THE BLACK SWAN SUMMARY (BY NASSIM TALEB)
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- čas přidán 14. 06. 2024
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In this video I will present my top 5 takeaways from The Black Swan, the bestselling book by the statistician and former trader, Nassim Taleb.
A playlist of Nassim Taleb's greatest works: bit.ly/2Op6AA5
Top 5 takeaways:
00:00 1. The Black Swan Problem
03:12 2. The Implications of Black Swan Blindness
07:32 3. Mediocristan vs Extremistan
11:03 4. Gaussian Schmaussian!
14:52 5. How to Act as an Investor in an Environment of Black Swans
A playlist of Nassim Taleb's greatest works: bit.ly/2Op6AA5
Get ready for the incoming black swan event:
czcams.com/video/Hi80AApQTPg/video.html
if you ever feel that bad or unintelligent, remember that there are people on earth who still got the almighty "life saving" injection even after watching this video..
"As an investor, to truly become antifragile you must look beyond your investments. That means developing other sources of income, having a wider knowledge base and developing a certain
skill, so that in case of a major black swan event - you’ll be somewhat more prepared that you would’ve been without these other aspects."
This is a masterpiece, sir. Thank you so much!
😍
@@TheSwedishInvestor Thank you so much! I love the turkey example. :) You published this video just over a year ago. Now, COVID-19 is definitely a huge Black Swan in the world with lots of unknown unknowns. Could you use covid-19 in some of the examples? Thanks!
@@TheSwedishInvestor just found out that Taleb says Corona Virus is not a Black Swan. czcams.com/video/Tb2pXXUSzmI/video.html
Lol you sound like an Indian looking for a job. Do you want one opportunity to showcase your skills in my esteemed organisation? 😂😂😂😂😂
Tip: Read Daniel Kahneman's 'Thinking Fast and Slow' before attempting to read this or any other Nassim Taleb's work. You must be familiar with cognitive biases in order to comprehend his ideas. Its also good to have basic knowledge in statistics.
I just got into reading as a habit, the first concept-heavy book which I have read is ideed “Thinking fast and slow” and now the third book which I want to read is the black Swan... it was cool to read your comment you made me feel lucky ahaha
Another good book is "You are Not So Smart" by David Mcraney same concept but it is an interesting about our Brain makes stuff up.
I did an area of concentration in psychology (they didn't offer a minor at the time) and specifically took Statistics in Psychological Research and I still chose Thinking Fast and Slow first on this channel's book list.
The first step to better investing is to not fool yourself.
Now , a few years later?
This is by far the best summary video I have ever watched. I was perplexed about the content of the book, now it feels like, Yah, everything fell into the proper picture. Good Job mate.
I'm happy to hear that you enjoyed it man! Cheers for the comment, great support!
Excellent Summary and precise description for such a complex idea. Please accept my heartfelt thanks
Brilliant explanation! Thank you so much! Just awesome.... well narrative and beautifully structured.
Loving these summaries man! really well done. Question for you. Do you read every book page by page from cover to cover or do you have another approach? I found all of Nassim Taleb's books awesome but getting through them took me quite a bit of time to get through (still working on Skin in the Game actually). Any reading insights on your process would be greatly appreciated. Thanks again.
An excellent way of explaining more than 700 pages in just 20 mins.Your hardwork is really appreciating.
Thanks a lot..
700?
I love this series Erik! Thank you so much for putting it together, you inspired me to goo ahead and make a series of videos on Nassim Taleb as well that I just published on my channel. Fortsätt det fantastiska arbetet bror!
Awesome summary. Just read the book and this summarizes the key points very well. Thank you.
Loved it. Loved your humor ! Thank you for this content.
Cheers Jo Bellens! 🙌
Thank you for your very informative summary. I think I couldn't understand the book without your video.
What a great video!! Thank you so much for this summary 🙌🏻
Having read the book, i would say this is pretty well summarized. thank you so much
Thanks for this amazing summary! 👏🏻
Fabulous summary! Your visuals are helpful and your humor quite welcome. :)
Kymberlee della Luce 🙌
This my friend. IS A GEM. I don't like the conclusion of point five, but also wasn't really expecting a satisfying solution. The rest of it totally made sense to me!! Thanks for the video!
@@anon_148 Rule #1 of investing: Never place all your eggs in one basket. This rule is precautionary, but it's still a solution because the core problem is uncertainty.
Splendid work, Sir, thank you!
I rarely comment on CZcams videos! But this video is a Masterpiece 🙌🤩 much appreciated 👌🙏🌺
Great summery, thank you !
Superb explanation by you !!
Thanks a lot !!
Amazing Summary..!! Good work!!
Great approach for the commercial brake!
This is amazing summary. Thank you
Faboulous.. Wonderful explanation.. You greatly articulate it with helpful animation.. Great work
you did a great job! it was very helpful.
FANTASTIC presentation.
😍
Thank you very much. As always, I love it.
Sir, you give some much value. Thank you for all that.
Great summaries.
Amazing video, thank you so much!
Great video. 💯👏. Explained very well
Thank you. great job
Showing this to my grandson - who beginning to experience “the world”, really fantastic! Who can beat Nassim?! Too bad my previous business school just “schoo-Ed” it away!
Good summmary indeed! Thank you
Thank you so much for this great content! I'd like to suggest you to a video about "The Misbehavior of Markets" - Mandelbrot, it would be awesome
Loveddddddd this summary :)
I'm happy to hear it Binati Sheth 😍
Now It’s on my to read list, thanks👍
Oh dear Swedish Investor! thanks for posting this amazing content. I have barely finished the black swan book and my journals are filled with the reflections of the world merely running on predictability. Life seems to have been consumed in mere memorization and reproduction of scripted events. Even a day on rafting adventure was to break this pattern of predictability and monotony. Mundane life is spent on predictable events and any outliers kind of throw off...
Thank you for the summary. I understand he´s one of your favorite authors... I had to stop reading the book because I really dislike his style... and I´m grateful to have watched your review, as if it were not for it, I would have missed your #5, which is very interesting.
u deserve much much more subscribers
I have the INCERTO collection from NNT and I consider it to be my best selection!
NNT is a Living LEGEND!!!
HOLY! I FINALLLY SAW YOUR FACE!
Ok, this made my day, week, or year of financial happiness :)!
Great content as always. You are one of the only CZcams channels that are worthy to recommend
Ricardo Sierra I’m very grateful for this comment and for your support! People like you keep me motivated! Cheers! 😁
He's so cute, isn't he?
Great great summary! Please note that in the example of the 100 people heights, you should add 90 centimetres and not 272 since you add a person that is 90 centimetres above the current average
the book is hard to consume.. lol
this vidio is a gem. great job!
Excellent!
very well done video
Thank you !!
Best way to learn simply great you are best
Do Black Swans feed on red herrings?
great video buddy! only 100 pages in Black Swan and it doesnt make sense much to me. Glad i watched your video!
I'm glad to hear that I was able to present the ideas in a somewhat different form then 😁 People should benefit from much of what Nassim Taleb has to say, if only they're willing to stay open-minded. #spreadtheword
Don’t give up. I read it for the first time 8 years ago and then again about 3 years ago. I’ve read two others of his books and I find him fascinating. However, I feel like the ideas of the black swan are finally sinking in eight years after my first reading.
Good summary. Well presented. You can skip reading the "long" book.
thank you
Very good 👍🏻
I like this book!
Great my Swedish brother.
Greatings from the German investor
Cheers! You should create a brother-channel!
It is interesting what he says at the end, as it's very unusual here for people to invest in gilts (bonds). Sure, if the govt. went bust we'd have bigger problems than our investment portfolios but it's not an attractive option here. Maybe it's different in other countries? Can I ask if you have Swedish bonds/gilts (I say gilt because a bond here means something else - usually a long-term savings account where you can only put money in for 14 days and then it matures after a certain time-period, normally between 6 months and 7 years)? I read the Intelligent Investor and was puzzled by the frequent mention of bonds, because I don't know anyone who has (or had) government bonds.
Anyway, great stuff as always. You summarise books better than anyone I've seen 🙂
Great job!!! I’m doing a Podcast on “Black Swan” this week… I was looking for inspiration; thanks!!!
That was completely excellent / Interesting and very educational .. thanks .. hoped you had a good day rafting at Mission Beach .. 🤣❤️
Nassim is one of the most underrated authors.
He is great, loved all of the books in the Incerto series, but especially Black Swan and Antifragile
I find the exact opposite... I don´t understand the fuss... I disliked his style so much I stopped reading The Black Swan halfway... Thanks god for this review!
Thank you Swedish investor ❤ 😊👌
This is legit gold kept here for free on internet!
Awesome
best book in investing ever
For those of you interested in learning more about the speculative insured portfolio, i recommended looking at something called the kelly criterion
Kelly can absolutely be combined with this, although I think Taleb himself would question the accuracy of the probability estimations on the outcomes
Thanks for the summary. Black swan = a surprising event with negative reaction. If you can identify such an event quickly; there's your buying opportunity. This strategy has served me well.
Without fail, the market overreact to black swans. Once you've decided that the reaction is the typical overreaction, you can make low risk investments that pay well in shorter periods of time.
True, however Black Swans can be positive too, like the video creator meeting his body-building hero.
7:18 my homepod starts to talk to me....
hello狼爸爸！
My iPad did the same, and it was playing the video!!!
Remember your loss is someone's gain .
Here we are March 2020!
2bn of the planet is under lockdown.
Planes, trains, and cars are grounded.
Stocks are down 30% from their peak.
All in a month!
#BlackSwan
Andrew G Taleb has said that the coronavirus pandemic is not a black swan. Pandemics are well-documented events and we should therefore expect that one will come down the line in our lifetime at some point
Pandemic is not a #Blackswan .
Man! Have you got it wrong! #NotBlackSwan
White swan. We knew pandemics might happen and starting Jan 15 the West could have stopped flights to infected countries and shut down the boarders. So for Asia I accept Grey swan, for the west a clear white swan.
But stupidity of leaders can turn any white swan into a perceived black swan.
Michael P unfortunately a lack of political tact from the Western countries would have made doing this incredibly difficult. It took Pres. Trump just over two months after Jan. 15th to determine that cases were coming in from Europe as well. When I pointed this out to a friend, he told me that it would have been impossible to discontinue flights anywhere from the US in January because everyone would have been kicking and screaming about how that’s a waste of time and money and we don’t need to be concerned about anything. This would have made other countries double down on not wanting to stop flights from China or Europe. Interestingly enough, around 2010 NNT went to Singapore to consult with them on their response should a pandemic occur; especially since their response during SARS caught them flat-footed. Part of their plan included shutting down airports and borders. However, apparently Singapore has a very large migrant worker population from mainly South Asia that does construction and other essential work for them. They’re kept in horrendously small dormitories, and even though connectivity to the outside world was shut down, the country is currently experiencing a massive surge in cases. It’s largely due to the fact that Singapore didn’t properly care for this migrant worker population, letting the cases spread in their living areas like wildfire. And there you have second-order effects still catching better-prepared countries flat footed. We need to make our systems more robust to volatility and try highlighting as many contingencies as we can to make sure we’re ready for dealing with something like this. We obviously can’t anticipate every single one, but explicating all the moving parts in the system and just asking “what if X...” can get you very far
nice video bro
If we avoid logical fallacies like Silent Evidence and Tunneling, can we determine if something is in Mediocristan or Extremistan? Or is it impossible to know?
In the latter case, maybe we should build extra-long maternity wards, in case an extremely-tall baby is born.
What 'box' were you thinking from when you drew the earth as a round ball? Isn't the earth still flat?
I nodded and laughed along the presentation until I hear the speculative but insured portfolio. that's what happened in 2007-2009 with AIG as the culprit, isn't it? Insurance is meaningful until it means nothing.
It was insurance through out of the money options on financial derivatives. In a black swan type event he would collect the 'insurance' (not really just a tail hedge), under normal circumstances he would lose all of the premium he paid (which would be collected by the option writer). Options are usually covered (which means the seller has margin in his account to pay insurance in the event of a black swan), therefore profiting from these plays usually has no collection risk.
-the coronavirus is probably the biggest black swan of the XXI century (so far)
This guy sounds like the guy who narrates for the Investigate Europe YT channel
Regarding the Tsunami, I suppose I know the answer already, but there were so called “experts” predicting it after the fact? I’ll have to go back and look for some interviews just for amusement.
6:12
Wow
Brill!
Best
I don’t think humans realize that their brain has a conscience of its own. It creates habits and routines, and if you don’t know this, you can miss out on really seeing. You have to get into the now, if you do this every day, multiple times a day, you can break and mold your brain patterns, but you also have to make sure your brain don’t make a habit or routine of your now, so it constantly has to change, you need to have a relationship with your brain. And you have to learn from that relationship, same has when you are learning how to date, and learn how to love another person. It’s the same thing.
👏👏👏
the error of confirmation = confirmation bias
I noticed Taleb said that Corona is not a black swan and he even talked about a future pandemic in the book. However, I am honestly a bit confused (at least partly), by this being not a black swan. As you mention in the video it is a sucker problem. Although Corona might not be a Black swan for supposedly informed governments, could you not consider that regular people (turkeys in this case) could perceive this as a Black swan. I mean, I think a lot of people find this event, and its horrifying economic consequences for normal workers, a Black swan. Whilst they may understand that Pandemics are possible, the extreme consequences might still be quite surprising. Or am I totally off here? Thanks for great video.
Rafting in Australia? Crocodiles, sharks, snakes . . . I’d hav taken the skydiving ;P
Amazing video, thanks so much. Could you maybe make a video on positive black swan bets you see? Best regards from Holland!
Awesome, I've lived in Delft for 6 months when I studied financial mathematics there 😊 I don't have any such videos planned at the moment, but I will add it to my list of ideas - thanks for the suggestion!
The Swedish Investor I’m guessing then you took courses with Pasquale Cirillo in financial engineering and then came upon Taleb’s work that way? They’re both brilliant thinkers and applied scientists
Feel like I missed the point here while kids were jumping on me... statistics shows that human perceptions and predictions are misguided and therefore we should invest at the ends of the spectrum or get insurance? I just can’t see that as a good conclusion
It is easier to judge if an investment has a very high risk or a very low risk, than concluding that it has a medium risk. You know that a portfolio of governmental bonds will be very low risk, and similarly, you know that a startup is very high risk. If you want to achieve medium risk (on balance), it is therefore better to combine very low and very high risk, than investing in something that is said to have "medium" risk.
2
3
reduce exposure to negative black swans
Coronavirus is a major Black Swan event. We are living in a future Swedish Investor video!
Michael Duncan it doesn’t fulfill the first condition of being a black swan. World history has plenty of examples of pandemics to choose from. We just happened to be living at a time when the next one is happening now. Coronavirus is a gray swan
Ilan Hirschfield good point! It is a known unknown. Thanks!
Michael Duncan glad to help :) stay healthy and safe out there
If my tutor teach like this I would get a rank.Thanks Mr.Swedish Invester.
What we are living right now
I like the Mediocristan flag- its like Ukraine but with hills:)
Was that your Design or is it from the book?
Hehe my intention was for the flag to represent the normal distribution - it's quite subtle, but yea. Not from the book 😊
Thanks for your awnser! I liked the clever design!
Keep up the good work! I realy like your channel!
@@TheSwedishInvestor
Thank you Ale Donh! 😁😍
Fifty Shades of Grey is a Black Swan
One could argue that covid-19 is a black swan. Noone expected this pandemic, but afterwards everyone could see that a possible new disease could arrive at any momemt. However it is not an outlier, in that sense that we have seen a pandemic in the past, that have had a huge impact on society (spanish flu etc.). In recent times however this is an outlier.
Thoughts anyone?
The normal distribution is not normal.
11:25 so Extremistan is basically Iceland
Scottish philosopher David Hume in 1761 summed up the "black swan problem"
Reuploaded!!
Yep, I will reupload/improve all of the videos on Nassim Taleb's books, based on his request 👍
nassim nicholas taleb movies?
? vs fooled by randomness 2001
black swan 2010 vs the black swan 2007
? vs antifragile 2012
skin in the game 2019 vs skin in the game 2018
So because YOU didn't see something coming (or listened/conversed with anyone who did) that makes it a black swan.
Correct! It depends on perspectives!