Keynote - Peter Zeihan - 2019
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- čas přidán 9. 09. 2019
- “At the Edge of Disorder”
Peter Zeihan is a geopolitical strategist, which is a fancy way of saying he helps people understand how the world works. Peter combines an expert understanding of demography, economics, energy, politics, technology, and security to help clients best prepare for an uncertain future. With a keen eye toward what will drive tomorrow’s headlines, his irreverent approach transforms topics that are normally dense and heavy into accessible, relevant takeaways for audiences of all types.
"It's been a while since 9/11, we're due for another shock." Man was he right there.
This has aged well!
He also said in 2019 - the cost of capital will quadruple in the next 4 years. Dude literally is a geopolitical Nostradamus.
Zeihan: "We are due for another shock"
This guy is a prophet
Alex Chen maybe a couple shocks...
IKR
We should be wary of people like Peter. They're popular within the first 10-20 years of their predictions because it's not that hard to predict the near future.
But when their bolder claims never come to pass, they're discredited and we move onto the next person predicting the end of the world in 10-20 years.
In the 80s, George Friedman, Zeihan's former boss, predicted a US-Japan conflict and failed to predict the fall of the Soviet Union. 20 years later he predicted the fracturing of Russia by 2020 and the complete collapse and dissolution of China by 2030.
Zeihan, on the other hand, in his books and blog posts, none of his wild claims cite works from any studies or findings from other experts in the field. In academia, the bolder the claim the higher the burden of proof. That logic would imply that his books would have a truly massive bibliography. The Accidental Superpower doesn't have a bibliography.
Zeihan gets away with this because he claims that he's an expert in 6 fields. His website says "Peter combines expert understanding of demography, economics, energy, politics, technology, and security to help clients best prepare for an uncertain future." That's A LOT of areas to be an expert in, quite frankly. He doesn't cite anything but, don't worry, Zeihan knows what he's talking about so we should trust him. This is, of course, a logical fallacy called "argument from authority". It's a well known fallacy and it's often associated with bold or even miraculous claims.
@@Adrian-rb4qp What specific claims has he made that you would take exception to? I’m not trying to be argumentative because I also find the presumption a tall order: that one man can know specific details about things that will or won’t happen, even when based on tectonic global and demographic trends.
What would be one of the wild claims? I’ve followed his analyses since the STRATFOR days, so I’m familiar with his general approach to geopolitics and many of the assertions.
@@LRRPFco52 i think most people critique him for not considering culture, politics, technology etc. he bases his predictions mostly on location, and while useful, it’s not the entire picture.
Ok now on to the actual experts here in CZcams comments
Ironically most of the time they talk about demografics so yeah many of them are experts, why you think CZcams uses censorship so much?
Don Martin sup nigga
@@golagiswatchingyou2966 hello
odegaard He is not optimistic about the US because we’re amazing or anything I think we’re all ready to admit we kinda suck but because we have the best situation and have always had the best situation. Best geography best demographics and institutions that are good enough to not screw that all up. Whilst everyone else has everything so bad that it’s almost impossible for them to survive let alone thrive
Your comment has aged poorly
Peter's talks may be repetitive, but I can not get enough of them. Thanks for uploading!
Image when you pay for a private analysis. Probably really good info.
Very repetitive. Same old speech from 2012
agree completely. each talk though always adds something new to them, even if it is only one thing new added.
@@alecjones4135 so 7 years later and he's still spot on. That's some pretty damn good forecasting. I mean, we're seeing his books play out live in front of our eyes.
yeah. What wouldn't I give just to have a conversation with the man
Summarizing the US: welp boys, team deathmatch was cool but Im going to play offline now as I used to be.
😊gygvyvch
Hhh
Uvbhb it😊
Huh? Try that again with a different translation app.
@@MarcosElMalo2 Trump or Biden (doesn't matter): "America First" - Globalization was fun but it's time to take our ball and go home...
Good to finally hear an audience that laughs at his jokes
They have microphones in the audience for this talk. His other ones the audience is further away from the microphones so you can barely hear them talk or laugh. In QAs during other talks Peter has to wait for someone to hand the asker a microphone so he can hear them.
Sometimes it is a bad crowd too
Believe me, people aren't laughing now.
People probably in shock 😲 🫨 🫢 can't laugh when your shook😊
They are few and far between.
1:43 Start
11:04 Demography
20:58 Robert Lighthizer
46:30 Peter Zeihan books
47:02 Q&A
Thank you.
Good job
You a homie
Doin' God's work here.
Praise be!
This man just predicted the future. After the Iran-soleimani disaster, whatever he said about the disruption looks spot on.
Viraj Kulkarni been calling it for a decade
With Biden in the OO, expect an extremely warmongering administration.
@@ChipmunkRapidsMadMan1869 That’s not what Peter is saying.
We should be wary of people like Peter. They're popular within the first 10-20 years of their predictions because it's not that hard to predict the near future.
But when their bolder claims never come to pass, they're discredited and we move onto the next person predicting the end of the world in 10-20 years.
In the 80s, George Friedman, Zeihan's former boss, predicted a US-Japan conflict and failed to predict the fall of the Soviet Union. 20 years later he predicted the fracturing of Russia by 2020 and the complete collapse and dissolution of China by 2030.
Zeihan, on the other hand, in his books and blog posts, none of his wild claims cite works from any studies or findings from other experts in the field. In academia, the bolder the claim the higher the burden of proof. That logic would imply that his books would have a truly massive bibliography. The Accidental Superpower doesn't have a bibliography.
Zeihan gets away with this because he claims that he's an expert in 6 fields. His website says "Peter combines expert understanding of demography, economics, energy, politics, technology, and security to help clients best prepare for an uncertain future." That's A LOT of areas to be an expert in, quite frankly. He doesn't cite anything but, don't worry, Zeihan knows what he's talking about so we should trust him. This is, of course, a logical fallacy called "argument from authority". It's a well known fallacy and it's often associated with bold or even miraculous claims.
From the future. Yall should have listened to this dude.
I've read his book a couple of months ago and wasn't surprised the least when I heard of the attack in KSA oil facilities yesterday. This guy is brilliant
That's a great point I totally forgot about KSA.
He really is. An underated analyst.
This is just the opening sene grab the popcorn and lets watch
I just said the same thing today!!! I love this guy
@Phoenix : According to Wikipedia, the US has roughly 5 trillion barrels of recoverable oil in shales. That amount cannot be extracted in a decade.
Peter is a guy I can get behind. His optimistic charisma really puts your right foot forward. That's what I like about him.
Just different enough every time to keep me coming back.
My greatest regards to Peter Zeihan. I admire him so much and can't get enough of him.
Viewing this in 2022… this guy is a prognosticating savant!
Absolutely
it's funny, because he is being wrong in all its predictions.
@@shostako1284 examples?
@@harveymoment in 2015 he predicted the collapse of Venezuela in 5 years, the break up of Canada (independence of Alberta or even its integration in US)by around 2020, the inmediate collapse of China (he is insisting on this, enlarging every time its time frame), he predicted US will be the powerhouse of Steel goods production instead of China because all the experienced engineers will go to US by cheap, he predicted Iran will have problems with all its neighbours: Russia, Arabia, Turkey, China... (specially nasty seeing the actual reality and its BRICS integration and its massive new membership petitions ). I can go on and on.
But especially funny is his incapacity to predict the internal US actual serious problems.
@@shostako1284 Iran is having problems with its neighbors, so no, he didn't miss, on the contrary he was right, and BRICS is a joke. Venezuela is a failed state, most Venezuelans are leaving the country, I don't know how anyone can look at Venezuela and think that it's still a functional country, where I live you can find Venezuelans who left the country all the time on the street. He did not say that Canada would secede but that it was likely, and remains likely. China is a complete disaster these days.
Peter always has the nicest ties, lol. I love it.
And the 🧦 give Justin Trudeau a run for his 💵!
Who doesn't like ties.
@Leroy Jenkins hahahha
Zeihan here is so much more academic than he is now, and I actually like old zeihan better.
He's catering now to the intellectual democrats, gotta have a much cooler look.
Because he now is desperate (as all US diplomatic system, with its international catastrophic policies and more evident and desperate brutal crimes are showing). In those days he can defend his lies and wishful thinking to the public, using humor. Now? he is struggling at EVERY lie he tries to sell as "a scientific truth". And I must note... that is very delightful to see ("Muahahaha", as he used to say XD). And in just 4 fucking years!
54:46 summarizes the whole thing.
Bottom line: We're going into a renationalization of the global trading network. In other words, Globalization is going into reverse.
So Balkanization. I enjoy these Stratfor guys: The Next 100 Years, The Coming Anarchy, Disunited Nations... Unfortunately, I was born in the wrong place.
@@pitbullsid Hmmmn born in the wrong place or the wrong time period?
@@brucewmclaughlin9072 Wrong place. There was never a good time to be born around these parts of the world.
@@pitbullsid *most parts of the world, half of europe, whole of africa, 3/4 of asia...
@@tortugatech Yeah... The geopolitical interests that superpowers have in this area are what's really scaring me. Given your name, I think we might be neighbors.
His analysis is solid. His newsletters spot on and provocative. Twitter, good. Someone to follow. Seems, from other comments that Peter is striking some nerves. Were people to actually understand Global Macro, Development Economics, Trade, and Global Finance then they would be able to contextualize Peter's perspective better. Indeed, Peter could include a few dozen more useful points, were he to have a better grasp himself. But generally his contours are correct. Problem is, we aren't ordering a pizza here, takes longer than it does to switch the channel, we may be a viewer, but aren't a customer who can have our ignorance valued of our mere expectation. He's worth watching and reading.
We should be wary of people like Peter. They're popular within the first 10-20 years of their predictions because it's not that hard to predict the near future.
But when their bolder claims never come to pass, they're discredited and we move onto the next person predicting the end of the world in 10-20 years.
In the 80s, George Friedman, Zeihan's former boss, predicted a US-Japan conflict and failed to predict the fall of the Soviet Union. 20 years later he predicted the fracturing of Russia by 2020 and the complete collapse and dissolution of China by 2030.
Zeihan, on the other hand, in his books and blog posts, none of his wild claims cite works from any studies or findings from other experts in the field. In academia, the bolder the claim the higher the burden of proof. That logic would imply that his books would have a truly massive bibliography. The Accidental Superpower doesn't have a bibliography.
Zeihan gets away with this because he claims that he's an expert in 6 fields. His website says "Peter combines expert understanding of demography, economics, energy, politics, technology, and security to help clients best prepare for an uncertain future." That's A LOT of areas to be an expert in, quite frankly. He doesn't cite anything but, don't worry, Zeihan knows what he's talking about so we should trust him. This is, of course, a logical fallacy called "argument from authority". It's a well known fallacy and it's often associated with bold or even miraculous claims.
@@Adrian-rb4qp Chinese trolls are starting to get more upset with Peter the close it gets to facing rebalancing, no Adrian? Someone who challenges the common narrative, not able to be silenced highlighting where the cracks are deepening in the CCP system. Appeal to authority is the logical fallacy not argument from, which isn't even correct grammatical form of a phrase to denote a fallacy
@@cstevenson5256 Has nothing to do with China. Peter lies and gets stuff wrong. He does not cite sources. Most credible people would brush him off, as they should. If you think this is some political debate about China, it's not; it is a factual one. Had Peter provided tens of other experts that agree with him, it would have been noteworthy.
and from one thing to another, don't you think China has their own experts? the Chinese are not dumb, in fact, China is a meritocracy. if there were "cracks" in the system, the Chinese would know.
@@Adrian-rb4qp You imagine no supports and a meritocracy in China when there are others supporting Peters conclusions and China is a Kleptocracy of the Children and Grandchildren of the CCP. W should listen to your straw man, of no supposed citations and this somehow transforming into no support of others, this a logical fallacy, and then we should listen to you. No cracks, Official and failed policy from 10th Peoples Congress to Rebalance away from the Investment Led model in China thus accelerating debt and low efficiency of that taken. All the work on the Chinese Demography out there, the gentleman in Pennsylvania, the entire Global Macro community outside of a few Hedge Fund managers with Special Investing rights who get time on the TV. Sounds as if your need of expertise rises no further than the guided CCP narrative you find on TV, while debates internal to China are far less fantasyland. Problem with your statement, is you don't know enough to make the assertion,.
@@cstevenson5256 I’ve seen spam-like comments from “Adrian” now in the comments section. I thought it was a real person, but now it looks like an algorithm.
54:15 Blizzard and the NBA debacles predicted.
This guy is the most fascinating and prescient thinker I have ever discovered! Ordering his books TODAY.
We should be wary of people like Peter. They're popular within the first 10-20 years of their predictions because it's not that hard to predict the near future.
But when their bolder claims never come to pass, they're discredited and we move onto the next person predicting the end of the world in 10-20 years.
In the 80s, George Friedman, Zeihan's former boss, predicted a US-Japan conflict and failed to predict the fall of the Soviet Union. 20 years later he predicted the fracturing of Russia by 2020 and the complete collapse and dissolution of China by 2030.
Zeihan, on the other hand, in his books and blog posts, none of his wild claims cite works from any studies or findings from other experts in the field. In academia, the bolder the claim the higher the burden of proof. That logic would imply that his books would have a truly massive bibliography. The Accidental Superpower doesn't have a bibliography.
Zeihan gets away with this because he claims that he's an expert in 6 fields. His website says "Peter combines expert understanding of demography, economics, energy, politics, technology, and security to help clients best prepare for an uncertain future." That's A LOT of areas to be an expert in, quite frankly. He doesn't cite anything but, don't worry, Zeihan knows what he's talking about so we should trust him. This is, of course, a logical fallacy called "argument from authority". It's a well known fallacy and it's often associated with bold or even miraculous claims.
The demographic thing he is definitely right about and it’s a fact that the world has never seen a demographic disaster as we’re looking at now.
Ggnofnkjltbkhb
Good thing, fucking hell. Eight billions and counting. All of this is on articifical breathing machine that is the current and unprecedented energy supply market, which will eventually fall following constantly receding EROI.
The average diet in developed countries requires 4000m2 of arable land per inhabitant (mostly for livestock), a figure often close or over the land availabilty, hence heavily sustained by food imports.
Of course the demographic stabilisation will fuck up the quality of life of one or two generations for economic reasons, but it's far more desirable than civilisational collapse because of demographic bubble. Zeihan of course knows this, but somehow seems to value population growth regardless of sustainability issues.
"the cost of capital will quadruple in three years" -- guy was pretty spot on with that one
You see one zeihan speech you've seen them all.
WHITEPHOENIX OFTHECROWN
And yet the law of diminishing marginal returns has yet to be enforced.
A big part of his speeches though is educating those in the room who might not know the history of how we got to today. That doesn't really change much as nothing truly major has happened besides a new American President as far as the audience is concerned.
His speeches will rapidly change once one of his predictions or something else truly major happens.
He tweaks some of it based on the audience, but he has his routine just like a comedian.
Correct. The smugness. The arrogance. The limp attempt at humour. The generalizations. The assumptions that support Ponzi economics.
Three years have shown Peter to be extremely accurate
What I like about this guy is he appeals to my superior intellect🤖
This is truly fantastic. I bought both of his books last week and finished his last one today. What George Friedmann and other older generations don't dare to say or to be so bold his presentations and visualizations of interdependencies are great.
Peter worked for George at Stratfor. I do think George was willing to tell truth to power especially to Europeans
ah shut up u big pussy, be a man
LOL Not even God can stop China / Russia led Eurasian trade zone from dominating the entire world - recently signed Russia / China / Iran energy deals are worth 800 BILLION DOLLARS - that's just for starters
@@kevinbrown4073 more truth yes, I agree with you on that. But not everything. I mean he does have a history at RAND, he's probably not in the position to tell everything. Even if he would like to.
We should be wary of people like Peter. They're popular within the first 10-20 years of their predictions because it's not that hard to predict the near future.
But when their bolder claims never come to pass, they're discredited and we move onto the next person predicting the end of the world in 10-20 years.
In the 80s, George Friedman, Zeihan's former boss, predicted a US-Japan conflict and failed to predict the fall of the Soviet Union. 20 years later he predicted the fracturing of Russia by 2020 and the complete collapse and dissolution of China by 2030.
Zeihan, on the other hand, in his books and blog posts, none of his wild claims cite works from any studies or findings from other experts in the field. In academia, the bolder the claim the higher the burden of proof. That logic would imply that his books would have a truly massive bibliography. The Accidental Superpower doesn't have a bibliography.
Zeihan gets away with this because he claims that he's an expert in 6 fields. His website says "Peter combines expert understanding of demography, economics, energy, politics, technology, and security to help clients best prepare for an uncertain future." That's A LOT of areas to be an expert in, quite frankly. He doesn't cite anything but, don't worry, Zeihan knows what he's talking about so we should trust him. This is, of course, a logical fallacy called "argument from authority". It's a well known fallacy and it's often associated with bold or even miraculous claims.
Yes!!! More Zeihan!!!!!!!
I like the updated information,America is in a wonderful spot!
The best part of this speech is that it is conspiracy free.
@Ascendant Ape Peter is a Russian agent.
Always find Peter Zeihan interesting. This one is mostly the same as his other presos but there are a few new slides…
34:15 - crude and natural gas trapped mid-continent and keystone XL pipeline not happening anytime soon - difficult to export natural gas
35:40 - risk to crude flows - US has light/sweet but refineries tooled for heavy/sour - biggest challenge oil industry faces - also Mexico crude off line
38:00 - US natural gas essentially free for the foreseeable future
41:00 - geopolitics of Steel - coming to US due to low energy costs
42.27 - value added manufacturing (US, Germany, China)
47:00 - Q&A
Dude is brilliant. Bright future for USA.
51:20 He's right about DFW. And this has been my angst against the authoritarian environmentalists. If you want to attack the problem, you want to be more innovative in your approach. DFW solves problems with a financial incentive, and as a byproduct, we're environmentally sound. Two birds one stone. It was a great observation by Mr. Zeihan.
I am so gald to see a new Peter Zeihan video on here. These are always so educational and exciting to see and hear.
Totally sounds like Don Draper
Had a feeling I was gonna have to move from Canada one day😥
Yeah, its too dam cold! Move to Arizona!
@@linmal2242 who wants to go to a third world country like the USA? US comes to you.
Jordan Lynch Canada’s gonna get mived
Jordan Lynch *moved
The British will probably bring their empire so they’ll probably look after you, he’s said this in another video
Wow the last bit about getting manufacturing out of china aged so well
4 years later kinda surprised the convoy joke didn't land better
Great video!
Worth watching.
Great presentation :)
I watch them all because there are little updates and tweaks to every one of them. Its interesting to see as it goes. I suspect that including them all in one video, instead of just smashing all the videos together, would make a 2 and a half hour video total.
"I really want to get off the stage" Proceeds to talk for a minute anf forty seconds more
Pete on Saudi Arabia vs Iran competing for regional control: “I can’t wait to see how that shakes out.”
After Mullah-ing it over, I think it will Sheik out.
The mullahs will be out within 2 years.
Do you think his shirt just happens to match the background? :D
shut up
Just in case the presentation goes badly.
My favourite speaker, repetitive or not its always great!
I have watched his lectures time and time again and I think he is spot on. Thank you for your wisdom!!!
53:50 It took one month
Only discovered him this evening - convincing theories, apt to the point of woe for some regional issues, including China where I live and my currency is now, with Brexit looming, which may after all pan out as a good idea in the greater long term global future. Studied and taught history/humanities for 30 years and fully accept the premise of the conflict zones - I finally unnerstan Trump's fp in the light of this talk, which is a relief because I thought the USA had gone mad by turning away from the brink of holding the biggest sphere of influence of any power ever; but then I am of the generation that viewed the US through Bush senior lenses. Crikey if I were in the UK today I would probably have changed where I put my x on this weeks ballot paper.
This guy is a geopolitical genius. He really knows how the world works. I have been following his forecasts for a few years now and can say that the world is (de)evolving EXACTLY as he predicted. Read his books and latch onto his every word. I promise that you won't be surprised by all the terrible things that are about to happen over the next decade. You may even profit from them.
We should be wary of people like Peter. They're popular within the first 10-20 years of their predictions because it's not that hard to predict the near future.
But when their bolder claims never come to pass, they're discredited and we move onto the next person predicting the end of the world in 10-20 years.
In the 80s, George Friedman, Zeihan's former boss, predicted a US-Japan conflict and failed to predict the fall of the Soviet Union. 20 years later he predicted the fracturing of Russia by 2020 and the complete collapse and dissolution of China by 2030.
Zeihan, on the other hand, in his books and blog posts, none of his wild claims cite works from any studies or findings from other experts in the field. In academia, the bolder the claim the higher the burden of proof. That logic would imply that his books would have a truly massive bibliography. The Accidental Superpower doesn't have a bibliography.
Zeihan gets away with this because he claims that he's an expert in 6 fields. His website says "Peter combines expert understanding of demography, economics, energy, politics, technology, and security to help clients best prepare for an uncertain future." That's A LOT of areas to be an expert in, quite frankly. He doesn't cite anything but, don't worry, Zeihan knows what he's talking about so we should trust him. This is, of course, a logical fallacy called "argument from authority". It's a well known fallacy and it's often associated with bold or even miraculous claims.
@@Adrian-rb4qp Thanks for your advice. I am smart enough and educated enough to combine information from various sources and then come to my OWN conusions. I know Peter is NOT an expert in any particular field. But that's the whole point. He is a GREAT GENERALIST. He collects and combines information from various fields, economics, finance, military, political etc. and gives you the WHOLE picture which NO one expert can give. Of course he is sometimes wrong, but he has been more right about the big picture than any other person I know. Also next 20 yrs forecast is all I need. Because in the very long run we are all dead.
Always exceptional, thank you for uploading! These presentations are always so informative, I learn a little something new each time. There's a lot of China alarmism in our media, and it's good to hear what China is actually contending with. Helpful information in so many ways, recommended to family and friends.
Not really. Remember that those who can, do; those who can't, teach. No disrespect to Zeihan, but his prediction that China will splinter off in a decade is completely wrong. He isn't the first - Japanese economists posited the "China will splinter" idea back in 1992.
All of these ideas are based off the idea that China will operate as a nation-state, using liberal capitalist mechanisms, while striving for outward spreading goals. However, China instead operates as a civilization-state, using state capitalist mechanisms, while striving for inward drawing goals.
Ultimately any sort of "predictive" issue is useless to think about (for us normal citizens) and only "historical" analysis is useful for knowledge.
@@jyashin Can you explain the difference between nation-state and Civilization -state please? I hear a lot of nation-state (ie Professor Measheimer...) but first time I saw civilization-state. Thank you.
@@centerleft4957 The short answer is that China is very adamant in its identity, but it doesn't fit the mold of a nation-state. Thus, the term "civilization-state" is coined to describe China.
-- Long answer (conclusion at end) --
The concept of a nation-state was invented in Europe in order for all the different centralized powers to respect each other's sovereignty. Thus, there were two important aspects at the core of a nation-state.
1) Clear boundaries
2) A distinct ethnic and cultural line
-- Boundaries --
The physical boundaries of the past were very much murky. Even today, China's territory disputes with its neighbors are a result of poor cartography in the early 20th century. Exactly where is the Mahoney Line that separates India and China? Etc.
But more important is the "emotional" boundary. The idea that this land is my land, and that land is your land. Manchuria was once ruled by Korea, but today its people are most definitely Chinese. Vietnam was once ruled by China, but today its people are most definitely *not* Chinese. Mongolians and Koreans are considered part of the Chinese ethnic family, though they are in a different land. Uyghurs and Tatars are not part of the ethnic family, but are members in the same land.
-- Ethnic lines --
Unlike homogeneous Japan, China is extremely diverse. The Han Chinese, which make up 92% of China, doesn't fit the genetic criteria of a single ethnic people. Through history, Han absorbed dozens of ethnic groups, hundreds of cultures. Today, a person from Shandong is very different genetically from a person in Sichuan. Northern Chinese have the pale and slender associated with East Asians (ex. Japanese), while Southern Chinese are dark and rough associated with Southeast Asians (ex. Vietnamese).
-- Cultural lines --
Chinese culture is also very diverse. The native Chinese religions, although sharing similarities, differ too much on core issues to be considered a singular religion. The Chinese language itself, although most definitely a single language, differs far too much when spoken that most people simply treat them as hundreds of separate tongues. While the clothing is broadly grouped as "Hanfu", it differs too much depending on time and location. And this doesn't even take into account the 55 recognized minorities, some of whom also would be better described as a collection of various cultures and ethnicities too.
-- And yet, one country --
With all these separating factors, you'd think China would be fractured, like Europe, India, or Southeast Asia. Except it isn't. Through roughly 1400 years of feudal China, it was united for about 1150 years. Through China's 2132 years of imperial rule, it was united for 1854 years. And despite all the claims about "the coming collapse of China", modern China has remained united for 70 years. Every sinologist, foreign liaison, and political strategist have always expressed the extremely powerful emotion of one China.
-- Conclusion --
Imagine, in a hypothetical scenario, that all Latin American countries plus Spain and Portugal are combined into one single country. This hypothetical country has all the characteristics that currently separate the countries and peoples from each other. However, for some reason, this population of over a billion people firmly believes themselves to be the same people, the same culture, the same history.
That is what China is. And that is why it is considered a civilization-state. Hope this helps.
@@jyashin thank you so much. I have few questions. 1. Would you consider U.S to be a nation-state or civilization state? Or U.S. is too young to be consider as a civilization state.
2. You mentioned that India being fractured. Are you considering that India has never being fulling unified in the past as the reason being fractured? Do you consider India as a civilization-state?
Your hypothetical scenario about Latin American is a great one. extrapolate from this, do you think the "time " factory is the main cause of civilization-state?
Would you recommend any books regarding this subject?
Again, thank you very much.
@@centerleft4957 No problem. In regards to your questions.
1) Personally I think the US exhibits both characteristics of nation-state and civilization-state. The US itself firmly calls itself a nation-state. However, I think a major reason for the current societal turmoil in the US is that its people are grappling with both identities.
On the one hand, the US has a clear-cut history of centralized rule - as the native populations were all but wiped out. Boundaries are also very easily drawn - ocean to ocean, Rio Grande to St. Lawrence, 49th parallel. On the other hand some states have their distinct histories from their time as different and/or independent countries (Texas, Hawaii, and the SW states). The US calls itself a melting pot, where your past becomes a "clean slate" and you take on a new American identity. But on the other hand certain non-white minorities will never lose their heritage and either won't (Latinos) or can't (Asians) become "real Americans" - as certain ultra right-wing rhetoric put it.
2) India has mostly been fractured in its long and illustrious history, but even today it is fractured as well. Pakistan and Bangladesh were carved out of India. And even within India proper, it lacks a strong unifying factor. Narendra Modi's reign is characterized by his attempt at creating a stronger unifying force via Hinduism - and simultaneously ostracizing the 15% of India that isn't Hindu.
I would consider India, as it currently is, to be very similar to a civilization state. However, if India were to fracture even further, this would no longer hold true. The future in the Kashmir region and the nascent Nagaland independence movement could break the concept of a civilization state in India being true. Time will tell.
3) As for time, it is well known as the ultimate test. It certainly plays a factor, as any attempt to transform a country into something it is not will quickly fail after a certain amount of time passes. The best examples are the failed democracies in Africa and the Middle East.
Conversely, just because something manages to last a certain amount of time doesn't mean it is necessarily true. The best example is the Islamic Caliphate, lasting hundreds of years, even rivaling the Tang Dynasty of China in terms of power and impact. But we can see from today's Middle East that clearly the Arab World is not a civilization state.
4) The term "civilization state" is a recent one. It only rose in the mid 1990s as academics tried to describe China specifically, as opposed to the centuries long concept of the "nation-state."
Due to its short history, and the fact that it really only applies to China (India is trying to join the group) there really isn't a lot of work done on the concept. What we do know is that due to all the failed explanations and predictions of China's rise and unity, something is clearly wrong with applying the "nation-state" model.
Martin Jacques book "When China rules the world" is the book that popularized the term civilization-state, but it's certainly not a definitive answer on the concept. It's more a collection of Jacques' own observations, combined with existing theories on the continuity of China. Thus, if you're looking for a specific book to examine the "civilization state," you won't find one yet. But as China continues to reemerge as a global power, more work will be done to analyze the idea of an alternative to nation-statehood.
So much has come true.... bravo especially green tech (Germany) and re-shoring (China) @ 49 mins
When i saw the date of the video i was impressed !
Agenda 2030 still didnt started like today which made many ppl speculate and give presentations like zeihan, but zeihan did it before hand which is impressive
10:50 we are due for another shock...He was so right
Can we talk about how this came out and then Abqaiq happened?
Pretty nuts, huh?
Peter talked about the potential oil interruption in the Persian gulf for the last six years
@@kevinbrown4073 my point is he was finally proven right
He's one of the best at reading the tea leaves.
The need for oil, access to markets, ability to project power, the demographics to buy the products, an ailing need for allies
Peter Crowd, unite!
I would listen to this guy rant about knitting, what an amazing teacher.
Excellent insights. Though he seems somewhat less informed about India. He'd be pleasantly surprised if he pays some attention.
Peter speaks on China's economy when he says: "When the loans are free, when the money is bottomless, you can bid up the price of anything because you don't care what the price is" but this applies equally as well to the US higher education economy.
American has dozens of bubbles like this. China has thousands.
Brain drain always helped us. It helped them also. That’s good immigration in my mind.
This is the area in which Peter is most persuasive
TimeSquare Tie - the Best!
"If you lose access [to SWIFT], you don't just lose access to American markets, you lose access to international trade"
Q2 2022 talking here -- Have China and Russia recently demonstrated that this is no longer the case?
They never got hit with loss of swift and yet they still suffering from economic hardship
So I'd say yes, loss of swift is pretty severe
@@rejvaik00 What sort of details or specifics (in our current fog of war, with its lies and disinformation) could you provide to back that up?
@@jimluebke3869 well for one thing the Russians are surprised at how the Chinese are refusing to offer up direct military aid
Because the Chinese fear the economic sanctions imposed by the international community
Russia expected the Chinese to assist them much like how Ukraine is being assisted in being given Stinger launchers and HIMARS artillery systems, etc.
China has offered none of that, China has participated in the as you said misinformation war because the Chinese government regularly broadcasts the Russian propaganda and the Russian talking points
But not any military assistance, no infact the Chinese government has only increased the fire economic situation in Russia because they will purchase Russian supplied energy but at a steep discount
China instead participated in a predatory economic opportunity much to Russia's disappointment
@@rejvaik00 Россию отключили от СВИФТа в начале прошлого года.
What is the painting at 02:25?
starts at 1:50
30:12-30:22 is my new ringtone
I love the new maps, is the new book already out?
He says towards the end that the new book comes out in February 2020.
His new book is already on my wish list at Audible.com.
American Exceptionalism, the man. Don't get me wrong, he has insight, I hear everything this man puts out. But let's be real. You need to filter every single word. Some is truth, most is him selling you his books.
Finally seeing modification of his presentations. Still impressed. Wondering why none of his presentations discuss the impact of oil fields in Southeast Asia and Alaska. I recall an ROTC instructor in 1970 explain the Vietnam War as a hidden conflict over the potential untapped Oil Field under the South China Sea; looking at it this way and Zeihan’s pitch and current events there, another way to look at it.
Has nothing to do with it, because the cost doesn't worth the pay for such a thing. The whole point of Vietnam was to limit soviet influence and further increase their economic and political suffocation.
This man sees the big picture like few others, but he's cold as ice man.
He looks more corporate with his pony tail now, and more like closet hippy hiding under a haircut in this video. 😂
The thing I love about Pete is that he embraces the Bold Statement. He’s like the stunt driver of geopolitics, unafraid to go take a curve a little faster than other analysts.
Goat!
aw heck ya!
His breathing/laughing kills me
How clever! Zeihen even made up his own demographic profiles (the graphs clearly indicated "Copyright Zeihen) of Mexico.
2023 I listen to one from eight years ago now I'm listening to this one let's see how crazy this guy is
Tariffs maks sense..
Dang, I had no idea I was a waste of skin. Highly informative
4:00 He's referring to a map but they're not showing the map! I hope this gets better.
It DID get better!
I really hope his third book actually talks about Australia in more than just a paragraph and a half. Don't get me wrong, his analysis on the rest of the world is riveting and data based (rather than ideologically based) and I love it. But it gets tiring when your country is little more than a footnote in talks like this and in books that address these topics.
Cody's Odyssey
Well Australia isn’t really going to be around much longer with their stupidity like allowing children to change the sex on their birth certificates (yes that’s happened).
Matthew as far as I know that’s only in Victoria and Tasmania. And the only people who pay that nonsense any mind are the inner-city lefties. It’s really not that prevalent in the country writ large. I’m sure that if this stuff continues election trends are going to swing against that nonsense.
There’s no need to scare monger and indulge in worst-case scenario thinking
I understand the patriotic slight you're feeling, but I think the reason that AU largely gets overlooked is because it's geography is not great. And anytime you see "not great" next to "geography" it's time to start thinking "capital intensive". Much of the country itself is wastelands, and setting SE Asia aside, it's a LONG way to get anything to/from AU. Distance is expense, so it's hard to look at AU as being anything other than an adjunct player of some other major power that has the ability to invest enormous piles of capital into protecting AU's trade. Without the US Navy to protect all seaborne trade AU's economic impact on the rest of the world would be vanishingly small and almost entirely limited to digital goods (see: Atlassian) that are mostly independent of physical security or distance issues. He has a map of global land quality here: zeihan.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/zeihan-global-lands-map.jpg
Adam Wilson granted a lot of our land sucks. But even that map shows that we have far more easily developed land than most countries have land full stop. Our biggest issue is our lack of rivers. Our rivers are little more than glorified streams. (I was astonished by the size of the rivers in other countries when I traveled overseas). Our Murray-Darling river basin is on par with the Mississippi just in terms of raw size. The thing that sucks is our dry climate and flat geography. If our country had taller mountains that actually supplied enough water to make our rivers navigable we would be like another America. Unfortunately though, we aren’t. We’re stuck dealing with seasonal heatwaves that could become deadly in an instant.
But it’s not like we will struggle. We have a a far better geography than Canada or Brazil in many ways. Even Zeihan puts us in the rising stars category. ( zeihan.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/Global-stability-map.jpg ) I just really want to know more about why. I want to know the specifics. I’m really hoping he writes more about Australia in Disunited Nations.
It just really annoys me that Angola of all places gets more than Australia.
@@codysodyssey3818 I think it really comes down to the distance problem. You can be absolutely right about everything else, but it's 12000km from Sydney to LA and 150km from Tijuana to LA. The distance is a blessing in that the distance puts AU well out of the primary future war zones, but it's also a curse in that it puts AU uneconomically far away from the largest markets. AU's ability to be a rising star is contingent on a strong deals with the US to get access to US Navy protection for it's shipping and it ability to make strong connections with other US partners in SE Asia.
It's the contingencies that make AU a question mark. Note that map also has Argentina as a rising star, but that was contingent on them not ducking up their politics, which they just did a few months ago in their latest elections. IIRC, Zeihan made it clear that the "rising stars" map was nations that had all the ingredients needed to rise, but that the political will of the nation would be the determining factor in whether or not they did, not that it was a foregone conclusion. It's still up to the AU people to get a grip on their governments and steer them in the right direction. A prime example of this would be AU's shale natgas reserves. While they are extensive the current climate-driven political situation in AU makes exploiting them a non-starter. That'll likely need to change for AU to actually rise, because with China entering a period of existential crisis, they aren't going to have any reason to share the Spratly's with AU, no matter how conciliatory the AU government is towards them.
So yes, AU can be a rising star, but some major changes are going to have to break your way first. You do have advantages, you are an English speaking Five Eyes nation with a long history in dealing with the US. But that has to be balanced against the geographic disadvantages.
currency transactions between two non US countries use a two step currency 'exchange' process if both chose to use US dollars as the mediator- not a 3 step process - but we know what you mean
In ‘22 he grew a beard and looked even more convincing
😆🤣🤣🤣
What does it mean 'capital shortage'? They have less money to keep balance? I searched it, but its not clear. Anyone to explain?
Jk Ryu capital = money. Credit or cash.
Angola is a rising star? What's going for it? Any info would be appreciative.
Angola has oil, diamonds, gold, and lumber. In addition, its economy is among the strongest in Africa, and it has good demographics.
@@ForTexasIWill Thank you! Would you be able to elaborate on it's demographics? How is it an asset to this country?
Yup.
That.
Lol
Does shale lobbying money factors in here?
Kinda? Its certainly the big reason why shale is becoming the big factor it is, but lobbying is more of an assumed state than anything out of the ordinary. Its to be expected that a profitable industry would lobby, especially when its a controversial one. But still the reason why they are successful at moving opinions is because their argument has some sense to it.
So its more of a symptom of a cause than a cause in of itself.
Well let's think about this topic. Importing foreign oil has been a significant issue since the 19770s. Also everyone agrees that protecting the middle East flow of oil has been a national security issue since the 1980s
36:39 That enormous dot marked "Urals" looks pretty disrupted right now.
Any other of those dots disrupted by the Ukraine thing?
"..its been a while since 9/11. We're due for another shock"
Wellll holy shit
The slowing of population growth and the aging of the industrial population is good when compared to the alternative which is unsupportable population growth.
now i know zeihan aint no weather for caster but mmigration, due to climate change might also be an interesting part to take into consideration in these lectures.
It's nonsense. That's just an excuse for the elite class to encourage more migration and depress wages. After covid, the number of open positions have soared, and that's the time that salaries should increase, since workers become more scarce. They increase migration only to inflate the economy and depress wages. Only to deal with the short term consequences of the financial system.
Climate change has also become an excuse to funnel elite's capital into new markets and businesses with government spnding at the cost of people's pensions to increase the elite's slice of the pie.
The cost of capital increasing by 4? The inflows of foreign money should moderate that figure by half. The interest rates may double, but my guess that quadruple is out there.
IF quadruples it is still not all that bad compared to history
Forgetting the effect of hypersonics and submarines on aircraft carriers. Having said that the USN has 60 or so SSN's.
Maybe I am looking at this wrong so I'm hoping someone can give me an answer.
He always says the US doesnt need or care about the rest of the world for the most part because of the amount of oil we have. My problem with following his reasoning is that the oil is publicly owned and will be traded on the global market as such. Wouldn't we have to nationalize these resources to keep them in house?
Answer:Export ban. Trump has to options when this happens: let the people pay a lot of money for oil or forbid exports so that they pay a hell of a lot less. I think you know what he will choose.
@@ansfriedjanssens7623 He wont choose either of those
America has explored shale for a reason; that reason is that other types of oil are running out. Eventually, the shale will run out.
This doesn't matter to Peter, because he doesn't care about how big the global pie is, only how big America's share is. If the global economy was one hundredth the size and no country could afford the infrastructure for technology past the 1900s, Peter would think it's perfectly fine as long as America was the most powerful out of the remains.
Everything non-renewable will run out and most of the items that are considered renewable are made with raw materials of limited quantities. Hopefully technology can carry us through or we'll see a return to basic survival after a massive die off.
@@ryankuypers1819 Yes, but not until 2050-2100
It's scary how spot on he is at breaking down the information into key elements. We see all this happening now, sped up too because of covid.
It was not Canadian marines in 1812. It was European regulars from the Caribbean. The Canadians fought well, but never came south.
A statue of Canadian troops burning the Whitehouse in downtown Toronto says otherwise.
@@jamescollins3893 So do many old school books. They are wrong though.
I would look at building a thorium molten salt reactor. We had one running in Oak Ridge Tennessee from 1965 to 1970. The concept is different. You don't have a bunch of rods in a pool of water. You have thorium combined with molten salt running through a heat exchanger. It is not pressurized, it cannot blow up. Byproducts would be molybdenum 99 for cancer diagnostics therapies and research. Xenon for Nassau, for interstellar space travel. The excess heat can be used for water desalinization and petroleum distillate manufacturing. I believe Bill Gates is building a prototype in Idaho as we speak. Instead of having a huge regional reactor which could be taken out by terrorist, it would be better to have, smaller reactors in each town or city.
What about the national debt? Pretty soon inturest payments on that are gonna skyrocket
It won’t matter since the capital flight into the US will keep the US dollar very strong
14:55 In the year 2022 capital will quadruple. He called this inflation directly on time.
50:30 he is wrong there. It already pays back and the price fall trend will continue. (but later he is correct that there is a limit because of storage)
mrgomelonsolaris
Actually it doesn’t. What most people don’t realize is that government subsidies are rarely included in statistics.
@@matthew8153 I disagree. Houshold return on PV is 6-8 years, without subsidies. Grid-parity happened years ago.
@@mrgomelonsolaris If you are a thief who can't add in the 50% subsidies..... yet claim a pay back period of 8 years with NO STORAGE and then it ONLY works in VERY sunny southern USA. Majority dear fool, live north where the sun does not shine for ~4 months of the year. Europe? Oh forget it. Sahara desert is a wonderful place.....
PS: I bought used panels and installed myself, with a payback period(real payback with ROI of 10%) of 7 years, but majority cannot due to them not owning their own home free and clear and mortgage company forces them to farm the installation out which require NEW expensive panels instead of 2nd hand cheap panels as I did.
@@w8stral are you in the USA? Because new panels in other countries are way cheaper than USA as is installing. At a minimum Spain and Australia are already at grid parity
USA 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸
30:13. What does this mean. Will someone explain this to me a little bit. Thank you so very much!
Erick, he is saying that China has expanded credit too far too fast. He is predicting that China is about to have a very large and very bad recession, epic large, ...huuuuuuge
Dane Brammage
So that means that the Chinese may become an indebted community instead of a savings community.
@@erickrcisneros capital flight from China has been happening, the real estate boom in Vancouver Canada?, that was Chinese money, same thing in some west coast states of the USA; Seattle, San Francisco, Los Angeles. Also the price boom in American farmland last few years. The reason that American farm land is seeing a bit of a bust right now is foreign capital is leaving. Not sure where you are in the world or how it will impact you, but China is looking at some very hard times in the near future.
@@danebrammage4330 Has nothing to do with foreign money and USA farmland. Has everything to do with the USA printing money increasing the value of physical assets.
@@w8stral and the Vancouver Canada real estate? you think that was US dollar too?