Porcupine: Taiwan’s Strategic Approach to Survival
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- čas přidán 6. 06. 2024
- Discover the high-stakes battle for Taiwan's survival as we delve into the 'porcupine strategy' that keeps the island nation standing against China. Will deterrence be enough? Find out now!
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I am a Taiwanese army reserve rifleman , since the day Russian invaded Ukraine, I have started training myself.
Preparing myself makes me feel less anxious, and knowing that if something happened, I will be capable of serving my people and my country.
Stay strong
I am Ukrainian and I fully sympathize with the people of Taiwan and sincerely wish them peace, but let me wish them only to be brave and unyielding in defending their freedom if necessary! Glory to Ukraine and Glory to Taiwan!
@@ZeroResurrected Thank you!
加油
@@cs0312000 Thank you!
Taiwan is a country
@@scroatymcboogerballs8554 not so like that
Both are nations in their own right, the differences between the two are enough to support that argument.
@@armandoventura9043 The PROC is a fake proxy, The ROC is the only legitimate China
Negative social credit score for you!
@@armandoventura9043no they aren't. Roc has been legit government since 1913. The mainland is just in a state of communist rebellion
Social credit score, -100.😅
I live in Taiwan, if they activate a “foreign legion” I’d join. This is my home away from home and I would 100% fight for my home.
Who is "they"? You can suggest and initiate one. The Taiwanese government has certainly not thought about it.
Very brave for someone who can always leave unlike the locals who would be forced to stay. If I was on the island and a local I'd try to prevent taiwan from becoming Ukraine in the first place. A puppet used for a proxy war that even now doesn't get actual respect or recognition.
@azuremain it's very obvious who he is talking about when he says "they". See where he says Taiwan, then where the comma is, and then where he says they.
@@dillonhillierWorld knows when america desperately cries for democracy and freedoom of that country or region what will happen to that region take for example afaganostan,iraq,Libiay😂😂😂Even usa has never said taiwan is a country but the amount pf poeple supporting it really is a shock😂😂Bro they are like in civil war that never ended ..Sayinh china is gonna invade taiwan is like asuimg usa will overthrow and overkill hawaians kings and their ruler to setup their Own form of government wheather people want it or not..believe me these Internet CIA paid Trolls and those liking and hypong your Taiwan agenda won't showup when china starts Systematically Detorn that place be careful what you whish for taiwan isn't Ukraine lastly
Im moving there in September but to be honest Im not as brave (plus its not my country) Id be on the first raft of evacuations out. I did live in China for 6 years previously and when I was there it was constant talk of invading Taiwan.
I grew up in Taiwan as a little kid for a few years.
Navy brat and all.
It was ruthless in the early 70s when I was a kid living there.
I got to go back in the late 90s as an adult.
It was a completely different world.
Couldn't find where I had lived previously though.
Absolutely beautiful country.
Absolutely beautiful people.
I was also there in the late 90's (including during the 9/21 earthquake). It is a gem of a place with friendly people and great service. I sincerely hope that it stays the beautiful, prosperous place that it has become. War would be bad for everyone.
Yea they were a military junta for decades but in the last couple of decades they have become a real democracy.
In fact the reason the constitution declared themselves to be the real china was because the leaders were not good people. They were corrupt military in charge, though this has ended a long time ago.
Care to expound on "ruthless"?
@@JDMunoz-ct9xn I saw a man get his hand cut off for stealing something.
It was just a really
@@JDMunoz-ct9xn Lets just say Taiwan was not a democracy back during the cold war.
If you are curious, google "white terror(taiwan)" or the "228 incident"
An interesting note: although the media in English-speaking countries referred to Taiwan's defence strategy as the "porcupine," the actual Chinese term used is that for "hedgehog."
Japan won’t stand by idly while Taiwan falls. Their government has even said so, because the fall of Taiwan would mean the sea lanes into Japan could easily be strangled and Japan would essentially collapse.
The closest island of Japan is only 50 miles away from Taiwan. There is no way without dragging Japan into the war.
They are all so brave, Ukraine also got all the guarantees after Budapest memorandum
@@andrerothweiler9191 Try bombing the American base in Okinawa and see what the Japanese will do.
@@andrerothweiler9191taiwan is not ukraine
Japan is collapsing due to only 11.55 percent of its population is under age 14.
It should be added that there is a global national security interest in helping Taiwan if war breaks out. The fact that Taiwan is the global hub of chip production is a key strategic value. The global economy couldn't function if Taiwan's TSMC was taken over or bombed in a war.
He brought that up in an older video about the consequences of if Taiwan got invaded.
That's why they we're building more semiconductor plants in the US. Besides, China will be petty and destroy Taiwan's plants if it looks like their invasion will fail. We'll be out either way, and the whole world will suffer. Or we'll make ourselves independent of Taiwan, and we won't have such motivation to intervene, which would suck badly for Taiwan.
@@JDMunoz-ct9xn If China is petty enough to do that, it's time to be petty in return and blockade all trade with China. Including food, that they do not grow enough of. Note that I'm saying *blockade*, not *sanctions*, sanctions are going to happen no matter what.
It’s so sad cause China is already some what of a broken nation. So then destroying the plants that make the chips in Taiwan wouldn’t even big as big of a blow to them as the rest of the world. The Chinese People and Government include suffering in their game plans it seems…
@@JDMunoz-ct9xnThere's more then just chips at stake. There's sea lanes and the follow on advances that would be inevitable. Even if the US could get the chip manufacturing up to par it's likely to be involved in the conflict anyway. It would just make a losing effort more palatable.
Taiwan is a Country support from The Philippines 🇵🇭🤝🇹🇼
Philippine is part of Spain 😂
@@6565hopepySpain is a part of Morocco. Also of Rome. And of France
@@yunuss58 France is part of US, US part of Norway 😜
@@6565hopepy norway is part of Moosetopia
California is a part of Mexico
If I were a lazy high school teacher, I'd just play Simon's various channels on rotation. The kids probably would get a better education than from the text books they are assigned to.
Porcupine strategy is what helped Finland to survive cold war as well.
nope, Finland fought unequal wars smartly intelligently with guerilla tactics . They survived the cold war because they are well experienced in fighting and defeating superior powers, and understand fully well the tremendous cost of war to stay neutral instead of western puppet , war mongers and provocative like Ukraine.
99% of US DOD run wargames always have some unrealistic advantages to the opposing force. Reason for this is as one opfor roleplayer at JRTC once said "I hope to give the commanders their worst day here in make believe so they don't have their worst day down range in real life"
It’s also to convince Congress to give the DOD more funding to ‘better the odds’.
If the US wins every time in simulated war games, there will be no need for more funding.
The U.S. trains harder then it fights.
Have you heard of millennium challenge 2002?
The more you sweat in peace, the less you bleed in war. That's why it's called an "exercise".
Edinburgh, the Scottish capital was captured any time England tried but Scotland was never conquered because mountains (small mountains).
Same with Persia, even if Ctesiphon or the entire Mesopotamia are conquered by Roman, they still exist. Well until Rashidun Caliphate exist at least....
Highland Clearances: Don't you, forget about me!
Don't, don't, don't, don't!
Ireland is very good example.....it took a while...but they won't be back
@@claudiaxanderthat wasn't a foreign power but you be you. It was largely Scottish land owners.
@@claudiaxanderthat wasn't a foreign power but you be you. It was largely Scottish land owners.
I was born in Taiwan, but grew up in the US. Taiwan is a country in my eyes. The US needs to do more to help defend Taiwan's democracy. The free world must stand together, and never yield to dictators and authoritarian regimes like China.
The PRC is the greatest threat to freedom all over the world. We in the free world must never forget that!!!
We are cuckolded by China
Xi Jinping wishes to know your location for mandatory brainwashing!
I got to visit Taiwan in 2018 and have been a strong supporter ever since. They are a freedom loving people who have fought to where they are now and will fight to keep their way of life. Taipei is very familiar, in a way - people drive the same cars, wear the same clothes, and - in large part - buy the same products we do. I felt like I was visiting San Antonio, Texas, except everyone was asian.
Except the big Ole women ofc
I’m glad that Taiwan has the support of the US and other countries. Taiwan is a free democracy which preserves traditional Chinese culture and religion, which was wiped out by Mao in China. In terms of per capita wealth and personal freedoms, Taiwan is leagues ahead of China. The vast majority of Taiwanese people don’t want to come under the control of China. Despite the fact that Taiwan has never been under the control of the Communist Party of China, the CCP has said for many decades that they will take Taiwan. Perhaps some day the CCP will try, but looking at the rampant corruption and lack of innovation in the Chinese military, I think it’s little more than a paper tiger. The free world must continue to support Taiwan.
Like we did in Chile? Nicaragua? Batista in Cuba? Fuck the free world all tryrants
It's easy to look at the CCP performing maneuvers on land, or the sheer number of troops at their disposal, and be awestruck. However, despite decades of saber rattling and legitimate technical advances, they've done little to convince anyone they're gaining significant competence in the two key aspects that would allow them to invade- sustained precision bombing, and land/sea coastal invasion. If they can't take over the airspace and destroy enough shore defense to land troops and materiel, they'll never achieve the thing they want from a Taiwan invasion. More than just wiping out the government and dominating the populace, if they invade they will want the high end semiconductor manufacturing infrastructure that makes Taiwan so valuable. If they can't invade quickly and thoroughly, they won't be able to capture those advanced facilities and personnel without damage or the Taiwanese themselves initiation self-destruct measures.
lol you literally dont know wtf you are talking about.
Please don’t say Taiwan is traditional China. That is objectively wrong for so many reasons.
@@chrisblake4198china wants Taiwan for ideological reasons and not economic. Why do you think they fucked HK?
No it’s because they would get to declare to the world it’s now the Chinese’s century.
I would really like to see a warographics episode focusing on the Forest Brothers of post WWII Baltic countries and or an episode focusing on the national guard and grass roots style civil guard units that have sprung up in the Baltics and Poland since 2014. It is really neat seeing the volunteer formations that are willing to buy time for the military to react in the instance of an invasion.
Another Warographics. Another chance for me to sell you guys on why Warographics should cover the Geneva Conventions.
Ahh you mean the dictator check list
The Geneva Suggestions?
Surprised they haven't.
I would love to see a Warographics on that!
@@mr.smithsgovermentclass4556 I just woke my kid up laughing at that. Thanks. 😆
Taiwan is a free and independent country
And West Taiwan is not
UN doesn't recognize that
@@calvinblue894 good thing everybody listens to and respects the UN right??
@@ridgecrestwack9746 AND??? You don't respect..then what??
Yo ..you are the ANT..Power is REAL..
They are the authority..you are not..
Face it!
And if UN is not the authority..China is the Power..and US have limited means to override that..
Welcome to LIFE!
The Taiwanese are Not 100 percent Chinese but a fusion of Polyasians, Japanese,and Chinese people so they are unique and should be left alone.
The Tibetans and Uyghurs are not 100% Chinese, but that didn't stop the CCP.
I am Ukrainian and I fully sympathize with the people of Taiwan and sincerely wish them peace, but let me wish them only to be brave and unyielding in defending their freedom if necessary! Glory to Ukraine and Glory to Taiwan!
World knows when america desperately cries for democracy and freedoom of that country or region what will happen to that region take for example afaganostan,iraq,Libiay😂😂😂Even usa has never said taiwan is a country but the amount pf poeple supporting it really is a shock😂😂Bro they are like in civil war that never ended ..Sayinh china is gonna invade taiwan is like asuimg usa will overthrow and overkill hawaians kings and their ruler to setup their Own form of government wheather people want it or not..believe me these Internet CIA paid Trolls and those liking and hypong your Taiwan agenda won't showup when china starts Systematically Detorn that place be careful what you whish for taiwan isn't Ukraine lastly
slava ukraini!!
THANK YOU!!!!!
This is exactly what I needed to know the differences between The Ukraine War and a Taiwan invasion.
Very important to distinguish the bases in the Philippines as factually Filipino bases which the U.S. has recently regained significant access to. It's not the same as Japan and Korea where the U.S. has broader powers to use the bases as needed. We are visitors in the Philippines and any action from those bases would have far more political strings attached than in the case in Japan/ROK.
That is a much needed clarification, thanks.
The Americans have the Philippine President Marcos by the balls. Their family fled to Hawaii during the 1986 revolution. Guess where they placed all their hidden (some say "ill-gotten") wealth, and who controls this wealth. It will be a pity if they lose access to them.
That may be true, but keep in mind that China has been bullying ALL of its neighbors in Asia for decades, including the Philippines. If China invaded Taiwan, the Philippines might very well conclude they they would be next on China's wish list, and act accordingly.
Thought some might be interested in why the classified US military war games had a more negative conclusion.
As a rule, the US military uses war games to find where it needs to improve, so they tend to be intentionally stacked against the US/allied forces.
Well yea, unlike autocratic regimes who make it easier for their armies to win war games by adding handicaps to the otherwise or adding bonuses to their side. America and other western governments don’t like pretending their armies are stronger than they actually are. Especially when you have to project power on a global scale. Just saying, I’m surprised most people wouldn’t put this together.
A rapidly growing Chinese navy ( which outnumbers us with shis), the surprising problem of the US having shorter range missiles with smaller payloads. The fact that the US navy is scattered across the globe but the PLAN isnt. And lets add in the Taiwan is within range of Chinese ground based missiles and special artillery. A very unenviable situation to deal with
@@josephshreeves8192Japan would intervene too
@@josephshreeves8192want to touch on an important point…
A lot of those PLAN vessels are corvettes, which are wayyyy less useful in an actual engagement and are meant more for patrol and harassment of fishing vessels than actually engaging in combat.
If we were going for a useful comparison… the Chinese Navy is still way less experienced, way less funded and way less advanced.
They do have longer range A2A missiles, which is a big problem.
The US is currently undergoing upwards of 7-9 different Missile programs.
AIM-260, Peregrine among others… which have double the range of the newest Chinese A2A missiles and a similar payload capacity.
These are obvious years away still, which is why the US is currently going on a spree of opening up bases in the Philippines, as to be closer to Taiwan.
@@josephshreeves8192 Rapidly growing for sure. Useless corvettes mostly though. Luckily, the PLAN has absolutely no answer to the USN's nuclear submarines. At this point, the PLAN would just be a 'target rich environment'
I always take reported war game results with a huge grain of salt. Anything they release publicly is designed to shape public opinion, not to reflect reality. If someone wants to make US voters nervous in order to increase the political will to raise military spending, this is a great way to do that, regardless of whether the report is accurate.
Exactly man no matter how much planning you do there’s no telling what will happen until it happens.
Plus they intentionally act like the opponent does everything perfectly & has the upper hand from the beginning
Especially since Russia was number 2 in military and is struggling in Ukraine
In most cases I would agree but with the CCP issue the US is completely unprepared and in reality more political will is needed to fix the failures of the past 20 years. Military spending at the moment is at the lowest since the cold war ended. A common misconception in the public is that it is higher than ever.
@@nolongerblocked6210and that the US is in a weakened and disadvantaged state.
Feel like this wasn't quite explained correctly. It isn't that the PRC isn't willing to accept those high casualties. It's that they can't sustain the losses in amphibious equipment.
Even if you get a large number of troops ashore, if you lose too many of the amphibious ships needed to sustain and supply them. It would have done you no good. Those troops will be chewed up eventually as they run out of supplies.
Antiship and anti aircraft missiles are cheaper and faster to build than planes and ships , a stockpile of over a thousand antship missiles could erase Chinas naval capacity in a about a week
This amphibious assault strategy is kind of illogical. This misinformation is spread by US think tanks to placate the Taiwanese population.
The recent Chinese military exercises makes it clear that China will blockade Taiwan and will attack Taiwan defenses with missiles long before any landing. The PLA has even fired a few salvo of MLRS to demonstrate the ability to do saturated strike of the island's west coast. I doubt Taiwan would much air defence or operating radar after a couple of weeks of bombardment.
This is not the best scenerio for the PLA, this is certainty when the war starts.
When the amphibious attack starts, it is likely to be SF first to gain a beachhead follow by air or amphibious tanks.
When the war starts, it will be Taiwan that will run out of supplies. China manufactures it's own weapons, Taiwan does not. This same experts kept on predicting Russia running out of missiles for a year when Russia has missile manufacturing capacity.
They have 100,000 plus civilian boats for that😅. It will make the Dunkirk operation look like church
@@trustandbelieve9173 100 civilians can be sunk by even plain old regular atillery , good luck approaching a port with rockets raining down
@@eduwino151 you think Xi cares about civilian deaths, it will be like canon fodder
Some very good points made here and the team put together a good survey of the wargame results. Some have pointed out omissions like TSMC, but it is a highly complex subject and not all issues can be overviewed in 20 minutes or so. I appreciate the logical approach.
Fantastic analysis and information as usual. I love the work done for this channel. Hats off to the research and creative team!
I think it's important to keep in mind, that one of Chinas goals is to incorporate the taiwanese industry. So even the pessimistic scenario, with heavy urban fighting, could lead to less gains than Putin got at the moment from Ukraine.
Also dealing with a hostile population/workforce who would be unlikely to cooperate, or do so only grudgingly.
the instant china invades, those plants will be rendered inoperative.
Chip manufacturing requires thousands of processes with highly skilled professions and highly advanced technology.
With chinas wolf warrior policy more and more taiwanese will only be against china and even if china manages to take taiwan, the required highly skilled labor and technology of TSMC or Mediatek will simply not cooperate and migrate their taiwan headquarters and factories to their american offices and factories. Which America would gladly take.
@@winzyl9546 Plus whereas Russia has resources it can sell on the black market, China imports a lot of food and energy so sanctions would cripple them.
@@cb3648
It’s a dual edged sword. With a crippled china you have a crippled world since just about everything in our day to day life is made in china. It doesn’t seem like world powers will do much to jeopardize that
A nation that has a similar aproch to Defence is Greece
Or as a Greek politican said during the 1987 crisis ( in loose translation) " we holding the keys for the mad asylum gate
( if you try us) will pass that gate together, dragging you in with us" in other words even if you manage to defeat us,it will be such a pyrrhic victory and the aftermath so chaotic that you really gonna wonder if it worth it in the fist place
Nobody would attack Greece, unless they willing to face the wrath of Zeus.
With the way the world is shaking up, I truly hope that this strategy continues to work as a deterrent for the Taiwanese.
You should do one on the swedish cold war defense against the soviet union. How the idea to shelter 4-5 million people for 4 years underground whilst the world recovred from nuclear annhiliation as well as having the industry tucked away in mountains to be ready to churn out everything everyone needed including old trains and well everything. Not the defense itself which at its peak incorporated half the population and an aritllery piece for each kms of the gigantic border towards the sea. And thats just scratching the surface.
@05:44 “Before it went down” LOL
You timed that on purpose didn’t you? 😂
Amazing content. Thank you. Simon was also incredibly eloquent and engaging.
Thankyou as always for your informative videos and amazing voice :)
you should make a video on singapore's total defence concept
Yes this!
Worked for Constantinople for so long
_"To enforce, one must have force"_ - Robert Edwin House
I applaud Taiwan I hope they can continue and I hope that all they're planning will be enough to dissuade any hostile action from the Chinese mainland
Let's also look forward to Taiwan becoming an official country in the eyes of the international world sometime this century
Hopefully the next 20 years
Most of the interest in China right now comes from economics. If Xi can’t pull his head out of his self-righteous butt about domestic consumption, more countries might find Taiwan a better investment than Beijing.
Two things I keep in mind: 1.) We've seen how the Russian military has been hollowed out by corruption. That's surely happened in China as well and the leadership should know it. 2.) Churchill as Lord of the Admiralty in WWI was very frustrated that offensive action on the seas would be called off due to the loss of one ship with some hundreds of crew, while on the Western Front hundreds of soldiers were lost every day from attrition. The horror of losing large numbers of men to drowning would give anybody pause.
Great video, thanks!
Love your videos! Do agincourt next!🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉
Simon...I have to say. As your videos continue to get more detailed, you have grown with your many channels and amazing content. I continue to notice delivery, timing and sense of humor regarding such serious topics as amazing. Keep up the amazing work my good sir.
If only he would speal slower.
Well said. Even under the best scenarios for China you likely have a totally destroyed Taiwan. Does the PRC really think the ROC will allow them to take the chip-centers intact? How many decades will it take to rebuild within a region much harder to subjugate than Tibet or Xinjiang.
It would be petty of China to destroy their chip plants, because the whole world, including China would suffer, but I wouldn't put it past them. In any case, that's why the US is intentionally building more manufacturing capacity within our borders. In fact, they're building a massive plant only a short drive from my house.
@JDMunoz-ct9xn I have to wonder if China might not assume the loss of manufacturing facilities like TSMC and would actually just be weighing if the west can weather the loss as well as they can. Such a loss would surely hurt china and the west but maybe they believe it would be a worse loss for the west? Perhaps they will wait until their own manufacturing is deemed sufficient to weather such a loss before taking any action.
@@JDMunoz-ct9xn I wouldn't put that past Russia, but China is a different beast. If China can't procure chips from Taiwan or the west they will fall behind in every metric from manufacturing process management to export sales of products. And at the end of the day, unlike Russia, China is driven by profit.
US Army War College Press published a paper in November 2021 - The US has a contingency plan for relocating manufacturing (and talent) after raising the manufacturing facilities if China tries to take them.
We’ve also been investing in lesser known materials for manufacturing micro chips (e.g. ultra-pure water) to hedge our bets. Basically if China takes TSMC they will have similar control over chip manufacturing the likes of OPECs oil monopoly.
The best case scenario is a Democratic unified China. Taiwan doesn't want CCP, doesn't mean Taiwan doesn't want to be THE China.
Great episode!
I'd love to see an episode on the World War 2 battle of the Hurtgen Forrest. It was the longest single battle the U.S army ever fought(almost 5 months) and one of the bloodiest battles on the western front. Most people have never heard of this battle
Would you. Well your desires are important and you matter, so I'm sure they'll get right on that...
@@HumanityisEmbarrassing What's your problem troll? I've seen a lot of people suggest topics in the comments section. Why don't you go crawl back under your rock and stay there.
Another aspect of Taiwan's strategy is as a poison pill combined with a sort of Samson option. Taiwan has begun producing coventional cruise missiles capable of reaching beijing while also having modified an old but respectably large ww2 era submarine to be a mine layer. Basically, in the event of a Chinese invasion, all those missiles would probably be fired en masse at appropriate targets while the sub could lay mines outside chinese ports. China's economy would be devastated in such a situation, with damage done to its cities while simultanously making maritime shipping hazardous to the point that China would lose even more trade in addition to the trade lost from the international fallout.
Taiwan also has a battery of old American 203mm guns on small island positions close to the Chinese shore. These too would fire on Chinese coastal cities opposite Taiwan until destroyed.
@PapaBAMBI-yb9ehthat is what russia said about ukraine, not every country is the us doing the gulf war mate
Fujian province is 3 times the size of Taiwan. Sure Taiwan could launch some missiles at Beijing or Shanghai but China has hundred of cities that would be unscathed. The Chinese retaliation on Taiwan would reduce Taipei to rubble.
@@Bk6346 you miss the entire point of and how such an attack would be targeted as well.
@@Bk6346 don't think it'd come to this but taiwan could always lug a few cruise missiles at every single nuclear power plant in china and make things really nasty.
It would be interesting to see if Taiwan adopts some ideas from Ukraine like the cheap ballistic missiles. (While they could/ would be stopped easily 1,000's of them could be used to exhaust air defences on ships)
I think Ukraine call them the Toskoa.(not sure if they have been used yet)
To add another layer to the unpredictability of an invasion, typhoon season is May through October. Even in the best-for-China scenario, it would still take months to overtake the island. Random cyclones could seriously complicate amphibious landings in the meantime.
PRC military planners should have a large "no go" swathe in their calendars.
Their supply lines will go kaput.
There is an aspect that has not once been mentioned in this video: the state of the Chinese army. One of the many lessons learned from the Ukraine war was how horribly even the most capable military experts and intelligence services can over- or underestimate an army's capabilities, efficiency and power. Everyone and their mothers took it more or less as a fact that the Russian army is still a mighty one that is operated competently. How wrong everybod was... Turned out most of the analyses simply assumed that such a huge army with such a history must, by virute, be a formidable one. Now many analysts have been saying the Chinese army is nowhere near as poweful as the sheer numbers would suggest. But mostly, people still tend to think the Chinese army simply MUST be good and strong because... well, it's the Chinese army. In reality, there are a lot of signs this not being exactly true. Sure, it is, after all, indeed the Chinese army with immense manpower and weaponry, so should they decide to attack, there is no way they wouldn't cause a lot of devastation, no matter what the final outcome is. Just like the Russian army could, can and will be able to cause an awful lot of damage in Ukraine, regardless of the final outcome. But one thing's for sure: we haven't seen the Chinese army in real action for an eternity (thankfully). In spite of an ocean of military, political and aother kinds of intelligence and analysis, we basically have no idea how capable the Chinese army is - just like we had no clue about how capable the Russian army was. We assumed - we were dead wrong. And one interesting aspect: many argue that the biggest factor in the decline of the Russian army probably has been rampant corruption. Well, corruption is just as rampant in China. We don't know how much the army is affected... but corruption has long been a HUGE problem in China.
There is def something to be said about how Chinas military will actually perform. You can practice and drill all you want but real practical lessons and experience from war, see the United States from at least the Gulf War/Desert Storm on, and that can actually mean something vs pure theory
One of the most important and telling things about the PLA/PLAN/PLAAF is that they don’t *TRAIN* the same as the US.
Flight hours are less than half the US’s, most training is way less in depth than standard US training and the lack of combat experience in this century puts them at a huge disadvantage…
Chaos rules the battlefield in the best of cases… but if you are Ill prepared that chaos will rule your military too.
You are dense. Yeah, Russia is powerful, that's why they are inflicting 3 to 1 losses.
Also, the US has given MORE THAN THE ENTIRE MILITARY BUDGET OF RUSSIA TO UKRAINE.
So no, Russia isn't struggling against Ukraine, they're struggling against NATO.
@@tihruytssgjjvsavcxtbvhj3429 "So no, Russia isn't struggling against Ukraine, they're struggling against NATO."
Wrong. Russia has been struggling against *a fraction* of NATO's budget and surplus military hardware dated from 1980s-2000s. Had it been actual NATO armies Russia faced in a conventional combat, Russia would've been utterly crushed. Those SU-35s they were so proud of would've been falling out of skies as burning wrecks as they're being systematically hunted down by 5th generation fighters.
@@tihruytssgjjvsavcxtbvhj3429 Well... looking at the news of the pasr year or so... the Russian army is struggling against itself. They don't even need an enemy.
(friendly advce: if you start your comment with an insult, nobody will take you seriously.)
After every war game said that Ukraine would only survive for a few days, I'll take any prediction of Taiwan losing in 10 weeks if they were alone with a grain of salt.
Same with the other heavy loses predictions.
It is much more complicated if you factor in Chinese culture. Consider that vast majority of Chinese families have only 1 male child (1-child policy) to carry the family name and support the parents into old age, how willing do you think the typical Chinese would want to send their child into a war that doesn't benefit them, but rather likely end their family bloodline? And the CCP isn't quite as popular with the Chinese as it used to be.
Edit: I forgot to add that some high-ranking individuals of the prized Rocket Force of the Chinese military is secretly working with the Americans, since according to sources, they don't want to be pulverized by the Americans when war starts as they will be the initial main target.
Would love to see more details on how Taiwan is preparing to defend
I bet China would too
@@jpthomas75World knows when america desperately cries for democracy and freedoom of that country or region what will happen to that region take for example afaganostan,iraq,Libiay😂😂😂Even usa has never said taiwan is a country but the amount pf poeple supporting it really is a shock😂😂Bro they are like in civil war that never ended ..Sayinh china is gonna invade taiwan is like asuimg usa will overthrow and overkill hawaians kings and their ruler to setup their Own form of government wheather people want it or not..believe me these Internet CIA paid Trolls and those liking and hypong your Taiwan agenda won't showup when china starts Systematically Detorn that place be careful what you whish for taiwan isn't Ukraine lastly
1.擊沈他們的船
2.防守海岸
3.等美軍介入🤷
Please do a video on the battle of Westerplatte - one of the first battles of WW2 between Germany and Poland
At first this reminded me of the video Simon did 5 months ago about the US invading Iran: While they certainly could the price in blood would be too high to ever try. But then as he continued I realized no, this could potentially be so, so much worse.
US would use airforce navy and artillery and I'm sure the Marines would do good . Vietnam Afghanistan Iraq etc were forced into guerrilla warfare. US troops can lethally engage Iranians at 400 meters with their scopes and training. America has a clear technological advantage as well. But Iran looks more organized and prepared than Iraq and Afghanistan. US has 5th generation fighters not sure how Iran would beat all of them.
@@GutbomberVietnam wasn’t forced into guerrilla the us was. China said if the us and south Vietnam invaded the north China would intervene so the us and south couldn’t do anything other than repel attacks and fight guerrillas
@Gutbomber iran would not confront US Air force and US navy directly because they do not have the capability and they are not fools as they know they would be defeated quickly. Iran would fight the US in a non conventional and asymwtric manner. Iran would deploy its troops in mountains,underground and forests to reduce/limit ability of US air force and deploy ground based air defence systems. Iran would also strike US military bases in middle east with drones,missiles to reduce/limit ability of US air force. The US Air force would not be able to operate at its full potential.
@@pathat8869 Iranians happen to have some f15s.. good luck
@Gutbomber yeah but the US Air force cannot destroy a mountain even with the heaviest bombs. Nuclear weapons would need to be used to cause heavy damage to a mountain or underground facility.
Simon is so cold from office air conditioning, or basement cool air subsidence, he wears a cable knit sweater in the height of Summer. Lmao
Can someone store meat in there?
As long as Taiwan is not invaded, the orocuoine strategy is doing its work
Whoa. Just watched the previous video about Switzerland and their version of this. Where you left off saying how Taiwan is using their version. You offered a video about it if we were interested. I was literally thinking “man I hope he does that”. Here it is.
Simon, how much existential dread do you experience from the topics across your channels? For me it's quite a bit and yet I keep coming back 🫠
Department of defense plays war games a little differently where they try and make sure they are outgunned outnumbered and I'll played strategy that a lot of Nations do dating back even before the Napoleon wars. The strategy where you can find ways to win o even if you are outgunned and outclassed it's a good strategy keeps everybody humble
Had a bud who did those kind of analysis back in the day what would be the outcome, he said one word "bloodbath".
Ask him recently what he thought with modern weaponry, he said "bloodbath now with GPS, Drones and in 4k"
Lol succinct, I like it
People forget that this is war, not a game
I spent the majority of '90 in Taipei and was taken by the stats stated on the mandatory service periods, as well as the gender differantial. I was told it was 2 years for men and 1 year for women. They take it very seriously and did mauvers through the streets at night moving tanks from base to base. If it comes down to it they will fight like a third monkey on the ramp to Noah's Ark, of that I am certain.
“Third monkey” - that is a simian simile I’ve never heard before!
@@laulaja-7186 its one of my favorite quotes of all tiime" Don't fight if you can avoid it, but if you do, fight like your the third monkey boarding Noah Ark. And brother, its starting to rain".
What in all of the actual fucks?! 🤣😂..I've also never heard this quote before and thank you AND ^^^^^ Mr Jonnnyh ^^^^ above this with the extended version for making a bro privy to this hilaridomness
@@jonnyh6978 I can visualize that so well lol
Sure they will fight like Ukraine but the island might end up looking like Ukraine.
Whoah.
There is always the chaotic element that projections can't account for... but it seems a fair assessment.
The US can not abandon Taiwan.
While most definitely both an, 'easier said then done', and imperfect option, the porcupine strategy has been proven effective since prehistory, hence it's animal based name
It worked for Switzerland in WWII.
@@Kaiserboo1871 to be fair they do have a distinct geographic advantage, and it wasn't smooth sailing either
Excellent analysis. Thank you. 🙏🏻 Democracies must resist and defeat autocracies. The world order is at stake.
Looks at the EU 👀
Its a form of governance. GOVERNANCE. Its not a religion, you democracy brainwashed zealot. Its about what system can DELIVER.
The big restriction is the lack of Chinese troop lift and transport capabilities. Either paratroop or Marine lift capability is way short of that required.
I do love Simon forecasting a topic and it comes true.
You know it's not as terrible a scenario because Simon doesn't get out of his chair at the end.
Very good analysis but I think you forgotten evaluating one very big important factor I’m sure the Taiwanese are definitely going to bring into their defense.
The mountains.
Mountains are basically walls. It can work for or against you.
I went to high school with a Taiwanese kid named Eddy.... you don't wanna go to war with Taiwan if even 1 out of every 100 of the folks there are like Eddy. You could tell the Overall Defense Concept had been drilled into his very being because sadly, Eddy was the target of bullying. However, he very much took the "mess with me and it's gonna suck for you too" approach to defending himself. Needless to say the bullying attempts didn't last very long
Every time I think I have found all of simon’s channels I find anither
1:35 - Chapter 1 - Theory & praxis
5:50 - Chapter 2 - Stockpiles & capabilities
10:10 - Chapter 3 - Global support, global lessons
14:55 - Chapter 4 - War games
- Chapter 5 -
- Chapter 6 -
PS: I do wonder, knowing Russia "track record" against Ukraine...could it be possible China will struggle as well when it will eventually try to conquer Taiwan ?
China won’t conquer Taiwan through conventional means.
They will use the west to do it for them.
It will be far worse for China just due to geography alone
@@billfarlo3366 heavy casualties while crossing the strait, likely several western submarines attacking, not to mention the landing force having a bad time, also several western allied countries with air bases within 2 hours.
China has an economy dependent on Western customers.
They just invest 3 trilling us dollars in the Belt and Road project to ensure that.
You never know but facts make it tricky.
China would collapse if it attacked Taiwan. The sanctions and business being cut off will ruin their economy. If they cut it off, that is. Who knows what the world would really do....
Your knowledge and ability to communicate is fantastic! Thank you for making these videos.
You think Simon knows all this?
Thank the researchers
This strategy is pretty much what Finland did in the Winter and Continuation Wars. And it's the basis of the defence policy for the Nordics to this day.
Excellent slip at 5:44, very professional 😂
It should be noted that firearms training, safe handling, weapon maintenance and marksmanship is taught in schools in Taiwan to kids. Behind every blade of grass.
That was back in the 60's-70's. Now it's just part of the training for compulsory military service.
@@dejectedfrogcat2840 incorrect. Daily life.
又一個被誇大的說法，事實上只有在高二的時候會有一次在軍方的靶場進行射擊6發子彈的機會，再這之後又回到標準亞洲小孩的升學生活
Another blue sweater episode! The most knowledgeable outer ware in history.
Is this a re-upload? Could have sworn I watched this one the other week? 🤔
Off the bet, I would say that the continued success of Taiwan's strategy will depend on who the invader is. There are certainly leaders who are willing to shed the lives of millions to achieve their goals. If Taiwan ever has to face such a foreign ruler, it could be in serious trouble.
unless China develops the capacity to walk on water aint gonna happen , antship missiles are cheaper and faster to build than ampihibious ships , China would lose its entire navy even before getting halfway to Taiwan
The problem is that even if the PRC was willing to dump millions men into the meat grinder, they would have problems keeping enough ships intact that could keep supplies and reinforcements flowing.
The crazier the leader the more coup's he will have, not even Hitler was safe. Especially a direct war against America, it will only be a matter of time before losses are so heavy that either the leadership gives up or the leadership gets coup 'ed.
Amphibious assault is so fragile.. Imagine, 3k chinese soldier on board in every ship going to taiwan and will git hit with 1 anti-ship missile by Taiwan .. China must be ready to dump chinese soldiers on sea
@@mattwalker5689 or maybe instead of wasting hundreds of millions men , they could just genocide everybody on the islands by bombs and occupy it with a few hundreds millions . And judging by Chinese history , removing tens of millions to hundreds of millions to replace them with other hundreds of millions is not that uncommon practice. China do not play the game of occupying and subjugate others , they play the game of removing and replacing.
honestly I think the US’s policy to containment and their various military bases around taiwan and its surrounding islands is the main deterrence.
China wouldn’t risk a war with the US and it’s local allies (australia, japan, south korea) just for taiwan.
Taiwan is more a key piece in the puzzle of US containment rather than the primary military power
China’s pretense of focus on Taiwan is pure greed. In actuality they have border disputes with every one of their neighbours, and can only be calculating that a war focused on Taiwan will let them isolate and confront the Americans alone. If only the Americans can be knocked out of the picture, the rest will fall like dominoes including Russia and India. Little do they understand that America has always wanted a strong China, only one with the sanity to function as a leader rather than a bully. This was the thinking behind America’s many decades of reaching out to build trust and economic development in China. But now all the years of one-sided Most Favoured Nation trading status are merely thrown back in America’s face.
Starting a video with "the republic of china" is a spicy move in 2023
@5:43 dude hops out the apc with a pistol 🤣🤣🤣🤣wtf did i just watch
Just curious what kind of soldier can 4 months of military produce? I still remember in the 80s when we had joint exercises with them all their conscripts had over 2 years of military training.
@InsaneRabbitDaddyYes, you can have 1000 US marines but with 4 months of training it not really helping, is it? A good example is Ukraine. They send fresh draftees to NATO for 4 months of training did that help?
同樣的人給美軍訓練4個月可以成為合格士兵，給中華民國陸軍4個月只會得到穿軍服的平民
Taiwan is definitely a country and I’m glad it has the support of the U.S., Japan, the Philippines and South Korea!
it has the support of US and Japan. South Korea and the Philippines have not yet officially supported Taiwan's defense.
@@theawesomeman9821They don't recognize our 🇵🇭 victory in the Hague against China. Why would we support them if they support the bullying of the mainland against us?
You don't need an army that can beat the other on the battlefield... You just need an army that will inflict enough damage to make it not worthwhile the effort or risk...
…and you also need an attacker whose calculations are based on honest understanding of costs rather than sclerotic sentiments of honor.
@@laulaja-7186 I get where your coming from on that point. If you care about your forces losses, your pretty much ready to go to war with anyone
You are awesome
The psychology of being in that first line of defence must be heavy. You do not expect to survive. You may get wiped out without pulling a trigger. You may never see the enemy but you stand your ground anyway.
The great lie works in all languages
1) I remember the vast majority of simulations and predictions talked of "Ukraine being overran in weeks".
2) Americans have more than 5000 nukes, China has 300. The number of nukes that are deployed and those that won't malfunction due to neglect are lower but still, the gap is large, I doubt China would risk nuclear war as long as their arsenal is not close in size to that of the US.
There is also the fact that Chinese nuclear weapons are more primitive, not up to par with American or Russian ICBMs
I can tell you right now. The amount of poorly maintained Nukes in the US arsenal is very very low. The maintenance and budget for these teams is like a bottomless bucket.
I think you underestimate the destructive power of a nuclear icbm, especially multi- warhead varieties. 300 nukes is more than enough to wipe the US off the globe. That being said, if that came to pass, the US has more than enough nukes to do the same to china and any of it's allies. All in all if a war goes nuclear no one wins. Lets hope it never gets to that.
Ukraine fully mobilized military is 1.1 million and tawain 2.2 million. But Ukraine troops are much better quality as they had experience in the 2014 Donbas war and do conscription for 12-18 months and they have way more equipment. whereas Taiwan conscripts have 4 months of training but it has a small but modern stockpile. Chinas military is also stronger than Russias. China military 2x the size is a volunteer force and has 4-5x the budget(3x purchasing power parity) both China and tawain can learn a lot from Ukraine war but their biggest factor in the war will be USA. With usa china would loose. Without usa tawain would loose
@@annyetapia8221it’s not like they’ll ever be used nukes are more of a I have them so you don’t use them on me or to scare. Like Russias nukes
5:44😂😂 bro fell out the back of the vehicle after training
Switzerland 🇨🇭 uses the same defense strategy.
Makes Kursk look undefended.
Long Live the Nation of Taiwan!
Whootwhoot Taiwan No.1 #Taiwan #taiwanisacountry #freedompineapple
@0:49 brain interprets the shot as "why did simon pull something out from star wars?"
As an American I support the full defense of Taiwan. I’m fully aware just how devastating it would be for the US and the world should China get its hands on the TSMC manufacturing plants. I would imagine there is likely a plan to completely destroy the facilities should China make gains in a conflict. And if that were to happen, then what would China even want with the island? TSMC is by far the most valuable asset in Taiwan and with that destroyed, the need for war is completely diminished.
the need for war in the eyes of the Chinese government likely lies more with U.S.A's first island chain strategy than on TSMC. We all saw how america dealt when a foreign power attempted to put weapons on a nearby island. But a full blockde of Taiwan would likely be seen as an act of war by china
Since most of these scenarios only take into account military confrontation, it would be interesting to see how China would fare when facing international sanctions to the degree Russia is, can't imagine the PRC would go mano a mano with Taiwan and the US without at least some of the significant nations imposing sanctions.
considering the amount of resources China needs that it imports and Russias instability making it unlikely to help in fhe amount needed, I can't imagine it would go well
Russia have done great from the sanctions though, the west sanctioned itself. We couldn't live without all that Chinese plastic rubbish these days.
China makes 75% of all medicine in the world. You can't sanction China.
Wow, I have exactly the same sweater vest!
How about numerous coastal subs ranging from 120-ton to 500-ton displacements? I mean coastal subs are inexpensive to develop and produce, far more survivable compared to any surface ships, and most importantly can provide anti-access and area denial. Imagine a single 300-ton coastal sub fires two modern heavy-weight torpedoes and sinks a transport ship loaded with troops and equipment.
Decouple from China!
Well if Taiwan developed tactical nukes, wouldn't that make china think twice, three times
They tried in the 80’s US pressured them to stop.
The US couldn’t help or encourage that act in any way as if we helped chinas enemies develop nuclear capabilities what motive do the Chinese have to not just do the same to ours?
Prob would work tho
You do that, and suddenly North Korea would have DF 41s, or Cuba, or Venezuela, or Iran. I dont think US want that to happen.
@95ellington yea looks like it's too late. A historical error for Taiwan. But then again no one lessens to the U.S. lRan, India, and Pakistan built nukes even tho America didn't want them to.
8:37 I'm sorry I just wanted to point out the fact that it looks like Simon murdered the cookie monster & turned him into a sweater!
Casual, fluffy & comfy!
This "In wargames we lose" tactic is a favorite of the military and defense industry to scare up more money and support for themselves. We keep going for it though, so if it works, they will just keep doing it.
Taiwan is a beautiful COUNTRY