Arctic System Collapse? Devastating new research.
Vložit
- čas přidán 17. 09. 2022
- The arctic region is a key driver of global climate patterns. In the summer of 2022, three peer reviewed research papers were published, all of which showed the systems that have kept the arctic stable for thousands of years are now collapsing far more quickly than previous analysis and modelling had suggested. A fourth paper, published at the same time, shows us what the consequences are likely to be. This video assesses all four.
Help support this channels independence at
/ justhaveathink
Or with a donation via Paypal by clicking here
www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr...
You can also help keep my brain ticking over during the long hours of research and editing via the nice folks at BuyMeACoffee.com
www.buymeacoffee.com/justhave...
Video Transcripts available at our website
www.justhaveathink.com
Interested in mastering and remembering the concepts that I present in my videos? Check out the FREE Dive Deeper mini-courses offered by the Center for Behavior and Climate. These mini-courses teach the main concepts in select JHAT videos and go beyond to help you learn additional scientific or conservation concepts. The courses are great for teachers to use or for individual learning.climatechange.behaviordevelop...
Research links
NASA 2022 Arctic Sea Ice satellite images
www.nasa.gov/feature/esnt/202...
Barents Sea research paper
www.nature.com/articles/s4159...
Arctic warming research paper
www.nature.com/articles/s4324...
Greenland ice sheet research paper
www.nature.com/articles/s4155...
Climate Tipping points research paper
www.science.org/doi/10.1126/s...
National Snow and Ice Data Center
nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/ch...
Check out other CZcams Climate Communicators
Planet Proof
/ @planetproofofficial
zentouro:
/ zentouro
Climate Adam:
/ climateadam
Kurtis Baute:
/ scopeofscience
Levi Hildebrand:
/ the100lh
Simon Clark:
/ simonoxfphys
Sarah Karvner:
/ @sarahkarver
Rollie Williams / ClimateTown: / @climatetown
Jack Harries:
/ jacksgap
Beckisphere: / @beckisphere
Our Changing Climate :
/ @ourchangingclimate
Engineering With Rosie
/ engineeringwithrosie
Ella Gilbert
/ drgilbz - Věda a technologie
"... you probably haven't realised the seriousness of the situation."
I had that realisation more than 40 years ago, and I'm still waiting for any meaningful response from governments.
Concur. I would read about this as a kid in 1977.
We need a hemp revolution
same...
60 years for me. Nice to have some company. Thank you.
You realized it 40 years ago. Shows what an emergency it is
The last ever dolphin message was misinterpreted as a surprisingly sophisticated attempt to do a double-backwards-somersault through a hoop whilst whistling the 'Star Spangled Banner', but in fact the message was this: 'So long and thanks for all the fish.'
A classic line from Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy, I believe? Douglas Adams was well ahead of his time!
The truth of climate change is protected by a strong SEP field.
Considering that over the past 50 years, our estimates of ocean fish population has decreased by 95%, the dolphins may just have realized there's not much fish left to be given to them.
🤣🤣🤣🤣🐬🌈
You didn't attribute it.
Blue ocean events (expected to be moderately likely by 2030 and almost certain by 2050) mean drastically reduced temperature differentials between the Arctic and 60 degrees North, which means a sluggish jet stream. And this means big changes to climate patterns in the northern hemisphere. And...this means massively disrupted food production systems in the northern hemisphere. You can do the next one...
I am afraid you are absolutely right. The sluggish jet stream can create droughts simultaneously in America, Europe and Asia, reducing e.g. wheat harvest dramatically even without war. But we must not give up.
lmao, I saw articles predicting ice free arctic in less than 5 years like every year for the past 30 years and its still there, just wrong every time lol
@@xtremelemon8612 ... and in the mean time polar ice has been increasing. No, wait, strike that, ice continues to decrease, so the logical conclusion is, ..., anyone?
Dude…I am on your page.
@@xtremelemon8612it’s coming. You should take a trip and see for yourself instead of reading it.
I love to see any of these climate crisis pushes stake something against it. Like "if the sea doesn't rise by 7 metres by this date I will give my house to charity" or perhaps like a bad doctor loose their licence to practice. I think science and models would become better overnight if being wrong cost them in some way.
You don't understand models then. The purpose of a model is to simulate some variables trending in a certain way and predicting the outcome. The purpose isn't to be accurate. The purpose is to create indicators that can predict possible outcomes. It tells them which are the important variables to keep an eye on and what trends are bad.
Scientists make tonnes of models covering a wide array of variables and different combinations of variables. Logic dictates that a large amount of those models will not accurately predict the future, because many of them are using opposite trends of similar variables.
When people point to a model as a warning, like in this video, it isn't to claim a scientist looked into their crystal ball. It's to say that the trends that this model mapped are happening and this is what the model predicted if those trends continue.
@@haddow777 Humbug. The modellers play the game to attract funding and a great way to make a living. Make them pay if they get it wrong take back the funding and spoil their game.
@@Cruner62 you would have a lot of destitute weather forecasters than. I'm sorry, but it's kind of hard to comprehend such a shallow view of predictive models, so it's hard to respond. It's like you don't understand even the basic logic of what a predictive model's benefits are. Being wrong is a huge part of building a predictive model. That is why they don't just build one. I guess you see some predictive model's being talked about on the news and somehow think those are tbe only model's being made or something.
In actuality, they make multiple models simulating multiple predictions. They run them in parallel. The more right one predicts, the mare they figure the variables it is using match reality. So naturally they hone their predictions to that model. They then make more fine tuned predictions and then make a whole bunch of new models based on the parts of each model that were correct. It's a long and error prone process to build the most accurate model.
To try and claim that a model has to be accurate right out the gate does nothing but betray a lack of understanding of predictive model's and general logic.
Also, people building and running model's aren't generally looking for funding. Models like that take specific understanding to build and a good amount of computer power. They're already funded. For them, if they get a model right, it just means they're going to refine the model by building a whole slew of new models with further refinements.
Ok
This is one of those "what can you say?" episodes. Well done for the clear and comprehensive explanation, but I wish there were even the faintest hope of anything getting done about it.
Talk about it. Make people aware. The more public pressure, the more likelihood of politicians putting in legislation to regulate these companies profiteering from the displacement of tens or hundreds of millions of people.
A colleague of mine recently said that the Inflation Reduction Act in the U.S. will "fix climate change"... all I could do was laugh. The IRA should have been done 30 years ago, in my opinion, yet everyone is patting themselves on the back and celebrating. I wish more people were pushing the severity of all this.
And very hard to try and figure out what to motivate yourself with when you're aware that the norm so many folk are chasing after is going to be gone very shortly in geologic terms and likely our terms too.
During the cynical days, i wonder if this is why intelligent life seems to be extremely rare in the universe. It possibly expands and advances far too fast for it's own good, having a nice few centuries of huge growth before making it's habitat inhospitable.
Damn our tribalistic tendencies from adapting to life in small groups. Maybe without them, we wouldn't be so caught up as a species constantly fighting and quarrelling as we are now.
@Dave? That's a stupid comment. It's the "dose of reality" that leads to the realisation of there being no chance of this getting fixed. 'Hope' here means, not some wafty aspiration but 'possibility.' It's a standard usage but if you want to nitpick words then at least make sense in your own terms. To say that hope got us here is fatuous. Try greed, selfishness, arrogance, stupidity, laziness and blind faith as causes [for starters].
Nothing can be done about it. Even those who say change needs to be done will not change enough.
I'M 67 and played upon Galveston Island beach as a child and there is no see level rise. With the sea level rise at end, another ICE AGE BEGINS.
Yes, Ice Age = bad news
Just because you can't see doesn't make it any less real
I have just checked the Danish Met Institute Graphs, and Arctic temperatures have fallen by 2.5C over the past six years, that's Winter Spring and Autumn, Summer temperatures on average have not changed over the last 30 years. Arctic sea Ice extent has also been increasing since 2015 We were supposed to see the Arctic Ice free in summer by 2012 Antarctic sea ice was at an all time record in 2014.
Thought it is type of ice that has changed and thickness.
Arctic sea ice free summer - 2035. This is real and not good!
Of course climate changes because of earth trajectories - stop wars and destruction and adapt to suit the changes - almost all conflicts are of religious origins and others through ideologies of individuals like the current global cabals aiming at world domination.
I think you explained the answer to the Fermi paradox. It all makes sense. This is probably the easiest possibility for a great filter
The Fermi paradox makes perfect sense. There's plenty of reason to speculate that our kind of behavior is a reflection of cosmic behavior, once beings gain the ability to manipulate nature. Complex intelligence may commonly lead to greater violence.
I made a joke its harvest time . With all the questions through history where did the Mayans & ect. go ? Harvest it scared me when I wondered where ARE all the human bones from old ...
@@paulthomas963 Yep.
This is pretty obvious to people my age(38) than the new generation because they are not used to seeing 5 ft of snow like I did when I was 5 years old living in Wisconsin the whole time. I don't barely see even a foot of snow almost all winter now
Wisconsin here, too; plus I grew up in the Rocky Mountains. When I was a kid, we used to go drive past a glacier on Sunday drives. Even my aunt, who was married at the base of that glacier in the 1970's, didn't realize that it has melted away entirely now. Why doesn't she see it? Because in Utah, climate change has consequences so dire and immediate that you can't really acknowledge how bad it is--it's too awful to admit. Even as the snowpack that used to last until the end of August is now gone in June, and the fresh water source of that melting snow is gone with it.
I moved to Wisconsin for the omnipresence of water, and the weather--including the cold winters. In the 14 years since, winters have only twice been close to the historical norms. People of our generation came along when the science was strong but the anti-science had just begun. When you have the genuine science come along at the right time to absorb it, and see the impacts shortly after, I think it may have made us more likely to be immune to the propagandists.
@@paintedwings74 What many don't want to realize it this planet is everchanging. There have been ice ages that have lasted thousands of years. I might not be ready for one myself, but I am definitely at better odds than many are of surviving whatever mother nature throws at us
Pretty obvious? It recently snowed in Texas.
@@jesperlykkeberg7438 Thats why it's called climate CHANGE and not global WARMING. The climate is experiencing more extreme shifts in weather.
Once you understand that, you'll see how one area could be having warmer winters with less snowfall, while another area could be having colder weather with more snowfall
If you are genuinely curious, there are answers to that. Warmer winters mean a slower, wavier jet stream (more similar to the summer jet stream). The atmospheric motion of the jet stream keeps the arctic and subarctic air masses largely separated from each other. With the increased “waviness” of the warmer jet stream, you get large southward dips that carry arctic air into southernly latitudes. So the average air temperature is warmer, the arctic air is warmer, and the winter jet stream is weaker. However the now-warmer arctic air is still far colder than the air that would be typically above, say, Texas. So you get extreme winter events south of the arctic, while temperatures warm and ice decreases in the arctic.
I spoke to someone yesterday who said that one person online had told him that we’ve never had so much glacier ice.
How are people fooled so easily?
😂
Fundamentalist religion is the root of most of the gullibility that allows a large part of the population to be manipulated to be anti-science. This is particularly true in the US.
Dunning Kruger.🙄
@@johnhenry6771 and how do we do that on a practical basis?
Adapting that Kipling quote further, I imagine the IPCC board at the next press conference wearing shirts that say: "I'm a climate scientist. If you see me panicking, you should probably panic too." 😐
I enjoyed your presentation, however I feel you should present the lowest and highest temperature predictions not just the highest ie RPC 2.6 and RPC 8.5.
Considering past predictions have been at or below RPC 2.6.
Been following your channel for some time now. What really amazes me is the use of graphics popularizing the concepts behind the research that you are sharing. This should be home work for teachers, pupils, parents, and politicians alike
Thank you poulha. I really appreciate your feedback :-)
It’s been wonderful to see the production quality of your channel improve over the years. As dreadful as the information is, it is important to be made aware of.
@@JustHaveaThink your research looks like it was done in the children section in a library that hasn't been updated since 1993.
@@JustHaveaThink also, you should probably read what the great physicists like Einstein and Feynman thought about peer review. Here, I will just tell you. It's stupid, like your videos.
@@kayakMike1000 😂😂 mdh
I enjoy your streaming timing 10-20 min is enough to pass all important information
I've ALWAYS based my physical science assessments on how long they are. I once commended Albert Einstein on his papers being able to be skimmed through by me in 17 minutes. Perfect science because solely of that.
All lies.
Appreciate your calm spirit. Your wisdom appreciate.
Great coverage
I cant understand the surprise that the arctics are where the most heat differences are manifesting. Who else remembers the science class experiment of bringing water to a boil and measuring the temperature and recording its rise along with the time of eaxh measurement.
The water doesnt heat up untill the ice is completely gone. When the northern ice cap melts comoletely the arctic ocean may warm beyond freeze ability .
In 1924 there was a similar very rapid warming of the Arctic. The explorer Spefenson reported young thin rotten ice between Alaska and the North Pole. There was no ice around Spitsbergen. Glaciers were me!ting rapid!y. If I check the official global temperature records this was at a time when the Earth was at it' s coldest in the last 100 years. How can this be?
We are actually cooling. They give you statistics to fit their narrative.
Notice that nobody will give you a compelling answer & understand that data from this period & beyond has been erased or ignored by mainstream
Science
It wasn't similar at all. 2001 to 2007 was a bifurcation event leaving the sea ice in a state it hasn't been in probably since the early holocene. There is no way this bifurcation can be reversed given current ghg forcing.
They have tampered with the temperature records and reduced the temperature 1920-1940.
@@chrisreed5463 But why are the the early 1920's shown to be the coldest recent period when all the contemporary evidence is that they were not? 1921 had record heat across USA and Asia. I checked the historic temperature records of the Arctic ports and they all show similar temperature in the 20s to today. What do you mean by a bifurcation event?
thank you for such clear revues
Thank you for taking the time to make this video, which is clear, short enough yet very explanatory.
except that its nonsense. There isnt going to be a devastating climate collapse. Note the question mark he has after his headline statement. It means he doesn't even back it himself.
Its big industry and companies doing the bulk of the polluting. They make us feel like its our fault exclusively and we must change.
Yeah these same companies that provide the crap that you probably buy!
It is your fault, turn off the Electric, don't buy anything made from oil, don't use animal products. Sack cloth and ashes is not a good look. Cosmetics, don't buy them. Drink nettle tea, it has no airmiles. Nett Zero is unobtainable it is a fantasy of rich westerners. Ask a typical African what it means to them. Nothing. They will continue to burn fire wood to heat their food, as they have done since the dawn of hominids on this planet. Desertification is mostly because they cook using wood fires. Use wood, get a stone age axe, go cut trees, cook out. The belief that the UK can make do without fossil fuels are deceiving themselves. 12000 wind turbines is no where like enough will need 151000 of them and the fact that the UK has shutdown another two nuclear power stations (not capable of getting energy from Scotland to England) means that 3000 Km of Moroccan HVDC interconnector is still on the drawing board. In the whole history of energy production, as soon as something makes a bit of money, it is nationalised. The only people to benefit from Nett Zero, will be Banks and Corporations, dealing in financial instruments.
CLIMATE ENGINEERING is the main reason for weather-related issues, including the overall warming of the planet. (Pollution plays a small part). The governments will deny it, but weather manipulation has been happening since WW2. There are over 160 patents for weather modification, so we absolutely have the technology to do it. Wherever you might live, look up in the sky and you will notice periodically smoke-like aerosol trails coming from commercial and military planes. These trails are filled with TOXIC aluminum, barium, strontium, etc. NANOPARTICLES that are manipulated by microwave energy(generated by HAARP and cellphone towers) to create droughts, floods, snowstorms, you name it. They are also extremely harmful to human health. There are many players with different agendas. PLEASE INVESTIGATE FOR YOURSELF. KEEP AN OPEN MIND. czcams.com/video/fEKdGa8-I24/video.html www.geoengineeringwatch.org/the-dimming-full-length-climate-engineering-documentary/
The crazy idea that tinkering politicians would have a thermostat knob that they can turn on with measures paid for by taxpayers Stop the climate scam and green corruption with taxpayers' money
I've been wondering.... How do you animate the research articles, figures and other graphics??? One of the best-looking science-related channels on CZcams!!!
Adobe After-FX i'm 90% sure
ArcMap or ArcGIS and likely Adobe After-FX help.
THIS is NOT a science channel at all, clearly you do not know enough about this subject to realize YOU are being conned, stop being so gullible and do some real research on what the broad range of scientific studies have shown over the decades.
@@peterjones4180 are you alright?
@@Splarkszter Better than that i am RIGHT !
This video is simply propaganda designed to convince the ignorant and gullible that something unusual is happening with aspects of climate, just another in a long series, when an examination of both the overall data, and the long history of such claims over the last fifty years have shown them to be spurious.
Temperature, weather and climate are ALL TOTALLY within normal variability for our current interglacial.
The data is VERY clear.
Denial, anger, bargaining, depression, acceptance. We have the denial part down pat, time to move on to anger and actually do something.
I've just now noticed from the uni bremen (deutsch) time series that there's an approximate cycle 3-4 years long of Arctic Ocean sea ice minimum (September) extent on top of the slow downward trend from 2006-2022 that didn't exist 1972-2006 (the period of their time series). So highest minimum extent years within a cycle were 2009, 2010, 2013, 2014, 2017, 2018, 2021, 2022 and lowest minimum extent years within a cycle were 2007, 2012, 2016, 2020 (of which 2007, 2012 were bigger & famous). Not anything like a Sine wave, they can't be overlaid for a really good match but there's something there. So if a cycle exists then 2023 will be lower than 2022, 2024 will be lower than 2023, and 2025 will be higher than 2024 (so 2024 will be lowest in the cycle). As I stated that's a rather cyclic-looking pattern laid ON TOP OF the slow downward trend of minimum sea ice extent. Hey, I almost made a prediction, never hardly done that before (I'm like Guy McPherson's lazy, handsome younger brother who just grunts "beats me" if you ask him "So what d'you think will happen about ").
What trend?
When did Al Gore say we would have an ice-free Arctic at his Nobel prize ceremony?
7 years ago. It was supposed to happen in 2015.
Who gives a shit about Al Gore? He's some guy with no particular qualification to talk about climate issues.
Thank you for reading all these papers and bringing them to life in a video.
Yes though I thought Jason Box looked pretty creepy brought to life.
This guy is a Wanker and while showing reports from 2012 then quickly states that there has been no change since! Why doesn’t he list links to these papers? Because they are written by frauds who need grants and to keep obtaining them they need drama.
Another pathetic woman being scared by a white man!
He is paid to do it. Someone needs to keep the narrative!
Preaching the fear
I like to think that humanity will respond in a way we can make a good movie about.
That is the key. We have to be relatable, not perfect, and our flaw has to become our strength.
Here in Puerto Vallarta MX, the first wave of winter change hit us. El nino is here. I was first a tourist and became a resident in this region. When young it was dry with a rainy season, now we move into much more rain as the changes occur. Hurricanes were rare, int 4 years we have been directly hit by two severe cyclones and one with torrential rains 2 days later. I have been in the rain forests of Brazil Colombia, Phillipines and Thailand. That rainfall was the first time I feared for my life and my neighbors. If a person fell on their back the rain was the equivalent of fire hoses in the face. We live on ridges of the sierras and wet air moves in from the Pacific, meanwhile those same neighbors drive Ford Rangers and Chevy Suburbans as daily cars. We need a way to change their desire to be that potentate in the covered palanque travelling alone. The desire for personal transportation is overwhelming in a nation that needs good public transportation.
This all makes me wonder why anyone would move to Florida or any lowland coastal area. The costs of redoing all the infrastructure along the coasts as the sea levels rise or just finding places for everyone to move to if all those places are abandoned are astonishing - a much larger cost than changing our habits and using renewables.
Carbon capture is still best done by not ruining what forests we do have and planting more in places that can support them.
It's because sea level isn't rising by 50 meters over night, but more like 15 cm or 6 inches every 15 years. You will be able to live in most parts of Florida for many decades, maybe centuries with a little bit of engineering magic.
Bc Florida is a fantastic place to live....I live in the Keys. Yes, water is rising.....slowly. And we are preparing.
Because they don't understand non linear systems are non linear.
@@adampope5107 very interested in your comment. Does it suggest sea level rise will be non linear over time, ie spurts of rises more than 1 standard deviation from the mean, during certain time periods? If so, I would sincerely wish to learn more....thx.
@@frederickmatthews4259 absolutely. Check out the meltwater pulses of the early Holocene. Rates possibly above two inches a year have occurred before.
en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Early_Holocene_sea_level_rise
The Hunga-Tonga-Hunga-Hapai underwater eruption last January ejected tons of ocean vapor into the upper atmosphere imposing some degree of warming albeit temporary to global rise according to a NASA report last August. These anomalies are not usually taken into account in computer modeling (well maybe now) but look at this year's droughts and floods which mostly attributed to climate change but possibly to this volcanic eruption.
"imposing [a] 0.5°C global rise according to geologists."
What is the source for that assertion?
@@Tengooda you could look yourself
@@Tengooda Most vocanic eruptions cool the atmosphere with aerosols that block sunlight, but not the HTHH volcanic eruption which will cause temporary warming as the water vapor some 400,000 tons is in the stratosphere and will remain there for about a decade. I think the article mentioned it could cause a T rise up to 0.5°C estimate.
@@williamm8069 A NASA article entitled "Tonga Eruption Blasted Unprecedented Amount of Water Into Stratosphere" dated 2nd August 2022 states, "the huge amounts of water vapor from the eruption may have a small, temporary warming effect, since water vapor traps heat. The effect would dissipate when the extra water vapor cycles out of the stratosphere and would not be enough to noticeably exacerbate climate change effects", but makes no mention of 0.5°C warming. I have not found that figure elsewhere - that is not to say it does not exist, but if you cannot provide a source you should withdraw it, particularly as you appear to be attributing some of this year's climate events to that eruption.
@@Tengooda I read that NASA article as well and was surprised but I was trying to find the source for you. Geologyhub YT channel mentioned the warming effect but I read it from another source. It could just have been scientists speculating without actual measurements. I know academically I should retract the statement but I was hoping someone else could have pointed it out. 400,000 tons of water vapor 60 km high in the atmosphere definitely made a disturbance to the jet stream and climate - the question is how much disturbance? I do remember the article mentioned the water vapor will remain for several years to almost a decade.
Thanks for the info 👍
Responsible report. Appreciate.
Man these are some scary implications. I hope humanity can act on the problems before we see them and can't do anything
Not much chance of that but yes would be nice if it was an entirely different species than the one I got born into.
You are all chumps .
@@grindupBaker go travel extensively and then you'll see this rubbish is make believe white man's crap.
seeing how the world is only getting safer and more prosperous, what are we supposed to act on, Seratina?
@@grindupBaker another leftist who hates mankind. it's a mental illness and religion with you miscreants.
And since that day, lying is walking around wearing truth clothes and people accepting him, while truth remained in the deep well, people deny her and refuse to see her.. naked.
By the way you did not mention the Antarctic sea ice hit an all time HIGH!!!!!
Great Info Video,and very sad state of climatic affairs,but we still have a chance of preventing the worst,and many people are working on parasitical solutions,including myself so everyone please hang on best you can.Thanks For The Hard Work
No, we’re doomed to overheating , we have been for 40 years…
But shortly before that (1970s) we we doomed to global cooling and new ice age😂.
The only difference now is they’ve made it a business, created fear, manufactured the problem, applied taxes to the population and created a supposed saviour in themselves.
Parasites, the lot of ya
I've reached a point where I'm so self aware of the reality of situations that I'm just constantly numb because I know no matter how much people do or say: the people in control and in power positions won't do anything that comes anywhere close enough to help this situation. They do a PR project here & there to make it look like they are getting into addressing the situation but they aren't. Everything is so slow, so cumbersome, so tedious with bureaucracy/geopolitical legislation nonsense that it basically makes the simplest most straight forward stuff unattainable to achieve. *I swear a group of normal average people who are passionate and knowledgeable about things would be a million times better and efficient at controlling and running this situation than anything we currently have going on in the world. *I'm honestly a very optimistic and dreamy person that loves to think about all these amazing things we COULD do. I just get frustrated with how modern day society is honestly. That's all.
Absolutely - one accident in Fukushima and the war in Ukrain have more influence on the energy sector than 50 years or warnings from the scientific community.
Very frustrating to watch this happening.
Because most of people will never do an uncomfortable change till they feel it on their skin. Till it hurts. Idk, maybe it is natural after all. Same with the global changes. Same with e.g. Hitler, millions had to die in order to make majority of people see things as they truly are, not to lie to themselves.
Why not destroy your own standard of living by voluntarily becoming zero carbon today?
No one is stopping you but you, unless you aren't a real true believer, you are a true believer aren't you?
@@timfallon8226 There are very few modern occupations that could sustain a personal zero-carbon lifestyle without our infrastructure being zero-carbon.
Dont let the numbness stop you, go demonstrating, try to reach your representatives, even if it seems hopeless dont give up, if enough of us go and do something we can still get the ball rolling. Dont be parallized by the impending doom, each and every voice is a step closer to a solution.
I'm always hesitant to click on these videos of yours because hopeful game-changing stuff is always easier to hear. The scale of the problem is so immense it is hard to grasp. Thank you for your videos.
We're doomed. Everyone jump off tall buildingd
A sign. that the end. Is near
It's a scam.
@@josephfrank6815 I wish all the climate change scammers would jump off tall buildings. It would have saved at least 3 women from getting RAPED BY AL GORE allegedly.
@@victorjcano The end of your freedom is near if you buy into the commie climate scam.
Great piece!
So why is the arctic ice still there if it has been melting much faster? It was predicted to be completely gone durings summers many years ago. How does this fit in with collapsing far more quickly than previous models?
No it wasn't. There were like two models that had the most extreme outcomes of the most extreme scenarios showing that maybe, possibly, if we get extremely unlucky, the Arctic could melt in the 2010s.
I know it's hard to understand, but something having an absurdly low chance of happening doesn't mean it 100% will happen.
Thank you for all your videos. They gave me courage to start working in solar PV industry.
Thanks Adam. Great to hear. Good luck in your chosen career...I think you will be a busy man for decades! :-)
Thanks for being part of the solution.
wake up and read some history. Temperatures of 1930 were basically same. Moreover, all these new predictions have failed.
And here I just read about the Thwaits in the antarctic collapsing faster than originally thought. Outstanding. We're just all kinds of screwed
Great stuff. With the shutdown of the AOMC, also consider the impact on atmospheric dynamics and Mother Nature's correction to the problem, by the cooling of the Arctic and increased snow production across mountains and Greenland. It is a complicated Rube Goldberg affair with unexpected consequences.
AMOC
Yes, true, and by now we know that it has happened before (at the end of the last Ice Age, when the North American mega-lake Agassi emptied into the Atlantic leaving behing it some 'ponds', today'[s Great Lakes), the climate cooled temporarily suddenly because AMOC was interrupted). The thing is that at that time, humanity totaled a few millions of individuals living in caves and riverside/coastal hamlets.
Today we are above 8 billions and we are tagging along some trillions of dependents (pets and industrially-bred animals) plus a fragile world economy - if Mother Nature decided to self-correct, human civilization would be torn to shreds with billions of victims!
@@paulthomas963, yes, the global mean temperature has been rising and the polar ice caps, glaciers and permafrost are melting quickly.
The thing is that this rise in temperature brings more unstable climate. so our winters do tend to get colder and more snowy.
Where is the problem in that?
Scientists: its an emergency and we need to act now.
Politicians: I hear you. War it is.
Politicians are elected. You can’t point the finger at them!
@@nirvonna this sounds like you were born yesterday :)
Incredibly interesting comments! I read so many, my brain insists some Music is needed, now. ❤ Many thanks for the Reality Lesson. ✌ See you again.
Thanks for listening
Dear Dave, Again I commend your timely and excellent use of the channel. Slowly, slowly more people are realising there really is serious heating of the planet happening. And heating results in climate chaos. Enough said, for the time being. Kind regards
unfortunately most would only realise the gravity of the situation once the water starts pouring
Thanks Brian. Much appreciated
Heating is normal coming out an ice age.
Climate destabilisation is the word.
@@Poepad - Really? The fact that we are warming faster than anytime in the last 50 million years doesn't cause you pause?
I’m looking at the PIOMAS cite for the most recent month, Dec 22, and it says “Average December 2022 ice volume was 1.1 standard deviations above the 1979-2021 rend line.” Also “The December time series … have no apparent trend over the past 11 years.”
The front page of the piomas site shows a graph of sea ice volume with a negatively sloped linear regression. The caption tells us that the ice volume is the seasonally adjusted ninth lowest on record. Being 1.1 standard deviations above the trend line is not unusual for one datapoint. I cannot find the quote about the December time series, but I am not surprised because the statement itself ambiguous to the point of being meaningless.
Religious fruitcakes are not a good source of science information.
By installing a Planetary Air Conditioner the question becomes, what is your heat footprint? Mine prevents 250 tons of ice from melting per year. What have you done?
I remember reading about 3 of these studies and it is amazing how little attention their findings received even in the articles themselves, now that I know more about the research after watching this.
My goodness how on earth could they be considered important when the queen has just died ???
@The Proof Is in the Plants - and fungi
No one cares anymore. The fluoride, the chemicals in our water and food, are now paying off doing what they were destined to do. Make us docile. Not care.
Disclosure? hahahahaha. Naaah.. I would rather play my cell phone games...
@@johnduncan5117 It wouldn't have mattered whether The Queen had died or not - the politicians, big businesses and oil barons would still be doing as little as possible to try and rectify this situation.
They want us to be distracted by as many events as possible. If it wasn't the death of our monarch, it would have been continued focus on the Ukraine, tensions with China, another of Trump's rants, etc, etc.
I'm beginning to wonder if the majority of the human race is actually quite mad, because I 'personally' know of no one at all who is trying to amend their own lifestyle, reduce their personal impact and live in a way that tries to put at least some of their personal wrongs right.
Yes, I see some people in the comments sections are rightly 'concerned' and, for the most part, probably do little individual bits and pieces (install solar, go vegetarian/vegan, buy an EV, convert their farm from traditional to sustainable methods, join birth-strike, pledge never to fly in a plane, boycott Amazon, etc, etc).
But I'm beginning to think that I'm reading comments from the same few 'concerned' people, while the vast majority steer clear of such channels as this (evident by the pathetic number of 'likes'), switch off climate news when it appears on the TV, and are still bumbling along, doing what they always do, saying nothing about what's happening around them as if ignoring the problem will make it magically go away.
What most of the people who do nothing to change don't seem to realise is - they're going to be right in the middle of the worst of climate change at an age when they have grown 10-15 years older and therefore much more vulnerable than they are now.
If they don't become victims of climate related conditions, they'll be victims of those who are younger, more tolerant of extreme conditions, and violent enough to take advantage of them in times of utter desperation.
That's because the world knows that these predictions are garbage. Have you not noticed that we're constantly on the brink but never actually crossing these unbased "tipping points"?
So now they're creating "tipping points" that can imperceptibly be crossed. Ones that only they can observe? Our buying into this crap is only feeding the machine. And the machine will continue to perpetuate itself. This is not Science, its research funding machinations.
@@johnduncan5117 what queen?
All Ive seen in the news lately is 8 seperate murder cases in London this week alone by the blm brigade and dozens of thickets being tried or convicted of illegal sex acts usually with children or employees or public.
I mean, we're almost certainly looking at a 3 Centigrade increase -- trying to calm ourselves by still talking about what would have happened had we done the right thing 20 years ago is just preventing people from seeing what the future will really be like.
#permafrost
And yet the climate models have consistently over-predicted warming and have repeatedly been revised to show less warming. It was an interesting hypothesis back in the 80s but has since become a political hoax.
@@kirklaird8345 that's not actually the truth.
Initially the models over predicted, bevarar there were buffets like the pema frost. And now we're running out of buffers, and it's turning the other way.
We know how much energy the sun insolates. We know how much the carbon blanket keeps. It's very basic science. Predictions from the 1800s were confirmed by satellites in the 80s. The only question is where that energy gets stored. And the more carbon we add, the faster we store more of it
Where do you think it gets stored?
@@jonwatte4293 They are gaslighting you. CO2 is a greenhouse gas, but the wavelengths it absorbs and then emits are nearly totally absorbed. Adding more CO2 has very little effect. The models used the assumption that the forecasted slight increase in temperature due to CO2 would cause a significant increase in water vapor content in the atmosphere. This "accelerated feedback" mechanism was the main driver of the forecasts of increasing temps but it didn't happen. They have had to repeatedly revise climate models to account for the fact that temperature just hasn't increased like it was supposed to. In fact climate scientists cannot model cloud formation - which, after the sun's radiation, and our own atmosphere is the most important factor in climate.
You should ask yourself this: If climate science was "settled science" then how did they overlook the so-called buffers you mention and why have all the forecasts been wrong requiring models to be repeatedly revised? The Maldives are still not submerged. The oceans are still rising at the same rate they have been rising for 150 years (about 1" per decade) and the Arctic summer sea ice is still there - and it hasn't changed much since 2006.
@@kirklaird8345 and why are there so many models that produce wildly differing predictions?
Excellent my friend!
good stuff!
Another excellent video. Really appreciate the presentation being backed up with links to the source material. The stuff on climate and videos done on new and alternative energy engineering are greatly appreciated by a layperson like myself - gives me a reason to consider that we humans might be able to find solution to our existential problems after all, and maybe realize that we can and need to do a better job of how we conduct ourselves in regard to the planet.
Thanks Shaney. Much appreciated
@@JustHaveaThink you old hippies failed at your jobs to avoid this 50 years ago now you blame old inaccuracies to justify it.
Has anyone researched if A.I. has analysis of G,W.??
@@vince55sanders - It wasn't the hippies that failed, look at the 1980's 'Greed is Good' Reagan Revolution. He tore out the solar panels that Carter put in and opened up the 'drill baby drill' mentality that continues today in the 'Red' party.
We may go net zero, but that will not change nature.....
The climate is changing.... but we are not the be all end all when it comes to the equation......
There's many natural processes at work here..... the magnetic poles are shifting and have accelerated over the last 100 years.... this has decreased the strength of the magnetosphere allowing the energy from solar coronal mass ejections to have a greater impact on our atmosphere.... this in turn has helped change the trajectories of the jet streams, upsetting our "normal" weather patterns.....
There is also the chandler wobble which effects the geographical north and south axis.... the earth wobbles in precession every 26,000 years.....
There's also the milankovitch cycle..... this changes earths cyclical precession around the sun from a circular shape into a oval shape. This creates tidal heaving in earths core and continental plates, leading to more earthquakes and volcanic activity.....
None of the above we can do much about.... that's why we're not told about it in the news daily, they also can't sell us a solution to these problems...... notice how many are buying bunkers though?
We do however need to change our behaviour, we can do more to stop poisoning our environment and the air we breath, this is our home, let's stop poisoning the well before we can't anymore.
Peace, power and freedom to all.
Fantastic stuff. Keep it coming!
Commie lies. No more please.
Just to clarify for you'all basic info, the yellow dashed outline at 0:12 labelled "Arctic Circle" that's drawn precisely when Mister Think says "the Arctic Ocean" certainly isn't an outline of the Arctic Ocean, not even close. The "Arctic Circle" includes huge chunks of Greenland & Barents Seas that aren't in the Arctic Ocean except perhaps the northern-eastern bit of Barents Sea and a tiny sliver of the western Greenland Sea (scientific establishments seem to be using the area that was iced up a few decades ago as "Arctic Ocean" for their analysis). Arctic Ocean starts with Kara Sea, so it's the part east of the long narrow Novaya Semlya islands, and across to Svalbard and Greenland. The Arctic Ocean also includes Hudson-James Bay & down the east coast of Asia southeast of the Bering Strait, all part of the Arctic Ocean. I mean the Arctic Ocean for sea ice extent & volume of course because I'm assuming that's the main thrust of Mister Think's topic. You see the outline of the Arctic Ocean definition being used for ice clearly on some of the scientific establishments' Web Sites where they keep track of sea ice extent & volume. For the analysis of sea ice area & volume from all the scientific establishments that you've all seen for many years the sea ice analysis is evidently based on ~15,300,000 km**2 to ~17,300,000 km**2 total Arctic Ocean area, far more than Mister Think's 14,060,000 km**2 area shown here. I've been using 16,300,000 km**2 because it seems to be approximately the average of what's used. **** Update, I quote verbatim from the Barents sea paper in this video "Barents sea ice cover is largely affected by sea ice transported from the Arctic Ocean". Obviously, sea ice couldn't be transported from the Arctic Ocean into the Barents Sea if the Barents Sea was in the Arctic Ocean so that right there is a definitive statement by the Arctic Region expert scientists that the Barents Sea isn't in the Arctic Ocean.
@grindupBaker The yellow dotted line DOES NOT indicate the Arctic Ocean Grindup, it indicates the Arctic CIRCLE, which is why 1) it's a circle and 2) it it clearly says "ARCTIC CIRCLE" next to the line. You've really got your 'Mr Pedant' hat on for this video haven't you! Maybe, just on this occasion, you should have added a pair of spectacles to the ensemble ;-) xxx
@@JustHaveaThink Not sure if I looked a that and corrected it before or after you noting it. Just now saw your comment (I'm bouncing between 5 videos). Show off your special eye balls by measuring 2008, 2010 & 2019 average Arctic Ocean September sea ice extent on the plot where for some strange reason meaningless lines were drawn between the 42 data points at czcams.com/video/tvtBH0ZXAKU/video.html at 3:31.
Thankd for your Nice presenteiam, Dr Ana Maria from Brasil,
The summer of 2011 we had 60 days of triple degree heat and then the lowest sea ice level was recorded in 2012. This year with all the global heat waves going I’m placing my bet that 2023 Artic sea ice will be the lowest Ever recorded or no sea ice at all next summer. Hope next year I’m not saying I told u so.
Ha, ha, ha…. I’ll take that bet.
So do we just do nothing and let the lack of action continue or do we seriously take to the streets and not accept it, after all - it is our planet!
Oh, my, my apricots might argue with you about this subject. All 5 of my apricot trees froze their blooms off for the second year in a row.😢😢
Thank you!
The northern hemisphere sea ice extent is larger than it was in 1972.
I don't think you're allowed to cite actual facts here. Only frightening forecasts for the gullible.
I wonder if people are also concerned about maintaining stability in the Sahara desert? I love the use of the words *modelling* and *likely* in the description. Every year we're told the polar ice caps are melting and every year they refuse to comply.
Cherry picking and misinterpreting data doenst change the observable facts of a continuesly shrinking ice volume at the arctic.
Now tell us about the VOLUME. That's what actually matters, not the extent (or area).
@@TheCompleteGuitarist If you put ice blocks in a drink and wanted to know if they were melting, how would you check? Would it be by the surface area of ice visible looking down on your drink, or would you glance sideways at the glass to see the actual size (volume) of the ice cubes remaining?
Cold in Gothenburg for the time of year. The sea temperature in the Kattegat ie between Denmark and Sweden, has already dropped to 12 degrees by 18 September. It is about 3 degrees lower than normal for the time of year. The sea was also slow to heat up at the start of the summer. It was not comfortable for swimming any distance until the start of July, three weeks late.
@It’s OK but Talking of long term data sets - long established botanical establishments such as those at Edinburgh, Oxford, and Kew have been keeping records of flowering dates for more than 250 years but I sought in vain for the trend information.
The problem is that over that time scale there are other factors such as changes in solar radiation, changes in the earth's orbit due to precession, and volcanic eruptions. Separating all the possible causes is not practicable.
The Kattegat is not local - it is the main connection between the Baltic and the oceans and affects a large land mass.
This is likely the result of the Gulf Stream slowng down. It moves a vast amount of heat into the water off the NW coast of Europe. This resuts in a cooling of the sea water there.
So...if the ice isn't as thick as it used to be, where have those molecules of H2O gone?
We are in the middle of another emergency right now with record low temperatures and snowfall in Canada. Can we please have some of this warming that climate change is supposed to bring us, our heating bills are getting a bit hard to handle. Considering that the coastal areas of the US and Canada have become the place where the nut cases out number the sane a rise in sea level is very welcome. I've listened to both sides of the global warming argument from people that are all very well educated scientists and there seems to be as much for it as against it so I'm going to live as much the same as I always have as possible. One big argument against the doom and gloom world ending scenario is that all the lying corrupt politicians have wholeheartedly embraced it and are using it to tax people and force them to change how they live. Politicians never have peoples best interests in mind and are only concerned with power and getting reelected. If a politicians says something is a certain way then I can almost guarantee that it isn't.
It seems that we generally underestimate the role of the ocean on the climate. Thank you for spreading the word about this role, as it can be hard to wrap your head around sometimes, but is crucial to understanding the climate and why it is changing
If you look at a globe of the planet Earth - you realize that it really should be called planet Water.
The ones that have not have been freaking out for decades !
Consensus is not science .
Right from my pre-teen years; I was made aware of the importance of the oceans on our lives. The sun evaporates the ocean salted water ,which rises up and condenses in soft water droplets and gets carried away with the winds, and falls back on the land mass to grow stuff. So the most important thing on this planet is Water. The Sun just happens to be spotted at the right distance to trigger all the benefits that we enjoy.
Here’s a scary factoid to ponder. The oceans are absorbing far more heat than previously realized. If not for that mitigating factor the Earth’s atmosphere would already be an unlivable 195F.
All life would be dead already.
I am sure that this is not the first time that all this has happened, we just happen to be here to see it this time round.
i mean sure if you mean due to periods of high volcanic activity or asteroid impacts etc but its sort of irrelevant hey. There are 7 Billion of us here now and were all pretty dependent on a pretty narrow set of environmental conditions
@@vincentchauvet6654 As was all life that came before us, that's the nature of things.
Yeah, climate changed before... but it usually take THOUSANDS of years, never so incredibly fast. It's been proven, we are causing it..
@@vincentchauvet6654 there are only that many people on the planet because of fossil fuels not inspite of them. Would you rather two thirds of the world population starve?
WHAT MAKES YOU SO SURE,,,.
Any relation to magnetic pole shifting?
No.
@5:37 Has anyone considered the possibility of geothermal heat exchange in that area due to heated subsurface water from volcanic activity leaking into the ocean at that point? There are after all many studies suggesting that volcanic aerosols cause oscillation in artic sea ice, but has any
one actually studied the effects of the first mentioned.
What do we know of the artic ocean floor? Are there any geo thermal vents contributing to the rise in ocean temperature. The proximity of active artic volcanoes suggests that the picture may be a bit more interesting.
(1) "heated subsurface water from volcanic activity" is utterly minuscule (2) You're a Standard Troll.
There is a vast amount of human history hiden between today's sea level and 300 feet down.
Yes. It’s like humans think this isn’t cyclical and part of earth’s history. And always will be.
@@WenchInTheTinfoilHat Yes, 'it's like people' (extraordinarily intelligent and diligent scientists around the world) have done an enormous amount of extremely difficult "Research" using technology that you have little to no comprehension of. And you've got??? .... Idle prattle.
I like how this is structured and presented. Easy to understand, for us dummies. Thanks 😊
Only dummies would believe it though its nonsence
It is ghastly, having something so terrifying and nigh-inevitable explained in such a pleasant voice, and so well structured and presented. It would have been less unsettling if he had been screaming "RUN!! RUN!! YOU"RE ALL GOING TO DIE!!"
@@eshafto what is accually scary is you, and all those that so willing accept this nonsence. To blindly repeat its inevitable?? . Have you even looked at the artic ice data on a multitude of unbias sites, why are people so dumb to just simply believe without question, intelligent skepticism or analysis. It's how easy people can be brainwashed that's really scary. Really scary, and the reason is that ridiculous harmful policy is accepted due to this belief. He lays it out for dummies yes and the dummies believes it. I can tell you the artic ic is just fine and the absurd notion that it will melt in 10 years is ridiculous, but please don't take my word for it, don't be lazy research some unbias original sourse it's that simple.
@@eshafto or don't believe it!
to sell bs to religious zealot climate cultists
I wouldn't say believing an ice free arctic possible by 2022 is doom mongering.
If I remember right, even in 2017, winter maximum ice volume was so low that if as much volume as 2012 had melted out, we would have reached it and the trend really did look like it until a few years ago. There is research by Jennifer Francis that showed that a change in weather conditions due to more open water favors a cloudy summer, acting as a negative feedback that only came out less than five years ago (not sure of the date exactly)
Great video!
What I fail to understand is the difference between the winter maximum that will freeze the north Pole as far south as Oslo or the central states in the USA. Compare that to the minimum which is a huge contrast, and yet annually we notice no change in sea level.
As the snow falls outside my house, just like it did at the same time last winter, when we had two months longer winter than normal, we still get these model based studies that are trying to create more fear of the end of the world. Not mentioned, this winter will be an unprecedented third la nina in a row. Meaning colder than normal north pacific, meaning colder winters in the North, heavier than normal sea ice again for the fourth year in a row, etc.
Where do you live? Here in germany winters started to get without snow the last years.
Also global warming doesn't mean, everywhere it gets hotter, but weather changes get more extreme.
Also there was nothing said about "the end of the world" it isn't, but life will change!
@@DundG Thank you 👍 🙌 ❤
@@DundG - Consider something that is really and measurable happening - increased global axial tilt. Also consider the difference between winter and summer caused by this tilt. We have about a degree left in the axial tilt change. Be ready for more intense summers and winters.
Please also be aware of the concentration of co2 in our atmosphere - .04%. It falls too far and green growing things will die. Let these nuts go crazy and they may kill us all. Very similar to the job they have admirably already achieved with the honey bee.
@@DundG They told that in north the temperature will raise faster. Anyhow, we don't see it here in Finland. And moreover, the sea level is not rising here it is lowering.
the heating is happening in places where it shouldn't be like over the barent sea . the fact its getting colder where you are could be a knock on effect of a changing climate system
Unfortunately these dominoes will need to fall because we as a species are too stubborn to really change. Lots of pain to come before things turn for the better.
We are the frog in the pot slowly moving toward boil. We had an opportunity to "turn the temperature down" decades ago. Yes, the dominoes will fall, tipping points have already been met, in that if we cut back or stop, temps will continue to rise. There is a delay between the activity and the consequences. You are correct, lots of pain, and incorrect in things turning for the better. We have been lulled. We will not give up our comforts and we will not jump from the boiling pot. Much of this planet will not sustain human life in the future. This was avoidable.
With more heat comes more evaporation. With more evaporation comes more clouds. With more clouds comes more rain. With more rain comes....more life!
Ok, we have research on the Artic. Is this modeling going on in the antarctic? Is the antarctic ice field growing or shrinking? And if the Antarctic ice shield is growing, could this create wobbling in the earth's rotation and or balance the global sea rise?
Do we know if NASA or the met office have updated there sea level models based on this information?
Excellent presentation as always, some very clever techniques being used to great effect. Is there cause for concern, yep, there is no doubt about that!!!
Thanks Derek. Much appreciated
Superb video, well done as usual, thanks for bringing the latest science out so clearly. Shame the topic is so depressing…
Many thanks!
It's all lies.
All those BS models has failed.
The topic isn't so depressing if you don't believe the lies being promulgated.
Anyone care to share their thoughts on this one? czcams.com/video/n-W76C0kkwc/video.html
It's like when you lean back on a chair but once you reach the tipping point you can no longer prevent yourself from falling. But my question is, if we're already past several tipping points, and doom is inevitable, then do CO2 emission reductions still matter? Sounds like the chair is falling (in slow motion, but nonetheless). Perhaps we should spend the energy on figuring out how to make the landing as soft as possible.
Excellent question. The answer is to burn C into CO2 like it's going out of style, then there will be sufficient bounce from the impact to upright the chair again. I've read all comments against this video for safety to ensure that the head is solid enough, woody enough, encased in an ultra-thick bony case with minimal interior space, to ensure safety during the bounce process. It's utterly safe.
Thank you
Now semi-retired, I've spent much of my working life designing & manufacturing precision instruments for the geophysics community. You'll understand that my natural biases are towards making & archiving real-world measurements. I am skeptical of the accuracy of climate models that claim to predict the future, yet need to be "tuned" to make their postdictions of the past match the archived real-world data, & which then do a poor job of matching reality as the future arrives.
After all, our planet, along with the plants & animals on it, has survived much worse than a degree or two of warming over a century or three. As you mention in your introduction, we're only just ~15,000 years out of a long period of glaciation, with some forecasts suggesting that another ice age is likely within another ~15,000 years or so. The records from various sources, especially deep borehole ice cores from Greenland & Antarctica, tell us that there have been multiple ice ages in the past. Similarly, we also know that there have been many times that the Earth was much warmer than today, & both animal & plant life flourished with upwards of 6 or 7 times as much CO2 in the atmosphere as there is today. Let us not delude ourselves into thinking that we can easily engineer ourselves out of these slow but massive long-term climate cycles.
We need more data, especially over, & at extreme depths of, the world's oceans, & we need much more computing horsepower to improve the climate models to the point that they actually serve a useful purpose instead of simply exciting the alarmists into making more & more extreme forecasts of catastrophes in a distant future.
One of humanity's greatest talents is our ability to adapt to many different environments - using fire, clothing, man-made shelters, etc, etc. Let us carefully observe what happens as the decades go by. We can do a lot by preparing contingency plans that are flexible enough, & we being skeptical enough, that we do not risk all our treasure on unproven schemes.
What do you exectly mean by tuning? Some tuning is fine, some is problematic. The idea that every tuning is bad is wrong. Let me explain. A simple prediction is if X then Y. Let’s look at gravity. If I have a bal in my hand and I drop it, gravity would predict it would fall. The bal not falling would be a failed prediction under the condition I actually dropped it. This is quite obvious. However, many people that are critical of climate models forget this condition. They thus conclude that the bal not falling is a failed prediction no matter if I would actually drop the bal. Climate models don’t only predict the influence of changing climate drivers but also how the drivers change in the future. A simplified example is a model that if the CO2 concentration would increase to 800 ppm the temperature would increase with Y. Just because we don’t see a temperature rise of Y is thus not evidence that prediction failed because the CO2 concentration didn’t increase to 800ppm. To check if a climate model is accurate you need to tune is by providing the actual changes in greenhouse gas concentrations but also changes in other drivers like solar influx.
Yes, the earth experienced many climate changes. However that simply does not mean there can’t be an antropogenic influence on the climate.
I disagree with your statement that humans a so great at adapting to different surroundings. We adapt our surroundings to become how we like it, and that is exactly the problem. We don't adjust to live in harmony with nature, like animals do, we change nature to suit us. So, I see survival for only a handful, which will tell about the great flood that swept the earth, and it will turn into a myth for maybe the hundredth time in earth's history. And by the time the next civilisation starts to discover some proof for huge floodings in the landscape, it might already be too late again to alter their fate.
@@Vicartje Do you seriously think that humanity will be wiped out by the impacts of climate change? Given our immense numbers never yet seen before on Earth(about to hit 8 billion!), it would take uninhabitability of the Earth as a whole to truly kill us off. As you'll know, both the Arctic and Antarctic will be far more suitable for habitation if warming continues, while much of the Earth will remain habitable but under a different climate that will take getting used to. We may very well see a contemporary African humid period and a greening of the Sahara in the next century.
Show us your precision instruments that protect Fidji from drowning, Pakistan from being flooded, coral reefs from bleaching, Madagascar from catastrophic droughts... The future has arrived already.
Jrb_sland I read your comment and found it to be very well reasoned and satisfying. You remind me of Richard Feynman when he said: "When the models make predictions that are wrong then the models are wrong." Your last statement "... we being skeptical enough, that we do not risk all our treasure on unproven schemes." really strikes a cord in me. We can spend our entire GDP on CO2 reduction and only reduce the Global temperature a tiny fraction of one degree (F or C). We certainly do need to be very careful to adequately test our theories so that we can make the best use of our resources so that our expenditures can be worthwhile.
While I should probably find this terrifying i find it rather fascinating. It somehow reminds me of learning about ancient history.
CZcams algorithm aside, I like videos less than 15 mins long mostly. I can sit through longer documentaries, but mostly I have 10-15 minutes available.
Assuming there is a prediction. Why will this one be right after all previous predictions (based on similar climate models) have been wrong?
As an American Anglophile, I truly enjoy your accent. You speak English beautifully. To our point: The existential question about climate disaster SEEMS to be true.
THERE IS NO CLIMATE DISASTER !
Only those who have almost no understanding of the broad range of scientific studies think so.
Wouldn't you be more worried your fwit leader is doing his best to probably start a nuclear war?
James Tiburon: religious zealot whose god is Mother Earth
I wish we could just go back to another snowball earth! (When ice core samples for that period show approximately 25,000ppm CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere).
It was nice. Dragonflies were the size of VWs, in the tropics ,of course
Yeah this guy now has caught the CC bug. I presume every video from here on end will be more hysteria about the end of civilisation.
Cities like to think they can build walls against sea level rise as a solution while keeping the status quo.
Thank you for the information. Now we know and knowing is half of the battle. Please do a video on what we, the average human being, can do to help. I, personally, can't find any useful lists of what I can do to help. All I can find is doom and gloom.
Great suggestion. We can't all continue on as we are, obviously, and we apparently can't rely on global leaders to effectively initiate change through political means. So it's up to us. Raising awareness is a good place to start.
We all need to learn how to change our way of life to need less, consume less, and have less impact, while planning how to survive a near future where large numbers of people are displaced, along with less access to clean water, healthy food and clean energy. These changes for the worse are already happening.
How to start? Where to live? How to support ourselves? Being an isolated prepper doesn't seem like a viable long term plan, so what will work? We all need to work in our local communities to plan for the needs of the local populace. This is what people involved in the Local Futures movement recommend.
Either we all change our ways soon and begin working together toward solutions or it's likely we will descend into conflict over ever fewer resources, from which civilization would probably not recover.
I recommend greatwavesofchange dot org for a place to start.
get active in local groups that work towards and advocate for green living or system change. i think it's the best we can do
I have great respect for you Sir and your videos your a one off however its amazing to me how five papers are delivered showing a projected forth coming disaster of global warming nicely timed for all to arrive within weeks of each other the word collusion comes to mind loud and clear i live in the Irish midlands where for over thirty years as a hobby i measure summer and winter temperatures my results show that our summers are getting colder and shorter with a higher rain fall count and yes some winters are milder but nothing like the results you show from these papers you refer to in this video ,I believe there is change but nothing like the change governments want us to believe with their scare tactics trying to get us all to believe that farmers are responsible for over 30% of global warming the same people who want to close down farming are the very same people who are buying up farm land like its going out of fashion now please peer review this Sir.
Well said. The first question to ask these people is "Who "peer reviewed" the paper? Gee it wouldn't have been other climate "scientists" whose funding depends on finding disturbing results?
I like it when new research indicates that warming was previously underestimated, as it always does. It reassures me that their work is reliable, and that they're not pushing an agenda.
Are you the Messias? Because you seem to have achieved the impossible. Completely understanding a complex system. You realy understood science.
What you read is what the scientists are allowed to publish, so naturally it will always be the rosiest version. What's actually going on is _always_ worse than what gets published. ;-)
@@thomasking5970 I was being sarcastic. Of course they'll publish the most alarmist hyperbole they can, to justify continuing to suck taxpayers' money. Only self-hating soy boys and corrupt globalists take any notice of the rubbish they produce now, anyway. Unfortunately, that's who is running the west (into the ground).
Can someone tell me please an approximation of what year to expect for most of/all the ice be melted?
2056
NZ scientists found there is rapid record increased cooling and ice buildup on Antartica deep ice bores
Given how much ice has already melted. Have we seen actual sea level rises in last x years?
Twice a day!
Jokes aside, yes.
isn't weird how all those caribbean islands are still there with the ocean's rising? LOLOLOLOL
@@RobertMJohnson We'll talk again in 50 years.
Thank you for your research and interesting presentation.
Well done! 👍
Whenever there is news about climate science there is a word that always comes up... "underestimating" ... and this is the most scary thing. Not only is it bad, not only do we miss some details, but anytime we learn more it gets worse.
Not much. It's mostly that News is what sells. So for all these social-only venues, those of us who study the PHYSICAL science (so not the social "sciences") find it's either a modest change to what was previously published or it's no change at all over what's been given by scientific documents for many years, but rather it's just a synthesis of many of those older documents, a re-hash showing a bunch in one "new" document. All that's in this video, for example, has been known for many years and is simply a synthesis or re-hash for the purpose of making it News .... again. Something like 5% increase in the analysis results of past data or the modelling of future is the sort of thing that comes out every decade or so. For example, 71% open un-iced Arctic Ocean water for September for a decade and then 77% next decade, just roughly that sort of thing, a 6% increase in the faint September low-sunshine heating over the decade in that example.
Global pictorial for Sea surface temperature (SST) increase 1981-2021 is seen at realclimate site at "New misguided interpretations of the greenhouse effect from William Kininmonth" on 1 OCT 2022
You can sort-of see the Barents Sea somewhat-larger warming. Note the global picture of warming tropical, sub-tropical & all northern hemisphere but the Southern Ocean surface has cooled (it's warmed below though) and note what I've been commenting about in detail since 2014 when I noticed it, the ENSO cycle boosted starting 1995 (and apparently it hasn't returned to pre-1995 yet). You're looking at the famous "pause" or "hiatus" 1999-2015 on that pictorial and I think that also caused changes all over Earth.
I'd be interested to know how many climate scientists choose to have children, compared to other professions
Given the intense computational nature of climatology, you will probably find the results skewed by the "nerd" factor.
Geeks don't get laid.
@@dougaltolan3017 Think you have watched "Idiocracy" too many times.
@@hotdognl70 Maybe, if that is even possible.
But geeks not getting laid predates that film by decades.
@@dougaltolan3017 Alright but climatology isn't unique in that, so I'm really curious if whether what the data shows these people translates to less of them having children as a result.
@@HonestSonics I await your paper on this, should be an interesting read..
Possible confounding factor: If it really is the end of the world, shouldn't we be partying (including baby making), going out with a bang?
I like how you said leaders should declare a global emergency. Actually the first reaction i had to the pandemic being called an emergency was "boy do i have news for you lot. Just wait"
also since years ago, west antarctica was realised by some that it's past the point of return, so as you said about the dominoes. But they're already falling actually.
but anyway, we should still pay reparations to mapa before we get to the end of the line. FridaysForFuture is on this week please take a look at the cause and spread the word. It's a massive organised strike for real change
also dude i can't imagine how you cope with keeping up with the news so much. Maybe you're like me in some way and have just accepted the real possiblity (or perhaps now more than a possibility) of the worst future. But however you manage to cope i hope you take care. Thank you for sharing the journey with us, it's been really lovely and will continue to be really nice to share the road ahead
No, it's a scam.
Well, if you haven't checked what EU is doing, its just that. Apparently we have some kind of climate emergency therefore we collected 1 000 billion euros to 'battle against climate change'.. Just tell me what that money will do to battle against natural cycles?
On top of that, now we have electricity prices rising, because these green activists thought electricity comes from wall, but didn't understand the physics behind electricity production. Just have a think.
@@dj_e8 Green communist traitors.
meanwhile...the weather isn't murdering people by the millions.
Did you look up in the current situation, is record freezing this year
You know what I can't figure out?
How did those people build their houses under a glacier?
Why did italian soldiers dig their mountain fortifications and trenches underneath the glacier? That must have been really hard