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The Shady Truth Behind The Unemployment Crisis
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- čas přidán 12. 06. 2020
- We are living in a world where millions of people have lost their jobs… and we have seen the most rapid spike in unemployment in history. But some things have been going on during this time that many people might find a bit shady to say the least. This is the strange unemployment crisis.
In early February of this year, everything seemed relatively fine, as the unemployment rate was at a low 3.5%, and the biggest economic stories in the world at the time were some cancellations of flights to China, and a mild slowdown in the manufacturing sector of China.
But as we all know, things changed fairly rapidly. In late february, the stock market began to crater, and it had its worst week since the financial crisis of 2008.
China’s Manufacturing sector completely shutdown during that time, and in mid to late March, Lockdowns were imposed throughout the entire world.
All of these factors caused business closures, bankruptcies, and layoffs at a rate that the world had never seen before.
I mean, On March 1 of 2020, the unemployment rate in the United States was still at healthy 4%, but by late April, that number ballooned to a whopping 14.7%, a number that we hadn’t seen since the great Depression. And it was expected to get worse. Much worse. In fact the United States government was preparing for an unemployment rate of above 20% in May, but that is not what happened.
You see, unemployment actually dropped to 13.3% in May, which led many to believe that the re-opening of some businesses, many of which aren’t allowed to operate at full capacity, led to the drop in unemployment rate. But something seemed a little fishy about those numbers.
Because it was expected that we would reach a 20% unemployment rate at some point during this crisis, yet it was being reported that we didn’t come anywhere close to that mark. But as it turns out, we did…
So the very first thing that you should know is that the unemployment spike happened so fast, that the Labour Department had trouble keeping up with the influx of new unemployment data. So they ended up misclassifying millions of Americans in relation to their employment status.
The Labour Department ended up classifying millions of people as employed but not working’, when they should have been in the ‘temporary layoff’ category, and therefore, unemployed.
If the Labour Department were to have properly classified these individuals, than the unemployment rate in April would have been 19.7% in April, and 16.7% percent in May. Rates that are much closer to the expected 20% number.
But we are not done there. You see, what many people don’t know about the unemployment numbers, is who is actually considered unemployed.
You see, the unemployment rate is not a simple equation of the amount of adults that are unemployed within a population. It is much more complex, and I will explain some of the reasons why the unemployment rate is much higher than you think.
For example, did you know that if you are not looking to work, and are unemployed, than you are not counted as unemployed in the United States. And this somewhat makes sense because there are plenty of stay at home adults that are able to work, but are doing time consuming and important activities like raising children or caring for loved ones.
But what we saw in the last 2 months is an increase in the amount of people who are no longer looking to work, and therefore are no longer counted as unemployed.
We have also seen a massive reduction in the amount of work hours for individuals, and an increase in the amount of people goign from full-time work, to part time work.
So if you were to include those 2 factors into the reported unemployment rate, than the rate would be much closer to 22%.
Now, if you wanted to go one step further, we could talk about the real EMPLOYMENT rate. You see, what many people may not think about, is that majority of people in any country actually do not work. That is because when you include kids, elderly people, disabled people, and unemployed individuals… then currently there are only about 135 million people in the United States that are working… out of a population of nearly 330 Million.
Meaning that right now, only 40.9% of the population is actually employed, and currently working.
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Hey Everyone! This is the first time in awhile where i've done 2 videos in a week :) My health is returning to normal too! So anyways, here is a video on the unemployment crisis, and how some of the numbers that are reported, are not the 'real' numbers.
Get well soon bro...
You got a few things wrong. One example is that, yes, Obama changed the way unemployment is counted, but it’s *NOT TRUE* that if you became unemployed and aren’t looking for a job, you’re not counted in the unemployment numbers. Only *AFTER ONE ☝️ YEAR* will you no longer be counted. As such, those that became unemployed recently *ARE INDEED INCLUDED* in the unemployment numbers. Did you not know that, or did you mischaracterize that “fact” purposefully since it fits your narrative?!!
Keep it up broski. great content. love to watch!
Andrei Raducanu I’m interested in your critique of this bit.
If a person is NOT working and NOT looking for work - is that a person expecting to be rehired in the near future? In other words: what kind of a person is unemployed and not trying to gain employment? Retired? Sick? Injured? What about temp layoffs? Are they included in the statistic? And what about people that were on vacation or quarantined - are they also included in this accounting system? I feel your passive aggressive comment was chill at first but the indignant comment at the end was unnecessary. Please don’t respond unless you can curtail your ego and help me to understand where this video led me astray. Thanks
Buddy they're never going to lift these restrictions while trumps in office the mainstream media idiots already prepping everybody for a second wave of fear mongering Verona cirus. unless that moron Joe Biden gets in and then all the sudden it won't be a big deal anymore and they will lift them
There are a LOT of us who lost our jobs at age 60+, and couldn't find anyone that would hire us due to our age. So we gave up looking and took an early retirement. I'm one of those, and consider myself unemployed, NOT "retired", because it wasn't intentional.
My place of work, one of the largest employers in the state, fired all of their employees over the age of 60 in one department due to being high risk for Covid. That's basically half the staff since a lot of the employees were retired, and were working for the health insurance alone.
Magic Unicorn I'm in my 40's and cant find full time employment unless its $10 under the table. It's a nightmare.
I'm 62 and at the top of my game in the tech sector, but never get past the interview stage. I think there is a huge perception problem, and many just don't feel comfortable working with older people. Hmm, kinda what the whole discrimination thing is all about, but is rarely applied to the older worker. So instead of contributing my way-higher productivity compared to less experienced people, I'm on the SSI dole living on 25% of my previous earnings and being a net drain on the economy.
@@ravineseder3133 So true Ravine. Where's the "no more age discrimination" campaign?! I have friends in their late 50s/early 60s who were laid off in the Spring of 2020 and no one will even give them an interview. As if turning 60 meant they lost their knowledge & experience.
'Unemployment' needs to be redefined. Or better yet, 'Underemployment' should be the benchmark for assessing the health of the Labor market.
Economists and politicians need to stop cooking the books.(Working Population)/(Population of the Country)=Employment rate. Stop there.
I thought only China put out fake economic statistics. Well, I guess we joined the club.
There is a measurement, its call U6 unemployment or "Full employment rate. Its about 21% atm
Indeed... would be at 75% in our joke of a "gig" economy
Jen X I actually have a JOB=just over broke and yes I am under employed, underpaid, and uninsured! I absolutely hate every moment of this wretched job. Sadly it’s either gig job or crap job that’s mainly what’s out there for job/work these days. Though it’s been like that for a while now.
Shadow stats says the real unemployment rate is 35%.
Shadowstats > US Government
@@billytheweasel - They are decidedly not part of the US government. John Williams created Shadowstats to debunk the official government fake data. Do more research .
@@patrickclayton8935 My equation states that shadowstats is 'greater-than' the US government. Ho'pe that helps. This ">" means "greater-than" in my intended context, not "implies". Tried to use math shorthand as a courtesy to readers.
@@billytheweasel Okay get it - my eyesight to blame - misread the sign for =.
Shadow stats is garbage; just biased to always make everything look bad. They never count the millions of Americans who work off the books for cash. These people are counted as unemployed by Shadow Stats because they knowingly cheat to skew the numbers bad. At least 10 million work for cash and are not counted by Shadow Stats
There should be a number that tracks everyone making less than double the poverty line. Almost everyone below that point can't buy a house, can't start a family, and can't have kids. Many of the things needed to keep a society going long term a good majority of people do not have financial access to.
Why? When we can just repeat the cycles that breed civil unrest and make money off of that instead?
That's harsh...next will be eugenics. While I don't think ppl should be means tested we should place value in ability to parent and love.
@@rashone2879 lol not really. A lot of apartments around my are affordable at $24k a year. Curb your middle-class privilege
And never mind being able to retire can’t afford to do that either but basically work and drop dead on the job! There are many things that people simply can’t afford at all. Retirement a luxury, housing a luxury, healthcare a luxury and a decent job also a luxury. At least the air is still free? I think...
Don't you think NASA tracks us enough already?
A lot of the jobs in May came from the service sector, not the highest paying jobs.
This shift to majority part-time is due (I think) to employers refusal to continue to pay for health insurance...especially during a pandemic. They're like: "if you get sick, it's your problem, not ours"
I think that actual unemployment is at least 25%.
Yep.
Coming Soon,, Chaos
Prepare yourself folks
Look at the number of people paying income tax. Many people don't earn enough to reach the threshold of liability for income tax.
People who don't make enough to pay for income tax actually pay (as a percentage of their gross income) the most in taxes. That is, sales tax, registration taxes for vehicles, property taxes, payroll taxes (oddly enough not considered income tax) and miscellaneous fines and fees take up an astonishing 45% of gross income for people making under $20,000 per year.
The Federal Reserve will just "print" all the trillions they need - until they flip the switch to digital cryptocurrency - a cashless world. We need a Revolution - but the Sheeple are still hiding in fear and hoarding toilet paper.
“But the stock market is (was) up!! The rich are doing better than ever!! Problem?!”
Homeless in three weeks!!
Lol
stonks go brrr?
N C
Yeah and it just so happens most of those people are the ones with $200000 or more
They are not, having more employees means more people producing wealth for the employer, stock rises but it doesn't mean the profits will rise, so people are having to pay more for stocks that will give them a smaller profit.
The amount of world Poverty is very unsettling and Sad
I agree I'm in university and will be for the next 2 years and I fear for the future and the economy why don't we have a better economical system in place? And why can't people prosper the way they did in the 1950s? I mean you would think that with all of these technological advancements that things would be better and not worse..it's truly heartbreaking 😢.
Just before the panic buying on toilet paper and paper towels, the 4 weeks leading up to that about mid January to Feb 10th, stores were baron. Even during mid day the grocery store I go seemed very abnormally low. I over heard one of the managers talk to a friend saying "Where did all my customers go?"
jmitterii2 everyone is broke
Many gold experts say the unemployment rate is always TWICE the amount the Fed says it is.. so 20% might actually be 40%
I believe you, but can you provide a source for that information?
The data has never been honest. It should store rate full time work, part -time work, people looking for work and people not working, but gave up looking for work.
I used to compile employment and economic activity reports for the state of Missouri, but these reports were for all the United States.
No one actually uses unemployed rates. I mean to say, economists and related types really just use two metrics...employed and not employed. Then employed is broken down to full time and part time, which in turn is broken down to permanent and temporary. A lot of not employed people get paid huge amounts of money, and indeed a lot of regions list paying money to not employed people as their biggest expense of all.
The reason unemployed isn't used by people in the know is because the definition changes. It might mean out of work for the past 90 day, or 180, or 2 weeks even. That's why you get weird figures like 1.5% unemployment. Hence, you should only look at employed versus not employed.
Government jobs should count as unemployed.
they get paid in the 6 figures
They actually did at one point. During the Great Depression they were counted as such. If you used the same standards from today and apply it to then, the Great Depression would have been around 18% at it's worst point rather than the 25%. I personally think they removed gov't jobs from unemployment because the gov't has only increased which would have made the unemployment rate increase. Then the public would freak out, etc.
Great video packed with info as always. Good to hear you’re on the mend .
Facts
Remeber UK Prime Minister Disraeli once said " There are lies, damn lies and statistics"--something like that! :)
LOL
"The only statistics you can trust are the ones you falsified yourself".
Ask yourself, where will I sleep tonight, what can I eat..some are on the street for the first time in there lives...where is the dignity of life for them. how many will off themselves? Did we do something wrong? why are we letting the government hurt us?
Hondo ive seriously considered suicide in the past few months...not gunna lie.
What can we truly extrapolate from theses statistics? What about world economics in play, no one is speculating on the ramifications of China's economy's losses, and India is prime for the the next major economic crash. Globalism will continue on, but only for what seems an exceptionally blessed few?
Nobody ever specified what type of jobs came back though, are these jobs even enough for a single person to live on?
Of course not.
Cali Lavello fuck no
need this type of video on Indian unemployment crisis......
no more call centres
Yes it does feels like unemployment is a lot higher than originally thought although they are reporting it as being lower than 20%.
If you are working a full time job 36 + hours you are considered employed .. any or working less hours is underemployed any one working less than 20 hours is grossly underemployed ..Also anyone who is working and Is receiving less than a living wage should be considered under employed.
But on the other hand some of the companies made billions of dollars during this pandemic but it discouraged SME's and created monoply which leads to a big economical shift.
So there should be a way to create balance in business communities to eliminate or taking unemployement at low level.
Welcome back ! So happy to see the new upload keep up the good work 💪🏼
Overegulation, you need a masters to drive a truck, a MBA to drive a plane, and a doctorate to drive a ship...shortage of workers was predictable and preventable.
USA economically has been going downhill because of competition from:
EU; South America; Africa; Korea; India; China; etc..
60 years ago; these competitors didn’t really exist; USA had a monopoly and more wealth; that is why back then high school graduate could be in low middle class... Not anymore!
China and India alone graduate thousands of PhDs every year;...
...those people are not only competing for your jobs, they are establishing their own industries that is outcompeting native industries!
It really comes down to the “fight” over Scarce fuel/ resources and that the USA and world is over populated!
BTW:
impolite to say this but; unless the general Economics of USA society rises; Civil struggles such as...
...Black lives matter, is not going to significantly change!
K Jhnsn
There Is a indirect link between social movements (BLM) and economics.
There are three main measurements of unemployment
U3: unemployed and looking for work
U5: U3 plus those not looking for work and are not working
U6: U5 plus those with part time for economic reasons (also known as Full employment rate)
These numbers are widely avaliable, so to those claiming "THeY ARe HiDing tHe NUmbERS!" go do some damn research. This info isnt hard to find
Sadly I think it will take a little longer to recover, as most of the jobs are taken by small business which are likely to be taken down in this period, as they don't sit on piles of cash and have the FED backing them up. But we will most likely see the rise of contract, temp jobs which will diminish the impact of the crisis.
Unemployed people are not reclassified from "unemployed" to "out of the job market" not when they stop looking for work. No, they are thusly reclassified when their unemployment benefits run out even though they are still actively looking for work. This is why the true unemployment rate has always been at least double the reported figures since the 1980's. Also, many Americans working part-time get paid less than their unemployment benefits.
Your channel definitely deserves my subs!
Good video. I really appreciate the thorough analysis
Spread this message far and wide !!! Brilliant video.
Jack...dunno who trained you, but you hit the target....like everytime bro....thumbs up
This video more reliable than cnn or bbc
Same system in Canada for calculating the percentage used by the media. Than came along the "seasonally adjusted rate" putting the number at 17.6 percent. It leaves out the people mentioned in the first part of the video.
Best parts is...... Lost jobs were low paying jobs: service positions at cash registers. Most businesses have kept staff in my area and hwys/roads are all busy as are the malls.
Politicians who been in office over10 years caused this economic collapse. Keep voting them in office!
*40
Thanks for the info bro
Hard Time, there will always be a better solution. We welcome you in that journey!
A truth teller! thanks,
I'm a home health aide. Our agency still doesn't have enough employees.
Nurse aides and household assistants got tired of making $9 an hour in PA. /:
our agency still does not have enough enemies
In the nursing I've been getting offers for 9-11 per hr lol
@@wuestion9473 in Massachusetts it's $14-15.50/hr. Plus I get state healthcare, PTO and a 401k. It's flexible, & low pressure.
Home health aides don't make enough money, neither do nurses aide. Too much work & not enough pay. A low pay won't attract workers.
I was bullied for being unemployed !
Wages are definitely being pushed down and job descriptions are getting longer and longer. They're looking for people to perform the work of several professions nowadays.
Bottom line, the US Labour Department is yet another government joke!
Love your content Jack... keep it up
They been doing this for decades.
holy crap your video description is as long as an essay
Rich always make plenty of money while the workers get laid off.
The answer to 90% of all society's problems is that we need to put a cap on Capitalism. The huge disparity in income, quality of life, war vs. peace, media vs. truth, crap vs. quality all comes down to wild unrestrained unnatural capitalism. We citizens have created imaginary artificial constructs such as laws and authority and paper money which allows this crazy ill-thought-out concept known as free market capitalism. Such huge disparities could not happen in actual real nature. Nature naturally self-regulates systems just by existing. I say, if we were able to create all the imaginary nonsense that got us into this mess, we humans can create some new mental constructs to fix everything... simply! JUST MAKE LAWS TO PUT A CAP ON CAPITALISM.
20x or 30x or even 50 times the minimum basic income. Let no person accumulate more money/power than that and many problems will solve themselves automatically. Let the ultra rich spend their money on health care and better wages for their employees. Let them lower prices for consumers. Let them donate their extra wealth to good causes.
You can have 2 or even 3 mansions. But no one needs 10 mansions while homeless people can't find a doctor. WHO'S WITH ME????!!
It's just a matter of time before the government says they have no funds to pay unemployment benefits . With no new jobs and many companies going BK soon , there dose not seem to be any answers for most workers ,soon many will lose their homes and car loans will be defaulted . Terrifying .
Respect and gratitude
Eyeopening
I just love your content man.... Love from India... 🙏🙏🙏
CPI-M is the best in India
@@youtubeuser206 thats why they do not even have half a dozen member of parliament in Indian Parliament.... Apparently in a survey conducted by an independent agency ....CPI or left will extinct from indian politics in a decade..... Surely CPI (M) is no were near best and not a party to put your money on.... 🙏🙏🙏
Hacking has disabled most activities that allow unemployed to claimed. There are many complexities. Took time off because of hacking. Many shift happened.
Great info.
I wish the cautious optimism at the end of this video was still warranted.
has anybody ever asked the question do we actually need an unemployment rate to be low in the first place, why do we need so much consumerism all the time and is it sustainable to have so much development concerning our natural resources? these questions are never asked ....
The proper parameters to categorize workers in distress are: unemployed, under-employed and full-time working but underpaid. Each category creates "Money Shortage Distress." Thus, the 250 million able-bodied, work age Americans who are in "MSD" stood at 60% before the Covid-19 viral pandemic and has now gone up to 75% since the pandemic arrived.
There will be no job come back, our economy lack of driving engine, no super technology such as internet or computer are invented to create new sector of jobs. After this pandemic more jobs will be replace by computer or automation. The unemployment will remain around 20-25% and more social unrest will come.
EDD admit to me because I worked two casual shifts on the dock here in LA that I was considered employed. In the interview after a two week wait I told even if I worked one hour I was employed. Then they wait another two weeks to be qualified for benefits. Soon after I found a job.
Don't forget seasonal workers who work "full time" but get laid off for 4-6 months.......
I haven't worked since 2017 but never collected unemployment, because I live out of reserves and investments, what that makes me !?
A rich person
Stop bragging hotshot.
Officially NOT unemployed.
Vegas RoManiac a racist
O Captain! My Captain!
What about all the people that are self employed but not actually working because there is no business? Thats probably a large number too.
There would be absolutely no such thing as a jobs crisis or unemployment in a world that made it financially worthwhile for people to SHARE the jobs we NEED people to do and work LESS
the dude at 1:16 hit me right in the feelz
Last day in August and the situation has not changed much.
In a way it’s interesting that 1920 and 2020 are comparable.
To be honest we could of kept everything open just had to put in effect the same rules we have now.
If we had shut everything down completely for 2 or weeks, we would be like New Zealand.
I have been waiting on unemployment since march :(
Much better online content out there on the true economy which isn’t unnecessarily sanguine like this one, and they show true root causes, as well as just how long said conditions have lasted. I.E. we’ve had aggressive unemployment since the 2008 Financial Crisis, yet the government had hidden the true numbers until just this year. For some reason, this video’s narrator ‘won’t go there’, though.
No hazard pay for essential employees.
@Fluffy Bunny The hypocritical nature of this whole ordeal has singlehandedly convinced me that it's a fraud.
@K M it's a global pandemic you troll. So bad that they had to shut down an entire global economy. What are you a trump supporter?
Amazon is always hiring!!!!
Thanks Jack
We still haven't hit the second wave of the pandemic or the full brunt of the eviction and foreclosure "housing apocalypse." So no, there will be no true recovery this year, if ever.
Hi, disabled person here, working full time during this crisis with benefits. Categorizing all disabled people as non working is discriminatory. Since you are so much into stats, check the employment numbers for disabled folk before lumping everybody as disabled non working.
Thank you!
There were 25 million before virus and 43 million unemployed during virus during virus that is 73 million. Think People.
The USA has had marshal law for 3 months.
We have had enough of their illegal indefinite house arrest without due process, all because of a purported pandemic with a death rate equal to the common flu.
Vote against all incumbents and all career politicians, because none have earned reelection.
*"A people that elect corrupt politicians, impostors, thieves, and traitors are not victims, but accomplices." -- George Orwell*
The other side of the situation hasn't been so great either...
I walked away from a six figure income job 5 years ago to retire...haven't looked back.
I'm sure that is helpful to many reading this..
It's past time to redefine "unemployed," and how it applies to our real lives, to unemployment and Social Security benefits and taxes, unless we rather not know the truth about the greatest market of the greatest nation ever and keep things as they are.
What’s really crazy is that our politicians are doing this to us im guessing most of us have jobs to go to but our mayors and governors are preventing it
Shaddy. Very shaddy, indeed.
Can you do a video on buy backs of American comoanies in the stock market?
Good analysis however one major factor you did not mention is businesses that closed and will never reopen. Based on that fact a "V" shaped recovery is mathematically impossible!
In my opinion, the classic 9 to 5 job is simply no longer possible in a world where repeated tasks are automated. We need to realize that the gig economy, freelance work and independent business are the future.
If deflation happens it will be very short. Then I expect super inflation. 40% of all jobs were part time or made up jobs
When enough people have no income, many will go back to barter systems to get by. Working for room and board will become a thing again.
And I did with employment data daily, this is not a recovery at all. We are headed for a serious depression
The unemployment rate using the original equation is about 35%. That also doesn't include underemployment. The equation was changed over the decades to hide unemployment as the rate increased. Also, look at labor force participation rate. It is around 60% and that is just people of working age considered part of the labor force. If you add in all the people over 65 I'm sure you will have less than half of the adult population working.
There's a difference between real and official unemployment. Official unemployment may be higher now but real unemployment was higher in 2009-2011!!!
No it was not. This is the worst unemployment ever, including the Great Depression.
Good stuff
There never was a lock in Canada,...every week...thousands of people arrived every week, not screened on arrival..while the US- Canadian Border was down....from the PRC.
R PM well we cannot restrict the movements of our Chinese overlords now can we?
You have to do a COVID-19 follow-up
Meh, it't only about USA. By the title I'd expected a video about the, you know, global crisis.
You should do a video about how many people are actually getting paid for unemployment and how many are not, even though they applied and got approved . I'm in California and I found that unpaid weeks pending is happening in all states. Months of unpaid pending unemployment! That is fucking ridiculous! The gov is lying about how much unemployment have been paid. Honestly I think this is being done purposely.
Employment in the us was inflated anyway. Tons of unnecessary workers just for the sake of jobs. I once paid attention to MTA workers fixing something on a subway platform. 7/10 were just sitting around on their phones or talking.
This is a common complaint but sometimes based on misunderstanding. I have worked with road crews and I can tell you something: usually there are 1 or 2 parts of the job that really need 10 people, but the rest only needs 3. There is inefficiency but the other 7 are not simply lazy. They will all be working like madmen when the wet cement shows up.
John Williams of Shadow Stats said the unemployment rate is approx 50%.
Please read Progress Dollars from the Production Parabola.
Couldn't apply for unemployment. And we don't bring in enough to pay the mortgage. Going to wind up loosing our home.
Anita C. Sorry...wish you the best.