo's Juve flat track bullies? Creating high xG against lesser teams?
Great video but just one critique. I'm not sure I buy your argument on Ronaldo. Bringing him in on high wages doesn't raise the wages of the other players and therefore doesn't make it "a more comfortable place". Kind of a silly argument. Wages were high before Ronaldo which DOES make it difficult to sell players, but Ronaldo had nothing to do with that. Now as far as his effect on the field that's a different story. He's the opposite of a system player and needs a less system oriented approach like what PSG or Real have.