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SPACEX Timeline to MARS! The Case for Mars 30
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- čas přidán 18. 07. 2018
- In this Episode of the Case for Mars, we discuss SpaceX's proposed timeline to send humans to Mars. We look back at the Red Dragon idea, the Interplanetary Transport System, and the newest BFR design. We uncover what they need to do in the next four years to accomplish their goals, and some notable people that think they won't be able to make it to Mars.
Here at Martian Wolf, we aim to learn about different technologies that enable us to make incredible scientific discoveries about space exploration!
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When do you think SpaceX will send the first humans to Mars?
As you said in the video, 2022 is a bit optimistic for the cargo mission, and they would HAVE to send that first. However, adding two years to that timeframe gives much more hope for ironing out all the small issues such a huge project will encounter. I believe a cargo mission in 2024 and a crewed mission two years later to be viable.
Martian Wolf we have to account for Elon time. All of his goals that he sets are feasible from an engineering standpoint, but often not from a practical standpoint. So we must add 1 year to Elon time which would put the cargo mission at 2024 and the human mission at 2026. I would love to go on the 1st mission to Mars if it were free but it will cost about $100,000 which I do not have yet.
There should be a “Elon Time” calculator! And if everything goes well, the price to Mars could possibly drop lower (or the cost to space)
2026
I'm 16, so hopefully when I become adult there's already someone on Mars !
And I want to become one of them, but I'm Indonesian, so good luck for me
I an 80 this month, want to see men on Mars by my 90th birthday. SpaceX has the vision to do it.
Let's wish they do get us to Mars compare to other agency!
Happy Birthday Mike! Wish you to see 1 million people on Mars!
NMN or some new substance can enable that you go as well!
Wish you best health!
mike cadwallader I am sure there are a lot of millennials that would like to witness a MOON landing LOL
@@indianastan I did, many of them; live on a Magnavox (American TV)!
Hope u see them landing on Mars and beyond when your into your centenary year.
Our speculation:
2022 - SpaceX's BFR prototype booster and cargo spaceship makes first orbital test flight around Earth;
2026 - First BFR crew spaceship successfully tested;
2027 - Two demonstration BFR cargo spaceships separately land on Mars at the two most promising locations for the first human base on Mars;
2028 - Manned BFR crew spaceship lands on the Moon;
2029 - Two unmanned BFR spaceships land at the selected location of SpaceX's Mars Base Alpha with cargo and robots to prepare the human landing;
2031 - Two BFR crew spaceships with 12 astronauts each land on Mars.
More predictions in our Mars Colonization Timeline: www.humanmars.net/p/mars-colonization-timeline.html
human Mars I love the thorough timeline on your website, I only got to 2040, but I’ll have to check the entire layout later today!
This seems like a plausible timeline barring any significant disasters at any stage. Realistically there most likely will be some bumps in the road so I would bet on another two to four years on top of these estimates.
Although it's unlikely, it would be nice if SpaceX and Blue Origin made some sort of collaborative effort.
The success of the Mars mission depends on SpaceX maintaining a significant share of the global space launch manifest to fund the program. If BO become equally successful in reusability and compete with SpaceX it's going to drain the potential revenue stream and slow the project even further.
Calculated several setbacks in our estimates, but let's hope no disaster with human lives lost.
@@HumanmarsNet loss of life would be regrettable, but remember it took that to get the atmosphere correct in the Apollo command module. They learned. A bigger disaster would be a "fundamental", difficult to correct, design flaw in spacecraft, or the picking of unqualified crews.
Hey Human Mars, I love your website! It's a shame that there aren't more comments and such on the various pages. How long ago did you create your website, how much has it cost you, what is the traffic like, and who is behind the effort you are making? (Just one person, a group of people? and what is your ultimate goal?)
If deGrasse Tyson says its not possible? then count me in, Elon/SpaceX will definitely make it so.
I actually partly agree with deGrasse Tyson, it mean that for the science thing (like probe, research, etc.) about space that has to do with gov, because a science in some cases not profitable.
But why denies the reusability of 21st century rockets, that's good for NASA (so all of the expensive money for building their own rocket could be spend elsewhere instead).
If you had limited budget:
1. Increase the budget
2. Or, spend it smartly
Tyson is a pretty smart scientist, but getting to Mars is an engineering problem, not a science problem. The problem with smart people is that they tend to think they know things in areas that they aren't expert in.
tyson is not a scientist, and no smart person thinks like that. getting to mars is an engineering problem, making it profitable is an ECONOMIC problem. there are plenty of reasons to get to mars, it's an entire planet with the same elements that earth has, like gold, platinum, iridium, lithium, uranium. the first people to get to mars can claim it for themselves. there are international laws, but those laws mean nothing if they can't be enforced, and spaceX would have the only means of getting to mars, because there is no competency.
it has been proved multiple times that mars is a deserted wasteland with no life in it. the only thing stopping humanity is a bunch of alien idiots worrying about imaginary martian micro-organisms and the "risks" of microbial contaminations, i roll my eyes everytime i hear about it.
@sbmphr how many "start up businesses" are profitable in their first few years? Think of a few in the "communications" business. Remember the cell phone the size of a shoe box? Given enough time the tourism alone (Earth orbit, lunar fly by and maybe even Martian excursions) will be wildly "profitable"
@@jesusmora9379 Yea there could be huge gold veins discovered on mars with all those volcanoes that could have pushed it to the surface, if discovered I wonder what it will do to the price of gold here on earth.
ITS/BFR will use Raptor engines not Merlin. Merlin is old school wasteful technology, Raptor is very advanced. BFR and ITS also look quite different. BFR has delta wings and kind of a 60's look to it.
Thank you for clarifying! They are definitely using Raptor engines
It's quite interesting actually. While Merlin are the highest thrust to weight engines ever made they us the very common gas generator cycle, where part of the fuel and ox is burned in a preburner, the exhaust of which powers a turbine pumping fuel and feeding the main combustion chamber, a lot like a turbocharger. Raptor is the much more advanced closed cycle engine, meaning it wastes no fuel for pumping. The fuel is burnt in the preburner with much higher oxygen content than normal, the combustion products, mainly hot oxygen is then fed into the main combustion chamber and utilized for thrust. Therefore staged combustion engines are much more fuel efficient, although oxygen rich staged combustion engine have long been considered impossible since the turbopumps need to be able to handle burning hot oxygen, which will ignite most metals.
Typically you'll either have an oxygen rich or fuel rich staged combustion engine, meaning both the fuel and oxidizer are pumped by either mostly fuel or mostly oxygen rich combustion. This leaves most of the propellant unburnt and still usable in the main thrust chamber. For instance RD-180 is an ox-rich engine while the RS-25's of the Shuttle are the more easily managable fuel rich type.
Now the special thing about Raptor is, that it is both types. It has an oxygen rich side pumping oxygen and fuel rich side powering the fuel turbopumps. Both sides combine into the main combustion chamber. This type of design is also known as a "full flow staged combustion engine" full flow because both the ox and the fuel power the turbopumps as opposed to one or the other mainly. This has several advantages including being a lot less prone to exploding in case of small leaks of backflow in the pumps (hot oxygen could meet fuel in an ox rich engine and blow the engine apart).
You could have just linked to Scott Manley's video! :)
BFR looks a little bit like the Space Ark in "When Worlds Collide", a sci fi movie in 1951. Let's hope we don't need it for THAT reason!!
Starship+Super Heavy
Cosmic radiation in interplanetary space is 2x that of low earth orbit. The ISS has had crew members who have spent the equivalent of 2x flight to Mars. Yet none have suffered clinically from that radiation dose. The Hadfield argument that we cannot travel to Mars because of the human radiation damage is floored.
The interplanetary travel is definitely an issue, but I think part of his argument is dependent on how long people stay on Mars. If we build under the Martian regolith that won't be a problem, but if SpaceX has people living on the surface in BFRs for 10+ years, that could be much more lethal.
I really like the way you explain things. Your demostrations are clear and I understand most of the things you say. It's great that you do videos on SX, and I don't think I will find any other channel with such great content like this. Thank you for making videos.
glenn goodale Thank you for the kind comment! I am glad to hear that I’m able to convey the information clearly and effectively, because that is my goal!
There are other great channels aswell, Scott Manley if you're into technical details
thanks
I agree with the Space X time line (ASAP)
There is a real threat of extinction for our species and Elon seems to be the only person with enough intelligence to do something about it!!
no matter how bad it gets on earth it will never be as bad as the conditions on mars are, so i don't think elon is doing this for the survival of our species but more for the fact that we simply can do it and in the long run it will be profitable
@@moji96 No you have it backwards. The only reason he wants to make it profitable is so he can set up space travel. And travel to anywhere on earth in under 40 minutes .
I wouldn't bet against elon
They should send fit old people (~50) to mars that have no objections to dying on mars. They can be the builders for future generations. I would like to be one of those people, but I may miss out on the fit bit :(
Love it
Fit 'OLD People 50'..
You are missing off 50 year olds
you'll be instantly "fit" on Mars, about 40% of your weight here. If 275 lbs (clinically obese) here then 110 lbs (clinically anorexic) there. Plus you will grow a bit, so you will be a tall lean mean machine there. Reason enough to go I should think. :D
Thanks for the information about dying on Mars. Should I go with you, don’t expect me to shake your hand too many times.
50+ women likely won't be producing a 'future generation.'
Why should age, as long as one is a healthy adult with useful skills, be a barrier to taking the risk? The planet's environment (especially the low gravity) is going to present the same problems, no matter when 'future generations' arrive...
(I'm 65, and I'd go to Mars in a heartbeat...but I want the round trip. I'm not interested in being a colonist. For anyone who thinks they can make it work however, God bless you, go for it.)
Good quality content with efficient use of video length. Good job. Keep it up. :)
Xenos Zeta Thank you! I am glad that you’re enjoying the content! And if there are any other topics you’d like to see, I’m always open to new suggestions
I'm sure you're going to hear this a million times, but you showed a picture of the ITS when you were talking about the BFR. Also the BFR is going to be powered by the raptor engine, not the Merlin engine.
firexgodx980 thank you for mentioning it, I will need to be more careful in future videos
Loved this video, it is Jan/2021 and already spacex has completed all they have projected, so the date for now is solid
Aged like milk...
Four years later, and absolutely nothing has happened to move this forward.
Small point of order: SpaceX does not need to Human Rate the rockets unless they are sending NASA crew up on them. If they are sending up 'test pilots' NASA does not need to be consulted because everything goes through the FAA. If NASA crew do go on the missions then yes, the BFR will need Human Rating to NASA standards.
11:49 That looks nice. it also looks cozy
It'll slip 2 - 4 years (minimum), IMO. Elon isn't great at estimating\delivering to schedule when in development mode - he has form. But I have no doubt that he'll do it. He's amazing. I'd have slunk off with my 160 million and lived a carefree life.
Some suggestions: you should have mentioned that SpaceX is a private company, so it doesn't have the same quarterly grind (you alluded the opposite, in fact). I'd also have mentioned Space X's plans for how to generate additional funding (in addition to their growing launch business) to fund all of this, i.e. 12,000 low Earth satellites for worldwide, super-fast internet & intercontinental travel using the BFR. Good clip though. Keep it up.
Thanks for sharing your input! It seems that a lot of people are interested in the financial structure of SpaceX, so I might make a video about that in the future
I agree. SpaceX's plans and definitely Elon's plans have skewed towards 'money' instead of their originally intended goals. It's part of growing, as a human being; to value one thing and another, in the remaining yrs.
Many ppl, the 5billion ppl, w/ Internet access believe we'd be sending humans this decade and a colony by next decade. I'm no rocket scientist but, even I should know that anyone who goes to mars will die on mars. A colony won't be realistic anytime soon. I do hope Elon Musk's works will lead to greater things, but Mars might be farther away then we think. Low orbit satellites seem to be the money maker and leading problem to future space exploration. Things need to be fixed and discovered here in Earth b4 we fictionalize a colony in outerspace. We should be calling Space travel: Earth's momentary outer sphere travel.
Let me add, ''Ashes to Mars'' in which we send passed away humans to mars will be a more realistic outcome than a colony in the future. That's a million dollar idea, eager business men (& woman; no middle) of the future. You could be the next billionaire, in creating hopes and inflating desires of an elderly close relative soon to die. An influencer or a pamphlet designer. 🤭
PURE FANTASY !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Neil Degrasse Tyson: "SpaceX can't profit"
Starlink: "Am I a joke to you?"
Nice video... side note.. I have always worried about the darn thing tipping over.. I mean on a purpose built landing pad its fine, but on random terrain, its going to be almost certain at least 1 of the 6 is going to tip over ... I think its going to need to have landing struts...
Only the first one will need landing struts ... plus a lot of machinery to manufacture landing pads for the others! :-)
When you're in a fast car on the local strait and your a passenger accelerate to 200 (if you canlol) the feeling is like WHOA!!!LOL
Martian Wolf. Many of my thoughts have already been expressed in others comments, but there are a few things I'd like to add.
I think you are mistaken to characterise Red Dragon as a failure. There was no reason that it could not have been built, no insurmountable fundamental hurdle to it's success. SpaceX simply chose to bypass Red Dragon development for a far better, more versatile, fully reusable architecture, the BFR.
Even when they were first launching the F1, there was the F5 in development, but it never flew because it was superseded by the F9. Was F5 a failure?
IMO the only failures that SpaceX have had is that of two rockets that had a RUD (Rapid Unscheduled Disassembly) in 2015 and 2016.
You question if SpaceX can make 10 BFR's in 4 years. In a recent interview Gwynne Shotwell revealed SpaceX's current production capacity for F9 rockets. She stated that in 2018 alone they will produce 14 first stages and 30 second stages for F9. It was also mentioned that SpaceX can produce their Merlin 1D engine at a rate of one per day.
This capacity should transfer well to BFR, though probably not to the same numbers. The thing to understand here is that the majority of their manufacturing capacity will transfer to BFR very soon, given that the (current) F9 Block 5 1st stage is designed to be reusable up to 10 times with little or no refurbishment and up to 100 times with some refurbishment. So within one year (possibly a lot less) they will have enough F9 Block 5 1st stage boosters to last until BFR is ready.
I think it is entirely plausible that SpaceX can produce 10 or more BFR's per year once the design is verified. Also, Gwynne has stated they will continue to offer F9/FH for any customer that is not yet comfortable launching on BFR. There will be a phase out but only due to demand, not because of necessity, as BFR launches will be far cheaper (possible 1/10th the F9 cost).
Which brings me to other comments I saw about funding BFR.
At IAC 2017 Elon specifically addresses this issue, and these are supported by a couple of interviews with Gwynne.
1. Making F9/FH redundant (no further R&D into these vehicles)
2. Making BFR smaller than ITS
3. Starlink - SpaceX has recently received FCC approval for ~14,000 broadband communications satellites. There are two of these in orbit now testing the system. And given that SpaceX have their own launch ability, this makes for a very lean cost of deployment. They are also building these satellites in house, and given SpaceX's very successful vertical integration model, these will be very cost effective.
4. Earth to Earth transport. According to Gwynne, this is a very real possibility and they are pursuing this.
5. Government contracts - Currently SpaceX have a good percentage of US govt. related launches (NASA, DoD, USAF). NASA and USAF are budget constrained, DoD not so much I think. Given that the BFR can possibly launch to LEO for ~ $6 mil, there will ample work from the govt. In fact the USAF has recently been ordered by congress to buy launches that use reusable vehicles, and if they don't, to justify before congress why they didn't.
6. Commercial contracts - They already have a majority of this segment and given the BFR cost of launch, this will only increase, if they can maintain their cadence (I have no doubt).
One last thought...
Whilst SpaceX have always purported to be the railroad to Mars (if you build it, they will come concept), they are very active in sourcing other entrepreneurial organisations to support their effort to build and maintain a human habitat on Mars. Just recently SpaceX hosted a Mars Workshop/Conference at the University of Colorado Boulder, where ~60 scientist (including NASA representatives) engaged in discussions about how to survive on Mars. In addition, Elon has stated that their own ISRU unit is well into development and he is happy with that progress.
And one more tidbit of information that may become relevant - The Boring Company are building a Battery Electric tunnel boring machine using Tesla Model 3 batteries and motors. This is not specifically designed for Mars, but may come in very handy.
Sorry for the long post, but I wanted to give some idea of where I think SpaceX are at right now. I'm a bit skeptical about 2024 for Humans, but 2022 for cargo might be achievable.
Thank you for sharing your insight! With this information, I do agree with your perspective that Red Dragon wasn't a failure, but rather a decision needed to be made that reflects the ultimate goals of the company, and the opportunity cost of the project. In regards to developing 10 BFRs over the four-year timeframe, most of that is truly dependent on how well R&D goes. If it is as successful as they were when integrating vertical landing capabilities into the Falcon 9, then it is highly possible that SpaceX could achieve this goal.
Lastly, I think the comment you made regarding the "railroad to Mars" is great! The company does truly believe that they can get people to Mars within the decade, but whether we are prepared to send people, is another question. Most of this CZcams Channel so far has been focused on introducing the challenges that we face in sending people to Mars. Now NASA does have ways to overcome a lot of these challenges, but there is still quite a bit that I'd say we don't fully understand. (Like their ISRU unit probably requires water, but accessing ice on Mars and guaranteeing the location is a challenge all on it's own) And most of these techniques are still in the research/theoretical phase. So I'm interested to see how NASA's push changes when BFR comes out, will they refocus on developing new technology for these missions, or keep pushing with the Lunar Orbital Gateway and going to the Moon? I'm interested to see what happens.
Thank you for taking your time to share this comment, I do love to learn everything I can about this subject!
The more I hear Neil DeGrasse Tyson speak his mind (not a well rehearsed script for a NOVA program), the less I'm impressed by his big head science.
He is rather full of himself, yes.
12 years to date from the first launch of Falcon 1 so I say 10 years for sure. They've done a lot of homework and groundwork and have assembled a great engineering crew but this is going to be hard. A lot of ground to cover.
Imo 2022/2024 is unlikely (I nonetheless wish they do meet this aggressive target) while something like 2024 unmanned mission/2026 manned mission is likely.
Of all the issues you discussed as being problems, the radiation exposure is the deal breaker. Right now, there is no practical way to protect the Astronauts from the long-term effects of exposure. Talk of sending 100 people at a time is crazy considering SpaceX has yet to fly even 1 human in space.
That's totally untrue based on Robert Zubrin's argument and calculations. The radiation exposure is rather minimal and comparable to a chest x-ray over the three year period.
I think the 7 refueling flights are an unwise idea even if the boosters are reusable. How often can they be reused, 10 times, 50 times, 100 times? Why wear them out with refueling launches? An upper stage? Expensive and non-reusable or only the engines are reusable, but only one refueling launch, or perhaps none if you can launch a fully fueled, manned, and loaded BFS? The SLS core stage has non-reusable engines even though reusability for the RS-25 type engines has been tried since 1980. The SLS core stage is highly efficient. Coupling a BFB and an SLS core stage (presumably side by side) should allow an enormous payload to be orbited, why not a fully fuelled and loaded BFS. The SLS stage would have to be taller than the BFB to mount the BFS (would be like mounting a 10 m payload shroud). Eventually, fuel sources (water, O2, CO2) will have to be found off Earth to reduce launch demands. If the 7 refueling launches can be avoided, a mission can probably start in 2024, or so.
Nice video
I agree that landing humans on Mars in 2024 is unlikely. Musk himself said it was possible but unlikely. If they continue trying to accomplish this dream, I think that 2028 is pretty feasible.
Just getting the BFR built and certified is going to be incredibly difficult for a company the size of SpaceX. They also need to build all the life-support tech as well as the robot mining equipment they will need for the autonomous missions needed before the manned ones. I haven't heard how they plan to do that. The most likely thing would be to outsource it to another company (or companies) but other companies aren't nearly as efficient as SpaceX. It's a big job.
A more feasible idea would be to create a Moon colony first. Colonizing the Moon would be a great place to test all the ideas needed to go to Mars and would be much safer. They could start out with a semi-closed system and import some of the food and medicines they will need. In addition, they would be able to evacuate anyone who gets injured or sick and get them to Earth in only 3 days instead of just having them die.
A Moon colony could be used to mine oxygen and possibly hydrogen to create fuel for missions to Mars (or wherever) also. That would make it much cheaper to explore the outer solar system.
Personally, I don't see why we would want to go to Mars anyway. It would be easier to create space colonies than to terraform Mars. Terraforming Mars would take hundreds or thousands of years. We could have billions of people living in self-sufficient orbital colonies by then.
You've not heard of Starlink, then. Money will.happen.
Money is already happening lol
I live in remote Alaska and cannot wait for starlink to happen!!! "SHUT UP ELON, AND TAKE MY MONEY!!!!"
I’ll go for sure even if I’ll never see my family again
You are not the right candidate. We will those with no family.
Daddy issues
When you watch this in 2020 and they’re pumping out rockets like a factory
When you give coke to rocket physics
Duck Goes Quack lmao
We can build bases in lava tubes. Radiation protection underground
I'll go!
Thanks Martian Wolf, good realistic story.
However, I wonder why nobody ever talks about the TPS (Thermal Protection System) for the space ship.
That must be one of the major challenges in the design, given the ambitious turn-around time requirement...
Tired of waiting, let's go to Mars as soon as possible.2024.
This cracks me up every time I see it! It may happen but they are not going there to live but to die!
Can we get like a yearly update or maybe a like every 6 months. Idk could be a cool series
Dude! Never heard of you! Insane good video qualitiy! Keep the work up mate!
Thank you for the comment! And I am glad you're enjoying the content!
i hope your channel grows and prospers, you are a very good content producer. Thank you for your excellent efforts.
Thank you for the kind words! I just hope to help teach people about the fascinating things that are going on in the Space Industry!
Ok, you earned my subscription👍🏽👍🏽👍🏽🇵🇷
Thanks for subscribing!
Awesome video!
Friendly tip: Use Audio Crossfades between cuts. ;-)
They got the first bfs/starship grasshopper getting ready to test
I think first BFR mission to Mars lands in 2029 and yes, I would like to go.
Who wouldn't? You are gonna die as a hero or land on a different planet and will be a legend in all human history. Also it is as close as you can get that exploration spirit and survival challenge that our kind faced for thousands of years and evolved intelligent because of it
I would be more than happy if we can go to the moon, try to make any kind of moon bases and try to survive there!
Does SpaceX have the technology to accomplish a return mission from Mars? Nasa is working on MOXIE which will power up their return trip to earth along with creating a breathable atmosphere for humans on Mars. Does SpaceX have something like this which is reliable and can bring the astronauts back to earth? And if yes, what will be the anticipated duration of SpaceX's Mars trip?
Well it didn't take that long to get to the moon and that was without today's technology. Took less than ten years using slide rulers to make it to the moon. WoW that is hard to believe. Those under powered gas guzzling rockets were huge.
They're on schedule right now. I have hope. Grasshopper testing is going to begin.
I think 2022 and 2024 will be pretty close to reality. As another person posted, we'll see in a month or so how the BFR/ NASA test goes.
i think we should first place a base on the moon. not only is it closer and does it has moon ice but it can also serve as a refeuling hub for missions to mars or other planets
How are they gonna get the BFR human rated? Do they have to prove the statistic and fly 500 times uncrewed with only one fatal crash?
Hello, you should turn on automatic captioning to allow strangers to follow your videos. Thank you :)
I think all these companies should get together and build one bad ass ship and send it >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Just discovered your channel, great content! Just out of interest what are the top countries by viewership on your channel? I am from England!
Thank you! And the first country is the United States, with England second, and Germany third
Hey just stumbled on your channel! Awesome video :) Glad to see another growing space channel like mine :) Keep it up!
Also, I'm extremely excited to see what the future has in store from SpaceX and other private companies, and governmental entities! Keeping an extremely keen eye on SpaceX.
Thanks! Great job on your channel, I just subbed! BTW I just sent you a message through your website...
The ITS and the BFR were/is not using the Merlin engine but the Raptor engine that SpaceX is currently developing that instead use methane as fuel compare for RP-1 for the Merlin engine.
yeah i would loved to work in spacex and be part of the martian colonist :)
2022 launching BFR with consistent success in 2023 for cargo only. They find a way to commercialize it without people because they need make money while figure out how to keep humans safe. 2025 cargo on Mars, 2030 people. Hello from Saudi @3:30AM! Keep up the good work!
Good Morning from the US! And very thorough timeline, your thought process makes a lot of sense. They will need to phase out the Falcon 9 and Heavy before they start looking to push BFR to Mars. That or Elon will go all in, and have a chance of bankrupting the company... But I like the timeline!
+Martian Wolf - Space X won't phase out Falcon 9 nor FH.. they'll continue to utilize them for satellite launches, this way they will have multiple profit streams for the company.. in the beginning the monies generated by the BFR will be slow coming, until the track record is established, just as it will be slow going with additional traffic to Mars until a colony shows it's extended viability
Can't wait for my aliexpress china delivery through a BFR
Dana Hebdon How long do you think it will take the Falcon 9 and Heavy to be phased out (if ever?)
I would love to go to Mars.
If a BFR booster explodes on landing then that is the end of the mission, they won't be launching anything else from that site any time soon.
That is a good point! They will probably have initially landing zones away from the launchpad, to obtain flight data about the rocket. But if it does explode on a Launchpad, that could definitely push back a few launches.
The thing is, if Spacex manages to land on mars and potentially bring humans there the next years, I think the company will get many contracts by future orientated organizations. So funding wouldnt be that much of a problem once they are at this point.
I think SpaceX should focus more on Building Colonies on the Moon.
Interesting perspective, personally I believe a "proving ground" colony on the Moon would help us understand how to live on another celestial body. Why do you think they should focus on the Moon?
Tyson... Rolls eyes
Mr. Wolf, I wouldn't call Red Dragon a failure. It was always intended to be a research vehicle, a stepping stone, or opportunity for SpaceX to learn - like Falcon 1 vs. Falcon 9. But just as Falcon 5 was canceled (to go straight to Falcon 9), Red Dragon was canceled. Perhaps SpaceX decided that too much of the minutia of engineering and working out little problems, tooling to build, etc. a prototype (Red Dragon) was wasted - they'd have to do a lot of it over again for a full-sized ship. I find it kinda' neat that SpaceX publicly displays intermediate engineering ideas and concepts (e.g. ITS to BFR). If you look back at the Shuttle, Apollo, or ISS programs, early plans were very different from what actually flew.
By the way, SpaceX only needs a positive cash flow while developing the Mars transport, not profit. The difference is, loans and investors make up the difference between costs and income. As long as enough people think SpaceX will eventually make money, it is not unreasonable to run deficits in, uh, the start up phase.
Thank you for sharing those pieces of information. I do believe I was mistaken to call the Red Dragon a failure, since a failure usually means that somebody is unable to complete the task they were set out to do. But rather, the company decided to refocus their efforts on to other, debatably more important projects (like vertical landing capabilities).
And to build off on " I find it kinda' neat that SpaceX publicly displays intermediate engineering ideas and concepts (e.g. ITS to BFR)." I personally think that is a lot of the reason that people can easily follow the company more closely. Since they are upfront and honest, with both their failures and success, many people feel as if they are alongside the company as they grow and get closer to achieving their goals.
Thanks for the comment!🚀
Yeah I am just waiting eagerly to land on mars come what may in the way.
I think the short time frame was designed to build excitement which in turn would bring renewed interest space as a whole. Most people given up on space, Elon wants to change that
It does sound realistic enough but that is playing it safe....
ASAP! Shit yea I’d love to go on one of those missions. Peace and love!
raptor engines or did they change that
While you're on your way to mars can you please take the James Webb telescope with you?
Love the videos, thank you
Thank you for watching! And I am glad you’re enjoying the content!
You used the ITS graphic for the BFS @ 5:22.
Quality of your video always improve. Good job👍👌
Thank you!
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maybe I would prefer staying in LEO for a while on something like the Gateway Spaceport as the better idea.. I think that we first need to have a spaceport and then go and mine resources from the moon or something with which eventually we could also produce the fuel for the refill of the BFR.. but it is true that at this point SpaceX need to do it themselves/launch it from Earth/.. however, this is another thing which could help commercialise LEO and eventually the moon - if you could provide the BFR with fuel for a cheaper prise than a launch would cost, you are going to be the pioneer of the space gas station business.. oh, we live in an age full of opportunities :)
Fun fact: The rest of the world calls metric tons "tons".
The german name is Tonnen
swoosh...
The rest of the world can't even get to the moon.
Losers!
Enjoyed, subscribed. 2025 first crewed fllight
Thanks, I am glad that you are enjoying the content!
With prompting from ongoing Asian space achievements, it looks like space is the new frontier for human expansion; and the idea of humans living beyond earth is no longer an unreal fantasy. USA, Russia, Europe and more-- are saying this is the way to go.
FYI, you can't fail at something if you never even attempted it. Deciding to pivot away from red dragon and focus on MCT/ITS/BFR/Super Heavy/Starship is not a failure.
I really would like to go to Mars and help to build the facilities needed for the next generations of humans.
I bet that SpaceX will get the first people there in 2025.
great vid!!!! u should be the one who goes, would u want to? :) . super job on this btw
Thank you, and I might go, just depends on the circumstances of the trip.
Raptorrrrrr no merlinnnn
NASA is very conservative and Spacex's Elon Musk appears very optimistic around timelines in getting to Mars. I do believe realistically it will be at least 10 years before we will step foot on the Red planet..
incorrect. Rating system has been set up for commercial space transport foe years - since Virgin announced it was going to do it. Its regulated the same way commercial airlines are regulated. not because its NASA but because its the *public*. heck, even cars are regulated, even though neither buyer nor seller are gov't.
9:03 now they are making them 1 in like 2-3 weeks and it will go up to 2 in a week
Big "Falcon?" Rocket
I was sure BFR stood for something slightly different
The official Name was Big Falcon Rocket
I bet that to reduce risk, the astronauts will launch after the spaceship is fully fueled. There's no need for them to risk initial launch mishaps, then sit through the ordeal of the fuel ships docking for however long that takes, and finally get on their way to Mars.
Unless a gang of a good aliens has compassion for us and they decide to help us to shrink this schedule though...or maybe they've already on command under the table though!
I think by late 2030 the manned mission will launch and early 2031 there will be man on Mars depending on funding and approval considering it's already the middle of 2021 I think within the next 2-4 years will be development and testing until everything is 100% ready plus finding the right candidates to take the risk of staying on another planet for x amount time I imagine they would have to go under a lot of mental training because of the reality of being away from family and friends and only being around a couple of other people for so long can be mentally stressful in which case there is a psychological aspect of things that needs to be worked on before sending people to Mars I realize I said that already but everything needs to be in top shape from getting everything prepped cargo, fuel, oxygen, food, transportation, technology, people being physically fit and mentally fit im sure there is more to it than that but you get the idea. The risk factor plays a huge role with humans going into space in just about every regards. I think sending machines to begin setting things up for us before we arrive can be substantial for us to achieve many milestones on Mars and it would reduce some risk which if anything could take a little bit longer for our arrival possibly another year or two from what I think of 2031 unless in the next 5 years Nada or Space X or both hammer down in time we shall see. Good job with all of your videos I am new to your channel and I must say I enjoy your content and you are very well spoken.
Us army and nasa all ready on mars secret mission
I wish Space X could achieve the goal but where to look for a highly capable modern person to go there without a return ticket.
Mars is waiting for ours plz go fast....
2024, yes
It will be 2024 and i plan to be there on that ship
Really. I would imagine going there would be cool, albiet, would it be worth it? I can't imagine never having children, and I obviously couldn't bring them with me, can't have them while in interplanetary orbit, or for the first few years on mars, so that's at best mid-30's
CactusFishy ofc it will be worth it and why wouldnt have kids ?they can wait until you come back.imagine the honor and glory you bring to your house your family and your name for ever mark in history books who knows meybe they will name some school after you how cool will that be?
#1: Most people won't... be coming back. And even if I did, thats still so many years! Imagine missing all of your child's birthdays, and never getting to raise them. You can't even have a phone call, as radiowaves would take ~10 minutes, so I wouldn't even get to talk to them. Unless I either a: can have a child there or B: being one with me, its a big no-no.
Also, baby sized space suits
2024 human will be on the way
Yes i would love to go!! June of 2025 first man on Mars
BFR has raptor engines not merlin, this distinction is important because raptor burns methane lox vs rp1 lox for the merlin - theres no rp1 on mars that I'm aware of!
Patrick Mason Thank you for clarifying! I do mistakenly say Merlin a few times, when it is supposed to be Raptor.
Mistakes happen, great content keep it up!
9:03 can they make 5 to 10 rockets
haha i love this question. they already made this much in jsut 3 years xD
2026-7 but it will be different to what we are seeing, they will send a prep craft less than a month before it. They will build an initial subterranean fort inside a crater that will have a crude space port in the middle. Space x will be getting money from other places aswell. Many interests will be met.
I really hope they can send a crew in 2024, but the project of a colony is still too ambitious and risky. I think we should get some experience building something on the moon first.
Edmond Dantès Going back to the moon would definitely be a safer place to grow our understanding of long term habitats on other worlds!
or Moon's orbit
Going back to the moon offers no real benefit in safety... It takes only slightly less fuel (unimportant with the refuel-able BFS) and is just a waste of money. The moon is an equal challenge with much less benefit.
And the Lunar Orbital Gateway is an even worse investment.
Valid point I like it
I agree we have a system to go to Mars also.
My b-day August date idk if I want it to happen or not LOL