Doug Polk's SICKEST Hand Ever?? $110,000 vs Phil Hellmuth
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- čas přidán 4. 03. 2021
- We need to talk about this hand from High Stakes Poker featuring Doug Polk and Phil Hellmuth. In what appears to be a standard cooler spot, Hellmuth flops the nuts while Polk has the 2nd-nut straight. However, things get weird when Hellmuth makes a massive overbet shove. Can Polk really justify a fold here?
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Be honest... would you have found a fold if you were in this exact situation?
Honestly, I would've folded pre-flop and then wanted my cards back after seeing the board.
Snap call lol
Honestly... no.🙁
I call and I am giggling with glee while I do it
Against precisely Phil Hellmuth - absolutely. Hell, I'd even shrug-call against typical OMCs before calling off against Hellmuth in this spot. He's literally the only player who could ever show up on a televised 200/400 game that I could find this fold against.
Phil fucked up when he said I could have 1010 as blockers and doug was like you bringing up blockers get out of here lol
Sounds like this Doug Poke guy is pretty good at Polker.
Isn’t that Vanessa selbst?
Lmao
Hahahaha I can't believe Bart doesn't even know his name lmfao
@@royfokerpoker1802 he also mispronounces Phil Hellmuth's name as well
After watching Polk play drunk on Poker Night in America I think its safe to say he plays better sober
But way more fun to watch drunk!
@@brianwilson7624 that's a silly statement lol he plays bad on these streams for entertainment value
Q U E E N T E N H O N E Y
Phil literally couldn't have played that hand worse unless he folded on the flop, what a joke he is.
Yep, felt like I was watching a noob at a 10 / 25 cent online game, get the nuts and jam.
agree. open folding flop helps balance his range :)
Also, I feel like his check on the flop was pretty bad too.... Not quite as bad as the jam, but you can't let that flop get checked through when you're 200BB deep.
Phil is terrible at cash games
This hand, to me, proves that phil is the worst high stakes cash game player ever
Polk broke this down on his own channel today. He said it was almost a snap fold. The only reason he thought as long as he did is because of the TV factor and you don’t want to make an embarrassing fold.
His breakdown is good. He and Bord both have all the QT in their range was one of his major points.
I can't find the video can you give me the link?
@@tobibatt4731 It's at the beginning of Fedor vs Limitless stream on Doug's channel
@@edwardjulius4029 Nice thank you.
unrelated - Bord betting vs 2 players on this board is lighting money on 🔥
6:18 Bart applying for WH Press Secratary
It was an epic laydown. The spot was so rare, very few players would know the math that you did in real time.
Not really, the majority of succesful deepstack nlh cash players are familiar with folding the 2nd nuts.
@@whataretheoddz Nobody's folding the second nuts on the river
He raised with Q T honey!!!
Great fold...But PH has to be the worst player of all time playing on high stakes poker. Folding KK vs 72 or AK preflop or going all in with the nuts in this instance...unfucknbelievable!
this is just tourney donk strat. It's why tourney players suck at cash games. All about protecting your stack.
@@codmott286Maybe so, but even if cash is not your best game, you cannot play like that against elite players. He's making a fool of himself (once again). The fold is very good but the play from Hellmuth is amazingly bad even JRB wouldn't do that....
Some people keep saying that I mispronounced Doug Polk's name, but it's not intentional. Maybe it's my remanence of my Boston accent, but when I say "yolk" it rhymes with the way I say "poke". But I still hear a subtle "l" when I say Polk in the video.
Yolk is pronounced Yoke though so hook or by crook you got that right. Are you saying you try to pronounce yolk as yolk and it comes out yoke? So basically you try to pronounce yolk incorrectly and it comes out correctly which is why when you try to pronounce Polk it comes out incorrectly as Poke???
Ah f@#k it - it was a good lay down lol.
This is about the biggest ration of crap I've seen dished out at you from CZcams comments, so you're clearly pretty awesome at this
This is a great analysis of this hand. At the beginning of his stream today Doug said that Phil's shove here is an awful play, and I agree with him.
Where i can find this stream?
This was a Mike Postle level fold.
not really, obviously a good fold but reasonable considering the action
Crotch theory optimal bro.
@@benconlon875 I heard his breakdown and agree but damn.. Find a little humor in life.
Phil did everything in his power in this hand to get a fold.
So many things he could have done differently, waiting 2-3 mins before shoving, just raising,STFU.
He did everything perfect for Polk to find a fold here.
Wait for the Doug Polk recap of this hand where he will definitively tell you that you can both fold or call.
A lot has changed since you read Harrington 15yrs ago… maybe check out some newer stuff, anything by Janda is good… Excelling at No limit is another good one… since you’re struggling with implementing mixed strategies. And I get that it takes more work and concentration, but remember what Harrington suggested with his very simple approach, find something to look at, like the second hand on a watch or phone clock, and if it’s between 0-55 play the majority way you’ve built in, and otherwise play the other way. Hope this helps with your confusion…. Good luck out there with the 1-2 game. It can be frustrating playing against people who study and pay attention to the changing strats.
Who the hell is Doug Poke?
Vanessa selbst's male persona
he's a polker player
He's the guy standing behind you with wood.
He invented Pokemon
hellmuth played this hand like a rookie!!!!
Not sure if you have to do all the math... it's a SAWB (slightly ahead/way behind) situation against a huge overbet from a nit. A quick scan of the various combos is enough to click the "fold" button. The real challenge is having the discipline to realize the situation you are facing instead of snap-calling because "OMG second nuts!"
Hellmuth ranted for multiple episodes about how great he is at poker and then misplayed a hand in the worse way possible. Most amateurs wouldn't jam in that spot and allowed a player with the flopped 2nd nuts to fold on the flop.
He was "protecting against the flush-draw and Trips" no doubt, like an A-level Rec-player!
Except GTO wise he didn't misplay this hand.
Best CLP vid ever. Very helpful.
I think you have to take off one of your 10 Queen combos because I don't think there's any way possible if Phil had to open-ended straight flush draw with the top straight that he would ever have gone all in
Is it me, or is Phil hellmuth just flat out terrible now
Whatever he did in that position was bad
He kinda always has been
Phil Hellmuth is a great poker player in that he is extremely good at exploiting weaker players in MTTs and is probably making a super profitable player here if this was one of his Silicon Valley home games. But he is no where near the most talented poker player is 1000% the fish in a game like this.
He WAS good but refused to adapt to an ever evolving game. His ego, narcissism, and megalomania kept him trapped in a box.
Has been since the start. Believe that
I was wondering if you were going to post this. Pretty amazing fold by Doug Polk.
Doug Polk is the GOAT.
@@berdyderg900 a nitty fish with 15 WSOP bracelets, 64 final tables, 165 cashes, 5 WPT final tables and 18 cashes. Doug who?
@@derekhatfield745 I can promise you that even though Phil beat Doug heads-up in that King of the Hill thing a few years back, he wouldn't take even 5% of himself in a HUNL cash challenge against Polk like the one Negreanu did. No way in hell. And that should tell you everything you need to know right there.
@@alistairwillock7266 heads up is literally the least played format of poker. Doug Polk is good at the end of a tournament. Good for him. Phil's record speaks for itself.
@@derekhatfield745 Let me fix that for you: Heads-up no-limit is literally the most challenging and most studied form of poker.
This is a super easy fold when the bet is coming from Hellmuth.
"Super easy".
If you hit the lab and thoroughly analyzed the hand just as Bart did, you can justify folding the second nuts. But don't kid yourself into thinking this is simple stuff. Studying these spots at home is no big deal, but try doing this in a live environment.
Polk is a beast.
@@DominationRotation By "coming from Hellmuth" he means you don't need no fancy ass lab analysis, you are safe to assume he's got the nuts
@@JMacSD I can recall plenty of clips of Helmuth overbet jamming with draws. So I'd be cautious with assuming anything in poker.
@@DominationRotation Exactly. And interestingly, Polk has repeatedly made fun of other players and commentators for perpetuating this myth that 'Hellmuth never bluffs.'
I really enjoyed the analysis and breakdown. Initially it seems nitty to fold the straight for Polk but after you explained it, it made a lot of sense.
The ONE data point is Phil's massive overbet (7x Pot) + high-stakes. It's not as "amazing" a fold as social media is making it. The true headline is Phil Hellmuth jizzing his Stack, rather than "setting the hook".
@@EricA-xd9fn I wasn't describing it as amazing - I thought it was nitty at first, now it makes sense.
@@iamamish I wasn't targeting you, but Doug Polk's minions are in overdrive on his "greatness" all over social-media. It's nothing close to "amazing". Now if Hellmuth doubled Polk's raise, and Polk found a fold, that would be intriguing and worthy of a discussion.
Great hand analysis, Bart. You articulate everything very clearly and logically.
Would be interesting for you to take a look at Finding Equilibrium's take on this hand. What really struck me there, is that both Bord's stab and Hellmuth's shove are actually what the solver suggests.
I love how bart says "Polk" hahahahaha
Ya, he says poke. Super annoying. Hey Bart, it's pronounced Pullk!
A lot of people are doing maths on this spot when Hellmuth's range is literally just [QT] :D
If you remove what we know about Hellmuth's tight image from the analysis is it a slam dunk call versus a stranger?
Yeah probably because against a stranger there is a decent chance they're a maniac making that play
Love your HSP coverage, thanks Bart!
The math was helpful and great. Ultimately it was Hellmuth's comments (he could have blockers, etc) that was the tipping point. His bet sizing with a draw wouldn't be 9x pot given his playing style. I was looking forward to your take on this key aspect of the hand. He doesn't have any draws. Please reference one of his cash game hands where he goes bat shit crazy with a draw for 9x pot. It doesn't exist.
Not only does he not have any draws, he does not have any sets either.
Betting 9x pot with a set would also not be in his repertoire.
What if Phil repops the flop to 25-30k, and then shoves turn on a blank, is there any way Doug gets away from it then?
That would of been the best play jamming the nuts like this was such a bad play it's untrue
Nope. There is no way Doug gets away at that point unless turn is a major scare card. Hellmuth played this the one way to not get paid.
When was this match played? Was it recently?
When you play Short Deck Hold'em and are numb to these situations: **shrug**
Thanks for another great video Mart Sampson.
Phil made 2 critical mistakes in this hand (besides his lol'tastic shove). He opened his mouth and he feigned weakness. Table talk requires a lot of confidence, the kind you usually get when you have a big hand. He should have kept his mouth shut so he'd at least look scared. And then he just gave the classic Matt Damon tell "when a fish acts meak he's strong" and started suggesting all the weak hands he could be holding which means he's obviously very strong.
ah yes my favorite poker player, Doug Poke
Jesus. Did CZcams really not put a character limit on usernames?
Love the channel Bart, great stuff
Thanks bort!
i kno this vid is older but i have a math question, I did the 4/2 rule for his outs and i came up with the same % of equity , did i do that correctly ?
spots that require this type of analysis are very common in PLO. Interesting to see the same principles applied to NLHE! wp Bart
How do you justify excluding a wide range of suited flush draws in Hellmuth’s HJ RFI & x/r range?
I think the 9x pot bet does that quite well.
Great hand! I haven't seen that one before. Thanks for showing it Bart :)
I think it only actually happened recently, I believe its from this season of High Stakes Poker
@@sean_haz Oh, I see. Thanks!
Great breakdown, it's cool to see a video like this. Way to stay balanced 😆
How would you have played the hand in Phil's shoes? 3 bet the flop or smooth call?
Your analysis leads me to believe this was not a hard laydown for polk
I'm wondering if Hellmuth was perhaps overthinking his play in this hand. Maybe he was thinking that someone else would think "hey Phil would never do this with the nuts, so it must be weak/bluff", and acting like he doesn't want a call but obviously wants one. Phil is more of an exploitative player than a GTO one. Would this be in the realm of possibilities?
Not with Helmuth unless he's already tilted. He's a known nit, and although he does use exploitation often, he would never risk such a large amount with an average hand
I think what made this a harder lay down was that a nit raised QTo so it was harder to put him on that
Great vid thanks
I really hoped you would analyse this - thanks!
Hey Bart, im making the move to Texas. Any opinion on trying to make an hourly wage when all the clubs charge a day pass for 10$ and an hourly rate 10-12$ ? Yes no rake but seems like a stretch to me ?
You can get an annual membership through TCH for $300. You would basically have to average a session of poker every 12 days to make the membership valuable. So if you aren’t playing on average a little over twice/month, you can just pay the daily membership.
The hourly rate gets me, but they seem to always have some type of promotion running to save 20-50% off. I would just hate to play 10 hours, lose $500 and then still have to pay $130 fee for my seat time.
I hear the games are juicy at TCH, but I’m so used to playing live rake, that the adjustment to seat rental would get me. My home casino does a $5 max drop if the pot is over $100. Most aren’t complaining about that drop, unless you won 10 pots over $100 in say 2 hours. However, if you’re running that hot, are you even concerned over the $25 difference in drop vs. seat rental time?
It’s ultimately going to depend on how you’re running. A 10 hour session where you book $100 profit is actually a loss, because you have to pay seat time. That’s where live rake can come out ahead. With seat rental, you need to be aware of your play style vs table dynamics, and if that table can be profitable enough to make money. 12 hours of poker/month for a year is $1,440 at a $10/hour fee. In a 1/2 game you would need to average 5BB/hour to break even, and that’s not including membership fees. If your goal is a modest $3k/year profit you will need to average 15.5BB/hour to cover your fees and turn a $3k profit. I would say seat rental caters more to either someone who wants to hit and run or someone who can consistently win playing longer sessions and getting in deep if need be.
I would first focus on how often you want to play and how long you want to play in a 30 day period. Run the math in what that would cost in fees and compare that to your play style vs a game that can play a bit loose at times with some unpredictable variance swings.
To me, that would be a starting point.
@@williamr4053 Thanks a bunch for the in depth response my dude
Honestly it doesnt make sense unless im playing deep 2/5 which I dont have the bankroll for
Past hand history played a role in this for sure. Phil’s known to have it when he overjams & Doug knows it. Great fold by Doug, never could have done it myself.
Phil Helmuth is flatting all sets on this board. Look at his hand history. If he is raising, its not an over shove.
Wow, his voice is super high at the start.
Given analysis. I dont think he ever has QTo here. And with QsTs would he really shove? So there is only 2 combos of QTs.
Would you consider giving Hellmuth T8 of spades as well? Maybe KTspades?
Never mind. You just did.
What’s the big deal? I’ve seen this one player at Stones Casino make similar big lay downs all the time
nice analysis!
You can remove all the 10x of spade combos. Phill hellmuth is never shoving on a draw like that.
I think Helmuth was saying that he had pocket 10s. Everything in Polk's range has that crushed and I think he says it to try and get called.
Bart, can you examine or comment on this play from Helmuth? I don't really get it.
I think he thinks that Doug has a set with 8s or 9s
To just call from the big blind Polk has all the two pair and all the sets in his range.
@@TheHilltopHermit exactly
I think it’s more about him not being a great cash game player and when a nut changing turn card comes off he won’t know what to do and won’t make a mistake. In his mind if he ships the flop then he either wins the hand or avoids making a mistake. However it’s kinda funny cause this itself is a mistake lol
@@kennethdick1998 he’s pretty good at cash games too now :) definitely think your take is shockingly off
I think a very small lead here by Phil is good on flop because vs 2 opponents he makes that play with lots of his marginal made hands in order to squeeze out the next to act who will always have equity vs Phils one pair hands.
Don't get me wrong, I'm probably snap-calling. But to people saying that Hellmuth would only bet this huge with a huge hand... it may well be true, but I can't recall a single instance of this ever having happened. I've probably watched every clip of Hellmuth hands on youtube and I don't remember a single such hand.
The great PH 🤣🤣🤣😂😂😂
Bravissimo 👌👏👏👏
In a recent game I had Q9 of spades and the flop came KJ10 one spade. I bet and got one call. The turn was a spade and I got check raised. I almost raised but tanked and finally figured out I was probably behind to AQ. But I had to call given the spade draw. When the river came the ace of hearts my opponent was visibly upset. I sucked out. But I had the flush draw so I don't think my call on the turn was that bad.
My opponent tried to berate me for my call on the turn but other players at the table pointed out my spade draw and told him he was out of line. They pointed out that I had stacked out raising chips but decided to just call so they all knew I had figured out what he had on the turn. He was a very tight player but this hand set him off on a nice losing streak. Lol
Funny thing is, if Phil was 30-50BB deep in a tourney, it's a good play. Guy really needs to stick to tournaments.
Snap call...all day, every day.
That's some high level thinking by Doug... I could NEVER match that.
it's really not.
@@bondjames5874 To me, it is. That's my standard. Well done you for being so much better & such a deep thinker.
What I learned from this video? Bart is smart.
I get that Hellmuth probably thinks Polk is a calling station that can’t help himself but I don’t really think you should ever have a shoving range here if the second nuts can comfortably fold. Weird spot as calling the check raise also looks ridiculously strong. Would be curious what Bart thinks the right play is for Phil as this was more about making the lay down.
Call is strong as Hellmuth is folding 1 pair hands but it is probably 2pair+ and draws, which Polk is beating. A blank comes on the turn and Polk would have no reason to stop betting if Hellmuth only called on the flop.
This fold is 100% GTO and not particularly close, even without knowing Hellmuth is a nit. It's just difficult as humans for use to fold hands with high absolute hand strength, even if we know our actual equity is low.
Is it GTO? It’s definitely correct from an exploitative standpoint, given Hellmuth’s reputation etc.
But does a solver fold the second nuts here? I guess it’s a multi-way spot with a 7x jam so very hard for a solver to analyse.
How are we supposed to calculate all this in real time?
You're not. Nobody is. But by analyzing these spots, looking at the general concepts, and looking at the math repeatedly you can get a feel for spots, and know where you're at. No one knows in real time that they have exactly 27.5% equity in a complex spot, but they can know they have somewhere around X, and that it's probably not enough.
I dont think jamming is here optimal or even that good. But it's not awful. Polk happened to have the one hand that makes this a bad play. But if Polk has a set or 10-x flush draw, polk has a lot of equity and can get tricky to play down multiple streets.
This is probably how Hellmuth has made money throughout his career getting people to call his allies which are rarely bluffs.
In his heads up v Antonio I don’t think he ever did a huge all in bluff but he kept getting called anyway.
I suppose that’s how most pros make money,from fish that can’t lay down a good/great hand
Dude you normally are so calm and collected in your vids but for whatever reason in this you look like someone has a gun pointed at you behind the camera lmao
Phil lost a ton of value !
The day that Phil Hellmuth plays with 99 or 88 this way is the day Tom Dwan becomes a nit. I'd say you're correct, he has JJ, QT, and then draw heavy Ts: AT, KT, QT, T8, and maybe T7.
Wonder if you ask Doug Polk about this hand, would he really say, 'yep that's what I thought about'. Or would he go 'no idea what Bart is talking about, just felt like Phil was strong'
That was really one of the illest...
I called a $120 river bet today & lost, under the impression that my opponent could've been bluffing me off a chop (straight on board). Quite an unusual call for me- I was trying to be a hero. I don't think I could ever fold here
Someone tell Bart that Doug’s last name has a “L” in it.......
L is silent. Poke is correct lol.
@@SlimShady771 Al Bundy always pronounced it Polk High and Al is the GOAT!
Pls some one can calculate
The percentage of this spot
I would give Phil almost an even tighter range of only Q 10 both spades or Q 10 offsuit with the Q of spades. He knows Polk HAS to call if he has some combo of Q 10, and that would mean Phil is playing a giant pot and freerolling the spade draw.
Actually, Polk or the third player in the hand have to call if either of them have the Q 10. Worth a shot, and protects against a lot of combo draws they might have or sets they might have.
The math is great and I’m sure Doug partly took that into account, but my feeling is it’s also just a huge exploitative fold. If it’s purely EV/math that means Doug should/would fold this against others at this table as well. Id love to hear Doug’s insight
A good player is going to do that with TT sometimes, which Phil would never do...
Phil was thinking of Vegas and the F******* Mirage.
I mean great fold, but the shove is huge. The 2K c bet we can dicount cuz it doesnt really mean much, Polk raises to 7K, then hellmutch shoves for over 97K lol. 14X shove on the flop. There is literally no other hand hellmuth does this with. A set, he calls or just raises to like 20K, if he has a flush draw, same play. Hellmuth would never shove 14X without the nuts on the flop on such a wet board with a c bet and a raise over the top without a hand that cannot improve.
Wasn't Doug in the sb?
Doug’s reaction to having to fold was so funny
My common brain can not handle this video...
People are calling this the "Greatest Fold of All Time"....that's total BS. Hellmuth jams $97K into a $13K Pot. It's a tight fold, no doubt...but Hellmuth's OVERBET was the "Tell" that made Polk's decision *easier* Now if Hellmuth had re-raised 3× ($20K-$25K) and Polk folded, then it's HATS OFF genius.
I agree I also believe if Phil had raise to 25 to 30,000 doug probably would have reraised all in at that point
@@michaelcordes6153 If anything, Phil's All-in was Rec-player level "scared betting". With players like Doug Polk you T-R-A-P or Value-Bet. Why the Poker world is so ga-ga about this spot is beyond me 😴😴😴😴😴😴😴
Helmuth probably took this line because he’s happy to win the pot there, putting Polk on a big combo draw. A10/K10 of spades
Its Phil Helmuth. Its an easy fold. You really think Phil has a non-nut overbet flop check shove range ? He isn't that good.
Hellmuth does not have it in him to make this move unless he has what he has ,or a set.He just does not have it in him like Dwan or another high caliber player
There wasn’t enough rake to make the call.
Honestly I don't think I would have folded. Would have called knowing I am probably losing.
But why aren't we considering that Phil can have T7 spades? If he include that in his range it gets even worse for Polk.
Interesting question - had the players been sitting in opposite chairs - does THAT change the analysis? Doug Polk shoves a LOT more hands than in Phil's range. I'm betting Phil calls and then whines about luck. That is the advantage of a balanced players - they induce more tough decisions
The Rampage poker effect. Playing crazy works for some people. I can't do it but some guys play that style to perfection.
I actually pronounce it poke also. Might be a north east thing