Could North Korea Collapse?
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- čas přidán 26. 07. 2023
- Could North Korea's Kim regime be on the brink of a sudden fall? This eye-opening analysis delves into the devastating famine, Covid-19 impact, and potential collapse scenarios, including geopolitical consequences. Don't miss it!
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Kim doesn't look like he's missing any meals.
The only fat man in a country of starving people. The perfect visual analogy for communist "equality"
No, he always has been at home during meal times 🙄
Wouldn't be surprised if it turns out he's eating his citizens too
When Kim visited China a few years ago, the Great Firewall was set to block mentions of Kim Fat III or similar phrasings. I love calling him that.
I loved this joke I heard on the Internet: "Poor Kim. If you think it''s tough to be the only fat kid in your school imagine being the only fat kid in your entire country!"
In history, almost every society that encountered a famine ended up having the population overthrow the ruling government. N.Korea has now had it happen twice and the government continues to remain under control. It can't last forever.
The regime will not collapse if you keep the military loyal to you. In a famine the food you do have should be going to them so they don't turn on you
You clearly don't know history @@thesenate1844
And this is the fault of liberal west. We have send them food all the time. When USA food aid packages are there, theyr soldiers open those and pack to new bags which say that the great leader made this with love him self, enjoy dear peasent and please tell to nearest Officer if youre neighbour is spy and you can get new pack for free.
I read an account of a British diplomat in North Korea in the 2010s. Once, he was asked by a North Korean who was helping at his office, "how much did you say the latest missile test cost?"
He answered as best he could, using an estimate in non-Korean currency. then the employee said later that day "so how much is a kilo of rice in that currency?" Again, he answered as best he could. He became very worried about this woman, because he realized she had effectively asked "how much food could Kim's missile test have bought?"
Nice call. Black and white
i'm gonna assume it was enough to have fed everyone in the country
@@Luna_Kirisame well, maybe not everyone indefinitely but enough for some weeks or months! He did say she seemed hacked off about something later that day.
@@alexpeltier3330 oh i was thinking like, for a day. i'm not sure how much all that costs.
@@Luna_Kirisame Just ran numbers. They need about $66 million in today’s prices, of imported rice, or 15 million kilos, to make up a food shortfall this year. Probably cheaper when you can also use other food, they do grow some of their own, and the portions are not at that .6 kilos that would be an adequate ration.
In 2022, Kim spent $70 million on one test. He’s literally spending the grocery budget on rockets!
I used to have a job where I had to interact with North Korean diplomats. They always travelled in threes: The diplomat, one to watch the diplomat, and another to watch the guy watching the diplomat. It was completely out in the open and obvious.
Literally an old joke about KGB agents travelling in threes. One to read, one to write, and one to supervise the other two dangerous intellectuals.
When I lived in Strasbourg I worked for a Korean company. Our boss was well-connected in the S. Korea government and I used to spend hours talking to him. As we were right next to Germany, which was still going through the strains of reunification at that point, I asked our boss what he thought of the Koreas reunifying. He said that at that point the S. Korea government would parachute a bunch of aid in and wish the Northerners good luck. He thought the disparities and differences between the two sides as a nearly impossible hurdle for reunification to work.
Imho the biggest obstacle is China. Short of a major change they'll never let it happen and will go to war over people trying to organize it without their consent.
Amazing story! Thanks!
That would be the impetus for a quick reunion
I could swear I have read somewhere that the ROK/America doesn't even have a plan for if the North wanted to join the south and abide by its form of government.. It would honestly be the most expensive reconstruction/humanitarian project in the history of mankind to a point that I don't think any pundit could accurately predict the cost.
@@Gwildor2020 But that is a lot of cheap labour ROK could to drive down prices for goods an services
As someone from the US, leave that soldier that ran there right where he is. He knew what he was doing, and thought a dictatorship was better than facing the consequences of his own behavior. Let him find out what happens when you mess around.
He needs to know that when you mess around you most definitely find out.
I bet you felt bad for that dumb white kid that died in North Korea, but he also knew what he was doing could of ended in his death. Be consistent or be quiet
I honestly feel the same way.
Like dude is a full grown adult, he knows what he's doing and where he's going. We shouldn't waste our time on things as dumb as this.
He's not worth any concessions from the United States which is what North Korea will seek.
I am on US side but yes you people should just leave him there. As messed up as it sounds he is the one who volunteeringly started this. He needs to take responsibility for it.
if they're hungry, they're not worried about the government, they're worrying about their next meal
A mate of mine visited NK, and I called his hotel to ask him how is it?? He said -
'Can't complain'
A North Korean collapse would almost immediately lead to a Chinese occupation. Which probably would be good for North Koreans. You can't get much worse than the current regime
Gotta find those young people somewhere.
Idk man... i think if that happens SK is gonna launch a full scale attack into china, even if it risks a nuclear war.
It would be bad for the Chinese people. China is currently undergoing internal turmoil, which is good, given how their government has treated them thus far. They don't need more mindless NPCs to support the CCP.
This world will get its "great reset", but it's not going to go down how these "leaders" think.
Yeah, I don't see how this wasn't high on the list. I'd expect Kim to go straight to Xi as soon as any kind of coup started, and it's hard to imagine China _not_ jumping right in to avoid even the possibility of NK being reunified or otherwise no longer being a Chinese vassal state. A US/SK military intervention would result in a _direct war_ with China; putting that on the table by default seems to suggest this was not that well thought out.
The Chinese probably just want to secure the nukes and make sure the refugees are not flooding into China. Occupation is expensive
I wonder if any of those overseas workers that were locked out of the country during covid took that chance to defect
All the oversea NK workers have familly back in NK, all of them, it is mandatory, you guess why...
@@charlesjermyn5001those who defected know that they had essentially killed their families back home up to 3 generations.
Some maybe. But probably most came back due to not wanting to put their families in camps
NK is holding their families hostage
@@charlesjermyn5001 I think you mean "mandatory" instead of derogatory.
this is exactly why having a single entity or organization in charge of all the resources of a society is an awful idea.
Socialism sucks.
This video is so well done, thank you for sharing it. It was insightful yet terrifying!
The main reason why I doubt a unified Korea or a democracy shift in North Korea is that China would never allow it. If North Korea Collapsed they would be in there asap to stabilize the situation sadly
You stole what I was going to say, china likes there small buffer zone.
Shame really 😞
True but if the situation gets too far gone and riots break out, China may move in and push a puppet through while assassinating Kim and his family
Couldnt China just annex it? Would be better for everybody.
Correct. China will never allow reunification of Korea. They absolutely can not allow a US friendly country with US troops stationed in it to directly border them. If NK implodes China will preemptively invade it to reestablish the border.
This one point of people not trusting one another is an important one, in my opinion. North Korea is far from being the only nation that divides its citizens in order to keep its leaders in power, but it is a textbook example.
Yes. Honestly I sometimes feel this way in the U.S. I mean obviously it could be a lot worse. But I feel like a lot of people in the U.S are more than willing to narc on their "friends", neighbors, and even families these days. And don't get me started on Americans talking behind peoples backs.
@@theblondesiouxsiesioux Yeah, it's pretty bad here in the U.S. too. So few people appear to notice this, or even really care for that matter.
@@dave_riots Unfortunatley. I have a few examples from my neighborhood with people getting their neighbors in trouble essentially because they could, or because they were jealous, or had petty issues or that sort of thing. And that's just one neighborhood.
I see people talk behind others backs on a near daily basis both in and outside of work or school.
It's sad but sometimes it seems like you can't trust anyone anymore.. And yeah noone really acknowledgeds it.
Zionists gave a wall 400 klms o concrete walls
No comments
this is exactly what is happening in Hungary as well
I always enjoy your videos, and this one in particular really gave me food for thought. It is startling to consider the infinite and terrifying realm of possible endgames of Kim's death machine. I enjoy content like this because it shines light on how complicatedly dangerous this regime has grown. Their weapons don't have to "work" in the traditional sense. Their mere presence in such a torn nation creates conditions ripe for cancerous disaster. Thank you for creating these fantastic videos. I find them entertaining, educational, and always eye-opening. Thank you Simon & Team - keep it up!
The video about famine gave you food for thought? Bit on the nose but I like it 😅
great comment
I appreciate your reference to the analogy of cancer, I use this analogy myself in reference to the endgame of failing power systems, in that they are ultimately reduced to trying to sustain themselves, damn the cost to the environment they exist in or their alleged purpose
Tbf i m more worried about israel, pakistan and india having nuclear weapons than north korea.
The 3above are less stable and more prone to use these weapons...
Mercenaries on the OG Xbox and PS2 is actually a pretty interesting look at what a collapsing/failed Coup North Korea scenario might be. Featuring the expected players trying as well as what remains of the NK military and government trying to secure power.
Can you imagine how must unification will cost South Korea?
It cost Germany a small fortune and East Germany at least had had running water and electricity. North Korea can't even keep the lights on in Pyongyang.
😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😅
It costs a lot but someone needs to do it. And it falls to their ethnic brethren in South Korea. You need to take care of Family.
It cost a lot but in the long run SK will benefit from the increased natural resources, land and most importantly demographic which will be a boon for manufacturing by providing a huge labor force.
@@arthurlau98it’ll be a heavy drop at first but will start raising quickly if handled correctly
@@arthurlau98 "You need to take care of Family."
SK: You know what, you're right. *Cocks gun*
괜찮아 북한은 자원이 많다 철광석 팔면 된다
한국은 자원이 0이야
Andrei Lankov probably put it best on how things work in North Korea: "If North Korea has the choice between a new missile and feeding a quarter of a million farmers, they will always choose to let those farmers starve to death." It may not be entirely deliberate, but it is done consciously.
And it's ridiculous because what they have already is good enough to achieve their deterrence objectives.
@@Anton2046gfknThey apparently don’t think so. Their stockpile of chemical & bio weapons suggests that Kim views the only way to survive is to ensure that his collapse would literally unleash millions of deaths and utter chaos onto the entire world. So much so to the point that no one would consider toppling them & just leave them to their vices.
It's a bit scary to invade a country with nuclear missiles at least for their neighbours S.Korea and Japan. While well feed farmers aren't that scary and couldn't protect against invasion. That's why.
My god why does nobody understand north Korea has enough food?
The issue is the lack of money, people don't earn enough to buy themselves enough food because the government requires most of it to pay for projects and budgets, so they buy like 1 or 2 meals a day that are slightly less than the recommended intake of calories aswell as the fact that all of them have more important to things to pay for before food like rent, water, gas, that's why north Koreans are so skinny yet still healthy in some way or form, their body is below the needed calories but it is still working alright and allows the person to live on to his elder years.
@@valyshknee4203ok shill
North korea ran out of food because Kim ate it all
Thank you for allowing the speed of the video down. I was actually able to watch the entire thing and really enjoyed it. I wish your others were just a tiny bit slower as they are hard to listen to past a few minutes.
I remember Yeonmi Park said in one of her videos that those who blindly trusted the DPRK regime was the first to starve since they believed in that government would help him, instead on going "roge" in order to get their food.
Useful idiots who were used and then tossed aside
Yeonmi Park is a deceiver who fled to the US cause she was caught out lying on South Korea TV. Take anything she says like a pinch of salt.
Yeonmi park is so full of shit that I've heard jokes that she's actually a DPRK counter op in order to make defectors look bad, in reality it's because there is a lot of money in the grift
Yeonmi Park is a proven liar who just makes up stuff on the spot.
Okay but Yeonmi Park is a grifter.
I really love, how you put out this video right after the Russian Defence Minister went to North-Korea and told the world that North Korea is one of the strongest nations of the world.
Well the video could've used a nice comedic break soooo.......
Yes their army is massive and the Special Forces are the largest group of idealogues in one area since the Waffen SS but this again assumes their equipment and items are up to the task
@@lorencasuto1249 The North-Korean Military is a pile of garbage. A large pile of garbage certainly, but still garbage, and the praise of the defence minister of a country whose army is also a huge steaming pile of garbage is not really changing that.
The entire military is on meth.
@@lorencasuto1249doesn’t mean they’re less lethal
@@jpbazzano3636fair, but they wouldn't be able to actually fight in a war for very long since they'd have to feed their army...kinda hard to do that if there isn't any food
How many different channels is Simon host for? This man is everywhere!
I am an English teacher in Malaysia, most of my students are adults. I asked last week what they thought about reunification. About 60/40 for and against. Against we’re typically younger and have no emotional ties to NK. I was a bit surprised.
It really comes down to if China still has use for them
By extension, it also comes down to if China even has the capacity to do anything about it by the time North Korea did collapse, what with it's own myriad of issues it's facing.
I'm guessing China would be fine to see the NK regime collapse, and then they'll just annex it and set up a puppet govt.
@@QuantumAscension1China no matter how we think of it still, has a developed and LARGE military which would most likely secure the north part of North Korea, but i see Pyongyang in “NATO’s” hands, i doubt that achieving either of these things will be easy considering that the roads are made of sand, gravel and mud and unable to handle heavy artillery using them, keep in mind everything i said simply is my opinion and in no way do i consider myself an expert…
@@QuantumAscension1I honestly (and I don't like China at all) didn't know China had a ton of recent problems it was dealing with. What kind of things? I want to go read more about it. Thanks.
@@JeffStevensdemographics, banking and real-estate collapse, industries leaving China and their capital, and a youth that realizes their government is actively holding them back causing many to "Lay Flat" in their dispare.
I saw the NK embassy in Berlin and it was less than impressive when compared to other nations. The security camera turned to watch us as someone looked like they were leaving the building, they saw me and my friend and turned back around and closed the door. I mean, we were two tourists who stumbled upon the embassy and were laughing at it haha although it made me think. Whoever works and lives in foreign countries at their embassies is probably living the dream and a life far better than they would in NK.
You can be sure their families are hostage to the diplomats' loyalty. What a nightmare country.
Yea probably young soldiers who wish they didn’t have to be there. Even in our military. PTSD cases were ignored for decades. Imagine these troops are not 100% for Kim.
In 2017 I was in Berlin for my 20th birthday as I finished going to the area of treptow I went past a youth hostel that have a NK flag. It turned out that behind the hostel had the North Korean embassy and as I was taking photos, the North Koreans threatened me to delete them, later on the local news on the same day it turned out that they were smuggling missile materials!
Go to Gaza none
@@trvst5938
North Korea did not die for propaganda usa lies like Australia and New Zealand Fought to destroy n the invaders still not deafeated usa Lostb
Thank you for captioning! You rock!
Sigh...I watched this after watching a few "Gulf Stream collapse" and "Jet Stream collapse" videos. Incredibly entertaining, educational and terrifying. I try to keep up with all your channels.
One thing to consider in a foreign intervention scenario is that china is viewed quite favorably in north korea, while the west is vilified and despised. China would probably be met with cooperation to some degree, while western powers would probably be treated as invaders.
Good reason to stay out of things decades of anti Western propaganda isn't in our favour.
Understandably so, North Korea was bombed far heavier by the us than all of Japan in the 2nd world war which meant that on top of all the lives lost, virtually every city had to be rebuilt from the ground up. Then of course, Chinese support is the reason why the US couldn’t take the country entirely so it’s obvious why the west is hated and China is loved
@@dc6807not to them. US is one of NK’s biggest enemies and completely opposite from their ideas. And NK is fully brainwashed
@@dc6807
Surprise freedom 😂
really ? ! that might be the official stance, because if you try to escape via china they will ship you right back to reeducation in no time, not much of a favourable view
Stabilized food prices doesn't mean it Stabilized at an affordable price. It could have Stabilized At $100 for a gallon of milk
Stabilized prices (usually) happen before the prices come back down.
No food means no food. Money doesn't enter the equation when people are starving. Aggressive people will turn to cannibalism. Some will eat wild grass to survive (many grasses are nutritious). Many will hide and starve anyway.
Price fixing doesn’t work
Only a little gets sold at the government price
Most goes to the black market
@@SovereignwindVODs
NK isn't a "usual" economy.
@@tomhenry897 Wrong.Price fixing does work Nixon did it in the early 70s and it lowered inflation
Thank you for sharing another video
I agree with something closer to Richard Bush's "type 3" scenario. If the central regime somehow collapses, it would probably be like a warlord scenario like with China in the early 20th century with possible larger civil war between larger or allied factions. And there is China itself who has an interest in keeping a stable North Korean buffer.
1:20 - Chapter 1 - The hard unyielding earth
5:30 - Chapter 2 - Self inflicted wounds
9:40 - Chapter 3 - The enemy within
13:35 - Chapter 4 - Hope or horror
16:50 - Chapter 5 - Doomsday scenario
20:10 - Chapter 6 - The china factor
Timestamp: BreadTube - Chapter 7 - "But it wasn't REAL Communism."
@@The13thRonin - Ah yes, Peter Kropotkin, famous dictator and totalitarian /s
He says the borders into NK are sealed but that's not true, Trade from China to NK surged in 2022 and has increased in May of this year. So what is he talking about?
@SuperNostalgia.Hahahah
MVP
I don’t think it’s a given that South Korea would want to unify with North Korea; there’s a lot of South Koreans that think it’d be too much of economic hardship for them.
South Korea a Brain dead puppet for USA all they are merchants
At the same time, south korea might be in dire need of an influx of fresh youth... Which NK has...
Don t forget sk is slowly dying right now, with barely 0.8 kid per women.
@@etienne8110There’s better ways to go about that.
I do not know who this man is but his podcasts should be added to the curriculum of all US secondary schools
Very impressive analysis
really good one, once more!
Just a US Navy Sailor (worked in South Korea for 2 years) commenting on the deserter:
1. He ran there. Whatever happens to him is his own damn fault.
2. The last guys who had deserted to North Korea weren’t returned: they had to escape.
He’s probably going to make anti-American propaganda and be treated like a rock star.
DPRK has been propagandizing how Black Americans are murdered by the government security forces (police), and the racism of America. Now they have a Black American who can make movies and go around giving speeches about white supremacy in the US.
It’s a win-win for DPRK and the guy who defected. That probably why our government is working so hard to force him to come back.
The fact they could, shows that NK doesn't give a shit lol
they were treated like celebrities, they didnt want to leave
The last guy didnt want to return get your facts right
@@gaim44 don’t confuse a reactionary authoritarian with facts. He hasn’t bothered learning about the thing he’s formed an opinion on.
There’s a pattern here with right wingers. They like to get all worked up, and pretend to be experts about things they aren’t educated about.
There is this game for the PS2 called Mercenaries, and the premise is that North Korea is collapsing, leading to a series of different factions trying to rush in to plug the situation. China, South Korea, and a UN force are all rushing for control of the WMDs as well as key locations in the North. I think that was the game that got me interested in geopolitics, and if this video is right, the game certainly pegged the issues at stake.
I really miss that game...
@@Snarmeggedon I never see anybody else talk about it! One of those older games I wish could get a new lease on life.
@@daniell1483somebody would likely have to buy the rights in order to remake it.
Such a good game, calling in Artillery strikes
I remember enjoying that game. Never got to play the first game completely though
Been a HUGE fan for like a year!!! But I JUST found this channel!! Lol I subscribed…anything that has Simon Whistler in it…I am watching, liking, subbing etc…lol Idk How you manage all of these channels!! But keep it up buddy…you and your team is Awesomesauce!!
Great analysis!
If the Kim regime ever collapsed, and the people suddenly found themselves free, there's going to be a HUGE need for psychological help; the people have been living in basically what amounted to medieval servitude, with a huge dose of fear and paranoia tossed in for over half a century. They're going to have to be handled extremely delicately, and I'm betting a lot of the North Koreans STILL wouldn't survive the mental trauma.
Technically speaking it would be a refugee crisis worse than anything in modern history
I seriously doubt anyone in this lifetime will have to worry about it. The elites have a lot of income streams and they don't care that much about the people. As long as the soldiers are fed they'll be fine.
Dozens of millions of people live in what you call "medieval servitude" in Africa and no one seems concerned about that, why is North Koreans so special that would get all the help the people in Africa didn't get in 500 years of trade with the west? For North Korea would not be so different they would just change dictators from the Kim family to the chaebol from the South.
@@NoitNoit-ef2yq because they aren't comparable at all lol. tf is your view of africa?
@@NoitNoit-ef2yqNK has nukes. That’s why.
I have read that younger people in South Korea are not in favor of reunification, especially young, urban professionals. They know who will bear the brunt of the financial costs and sacrifices. They know what happened in Germany.
Spot on. It would be even worse than Germany, because at least the East Germans had some level of education and development outside of communist indoctrination. We’ve had three generations of rule by the Kim family now, and all the North Korean people know is what the Kim regime teaches.
Lmfao they really hate North Koreans. I’ve heard the stories of how North Korean defectors are treated like subhumans by South Koreans and those defectors end up having better lives in Europe and America instead.
@@slimdiddyd That’s also why I think Arab unification is also fucking retarded. You got the rich UAE and poor Palestine. It would be the most unequal nation in the planet
That's gonna be hard but worth it
@@rexomi17 but here is the question, is it? Is it really worth trying to smash together two countries that have been separated for over 80 years, and have been diverging culturally so much I am hesitant to call them a single people anymore. Cause I'm not sure it's worth it.
Great video mate 👍
Excellent and very informative video.
I read about a drug sting operation in Australia. Apparently the police were staking out a drug resupply operation at a remote beach and were surprised when a North Korea merchant vessel parked off shore and despatched some small boats that brought the drugs ashore.
Source?
@@archstanton6102drugs is one of north koreas number one exports is the source
Also very high quality counterfeit 100$ bills.
@@archstanton6102 Don't be so lazy.
The Australian Federal Police, Victorian police, Tasmanian police, NSW police, Australian Customs, Royal Australian Navy, Australia Army and a bunch of other agencies.
This is well known in Aus, Largely known as the "commie drug boat". Officially referred to as the Pong Su incident.
15 of April 2003 The AFP were tipped off about drug hand off and setup up surveillance in Boggaley Creek in victoria. They witnessed a drug hand off involving the North Koeran Ship Pong Su. Upon realising the ship belonged to a foreign government instead of a private company, police chose to back off and monitor the ship instead of intercepting it.
The next morning more drugs were found along with 1 dead crew member who died in the surf. Realising this was a major drug smuggling operation the incident was escalated to being considered a national security issue.
Police were ordered to seize the ship by force. But victorian police claimed they couldn't find the vessel. On 18th of April the Pong Su was detected in NSW and police attempted to intercept the vessel. The Pong Su changed course and headed for international waters. NSW water police pursued the vessel as far as they could but rough weather prevented them from being able to be able to follow.
The RAN dispatched HMAS Stuart on the evening of the 18th and ran down the vessel. On the morning of 20th of April a Tactical Assault Group bordered and seized the vessel.
30 men were arrested including "political secretary of the Koeran workers party", Choe Dong-song a North Korean offical.
Rather incredibly despite all the surveillance from federal police, the drugs found in surf, confessions of 3 crew members and footage of a multi day chase a Victorian jury actually returned non guilty verdicts for the ships officers and the political secretary who claimed that they had no idea the drug smuggling was going on and that they thought the crew went ashore "to get help". The fact that victoria is full of scumfuck communists may or may not be related this.
"They dont need to be good at anything, except suppressing any alternative" - Stephen Kotkin.
Just on Anthrax... You say that 100kg is a lot to transport to kill millions, but I regularly carry 50kg in my gear bag whilst climbing tele-comms towers. It's heavy, and I'm used to it, but I just wanted to highlight how dangerous Anthrax is and how easily transportable.
"Tubby Tyrant" Haha, good one
One thing that people that have gone on tours to the DMZ and Joint Security Area have noticed is that the troops on the North Korean side have been laying low since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. When that soldier defected to the North, there were no visible KPA troops on the other side to receive him.
There's a strong possibility that COVID-19 is just decimating the North Korean population akin to the "Arduous March" famine of the 1990s.
That is not only a unlikely idea, but also a very ignorant one but it is normal for imperial americans to think they know everything. North Korea start vaccination 2022.
@@user-hd4bm4ry9v Or so they say.
@@user-hd4bm4ry9vwho knows how many left lost prior to the vaccinations and how many they lost from the vaccinations themselves. You have to be healthy to receive vaccines you know. Or am I just a “know it all American”?
That would actually require COVID-19 to be anything like a deadly disease.
You sound vaxxed and regretful of it, bro.
Covid isn't decimating anything my dude
None of us like feeling old, but 2003 is *two* decades ago
And North Korea is pretty much the same or worse now than 20 years ago 🙄
Damn you for reminding me
Literally the opposite is true, the 90s were extremely hard for the DPRK because of the loss of one of their biggest allies, however they have managed to scrape together a better existence since then, especially with the help of china
Well thought out.
Very smart and wise commentary.
As others have said here. When NK almost collapsed during the Korean War, China stepped in. Same thing would most likely happen again.
If NK were to collapse, I don’t think china would save it again, probably just extend china’s borders.
But the whole point of NK is to have a buffer with democratic SK. So I guess it could go either way.
Unfortunately, given the current state of NK may be mass starvation, an outcome where NK becomes Chinese may actually be a huge leap forward for the people living there. I wonder though, how a Chinese controlled North Korea could possibly hope to keep millions of North Koreans from fleeing to SK if they suddently allowed NK to be open to China. They would probably have to keep the border locked down still. But then that begs the question, would China even want to take on the burden of keeping fed and reconstructing NK in the event of colapse?
China will not absorb NK because they are very insistent that a country's borders are inviolable and that sovereignty is very important. Their whole claim to Taiwan relies heavily on this.
China don't really know what to with NK which has become a real thorn in their side. Tbh, I think China would be okay if NK were absorbed by SK. Their biggest fear imo is a flood of NK refugees fleeing to China in the case of collapse.
Still, a new buffer state with a similar form of government as China would be a massive improvement from the current situation.
Thanks for reminding us of the history of this situation, i.e. what China did during the Korean War.
I doubt it. I mean the only reason China keeps North Korea afloat is to avoid having US allied South Korea on their border.
Korean unification is a long shot dream held by the west but not by Korea.
A good chunk of South Koreans don’t want unification due to the sudden influx of lower education workers, a sudden destabilisation of the country and more, and a good chunk of North Korea doesn’t want to because they’ve been kept under the impression the south is evil and other psychological conditioning reasons. Unification would be like shoving two distinctly different countries together due to the differences in culture, technology, economics and demographics. It’s unfeasible at this point unfortunately.
The only similarities the 2 countries have is race, language, and cuisine. That's not nearly enough of a reason to unify when they have opposite mentalities.
@@ChinnuWoW Well, they don't exactly have cuisine in common at the moment, so your point is even stronger.
It will happen, Korean national identity and pride is extremely strong. There are still families separated by the war. The unification will have to be gradual over several years.
Actually north Koreans would help to produce south Korean agriculture grow.
@@Micfri300 The north is mostly mountainous. Historically the industry was in the north and the farming in the south.
I was stationed in the ROK 1978-80. I was told back then that the ROK parliament building in Seoul was built with empty chairs waiting for re-unification.
And that is why the Animal Farm 1954 film's ending is actually accurate. Even with a rebellion against tyrants doesn't guarantee a happy ending.
Kim Jung Um is actually the Bond villain Odd Job.
And if the citizens are wondering where all their food has gone, it seems obvious that most of it ended up in Um´s stomach.
When his father was growing up. He thought that James Bond was a real person. And the movies were just telling his stories as a spy.
That is funny because it seems true, given the millions of famine deaths of North Koreans under Kim Jong-Un and his predecessors, namely his father and grandfather. This might be the most failed regime in history, with Somalia and Pakistan and Sudan foremost in that discussion.
I follow like 5 more of your other channels yet ever since the christmas truce video this has become my fav
Imagine there is only 2 obeese people in your county, one is you, and the others is your daughter 😂
Every time I check out a new video it’s Simon I swear lol
This regime is one disgruntled guard away from collapse. Let's go, brute!
It's been 1 disgruntled guard away from collapse for 30 years now
Nobody is bold enough
its crazy how every single video you make is interesting
They make.
I know right it's never fails to deliver not even once and that's rare.
@@ToTheNines87368 You is both singular and plural.
It also applies to organizations.
Let me know if you're still somehow confused.
@@tim3172 You’re obviously right. Thanks.
I just want to say that your speaking skills are excellent. Very rare for CZcams.
😂 Not the "Tubby Tyrant" 😂😂😂😂😂 im lmfao
Not sure if you and your team read all these comments but I just wanted to say that I’ve been watching your videos for two or three years now. I watch all of your channels (at least I think so, there are a lot to keep track of!) and warographics is by far my favorite! Keep up the good work!
Been hearing this for 20 years, not any time soon I don't think.
Imagine I have been hearing it since 1991 .........
The West Loves the Drama
But it’s probably going to happen eventually basically a one percent chance every year of the regime collapsing. It can keep going for a long time with those odds but eventually they’ll be unlucky at a time nobody expects.
@@kalliaslands9938and still North Korea will be Communist and Return Kim Family Thanks too Chinaman Remember the China Factor in the Last Part don't Delude yourself in any Collapse in NK aslong China is under CPC Ruled NK Regime will never Collapsed.
@@kalliaslands9938 I'm not disagreeing with you, but i'm not holding my breath either.
OFTEN, the tighter the grip, the more it slips through the fingers.
Its funny how you talk about famine and l am watching this while l am eating a bunch of food lol
there was a time when North-Korea was isolated from outside, but right now, North-Korea is isolating itself, because their leader knows, if people there knew the truth, their leadership would fall.
North Korean collapse is probably the best case scenario for Taiwan and American interests.
North Korean collapse would be the best interest for North Koreans and South Koreans.
Assuming China does not intervene... hopefully they won't. Hopefully they can just agree on a buffer area where the DMZ between the Chinese and Korean border would be in the bare minimum and the US can finally no longer be required to have a permanent prescence there. Conscription in Korea can finally end.
The Chinese should know they have nothing to fear about a truly democratic Korea... unless they make the first move.
It's the best scenario period.
It really isn't. They have nuclear weapons, delivery systems that make them a threat to SK, Japan etc and in a sudden collapse/overthrow scenario, Kim could very much attempt to fire them off in the nation's death throes, given that at that point he has nothing left to lose. A slower rate of decay is entirely preferrable to those interests than violent collapse.
@@triadwarfarewhat about the ethnic Koreans living in Northern China? They have a strong tie to North Korea. Will keep them there or kick them out or will some leave to South Korea?
I can't help but feel that the type 1, type 2 and type 3 collapses outlined by Richard Bush could be directly tied to Kim's level of diabetes at that point.
You missed Type 4, where Little Rocket man punches the launch buttons on the way out the door
Orwell didn't write 1984 as an instruction manual...
@@koontroll3364 I know. When you think the Kims couldn't get any crazier...
I wonder what simons house looks like with all the different sets he has for all the CZcams channels he records for
This video makes the often quoted assumption that South Korea wants to reunite with the North; and would do so the first chance that it got. In reality, this scenario is likely to be economically ruinous to South Korea. Having raised itself to "First World" status with a thriving modern economy, there is no evidence that South Korea would be prepared to expend an enormous amount of its hard fought prosperity to bring the empty husk of a collapsed North Korea back into one unified country on the Korean Peninsula.
Being annexed by either China or South Korea would be a massive boost for North Koreans, the lack of a buffer between China and the US aligned South Korea could be disastrous though.
Yeah that’s if they treat them as equal citizens and get along well
If you don't want to see famine in North Korea - just remove sanctions, which prevent import of basic goods.
The sanctions don’t target things like food and medicine.
Famine in North Korea will be unlikely Btw since it get more support by China and Russia even if there are sanctions put on their head.
@@baneofbanes they target everything
@@aresnir2725 no they don’t.
China has been (partially) ignoring the sanctions anyways and NK itself has been preventing anything from entering the country since Covid. It also has sufficient resources to be self-sufficient in terms of food security but it allocates all of its resources to those in the capital city and to projects such as weapons development rather than agriculture and infrastructure.
It would be wrong to say that the UN sanctions are causing this famine. Frankly the cause is the leadership who doesn't care.
The only way this happens is if people inside the country actually find out how bad they have it compared to everywhere else. They just dont know how bad it sucks there......
I've never seen you're videos, first time watcher. But, I have to say, something about your voice is soothing. Can't really explain it. You should work for a radio station or something. Please do audio books as well 😂
Excellent presentation on a very tragic situation.
Im loving these analytical videos of how our current state of affairs could shape our future! You making me sound super smart around my friends 😂 awesome work as always Simon 👏🏽
Excellent
This is chilling! 🤔
It be interesting too see what actually happens if it does.
Also poor Zimbabwe having fallen so far.
A civil war could end up with a North North Korea and a South North Korea
East North Korea and West North Korea would become breakaway republics
And eventually we end up with the puppet buffer state of the Democratic Peoples Utopian Collective Soviet Republic of Mr Kim (population 1) serving as the boundary between north north north north Korea and China.
😂
That’s foolish
We might have 3 Korea's, north middle and south
I was just thinking that North Korea Shall fall and Collapse just like the USSR collapsed in 1991 because we just need a new Korean Country to be Part of NATO Alliance and be the part of United Nations too
Kim has planes that fly in his meals from Europe and Asia while his country starves.
Great video. The North Korean people really suffer in a way that is almost unimaginable.
It's authoritarian, but North Korea isn't actually that out of the norm in terms of life indicators for Asia and realistically, you will likely have a better life living in North Korea, than say, Bangladesh, alot of India and much of Africa.
@@pfftnuffinpersonalkid1541whaaaat living in these countries is much better than the most oppresive country ever
@@amat9285African nations like to have words.
@@Peopleunder rather live there than north korea you'll have more freedom
@@amat9285 muh live north Korea , that childish argument kiddo.
I like the Enron mug, nice touch... inevitable collapse, I get it .
The Enron mug is a nice touch.
Considering the tightly controlled nature of North Korean society I think that is very unlikely at the moment.
Sometimes that tight controll can slip insanely fast all it requires is One incident that goes out of control quickly. i mean look at all kinds of theese things in history The Colonial United states bucking british. the french revolution something that was initially started by upper noble and middle houses but they lost control as more and more of the lower class got into the revolution even Russia has had drastic change in goverment. all it takes is one thing to kick off a big enough fire and suddenly all the little issues combine into one BIG issue. i could honestly see a french revolution style change where some high up military mind or elite tries to rally the poor against kim and become the new big cheese under estimates just how Pissed people are going to get and pretty soon the capital is burning and All the upper elite are getting a fun head removal.
The top guy looks pretty well fed, as usual.
"Impulsion" ? New word just dropped ! 😂
Simon talking about famine with a two-tone Rolex on. 🤣
I love watching the beard changes with Simon over time
Couldn't help but notice your Enron mug. NICE
There’s multiple docs on CZcams that show you first hand how bad it is right now.
I really think that North Korean defectors do not exaggerate anything
A united Korea might be too much to hope for but I at least hope for a Korea in which the people are no longer forcibly separated from one another.
Kim Sungeon is right, the PLA would probably begin to enter NK, even before a full collapse, and it is very probable that the NK Northern border units commanders are already more or less in Beijin's pocket, they will be faster, more numerous, and have the initiative (Chinese plan is probably already made for such case while most of US known plans are for the eventuality of a North to South Korea attack). The Chinese flag will wave over Pyongyang before the American congress even take a decision and anyway, that decision... has a good chance to be a "no" especially if China is already taking care of MDW.
But South Korea has their own plans
@@Dave102693 True that everyone's position has been considered exept the one from the main concerned. However, I think that is because, for SK to have a proper plan means without the Americans, which seems unlikely, for a collapsed NK means hundreds of thousand of soldiers from the NK army on the loose which they would probably hardly deal with. That's why SK plans have not been considered.
China seems to be happy with a buffer state. China doesn't want the responsibility of the rubble pile so they will "reward" someone with its stewardship and bring NK more in line with Chinese principles and foreign policy. Less antagonistic but no less hostile to Western influence. Probably feed the work force but their lives probably would get much better unless China invested in infrastructure. They would still be mostly responsible for themselves.
Kim Jung Un executed his pro-China uncle Jang Song Taek for being too close to China and there were even rumors that Beijing wanted to replace Kim with Jang. It's extremely naive to think autocratic regimes are somehow close to each other. Kim hates Beijing's influence and the North Korean public detest China too. Force occupation of a country with harsh terrain and climate, and where every single male served 10+ yrs would be the biggest mistake the ccp will ever make. PLA don't know how to fight anyways. Beijing will probably do what it can do best, using under handed tactics to establish pro Chinese government.
I doubt that China will be able to control the Korean population Korean nationalism is very strong maybe more so in NK let's look at history the last time China directly controlled Korea was 2,000 years ago