We can’t save the West Antarctic. So what now?
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- čas přidán 3. 06. 2024
- It’s not often that I make a video with a title this bleak, but unfortunately, needs must. Several pieces of new research point to the inevitability of West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse, which is pretty bad news. But what we do with this bad news is still up to us.
Here, I talk to the lead author of one of these new papers, Dr Kaitlin Naughten. She tells me what it all means, including why we need to focus on adaptation, and why we must take courage, not hope, from this information.
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Contents
00:00 Intro
01:06 Who cares about the Amundsen Sea
01:58 What the study shows
03:06 Mechanisms of change
05:34 Can we trust it?
06:36 The link to sea level rise
07:02 Time to adapt
08:53 Why our actions DO matter
10:51 Courage vs hope
13:52 Thank yous
#ClimateChange #Antarctica
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References and resources
THE PAPER: Naughten et al. (2023) www.nature.com/articles/s4155...
Kaitlin’s twitter thread: / 1716472710107222440
Kaitlin’s article in The Conversation: theconversation.com/increasin...
Coverage in the Guardian: www.theguardian.com/environme...
Commentary in Nature (Sohail, 2023): www.nature.com/articles/s4155...
Carbon Brief on West Antarctic tipping points: www.carbonbrief.org/guest-pos...
Carbon Brief on tipping points in Pine Island Glacier: www.carbonbrief.org/guest-pos...
Reese et al. (2023) tc.copernicus.org/articles/17...
Hill et al. (2023) tc.copernicus.org/articles/17...
Armstrong McKay et al. (2022) www.science.org/doi/10.1126/s...
Garbe et al. (2020) www.nature.com/articles/s4158...
Joughin et al. (2014) www.science.org/doi/abs/10.11...
Park et al. (2013) agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.c...
Feldmann & Levermann (2015) www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas...
Joughin et al. (2021) www.science.org/doi/10.1126/s...
Morlighem et al. (2020) www.nature.com/articles/s4156...
Wiabel et al. (2018) agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.c...
Sutter et al. (2023) www.nature.com/articles/s4155...
Abrams et al. (2023) doi.org/10.1029/2022EF003250 - Věda a technologie
If you want to watch my full interview with Kaitlin head on over to my Patreon, where you can also sign up to help me keep these videos independent and ad-free. Sign up at www.patreon.com/dr_gilbz
My dear wonderful lady Doctor,
Under perpetual growth capitalism that demands a doubling in consumptions of energy and materials over each 33yr period in order to provide a long term average 3% GDP growth rate / return on investment in order to stave off its collapse, we cant save humanity and much of the complex life on the surface, never mind an ice sheet.
Here is my 20yrs of ecological, climatological, and economic study, from myriad lectures and the odd conversation with notable scientists and economists in relevant fields, boiled down to two paragraphs, see what you think:
No amount of wind turbines, solar panels, electric cars, green growth new deals, no new taxes, nor new regulations, and no technology today, nor any coming down the road, will ever be able to allow a consumption based perpetual growth global economic system such as capitalism, to outrun the immutable physics of a finite world.
Attempting to use technology, to make perpetual growth capitalism compatible with what immutable physics demands of humanity for it to have a viable future in perpetuity, is akin to putting on your best running shoes in effort to run up an ever increasing landslide. Sure you will make it a little further up with the techno wonder shoes than without them, but nature via physics already in motion will bury you alive in due course.
Best wishes Doctor.
oh p.s. In the 70yr life of my still living mother we have lost 70% of all animals and 50% of ocean phytoplankton that overall produces 80% of our oxygen supply. There are nine scientifically quantifiable barriers, "nine signs", any species must remain within the limits of for it to be able to sustain its population in balance with what the world can provide. Humanity is in breach of at least 3 meaning ice melt is probably going to be the least of our problems.
Koyaanisqatsi, life out of balance.
Thank you. On the positive side, I can only say that nothing lasts forever. Not even Antarctic ice sheets. Those ice sheets were there for 1000s of years so it is time for them to go.
I feel sorry for the animals. Also feel sorry for the innocent people and those who lacked education to understand what was going on.
however I couldn’t care less about most of the people in America that knew or should’ve known this was coming for decades and just didn’t give a rip. Only cared about money. Only care about themselves. Hope they get EXACTLY what they deserve.
With the fast temperature increases that we are seeing & the fact that so much heat has been absorbed by oceans, my concern is that acidification of oceans could happen faster than the sea level rise. The oceans as we know deal with 25% of CO2 to O2 process, so if they begin acidifying, the CO2 to C + O2 process slows leading to more heating.
You are glad luck to me. Thanks Doc. Glibz 💫
As your friend Jason Box says, “it hasn’t really sunk in, not even in the science community, that’s we’ve effectively lost the ice sheets. It’s only a matter of time before we see many meters of sea level rise and the world has to prepare for the catastrophe of the loss of coastlines and a retreat inland. Yet we’re acting like we can negotiate our way out of this”.
Exactly. The last time earth was over 400 ppm, temperatures were 3 degrees higher and sea levels were 10-30 meters higher than today. Baseline expectations should be that we return to that state, even if we stopped emissions immediately.
Nuclear winter will take care of the global heating and reduce human population to a percent or two of today's 8.1 billion. Negotiation will not be necessary nor possible. Boom.
Edited: spelling corrected 😅
Sea level rise is the least of our worries when it comes to climate change (a symptom of human biological overshoot).
Isn’t like our only hope a Hail Mary of geoengineering and then direct air capture?
I've been listening to a podcast series about general societal collapse (cheery topic I know!) and they just touched on exactly that point about so many of these articles ending with a rather jarring message of hope. I think that one of courage makes a lot more sense.
I just think it's crazy how short-sighted we seem to be about the future compared to the past. At least here in the UK, I remember learning about the Romans, and seemingly spending ages on the topic of the Tudors who were alive 500 years ago! This whole idea of "cathedral thinking", of being able to envisage and work towards something that you won't necessarily be alive to see is just not talked about anywhere near enough. Like you say...things will continue beyond 2100!
Yeah, it's something I'm going to try and keep in mind more in all the work I do. Loved the courage framing.
Had a similar thought from the US, and the constitution we use which is ~230 years old. It had/has its issues, as became evident 4 score and 7 years later - and that change took a LOT of courage (by Lincoln, for those not up on US history) - but still, we use it.
It's not unprecedented to create a courageous change that is thinking centuries ahead.
Hansen and associates have released a paper recently that should be a rude awakening for those who have held on to hope. 1.5 degrees is dead. We're already there. They expect us to cross 2 degrees by mid 2030's. That's game over.
@@Mike80528 It's not game over. But it's bad.
This is one of the few video i've seen online without this jarring message of hope. And you're 100% right, we don't need hope we need courage (and i'd add to that - truth). Like, yea it's good to be hopeful, ofc - but the problem with, even scientists in popular media ending things with "all is not lost, we have time and there's hope", while I get the idea is to ensure ppl don't just lose all hope and giveup, results in not enough action. After all, if it's not so bad, if there's still a lot of hope ,then why bother with the kind of crazy, sudden and massive societal changes that is actually required to ensure we come out of this in one piece?
A quote that your video reminds me of is “Hope isn’t a strategy”. We need to be taking drastic steps to save our future. Beyond just voting.
Thanks for featuring Kaitlin’s video. I have a stutter and it is so rare to see video featuring stuttering. The message is so important that it needs to be shared. I mourn the future loss of the Great Barrier Reef. Now I need to find a house above the predicated coastline. Keep up the good work.
I admire that young woman's determination to get her information across as well.
Everyone is born a genius. She is Boss level.
I have been trying to maintain hope for 40 years while politicians do nothing. It no longer matters to me, but I feel for our grandchildren who will have to live with the conssequences.
Iron dice has been rolled, now our generation must play the game.
God help us.
then fight, improve as many things as possible. While we as individuals are powerless to stop a greater collapse we can make it less bad then it would be if we do nothing
I feel with you. I have been trying to find hope for 30 years but of course hope is linked to action and we don't see any action. I have resigned myself to the fact that life as we know it is finished. The politicians and their narcissism led us to our demise. Everyone alive today will more than likely die as a result of abrupt climate change. Peace
Don’t forget we are still in the coal mine and we are out of canaries. It will take earth millions of years to sort out what humans have done in three hundred years. It has eternity
It is us who are increasingly living with the consequences
What a great video, Ella! Thanks for giving Dr Kaitlin Naughten the stage. It is an important paper and indeed a devastating read. 💔
Yeah, it's been a bad few months for West Antarctic research eh..?
Our situation is so maddening. First of all, the vast majority of people, even those that should know better, still act like we can somehow avert this. Or negotiate our way out of this with nature. Nothing could be further from the truth.
Second, while everybody pretends that this can and will have a nice, neat and good outcome, nobody is preparing for the world we will be living in. Nobody thinks about ways to adapt to a new reality, how to accomodate millions of displaced people, how to feed ourselves when we lose lots of fertile land _and_ lose yield on the remaining land due to the other effects of climate change. Nobody prepares for the wars that will result out of this catastrophe, because sadly, there will be wars, and they'll make our World Wars look like child's play in scale and atrocities. Nobody is making plans to move entire cities out of uninhabitable zones.
There is so much work to do if we as a species want to survive the coming centuries, especially the one we're in. And yet we're doing nothing at all.
exactly
Yes, this is what angers me as well.
Agree it is sad no one wants to invest in Adaptation.
Want to force our hand into likely disastrous sulfur in Stratosphere
Simply because there will be no "millions" of displaced people. Most cities will slowly grow away from rising sea levels to higher elevations or build dikes. Land in higher latitudes with untouched fertile soil will become simultaneously temperate for farming and replace the worn out farmland that is flooded. Humankind has flourished in much warmer times.
@@highdesertoffgrid4225 Oh, please, tell those fairy tales to those people living on islands, large or small, or extremely densely populated areas like Bangladesh. Why again is Indonesia right now building a replacement for Jakarta further inland?
I appreciate the note at the end, about not looking for hope necessarily but courage instead. This is perhaps because I have lost hope in the rosier outcomes that we might have achieved and found myself adrift as a result. Perhaps looking courage instead can provide the coordinates that I need to keep sailing in the right direction.
I feel ya Luudite, it is a great challenge to find and maintain a stable state in the face of the truth.
"We need courage, not hope" YESSS 💪 That's positive! That's how we can do what's possible. It may not be like we dreamed but it's much better than waiting for a miracle. 🤝
What has hopeum achieved so far , everything getting worse at record rates ! Not saying get depressed but the reality is humans had a choice to save themselves and chose not to . Its unnatural for a species to last forever anyway . Long live our bacterial overlords !
end capitalism !
@@snertlert. copium :)
The terrifying thing to me is that when we first started hearing about the impacts of Global Warming, they weren’t going to occur until 2100. Then it became 2050. Then 2030 and now we are hearing timelines for various events of “the next 3 to 5 years” or “within 8 years”, etc, etc. As Caitlin said, spreading hope is not an option. Cold, hard reality is what people need to accept. “ A hard rain’s a-gonna fall.” Time to adapt, change, relocate…it’s what we humans do best.
Globally we need more soil and clean water than we will have by 2026. Regionally you can already see the ears starting. Climate change is the killer though
Douglas Vogt studies about the 12.000 cycles.
22 November 2022, Creative Society video (first hour, mathematical model) 'our survival is in unity'
@@LivingNow678 Just another individual theory/ opinion on the causes of Global Warming. He lost me at the 12000 light year stuff affecting Earth’s current catastrophe. Everyone is entitled to their fairytales…I will stick to the verifiable science presented by actual scientists.
@@Ziggyc54
It was just a suggestion for curious people (in Italian we say: messager non porta pena) ...
are 33 years (in that time a yogi told me: Mother Nature will be the next President) that I have been looking for understanding the causes of the climate change, what I see in this period is that now we are more close to an abrupt change than before ...
Ciao dear, greetings from North Italy
@@Ziggyc54
Ps. The Creative Society video is not an individual position, they expose the theory of a team of quite a lot of independent researchers
Its ridiculous how unaware people are of whats happening in Antarctica now. Literally no one outside of people that actively try to stay informed on climate change (which I don't blame people for not doing, since it is depressing) knows about any of this. At least from my experience outside of the internet. In my country, it doesnt get mentioned in the news, climate change in general is sometimes a footnote, if there is heat or flooding affecting people right here. But this big stuff is something that just no one even is aware of. Thats why science communicators like you really do such an important job.
thanks for your support!
I sort of disagree..The "professional" class always lends legitimacy to all of the worst governments in human history, by remaining silent to maintain there privilege..Our country has been destroying one country after the next killing 4.5 million people in the last 20 years, according to a Brown University report, although they say the real number is likely over 10 million, but they can't trace outcomes..Our professional class has had the power to ban together and force change, 30 years ago, when hope was still real..But instead, they kept isolated in their specialized fields of privilege and indoctrination...
@@realeyesrealizereallies6828your comment was censored
@@nicklebuck "In times of deceit, the truth becomes a revolutionary act"--Orwell
Nobody is allowed to visit to see for themselves so it is no surprise that we don't know what is going on in Antarctica. We have to trust government on it. One should never do that. It is most anti scientific.
It's always a little bit deceptive that projections are made for the year 2100, because some if the impacts will really kick in right around that time. In Holland we're expecting around 0.6 - 1 meter SLR by then, but what's often missed is that the rate will have increased to cm's per year instead of mm's so far. That means going from 1 m rise to 2 m rise will take only 15-20 years after that. There is simply no business case for improving coastal defenses for such a little bit of extra time. So yes, I fight for strong climate change policy, but I've also planned an exit strategy for my son and his offspring.
True. When it gets to even 1cm rise per year, it gets difficult to plan the engineering needed to protect coastal infrastructure, at least within sensible costs. Where I live, the UK, there are thousands of coastal towns. There will be no money to cater for protecting them all with re-engineering docks, bridges, promenades, etc. they will have to be left to crumble into the might of the higher waves. These towns will persevere, but without their sea-going heritage. Holding back the sea is not cheap or easy.
What I've learned from whatever scientists say about climate change ie 100 year I always half the time an then add another 20% of reduction. (I'm just a Lay person) Sure enough climate change always supercedes all known models a couple of years later. In New Zealand surrounded by seas we have not started to retreat just talk an then more talk.
Not even preparing for climate refugees which will be coming soon enough.
What’s your exit strategy (you can keep it vague lol)…
@@djozzdraper They are going to move the beach chairs and the cooler as needed......🤣
@@djozzdraper bought a second home and a piece of fertile land in a more elevated location, not too far south and usually with good precipitation. Plan to sell my assets here by 2035 or so.
I've always thought we should be focusing on adaptation mechanisms. The Earth is undergoing changes that we cant stop. The best we can do is adapt.
The world would first have to accept the reality they don't like. So we need more realistic goals even if it's difficult.
Would have been so much better to listen to warnings a few decades ago instead of adapting to the consequences of our stupidity but here we are.
The problem is that this change does not need to directly take is out to take is out no matter where we move or attempt to adapt.
Changes to microorganisms, bacteria, insects, worms, algae, crustaceans and such could just end all food or oxygen on the planet and we die in ways we cannot adapt to avoid.
"adapt" is nonsensical statement, current system is perfectly adapted to kill us all, and we are perfectly adapted to feed the system.
as a humans race at this size we do not do what is necessary to live with nature or even be happy.
we need radical change on all levels, maybe yo8u can call that adaptation, but it is also going against everything most people know and have already adapted to.
@@5353Jumper
yah, if the changes will be abrupt, no adaptation will be possible; just to have the courage to see this possibility
Well communicated Ella. I can't wait for our interview to air on Sunday. Thank you for all your efforts.❄️
Sandy - we have to adapt to doom. hahahaha
Hi Sandy
i am so very grateful that you choose to put the effort into producing and then presenting this information.
Thank you for another excellent video Dr Gilbz. We need to act NOW to mitigate & adapt to climate change.
Thank you, Captain Obvious. We can't act yesterday, and we also are not yet able to act tomorrow. NOW is all you have at your disposal. Every "now" you miss, is a "now" you will never have again.
Adaptation, at this point, is to be able to move towards the Poles. Primates evolved during the 10° C warmer PETM, just not 8 billion rather large versions. No where near the Equator, either.
Proto-Horses survived the PETM, grew larger to become named Horses. Although it's happening thousands of times faster, a few clever Sapiens might survive, but they have to be very, very smart.
1970`s was the `now `moment lol
This is very worrying indeed. Here in Finland we're lucky though, that Finland's landmass is actually rising between 3 and 9 millimeters per year (a rebound from the last ice age, when the masses of ice sheets pushed the land down), effectively counteracting sea level rise. In the worst case scenarios, by 2100, the sea level would rise about half a meter along the Finnish coast. Currently, we're gaining about a square kilometer of land along the coast, per year.
So people living on Finnish coastal areas are luckier than the vast majority of coastal dwellers in the world. But if the projected sea level rise happens, I don't think anywhere is safe from the indirect effects on world economy, and the coming refugee crisis.
“Doctor, my eyes have seen the years
And the slow parade of fears, without crying
Now I want to understand
I have done all that I could
To see the evil and the good, without hiding
You must help me if you can”
J B RULES ! " Lives in the Balance " had some amazing songs on it ! A later album had an underrated " Information Wars " that Alex Jones plagurised with a little tweak ....
Info Wars ....
Dr. Naughten appears to have some of the same neurological issues I have with anomic aphasia. It took me thousands of hours of speech therapy to decrease.
And you are wonderful David.
Next generations will probably hate ours, and I can't blame them for that. So much data, so much knowledge on the climate crisis, and yet so few actions.
Oh they already do...
What next generation? Game over man
@@genxerfool9797nah, if you can imagine we could survive on the moon or Mars, then clearly we can manage to survive on earth, just not like we do now, and regardless some life on earth will survive us.
@@jamesgrover2005 imagine all you want, but ionizing radiation will ruin anyone's day.
@@genxerfool9797 The Homo Sapiens species proved to be very resilient since it started to spread from Africa. And nowadays we are (mostly) everywhere on the globe, and there's 8 billions of us. It doesn't mean there won't be suffering, but I'm 100% sure there will be plenty of us for centuries to come, despite what we're doing to the one and only planet we're able to live on.
In fact, even in a total nuclear war scenario, I'm sure there would be lots of pockets of survivors, which life would be dramaticaly changed, but still, there would future generations.
But we should work on reducing the trauma we're inflicting to the environnement, in order to minimize as much as possible the suffering of the generations to come. Because I'm convinced that, like parents trying to give a better life than they had to their kids, our species should aim at a similar goal.
(Plus, I'm a sentimental who very much like nature as I know it, and it pains me to see it taking such blows)
I was jumping up and down yelling about this in the early 2000s and no one listened, looking back even then if we stopped co2 probably wouldn't have helped. Now we really need to prepare for a different future In around 30 years we will see some interesting changes, definitely not a boring life to be had in our time.
Douglas Vogt studies about the 12.000 cycles
22 November 2022, Creative Society video (first hour) 'our survival is in unity'
As Greta said: I don't need you to hope - I need you to panic like your house is on fire!
Because it is!
Girl i hear you. I shed a tear for my kids and grandchild's future every time i listen to you climate scientists podcasts.
Never mind your kids and grandkids. Save some tears for yourself as well, because it's happening right here and right now!
@@canadiankewldudeyour thinking about the tumor growth on your 🧠.
What future?
Wait until you hear about the clathrate bomb (aka The Clathrate Gun, aka The Arctic Methane Monster, aka (recently added) The Arctic Godzilla).
Don't look it up if you're skittish.
One of the biggest PR mistakes in climate policy advocacy was to put long term sea level rise so much in front and center.
- It's too long term for people to care.
- Too often was it used to imply that this is going to happen soon, then people found it how long term it is and they felt manipulated.
- It will always lead to a sentiment of letting other people deal with it when a future society has better technology.
- The combination of effects in the near future, including a bit of sea level rise, is much more horrifying.
The other more general problem is of course, once again, the issue that most if not all scientists and activists around that topic want some kind of lefty "global and historic justice". Allowing poor nations which had high birth rates for decades to increase their standard of living by using fossil fuels, while we are supposed to cut down, while maybe taking in refugees at the same time, and using our wealth to "compensate" these countries. This is absolutely delusional. (Well, maybe we'll agree to this one day, when the working population in the developed world are mostly immigrants from those poor countries, while the retired people from the developed countries live in some decently safe areas in poor countries, and not paying taxes at home and not much in their new home.)
The last episode of warming, MIS5e, sea levels rose extremely fast between 135,000 to 125,000 years ago as evidenced by geology. Today Southern California is not sub tropical but it became so 125,000 BP to 120,00 BP where I do my work monitoring major construction site excavations mapping geology and collecting fossils. Sea levels rose so rapidly during this time that non marine hillside colluviums on the paleo slopes bordering estuaries were preserved beneath transgressive sub tropical estuarine sediments. The sea level rose faster than wave erosion could take it away, preserving the non marine hillside colluvium riddled with marine organism burrows. Sea level eventually stabilized at maximum sea level high, finally enabling the coastal rivers to rapidly fill in the estuaries with capping deltaic deposits. Further inland up the valley, the non marine valley floodplain sediments thickened in the main valley in response to sea level rise while the side tributaries receiving less sediment became upwardly migrating lakes. As the main valley deposits thickened it acted as an ever thickening dam causing the lakes to migrate upstream in the side canyons in response to sea level rise. When sea levels stabilized, sand deltas rapidly filled in the side canyon lakes in the same manner as the estuary was filled in down stream as the main valley flood plain stabilized. Total thickness of the transgressive deposits is around 40 meters. In summary, the sedimentary sequence begins with non marine floodplain deposits. Next is the estuarine beach sand lapped against hillside dark brown colluvium extensively bioturbated by marine organisms that lived in the beach sands. Next we have a mudflat deposit with pinna in life position. Finally all is buried under deltaic deposits. This is happening now. This is our future preserved in the past.
Our world has been through these changes before. Just remember or learn what our ancestors did, and don't forget history, and just do what the did when the 🌊💦 waters rose. They migrated to other areas.
Diggerland, for example. This problem is not a new problem. Humans are the best at forgetting. Gosh.
I think it's always better to know than to not know, even if the subject is bad or even terminal. This and all your vids help me inform myself with reliable data; the more I know the better equipped I'll be to make decisions about what I can do, even if it's miniscule...
Thank you Dr. Gilbz. As a Data Scientist with 35 years of experience, primarily as a data analyst, here's my Executive Summary response to your comments. Please bear in mind that while it may not agree with most modern discussions based as they are upon either 169-year myopics, or even longer, 22,000-year long perspectives, the summary below does most certainly match the half a million years of cyclical Vostok and EPICA climate data while bringing modern climate discussions into a proper long-tern, data-driven, cyclical perspective.
It also shows things will get worse before they get better. The good news is this is happening slowly, not rapidly.
105 kya, Earth's mean global temperature rose a few degrees hotter than it's been ever since, including our current mean global temperature. "Three and five meters" is about right in comparison to the fact Earth's sea levels rose 26 feet higher (7.9 meters) 105 kya than today's mean global sea level. Naturally, this occurred long before mankind had industrialized more than the occasional fire pit for keeping warm and roasting animal flesh.
Roughly 11,229 years ago, Earth's mean annual global temperature first rose above it's current mean annual global temperature. ever since, according to the data, Earth has been hotter than it is today roughly 28 times, also roughly 24.9% of the time, throughout which ice has been slowly melting. In fact, the trend line over the last 10,000 years has been slightly negative, roughly 0.25 degrees. This includes the modern temperature rise correlated with mankind's age of modernization. The temperatures throughout the roughly 173 years since 1850, however, are statistically indistinguishable from the rest of the 11,229 years of temperature swings. Grab the Vostok/EPICA temp data, plot it, and you'll see it. I use advanced statistics. Either way...
As for your question, "So what now?" I suggest you try this thought exercise on for size: If the previous four Interglacial Warming Periods over the last half million years were both hotter and with higher sea level rise than our current one, without any input from mankind, then by reason of all available data (Vostok, EPICA), it's going to become hotter and with higher sea level rise before it cools, and there's absolutely nothing we either can or should even attempt to do about it EXCEPT: 1) stop polluting air and water with persistent chemicals; 2) repopulate the land with a wide variety of originally natural flora; 3) build far better insulated and more energy efficient homes, preferably at least 30 feet about current mean sea levels (give it 60 feet, just to be safe), and if need be, 4) move.
In the meantime, relax. After Western Antarctica melts, the Earth WILL descend into its next ice age, beginning some time between the next few years to the next several hundred years, at which point snow fall will replenish the ice sheets there, as well as to several thousand feet deep over the Northern United States, the same as happened during the last five ice ages over the last half a million years.
Over all other concerns, please maintain a healthy, long-term, data-driven perspective! These cycles occur over lengths of time encompassing many human generations. For example, a thousand generations have passed since the last glacial maximum. As we're between one and possibly as many as 50 generations, we're far closer to the beginning of the next ice age than we are to the end of the last one.
temperature.global/
What a bunch of climate change denial nonsense. Peddle your lies on Fox
All very natural and has happened many times in the long past of Earth cycles. We humans are just fortunate to be around during this post-glacial period that was perfect for our expansion and development, but now, we are so afraid of the changes that we want to try to make it stay how it is.. a useless endeavour.
@@jcldctt Looking at the decades of fear mongering.. ice age coming!!, warming coming!!.. all of which was wrong, and so far the real numbers are miniscule. In the past some changes happened in a lifetime, others took thousands of years. No need for fear and money-making scams to convince people to be afraid now.
The whole endeavor of civilization has been irresponsible, not just the fact that we wont prepare for sea level rise.
Global Industrial Civilisation is a Ponzi scheme, it's theft from the future.
@@ddeb4444 do you think you're well informed, making that comment? Theres no way out. The system built it that way. Think for yourself.
Isn’t it time to grow up and take this seriously? Why can’t we do all that we can to slow this disaster and perhaps stop it ? Sunshine Reflective Measures? Carbon Quantitative Easing to manage excess pollution? Now that we know (Hansen) Climate Sensitivity is 4.8C and the Aerosol Masking Effect is 1.5C? Who is taking responsibility?
Great video, thanks. Yes, the news about the WAIS has been really depressing since it first started coming out in 2017. I hope your videos can help give more people courage in the face of all the bad news.
Just signed up on Patreon - your work is too important to not support. Thank you for your honesty and for sharing Kaitlin's words on courage.
Thanks! And yeah, I found it very refreshing to hear her thoughts on courage. A very inspiring perspective borrowed from Kate Marvel I think
I got a 24 hour ban on commenting, for mentioning supporting a content creator. CZcams terms of service consider it some type of scam or spam, to encourage support in the comments.
@@reverands571 probably for the best, too many scams and other assorted nonsense in comment sections nowadays.
What I find most depressing about this, is the fact that overall, regarding global warming, is that I reached your point of realisation and sadness 25-30 years ago.
The disinformation campaigns have and still are working so much better than the truth.
Maybe in another 25 years someone else will be telling you that "your on a path to +10-15 degrees (a lot faster than you think) and that was already set in stone back in 2020".
IF we could somehow decarbonise tomorrow, it's still going to go to +10 or more. The tipping points that worry people are going to tip, because the one that was ignored for decades has already happened. Methane clathrates have been thawing for over a decade now - that's a one way trip.
All you have to do is look at the global temp back before all the fossil fuels were made - humans have been digging/pumping them out of long term storage and sticking them back into the system. Every kg of CO2 is here to stay, and so is the temp rise associated with it.
The big issue here is what this does to ocean circulation and the cascade of tipping points.
This is one of the few video i've seen online without this jarring message of hope. And you're 100% right, we don't need hope we need courage (and i'd add to that - truth). Like, yea it's good to be hopeful, ofc - but the problem with, even scientists in popular media ending things with "all is not lost, we have time and there's hope", while I get the idea is to ensure ppl don't just lose all hope and giveup, results in not enough action. After all, if it's not so bad, if there's still a lot of hope and a lot of time ,then why bother with the kind of crazy, sudden and massive societal changes that is actually required to ensure we come out of this in one piece? So thank you, for being one of the few people on the internet for being a bit on the bleaker side, because IMO that's what we need. Heck, I'd rather err on the side of being too "doom and gloom" than being not enough, hopefully more doom and gloom will push more people towards more drastic changes.
Yep, totally. I'm leaning more towards this pov these days for sure. I still think communication has to offer some agency though; the problem I have with true doomism (at least, by my definition) is that it takes away power. Sure things are bad, but we still have the option to make it less bad, delay the onset of the badness, and plan around it if we choose wisely. It's a fine line to walk.
Thank you for your honesty Ella - about what the study means and what it means to you emotionally. 💚
oh wow
Thanks for this video. 🙏 I had a solar (photovoltaic) installation business for remote homes here in the mountains of Colorado for over 27 years. The progress I’ve seen in the hardware over that time, that made installations much easier and faster, has been amazing. Sadly, what I have not seen, is the ‘courage’, as Caitlyn and you have said, of people to truly make a change in their fossil fuel burning habits. My feeling is that dear humans won’t make a change until they see a wildfire at their door, or water lapping at their feet. I hope videos like yours, and valuable research like what Caitlyn is doing will prove me wrong. But I have told my young nephew, who will inherit my solar powered home, to never sell this place! He and his future friends, family, or whatever, may need it. Thank you again for all you do.
Karen
It may not be too late to take physical action, but it may be too late to take political action.
It has been half a century since Lewis Powell advised the US Chamber of Commerce and its member firms to take forceful political action to influence and distort the political process, and energy companies have used and continue to use their great wealth and power to direct domestic and foreign policies to their advantage.
Of the major culprits in the long-term political nightmare that is the "Middle East," big oil has been and remains the primary motivator.
We are locked into a global political economy directed by people who not only will not suffer the consequences of a warming planet, they are in a position to profit from it, and their power continues to grow.
Yes. For three months I've been avoiding James Hansen's paper 'Global Warming in the Pipeline'. Now that I've digested it, I found it was time to watch Don't Look Up for the third time.
Thank you. It took me a while to summon up the courage to watch your video, but how could I tell others what's happening if I didn't? Your work is too important not to support, so I'm off to patreon!
thank you!
I'm not sure what has changed with CZcams's suggestion algorithm but I found your channel and subscribed. Thank you for this good video.
Live your life and cease worrying about things beyond your control. Focus on becoming a better you for your family friends and community.
Our coastlines will change for a long time, and yet, it won’t matter. Everything else will get us first.
Everything else may well do that first.
Hope... 'You can think you farted but you feel some lumps. You can go ahead and hope you didn't just suffer a shart hemorrhage all you want, but at some point, you gotta realize that you are going to have to do something about it.' -Johan Grecee - Von Shartypants
The keynote about finding something besides hope for a better future as a motivation is very powerful and usable outside the mindset of climate change. Most of the story felt like affirming what I already suspected to be happening, but the final message of not relying on hope but courage is what hit me and made me lose it, because it felt personal. And it is personal, in a sense, because everyone should be doing something, instead of hoping others solve it for them.
Now the rate of warming in the ocean is supposed to triple??
Is that what it will take to make up for all the warming that was predicted to happen for the last twenty years when it failed to live up to the advance billing?
Where I live in the mid latitudes in Canada, the ground has thawed in the spring at the same time for all my sixty years.
These people are predicting the future and the only actual knowledge of their predictive ability I have is the accuracy of past predictions.
It’s been really poor so far, and I have no reason to believe it has improved.
We don’t have control and we never did.
Thanks for the update.
That is exactly my concerns. It is always only be talked about until 2100. As if it would stop then. I just can't stand it... And also I can't understand why nothing happens, besides make war... 🤢🤮
Thank you very much to share your knowledge and courage !
Thank you for the video. People are more resilient, courageous, and are stronger than they know. The more they face the stronger they become and a traumatic event which was once a mountain, becomes a molehill. Be strong,
Liked and suscribed! Thanks for relaying the research Dr Gilbz
Thanks so much for not perpetuating the "hope" myth. Have really appreciated the increasing courage of scientists like yourself to educate the public on the gravity of our predicament. We really need to move beyond the age of 'hopium' and into the age of adaptation. Thanks for keeping us informed 🙏
You young ladies are on the right side of truth.
keep up the good work.
Thanks both.
Question: the mental image depicted is ice sheets melting as water into the sea. All they really have to do is slide into the sea (sea ice doesn’t effect levels because it’s water already) to affect levels.
I’m a horticulturist and I’ve been crying for 3 yrs …last time I saw an earthworm in Rome, GA
Worms disappeared 3yrs ago after noticeable 5yr decline in health.
I cried 3yrs ago the first time vegetables stopped growing when not 2 nights were warmer than days…days were 75 but a couple nights got to 80F and all my crops stopped growing…
No fly larvae in trash cans for 3 yrs…not even w rotted meat…I tried…
Very soon there will not be enough food
Thanks for the great video as always!!!
Let's face it, it's over! An ice free Arctic Ocean is predicted by NOAA next year, & the latent heat along with the unprecedented ENSO will send temperatures soaring. Sea level rise is the least of our worries!
Be careful the way you describe the arctic ice. People invested in denying climate change is an issue will use even the smallest amount of ice to paint you as an alarmist.
I do think the media's emphasis on polar bears and the Maldives has robbed the public of more relevant threats. Canada was blindsided by these wildfires, whose carbon output has outstripped the whole country's footprint for 2023.
Compassion brings tears. Earth is toast and it is mine, and most humans, GUILTY. I'm so happy!
The only thing we can do now is get our personal affairs in order and stay close to our loved ones. This is the time of the Great Dying. Staying in denial does not help. Only facing and feeling the grief helps. Climate change is unfortunately now abrupt, exponential, and irreversible. The politicians, "world leaders", and the wealthy 10% do not care, they are completely ignorant and delusional, and are sending us headlong to extinction.
Might want to comment on Sir David King's idea -- which is actually being tested presently -- to lower CO2 concentrations by increasing phytoplankton levels. His idea is that whales should be returned to their pre-industrial populations. Sounds a bit strange, but he's very convincing. It is many orders of magnitude more efficient than direct air capture. Turns out whales are very good at what they do, and they can do it on a very large scale.
And the chinese are great at eating them.....
Depressing, but informative. Will we suddenly rise to the challenge and start acting like responsible adults? I fear not. We're individually smart, but collectively stupid. Asking us to change our behavior in this respect is like asking a long-distance flying creature to start walking instead because allegedly the sky is slowly becoming more dangerous. "Why? That's so slow! I'll take my chances," it would say. Burning fossil fuels for cheap energy was our ticket out of poverty and into modernity. But, just as that flying creature would rather pin its hopes on evolving an aerial defense strategy, so we would rather pin ours on someone coming up with greener -- and cheaper! -- alternatives to those fossil fuels we're so addicted to. The fact that so much is at stake is irrelevant.
What are you afraid, of ice sitting on a body of water will at some time break off and drift; the variables, are how far out ice goes, how thick the ice is, how much fracturing in ice, tide current flow, uplifts, and, stress, etc. Ask how much fresh water pours into the ocean within in day. Now how much sea water is being displaced by ice setting on the sea before and after break off. The level of the ocean rise is so small.
Under many retreating glaciers appear tree roots in situ. So somehow a tree could grow there before the glacier knocked it down. It is well known that during the Holocene we live in Earth had many long periods when trees could grow much closer to the poles and much higher up the mountain. And you my dear girl know that.
An interesting setting for me. I’m a Norwegian, thus from an oil state, perhaps more guilty than not oil producing nations. I live in Amsterdam, which will be under water some time not too far into the future. I live with my girlfriend on a sailboat, which is very comfortable, but also very low footprint compared to any land dwelling. I know the time span of sea level rise is longer than we modern humans individualists (meaning: Self sentered idiots) care to think. Still, it does seem like the living on a sailboat thing is a good idea more people in low lying places should consider. My guess is that some property “investments” gradually will look less safe.
First time here and found it very interesting. Climate change and ecology is a drum I've been banging for fifty years or more. However, those I speak to here in rural France still aren't listening, they just shrug their shoulders and go cut down another half dozen trees to feed their fires. One day it'll all come home to roost, but I think we have to suffer more dramatic events before that. Sadly that means more natural distruction and the loss of many lives. Courage is the right word, not hope. Hope is that humanity survives and the natural world gets through in tact, as we all rely on each other. But that's a long way ahead. No one listened in the past, and many are still not listening. But it's too late for the immediate term, all the current generations can do is work for the future generations. Let's hope they come through it, and learn to make this a better world.
I'm 25 years old living in the USA, and married. As the news keeps coming from the scientific community about how rapidly the climate is changing, I find me and my wife to be more and more reluctant to have children. Why would we want to bring a child into a world that for all intents and purposes, we seem hell bent on destroying as quickly as possible? I can't imagine looking my own child in the eyes and trying to explain how we got here, and how everyone in power seems apathetic to the destruction they're bringing, and how we're subsidizing further destruction. Add to that global food insecurity and climate refugees and many more incidents in the future, even here in the states, and it just doesn't seem right to put another life into this mess we've created. The birth rate is declining in a lot of developed countries, so it doesn't feel like we're alone in this sentiment.
What your(and others with the same thinking) choice means is that your knowledge about the climate is evolutionary manipulative, that the people that will pass there genes on the the next generation are those that have remained ignorant or deluded. Selection pressure for the human species will favor the poor and ignorant.
Having chosen not to have children decades ago, we are now even more heartened by that decision given what has unfolded environmentally. We have an EV, have divested our retirement assets of fossil fuel companies, barely eat meat, and never travel, but avoiding procreation undoubtedly has the biggest (positive) impact of all the other things one can do. If we were 25 now, we would probably view it as cruel to give birth, not just risky as we thought when we were young. If YOU choose not to have children, don't let anyone make you feel guilty for it. It can be a moral sacrifice for the greater good, but many people just won't be able to see that, so just ignore the haters! :)
@@TobinMiller-wt6yf Google what is made from oil. Trust me you cant live without it.
Even if your feelings tell you you can......
@@will7its Made from oil OR requires oil for its production.
Thanks for the interesting video!
I know this may seem kind of silly to some, but how do you determine which is the western edge of the Antarctic? It’s easy if there is a continent that is north or south of the poles in its entirety but the Antarctic is pretty much centered on the south pole. Just a silly question that I’d like to find the answer to.
It's very confusing, especially if you're looking at one segment of the coast, figuring out which direction is west or east ( and ofc at the south pole everything is north!) Looking down on the continent, anything clockwise from from the Greenwich meridian, which runs through the Antarctic peninsula, to 180° is east, everything else is west. Does that answer your q?
Capitalism, human greed, myopia, stupidity and that ineffectual feeling, hope, are what got us to this point. I feel most sorry for all those bright-eyed young people and children who will over the coming years turn to their parents and ask them, "Are we going to be OK?"
I guess, if we ourselves can avoid crying, we'll have to try to look them in the eye and simply tell them, "yes", though we'll know that won't be the case.
I do agree, but we are creatures like others that have caused mass disruption and extinction of others. It's our DNA that got us here, but we will have to grow beyond the path it put us on. Where are the aliens? Well, if they are DNA beings that got beyond their natural nature, that gives us hope. ( Sorry this got so long, not meant to be personally directed 😅)
What is the importance of rising sea levels lifting the ice up from the rock bed and exposing more ice to warm water?
Enlightning video. Thanks.
To need courage is to face something scary, don't do it alone! If watching this video weighs heavy on your heart please find your local community groups, don't bear the burden on your own!!
It is interesting and sad that we focus on long-term consequences but don't see how civilization collapses in the short term. Gaza had record high temperatures this August, which caused electrical outages, read no air conditioning. How much did this contribute to what we are seeing right now? 2024 promises to be even hotter, and we may see vast numbers of wet bulb deaths in the equatorial tropics and subsequent mass migration. These events will impact humanity severely in the next decade; we don't have to wait until the end of the century.
That's a very interesting insight. And the Arab Spring had a lot to do with a wheat crop failure. I live in Canada, where we expected things to become more temperate, but the wildfires... Instead of these signals of climate breakdown waking up the voting population, there's this terrifying global drift to the political right, where it's just a race to grab profit before collapse.
What do you suppose how the plates are going to react to the weight of such a sea level rise. More pressure means more intrusion. More intrusion means more volcanic, and earthquake activity
Excellent video!
Slick Oil will not allow us to Hope It will only stop when there is unity to its opposition
When will we see this ?
Sadly, as NATO and BRICS square up for at least a second Cold War, if not another World War, I’m afraid the Green Revolution and climate science concerns will take a back seat to security concerns even more frequently and prominently than they currently do.
Gazprom and OPEC have everything to do with these wars. And the other major global industry, arms. It's just the ecosystem of capitalism doing its thing.
In 1770 Captain Cook sailed around the Antarctic. Since then only 3 ships have sailed closer to the South pole and they were modern steel ice breakers. The reason Cook could do this was there was less ice in 1770 than now. So just read his journals and his maps.
A new denial fake fact! Sailed close to Antarctica did he? 😂
Captain Cook did sail around Antarctica from 1768-1761, so your statement he did it in 1770 is close enough. That's the only part that is even close to being true. Even he went further south in 1773. After him there were many, many wooden ships that went further south. Maybe you should read the journals you recommend?
This one hurt. Thank you for the honesty. I'm sharing this one around.
thank you :)
Thank you and well done.
Thank you.
I know the pain of realization you speak of. Thank you for reminding us we have spines and can stand up to these challenges. We do need to go through this pain and get back up and work on the problems.
The people here 100yrs from now may not have many of the capabilities, tools or tolerance of the foolish ambition of innovation that we do. We owe it to them to spend the waning days of modern civilisation devising creative ways to solve these issues.
Great stuff. We have a year or two until civilization fails. We might be facing extinction. Cannot say it was inevitable. I've been actively prepping for this since I crunched numbers in 2017
How does prepping help anything ?
@@MyKharli fair question. It led me to relocate into a solar passive home. We have to use some propane in the winter. It allowed us to get a hybrid in 2020. It drops my carbon front print. I’d rather do something than nothing.
If supply chains are disrupted I’m okay for three to three years depending on what is stopped.
Overall I’d rather not starve to death. When chaos hits I’ve plans, thought through and considered, to implement rather than panic.
It’s also a hobby. It’s led to some spectacular winter camping failures and generally physically testing myself.
Mortality remains 100% even for the ultra rich. I’m living a life I’m happy living.
You asked 😹👍
@@HuplesCat I got my carbon footprint to 1t/ year but it's still hopeless. Still every day alive is a miracle as dead is forever and we all die one day wether we screw the planet up for our and other species or not !
It is still the right thing to do. We all die. Mortality is 100%. How we live matters not at all but how I live matter to me. Be proud of your refusal to merely dance and party as the boat sinks @@MyKharli
Couldn`t agree more .@@HuplesCat
Are the Himalayan glaciers still on scheduled to melt by 2035? And the West River Highway to be underwater in 4 years? Only 10ft of sea level rise to go! Oh and did Arctic sea ice cover completely disappear in 2008?
Many of these drama people will slink off when the truth comes out.
I'm with you. Great to hear from the author!
Many good (and terrifying) points made, that our political leaders should pay attention to.
It appears, that what our political leaders have done, is to prepare a place for 50,000 to survive---and we're not likely on the list.
Well, it has been a fun ride, to the last one, please turn of the lights and close the door... not that it matters anymore, but.
as the Terminator said (in a heavy austrian accent) "anger is more useful than dispair", anyway, I have come to the conclusion that humanity is not to be saved, only individuals that can adapt are, happy to live 2000 meters above sea level, and starting to learn how to do aquaculture...
We need to develop flotation devices for polar bears so they dont drown. I just cant sleep thinking about it. Omg Omg Omg
I have made up plans to manufacture them we just need a couple hundred million to start and we have to have a lot of volunteers to put them on the bears. I dont think it will be that hard because they are so cute and cuddly........I just love polar bears😍🥰😘
Excellent video. Thank you. Subscribed.
Thanks for the sub!
Don’t feel bad. There is a rather large amount of ocean floor heating that this melting that area from below the crust . We were never going to save it anyway because it’s an active tectonic area with thermal vents.
Just imaging, you are driving on the highway in the night, with fog, and suddenly you see a truck in front of you. Standing. Its too late to stop in time you will for sure hit it with 30km/h or 20mph. Will you brake or will you say "fuck, why brake, the car is totalled anyway?" That answer does not really make sense...
'Working with the ending we have."
Thank you.
Thanks for making this video. I was wondering what the impact of west antarctic ice sheet melt might be on ocean pH over time. Not sure if you're aware about dropping ocean pH and impacts on marine life below a pH of 7.95? Would love to see a video with your thoughts if you are.
Well, at least I can get a sweet map drawing job! I jest, I'm sorry 😭 What a thoughtful video, new to your channel and grateful for your research and interviews. I knew it was bad but not quite uhmmm
definitely, great video, loved it, we need more truth of what's to come
Thanks!
Thank YOU Bill. Much appreciated :)
Every day I stand in front of my classroom and try not to scream. How do we continue knowing the future we are leaving for them?
Sorry but this is likely to displace 1B people in the next 2 decades. !M Syrian refugees blew up Europe. And this is an extinction level crisis. Not a pandemic killing 10M but wiping g out entire ecosystems.@@ddeb4444
@@evadd2 Shut off MSM and call your shrink for a med adjustment....stat
I get my facts from the science. The media is derelict, negligent and paid shills of the fossil fuel industries. Ask scientist who is actually qualified not some Limburg sellout.@@will7its
And it's "breathe" not breath.@@ddeb4444
Thanks a lot for this video.
The entire hopium obsession greatly angers me. Are we in Kindergarten?
To me truth is worth a million times more than hopium.
On this note: Big Thanks!
Ps. In case it's not obvious to everyone.
The reason for the relentless push for hopium is to protect status quo.... Those who steered us into this insane, completely unacceptable disaster.