Are Polls Trustworthy?
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- čas přidán 27. 07. 2024
- New polls are being released daily, answering how many Americans favor President Donald Trump or Vice President Joe Biden to win the 2020 presidential election. A majority of Americans don't believe these pre-vote polls are accurate, pointing to the misrepresentation of polling results from the 2016 presidential election. Experts contend the process of polling has become more precise and conclusive over time, but that they poll how people will vote, not how the electoral college will count votes. Find out how the polling industry makes money and how to understand polling results ahead of November 3rd by watching the video above.
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Are Polls Trustworthy?
The best poll will be on November 3rd....oh, and it’s free.
Yup only costs hundred of thousands of tax payer dollars.. haha
@@OopsFailedArt instead of the 10 million that KIllary Spent in 2016... sounds like a steal.
no, you can go to vote now .no need to wait november 3rd
@@OopsFailedArt 100's of thousands or $34.5 Billion...i
@@stephenfoster1196 haha your pick
0:17 A poll to see if polls are accurate haha
U might as well just run a census.. that's a poll . Just a poll of everyone..
Just because the Democrats are losing😂
Statistically speaking, 80% of statistics are wrong. The remaining 30% of statistics are perfectly correct every time, although 90% of statistics are dubious or shoddy at best.
@@pr0xZen wrong.. your poll is as good as how it was designed to sample and what error you expect.. no poll is full proof
. Ie.factory quality control is a poll . Impossible to qc everything.. but u can say.. based on whatever error I want I need to randomly sample z number of items before I can validate if I truly only have less than a percentage of faulty items. Things like that work. Human polls about opinion are totally different matter .. theres usually too many things to account for.
@@pr0xZen also. I should note.. you go to vegas and u see the odds at the craps or blackjack table.. which is statistics.. I don't think 80% of the time those statistics for the odds are wrong..
Pollster industry will be dead after this election, if Trump wins - Frank Lutz.
I agree with you Frank and time to look for another job.
I hope CNN chris cumo gets fired for his lies!
Short answer: No
Long answer: Ask Hillary LMAO
She said she won the popular vote by roughly what the polls were saying.
@@lewisturner5362 The purpose of polls are to predict the outcome of the election.
Guess what? It didn’t.
@@apillon99 uhh no that's not what the purpose of polls is; polls are supposed to tell you roughly what percentage of the vote each candidate is supposed to get. If you predict a candidate is going to get 60% of the vote and they win by only getting 50.1% then the poll is still inaccurate
@@filteredacapella It's not 50-50, it's 10-90.
😆😆😆
When your Legit first piece of information to see how accurate polls are is a poll about polls.
There's a poll of polls, never ever heard of it?
That's meta
Just goes to show you that these polls are a joke .
Panzer video.parler.com/7V/Zq/7VZqjiROZzmb.mp4 💥💥💥Hunter Biden's call recording! It proves that Joe Biden fully knew and participated in Hunter's series of collusion with the CCP.
It’s a poll on the public’s perception of polls, not on the true accuracy of polling. Not that hard to understand tbh
The only poll that matters is the ballot box on election day.
*CORRECT !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!*
Not when you win the popular vote but lose because of the EC
No the only that matter is the people count your vote.
@@leehyunsong7001 ok?
@@WOODSLD80 Its democracy between each state. The electoral college keeps democracy and is based on what the people in each state vote. So it stills matters, even if the popular vote goes against it.
Polls are meant to ~shape~ people’s opinions NOT reflect them
I’m not sure that’s very common- at least with the circle of folks I know. Would that really work with such a political thing anyhow?
Nah
@Aditya Ingole isn’t that what u guys said during the midterms? And it was more like a blue puddle as both houses of Congress just traded hands. Go count trump to Biden sitns
Rush Limbaugh
@Aditya Ingole which proves they're horrific because the United States isn't represented by three major cities despite the fact a large portion of people live there. The bottom line is that's not how you win an election you have to hit individual states. The strategy of just getting the most votes is about something a third grader would do
I trust Polish people more than political polls and I don't even know anyone from Poland.
Not true. I voted for Mr. Poll last Tuesday.
👍🎯🤣
Ask Hillary
Crooked Shillery Rotten Clinton
@Marie Marie do you reallt think you can blame one president for a worldwide virus? Trump can’t even do much about the virus; the governors are the ones who hold the real power. Even if he messed up on the virus he is still a lot better than that dog faced pony soldier geriatric
@@TKUA11 He forgot to implement the federal response and also destroyed the Pandemic Response Team that Obama left him.
@HorizonGaming791 Fauci has to also dance around with his words carefully, since Trump would just fire him if he directly called the guy the orange idiot that he is.
@@4nlimited3dition_4n3d You do know it was your leftist mayors and governors that killed thousands of elderly patients after sending covid patients into nursing homes. Trump let the states decide what was best for their state. I know you wish he would have become the dictator you people keep calling him and take over, but he let you destroy yourselves.
Nope, with them saying Biden leads Texas.😂🤣😭😂🤣 was all the proof I needed to confirm my suspicions.
Isnt Texas a flip state right now? I dont think it will happen but maybe right now he is in the lead.
@@faithfullyfaith199 Texas is very right leaning. Only a few areas are democratic and with Biden killing the oil industry I don't see it happening.
@@beardedrogue4282 I don't see it happening either. I just think it's going to be closer than in the past years because so many more people are voting.
0:14. A poll of a polls!!! Ha ha ha ha! :D
Think the problem went over their heads...
Only NBC can think of that.
When do these polls happen I never got polled by these so called accurate result givers
So I am.not only one
Trump 2020.
I am an Asian born American who wants to make America great again!
We will find out in 8 days...
6
5
@@itzrudy872 4
@choppa on fn 2
1
We finally see how untrustworthy the Media is.
I learned that when Bowling Green happened. No one, not one source talked about the tragedy.
the US media tells people muslims will wave rainbow flags and install transgender bathrooms in mosques. Idiot USA democrats believe it
@@barabbashaifamilitia3115 that's a straw man argument. Go away with this nonsense.
Before watching.
No.
All the results that led to Trump's Victory were within the Margin of Error
@@kerzariz8717 i remember pollsters calling that margin of error a landslide, blue wave, win for hilary
@@jordansims9162 I remember it was the Media hyping her chances up and not the actual poll. I remember Trump leading two Points a few weeks before the election. And I remember the Polls tightening a few days before the Election.
I also remember the Republican October Surprise wherein Clinton was announced to be investigated by the FBI. And I also remember the Wikileaks release of the DNC Cheating.
Are there any Scandals on Biden? The Hunter Scandal? Seems pretty benign to me, not as big as Killary's Corruption.
@@kerzariz8717 so they accurately, inaccurately predicted the election. Good on them. It seems the polls did what they do best. Guess. Pretty amazing prediction technology.
Sure but they influence voters to go vote harder or relax changing the next poll and the election outcome
"to go vote harder"
That's why polls should be ignored. Just vote for your candidate.
I don't trust anyone or anything. It's too dangerous to trust these days.
I have a lot of friends and family members in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin who say their voting for Biden when pollsters call them but all of them are voting for President Trump.
Why do they do that?
4:50 the revenues are not listed in order, but are talked about as if they are
Exactly. I was wondering how Kantar was #4. But I guess the list was in order of popularity in the US, not in order of revenue.
@@MoneyGist Worked like the 2016 election!
Doesn’t even talk about if they are trustworthy just talks about polling. Misleading title
Errr, how about the ‘is the data reliable?’ part?
I'm Indian American voting for TRUMP ...
Polls says Indian American r not voting for Rep. but it's wrong in this election more nd more Indian community and Black people r voting for Trump ..m
Short answer: No
Another one who does not know statistics.
@@ava8147 We will see November 3, 2020. If Trump wins, will the poll be considered real? Lol
@@gleitsonSalles Anybody who actually knows anything about statistics would know you can manipulate them easily.
@@SandmanFromNJ What about the 2018 midterm elections. Those were mostly right.
Trump is slightly ahead (= plenty ahead) in Ohio, that is the key poll
The answer is no. If you look at 2020 elections counts and drill down to each states, there is a definite and clear differences in votes from large city area and more rural area. If polls don’t mix up the population properly presenting the whole population, it will always result in skewed analysis
No they are not trust worthy we saw what happened GO VOTE 🗳
vote RED
Vote nothing their all Down with New Order
@@Castillobusy why I’m sorry I ain’t living another 4 years of this Biden 2020 he actually has a plan unlike Trump who all he talks about is hunter who is not running for president
@@josephsprecher9462 so you want a president in office that has a crackhead son. Who has been to rehab for his cocaine addiction. Who was kicked out of the navy due to testing positive for cocaine. If you have the right to vote for who you want but i would not vote for a man with a family like that. A man that would send all american jobs overseas. A man who cant decide whether he is going to ban fracking or not, who thinks he is entitled to the minority vote. Nah no thanks.
@@josephsprecher9462 yeah with corruption and no, I’m sick of socialism, I come from Venezuela and I have seen what the corruption looks like
What an idiotic question. A poll is neither trustworthy nor untrustworthy. They are what they are. If people can't interpret them correctly then that's not the fault of the poll. If they're poorly designed then that's the fault of the pollster. If they are "wrong" (which is to say that they predict one thing and something else happens) then that goes back to people not being able to actually understand or interpret them correctly. A poll has not only a margin of error but also typically has a statistical deviation of any predictions that come out of it. Sometimes when something is 75-25, the 25% chance comes through. In fact, it comes through about 1/4 of the time... that's an awful lot of the time.
A couple days before the 2020 Nov. election, on Conservative Talk Radio, the guest was a Republican who was running for re-election and was behind in the polls by 2 or 3 points. The host asked him if he were worried and he said he was not worried because he knew that Republicans lie to pollsters and so he knew that he was still golden if he were only behind by 2 or 3 points.
Who is to say that a lot of people who respond to polls aren't trolling to deliberately skew the numbers- just for fun?
WOW! You've created new job opportunities for trolls who haven't thought of it😂😂
Exactly
i have read this as "are poles trustworthy?"))
This all seems to assume respondents are being honest.
Vote Libertarian. Let's get it. 💪
The answer is no, I've saved you time.
much obliged
Ignore the polls. Vote.
2016 it happened, then in the UK it happened......and its the attitude of the left.
The issue is how the media and people treat right-wing voters. The hassle, the comments, the abuse and attacks, it drives them underground or simply makes them afraid to say who they support, well, until voting day.
That is why you have silent voters and you get the "how did that happen" on voting day.
The same thing happened in the UK. Labour and left-wing going on at Brexit/Tory voters, abuse and everything you can name, so in the polls, they looked like they would maybe win.
Even on the voting day, it looked like the polls had the win for Labour, but what happened was a Tory landslide, the biggest in 100 years.
This was because people just kept hush about who they want to win, some even said Labour just so they could fit in and not get hassle, the same thing is going to happen Nov 3rd.
A poll (lol) was done with Trump voters, they asked how many hide the fact that they support Trump, 13% said they did, now if that is national, that is a win right there.
Also saw a story with a guy saying there were no political signs up in his neighbourhood (mixed race) then one morning he said "screw this" and put a Trump sign up, days later there were dozens of signs and flags lol they were all just hiding the fact.
They skipped everything people are interested in. We want to know how publishing a poll affects voting. If the poll, for example, says candidate A is winning by 9% in a State does that do more to get more votes out for candidate B or the candidate A?
Does doubt in the accuracy of polls change that dynamic, and if so who does that favor?
How are these patterns affected by larger or smaller gaps?
How many polls are never reported to the public? Should they be required to?
How can we stop insincere polling companies just designed to sway voters rather than really getting their untainted opinion? Can we accredit poling companies in some way, and make it fraud for these crooked companies to pretend they are accredited?
DON'T TRUST POLLS
A major problem with the whole discussion of statistics is the failure to distinguish between intentional and unintentional bias. I am not a statistician but have worked with quality engineers to endeavour to take unintentional bias out of sampling methods, especially those requiring human input. It is not easy. I can hear efforts in the video to reduce unintentional bias and one reference to what intentional bias may sound like. I did not hear, though I should probably listen again, any attempt to distinguish the two forms of bias. I feel that appreciating the difference is important for a consumer of polling data.
Bingo! Most of the polls over sample democratic leaning people and then point that it validates their opinion. It’s the bias of the media and universities towards the left. They hope is discourages the right to stay home as the end is a forgone conclusion
@@seestuff09 I was talking about the possible presence of unintentional bias even what is intended to be unbiased data. The subject you wish to discuss is a totally different matter. In order to start a discussion I would need to review your evidence of the oversampling you allude to. A properly-designed poll should avoid such oversampling. That is the whole purpose of designing a poll rather than just picking up a clipboard and hitting the street.
It really comes more down to a very abstract concept of probability that would have to factor in all variables (and such list would probably be very long), the polls can not only be inaccurate at times but made even more inaccurate when someone decides to mess with the representation of data to make it fit their picture more.
Plus it's hard to factor in the power of the "silent majority".
You don't have to look at the polls. Just look at the statistics of early voting. Texas has 80% of the vote that they got in 2016 already. Maine has 43% of the vote already. Other states are quickly shattering records.
Uh no of course not
So the people who make the polls had a poll to see if people believed in polls and now we must believe those polls...? Seems legit
Before a poll can be considered trustworthy, it should be shown that it is not substantially biased. In the case of presidential election polls, it should be shown that the political party distribution of those sampled (Republican/right-leaning independent, Democrat/left-leaning independent) does not deviate from that of the overall population (i.e. higher proportion of left-leaning people in the sample than that in the actual population).
4:47 It looks like CNBC made a mistake.
Kantar’s and Gartner’s revenue is $3.8B and $3.4B, respectively. Cartner is ranked third while Kantar is somehow ranked fourth?
Same with IRI and Ipsos
The notion that places with very high voter turnout are less democratic seems unfounded to me. I might be wrong, but I think France and Australia have mandatory voting, and those places are hardly less democratic than the US.
i see ppl in the comments clearly didnt watch the video lol
The 2016 polls weren't very far off. The reason is, there were too many undecided voters in 2016. Many of them turned out to have voted for Trump, instead of Hillary. Hillary were leading in states like MI and PA, but her polls never exceeded 50% among all likely voters. This election is different. Biden has been leading consistently for many months now. His polls exceed 50% in both MI and PA. Plus there aren't many undecided voters in the polls this year. At the same time, the polls in 2020 show that Trump has never improved his base in many states cause his supporters remain more or less the same percentages in the polls of states like PA and MI, whereas Biden has picked up a few percents of the undecided voters in 2016. Trump beat Hillary by less than 1% in both PA and MI. And this year Biden is leading Trump by more than Hillary was. The difference is more than 2%. Biden will win by winning PA and MI even if he loses in both AZ and FL. So, it is highly likely that Biden will win this election.
If the polls are accurate, Texas appears to be close. With the second most electoral votes, why isn't Biden spending a lot of time in Texas? Is he not doing as well there as the polls indicate?
In Australia we have Compulsory voting and we are not an Authoritarian state and 95% of all eligible voters vote. Making everyone vote has it's benefits as there is only one person to blame if the wrong people are in power - everyone. It sure beats the voter suppression you see in the US.
Hell no.
Where do they get there sample size from? Never been poll in my life and neither has my family and friends.
In short terms.. no.
At 13:02 Patricia Moy incorrectly says that countries where you are forced to vote are totalitarian regimes. I can tell you right now, Australia's mandatory voting system with preferential (1-2-3-4 numbering) voting is much, much better and ultimately more democratic than the USA's.
You’ve got to go vote. Polls do not elect people voters do. Don’t take it for granted go vote everybody. please!!!!!
I’ve never even been asked to participate in a poll
It is funny how business channels create distrust in the system. The way forward is to vote with all your might!
I'll never believe in the accuracy of polls, surveys, statistics, whatever, ever since the one that said most people in America want to work more hours, even if they have a job where they work a lot of overtime, and if given the choice between having more time for family and friends or working, they'd prefer to work. While there are enough workaholics to make that true in some cases, to say the majority of Americans feel that way was just ridiculous. Now i don't pay attention to any of that stuff.
Allow me to answer !
Clears throat*** : Nope!
I lie on polls all the time.
Why? What good does that do anyone?
Haha I do too. I told one company I’d be voting for Biden (I voted for Trump)
Don't forget ... many, many people did not like Hillary.. and trump was new to the scene.Now we know how badly trump failed and it time to move on.. Whole different election this time.
Save yourself 14 pointless minutes and watch the media meltdown from 4 years ago for the real answer
Not when you dominantly poll democratic areas to skew the numbers lol....
I trust poles, I mean why shouldn’t I if the dancer does?
Polls are as annoying as popup ads. Of course people ignore them. Therefore poll results are unreliable due to the small sample pool.
I mean to be fair national polls were accurate about Hillary about leading in votes they were just upsets in a few states where trump won with like less then 0.5% vote lol
If a weatherman says there is a 93% chance of no rain tomorrow and it rains, that doesn't mean his prediction was wrong. There was also a 7% chance of it raining, and that's just what happened!
Not since not all people are going for voting. 45% of people won't even if they are eligible
As long as they share information I will never participate in a poll, it is clear they are making money by sharing your information with anybody they want, when all you wanted to do was give your opinion.
Of 100 million registered voters in the United States...how many were polled. If you asked ONE MILLION people, that's 1%. Not a good sample.
Ignore the polls.
Vote. Vote. Vote 💙💙💙. 👍
(Friday +99,321 new cases,
+971 deaths. Covid!)
You can trust a poll by a poll about polls 😉
This didn't age well.
I’ve never answered a poll. Who’s ever answered polls? I’m 34 and never met anyone who’s answered polls.
Polling is the only accurate predictive tool we have in terms of figuring out how things will go on Election Day. In 2016 every state but one (Wisconsin) finished within the polling margin of error. While polls showed Hillary leading, if you look at the states where she led but lost, all but Wisconsin were statistical ties, meaning the media’s analysis of the polls was flawed, not the polls themselves.
Even if Wisconsin had gone to Clinton, Trump still would’ve won 2016. The polling average in Wisconsin in 2016 was Hillary 4.8% and it went to Trump by 0.77%, a 5.57% swing. If you take every state that Biden is currently leading in today by 5.57% or less and give them to Trump, Biden wins with 279 EVs
I have quit doing surveys. They waste your time.
Wrong question. You should ask: "what factors are undermining the accuracy of polls? Are there actual deliberate acts inflicted by dubious actors that pollute the voting experience?" Resolve that factor before your analysis stand a chance of being, say, un-futile.
Only if people actually vot so VOTE!!!
Look, poll is (1) snapshots (2) statistcal prediction like any weather forecast. If the forecast says tomorrow 80% chance will rain, I bet bringing an umbrella is not going to hurt.
Polls are meant to influence opinion, not reflect it
The problem is that USA is so diverse more than ever and its difficult finding a sample to represents the entire country
That’s why states vote by electoral
There is no obligation for people to tell the truth to pollsters.
Of course polls will not go away, polls provide critical information.
Paying people to poll in person would give a better data result and a larger turnout. For example a $5 meal, shopping coupon, free Calling minutes.... Hence, more accurate margin.
This is a joke that this is a multimillion dollar industry!!!
Polls have gotten more accurate? Cool story bro.
Marist had Gillum up by 7 in 2018. He lost. Trafalgar group was the only one to get the electoral votes 100% accurate and they're rated C- 😆
Margin of error?
It still surprises me to some extent, how so big a chuck of the population that is struggling the most, that have been going through the toughest of breaks for a long time - seem to so commonly cast their votes for candidates, platforms and agendas that are the _least_ likely to help them towards improving their conditions.
This is certainly not a uniquely American phenomenon by any stretch of the imagination, nor something new or isolated to large national elections. But it does at times seem like it's turned up to 11 in the US.
I do wonder why this is. Mostly the general phenomenon, but also why it often seems so intensified and widespread in America. Is it the hardening polarization? Is it ingrown or inherited partisanship? Tradition? Us vs them flock mentality? Are those people primarily voting with their "hearts" or "gut" rather than their analytical mind? Is it a "since life is hard for me, I'd rather it was equally hard for everyone else too" thing? Are their desperations and/or shortfalls in insight, making them easy(er) targets for manipulation, for (reasonably obvious) empty promises and honeyed lies - telling them what they want to hear so they'll let their critical thinking guards down?
Socialism is not help, it’s corruption
@@themiddleclasstaxslave651 Why are you bringing socialism into this?
And socialism isn't any more corruption than captialism is, any mix, and other models. All implementation can be exploited and corrupted. And no sane, rational person would want 100% unfettterd ideology implemented - because they do not account for the fact that humans gonna human.
@@pr0xZen disagree, socialism = lazyism. I’m not having politicans come in and implement “free” government programs that are more expensive than our current system. No fing thank you
Think polls are flawed because people less connected to technology from my experience tend to vote trump
Lack of an educational tool. The internet is a resource, you're correct
Include Nevada , Minnesota and New Hampshire
About as trustworthy as your network is CDNC
😂
USA election polls are so easy ,it's like flipping a coin .
If there is only two candidate for one job ,it's 50 50
For real
Polls don't matter when one side cheats to win.
A poll about polling accuracy lmao
And neither are mail in ballots. Bloody vote in person, vote early, don't wait for the Supreme Court end the count. Vote vote vote.
I worked for a survey company. Our questions were about someone's opinion on a candidate, then ask them if they knew about the terrible things that candidate did, and what their opinion was. THEN, we would ask them about an alternate candidate and their opinions on the positive things the alternate candidate did.
Is that legal?
The answer is NO. When I answered surveys, I answer the exact opposite of what I'm going to do.
But why
Only trust statistics, you made yourself 😉
Polls are statistics. Polls are Mathematical random sampling that resemble the population parameter as accurately as possible. But not all random samples are accurate samples
@SEC Securities and Exchange Commission Accuracy determined by the lying media.
@SEC Securities and Exchange Commission people will lie to a random pollster but how many people who won't vote for someone will pound that person's name into the land in front of there house?
@SEC Securities and Exchange Commission you don't think you can lie about your opinion? Are you for real?
We still need to address why one vote in a less populated state has more weight than one vote in a more populated state. If we only count the popular vote, Biden would surely win. And we wouldn’t need to conjecture.
polls are like focus group studies, the accuracy depends on how you frame the questions and who you ask those questions.
Nope... I've never known a republican who's been polled... ever.
Yeah cause Republicans don’t win elections and don’t lead in an election.
Pretty hypocritical for 538.com to rank pollsters by their past predictions isn't it?