Making Sense Of A Historic British Election | 538 Politics Podcast
Vložit
- čas přidán 3. 07. 2024
- Happy Fourth of July! To celebrate our independence from Great Britain, the 538 Politics podcast is actually turning its attention to the United Kingdom's upcoming election.
The U.K. is holding its first national election in four and a half years on July 4 and the polling suggests the Labour Party will make historic gains, booting Conservatives from power for the first time in 14 years. To get a sense of the forces behind the dramatic shift since 2019, two longtime friends of the podcast weigh in.
Helen Thompson is a professor of political economy at Cambridge University and host of the "These Times" podcast. David Runciman is a professor of politics at Cambridge and host of the podcast "Past Present Future."
Website: fivethirtyeight.com/
Merch: fivethirtyeight.com/store
Twitter: / fivethirtyeight
Facebook: / fivethirtyeight
Podcast: itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/f...
Bring back the video!
Everyone has "known" for some time that this was Labour's election to lose. Certainly the Labour Party did.
They borrowed the Australian Labour Party's strategy in similar circumstances two years ago and decided to adopt a small target approach. By announcing as little policy as possible there was less chance the Conservatives and other parties, but more importantly the right wing press which dominates here, would have anything to take aim at. For that reason there is little you can say about what Labour will do in government
There has also been what's called a Ming Vase strategy ... just don't drop it.
13:00 the draw backs of first past the post voting
Fpp is such a stupid way to conduct elections. I'm not opposed to an elected body having fpp constituentcies to get a gauge for where individual communities are at but only as a small part of a larger broadly proportional body
Your forgot the video
Supermajority: Actually, it's a term from Northern Ireland. And while there are supermajority provisions in the US Constitution for passing amendments and removing the president, the Senate filibuster is not a Constitutional matter but is a matter of Senate rules. The filibuster could be eliminated at the beginning of any new Congress (January 1 of even-numbered years), which is when the Senate adopts its rules for the coming Congressional term.
That's a different thing to the kind of supermajority that's being referred to. Lots of countries have a 2/3 majority to change entrenched legislation
@@catmonarchist8920 The point is that the senatorial filibuster in the US is not Constitutional; that is, it isn't provided for by the Constitution but is instead a matter of the Senate's rules (and has changed over time).
my favourite podcast of yours Gaelan so far.. very insightful
Great show. Frightening final portion
You forgot the video again. Very sloppy.
Tanks🎉
Congratulations Britain on this historic victory. As your reward, we'll look the other way for One Week (7 Days) as you continue interviewing 'Body Language' Experts about Meghan Markle's quest to split up the royal family.
Britian electing its first pro austerity Labour government
Wow... it just can't get any worse !!!!
Why your did not say any thing about lying trump
😢
❤
❤😂🎉
The slam on Biden was a cheap shot and unnecessary in an otherwise professional discussion. While I agree that it probably would've been more prudent to let people know that he was under the weather beforehand, and whoever did his scheduling was criminally stupid having him do an event earlier, after all the international travel, before the debate, you can hardly call it a coverup (unless you're buying into the cheap fakes or conspiracy theories). Biden's performance at the next rally showed that he just had a bad night, and was unlucky that it was debate night. The presidency isn't carried out by just one person, but by a team. Biden's team has a pretty impressive record. With Project 2025 supporters everywhere in positions of power, I want an experienced team at the helm, even if a little less of the work falls directly on Biden's plate.
Please stand down Biden.
god please not starmer, the country will go to hell in a handbasket with that guy at the helm.
The tories have destroyed britain for 14 years, the right wing and brexit have failed. Its time to bring back common sense
Ɓiden is still in charge. He tells rhe truth. He picks the best people. He knows the international leaders; and he knows how the system can work for the most people. He had a bad night. No need to dramatize it forther than that.
He didn't just have a bad night. This is a recurring issue. Please stop attempting to gaslight Americans. You Democrat boomers only see Biden as qualified, because in your old age, he looks younger than he does to a young person. Remember in middle school when you would see an older teen, and they would look like a grown adult? But in your adulthood, you see teenagers and think they look like babies. this is what is essentially happening in your head when you see Biden.
Our 'choices' in a Democracy:
1. A lying felon. Trump
2. An early dementia patient. Biden.
3. An environmental lawyer with a history of standing up for people. Kennedy.
Kennedy/Shanahan '24🇺🇸
Im a lil left of the American 'middle', unwaivering. The democrat party has screwed up ignoring gen X and Z since '16. Too much status quo, its not working anymore for those of us under 55.
Not only that, if you look at the data collected over 60+ years by Professor Allan Lichtman (13 keys), it seems clear that replacing Biden leads to Trump winning. His predictions have been on the money. All that happens when the Dem "inner circle" make a huge deal over a relatively unimportant debate is to make the electorate feel less comfortable with Biden, which is good news for Trump. Biden's policies and team are generally good. Those policies will continue as long as he is re-elected.
He was a walking corpse. Anyone not ideologically possessed can see that it's not sustainable
@catmonarchist8920 Obviously, I disagree. I haven't heard any foreign leaders say he was dysfunctional.