Folding Top Set in a $1M+ Pot? (Poker Vlogger's WILD Bluff Analyzed)

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  • čas přidán 14. 09. 2023
  • Phil Galfond analyzes wild poker vlogger Ethan "Rampage" Yau, as he tries one of the biggest bluffs in televised poker history on Hustler Casino Live's Million Dollar Game. What was he thinking bluffing against top set?
    🌟 Become an ELITE Poker Player: ➡️ galfond.link/EliteTraining
    Phil Galfond is back with another high stakes pro review of a poker hand played on the Hustler Casino Live’s Million Dollar Game.
    It’s a high stakes match-up for the ages in this legendary poker hand - Ethan ‘Rampage’ Yau battles the enigmatic 'Handz' (special shoutout to Pav!) while playing $500/$1000 $2K BB Ante No Limit Hold ‘em over $850,000 deep.
    Many important poker concepts come into play in this ultra deepstack high stakes poker hand, stick around to hear Phil’s key poker strategy takeaways.
    The HCL Million Dollar Cash Game Week had TONS of ultra high stakes poker action including hands just like Rampage Poker bluffing vs Handz all-in for 618k such as: LSG Hank betting nearly one MILLION dollars vs Doug Polk’s Pocket Aces, Wesley ‘Wes Side’ Fei and LSG Hank playing a $2.25 million dollar pot, and more -- not to mention exciting poker hands featuring Alan Keating, Rob Yong, Tony G, Haralabos Voulgaris, Stanley Tang, Aussie Matt, Jean Robert Bellande (JRB), Charles, Huss, Nik Airball, and Blankcheck Ben!
    Make sure to check out the links below for the source videos on Hustler Casino Live if you want more super high stakes poker hands!
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    HCL highlight From this high stakes live stream - $1 MILLION BUYIN! Rampage, Nik Airball, Tony G, Wesley, Handz, Stanley Tang! THE MILLION DOLLAR GAME: • $1 MILLION BUYIN! Ramp...
    Original high stakes poker highlights also found on HCL - Biggest Bluff in Poker TV History?!? Rampage SHOVES ALL IN in Million Dollar Game: • Biggest Bluff in Poker...
    Follow the Players here:
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    Credits:
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Komentáře • 205

  • @PhilGalfond
    @PhilGalfond  Před 8 měsíci +20

    My 44-page Mindset Strategy Playbook is free to all of you! -> philgalfond.com/mindset

    • @marlofeliciano4800
      @marlofeliciano4800 Před 8 měsíci

      Got this downloaded and saved on my drive. Thanks, Phil!

    • @timdawn705
      @timdawn705 Před 8 měsíci

      Page 45: How to criticize someone the best way possible while at the same time making great content, even though it is two cards too little and 7 players too many?

  • @kingsally2864
    @kingsally2864 Před 8 měsíci +53

    I always give alot of credit to handz, the guy always finds himself in the weirdest spots and he always acts like a consummate professional

    • @kamenlane8858
      @kamenlane8858 Před 2 měsíci

      That’s what happens when you make bad decisions at the table. For example, re-raise pre woulda changed everything in his favor.

  • @onthebeach8211
    @onthebeach8211 Před 8 měsíci +29

    Aww Phil so innocent thinking Rampage puts any high level thought into hands. He got as deep as "i've got a straight blocker" but he was level 2 thinking max

  • @goodguycwyzz4768
    @goodguycwyzz4768 Před 8 měsíci +38

    If Handz even watched 1 Rampage video he would’ve made the easiest snap call of his life

    • @wfchannel4673
      @wfchannel4673 Před 8 měsíci +7

      yeah, if rampage actually had ak he would check it down. he only bets when he doesn't have it.

    • @kjr3429
      @kjr3429 Před 8 měsíci

      @@wfchannel4673 seems like 95%+ of the time the players are betting big when they don’t have it.

  • @kc7818
    @kc7818 Před 8 měsíci +60

    I think a really important part of this hand is the fact that Rampage isn't regularly buying in for $1m, and was heavily staked in this game. I'm convinced Handz just didn't believe that he was capable of taking this line and risking $850k (most of which was given to him by his fans, friends, and backers) with a bluff here. Losing all that money in a cooler is one thing, but punting it off trying to run a huge bluff could piss off a lot of people. At the very least I'm sure it played a role in Handz's thought process, and I'll bet that if this was a normal $50/$100 HCL game he'd call down here
    I wouldn't be surprised if Rampage was also thinking about this - if people think he's not going to risk his stack without the nuts, pulling off an otherwise suicidal bluff like this would actually be profitable.

    • @pugsnhogz
      @pugsnhogz Před 8 měsíci +6

      I think Rampage is just a fucking beast when it comes to commitment in the moment. He's improved a lot strategically but I'm sure he'd admit theory is still far from his strength. The kid succeeds because his balls are approximately the size of a propane grill.

    • @jakecooper5855
      @jakecooper5855 Před 8 měsíci +7

      @@pugsnhogz He succeeds because he is fully staked and his mentality feels no guilt in losing other people's money. It's a freedom not many players have, both with access to free money and a complete lack of morals in losing it.

    • @Great_PatBingsoo
      @Great_PatBingsoo Před 8 měsíci +3

      Cope harder, Jake.

    • @glennhagstedt
      @glennhagstedt Před 8 měsíci +2

      @@Great_PatBingsoo Jake is spot on though, nontheless it takes alot of balls to pull it off, but in the end its easier to play with other peoples money if you have that kind of mentality.

    • @ariera9873
      @ariera9873 Před 8 měsíci

      ​​@@jakecooper5855♠️Rampage♥️♣️♦️ 'doomers', it seems you have your facts turned around. Wasn't it the players and pros who got upset when Ethan was majority staked for one bullet in high $ tourni and bombed early only to rebuy with 100% of himself to go on and win the whole damn thing? He felt bad for having lost all the thousands $'s from investors (1st🎟) that when he won w/ 2nd 🎟 he gave investors their stake $➕ % they would have won. It made the majority of Pros (& others) angry because nobody does that. He genuinely felt that 'giving' away HIS thousands was the right thing to do. Was under no pressure, had no commitment, and was definitely not obligated to do so. It's one of those "°Be Better" things that more people not only need to see, but need to do. Now, now, don't mind the °punny...☻👍

  • @jondan3798
    @jondan3798 Před 8 měsíci +30

    The HCL Factor is tough. Have to imagine it's very hard to balance theory versus practicality when playing in these games. Guess that's why watching them is entertaining

    • @ahaaha8462
      @ahaaha8462 Před 8 měsíci

      What is theory here? Your theory is a methodology of optimization given your estimation of your opponent’s strategy based on observable information. If your data collection process is inaccurate, careless, biased or clearly misled by your opponent, the optimization part is irrelevant

    • @stupidguy97
      @stupidguy97 Před 7 měsíci +1

      @ahaaha8462 Can you try not writing like a retahd?

  • @monsieurzuid
    @monsieurzuid Před 8 měsíci +1

    Very nice to have the concept of Hand analysis made more entertaining (and clear) with the video after effects.

  • @mangohavoc6428
    @mangohavoc6428 Před 8 měsíci +1

    These videos are amazing Phil. Your insight seems very grounded and put into words very well. I wanna see a lot more of these, kudos to you sir.

  • @tiddlewink101
    @tiddlewink101 Před 8 měsíci +3

    “In theory I fold QQ on the river…in practice I never play QQ this way up to the river”
    Nice video and defo agree with final thoughts…mindset (and bankroll management) are key factors to success and as the stakes increase, so does the requirement for stronger mental game / bankroll in alignment

  • @digitaldavid5633
    @digitaldavid5633 Před 8 měsíci

    GREAT VIDEO!! Loved this type of analysis. Watching a couple times. Very helpful. Cheers

  • @squeedwardspanch5594
    @squeedwardspanch5594 Před 8 měsíci +3

    Phil, I want to thank you for uploading videos in such intelligent and informative way. I am not a beginner, and maybe not every video gave a lot new info, but it still helps me to approve my thoughts process to myself. Sorry for not great English, but tried to give you a credit. Go on and good luck)

  • @marlofeliciano4800
    @marlofeliciano4800 Před 8 měsíci +6

    Liked and Subscribed. Can't expect any less from this high quality analysis. Looking forward for the next one!

  • @mohsenk1438
    @mohsenk1438 Před 8 měsíci

    As Always Fantastic analyses.Only HH review I watch. Top Nutch my man.. After dominating the educational side if poker, It's lovely to see you got the same talent and work ethic on Content as well Mr Galfond. GOAT ❤️

  • @brianpotter2812
    @brianpotter2812 Před 8 měsíci +4

    He did this for one reason and one reason only...Handz has been torched on this show and he plays VERY cautiously, almost mouse-like and very nitty at times. Rampage knows this and took advantage with the aggression. If Rampage puts Handz on a set, well then bravo for still proceeding. Against Doug or another player who calls more lightly or splashes around a bit, I think Rampage gives up. He played the player, not the cards.

  • @karagiannis_dimitris
    @karagiannis_dimitris Před 8 měsíci +4

    Thank you for the free book Phil and all of your content! Always appreciated!

  • @houdinihir9549
    @houdinihir9549 Před 8 měsíci +5

    You always explain poker hands better than most.

  • @pr1metime.
    @pr1metime. Před 8 měsíci +11

    Well executed bluff by Rampage using bet sizing to find out where his opponent is at and representing AK all the way with a blocker. While I do think that Rampage c-bets the flop with AK more often than not, check-raising the flop with AK isn't an outrage line either imo with AK. Oversized turn bet and jam river stand out because anything smaller (i.e. half pot turn bet and 2/3 river bet) would've been looked up by Handz.

    • @PhilGalfond
      @PhilGalfond  Před 8 měsíci +1

      Agreed!

    • @tonyzhang1330
      @tonyzhang1330 Před 8 měsíci +1

      Bro, what are you talking about... Ablocker??? First, u should assume ur opponent's preflop range, and that should not include AK so the A doesn't do anything. It's probably better off having a 9 since it blocks K9 and 89. Secondly, the overpot size on the turn would've already made Hans fold majority of his two pairs (and he should not have any sets to begin with), leaving him with only straights. So do you want to bluff (even overbet shove) into a range full of K9 and 89? If you ask rampage that, I'm almost certain he's not gonna bluff that so he was indeed not clear about where he was.

    • @pr1metime.
      @pr1metime. Před 8 měsíci

      @@tonyzhang1330 Handz had QQ's there. He could've had AK too. Less likely since Rampage had an A. Sure 89K would've been better blockers. Moves the math teeny tiny bit either way.

    • @tonyzhang1330
      @tonyzhang1330 Před 8 měsíci

      @@pr1metime. I think the biggest difference, which Phil outlined, is the assumption that Handz have QQ AK in his range to begin with.

    • @pr1metime.
      @pr1metime. Před 8 měsíci

      @@tonyzhang1330 Yeah and therefore Phil personally wouldn't have bluffed in that spot. I get it. But I think Rampage had a good idea of where Handz was at and that he would lay down hands like a set. And it made it tiny bit easier he had the A there as a blocker.

  • @danpopko8010
    @danpopko8010 Před 8 měsíci +2

    It's hard to balance calling ranges when factoring Spaz Equity.

  • @KiiroiSenko1
    @KiiroiSenko1 Před 8 měsíci +16

    Great video as usual with great editing. But all I could think about is watching PG on a big HCL stream!

    • @PhilGalfond
      @PhilGalfond  Před 8 měsíci +11

      Maybe one day!

    • @GodzillaIMC
      @GodzillaIMC Před 8 měsíci

      ​@@PhilGalfondmake it soon.😊 Free money for you there.

    • @Eggroll_kinggg
      @Eggroll_kinggg Před 8 měsíci +2

      PG doesn’t qualify in Hcl players type lol they want bad players only

  • @18000rpm
    @18000rpm Před 8 měsíci

    Excellent analysis PLUS a free ebook whaaat

  • @qsdailydose8970
    @qsdailydose8970 Před 8 měsíci

    So excited phil is going over this hand!

  • @zxdevoutxz
    @zxdevoutxz Před 8 měsíci

    Nice editing, great content

  • @galaxybrainclips
    @galaxybrainclips Před 8 měsíci

    Hi, is recording your preflop all-in win percentage a helpful stat in terms of measuring your long term success and EV? Hope someone answers, thanks!

  • @johnristheanswer
    @johnristheanswer Před 8 měsíci +7

    Next time I'm in a $1m pot I'll remember this analysis. Thank you.

    • @urbrt2653
      @urbrt2653 Před 8 měsíci

      You saying this happens often for you?

    • @mcpartridgeboy
      @mcpartridgeboy Před 5 měsíci

      @@urbrt2653 ww you play microstakes ? most of my pots are at least 100m $ , zimbabwei $ that is

    • @user-bx9ri2qv3y
      @user-bx9ri2qv3y Před 3 měsíci

      @@urbrt2653it’s a joke

    • @Matzes
      @Matzes Před 2 měsíci

      I play 1m pots on my weekly poker game. Sadly I live in indonesia and we use rupiah so 1m is like 50 bucks

    • @Ihave10billionsubs
      @Ihave10billionsubs Před 11 dny

      ​@@Matzes😂

  • @borg972
    @borg972 Před 8 měsíci

    Finally! Thanks for analyzing and explaining this hand, it got way too much result oriented praises for bad plays 😺😺

  • @Hinoahgray
    @Hinoahgray Před 8 měsíci +6

    Phil PLEASE play an HCL stream!

  • @Frozkadurrr
    @Frozkadurrr Před 8 měsíci

    Great analazys phil. Were so lucky to get this content for free ❤

  • @Arthemis06
    @Arthemis06 Před 8 měsíci +4

    Rampage is the goat. Going from 2/5$ to bluff 1Million river bet in a so short period is amazing. The river pot is too big to not attempt to steal and for me it was worth the shot no doubt. The handz attitude is clearly saying i am not nutted here

    • @samuraijack1371
      @samuraijack1371 Před 8 měsíci

      But that’s a very rudimentary way of thinking of strategy. Pot is big, he is showing weakness so I’ll make a million $ bluff. Hmmmm, maybe it worked now. What are you going to do next time?

    • @pugsnhogz
      @pugsnhogz Před 8 měsíci +1

      @@samuraijack1371 do it again and level them lol, it's DGAF approved

  • @rudolfpaluch9333
    @rudolfpaluch9333 Před 8 měsíci

    Great video Phil 👍👏👏👏 thanks

  • @ptaeiy
    @ptaeiy Před 8 měsíci +36

    He is the GOAT punter afterall.

    • @CH-bp3bj
      @CH-bp3bj Před 8 měsíci +1

      Is it really a punt if he won the hand? Not being sarcastic.

    • @wesleykorisky8600
      @wesleykorisky8600 Před 8 měsíci

      @CH-bp3bj
      That is an actual debate and considers a whole lot more than just the factor that he's repping AK in an awkward way. His hand looks like exactly what it is as played imo, but there are so many more factors going on that contribute to hand reading in this spot. Nobody wants to to be the first to dust off a million bucks in one bullet on live TV. That's a huge factor that played a big role in how the game developed over the four days.

    • @nollie4062
      @nollie4062 Před 8 měsíci

      @@CH-bp3bjit was a joke

    • @3piecebamboobridge
      @3piecebamboobridge Před 8 měsíci

      Again with this comment? How many among you using this

  • @Chris-si4ox
    @Chris-si4ox Před 8 měsíci +1

    Handz loses to:
    16 combos K9
    16 combos 89
    16 combos AK
    Handz beats:
    ~60 realistic flush draws miss (dd & cc)
    3 combos TT
    3 combos JJ
    16 combos A9
    48 hands - lose
    82 hands - beat
    Win 63% of time
    Need to be right 36% of time to call
    => It’s a call
    Even if you want to give only 20 flush draw combos it’s still a call when looking at combinatorics. You can come up with a lot more bluffs here if you want to include pair + straight draws also

    • @wfchannel4673
      @wfchannel4673 Před 8 měsíci +1

      i'd also probably put the case queen in rampage's range for more combos handz can beat. kq and q9 have the blockers to consider bluffing and qj is still top two. but good analysis.

    • @Chris-si4ox
      @Chris-si4ox Před 8 měsíci

      I just wish Handz had tanked longer ... because when you really think it through the line is so bluff heavy@@wfchannel4673

  • @dealerG
    @dealerG Před 8 měsíci +1

    Here is the problem with the flop logic, if Rampage can't credibly rep AK because he check-raised the flop then Handz actually can't have a straight given he check-called because it's *FAR* worse to initially check K9 or 98 on that board than AK. Handz' range after the check-call is heavily weighted toward two-pair or a combo draw, then on the turn Rampage eliminated all KQ combos with the overbet barring KcQc. So actually, Handz range by the river contains some check-called straights on the flop which are all calls on the river, including 98, KcQc which is a call because of the K blocker, and literally everything else like QQ-TT, two-pairs, AdTd and KdTd which are all folds.

  • @SpaceMonkey616
    @SpaceMonkey616 Před 8 měsíci

    Love your content 🙂

  • @cletus2941
    @cletus2941 Před 8 měsíci +9

    in your analysis, you didn't factor in that Handz never wins a pot :)

  • @ticenits1926
    @ticenits1926 Před 8 měsíci +1

    I also feel like an important question here is from the perspective of Hans, what does my hand look like? It looks like a missed draw or maybe two pair at best. Would your opponent rampage actually value jam against this range? I don't think so. I feel like rampage would go for a 1/3 PSB to get those hands to call. But what do I know this is nosebleed stakes

    • @wfchannel4673
      @wfchannel4673 Před 8 měsíci

      yeah, handz's hand looks like something like kq, kj, q9, or j9. a good pair with a straight draw. since he can beat two pair that should push him towards calling.

  • @williamhubel4643
    @williamhubel4643 Před 8 měsíci +1

    89 and K9 were very believable for Rampage to have and he could have taken that line with those hands

  • @dustyguadian7570
    @dustyguadian7570 Před 8 měsíci

    Love your channel! Could rampage check raise with JJ?
    If possible could you also do some hands from the great game of PLO .

  • @renocool1558
    @renocool1558 Před 5 měsíci

    I try not to play deep stack enough to where I'd consider folding top set with 3 to str and no flush on board. Would've raised on turn at the latest. Worst case I at least have outs to a FH

  • @Hinoahgray
    @Hinoahgray Před 8 měsíci +2

    I wanna see some live phil action so bad

  • @xWayne1991x
    @xWayne1991x Před 8 měsíci +2

    It sounds like Phil somehow knows Rampage is bluffing. Absolutely amazing intuition.

  • @shuqunteo1778
    @shuqunteo1778 Před 8 měsíci

    should I gamble my nut flush draw if my opponent overbets pot all in on the flop? pot 500, villian bets 1k per say..

  • @seqranger1
    @seqranger1 Před 8 měsíci

    This is such an interesting hand mainly because of how unorthodox some of the plays are. I stopped the video before the conclusion of the hand to write this so I do not know if Handz calls or not yet. I'm going to skip to the river decision as to not bore you. In my opinion, because Rampage should not have as much AK and K9 due to his flop check, his then polarized turn sizing when the board is a double flush board, and now his polarizing river shove, I feel he will have too many bluffs and it forces QQ to call. I agree that it is not great to not have a K in our hand but I think this particular decision comes down to the range that rampage arrives at the river with. If we are going to discount his nut combos and then consider the amount of semi-bluffs available with us unblocking all semi-bluffs including not having the Q of clubs, I think we just have to close our eyes and call. It is also relavent to consider that Rampage does not give us QQ, JJ, or TT. When he is bluffing here I think he is trying to bluff 1 pair + draw, like ATdd, and 2 pair holdings. At the end of the day I think he very rarely arrives at the river with AK based on how the hand played out. Obviously this is easy for me to say sitting at home not risking a million dollars but it is my honest opinion based on my poker theory and experience. "Edit" Now that I've seen the conclusion. I agree that it is extremely rare these days to see someone bluff off a giant stack like that and I can seriously see why someone would fold QQ here. Difficult spot for Handz, sick play by Rampage.

    • @PhilGalfond
      @PhilGalfond  Před 8 měsíci +1

      I like your analysis overall, but be careful about the flop read.
      Rampage is saying that he has AK or K9 when he raises flop and big bets turn, so even if we don't expect him to check the flop with them often, we have to now take them a lot more seriously.

  • @MrDaltontrumbo
    @MrDaltontrumbo Před 8 měsíci +1

    Is this a good reason to not flat call with Qs pre flop? Because you don't really get a lot of info on how strong rampage is? If you 3 bet, and Rampage calls or 4 bets you could definitely put him on AK (prob 4 bet with AK), but the flat with Qs leaves you with little info. Or am I thinking about this wrong?

    • @williamdavis2505
      @williamdavis2505 Před 8 měsíci

      Yes. And once you underrep it you should lean more towards calling (even raising) especially against a punter like Rampage. Handz should 3-bet the flop.
      I wonder if Rampage would have shipped on the end if the board paired.

    • @Mathemagical55
      @Mathemagical55 Před 8 měsíci

      You have a flatting range and a raising range. Whether QQ is the top of your flatting range or the bottom of your (value) raises doesn't really matter.

    • @wfchannel4673
      @wfchannel4673 Před 8 měsíci

      i like the flat pre. raising looks too strong. i hate the flat on the flop though. you flopped top set in a cash game. check raise it all in on the flop and if you get called request to run it twice if you're that scared you got outflopped.

  • @MrJoosebawkz
    @MrJoosebawkz Před 8 měsíci +1

    I made $100 off this game. the only time i ever staked or even gambled on anything that wasnt myself in a poker game lol. I put $300 on Rampage bc i felt he makes more than 10% his buy in at HCL and was the best performing player of the lineup when staking was open. But let me tell you when this hand was playing out I thought I made a huge mistake 😂

  • @sjwgenius7347
    @sjwgenius7347 Před 8 měsíci +2

    To someone who has been known for punting I will never fold a strong hand like top set here. You have to play the player not the theory or range at live poker especially. If he has that 5% of the time he actually got it then so be it but folding top set against an aggressive opponent like that is too tight to me

  • @Devillionaire
    @Devillionaire Před 8 měsíci +2

    The hand was perfect right up until the moment he showed his cards. THAT was weak sauce, given that the hand was televised and everyone at the table would know what he had later anyway. Keeping his cards facedown woulda added to the aura and table presence of him being a tough opponent as opposed to some fish who's overly proud of themselves for a random bluff they just pulled off. Suffice it to say, Ivey or Dwan wouldn't have shown the bluff right then and there. For example, Durrr bluffs Ivey (the 8/9s hand on High Stakes Poker) in the biggest televised bluff ever at the time, and doesn't say a thing about his hand or show his cards, causing Phil Laak to comment on the mystique and intimidation of playing against Durrr. Likewise Ivey is well-known for bluffing people out of their shoes and never batting an eye or showing any cards.

    • @wfchannel4673
      @wfchannel4673 Před 8 měsíci

      handz signals for rampage to show him and he's probably better off obliging him and not looking like a jerk, even though it gives him a super loose image and means he'll likely have to tighten up his game the rest of the night.

  • @Robert-wb8ok
    @Robert-wb8ok Před 8 měsíci

    Someone help what site can I play for real money in Arizona???

  • @jalapenonhabaneron8223
    @jalapenonhabaneron8223 Před 8 měsíci

    Phil, which online poker client has been your favourite during all the years?

  • @MrJoosebawkz
    @MrJoosebawkz Před 8 měsíci +2

    kind of crazy odds. with a fold he profits $200k and with a call he loses $1mil

    • @subaction
      @subaction Před 8 měsíci

      the potential net profit or loss of the entire hand does not matter or relate to the odds, because money put into the pot no longer belongs to a player. the river bet can only be correctly described as a risk of 620k to win 495k.

  • @Chris-si4ox
    @Chris-si4ox Před 8 měsíci +2

    his whole line screams missed diamonds from an aggro LAG

  • @a0kca1p
    @a0kca1p Před 8 měsíci

    Rampage is breathing so heavy on that final bet! He setttled a little bit by the time that Handz looked over. If Handz looked at him the whole way, he might have picked up the tell.

  • @pokersoftwarereviews5051
    @pokersoftwarereviews5051 Před 8 měsíci +1

    I think this hand was pretty reasonable. Basically Rampage figured that no one plays AK in this way, so therefore he can just rep AK.

  • @Bobbyyy123
    @Bobbyyy123 Před 8 měsíci +1

    How do you fold this against rampage? Has he not studied his opponent?

  • @Pokerfarhang
    @Pokerfarhang Před 8 měsíci +1

    deep stack poker is hard!

  • @gerrilla
    @gerrilla Před 8 měsíci

    @PhilGalfond I love your videos and you are always very insightful.
    However, you keep saying rampage isn't representing much, but on flop/turn you did say he would play AK this way.
    He is 100% representing AK and would play AK this way. He's not representing much other than AK, but he is representing it hard, and how many bluffs could rampage really have here? And how often would he really be able to pull the trigger, this deep?
    Like you said, handz in theory could have K9 and 89, possibly sometimes AK but less often. This makes rampage's barrel even stronger, because he's essentially saying "IDGAF that you can have K9, I'm betting anyways"
    I think the decision for rampage to continue on the river is spot on, and the fold by handz is really fine. Very tough to find a call here if you are a good player, and I think worse players call because they get married to the set. They win in this instance and lose in 9 others.

  • @jamiestewart3452
    @jamiestewart3452 Před 8 měsíci

    When Handz gets to the river with hands better than Rampage’s hands, maybe you have to call your hand but generally I’m not playing hands for 1M. So hard to fold Handz hand against other hands when you’ve under repped your hand.

  • @Egoinpokeregobroke
    @Egoinpokeregobroke Před 8 měsíci

    Would you ever consider playing in that game? Or in a hustler game?

  • @pontus3142
    @pontus3142 Před 8 měsíci

    Love the analysis.
    How many bluffs does Rampage have here? 7c doesn't interact with the board, so is he doing this with every Ax of clubs? Maybe not AQ or AJ, but that's still 8 bluffing hands. It would be a big mistake to bet every diamond draw on the flop (as then his checking range will be capped), so does he take this line with some Ax of diamonds too? And there are some other hands you might want to take this line with, like A9o with the Ace of diamonds, K8cc, K8dd, etc - he's in the small blind so his opening range is pretty wide. The bluffs add up quickly.
    Let's grant for argument's sake that Rampage will x/r AK on the flop 50% of the time to protect his checking range (seems high to me, but I'm trying to be generous). That gives him 8 value hands. Yes, some of the bluffing hands I identify above will c-bet the flop, but even so, I find it hard to believe Rampage is balanced.

    • @wfchannel4673
      @wfchannel4673 Před 8 měsíci

      rampage also has aa and kk or worse sets in his x/r range. while he does have all 16 combos of ak in his range, he has way more combos of bluffs.

    • @pontus3142
      @pontus3142 Před 8 měsíci

      @@wfchannel4673 It's not just the flop x/r, it's the overbets on turn and river which should be highly polarised. Big mistake to take this whole line with an inferior set, when you only get called by better.

    • @wfchannel4673
      @wfchannel4673 Před 8 měsíci

      @@pontus3142 i kinda overlook the turn and river bets because this is a cash game and i think handz biggest mistake is not jamming over rampage's flop bet and running it twice if called. he's a 2-1 dog if rampage has the straight but a 3-1 favorite if rampage has anything else and that equity edge is what he should be exploiting with his top set. i also feel when calling the flop you've already made your decision about whether you believe rampage's line and are mining for a boat or don't believe it and are calling down.

  • @jadenspeiser3221
    @jadenspeiser3221 Před 8 měsíci +2

    While I am not even close to a good enough poker player to sniff Phil I disagree with him saying that rampages line isn’t credible. I remember watching this steam live and Pav would be betting everything, even when he had no back doors or draws. Hence, I think that this incentivizes rampage to get a check raise in on the flop with a hand like K9 or AK. In general he would be betting with his K9 and AK but in the flow of the game I think the check raise makes more sense

    • @wfchannel4673
      @wfchannel4673 Před 8 měsíci +1

      i think handz needs to reraise on flop. by check-calling the flop, rampage's line becomes credible. if handz reraises and isn't reraised, handz should know he's good, but by just calling he lets rampage take a credible ak line on the turn and river (which rampage does).

    • @ryanonvr2267
      @ryanonvr2267 Před 8 měsíci

      @@wfchannel4673 exactly. Maybe even AI. Worst cast, you are 36%

    • @jadenspeiser3221
      @jadenspeiser3221 Před 8 měsíci

      I think the issue comes when he doesn’t 3bet pre. You can could call AA sometimes but QQ wants to 3bet for sure

  • @jakecooper5855
    @jakecooper5855 Před 8 měsíci +2

    The biggest factor, which was not covered, is that Handz always turns into the biggest nit when playing for stacks. He consistently folds when facing all in calls. I bet he folds K9 too because he is playing scared at these stakes. That's the difference with rampage. He has been staked from the beginning and he feels no guilt in losing other people's money, which lets him play without fear. When you aren't risking anything of your own and have no morals with other people's money you can play like a hero all the time.

  • @well.thy.one.
    @well.thy.one. Před 8 měsíci +1

    This is where my slightly more advanced analysis of "i got top fuckin set, bish" tends to pay off.

  • @laartwork
    @laartwork Před 8 měsíci +1

    My thinking is wouldn't he bet half pot if he wants a call? What did he think I have that he thinks I will call? Felt like a punt. But it's a lot of money and not my money. But this is a hero call spot.

    • @wfchannel4673
      @wfchannel4673 Před 8 měsíci

      yeah... i don't fold in this spot as handz, but i'm also not in this spot as handz as i would reraise rampage on the flop (possible i fold if rampage rereraises me though, but i think i can run it twice here and would shove and request to do that if rereraised).

  • @taranuandrei991
    @taranuandrei991 Před 8 měsíci

    That "fun" part with handz callin with qq(on rampage check on flop segment) is...unnecesarry!

  • @bronzeknieschijf
    @bronzeknieschijf Před 8 měsíci +1

    Solid analysis . Terrible bluff, reasonable fold.

    • @PhilGalfond
      @PhilGalfond  Před 8 měsíci +2

      Not sure I'd go that far on "terrible" but glad you enjoyed it!

    • @tonyzhang1330
      @tonyzhang1330 Před 8 měsíci +1

      @@PhilGalfond My opinion is that unless rampage thinks Handz is flatting overpairs preflop (now sets on river), it was a terrible bluff. The way to define terrible is: if rampage knows he's bluffing into a range full of 89s and K9s, does he still bluff? I highly doubt that's the case, so it was indeed a "non-well-thought-out" bluff, just bluffed because.

    • @betmowinmo1292
      @betmowinmo1292 Před 8 měsíci

      @@tonyzhang1330I agree. I think rampage sees missed draws and is praying handz has something like KQ and will fold. I applaud him for going from 2/5 to 7 figure pots in a couple years but I think people give him too much credit (at least here).

    • @wfchannel4673
      @wfchannel4673 Před 8 měsíci

      @@tonyzhang1330 yeah, i don't think rampage thinks handz is that strong. he thinks handz has maybe qj at the top of his range and more likely a k or 9 (but not both) with a pair.

  • @altcome
    @altcome Před 8 měsíci +2

    I actually think Rampage x/r AK here is very credible given that there’s a whale in the 3rd blind who would over stab, which he did😂

  • @kjr3429
    @kjr3429 Před 8 měsíci +2

    Crazy fold. Honestly, probably just the amount of money involved got him scared/nervous. But if Handz really believed Rampage had a hand that could beat him, he should’ve folded on the flop or even the turn. It kinda doesn’t make sense to call every street and then give up, especially since the board didn’t improve to the only hands that could beat a set of Qs.

    • @wfchannel4673
      @wfchannel4673 Před 8 měsíci +2

      yeah, with specifically a spade and a heart in his hand handz should call. way too many flushes miss that river.

    • @eb3433
      @eb3433 Před 8 měsíci

      @@wfchannel4673oh true good point there . The two missed flush types

  • @kamenlane8858
    @kamenlane8858 Před 2 měsíci

    That’s what happens when you make bad decisions at the table. For example, re-raise pre woulda changed everything in his favor.

  • @blazeron12
    @blazeron12 Před 8 měsíci +6

    It's always interesting to me when someone is trapping but then the person they are trapping starts betting bigger than the trapper bargained for and they get scared. I might say something like "well, if you got it you got it" before I call but I'm never folding top set here.

    • @cashton745
      @cashton745 Před 8 měsíci +2

      calling here is a complete torch

    • @PhilGalfond
      @PhilGalfond  Před 8 měsíci +6

      Yeah, once they start repping stronger than your trap, it's no longer a trap!

  • @berdyderg900
    @berdyderg900 Před 8 měsíci +1

    Much easier to run these kind of bluffs when the money is all from your shady rake trap app games 😅

  • @ijustwannaleaveacommentony6511

    what is hans!?

  • @drommeprins1
    @drommeprins1 Před 7 měsíci

    Here you are only analyzing the hands like there is two robots playin😇. Phil you are the greatest. But Handz has a weak passive playing style and we have both seen this happen to him many times. Maybe not nice to speak about players like that on youtube but its fax! And about Rampage he is more a loose aggressive kind of player. I would allways play the player not only the game🙌

  • @nickr4837
    @nickr4837 Před 8 měsíci

    damn, showed it too . . 💀

  • @TheSherlockHomez
    @TheSherlockHomez Před 8 měsíci +1

    Dude... All these hands where Hands gets bluffed always start with him limping a huge pocket pair... When will he learn???

  • @ijustwannaleaveacommentony6511
    @ijustwannaleaveacommentony6511 Před 8 měsíci +1

    jam and run twice. simples

  • @pyrok007
    @pyrok007 Před 8 měsíci +2

    So many draws missed, I’m not good enough to fold top set here

    • @Shipdacheese
      @Shipdacheese Před 8 měsíci +1

      Nobody is unless you are playing for 1.5m+ pots. Unless you become that rich that you don't care.

  • @reezellthia
    @reezellthia Před 8 měsíci

    Is Rampage never betting worse for value? eg. TT or JJ. Shouldn't that factor in whether to make the call

    • @PhilGalfond
      @PhilGalfond  Před 8 měsíci

      I don't think so, no. Too many bets went in.

    • @tonyzhang1330
      @tonyzhang1330 Před 8 měsíci

      Nope, if u played poker long enough, then u know this line's only representing straights. The way u can think about this is, the bigger the bet size, the less u have to defend ur range. And because of the two sizes, mathematically u r only leaving ur opponent with straigths. Checkout MDF (min defense freq).

  • @DoyleTheExplorer
    @DoyleTheExplorer Před 8 měsíci

    Have you ever played with Handz Phil?

  • @TheFluffypanda808
    @TheFluffypanda808 Před 8 měsíci

    I’ll remember this hand for the rest of my life

  • @DeezLouize
    @DeezLouize Před 8 měsíci

    If that was Keating he would had called 😅

  • @absolutedegenerat3372
    @absolutedegenerat3372 Před 8 měsíci +2

    Solver actually folds 100% of the time🥶

  • @victorburnett6329
    @victorburnett6329 Před 8 měsíci

    Rampage is going to get cleaned out faster than a school locker in June. I saw Brad Booth doing this crazy ish and went innawoods to hide from all his debts.

  • @edwardkain5006
    @edwardkain5006 Před 8 měsíci

    I think it’s a $2,000 ante not a straddle

  • @Alexandertygreat
    @Alexandertygreat Před 8 měsíci

    The other huge part of this, rampage only has a small piece of himself. Its easier to bomb off when it isnt all your money.

  • @Qbinho7
    @Qbinho7 Před 8 měsíci

    its a mistake af not to call that xD he must to know that pav have some king range if he bet first after flop

  • @kamikazefireball
    @kamikazefireball Před 8 měsíci +2

    How many big blinds did that fresh set of teeth cost? 😁

  • @mmfb88
    @mmfb88 Před 8 měsíci

    Well if he’s spazzing off with hands like A7 we obviously can never fold, especially unblocking diamonds

  • @Chris-si4ox
    @Chris-si4ox Před 8 měsíci

    So every draw misses and he folds top set against a super capable opponent in blind vs blind… given how good Galfond is I don’t think there’s any way he would have actually folded top set in a live environment here. We know Rampage is major aggro so will be attacking Handz WIDE, ie will be turning up to the river with a tonne of bluffs, it’s just a sigh-call. I’m not sure who played the hand worse Rampage or Handz

  • @paigow1965
    @paigow1965 Před 8 měsíci

    Terrible fold by Handz. He shows weakness to get action when he has a big hand, his opponents sense weakness and bet into him just as he lured them to, then he reads the bet as a great hand and folds even when his opponent’s line makes no sense. Clearly if Rampage had the nuts, he would bet less to get value.

  • @yoenm65
    @yoenm65 Před 8 měsíci

    He could also play ATd and T9d the same way…

  • @orwbarcelona01
    @orwbarcelona01 Před 8 měsíci +1

    Handz as usual the biggest nit at the table.

  • @nicholi2789
    @nicholi2789 Před 8 měsíci +1

    Handz put himself in another terrible spot by playing terribly. Shocker.

  • @peterorosz9278
    @peterorosz9278 Před 4 měsíci

    if only poor handz had ever watched Rampage play beforehand he woulda snapped off.

  • @Mathemagical55
    @Mathemagical55 Před 8 měsíci +4

    Rampage has the heart of a lion but the brain of a scarecrow.

  • @Illiadofmalorne
    @Illiadofmalorne Před 8 měsíci

    I think he is repping K9 not AK since hes betting like he needs protection.

    • @altcome
      @altcome Před 8 měsíci +1

      What r u talking about😂 AK needs protection too there’re 2 flush draws on the turn. It’s not like he had quads.

  • @Aliens-Are-Our-Friends2027
    @Aliens-Are-Our-Friends2027 Před 8 měsíci

    HORRIBLE fold vs that opponent.

  • @onlyweatherlol93
    @onlyweatherlol93 Před 8 měsíci

    I will continue to stand by my initial instinct which was that this is a terrible fold by Handz. He was outplayed because he made a clear mistake. Not to be disrespectful to him at all, just outlining what I saw

  • @jesuslovesyou-mattsmith1502
    @jesuslovesyou-mattsmith1502 Před 8 měsíci

    Where did rampage get $1mil to sit down with?

  • @sammancini
    @sammancini Před 8 měsíci +1

    great video Phil as usual. However i think your off the mark on this one given rampage's understanding of Handz which u didnt account for in your analysis. IMO rampage represented a flush draw on the flop, 2 pair on the turn and a stone cold on the river that simple, handz should have worked that out quite easily but the stakes were too high to see that clearly. wouldnt rampage value bet a straight on the river if he had one, which was the only hand Handz would have lost to?

  • @Andre-ef6iv
    @Andre-ef6iv Před 8 měsíci

    4:12 history is that handz is pathetically weak player who overfolds often, easy 3 barrel bluff

  • @EatingCat69
    @EatingCat69 Před 8 měsíci

    He got stakes that's why he play like that