3 Recent Trends in the Hobby: Grading, Prizms, & Travis Kelce
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- čas přidán 26. 06. 2024
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I totally think the grading thing is so true. I recently bought a 2019 Topps Pete Alonso PSA 9 for $5.50 and a 2020 Topps Bo Bichette PSA 9 for $7.14. It just blew my mind the loss these people selling these cards were taking. Why send in cards if they can be obtained so cheap.
The numbers don't lie, we are in another "junk wax" era. The print runs now are just nuts!, compared to 10 years ago. The nice thing about it is that collectors just have to wait and be patient and we'll be able to pick up high graded cards of our favorite current players for extremely low prices. With all the attention on ultra modern, the prices of all time greats are amazingly inexpensive considering their populations.
There's tons of junk base cards but there's also tons of cool cards we didn't have back in the 90s. I think we'll be ok.
its not just the print runs its the amount of product. i said this during the boom and ppl called me nuts. The amount of product we have today shatters the junk wax of the 80’s, cuz back then u simply has topps, fleer and donruss.
Panini and Topps now have hundreds of sets, from flagship to premium, so many that nobody has an attachment or affinity for one, like wtf is topps chrome solar system ( yes yes i know its cosmic) or all the ridiculous from panini that are in chronicles that then again later have their own individual releases.
its complete garbage not even worth the paper its being printed oh
@@blessembreaks I make a full time living off this stuff u call junk my friend. Just because it's junk to you doesn't mean other people don't know how to flip it constantly for a good profit. I've been doing this for years. Before and after the boom. Still buy and sell hundreds of new era cards everyday. And I will continue to forever.. What u call junk, I call good money...
It’s crazy too (and I buy ridiculous hobby boxes as well ) but I truly remember buying a box of 1988 Topps from down at the convenience store for a lil more then $13….taxes and all. I’ve opened so much junk wax in my life and every time I see a Prizm mega or select mega (especially basketball) it just makes me cringe thinking of say 1991 leaf baseball in comparison. 😳
With the internet, Im able to buy some great slabs of my favorite players. A lot of the cards I buy now are higher grade or quality than ones I already have.
This business is the only one, outside a casino, where collectors/wannabedealers don't mind losing money and they do it happily. I have been watching the same thing as you for over a year.
Ya, I have sort of jumped on the Prizm/Parallels /Numbered thing. Almost all if my 2022 and forward modern graded purchases have been only of parallels. I think over production is once again in our mist. We will all recognize this in going forward at some point. You have pointed it out as have some of your contemporaries have. This is similar to the 80s junk era all over again. Since the younger crowd didn’t live through it, it isn’t an era they personally experienced. But even the parallels are over produced. I started collecting the 2022 Trout Topps line in graded 9/10s and the mire I look the more I find. Numbers 27, 200, HW50 come in the same image in over 50 differences. It’s crazy!
Over production,lack of knowledge and chasing a buck are the 3 biggest issues. This happened in the junk wax era in the 80's and more recent. Everyone was a dealer, opened a shop,sold at flea markets etc. There was plenty of product and the fad wore off a bit but it's the same now except people who want to be dealers use the Internet now. This is the junk wax era 2.0. I opened my first pack of baseball cards in 1976,I've seen what happened then and what's happening now and people won't admit they lost money only show they made money. If I spent $100 on cards the past 5 years that's a lot. Everything is over produced except for numbered cards which now is coming into question because of the superfractors which aren't true 1/1. Can't go wrong with older stuff,it won't jump in price but a slow trek uphill value wise is better than a nosedive on all of the modern junk.
I've been collecting early 2000's patch cards of all time greats and honestly I think it's a really solid long term play. Players sign autographs until they die and most patch cards today are "player worn". There's only so many game used jerseys of each player to be put into cards and the rarity/value comes from the patch, not the serial number or product it came from. I've been picking up insane Nolan Ryan patch cards for under $50. I'd be shocked if those lose value in 10 years compared to 99% of modern cards
I believe what we’re seeing in the ultra modern grading market is a large percentage of uneducated or inexperienced submitters. Essentially they’ve gambled on the overpriced hobby boxes and then submit anything with potential for a 10 praying that PSA blesses them with some 10’s that they can try to flip and profit or at least get close to even. This is in no way a sustainable model and the grading bubble is going to burst. “Junk slabs” are a real thing and it’s going to get way worse. At shops and shows you will see the volume of essentially slabbed dollar boxes continue to go way up.
I can attest to losing money doing this. Although I firmly believe if anyone wants modern raw cards, the ONLY way to buy them are by purchasing hobby boxes.
Blessed with a PSA 10 is right
I don't know why people complain about 'how hard it is to get psa 10'. 90% of my submissions are psa 10. do people even look at the cards before submitting? I spend like 30 seconds looking at the corners, edges and surface with a magnifying glass - if any defect DONT SUBMIT or DONT EXPECT A 10. Then I spend an additional 2 minutes searching ebay for the same card to compare centering. if there is a psa 10, great I have something perfect to compare against. are people not spending 3 minutes of their time before shipping these cards off for grading? its not that critical.
@@paulburket buying hobby boxes has less payout ratio than lottery tickets. if you want to make money buying and selling cards, buy singles. if you want a specific card, buy singles.
@@Aut0KAD my last submission was about 100 cards. 80 of them were what I thought to be clear 10’s. I researched, looked over them with an 8x magnifying glass, a few were SGC 10’s and about half were even ones I opened fresh. Think I got 35 10’s. The SGC’s got 9’s. There were even two cards that I should have sent to Beckett cause they were pristine and even they got 9’s. What’s weird is I got 10’s on three cards that were 9’s IMO. The non-moderns of the same set I sent received 5-9’s… I have NO CLUE why.
I think a lot of people (myself included) are grading modern cards for their PC because they like the look of graded cards and to protect the cards. Also, I think a LOT more TCG cards are getting graded now than they used to... more than 50% of the cards that PSA grades each month are TCG, more than 2x what was graded prior to the pandemic.
True. So many now. Pokemon, One Piece, Disney, Magic, Metazoo, etc.
I love the grading boom! 99% of my cards are being bought online, I will no longer buy raw cards online. As a collector, I know the card is authentic, protected, and no surprises on condition when I get a PSA card. As a collector, it makes sense to let others pay the grading fees and buying said card online.
My theory why so many ultra modern cards being graded, people are sending bulk orders. Based on the grade, they profit on some cards and take a loss on some. And at the end of the day when they sell a graded card under the actual grading fee, they are just trying to recoup some money for their next bulk grading order. I will assume most good players in PSA 10 slab will turn profit.
It’s interesting, because i’ve been seeing raw cards selling, in some cases, for the same amount as many PSA 9s! It makes more sense to just sell raw cards at this point. With a few exceptions, of course
Me too! I’m a collector and I’ve bought PSA 9s for the same as a raw card recently. 🤯
You scratching your head wondering why the grading submissions are so high is me scratching my head wondering why people continue to buy wax. It’s amazing to pull something great, but how often does that happen?
The wax at least makes sense in the same way people throwing money into slot machines makes sense - it's literally just gambling, and gambling has been a vice for thousands of years and will likely continue for thousands more.
The grading of $2 cards just makes zero sense.
@@soogasoogabreaking and grading are 2 sides of speculation
I believe grading is a combination of multiple situations. Newer collectors that haven't left the hobby after the boom coupled with lower grading costs and turnaround times getting better. The grading companies love grading as many cards a month as they possibly can. They aren't too worried about the value of the card afterwards.
Grading has changed the hobby and not for the good. PSA once charged me for a card they didn't grade. After that, I decided I was done grading. There are just too many slabs unfortunately and PSA didnt help this mess to begin with quite honestly by not putting a limit per customer. I still just collect my PC guys but I've also now decided to part with some of my sealed wax. Gotta get some funds out once in awhile. Trends will always come and go but I feel vintage will stand the test of time.
Hi Chris, thank you for the video. Appreciate all your work on this great hobby.
Agreed in 2019 silver prizes were one per hobby box, recently they watered down silvers and contagion has set in to older silvers
Number one reason! They’re aren’t subscribers to this channel. Chris, you educated us years ago on this😂
Theory: TCG market is bigger than we think. Also many new collectors in our 30-40, to make all the mistakes that most of us do, in the beginning. Too many parallels. And too many autos. Perfect storm
I think the most unfortunate thing is how time and time again, card companies have a product that people love like silver Prizms or even PMG’s, and then print them to death. There’s nothing more disappointing to me in the hobby. I know they don’t really make anything on the back end of cards, but come on, have a little less greed/stupidity.
Absolutely printed to death. They mean nothing
Interesting point: there's no practical way to include card companies on the back end. There is no mechanism to control their printing. Why should the card companies limit their profits to protect profits of people who trade in their product? An essential instability at the very heart of the sports trading card industry that will episodically ruin their inherent value.
@@jimfree0 Exactly. They would essentially profit via the continuation of future sales and interest in their products as backend profits. I guess Panini doing blockchain was somewhat backend profiting, but those were limited to very small print runs if not 1/1’s.
I would personally rather pay more for a box if I knew they would keep the print runs to an absolute minimum. That way, the card company profits and so should the customer.
Great stuff. Very surprised on the grading trends. I though we past the “junk slab” period during Covid - with moment in time weirdness of massively over slabbed 2020 cards.
Funny about the Kelce RC. I did the same thing last year on COMC but with base cards. Sold two right away leading up to SB. And the other one just sold and I made about four bucks. Great minds, you and me.
Great thoughts and story on the Kelce card. When pop culture crosses over into sports, prices jump. The Last Dance documentary captured everyone’s attention because most were inside watching Netflix and values soared. I’m sure there are many other instances. It’s tough to predict. Maybe we should be keeping an eye on documentaries coming out and start subscribing to People magazine to keep up with who’s dating who (insert sarcasm).
I am a bit bummed though, I’m from NE Ohio and a huge Kelce bros fan and have been wanting to pick that exact card up, but procrastinated of course. I even had several in my watchlist with the intent of buying soon, but they have either been sold or jumped astronomically in asking price 🤦🏻♂️ I’ll wait until the craze dies down and pick one up in the offseason.
The grading topic needs to be broadcasted to all in the hobby, that is such a great point to cover.
Great video as always, Chris!
I think what we’re forgetting is some people are Baseball Card Collectors. In today’s era, this includes collecting graded cards. I’m not saying this is everyone, but a notable percentage of submitters to grading companies are keeping them for their PC
That wouldn't explain the current market though.
Yes and it seems that vintage even in mid grades are going up, if only slightly? Anyone know? Seems so to me.
These (3) Topics are Jedi Archives Worthy 💰💵
post 2020 lockdowns I got out of the hobby (purchasing) because of one word saturation. When the prices went up on low print runs it was inevitable they would inflate print runs. They raised the prices on boxes, and the I don't understand why part is called: Holding the bag.💰
The reason for this is there was literally a 3yr backlog to finally submit anything to PSA when they finally brought there prices back down to almost pre-covid levels
My theory: with your point about fewer and fewer cards being gradable, from a financial perspective, that is true to experienced people..... it's the newbies that are just coming in and not having taken the hits of selling a slab for less than the grading fee.
I think the hobby is pulling in more new collectors than we realize but at some point it will correct and ultra modern subs should come steadily down.
I feel like people are grading more due to their lack of research, and understanding of the aftermarket. The average card collector I meet lately seems to rip open more packs than anything, with the hopes of finding that dream hit. Love your breakdown and analysis of the situation! Also thanks for the tip on the Scottie Barnes cards haha, gotta add a couple pieces to my personal collection!
Nail hit on head in my humble opinion!
Here's a couple of possible explanations to why there are so many ultra-modern cards graded when it doesn't seem to make financial sense to do so currently: 1. Delay in return of graded cards from grading companies(specifically PSA, not SGC); market adjusted itself down after cards are submitted but before graded cards are then returned to submitter.. 2. Collectors will grade cards they simply want to get graded for their PCs and some of these graded cards find their way into common circulation based on grades the collector receives that are lower than desired and/or that the collector has duplicates of higher grade. 3. Cards submitted in larger lots to receive economies of scale pricing. Then they sell off to recoup grading fees, etc. to break even per points 1 and 2. Thoughts?
Some great points.
From a non-dealer standpoint, I send cards in to both PSA and SGC. I only send cards to PSA that I think will 10. SGC is more lenient on grading and gives out more 10's. I think that the people that are sending in ultra modern are trying to catch a hot player and turn it fast like Brock Purdy. The cards I send in are my favorite players like Tlaw, Justin Jefferson, and older baseball cards.
I'm a PC only. If I open a hobby boxes I will send in several of the same rookie card trying to get a high grade. Mostly grade pretty high grades now. You can get fantastic deals on some older ungraded cards online too. I recently bought a couple of old Germanboxing cards in great condition.
Interesting video. Grading increase potentially due to: 1. TCG 2. Lower grading fees/specials 3. Card collectors/investors not being financially smart. 4. Overly optimistic views of the hobby. 5. The cards you displayed as examples may be the outliers and most cards could make financial sense to submit. You showed 30 or so cards - not necessarily a fair statistical sample. I mainly follow baseball and assuming many recent submissions are Ohtanis.
6. Grading prices have decreased significantly since the boom so now seem to be (relatively) a bargain.
I wonder if Taylor Swift ‘plays’ on Spotify are increasing as much as Kelce cards/jerseys. Doubt it!
To follow up my first comment: I think people who joined the hobby and went hog wild during COOF time are fire saling because they realize they were silly, and aren't getting immediate return on investment that they thought. And after that leaving the hobby as a result because "there's no money in it" or "too much work".
1) you’re right, first to market wins the profit share
2) TCG world now grades more than sports, you’re failing or underestimating how large that community is.
3) The amount of people endlessly cracking and resubmitting hoping for that psa 10 is crazy…
4) People are addicts
Travis Kelsey will be in the HOF when he retires and if Taylor swift married him his rookie card will be worth over $4000 this is great investment for the future 🔥
I would like to see the number of sports cards graded as opposed to cards graded. I think a lot of Pokémon etc are getting graded. I see cards from the late 70s - early 80s in PSA 3-4 and wonder who wasted money on getting that graded.
Its because the young generation is not collecting, nor investing. They are all about gambling. Look at the singles market. It came down hard but the boxes stay high. So there is a high demand for a product that gives u less and less return on investment. Everything they do is with a "get lucky once" mindset. Open boxes hoping for the product hit that makes them rich. Or send anything to PSA hoping the PSA POP 1 is enough to make big bugs.
Look at the content they consume. They dont wanna know anything about Strategies and ROI, they see the big hits and the high end cards and they wanna live that life. Its not only sportcards, its everywhere nowadays.
Great episode, Chris. Late to the chat but some reactions to the low prices on graded blue chippers and non-intuitive rise in grading: There may be a rise in people grading to put cards directly into their collections; you pull it, you love it, you grade it, you keep it. I suspect the low prices on a Burrow or J Rod have to do w abundant supply and the reality of ultra modern being ultra available. Will we see the price of new boxes of chrome and bowman decline as a result - probably, because now the easy money on rookies will be limited to the tougher pulls.
Some of the grading is attributable to casual collecting, I think. When people get more serious to the point of being an investor and/or dealer, people tend to focus on value when it comes to submitting cards for grading. Being on the side of more of a casual collector with some exceptions, I am not thinking so much on the short run and there being value obtained from submitting my cards for grading. I just want to get certain cards graded and have fun in the hobby. Others may have a different opinion, and I respect that. Just my thoughts.
Chris, it was good meeting you at the Silver Spring card show. Appreciate your time since I know you were busy with, looking at collections and making deals. I didn't see see any Travis Kelce RC's there. Or most of the usual suspects, that are on the ''high rollers.'' But today I learned that El Grande is, Pedro's nickname. Pretty cool. Hope the show went well for you. See you down the road....and let's go Orioles 😎
2023 World Series Champions. Win it for, Brooks. #5 🙏
Great meeting you as well! It now is clicking better your youtube handle. I appreciate all the support over the years!
@@collectorinvestordealer Me and my brother love your channel. Easily one of the best, if not the best, being a fellow Marylander is just a bonus haha.
When the bubble bursts it’ll happen quickly, which is why I look at slabbed Hall of Fame rookies, around a 9. I can wait until the price I want to pay happens. The watering down of modern cards is by Card companies just using different card stock of the same pic to drive up prices.
In regards to grading one thing I am guilty of is sending in extra cards. For example, I might have 15 cards to send in but because I’m already doing an order I will throw another five cards in there. It doesn’t make a lot of sense but it is something I do 🤷♂️
Let the junk-slab era begin!!
I got back into the hobby two years ago and am just now getting into grading. Like sending cards in myself. I think there are a lot of people that are doing research b4 sending cards in. Plus the wave of people that are just getting into it from the boom.
3 items that I see contributing to the grading trends. 1) Older collectors like myself who have seen the value of their cards rise significantly and want to protect that value. I don't believe I had submitted a card for grading this century (literally) until this year. With pricing coming down and the convenience of companies to allow submission at regional shows, I've submitted 40+ cards this year. 2) The obsession of collectors/ investors/ flippers to think their card deserves a higher grade so they break it out and re-submit. The more cards are graded, the more cards where there is a disagreement on grade. 3) The volume/ variety of cards still being produced daily entices so many to submit immediately. Even though there is such a small percentage being submitted, it is high compared to prior years. Keep up the great content!
I also see every person doing a break talking about sending to PSA afterwards. Every insert and everything with a serial number gets a slab now, at least it seems like it.
All of the comments are reasonable. It’s likely a combination of:
1. Uneducated new collectors/investors who think 50% of all their cards will Gem Mint
2. The hype of ultra-modern finally imploding due to large print run
3. Small portion of collectors who would rather pull their PSA 10 card rather than buy one outright. So they send 20+ copies and hope for a few 10’s and try to recoup some cost with the 9’s.
The last point is interesting. Because everyone knows it’s cheaper to buy the card than submit a dozen raw to grading and hope for the best. But then, ripping boxes is similarly illogical. You’re not likely to pull a total value from any box that is more than the price of the box, but why do people do it? It’s the thrill of “what if”. Roll of the dice. Same can be said with grading. What if 80% of my cards come back PSA 10s? I know they’re all 10’s because I looked them over with 10X loupe and nothing got past my eyes.
All in all, I’m with Chris on this. I don’t know what the answer to the grading madness is, and I also don’t submit to PSA as much as before. In fact I didn’t renew my subscription. I still remember the days of $6 a card bulk specials. That was well worth sending in anything and everything for a chance at a 10. At current grading prices, nothing south of $100 raw would be worth grading unless it’s for PC regardless of the outcome.
The Kelce story is a perfect example of cultural relevance. Mickey Mantle is another example. His numbers are secondary to many other HOFers, but he was a cultural icon known by many, many people who had no interest in baseball. So my question is, how do you think cultural relevance compares to hobby relevance? Which is more important in your opinion?
Great question, they are clearly both very significant
historical importance is another factor (1st inaugural hall of fame class, important to social justice, etc)
@@collectorinvestordealer exactly, for axmple a card like the rocks miami card only has value due to cultural significance.
It’s become easier for any individual to submit on their own with reasonable turn times and therefore for most cards there is not an attached premium in slab because there are less uneducated buyers who are not grading themselves. That buyer can just buy raw themselves to grade. Likewise volumes going up because more people entering market looking to make a quick buck.
omg chris your a swifty !!!
Who in there right mind going to pay top dollar for a overprinted card? We're living in a junk slab era due to many overprinted RC the hobby needs to learn which cards to send in for grading or not.
Grading is up, but so is the amount of cards being produced, but in theory it should come down, but people are still getting collection piece, new players, and anything numbered graded.
I completely stopped grading a year or so ago. The cheapest option i have is through PSA Canada. Even with being able to hand deliver and pick up my cards, it costs 30$ USD per card. If you try subbing directly to psa or any other company, its going to cost you way more. For me, grading makes absolutely no sense. Not sure whos grading all these cards.
I send in two different things now days .
1. I send in a lot of vintage(1950-1980) They're worth a lot more in a good grade and you know exactly what to price it at and don't have to worry about tire kickers very much.
2. I send in most ultra modern bowman chrome numbered parallels and autos that are worth it(only 1sts). This is because of buyers on ebay. I don't like taking extra pics of the surface at an angle and answering a bunch of questions about the card like "hey do you think this will get a 10?".
I think TayTay may have some big projects comin out soon and fear Travis may be part of a larger marketing campaign. Swift for the tackle!
I can tell you why I went from grading nothing ever to now grading a lot. It’s just one word. Money!
Great Video very insightful as well as some of the comments especially the fact where alot of newbs that bought wax these past 2yrs are trying to get psa 10s back now hopping to recoop and move on.
Reading these comments i truly see why its is the way it is..... we have people that think grading prices are cheap which they are not.......2018 PSA Grading Service Prices
BULK (100 CARDS OR MORE) $8($19 now) (50-99 CARDS) $10(not available)
REGULAR $25($75)
EXPRESS $50($75) (max value $1,999)
so it actually cost more ...when a some of these cards got sent in it was a good deal for them. Also what happen was the "BOOM" so all the over priced graded base and insert cards fell far below what they really should be at imo.
Side note Chris why do you think none of the big hobby people that can make waves have push for SGC/ TAG to change the narrative just wondering your thoughts
More submissions is more fresh blood in the hobby.
More people and it's a lot easier to get stuff graded by third parties now.
Also, regarding Taylor Swift & Travis Kelce cards on the rise.. I believe this is fueled not by Taylor Swift fans but the dealers/investors who see a potential opportunity coming.. This strategy may blow-up on them after a couple weeks, as I would expect very few Taylor Swift fans to all of a sudden start collecting Travis Kelce cards.. especially those at price points well above $20-30. In other words, IF the Taylor Swift fans become interested in Travis Kelce cards; they're not going to all of a sudden become card collectors.. and therefore, aren't going to pony-up money for refractors or relatively higher-dollar Travis Kelce rookie cards.. Even if they have $$$, my thought is that they wouldn't even go after rookie cards or make discernments like we may do.. they would probably just choose a card that has eye-appeal and affordable. I could be way off on all of this.. just my humble opinion. Thoughts?
I've only submitted once to PSA, and it was a rainbow I had collected, so most of the cards were simply unavailable in a slab due to rarity. Others were extremely common and I wanted them graded just for consistency in the display. None were graded as investments.
Love these insights. I recently sent 8 cards into PSA because I had been waiting for grading prices to drop (sent nothing in during the pandemic), so maybe there's a lot of people who are now sending in non-ultra modern who held off during the pandemic. definitely could be a sign that the grading trends aren't sustainable though. maybe we eventually are going to see the number of cards being sent in start to taper off in the next year or two.
Very interesting information you showed regarding the numbers of cards being graded each month and how it’s essentially doubled since 2021. My thoughts around that is we have newer generations of collectors who aren’t as in tune with what’s valuable and are ripping a lot of new product; they pull a new shiny card of a “star” and want to get it graded. Myself personally, I get cards graded that are for my PC only, low serial numbered rookie cards/rookie autos
Never underestimate the power of the Swifties. It transcends industries. 😂
Been saying this for a while...I knew the modern stuff would go down in flames.....but I have a 1 of 1.....yeah and??
When people get there cards graded they aren't thinking "this will sell for .99". They are all thinking they will make thousands of dollars and then get more graded and be able to quit their job and sell cards all day.
Spot on topic Chris...no need unless it's a rare one that you want to hold or you can make a nice profit right away.
So not too long ago I saw a lot of so call ^investment^ video . I guess quite a few of the new and old enthusiast caught the HYPE.
I totally agree with not grading any base cards from probably 2017 on, with rare exceptions. What I do grade are the short print/autos, because they're rarer (even tho now there seem to be a TON of "short prints"). The only time I might is if I could open a chase card immediately after release to be one of the first to the market (see the $1000 spent on the first Wander PSA 10 base card). Other than that, no way!
Nice meeting you at the show in Silver Spring! Hope you had a good time!
People grading base cards is the problem
For a one time yearly fee of 99 bucks, you join PSA super club or w/e, with a per card grading fee starting at 15 bucks. You probably also get queue priority, and maybe even some negotiating leverage depending on volume.
This partly explains the cratering market. But like all market traumas involving a commodity you can't eat or make into a weapon, it involves dripping-wet market saturation and more than a little mania.
9:11 when you said watered Down I could tell you are from the dmv area lol we have a certain accent but yea man great video!!
It's simple. People submit thinking they're getting a 10. There are people submitting stuff for their PC and don't care about value but those selling 8s and 9s were submitting purely for a 10
Thx for sharing your videos are awesome thx again
There really needs to be a restriction that cards selling under $3 or so raw get denied for grading.
Out of left field note: words actually have meanings. Refractory, for instance, would never be applied to something made out of paper. Don't get me started on "Prism". Market psychology is driven largely by emotional factors, of course. But objective factors like ridiculously inappropriate adjectives and thermodynamic properties attributed to your product begin to suggest snake oil.
Great video on grading and IMO like you I’m more selective. But I think two things are increasing, grading to make money is not a secret. Refractors and other #ed cards increased too.
So we have more educated hobby with more options to grade. And more grading production than ever
Lots of game playing cards being graded. Pokémon. Wizards of the Coast. Yu Gi Oh. Those markets are strong. And get a 10 on a common and you make money.
I’ve been grading for about 1-1/2 years now and I grade football, baseball and a little basketball. Mainly qb’s in football, was BIG on Ohtani last two years, and I’ve been doing well with selling the prospecting game.
Thanks captain.
The answer to all your questions are there are a lot of novice collectors and stupid collectors. But it even goes farther than that. If you look at the “Big Three” grading companies and do some research you’ll find factual data that puts into question the objectivity in how they grade (like giving sweetheart grades offers to their top bull submitters, keeping low 10 grades on important cards ect) and how honest these companies really are. You’ll also find more FBI investigation into their actions. I really am of the opinion that within 10 year or so, the reputations of one or more will be so tarnished that the grade will no longer mean anything to collectors.
Whistling past the graveyard...that's my explanation
The grading companies are currently all sending hitmen to your house.
QUESTION: Anyone have tips in regards to dealing with PSA about cards being damaged during grading?
the junk slab era has arrived
Junk slab era of legit slabbers back in early 2000s we had junk slab era of rogue slabbers
I'm really only buying vintage and rookies in slabs. And I'm slowly building up a stock to send in for grading. I'm more interested in new junk era, mostly due to the parallels. I was looking at the Chrome Platinum Anniversary sets and I cannot believe the number of parallels in those. I grew up in the original junk era anyway, so getting PSA 9 copies of my favorite players is still really inexpensive.
You don't mind that it's killing the livelihood of our host: collector-investor-dealer mumble.mumble.mumbe?
Great video
Pokemon has got to be 20x Magic, but I'd guess still guess that grading MTG Alpha/Beta/Unlimited, Arabian Nights, Dark era, etc cards could be a big chunk of the recent submissions. Post Malone pays $2M for a Magic card and everyone knows. Ultramodern MTG now has numbered cards and artist autos coming soon.
The problem is, is that the market had finally caught up with its self. They have more sellers than buyers. More product means competition and lower prices. Everyone was buying, prices have gone down….. and now, everyone is “unloading their investments. It to the world to shut down for cards to skyrocket….. and that will never happen again.
If it. This sounds like the market is saturated. This happened on the 90s
Grading has become the new breaking. People want the thrill getting a gem mint. Like the casino the real winner is the house in this case psa.
I mean the Modern market is now flooded because companies were printing based on previous sales history. In 2020 and 2021, you couldn't find ANYTHING on shelves for retail. Breakers were buying up as much as they could through their distributors or second hand when able. So obviously, these manufacturers are going to see massive sales, hoping the trend continues. Obviously it doesn't, but in 2022 and 2023 they printed to the demand they saw in 2020-2021. If shelves are getting cleared, they are going to fire on all cylinders. Then when things start making mainstream media, its going to raise projections as well. And in reality, they were still selling out stuff in 2022-2023, but the secondary market sales are not going as well. That doesn't affect the manufacturers though, they made their money on the initial sale.
Also half of all submissions are TCG
Ebay and the grading companies are taking too much money out of the hobby. The hobby continues to work its way down to 0. I haven’t bought anything in months
On the grading keep in mind that you are looking at sales. Imagine how many haven’t sold. Grading is a human decision. Maybe you have to ask who are the humans who are grading. Maybe kids who don’t do the math???
Great video bro! I've been watching this trend myself. And now we have a junk slab pandemic😂😅😢 I seen it coming in 2020 so much base and none numbered cards aren't the way to invest and watch the numbered cards as well not what u think they will suffer some too when its all said and done!!!
🤙😜😁🤘💯
Alternatively, it's a golden age for the pure collector.
I hate to say it, but chasing profits on micro-trends might be the lot of the investor/dealer until the next major market 'rediscovery' of cards [10-15 year timeframe??]. Surely with your time in the industry you've seen several major downturns(?). I wouldn't use the Dutch Tulip Mania of 1637 as an exact analogy for the current market, but even a yutz like me can see that 'frothy' is an understatement.
Ebay is also flooded with Zach Wilson cards right now.
Chris, great video as always and I’m a huge fan of your channel! I’m not surprised on the prizm prices as the parallels are so much easier to get these days when opening retail. I have liked baseball prizm the last couple of years despite it not being licensed, enjoy the different parallels that make it interesting versus the same old thing with topps before this year. As a collector it also has become a little easier to get autos and low numbered parallels of my favorite team and players out of prizm as well since I don’t typically spend the money on the high end products.
Are you telling me that I have to start watching the Kardashians to see which cards are going to spike?
Society appears to be going that way
A few ultra modern points: 1. I’ve sold graded cards by multiple companies and people only search for PSA. Don’t grade anywhere else. Full stop. 2. People ONLY want PSA 10. In fact, they don’t give AF about 1/1 cards graded a 9. IMO, that’s a major opportunity for investment. 1/1 PSA 9’s are wildly undervalued in comparison to 10’s of much higher prints. 3. People aren’t buying or even making offers for cards listed to buy now. It’s auction or nothing. 4. PSA isn’t awarding 10’s on valuable Jordan cards (over $1k value). There were three I personally opened which were without damage/imperfections, 50/50 centered and otherwise perfect. Spent $100 a piece grading cause they’re worth a few grand but all got 9’s. Im now wondering whether to submit Jordan’s at all anymore. If I do, it will be the cheapest option.