What is your opinion about giving nukes to taiwan? I think its a great idea. MAD works. Especially if its an addition to the economic MAD in form of Semiconductors. China will try everything. Especially useful idiots. Soft Power is the new winning strategy. Its unbelievable that a state like china can fool people in this way. They buy people mainly. EDIT: I am talking about stationary nukes. No long range missiles. I hope they have some devices covertly. If an Invasion force gets reduced to ashes in 1 week on taiwanese ground...well than the whole operation is over...especially politically. There has to be a way to hijack their internet to inform the people.
The ROC would have to change its constitution in order for it to declare independence. As such, there are still quite a long way to go, especially the pan-green will likely to lose power next year.
Something often overlooked or at least not mentioned is that power corrupts. Jinping has managed to become life long dictator, remove his largest rivals, and have surrounded himself with absolute yes men. When this happens, and it always happens in dictatorships of all flavors, the dictator starts to be a true believer. What I mean is they start to believe their own propaganda. When this happens to expect the dictator to act in its own self interest, economic or otherwise, would be a mistake. Belief is extremely powerful and does have an effect in the material world. As Jinping further embraces the new "superiority" of the Chinese as a race, and country the likelihood of further horrors like we are seeing with Uyghurs will spread. In the end it doesn't matter if they don't actually have the ability to actual win the war in Taiwan, all that will matter is the dictator will believe he is able, and no one will tell him otherwise. Putin is a good example of this, and we've seen the results. Putin believed Ukraine would largely welcome him and his soldiers with open arms and the war would be over in a short order because he like i said, started to become a true believer. From many sources I've heard the push back Jinping will face from his inner circle is even less than Putin experienced. Dictators in these conditions NEVER act rationally. They act as they believe.
Great point, the same thing happened with Putin. He legitimately thought that Ukraine wanted to be liberated, and was only surrounded by yes men who confirmed his beliefs.
That's the thing that worries me. I don't see an invasion within the next year with the spotlight on Taiwan thanks to Ukraine. Things are still a bit shaky in China thanks to COVID and I have no doubt the zero COVID policy protests have shook Xi. However give it a few years once Xi thinks he got a hold on China again and the West looks complacent he then may invade. One thing to look out for is a large turnover of high ranking military and government officials, the type of people who would step in and say "This is a bad idea" to Xi.
@@Rjsjrjsjrjsj His actions support it. He called it a limited military operation for a reason. I seriously doubt anyone could say things have turned out all according to Putin and his military plans. If it helps the same thing happened to many of us in the US with Iraq. Many of us really believed they had WMDs and where a threat. Recognizing that, is the only way to have at least a chance of moving forward and doing better. Main difference in that case is I do not believe our leadership in the US believed in the propaganda, they knew it was a lie, and in some ways that makes it worse.
@@SEAZNDragon Not to mention dictators often use war as a distraction and unifier against inner turmoil. The COVID protests and likely coming economical woes make war in the near future more likely.
A salient historical point: In WW2 during his island-hopping campaign, Gen Douglas MacArthur was faced with the possibility of taking Taiwan. The only resistance was 20,000 starving Japanese troops. BUT....when faced with Taiwan's terrain and the difficulty of landing on the island, Army and Navy war planners estimated that they would need a minimum of 400,000 marines to take the island. And this was at the absolute historical zenith of the US Army and Navy in terms of equipment and manpower. And there are a lot more than 20,000 soldiers on Taiwan today.
@@planetmikusha5898 uh ya they're significantly better because they have much better weapons and defensive positions as well as a very large amount of international navies ready to jump into a conflict too
There’s one other problem with the “slow erosion” model: China was able to undermine democracy in Hong Kong because it controlled the city. China doesn’t control Taiwan.
C'mon, HK was never a democracy. Which former Governor of Hong Kong was elected by the locals? And no elections of Chief Executive after 1997 were free of Beijing's influence or manipulation. The only thing that was badly eroded is the rule of law.
In Taiwan, the CCP mostly depends on factions of the KMT (nationalist party) as a proxy. The KMT and their allies in Taiwan can be counted on to filibuster defense spending and mobilization Bill's.
We might be overlooking something... USS Ronald Reagan (CVN 76) is currently the Navy's forward-deployed aircraft carrier in Seventh Fleet. Whereas other carriers are homeported in the U.S. and deploy periodically, USS Ronald Reagan is permanently forward-deployed to Yokosuka, Japan and spends about half of each year at sea. Have you seen how deeply these carrier groups roll? We're already next door.
When a direct confrontation between 2 superpowers occurs, best believe we’re going to see next generation weaponries that have been classified locked away somewhere in Area 51. 😶 Me personally, I don’t think China is that naive and suicidal so there won’t be a direct confrontation between them and us, and likewise for us…
@@alt7488 And what can they do with that base? They have limited range to operate from it, it's a vulnerable, stationary target... if it came down to a war that base on the solomons would be deleted pretty swiftly. Not like the US would care what the Solomons had to say about it. :P
@@ThroneOfBhaal it allows the navy to get out and roam the seas ..... just like the ijn did in 1941 and with what missiles will the us use to destroy this base?
@@alt7488 What missiles will the aircraft carrier use? That's a funny question...I guess the 90 fixed wing jets and gunships (helicopters) don't have enough missiles for you? Let's not forget that the USS Ronald Regan isn't floating around by itself. It is apart of the Navy's 7th fleet and they have more than enough missiles to get the job done. That's all without considering the US military bases ready and waiting in Japan.
Yes, Taiwan makes those chips however: the Netherlands makes the machines that make the chips so the process starts in the Netherlands. Biden and the Dutch PM had a meeting about blocking China from being able to purchase the machines to further limit their capacity to possibly manufacture those chips themselves
Plus, it's a manufactured product, not a raw material. As long as the supply chains are in place, semiconductors can be built anywhere. We could build semiconductor manufacturing plants in Detroit if we needed to. In 1860, the British textile industry was dependent on cotton from the American south. So when the Civil War broke out, the British realized they needed that southern cotton, so they joined the Confederate cause, sent troops to America and helped the south defeat the north, and that's why the south still has a slave-based economy completely dependent upon cotton exports to this day... Oh, wait. No. That's not what happened. The British just started getting their cotton from Egypt and India instead, and they made the south realize their semiconductors... I mean COTTON... wasn't as important as they thought it was.
@@benjauron5873 Not an exact 1-to-1 situation. Textiles can only be so complex. Semiconductors are a rapidly developing and advancing technology. The problem with domesticating our own chips in the US is that by the time the factories are up and running: what ever could be manufactured in the US will already be obsolete. Same could be said of China. The time to have had these factories built to manufacture them domestically was 10 years ago. Not today.
@Governor K Oh, it will be a setback, for sure. But only a temporary one. The mainland isn't going to decline to invade Taiwan because of semiconductors, that's silly.
@@TheSuicidalBird you are not wrong here but moves are already being made as we speak to do some of this stuff here. I do believe most of our weapons do not use anything less than 10 nanometers. And the plans in Arizona that TSMC is opening I believe by 2025 will be making three nanometer processes. The stuff until I ask here is already very much capable of producing semiconductors that are military would need perhaps not at scale but the ability to do it to stateside is already here. Anything smaller than 10 nanometers is stuffed that is used for high-end computing in the civilian sector or cell phones. A lot of weapons do not require very complex microchips. And BS that may it could already produce over here. It's just a matter of actually doing it. But yes for future weapons we do not have to industrial capacity here right now
In order for that "slow integration" scenario to happen, Taiwan would have to agree to join the PRC under the "one country-two systems" policy. Fat fucking chance of that happening.
Agree completely. Hong Kong was not independent, their Fate was decided by Britain, which had their 99 year lease commitment to uphold. Taiwan is fully independent and masters of their own fate. No way they would give in to China.
China bankrolls, rather openly actually, any pro-china and pro-unification political parties in Taiwan. Though they are the minority in Taiwan, these political groups are very alive, very active, and very well-funded as you can imagine. Also, I believe China is very aware that their best chance at re-unification is to simply achieve cultural victory by swaying enough Taiwanese voters to vote yes to re-unification. This is actually credible because they also wage economic warfare. And when people start to starve and things like food starts to get expensive, voters can tend to vote with their stomach....
Would be more accurate to say that Mao ran and hid from the Japanese and Chiang and the nationalists were the ones fighting the Japanese. Then Mao attacked chiang, who was depleted.
The bastard cowards hid in the mountains while the nationalists bled themselves dry trying to fight off the Japanese. The exceptions to which of the communists were few
A large number of the KMT-troops surrendered to the CPC simply because of corruption. The same corruption due to which the KMT lost the loyalty of the Chinese people in the years after the war. But yea, the CPC basically hid in caves during the war and only came out when the Japanese were away.
Mao was actually more successful because his guerrilla army was able to destroy or seriously hamper Japanese supply lines Chiang meanwhile aboneded his capital and blew up the river banks of the yellow river to slow down the Japanesre army but he ended up killing close to a million of his own people
That’s called “guerilla warfare.” Perhaps you’ve heard of it? I don’t really see what you’re getting at here. I’ve seen so many people repeat this like parrots as if it was some kind of gotcha, entirely aimlessly.
Yes but it also should be counted that the Taiwanese society has been changing, especially last years it became more pacifist so Taiwanese Armed Forces were seriously weakened, as well as French ones by the beginning of WWII (so despite of huge preparations like the Maginot line French were defeated in 1940 by their old enemy who even was won by French in WWI).
But another thing that CCP's China invasion against Taiwan is more like formerly probable Nazi German invasion against the United Kingdom (British forces were weaker than German but the last could not make a fast land-aerial "Blitzkrieg" offensive and at the same time they did not have enough means of delivery of large landing troops together with lack of naval/aerial superiority plus lack of combat training in areas of mass landing operations, exactly by sea on shores with overwhelming coastal defence lines while operations of Fallschirmjäger alone were too costly).
I feel it's important to note that towards the end of WW2, mao's forces held back to let KMT take the brunt and thus be weaker after Japanese withdrawal.
I feel it's important to note that the original Republic of China (in the 1920s and 30s) had a multiparty government where the CCP and KMT were cooperating until Chiang ordered an overnight massacre of CCP leaders all over the country.
Absolutely correct. When it's all said and done, the Taiwanese people must prepare to defend themselves, as quickly and as effectively as possible. Only then will they stand any chance at all in maintaining their peace and freedom. Freedom isn't free, and China isn't going to back down.
In December 2022, TSMC announced the construction of a new chip manufacturing plant in Arizona, and an additional expansion totaling a $40 billion USD investment. In addition, a news report indicated TSMC has enough property in Arizona for six manufacturing plants. It seems to me that diversifying abroad would be a way for TSMC to survive and continue operations even if their home base in Taiwan was destroyed in a war.
Indeed, it would also allow Taiwan move their best tech heads and scientists out of the combat zone as TSMC employees, preventing drastic brain drain which would hamper rebuilding efforts later down the line.
Pretty sure one of the top guys at TSMC have also said that they would rather completely destroy their plants on their own than let them fall into CCP control
@@breadnewbie6326 If China captures Taiwan then it will be turned into one massive military nuclear base. US navy will never be coming to that waters again.
But what if their leadership is scared about a revolution or coup or otherwise being removed from office and possibly killed? They wouldn't care about the consequences they would need a major win.
Harm trade for who? We rely on China for way too much stuff, how long do you think the American public will be ok with another war once the shelves are really empty? We will crack long before they do from losing that money. They will just up trade with Russia and Iran to make up some of the difference. Besides, Biden already said America is for the One China policy, that means Taiwan belongs to China. I’m all set fighting China while we spend billions and billions on a proxy war in Ukraine that we instigated. You think inflation is bad now, or gas prices? Think it through before going war hungry mad.
I'd say it's hard to understand why the people of China and Russia tolerate their state leaders... but then I remember tiamen square and Russias imprisonment of pretty much anyone speaking the truth or negatively of Russia at all I have pity for those people, but I hope they rise up soon and take action
I don't know much about history, but the parts that I do know have shown people rising up only happens after the BS has been allowed to start. People will see it and not believe it, or don't want to take action. Until they're forced to. And it will often take outside nations to shut down a bad government. America is the only country I know of to have the people fight a government by themselves as the people and win. Even then, we were using the same tools as the government, and new tactics they didn't think of. Nowadays the technological difference between citizens and their governments might as well be 100 years and they know all of history's tactics and how to use them and fight against them. It'd take an armed, tough minded and bodied, and highly numbered people to take on their government, even more so than it ever has.
@@arvinaguila2156 Go learn a bit more about history. West has done some bad stuff but you're a clown if you think you'd be better off in either Russia or China right now
You can't believe all the western propaganda. The CCP pulled millions of Chinese out of poverty relatively quickly. Just compare the 70's when they weren't even relevant globally to today, it's an insane transformation.
Because they believe that their leaders are saints. Because they believe that human nature is good and can be made better. Because they believe that a better world can be made by humans.
I'm just so sick of war today. Ukraine, Syria, Palestine, etc. You'd think that by the 21st century we'd be able to solve problems without violence but here we are
The sentiment is understandable, but please remember that nobody wants this fight except China. Xi specifically is the only one that wants to invade Taiwan, whether the peaceful Taiwanese people want it or not. He can easily just back off and chill out, then we can have this one less war to worry about. But that's the problem isn't it? Bullies will come to hurt you, whether you like it or not. The only thing you can do is either be ready to defend yourself, or be conquered and killed.
china and taiwan's economies are so tightly tied up to each other I don't think they could ever justify it, but then russia and ukraine's economies were tightly tied together as well
@@donbenjamin6459 the difference is how much china believes in their military, and how much more difficult it is to amphibiously invade across some pretty choppy waters, and again how the ends don't really justify the means
@@AsbestosMuffins China isn't going to cross multiple oceans. Stop with this bullshit of amphibious landings. China will easily level the entire Taiwan with thousands of missiles just past the strait.
Yes you are right. However, you appear to be a reasonable person. Do you think Xi is a reasonable person? Some used to believe Putin is a reasonable person. Tyrants are funny that way, especially when it's only other people's blood they are spilling.
Just throwing it out there,china couldn't run those plants even if they had to due to their misunderstanding of the production process. You'd literally need to keep those engineers alive at gunpoint for them to be of any use
Just want to put in my 2 cents. As of yesterday, (10/02/2023) the RAF, Australian and US air force took part in the largest Allied Air exercise over Asia in history. Think we're all thinking "when's it all going down" when we put on the news these days.
I have an inkling that the more China feels military might is the only way to reintegrate Taiwan and that the United States will get involved. The more likely China will pull a Japan and attack US Pacific assets first in order to allow themselves breathing room with Taiwan. This is why strategic ambiguity was important because giving China any sense of hope the US wouldn’t get involved would help prevent a first strike option.
You can thank the ex-president for that. Because he gave a precedent that he would intervene in China, it forces everyone who wants to be president to do the same because to not do so would scare Taiwanese voters in the US.
@@resileaf9501 lmao that's a reach. The CCP hasn't invaded Taiwan since the end of the Chinese civil war, because it was implied the U.S. would defend Taiwan in the case of a CCP invasion.
Love this channel and appreciate the attention to detail. One small thing. You refer to China’s current leader as “Xi Jian Ping” and former leader as “Mao Zi Dong” but you refer to the KMT leader as “Kai Chek Chiang”. The KMT’s leader’s last name is Chiang, so to keep with your main naming convention, he should be referred to as “Chiang Kai Chek”. Just a small detail. Keep up the great work!
Yeah, that kinda drove me mad. It's Zedong Mao, Ping Xi Jin and Kaichek Chen or Mao Zedong, Xi Jin Ping and Chen Kai-chek. Mixing the two styles just seems weird
Why we use that system (surname first, given name second) in English, only for Asian names, is beyond me. Imagine if we did the same for non-Asian names. Stalin Joseph, Biden Joseph, and Trump Donald sound completely off. Come to think of it, we put a comma to make the distinction. Biden, Joseph vs Joseph Biden. Two different ways of displaying the same name, but there is no confusion which is the surname.
@@Lucasp110 Agreed. The consistency is a problem over the whole English language. It took me years to understand that Kim was the last name of Kim Jong-il.
@@stevenbaksh5545 yeeah, and india & america still belong to the british monarch! & Italy also holds the ancient claim over most of the mediterranian! ...and the list goes on🤓
@@mho... that still does not make sense because the fact is the former government of China ran to Taiwan and they were in a civil war with the current government of China so Taiwan is still a part of China but not the PRC but it's still Chinese land and 95% of the population of Taiwan is Han Chinese
You miss 3 key strategic points (1) Nearly all the advanced semiconductors are designed in the USA (2) a stand off naval blockade would be imposed on China, not close to their shores, but through the straits of Mallaca and the Indian Ocean (3) if the prc controls Taiwan, they also control the second island chain which makes it much easier to exert control over the entire SCS. Something like 60% of the world trade transits the SCS: we cannot let the prc control it.
First of all its 21% .If you remove a sanctioned China from that trade its like 2% of the world trade and it ll mostly impact Vietnam, Singapore, Indonesia, Japan and South Korea.Its China that has the problem of being cut off not the other way around.But now with the sanctions on Russia, their main weakness is gone, they dont need to import fuel from the straits much, Russia sells it to em cheaper via land.Its the only thing they are missing, energy.People keep talking about how sanctions will wreck em, wtf they think that will do to the world economy?If you are European you can see how much smaller sanctions created economic havoc to every EU citizen.
You hit that nail on the head with the fact that semiconductors are a major key to the world's economy, and that Taiwan is right in the center of that. While the US and Europe (and TSMC) scramble to build high-end factories outside of Taiwan, the Chinese look longingly at the Taiwan-based, best-in-the-world factories. They would Love to control them, and the world. And, to be accurate, the Chinese are not "violating Taiwanese airspace". They are pushing into the Taiwanese ID zone. Not a violation, but it forced Taiwan air assets to scramble interceptors.
China can literally just back down and not do this. Everybody else is just scrambling to try to defend themselves against Xi's global-level aggressions. It's literally up to Xi right now. Just chill out bro.
"Reunification" is a bit of a misnomer, since Taiwan has never been under the control of the PRC. It was a Japanese colony when the PRC was established, and was ceded to the ROC at the end of WW2. Using the CCP's terminology only helps give credibility to their specious claims over Taiwan. Words like "conquest" would be more appropriate.
Well, the CCP likely doesn’t dispute that either. They would argue that it’s “reunification” in the sense that it once belonged to the Chinese state, rather than their particular government, and is now ruled by a rival claimant to that state.
@@teresabenson3385 There are very few aborigines in Taiwan because they have lived in the mountains for a long time. About 97% of the people in Taiwan are Chinese, the difference is that some went to Taiwan earlier (such as the Ming and Qing Dynasties in China), and some came later (the KMT who retreated to Taiwan after the civil war in 1949)
Japan’s increasing military strength could serve as a deterrent against Chinese aggression towards Taiwan. Japan, an island nation that imports a significant amount of resources and agricultural products, delivered by ships, some of which pass through the Taiwanese Strait, Japan would have a lot to lose if China were to take over Taiwan. Appreciate your work Simon, from South Africa
And china can free itself from beeing held hostage from the US. When taiwan falls to China, than the US is no longer capable of completly blockading chinese trade routes. China so far only lives to the mercy of the US sadly.
He doesn't manage them he reads the scripts. Shell Harris manages them. Still impressive though for sure. One man couldn't do even a quarter of this by himself just simply due to time constraints. Wasn't intending to be rude or condescending just wanted to give credit to the team that keeps it running in the background. Thanks Simon and team!
@@mattcromwell4308 very true, you can just look at simon and tell he lives in a super organized manner 😅. I have a lot of nostalgia for Simon videos lol. I was watching him on toptenz for ... I wanna say about half a decade or close to it when that was the only channel for years and years. Then I remember Brain blaze and today i found out came out and shortly after that the floodgates opened. Simon and team definitely contribute a lot to my entertainment and education on niche topics and historical events. Definitely much appreciated. Although I will say I have found more than few mistakes on some of the historical content but it's bound to happen , no one is perfect and that's why its always great to have multiple sources!
I have no idea what you keep using the phrase “reunify Taiwan” Taiwan is not and has never been part of the consolidated Chinese state. I think the word you’re looking for is colonial invasion, imperial takeover, annexation, etc…
🤣 Simon on underpants and their contents: "Well there's actually 3 main parts, but two of them we'll call one group." Simon how do you get your head so smooth every day? I need you to get back to me with that advertisement!
Taiwan has the greatest kind of defense: its geography. Taiwan north and western coast have just a few places where China could use as a landing place, knowing that, Taiwan needs only to strengthen the defense of those spots to make the landings very costly to China. US and Japan know this too. The way I see it, Taiwan existence is something that benefits Xi politically. Xi can use Taiwan as propaganda and as a diversion to local problems. Something goes bad at home? Put Taiwan "threat" in every news and people will have a distraction. I believe it is in Xi's best interest to keep Taiwan as an independent state instead of committing to a very costly invasion for now.
Taiwan can make it costly for China but ultimately can't win. This is also a known fact. And after all that, I am very sceptical about the condition of Taiwan. Nobody wants to become another Ukraine. There is no point in it. I am pretty sure Taiwanese don't want to fight till the last man standing.
I hear this a lot, and while I would love to agree, unfortunately, this is a double edged sword. Yes, it would take a lot from China to invade Taiwan, the truth is, that is exactly what they are building towards. At the same time, please remember that the Taiwanese really don't have anywhere to run and hide to. If a blockade is in place, all ships or airplanes within that blockade would be shot down or sunk. Taiwan, being an island, rely heavily on outside imports for support. Therefore siege warfare here against the Taiwan island is a very credible option. Something that, when they conducted their first ever live fire drill, proved that that's exactly what they are planning to do at least. To me, there are two take-aways from their live-fire exercise: The first is that Taiwan absolutely must prepare against a siege against the island. The second is that Taiwan is absolutely dependent on outside military help to break any would-be blockade. That means direct combat action the US and any other allies willing to actually fight.
Unless China has a shit ton of assault landing craft, a conventional invasion would be problematic. An extensive barrage to level the major cities would risk the industrial assets that would be a major goal of any conflict.
In WW2, the US and the British commandeered thousands of privately own ships such as yachts, cargo ships, and merchant ships for military purposes such as Dunkirk and transporting the North Atlantic seas. China now has the largest merchant and cargo ship fleet in the world. They will commandeer that fleet to transport troops across the Taiwan strait. Militaries never put much emphasis on building transport and assault ships because of this tactic.
Agreed. China would be foolish to try to rule over the ashes. Controlling Taiwan's semiconductor manufacturing base would be an important factor in wanting to take the island with minimal damage. We've seen how difficult it is to launch a large scale amphibious assault to project an invasion landing force and have boots on the ground to actually hold territory. Sending missiles into civilian centers like Russia has been doing to Ukraine would not have any desired effect of holding territory aside from pissing off the people of the targeted nation and hardening their resolve. The Taiwanese military and its people would fight fiercely to defend their home, and there are limited number of beach landing sites on the island with much of it being rocky cliffs.
@@JohnMurphy-wf2is Agreed. However, the number of ships the CPC could commandeer is enormous; Taiwan needs a LOT of surface to sea missiles to sink them and there are also anti-missile missiles. A landing on Taiwan will in all likelihood become a disaster for the PLA. But also for Taiwan.
im surprised japan wasn't mentioned though they have been slow about it they have been ramping up there capabilities to counter china as well and would not simply sit back and let china do whatever it wants and if i remember right i think they even said they would intervene if china acts
Meanwhile Germany is quietly undergoing the largest mobilization of it's forces and wartime production we have seen since WWI. They're ready for the 4th Reich.
Regarding the taking of the outer islands as a move is really only possible with the Kinmen island off Xiamen, Matsu island off Fuzhou due to their closeness to China and the Pratas and Taiping due to their distance from Taiwan in the South China sea. The rest of the islands mentioned are too closed to Taiwan for a sudden invasion without Taiwanese intervention. The sudden taking of these island do have implication on violating the status quo which was always mentioned regarding the cross strait issue by US, China, Taiwan, and everybody else. The status quo is that Taiwan do no declare independence, China shall no start an invasion. So obviously if the CCP decide to take any of the island, it would be breaking the status quo they've been asking people to uphold, it would be akin to starting an invasion on Taiwan anyway. As to the asymmetric warfare, I do agree with it except the part that asking Taiwan to forgo any build up of conventional military forces. Taiwan need airforce and navy to keep its sea land of communication open for supplies to come in, and so while the airforce and navy would be destroyed quite rapidly in the beginning of the war, however long they could survive improves whatever chance Taiwan had.
About the Chinese Civil War, the nationalist were the ones doing the most fighting (and dying). The Communists marshalled their strength(Mao thanked Japan to speed up the takeover).
*Fun facts about China (PRC) and Taiwan (ROC)* 1. China and Taiwan use different writing systems, Taiwan uses *_traditional_*_ chinese_ while China uses *_simplified_*_ chinese_ (so that literature and history can't be understood by newer generations) 2. Most of Taiwan follows Buddhism, Taoism and other religions, whereas religion is banned in China, most of the people are atheists. 3. Food, culture, traditions and literature from pre-communist China still survive in Taiwan, whereas China has actively eliminated them from the mainland. 4. Taiwan was amongst the best countries to handle the 2019 pandemic and wanted to share their model to the world but China blocked these approaches through WHO. 5. Taiwan manufactures the most semiconductors and high end computer chips in the world and China provides the most raw materials used in these chips, so in a way they're codependent on one another, however the first thing Taiwan will do if China ever invades is to blow up these fabs that makes the chips. 6.Taiwan has unhindered access to the Pacific Ocean while China is surrounded by many countries before their ocean's access. 7. Taiwanese (ROC) were the ones who fought Imperial Japan during WW2, and once weakened after the war they were actually made to flee by their opportunistic rivals. People who condemn this underhanded coup refer to China as *EAST TAIWAN* If you didn't know some or all of these facts then which amongst them was the most interesting?
The most unexpectable was the 4th, the other ones were known for me; and also it should be added that Taiwanese Chinese consist of two groups of settlers by time: the first are descendants of Chinese lived in Taiwan by 1949 and the second are descendants of political refugees from the CCP's regime; ethnically Taiwanese Chinese belong to South Chinese groups and speak not only Mandarin but also South Chinese languages/dialects (mainly Hakka and Hokkien); during the Japanese period some Taiwanese Chinese from the earlier group of settlers served in Japanese military troops and civic administrations, so after joining KMT China with Taiwan they were persecuted by Chiang Kai-shek's goverment; after the liberalization in Taiwan Chiang Kai-shek was denied as a national hero and Kuomintang stopped to be the one significant political party.
@@ploykickshaw9842 lol nothing there is false unless proven otherwise, you sound just like a flat-earther, spread you propaganda elsewhere or else your fake-fact comments will be deleted just like how it was here. super lol
You are forgetting spies, saboteurs, militia groups, double agents, special forces, stealth technology, nukes, size of the border that must be defended, paranoia, plus many other things that I can easily point out
I bought 5 pairs of sheath undies over the last year. They're great. They'll only last about 18 months if you wear an individual pair about once a week, machine washing and drying them between each use
Oh well. In Europe was the happening, 99 red balloons released up in the sky, when berlin wall was standing tall. I might be wrong, but this balloon was quite different? Opinions?
Yeah, China is already conducting guerilla style political and economic warfare against the Philippines. Should China decide to make a move against Taiwan, they need to make sure that the Philippines would not try anything to get in the way. Now, both the Philippines and the US know this, and that is why the Philippines has agreed to let the US navy to double their naval presence in northern Phil, as well as conducting joint military exercises. And that's before we even talk about the Chinese artificial islands in the South China sea. Needless to say, the Chinese aggression against Taiwan isn't a Taiwan-only problem. Everybody major country in the southeast will be affected, from South Korea, Japan, all the way down to Philippines and even Australia, and even Vietnam!
@@Pouncer_Fox that's what i've been worried about like, definitely we gonna choose either china or the us. Personally, I'd say the Americans. But sure is china so near to us, we wouldn't guarantee a full backed up counter measures from the US Pacific fleet. But our ties with Taiwan cannot be ignored we would aid probably like refugees or economical stuff but a conflict with our country against the chinese is a one sided conclusion.
@@jude6963 The problem with the Chinese is that, like you said, if Taiwan falls, the Philippines is next. It's like making a deal with a scorpion and hoping it won't sting you as well. It will. Best thing to do is to all work together and try to make sure nobody gets stung in the first place. China is too big for anyone in the southeast to take on alone, but together is different story.
@@Pouncer_Fox america's presence mostly works all the time to deteriorate any further escalations just like in the past, but time's different now. China's in full swing and can potentially go toe to toe with the big bois. Further escalating the potentials of an invasion and the rest of Asia might suffer from this, if by any means a miracle neighboring countries like Japan, SK, vietnam, Indonesia and us here in the Philippines to not get involved then we would still feel that big impact economically speaking. Sanctions just like with Russia can cripple the Global trade and inflations might rise if this invasion is to occur.
I absolutely love the unbiased telling of all sides of every story by Simon and his research team! Thank you for the giving it to you straight approach to every topic you cover. Well done and keep it coming!
Sadly, that's only for pure occupation. If Xi decided to take the attrition route like Putin, where eradication of the civilian populace is not only acceptable, but is deliberately sought after, then well, he would not need quite as many.
IIRC Chinese names have the surname first, then the first name, so I'm guessing it was related to that. I've never heard it pronounced that way, though.
If China were smart, they'd realize Taiwan wouldn't be worth the trouble. Besides, if their military were entirely focused there, other nations could take advantage of that distraction. India could occupy and liberate Tibet and Tibet can declare their independence from China. South Korea can finally take out North Korea, reuniting the peninsula under the South's form of government. The CCP's arrogance will be their downfall.
Don't forget the Phillipines getting the opportunity to take the Spratlys and all those man-made islands in the South China Sea. With the Red Fleet sunk at the bottom of the Taiwan Strait, they wouldn't be able to stop them. But that leads me to a different point. All this posturing towards Taiwan might be a ruse. Their real target might be somewhere else, like Outer Manchuria, if not all of Eastern Siberia. At the end of the day, that land will be a lot more useful to mainland China than little Taiwan. Time will tell.
Are you able to talk about why Taiwan's political party (DPP) that was lead by Tsai Ing-Wen was out voted in favor of a less China-Taiwan tension causing party. Tsai Ing-Wen immediately resigned.
I am not Simon, but what I can tell you is that China heavily funds a lot of pro-china political parties in Taiwan. They are constantly trying to sway Taiwan's popular opinions towards re-unification via the carrot and the stick. In short, China economically reward anyone who wants to re-unify, and economically punishes anyone who doesn't. China's economy is vast enough that such leverage is possible. Unfortunately, in the latest Taiwanese mid-term elections, the majority of the voting districts have been won by pro-china parties, and as a result, president Wen had to resign as the majority speaker of the parliament. However, she is currently still Taiwan's president until the next coming election cycle. However, the fact that the majority of districts have turned pro-china does not bode well for her chances in the near future. I for one hope that Taiwan will not waiver against Chinese aggression and meddling. However, considering that Taiwan is the small fish in this big pond, such a sentiment is admittedly a big ask.
@@Pouncer_Fox You can look up Johnny Harris, a famous journalist; he shows a timeline and mapping of a plethora of US funded and initiated coup's and separatist movements / protests with actual weapons, economic funding and military engagement. They have even placed communists back as leader as long as they followed US demands. If you look at the recent timeline of the last 5 years, they have majorly increased the information war and essentially armed / funded everyone in the region against China. Major news spreading about Hong Kong protests, inciting rebellion in the western region of China, and funding protests or individuals that go against China. I think the reality is that the people of Taiwan have spoken and they are looking for better relations with China, which I believe is a good thing.
A few corrections: China doesn't have the "One China Policy"; that belongs to the United States, which states that the U.S. doesn't take a stance but that the conflict should be resolved peacefully, with respect to people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait. Essentially, the PRC can't unilaterally determine Taiwan's future. The PRC has the "One China Principle," which states that Taiwan is an inseparable part of China; the United States merely acknowledges that the PRC has the "One China Principle." This doesn't mean they support it or adhere to it. Additionally, the term 'reunification' is incorrect, as the two entities have never been united unless we go back to the 1800s with the Qing Dynasty. Moreover, the CCP has never ruled Taiwan. Unification would be more appropriate, as the PRC looks to annex Taiwan. 'Mainland' in a post-modern context is also problematic because it implies that the two sides are one entity. While there may be strong economic connections, which can be said about any country and the PRC at this point, Taiwan has its own military, currency, passports, political system, elected officials, and most importantly, the PRC has no jurisdiction or control over any of them. To clarify the point about 'independence,' Taiwanese aren't seeking independence from the PRC. Taiwan already has de facto independence and hasn't been ruled by the PRC in any way. Many Taiwanese would simply like to rid their country of the ROC moniker and the constitution that was forced upon them. Understanding modern-day Taiwan requires nuance, given the complexity of Taiwanese history and the PRC's efforts to coerce the world into adopting its perspective and obfuscate the situation.
We also may want to mention, that the PRC imports most of its food and energy. If the oil and food supplies are interrupted, the PRC does not have sufficient naval power to do anything about it. Despite having a large number of ships, most of them are small and would not stand a chance asserting any power outside the China sea. I do not think the US will directly involve themselves into a conflict, but it will provide Taiwan with any weapon they need. Most certainly the US will establish a naval blockade of the PRC. The rest of the world would stop trading with China, very much to their own harm, but this move will send the PRC back to the stone age. At the moment at least the PRC is not sufficiently advanced to prosper without western technology. Furthermore, time is not on the side of the PRC. Their population is aging faster than any other population on earth. The only possible approach would be a negotiated take-over of Taiwan. After all the PRC is Taiwan's largest trading partner.
@@Rjsjrjsjrjsj I actually worked in China in the early 90. I lived in Singapore for years and my ex wife was half Chinese. This qualifies me to have an opinion on Chinese culture as well as the "way of doing things". It is very different from the west. And you are correct, Peter Zeihan has one of the most realistic World-view of any economic consultants far and wide.
They don't have the sealift capability at the moment to do it effectively but give them a couple of years and they will. News of Japan's increased military spending might force things through quicker though.
One needs to remember the extraordinary cat and mouse game played with Germany as to where the allied invasion would take place. If the Germans knew where in France the Allies would land they would have concentrated defenses and likely a different outcome. In this case, everyone would both see it coming and know where it was going.
Not as good as your Ukraine analyses have been, but appreciated nonetheless. I learned a couple things. My feeling is that the risks and costs of a Taiwan invasion outweigh the benefits so dramatically as to render an invasion virtually inconceivable. Of course, as the Princess Bride teaches us, the inconceivable can happen. If China is going to do it, they have to do it SOON. The US is entering about a 10-year period when it's going to be at a bit of a low-ebb in terms of military power. Alot of it's military systems are aging and refresh programs are underway, but not expected to bear fruit for about a decade. There are ship retirement and building efforts that have lags between them producing a slightly diminished naval capability. And of course, everything happening in Ukraine has drained some of the West's stockpiles. But China has so many problems FAR more important than Taiwan. It's demographic crisis. Housing crisis. Financial sector crisis. The pain of ending Zero-COVID. Global trends are for companies to do on-shoring, pulling operations out of China in favor of returning to western counties. China continues to struggle with high levels of corruption (albeit not at Russian levels...probably. Hard to know since China lies about all of it's data). And Taiwan would be SO MUCH HARDER to take than Ukraine. Ukraine and Russia share HUGE land borders. The terrain is flat and easy to navigate. Taiwan is mountainous. The weather and seas make an amphibious landing only viable at a couple times a year. The cliffs in many places mean there's only so many viable landing spots. That's in addition to the stuff mentioned in the video. Given the west's sprawling sanctions and aid to Ukraine, a country that isn't even all that important to the west, the notion that it wouldn't do FAR MORE to defend Taiwan would be hopelessly optimistic thinking. The CCP's hold on power (and Xi's in particular) is based on the illusion of competence. The deal they've made with Chinese citizens is that they're the technocrats that pulled much of the country out of the abject poverty of the Mao era and before. Do you want liberty or rice on the table? But the fallout from an invasion of Taiwan would undermine this illusion of competence. The one argument I can see is that Xi and the CCP have already wrecked the illusion of competence, and in a desperate attempt to salvage their rule, they look to nationalist pride. Nothing brings a country together like a good war. I think Xi is rational enough to see how risky a strategy that is. He needs to saber-rattle because it's part of his nationalist brand, but one would have to be really dumb to launch this invasion. I know alot was made out of the recent wargame that concluded the US would pay a heavy price defending Taiwan from China....but the US still WON every scenario. The price paid by China was HIGHER. And that's BEFORE sanctions and the disconnection from the global economy that would follow. Invading Taiwan would be an even dumber idea for China than invading Ukraine was for Russia. Just an opinion.
To be fair though, at this point in time, the invasion of Taiwan is purely hypothetical, and therefore, details remain scant and speculative at best. Regardless, I am grateful for Simon to bring this subject to light. The plight and the survival of literal millions of innocent men, women, and children on Taiwan are hanging in the balance over this very question. The Ukranians have suffered enough, and now another tyrant wants to add the Taiwanese to the suffering as well. There is one key difference that wasn't brought up and it is that, due to the various southeast nations being packed so tight together, it is possible that it would likely encroach on other nations' sovereignty as well, especially Japan and possibly the Philippines. In other words, this could easily escalate to actual WW3, and the scary part is, China is very well aware of this and is planning to fight all fronts if necessary. And that is a good part of the reason why they are trying to build their military up as big as it is. This, unlike Ukraine, which has enough land for Russian anyway to try to contain the fighting. As insane as it is for China to risk WW3, tyrants not known to be rational decision makers. That is why Taiwan, and all neighboring countries, need to and are taking the Chinese threat seriously. If Xi calls for actual war, it is most likely going to be WW3.
looks like you have good logic, but bad data. but, I understand the sentiment because your media pushing their point of view since you are born. so, this kind of opinion is very much expected.
@@Pouncer_Fox actually, china & taiwan relation is fine. until US create the tension between the two. because taiwan is the last part (after Xinjiang and Hongkong, mentioned in 1995 CIA declassified file) that can be used to disturb china.
@@breadnewbie6326 If China and Taiwan relation is fine, then why does China publicly come out and threaten military invasion? The more you talk, the more I am convinced that you are a Chinese troll.
@@Pouncer_Fox before, the unification are discussed many times peacefully. until US and others violate the 1 china policy, and so on. now, the current taiwan government changed because taiwan people don't want to keep the tension between taiwan and china increased. you can see that the taiwanese people want more peaceful relationship with china like before.
I completely understand the sentiment, but please keep in mind that Ukranians also have families. Tyrants will do tyrant things, because it's only the death and suffering of literal millions of others, but not themselves directly. So, why should they care, if it means getting what they want? I know I keep saying this, but let us all hope for the best, but be prepared for the worst.
Interesting video. You didn’t really mention the part of history how Hong Kong was originally a part of China and how the UK literally took the territory from China by force but I guess that’s not really important.
Sure, I'm not a fan of British colonialism, but they did return Hong Kong peacefully. On top of that, they handed over what China considered a crown jewel at the time, where HK alone was generating 10% of China's entire GDP. Again, not saying I agree with colonialism, because I don't, but it's not like UK treated HK all that badly at all, compared to what China has done to it now.
For Taiwan to be a rebellious province, it would had to have been part of the country it was supposedly rebelling against in the first place! PRC hasnever had control or sovereignty over Taiwan. It is like USA trying to argue England is a rebellious province because many years ago they used be be part of the same country, but the Brits won't let Americans walk in and take over their government offices! This claim should hardly even been mentioned as if it could even possibly be true; even CCP supporters know it is a farce and a lie to justify invasion and subjugation of free Taiwan people.
When you said, "... [China] commands one of the most powerful armed forces on the Planet." I couldn't help laughing since the CCP is filled with the most Powerful and Corrupt men in China. The Russian army was thought to be the most powerful army, and we wouldn't have realized how unprepared they were for war if Ukraine hadn't fought back. With western equipment, the outnumbered Ukrainian armed forced have the ENTIRE Russian army at a stalemate. The CCP has one of the most powerful armed forces on paper... in reality, well, time will tell.
Are you doing what an individual does and what a government does are very different we also need Taiwan cause no one else makes chips and super conductors as well as them
Taiwan is like if the confederacy had escaped to Cuba or something and set up their own govt. There's no way the US would allow that for as long as China has laid off Taiwan.
very wrong analogy because cuba is/was not part of US. if taiwan was not part of china, there's no way the "taiwan government" let KMT come and rule the island.
How would a Chinese invasion of Taiwan be the fault of Biden and his administration? Explain it in detail, please, for the ones who don't pay too much attention to politics.
@@justinweber4977 Some people are just extremely ignorant, and I do apologize on behalf of us fellow Americans. The simple fact is, Biden came out and said "yes" to defending Taiwan, and Nancy Pelosi's high profile visit to Taiwan speaks far more volume and truth than any Republicans I have seen so far. Now, I'm not against Republicans here. I'm just saying the Democrats have already publicly voiced their support to Taiwan, and I am sure the Taiwanese very much appreciated this gesture. So, to speak ill of the Democrats in this case just literally makes no sense, but that's how brain-washed some people are.
Conducting an amphibious operation is very complicated and needs every I dotted and T crossed. It wasn't until the allied invasion of southern France that the allies had it down. North Africa, Sicily, Italy and the Normandy landings had some flaws that by only a few strokes of luck they stuck. Aircraft, warships cannot take an island. That takes troops and transport craft are the most vulnerable of military equipment.
@skydragon23101979 no one can be sure what's in a dictators mind. They can be self destructive as no one close ever says you shouldn't do that. Unless they like prison or death.
@@billmoretz8718 Erm… I do’t know what you are getting at. My reply was simply to your point that amphibious operation is very complicated but that complication has been erased by Pelosi’s visit and it would be made simpler if Speaker Kevin visit’s Taiwan.
@skydragon23101979 dictators can act erratic and a visit by anyone won't change that. The best way not to be caught off guard is to expect anything and plan for it. Often the difference between success and failure is in the planning.
@@billmoretz8718 Got nothing to engage with you since you refuse to acknowledge even the point I am making and steer the conversation away from the topic at hand.
Imagine if instead of starting ww2 by attacking Poland, Germany had waited until Japan had started fighting the united states and italy was already losing in north africa, then kicked things off by trying to invade Wales. That's pretty much what it'd look like
Go to sheathunderwear.com and use the code “Warographics” to get 20% off your order!
What is your opinion about giving nukes to taiwan?
I think its a great idea. MAD works. Especially if its an addition to the economic MAD in form of Semiconductors.
China will try everything. Especially useful idiots. Soft Power is the new winning strategy. Its unbelievable that a state like china can fool people in this way.
They buy people mainly.
EDIT: I am talking about stationary nukes. No long range missiles.
I hope they have some devices covertly.
If an Invasion force gets reduced to ashes in 1 week on taiwanese ground...well than the whole operation is over...especially politically.
There has to be a way to hijack their internet to inform the people.
Great video
The ROC would have to change its constitution in order for it to declare independence. As such, there are still quite a long way to go, especially the pan-green will likely to lose power next year.
Something often overlooked or at least not mentioned is that power corrupts. Jinping has managed to become life long dictator, remove his largest rivals, and have surrounded himself with absolute yes men. When this happens, and it always happens in dictatorships of all flavors, the dictator starts to be a true believer. What I mean is they start to believe their own propaganda. When this happens to expect the dictator to act in its own self interest, economic or otherwise, would be a mistake. Belief is extremely powerful and does have an effect in the material world. As Jinping further embraces the new "superiority" of the Chinese as a race, and country the likelihood of further horrors like we are seeing with Uyghurs will spread. In the end it doesn't matter if they don't actually have the ability to actual win the war in Taiwan, all that will matter is the dictator will believe he is able, and no one will tell him otherwise. Putin is a good example of this, and we've seen the results. Putin believed Ukraine would largely welcome him and his soldiers with open arms and the war would be over in a short order because he like i said, started to become a true believer. From many sources I've heard the push back Jinping will face from his inner circle is even less than Putin experienced. Dictators in these conditions NEVER act rationally. They act as they believe.
Great point, the same thing happened with Putin. He legitimately thought that Ukraine wanted to be liberated, and was only surrounded by yes men who confirmed his beliefs.
@@andyyang3029 That's amazing. You know what Putzin thinks? What's he thinking right now?
🙄
That's the thing that worries me. I don't see an invasion within the next year with the spotlight on Taiwan thanks to Ukraine. Things are still a bit shaky in China thanks to COVID and I have no doubt the zero COVID policy protests have shook Xi. However give it a few years once Xi thinks he got a hold on China again and the West looks complacent he then may invade. One thing to look out for is a large turnover of high ranking military and government officials, the type of people who would step in and say "This is a bad idea" to Xi.
@@Rjsjrjsjrjsj His actions support it. He called it a limited military operation for a reason. I seriously doubt anyone could say things have turned out all according to Putin and his military plans.
If it helps the same thing happened to many of us in the US with Iraq. Many of us really believed they had WMDs and where a threat. Recognizing that, is the only way to have at least a chance of moving forward and doing better. Main difference in that case is I do not believe our leadership in the US believed in the propaganda, they knew it was a lie, and in some ways that makes it worse.
@@SEAZNDragon Not to mention dictators often use war as a distraction and unifier against inner turmoil. The COVID protests and likely coming economical woes make war in the near future more likely.
A salient historical point: In WW2 during his island-hopping campaign, Gen Douglas MacArthur was faced with the possibility of taking Taiwan. The only resistance was 20,000 starving Japanese troops. BUT....when faced with Taiwan's terrain and the difficulty of landing on the island, Army and Navy war planners estimated that they would need a minimum of 400,000 marines to take the island. And this was at the absolute historical zenith of the US Army and Navy in terms of equipment and manpower. And there are a lot more than 20,000 soldiers on Taiwan today.
Taiwanese troops of today are not the equal of Japanese troops of WWII.
@@planetmikusha5898 Yes....but there are a lot more of them. With our best weapons.
@@planetmikusha5898 uh ya they're significantly better because they have much better weapons and defensive positions as well as a very large amount of international navies ready to jump into a conflict too
Taiwan will do for China what Ukraine is doing for Russia. The only difference being more naval losses and no territory taken what so ever.
@@ricardosmythe2548 China will do a naval blockade. Easiest way to reunite with Taiwan with minimal bloodshed.
There’s one other problem with the “slow erosion” model: China was able to undermine democracy in Hong Kong because it controlled the city. China doesn’t control Taiwan.
C'mon, HK was never a democracy. Which former Governor of Hong Kong was elected by the locals? And no elections of Chief Executive after 1997 were free of Beijing's influence or manipulation. The only thing that was badly eroded is the rule of law.
In Taiwan, the CCP mostly depends on factions of the KMT (nationalist party) as a proxy. The KMT and their allies in Taiwan can be counted on to filibuster defense spending and mobilization Bill's.
We might be overlooking something...
USS Ronald Reagan (CVN 76) is currently the Navy's forward-deployed aircraft carrier in Seventh Fleet. Whereas other carriers are homeported in the U.S. and deploy periodically, USS Ronald Reagan is permanently forward-deployed to Yokosuka, Japan and spends about half of each year at sea.
Have you seen how deeply these carrier groups roll? We're already next door.
When a direct confrontation between 2 superpowers occurs, best believe we’re going to see next generation weaponries that have been classified locked away somewhere in Area 51. 😶
Me personally, I don’t think China is that naive and suicidal so there won’t be a direct confrontation between them and us, and likewise for us…
china has a base in the solomon islands,
been next means nothing when the horse has bolted down the road
@@alt7488 And what can they do with that base? They have limited range to operate from it, it's a vulnerable, stationary target... if it came down to a war that base on the solomons would be deleted pretty swiftly. Not like the US would care what the Solomons had to say about it. :P
@@ThroneOfBhaal it allows the navy to get out and roam the seas .....
just like the ijn did in 1941
and with what missiles will the us use to destroy this base?
@@alt7488
What missiles will the aircraft carrier use? That's a funny question...I guess the 90 fixed wing jets and gunships (helicopters) don't have enough missiles for you? Let's not forget that the USS Ronald Regan isn't floating around by itself. It is apart of the Navy's 7th fleet and they have more than enough missiles to get the job done. That's all without considering the US military bases ready and waiting in Japan.
Yes, Taiwan makes those chips however: the Netherlands makes the machines that make the chips so the process starts in the Netherlands. Biden and the Dutch PM had a meeting about blocking China from being able to purchase the machines to further limit their capacity to possibly manufacture those chips themselves
Plus, it's a manufactured product, not a raw material. As long as the supply chains are in place, semiconductors can be built anywhere. We could build semiconductor manufacturing plants in Detroit if we needed to.
In 1860, the British textile industry was dependent on cotton from the American south. So when the Civil War broke out, the British realized they needed that southern cotton, so they joined the Confederate cause, sent troops to America and helped the south defeat the north, and that's why the south still has a slave-based economy completely dependent upon cotton exports to this day... Oh, wait. No. That's not what happened. The British just started getting their cotton from Egypt and India instead, and they made the south realize their semiconductors... I mean COTTON... wasn't as important as they thought it was.
@@benjauron5873 How much meth did you smoke before typing all that out? Oh, by the way, the North had slaves for 20 years after the Civil War.
@@benjauron5873 Not an exact 1-to-1 situation. Textiles can only be so complex. Semiconductors are a rapidly developing and advancing technology. The problem with domesticating our own chips in the US is that by the time the factories are up and running: what ever could be manufactured in the US will already be obsolete. Same could be said of China.
The time to have had these factories built to manufacture them domestically was 10 years ago. Not today.
@Governor K Oh, it will be a setback, for sure. But only a temporary one. The mainland isn't going to decline to invade Taiwan because of semiconductors, that's silly.
@@TheSuicidalBird you are not wrong here but moves are already being made as we speak to do some of this stuff here. I do believe most of our weapons do not use anything less than 10 nanometers. And the plans in Arizona that TSMC is opening I believe by 2025 will be making three nanometer processes. The stuff until I ask here is already very much capable of producing semiconductors that are military would need perhaps not at scale but the ability to do it to stateside is already here. Anything smaller than 10 nanometers is stuffed that is used for high-end computing in the civilian sector or cell phones. A lot of weapons do not require very complex microchips. And BS that may it could already produce over here. It's just a matter of actually doing it. But yes for future weapons we do not have to industrial capacity here right now
As a small island nation next door to China myself, this was very insightful
Youre a small island nation? ;)
i feel you
Lol Philippines or Japan isn't small nation
And I thought your mum was big.
@@warographics643 ayo 😳
In order for that "slow integration" scenario to happen, Taiwan would have to agree to join the PRC under the "one country-two systems" policy. Fat fucking chance of that happening.
Especially given what happened in Hong Kong. FFS.
Agree completely. Hong Kong was not independent, their Fate was decided by Britain, which had their 99 year lease commitment to uphold. Taiwan is fully independent and masters of their own fate. No way they would give in to China.
Communist China has proven they are incompetent from how they handled covid. Taiwan should be put in charge of all of China.
China PRC tyrannical bullshit has shown it has burnt all bridges of ever an integration will happen.
China bankrolls, rather openly actually, any pro-china and pro-unification political parties in Taiwan. Though they are the minority in Taiwan, these political groups are very alive, very active, and very well-funded as you can imagine. Also, I believe China is very aware that their best chance at re-unification is to simply achieve cultural victory by swaying enough Taiwanese voters to vote yes to re-unification. This is actually credible because they also wage economic warfare. And when people start to starve and things like food starts to get expensive, voters can tend to vote with their stomach....
Would be more accurate to say that Mao ran and hid from the Japanese and Chiang and the nationalists were the ones fighting the Japanese. Then Mao attacked chiang, who was depleted.
Yes! Can't believe I had to check so many comments before I found this. 👍💯
The bastard cowards hid in the mountains while the nationalists bled themselves dry trying to fight off the Japanese. The exceptions to which of the communists were few
A large number of the KMT-troops surrendered to the CPC simply because of corruption. The same corruption due to which the KMT lost the loyalty of the Chinese people in the years after the war.
But yea, the CPC basically hid in caves during the war and only came out when the Japanese were away.
Mao was actually more successful because his guerrilla army was able to destroy or seriously hamper Japanese supply lines Chiang meanwhile aboneded his capital and blew up the river banks of the yellow river to slow down the Japanesre army but he ended up killing close to a million of his own people
That’s called “guerilla warfare.” Perhaps you’ve heard of it? I don’t really see what you’re getting at here. I’ve seen so many people repeat this like parrots as if it was some kind of gotcha, entirely aimlessly.
Imagine invading an island that has been preparing for the situation for 75 years
*74 years since 1949
Weab cope
@@M856BushBurner 🤓
Yes but it also should be counted that the Taiwanese society has been changing, especially last years it became more pacifist so Taiwanese Armed Forces were seriously weakened, as well as French ones by the beginning of WWII (so despite of huge preparations like the Maginot line French were defeated in 1940 by their old enemy who even was won by French in WWI).
But another thing that CCP's China invasion against Taiwan is more like formerly probable Nazi German invasion against the United Kingdom (British forces were weaker than German but the last could not make a fast land-aerial "Blitzkrieg" offensive and at the same time they did not have enough means of delivery of large landing troops together with lack of naval/aerial superiority plus lack of combat training in areas of mass landing operations, exactly by sea on shores with overwhelming coastal defence lines while operations of Fallschirmjäger alone were too costly).
I’m still confused how you got Chiang Kai Shek completely backwards
he put the surname last. rather, the writer did.
he is just reading the script
I feel it's important to note that towards the end of WW2, mao's forces held back to let KMT take the brunt and thus be weaker after Japanese withdrawal.
That’s called “ruthlessly trying to win.”
Good, weaken the fascists
I feel it's important to note that the original Republic of China (in the 1920s and 30s) had a multiparty government where the CCP and KMT were cooperating until Chiang ordered an overnight massacre of CCP leaders all over the country.
@@maccothemillion3558 who were the fascists in this case?
@@charliematts1736 isn't it obvious this guy is calling the kmt fascist
Better to assume that it is inevitable and prepare than assuming it won't happen and be caught flat footed
Absolutely correct. When it's all said and done, the Taiwanese people must prepare to defend themselves, as quickly and as effectively as possible. Only then will they stand any chance at all in maintaining their peace and freedom.
Freedom isn't free, and China isn't going to back down.
In December 2022, TSMC announced the construction of a new chip manufacturing plant in Arizona, and an additional expansion totaling a $40 billion USD investment. In addition, a news report indicated TSMC has enough property in Arizona for six manufacturing plants. It seems to me that diversifying abroad would be a way for TSMC to survive and continue operations even if their home base in Taiwan was destroyed in a war.
Indeed, it would also allow Taiwan move their best tech heads and scientists out of the combat zone as TSMC employees, preventing drastic brain drain which would hamper rebuilding efforts later down the line.
Pretty sure one of the top guys at TSMC have also said that they would rather completely destroy their plants on their own than let them fall into CCP control
will be win win solution: US get TSMC, china get the island.
@@breadnewbie6326
If China captures Taiwan then it will be turned into one massive military nuclear base.
US navy will never be coming to that waters again.
Good luck on having American labors to follow Taiwan's standards.
Not if we make it clear to Beijing that the harms of such an invasion would outweigh the benefits. An invasion would harm trade.
But what if their leadership is scared about a revolution or coup or otherwise being removed from office and possibly killed? They wouldn't care about the consequences they would need a major win.
Harm trade for who? We rely on China for way too much stuff, how long do you think the American public will be ok with another war once the shelves are really empty? We will crack long before they do from losing that money. They will just up trade with Russia and Iran to make up some of the difference. Besides, Biden already said America is for the One China policy, that means Taiwan belongs to China. I’m all set fighting China while we spend billions and billions on a proxy war in Ukraine that we instigated. You think inflation is bad now, or gas prices? Think it through before going war hungry mad.
Never give in Taiwan. ✊💯🇵🇭
let the rebels win!
@@subsubmachine ..
But... the Communists in mainland China are the rebels.
The ROC on Taiwan are the legitimate government of China.
Taiwan number 1
Then you go fight for them. Just like Ukraine. Stop yelling online and do some actual shit.
Taiwan is the true Ruler of China.
Long live a free Taiwan 🇹🇼
lets not let it become the next #freeTibet 😞
Taiwan is free. They just don't have recognition.
@@mho... like you know anything about Tibet.
@@breadnewbie6326 like you know anything about anything i know.
@@mho... of course. if you know, you will not make that comment.
I'd say it's hard to understand why the people of China and Russia tolerate their state leaders... but then I remember tiamen square and Russias imprisonment of pretty much anyone speaking the truth or negatively of Russia at all
I have pity for those people, but I hope they rise up soon and take action
Same with the west
I don't know much about history, but the parts that I do know have shown people rising up only happens after the BS has been allowed to start. People will see it and not believe it, or don't want to take action. Until they're forced to. And it will often take outside nations to shut down a bad government. America is the only country I know of to have the people fight a government by themselves as the people and win. Even then, we were using the same tools as the government, and new tactics they didn't think of. Nowadays the technological difference between citizens and their governments might as well be 100 years and they know all of history's tactics and how to use them and fight against them. It'd take an armed, tough minded and bodied, and highly numbered people to take on their government, even more so than it ever has.
@@arvinaguila2156 Go learn a bit more about history. West has done some bad stuff but you're a clown if you think you'd be better off in either Russia or China right now
You can't believe all the western propaganda. The CCP pulled millions of Chinese out of poverty relatively quickly. Just compare the 70's when they weren't even relevant globally to today, it's an insane transformation.
Because they believe that their leaders are saints. Because they believe that human nature is good and can be made better. Because they believe that a better world can be made by humans.
I'm just so sick of war today. Ukraine, Syria, Palestine, etc. You'd think that by the 21st century we'd be able to solve problems without violence but here we are
🤣
You're delightfully naive
I laughed out loud
Thanks!
The sentiment is understandable, but please remember that nobody wants this fight except China. Xi specifically is the only one that wants to invade Taiwan, whether the peaceful Taiwanese people want it or not. He can easily just back off and chill out, then we can have this one less war to worry about.
But that's the problem isn't it? Bullies will come to hurt you, whether you like it or not. The only thing you can do is either be ready to defend yourself, or be conquered and killed.
china and taiwan's economies are so tightly tied up to each other I don't think they could ever justify it, but then russia and ukraine's economies were tightly tied together as well
A politician : they could be more tight, under my own country.. proceed to declare war
@@donbenjamin6459 the difference is how much china believes in their military, and how much more difficult it is to amphibiously invade across some pretty choppy waters, and again how the ends don't really justify the means
@@AsbestosMuffins
China isn't going to cross multiple oceans.
Stop with this bullshit of amphibious landings.
China will easily level the entire Taiwan with thousands of missiles just past the strait.
Yes you are right. However, you appear to be a reasonable person. Do you think Xi is a reasonable person? Some used to believe Putin is a reasonable person. Tyrants are funny that way, especially when it's only other people's blood they are spilling.
@@AsbestosMuffins i agree
Just throwing it out there,china couldn't run those plants even if they had to due to their misunderstanding of the production process. You'd literally need to keep those engineers alive at gunpoint for them to be of any use
China wouldn't get the chance to use them. The Taiwanese or maybe even the US would destroy/sabotage the equipment before they could occupy.
Yea those factories would be blown up as their engineers are flown to the US.
In reality the Taiwan government is keeping engineers at home through coercive measures
@Jonathan Herz In reality? What measures are the govt using and what proof do you have?
@@Doochos his source is "trust me bro"
Before February 24th, 2022 I’d say 100% yes but now I put it at 60-70%
Not even close, I live in Taiwan I would put it at less than 0.5%.
Just want to put in my 2 cents. As of yesterday, (10/02/2023) the RAF, Australian and US air force took part in the largest Allied Air exercise over Asia in history. Think we're all thinking "when's it all going down" when we put on the news these days.
Your from the future?
@@1_Fish.2_Fish.Red_Fish. February 10th
@@1_Fish.2_Fish.Red_Fish. sorry in Britain we do day/month/year
@@callumreid9206 Don't apologise for writing it the correct way
@@RitchieSacramento88 It's not the correct way.
I have an inkling that the more China feels military might is the only way to reintegrate Taiwan and that the United States will get involved. The more likely China will pull a Japan and attack US Pacific assets first in order to allow themselves breathing room with Taiwan. This is why strategic ambiguity was important because giving China any sense of hope the US wouldn’t get involved would help prevent a first strike option.
You can thank the ex-president for that. Because he gave a precedent that he would intervene in China, it forces everyone who wants to be president to do the same because to not do so would scare Taiwanese voters in the US.
@@resileaf9501 lmao that's a reach. The CCP hasn't invaded Taiwan since the end of the Chinese civil war, because it was implied the U.S. would defend Taiwan in the case of a CCP invasion.
@@themouthofsauron6926 I was talking about why 'strategic ambiguity' is not longer the US doctrine on Taiwan.
Why attack when can buy Clinton obama biden
Better then biden who will let them take it
Love this channel and appreciate the attention to detail. One small thing. You refer to China’s current leader as “Xi Jian Ping” and former leader as “Mao Zi Dong” but you refer to the KMT leader as “Kai Chek Chiang”. The KMT’s leader’s last name is Chiang, so to keep with your main naming convention, he should be referred to as “Chiang Kai Chek”. Just a small detail. Keep up the great work!
Yeah, that kinda drove me mad. It's Zedong Mao, Ping Xi Jin and Kaichek Chen or Mao Zedong, Xi Jin Ping and Chen Kai-chek. Mixing the two styles just seems weird
@@Lucasp110 Literally nobody would understand the former
Why we use that system (surname first, given name second) in English, only for Asian names, is beyond me. Imagine if we did the same for non-Asian names. Stalin Joseph, Biden Joseph, and Trump Donald sound completely off.
Come to think of it, we put a comma to make the distinction. Biden, Joseph vs Joseph Biden. Two different ways of displaying the same name, but there is no confusion which is the surname.
@@jimbo9305 well, the problem here is mostly of consistency
@@Lucasp110 Agreed. The consistency is a problem over the whole English language. It took me years to understand that Kim was the last name of Kim Jong-il.
West Taiwan needs to chill out
they're occupied by communists so they cant
😆
That dosen't make sense its the former government of China that came to Taiwan so it's still China
@@stevenbaksh5545 yeeah, and india & america still belong to the british monarch!
& Italy also holds the ancient claim over most of the mediterranian!
...and the list goes on🤓
@@mho... that still does not make sense because the fact is the former government of China ran to Taiwan and they were in a civil war with the current government of China so Taiwan is still a part of China but not the PRC but it's still Chinese land and 95% of the population of Taiwan is Han Chinese
You do such an amazing job with your team! Thank you for providing all this knowledge ❤️
As a Brit, China’s rhetoric on Taiwan reminds me a lot of British rhetoric on Ireland in the run up to independence.
You miss 3 key strategic points
(1) Nearly all the advanced semiconductors are designed in the USA (2) a stand off naval blockade would be imposed on China, not close to their shores, but through the straits of Mallaca and the Indian Ocean (3) if the prc controls Taiwan, they also control the second island chain which makes it much easier to exert control over the entire SCS. Something like 60% of the world trade transits the SCS: we cannot let the prc control it.
First of all its 21% .If you remove a sanctioned China from that trade its like 2% of the world trade and it ll mostly impact Vietnam, Singapore, Indonesia, Japan and South Korea.Its China that has the problem of being cut off not the other way around.But now with the sanctions on Russia, their main weakness is gone, they dont need to import fuel from the straits much, Russia sells it to em cheaper via land.Its the only thing they are missing, energy.People keep talking about how sanctions will wreck em, wtf they think that will do to the world economy?If you are European you can see how much smaller sanctions created economic havoc to every EU citizen.
I am enjoying these analyses of current events immensely. Thank you 🙂.
You hit that nail on the head with the fact that semiconductors are a major key to the world's economy, and that Taiwan is right in the center of that. While the US and Europe (and TSMC) scramble to build high-end factories outside of Taiwan, the Chinese look longingly at the Taiwan-based, best-in-the-world factories. They would Love to control them, and the world.
And, to be accurate, the Chinese are not "violating Taiwanese airspace". They are pushing into the Taiwanese ID zone. Not a violation, but it forced Taiwan air assets to scramble interceptors.
Love you channel mate.
Please, by all means…
Keep It Up!
😎👍
We largely don’t really know what would happen
We have a idea but not the full picture
*but let’s just hope it doesn’t come to that*
"Hoping to dissuade". That's a very fancy way of saying "Threatened".
Its so tense lately. I feel like we are on the verge of WW3.
The threat of ww3 has long been a spectre since the second World War, just the potential sources of its ignition have changed over the years
we are but it is arguable what the number is since every european war since the discovery of the new world has been fought world wide
@@sicilianknicca_mickygreeneyes The seven years war, The war of Spanish succession, The Crimean war come to mind.
@@sicilianknicca_mickygreeneyes Laughs in Franco Prussian war
China can literally just back down and not do this. Everybody else is just scrambling to try to defend themselves against Xi's global-level aggressions. It's literally up to Xi right now. Just chill out bro.
"Reunification" is a bit of a misnomer, since Taiwan has never been under the control of the PRC. It was a Japanese colony when the PRC was established, and was ceded to the ROC at the end of WW2. Using the CCP's terminology only helps give credibility to their specious claims over Taiwan. Words like "conquest" would be more appropriate.
Well, the CCP likely doesn’t dispute that either. They would argue that it’s “reunification” in the sense that it once belonged to the Chinese state, rather than their particular government, and is now ruled by a rival claimant to that state.
Perhaps true justice is sending the Chinese population of the island back to the mainland, and giving the island back to the native Formosans.
@@teresabenson3385 There are very few aborigines in Taiwan because they have lived in the mountains for a long time. About 97% of the people in Taiwan are Chinese, the difference is that some went to Taiwan earlier (such as the Ming and Qing Dynasties in China), and some came later (the KMT who retreated to Taiwan after the civil war in 1949)
Learn some history.When Taiwan was returned to Republic of China, PRC didn't even exist. PRC was founded after the 4 year long civil war.
Japan’s increasing military strength could serve as a deterrent against Chinese aggression towards Taiwan. Japan, an island nation that imports a significant amount of resources and agricultural products, delivered by ships, some of which pass through the Taiwanese Strait, Japan would have a lot to lose if China were to take over Taiwan. Appreciate your work Simon, from South Africa
我向你保证假如日本人敢加入战斗,世界将用考古方式研究日本人
Then China can finally average its people for the atrocity that Japan committed during WWII......
And china can free itself from beeing held hostage from the US. When taiwan falls to China, than the US is no longer capable of completly blockading chinese trade routes. China so far only lives to the mercy of the US sadly.
@sret7880 that's not justice since the Japanese people today aren't responsible for what happened in WW2.
I think your writer misspelled the Chinese presidents name its actually spelled WINNIE THE POOH
Simon, I absolutely love your description of Sheath underwear lmao. Might try some... make things... more airy lol.
Funny name. Sheath is another word for condom...
*Simon Whistler, the archduke of CZcams*
Simon is truly something else, managing so many channels.
He doesn't manage them he reads the scripts. Shell Harris manages them. Still impressive though for sure. One man couldn't do even a quarter of this by himself just simply due to time constraints. Wasn't intending to be rude or condescending just wanted to give credit to the team that keeps it running in the background. Thanks Simon and team!
Thanks to all that COCAINE YESSSSSS WIHOOOOOOOOOOOO
@@Black-Sun_Kaiser yes, but he must be super organized to manage all this still without spending all day in the office, it's like 20 videos a day lmao
@@mattcromwell4308 very true, you can just look at simon and tell he lives in a super organized manner 😅. I have a lot of nostalgia for Simon videos lol. I was watching him on toptenz for ... I wanna say about half a decade or close to it when that was the only channel for years and years. Then I remember Brain blaze and today i found out came out and shortly after that the floodgates opened. Simon and team definitely contribute a lot to my entertainment and education on niche topics and historical events. Definitely much appreciated. Although I will say I have found more than few mistakes on some of the historical content but it's bound to happen , no one is perfect and that's why its always great to have multiple sources!
@@Black-Sun_Kaiser yeah it happens on occasion, but I guess that's the trade off for producing such high amounts of content. Worth it for me!
Hey Simon! Please make a video on the Battle of Bautzen!
I have no idea what you keep using the phrase “reunify Taiwan”
Taiwan is not and has never been part of the consolidated Chinese state.
I think the word you’re looking for is colonial invasion, imperial takeover, annexation, etc…
well, it was a province of Qing China.
🤣 Simon on underpants and their contents:
"Well there's actually 3 main parts, but two of them we'll call one group."
Simon how do you get your head so smooth every day? I need you to get back to me with that advertisement!
This has very strong flavor of Peter Zeihan's work, I like it.
Taiwan has the greatest kind of defense: its geography. Taiwan north and western coast have just a few places where China could use as a landing place, knowing that, Taiwan needs only to strengthen the defense of those spots to make the landings very costly to China. US and Japan know this too. The way I see it, Taiwan existence is something that benefits Xi politically. Xi can use Taiwan as propaganda and as a diversion to local problems. Something goes bad at home? Put Taiwan "threat" in every news and people will have a distraction. I believe it is in Xi's best interest to keep Taiwan as an independent state instead of committing to a very costly invasion for now.
Yes. I think much of Xi's and previous leaders' propaganda is aimed primarily at its own population.
Taiwan can make it costly for China but ultimately can't win.
This is also a known fact.
And after all that, I am very sceptical about the condition of Taiwan.
Nobody wants to become another Ukraine. There is no point in it.
I am pretty sure Taiwanese don't want to fight till the last man standing.
I hear this a lot, and while I would love to agree, unfortunately, this is a double edged sword.
Yes, it would take a lot from China to invade Taiwan, the truth is, that is exactly what they are building towards.
At the same time, please remember that the Taiwanese really don't have anywhere to run and hide to. If a blockade is in place, all ships or airplanes within that blockade would be shot down or sunk. Taiwan, being an island, rely heavily on outside imports for support. Therefore siege warfare here against the Taiwan island is a very credible option. Something that, when they conducted their first ever live fire drill, proved that that's exactly what they are planning to do at least.
To me, there are two take-aways from their live-fire exercise: The first is that Taiwan absolutely must prepare against a siege against the island. The second is that Taiwan is absolutely dependent on outside military help to break any would-be blockade. That means direct combat action the US and any other allies willing to actually fight.
that's the plan, both side do their own business. until US create tension between the two. the real devil always hide themselves.
@@Pouncer_Fox Agreed
Two systems is now a myth.
Can't trust the words of any lying tyrants.
Unless China has a shit ton of assault landing craft, a conventional invasion would be problematic. An extensive barrage to level the major cities would risk the industrial assets that would be a major goal of any conflict.
In WW2, the US and the British commandeered thousands of privately own ships such as yachts, cargo ships, and merchant ships for military purposes such as Dunkirk and transporting the North Atlantic seas. China now has the largest merchant and cargo ship fleet in the world. They will commandeer that fleet to transport troops across the Taiwan strait. Militaries never put much emphasis on building transport and assault ships because of this tactic.
@@Nesstor01 No surface to sea missiles in WW2.
@@JohnMurphy-wf2is The Submarine has entered WW2 ......
Agreed. China would be foolish to try to rule over the ashes. Controlling Taiwan's semiconductor manufacturing base would be an important factor in wanting to take the island with minimal damage. We've seen how difficult it is to launch a large scale amphibious assault to project an invasion landing force and have boots on the ground to actually hold territory.
Sending missiles into civilian centers like Russia has been doing to Ukraine would not have any desired effect of holding territory aside from pissing off the people of the targeted nation and hardening their resolve.
The Taiwanese military and its people would fight fiercely to defend their home, and there are limited number of beach landing sites on the island with much of it being rocky cliffs.
@@JohnMurphy-wf2is Agreed. However, the number of ships the CPC could commandeer is enormous; Taiwan needs a LOT of surface to sea missiles to sink them and there are also anti-missile missiles. A landing on Taiwan will in all likelihood become a disaster for the PLA. But also for Taiwan.
im surprised japan wasn't mentioned though they have been slow about it they have been ramping up there capabilities to counter china as well and would not simply sit back and let china do whatever it wants and if i remember right i think they even said they would intervene if china acts
Meanwhile Germany is quietly undergoing the largest mobilization of it's forces and wartime production we have seen since WWI.
They're ready for the 4th Reich.
India wasn't mentioned either...
They did mention Japan when naming Pacific allies including Australia, South Korea, Phillipines etc.
@@ostevoostevo8989 India probably wouldn’t intervene over it. Japan has more incentive to.
Japan would be smart not to get involve. I’m pretty sure getting nuke again is not in their agenda.
Short Ans: yes
Long Ans: yes, but there is debate how large the scale would be, and how successful the operation would be.
Regarding the taking of the outer islands as a move is really only possible with the Kinmen island off Xiamen, Matsu island off Fuzhou due to their closeness to China and the Pratas and Taiping due to their distance from Taiwan in the South China sea. The rest of the islands mentioned are too closed to Taiwan for a sudden invasion without Taiwanese intervention.
The sudden taking of these island do have implication on violating the status quo which was always mentioned regarding the cross strait issue by US, China, Taiwan, and everybody else. The status quo is that Taiwan do no declare independence, China shall no start an invasion. So obviously if the CCP decide to take any of the island, it would be breaking the status quo they've been asking people to uphold, it would be akin to starting an invasion on Taiwan anyway.
As to the asymmetric warfare, I do agree with it except the part that asking Taiwan to forgo any build up of conventional military forces. Taiwan need airforce and navy to keep its sea land of communication open for supplies to come in, and so while the airforce and navy would be destroyed quite rapidly in the beginning of the war, however long they could survive improves whatever chance Taiwan had.
Great video as always, I'm loving the more speculative side of things lately, such as the Iran vs USA video and the Nagorno Karabakh.
About the Chinese Civil War, the nationalist were the ones doing the most fighting (and dying). The Communists marshalled their strength(Mao thanked Japan to speed up the takeover).
*Fun facts about China (PRC) and Taiwan (ROC)*
1. China and Taiwan use different writing systems, Taiwan uses *_traditional_*_ chinese_ while China uses *_simplified_*_ chinese_ (so that literature and history can't be understood by newer generations)
2. Most of Taiwan follows Buddhism, Taoism and other religions, whereas religion is banned in China, most of the people are atheists.
3. Food, culture, traditions and literature from pre-communist China still survive in Taiwan, whereas China has actively eliminated them from the mainland.
4. Taiwan was amongst the best countries to handle the 2019 pandemic and wanted to share their model to the world but China blocked these approaches through WHO.
5. Taiwan manufactures the most semiconductors and high end computer chips in the world and China provides the most raw materials used in these chips, so in a way they're codependent on one another, however the first thing Taiwan will do if China ever invades is to blow up these fabs that makes the chips.
6.Taiwan has unhindered access to the Pacific Ocean while China is surrounded by many countries before their ocean's access.
7. Taiwanese (ROC) were the ones who fought Imperial Japan during WW2, and once weakened after the war they were actually made to flee by their opportunistic rivals. People who condemn this underhanded coup refer to China as *EAST TAIWAN*
If you didn't know some or all of these facts then which amongst them was the most interesting?
The most unexpectable was the 4th, the other ones were known for me; and also it should be added that Taiwanese Chinese consist of two groups of settlers by time: the first are descendants of Chinese lived in Taiwan by 1949 and the second are descendants of political refugees from the CCP's regime; ethnically Taiwanese Chinese belong to South Chinese groups and speak not only Mandarin but also South Chinese languages/dialects (mainly Hakka and Hokkien); during the Japanese period some Taiwanese Chinese from the earlier group of settlers served in Japanese military troops and civic administrations, so after joining KMT China with Taiwan they were persecuted by Chiang Kai-shek's goverment; after the liberalization in Taiwan Chiang Kai-shek was denied as a national hero and Kuomintang stopped to be the one significant political party.
Almost all of these "facts" are misinformation lol
@@ploykickshaw9842 lol 50 cent army appeared on a 20 old comment
@@dr.python Dude you don't even know how to open wikipedia and do a fact check yet you call me 50 cent army? that's funny haha
@@ploykickshaw9842 lol nothing there is false unless proven otherwise, you sound just like a flat-earther, spread you propaganda elsewhere or else your fake-fact comments will be deleted just like how it was here.
super lol
Honor and Respect 🪶
Greetings from Avondale Florida
You are forgetting spies, saboteurs, militia groups, double agents, special forces, stealth technology, nukes, size of the border that must be defended, paranoia, plus many other things that I can easily point out
I bought 5 pairs of sheath undies over the last year. They're great. They'll only last about 18 months if you wear an individual pair about once a week, machine washing and drying them between each use
I wore mine for a fort night straight.
They could use the World in Conflict method, using disguised civilian cargos and declared 'garissoning' island.
I’ve been looking forward to “The Million Man Swim” for a decade now 😂
Make it 3 decades.
Oh well. In Europe was the happening, 99 red balloons released up in the sky, when berlin wall was standing tall. I might be wrong, but this balloon was quite different? Opinions?
If this happens, then we're f*cked up aswell
- A guy from the Philippines
Yeah, China is already conducting guerilla style political and economic warfare against the Philippines. Should China decide to make a move against Taiwan, they need to make sure that the Philippines would not try anything to get in the way.
Now, both the Philippines and the US know this, and that is why the Philippines has agreed to let the US navy to double their naval presence in northern Phil, as well as conducting joint military exercises.
And that's before we even talk about the Chinese artificial islands in the South China sea.
Needless to say, the Chinese aggression against Taiwan isn't a Taiwan-only problem. Everybody major country in the southeast will be affected, from South Korea, Japan, all the way down to Philippines and even Australia, and even Vietnam!
@@Pouncer_Fox that's what i've been worried about like, definitely we gonna choose either china or the us. Personally, I'd say the Americans. But sure is china so near to us, we wouldn't guarantee a full backed up counter measures from the US Pacific fleet. But our ties with Taiwan cannot be ignored we would aid probably like refugees or economical stuff but a conflict with our country against the chinese is a one sided conclusion.
@@jude6963 The problem with the Chinese is that, like you said, if Taiwan falls, the Philippines is next. It's like making a deal with a scorpion and hoping it won't sting you as well. It will.
Best thing to do is to all work together and try to make sure nobody gets stung in the first place. China is too big for anyone in the southeast to take on alone, but together is different story.
@@Pouncer_Fox america's presence mostly works all the time to deteriorate any further escalations just like in the past, but time's different now. China's in full swing and can potentially go toe to toe with the big bois. Further escalating the potentials of an invasion and the rest of Asia might suffer from this, if by any means a miracle neighboring countries like Japan, SK, vietnam, Indonesia and us here in the Philippines to not get involved then we would still feel that big impact economically speaking. Sanctions just like with Russia can cripple the Global trade and inflations might rise if this invasion is to occur.
philiiipines is already fucked up anyway
I forsee a whole bunch of social credit points being accumulated here in the comments section...
I expect mine to be in the negatives hahaha.
I absolutely love the unbiased telling of all sides of every story by Simon and his research team! Thank you for the giving it to you straight approach to every topic you cover. Well done and keep it coming!
unbiased is not really a thing. You seeing it that way just means his view is more aligned with your own bias
i've been watching simon's show for many years and no he and his team are NOT unbiased lol
Very informative. You disregard several important facts with regards to the Russian situation.
To think he said at least a million men would be needed for a d-day type assault. Bloody nuts. To quote Gladiator, strength and honor Taiwan 🇹🇼
Sadly, that's only for pure occupation. If Xi decided to take the attrition route like Putin, where eradication of the civilian populace is not only acceptable, but is deliberately sought after, then well, he would not need quite as many.
anyone who will say china will do normandy style invasion is (the exact opposite of) genius. technology are changing everything, including war.
Before watching, the simple answer is no, and much effort is made to keep it from becoming inevitable,
Good video, but why are the title sequence and end credits SO LOUD compared to the content? Please help my ears not be so sad.
Did you say Chiang Kai-shek's name that way on purpose?
IIRC Chinese names have the surname first, then the first name, so I'm guessing it was related to that. I've never heard it pronounced that way, though.
12:40 also your toaster, your non smartwatch and the remote for the tv.
If China were smart, they'd realize Taiwan wouldn't be worth the trouble. Besides, if their military were entirely focused there, other nations could take advantage of that distraction.
India could occupy and liberate Tibet and Tibet can declare their independence from China. South Korea can finally take out North Korea, reuniting the peninsula under the South's form of government.
The CCP's arrogance will be their downfall.
Don't forget the Phillipines getting the opportunity to take the Spratlys and all those man-made islands in the South China Sea. With the Red Fleet sunk at the bottom of the Taiwan Strait, they wouldn't be able to stop them.
But that leads me to a different point. All this posturing towards Taiwan might be a ruse. Their real target might be somewhere else, like Outer Manchuria, if not all of Eastern Siberia. At the end of the day, that land will be a lot more useful to mainland China than little Taiwan. Time will tell.
hahha the war experts are here
Yeah like South Korea can easly take North Korea India is a joke it still has Pakistan to deal with and that's within their own subcontinent
India can’t just walk into Tibet. It’s a massive mountain range, and troops stationed in the region don’t even have guns.
No one going to invade China
China can invade their neighbors
Russia thinks it’s worth the trouble to invald ukraine
Are you able to talk about why Taiwan's political party (DPP) that was lead by Tsai Ing-Wen was out voted in favor of a less China-Taiwan tension causing party. Tsai Ing-Wen immediately resigned.
I am not Simon, but what I can tell you is that China heavily funds a lot of pro-china political parties in Taiwan. They are constantly trying to sway Taiwan's popular opinions towards re-unification via the carrot and the stick. In short, China economically reward anyone who wants to re-unify, and economically punishes anyone who doesn't. China's economy is vast enough that such leverage is possible.
Unfortunately, in the latest Taiwanese mid-term elections, the majority of the voting districts have been won by pro-china parties, and as a result, president Wen had to resign as the majority speaker of the parliament. However, she is currently still Taiwan's president until the next coming election cycle.
However, the fact that the majority of districts have turned pro-china does not bode well for her chances in the near future. I for one hope that Taiwan will not waiver against Chinese aggression and meddling. However, considering that Taiwan is the small fish in this big pond, such a sentiment is admittedly a big ask.
@@Pouncer_Fox You can look up Johnny Harris, a famous journalist; he shows a timeline and mapping of a plethora of US funded and initiated coup's and separatist movements / protests with actual weapons, economic funding and military engagement. They have even placed communists back as leader as long as they followed US demands. If you look at the recent timeline of the last 5 years, they have majorly increased the information war and essentially armed / funded everyone in the region against China. Major news spreading about Hong Kong protests, inciting rebellion in the western region of China, and funding protests or individuals that go against China. I think the reality is that the people of Taiwan have spoken and they are looking for better relations with China, which I believe is a good thing.
Scottish independence more likely than Taiwanese.
Winnie the Pooh starts WWIII. A picture book by A. A. Milne.
🤣
A few corrections:
China doesn't have the "One China Policy"; that belongs to the United States, which states that the U.S. doesn't take a stance but that the conflict should be resolved peacefully, with respect to people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait. Essentially, the PRC can't unilaterally determine Taiwan's future. The PRC has the "One China Principle," which states that Taiwan is an inseparable part of China; the United States merely acknowledges that the PRC has the "One China Principle." This doesn't mean they support it or adhere to it.
Additionally, the term 'reunification' is incorrect, as the two entities have never been united unless we go back to the 1800s with the Qing Dynasty. Moreover, the CCP has never ruled Taiwan. Unification would be more appropriate, as the PRC looks to annex Taiwan. 'Mainland' in a post-modern context is also problematic because it implies that the two sides are one entity. While there may be strong economic connections, which can be said about any country and the PRC at this point, Taiwan has its own military, currency, passports, political system, elected officials, and most importantly, the PRC has no jurisdiction or control over any of them. To clarify the point about 'independence,' Taiwanese aren't seeking independence from the PRC. Taiwan already has de facto independence and hasn't been ruled by the PRC in any way. Many Taiwanese would simply like to rid their country of the ROC moniker and the constitution that was forced upon them.
Understanding modern-day Taiwan requires nuance, given the complexity of Taiwanese history and the PRC's efforts to coerce the world into adopting its perspective and obfuscate the situation.
I just hope they stop eating dogs and making ducks taste like oranges.
We also may want to mention, that the PRC imports most of its food and energy. If the oil and food supplies are interrupted, the PRC does not have sufficient naval power to do anything about it.
Despite having a large number of ships, most of them are small and would not stand a chance asserting any power outside the China sea.
I do not think the US will directly involve themselves into a conflict, but it will provide Taiwan with any weapon they need. Most certainly the US will establish a naval blockade of the PRC.
The rest of the world would stop trading with China, very much to their own harm, but this move will send the PRC back to the stone age. At the moment at least the PRC is not sufficiently advanced to prosper without western technology.
Furthermore, time is not on the side of the PRC. Their population is aging faster than any other population on earth.
The only possible approach would be a negotiated take-over of Taiwan. After all the PRC is Taiwan's largest trading partner.
You sound like Zeihan
typical arrogant western technology 😂😂😂
@@Rjsjrjsjrjsj
I actually worked in China in the early 90. I lived in Singapore for years and my ex wife was half Chinese. This qualifies me to have an opinion on Chinese culture as well as the "way of doing things". It is very different from the west. And you are correct, Peter Zeihan has one of the most realistic World-view of any economic consultants far and wide.
@@kurtbecker3827 All I wrote was you sound like Zeihan but, please, tell me more.
🙄
They don't have the sealift capability at the moment to do it effectively but give them a couple of years and they will. News of Japan's increased military spending might force things through quicker though.
One needs to remember the extraordinary cat and mouse game played with Germany as to where the allied invasion would take place. If the Germans knew where in France the Allies would land they would have concentrated defenses and likely a different outcome. In this case, everyone would both see it coming and know where it was going.
Daily remainder Taiwan is an independent democratic nation
Time for a trip into the Whistlerverse. Cheers
Not as good as your Ukraine analyses have been, but appreciated nonetheless. I learned a couple things.
My feeling is that the risks and costs of a Taiwan invasion outweigh the benefits so dramatically as to render an invasion virtually inconceivable. Of course, as the Princess Bride teaches us, the inconceivable can happen. If China is going to do it, they have to do it SOON. The US is entering about a 10-year period when it's going to be at a bit of a low-ebb in terms of military power. Alot of it's military systems are aging and refresh programs are underway, but not expected to bear fruit for about a decade. There are ship retirement and building efforts that have lags between them producing a slightly diminished naval capability. And of course, everything happening in Ukraine has drained some of the West's stockpiles.
But China has so many problems FAR more important than Taiwan. It's demographic crisis. Housing crisis. Financial sector crisis. The pain of ending Zero-COVID. Global trends are for companies to do on-shoring, pulling operations out of China in favor of returning to western counties. China continues to struggle with high levels of corruption (albeit not at Russian levels...probably. Hard to know since China lies about all of it's data).
And Taiwan would be SO MUCH HARDER to take than Ukraine. Ukraine and Russia share HUGE land borders. The terrain is flat and easy to navigate. Taiwan is mountainous. The weather and seas make an amphibious landing only viable at a couple times a year. The cliffs in many places mean there's only so many viable landing spots. That's in addition to the stuff mentioned in the video.
Given the west's sprawling sanctions and aid to Ukraine, a country that isn't even all that important to the west, the notion that it wouldn't do FAR MORE to defend Taiwan would be hopelessly optimistic thinking. The CCP's hold on power (and Xi's in particular) is based on the illusion of competence. The deal they've made with Chinese citizens is that they're the technocrats that pulled much of the country out of the abject poverty of the Mao era and before. Do you want liberty or rice on the table? But the fallout from an invasion of Taiwan would undermine this illusion of competence.
The one argument I can see is that Xi and the CCP have already wrecked the illusion of competence, and in a desperate attempt to salvage their rule, they look to nationalist pride. Nothing brings a country together like a good war. I think Xi is rational enough to see how risky a strategy that is. He needs to saber-rattle because it's part of his nationalist brand, but one would have to be really dumb to launch this invasion.
I know alot was made out of the recent wargame that concluded the US would pay a heavy price defending Taiwan from China....but the US still WON every scenario. The price paid by China was HIGHER. And that's BEFORE sanctions and the disconnection from the global economy that would follow. Invading Taiwan would be an even dumber idea for China than invading Ukraine was for Russia.
Just an opinion.
To be fair though, at this point in time, the invasion of Taiwan is purely hypothetical, and therefore, details remain scant and speculative at best.
Regardless, I am grateful for Simon to bring this subject to light. The plight and the survival of literal millions of innocent men, women, and children on Taiwan are hanging in the balance over this very question. The Ukranians have suffered enough, and now another tyrant wants to add the Taiwanese to the suffering as well.
There is one key difference that wasn't brought up and it is that, due to the various southeast nations being packed so tight together, it is possible that it would likely encroach on other nations' sovereignty as well, especially Japan and possibly the Philippines. In other words, this could easily escalate to actual WW3, and the scary part is, China is very well aware of this and is planning to fight all fronts if necessary. And that is a good part of the reason why they are trying to build their military up as big as it is. This, unlike Ukraine, which has enough land for Russian anyway to try to contain the fighting.
As insane as it is for China to risk WW3, tyrants not known to be rational decision makers. That is why Taiwan, and all neighboring countries, need to and are taking the Chinese threat seriously. If Xi calls for actual war, it is most likely going to be WW3.
looks like you have good logic, but bad data. but, I understand the sentiment because your media pushing their point of view since you are born. so, this kind of opinion is very much expected.
@@Pouncer_Fox actually, china & taiwan relation is fine. until US create the tension between the two. because taiwan is the last part (after Xinjiang and Hongkong, mentioned in 1995 CIA declassified file) that can be used to disturb china.
@@breadnewbie6326 If China and Taiwan relation is fine, then why does China publicly come out and threaten military invasion?
The more you talk, the more I am convinced that you are a Chinese troll.
@@Pouncer_Fox before, the unification are discussed many times peacefully. until US and others violate the 1 china policy, and so on. now, the current taiwan government changed because taiwan people don't want to keep the tension between taiwan and china increased. you can see that the taiwanese people want more peaceful relationship with china like before.
Literally perfect timing for this release. I was looking for an updated video on this conflict
I have family there. I hope no invasion happens.
I love here. So do I.
I completely understand the sentiment, but please keep in mind that Ukranians also have families. Tyrants will do tyrant things, because it's only the death and suffering of literal millions of others, but not themselves directly. So, why should they care, if it means getting what they want?
I know I keep saying this, but let us all hope for the best, but be prepared for the worst.
I got caught offguard by the ad..lol
Interesting video. You didn’t really mention the part of history how Hong Kong was originally a part of China and how the UK literally took the territory from China by force but I guess that’s not really important.
as the usual, their media will expose certain things and hide other things to push certain point of view.
Sure, I'm not a fan of British colonialism, but they did return Hong Kong peacefully. On top of that, they handed over what China considered a crown jewel at the time, where HK alone was generating 10% of China's entire GDP. Again, not saying I agree with colonialism, because I don't, but it's not like UK treated HK all that badly at all, compared to what China has done to it now.
For Taiwan to be a rebellious province, it would had to have been part of the country it was supposedly rebelling against in the first place! PRC hasnever had control or sovereignty over Taiwan. It is like USA trying to argue England is a rebellious province because many years ago they used be be part of the same country, but the Brits won't let Americans walk in and take over their government offices! This claim should hardly even been mentioned as if it could even possibly be true; even CCP supporters know it is a farce and a lie to justify invasion and subjugation of free Taiwan people.
plz learn history
When you said, "... [China] commands one of the most powerful armed forces on the Planet." I couldn't help laughing since the CCP is filled with the most Powerful and Corrupt men in China. The Russian army was thought to be the most powerful army, and we wouldn't have realized how unprepared they were for war if Ukraine hadn't fought back. With western equipment, the outnumbered Ukrainian armed forced have the ENTIRE Russian army at a stalemate.
The CCP has one of the most powerful armed forces on paper... in reality, well, time will tell.
What's going on in Ukraine is not a stalemate. Take a look at what's actually going on.
We fought you Americans once. In Korea. You ran away.
@@Amoore-vv9wx I was born in 1970, and the Korean war started in 1950... so, when you stated "You ran away." Exactly who ran away?
@@Amoore-vv9wx I mean we could have nuked the whole place. We remained clean which is why you won.
MacArthur didn’t laugh when a million Chinese crossed the border
ww3. the long awaited sequel to complete the trilogy!
The way the West bows down to China (just look at what happens to an actor or athlete that criticises them), I fear for Taiwan
Are you doing what an individual does and what a government does are very different we also need Taiwan cause no one else makes chips and super conductors as well as them
Biden just let a Chinese spy balloon fly across the us
When CZcams interrupts your sponsorship spiel with ads, have we hit peak monetisation?
Taiwan is like if the confederacy had escaped to Cuba or something and set up their own govt.
There's no way the US would allow that for as long as China has laid off Taiwan.
They are not remotely comparable. Like at all.
They've been too busy butchering their own people the last 70 years, but they'll get around to it eventually, looks like
no, it's like if the Confederacy (CCP) had won and the US (KMT) fled.
Huh, never thought of it that way.
very wrong analogy because cuba is/was not part of US. if taiwan was not part of china, there's no way the "taiwan government" let KMT come and rule the island.
China acting like 1930s Germany in their speeches is such a weird move.
all of thes new age Führers act & do the same textbook dicktator thing... just in different flavors -.-
Taiwan is a country. Deal with it
Can you do a history video of the South African border war 1966 to 1990 ?
1:05 - Chapter 1 - A brief history
4:40 - Mid roll ads
6:05 - Chapter 2 - A 2nd civil war
8:25 - Chapter 3 - Full scale invasion
14:50 - Chapter 4 - Testing the waters
16:30 - Chapter 5 - A subtle takeover
- Chapter 6 -
The word cleanse is like a curse word for me. Everybody hates war, but there's no way we let Taiwan go down like that.
Thanks to Beijing Biden, it is. Let's go Brandon.
Miss Orange Hitler much?
American education is poor
How would a Chinese invasion of Taiwan be the fault of Biden and his administration? Explain it in detail, please, for the ones who don't pay too much attention to politics.
@@justinweber4977 Some people are just extremely ignorant, and I do apologize on behalf of us fellow Americans. The simple fact is, Biden came out and said "yes" to defending Taiwan, and Nancy Pelosi's high profile visit to Taiwan speaks far more volume and truth than any Republicans I have seen so far.
Now, I'm not against Republicans here. I'm just saying the Democrats have already publicly voiced their support to Taiwan, and I am sure the Taiwanese very much appreciated this gesture. So, to speak ill of the Democrats in this case just literally makes no sense, but that's how brain-washed some people are.
@@stc3145 You got us there.
How long ago was this filmed? Zero COVID policy was scrapped three months ago.
just remember this guy thinks russia blew up their own pipeline 🤡🤡🤡
They probably did since they arent punishing or attacking the other country they claimed did it.
@@stc3145 they are too weak to attack anyone besides Ukraine right now lol
@@ryanvalicek7291exactly
Just thought about needing a new pair of underware. I guess i know what is there for me to do? Thank you, Simon.
Conducting an amphibious operation is very complicated and needs every I dotted and T crossed. It wasn't until the allied invasion of southern France that the allies had it down. North Africa, Sicily, Italy and the Normandy landings had some flaws that by only a few strokes of luck they stuck. Aircraft, warships cannot take an island. That takes troops and transport craft are the most vulnerable of military equipment.
But that is already a non issue thanks in large part to Pelosi’s visit.
@skydragon23101979 no one can be sure what's in a dictators mind. They can be self destructive as no one close ever says you shouldn't do that. Unless they like prison or death.
@@billmoretz8718 Erm… I do’t know what you are getting at. My reply was simply to your point that amphibious operation is very complicated but that complication has been erased by Pelosi’s visit and it would be made simpler if Speaker Kevin visit’s Taiwan.
@skydragon23101979 dictators can act erratic and a visit by anyone won't change that. The best way not to be caught off guard is to expect anything and plan for it. Often the difference between success and failure is in the planning.
@@billmoretz8718 Got nothing to engage with you since you refuse to acknowledge even the point I am making and steer the conversation away from the topic at hand.
Imagine if instead of starting ww2 by attacking Poland, Germany had waited until Japan had started fighting the united states and italy was already losing in north africa, then kicked things off by trying to invade Wales. That's pretty much what it'd look like