I asked my brother if he was more confident in doing home improvements now that he has owned a house for 4 years. He said “no my confidence is exactly the same as 4 years ago” “I was delusional 4 years ago. But my confidence hasn’t changed.
And we wonder how people who couldn't tell you what the ingredients in Tylenol do think they understand a pandemic and vaccines better than the medical community...
I almost fell prey to the Dunning Kruger Effect by not clicking on this video because I thought that I knew everything there was to know about it. Almost! But then I got curious: What else could there be? The video is 24 minutes long. That's much longer than what I would need to explain what I knew about the Dunning Kruger Effect. What could he possibly have to say about it that I do not know, even though I have a degree in psychology? Well, clicking on the video turned out to be the right decision.
There always more to learn never think you know everything because there so much knowledge in the world and probably half the shit that you do know is probably wrong we were just told it and believed it 🤔
The weirdest version I would have experienced with this, is how i tought my exams went. When I didn't study enough, I'd overestimate my results. When I studied a lot, I'd think I had failed them. They were mostly multiple choice so guessing was always An option
something similar happens to me , i realize. I usually procrastinate up until i have less than 4 days for my exams. Two of these days i spend mentally preparing to study, while the last two i actually do study. So at the end of the 1 st study day i acess my knowledge by solving some problems and see my results, which turn out pretty good if not excellent. The 2nd, i procrastinate way more... then i redo the problems. I quickly realize how bad i performed and i hastily go back to study before the exam. When i do this i consistently end up with long term memory of the subject, as well as better grades.
A rule of thumb: double check everything. A mistake is more damaging and a setback than the time it takes to double check. For example, you write a document, then don't press the send, but the following day, re-read it and if good then send or else fix and then double check again.
My brother-in-law (16 years younger than me) was constantly giving me unwanted advice about how to be a good father when my kids were young, even though he had no children of his own at the time. My three sons are young adults now, and they turned out to be awesome people: intelligent, well adjusted, happy, successful, thriving, kind, hard working, generous, social, decent human beings. He currently has one child (an 8 year-old daughter), and let’s just say that his “dad skills” are pretty bad. His ego and sense of superiority are truly mind-boggling.
I have a saying that a person only knows what they know now. Its hard to explain things to a person sometimes because they only know "for sure" what they know now, even if its a biased opinion or incorrect fact, they are only aware and have been living out that opinion, so its hard to get some one to open their mind. Its hard also for people to conceive this, which is why some people get very angry in arguments. I read a quote the other day that went something like: "When you have an open mind, other people try to put things into it."
I was put in charge of a group of people to restart a failed project. An understanding of the Dunning-Kruger effect saved me weeks of frustration, anger, and wasted time. I was able to pick out bullshit artists almost instantly because a person claiming to know more than everyone else was never right. Not even once. It was a battle but would have been a quagmire if I believed people who claimed to "know it all"
I know that the more I know the more I want to know. I seek that my matter be in a constant state of curiosity. And I find reality consistently surprises me.
As I have long said, the greater arrogance accompanies the greater ignorance. And the greater arrogance normally is possessed by those in higher authority.
Loved the video and explanation! It's interesting to think about how the Dunning-Kruger effect might vary across gender and culture, especially since the common (and probably wrong) assumption is that it affects everyone equally. And if the entire effect is not real...woo boy...we need a new explanation as to why so many people over the past 18 months have reached the belief that they know enough to be on equal footing with epidemiologists and infectious disease docs regarding all things COVID, despite having no relevant training or experience whatsoever.
The Corona Pandemic is kinda a new thing. Also most 'experts'/whatever don't really have more information about it than you could read in the news. Not only in this field. But even more so: Einstein, Tesla etc proved that even 1 person can be a greater expert on a topic (especially a 'new' one) than all other experts before. (But are proven right by most experts afterwards/after they gained the new insights/proves/etc). Over time it seems like Corona is indeed something you can die from-likely even more than other (bad)flu viruses-&obviously especially weakened ppl are in danger because of it. But especially now as most ppl are vaccinated & are less in danger, most ppl should be able to live completely like before again, as it has psychological,& therefore even more also physical disadvantages for such a long time in everyday life. Maybe even other unknown long term risks are made caused by this lifestyle, the less air to breathe, & other bacteria, viruses can be advanced by the masks, not only herpes. It's possible that the lungs are long term slightly damaged, or the nose etc are less trained to filter the air/are altered by the circumstances. There doesn't seem to come other solutions anyway,& the points mentioned are already enough to go back to complete normality. It's especially not fair for the younger generations. 1st most underestimated it/maybe could've avoided it/&stayed in a small region (maybe even in China only), then it was a bit overdramatised, now it's kinda ok/like it should've been the time when it was new
The real questions are, what motivates the experts in their fields to give certain responses? What is the motivation of the experts? Could some also be motivated( fear, pride, greed, social pressure?) Have scientists, in past history, done just that? Could they have also been wrong in their understanding and overconfident in their fields? Is it wrong to not have the total sum of all experts findings presented in a logical, reasonable, ethical, way? I may not know all the answers to that problem but I would like to think(IMO) that we humans are not as honest as we say we are. If experts findings/conclusions can't be tested, thoroughly they cannot be trusted. I have had COVID, twice and never received any vaccines for that.
I feel that is a different phenomena. Anti-vaxxers and pandemic deniers aren't acting out of mere ignorance, but out of motivated reasoning. The deniers don't want to accept the reality of COVID because it shatters their worldview.
Hi ! Thank you for this video, it was interesting, I like the way you put things in perspective. I just found the background music a little loud, it made it difficult to understand what you said at times. I'm also very glad to see you guys released a book, I just bought it :)
All I know is that the stupid out number the smart and they’re demanding to be in charge. I blame social media for giving them a platform to expouse thier idiocy….humanity is doomed!
I find it hard to start new hobbies because I find it hard to believe I could learn it well enough to do it justice. I WANT to do it, but I'm so afraid of being terrible at it, an absolute embarrassment. I'm afraid it'll end up being pointless.
Honestly same, it’s why I still haven’t done anything with music because I sort of feel like whatever I’ll be able to do with it is going to be an insult to music heh Same with writing
Basically why I left art school; instead of pursuing photography, I ventured into office administration and customer service. I have almost two decades under my belt now. I love it and have learned so much.
As someone with a hobby that lends itself to judging my own abilities quite frequently, I found that when I started writing songs, just two years ago, that it was the greatest thing, but by the time I finished that album, I knew most of the songs were crap, ever since then, my opinions on a particular song I wrote change over time, but I feel like I’m generally improving, and slowly getting better, I think this is the best way to avoid being embarrassingly overconfident in your abilities. If you frame it that you are always striving to be better, then you never think you know enough to be an expert, at least at my stage in music writing, but then again, I’m no expert, but it’s interesting either way
As a college teacher, I noted that the best and brightest often voiced anxiety about failing, while the average or stupid students voiced confidence that they would pass and were shocked when they did poorly. But I noticed it already as a student, when a classmate used to call me to basically outline essays for her to write because she had no idea what to write. Then she'd get a B- and I'd get an A and she'd be angry and envious (and strangely competitive with me) because I wrote my essay the night before and she had been working on hers (and calling me when she got stuck writing it) for several days and drafts. She never figured out that if I could basically tell her what to write in her essay and then choose a different topic and write mine, I was probably simply smarter than she was. Very talented people tend to think that what they can do well is just...obvious, because it's obvious to them. So they don't overrate themselves. What they do well seems obvious to them. But the incompetent ones don't know what they don't know. So they think they know all there is to know. Pride plays a huge role in incompetent people doing stupid things. They think very highly of themselves out of pride. However, it takes humility to learn, to admit, "I don't know, and other people know things I don't know." It's one of the paradoxes of teaching that you're dealing with people who don't know what they don't know, and also don't know *why* they need to know it. You have to convince them that what you're teaching is worth knowing or being able to do. And some people have such huge pride that they actively refuse to learn because it would mean admitting there's something they don't know that other people do know. If you want to get smarter, shut your mouth, open your ears, realize that everybody knows something you don't know, and never stop asking people open-ended questions about things they know. And if a person brags about knowing a lot...take it with a grain of salt because the ones who think they know the most are generally wrong about that.
I find a lot of this has to do with generly how someone is raised to belive they if they know a bit, they can feel secure that they know a lot. When none of us know everything. Try your best but be aware you are not the center of the universe. And it is ok and healthy to keep learning.
It all comes down to what your purpose is. If you aim to help others you need modesty and intelligence, if you aim to help yourself you need arrogance and deceit.
I wonder if part of it has do with misinterpreting "average". To say you're "better than average" means you first need to know what that is, and if you're better than half your peers in the subject. You're right, I often see the Dunning-Kruger effect used and cited in ways to satisfy peoples egos. One of the things I like to do is make and sew cosplay or creature outfits. I'm okay at it, and it's fun to compete even if I never win. There's always people with much more training and bigger budgets. It's still fun for me because I get a little piece of the action in something I enjoy. I'm not working in Hollywood, I'm just some guy who grew up enjoying making my own Halloween costumes as a kid. We shouldn't let our lack of knowledge or skill in something rob of us of our joy in a given activity.
I think one of the points of Dunning-Kruger effect is the line between "knowing where you are at and in reality it IS as you think" and "you thought you are at somewhere but in reality it's NOT" In your case, you simply are not the victim of this particular effect, because you know where you are, and your point is just doing whatever you love.
My last group project and I'm still absolutely livid! It was basically what I did my masters degree on, my special interest. I gave them all sorts of background and papers, set up, wrote out and conducted the methodology - and that was my contribution, they promised they would do the write up. I was struggling with mental health so that was a relief. I asked if they had written a paper before and they all said yes, in fact 2 of them said they'd done nearly this exact project as part of another subject and got high marks. So I trusted them - and it became increasingly clear they had no idea what they were doing (I don't know why it wasn't clear when I kept trying to prompt them to come up with an objective only to be met with silence). I thought one of them had my back and I kept trying to hint at how much of a disaster it was but they always thought it was going great. The last week it was due I was out with a stomach bug, and I tuned in in the last day, it was a full 200 words short with no write up or explanation in the results - and we obviously got a horrible mark. And I'm fuming just thinking about it, it was so embarassing for me. This was MY thing, the one thing I know about. Group projects are the worst. (But yeah, I have also fallen for this effect myself... always starting new hobbies, there's lots of room for me to overestimate my abilities. For instance, I thought I had gotten pretty good at crochet, turns out I can't even knock out a basic granny square - and it was a disaster when I tried editing a design a little 😅 honestly I think my rows are only neat because all my stress goes into making them as tight as possible, which is probably one of the reasons I couldn't knit, they ended up getting so tight I couldn't move the needles anymore)
As a person being 46 and brand new to a new professional field this scares the crap out of me. For my self that is. I know there is a lot that I don't know about my field having just graduated and started in the field. It's insane the amount of stuff we don't know in any given area. I constantly work to ensure I'm doing the best I can to be competent with the realization that I have a long way to go.
I don't know if its the same effect, but there kinda seems to be a strange way people who are competent in one field are more likely to overestimate themselves in other fields.
What a great video! I wonder if this result is from a lack of personality traits like humility, self reflection and possibly discipline and or bravery? I’m very curious about this stuff, I say bravery because I see a lot of people in my life never take a moment to doubt their ideas, it’s their idea so it’s gunna be great and they move forward and when it goes right it’s all their brilliance and when it goes wrong it’s everyone/everything else’s fault. I’m compulsively checking myself in this aspect. I’ve been learning about cluster b personalities and they are defined by their rigidity or lack of ability to modify or adjust. From what I understand they they have no self reflection and are very impulsive as well as many other troublesome traits. I think that might be the fertile ground for the extreme examples this effect?
I like the notion of de-stigmatising the "stupidity" of overestimation. My self-estimations are all over the place, depending on time, the scope of comparison, the context I'm in... I'm a master shoemaker and come into emotional turmoil over slight mistakes that others, if at all, register only as variation. In those moments I feel horribly incompetent, even though I'd have to concede I'm not. In other situations, I feel that a bit of over-confidence is helpful in picking up a new skill or mustering the courage for a big new project. And while debating, I feel a somewhat heightened confidence in all participants might add efficacy to the process. Maybe, because it is overall effectively impossible to "know your place", the idea that you might be doing fine (i.e. being in that upper-mid percentile range) is just something we need to function.
You did a while ago, but Above the Noise posted a video just a few hours ago about imposter-syndrome, which is just the opposite of Dunning-Kruger. The more you know, the more you know _how much_ there is to know and thus how little of it you know; the less you know, the smaller the total volume of knowledge you're aware of and thus think you know a larger percentage of it. It's all maths! 21:35 - Probability and statistics are evil, the illegitimate child of maths. (Vsuace2 just did a video that demonstrates that.)
"Just Do It" Now we know where that came from! 😆 Being in advertising for many years, I pitched my share of inside jokes that the client actually chose; I'm sure I'm not the only AD to do so... It's embarrassing how much money and research goes into separating you from your dollar, and behavioral science studies (besides being truly hilarious anecdotes around the office) are used extensively to sell almost everything.
i was talking to someone and i brought up black country idk why something about our conversation led to it but i dont remember and she called me racist....they didnt know black country was a thing and i tried reasoning with them but she still called me racist..
How dumb am I? How smart am I? How confident am I? How insecure am I? Man, I struggle with with this sometimes. How much of what people, teachers, experts in this field said regarding this interesting topic, is really the truth? Does it really matter? Is it possible to know truth about one's self in a measurable, applicable way? Example, I play Dungeons and Dragons that has a particular stat( INT) intelligence( from 0 vegetable to 30 deity) The game basically ranks that Stat to I.Q. of a character. I know this may be an over-simplistic way to perceive the subject of what is talked about in this vid. Open for thoughts from the chat posters. Thanks.
Maybe it's better to put it this way, generally living in a small world with below average people makes you less good at assessing yourself against the whole world, and the same goes for being in a small world but full of amazing people, which makes you less accurately know how good you are. It's not a matter of how stupid and how smart people are. This is just simply how our brain works We experience and learn what we are exposed to, and build the model along the way. But I'm afraid that the story does not just stop there, because probably more and more people are falling into it rather than escaping it, because of the algorithmic, highly personalized digital world we are living in right now, and inevitably will be even more digital, more personalized in the future
I believe so! It's also why most people think they're great drivers. To be fair, I believe there is also some evidence that many ads are quite ineffective, but when used properly, they're potent. Anyway, this comment is sponsored by Brilliant. Go to www.brilliant.org/neurotransmissions to sign up.
I do t have confidence in anything I do, which makes it really hard for me to judge my own performance in a lot of stuff, although I know what I’m really bad at
I remembered when I was still back in my native born first country before coming to the US, there was once I was in the unforgettable conversation with a woman, a "friend" or "a colleague" if I should put her as is, I don't want to be rude to put her as stupid, but I do think she is.........she tiredlessly argue with me cordless phone are only cell phones! NO, cordless phone can also be cell phones and also landline phone. But, back then at least 25 years ago when landline phones were still used widespread, and cell phones or mobile phones were just at the start; people have two types and cordless phones were just started to put into use. At that time, I see cordless phones were both landline and cell phones or back then people call mobile phones. However, my colleague fiercefully argued with me just to shut my mouth so she could win the argument that cordless phones, to her opinion, was only used for mobile phones! I of course shut up, and she "convincingly" believed she won the argument!
I'm a bit late but if anyone is still here i am very curious how this effect works in people with a negative self image like me for example i feel a lot of anxiety about doing just about anything i then try to learn about it a lot before i start but then i notice that is not as a big deal as i first thoughts i notice that i underestimate my ability from doing the laundry to talking to stranger's would love to hear some thoughts:))
I would have enjoyed this video more if the music weren't so loud. It was intrusive, and kept me from being able to concentrate on what was being said.
Has anyone conducted a study of the Dunning-Kruger effect using participants diagnosed with depression? People who are depressed are shown to have a stronger negativity bias than non-depressed individuals, which makes me think that they are less likely to overestimate their competency levels. In fact, there is evidence that when it comes to cognitive appraisal, people with depression see things more realistically than their Pollyanna counterparts.
I have an illness that affects me cognitively so I have a lot of tests showing what my abilities are. The bulk of tests I score in the top 95th percentile. But there are areas where I’m in the 20th percentile. I am an extremely confident person. But there are areas that I truly wonder if that confidence translates to a real ability.
Funnily enough, I watched this entire video expecting you to address the over saturation of music as being your Dunning Kruger moment in video editing 😂 Other than that though thanks for another illuminating topic.
It is a very interesting topic and I Iike the conception of the video. I am definitely looking forward watching more videos of you, even though I had trouble understanding you at times due to the loud background music.
I hate know-it-alls. They make it ever so hard for those of us who do. The effect you're looking for is "the Lake Wobegone effect", where all of the children are above average.
Oh dear. This is terrifying. Yeah, it seems pretty real from the inside. Only the experience of being repeatedly humbled seems to dispel it. I think I'm due for another round of harsh disillusionment 😅
Yes we never know if we are operating in an egotistical way. I dont judge the "others" who responded differently during you know what. Everyone is looking at different information and confirmation bias is very easy with the internet readily available. The key is to keep an open mind. Never attach yourself to beliefs as a part of your values and never be afraid of being wrong.
Well, I'm not as big of a risk taker as I used to be. I tried lots of activities, so I knew I was terrible at various things. I mostly beat to the awkward drum. People who do not try to play a music instrument, or who can't dive, or who cannot truly read and isn't aware that they are illiterate and not behind a couple of grades. My favorite though has to do with math problems. I've been hated a lot for my lack of talent in the mathematics. People love to swarm me and say horrible things, but I learned a long time ago that they often do not know what they are doing or read wikipedia and repeat some knowledge. Ironically, people who come after me the most are people who expect me to know an inch equation that took 50 years to create. I did child level maths and no one could figure out something that took a real maths person less than 20 seconds to do.
I mean the results of the original experiment seem to be saying more that everyone thinks they're a bit above average at anything they they do unless they're shown otherwise. Like I'm not a statistician, but it really just looks like everyone guessed they had pretty much the same level of competence
Woodworking. I thought I answered all my imaginary questions about woodworking and was an experienced woodworker by watching tutorials until I actually started doing it. Holy damn I’m always looking up a video on a certain saw so I definitely am doing it correctly. Also dovetails are WAYYY harder than I thought. I’m never doing that again.😂😅
I spent roughly 10 years studying the Piledriver line of CPU's from the 32nm SOI to the "XV" cores on the 28nm SHP node, and someone had the gull to spend 2 hours' worth of time arguing whether or not I had any authority on that specific subject. Like, I _know_ I can't speak on the nodes and cpu designs from other vendors, but come on, I know this subject matter. They were overly defensive and returned to their fallback of dismissing my studies as just "playing with a CPU for 10 years". I didn't think they were stupid, just extremely ignorant and toxic.
It is a very one sided evaluation of Dunning Kruger effect. Other (practical) points: 1. EVOLUTION Humanity would never start anything new without it. 2. SOCIOLOGY if one doesn't show off then she wouldn't let go near a new skill by the so called experts. 3. PSYCHOLOGY The persona have to cheat the self and the super-ego.
I'm not sure I understand how the computer generated graph de-legitimizes the original study?? Like...it just picked random numbers. Run it enough times and you will get the same graph. It's like the thing about how if you put infinite monkeys at typewriters, eventually one will recreate a Shakespeare play.
Ironic that you would discuss your lack of facility with Video production given that I couldn’t hear about 25% of your discussion because the music is pounding too loud drowning out I even went back to relisten but some sections I could make out even on a second attempt. Turn down the music.
Either I have it full on and realize squat were I have the Dunning Krüger Effect - or I am that bad in my selfworth that I think I suck at stuff compared to others. Even though I know I have stuff I am an "expert in" my subconsious always say nope you are an imposter. I am aware that I know not that much about new stuff. Stuff I am good at I am aware that I am maybe above average but a whole world away from people who are really masters in their fields. The only things maybe are baking or stuff related to things I already know but are more specialized. I am often underestimate the time or dext or experience skill I need when I work with new materials/programs I don't know. When I learn something new in a field thats similar to fields I am very knowlageable in I always have really high expectations of myself that I have to instantly be good at it and ignore the "scale learning" aspect of stuff.
This is very interesting but why did you edit sound of background music louder than the human speech? That's a bit counterproductive and quite annoying ;p
Man these unskippable preroll ads are getting spookily well targeted
dang I wish I lived at a time when hot doctors were playing in whiskey ads and prescribing cocaine so I could meet you and get drunk together
What was the ad in question?
Time to install an adblocker!
@@frosty_brandon the one at the start of the video with a guy that looks suspiciously familiar
@@MedlifeCrisis Lmao I thought you meant an actual ad for a sec, now I get it
As one of the worlds leading experts on Dunning Kruger I'd be happy to set you right on a few points.
😂❤🎉
I asked my brother if he was more confident in doing home improvements now that he has owned a house for 4 years. He said “no my confidence is exactly the same as 4 years ago” “I was delusional 4 years ago. But my confidence hasn’t changed.
Is this a personal attack?
Cool to see you here! Love your stuff 🙌
And we wonder how people who couldn't tell you what the ingredients in Tylenol do think they understand a pandemic and vaccines better than the medical community...
I almost fell prey to the Dunning Kruger Effect by not clicking on this video because I thought that I knew everything there was to know about it. Almost! But then I got curious: What else could there be? The video is 24 minutes long. That's much longer than what I would need to explain what I knew about the Dunning Kruger Effect. What could he possibly have to say about it that I do not know, even though I have a degree in psychology? Well, clicking on the video turned out to be the right decision.
Same here🥲
There always more to learn never think you know everything because there so much knowledge in the world and probably half the shit that you do know is probably wrong we were just told it and believed it 🤔
Yep. Lol!
@@OakTree-LandScapeOnFacBook there’s infinite things to learn about every thing
@@larsonfamilyhouse all different perspectives to look through
The weirdest version I would have experienced with this, is how i tought my exams went. When I didn't study enough, I'd overestimate my results. When I studied a lot, I'd think I had failed them. They were mostly multiple choice so guessing was always An option
something similar happens to me , i realize.
I usually procrastinate up until i have less than 4 days for my exams. Two of these days i spend mentally preparing to study, while the last two i actually do study. So at the end of the 1 st study day i acess my knowledge by solving some problems and see my results, which turn out pretty good if not excellent. The 2nd, i procrastinate way more... then i redo the problems. I quickly realize how bad i performed and i hastily go back to study before the exam.
When i do this i consistently end up with long term memory of the subject, as well as better grades.
"I guess-so."
As soon as randomness is introduced the result can be misleading
0:09 I was just about to skip this ad, and then I realized that it's a part of the video's beginning
I get the impression that Dunning and Kruger were not nearly as good at designing studies as they thought they were
A rule of thumb: double check everything. A mistake is more damaging and a setback than the time it takes to double check. For example, you write a document, then don't press the send, but the following day, re-read it and if good then send or else fix and then double check again.
My brother-in-law (16 years younger than me) was constantly giving me unwanted advice about how to be a good father when my kids were young, even though he had no children of his own at the time. My three sons are young adults now, and they turned out to be awesome people: intelligent, well adjusted, happy, successful, thriving, kind, hard working, generous, social, decent human beings. He currently has one child (an 8 year-old daughter), and let’s just say that his “dad skills” are pretty bad. His ego and sense of superiority are truly mind-boggling.
Man, I already have a complex about not being good enough, you're saying I'm even more incompetent than I realise!? Haha!
Hopefully on that upward slope.
Is there another interestingly named effect to explain why people who excell in one very narrow field think that means they are good at everything?
There is actually, but I can't remember what it's called and now it's going to keep me up all night 😖
Hallow effect - a kind of ...
I have a saying that a person only knows what they know now. Its hard to explain things to a person sometimes because they only know "for sure" what they know now, even if its a biased opinion or incorrect fact, they are only aware and have been living out that opinion, so its hard to get some one to open their mind. Its hard also for people to conceive this, which is why some people get very angry in arguments.
I read a quote the other day that went something like: "When you have an open mind, other people try to put things into it."
I was put in charge of a group of people to restart a failed project. An understanding of the Dunning-Kruger effect saved me weeks of frustration, anger, and wasted time. I was able to pick out bullshit artists almost instantly because a person claiming to know more than everyone else was never right. Not even once. It was a battle but would have been a quagmire if I believed people who claimed to "know it all"
Giggity
I know that the more I know the more I want to know.
I seek that my matter be in a constant state of curiosity.
And I find reality consistently surprises me.
As I have long said, the greater arrogance accompanies the greater ignorance. And the greater arrogance normally is possessed by those in higher authority.
Loved the video and explanation! It's interesting to think about how the Dunning-Kruger effect might vary across gender and culture, especially since the common (and probably wrong) assumption is that it affects everyone equally. And if the entire effect is not real...woo boy...we need a new explanation as to why so many people over the past 18 months have reached the belief that they know enough to be on equal footing with epidemiologists and infectious disease docs regarding all things COVID, despite having no relevant training or experience whatsoever.
The Corona Pandemic is kinda a new thing. Also most 'experts'/whatever don't really have more information about it than you could read in the news.
Not only in this field. But even more so: Einstein, Tesla etc proved that even 1 person can be a greater expert on a topic (especially a 'new' one) than all other experts before. (But are proven right by most experts afterwards/after they gained the new insights/proves/etc).
Over time it seems like Corona is indeed something you can die from-likely even more than other (bad)flu viruses-&obviously especially weakened ppl are in danger because of it.
But especially now as most ppl are vaccinated & are less in danger, most ppl should be able to live completely like before again, as it has psychological,& therefore even more also physical disadvantages for such a long time in everyday life. Maybe even other unknown long term risks are made caused by this lifestyle, the less air to breathe, & other bacteria, viruses can be advanced by the masks, not only herpes. It's possible that the lungs are long term slightly damaged, or the nose etc are less trained to filter the air/are altered by the circumstances. There doesn't seem to come other solutions anyway,& the points mentioned are already enough to go back to complete normality. It's especially not fair for the younger generations. 1st most underestimated it/maybe could've avoided it/&stayed in a small region (maybe even in China only), then it was a bit overdramatised, now it's kinda ok/like it should've been the time when it was new
The real questions are, what motivates the experts in their fields to give certain responses? What is the motivation of the experts? Could some also be motivated( fear, pride, greed, social pressure?) Have scientists, in past history, done just that? Could they have also been wrong in their understanding and overconfident in their fields? Is it wrong to not have the total sum of all experts findings presented in a logical, reasonable, ethical, way? I may not know all the answers to that problem but I would like to think(IMO) that we humans are not as honest as we say we are. If experts findings/conclusions can't be tested, thoroughly they cannot be trusted. I have had COVID, twice and never received any vaccines for that.
I feel that is a different phenomena. Anti-vaxxers and pandemic deniers aren't acting out of mere ignorance, but out of motivated reasoning. The deniers don't want to accept the reality of COVID because it shatters their worldview.
@@Cyberfender1 what do you infer from having had Covid twice but no vaccine I didn’t understand your point
Why is CZcams recommending me this video? I don’t get it
Thank you. I'm gonna share this to my coworkers together with my resignation letter. HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
Do it!
@@neurotransmissions Be careful what you wish for.
The more you know, the less you know. By the way, your knowledge of filmmaking is amazing.
Exactly!
Thought you were mr.beast for a sec 😂
Mr beast give me moner
mr breast give me money
Hi ! Thank you for this video, it was interesting, I like the way you put things in perspective. I just found the background music a little loud, it made it difficult to understand what you said at times. I'm also very glad to see you guys released a book, I just bought it :)
All I know is that the stupid out number the smart and they’re demanding to be in charge. I blame social media for giving them a platform to expouse thier idiocy….humanity is doomed!
Reddit is basically Dunning-Kruger expressed repeatedly and relentlessly
“Damn, that’s kinda mean!”
- “But we have the data to support it”
“That’s not better, can’t you see how that doesn’t make it better?”
I find it hard to start new hobbies because I find it hard to believe I could learn it well enough to do it justice. I WANT to do it, but I'm so afraid of being terrible at it, an absolute embarrassment. I'm afraid it'll end up being pointless.
Honestly same, it’s why I still haven’t done anything with music because I sort of feel like whatever I’ll be able to do with it is going to be an insult to music heh
Same with writing
Basically why I left art school; instead of pursuing photography, I ventured into office administration and customer service. I have almost two decades under my belt now. I love it and have learned so much.
As someone with a hobby that lends itself to judging my own abilities quite frequently, I found that when I started writing songs, just two years ago, that it was the greatest thing, but by the time I finished that album, I knew most of the songs were crap, ever since then, my opinions on a particular song I wrote change over time, but I feel like I’m generally improving, and slowly getting better, I think this is the best way to avoid being embarrassingly overconfident in your abilities. If you frame it that you are always striving to be better, then you never think you know enough to be an expert, at least at my stage in music writing, but then again, I’m no expert, but it’s interesting either way
Writing a letter to congress on Salvia was always my favorite.
As a college teacher, I noted that the best and brightest often voiced anxiety about failing, while the average or stupid students voiced confidence that they would pass and were shocked when they did poorly. But I noticed it already as a student, when a classmate used to call me to basically outline essays for her to write because she had no idea what to write. Then she'd get a B- and I'd get an A and she'd be angry and envious (and strangely competitive with me) because I wrote my essay the night before and she had been working on hers (and calling me when she got stuck writing it) for several days and drafts. She never figured out that if I could basically tell her what to write in her essay and then choose a different topic and write mine, I was probably simply smarter than she was. Very talented people tend to think that what they can do well is just...obvious, because it's obvious to them. So they don't overrate themselves. What they do well seems obvious to them. But the incompetent ones don't know what they don't know. So they think they know all there is to know. Pride plays a huge role in incompetent people doing stupid things. They think very highly of themselves out of pride. However, it takes humility to learn, to admit, "I don't know, and other people know things I don't know." It's one of the paradoxes of teaching that you're dealing with people who don't know what they don't know, and also don't know *why* they need to know it. You have to convince them that what you're teaching is worth knowing or being able to do. And some people have such huge pride that they actively refuse to learn because it would mean admitting there's something they don't know that other people do know. If you want to get smarter, shut your mouth, open your ears, realize that everybody knows something you don't know, and never stop asking people open-ended questions about things they know. And if a person brags about knowing a lot...take it with a grain of salt because the ones who think they know the most are generally wrong about that.
I find a lot of this has to do with generly how someone is raised to belive they if they know a bit, they can feel secure that they know a lot. When none of us know everything. Try your best but be aware you are not the center of the universe. And it is ok and healthy to keep learning.
Now I want you to upload all of these videos you refer to, and I especially want all the 48 Hour Film Festival ones.
cool video but i can beat a grizzly bear in unarmed combat. not even breaking a sweat either. it would be no challenge
Northernlion be like
Maybe a dead grizzly bear
It all comes down to what your purpose is. If you aim to help others you need modesty and intelligence, if you aim to help yourself you need arrogance and deceit.
Matt’s axiom: The less a person knows about something, the more certain they are about the little they know.
" Ever think back on your past self and cringe at your ignorance?"
Every day, from pre-school on.
😂
This was an awesome episode, thank you Micah :)
I wonder if part of it has do with misinterpreting "average". To say you're "better than average" means you first need to know what that is, and if you're better than half your peers in the subject. You're right, I often see the Dunning-Kruger effect used and cited in ways to satisfy peoples egos.
One of the things I like to do is make and sew cosplay or creature outfits. I'm okay at it, and it's fun to compete even if I never win. There's always people with much more training and bigger budgets. It's still fun for me because I get a little piece of the action in something I enjoy. I'm not working in Hollywood, I'm just some guy who grew up enjoying making my own Halloween costumes as a kid. We shouldn't let our lack of knowledge or skill in something rob of us of our joy in a given activity.
I think one of the points of Dunning-Kruger effect is the line between "knowing where you are at and in reality it IS as you think" and "you thought you are at somewhere but in reality it's NOT"
In your case, you simply are not the victim of this particular effect, because you know where you are, and your point is just doing whatever you love.
The "background" music is way too loud for me to concentrate on the speaker.
that intro was genius
My last group project and I'm still absolutely livid!
It was basically what I did my masters degree on, my special interest. I gave them all sorts of background and papers, set up, wrote out and conducted the methodology - and that was my contribution, they promised they would do the write up. I was struggling with mental health so that was a relief.
I asked if they had written a paper before and they all said yes, in fact 2 of them said they'd done nearly this exact project as part of another subject and got high marks. So I trusted them - and it became increasingly clear they had no idea what they were doing (I don't know why it wasn't clear when I kept trying to prompt them to come up with an objective only to be met with silence). I thought one of them had my back and I kept trying to hint at how much of a disaster it was but they always thought it was going great.
The last week it was due I was out with a stomach bug, and I tuned in in the last day, it was a full 200 words short with no write up or explanation in the results - and we obviously got a horrible mark. And I'm fuming just thinking about it, it was so embarassing for me. This was MY thing, the one thing I know about.
Group projects are the worst.
(But yeah, I have also fallen for this effect myself... always starting new hobbies, there's lots of room for me to overestimate my abilities. For instance, I thought I had gotten pretty good at crochet, turns out I can't even knock out a basic granny square - and it was a disaster when I tried editing a design a little 😅 honestly I think my rows are only neat because all my stress goes into making them as tight as possible, which is probably one of the reasons I couldn't knit, they ended up getting so tight I couldn't move the needles anymore)
As a person being 46 and brand new to a new professional field this scares the crap out of me. For my self that is. I know there is a lot that I don't know about my field having just graduated and started in the field. It's insane the amount of stuff we don't know in any given area. I constantly work to ensure I'm doing the best I can to be competent with the realization that I have a long way to go.
I don't know if its the same effect, but there kinda seems to be a strange way people who are competent in one field are more likely to overestimate themselves in other fields.
What a great video! I wonder if this result is from a lack of personality traits like humility, self reflection and possibly discipline and or bravery? I’m very curious about this stuff, I say bravery because I see a lot of people in my life never take a moment to doubt their ideas, it’s their idea so it’s gunna be great and they move forward and when it goes right it’s all their brilliance and when it goes wrong it’s everyone/everything else’s fault. I’m compulsively checking myself in this aspect. I’ve been learning about cluster b personalities and they are defined by their rigidity or lack of ability to modify or adjust. From what I understand they they have no self reflection and are very impulsive as well as many other troublesome traits. I think that might be the fertile ground for the extreme examples this effect?
Now that I know this I definitely know everything and feel more competent. I guess I now have more input of competence - incompetent as it were.
I want to watch this interesting video but the music is so loud and ridiculous! Good grief!
I like the notion of de-stigmatising the "stupidity" of overestimation. My self-estimations are all over the place, depending on time, the scope of comparison, the context I'm in... I'm a master shoemaker and come into emotional turmoil over slight mistakes that others, if at all, register only as variation. In those moments I feel horribly incompetent, even though I'd have to concede I'm not. In other situations, I feel that a bit of over-confidence is helpful in picking up a new skill or mustering the courage for a big new project. And while debating, I feel a somewhat heightened confidence in all participants might add efficacy to the process. Maybe, because it is overall effectively impossible to "know your place", the idea that you might be doing fine (i.e. being in that upper-mid percentile range) is just something we need to function.
You did a while ago, but Above the Noise posted a video just a few hours ago about imposter-syndrome, which is just the opposite of Dunning-Kruger. The more you know, the more you know _how much_ there is to know and thus how little of it you know; the less you know, the smaller the total volume of knowledge you're aware of and thus think you know a larger percentage of it. It's all maths!
21:35 - Probability and statistics are evil, the illegitimate child of maths. (Vsuace2 just did a video that demonstrates that.)
"Just Do It"
Now we know where that came from! 😆
Being in advertising for many years, I pitched my share of inside jokes that the client actually chose; I'm sure I'm not the only AD to do so...
It's embarrassing how much money and research goes into separating you from your dollar, and behavioral science studies (besides being truly hilarious anecdotes around the office) are used extensively to sell almost everything.
i was talking to someone and i brought up black country idk why something about our conversation led to it but i dont remember and she called me racist....they didnt know black country was a thing and i tried reasoning with them but she still called me racist..
Easy. Tell her to CZcams it.
How dumb am I? How smart am I? How confident am I? How insecure am I? Man, I struggle with with this sometimes. How much of what people, teachers, experts in this field said regarding this interesting topic, is really the truth? Does it really matter? Is it possible to know truth about one's self in a measurable, applicable way? Example, I play Dungeons and Dragons that has a particular stat( INT) intelligence( from 0 vegetable to 30 deity) The game basically ranks that Stat to I.Q. of a character. I know this may be an over-simplistic way to perceive the subject of what is talked about in this vid. Open for thoughts from the chat posters. Thanks.
That ad was great, where can I buy that Dunning Kruger stuff? As I have always suspected, this should go great with my confirmation bias.
Maybe it's better to put it this way, generally living in a small world with below average people makes you less good at assessing yourself against the whole world, and the same goes for being in a small world but full of amazing people, which makes you less accurately know how good you are.
It's not a matter of how stupid and how smart people are.
This is just simply how our brain works
We experience and learn what we are exposed to, and build the model along the way.
But I'm afraid that the story does not just stop there, because probably more and more people are falling into it rather than escaping it, because of the algorithmic, highly personalized digital world we are living in right now, and inevitably will be even more digital, more personalized in the future
Is illusory superiority why most people think that adverts don't alter their choices.
I believe so! It's also why most people think they're great drivers. To be fair, I believe there is also some evidence that many ads are quite ineffective, but when used properly, they're potent. Anyway, this comment is sponsored by Brilliant. Go to www.brilliant.org/neurotransmissions to sign up.
“And welcome to driving on salvia”
Damn it, I thought I knew everything about this subject!
I do t have confidence in anything I do, which makes it really hard for me to judge my own performance in a lot of stuff, although I know what I’m really bad at
What's with the loud music drowning out the spoken text at times?
I remembered when I was still back in my native born first country before coming to the US, there was once I was in the unforgettable conversation with a woman, a "friend" or "a colleague" if I should put her as is, I don't want to be rude to put her as stupid, but I do think she is.........she tiredlessly argue with me cordless phone are only cell phones! NO, cordless phone can also be cell phones and also landline phone. But, back then at least 25 years ago when landline phones were still used widespread, and cell phones or mobile phones were just at the start; people have two types and cordless phones were just started to put into use. At that time, I see cordless phones were both landline and cell phones or back then people call mobile phones. However, my colleague fiercefully argued with me just to shut my mouth so she could win the argument that cordless phones, to her opinion, was only used for mobile phones! I of course shut up, and she "convincingly" believed she won the argument!
Nowadays, it’s easy. You’re just Google it but back in the day my solution to people like that was to just say Gee, you never know.
I'm a bit late but if anyone is still here i am very curious how this effect works in people with a negative self image like me for example i feel a lot of anxiety about doing just about anything i then try to learn about it a lot before i start but then i notice that is not as a big deal as i first thoughts i notice that i underestimate my ability from doing the laundry to talking to stranger's
would love to hear some thoughts:))
Critical thinking starts with second guessing & an essential entry-point to meta-cognitive capabilities.
@@christopherhamilton3621 hi thanks for your reaction
I think I don't fully understand what you mean
Can you maybe explain it in a different way ?
And wise people are humble. Really shows how you tell.
Dude. Lower the music when you're speaking. It's particularly bad at around the 17:30 mark.
I would have enjoyed this video more if the music weren't so loud. It was intrusive, and kept me from being able to concentrate on what was being said.
Has anyone conducted a study of the Dunning-Kruger effect using participants diagnosed with depression? People who are depressed are shown to have a stronger negativity bias than non-depressed individuals, which makes me think that they are less likely to overestimate their competency levels. In fact, there is evidence that when it comes to cognitive appraisal, people with depression see things more realistically than their Pollyanna counterparts.
I have an illness that affects me cognitively so I have a lot of tests showing what my abilities are. The bulk of tests I score in the top 95th percentile. But there are areas where I’m in the 20th percentile. I am an extremely confident person. But there are areas that I truly wonder if that confidence translates to a real ability.
I knew that. Should I have admitted that? 🤔
In uni I aced everything in the basic module. When it came to the advanced term papers I got very confident and didn't do as well as I had expected.
Best. Thumbnail. EVER!!!
Driving on salvia!! 😂
Knowing what you don’t know
The only thing left to do when you know everything is starting your own CZcams channel.
*_This man just finessed the third wall_*
Too loud background music! (I get that the ramping up of the music was a joke, but after that the level remained to high.)
Funnily enough, I watched this entire video expecting you to address the over saturation of music as being your Dunning Kruger moment in video editing 😂 Other than that though thanks for another illuminating topic.
It is a very interesting topic and I Iike the conception of the video. I am definitely looking forward watching more videos of you, even though I had trouble understanding you at times due to the loud background music.
The Dunning Kruger effect is not a real effect, but rather a statistical artifact of autocorrelation.
I hate know-it-alls. They make it ever so hard for those of us who do.
The effect you're looking for is "the Lake Wobegone effect", where all of the children are above average.
Oh dear. This is terrifying. Yeah, it seems pretty real from the inside. Only the experience of being repeatedly humbled seems to dispel it. I think I'm due for another round of harsh disillusionment 😅
The thing is...you never know that you arent part of the stupid people you talk about, stay humble, no one has the authority to call someone dumb
Rather remain silent and be though a fool, than speak up and remove all doubt.
Yes we never know if we are operating in an egotistical way. I dont judge the "others" who responded differently during you know what. Everyone is looking at different information and confirmation bias is very easy with the internet readily available. The key is to keep an open mind. Never attach yourself to beliefs as a part of your values and never be afraid of being wrong.
Well, I'm not as big of a risk taker as I used to be. I tried lots of activities, so I knew I was terrible at various things. I mostly beat to the awkward drum. People who do not try to play a music instrument, or who can't dive, or who cannot truly read and isn't aware that they are illiterate and not behind a couple of grades. My favorite though has to do with math problems. I've been hated a lot for my lack of talent in the mathematics. People love to swarm me and say horrible things, but I learned a long time ago that they often do not know what they are doing or read wikipedia and repeat some knowledge. Ironically, people who come after me the most are people who expect me to know an inch equation that took 50 years to create. I did child level maths and no one could figure out something that took a real maths person less than 20 seconds to do.
I mean the results of the original experiment seem to be saying more that everyone thinks they're a bit above average at anything they they do unless they're shown otherwise. Like I'm not a statistician, but it really just looks like everyone guessed they had pretty much the same level of competence
Woodworking. I thought I answered all my imaginary questions about woodworking and was an experienced woodworker by watching tutorials until I actually started doing it. Holy damn I’m always looking up a video on a certain saw so I definitely am doing it correctly. Also dovetails are WAYYY harder than I thought. I’m never doing that again.😂😅
I spent roughly 10 years studying the Piledriver line of CPU's from the 32nm SOI to the "XV" cores on the 28nm SHP node, and someone had the gull to spend 2 hours' worth of time arguing whether or not I had any authority on that specific subject. Like, I _know_ I can't speak on the nodes and cpu designs from other vendors, but come on, I know this subject matter. They were overly defensive and returned to their fallback of dismissing my studies as just "playing with a CPU for 10 years".
I didn't think they were stupid, just extremely ignorant and toxic.
You're too modest; that assholes was stupid.
Oh shit, was that BIGMONEY at the beginning?
You know it!
So we are locked in between "dunning Kruger effect" and "imposter syndrome"
btw, ur wife mentioned the she would continue to use the apollo neuro and update us? How's that going?
this is so well made!!! it deserves more views!!!
Seems to me that the most common reaction to learning about the DKE, is to assume that it's something that happens to other people.
Yes I think medics are very prone to this😂😂
It is a very one sided evaluation of Dunning Kruger effect.
Other (practical) points:
1. EVOLUTION Humanity would never start anything new without it.
2. SOCIOLOGY if one doesn't show off then she wouldn't let go near a new skill by the so called experts.
3. PSYCHOLOGY The persona have to cheat the self and the super-ego.
Never thought I’d see the resurgence of driving on salvia, let alone on a neuroscience channel. But here we are lmao
If you’re 45 and over you look great. Continue to take care of yourself.
If the juice was invisible, wouldn't the cameras see his face through the juice?
I'm not sure I understand how the computer generated graph de-legitimizes the original study??
Like...it just picked random numbers. Run it enough times and you will get the same graph. It's like the thing about how if you put infinite monkeys at typewriters, eventually one will recreate a Shakespeare play.
It’s a real phenomenon, even if it hadn’t been statistically shown. We all know it’s real. We all know we’ve been on both ends of it at some point.
This dude seriously thought lemon juice would make him invisible? Does he also think that if he covers his eyes no one will be able to see him?
Ironic that you would discuss your lack of facility with Video production given that I couldn’t hear about 25% of your discussion because the music is pounding too loud drowning out I even went back to relisten but some sections I could make out even on a second attempt. Turn down the music.
Dunning-kruger from the perspective of natural selection and self-esteem. compassionate Vision, sugestion. 😃👍 ps: The best!
Either I have it full on and realize squat were I have the Dunning Krüger Effect - or I am that bad in my selfworth that I think I suck at stuff compared to others. Even though I know I have stuff I am an "expert in" my subconsious always say nope you are an imposter. I am aware that I know not that much about new stuff. Stuff I am good at I am aware that I am maybe above average but a whole world away from people who are really masters in their fields. The only things maybe are baking or stuff related to things I already know but are more specialized. I am often underestimate the time or dext or experience skill I need when I work with new materials/programs I don't know. When I learn something new in a field thats similar to fields I am very knowlageable in I always have really high expectations of myself that I have to instantly be good at it and ignore the "scale learning" aspect of stuff.
This is very interesting but why did you edit sound of background music louder than the human speech? That's a bit counterproductive and quite annoying ;p
Why after hearing this do i remeber them doing this to everyone in primary school age 10 roughly