Skin in the Game | Nassim Nicholas Taleb | Talks at Google
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- čas přidán 7. 11. 2018
- American essayist, scholar and former trader Nassim Nicholas Taleb, whose work focuses on problems of randomness, probability, and uncertainty, discusses his latest book "Skin in the Game".
Nassim explores the notion that 'skin in the game' is necessary for fairness, commercial efficiency, and risk management, and key to making sense of the world at large.
Get the book here: goo.gl/XbpgLR
"You should never tell people what they should be doing. You should tell them what you're doing."
Nassim Nicholas
Not an original thought, but still poignant.
@@GR_BackingTracks indeed, thank you
:)
*Some timecodes:*
0:45 How I write
2:50 Lindy effect
7:00 Skin In The Game
11:35 Ludic Fallacy
14:15 Expert Problem
25:03 The Golden Rule
29:20 You cannot have political opinion without attaching a scale to it
30:50 Risk as virtue
32:50 The system don't learn because people learn
35:40 Law in Switzerland to limit the income for chief executives (didn't pass)
36:10 Christology
40:30 When people tolerate inequality
45:20 Which surgeon would you choose?
Q&A:
47:05 Is mandatory conscription gonna create less wars?
52:25 Peacock's tail is NOT USELESS
53:20 How to decide what to read?
54:18 How long can a group of experts survive if they do not have "skin in the game"?
57:40 When the military intervention is justified?
You're the real MVP
Good golly that peacock guy was salty.
He talks as if he was high. When you are high you get the most interesting and genuine ideas, it's like a firework - but you forget each within 5 seconds. You start a sentence and by the time you get to the end of the sentence you don't know what the heck you were trying o say. At least that's what I was told by people who smoke weed.
You sir are the real deal
GOD BLESS YOU
Baldness is an evolutionary mechanism for people to have more skin in the game, all else being equal.
And its not an angency problem too
fair enough
Baldness is just a way to have less hair in the game, fatness on the other hand...
@@commonsense6093 yeah, fairly "platonic" :-)
Also those who haven't hedged tail risks?
I once visited a hotel where they gave you a $10 daily credit if you chose not to have your room cleaned. I liked that.
I keep a sign "dont disturb" on my door. That way, the room cleaners keep their jobs, get some time off, I keep my privacy and they keep my 10 USD for their wages.
U can't walk away from risks u've created for others. Excellent line
it's unbelievable how he gives the talk in this kind of a fractal manner where it's sometimes difficult to make sense of certain elements but as it starts approaching the end, everything becomes clearer and clearer and at the end it all makes sense - really good talk and interesting ideas!
Yes it is amazing. Same for his books.
@@AltumNovo Yea....his books were REALLY hard to read for me. As someone who enjoys books. Its like all over the fking place I can't even tell what he is trying to say.
I'm not sure what you got out of it please I didn't think any of it made sense. There was some very good points in the wild wait. Some good rules. But I found them hidden like a needle in the hay.
He is soo scattered, it's really hard to follow what he is trying to say
He knows he speaks to the generations with divided attention. Their little device they nurse-maid, and the globules of competing beliefs in their spongy neural structures.
14:40 Taleb: Don't invest in restaurant business
2020: yes
17:46 "an epidemiologist will not be an expert"
2020: yes
@@emanuele3696 except when you you're one that travels to locations with outbreaks and knows a big one could take your friends and relatives.
This man's way of implicitly devaluing certain professions is overly simplistic and outright stupid sometimes. No true Scotsman fallacies abound.
@@Di66en6ion There is no saying that a person who bears risk by putting his/her skin in the game will not make bad decisions. Epidemiologists ought to make masks mandatory by February 2020 but here we are
@@Di66en6ion He is speaking in generalisations - of course there will be exceptions. I disagree that his devaluation of certain careers could be considered implicit. Could you possibly provide an example of a no true Scotsman fallacy in this talk?
I think if you read the book you might see that he touches upon many of the qualms you currently have.
Peter Thiel has same advice
I like the peacock guy. That's skin in the game. Really putting yourself behind what you believe and that too by confronting Nassim Taleb on video that would be put on CZcams instead of quietly in a paper or in front of a receptive audience setting - ultimate risk taking.
Except it was a Q&A and he didn't have a Q.
@@dawgish4834 No, but I had an A.
@@Bjrnstman Ty… even Taleb can comment out of his area of expertise.
+ Talks at Google Hey,
Around 34:37 Nassim speaks about a peacock. In the subtitles there is a part described as [INAUDIBLE].
The word he is saying there is Zehavian, as in Amos Zehavi, who coined the term "Handicap principle", and used the peacock as an example for it. Please see: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Handicap_principle
So the sentence should be:
" And... The peacock, you know, the Zehavian peacock story, the peacock, why does the peacock have a big tail?"
Noticed it too, must be a captioning algorithm that replaces 'I don't know/understand' with [INAUDIBLE] even if 'Zehavian' can be heard clearly :)
thanks man.
"Identity Politics is a form of Racial Segregation". So true, so very true.
@JimboParadox identity politics is segregation based on race and identity . in India we had Muslim identity politics for a very very long time and now we have Hindu identity politics. The Left is finished in India
@@keyurpatel503 it separates people into those who believe in a monoculture of a fabricated multiculturalism, and those who think multiculturalism is a fair and open interrogation of every claim of each identity group, as was the case in places like Al-Andalus, regardless of the identity group. Of course, I exclude the actual racists, because the latter group of free-minded skeptics often has trouble explaining to the former group they're not among the racists, that all they want are rational explanations. Mind you, the inventor of political correctness is Robin DiAngelo, a white woman with severe insecurities. Every idiot member of every minority (mind you, I'm a minority, and a leftist) drank the Kool-Aid served to them by the physically manifest Get Out character of a white liberal lady out to validate her xenophilia (a kind of racism described by W.E.B. DuBois, though he called it negrophilia).
Hello Keyur Patel, how are you
@@keyurpatel503 what if we still have leftist tendencies in India but under a new name?
The leftist operating under the leftist name are all but finished.
But their philosophy lives on well under a different more dangerous banner.
The guy got pretty sentimental about the peacock
He married with one of them, the most nihilistic.
I appreciate his intervention, and the fact that he is passionate about peacocks.
Now everyone knows he's an "evolutionary biologist", whatever that means , even though he's been working on ads for that past 10 years in Google.
Taleb ought to find another useless part of Peacocks :D
Funny thing is, if the Peacock's tail were actually useless, there wouldn't be any peacocks with tails. Same point made by Taleb, strange how Taleb misses the application in evolutionary biology (especially after citing evolutionary biology several times).
I love how he constantly goes out of his way to insult economists lol
HE FAILED FOR THE FIRST TIME IN LIFE IN ECONOMICS iHIGH SCHOOL)
@@josefrancis7126 The man holds an MBA from Wharton, taught (and teaches) at several prestigious universities, has held senior positions at major companies in the financial industry, and has, by all accounts, had a very long & successful trading career. Rather than attempt to diminish him, it might be better to listen.
That is because economists are crap. I know, I have a degree in the field.
@@Onir500 on lighter note, you have skin in the game
@@Onir500 was d
He's got so much he wants to get out that he can't stick on most thoughts for long.. not a great speaker but interesting and genuine
My thought exactly. Give him a second chance though? I've been working on a book and who knows how that is going to go if I have to talk in front of some people.
Also because he expects more from his audience, like any good Professor. The modern expectation that an author should be able to communicate complex ideas to a clueless class [what every audience is to an Academic], is irresponsible. You can do that with Harry Potter but not with the books NNT writes.
I literally can't follow his thought process he jumping around like crazy barely explaining things.
@@natehaber2598 read the book. You will get a longer more coherent narrative.
Definitively interesting, he makes you think even if you are not convinced that he is 100% right about his categorical statements.
7:20 The guy in the bottom left's reaction to no spoiler alert
Nassim Taleb's book antifragile changed my life. I am so excited about this book. & also scared.
Sam Joel can you tell me how your life changed as a result of reading that book?
@@galbisabdi5807 Education mate
@@tanjiro9293 explain further
@@mo0on487 I had huge personal changes in my life after I reading Antifragile. I'm better for it now, but there was a lot of stuff to go through at the time. If the new book has the same affect, there could be more big changes to be made.
@@tanjiro9293 i’m in the middle of antifragile and every time i sit down to read it i want to change up my life
7:16 Guy on left - "Dude, WTF!? Spoiler Alert!"
What do you mean by ‘guy on left’?
Well, of course i'm refering to the ANTIFA millennial in the parking lot taking a dump on top of your Prius.
51516 Thanks for the clarification! I like your name btw! Did google program you?
To me it's more like: why can't you revive him???
he should have read it by that time
Great to listen to Taleb always A rare mix of truthfulness and genius
What an idiot.
Taleb smacking his 3 appearances per year, lately. Enjoy this gem.
We need to keep this guy alive for a few generations. The world needs him.
What is this We? Speak for your own ball bag.
The segment at 46:27 reminds me of how Russell Peters said he'd never go to a doctor who was an Indian man raised in North America.
At 56:50 he says ”Vuitton bags” not completely inaudibly.
I completely agree.. so many books, especially the nonfictional ones can be summaries instead of full books!
you should be a blinkist customer then lol
@@nozrep do you like Blinkist?
Fantastic, Taleb's ideas are powerful and profound.
I love Taleb's books, but whenever I hear him speak I have no idea wtf he is talking about.
❤hahah same!
This man is a freaking polymath. He wrote shit in a old school volume style like a freaking G
47:17 The most important point in this discussion, by far! 😎✌️
10:00 Right! In Ancient India, people became, say, ironsmiths first and then eventually understood metallurgy. Technology preceded science.
However, for more complicated and advanced technologies this is not the case. There is no way that "craftsmen" would first invent nuclear reactor and only then develop a physical theory behind it. I would say the same applies to all modern semiconductor industry.
Yes, Tech gives us Science in most cases. I don't know if your claim about Ancient India is entirely true, so let's keep it real.
No, dumb*ss. India had and has a caste system which places Brahmins (intellectuals) at the top of the chain and the technicians/workers (Vaishyas) below them which is opposite the point of Taleb. Go read his books, he specifically states this.
Pay attention to what the speaker says at the 03:50 mark. czcams.com/video/_j13xfvMUms/video.html
@@OttoFazzl Nuclear tech & theory hasn't been around long enough to say whether it is a true counterexample or an exception to the general rule. Also, Fermi created the first working reactor before large parts of the currently accepted theory was known. His tinkering invented a primitive, working reactor in 1942. Meanwhile we're still waiting for the complete, correct theory (formerly called GUT) to arrive. Indeed, the current state of theoretical physics is more unsettled today that it was in his day.
I read ‘Antifragile’ a few years ago and did not like it, less for the actual content but his tone. But listening to this talk absolutely blew my mind. Taleb is spot-on. Controversial, destructive but sincere in his statements.
Antifragile systems are what HFTs use. Those systems thrive when chaos increases
What Naseem Nicholas Talib labors to illuminate in a highly organized manner is: at least partly understood intuitively by most folks, in some parts. This is why his academic exercise on the chosen concepts resonate so well. E.g. The Yogi Berra quote, which itself resonates so well because it encapsulates the obvious in a comical rememberable way. Where Me Talib excels is he objectively examines and chronicles these ideas, some well known and some not so well known. IOW we all have an institutional understanding developed over centuries of experience that is not formally passed by wrote absolutes repeated and tested on. I love his books because they're like a statistical model. You may uncover unrealized correlations, but if the model is Amy good, it also confirms the obvious. He's a delight to read and I hope he continues to find motivation and reason to continue his exploration and documentation of interesting aspects of our human condition.
sweet its the same talk he did with Naval.
Christology suddenly made sense to me. Virtue signalling via risk. Christ had to be human in order to suffer. Wow. Thanks, Mr. Taleb.
But Jesus is human and God, that was the struggle around the christology.
Thank you!
I was expecting a technical graphics talk about rendering of skin in games.
Great mind!! Keep going nassim
This guy is a freaking genius.
Except for his misinformed opinions on actual science. I'd go out of my way to punch him in the face.
47:50 - hair in the game
I just adored this,very helpful I have so many questions and nobody but Google to ask. I'm going to read your books asap because I'm super confused and the anxiety about this path is intense.
if you are not a person with tech/math background, i would highly recommend going through Khan Academy's statistics playlist before reading his books :)
You will find it comes down to simple ethics.
What about George Orwell's 1984?
Didn't that major book written in 1947 anticipate on the future ?
So,by way of consequence some books are also written to perceive and understand the future
Just read the book ! Nassim is my favourite modern thinker, but listening to him discuss his ideas is like listening to Mozart mangled by an 8 year old.
i think that is part of why he is an author so that it forces him to flesh out all those different ideas running around in his head
Mr. Taleb, Google has changed in the past 6 years, they are the IYI now.
“Keep the volume down on that bitching, Flatch Adams”
- Sgt. Lincoln Osiris
Thanks, guy in green at 51:49, for letting us know you have a degree at evolutionary biology.
A narcissist attended Taleb's talk? What a coincidence!
I heard of him via the Black Swan but never listened to any of his talks. Very insightful man. I will buy his book.
I click on everythink new with Nassim N. Taleb!
Despite his rather harsh ways this is what a genious sounds like: very sophisticated ideas with complex and imense impact; delivered in short, concise, very easy concepts.
Really. Cause I don't understand wtf this guy is trying to say at 12 minutes in. Fascinating, but utterly confusing.
@@harryheart6018 thats on u m8
Literally never seen him so calm and agreeable lmao
You mean in the flesh or on twitter
The answer about Truth was very deep. truths that are useful and impact individuals in society will eventually survive. And I guess that happens through through mutiny and/or overthrowing of a regime or change in Governing party
Seems like he was nervous at first. First few minutes were bad but around minute 10 he became more articulate. I'm glad I didn't skip this talk too soon.
Yazen Kashlan you don’t watch Taleb for his articulation but rather his wisdom and disses.
other Way around?
He actually at some point have non-smoke related throat cancer .. This explain his way of speaking .. regardless no one can deny the wisdom presented.
48:39 Taleb on deadlifting and speaking on the risk of his own advice .
Interesting comment that society should move back to the apprentice model for building relevant skills
Brilliant !
Wonderful!
I'd be psyched to see this philosopher in person!
philosopher, really?
@@thriversoffset village idiot, hello, so happy your here!
Translation of “skin in the game game” into German would be “Die eigene Haut riskieren” “to risk ones own skin”. However most Germans would understand and prefer the English version
I think that you're taking quite a bit of a leap there by going too literal. To have "skin in the game" is vastly different from having "YOUR skin in the game". Damn German articles! :D
Had it been up to me I'd have translated it into "Wer nicht wagt...", the beginning of the German phrase "Wer nicht wagt, der nicht gewinnt." which, again loosely, translates to "You can't win, unless you take chances."
LMAO at that angry peacock guy
Actual RAGE. Funnily enough, he doesnt get the point of actual use as in: being able to actually fight a predator, or just signaling that you could. Which is exactly the point.
He’s such a pea(cock!)
That guy must be dumber than a rock
Scaring off predators IS useful.
@@lucifermorningstar4595 He's right though. And a better example would be anteloupes doing showy jumps in front of predators.
Will i able to understand the book(I am not smart) or what can I do to understand it ?
Give them a shot mate!
i must attempt his book(s), especially considering the initial statements. Although many of his examples in this talk were smashers, some did not make sense to me ( I felt the questioners delivered some valid critique). 'i take risks - i make tweets' (?). the unsubtle knife. I guess it depend on ones point of view, ones priestly height "bumfff" as he lands back to earth. scales of risk. 'Soldiers in Normandy' - risk of death was great here but i'm sure the majority of soldiers were 'actually' there under gravity of duty (draft) rather than wonder lust - although it may have been exciting, terrifying, empowering for them,, war and young men etc. He talks about levels of risk but understands this differently to me (cos its complex). But there were some great observation and he did talk of scales of risk. evolutionary edies can burst new banks. rococo - baroque - classasicm - modernism - contemporism. His swing at the world hacks a mark but his nose seems very bloody - the cost of his in-elegance? But still there were some great observations and I will read on! thanks.
"If a book is boring - close it"
It's wrong on many levels.
what a dumb question he asked
This man is so fucking intelligent I love listening to this stuff!
49:04 yes lifting and mobility can help recover from injury
Someone was pretty enthusiastic about correcting a figurative description of a peacock tail.
dude really went up there thinking he's contributing to the discussion
it wasn't figurative and Taleb does the same shit.
@JimboParadox scaring away predators while it not actually being useful in a fight is signalling.
I like this guy.
"Skin in the Game" in german = "seine Haut aufs Spiel setzen". There is a german bishop, Reinhard Marx, who wrote a book on economics called "The Capital / Das Kapital", drawing a lot from the concept, 2 years before the Black Swan came out.
I would read this guy's books... but they are too new. I won't know if they are any good for another 1000 years.
Then go read Seneca and feel the bliss
The thought that if we forget the lessons of the past are doomed to repeat it rapidly comes to mind when I look at our economy today. While we constantly refer to the "2008 financial crisis" it has been chiefly forgotten and we have learned very little from it. The following article is a stark reminder that we may have learned nothing. brucewilds.blogspot.com/2018/05/often-mentioned-2008-crisis-chiefly.html
extraordinary man
Thanks
I don't understand the surgeon example of who to pick. You pick the one that looks like the butcher? Because he had to overcome more? Can someone clarify thanks!
I thought it meant that if you don't look the part (i.e. the stereotype) and still made it, you clearly had to work a lot harder at it.
2:43 modus operandi: a particular way or method of doing something, especially one that is characteristic or well-established.
17:45 man we learned that the hard way in 2020. Love this guy!
I wonder how certain types of philosopher - certain types of metaphysician, say - could have skin in the game? Aren't there kinds or levels of theory that just can't really be approached in this way?
But yeah, great lecture.
falsification creates the standard ...thx Karl
@@alletklameista But isn't the point that they don't suffer if/when they get things wrong? Their points may be falsifiable, and may be in fact false, and may even have been shown to be false by some critic or other - the philosopher can ignore that criticism, or fail to see its validity, or not even be aware of it; the philosopher can therefore keep making the same points, and not suffer at all as a consequence.
@@benjamingeorgecoles8060 reputation maybe?
@@alletklameista Yeah, I guess reputation goes some way to fulfilling this role. Maybe a key point is just that it's harder for everyone to know what's right in those very abstract discussions. That's probably a reason to be suspicious of them, or especially cautious with them.
Nobody predicted Google but Douglas Adams did create the Hitch Hiker's Guide to the Galaxy, which was a continually revised universally online volume which was electronically accessed. Now, maybe google looks a little tame by comparison.
He has an interesting manner about him
When he mentions at around 11 minutes “people who come from theory and go into practice blow up” does he mean it in a negative way in that they can’t handle the reality of practice or in a positive way as in they are really successful?
he meant In a negative way
20:31 Talking about Robert Shiller. A good friend of his.
Amazing how he can be so smart, yet listening to him is like swimming through a pool of rusty nails.
dear sir madam or zir, listen to non-echo-chamber-content more frequently.
It's a fair point. He's brilliant though.
Actually he wrote about this...Its pure intention :)
Jeremylan Definitely not as smart as he thinks he is.
@Sam Fortune He's in his own category. Like the you need to pay money to read my thoughts category.
20:20 He just explained why the entire education system of the world is eroding.
Ok. I am leaving this comment just as I bring up the presentation. I am familiar w/ Mr. Taleb's work and the fact he was one of very few who predicted the market crash in '08.
I will definitely be reading this book when I get a chance because if his premise is that people across the socio-economic strata need to feel like they have skin in the game for a free society (or any society really) to work then I agree whole heartedly. "Skin in the game" has been a go to talking point for me for like a year or so now. And I am just super pschyed to hear someone else say it! Plus his audience is way bigger than mine. (God bless all my coworkers for listening politely, they're good people)
Changing minds is both the hardest and easiest thing a person can do.
He put up chapters of it on Medium, but not everything is there. I recommend it, as well as Antifragile to anyone
Thanks for the reply. Never knew about the website.
Surf your insight C.D. - take action! Stay curious and full of courage - E.V. Hodge.
Lots of truth.
I made it 34 minutes deep. My dude is probably more charismatic on paper.
Great for a bike ride... No need for him to be interesting. The takeaway is to only read the last chapter of his book, "Skin in the game." He didn't get to this point until almost the end.
10:02 - illusion that technology comes from science
13:37 - the more uncertainty there is, the more certainty is in what to do.
28:00 - skin in the game consists of 1) dynamics over time 2 things change in scaling
28:48 - individual is a different animal and a group is a different animal
46:23 - How to hire people? Which people to hire and fund
48:14 - the logic of risk taking
Great guy
This is a brilliant guy. Love what he has to say on war. My own take on it is this - if you want to go to war in some foreign land, cash out all your assets, grab a gun, and get in the front line. Otherwise shut the hell up.
See Harry Browne Constitutional Peace Amendment that addresses this
@@joeblow2387 yea thanks for sharing. Unfortunately very few of the relevant rulers give a rat's a$$ about the constitution as it is
@@JustinPavoni I year ago I would have disagreed. I am from the "duck and cover" generation. The last year has been a real eye opener for me. More than COVID, the things I have learned about almost every institution I thought I could trust has left me pretty demoralized.
@@joeblow2387 Duck and cover ain't gonna do shit if a bomb hits. Kinda like staying isolated inside with a mask on your face and a bankrupt business is going to make you more likely to get sick from a virus (not less). Everything the media says is a lie. Big business and government are an organized crime partnership. It's much worse than you think and it has always been this way. Best thing to understand is that it's all about the media and the banking system. Listen to a guy named Ryan Dawson - best reporter I have found on the internet. Stay out of debt. Buy gold and silver and keep it at home. And support as many small and independent businesses as possible (ideally use metals to transact). That is how you beat them (starve them by not patronizing their weapon - central banking and fiat money).
Question: politicians are judged by voters, who are their customers. Still they take really bad decisions? How do we explain this again?
To be effective, feedback needs to be as quick as possible. At one time in our history, two, four, or six years were a short time, but not now. One science-fiction story posited a leader who could do whatever they wanted, but was subject to immediate feedback via implants, and if enough people gave negative feedback it could be quite painful.
Wow that guy was very emotional about peacock tails. Childhood trauma?
He's that guy who probably steers every conversation to the one subject his erudition shines. I feel sorry for him, this is immortalized now - and with reference to how Taleb uses the example his gripe is entirely irrelevant. He's the guy whose says 'yes I struck and killed your child - but it was not my bumper that killed him rather his head hitting the pavement!' Emmm, OK!
@@Kobe29261 His argument sounds like BS in any case. If the tail is large and beautiful to scare predators why is it only the males? Why do other animals not also implement this strategy? Would it not be better to focus on building muscle for speed rather than a huge tail that will weigh you down? The uniqueness of the strategy alone suggests it is mainly about costly sexual signalling, not survival.
@@benyaminewanganyahu " Would it not be better to focus on building muscle for speed rather than a huge tail that will weigh you down?" Evolution isn't really conscious at any rate so would that make any difference? Evolution isn't a convergence towards the optimal but a brute-force "If it works it works" approach
The books that have endured the test of time must therefore hold some kind of survival truths.
He talks as if he was high. When you are high you get the most interesting and genuine ideas, it's like a firework - but you forget each within 5 seconds. You start a sentence and by the time you get to the end of the sentence you don't know what the heck you were trying o say. At least that's what I was told by people who smoke weed.
this is true
26:40
Good to know I am not the only one with anxiety attacks.
I'm reminded of marriages for alliances. Fusion of fates.
"Whether its readable or not they pay the price."
I like this boomer :D
Good ideas in fractal format
Microtubular
Taleb around 51:20 'عفواً'
Isn't the Lindy Effect only 'correct' once during the lifetime of any play? ie: halfway through? Isn't the Lindy effect - by definition - usually wrong?
bad attribution to darwin taleb
he never said survival of the fittest, the concept is that their is no genetic makeup that is superior to another but that there is a specific adaptation for each individual environment. kind of like a hummindbird
LOL @ the angry peacock guy!
WHO IS THE CLIENT OF GOOGLE?
nice
bruh he just roasted that dudes painting
I'm going to tell you about an interesting concept, oh this behind me?! It's just a piece of shit painting that has the same name.
42:30 funny moment where he says fuck
06:40 "What is recent will be replaced by something more recent." Technology.
This is btw the German version
Me as A German, oh yeah that's indeed German :D I just recognized it after he told so :D