What Is Moneyball?
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- Äas pĆidĂĄn 28. 11. 2016
- What is Moneyball?
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Alex Stewart explains the phenomenon that is 'Moneyball', from it's founding under Bill James and Billy Beane, to it's modern usage in English football.
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#moneyball #transferwindow #mlb - Sport
I thought the Liverpool strategy was just to buy anybody that's playing well for Southampton
step into Southampton Shopping Center!!
summer offer- buy one get one free
Curious... isn't that what ManCity has been doing for years with Arsenal?!
Saurez, Courinho, Sterling, Salah, Firmino
@@xDIABOx aSounds lik Tottenham and Man U
If you haven't heard of it yet, look up the statistic called packing. It was invented by a German ex pro who had to retire due to injury. Basically it's how many players you take out of the game with a pass, dribble or movement. It's being used more and more in Germany and I don't think it'll be too long till it makes its way over to the UK.
joshfcum you're right the packing stat plus IMPECT is a refined version of passing and on ball stats. Just heard interview with originator and was fascinated.
Tom McCool any chance you have a link to that interview?
Xhaka has great numbers in that metric
@@salehnasir9157 Xhaka is prime example for moneyball. Everyone says he's bad. He's slow. But when he doesn't play, Arsenal gets hammered, as if there's no midfield.
@@felhasnalo They got hammered alright đ in the europa league
"Players who have done well at an international tournament are probably over-valued" - Moussa Sissoko and Hal Robson-Kanu immediately come to mind...
Tottenham don't use moneyball transfer policy, I guess then.
We do, i believe it was more due to the avaibility heuristic phenomen combined with missing out on a lot of real targets which forced the panic buy later on. If you need to be reminded about tottenhams moneyball philosophy,just look at Dele Alli, Eriksen, Alderweireld just to name a few.
Don't forget about James Rodriguez.
Ned Lightowlers but robson-kanu waa free
marcos rojo
The big three portuguese clubs are masters at this, especially Benfica
Portuguese being the language of Brazil and having very similar cultures is a big advantage for Portuguese clubs
@@scottwhitley3392 Moneyball is a baseball thing. Hard to do it with basketball or soccer (football).
Justice Hussein didnât you just watch the video?
Brentford are the best at using this
@@jamespunter4593 Ivan Toney , Ollie Watkins . Interesting .
Staggering how there's no mention of ArsĂšne Wenger here, godfather of analytics in football and Billy Beane himself said he was a fan of Wenger's method.
elnenny xhaka and paulista are stat signings
Also specialist at failure đ
@@hakim6158 Xhaka does work. Every time he isn't on or he plays left back, Arsenal gets hammered, they run through their midfield. People say "Xhaka is slow", but the stats say he is valuable, so it's a moneyball signing.
oh and I'm a MU fan btw...
@@felhasnalo well yeah that's what I said he's a stat signing. I'm just stating the players I know were signed on the basis of stats not saying it failed.
this concept can be used in all spheres of the business world. its all about crunching the numbers and ignoring press hype
Most fans still can't get it out of their heads that you don't have to buy the 60 million pound striker to win the league.
Master Leicester proved that last season, Jermain Defoe has proved that too by scoring tons of goals for a shit team. teams just need to realise that the long term player stats are more important than recent form
We should all enjoy having our comments replied to by this channel, because it's going to blow up anytime now
Another great video!
Haha thanks mate!
We'll always reply to comments no matter what happens
Right! Look where they are now! So happy for uMaxit!
Probably the best vid from you yet , glad this strategy has been covered , so happy Clough was an part of this , having read extensively about him it's clear he was using a version of moneyball during his managerial career , clear evidence of Clough and Taylor's vision .
Amazing concept isn't it
uMAXit Football yes it is , I've read about how clough recruited , rough diamonds like John Robertson , it's clear it was an early less intricate version of moneyball without data , really like the comparison in the vid , really like your stuff , thanks for circulating this stuff đ.
lobanovsky was doing this way back in the days of that dynamo kiev. absolute legend of a manager, that doesnt get enough attention.
You might also note that John Henry bought the Red Sox which hadn't won the World (kind of North American) Series since 1917 and used Moneyball to win 3 WS in 12 years.
Tom McCool sort of. First, it was 1918. Second, the Red Sox themselves had/have always been big spenders just not as big relative to the Yankees(my team btw). And third, while Henry's hiring of Theo Epstein was an adoption of moneyball style Sabremetrics, the third championship you mentioned in 2013 saw Theo gone to Chicago and several years prior of high profile free agents being signed. It may not have been a complete abandonment of the philosophy, but Sabremetrics played a much smaller role in the building of the 2013 team than 2004 and 2007.
He also originally wanted Billy Beane to be the manager but Beane declined them and went back to Oakland for his daughter. This was depicted in the movie as well.
nyyfanvkamath I mean David Ortiz was an undervalued asset... and aside from that, the 2013 Sox are the only team to go from last place, to the World Series, to last place
@@Starbrahan72 the twins went from last in 90 to winning in 91 also
Dylan Duffy true, but they didn't immediately regress the following season
This is possibly the best video for anyone who plays any form of football manager. I play top eleven and ive used these analytics to find players for nothing and turn them into superstars. everyone needs to watch this.
Bases are square in baseball, only home plate is a pentagon
Well tbf this is a football channel
And home plate faces the other way
Great Vid yet again, just found this channel but I can see it hitting 100k in no time .
I'll streak a EPL game if we hit 100k by summer.
uMAXit Football u deserve it tho
I regret the streaking comment.
uMAXit Football What Game Are You Gonna Do It In Then?
Come on Joe!!!! đđ
This video is so beautifully written, especially the way the script alternates between the "what" and "so what" of moneyball to show its specific aspects, and then ties them to the wider significance of why they occur in the way they do. Thanks for creating content that's both enjoyable and informative!
Guys, this content is superb. I learned so much about European football through your videos, and I just watched the Tifo Basketball vid on Pop. It's nice seeing your breakdowns on subjects I'm well versed in as an American and I look forward to more!
Wow ! This crucially combined both sport knowledge and the data analysis involved in a perfect way...
It seems to me that Moneyball as a concept is more successfull in baseball because there is a specific statistic (on base percentage) that can be prioritised - football is a more mercurial, less regimented sport and that's why i believe it requires a less strict regimented approach to scouting... i don't believe moneyball will ever work in football the way it's worked in baseball without being adapted to be used as part of a holistic scouting system...
That's a great point
Fantastic insight
To further add to your point, in baseball, every single moment of every single play can be statistically measured. There is a statistic for everything in baseball, so you can look at all your stats and then make a decision. But that isn't the case in football, because there isn't a stat for everything.
Additionally, there is a tremendous amount of positional freedom in football. In one system, a position that a player normally takes up is very good, but in a different manager's system, the position that that player normally takes would leave a player exposed. In football, the playing style of the club matters, so therefor the best characteristics in a player are subjective to the club.
Yes, baseball with its stop-and-go style of play it seems is more congenial to statistical analysis. However, you could also argue that detailed statistics are not only a recent component of football, but also a developing component (I believe assists in England's first division were not even recorded until the Premier League Era). But today, not only do we track assists but also km traveled, passes made, pass completion, successful dribbles etc. As we find more ways to translate football play into stats, I believe that we will discover football to be less "mercurial" than we once believed.
Good points but Moneyball can still be used in a general sense. Let me give you an example: David Beckham. Ironically Beckham can be used as an example of Moneyball showing his bad traits ( overvalued name player) and his good traits: undervalued skills.
A common criticism of Beckham was "All he can do is pass and take free kicks". To which a sane person would say, "AND"???
If I find a guy who is utterly fantastic at free kicks, he can waddle around for all I care. Another similar example would be a great "fox in a box". I don't care how long he can play keepy-uppy or how fast he is if he's a great finisher, a good man in the air or just has great vision on creating space. However he does it, he's putting the ball in the back of the net.
So to sum, I agree with you, but think it has a place in general philosophies.
Leicester did use some type of moneyball to greatly influence their EPL winning season,but not the emphasize were not on recruitment, instead they use data-driven approach in regards to maintaining players fitness. Leicester had 3rd smallest squad size in 15-16 season,but achieved best injury record of all PL team. No wonder we saw Mahrez, Vardy and Kante's ever-presence while Man.UTD couldn't even keep Schweinsteiger fit for more than 8 games. am a Man UTD fan, by the way
Easily your best video. And probably the best of any football channels on YT> Cheers and thanks.
Banging thank you mate!
Great video as always! One small thing though, the club Kanté played for is called SM Caen (Stade Malherbe de Caen), not SC Caen.
Brentford just moneyball'd their way into the 2021/2022 Premier League!
Such a simple explanation, thank you
Honestly the film is one of the best I've ever seen... Can't wait to read the book again
Very interesting theory, I imagine this is something Arsene Wenger considered extensively! The thing with stats and player value is however, different scouts' opinions will vary as to what the stats correlate to in value - ultimately stats will show how good a player is up till that point in time, but will never reveal the players potential. Also, re: Kante, it would be interesting to see how those stats compared with others in the french league and the prem. Fantastic video, as always! :D
Videos are so good I had to subscribe! Helps with Football Manager lol
Also tampa bay rays are now the new king of money ball. Their baseball team is not only booming this recently but the whole tampa bays sports scene as a whole
this channel is quality. Should have more subscribers.
DA BRO thank you!
The headline of this episode should have read "Data is now used by all sensible clubs to find the next Kante."
What a player he is.
very insightful.
thanks for the upload!
No problem :) - Danny
I'm American so I don't know shit about soccer and this channel is bad ass so many facts and stats I love it I'm learning a lot about soccer or futbol
didnt fc midtjylland do this a couple seasons back and won the danish league for the first time in their history.
Odei Ony and then Matthew Benham of Brentford bought into them and they have since stuck by 'Money Balling'....it even led to Mark Warburton walking away as he didn't agree with that transfer method. Players like Ryan Woods, Lasse Vibe and Yoann Barbet are all Money Ball purchases yet none of them are really anything to write home about but they perform well for Brentford now in the Championship. So it must work, most of the time at least?
Late to the party but the whole concept was popularized by Bill James book, however was first used by Davey Johnson who argued he was better batting 3rd in the lineup instead of 1st.
seriously, a great video!
your videos are just amazing
As are you.
great insight as always!
Cheers sir!
This guy's voice is so calming, I put this on to help me sleep.
The ASMR of football
A players value is how you use them. Stoke were able to make Rory Delap one of the worlds most feared set piece takers because of the height they had in there side
Great explaining video! Long live Brian Clough & Peter Taylor!
Wonderful video!
Amazing effort
Liked the french words at the end ;-)
Could you do one about the rise TP Mazembe, my friend dad owns the club and its really interesting how he transformed the team. THX for the great vid
I miss videos like these
Watch a couple videos and addicted to this stuff
Talk to Frank if it gets serious.
i read some article a few years ago about the danish club FC Midtjylland that was using it very effectively, maybe you can make a video about them.
amazing
Kenny Burns they also converted him from striker to defender.
Clough and Taylor from "The Damned United" :O
To my knowledge, Celtic are doing this all the time. Or at least have been doing over the course of the last 6-7 years. Either picking up undesirables (like Newcastle reserve keeper Fraser Forster) or young hidden gems (like Victor Wanyama or Virgil Van Dijk) for relatively low fees and selling them on a few years later for overwhelming profits while maintaining some success on the park. For example, they picked up Van Dijk for ÂŁ2 million and sold him to Southampton for ÂŁ13 million. They picked Wanyana up for a paltry ÂŁ900,000 and ended up selling him to Southampton also for ÂŁ12.5 million. Fraser Forster was eventually picked up for ÂŁ2 million and sold to Southampton (yet again) for ÂŁ10 million. And to a lesser extent, they signed a relatively unknown Ki Sung Yeung For ÂŁ2 million and sold him to Swansea for over ÂŁ6 million and bought Gary Hooper for ÂŁ2 million and sold him to Norwich for ÂŁ5 million. They're doing it once again with young Moussa Dembele, who only signed for them 7 months ago for a ridiculously low fee of ÂŁ500,000, and now several sources claim that a host of major clubs are exceedingly interested in him and is looking increasingly likely he'll go for upwards of ÂŁ20 million or over. If it's done right, it's absolutely the best strategy forward in a flawed footballing system which is just spending far too much money on average or ageing players with no resale value.
It's a super interesting idea but it's a hard one to grasp especially in football where unlike Baseball there are a bunch more leagues with different standards and styles which make judging talent far harder
this video was great, just like the movie
GFMRLL I never liked the movie that much though I loved the book.
And I watched the movie first too.
Video needs to be updated, Brentford are one of the best in the game when it comes to "Moneyball"
The articulation in your videos sets you apart from other channels related to football.
Someone need to forward this to Man-Utd...we're shit right now..
Hyperion No need. Eric Cantona.
Ignatius Sia He was a player in the 90's so hows that gonna help them now lmao
loooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooool
Good video
Great insight, supported by great videos. The guy behind this channel must be a keen growth investor, inspired by the ideas of Benjamin Graham. Among others.
Mane was a amazing success of money ball for Liverpool
It's only a competitive advantage when it is a competitive advantage. A team sport relies less on individuals than baseball so many directors of football have made quite the transfer errors.
Slowly but surely, Kante is becoming the most talked about footballer on the planet.
From watching him I feel like he works harder than most if not all big players right now. It probably takes a lot of discipline to work that hard every game and I for one am in awe of him!
You could argue he's the MVP for this season and last season. He doesn't score, but he wins the ball. If you have possession the other team can't score. Leicester wouldn't have won the EPL without him last year. It's difficult to say how Chelsea would fair without him, he's contributed so much already though this season. He'll probably become the first player to win the EPL in consecutive years with different clubs.
â@@rickenfatania
2015/2016 EPL with Leicester
2016/2017 EPL with Chelsea
2017/2018 FA Cup with Chelsea
2018 World Cup with France.
he really is now
@@consistencylife4335 wow. I can't even remember making this comment. 'Slowly but surely' indeed.
Good video.
Good comment.
Lol the drawing of the diamond
So basically moneyball is stronger recruitment than most clubs who base signings on current form and no longevity. A big example of this I'd say is West Ham with signings like Carlos Sanchez and Jack Wilshire who realistically don't have a brilliant record in terms of statistics but are bought based on current hype and form at one point in their career of which there is no evidence that they can be consistent. Great video
Do a history and the fall of the racing club de lens
What program you made on this video?
value investing in sports
Could you do a video on das reboot please
One of the big things about moneyball is that it's buying wins (and therefore goals/runs etc) rather than themselves
the best way to play money ball is 2 things in football. First is buying youth that show 4 attributes a great possession base rating meaning Passing Accuracy%, Successful Dribbling%, a high Tackle and Interception ratio around 4 take aways a game. Able to last in any type of system. Having these abilities will create goals and wins at every postion beside GK.
the 2nd thing?
The one thing baseball sabermatrics differs from a sport like football is because in baseball, there is no teamwork involved for the most part. It is a team game but outside of a few things like throws players act individually. All the statistical data you want isnt going to tell you how well players are going to play with eachother in a sport like football where team work a gelling is extremely important.
And Billy Beane just bought became a part of consortium that bought Barnsley..
Excellent video, now need to do one on the misinterpretation common in football leading to an incoherent transfer strategy (ie players don't fit in a system) and which clubs are misguided in solely relying on moneyball as it's first opinion, when missued it doesn't correlate to team sports. Perhaps american owners are guilty of confirmation bias from the success of baseball which is more individual and less teamwork than football. The nigel clough explanation is a good example to explain the simplicity of the method, rather than focussing on a metric you can copy and paste from baseball.
what whiteboard software do you use?
Good video, but the music doesn't really work for me...
IMPECT & Packing Is the future of Moneyball Football
So you use "ÂŁ35m on Andy Carroll" liverpool as an example of moneyball instead of "ÂŁ2m on Koscienly, ÂŁ10m on Giroud" Arsenal?
DaJalster28 More successful: Suarez, Henderson (Not sure why he counts), less successful: Carroll
The most famous example of Arsenal using data to find players was some winger disappointed in Juventus arriving from Monaco.
DaJalster28 carrol was used as an example of when it doesn't work...
J Hughes my point is that liverpool are a terrible example of moneyball considering the vast sums of money they spend on journeymen.
Arsenal aren't a good example either; arshavin, podolski, Vela etc.
coming back to this video and seeing brentford used and dropped it only to find out they are still using itđđ
Just for the record,Suarez was already under review for purchase,before FSG even took over LFC or got Comolli in,it was well reported we had scouts at their games watching him,as early as 2009 and had engaged in talks before Comolli came.
Personally I don't think stats work in an invasion sport, in static sports such as baseball cricket tennis,it's a 1vs1 approach,pitcher vs batter,bowler vs batter etc which means it's a lot more predictable.On an outfield pitch you have multiple variations of tactics in game,swapping wings,sitting deep to protect a lead etc. It'soften why mistakenly keepers at lower clubs have inflated stats. as their defensive lines are usually more rigid and try to restrict shooting to long range. I feel in footballyou need to rely on scouts a LOT more than just numbers,as the variables change on the field with each clearance,yellow card etc which can't really happen in static sports.
I like your take on Kenny burns however,and feel that a great many players go un appreciated/undervalued. Nothing highlights this more for me than when a player can play in the lower leagues and climb though all 4 divisions(or a similar vein) and become and established prem player, the like of Gareth Mcauley,Kevin Davies,Steve Finnan,Ashley Williams,Jamie Vardy,Jimmy Bullard etc. This for me highlights a SEVERE weakness in the scouting system which I believe undervalues British players at the lower level,players that could potentially be good for England. Dele Alli is one specific example who walked straight into the England sideafter signing for spurs he'd have never got a look in at MK,
Robert Campbell Well the evidence would say you are wrong and we didnât sign Suarez before fsg regardless of your rumours . Absolute nonsense comment and fsg have done a brilliant job .
Calling Brentford a failure at Moneyball hasn't aged well...
So it's all about crunching the numbers and getting the timing right?
David Hax Not really, but the numbers help narrow down.
Me, an Oakland A's fan, wandering in for some wholesome football entertainment... 0:53 đ©đ«đ
why are there 4 home plates? 1st second and third base are squares and home is a pentagon
I think this is how some teams like Leicester City, Atletico Madrid and some other teams became very strong.
i think you read soccernomics and your content is summary of the book.....
finally brentford with money ball promote EPL đ„đ„
Please please do what has happened to Birmingham city football club
For example, look at Monaco and their scouting. They bought players for absolutely nothing before and just look at how much profit they've made. Mendy, Bakayoko, Bernardo Silva. Amazing.
If moneyball is to be successfully adapted to football they'll need to find the football equivalent of on base percentages. I just get the feeling that football is more nuanced than baseball. Player suitability is just one of many factors that affect whether a player will prove a successful recruitment. In 2009 Pep Guardiola set his sights on Ibrahimovic as a player to elevate his treble winning Barca side with Eto'o to make room for him. On paper it was a perfect transfer, a match made in heaven the stats would likely have suggested. And so I ask which stats should have alerted Beguiristain and Pep that Ibra would slow down Barca's attack and that playing him in the champions league semi final against Inter would play into mourinho's hands and lead to defeat ?
Could you argue that certain positions are always undervalued? An expensive high profile striker is great, and you probably do need one to win anything, but no one has ever done anything without a solid midfield. All things considered, 35M Kante seems like a much better value to me than 250M Neymar.
My 2 cents.
MPrime Iâve always thought goalkeepers are hugely undervalued in football when you look at transfer fees. Most teams donât win without a good keeper yet only a few have ever cost more than 30 million
4:04 here after Brentford got promoted
And the bees are now in the premier league due to money ball
I just dont get how they didnt think OBP was that important in baseball before
Well, it's always tough to tell, but OBP had and has been measured for a long time as it is a division of simple counting stats. Of course it was seen as important; however batting average (AVG, number of hits/at bat) was and still is a more widely used metric probably because it is easier to relate to and determine what is good (.300+) and bad (.220-). The batting title is based solely on this statistic, even though it does not take into account other ways of getting on base such as walks (OBP does that) or how far the players got on a hit (SLG, which stands for slugging, does that (total number of bases reached by a hit/at bat)). Other traditional statistics such as runs scored and runs batted in are becoming less and less popular by baseball evaluators as they depend on how well your teammates do. The moneyball movement and subsequent valuing of different statistics has even led to a change in the game. Hits are valued less and strikeouts, which used to be the worst thing that could happen to a batter, are not seen so negatively anymore. Nowadays, batters are expected to see a lot of pitches and swing as hard as they can if they are to their liking, leading to a lot of walks (high OBP) and home runs but also a lot of strikeouts and less hits in total (low AVG). It has changed the game of baseball and lowered the dynamics of the game even further.
Do a profile on arthur milo
Great video but don't think this will work for larger clubs thou, because once w club like real Madrid Barcelona r let's say a Manchester United the value of the player rise no matter how under rated that player was ..
This is straight up 'Value Investing' players instead of stocks
Football statistics are always being used to mislead.
most important events in the game which are ignored
the volume of opportunities for players to assist a teammate [and were not taken]
volume of 40 : 60s won
physical characteristics of every touch, i.e. the players who successfully manipulate the ball, decelerate the ball, and avoid accelerating the ball unnecessarily
The UK is full of players failing to control the ball, then people lying about that
All of Europe knew who luis Suarez was
Timipre Max Because he kept biting people??
Oakland As did this first
dank cookies Well yeah, it's covered in the video.
SL Benfica is a Moneyball based football club
neburc97 are they good???
I think porto does better moneyball than benfica
Coutinho is a great example or just lucky?
Brentford still use this they haven't stop using this kind of system maybe you should do more research
Maybe because this video was written and made 4 years ago?