The Incoming Great Economic Megadrought of 2021 - The Fall of Empires
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- čas přidán 10. 10. 2021
- To the average observer, these twin streams of water may seem pretty, boring and inconspicuous. Not even worth a second thought.
And 20 thousand years ago There was no one here. And to be honest, could humans even live here? I mean outside of these two rivers, there is nothing but deserts, heat, and extremely dry climates that no ancient human would want to live under for sure...right?
Yet..around 10,000 BC, we began to see the first settlements occur around these rivers. One such settlement was Abu Hureyra.
6,000 years later, we began to see more advanced human settlements like the cities of Ur, and Uruk which had many structures that we would recognize today like houses, monuments, walls, and ofcourse...government buildings run by theocratic kings.
And all of this advancement of human civilization was only possible because these settlers had two sources of fresh water, that they could use to drink, and cultivate food. I mean...if these two rivers were to disappear, than these cities are essentially in the middle of the desert with no food or water in sight.
But these cities kept expanding. Eventually, there were so many different cities and territories along this river, that someone thought it might be wise to conquer and unite them all.
And of course this man was...a local gardener. But not just any gardener, he was actually the gardener and cupbearer for the King of Kish, meaning the this young man named Sargon, had more power than his employment title would suggest.
And years later, he would use this political power to displace his own king, and crown himself the true king of Kish. And it was after Sargon declared himself king, that he began his conquests over all cities and kingdoms along the Euphrates and Tigris rivers.
His conquests were successful, and decades after his death, the succeeding rulers of the newly founded, Akkadian empire, would continue his mission by trying to unite all people along the twin rivers under one ruler.
And it was by this point at around 2200 B.C that the empire became something that mankind had never seen before. There was a flourishing of culture, technology, economics, and unification all under one ruler. This was truly, the first great empire, that the world had ever seen.
So...if things were going so great, then why isn’t the akkadian empire still around today? Well, one of the troubles with trying to build an empire out of people with vastly different beliefs, cultures, and lifestyles, is that there will almost always be some sort of conflict or revolting within the empire at all times.
But, many historians think that these revolts were actually only a small reason as to why the akkadian empire isn’t around today.
Because in the year 2200 B.C the Empire was at its peak, but less than 5 decades later, the entire empire ceased to exist...so something else must have happened.
And maybe to figure that out, all we have to do is to look 2000 kilometres west, to find an old kingdom.
You see the great pyramids over there? Well even in the year 2200 BC, these pyramids were already quite old. In fact, many people back then viewed the pyramids as we today view buildings like the taj mahal or Buckingham palace. Thats how old the pyramids are.
And many of us have seen images and videos of the pyramids like this, where its the 3 classic structures, in the middle of a desert, with nothing else in sight. But if we take a slightly different angle, we might start to see a clue for why the Akkadian empire collapsed.
You see, less than 2 kilometers away, exists a branch of the Nile river, surrounded by the sprawling metropolitan cities of Giza and Cairo, with lush farmland on the outskirts. And just 10km away from the pyramids is the heart of the Nile river.
All this means is that humanity, over 4000 ago, built vast structures, sprawling empires, and large metropolitan centers, solely around one water source, in one of the harshest climates in the world.
And at the time, this was a great idea, and no one had a reason to believe that something...very very bad...could happen to their rivers...as there was no recorded evidence that anything extraordinarily bad could happen.
But then...seemingly over the course of a few months to a few years, the Nile, Euphrates, and Tigris rivers
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Sorry for leaving youtube for a bit. If you didn’t know, I had a bad staph infection, then randomly needed a foot surgery a month ago. I needed some time off to mentally deal with all that.
Anyways, the steam page:
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Next video is already in the works, it wont be as CGI heavy, and will feel more like a normal video.
*likes own pinned post*
Glad You’re Back Jack! 🤗
I am here to touch myself to this video. It became big and swollen. I've been needing to do this ALL day. What? I had a busy day and I need to massage my feet because they're swollen.
@Jack Chapple. Happy thanksgiving my Canadian brother
Welcome back Jack. Missed hearing your teachings on a few things. But very glad to have you back. Greatly appreciate you.
Ancient mesopotamia was not desert with two rivers, more like swamps and sawannas. What we see now is result of climate change and millenias of agriculture.
True. Novice not understanding history.
@@GSAZYNSKI agriculture isn't destructive. It's man engineering his environment to suit his needs. Like anything, water should have a price based on the scarcity and demand and supply of it. What you see as destructive I see is merely a change in the environment.
@@kles44 you have to understand the Sumerian cities had been watering the same plots of land for a thousand years. The mountains where the rivers came from were heavy in salt, this salt ended up in the land where the plants were grown. You can go there to this day and still see the salt crust everywhere.
@Don Juan perhaps consider that standard 7th grade story is not the most accurate take. Recently it Has become clear that it was not a desert, as it used to be touught. Look it up.
@Don Juan lol yeah sure... "they" are changing the narrative, not scientific knowledge is progressing. And you know that cos something, something California xD
I'll take the experts position on this one, despite you making such a compelling case for yours lmao
With inflation at its highest level in four decades, recession is now "the most likely outcome for the economy". People wonder how to grow their portfolios to beat inflation and maintain a successful long-term strategy. I looked for investors who were making around $250,000 in this troubled market. This is one more reason why you should save and invest to secure your income and ensure your success.
There are many RIAs out there, but finding someone you trust to help you seems like a big deal. This is why I work with Eric Barrios and so far it has been worth it. Eric Barrios doesn't hesitate and unlike most financial advisors, he doesn't take advantage of himself, but makes sure to serve you to the best of his abilities.
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When the world needed him most, he returned...
Lol 👍
@@Hamsteak look at your country before 30 years and look at it now,your country is going to collapse as us ppl moving away from jesus and Christianity and supporting gay rights so God did this to you and I hope your country collapse within 5 years
@@rayan-bx2mv wtf 😂
@@ayoungdev1793 we will see if 5 to 10 years from now you will be laughing 😃 😀
@@rayan-bx2mv Why five years? Seems like kind of an arbitrary number. Why not six years? Why not four?
That 3D model of a dude was really uncanny, please don't
Explain?
@@Aaron.Monroe That 3D model of a dude was really uncanny, please don't
@@Aaron.Monroe The lip synching was off by a half second which it took me a few minutes to realize the CG guy was supposed to actually be Jack's avatar in this video.
yeah. i was gonna say htat. good try, but not necessary hahah.
Agreed
Brazilian here. We're on the cusp of (another) energy crisis (and consecutive economic recession) as our grid is mostly powered by hydroelectricity and our reserves are dipping into historical lows. This is getting more attention now but probably too late. Great video though, short and effective.
You voted Bolsonaro, enjoy it
Has it reached 2004 levels
@@guillermobeltran7811 bolsonaro didn't build the electric infrastructure. Massive power dams were built starting back in the 70s. Brazil had a nuclear power program and should have continued with it. It's the best source of energy.
@@guillermobeltran7811 Chainsaw man
@@kles44 Well everyone was bullied by the US into keeping fossil fuels that's what killed nuclear everywhere, that and fear mingering
Glad you're back my dude. Just wanted to clarify, california is not a primarily dry and arid state, you just think so because alot of people live in LA. The north gets a ton of rainfall, it's climate is similar to that of Washington and Oregon. The irony is that the place everyone lives in gets no water while the uninhabited areas get too much rain.
Yup very true Everything North of California is basically the complete opposite of L.A. very poorly researched video
So why not take water from there
@@omarb1912 probably cost and litigation. The keystoneXL pipeline went through 10 years of litigation and a few billion in cost. Completed 8% of it before biden vetoed its permit. California is painfully litigious so any effort to pipe fresh water south will take a decade of legal precedings plus constant delays form environmental protest.
@@MissionToast You are 100% correct. The population would never let it happen, especially with any potential impact on the sequoias (redwoods).
The parts that don't get alot of rain but close to the coast have desalination plants though. Literally 12 and few others potentially getting built in California.
If you check the temperature of the planet 10000 years ago, you will realize that those places were not deserts but green places.
It was less about temperature than rain fall patterns being pushed North from Central Africa across the Sahara and the Middle East.
Great great job making this video. Great talent you have there Jack. Looking forward to more videos from you.
Probably a good time to buy some material goods that have objective value. Food, heating equipment, water purification tools, etc…
Nice to see you back in action! I hope we will see many more videos from you in the future. You do a good job on both those videos and in economic analysis.
Future archaeologists will have more evidence of our existence because of this: plastics. "Eureka!! Another intact Lego sculpture!"
“Unless the Lord builds the house, They labor in vain who build it; Unless the Lord guards the city, The watchman stays awake in vain.”
Psalms 127:1 NKJV
The numbers with California are seriously misleading since so much of the "wealth produced" is from over valued tech companies, Facebook is worth many Billions but it could become the next My Space in a couple of years as an example. Huge amounts of California manufacturing has moved elsewhere like Texas that is much more business friendly, unfortunately many Californians also moved elsewhere much to the regret of the people of the states they moved to.
@@Tombstone_Active Very true. They will not change either. Many still believe socialism will work, because it "has never been done correctly." There is already conflict in smaller populated states like Idaho. Once they reach a certain percentage of the population, those that ran from their self-inflicted problems in California will bring it to the their new state.
Myspace was only 2 years old when it was bought by News Corp in 2005. News Corp sold it to Justin Timberlake for $35 million in 2011 it has had 3 more owners since.
Myspace's highest ever revenue was $800 million in 2008 when it was 5 years old and it has never made even $100 million in net income in it's entire existence.
Facebook was founded in 2004 it will be 18 years old in less than 2 months.
Facebook's revenue for the 3 months ending 30th September 2021 was $29 billion and it's net income for those 3 months was over $9 billion.
Facebook will never be the next Myspace because it makes money hand over fist and has $70 billion to spend to transition to any future industry if it's current one starts making less money.
Is FB over valued? no, it has a earnings to value ratio of just 24 that's less than Apple, Google, Amazon, Pepsi, Coca-Cola, Johnson & Johnson, Walmart and Ford for example. Sure Boeing and General motors have much lower earnings to value ratio's but neither has had a good last couple of years.
Disney has a earnings to value ratio of 138 that's terrible but no one thinks Disney is going to disappear in a few years.
Now Tesla on the other hand has a earnings to value ratio of 306 that's terrifying and based on the delusion that Tesla will be the Apple of electric cars.
"You must take a very different tack if you are to navigate the difficult waters ahead. You must see that you are here for a purpose, and this purpose has a destiny in this world-at this time, under these circumstances-and begin to adjust your life accordingly. You must accept that financial storms will continue and will even increase in magnitude and use this awareness to re-evaluate your circumstances, to allow Knowledge to guide you to where you need to be and to what you need to be doing.
Do not hold on to the past here, for the world is changing, and you must move with it. That does not mean that you agree with everything [that happens]. Of course not. But it means that your life is moving. Do not hold on to people and places and things. Allow things to be in flux and to be rearranged. And if you cannot see clearly, then wait and watch. Be patient. Do not believe the proclamations that you hear around you, but listen for the truth of Knowledge in others."
A quote from *The Coming Financial Storms* by Marshall Vian Summers
Thank you so much, Ivan. I read this text and it gave so valuable information and directions how to prepare, what to take into account to make sure I'm not the first one in need of immediate help, when these things occur.
Ty!
Thank you, Ivan.
Extremely good video and information, you have the gift of talking like a very skilled teacher, easy to understand.
As you mentioned…cost of living = high taxes and government bureaucracy is making people leave.
Man you make really nice videos to fall asleep to, first six minutes you could of summarized save people and yourself time
little too annoying of a voice to fall asleep to tbh
We missed you. Glad your back!
Thanks Jack, always an interesting program, well done.
As a California resident, I say this is accurate to a point. Los Angeles is not the whole state, and a lot of the rest of California is not seeing people leave.
You are right on our water issues, but that isn't just California's curse alone. The rising stars of Vegas, Phoenix, and Albuquerue face the same existential issues.
As an Oregonian, y’all are dipping out of there in droves.
First wave US climate refugees are all over up here. It’s like oakies during the dust bowl.
@@CannaCJ The weird part is that the majority of those that left the state headed for Nevada, Arizona, and Texas. Most cited cost of living, and did not have diplomas.
So they are going from a drought... to a drought.
I have been waiting patiently for Jack to come back! So happy to see the videos again.
This video could have been twice as long and i would have & still been glued to it
legend has it he is still glued to his couch an tv to this day
Kept checking into your channel to see if I missed any updates. Great video, absolute spine chilling !
That’s the problem. Growth. Population growth. That has to stop.
Every man must decide whether he will walk in the light of creative altruism or in the darkness of destructive selfishness. MLK
@Ziplokk what do you define by perpetual welfare. And why do you care so much, a large reason America is failing(and its global system) is the push for a job based society that must never stop consuming.
A UBI is coming no matter what you want, automation and ai are going to eat ALOT of jobs. And eventually all this extra work that does not need to be done will stop and we'll lose even more jobs
youve watched way too much tv
Missed you bro… hope you’re doing well!
Finally!! 🙏 I’ve missed your videos bro !!!
I feel like I'm watching an adult swim sketch, I'm stoned enough to appreciate the effort and not be completely horrified.
Thank you, Jack Chapple ! Your research is impeccable, and your ability to reason through the implications of your research belies a very superior intellect. I appreciate your posts. (and I’m an old, 64, boomer - still a hippie, though!)
Peace
I was waiting for you!
I work for a local water department in South Los Angeles & have a degree in Hydrology from Sacramento State. you missed one key connection that would have helped drive your point home a little harder.
okay. So at the end you mentioned how many people are leaving California yet the demand for water is still higher than the supply (replenishment)
this is in a time of many people are using less water due to tier 1, tier 2 & tier 3 financial penalties.
so, people are using less water which means water revenue is lacking & lacking revenue results in less money for maintenance/upgrades. which leads to higher prices. which leads to less water consumption. which leads to a failing infrastructure. it's a negative feedback loop. we are currently trying to update as many pipes as possible in (Compton) but we're lacking the funds, which leads to leaks, which leads to wasted water with no revenue. plus it doesn't help that I get minimum one call a day about a driver hitting a fire hydrant which spits out water for a average of an hour before being shutdown.
and maybe one might say, "but all that water is absorbed back to the water table via percolation" well guess what, California is a concrete/blacktop state with drainage that leads to the ocean, there is no percolation.
sorry for the rant. I've been drinking. I love the content
TL/DR version: you talked about California usage outpacing Supply/Replenishment. I supplied the inside nuances why. (Usage/replenishment as it relates to Revenue/Maintenance & the repercussions thereof)
I hope you are feeling better Jake! I enjoy your videos.
3d model guy reminded me of a rubber band at verge of snapping apart.
The collapse of the first colonization on Iceland was brutal. That midevil mini ice age did some brutal damage to food supplies planet wide.
foretold, informed megadrought.
Glad you are back and that things are improving.
Hey! Great video! could u add a tracklist for your background music? its cool :) Thanks!
Good to see you back jack
Love these videos!!
It was the 5th consecutive year of everything falling. Everything was still in place.
This channel is great
Can’t wait for the Zimbabwe super inflation sounds fun!
Incredible channel
Well said. Jack.
Been waiting my friend! Thank you! Hope all is well!
Bro thank you I just put all this to gether glad I’m not the only one
Romans 9:15 For he saith to Moses, I will have mercy on whom I will have mercy, and I will have compassion on whom I will have compassion.
Romans 9:16 So then it is not of him that willeth, nor of him that runneth, but of God that sheweth mercy.
Romans 9:17 For the scripture saith unto Pharaoh, Even for this same purpose have I raised thee up, that I might shew my power in thee, and that my name might be declared throughout all the earth.
Romans 9:18 Therefore hath he mercy on whom he will have mercy, and whom he will he hardeneth.
Romans 9:19 Thou wilt say then unto me, Why doth he yet find fault? For who hath resisted his will?
Romans 9:20 Nay but, O man, who art thou that repliest against God? Shall the thing formed say to him that formed it, Why hast thou made me thus?
Romans 9:21 Hath not the potter power over the clay, of the same lump to make one vessel unto honour, and another unto dishonour?
Amazing video
10:20 where did you get this western music?
Héhé tu es de retour cool
What is the name of the trumpet song in this video @11:08?
Bro! Been waiting for you!
Sounds like the poles shifted.
Dude, welcome back
Congratulations on your project.
You can add Harappan Civilisation (Indus Valley Civilisation) that also perished around the same time ( roughly 2000- 1500BC). And yes drying up of river Saraswati is one of the many reasons estimated to have caused the fall of the IVC.
This is like the history channel, suedo science and not lookin at the whole picture. Completely forgeting to mention the sea people with the bronze age collapse, kr the fact that modern technology and suply chanes mean that calefornia wont starve
Amen!!!!!! This is very much a narrow view, leaving out soooo many other factors.
Ok was about to run my mouth but you just brought it up. You see kids this is why they say watch full Video, lol. Enjoyed vid and info.
AH / 24 Oct 2021 AD : I watched all of this presentation. I commend you.
what is the name of background music at 4:01 ?
You're a bad ass. Keep it up please.
The difference is the ancient empires fall was due to a weather change, California's fall is due to a political change. Self inflicted damage.
Close. It was crop failure due to the loss of nutrients in the soil. Thank your lucky stars for the Hopper Method!
Their political change was in part necessary due to environmental changes.
Excellent content
Whats the song at 8:08?
Amazing info!!
love your videos
Welcome back!
Meanwhile in Alaska where we don't need water... Cloudseeding, everyday.
Great analogy. Although the Sahara desert is going in cycles of 24 000 years. Every 12 000 years it goes from jungle to desert. The amazon has the same cycle but are a jungle when sahara is a desert. It's all part of a natural cycle.
Source?
His arse
I'd be interested in how much unnecessary swimming pools aid in the waste of water. With one in almost every backyard in southern California and pools refilling themselves automatically after evaporation, what is the loss? Keeping that water in the natural lakes would seem a much better place after watching this video. Just a thought.
Irrelevant compared to something that uses millions of litres a day like almond farming.
Aztec society collapsed because they cut down the forests to create more farmland. The rains stopped, and they sacrificed thousands of people to appease their gods. still no rain.
There is a new invention: Process of converting seawater to hydrogen, piping it and reforming it to freshwater that converts seawater into freshwater AND transfer it inland at minimal cost. It can be powered by solar cells. This investment would last generations and would avoid the uncertain weather.
Downsides: The energy costs are astronomical, far greater than just desalinating seawater, and hydrogen is harder to pipe than water
@@greenmario3011 You fail to understand the process. True the cost of converting seawater into hydrogen and oxygen is very high, but the second fuel cell reforms water and recuperates 95% of the spent electricity, so the net result is that it costs only 5%. of the original desalination cost. In addition you have to take into account that hydrogen gas, much like natural gas, can be transferred far away at high elevation at a tiny fraction of the cost of pumping water, thereby adding considerable savings to the total cost of ownership.
@@climatehero So you've got a massive bottleneck stopping you from doing this at any real scale. Even very large and expensive fuel cell setups produce a tiny trickle of water at best. Hydrogen is also more annoying to transport and store than I think you're imagining due to the absurdly low density.
@@greenmario3011 What bottleneck, since the new technology has yet to be deployed?
Large PEM electrolysis 100MW+ are being built by Siemens, among others.
There would be little or no storing of hydrogen since it would be quickly converted to water.
The transport of partly compressed hydrogen gas by pipeline would not be "annoying", just read "Long-distance transport of green hydrogen".
@@climatehero Fuel cells are not "new technology", we know how they work and they operate at a much lower throughput than you'd need to supply drinking water to an entire city on any kind of reasonable cost-scale. If you instead mean burning the hydrogen than, well, there goes all the efficiency.
Hydrogen is extremely bulky, constantly leaking, and explosive in the event of a larger leak. These factors make it annoying to transport.
Don't forget how much water Las Vegas uses.
Chaco Canyon NM and surrounding settlements may have had a million people. 800 years ago the populations just disappeared. Drought? No one knows for sure.
what a wonderful video - it really helps put things in perspective.
California & Arizona farms learning the hard way.
The snow n rains will come. Hang in there Cali
Welcome back
Fancy that! No water in the desert?
Glad to see your back at it!
Well that’s 15 min I’ll never get back
One other point could be made. In Mesopotamia over time the Sumerians salted the soil making it almost impossible to grow crops. Modern agro has depleted 50 percent of top soil. I wonder what happens when it is gone.
Not sure if you're referencing the USA or Globally. In either case, the UN publishes an agricultural report annually. According to the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization, agricultural output per person has increased by 50% since 1960.
@@2007bowman output and amount of topsoil is two different things.
I still didn't understand the relation of Egypt to this whole story, are u trying to imply that Egypt will be great again cuz of the Nile river or the US will face the same fate as ancient Egypt?
Interesting. Well done. Witch came first as a Civilization *( Western Civ ) Ancient Sumer or Ancient Egypt ???
Oh yes California what a paradise!! Just ask the addicts and homeless!!🤣🤣🤣
Only 10% of water in California is used by cities. Most of still used by agriculture. So at worse food prices will rise a little within USA and maybe worldwide.
Hate to break it to you, but most likely no videos from today will exist in 4000 years, unless its on actual old school film reels.
Hey Dude there were more rivers & water in Indus Saraswati Gangetic planes... More people lived there than any ancient empires & still do... Why is history so eurocentric or Anglophone?
Read "Confessions of an Economic Hitman." Then everything will make a lot more sense.
This guy definitely works for the global times
China?
California actually has plenty of water but new projects are hard to establish because of environmental concerns... for example, delta smelt, a small fish, has been decimated already. There's an aquifer in the Mojave desert that could be drilled and would help alleviate some the water problem.
Frankly, humans will always engineer wherever they live. Part of the issue is government provides foolish incentives. How many crops are grown in the deserts of California that are water guzzlers (keep in mind how much water evaporates in that kind of climate to top it off)? Pot for example uses plenty of water but the environmentalists probably don't care about that particular crop...
But anyway, what is the price of water in California? That's the real issue. Often governments shield people from the real cost of a commodity and water is a commodity like anything else. If water becomes more scarce the price must increase... this will naturally cause the more expensive and wasteful forms of agriculture to decline and people to manage their consumption. The middle and upper class urban dwellers who demand lush green lawns will decide if it's worth the money to water their grass all day. And finally, if the government would get out of the way a good businessman will build desalination plants and charge an appropriate price....
But beyond this desalination plants are by far the easiest way to solve the issue but once again this faces some opposition from environmental groups. No matter what the issue is and no matter how much sense a particular solution makes, someone will object.
You keep thinking that the gulf will not turn the southern Midwest into a jungle with monsoons.
The dense foliage from the southern US states is spreading into a fire and Ag hazard by sheer biomass.
Correction: This is the year 5781 since creation..... @=@
Nice
You went 6 months without posting. That might explain why most viewers aren’t subscribers
“Then the sixth angel poured out his bowl on the great river Euphrates, and its water was dried up, so that the way of the kings from the east might be prepared.”
Revelation 16:12 NKJV
People will ignore the Bible at their peril. The history of empires in the Bible is the most accurate account in existence.
you vastly overestimate how much we need california. they don't produce anything important, we can just move it
You are using technology invented in California.
@@tltaber50 so? its not like it HAD to come from california. those companies can pick up and move any time. terrible argument
There are many sites all over the world that are dated back at least 20-35K years
and Pyramids of Giza are old at least 12000 years. :D
Are you going to start back on stock suggestions?
When you have nothing but HATE THAT'S WHAT YOU DO