An Important Concept to be Aware of For Long Term Investing
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- čas přidán 22. 08. 2021
- BASEBALL CARD COLLECTOR INVESTOR DEALER (in that order)
Chris Sewall here.
Looking at the card values of some of the top young players in the Game today versus some established HOFers.
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The Herbert rainbow segment, hilarious. Thanks Chris!
I agree and to Collect all those Herbert's you'll probably have to remortgage your house,lol.Especially in PSA 10'S
Absolutely ridiculous. That’s so silly.
its beyond ridic with the parallels
@@vendora1 i know that why I made that comment it a bit much so Topps can make more money on the product.
@@baseballbrownie2628 you mean panini lol but all makers of cards are getting out of hand with it makes getting one feel way less special
Finally the best video for the hobby to see and why i dont care for the "shiny" stuff. Vintage will always be the best investment
Pure coincidence, but if we go back 35 years 3 times...
1916 - 151 Babe Ruth
1951 - Bowman Mickey Mantle / Parkhurst Gordie Howe
1986 - Fleer Michael Jordan
2021 - ??
35 years from now some rookie cards of today will be coveted, shine won't have much of an impact either way.
If history has anything to say, it'll be because of the player's accomplishments.
Yup #facts
Sure the vintage hall of famers are also most expensive, the lucky guys are the ones who’s had them for years.
@@mrp1924 exactly but trust me when I tell you there still out there for cheap! Just gotta find em watch my last upload on my channel and I show and explain more 💪
@@sokoteur360 tom brady
Literally laughed out loud when you were listening off the parallels after like the 40th one! 😂 I recently got back into the hobby and noticed this also. I can’t imagine the majority of these modern cards holding value long term. Thanks for the great content as always!
Anyone remember the Junk Wax days of massive over production? Feeling the Deja Vu...
You lost me after the 3rd or so Herbert parallel - could you start over again from the top 😁
@@adamlee1562 YES....and that's just one, of a few reasons, why there are only a handful of modern cards in my collection.
Having been a dealer back in the late 1980's I can tell you that this advice is so accurate and valuable that it should not be taken lightly. Every year there is someone that is going to make the hall of fame but knowing who that will be is a challenge as pointed out in the video (which you could have added Don Mattingly to the list). May I suggest that splitting the difference and finding players that are in mid career can give you the benefit of both past history and potential future accomplishments to give the upside potential while minimizing risk. Lastly, with the infusion of grading there is a lot of challenges that now exist that did not exist when I first started collecting.
Players mid career lack hype. Hype is everything in the ultra modern sector.
I know people who don’t buy guys with less than 5 years in their sport
pretty spot on.
Been in the hobby 20 years and this has never changed and never made sense to me. Not sure if it's the same people who never learn or just new people buying into the hype
You sir are correct in this reply . 💯
This was absolutely your best video ever. You could have made it 3 hours long, but it was good and concise. Unfortunately, there are lot of gamblers that will not pay attention to your good points.
And they are typically the 'day traders' of the hobby so it won't impact them.
Yea. He fuckkng gets a PSA 10 on this video. A 1/1
Dude that Herbert rookie variation segment was fricken hilarious the amount of prisms is just disgusting! This is the new junk wax era we just don’t realize it yet but we will in 20 years
That Herbert card should be considered a common, not a $600 card.
One additional point is that the pop counts for the modern cards can still double or triple given the grading slowdown. Also remember that the short term flippers are driving the prices so people buying modern today are hoping there are greater fools especially when a player has a good game now. The retired players don’t have that greater fool upside.
Perfect Comment. PSA is doing 25K in cards a month and most are from 2018 to 2021. The pop numbers on those years are going to skyrocket. Couple that with modern collectors being able to protect and store cards way better than in the past, should mean more Gem mints in modern cards than vintage
There's always a greater fool theory with any card.
Excellent points.
As someone who has been a collector for years but trying to figure out just 1 or 2 cards to invest in long term, this video helped a lot. Thank you
You hit the nail on the head, collect what you like. When I worked at a card store, I always told people that, except for one guy i didn't care for, i told him to invest in Paul Assenmacher, i wonder if he still has them.The short term investors always come and go, especially when they start taking losses.
100% spot on, whom ever are buying these current stars at their massively inflated prices and are not flipping for profit will have a rude awakening in the future. Great video…
Finally . Someone who was able to properly educate the unknowing and say all the Things I have been feeling. This new shit. Not sure . 4000 plus luka PSA 10’s. Kinda of a joke . Junk slab era. Thank man. This was a kick ass video . Been collecting since 85
I remember in the mid-late 90s Penny Hardaway cards were 2nd most sought after cards after Jordan.
I have a raw hardaway rookie from back then. Nate
Man I love this guy. He is the absolute truth. All the other you tubers are so heavy on new qbs, unproven qbs. This dude is smart!
100% agree, it's really cool to listen to this guy and come back down to earth after being hyped up on all the other channels.
@@SuperBrewdog exactly!
Long term for me it's sets. ESPECIALLY pre 1981 for baseball, pre 1987 for football, pre 1988 for hockey and pre 1989 for basketball. There's a finite amount of them, they're fun to build and the new stuff is overproduced imho. Safer to stick with vintage.
And unopened wax. 90-91 fleer basketball for example. That shit is way undervalued
@@DanMolden99 Same with 88 Toops Football with Bo Jackson imo. I have hundreds of sets and unopened boxes put away. Solid steady investment.
@@chrisc4264 yes. It will always be consumed. I just saw a guy pull a Jordan beam team from stadium club. Imagine that in another 20 years. 100 a pack easy
I think the point that a player does not have to be a complete bust for his rookies to go down in value is excellent.
Great point! You can get rookie cards for 20-30 Hall of Famers raw and still have change left over from a $50. Was Craig Biggio a bust? John Smoltz? Far from it.
Good example maybe Derek Jeter? Not many like him but he is sitting around 30$ while most rookies are triple his value b4 even stepping on the field
Great,well needed video,with your wealth of knowledge and experience, putting these hot prospects in understandable perspective hopefully will help new collectors, investor, dealers to understand the huge risk they may be taking, or how long it may take for an athlete to reach HOF status.... Well done Chris.
Chris
You are on point with the plethora of modern rookie cards of today’s stars compared with stars of the past. I believe today’s stars are really overvalued because it is based on current hype and potential but the reality is like you said many of these stars will become the next “Kevin Maas” (remember the 1990 Upper Deck hype)!
The Kevin Maas hype was real!
Or Todd van poppel, even pat listash! Dude was rookie of the year that year!!! And never did a damn thing after that! And football Danny waurfell? Was the #1 pick that year supposed to be the next Joe Montana! And others rb Tim biackabatuka or David Klinger smh list goes on wake up people u get about 2 hof rookies out of a decade of classes if your lucky! Wake up people
Almost forgot about Maas lol, but yep I was in the hobby during those crazes
@@richardbianco9674 me too smh me too lol
Outstanding. There’s going to be a lot of folks pretty disappointed in the value of their cards in a few years. Even if some of those guys keep playing well. Some folks are stuck on the idea that values keep climbing if a player keeps playing well. Market is more subtle than that.
I think this video makes good points, but professional performance does not equal impact on demand (which is ultimately what drives price). The people buying these new cards dont care about "all time greats" they are prisoners of their time and perception. And i think this newer era of player will ultimately see these prices stick due to the "he was awesome when i started collecting" factor.
Once again Chris hits the nail on the head. So many parallels today and most of it is just ridiculous. We are in a junk foil era. Collect the HOFERS over hopefuls. Herbert is good but he's no Favre and the odds he wins multiple championships are slim. Great content Chris! Excellent points made.
I've been saying this for 2 years now... lol This rookie craze is going to cost people a LOT of money at some point.. 👍
Or make some people a lot of money 'right now'. 🤣
2:29 lol I pictured that as a Peter family guy cutaway/flashback
"Like that one time I went out and bought all those Justin Herbert prizm rookies"
lol
Great content! Imo some of the best quality content on YT for sports cards investing. I’d been in the hobby from late 70s thru mid 90s and now trying to sharpen my knowledge again as it pertains to strategy for any “new” 2xxx cards I might get into. I appreciate your insightful videos-thank you!!
I wish you did an example from soccer. The point you’re making in this video is made most firmly in the vintage soccer cards!
Always Informative just getting back into the Hobby its only been 6 months and your videos have not only made sense but in using your advice on all topics hobby wise you have saved me a lot of time and money. I Appreciate you taking the time in helping me so I can be able to help my son who has started to collect with me . THANK YOU
Really appreciate the comment, thank you. And very cool to hear that your son is involved as well!
Great vid!!
One important point to add to this is that there is far more sealed product for modern that will gradually be opened, making the pop report disparity between the older/rarer cards that much greater.
I agree. But the 250 plus boxes I have collected since 1981 in my PC will remain sealed. Sealed is a great investment if you have willpower. I'm definitely in the minority I know.
And that pop count is with PSA being shut down, remember that. There's gonna be many more when PSA opens.
tons
If anyone thinks that the Herbert should be valued in line with the Farve, it would be like a early year Hank Aaron card being worth the same as an Eric Davis rookie card.
Very well said.
I've got a couple of Eric Davis Tiffany rookies. They definitely have a cool factor, but they're not the same as a Hank Aaron, that's for sure.
Can’t compare 1992 to 2020 cards
It’s not just about the players it’s how rare the cards are or how expensive a pack is
A 36 pack box of 1992 stadium is around $90
How much is a 2019 hobby box of prizm?
@@goingwild18 In 30 years, no one will care about how expensive it was to buy new, only the desirability + supply.
That is not even a remotely close comparison.
First of all, Justin Herbert broke almost every single significant rookie QB record there is last year, and with the rules changes the NFL has made in favor of QBs and WRs + the fact that he did all that with the 29th best line in the league and all they did was draft him a stalwart LT and went out and got two Pro-Bowl caliber linemen, he's only going to get better/more efficient as he ages.
Eric Davis wasn't even close to breaking any records his rookie year in baseball. He had 10 HRs and 30 RBIs when he was 22, the same age that Herbert had arguably the most successful rookie campaign, statistically speaking, for a QB all time.
So you are telling me that my 500 Kevin Mitchell rookies are worth next to nothing?!?!? This is a must watch video for at least 90% of the people in the hobby today.
They are actually worth less than nothing lol, try finding a buyer for 500 of them. Better yet, see how much you have to pay to have someone take them off your hands. Crazy that we invested that way back then.
the listing of the Herbert parallels was hilarious!
There is no modern star that can bounce a routine fly ball off of their head and over the fence like Jose Canseco. His cards are definitely under valued. Great video Chris. You and others are doing a great job rebuilding the hobby with your educational videos. Wish they were around in 1908s and 1990s.
think Canseco and Bonds will remain comparatively undervalued for reasons to which we are quite familiar lol
I feel that when you named off all those Justin Herbert parallel cards just proves that we are once again going through a time of overproduction.
Another solid video. Keep 'em coming. I love the very candid, no-frills approach. I think its also interesting to consider the demographics of sports fans when looking at card value. As an example - there was a gallup poll out (a few years ago, however) that showed the largest % demographic for NFL fans was the 18 - 29 yr old. That age group will likely gravitate towards their current favorites inflating the value of more modern stars. Same could be said for NBA. I'm curious to hear more from you on the current value of vintage as a long term investment especially some of the iconic topps sets. I dabble in both vintage and modern but tend to collect or hold the vintage more.
Excellent advice! I completely agree. I think there are a lot of people spending ridiculous sums on some of these newer cards today, and there’s probably gonna at least 25%/30% of “hot” new prospects & “rookie stars” careers that just never panned out, and they’ll then be taking a huge hit 5/10 years down the line when they try to unload them.
IMO it’s definitely better, especially when buying super pricey stuff & when long term holding / collecting / investing, to go for the proven names and talents over the brand new guy who’s not rn. And tbh 25%/30% is probably realistically a very low estimate of players who are the hot thing right now, but a few years down the line will just be viewed as average at best
2:27 - 3:18 really sums up the cards available today in a hilarious way. A few parallels can be fun (the Allen & Ginter minis come to mind). But 40+ different kinds of sparkle on the same card? No thank you. It was very funny to hear you list them all off, though.
Great video I'm not in the sports cars market but I been thinking about it and looking at things closely and to me it is quite amazing the amount to parallels to the base rookies in ultra modern product it just seems REALLY insane quantities plus the added gamble of hoping the player becomes an all time great. With that being said I do like the Long game on collectible much more than the short so will personally be looking at vintage great rookies who are already proven for value thanks you love your channel
Hi Chris - Great way of pointing out how crazy it is that these young studs are being over-priced on their rookie cards. Another really good Video. have a good day. Barry
You are 100% correct. It makes me laugh when I see new cards of players that have only been around for a couple years sell for crazy money. Its just not smart collecting.
This instantly became one of my favorite hobby videos. Thanks!
Great video !! Needed to hear this. Thank you man. Keeps it in perspective.
Hey man. You have no idea how happy I am thay you popped up on my feed. Keep it up!
Agree, we need to view all these rookie cards of each player as a market cap like stocks, to give people a better idea.
I think what a lot of people miss is that in order for your sports card to go up in value, it has to have some catalyst. A player has to go beyond expectations for prices to increase.
This explains why
1) Older players like Favre and Dirk generally only see very slow increase in valuation (they are retired and already in their hall of fame). There is nothing left to prove.
2) Guys like Luka will only increase in value at this point if he wins an NBA championship or an olympic gold medal.
Great video Chris.
But one counter I'd make is that you can't just look at career accomplishments when evaluating card prices. I'd say an even more important metric is the excitement or 'sexiness' of the player.
Just as an example, I don't think anyone would argue that Allen Iverson had anything close to the career of Tim Duncan... and yet AI's rookie cards are all higher valued, and that's because he was an exciting player and has a bigger fan base.
Also because Philadelphia is a hobby hotbed and San Antonio is...not.
@@thecardsaysmoops3 agreed... there are a lot of factors that go into a player's card values that are just as, if not more, important than their stats.
I mean, just look at the dirk vs Luka example in the video. Same market, but I have a feeling Luka will continue to be higher valued because he plays a more exciting brand of basketball.
Its a great point. Can not overlook the excitement factor
Wow! This is one of the best videos on long term investing!
Been collecting for a while. I used to let my BB cards 'age' 15 years before the 'final sort'. With the perspective that years bring, I've comfortably shortened that to 10 years recently. Outside of serial numbered and autographed cards, the mania with modern and ultra modern cards baffles me.
So what you are saying is: short term you play the hype and seasons, long term you buy the accomplishments. Love your vids, keep them simple and informative!
Your instinct is second to none... gonna take a second look at my "long terms"... thnx
@11:20 Chris GREAT examples of "best" ,...for about a season, now just an afterthought
Could you imagine if PSA and Beckett graded most of their submissions, wouldn’t that flood the market an example would be the black swamp find.
One of the all time great videos I've seen on Card Collecting! Great Job Chris!!
Bro I have watched video after video of nonsense. Until today. Very thought out and well timed, and key topics easy to retain. Simple put yet very detailed. I will continue to follow you, that is a no brainer! great job.
Thank you, I appreciate that!
I agree with the premise of this video. My only is the older cards you highlighted might not rise much, if at all, in price over time.
Thanks for doing this video. It’s mind boggling how all time greats are a fraction of some of the new stars.
Great video, Chris. Great explanation and examples. Helps me rethink a lot of my long term planning.
Very sound advice - as someone who collected in the 90's, the following names are a stark reminder to card values: Mike Piazza, Manny Ramirez, Juan Gonzalez, Chipper Jones, Carlos Delgado, etc. - all very good players and some in the Hall (Piazza, Jones), they were all part of the card hype back then (your modern day Vladdys, Sotos, Tatis...). But card values are probably even less than what they were back then (granted, no one really looked into print runs at the time...). Be careful what you hold long term!
Thanx Chris. That was very informative and entertaining; especially when you had me in a "Parallel Universe" - wow!
Some great points. It is so easy to go after the new shiny Tatis over something old and less attractive, such as the Beltre or Favre rookies. I just wonder how much upside some of those older ones really have? I think some of them have already topped out. I just don't see people paying more, even in 5-10 years, for some of them. I mean, maybe a little more, but not enough to tie your money up putting a bunch away. I don't know, I guess you just really have to get the right ones. Great vid!
I love the knowledge you have and are willing to share. Thank you
Great videos man. Love to hear a bit of a different perspective.
As someone who’s collecting over 30 years I agree 100% you are the voice of reason. Fun to read discord of people chasing Eason, Trask, etc I’ve been there done that but I’ve learned. Basically a new era of excited collectors is awesome but they will learn as well!!
Another great video! I rarely buy new player cards (though I do buy new sets) unless it’s someone I really like (Baker Mayfield, Shohei Ohtani, Sebastian Aho to name a few) .. I’m 85% collector; 15% investor .. I don’t plan to sell my cards - I like them too much .. they’ll be for my kids to sell when I die which I do keep in mind (that’s the 15% part).
I agree with u on Herbert but doncic is gonna be the next goat. He is a great long term investment
Great video, lots of good info here. People have been in the hobby know there’s gonna be lots of Luka’s that turn into Jamal Mashburn’s.
Awesome video. IMO there’s another factor in play which is a player’s popularity with fans. There are lots of examples of hall of fame caliber players whose cards aren’t worth much compared to fan favorites who may even have inferior stats.
Hey thanks for the vid! A hockey example in the future would be nice.
Also to be noted that Favre's name is spelled incorrectly on the card. As far as I know his last name is spelled Favre instead of Farve as shown on the card.
Listening to this entire video it is very apparent that we are in a Junk Wax era part 2 bubble for sure. Hype is all over the newer cards and the makers of the cards are cashing in on our stupid-ness. To make matters worse the teenagers who collected during the late 80's and early 90's are all in again in their mid 40's with a lot more buying power. I will use my David Justice and Jerome Walton rookie cards to light my next cigar..... Great video as always. You rock man.
True but I am sitting on a stack of Mahomes that I got cheaply that have a lot of potential. Nothing is a safe bet but I just happen to be a Chiefs fan so I sort of lucked into them.
@@AKA2PM Mahomes is different dude shows he’s a hall of fame level talent right now
OUCH! This video is so well done, well presented, concise, and logical that it makes me ill. 😂 And I say that as a long term investor who has plenty of vintage and even more than plenty of ultra modern.
This perfectly captures the data for the current environment which is ever evolving and definitely hard to correlate and make sense of at times (in terms of card values).
Seriously well done. A masterclass in what it says - straightforward long term investment advice in this wacky point in time in the hobby/industry.
Great info. It's all about the price you get into them for. I will never understand someone being willing to spend $1,000's of dollars on a rc card of a young player.
Absolutely amazing content. Thank you for this.
Damn how many variations do they make on the same exact card. That’s so crazy. I can’t imagine these lasting in value long term with how much they are putting out.
Absolutely spot on. And I agree with the "why" you feel this way. Your knowledge and expertise is second to none.
You really need to add "Story Teller" and/or "Card Coach" to your intro. These videos are always great
Strawberry and Doc would've easily gotten in the Baseball HoF had it not been for drugs. Too bad to, because they were awesome to see.
Cocaine is a hell of a drug in my Rick James voice.
Great content. Great perspective. 👍 The best I've seen.
This video made me go to ebay and add Tim Duncan 1997 rookies on my watch list. Low pop count era of cards and some cool looking ones too. Ya the refractor versions can be pricey but still some nice ones for less than a few hundred.
Great point! Thank for sharing!
Spot on. It's ridiculous the prices some pay for guys who haven't had a cup of coffee in the show yet...
I understand the premise of these observations. You have to consider the modern collector. They gravitate to the flashy mojo/ cracked ice/ auto cards. Paying up for the subdued 1999 topps finest doesn’t do anything for them. So I think the old cards will continue to be less desired regardless of pop count.
and many collectors felt this very same way about late 90s product in the late 90s. herein lies the problem.
Those types will move on to the next big hype and the prices on these current ones will drop like an anchor. Even ones that hit that start status will cool and see prices drop
@@funnyhandle the problem is the late 90s product was bad. Very bad. All of it. That’s why the hobby died until things got flashier and rarer.
Favre misspelled on that slab
Awesome video!!! Unbelievable how many parallels Prizm put out!!!
Great, great video. Your channel is so awesome. I stopped trying to understand why modern is worth so much more than vintage. It has more to do with the latest and greatest, which is our society today. Such as previous year iphone is worthless.
Absolutely nailed it on this one. Well done!
recency bias - a lot of collectors in the hobby now recognize current players like Herbert, Doncic etc more than Farve/Dirk
Love the numbers and what I view as a dealers perspective to long term product. I’m curious, since PSA has been around for awhile, do you have the prices of say a Dirk PSA 10 RC value in his equivalent years to say the Luka? It be interesting to see what it was back then when he was hyped and what inflation has caused over that time span. Thank You for the video.
Between the projected WAR predicting HOF video and this one, you are really taking some gas out of my Pete Alonso hype train. Don’t really need a “Hall of Really Good”, I am looking for a Barry Bonds with no PID, lol. Now while I go into this with open eyes, a small veil of unexplained optimism is necessary. Great video none the less, you can only put so much in a balloon before completely predictable outcomes. CHEERS!!
No, dont say that :) Collect what you love and Alonso is an exciting player!
Not sure if I commented before but agree that this video was awesome. You really lay it out with a balance of information, that avoids bias but stills informs very clearly. You are awesome dude and I appreciate ya bigtime but I have a question.
With Fantatics scooping Topps in what feels a little oddly quiet, quick and closed at least to their previous client and partner of 70 or whatever years perspective. And thennnn this plus Steve Cohen and his ties to PSA make me very curious about the whole hobby and appraising and grading and the whole thing.
I subscribed because of this video. Solid advice.
so glad you talked about this because the prices on some modern rookies are crazy. i would rather spend a grand on LeBron cards than any new rookie that could turn out to be "great but not an all time great"
This really opened up my eyes to how over priced rookie cards are right now. I’ve held off buying a rookie Zion or Luka silver prizm psa 10 because it just seems so overpriced for someone that is unproven. After seeing this I’m so glad I did. It’s hard to know what the true value for any rookie players are but the market is definitely over saturated with modern slabs. Im sure even the vintage pops will start climbing just because everyone and their cousin was sending cards to psa before they closed.
I recently went back through some 2019-20 NBA rookie cards I had and compared to Ebay what they were now selling for. Most are only selling for a buck now. They are like Prizm and Dunruss so not high end, funny how that happens, but that's always been the way it is. All you have to do is go back to the mid 2000s. Look at a player like Gerald Green . His cards were way up there back then, but now they are super cheap.
Great Video... I agree 100% and really consider the best recent example is Ryan Braun. During Braun's 1st 4 years maybe a little longer even he was considered the next great one of baseball and like you say more often then not they can't keep up the pace and I think in his case PED's helped accelerate his decline, but anyway 20years from now he'll be probably almost unknown by anyone who wasn't a big baseball fan during his "glory years"... as always appreciate all the time you put in (especially on those Herbert parallels), I can't imagine how long that took but it was a fantastic visual to make that point.Thanks so much!
Appreciate that and great point about Braun. And you are right, the Herbert parallels part took longer to edit than the rest of the video combined :)
Nice to hear "realistic" vs "hype" content....the big picture and long term play always wins!
Nomar Garciaparra had 5 or 6 really incredible years hitting as a shortstop for Boston and then just fell off the table with his wrist injury. Jason Heyward on the Cubs was supposed to be the next Albert Pujols when he started with Atlanta. Great fielder but he just can't hit worth beans. 6'5" & 240 lbs and he bats about 240 Average & hits about 15 Homers a year. Not exactly Pujols. Your examples are on point. I think Favre is really underrated for the career he had.
Actually super helpful info. My heart loves the few Herbert's I have but my head say sell. Should prob start listening to my head sometimes. It has a limited life cycle at this point.
So true….I remember thinking Jose Canseco was going to be the all-time best baseball player ever….I had 2 of his Donruss Rated Rookies that were worth $150….wish I would have sold those in 1989-90
Insightful, relevant, and useful information. Great video.
loved the video (especially the endless herbert parallels)!
Another awesome video! As a collector for more than 30 year, I total agree with you. This said, there is one element that would favour a Luka or a Tatis over Beltre or Dirk....there are many more younger collectors now as compared to when Beltre or Dirk were starting out, so there is more potential for more people to want a Luka or Tatis in their collection when they get older as compared to Beltre/Dirk. This said, any potential would be quickly drowned out with all the parallels and copies out there of the nee guys.
Thats a great point about more young people today than 20 years ago. Definitely could impact things long term