Ukraine: A Regional Powerhouse?
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- čas přidán 14. 05. 2024
- Some thoughts on the future of Ukraine after victory.
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OUTLINE:
0:00 - Introduction
0:35 - How Ukraine wins
1:40 - What happens after victory?
5:10 - European South Korea
6:28 - The long-term is even better
#Ukraine #Russia #PaulMassaro
Thank you, Paul, for your daily support of Ukraine.
Ukraine will be the new powerhouse, no doubt about that. The avant-garde of democracy and west values! Cheers for the great work, Paul. I've been following you from the start and thank God there are people like you!
nazi ua is the bost enslaved country in Europe , since 2013 , its nazi country under dicatorship.
I believe soon all of us will sleep better after our victory!!🇺🇦🇺🇸
Thank you for your supporting and believing in us🙏!
Hi, Paul! I'm a new fan thanks to Jake Broe, whom I've been a big fan of since I came upon his channel a year ago. Like Jake, I'm a former Air Force officer, so I have the greatest respect and admiration for your work, especially what surely must have been a harrowing sojourn in Ukraine. Whatever your day job, the work you do with these videos on CZcams is of huge benefit to us, and I hope you'll continue to make content to give us these really critical insights.
And while I have really enjoyed all the interviews you've done so far and I look forward to more as well, I absolutely love videos like this where you talk about your own thoughts on Ukraine and foreign policy at large. Whether scripted, or prepared, or unprepared; a man of your experience has a huge amount of insight to offer just through stream of consciousness.
Like you, I am quite sanguine on Ukraine's future after what I also see as its inevitable victory against Russia's invasion. I have some thoughts or questions I hope you might cover in a future video some day:
I also look forward to Ukraine's future membership in NATO, and their having our back is of great comfort. But our back, against whom? What will Russia be like? If Putin's regime falls, what will Russia look like after that? While we might all hope for the promise of the 1990s realized, this strikes me as wishful thinking, and you seem to have a similar prognostication. But how powerful will it be if it remains an isolated autocracy? What are the various paths Russia might take in the coming century?
I'm also curious what you think about the demographic situation. Ukraine's birthrate, I understand from my familiarity with Peter Zeihan's work, is just as bad as Russia's, and the war has only exacerbated the situation with the refugees to Europe - will they come back? - the dead in battle, the murdered, the abducted children; none of these atrocities help Ukraine's future. Obviously Ukraine's focus now is on victory and rightly should be, but what can it do after the war to ensure prosperity that lasts past this century, or even to the end of the century, potentially reversing demographic trends that would otherwise lead to the proud nation's collapse?
Many thanks again! Слава Україні.
-Luke
Thank you so much, Luke. This really means a lot. I'm still getting my format worked out, so it's good to see I'm on the right track. As for your questions, I did a previous vid on the future of Russia. It's not massively high quality as I was (and am) still figuring things out, but I think that mostly answers your questions. And I will do another soon that's more focused. I think in a word, Russia is a significantly smaller threat than we thought militarily. And it's asymmetric capabilities, which were a big problem, are now much more limited as the democratic world closes ranks. I think Russia must be isolated for a good long time and only reintegrated once it has demilitarized, denuclearized, and decolonized. It's best to think of Russia as an imperial horde I find. And an ailing one at that.
As for Ukraine, I'm less convinced than some that demographics are destiny because there are a lot of fixes in terms of policy. Particularly if Ukraine becomes part of the EU then it is part of a huge single market with all sorts of opportunities. Ukraine will become a real powerhouse within the EU thanks to its comparatively large population, agriculture, and natural resources. It's likely that the balance of power in the EU would shift east, possibly followed by more relocation into Central and Eastern Europe. Kyiv will have all sorts of Europeans living and working in it. It will be lovely. Anyway, that's how I see it! Thanks again for your interest.
@@apmassaro3 I missed the Future of Russia video! Thanks for letting me know; here it is for anyone who's following the thread: czcams.com/video/exWvImnGBjw/video.html
Thanks for the thoughtful responses; I wasn't expecting that. Keep up the great work, Paul!
Jake was the reason I subscribe to your channel. I though the video he posted yesterday fit perfectly with your discussion with Ivana yesterday!
@@apmassaro3 right on Paul ! It may take a while. Hell, I want to move there for a while. I think many may move there for job opportunities in the future. Hopefully, many will move back. Government could incentivize more children. They also could promote immigration for the east and former USSR citizens to move there. The translation would be easier for immigrants, probably unlikely for the Russians , though. Eventually , Ukraine could recruit Russians that are unhappy with Russia. A good vetting process could ensure security. The culture is a plus. I think tourism should be prioritized. Many will want to come and learn about their past, that has been hidden from the world.
Jake pointed me here also
What you’re saying here, Paul, is very true! Thank you!
Paul, thank you for supporting Ukraine !!! 💙💛
Thanks for your support!
Thank you for supporting Ukraine, Paul! I believe that after the victory Ukraine will join NATO and the EU, and the political decision by our allies will not take long. Ukraine will win with the strong support of our friends and allies, Glory to Ukraine and God bless America!
Thank you Paul, for your incredible, unwavering, important support for Ukraine. Big fan of your twitter, and now your CZcams.
Thank you, Maria! Ukraine fights for us all
Thank you for the support!🇺🇦
Thank you! So much hard work ahead...
Please, keep doing what you do now on Instagram and CZcams 🙏 I much appreciate that you started doing it several months ago to speck for people 🇺🇦
Good morning folk! Love your analytics
Paul, you are just awesome, thank you so much for your support! I always appreciate reading your positive tweets, when there is a grim day here in Ukraine.
Totally agree!
Thank you so much for your support!
Thank you Paul ❤ I agree 100% with you. Greetings from Finland
hiya Paul, thanks for what u do. Big hugs from UA
Thank you, Paul!
Thank you for your work 👏
Been watching your videos for some time now and I like your content. Keep up the good work!
Completely agree! tank you Paul!
Дякую тобі брате 💙💙💛💛
Thanks! Appreciate your vids a lot!
Дякую друже!
Really great full for your standing with Ukraine. Thank you for your support.love your channel. Really interesting videos.
We really work hard to win the war this year. But for this we need more tanks. We need F16 and ATACMS.
Ukrainians always were and are a part of civilized world. If we can defeat russian army, for sure we will defeat corruption and pro russian agents as well. Hopefully, it’s time of new generation of free young Ukrainians to govern the country. There are a lot conscient people, like Sternenko in Ukraine. We won’t turn back to russia occupation. Never.
💙💛 ДЯКУЄМО !!!!!!🇺🇦
You have the energy, enthusiasm and passion of a very young person. I wish you could develop videos for a younger audience that could be used in schools at maybe jr high or high school level. You could definitely generate great conversations in classrooms.
It is scary what Russia is doing to indoctrinate their children with such crazy ideas and basically lies.
Thanks for the information you provide as always
Thanks, Jill. What might such videos look like? I could give it a shot!
Sorry Paul, I am just an old lady with a suggestion. I figured you may know people in education you could work with to produce them.
Steve Hartman from CBS produced some great videos with his kids…maybe something like that format. Or maybe start with a group of college students and encourage them to help you with it.
I was just thinking if I ever had a teacher in school like you I would have paid more attention. This is a great moment to tie current events with history though.
Sorry I am not much help, but Thanks so so much for your response. I hope you can do this. I will watch them if you do.
@@apmassaro3 I agree with Jill! It would be such a worthy endeavor and may help counter the horrific indoctrination to violence that Russian children are suffering. I think you would be a great presenter for young audiences, introducing them to international concerns and how nations work together. We are so self focused here I. America. I wish there were more encouragement toward language-learning and reasons given for that!
@@thestraightroad305 Exactly! I wonder if we spent more time getting back to basics of teaching how global history, economics, and politics impact us as Americans, would media spend so much time talking about how there is a huge concern that people may become disinterested in supporting what Ukraine is doing? As Ivana Stradner said the other day, we have to believe in our values. If everyone felt strongly in their hearts then I think there would be no question that we are all in it to support Ukraine to win it because we are connected through economics, history, etc anyway.
Maybe there are IB courses that teach some of this, but I was never a good enough student to participate in such programs.
Or @PaulMassaro maybe you and Ivana can create an online community of students interested in the topics you present.
Thanks again for your replies
It is amazing watching some of these bloggers that left Russia 🇷🇺. They were often poor, but were able to research and find the truth. So, many will find post if you put it out. You are younger and can potential get them to click on your post. Just a thought. Many are self educated. Russia may have a chance if freedom lovers can just get messages out, here and a abroad. Stay out of heavy politics. Just the facts. We need to reach everybody, not just conservatives or liberal.
Together for victory 💙💛
Absolutely 💯 all that
Thank you, Paul
Thank you, Paul!! Democracy must win.
Thanks Paul ❤
Thank Paul❤
Very nice american guy 👍👍👍who really like's Ukraine and really support's Ukraine!Thanks ❤Paul.Greeting from Ukraine👋SUBSCRIBED !
Ukraine will. be strong ally with a history of struggle for democracy. Ukraine will have huge motivation and dedication to be a worthy member of free democratic world.
I hope to celebrate the Victory of Ukraine this year 🪐
Ukraine a regional powerhouse 💙💛
You’re right fella
Hello Paul. As a Canadian Ukrainian, I thoroughly appreciate your knowledge and have been enjoying listening to you and your interviews. Today I listed to an interview from what sounded like a credible military on the ground , who unfortunately suggests there war is not at all going as well for Ukraine as the media suggests. I’d love to understand your take on his views. I’m sure your busy, but have a listen to this if you can. Thank you. czcams.com/video/PKZpYglZrW4/video.html
From your lips to gods ear slava Ukraine
👍
UA into EU & nato is a no brianer.
At the most basic lvls, food security not just for EU but the world. Energy security for the EU. Nuclear and UA has alot of natural resources that have yet to be tapped.
Maritime security in the black sea.... ect ect it's a long list.
So yea UA is gonna be very prosperous one day there's no doubts there
I wish I could be as optimistic as you - I can't. Things are just too awful for that.
Ukraine should by all rights also become a regional industrial power and arms manufacturer. Especially as Soviet ships, missiles and tanks were once built in Ukraine. Hopefully Ukraine and Poland together with the Scandinavian countries will form a center of power within the EU and NATO to counteract the occasional bad faith behaviour of both France and Germany to assume a leadership position within Europe.
Another Great Video. Thank you very much. Let's do a poll: (Paul you can also pin this poll to the top of the comments)
The US and Germany delayed on sending their tanks to Ukraine because:
(a) They thought the maintenance and operating logistics would be too much to handle
(b) They thought the Russians would capture a tank and get ahold of the technology
(c) They thought Ukraine would likely lose the war anyway and then the tanks would be a big loss for the West
(d) They were afraid the tanks could eventually be sold to another country, without their permission
(e) Germany didn't want to send tanks to a NON-NATO country lest the government be thought of going against widespread German non-aggresive policy which has been strongly supported since WW II
(f) They know the reason, but they are just not telling us.
Please put your answer in the reply comment
They didn’t want to be forced to provide maintenance for years to come. Also, the tanks are probably not maintained. It will take a long time to get them ready. It would be an embarrassment to them.
@@garyklimitchek45 Which is all the more reason they should have started this last spring/summer
@@bigguy467 Germany hoped that Ukrainian would surrender, so it could go on as normal. It’s all about money. They were kind of forced to help more because every one else agree to.
👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍
same here, EU should have done this from day 1. should be a simple question do we want to help Ukraine? yes then do it 100%
Yes it is very frustrating. You would think they would be more proactive instead of reacting after an atrocity has been committed. Send in the weapon close to the border and then squabble over weather they should be used or not. If anything, this move might be a deterrent although I doubt it.😞
It's a chain of unfortunate decisions in so many countries and for so many years... It is what it is, as a Ukrainian I can just say thank you so much to all the nations supporting us! ♥️
@@redlinenorma1 very much so. the russians have planed this very well. EU did as expected. but Ukraine did not. but I am happy that EU is supporting Ukraine more and more. but again I wish it had been a lot sooner and more. I am happy you appreciate it and it is only natural that we do
100%
Do you think just these many tanks can make a difference? I think we should give Ukraine at least 3 times more tanks
I mean in alternative reality,perhaps.
But not in our Reality
Paul, low volume in your video. Could you please fix it in the next videos?
Thank you for your support!
I am working on it! Thanks
Another excellent video Paul. Serious question though - how do you get Russia to pay for rebuilding without the baggage of their influence which usually comes along with these things?
I plan to do a video answering this question! But short answer: much of their sovereign reserves are in the West. Hundreds of billions of dollars
Here’s to overcoming those legal challenges!
I don't want to sound dismissive, but Ukraine has an enormous task ahead of it. The economy is in shambles, corruption is rampant, democratic institutions are still extremely weak, and the justice system is dysfunctional. When the war ends in Ukrainian absolute victory, that is not the end, but the beginning. It will be tough, but I think Ukraine can make the needed reforms, and I hope the democratic West will do its best in aiding Ukraine after the war as well. Ukraine deserves it.
!!!!!!!!
One can only hope that the war will end quickly with all territorial boundaries restored to the original recognized independent Ukraine of 1991. Ukrainians have struggled for many years for their freedom and deserve nothing less. I do fear that we will discover many more atrocities committed by the Kremlin of Russia. The rebuilding of Ukraine will be a multi generational project. I hope that we, democratic societies, do not forget the Ukrainian people after the sensationalism of war fades away.
United, we will defeat the Kremlin. 🤟
🇺🇦🫂🇺🇸
💙💛💙💛💙💛💙💛💙💛
Yes happy Paul. It still has to play out and many lives still will be lost unfortunately. Lets just hope Russia crumbles sooner rather than later. Another factor that could make it sooner is the economic pressure within Russia and just the daily body and attrition rate of Russian soldiers and equipment is phenomenal. Hopefully they just run out and have to stop sooner.
🇺🇦🇺🇲🇺🇦🇺🇲🇺🇦🇺🇲🇺🇦
all those tanks are gonna get smoked
Sound a little far-fetched, but I'll be very happy if your words will become a reality.
🇺🇦 УКРАЇНА ПЕРЕМОЖЕ 🇺🇦
Paul, I have seen a lot of horrors, but this story of a Dad attending to his wounded son every day for the past five months pulled at my heartstrings to the max.
czcams.com/video/KfSuItLcOb0/video.html
Is there any way we can help them and bring them over here (US) for care and and treatment?
Second video in a row your sound is too low.
Is it still too low? I checked it before recording! Ugh
@@apmassaro3 sorry, it was for me 🤷♀
My iPhone was too loud.
Cope. "Just grant me a couple miracles"
finally leopards are free
Why risk nuclear war over who govern Crimea? It seems even more reckless and silly when the vast majority there wish to belong to Russia.
🇺🇲🇺🇲🇺🇦😎☝️💪 ЗСУ
Don't count your chickens before they hatch. Russia, unfortunately, will never give up…multigenerational war as far as Russia is concerned. Also, can't rule out nukes…whether battlefield nukes or biggies on major cities. You are quite idealistic, and paint a best case scenario for the future. Mike Tyson…"everybody has a plan, until he gets punched in the face". Nice video though. Hopeful. But realistic? It remains to be seen.
For this the world must isolate russia and « ordinary »russians. Don’t accept them. Don’t tolerate them.Word must punish Russians and made them pay reparations to Ukraine. Unpunished evil come back twice stronger. We have already examples with WW2.
But you are right, Russians who remember this war, who were educated in ruzzianfugen kindergartens they will not stop. Because from the childhood were thought to hate Ukraine, America and to be ready to die for russian empire.
But war is an expensive thing. So if sanctions will work till 2050, till all this terrorists will die, Russia will not have a strength to start another war and will be decomposing in its own shit, behind a huge wall.
😂 use same zelensky powder
My god. The amount of cope.
Our friend❤
This will not age well..
I wonder who lost their stash in the Whitehouse?
Day dreaming
NATO ☝
It's all fun and games of Russian advances... Until the allied tanks get in Ukraine .....
It's super crazy that you have any kind of following. Straight propaganda.