2020 WM Sustainability Forum - Peter Zeihan
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- čas přidán 3. 06. 2024
- In 2020, WM was proud to have hosted so many brilliant thought leaders on one stage. This video features the Founder of Zeihan on Geopolitics, Peter Zeihan. Peter is a geopolitical strategist, which is a fancy way of saying he helps people understand how the world works. Peter combines an expert understanding of demography, economics, energy, politics, technology, and security to help clients best prepare for an uncertain future.
Over the course of his career, Peter has worked for the US State Department in Australia, the DC think tank community, and helped develop the analytical models for Stratfor, one of the world’s premier private intelligence companies. Peter founded his own firm - Zeihan on Geopolitics - in 2012 in order to provide a select group of clients with direct, custom analytical products. Today those clients represent a vast array of sectors including energy majors, financial institutions, business associations, agricultural interests, universities and the U.S. military.
With a keen eye toward what will drive tomorrow’s headlines, his irreverent approach transforms topics that are normally dense and heavy into accessible, relevant takeaways for audiences of all types.
Peter is a critically-acclaimed author whose first two books - The Accidental Superpower and The Absent Superpower - have been recommended by Mitt Romney, Fareed Zakaria and Ian Bremmer. His forthcoming third title, Disunited Nations: The Scramble for Power in an Ungoverned World will be available late-2019.
For more information on the Sustainability Forum and all of Waste Management's green initiatives, please visit our website, subscribe to this channel and follow Waste Management on Social Media.
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#SustainForum #RecycleRight - Sport
when he said " if you going to borrow, DO IT NOW", HE WAS SPOT ON. Mr. Zeihan is one of the best analyst.
I wish I saw the lecture back then
He does so at - czcams.com/video/jT6HFCAFDgU/video.html
His point about the next recession not starting from a financial collapse was spot on lol
And that we would react poorly to the next slap in the face.
@@zeanamush And now we are dick slapped in the face with Was as well.
This didn’t age well either, now we’re on the brink of nuclear war.
And two years later it's still spot on. Even with the unexpected pandemic, the supply chain issues was on point.
I feel like we're now financially collapsing.
For those who have seen some Zeihan presentations, this one has quite some new slides and information. Starting at about 25:45 is when that begins.
Thanks! :)
I take issue with a LOT of what he says about renewables though. Ex 27:20 … Putting solar over fields does make sense. Some plants *like* being shaded and protected from the sun; and even for those that dont: dual land use doesnt get you 100% agro +100% solar, you get maybe 60% solar + 60…90 % agro which in sum is still more than before. Only complication is engineering (youve got to adjust your machinery & put solar panels on longer stilts) … he's also dead wrong about Solar in Germany at 26:30 . Emissions from electricity production have been falling in Germany by idk 20% or so during the last 20 years. - And it starts to become economical - some PV plants are being constructed right now that are commercially viable via PPA.
(and yes solar potential in Germany, in comparison to other places, *is* hideous … so he has an important point, but i feel he's simplifying the world too much here by speaking in absolutes)
omg and at 30:00 … Germany has been burning lignite since forever (and its being reduced more and more). He makes it sound like the Germans got to increase lignite mining in response to offset the renewables craze … which couldnt be further from the truth.
Still, as a first approximation to how the world works - and one that catches in the brain and stays there! - his presentation is gold.
And an awesome finish. I still love that guy. Ok. sorry for attaching my rants on your comment, that was the last one.
"We are due."
Prophetic words.
Go on boss take a day off.
I'm here from the future to tell you that we are STILL dealing with COVID (China is shut down) and Russia invaded Ukraine a month ago. China is gearing up for Taiwan. Bear yourselves. 😭
@@headoverheels88 The great reset is here. Birth rates will plummet and population decline starts. Debt, poor mental health, pride and arrogance will keep the sheeple in line. "Why let a good crisis go to waste? "
Gotta give Peter a ton of credit..he takes really dry material and makes it easy to digest, and even makes it entertaining. Great job Peter, I've already got my pre order for the new book!
@@ErnestoLopez-kr8zl This is a great forum to contest his findings. I would like to hear your rebuttal, Ernesto. We are all here to learn. Whatya got?
@@oconnaugh OMG Peter !! czcams.com/video/AVPkoGNqX-8/video.html
@@oconnaugh He talk about Germany not decreasing its emissions despite putting a lot of solar, but the reality is that Germany closed its nuclear plants and replaced them with coal. Solar did help decrease Germany emission, it is just still not a big part of their energy consumption and was completely cancelled out by stupid anti-nuclear decisions, solar didn't replace, coal, it replaced nuclear at best and nuclear is a very low emission technology. He also didn't touch on nuclear power and its different advancements and how that can power all countries. He's just a Xer with a boomer mentaility and completely Republican partisan selectively choosing its data. Talking about how the president were clown and only saying bush jr. was too concentrated on a region is just so retarded, him getting the US into wars that cost trillions is the dumbest shit and he didn't even over concentrate on one region, he actually did a lot of soft diplomacy around Africa with charities and helping reduce aids, him reducing the complete disaster of the bush presidency to "too concentrated" just show he insanely biased he is and Obama did a lot of good internationally to recover the US' relation with other countries after the disaster that was Bush, if Obama didn't go talk to congress and shit it may have been because he was actually busy doing his job elsewhere.
Everything he says about Millennial is bullshit, the big consumers are old people, they are the ones with capital and disposable income, young people haven't had jobs that pay as much as boomers did, even when the boomers retire and Millennial can take their job it pay less, they haven't been able to accumulate capital at the same rate as the older generations because the housing market is already occupied by the boomers with more capital. It's just a bunch of lazy stereotypes based on silicon valley. The way he talk about trade partners is also bullshit with the export and show his complete lack of economic sense or him just being biased and wilfully misrepresenting things. The US has more export to Canada than Canada has to the US but it's pretty equal, but this is kind of irrelevant. You pay what is beneficial, if making shit in your own country was cheaper and profitable you would, it being more costly and you can't turn a profit just mean you can produce something else and buy from other people for cheaper, that's the whole point of free trade. Not having to produce everything means you can specialize and produce something else more efficiently and buy the rest for cheaper making a net positive. The economy is not a zero sum game always with a winner and a loser, it's a win-win relationship.
Even if China export way more to the US the US still benefit from it with cheaper products and freeing the workforce to be much more efficient producing other things. This bring another one of his stupid points, what would happen if the US didn't police international water and let China sink, well, that's just plain dumb, China sell a lot to every countries, they all benefit from them selling, even without the US, international waters would still be pretty peaceful and no-one would dare attack China that isn't some lowly pirates which the Chinese navy can easily take care of, you don't need a super carrier to do that. The biggest trading partner of China is Japan and the biggest trading partner of Japan is China, they wouldn't shoot each other and if they did Japan would be steam-rolled without the US helping. Also, if China couldn't trade, the US would be in deep shit with everything being made in China.
Nice. Too bad no Q&A.
Not sure about y'all, but I can listen to this guy all day.
Damn this guy pours American exceptionalism out of all his holes
He's a deep state shill. His presentations are entertaining but extremely superficial. All generalizations and assertions with little backing and no depth. Not an academic but rather a salesman.
America is exceptional by geography. He isn't talking about the hollywood meme culture and mentality derived from it. He is talking facts and realities ideological lunatics try to ignore and make go away by wishful thinking. This is a view at the bottom of the abyss for humanity. But I understand you certainly don't man up to face and fix it. What is your specific solution to a future for your children? He just put a complete and concise picture todays world affairs as they are on the table.
I don't agree that the US can isolate itself from global crisis that well. The US has to retain global control of the oceans with a population lacking the political will to back that. The US economy is a high tech exporter to sustain their promise of wealth aka as American Dream. It also has a lot of flyover territory highly sensitive to climate crisis natural disasters disrupting agriculture. There is nothing preventing the US from civil wars, secession and a split into East and West coast. There is no geopolitical connection between these two entities. There is no cultural connection between bible belt and the East and West coast. A breakup in a deep economic and climate crisis induced agronomic crisis is more likely than not. Other cultures are better prepared to endure periods of hardship and not fall apart. Europe would respond with tighter integration into a a more effective superstate to defend and ensure access to markets and raw materials rather than fall apart for eg.
The real danger is nuclear conflict between India and Pakistan. Thing even the US can't stay out of even if they highly isolationist desired so. The fallout would be nuclear winter. Even the tensions would cost millions in jobs a drag other nations like China into the economical abyss. This does chain react on Wall Street driving US pensions and is felt by any of the Boomers about to retire. People that dominate the vote. This is just blunt application of facts and logic tio the facts of maps and figures. You can only chose to be ignorant of maps, facts, figures and math here to not scratch your had searching for a working future world order keeping economy alive, food on tables and climate habitable for 4 to 8 billion people. It is a matter how many fall of the global cart within a decade. Russia as a wheat exporter just shipped tons of grain out of Ukraine for a evil geopolitical reason. There is already stressed out people playing with matches near this tinderbox. People have tried to ignore geopolitics for 3 decades and now the sheat is hitting the fan. Your children are in it together with you. This will affect you in many less than good ways. There is no escape and just cry & shield your eyes with your hands like a child changes nothing for the better. It is not god making thing better, it is the brains, ideas, hands and feed of a billion of ant like human activities that does. You can work to make the world a safe place or a nightmare. Your choice of mindset.
Wow, I’m actually scared and excited for the future after watching this. This was over 2 years ago and so much of what he said is becoming reality. Energy issues, food issues, issues in China, war in Europe, possible war in Asia, US pulling back, de globalization, etc. I really hope people way smarter than me are working on a solution before the world tears itself apart. I really hadn’t stopped to think about the demographics of a country and how it could affect them. Another good forecaster is George Friedman. Also Scott R. Can’t remember his last name who worked in China for 40plus years gives good insight into the problems China faces which add to what Peter and George forecast.
You hit it on the head!
Yeah, no kidding.
The only way to turn around a population bust is for women to stop going to college (it ruins them mentally) and we start marrying younger and become proud of having and raising children again.
@@redshead8010 College(And k-12) ruins most people mentally, it's teaches people that a awful game of simon says that leaves people with no idea how to actually understand something is an "Education" and that that they understand things they do not. It's terrible on the human psyche
I am from Australia and we are in Asia. We need good leadership to manage a rising China but we are going to need great leadership to deal with a falling China.
Zeihan: 34:29 "The next recession probably will not be triggered by a financial problem."
Corona: "Hello there!"
Zeihan: "General Corona!"
Muhlis Sarıyer with his eyes glued to the talking heads on his TV: "Yes, please educate me further on what next i should do with my life"
"..and we....are....due...." COVID: You forgot to knock on wood.
It's a shame he forgot his petrochemicals slide, far too many people are lacking awareness of just how much of our industrial inputs are petrochemical in origin.
And shale is there.
19:20
I am from and currently living in Bismarck ND. And I approve this message.
Go U Mary!
First time i've seen Peter Zeihan. Love this guy!
You guys skipped my house last week and my can is full! Come get my trash!
Wow! Peter is like another Ernest Becker but with different fields of study. So glad I found this.
What a wonderful audience!
Wonderful speaker... Always entertaining with facts as well 😂🤣
It's so fascinating watching smart people predict the future just months before Covid-19 and 2020.
interested to see how some of the predictions in his work play out in the global stage in 2022 as things unfold
Amazing talk. I clearly recommend to watch this if you want to understand anything about our world today.
He definitely gives you something to think about~
Another amazing one from Peter
This is one of the most underrated videos on youtube, EVER!!!
aaaaaaand this was the last time this many people could congregate in a single room for a year, if not years lol
Honestly I think this is his best presentation as it's concise and it shows how it matters.
Technically nothing new but.. it's prescient.
Concise and extremely shallow.
@@johns512 He has 40 minutes.
@@carylhalfwassen8555 40 minutes to paint a narrative. Zeihan is a tool for neocons and the WEF globalist cabal. I would suggest looking into more sources before concluding that his views are held by people and groups outside of the beltway.
@@johns512 read the books this is more or less a summary of his argument.
I've long felt that one more great wave of innovation with superb quality will bring the world to a steady state where then we can live well with really meaningful lives and culture that reflects Gods will. Many thanks.
I am absolutely addicted ti Mr. Zelhan's videos. It is almost like drinking from a fire hose. However , He ignored the elephant in the room on clean energy. Nuclear power is the go to solution for abundant green energy to power an industrialized nation, It is carbon free. It takes up only a small space to produce large amounts of energy. It does not require a large infrastructure to deliver fuel. You can locate it close to your load centers. Nuclear power is the safest source of energy by a wide margin. It is not dependent on regional climate to produce energy. Modern designs are designed to shut them selves down with passive safety systems in the event of emergency. The trend in future reactor design is smaller standardized plants. Thorium fuel cycle reactors are on the horizon with benefits of it's own,
When a hostile enemy force invades and bombs any/all nuclear power plants as a war tactic to defeat the nation invaded, then nuclear power plants can become threats to life itself.
@@b4liberty543 A reply to your comment has two parts, one for existing plants and another for new passive shutdown nuclear designs. Existing) plants require on site emergency generators to power plant equipment long enough to achieve cold shutdown. The containment is not the problem they are designed to withstand a direct impact from a jet airliner. Managing the cooling required after an unplanned unit trip is the main problem. With advance notice a plant could likely be shut down. Going forward, the advocacy for nuclear would be centered on new designs that will safely shut down without outside intervention. The plant operator's input would not be required to safely shut the plant down. I believe, plants with passive safety features would address your concerns. Expansion of generation capacity is required to support an electric economy. Nuclear provides a caebon free safe option. Wind and solar is the darling of environmentalists. The hard truth is that you need approximately 80% or more reserve power to back up renewable energy resources . Failure to do that runs the risk of repeating the outages in Texas that resulted in the death of people because back up power wasn't available at any price. the "green new deal" Fervor to trash our existing power supply infrastructure without a workable replacement is economic suicide or worse. A working economy must have affordable energy to survive. failure to do so would push millions of families into poverty. It will be far better to develop renewables to a point it makes economic sense to include it into the energy mix.
Environmentalists hate nuclear energy because the electricity created with it increases mans power to change their new/old god, nature. These mystics worship an unchanged nature, including an unchanged climate, free from allegedly evil man. They are anti-humanists. They evade mans survival need in changing destructive nature into a human environment. See Lovins, Erlich, Rifkin. The problem is morality, not technology.
Fossil Future-Alex Epstein
It's also like 10yrs to get a plant operational, which is too late according to him.
@@s0cks1985 Point well taken for existing plants, even then the lengthy construction times were caused by overzealous NRC regulators. The future of Nuclear is in standardized design modular plants with capacities in the 400 to 500 mW range. The era of 800mW plus one-of design plants is over. All that is missing is the political will to do so.
He is fun to listen too.
Insightful and entertaining at the same time - a rare combination. Congratulations.
What about nUclear?
India invested a lot in that as they cant use many other types of green tech.
P.S. Love Peter Zeihan, he's great and deserves more attention.
that ending was.....inspiring
Come now. No mention of nuclear energy? It’s the solution to most of the problems he’s stated.
It's a solid solution to climate issues but it's not applicable or exportable in a world of geopolitical and societal instability. In a world without the order and with constant war like he describes, countries will constantly come and go. There will be constant insurgencies and various conflicting "governments" in a lot of places. Introducing nuclear energy into equation will create unbelievable mess even if technologies are not conducive to weapon proliferation. Just dirty bombs out of nuclear material would be disastrous.
But to be honest in such a world America will probably be jolted back into maintaining the order by some sort of a nuclear scare when either conflicting sides have nuclear exchanges or when any side drawing a short straw in a conflict decides to covertly and deniably manipulate America into re-engagement probably by letting some nuclear devices roam loose and be used by some sort of extremists.
Unfortunately, this conference is not on nuclear energy. Sustainable energy solution. I am in UK I guess I shouldn't go solar. Will start investigating wind turbines for my garden! May be...
Bringing up nuclear power in a conversation with an environmentalist about reducing carbon emissions elicits the exact same responses as brining up birth control in a conversation with an evangelical about reducing teenage pregnancy. Anything other then wind and solar is as sacrilegious as anything other then abstinence only sex ed.
@@LikeATreeOnAMountain, have been learning about Thorium reactors looks so much safer.
@@hauuau Someone was paying attention
ready for new book
He's back
He always says that he will make fun of the Millenials, but he never really does...I think he likes us...probably...
@rick rolling As a millennial we do have some strong suits and some weak ones. I will go to my death bed though cringing at boomers. Boomers screwed everything up for everyone after them.
Millennials are in the on deck circle.
Millenials are less problematic than Boomer ideologies and voting power.
@@15walkeen though I still believe that if they didn't we would have done it ourselves.
Quite educational and entertaining as well. Great one!
I came to watch this video not knowing what it'll be about exactly, and now i'm expecting the most exciting century in human history.
Exciting and sad. You posted this comment 7 months ago, but as I'm writing Russia just invaded Ukraine. It's getting dark.
You obviously live in th US..... :)))))))))))))))))))))))))))
Geopolitical strategist giving a speech at my garbage company?
Interesting.
:)
Gotta pay the bills somehow
Deltasword lmaoo environmental forum garbage company
Nobody in their right mind would actually employ him as a geopolitical strategist
This wasn't the video I thought it was, but was happily surprised by the content.
anyone know where I can find more information on the private credit curve graph at 37:00 ?
Seriously an amazing talk!
Wow this is so amazing. Being so knowledgeable in so many fields of study and having them fully integrated and thoroughly applied to the issues of the world. Wonderful.
I'm not sure if there is anyone better than Peter Z at explaining geopolitics to the masses in a digestible form.
Great presentation.
That was a dam interesting talk!
The hero generation gave the boomers a golden age. The boomers gave millennials the bill.
ho ho ho hoink hoink hoink
Silent Generation gave us critical theory (parent ideology of critical race theory), ethno-grievance politics, mass immigration, the beginnings of feminism, & military Industrial complex. All adopted by Boomers.
This may be far easier than I originally thought. Resolving the culture war in America will go a LONG way towards resolving the global culture war. A domino effect.
I love you Peter.
Absolutely brilliant. Yet Peter Zeihan misses the potential modern nuclear energy has in disrupting his view of the world. The availability of energy is certainly the key to further development in an ageing world, but the availability of nuclear power plants that are safe, emission-free, produce no waste, but cheap and abundant power as well as synthetic fuel from uranium and thorium would change the equation Peter depicts dramatically. Are there technological candidates out there that could do all of this? There are, so I'm not betting on Peter's scenario to materialize.
But not everyone has the technological know how for nuclear. And not everyone has the morals to do it right (read-corruption)
And geothermal...
I agree
He misses technological innovation.
Just like Mersheimer.
That is the key and you can't make predictions because tech breakthroughs can't be predicted .
If we could analyze populations demographics thru millennials they go up and the go down. Doesn't mean it's end of the world.
It's like making analysis before the discovery of fire. And then we discovered fire and everything changed.
He also missed out hydroelectric, but I don't know how much of a difference that makes.
Still a Peter fan ... but, I don’t see explanation on this oil map for Alaskan and “Indonesian” area oil sources.
It was there, but a pretty quick blip. The point is that those sources aren't changing; the maps were showing change, not static volume.
Great session
Great talk thanks for sharing 😊
Molten Salt Thorium Reactors, Baby!
L.A. Mottern Thorium is concentrated in India and Brazil. Doesn’t solve shit. India is harder to invade than Arabia
@@Bobelponge123 Do your homework. we have a buttload of it here stored out west as a Hazardous byproduct of mining etc.
@@Bobelponge123 China actually has the most. Just sayin.
@@Bobelponge123
Country Reserves
India 963,000
United States 440,000
Australia 300,000
Canada 100,000
South Africa 35,000
Brazil 16,000
Malaysia 4,500
Other Countries 90,000
Love this guy, can't get anymore based.
Bolaji Windapo based
I used to think that, before I saw him buy every CNN narrative about Covid, lol. To be fair, Peter was probably one of the influencers bribed to give the narrative credence and panic the gullible.
@@classicalethics2053 That makes him even more credible.
@@A122345z He screamed fire in a crowded theater. He lied and stoked unreasoning panic to manipulate the gullible and to help corporations to exploit and hurt people. History will look back at his behavior and future generations will not look kindly on his unethical behavior.
This Forum took place just a few days prior to Covid's impact beginning to happen. Thus it's almost quaint to see the predictions made about the future economics and world affairs contrasted to how things are now.
Phosphorus will run out in 50-100 years. An non-renewable resource necessary for global agriculture. Russia and Belarus stopped exports to Europe. Canada supplies the US. EU will comply with the east or they'll freeze and starve next winter.
Like the US energy independence?
Peter Zeihan is for me very similar to Dr. John Campbell in that both have come to massive CZcams prominence due to global situations and have credibility in their career and contemporary insight as the current situation develops.
"we are due"
f*cking yup
Canada didn't burn down the US capital. The British troops were from Europe, fresh from fighting Napoleon. Canadians fought well in the war of 1812, but they had no desire to come south.
Lol, must be a revisionist yank making those comments... 4 invasions, all repulsed, including modern Niagara Falls. Yes, it was Canada. The "british" loyalists stayed... it was retaliatory for the burning of York... aka Toronto. Get your "facts" checked...
The Canuck is triggered
False information, the Canadians did in fact burn it.
john q public shut up canuck before four of us melt all your igloos and burn your maple trees
very good speaker, information was very good, positions he holds are illuminating
Yay! More Peter Z for me!
I had no idea that Geohell standup was a thing.
Another great presentation. Here he goes over the same general themes but shortens the background history components significantly (hardly mentioned USA geography this talk) while adding some new information for current times and events. If you want that background info either watch 2015-2018 presentations by him or read his book Accidental Superpower.
In terms of what you discuss here, what do you predict will be the stability of the cost structure for a commodity like natural gas as its risk for acting as a contaminant of ground water supply systems and watersheds is factored into its cost structure by the insurance industry and the emerging ESG 500 / social and environmental impact bond markets?
Can someone explain to me the Value-Added Manufacturing bit? What does the number indicate? He says "total value added manufacturing" and "volume" but what are those individual units really? And what does an inward arrow indicate? Does the center nation depend on the outer nation for manufacturing parts and is that dependence correlated to the number?
Yup. And it depends upon the item being created. So for a car you need something like 30000 parts to make a car and if you miss one part then you dont have a car. For other items it's not as complex and for some goods such as iPhones they can be resourced back to North America
I'm a big BIG Peter Zeihan fan, but every presentation for the past 3 years has been the same exact thing! Why is WasteManagement paying this guy? Just play his last one on a projector for free lol
The infographics change with each presentation to reflect current data.
Unlike the liberal media, Peter stays consistent with his research results. That's probably why it doesn't change very much.
Presentations like this lend themselves to consistency as the vast majority of listeners don't know who he is when he starts.
He has to explain the same fundamental concept over and over. He can't get around it. So he explains the fundamentals every video, and then at the end he makes it relevant for the audience.
Thanks for saving me 45 minutes.
Watching this in May 2022, very accurate and the “spook” happened end February 22
I want to see the 2022 update.
2 years on he seems bang on about the energy topic
Every time I watch one of his presentations I can't help thinking "It can't possibly go down as bad and as hard as he is saying" but then I back up and look at the numbers. If those numbers/stats are right, then so is he. With a China that dependent on oil this current disruption in Ukraine and the oil disruptions is going to make things horrific.
He is not saying it is bad for the west. It will be bad for China and Russia.
They are actually buying cheaper Russian oil now. Besides there is still LNG.
It's the US which will collapse, his ideas are right but it's the opposite!
"We are due for a crisis."
Literally one month later, the world shuts down. 2 years later, we're still reeling. Oh and those zones of conflicts? Russia-Ukraine. Oh God things are gonna more dark, aren't they?
Yeah, sounds like things are going to get more insane for a while and many of his predictions have started becoming true for a while now.
Not all of it is that bleak. Offshore wind doesn't look to be included. 2 m/s tidal power isn't. Solar Power not economical in Germany? People make a lot of money on it over here. At first home owners reduce their own consumption versus the grid sales price, not the utilities purchase price. Next MW solar farms use industry rooftops and patches of land not used for agriculture. Their ROI is against what utilities would charge them. The difference is local decentralized vs centralized grid market models. There is many high margin agricultural products growing in shadows of solar panels as well like berries or animals resting in their shade. Options like reforestation in Africa and better yields of overgrazed Savanna regions is also not projected. Does not really impact the bombs and triggers of geopolitics mentioned in this talk today that much. The next 5 to 10 years will see some insane political madness and be ultra harsh for people on the globe. Calling the Pandemic a Great Reset is a joke and does skirt all the issues ignored by Boomers trying to reap their lavish pensions. Humanity needs to get it's act together or spin into a death spiral of global collapse of society as predicted by Club Of Rome planetary economic resource models. The good thing is the world will not overpopulate. Population growth stopped already. The Boomers just fall prey to their delusions and leave behind a terrible mess. Did you expect differently?
Another great presentation. Too bad the front end was clipped.
Good thinking.
Why no mention of thorium reactors?
Nuclear is very expensive at the onset especially when compared to natural gas.
Perhaps because they are vaporware?
@@SuperDrainBamage i always suspected that...any hard facts?
@@redcoltken none. I am just going off the fact that 10 years ago it was all the rage with India and China building experimental reactors, but since it has all gone remarkably quiet. I am not basing my assessment from what I have read, but from what I haven't.
@@SuperDrainBamage a bit of rare light on the youtube comments! Thank you.
Great Presentation,
~28:20 not true, left out "nuclear". ..
LFTR is needed now (consumes waste), Fusion is a future ambition.
I agree I kept waiting for him to say advanced nuclear and he never did. This makes me question the rest of his talk. Advanced nuclear is the only technology that can replace fossil fuel energy in all its forms, not just electricity.
@@chapter4travels The problem is that many countries are not mature enough to handle or maintain a nuclear power plant.
Nuclear is very expensive, takes a long time to build out capacity, politically unfeasible (look at Germany and much of Europe), and the uranium comes from geopolitically risky regions.
Hi@@electronworld4996, only in the US because of hysterical environmentalists who don't propose a better solution. Yes look at Germany, their Wind & Solar initiative has resulted in energy prices that are triple those of France next-door which went all out nuclear. See 26:30
It's a disproportionate burden on the poor so some snobby politicians can feel good about themselves... nuclear is the greenest power we have currently for large scale production.
this guy is good!
Wow this was a prescient analysis a future events. All came true
If you want to feel good our future ,about a US economy that presently has a debt to GDP ratio of around 102%, of a Fed that is pumping out trillions more of worthless paper to prop up an economy where 40% of the population depends on some form of government assistance to just survive, where as insane response to a virus that has at best a .04% death rate (mostly among the elderly and the infirm) has all but destroyed an independent middle class, I would love listening to this guy too. He is probably right that none of the other economic/geopolitical players are in any better shape. He is right that enormous defence budget does give us a decided strategic advantage, which is handy since our foreign policy right now looks to be on a collision course with China and Russia and our tradition allies seem both weak and unenthusiastic. There are a lot of missing elements in this presentation, just like there is a lot of missing money in our treasury (21 trillion so far documented ) which is why the government has stopped reporting both M3 and now M2 money supply figures and audits have gone dark (FASAB 56).
18:30 Sakhalin is not Japanese, Peter.
Томас Андерсон it will be by tommorow 10:57 EST
Томас Андерсон Zeihan is a Japanese Nationalist. ;)
No, but really, I won’t at all be surprised if Japan takes Shakalin and large parts of Eastern Siberia in the next century, too many resources, and climate change would make more of the land actually habitable. Russia wouldn’t be able to defend from it other than by nuking Japan (assuming Japan lacks nukes, which it’s been itching to do)
I wonder if some offshore wind production schemes could change that ideal renewables within 1k miles of people map. Its what the UK and Denmark are doing I think even though they're already good bc of wind.
What does he mean by the 'cost of capital'? Does it mean things will be more expensive or does it mean that interest rates will go up i.e the value of money will go up? Please clarify it to me if you can.
Cost of capital means the ability to raise money to invest in that nation.
Australia is looking pretty good on those maps but no mention??
very few dots in australia
Big Rooster Australia is China’s testing ground to try to undermine democracy. Africa is China’s China aka Colony.
They have to worry about the Gundabad orcs from those islands west of them. They don't export anything nice.
Small population, geopolitically disengaged, no real strategic resources apart from marginally cheaper commodity iron and coal. Absolutely drowning in debt. Australia should remain a great place to live, but is unlikely to be geopolitically significant.
ThatGuy I agree with a lot of what you said. Except that most of the debt over there is private not government debt. Australia doesn’t have the military or population tho to be a world power. However I think it can be a greater pacific regional one. They have not bad demographics, a large agricultural region, plenty of valuable resources( iron, uranium, coal, bit of rare earth, no oil tho) and they are in pretty good spot geographically to be south east Asia’s breadbasket too.
If you can't use solar and you can use wind and you can't use oil... => "coal" - what about nuclear?
It is a political non starter for most of the world and comes with its own problems most notably waste disposal which most first world countries have issues with. Could you imagine Congo, Greece or Eritrea responsibly handling nuclear waste?
@@texasforever7887 Yes - they can sell the waste to the Soviets ... RUSSIA!!!!!
Noble Tarkan Good luck getting Uranium.
@@texasforever7887 Thank you, why do supporters of nuclear so easily gloss over the waste issue?
Always interesting and this talk is particularly so for being pre-covid and pre-Ukraine. I think the overarching predictions have not changed… and if I’m not mistaken Ukraine falls squarely in the checkered regions that he is particularly concerned about.
And so doesn't Taiwan,
Brazil can generate energy (it has offshore oil fields) or buy it from its neighborhood (Venezuela, Bolivia ans Argentina).
He left out nuclear in his overview of energy sources
Yup he did, nuclear could be vital. Also, Tesla, the company he seeks already exists. Electric cars, trucks, solar roofs and energy storage.
Here's some irony for you: recall how Zeihan pointed out that Germany, after spending 2,000,000,000,000 Euros on "Green Tech" was now resorting to burning lignite, the dirtiest of dirty energy, because they couldn't produce enough energy from green tech? A decade ago, they were producing 23% of their energy from nuclear. But all of the Green Weinies were up in arms that they had nuclear plants. Then Fukishima happened, and even the government freaked out. They immediately shut down their 7 oldest plants, and announced that the last German nuclear plant would be closed by 2022.
So, here they are, burning the nastiest coal possible, spewing tons of carbon, because instead of doubling down on nuclear when their Green fantasies didn't pan out, they went the other way and abandoned nuclear.
www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-13592208
I agree I kept waiting for him to say advanced nuclear and he never did. This makes me question the rest of his talk. Advanced nuclear is the only technology that can replace fossil fuel energy in all its forms, not just electricity.
Greg White same here, I kept thinking “ok now he’s going to say nuclear...” nope. He’s too smart to have simply forgotten it, so I can only conclude the omission was intentional. I believe, as does Rick Rule and other commentators I follow, that uranium is 1-2 years away from a renaissance.
RickinICT at some point uranium will become too cheap not to use as an energy source. Quite the riot that Germany thought it was a viable candidate for solar power. A sunny climate it is not.
I could not watch this because of that tie....so instead I read all the comments.
So dumb
2 years later this is all making sense today..
what happened to the beginning?
What resource do solar panels produce beside electricity? ... SHADE.
Leverage solar by, not shading nature's perfect solar collectors, ( meadows, pastures), and put that shade to good use. Shade parking lots and air conditioned buildings in the sunbelt.
They could also be used for rainwater catchment
He was right!
Pandemic hits the VERY NEXT MONTH!
Wow. I listened to this years ago, I bought my home early, it has now doubled in value to the point where even if I sold I'd never get somethibg similar. I am very fortunate. Most people my age cannot buy homes, I was 26.
I know. Glad I got my mortgages when I did. Prices now are just absurd.
Market is too high. I can build 2 or 3 houses for the price you get for one on the market. Builders knows what’s coming and ppl are buying like fools
When Zeihan said, "We are due," he was again prescient, for SARS-Covid-19 shortly thereafter became the shock that he was expecting.
Same speech every year, word for word. More people are watching your online content then the people in the room.
Become the change. It’s cause it’s true lol
Interesting that the waste management company posted this.
I rewatch this episode like 4-8 times a week for the last 5 months. And it’s like drinking the fountain of knowledge and comforting since Peter hasn’t been wrong 🥴💕
Very insightful. That.saod, i don't understand.why nearly everyone skips over hydro electric.
Very entertaining as usual..however there is a lot of inaccurate data presented....which like Climate change models can lead to inaccurate and exaggerated conclusions.
This is the first time i've heard Peter expand on the green energy aspect of his talks. It's a scary proposition that the one country that doesn't need green energy as much as others will be one of the few viable countries that need to develop the technology and produce it. It's as if the world will look the Americans and we will simply shrug.
The green energy technology needed won't come from the US, it will come from Asia with American technology with American companies. It looks like Thorcon power will be the first with its floating molten salt nuclear reactors.
Nuclear ☢️
nice!
Why not build a thorium molten salt reactor? You get molybdenum 99 for cancer diagnostics research and therapies. You get Xena on for Nassau, for interstellar space travel. The excess heat can be used for water desalinization and petroleum distillate manufacturing.