Why the world population won’t exceed 11 billion | Hans Rosling | TGS.ORG
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- čas přidán 30. 11. 2015
- In part 5 of a 6-part lecture, Hans Rosling uses statistics to give an overview of population growth and an explanation of why the total human population will never reach 11 billion, as others predict and fear.
thinkglobalschool.org
Who else thought this was a Ted Talk at first
You mean it’s not a ted talk?
What?
Fuck me, duped again!!!
that's where I first saw hans
Confused Captain - it was a Hans Talk!
me
I'd be more engaged in lectures if more lecturers wielded spears.
HAHA haha funny 😂😂♦️♦️♦️
:D
gold comment
😂🤣😂🤣♥️🤣😂🤣😂
Thank you for causing me to literally laugh out loud.
Ha ha yeah Made me laugh like mad and big grin :D This must be the bloke who manufactured the coronarvirus and let it out just so he was proved right!
First time I've heard this guy speak and I assume from comments that he has now unfortunately passed away. What a brilliant speaker. I love his style and definitely will be watching more of his stuff.
Martin Hendy he wrote a great book: Factfulness!
Ya read he died at only age 68 from Pancreatic Cancer. :(
poewhite isn't what you call sleight of hand actually just a simplification of the fact that that 0-15 cohort comprises of European / American / African / Asian components each of which are reproducing at different rates, but in aggregate are roughly at replacement level? So the makeup of this cohort will shift over time from primarily Asian to primarily African (assuming a continuation of current fertility rates in the various regions). Which he details in the final part of the presentation.
The logic seems good. It's bolstered by studies showing that urbanization goes hand in hand with reduced family sizes, and as you know there is a powerful shift towards city dwelling in most developing nations.
As for "snake oil", what exactly would he be getting for peddling this? He acknowledges the environmental impacts of increased population, and is simply illustrating why an increase to around 11bn is an inevitability unless we actively get rid of people or sterilize them.
I am not sure that the critique of Mao is justified though. The 1-child policy did succeed in limiting the growth of the Chinese population, meaning that they will soon be overtaken by India. I assume that the 0-15 cohort in China is relatively small,meaning that even if they move their fertility rates to replacement levels, their population is going to massively shrink relative to their neighbors (not to mention the US which has been importing ~1mn immigrants per annum on average hence is at much higher than replacement levels when coupled with their fertility rates of close to replacement).
@poewhite There are many factors at play here which could influence fertility rates in those regions, granted. We can't be certain how Africa will fare, but if that region pursues the same approach to development as others have, fertility rates will likely fall. So I tend to agree with Rosling's projections at a high level.
However we are not doing a deeper analysis of environmental factors here i.e. climate change, resource shortages of various kinds taking the steam out of runaway global economic expansion, ecological collapses of various kinds constraining growth even further. All of which certainly could act to constrain development in Africa. Whether that leads to greater fertility rates or causes a massive spike in death rates due to famine, or both, who yet knows?
What we DO know is that the 7-8 bn population we currently have on the planet is causing catastrophic environmental impacts, never mind the 11 billion he predicts. So I'm in violent agreement with you that this is a very bad thing and we should not be complacent about the impact of massive numbers of human beings seeking to improve their living standards - it's not viable.
But Rosling was not a snake oil salesman and there was no "sleight of hand" or devious intent - that's my point.
@poewhite Hm ok this conversation has taken an unexpected turn. "The white west" you fantasize of is long since departed. The ethnic composition of the United States is 40% "non-white", with non-white cohorts such as African-Americans, Hispanics and Pacific Islanders having significantly higher fertility rates than caucasians and asians - so that proportion is only going to increase over time in a very not-lily-white direction. Further, US congress members come from a diverse range of ethnic backgrounds (refer below). So where is this "white west" you speak of?
www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/02/08/for-the-fifth-time-in-a-row-the-new-congress-is-the-most-racially-and-ethnically-diverse-ever/
In any case, the ethnic composition of population groups is not even being examined in Rosling's talk. This is a different topic entirely. You're stitching in notions of racial purity and Zionist conspiracy. Ironically, it is this very world view - splitting humanity into groups segregated by ethnicity, nationality, religion and culture - that provides much of the impetus behind population growth. A world in which the economic relations between groups is largely controlled by a powerful oligarchy focused on securing its own interests, simply ensures the continued impoverishment/servitude of under-developed parts of the world, and perpetuates their continued exploitation. In these desperate circumstances, the poor multiply precisely because they perceive no other way to improve the odds of their long-term survival.
The reality is that people share the same existential problems regardless of their ethnicity or which nation state they happen to live in. Our best chance of dealing with the issues we deal with as a species is to recognize our common plight, erase the arbitrary racial/nationalistic/cultural labels, and begin working together to rein in consumption and intelligently manage our global population.
"poor women are clever otherwise they are dead" holy shit
I wonder what that means, would you mind explaining?
He is referring to women in Africa being clever about reproducing more kids to survive in the future because they know that if they don't reproduce they will die due to not having the support children will provide in the future, does that make sense?
@@ultraviolet.catastrophe You could survive being dumb in a wealthy country. But being dumb in poor country is killing. Poverty is more selective, more Darwinian environment.
Both of your replies actually make sense
@@SF-ow5ru yes perfectly
I wish he could've followed statistics for fifteen more years.
rest in peace:(
RIP
Oof did he croak?
@@ubberJakerz, why does no one every just say "die"? Why always use some metaphor?
@@d.lawrence5670 because English is more interesting than that
A few decades ago in the days of CB radios, a truck driver said to me one of the most profound things I've ever heard:
"May you live as long as you want to, and want to as long as you live."
10-4 good buddy.
59acres? Where?!? 😰 🤔🤔🤔
Slot, I don't believe in god, you pathetic brainwashed fool. now go back in your truck, 10-4 buddy ...
"Assholes such as yourself are the reason hatred is... " - who is the one showing hatred?? "I wish your kind would immediately die off in massive numbers." versus what I wrote. lol...gimme a break...
So you do see the irony of your comments...you are the violent one...
Hans is an example why we have to increase life span of older people. Once you live your life and find your passion you become a jewel in the crown of human society. Hans, you have done really good job. Best work I ever seen explaining it. I am so sorry that you will not do that anymore. Adieu, au revoir, bon voyage, farewell, goodbye and godspeed old chap...
8:12 We all wish he could've had 15 more years :(
Esteban Cabrera
Yeah, I feel bad because he didn’t ask for much
He knew he was at the one of he's life span
RIP Hans, thank you for all the wisdom. It was really a punch-in-the-gut feeling when you wished you could live for 15 more years, but unfortunately fate had a different plan. Once, again I sincerely thank you for your efforts in making us understand the world a bit better.
Ugohigh 1 person per m2 in 200 years my arse. Try counting.
If you believe any of the VERBAL CRAP this guy spews, then watch THIS video about ACTUAL crap in India. That is the result of massive overpopulation. czcams.com/video/V35Vw29tay0/video.html
Russ G, you obvious didn't watch this whole video, at about the 11 minute mark he starts explaining that in poorer countries, specifically African counrties but can also include India the population is massively increasing because parents value having multiple children over what their children do.
Ugohigh, You're either a troll or an idiot. I'm going with troll because no one is stupid enough to say the shit you do.
I hope he is burning in HELL for his obvious lies, as India and Africa are all exponentially increasing their population. Look at any graph it has sped up, not slowed down thus far.
Rest in peace you beautiful human being.
Hans Rosling, you have showed me so much, and given me hope with that insight. Thank you.
I finished "Factfulness" just now, really great book written by Rosling. I loved the book so much; it is full of useful, interesting and important information. RIP, Hans Rosling!
Thanks for the tip, I just ordered the book.
I miss professor Hans. What a great person, lecturer and professional. RIP. ✨🙏🏼
Hans Rosling. We miss him.
I really wish he had lived to 100 and beyond.
Genius!
True! Rest in peace, Swedish National Treasure!
Bill Gates probably had him killed. Watch “Black Code” on Bible4truth channel.
I'm a historian and this guy is missing so many points, that it is ridiculous.
@@petegrusky2715 Educate us.
My appreciation of Hans Rosling is not a blind adulation. I would love to hear the alternate perspectives.
@@BikashKumar-pz8hc I think he refers to the previous comment about "Black Code" on Bible4truth but I might be wrong. If that's not the case, I agree with you.
"Conceptually, children are moving from Asia to Africa".
I love when a high level thought such as this is grasped and articulated in such a concise manner.
TheRandomest and he subtly took shots at eugenicist psychopaths like the billionaire tyrants who are robbing Africa and want the people out of the way (dead).
@@faithalonekjv5123 And stimulating emigration instead of improving their home countries.
15:48 I got so sad here. I also hope you could have got there. You were an amazing man
mmm ;(
Not me
Hans was the Mr Rogers of Statistics to me. He was a brilliant man.
Sadly, Hans Rosling didn't make it into the 75-90 age group he hoped for. Hans Rosling: 1948-2017.
:´(
At least predicted correct life expectancy.
Amazing.
Ugohigh, I've never seen so much cancer in one comment.
I was raised Jewish and last time I checked I have no plans of world domination at the moment, though that might change with morons like you running around.
What happens to people like me? Nobody knows that? Nobody has family that are undertakers? They die. We die. Old people die.
Doesn't mean we won't miss you Hans Rosling.
We already do.
@@LoisoPondohva He didn't get his extra 15 years
RIP
I am actually an undertaker...
At the end of the day, I hope he's right. There's something genuine and good about his passion for these topics and it's a damn shame he never got those fifteen years to keep on studying those statistics.
He gets closer and closer to being correct with every year, and with the human population reaching a balance for the first time in its history the only questions that remain are what we should do to ensure our planet can house us all. This isn't a conversation of apocalypse, just a question of how to live better.
We have encroached much too far into the natural order. Look at the UK, for example, from space and you see almost every inch carved up into fields and urban areas. No wild spaces left. Very sad.
Earth has enough resources to feed 30 Billion People according to researchers from USSR.
He's not right, though. And he wasn't honest about the growth "not being exponential". When humans went from 1-4 billion, that was definitely exponential growth, because it always took fewer and fewer years to grow by one billion. The rate at which humans are being added, plus the relatively low death rates in the world mean that globally, we will definitely grow well past 11 billion humans. There is simply no mechanism in place to stop this growth. There are 80 million more humans added every year, and this rate is not abating -- if anything, it's increasing.
@@Panamenya There is a mechanism, and it's called people being better off. It leads to people having less children and the birth rate declining. And as for the statistics I can find online, the rate is decreasing, albeit slowly, for now.
@@Panamenya And as for the statistics, search for "human population growth 2023" and click on the website named "MacroTrends" and you will find the stats.
Will remain immortal by his works. What an excellent educator with the most amazing and simplistic way to share knowledge. We truly miss you Sir.
15:50 Hearing him say "I hope to be this one" just runs a sliver through me...
My geography teacher always gets excited about this man, even after showing the same video each year 1000x
Seda den Boer Lol mine aswell
be careful. he says many bad things; "this is why we should support UNICEF". he pretends that his calculations include epidemic disease, political conflict and big climatic events. but they don't. i promise that, when you are older, the geography teacher will seem stupid.
What age exactly
1. in this video, Rosling promotes UNICEF. about 20 years ago UNICEF was converted (by america) from promoting the health and prosperity of children to preventing african babies. they want a "clean genocide". powerful governments don't want to lose control of africa's colossal wealth.
2. when you have your own child OR have serious responsibility for a child OR love a child.... then you will understand the beauty and importance of family life. you will understand how it is central to happiness, culture and civilisation. you will know that these propagandists are more than idiots. they are genocidal psychopaths.
3. perhaps you think i have jumped to an extreme conclusion. perhaps you think i need to be more flexible and open to ideas.... open to possibilities. i promise, you will grow older and recognise these evil stinking shit people. you will recognise it instantly.
so you're saying that UNICEF is being used as some kind of tool to commit genocide for the sake of the wealth of the western world?
It’s a pity we lost this guy. He was a great teacher. And here he’s absolutely right.
More lecturers need to use a medieval spear to give their presentations. Love it!
Viking
remember my geography teacher showing us his website a couple years back - inspired me to look into demographics and development - now doing a BSc in Geography - thank you for the inspiration, Hans
geography can afford website and engineering and polytechnics don't have a website ? who is fooling whom ?
What a brilliant educator! I only learned he's left us just after watching this video. I'm really sad a wonderful mind and a kind hearted person like him is not among us anymore. But his fantastic work will always live. Thank you for everything, professor Hans Rosling.
I cant stand this guy
What an amazing speaker. I really, really like listening to his lectures.
I'm so sad he died so young :( but he was a truly extraordinary man
Reason why he died: oy vey Shut IT DOWN!
Man I didn’t know 69 was the new young
One bad consequence on limiting nr of children to 1 per family, is that it creates an upside down pyramid, where young must support a huge number of old people.
They'd die eventually
The productivity for every person is much higher today than yesterday. Fewer people produce more. We have machines. We do not need many young to support few old. The population can decline without starving out our seniors.
And that men can't find partners - like in China
also as we've seen in china it leads to too many males not beeing able to find women because they didn't get to live...
@@andvil01 So we can do away with young people and enjoy our worker and sex bots?
God bless Hans Rosling. He is and will forever be one of my favorite people ever. I'm truly saddened at the news of his passing but his life and his amazing efforts to spread truth humorously and simply have, in my humble opinion, given us all much to celebrate. Hans my friend I'm absolutely positive you will be back among us as soon as God can arrange it as I think you're one of God's favorite thoughts to think. Lord knows that right now the world needs men like Hans more than ever. Blessings and support to Hans' family and friends whom I have never met but grieve for just the same. I will say a prayer for you all. God bless the whole world.
I had the pleasure of watching this lecture in its whole live, but in Swedish in Sweden, 2015. Now more than ever, we miss Hans and his work. Reast in Peace 💙
This is a perfect example of why negitive birth rate shouldn’t be perceived as something inherently bad. If people are having less children, it means quality of life is better on average and children have more resources from their parents dedicated to them.
ed champagne Russia doesn’t have the same population density as other european countries, they have stupendous lack of infrastructure compared to other countries with “negitive birthrates” like japan and counties in western europe. Also they have high alcoholism and all the related domestic and social issues such as depression, domestic abuse and suicide in record numbers. People emigrate from Russia too rather than other countries with negitive birth rate using it as an argument to bring in MORE residents.
No, people having less children means a declining economy = less relative comfort/luxury = discontent population = unpopular politicians, which is why every country with a decreasing population accepts immigration to ensure population growth.
Northern85Star That statistically makes no sense, if you have more children, then you are less likely to have more funds than the family with less children (because like mentioned in the video, families in under developed countries have more children in anticipation for a percentage of them dying). Having a family is extremely expensive, with less children more resources of the family (not just wealth this would include attention and raising of the child by the parent) will undoubtedly be available rather than the family that has to care for twice the offspring.
Also the higher overall “investment” in the child means the market won’t exclusively be fixed around “affordable” items (which will be the cheapest items from already large corporation), and will allow families overall to have more luxuries.
In fact the biggest economies historical in are EXPORTING people, this is where colonization of the new world, Japan’s economic expansion + earlier imperial ambitions, chinas industry advancements into Africa, The United States and many more economic superpowers are EXPORTING citizens to expand their countries influence.
If anything it’s obvious the reason why some politicians want more immigrants is because they want people to vote for them, otherwise these people from 2nd and 3rd world countries because of their tradition would be indifferent to their policies if those parties didn’t have interests in encouraging immigration.
The issue in some countries is the cost of living is to high for the average citizen, along with the quality of life. People are too successful to put it straight, a native citizen is going to be raised in a relatively wealthy family with an education degree and a well paying job in these countries. But who’s going to do the low income work? That’s the problem, low income workers have similar cost of living as people who make more money. If you bring in more people to work these lower wage jobs, you will inevitably lower the quality of life because of this classes existence. Not to mention the problems with having a class almost exclusively made up of poor people from different cultural backgrounds, that’s just asking for ethnic tension. There’s no way people are going to get mad at politicians for NOT increasing immigrant flow into a country more than ignoring or being throughout with immigration.
There isn’t a simple answer to the question, with every option there is to maintain this balance, it gives opportunity for the state to possibly tyrannize. Wether this be in the form of expanding outside the borders literally or economically to outsource while maintaining central control of the production, or wether it’s within the nation in a state that controls the economic freedoms of its citizens to ensure resources are distributed in some type of equality. I cannot see how a higher birth rate directly correlates to “higher standard of living and more luxuries” when the highest birth rate nations DO NOT have that.
yung malaria No, you are looking at this from a wrong perspective. A family is fully dependant on the economy of the country in which it lives. A country with a declining population will decrease growth, and thus the economy relative to other countries. There is no economic system that can sustain a declining population.
Northern85Star You are clearly missing the whole premise of the video if you believe that, the exact point he’s trying to iterate is that families were larger due mortality rates be typically higher and/or so families could have more children to help maintain the family. The simple fact is the numbers are declining from overwhelming/unsustainable population per household, to economically sustainable ones because of the said assurance that the child will have a future.
In other words, population is stabilizing not declining.
Excellent presentation; most thought-provoking...
Amazing, simply amazing. The best presentation of the demographical shift I've seen. And such a resilient man 8:14 :-)
Edit: Just learned that he's passed away... Rest in piece
Today we need almost two-times our planet earth from its resouces. If all people live like we on EU-standard, we need four-times our planet earth from its resources. Conclusion: 8 billion people / 4 earthes equals TWO billion people for ONE EARTH. That's the SUSTAINABLE WORLD POPULATION: TWO BILLION People. czcams.com/video/i48bb22fPdI/video.html
AND retirement of the old people will be paid by DIRECT RETIREMENT systems:
eveybody pays for its own retirement.
The world will naturally adjust as scarcity arises or at least that is the hope so long as sudden scarcity doesn't occur things should run relatively smoothly with limited resources.
lol if thats on a EU standard how many americans can the world sustain? 2 million ? :P
_Actually the world can sustain 326,000,000+ Americans as of 2018._
www.livepopulation.com/country/united-states.html *xD*
Andriy Vasylenko oh man that sucks. He gave a great Ted talk. I love this guy.
I am now watching Birthgap- a Childless World, which presents a view that the world will be faced with a new challenge of an increasing ageing population and fewer younger people to work and provide a tax base for services to the elderly as well as people to provide those services. Would have loved to have heard Hans’ views.
I remember my Grandma talking about it. She had 8 kids. 3 survived to adulthood.
I would love to have a cup of coffee with this gentleman. I sure hope the young people close to him are soaking up everything he has to offer our generation. We need more minds like his.
Look on the TED site at the video Hans Rosling
TED@Cannes Global population growth, box by box, from 8 mins 10 seconds in.
"We can stop at nine billion if we do the right things."
When I saw the spear at the start, I knew this was going to be awesome presentation.
My great grandparents lived to 90 and both chain smoked. My grandpa died at 86 My grandma is 78. All older than the “life expectancy” of 71 years. Our childrens children will be older than a hundred
My grandmas died at 43 & 78. Grandad's roughly the same. Life expectancy is falling, even in 1st world countries. Yes, we'll see some records broken with longevity but it won't be global.
I don’t know if I can agree with that statement. Years ago people worked hard to make a living and now it is a lot of desk jobs that allow people to not get their heart rate up. I’m no doctor but just seeing my ancestors who were farmers living just as long as the current generation make me wonder about the longevity of life.
Hans Rosling was simply the best. His death was a great loss to the world and to policy making. I would love to have had his take during the Covid pandemic.
Great explanation, means that over time number of people on earth is a function of:
1. rate of birth => generation
2. rate of death => de-generation.
3. life expectancy affects balancing time of the equation.
Such an easy explanation..such a wonderfully passionate man..got myself a little more faith in the survival and progress of humanity. Hats off to Mr. Hans Rosling.
Fantastic! - great use of displays to convey the data!
Sir, that's a best clear explanation i have heard... Thank u..
Thanos has another solution
Hahaha
and since 1978 we been saying to get vasectomies is the way...promote and give bonus to they that do it...build no child cities for adults only....make being non fertile sexy in advertising...tax breaks.,,,, better jobs for the non fertile.....treat the heroes like heroes for saving the future itself!..that was the cure...this is the doom and that idiot offing you 11 billion people all living i9n middle class = death of ther planet and he knows it...so he lies to make money... a low low being in my eyes
Lenin had proposed better solution for all of us.
All holliwood movies have a message from the illuminati.
Thanos was trying to please mistress death not population control learn ur canon nub
The ability to extract nitrogen from the air and use it in synthetic fertiliser was the primary trigger that allowed population explosion, without that there would not be enough food to support it.
Rest in Peace Hans. You were an amazing Teacher!
What I know is that in my country, the philippines, population keeps on growing and if we dont control it, our countrys resources will not be able to support its people.
Your country, my country, and all other countries are unable to support it's people with their RENEWABLE resources. The non-renewables will run out and the population will be killed back to the level that the renewables can keep alive.
Yes, it's a pity that a man with such charisma (and supported by such tech wizardry) was telling us not to worry about the thing that is affecting humanities demise.
Asia is not too bad, of course, the Philippines, Indonesia could do better, but Africa is the craziest, they are still having 5-6 children. What's worse is the majority of them don't think it's a problem.
@@baxakk7374 Asia have 5 billion population Africa population is equal to China or India or China population is even more so I think Asia is the problem here because u have to combine north ,south America plus Europe plus Africa and still Asia is still leading
Such an interesting lecture. So sad when I looked up the fellow and realized he passed away.
This guy looks like a warrior with that spear.
Wow this is an issue that has been discussed by philosophers for hundreds of years (the best and most recent probably being Bergson's treatment of overpopulation towards the end of his oeuvre), and yet in one 15 minute video this guy has somehow assuaged the concern (even dread) that has accumulated in my mind about this issue; about sex, religion, fear of death etc... this is a wonderful video!
Next Ted Talk: 'Why the population won't reach 8 billion'
Host: "WW3"
(Credits)
@@jciglesias7928 + bacteria develops antibiotic resistance...
Tell them to hurry with that talk. We r now at 7.8 billion.
We are well past 8 billion and heading toward 9 billion in 14 years. The threat that is bigger than WW3 is the growing human population. You could say the growth is slowing down, but it's still growing nevertheless. Within the lifetimes of everyone here, it will never decrease, only ever increase.
I am also skeptical of his extremely optimistic prediction that it will somehow never surpass 11 billion. Sounds like a fantasy. A nicely presented one, but not congruent with reality or human behavior, unfortunately. Since all of us will be dead by the time it does reach 11 billion, we, personally, will never know. But people born three generations from now will find out how wrong and cutely optimistic this talk was, as they're drowning in people and human-generated waste, and as the population continues to rise.
Remember that the ONLY real solution for the problem of human overpopulation is our own collective, voluntary, conscious self-restraint in reproduction. If we don't learn this and act on it, we will not ever overcome this problem. We must voluntarily decide, together, all over the world, to reduce the number of births to below the number of deaths, every year. And we need to do it for a long, long time. Probably a couple of centuries, to get to sustainable levels where there is plenty of room for wildlife and some room for human-centric spaces.
Looking for more talks from Hans ❣️
Very interesting and presented well, thank you.
I thought it was a Ted Talk, too!
I am so glad I found this video, and others Hans Rosling has done.
I miss Hans Rosling . I heard of him much too late, and then he was gone. An amazing chap.
I wish I found out about him sooner but I am only a teen but I’ll make sure to continue his legacy if I become a scientist or philosopher
someone get this man a laser pointer
in his next life maybe
It shows his intellectual understanding of things...
R.I.P.
One less idiot spreading lies and nonsense. May he burn forever in a lake of fire
That's why religion is bad. ()Sven()
Hans died at 68. Thank you Hans for the education, positiveness and humor.
Shocking and truly eye opening and thought provoking analysis of World's growing population.
I adore him! He shows the real power of enlightenment in our time.
Very smart man, and still my guru for data visualisation. Two things he did not anticipate, nearly a decade ago: (i) that the "2 childrens" would actually become one child or less throughout much of the world, inverting the pyramid, and (ii) that life expectancy would increase through a concentrated program of radical life extension. So his blocks stack higher, but they are also thinner at the bottom.
would like to know the source of second point
What a great man, I hope our education system shows his video. Make the world great again
The problem people have thinking of population is that no matter what your economic system , it is dependent on the population of people 15 to 40, max. Productivity, work, economic output, is totally dependent on the young generation, so if your youth decline, so does everything else.
The world need to see this. 💕
Love his spear action.
I read his book.. watched his video... then I realized that he died. RIP legend
Hurts BAD knowing we will never get to meet him.
WHT is the name of his book?
As a person who has been poor in Africa from Africa; Children are a blessing they are an addition to the work force, they increase the odds of your survival more security, more farmers.
The odds are higher that one of your children will marry into a wealthy family or will get lucky and become rich to help all the others out of poverty.
But if you have one child and he or she dies or is "wayward" refuses to work and leads a reckless life you will suffer because elderly homes are not a thing in Africa, children take care of their elderly themselves; a 90year old may live with any of his children who is rich enough or may life with the youngest or poorest child while the richer children send money for both their father and their brother or sister taking care of him. That's how it works down here.
Don't be scared we are not having many children to conquer the world after all we leave the lowest carbon trail, we have played no part in causing global warming. It's only natural that if I know my fruit tree is very likely to die before bearing fruits I should plant 2 or 3 to increase the odds of survival don't listen to fear mongers.
Asians on average are family-oriented and children are seen as the parents' pension plan and nursing homes. It is only in the West where affluent societies can afford welfare and nursing homes. I believe, Hispanics have the same family-oriented culture as Asians.
Notsomuch a “family orientated culture” but poorer economies
@@cw205mi16 Asians are family-oriented whether you like it or not. Yes, there are poor Asian countries but the rich Asian countries still value family compared to Westerners. That is why Asians in the US are also family-oriented, whether they are rich or poor families.
Westerners value individualism more, on the other hand. So personal space and individual freedom are very important to them. It is just a different mindset.
It is also true that poor countries have no welfare. In the past, even Western countries value the family because there was no welfare so the children are needed to take care of their aging parents. So your notion about poorer economies is valid in this scenario. It does not negate the truth that Asians are still family-oriented even in richer economies so family ties are very strong among Asians compared to their Western counterparts.
Asians are family oriented. It is mentioned in many of the comments. But it is not the full truth. At this moment Asian parents are family oriented but Asian children are not. Educated children are going to cities or to western countries to earn more leaving their old parents in villages to fight on their own. So why the next generation will have more children. They will have one or no children. The trend has started in large scale in India.
@@whatevergoesforme5129 I agree with you, and I'm qualified to know this.
He's right, you don't FORCE people not to have children ... You pay them.
That's what he said.
We now pay folks to have children.
Not literally and not all of us. The Chinese actually paid people not to have children for many years. What we need to do is create incentives for people not to have children, especially in parts of the third world, where the resources to feed, clothe, and properly educate them don't exist.
The Chinese also kidnapped women late in pregnancy (like 8 months+) and forced them to have abortions against their will. Not a pretty situation.
No. And you point is what?
Loved this presentation, (if all data are correct). These days it's hard to believe intentions.
Great presentation.
He was exceptional speaker!!! I and the most of the world will miss him!!
He didn't take into count the increases in birthrate experienced in some middle East countries. It was a cute presentation method though. Major problem was an indepth discussion of what would make the "Linear" birthrate decide to become exponentially negative. I don't know the time period of his work but I do know the politicians are continuing to support increasing growth.
If a country experiences a falling population size, it goes to ruin, buildings become unwanted and crumble, whole villages get abandoned, corporations collapse as they lose a cheap workforce. Governments need to plan for an ordered population decline, as a business plans to downsize by shutting certain plants and product lines.
I'm impressed with the late Prof Rosling's analysis and I am largely convinced by his presentation, despite the fact that I broadly accept the Malthusian notion that populations tend to increase in line with the available resources to sustain them (primarily food). However, I do see some problems with Prof Rosling's analysis in practice, not necessarily because he was wrong about the overall figures but because I think these figures alone are only a part of the problem. As was clearly illustrated in the presentation, population growth is very uneven and declines in births in one region are compensated for by continued growth in other regions (Africa primarily). It is suggested that even growth in Africa will fall dramatically once mortality rates amongst the young decline and access to contraception and health services will kick in and do the job. Well, I am far from convinced that mortality rates will continue to fall and I suspect that health services in poorer regions of the world will not improve, and may even decline rapidly (as they have in, for instance, Afghanistan) as the carrying capacity of the globe (food production and distribution) is disrupted by Climate Change and the famines and wars and mass movements of people that will follow. The global population may stabilise at around eleven thousand million, as the Professor said, but if large parts of the world become effectively uninhabitable, and the knock on effects of the resulting refugee crises spread chaos into neighbouring regions (for example, Liberal Democracy in Europe will not survive if there are a hundred million desperate and starving refugees climbing over the barbed-wire border fences in the East and paddling across the Mediterranean on anything that floats in the South). We have to stabilise the population, but on a downward trajectory, because accepting a figure of eleven thousand million when we have no plans in place to feed such a number, let alone see that they have access to contraception and health services, is a recipe for disaster. Whether we can do any of this in practice is highly debatable and personally I am not optimistic, but giving up all attempts would be a counsel of despair and would seal the fate of out children and grandchildren, and I'm not yet prepared to do that.
What he did not address was migration - Africa is currently flooding the world with migrants, whilst they continue to increase their own population.
@@charleswhite758
"Africa is currently flooding the world with migrants, whilst they continue to increase their own population."
I'm afraid I smell a whiff of racism here, but let's give Mr White the benefit of the doubt and address his point. Africa is not "flooding" the world: the poorer regions of the globe are the most impacted by the Global Warming, and resultant Climate Change that Europe and North America have inflicted on us all. These disastrous impacts will make much of the world uninhabitable and so of course people will flee the famines and wars and societal collapse this will bring. As I said in my original comment, there is a massive job to do in trying to stabilise the situation and I am not that optimistic, but it is the responsibility (both moral and practical) of the richer parts pf the world to get together and work out where and how to put in the necessary resources. it is not just 'their' problem... it is 'our' problem, and to be blunt, we have more to lose than the poor sods in Africa so we'd better get on with it... sharpish!
@@exiled_londoner BINGO! I just knew that would be the response from some one. Why not just read what I wrote and respond logically. Did I even mention race?
You are infantilising Africans and perpetuating negative stereotypes by your comment "It is the responsibility .. of the richer parts pf the world to ... work out where and how to put in the necessary resources". That sounds to me exactly how things were in the colonial era. You are literally saying that Africa is "the white man's burden". It's not.
For example, the UK gave Rhodesia independence, as they wanted, they had huge wealth in natural resources and fertile soil. They destroyed everything and now their economy is in ruins. There is no problem from "global warming" there. Stop making excuses.
Start respecting Africans as people who make their own decisions and who must live with the consequences, the way we treat all other nations. Is there something wrong with Africans which makes you feel they need the white guiding hand for ever? There is nothing wrong with them, let them stand on their own feet - and when they get it wrong, let them help themselves instead of fleeing abroad.
The worst drivers of "Climate Change" (i.e. what we used to call "pollution") are now India and China. You omitted any mention of those two countries.
Makes sense to me. Very interesting.
Best lecture! Thank you a lot.
Came here after watching Utopia on Amazon Prime and it gives me hope.
But Utopia DID address this also. He said that by the time the world population stabilises, all wildlife would be gone. Also population stabilising at 11 billion is not something to feel happy about, since that's even more population than what it is right now.
if you want to reduce the global population the solution is simple, remove poverty and increase education and opportunities. If you look at countries like Iran who have modernised even with a very conservative culture their birth rates are now very low. The more affluent a country becomes the lower the birth rate.
Stephen Border great idea. Instead of saving them just let them die.
While we’re at it the next time someone breaks a leg we just kill him.
Instead of saving them just let them die.
Lets not implement safety measures like the TSA to counteract terrorist attacks.
Instead of saving them just let them die.
The next time a country doesn’t do what the west wants it to just nuke em.
Instead of saving them just let them die.
A child is walking into a hospital with an infection and needs antibiotics.
Instead of saving them just let them die.
Your grandmother needs her medicine against blood cloths.
Instead of saving them just let them die.
Seems a bit cruel and inhumane, don’t you think?
Throwing supplies from the sky is not helping anybody. Third world countries and also electronically isolated places like China are doing their own thing and advancing in their own time. China, for example, doesn't have FB, Google and all the rest of the digital go-to places that we are so familiar with, rather they have copies of it. They are going through the same questions and realizations in this century, just in a different language and a relatively closed environment, although it's worth to point out that there's quite few more of them there than us here (EU here), so they might even organize better when necessary due to language similarities and such.
Rowling said it best that poor families are going to do whatever to survive and thrive. This is human nature. Only help from west that's necessary is fair game in international trade deals and stimulation of entrepreneurship both in the requestor's soil and locally, so that western investment goes into the infrastructure of requester. As can be seen by events in Africa's countries, west (especially US) don't want to play due to inner politics.
Richard Neal, have you ever wondered why more affluent socs end up having lower birth rates?
"Just remove poverty"... Wow, I'm sure no one has thought of this before!
It's not more affluent nations it's women liberated nations. Women ruin society when given too much freedom. The one thing I agree with muslims on.
Amazing..RIP Hans
Very informative! Thank you!
Love how CZcamsrs are always smarter than anyone in the videos they are watching. I no longer watch the videos of those buffoons (thanks @David Franco Jr). Instead, I chose my videos based on the click bait title, then I soak up all the knowledge the geniuses of the CZcams Verse are leaving the comment section. I have learned so much from them.
/s
I have been saying this forever!
I am glad I found someone more intelligent and eloquent to show people👍
I recently heard that as we reached 8 billion and then India surpassing China in population, the world birth rate is finally slowing down in 2023.
RIP Hans. Such an intelligent mind.
This is the greatest comment section I've ever seen in my life.
I vote for pulling out !
Fools..all of you. Population will die a slow agonizing death due to starvation
@@jerrymalone1100 "Fools.. all of you!" hahah.. are we larping?
“I vote for pulling out” ..I vote you should too.
Just wear condoms you nasty disease spreading fucks.
@@BulletGramm your sentence can only come from a virgin, or a fcker that has never fcked without condom. oof man really sorry for u, must be a hard life
Rest in peace Dr. Rosling..
Very much enjoyed!
RIP Hans Rosling. What an amazing man
WHAT? He died?
He actually exploded into a mass of wrying babies. "This is OK, we are the 3 billion." The babies are quoted as saying, "We are the new balance."
It's a dangerous thing talking about the future in absolutes. Trends can change.
Trends only change with the introduction of an outside force...not by themselves
His entire presentation is proven moot due to the fact that China lifted their one child policy. That was what kept Asia's birth numbers at an even keel. with that restriction lifted, their population has already shown signs of increasing.
@M P lol of course they don't occur, where would outside forces possibly come from?
@@justing7490 thats to be expected though. thats the funny thing about humans and rules. a small example, i drank excessively once i was old enough just because it was new and exciting, not so much anymore. its just human nature. human nature influences laws and, in turn, those laws influence human nature.
china lifting that policy only affects china, the rest of the world still exists.
@@justing7490 Even with 1 child policy in effect China's birth rate never reduced to less than 1.9 percent. People were still having about 2 babies but were less discrete about it. The number of births in Asia are probably going to remain the same.
You should read his book known as factfulness.
Best presentation I have ever watched
Brilliant!
i think its funny that people don't realize most people don't want to live past 70
Why?
@@mendax2251 would you rather go to the funerals of everyone you love or have all the people you love at your funeral?
@@iordanneDiogeneslucas I think I would prefer to be alive even if I don’t have my friends to enjoy life with
Not me. I want to reach 100+ years old before I DIED. 95-110 years old is good enough for me!
2:10 for those of you doing Meth xD
2:26 "But there's so much crack." I see what he's driving at, world drug war.
Hahahahaha
Lmfao
He said math not meth lol Swedish accent :)
@@King-mj2bn crap not crack
I miss Hans Rosling.
What he hadn't considered is racism and hatred. This is a huge problem as the manufacturing powers displace by climate change and/or defence (war in actuality for resources).
RIP Hans Rosling, you are a hero for me
I imagine Hans arrived from a whaling expedition to give this talk.
Josh Hodkinson 😂👍🏻 So TRUE!!
An interesting presentation. I live in a rural Kansas small town where it's still common where those who com from a family that had 7 children have 7 children themselves. One would think this town would have more than 2000 residents. Because this are doesn't have the resource to support such a population there is an out migration, where kids go to consume resources elsewhere.While there is clearly exponential population growth in many area, I will no longer use exponential growth for, rather simply say ing unsustainable population growth.. There are simply areas of the planet where people will not use family planning at all of any sort. Of core an ubexpecteted atronomical or geological event could be our doom, but humanty could be the cause of the end of humanity. The planent does care it can have a natural death, not missing us at all until then.
I don't think the planet would miss the human race at all, it would then have a chance to get back on track.
Absolutely fantastic explanation
EXCELLENT INFO! Spot On!