What If America Was FULLY Neutral During WW1?
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- čas přidán 9. 12. 2022
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Despite only getting involved in the war in 1917, the United States was one of the most influential nations during the first world war thanks to their sheer economic weight. Who American supported, traded with, loaned money to and generally supported had the massive advantage of the strongest world economy on their side. In our timeline, this side was the Entente, who even before 1917 enjoyed massive trade relations with the US keeping the economies afloat, and American loans keeping their budgets tight. What if this was different though. What if, in an alternate scenario, the United States managed to enforce freedom of shipping during the first world war, and Germany had the luxury of equal trading relations with the Americans.
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What if the Russian empire survived to this day.
What if Japan took over China in 1940????
What happens to the Dervish? Are they ceded Somalia?
What if the USA and Japan became Georgist after World War Two?
What if Australia became Georgist in the Great Depression? in this scenario, Australia implements a Georgist land value tax to help deal with the effects of the great depression.
Alternative history is actually an important part of history because it tells us a lot about WHY things happened the way they did.
@andrew slater yes
Better than the average public school, lmao
As long as is it done with research and critical thinking. Some of these channels just spout what they *want* to have happened instead of what realistically *could* have happened
exactly. all historical discussion is actually about this.
@@wildfire9280 Better than school in general, I didn't even know Ancient Egypt and Rome was a thing for years because the only "historical events" I learned in school were the World Wars and the Cold War (with the dictators that goes with them).
The schools where I live sucks *.
What if Serbia was fully neutral during WW1 lol
Imagine the Serbian government just… throws the black hand under the bus and tries to stay away from them
@@Alex-yy5wo "we're friends, right?"
"......"
"right....?"
"AY AUSTRIA THIS GUY RIGHT HERE"
"SHI-"
@@beanos8024 "Yooo Austria don't do anything you're gonna be sorry for, here. That guy is hanged in public, friends?"
*Roll Credits*
Lmao
While US intervention may not have been a deciding factor in Germany's defeat in WW1, I seriously doubt that Germany would unconditionally surrender to the Entene like they did IRL. Actually a lighter peace deal like this could make for an interesting alternate history scenario to explore.
No, if Germany surrendered without Europe, they would barely exist, the US is the only nation that was against "Imperialism - So Say", the Allies wanted to annex chunks of land, without care of the population their . .
America was like since I helped you, I will break down Germany but not "annex" their entire country (looking at Britain and France, + Italy). . . .
USA only liberated in so say . . .
@@bobbyuuu1238 yeah but they wouldn't ever unconditionally surrender if America doesn't join. They would be winning militarily
@@bobbyuuu1238 which Germany wouldn’t accept a peace deal like that
There was no unconditional *surrender* in WWI, that was WWII having learnt the lesson of WWI. The Germans in 1945 where surprised that unconditional surrender was their only option.
@@jonathanbuzzard1376 Unconditional, less conditional; the same point still stands. They couldn't take as much from Germany or impose as many terms like total demilitarization like they could IRL.
The root cause of Germany's unrestricted submarine warfare was to counter the British blockade of Germany. Also, it was an answer to the way that British merchant ships were armed and began attacked German submarines when the submarines approaches British merchant ships. Originally, German uboots would approach a British merchant ship, surface, and announce that it has been captured, and have the sailors evacuate the ship, then it would be sunk with torpedos. Later the British start to arm the merchant ships and also have destroyers disguised as merchant ships, so they can fire upon the subs when they surface. So Germany uboots started to have unannounced attacked on civilian ships, that was the origin of the unrestricted submarine warfare.
The key question is if the US stays absolutely neutral, then the US should be objecting to the blockade of Germany. If not, then how would US trade with Germany? So if US insist on trading with Germany, then the UK would stop US shipping like it did in real life. And that would eventually become a causus belli like in 1812. So US cannot stay absolutely neutral without eventually having to cave either to the UK or till over against the UK.
US could continue to trade with UK and Germany at the same and insist that both UK and Germany would not attack its shipping wherever they are headed, but that is not very likely.
It was the dumbest thing Germany ever did. If they had any tact. They would have traded with the US to.
If the US was truly Neutral, well German Money is good to.
although im not sure about the uk's desire to trade with germany's trading partner, im glad you brought up the origin of unrestricted submarine warfare.
Usa would probably use the netherlands as a neutral port to trade with germany
That would probably mean that the Netherlands would have a massive economic boom during the war instead of suffering despite being neutral.
That is how germany traded in rl but brits got to that quiet quickly so every ship going to neutral countries trough naval blockade was checked by tonnage so they compared imports of those countries before the war and then allowing only enough of tonnage to pass trough blockade so they can survive
Most underrated History Channel. I love how your analyses are always realistic and based in fact, rather than what we WANt to happen
eh. If you think about it a second time you can almost always find a major flaw or two in each vid.
here for example he ends the vid with saying france will pay back its loan about 20 seconds after claiming that germany will punish them so hard that they basically become economically dependant.
He also ignores the fact that GB may suffer from colonies probably wanting independence waaaay earlier due to the state of the world.
I feel like he is mostly an allied biased Alt history channel with little regard for the bigger picture. Better than most...but biased stays biased
@@andrefasching1332because the allies are the only faction with realistic win chances also he said that they will start to not pay in the entirety germany got economically destroyed yet they still paid their debt
@@andrefasching1332but i do agree about the colonies as they would definitely want to be more independent and the empire would overall be weaker but not too weak
I love your channel. No moronic predictions, no outlandish claims. Subbed.
Fellow Georgian B)
Fellow Enclave B)
nah
wait I've seen u before did u comment on ballin country version
The Entente surrendering while they are still militarily capable is very realistic, Germany tried to do the same but too late
What? The entente wouldn’t have surrendered here, they knew how shit germanys position was.
America just can't stop winning, even when we don't fight.
I swear the map with German Empire without Memel is driving me nuts
I was thinking the same thing lol
"Germany always wins a world war if America doesn't get involved"
- Matt Mitrovich, the Alternate Historian
Except that's not true. They basically lost the napoleonic wars until the russians saved them. Not to mention numerous wars as the holy roman empire.
@@mappingshaman5280 but you have to understand that germany’s political structures were so much different back then that they do not equate to the German Empire’s capabilities. The HRE wasn’t centralised and there was a lot of infighting, which is why they did not have much success in the wars they fought from the 15th - 18th century, plus it was mostly Austria calling the shots (a gross oversimplification of what actually happened but still applies). Prussia itself was not enough to combat the French at that time, due to the military strategies of Napoleon and how French military tactics at that time beat the Prussians, and they did not have the economic capabilities compared to post-Napoleonic wars, where they gained the rich lands of the Rhineland. So while it is on surface level true that “Germany” hasn’t won wars without outside parties intervening, it’s important to understand that the German Empire as an entity had formed much after the periods you mentioned, upon which they on their own had the legitimate power to combat the major power of Europe had it not been for America’s support of the Entente.
@@im_b_ran except to start Britain did stop ships going to Germany and the US tried to throw its weight around, which didn't work on Britain forcing the US to choose a side so we know this scenario was probably never possible.
1) the video only looks at the US being neutral and Britain for some reason automatically just goes with it.
when in fact there are many options for Britain, china was industrializing and had massive agriculture growing too at this point, and with the Suez under entente control they could blockade Germany and abandon the US with very little extension to resources movements, and possibly free some ships up.
2) when it comes to manpower the British empire alone had 4x more population than the central powers combined, double the population if the US joined the central powers, include France's empire too then if push came to shove im sure more manpower could be encouraged, plus japan was offering tens of thousands of troops for the war that could have been used.
3) even if we leave out the potential for china to help Russia with direct supplies, the video leaves out the fact Germany sent Lenin to Russia to cause the collapse, and that was because Germany wasn't doing well, if the video wants to pretend like everything would happen exactly as it did in reality, then he needs to come up with a reason to replace why Germany sent Lenin, because if they're doing better in this timeline there's no reason to suggest they would have even thought of it.
if you ask me this video is about as well thought out as the USA vs the world video, where it just pretends everybody just watches and does nothing while america attacks everyone.
@@mappingshaman5280 that wasn't Germany
Na if the USA wouldn't have taking part in WW2, Germany would have lost it anyway. Instead of the occupation as we now it, in our timeline, they probably be completely occupied by Russia instead.
This guy needs to make a channel called "Impossible History" where he only covers theory's so ridiculous that there is no timeline where it could have happened
Nice to see that quality content is being rewarded in the form of a sponsorship.
imagine being a german general trying to explain to the stubborn military dictatorship that there are hundreds of thousands of fresh american troops landing in france every month
So just kaiserreich but less weird
1) even if Britain keeps the North Sea blockade, the US can still export to Central Power ports such as Trieste & Fiume, which would also alleviate the situation in AH.
2) as Germany can o longer depend on submarines, they might be pushed to use the Kiel navy, which was oretty much unused in WW1.
3) by making Germany dependent on the US, Washington can dictate who can get which Caribbean colony.
You've missed one key point - the Allies may win on others fronts. For example, they could defeat the Ottomans and the Bulgarians like in our own timeline (these nation wouldn't become much stronger because of the US neutrality). And Austro-Hungary could be carved by its nationality because of the war exhaustion. In this case (quite similar with our timeline) Germany will left alone against the Allies with only inefficient Eastern puppets (that gived nothing but required a huge amount of resources).
One thing I dont understand, why do US citizens matter if the USA goes to war or not? It's a warzone, it's contested waters, if some US citizens go to Ukraine and get killed in the cross fire then that would not impact the USA to go to war, yes, yes, nukes, modern warfare, different times I know.
But its just so bizar how the USA was supplying the British and even using civilian ships to bring in weapons and then act surprised and outraged that Germany would sink those ships.
Like what's going on here? Did they have a propaganda media or something working for the government or the British?
Because the US was much closer to the UK and France and had almost no relationship at all with Germany. The Entene better represented American values like Democracy and Britain was obviously more culturally similar to the US.
The Americans, including the government, didn't know the Lusitania was a active participant in the war. The British made it look like the Germans attacked a uninvolved passenger ship.
@@rafaelrijo8175 hahaha, not they knew, this is what we call ''propaganda'' it's where you ignore facts and often make up your own to fit your narrative to reach a specific goal.
like how the USA and the British used the Zimmerman telegram as propaganda and a means to justify getting to ww1 which they were already funding, supplying and wanted to join (their elites in charge) since pretty much day 1.
So basically
Ww1 with no American involvement = USA profit
Here's an interesting question: What if the Austrian army had had tanks in 1914? There was an officer who recognized after a wargame how wars in the future will play out with current technology, and so came up with a concept for what we would call a tank today, which he proposed to the Austrian army in 1910. However, they rejected the idea, as they didn't believe his prognosis. If we imagine a world, however, where the Austrians did buy this concept, how might it affect the course of the war?
Probably not much, the tanks that participated on the side of Britain and France surprised German soldiers, but that’s it; there were too primitive and too few in order to do something relevant
Without America Entente is nothing
@@jqness4461You’ve got another 4 years to perfect the design, sure you’re developing weapons in peacetime rather than by actual wartime experience, but by the time war breaks out, we could imagine tanks would be a formidable weapon on the battlefield and might actually allow AH to make good gains against Serbia. Tanks would definitely not win them the war though.
Great video as always Mr.Potential! I have seen that you're channel has grown quite quickly recently and that now you also have a sponsor which means that within a year you would have tens of thousands of subscribers.I hope you can become a large youtuber and make a living out of youtube very soon
*your
@@sharkronical can you cope harder
Can we please revisit and continue this scenario?
Plz make a part 2, This was so interesting
Shouldnt the ottomans get libya back from italy instead of germany getting libya?
What if the death of Franz Ferdinand prevented world war 1?
The Central Powers had a huge moral boost with Russia's collapse, trade through Turkey and Central Asia was restored and their enemies didn't even capture any territory of the Central Powers with the exception of the defeated Russia.
Entente had a huge moral hit, riots among the French soldiers and they were as broke as the Central Powers.
Both sides would agree to a negotiated piece in this scenario.
I was hoping he would talk about the French mutany in 1917. I am not sure France would have been able to go on the offensive ever again without America .
@@miwi9883 lol
Technicaly, the entente held alot of ottoman lands in the Middle East. Aswell as some very small border territories, both in german Lothringen, the bulgarian border I think and the austrian-italian border.
@@sofiaormbustad7467 Apart from the Ottoman losses the occupied territories were small enough to say that they technically didn't occupy territory of the central powers
@@miwi9883no it would have just not anytime soon. The french also didn’t need offensives, they needed to wait. So bad Britain and France merely held the line by 1918 or 1919 they’d be able to cut through German lines like butter.
Would love to see this scenario continued! Great job as always :)
I do wonder what about Austro-Hungary? It was in much more worse shape than Germany so i expect that without any massive reforms it would still fall apart even in this scenario.
Your map at the end of the video looks a bit like the one from Hoi4 Kaiserreich
This is basically a Kaiserreich lore video, without the branding or details.
This channel is far too underrated rn, can’t wait to see it grow from here!
So its mostly like Kaiserreich, thats pretty neat
My alt take:
1914, war starts, US retains neutrality and ships cargo to all nations. As hostilities escalate it slowly starts to prefer allies but not by much, it also focuses on agricultural and similar trade while trying to not ship weapons or outright military goods. Starts a strong buildup.
1917, Germany is much stronger and Russia collapses as standard, but, Turkey is essentially facing the UK alone, Austria Hungary is facing the Italians and Balkans alone, and Germany is facing France, having to maintain its territories in the east, and trying to help its allies if it can, while all the Entente countries support France as a primary while focusing to at least gain more than they lose in their territory.
1918, Germany starts to slowly push into France while Turkey starts to crumble in the face of the UK and her allies, Italy starts to feel the full might of Austria-Hungary thats easy for Germany to support and has a large territorial expansion in the east. For a while A-H dominates in the field but eventually Italy digs into good defensive ground.
1919. France is facing collapse. Ottoman Empire collapses and UK is now able to strongly reinforce the BEF, preventing outright French Collapse. A-H now has to try to pacify its territory in the east, which is getting harder, defend in the Balkans against the UK and Balkan Minors that are now land connected to the Entente, and Italy is at the very least, holding firm. UK starts to do more and more disadvantagous loans and sales of territory for cash but is in no way facing economic collapse. Germany still receives trade from the US and Neutral occasionally fly US flag to trade with Germany, but its not much trade, UK randomly inspects ships and its almost entirely made of domestic and commercial goods and not military stuff.
1920. Everyone is exhausted, Germany continues to slowly advance in France but hasnt taken Paris, there has been at least one major German push towards it that got within 1914ish distance but didn't take the city. Germany is doing economically far worse and has to quell what amounts to civil wars in most of the E-European countries like the Finnish Civil war. While its slowly getting better the population are reacting more than violently to plans like "put a German/Prussian prince as Monarch and rule as Kingdom". Italy's unified population against A-H's many divergent rebelious voices is starting to tell and Italian and Balkan fronts are pushing into A-H, Germany is having to divide between trying to knock out France and supporting its Southren Front. The east is slowly turning from a resource drain to a resource surplus but barely. American sentiment is turning against the war in general which is increasingly viewed as a German War. Populations revolt against war and peace negotiations start. Final peace is essentially allowing competition in the balkans and e-europe for economic rights as well as some african and pacific island colonies for germany as well as no war reparations and nominal blame escalation alliances in general that lead to a small regional war turning into 5 years of planet wide carnage. No country is signalled out but network of interlocking hostile alliances is seen as cause. Germany revolts against militaristic style of expansion and confrontation of the 1910's and returns to methods of 1880's or so in terms of maintaining friendly relations and growing in peace. Alsac and Ruhr are turned into demilitarized and turned over to league of nations. Various small countries pop up and are either absorbed into the winner of the Russian civil war or retain independence. One of the participants of the conflict sees more resentment and someone militant rises to power there 20 years later and everyone rerolls as history always does. Facist Britannia anyone?
Bro jus yappin
But germany also had a few colonies
I really enjoyed the video!
Great video
germany would clutch the 1v3 for sure imo
This just seems like a perfect scenario for a Hitler-Napoleon regime to raise in france for a round 2
What if everyone was neutral
Great video! Keep up the good work
Great job!
Really liked this video and i would love the see the continuation of this what if into the 20's and 30's
An alternate history of what it the USA didn’t betray its values with the Federal Reserve and income tax would be an interesting one. Certainly, that’d mean no Great Depression
So glad I subbed underrated channel
This is basically Kaiserreich, isn't it?
You should definitely make a part 2 on this lol
Then hoi4 kaiserreich's lore is plausible after all hahaha
You gotta make a part 2
Nice video
I love your presentation of history and your narrative skills.
Great content, keep it up
Cool video
What if America had joined the central powers ?
What if Franz Ferdinand had live ?
As an American I wish this is what happened. No American deaths and great wealth from war profiteering.
Blame Wilson
man i love this channel so much i find the vid very intresting!
... kaiserreich?
My Main, and only Major, contention with this scenario is that i do Not believe Austria-Hungary would survive the war. Even with a German victory, they could Not keep their Empire together, and would, at best, become an Austrian rump state, and at worst, Join Germany.
This channel should get more attention and really can compleat with the big alternative history channels.
Your maps incorrectly show Cyprus under Ottoman control, it should be British
Another great video
Thank you
AMAZING VID
Good video.
What about Portugal??? They were an entente allie
Thank you for this edu-vid. I will post this video to my class (for debate). SPSV - Vallejo, Ca.
They wouldve starved to death by 1919
Love History!!
KaiserReich?
Honestly in my opinion, neither side would be very stable after a war with America trading with both sides extensively, favoring neither, possibly resulting in a chaotic unstable europe after the war. somewhat resembling the Hoi4 mod, Red Flood. Japan would’ve also taken advantage of the situation the great powers of Europe were in, and seize their colonies, with the exceptions of New Zealand, Australia, and Polynesia, possibly even allowing East Timor and Southern New Guinea to stay in European hands at least. (This is just speculation don’t criticize me)
Hi! Political Science and Economics student, with a family with a deep love of history with a personal passion for the subject as well. I really like your videos especially some of the more recent ones and kinda wish you had more like this on what ifs that interest me.
That said as for what I think would happen from here at least for the US as Europe would be alot harder to predict in this scenario in my opinion as it would be filled with just as much if not more political turmoil and unpredictable situations as OTL. But the US I believe would slowly begin to leave its isolationism entering into the 20s for a couple of reasons.
1. The War: Without direct involvement in the war I believe the anti war movement will slowly die off over time, especially as the political groups that supported that sentiment largely begin to focus either on other things, lessen in power, or change in sentiment due to a feeling by some of having 'missed out' a sentiment some nations that stay neutral at times seem to fall into though that's far from set in stone however nothing truly is in alternate history anyways. Resultingly I believe America will increase its interventionism in Latin America, and potentially begin to involve itself in Canadian Domestic politics depending how affected they are by the aftermath of the Great War, especially as America is prone at least in this time period to intervene one way or another in its unstable neighbors in order a continued stable beneficial status quo. Am I saying there will be any armed conflict? hell no, dont see that at all unless Canada breaks off from the UK entirely and suddenly collapses somehow. No I am talking economic, diplomatic, and political involvement with Canada. With said Involvement potentially resulting in a greater intermingleing of American and Canadian political and social movements.
2. The Economy: With the aftermath of the war alot of International trade will be rather damaged, and the ability of foreign nations to repay debts to America uncertain at least in the short term. Combine this with the drop in prices with the end of war time prices, while this will still see the largescale economic rise of America, even more then IRL potentially it will nonetheless in my opinion draw America out to become more involved in International trade. Takeing up part of the mantle the British and French 'empires' held as major importers and exporters of goods, particularly exporters with Germany, many of its puppets, and likely much of Europe as a whole becoming massive importers in the aftermath of the war both in the short and long term depending on the nation in question. Ukraine for example will have a immense demand for industrial goods of countless variety and the sheer size and population of the nation will make it difficult for Germany alone to supply its needs, especially as the German Empire recovers and keeps much of its industry oriented towards its military in order to maintain their enlarged Empire. This will hold true for many rising nations such as China, Japan, British Raj, and more. Further as profits grow as America involves itself more in global trade, the more it may be tempted to be involved further. This will in my opinion see a even stronger roaring 20s, at least in America. However it will leave America much more vulnerable to international trade disruptions especially involving conflict between major nations. Thus I believe a future economic crisis is inevitable still, however it might be delayed until Japan conducts a major invasion of China, or a new major war breaks out in Europe. Depending on how the economic crisis is handled America may once again turn isolationist however due to its great global trade ties at this point such isolationism could worsen the economic crisis even further.
3. Cultural Shift: The 20s will see a large if temporary major cultural shift in America that will make Americans much more open to the world. Full of hope, optimism, and other good feelings in a general time of good feelings. This would mostly see its effects in terms of more open global trade, and greater intervention willingness in the Americas however I doubt the America people will support any far off overseas adventures in Asia or something.
4. Late 20s Dust Bowl: While Agriculture would be doing great for most of the 20s, inevitably nature will do as nature does and theres not much that can change the Dust Bowl crisis showing up. However due to Americas position on the global stage, they can supplement any agricultural issues with its farmers by finding new markets from them. What people often don't realize is America was still sitting on a massive amount of foodstuffs during the crisis and food prices were rising from the crisis briefly and crashing in a manner that was ruining farmers from lack of demand. However this alternate America would be able to leverage its agriculture to export overseas more capably, especially among nations in Europe and Asia with good demand for agriculture, especially cheap foodstuffs.
Not sure that the Entente could convince Italy to join their side in a world without US economic support of the Entente. Perhaps they would adhere to their original treaty obligation to join the Central Powers or more likely simply remain neutral. If so, Italy would not lose anything, in 1919 ne economically stronger than in our timeline, and the Central Powers would be even stronger because Austro- Hungary would not have been sidelined by Italy at Capareto.
The economic support was limited. The aid they got mostly came from Britain they also mostly wanted land gains and they were promised that.
yes
A comment for the algorithm.
I really love your videos, even if I often disagree with you but I think that's exactly how alt history should work. In the end we can only speculate about what would have happen. Keep up the good work 👍
damn this channel is too underated
Hello everyone, love the video
Nope don't mut it at all, Yje Trance army was suffering from mutinies about the time the USA joining the fight was announced.
0:30 Is that "La Victoire est à Nous" playing in the background?
just putting a comment in cuz i like this guy
Nice vid
Good
If only
Good vid. I think it was wise to cut the vid when you did considering how many times people have pondered already on what a post ww1 world would look like if Germany won
Before I keep watching, If America had joined 1914 then I think it would've been harder to convince the public of the benefit of the war, after all it was before sinkings like lusitania that killed Americans and before the Zimmerman telegram so America would've been seen as America throwing itself into others business it has no right being in. Also the Americans were in fact likely the thing that decided the Entente victory as after 4 long years of war both sides were exhausted as hell and the fresh American troops against exhausted german troops certainly helped turned the tide a ton and after all the troops moved from the east that had it relatively easy on the eastern front without the Americans and no help coming the french would certainly have broke in the kaiserschlatt however I'm interested to see if my points are brought up in the video
What if the US and Japan were allies in ww2?
Serbia: 😐🤔😁
French revanchism was already pretty strong during WW1, and wiþ such a devestating defeat i see lots of political instability and potentiolly an extreamist goverment on þe rise
America be like: It's just business
Just play the HOI4 Kaiserreich mod
Great video and analysis!!! One thing that I think you overlooked thought is another consequence of a scenario where the U.S strong arms both Britain and Germany into allowing its trade to flow freely. At the beginning of the war, in response to the British blockade, Germany strong armed Denmark into mining the Danish straits even though by treaty it was an international waterway. In a scenario where the U.S was truly neutral, it would require pressure from the U.S on Germany to backpedal on this strait mining issue and allow unfettered U.S trade into the Baltic. In this case, the western Entente powers, through U.S middlemen, would better be able to send supplies to Russia via the Baltic and St. Petersburg. This would go a long way to alleviating Russia’s logistical issues during the war, possibly keep it in the war longer, and perhaps butterfly the revolution. In short, I think a truly neutral U.S would require an unlocking of the Baltic to trade which would help the help the logistics and supplies of the allied war effort.
Its unlikely that trade would have helped the russian empire that much, when its problems were already logistical in nature. WW1 wasnt the time you could just ship loads and loads of trucks to help with logistics.
5:50
Hi
A possible history video where Germany actually does well? Is this real?
America should have joined the Central powers
Please work on your thumbnails. Your work is absolutely incredible, with better quality of thumbnails you could potentially grow much faster.
Congrats on the first sponsor
Why Crimea is red here?
Don't you know that Geramans were there in 1918? Or maybe you consider Crimea as a part of russia?
WTF?!
Thanks.
12:54 Wrong!! There's just no way Italy would go unpunished!!! Why? They betrayed Germany & Austria, I'm pretty sure those 2 would seek vengeance against Italy for this! So Italy would have to be divided into 2 occupation zones, With the Ottomans getting the south. While the north would be tricky, Austria should get it... but you say they're too weak for that? Germany you claim doesn't want it, Bulgaria is also too weak + uninterested + too far. I guess they could stay independent, but it's more likely they will be given to Spain... despite their neutrality!!