strength in numbers is sneaky in A&A. Dont think of it as two ones vs a three. Think of it in terms of rolls to win. The tank needs two 3s to win and the attackers need only a single 1. hitting two threes in two rolls is 25% odds. On the first roll alone where the attackers a guarranteed both rolls the odds of getting the hit is 33%. Obviously depending how it plays out there will determine odds down the road but edge is considerably to the attackers despite intuition screaming otherwise. When i play games i love to have the notepad and i do quick scratch math for fights. count up both qty of units and attack value. with close attack values numbers should win, and if you don't have the numbers you better have a big advantage in attack power to make up for it.
About 50 inf vs 34: generally you need a numerical superiority of about SQRT(2) to beat units of half your attack for even odds. This rule also works to predict 2 inf vs 1 tank: the two inf have better odds because 2 > SQRT(3)
Wow, I missed so many of them. I guess that is because I always bring in more than enough to win a battle rather than playing the game with the odds deciding it.
I took your comment about "pausing the video" as a challenge....tried to answer on-the-fly without pausing, got 14 correct. The ones with more units were quite hard to do that way! Good practice though...keep the great content flowing!
Those last 3 really got me, well at least I made Captain but in the Star Trek universe they get All the Glory anyway and so.... Fetch me my Hot Earl grey tea on the Double, MAKE IT SO!!!
15 I'll take it. grumpy missed the last one haha. Totally forgot to figure the second hit of the battleships into my headmath and gave it to the subs for the sneak attack with very close units/attackpower of both sides not accounting for the second hit.
You essentially need 4 rolls at 50% chance per roll to score two hits. Whereas with infantry you would need 6 rolls at 17% chance per roll to score a hit. Even if you score your hit before the tank scores his 2nd, the tank is defending and still has a 50% chance to score that final hit, and therefore the territory is successfully defended. So with 2 infantry you would need 3 rounds to get 6 rolls, but by 2nd round the tank should score a hit. Which means your 3rd round would be with only one die. Meaning statistically you would have 4 rolls by the time the tank scores a hit and you need 2 more rounds with 1 infantry to reach that 6 whereas the tank would score a hit in those two rounds as well.
@@anakinskywalker5658 interesting! I can't really wrap my head around how 2 attacking inf are better off than a tank.. I guess it all comes down to what happens in that first round of combat. Despite what the odds say I don't think I'll ever try attacking a tank with just 2 inf!
@@CorporalClegg The infantry have to hit only once to win or draw and start with 2 albeit individually much worse chances. The tank has to hit twice, and only has 1 chance at the start. It's only 53% for the infantry to win, 38% for the tank to win (not bad for a unit that's supposed to have infantry of its own with it) and 9% for a draw. You're right about not wanting to make that attack - unless you're already winning and you can risk 2 inf in an area where there's nothing else to help them, for a chance to speed something up.
General. Never played before. Couldn’t have done it without your videos on: cruisers for losers, best sea unit, and artillery or tanks. Last one fooled me
Okay Battle 11 as well. Attacker gets 1 hit in round 1 and defender gets 2 hits. Down to 4 infantry vs 1 tank 2 bombers. You have a 66.7% chance to score 1 hit with the infantry round 2. With about a 183.3% chance to score a hit with your tank (50%) and bombers 2x (66.7%). You statistically have a better shot at scoring 2 hits as the defender than the attacker has at one hit. Say we give the benefit of the doubt to the attacker with just one hit a piece. It’s 3 infantry against two bombers. 3 Infantry have a 50% chance to score a hit, whereas the 2 bombers have a 133.3% to score a hit. We give the attacker the benefit again and it’s 1 hit a piece. 2 infantry have a 33.3% chance to score one hit and the bomber has a 66.7% chance to score a hit. Combined with the 133.3% from last round we’ll say the bomber gets his one hit this round, but the infantry won’t. Now it’s 1 infantry vs 1 bomber. Once again even if the infantry who has a 17% chance to score a hit actually does. The bomber still has a 66.7% chance to score a hit and still successfully defend the territory.
You made me realise that I made a slight mistake for that battle. The odds calculator assumes the defender wants to keep the bombers so takes the tanks out first. If the bombers are selected as first casualties then the battle does slightly favour the defender. Odds still aren't great though at roughly 45% and 50% odds for the attacker and defender respectively
15/20, better call up the British Army and tell them this Second Lieutenant is in need of a promotion ;) In all seriousness to me this shows how vital it is to have numerical superiority. Getting more low opportunities to attack is far more useful it seems.
14 correct - Lt. Colonel. That's better than I expected considering I've only played one full game of Classic A&A, one full game of A&A 1941, and about five rounds of A&A 1942 2nd ed. against actual people, although I have played a handful of 1941 and Classic games on AAA.
My confidence in the odds generator was lessened by the fact that several didn't add up to 100%. I get that 98-99% could be rounding, but there was a 91%, two 94%, etc. Odds for a binary choice doesn't work that way.
Here again. These videos are the most informative on A&A on CZcams. A&A videos don't get a ton of views in general, but these are your most popular, and there is a reason. Have you ever considered focusing on videos of this style? I do what I can to make your videos as many views as I can. I like the "Pink Floyd" reference in your name
Hey Justin! I do have more informative videos planned and I'll definitely present them in this style. They're really fun to make. Thanks for the feedback and for sharing my channel! Pink Floyd forever
17 points here, I also overestimated the three AA guns. Not their damage, but I thought the attacker being forced to lose planes early would tip it. I kept reminding myself the importance of hit points over a few extra dice pips and it helped in most battles, but I really fell through in battles 4 and 5.
Love it- though my brain can no longer process OOB stats lol... I would your input on who would win using BBR stats 😎... maybe sometime when you get a bored moment.
Fist of all, Awesome video tons of fun. Having said that, according to your answers I got 14 right, but you have 3 incorrect answers which really would give me 17. Scenarios 4, 11 and 17 should be defender victories. It looks like you aren’t taking casualties ideally for the defender. In scenarios 4 and 17 you need to take the aa guns as casualties first and the defenders will win (on average). In scenario 11 if you take the bombers first then the defenders will also win (on average). Taking aa guns first is typically a no brainer, especially if victory is not assured. Not sure why all the simulators out there seem to want to take it last or second to last. Likely a relic of the past when aa guns couldn’t be taken as casualties. I know taking bombers first sounds like a bad idea but if the choice is to lose those or everything better to just lose the bombers.
You're absolutely right. I think the odds calculator selects more expensive units last, and I didn't think to input a casualty order. I'll definitely correct that if I make another one. Thanks for playing!
Late to the party, but #19 also looks like a defender victory if AA were taken as casualties first. And #10 looks like a virtual tie at ~39% to ~39% if the carrier is lost before fighters.
The test was very interesting. I only failed on battles 4, 5, 17 and 18. So Brigadier General here 😄. No surprise, because I consider myself a veteran player that started back in the 1990s with MB or Classic Axis & Allies. My favorite is still a beefed up Anniversary Edition with tons of additional House Rules. Global 1940 has a great map, but if I ever get my hand on the boards, I will start the game with a 1941 setup. Starting in 1940 has so many drawbacks and it simply takes too much time for any gaming buddy that I know. The outcome of battle 18 with 50 against 34 infantry surprised me the most, because 68 defending points (34 x 2) should score 11 hits in the first round alone. But that obviously doesn't even out the diminishing numbers of the defender, who should lose 8 units on Round 1.
Great score! Odds can be pretty crazy! I love Anniversary too. Map is a beautiful size and the addition of Italy and China is awesome. I do feel it needs some house rules though as I find the game unbalanced. Just curious, have you put together a rulebook for you game group? Always enjoy checking out peoples custom games
@@CorporalClegg I do have a sheet with rule changes for OOB units, additional units and political rules - unfortunately only in German as I am located in Munich. If you are really interested I can give DeepL a shot and then fix any translation errors. It's Christmas, after all 😉.
@@christophneuschaeffer7489 thanks man! I'd love to check them out. And don't worry too much.. I can actually speak and read German semi-fluently, although I'd probably struggle with some of the terminology here. Send it over to me. My email can be found in the About tab on my channel. Thanks again!!
11/20 correct, thanks for showing me that my method of calculating odds doesn't work. That being said, now I do wanna know if anyone's got a way of calculating odds with pen and paper that's accurate (cause I don't see what I'm doing wrong in my calculations)
Only got 8 right. Im used to determining My atttack chances using first hit probabilities.inflicting most of the casualties round 1 and 2 then hoping that nothing goes wrong. Also used to calculating victories based on economics as much as actual outcome. need to practice reading actual odds.
Right on 16. Missed 5. (55%), 9. (54%) and 16. (52%) along the video speed and the wrongly calculated 19. For those 3 last battles (19. included) I did use easy pen and paper hits calculation for a 1-2 minute total battle calculation. All 3 actually calculated were right. That large no 19 battle definitely didn't include taking AA guns as first casualties for the defender thus losing 3 infantry more in first round and thus skewing the victory into attacker. A hint: if the online calculator doesn't give you an option of taking the AA guns out first, I suggest you put bombers into defense instead of AA guns since they least skew into defense WHILE making a casualty hit list (MORE IMPORTANT). If you'd recalculate, even with only 1 bomber added (let alone 3 for 3 AA guns) to the defender, the defender equalizes the odds into a draw, while with 2 bombers on the take hit list the defender wins. If anyone is interested in actual pen and paper calculation, it's below for the battle no 19, 5 rounds of battle after round 0 anti air: R0 (anti air) 3 AA guns shoot 9 / 6 = 1,5 hit, for bad defender luck round to 1 A fighter down, 5 attacking fighters enter battle R1 4+22+22+33+15+12 = 108 / 6 = 18 hits (3 AA + 15 inf, D remaining 10 inf) 50+42+16 = 108 / 6 = 18 hits (15 inf + 3 art, A remaining 0 inf 8 art) R2 16+33+15+12 = 76 / 6 = 13 hits (10 inf + 3 tanks, D remaining 0 inf 11 tanks) 20+42+16 = 78 / 6 = 13 hits (8 art + 5 tanks, A remaining 0 art 6 tanks) R3 18+15+12 = 45 / 6 = 8 hits (8 tanks, D remaining 3 tanks) 33+16 = 49 / 6 = 8 hits (6 tanks + 2 fighters, A remaining 3 fighters) R4 9+12 = 18 / 6 = 3 hits (3 tanks, D remaining 0 tanks) 9+16 = 25 / 6 = 4 hits (3 fighters + 1 bomber, A remaining 2 bombers) R5 8 / 6 = 1 hit (1-2 fighter, D remaining 2-3 fighters) 16 / 6 > 2 hits (A remaining 0 bombers) This without the need of the attacker to take the territory (leaving one tank on round 3 losses into round 4 and 5) and hard luck on defender AA rolls. The outcome is actually seen by round 2 hit results: in round 1 both A and D hit for 108 score, while in round 2 already A hits for 76 while D for 78. This gap increases further on (45/49, 18/25, 8/16) into the 2 unit difference at the end. You don't need to pen and pencil calculate all the way to know defender wins. EDIT: since this is a very close battle, the first round any player rolls below average whilst the other rolls above, the battle definitively skews into the luckier player side. This said, it is DEFINITELY NOT an ATTACK which an attacking player should try (along his base average loss) as he would place a lot of his offense into full RNG. Another point is that even with winning the battle any counterattack would definitely wipe his remains. This is, by all, a Hail Mary attack on a victory city or capital, when war loss is imminent if not done at this latest time. Also, it's a great 1-2 punch to clear the territory for your ally.
Great fun - thanks Corporal Clegg. I only got 7 right. Pretty pathetic 🤣. I did have a question though - on some of them the total percentage of the 2 sides adds up to quite a bit less than 100%. Any explanation of why that is?
I would love to see how badly I would score! And yes, on some of the battles there's a good chance that both sides will wipe eachother out resulting in a draw. The percentages you see are that sides chance to win. Glad you enjoyed it Sergeant Todd
Are the defender casualties based on IPC value or defence value? There were a couple of battles with defending bombers that I feel should have better odds. Battle 11 specifically. When I do my "math" the defenders have a slim lead when choosing bombers first. I could be wrong though. Battle 4 is actually a slim lead for the defenders as long as the AAA is chosen as the first casualty, instead of by IPC value, which is what I feel the majority of players will do. Same with 17. 19 is still a heavy win for the attackers even if the defenders choose AAA as casualties first. I love all of your analysis videos!
14 right ,little kernel here. I'm curious about submarine 1st strike casualties not returning fire if no destroyers present, a damage hit can still be a submarine 1st strike hit, would that mean if a battleship or aircraft carrier takes damage from a submarine 1st strike they can't returned fire..or not sunk but still having taken a submarine 1st strike ? I like the AA as a casualty option, is this up to 3 shots per AA gun ? 3 shots each round of combat or just the 1st round ? I've been trying to work out anti air artillery that hit mechanized units on a 2 and aircraft on a 1, romell was crafty with his 88mm's and I don't think he was the only commander using dual purpose high velocity artillery, but perhaps he was the first, a technology development perhaps. I love playing free technology for everyone, it's not rolling to see if you get but rather what you get, lots of technology used but played down a bit, no automatic upgrades it must all be built except for long range which is not in effect until the noncombat phase so as not to ruin without fair warning
A battleship/ carrier can absorb a surprise strike and return fire no problem. AA guns can fire UP TO 3 shots each but only ever one shot per enemy air unit. I did a video on AA guns you might be interested in. One of the many reasons I love this game is because of how open it is to house rules 😁 Congrats on 14 points! Thanks for the comment
I challenge your odds for battle #10…i get an attacker win as you did but with ~68% odds not 55%. I have cross referenced a handful of the 20 battles and that is the only one that is off
I cant believe two infantry beats a tank
strength in numbers is sneaky in A&A. Dont think of it as two ones vs a three. Think of it in terms of rolls to win. The tank needs two 3s to win and the attackers need only a single 1. hitting two threes in two rolls is 25% odds. On the first roll alone where the attackers a guarranteed both rolls the odds of getting the hit is 33%. Obviously depending how it plays out there will determine odds down the road but edge is considerably to the attackers despite intuition screaming otherwise. When i play games i love to have the notepad and i do quick scratch math for fights. count up both qty of units and attack value. with close attack values numbers should win, and if you don't have the numbers you better have a big advantage in attack power to make up for it.
It’s okay! Fractions don’t come easy for all of us!
Can you make more of these to continue testing us please, it was really fun
I'll no doubt make a part 2 at some point! Got a few other projects I'd like to finish first though. Glad you enjoyed it!
About 50 inf vs 34: generally you need a numerical superiority of about SQRT(2) to beat units of half your attack for even odds. This rule also works to predict 2 inf vs 1 tank: the two inf have better odds because 2 > SQRT(3)
Wow, I missed so many of them. I guess that is because I always bring in more than enough to win a battle rather than playing the game with the odds deciding it.
Same here. I know my dice rolling skills. So I have to overcome with larger numbers. LOL
I took your comment about "pausing the video" as a challenge....tried to answer on-the-fly without pausing, got 14 correct. The ones with more units were quite hard to do that way! Good practice though...keep the great content flowing!
Nice going, Warden! I had a feeling you'd score highly - to get 14 without pausing is impressive
Cheers buddy
I got 12 without pausing I missed two of the rediculous ones and the rest were relatively close affairs.
Those last 3 really got me, well at least I made Captain but in the Star Trek universe they get All the Glory anyway and so.... Fetch me my Hot Earl grey tea on the Double, MAKE IT SO!!!
9! I missed the last 3 crazy! Loved this.
That was a really fun exercise. Thanks, dude.
15 I'll take it. grumpy missed the last one haha. Totally forgot to figure the second hit of the battleships into my headmath and gave it to the subs for the sneak attack with very close units/attackpower of both sides not accounting for the second hit.
I would never ever take two infantry to attack one tank. I’m actually curious how the odds are that good for the infantry.
You essentially need 4 rolls at 50% chance per roll to score two hits. Whereas with infantry you would need 6 rolls at 17% chance per roll to score a hit. Even if you score your hit before the tank scores his 2nd, the tank is defending and still has a 50% chance to score that final hit, and therefore the territory is successfully defended. So with 2 infantry you would need 3 rounds to get 6 rolls, but by 2nd round the tank should score a hit. Which means your 3rd round would be with only one die. Meaning statistically you would have 4 rolls by the time the tank scores a hit and you need 2 more rounds with 1 infantry to reach that 6 whereas the tank would score a hit in those two rounds as well.
@@anakinskywalker5658 interesting! I can't really wrap my head around how 2 attacking inf are better off than a tank.. I guess it all comes down to what happens in that first round of combat.
Despite what the odds say I don't think I'll ever try attacking a tank with just 2 inf!
@@CorporalClegg The infantry have to hit only once to win or draw and start with 2 albeit individually much worse chances. The tank has to hit twice, and only has 1 chance at the start.
It's only 53% for the infantry to win, 38% for the tank to win (not bad for a unit that's supposed to have infantry of its own with it) and 9% for a draw.
You're right about not wanting to make that attack - unless you're already winning and you can risk 2 inf in an area where there's nothing else to help them, for a chance to speed something up.
Well nobody ever attacks with just a 55% of winning normally (exceptional stakes aside).
I didn’t realize how well infantry can do in the attack role. That alone had me miss about half my wrong answers. Good to know going forward.
Ay 17! Love G40
Right at 14 and just started playing.
10of20! Great video and channel!
16 and I never play, just watch some video's. I've learned alot from your channel.
That's great to hear! Thanks for watching
General. Never played before. Couldn’t have done it without your videos on: cruisers for losers, best sea unit, and artillery or tanks.
Last one fooled me
You beat me to it! Excellent!
Nice video. It's hard to predict what the outcome will be past one round of rolling.
Okay Battle 11 as well. Attacker gets 1 hit in round 1 and defender gets 2 hits. Down to 4 infantry vs 1 tank 2 bombers. You have a 66.7% chance to score 1 hit with the infantry round 2. With about a 183.3% chance to score a hit with your tank (50%) and bombers 2x (66.7%). You statistically have a better shot at scoring 2 hits as the defender than the attacker has at one hit. Say we give the benefit of the doubt to the attacker with just one hit a piece. It’s 3 infantry against two bombers. 3 Infantry have a 50% chance to score a hit, whereas the 2 bombers have a 133.3% to score a hit. We give the attacker the benefit again and it’s 1 hit a piece. 2 infantry have a 33.3% chance to score one hit and the bomber has a 66.7% chance to score a hit. Combined with the 133.3% from last round we’ll say the bomber gets his one hit this round, but the infantry won’t. Now it’s 1 infantry vs 1 bomber. Once again even if the infantry who has a 17% chance to score a hit actually does. The bomber still has a 66.7% chance to score a hit and still successfully defend the territory.
You made me realise that I made a slight mistake for that battle. The odds calculator assumes the defender wants to keep the bombers so takes the tanks out first. If the bombers are selected as first casualties then the battle does slightly favour the defender. Odds still aren't great though at roughly 45% and 50% odds for the attacker and defender respectively
12. A lowly Captain.
2 lessons: 'Be the attacker' & 'many small units is better than few strong units.'
15/20, better call up the British Army and tell them this Second Lieutenant is in need of a promotion ;)
In all seriousness to me this shows how vital it is to have numerical superiority. Getting more low opportunities to attack is far more useful it seems.
2nd Lieutenant ... that was tough! Very cool video, thanks!
You're welcome buddy!
2nd Lieutenant, at least I made Officer. But based on how bad I did, I'd probably get fragged by my own troops on our first patrol. 😆
for being fairly new i didnt expect to get 13! good video my man
1st Lt, some of the bigger battle surprised me
Captain here.
I had to pause the video a couple times, but I'll say I did pretty well getting at least half right.
14 correct - Lt. Colonel. That's better than I expected considering I've only played one full game of Classic A&A, one full game of A&A 1941, and about five rounds of A&A 1942 2nd ed. against actual people, although I have played a handful of 1941 and Classic games on AAA.
Lieutenant colonel. Nice idea for a video!
I am Happy with my Brigadier General Status!
My incorrect guesses were questions 5, 16, 17, and 19.
Good stuff! I am happy to be a colonel with 15 correct answers :-) I failed the middle ones (9, 10, 11) and 16 + 18. I love infantry and destroyers!
My confidence in the odds generator was lessened by the fact that several didn't add up to 100%. I get that 98-99% could be rounding, but there was a 91%, two 94%, etc. Odds for a binary choice doesn't work that way.
The difference is the chance that the battle will end in a draw. Should have clarified his in the vid, my bad
Ah. Gotcha. Thanks for the reply! @@CorporalClegg
Captain. Last 3 should be a colonel.... lol
If anyone Admits to making the Cheater Rank, are they Really a Cheater?!?🤔
No, they're just an honest liar.
...Wait what? 🤯
A Major and I haven’t played in years!
Colonel only played three times since the original release
I'm proud of my 19! I admittedly did pause on several and think about it
I got Sargent major. This was a super cool video thanks.
Here again. These videos are the most informative on A&A on CZcams. A&A videos don't get a ton of views in general, but these are your most popular, and there is a reason. Have you ever considered focusing on videos of this style? I do what I can to make your videos as many views as I can. I like the "Pink Floyd" reference in your name
Hey Justin! I do have more informative videos planned and I'll definitely present them in this style. They're really fun to make. Thanks for the feedback and for sharing my channel! Pink Floyd forever
Looks like I’m Brigadier General. Not bad considering that since I’m a long time player, I made a few risky decisions in some of my games.
I got 11 right, some of those were pretty surprising.
I got 9 right. I'm a sergeant major. Embaressing 😅
No wonder you Lost your last CZcams game!!!😏🤡👅
No worries Enderman! I doubt I'd have achieved anything higher myself, some of these were tough!
Aye me to
I only got 8, but in my experience with infantry only attacks, i either win in the first round 15% or lose with 0 hits.
''If you got more than 15, congratulation...''
Me, having 15 correct and answers: 😠
13, good enough for me
13 major- pretty surprised on that one since I've only ever played 41 a few times
18, overestimated the three as guns and underestimated how powerful it is to be able to take 20 hits without loosing any fighting capability.
17 points here, I also overestimated the three AA guns. Not their damage, but I thought the attacker being forced to lose planes early would tip it.
I kept reminding myself the importance of hit points over a few extra dice pips and it helped in most battles, but I really fell through in battles 4 and 5.
Love it- though my brain can no longer process OOB stats lol... I would your input on who would win using BBR stats 😎... maybe sometime when you get a bored moment.
Cheers Sired. I'll look into it
14 out of 20. Missed all of the last three!
Fist of all, Awesome video tons of fun.
Having said that, according to your answers I got 14 right, but you have 3 incorrect answers which really would give me 17.
Scenarios 4, 11 and 17 should be defender victories. It looks like you aren’t taking casualties ideally for the defender. In scenarios 4 and 17 you need to take the aa guns as casualties first and the defenders will win (on average). In scenario 11 if you take the bombers first then the defenders will also win (on average).
Taking aa guns first is typically a no brainer, especially if victory is not assured. Not sure why all the simulators out there seem to want to take it last or second to last. Likely a relic of the past when aa guns couldn’t be taken as casualties.
I know taking bombers first sounds like a bad idea but if the choice is to lose those or everything better to just lose the bombers.
You're absolutely right. I think the odds calculator selects more expensive units last, and I didn't think to input a casualty order. I'll definitely correct that if I make another one. Thanks for playing!
Ah! Thanks for that. I got all three of those wrong & was very surprised by it
Late to the party, but #19 also looks like a defender victory if AA were taken as casualties first.
And #10 looks like a virtual tie at ~39% to ~39% if the carrier is lost before fighters.
love ur vids i have won many more games because of this
Well I'm only a first lieutenant. But to be fair I've only ever played 1 game of A&A
Lieutenant Colonel
Im too embarrassed to say. Lol
Love this video nice job!
Cheers buddy!
I'm sure I'd feel the same way about my score...!
The A&A calculator does not work anymore...
The test was very interesting. I only failed on battles 4, 5, 17 and 18. So Brigadier General here 😄. No surprise, because I consider myself a veteran player that started back in the 1990s with MB or Classic Axis & Allies. My favorite is still a beefed up Anniversary Edition with tons of additional House Rules. Global 1940 has a great map, but if I ever get my hand on the boards, I will start the game with a 1941 setup. Starting in 1940 has so many drawbacks and it simply takes too much time for any gaming buddy that I know.
The outcome of battle 18 with 50 against 34 infantry surprised me the most, because 68 defending points (34 x 2) should score 11 hits in the first round alone. But that obviously doesn't even out the diminishing numbers of the defender, who should lose 8 units on Round 1.
Great score! Odds can be pretty crazy!
I love Anniversary too. Map is a beautiful size and the addition of Italy and China is awesome. I do feel it needs some house rules though as I find the game unbalanced. Just curious, have you put together a rulebook for you game group? Always enjoy checking out peoples custom games
@@CorporalClegg I do have a sheet with rule changes for OOB units, additional units and political rules - unfortunately only in German as I am located in Munich. If you are really interested I can give DeepL a shot and then fix any translation errors. It's Christmas, after all 😉.
@@christophneuschaeffer7489 thanks man! I'd love to check them out. And don't worry too much.. I can actually speak and read German semi-fluently, although I'd probably struggle with some of the terminology here. Send it over to me. My email can be found in the About tab on my channel. Thanks again!!
11/20 correct, thanks for showing me that my method of calculating odds doesn't work.
That being said, now I do wanna know if anyone's got a way of calculating odds with pen and paper that's accurate (cause I don't see what I'm doing wrong in my calculations)
Only got 8 right. Im used to determining My atttack chances using first hit probabilities.inflicting most of the casualties round 1 and 2 then hoping that nothing goes wrong. Also used to calculating victories based on economics as much as actual outcome. need to practice reading actual odds.
I hear you buddy, I'm exactly the same and I know I would have scored poorly in this test! Some of these really surprised me
Looks like I'm a Major, pretty happy with that given how new I am to this
Right on 16. Missed 5. (55%), 9. (54%) and 16. (52%) along the video speed and the wrongly calculated 19.
For those 3 last battles (19. included) I did use easy pen and paper hits calculation for a 1-2 minute total battle calculation. All 3 actually calculated were right.
That large no 19 battle definitely didn't include taking AA guns as first casualties for the defender thus losing 3 infantry more in first round and thus skewing the victory into attacker.
A hint: if the online calculator doesn't give you an option of taking the AA guns out first, I suggest you put bombers into defense instead of AA guns since they least skew into defense WHILE making a casualty hit list (MORE IMPORTANT). If you'd recalculate, even with only 1 bomber added (let alone 3 for 3 AA guns) to the defender, the defender equalizes the odds into a draw, while with 2 bombers on the take hit list the defender wins.
If anyone is interested in actual pen and paper calculation, it's below for the battle no 19, 5 rounds of battle after round 0 anti air:
R0 (anti air)
3 AA guns shoot 9 / 6 = 1,5 hit, for bad defender luck round to 1 A fighter down, 5 attacking fighters enter battle
R1
4+22+22+33+15+12 = 108 / 6 = 18 hits (3 AA + 15 inf, D remaining 10 inf)
50+42+16 = 108 / 6 = 18 hits (15 inf + 3 art, A remaining 0 inf 8 art)
R2
16+33+15+12 = 76 / 6 = 13 hits (10 inf + 3 tanks, D remaining 0 inf 11 tanks)
20+42+16 = 78 / 6 = 13 hits (8 art + 5 tanks, A remaining 0 art 6 tanks)
R3
18+15+12 = 45 / 6 = 8 hits (8 tanks, D remaining 3 tanks)
33+16 = 49 / 6 = 8 hits (6 tanks + 2 fighters, A remaining 3 fighters)
R4
9+12 = 18 / 6 = 3 hits (3 tanks, D remaining 0 tanks)
9+16 = 25 / 6 = 4 hits (3 fighters + 1 bomber, A remaining 2 bombers)
R5
8 / 6 = 1 hit (1-2 fighter, D remaining 2-3 fighters)
16 / 6 > 2 hits (A remaining 0 bombers)
This without the need of the attacker to take the territory (leaving one tank on round 3 losses into round 4 and 5) and hard luck on defender AA rolls.
The outcome is actually seen by round 2 hit results: in round 1 both A and D hit for 108 score, while in round 2 already A hits for 76 while D for 78. This gap increases further on (45/49, 18/25, 8/16) into the 2 unit difference at the end. You don't need to pen and pencil calculate all the way to know defender wins.
EDIT: since this is a very close battle, the first round any player rolls below average whilst the other rolls above, the battle definitively skews into the luckier player side. This said, it is DEFINITELY NOT an ATTACK which an attacking player should try (along his base average loss) as he would place a lot of his offense into full RNG. Another point is that even with winning the battle any counterattack would definitely wipe his remains.
This is, by all, a Hail Mary attack on a victory city or capital, when war loss is imminent if not done at this latest time. Also, it's a great 1-2 punch to clear the territory for your ally.
2 lieutenant
Great fun - thanks Corporal Clegg. I only got 7 right. Pretty pathetic 🤣. I did have a question though - on some of them the total percentage of the 2 sides adds up to quite a bit less than 100%. Any explanation of why that is?
I would love to see how badly I would score!
And yes, on some of the battles there's a good chance that both sides will wipe eachother out resulting in a draw. The percentages you see are that sides chance to win.
Glad you enjoyed it Sergeant Todd
Considering you got wrong 4, 11, 17, 19 my score goes up to 16/20
Brigadier General here :)
Very nicely done!
Man, i only got captain
Are the defender casualties based on IPC value or defence value? There were a couple of battles with defending bombers that I feel should have better odds.
Battle 11 specifically. When I do my "math" the defenders have a slim lead when choosing bombers first. I could be wrong though.
Battle 4 is actually a slim lead for the defenders as long as the AAA is chosen as the first casualty, instead of by IPC value, which is what I feel the majority of players will do.
Same with 17.
19 is still a heavy win for the attackers even if the defenders choose AAA as casualties first.
I love all of your analysis videos!
I got sergeant major
I only really play the original revised edition and I was still able to get a 14 lol.
10/20, I'm barely a commissioned officer 🤭
Think I did pretty well for someone who has never played Axis and Allies against human opponents.
16 right :) fun game
11/20. Thought I'd do better, lol. Didn't get a single "big battle right" - concerning.
All that being said I scored 15/20 and will argue should’ve been 17/20.
i missed: 10, 19, 20 ... Tough one to call on 10 .. and those monster numbers for 19 + 20 are crazy ...
Great job Pagan! If you only missed 3 that would make you Major General, and our top scorer!
I liked your video .. I WAS doing a similar one .. so my accuracy is based on recent practice ..
Go ahead with it! I'd love to try one of these myself
First Lieutenant here
14 right ,little kernel here. I'm curious about submarine 1st strike casualties not returning fire if no destroyers present, a damage hit can still be a submarine 1st strike hit, would that mean if a battleship or aircraft carrier takes damage from a submarine 1st strike they can't returned fire..or not sunk but still having taken a submarine 1st strike ?
I like the AA as a casualty option, is this up to 3 shots per AA gun ? 3 shots each round of combat or just the 1st round ? I've been trying to work out anti air artillery that hit mechanized units on a 2 and aircraft on a 1, romell was crafty with his 88mm's and I don't think he was the only commander using dual purpose high velocity artillery, but perhaps he was the first, a technology development perhaps. I love playing free technology for everyone, it's not rolling to see if you get but rather what you get, lots of technology used but played down a bit, no automatic upgrades it must all be built except for long range which is not in effect until the noncombat phase so as not to ruin without fair warning
A battleship/ carrier can absorb a surprise strike and return fire no problem.
AA guns can fire UP TO 3 shots each but only ever one shot per enemy air unit. I did a video on AA guns you might be interested in.
One of the many reasons I love this game is because of how open it is to house rules 😁
Congrats on 14 points! Thanks for the comment
I challenge your odds for battle #10…i get an attacker win as you did but with ~68% odds not 55%. I have cross referenced a handful of the 20 battles and that is the only one that is off
Thanks man! I realised one or two are off because of how the calculator works, e.g assuming you want to take a defending bomber as last casualty..
Those are exactly the points for that specific battle that make it tricky.
@@joeldepaolis3832 one day I'll make 20 more battle scenarios and will make sure they're all correct 😁
Got 10.
Captain, not bad, I'll take it. How would the % change in battle 20 if you add a destroyer to both sides?
Wow nice video, guess I know why I lose so many games lol I got 11 right some where really surprising
I Barely got more than you did Lieutenant!!!
Not bad LT!
By the odds, random guesses will get you 10/20, Second Lieuenant. Anyone who scored below that has terrible luck and should stick to Low Luck A&A.
I got the last 5 wrong, but I still finished as a first lieutenant
Not bad at all man!
Major
16 correct
I got 19 it was really fun
Got 2nd lieutenant despite me never playing this game
got a major
@@breakmystupidniconicokneec3353 Nice
I got 15 out of 17. Last three don't count because I'm not Rainman.
That's a funny way of saying you got the last 3 wrong! 😂
Either way, 15 is a great score. Well done!
the dice always screw me over, l would not win with 2 lnfantry against 1 tank😂
I'm with you! Sometimes I'm convinced the odds calculator is drunk. There's no way I'd stand a chance either
I got 14 and I was dman bear close to making it to the top
I thought I would do much better, but only got 12...
12 I'm a Captain YAY!!!!!!!!!!!!
Maj Gen
Only 12 with the speed of the questions
Sargent Major is ok but i really thought im doing better 😮
Welp I guess I'm sergeant first class
i got second lieutenant
First lieutenant here 👋
You should do what I say I am Major so clean up my room!
I got 16 correct
Congratulations, Brigadier General! A great score
I am a Major!
i got exactly 15 correct
Only 14 damn.
I got captain😃
Hello fellow captain