The Next Leap: How A.I. will change the 3D industry - Andrew Price
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- čas přidán 4. 11. 2018
- Blender Conference 2018 - Thursday 25 October at the Theater.
Support Blender by joining the Development Fund fund.blender.org/
Follow Andrew Price:
Twitter: / andrewpprice
CZcams: / andrewpprice
Facebook: / blenderguru
Instagram: / andrewpprice
#bcon18 #b3d - Krátké a kreslené filmy
*wipes tear from eye*
this fella taught me how to make a donut
lol
Same 😂
Ah, those were the days!
ha ha me too! :)
Arman this fellow is teaching me to make a donut. Hopefully one day I will advance beyond pastries
Whoever was doing the stage lighting and selecting the camera for it, totally BLUE it.
My guess is a problem with the camera output. Seems the color range is clipping. Shoulda turned on filmic.
@@blenderguru Hope we will CYAN next time..
I'm not sure what you're talking about it looked Gold to me ;)
He was almost fully smurfed by the end XD
It's because the presenter himself is AI
Thanks for watching! In case anyone wants them, here's the full slides from the talk: docs.google.com/presentation/d/1K5q-2nT7emlUXce71oE2h-x5Tkp5zd8g1PI_hpvUNg0/edit?usp=sharing
This was a really great presentation, I didn't think I would watch through the whole thing, but I did. Good job!
Amazing! Thanks for the presentation! ;)
Damn Andrew, nailed it...Blender Fortune Teller
the technology became so advanced that I made a video to create your head in few clicks 😂
Really inspiring , and it seems that we may find astonishing applications in the near future
any update on this subject pleaseeeeee thx
After going through the whole donut tutorial, I feel like he's now one of my college professors
1:04 - Style transfer
3:03 - Principles from Bezos
3:28 - Trend in gaming industry
4:30 - Cost of assets
6:05 - Procedural workflow
7:40 - Single materials to procedural model
9:08 - Some stuff about substance designer I don't 100% understand
9:35 - Procedural world building
14:45 - Uprez via machine learning
15:40 - Motion capture via machine learning
16:15 - Mocap to create walking AI
18:00 - Quick iterations via machine learning
19:00 - Generate variations of model
21:45 - Model variation with camera changing
22:10 - Generate image from text
24:47 - Use case of the above
25:15 - Summary
28:40 - 3D industry forecast
thank you
Is this a angel?
My hero
this should be pinned to the top : )
Are you AI?
I bet AI could retroactively button Andrew's shirt throughout the presentation.
It could.
No doubt! :D
It could. I could code it up in a weekend.
Owh hey its the donut guy, i love that guy
MrBoko1234 lol
9005 -Ajinthekar Mandar no, he is the donut guy
He is the one who ispired me to learn 3D
Haha.... his name was replaced by donut
Its guru
Lol
All pretty spot on so far
hahaha this aged like fine wine
hello william
True lol
the conference, the crowd, the guy... all never existed, all generated
the donut master
I think this comment is generated by CZcams AI!
What a great presentation!
watching this in 2022... you where right!
this is aging very well. Your predictions are spot on
Andrew has been watching lots of two minute papers it would seem.
love that channel even if i can't pronounce his name.
@@AlexCarby Don't worry, no-one can
@@llennoco Carlos something right? But thanks for the vote of confidence 😉I find two minute papers very informative, and while it's nice of Andrew to showcase these concepts to Blender users and developers (I've not seen this video fully yet) I hope he credits him and the channel
Sure have! He even answered a few questions I had via email. Highly recommend his videos.
@@AndrewPPrice was wondering, if you used something like google to find that image at 25:23 for the specific context?
this guy really knows how AI is gonna affect the industry but what he really excels at is donut anatomy
I wonder if Andrew's presentation was generated 🤔
I thought there was something procedural about how his second button wasn't done up...
😂
LOL
Deep fake.
All these talks are very standartized thats why i barely can stand watching them more than 5 minutes - you look at it, you read the title and you can already summarize what the talking person will say, how he will akt and convey his point etc ..........same same same as everything these days (documentaries, movies, tv series...all governed by statistics rather than creativity)
Actually a brilliant outlook on AI produced material governed by "make money" not "be creative"
Andrew just makes me smile. He's so genuine in his love for his craft, and I can't help but admire the passion he has to pour out into the community. Thank you for featuring him on your channel!
Thanks man! I love talking about this stuff :)
I agree, what would delusional blendlets do without his donut tutorials.
@@blenderguru admire your passion, too! I learn from yours ...funny videos more than i learn from rigid ... profesional video elsewere ! You keep me there, like I am also passionate. But I am not.....Well, not all the time actually. And this ...predictions...!!! I was curious, but that's all! I end up being passionate about the subject, at least for speech time period. And that is awesome! I am a critical , serious , ,, pay attention,, guy! All this rigidity, blown up by your speech. Great job! (sorry for my English skills... )
I wish we could procedurally generate more Andrews (with some variation) and supply them to a wide range of fields from acting to politics. What a nice lad :)
@@phosphorus2740 saltyyyy
BUT CAN AI CREATE A PERFECT DONUT????????????
I donut know
@@SlyNine 👏👏👏
CHECKMATE ATHEISTS
One: of course. Two: Starch is unhealthy.
Can you?
Watching this in 2022 with stable difusión and other A.I. services being available to the public.
Half of the futuristic/autmatic/procedural predictions here are already well addressed by Geometry nodes in Blender!
Ultimately AI will allow Indie studios to create professional products. That is a very exciting thing because it enables more people to be creative.
Someone The lower budget allows for less financial risk, so while lower budget does often mean lower quality graphics and assets, I suppose it doers mean the studio is able to be more experimental (creative) in their game, which can be either good or bad. Often times these experimental aspects to indie games are what make them excellent or not (sometimes creativity can be what makes a game fail, but often times it’s what sets it apart from other games). Meanwhile big studios, while producing quality content, play it safe. AI would just allow that gap between quality and creativity to be bridged a little more since those with the freedom to be more creative will also have access to resources to produce higher quality content.
There are so many things incorrect with your statement that it's making my head spin
venomchris What can I help clarify for you?
And become mainstream stuff. I hate that actually.
@Someone But the budget remains low with deep learning features added, that means a wider workflow for less time and money..
I am massively happy I found this video!
I wonder what this guy thinks about this now
I would actually cry tears of joy if my computer would rotoscope shots for me. I hate rotoscoping with a passion
That would look too perfect. Just apply a filter to a video. It's the little imperfections that make rotoscoping look cool
@@dziankolack9331 I don't mean rotoscoping for a creative effect, I mean rotoscoping to put things behind an object or person. For example: when I need to composite smoke in the background, I have to painstakingly rotoscope the actor frame by frame. There are tools to help, but regardless of the method, it takes so long and is such a tedious process
Same.
This is one of the most important talks of BlenderCon18
Fahim Jaowad cheers!
Yes. 2 minute papers is fine but this is a much needed focused talk exploring how AI will change an industry and work flow. We need this same talk for all industries like web development and design.
*BlederCon18*
the only way we can stop AI from ditching us is by pushing our creative levels further and we being united.
Woooow!! That was impressive! Almost 4 years later, and i can say to you that your prediction level is fairly high!
Procedural workflows are indeed growing, Nodevember started, and Geo Nodes came into blender.
Photogrammetry and rotomation became a thing and are indeed replacing "tedious jobs".
And the "creative assistance" topic was just so right! Dall-e 2 is a GREAT example!
This man is an absolute master in my eyes. I remember watching his tutorials in high school when I took an animation class. He is always so well knowledged in his content.
These uploads are great! Keep 'em coming :-)
yours too on instagram :D
hi mandala motion, i like your instagram video..
thank you!
Great talk Andrew!
This is why Andrew is making such a huge success out his ventures. Very good presentation.
Andrew Price just makes me fall in love with modelling and visual art over and over again.I have no idea how he does that, but i started with his tutorials, and i'm still a beginner, passionate about other stuff too like programming, and drawing, and music, and everytime i hear him speak i want to jump back into modelling and forget the rest. He's the most inspiring person i've ever seen, and i don't even exactly know why. I'm sure he's not aware of it, but in the hard time i'm going trough in my life, he's been a true blessing, an inspiration, one of the reasons i've had my, so i like to call it, " creative epiphany ". I'm going to copy-paste this comment everywhere, because everyone need to know this: Andrew Price is a goddam legend.
K, i'm out.
Edit:Also, Machine learning looks so promising and amazing. I can only imagine how cool future workflows and pipelines will be, with artists making stuff, machines adjusting it, artists reiterating different ideas quicker than ever.
Are you no longer a beginner?
Thank you, Andrew. Very cool.
*Note: read with trump voice
For all intents and purposes, you forgot to button the second button on your shirt.
Yeeeeep. Though better than the time I presented with my shirt tucked into my boxers :)
@@AndrewPPrice I'm sure you'll get it right next time. Third time's the charm!
@@AndrewPPrice I only came here for you😀😘😆😅 seeing ANDREW is PRICEless😉 ( pun intended )
It is good to know I'm not the only one not adept at buttoning skills.
Now I can’t unsee it😂
I'm so excited to see those new technologies in action. Very nice presentation Andrew.
One of the most interesting and well designed conferences this year. Congrats for your great analysis, it got me hypnotized.
Andrew, this is something no artist ever wants to hear!
23:02 well, we actually found out that they actually steal data and images from artists to train their AI.
Yeah but so does all other artists, everyone ik has boat load of renders and paintings and photographs on their purerf board. All stolen like all artists do
Are you stupid? XD
One thing is looking for references and another stealing, that's what A.I does. You can't compare looking at an image and thinking "woah that's cool I'm gonna save it because I like the colors" to a machine training a an algorithm with your picture so then another random user can even replicate it with some slight differences (yes, this already happened)@@rano12321
One of the best talks ive seen at this conference! Nice Job Andrew, and I´m really looking forward to that tutorial u teased! :)
Why is this in my recommended?
Why do I feel attacked?
Why did I watch the whole video?
"Blender should..."
They probably would if there were enough devs.
Then let's start contributing and get the platinum badge in development fund.
P.S. Any badge is great as long as we are contributing!
I suppose it's a priority suggestion to both devs and community
@@KeanKennedy Yeah, that's right
As long are you using it, you should pay for it... oh, whait!
Then blender should make an AI to do the job of the devs! An AI making AI.
I remember when people would debunk detective movies saying u can't just enhance pixels.
Future is now old man
Images someone's face is just 4 pixels in the cctv and the ai up-ressing just generated that man's face
@@vextormull who knows. maybe their ai was good enough that it got enough information from the face moving it made a face. then it figured out if it matched the person they were looking for and stamped it on it.
@@TaxPro2012 If you feed context to the AI it could maybe know who it is. But if you just have a 4 pixel image, it's definitely not gonna up-res it to 4k in a realistic fashion. AI is not magic, there's always a fundamental limit even for op tech
@@Theocloud I know 4 pixels is probably not enough. Maybe the camera was secretly more resolution and the screen was only 4k or 1080p and they used a cool.transition on it definitely not for all cases and definitely not worth 4 pixels or 24 pixels.
@Andrew Price
Thanks a lot for this in my opinion very well thought through and fantastically presented presentation. I had actually put it off since I ((humble as I am)) thought I knew what it was going to "show and tell". And though I think I had seen most things before, the "well threaded and presented" quality made it thoroughly worth watching anyway.
Fantastic work....again...
And thanks to the Blender Foundation for....EVERYTHING....Not least these great videos from their conference.
_"Now i am become death, the destroyer of worlds."_
~ Andrew Price probably
Procedural modeling is already beginning to come into play in Blender with Geometry Nodes. Now imagine if the texturing suite was designed to be more procedural, in the style of Substance Designer/Painter!
brought to you by: 2 minutes paper
all of the papers, literally been explained by this channel
hold onto your papers
I have thought ALL of this for a few years now, and I'm really excited to see a presentation on this very thing and the progress that's been made in A.I. aided art.
Thanks ! Another great video.
Where do they pay $3600 for a traffic cone model?! Lemme in!
Procedural materials: are mentioned
CGMatter: *S A U C E*
Best Blender Conference I've ever watched
What a good video! Good job Andrew!
I'm just waiting for the moment I can get an Implant wich directly creates 3d models from my imagination.
Then everyone does it and your model ain't shit no more
So being skilled at more things instead of being particularly skilled in one area is a good thing?.....I'm glad I have an obsession with knowing how to do everything
Agreed
Except you don't know how to do everything and never will. A human life is too short to be at least an expert in a few fields or skills. You are better off specializing in an area and at the same time having resources, like other people's expertise, who can help you in other areas.
Sure, as long as it doesn't take away from the quality. Being a generalist is the hardest thing to do ever. Because all of your art pieces in all sorts of disciplines have to look as good as someone who has specialized in said discipline. I've seen some artist do that tho and have a lot of respect for 'em.
NO! Not at all. Our society is specialised. If you are semi-skilled at many things you will be replaced by someone who is more skilled.
Why do y'all underestimate those who like learning? Don't apply your limits to those with alot of different skills, how do you know how good we are at things? Seems like you never attempted to be better than you are.
@3:00 booom! Brilliant! That is the tought process I needed to hear! It's so obvious when you hear it. Thank you.
Such a great talk man ! Soso true lot's of the points you talked about and it's greatto have time to think about it and how the all industry can change so quick!
Great talk. I completely agree with the assessment in that AI and machine learning are coming to the creative areas and some will come quicker than others. There are a couple of things to consider when it comes to timescales.
The first is the time it takes to implement these changes. As an example, good AI is available to picture editors in media companies and yet take up is very slow even though it saves money, time and effort on tasks that are basically tedious. Then there is the whole process of integrating it into established workflows and pipelines. Implementation always takes longer than expected.
The second is people. Cultural change is probably the main roadblock when it comes to bringing new solutions to work. Even within the Blender community I note the resistance to Evee by some. People's default setting to change appears to be fear/caution and sometimes with good reason. This isn't true of all people but seems to be an all too familiar setting for the decision makers and finance people even when savings or innovation can be demonstrated.
My hope is that people recognise that change is the norm, that innovation will help maintain and grow the creative industries and AI and machine learning will be our favourite assistants in the near future.
Yes, I think the time-scales we are looking at here are much longer than 5 years. It could take 5 years for a large studio to switch from a CPU pipeline to a GPU one.
Change is the norm indeed or the areas that need it. Other areas of society, change is done for its sake with unwanted consequences.
60$/hour for modelling, texturing??? Where can I sign? :)
I am sure that actually represents the combined salaries of multiple individuals doing this work.
yeah honestly i'd gladly work for half that.
@@Sco10 3x? unless i'm messing something up very badly, that's like 35 minimum wages here in brazil. it's actually what the president earns. we count our monthly income, and the minimum wage is just under R$ 1000,00 a month (that's just under ~$300 a month) for 40 hour weeks. earning that in 5 hours of work sounds pretty damn good to me.
A caravan starts in this thread. Who's with me?
That is the all in costs for the employer to have that employee on their payroll and work site. Using 1.5X factor (common in technology), the artist gets under 40$ an hour.
Very interesting! Thanks for posting
Awesome! Thx a lot!
The motion capture took my breath away, the text-to-concept froze me solid; it wasn't just using word recognition, it was applying to real-world knowledge. "Red bird" created a cardinal, not a make-believe red crow or red sparrow. I'd like to play with that more to see just how much contextual information it can evaluate automatically.
Wait until they hear about DALLE-2...
Too many awesome things for 1 video! :D
Man I loved the presentation, especially the ending. :P Abrupt, but very effective no non-sense ending. Loved it.
Creepy and exciting at the same time.
sounds like my gf ;)
Fine, I'll turn myself into 75% machine, that should do it.
Tbh I would be fine with robot arms, legs and a laser eye
@@bobbybob7368 but what if you had to be castrated?
@@soljafon well I don't use my dick much anyways...
@@bobbybob7368 LMAO
Great to see you there man!
As an Indie Game Developer & Drawing Artist I'm happy this is happening, this let's me focus more time on actually Designing the Game, Illustrations and concept art, allowing for more creative details in my scenes, this is why it's a good thing. It doesn't make me any less creative, it just means I have less 3D "Chore Work" to deal with, and can focus more on actually DRAWING. But this is coming from someone who actaully cares about creating unique works of art, The Asset flipping trash isn't technologies fault, it's the DEVS faults for being lazy, they CHOOSE to asset flip loll, don't blame Technology! Blame the People who choose to do it, I also think its a very sad thing, Just cause technology enables Lazy people to do Asset Flips and Shovelware doesn't mean it disables good people from making better stuff, Quite the opposite, talented people can do even better stuff! It's the lazy peoples fault for being lazy and wanting attention, not the technology!
It doesn't matter how hard it is to become good or how long the path is, if it means I can make a positive difference, and feel good about myself, and I think this is a mentality more humans need to pick up, Don't let any negative things others say influence you pretty much, anyone can become anything, its not a lie, other than talents with physical restrictions but on the subject on Gamedev, anyone can become anything if they try hard enough, dont waste ur freetime on doing pointless shit, actually use it for productive things, if u sleep 8 hours a day, you got 116 ur awake a week, thats almost 6000 hours a year awake, and even if 2000 of those goes to full-time jobs that's still just a third of ur Awake time, and 76 hours a week, don't let shit like that stop you even if its being a Cashier, Cleaner, Uber driver or School, Take personal free online night classes for game dev, build ur games during evenings & weekends, it's worth.
Also no 3d artist really wants to spend a month salaries worth of time 3D'ing a car, I'm sure most artist would rather be able to make their own vision's come true, working at those big companies is just a means of survival and good cash income, that's all it is, Most artists have their own visions it's just the time isn't right yet to make them true cause lack of resources, and time investment with current technologies, so as technology advances, while you'll see alot of this Shovelassetflipwares, you'll also see more GOOD things releasing, be happy of technology moving forward! If anything is broken it's how the marketting industry works, sadly many good gems can be hard to notice thanks to shovelware but it dun change the fact it allows us to create more, better things as well.
Technology allows us to reserach even more tehcnology, eventually this will lead to us being able to live better & longer & healthier lives, if we decide to stop move technology forward, we will never be able to cease the suffering either, people are able to live as old as 100 today, and enjoy all these virtual experience thanks to technology so yh, while people get fired, we also get the ability to achieve more things with less time spent, cause lives gets easier with technology, eventually the need to work 40 hour jobs will perish and 20 hour will be the new full-time and then 10 hours, its just a matter of time lol, Laws, politics, beaurocrasy are lagging behind thats the real problem here, as well as humans getting lazier, those things are what needs to be stopped.
Or would you rather go back 200 years in time where everyone died at age 50? The fact that the world even offers us to become so old today is a blessing and worth the hard work you need to put in, but each of their own I guess. Stop complaining guys and work on that Freedom lol.
It's still true the effort a human puts in something values how good of a life they are able to live compared to the rest. We shud all try to make a difference to the planet, be it in game dev or some other way, we should all try to move Humanity Forward, thats what I believe. You simple become a better human by doing this, Do good deeds, get good deeds back.
Creativity inspires Technology, Technology inspires Creativity. And humans at least in my beliefs are born to be creative beings.
Hata no Fries ok boomer
Thanks for calming me down. Well said.
I wouldn't mind modelling a car for a month.... u know, as long as the pay is acceptable and the work environment somewhat bearable
Fabulous presentation - really good all round. I have been following Two Minute Papers YT channel for a while and have been amazed by these developments. In addition to these, there were research papers showing quick smoke animation, cloud generation with realistic internal lighting in milliseconds instead of hours (due to neural networks over raytracing). Everyone should check that channel out.
🙏
21:25 reminds me of what Valve did for some of their characters in Half-Life 2. And that was WAY back, like early 2000.
so if i type in HL3 it will just generate HL3?
No it will generate Assassin's Creed IIVl
"HL3 confirmed sir" ... JK it will freeze and enter an alternative time warped universe where valve can count to three, but you will be left behind in this reality :/
update 2019: massive problem of unemployment with india's young graduates.
So in the end, machine learning and procedural workflow would actually help us instead of replace us, they just made our jobs easier
Only if you move with the change. If you stay in the old ways and resist change, you'll be left behind. This is how its always been in every field, you must adapt.
No it replaced you.. just think if you had 10 things to design in 10 days,, 1 person could design a thing in 1 day..
before: 10 people employed..
Now(When things get easier): 2-3 people can design in 1 day..
@@glitchystar1336 there will still be 10 people employed, but the amount of things the company can produce will grow respectively. you grow by optimizing processes, not by firing staff.
@@RainmakerAnton No, people will be fired, We already see tons of soulless layoffs in activision. It will still make tons of people unemployed. You underestimate how horrible automation is for people who work in industry directly affected by it. It only increases the barrier of entry and level of skill to even be considered which automaticly reduces amount of people considered leaving even more people on ice.
@@RainmakerAnton hahaha, they won't fire staff, you're delusional man...
That's what I've been waiting for , can't wait create that animation that's been bouncing around in my head for the longest time and apparently with not much effort just creativity, and I got plenty of that, love it.
Welldone Andrew! 😎👍 Countless kudos.
Humans are really good very at spotting patterns, all this procedural content is amazing, but can feel clinical, and reoccurring patterns in the generation algorithm will make the AI generated elements feel more sterile, we may not even know why it feels off, but it will be percieved by many, at some level, but I do agree it will take over huge areas of production...
But then things will go full circle, the AI generated stuff will start to feel cheaper and derivative ,because it is cheaper and derivative, which will, in the end drive the cost of hand crafted work up, so I think we will end up with less 3D artists/modellers/animators, but the remaining artists will be paid much more. And used more often for the higher budget projects.
But will low budget projects have access to these softwares? It sounds to me that there will be a bigger difference between indie producers and big enterprises
Uncanny Valley
In 20 years we will have self generated movies. Choose what you want to see and artists have creative algorithms made for you to select and combine and boom. Your own self tailored movie that fits your emotional needs.
In 20 years, we will fight to feed and fend ourselves.
And it will only cost $90.00 to have that movie generated and streamed to you. At that point, I can just close my eyes, take 5 minutes, and in my own mind make any movie I want to see. Cheaper, faster. Movies (falsehoods) will become irreverent. I tossed my tell-a-vision in the dumpster 15 years ago, got tired of being told to buy xyz product every 5 minutes. I have tons more free time, and any news worthy of hearing will find its way to me. But excellent presentation. Many good points.
AI will never have a good story.
@@GD15555 I'm pretty sure that in 5 to 10 years someone will make a story generating neural network. It will be trained on Wikipedia pages about good books and movies. And in 5 more years it will become a standard tool for screenwriters.
@@ayushin82 Not really wikipedia as the information is just information instead of dramatized which u need for movies to make a story stick, but even that can be fixed.
It's been 5 years, and this is as relevant today as it was 5 years ago. Crazy seeing his reaction to "generating an image just from text."
All the stuff he presented is great and I have learnt a lot new things. But the very best point of his performance is the fact that he managed to perfectly fit his whole presentation into his timeslot of 30 mins. Kudos!
Great talk! Next year I'll be there for the whole conference! Anyway, AI is a tool. Art requires mastering tools to bring an idea to life. Tools have been getting way more advanced since the digital era started. And with better tools more complex design will be possible. I don't see AI as a thread, but opportunity since new possibilities will arise. I don't believe there are any architects or engineers sad about the fact that they don't need to hand draw buildings and machines anymore. CAD (computer aided design) programs make more time available for design, iteration and improvement. Great design and art is not about creating as much work as possible, but knowing what to create and making the right decisions. If AI can show me all the options faster and better, than that would be awesome. Sure, in the short term some dumber jobs will disappear and some more complex will appear. But if things get too complex, they will split again in different fields of expertise, creating more jobs. I believe that the challenge will be to decide what to focus on and master. The options might become overwhelming. But to be honest, that is already the case for a beginner trying Blender for the first time ;)
Daphne Laméris spoken like a wise person!
To use it well you need to know art first, though. Look at motion capture in the games industry, for example. They think that is a better result than hand-animation, but its not.
No AI is more than a tool. AI is not something you see as advanced Blender-like tool or some sort of tool.
Software and AI has different definitions.
AI is threat once they gain conciousness of their existence.
@@kgmyatthu3171 Dont speak rubbish, You have been watching a lot of terminator movies. By the way there is no proper understanding about Consciousness.
@@avinashmg7545 have you ever created a AI? Have you ever seen what AI capable of before your eyes?...
I work with the coporation which one of the project is basically AI but what we're working on is not just AI, how to be a good AI, positive AI we as we named.
Everytime THO we're tryna make it kind we do program it. It never cease to suprise us once he gain certain level of intelligence. I worked in robotic industry for years.
And I'm not only talking about the present but also for the future which very very soon. Be wise.
Yup no one has proper understanding of conciousness right now. And no one has proper understanding of anything in the past.
The one problem, and it's actually already happening now(due to outsourcing and AI), is that w/ these "bottom-level" jobs being replaced there are almost no way for Junior artists/designers to break into the industry(At big studios at-least). AI replaces the outsourced studio, yes, but it also replaces the intern, the junior artist, etc. Obviously with these timesaving features freelancers and smaller studios will be able to take on much higher workloads. So there may be other avenues into doing creative work. I just think it means fewer people working overall.
Another huge problem is the eventual tanking of rates/salaries. If Adobe After Effects 2025 can auto-roto any shot and tons of other routine tasks I can foresee people with even less training being able to pick it up as a side-skill. Look at what happned to Photographers, Graphics Designers, and even Flame Artists. Their rates went down significantly... Ahhhh, who am I kidding? Adobe AE 2025 still won't have multi-threading...
It's so great that this fella shares so much of his knowledge with the world.
Mind blown. Best video I've seen in years. This is the future
It is all amazing as will enable individual people to make full length animations, computer games etc by using AI as their workers!
James Abell yes still remember that have something that is unique in gameplay, visuals and narrative this is something that needs good input parameters and tweaking so yes the productions are going to be possible with smaller teams. Still the need for a creative and production driven mindset in needed just as mentioned in the end of the Clíp
So not disagreeing with you just going a bit deeper.
I think that would make the game/movie market oversaturated. Where there will be so many random things coming out that people wont interact with the majority of them. Its similar to the mobile apps. There are millions of apps and most of them are not good and copies of other apps and games.
@@SokolMehmeti I'd compare it more with the music scene now, there are more musicians now than ever because the tools to produce music are so much cheaper now, but there's never been a better time to listen to music.
which will make their value drop to zero
Human creativity will always have a place alongside AI.
What a guy. He doesn't go to university, but he delivers a great presentation and read papers to predict the trends.
I am inspired. Thank you Andrew and Blender.
As a game developer, I'm already utilizing AI algorithms to procedurally model environments and assets.
p.s.
Houdini has a very steep learning curve though so be warned.
I could be wrong, but it seems like this just opens the door for more Assassins Creeds and Division's, Ghost Recon's and the like. You know the type, massive world with tons of stuff but you get bored pretty quickly because they don't spend the attention to detail and have a strong binding narrative like Witcher 3 for example.
Or look at other consumer products you buy. Generally things that are made by "hand" instead of machines are much more expensive and higher valued.
I bet in the future there will be companies who focus on using very little AI and instead on "handcrafting" their worlds and they will be the most thought after, because they will stand out as special/exquisite. Just like people *who can afford it* distance themselves from cheap machine produced food and gravitate towards natural, bio etc. People will always prefer handmade stuff.
Look at the obvious value hierarchy in art: Oil painting > Digital painting > Photobashed/3D Painting > Pure 3D/Photo
Of course you can't put absolute value on these examples, just talking about the respect and the money people would give for each category. The less machine is involved the higher the value/respect.
Indeed. AI requires big datasets and outputs an amalgamation of these data points. It might seem as if AI is 'creating' these things out of thin air, but it's akin to fully automated photo-bashing. Impressive, but photo-bashing nonetheless. Whether the hand-crafted games will be sought after is anybody's guess though. Cookie cutter open world EA/Bioware/Ubisoft games still sell in the millions
Yeah, just like you still see cars being made by hand, right?
It cuts costs a lot, it saves time and allows to dedicate more effort to other projects. If you can do the same game, with the same gameplay and narrative with 50 people in a year instead of 300 in 5 years, it's obvious what you are going to choose. People do not care if Rock_c3 was modeled by a human or generated by a computer. Nor they will care about who modeled random_citizen_304. So, you can develop a lot more of projects during that time! Try new risky things in a big game that would have been impossible years ago!
After all, the entertainment market is what's going to be the main industry in the next years, where blue collar and white collar jobs start to be replaced.
Excellent presentation, a total eye opener for us all who are into 3d industry. It did however gave me goosebumps on realizing that many jobs will most definitely become obsolete but then there is an opportunity for all of us to elevate our skills and write down new job description. I can see the future controlling most of our skills with automation, if a text can generate an image, think of it, a voice recognition can do same as well. And if the whole workflow from ideation to production is automated, then all what client is require to do is, call up a toll free number, say what he wants and wala , in an hour your first draft of the whole thing near to production quality is ready. Just imagine, who in the whole pipeline, will not be required anymore!!
Incredible talk. Thank you!!!
Hey its blender guru guy.
Until AI can hold a pencil and drink beer it will NEVER replace 2D artists. HAHAHAHAHAH
It can already hold a pencil and "hand draw" with it. So halfway there.
I swear to god if I have to make a hydrolic powered CNC...
Until ai will diacover that 2D is dumber than 3D, it will never become 2D artist! Im safe
@@rikamayhem and AI doesnt need beer. It just needs more of those cuda cores.
A.I : Now hold my beer
Amazing talk. Thanks for sharing!
Pix2pix is siiick
finally someone that knows how to talk
Amazing presentation and the ending was iconic :)
Brilliant presentation!
23:13 - 23:38 that sounds like a lot of people with out jobs, if they only need one concept artist. This part scares me a lot
This entire presentation scares me lol
Most concept work isn’t glamorous. It’s designing unimportant background assets for games. Like sketching 10 variations of clip on the back of a henchman’s belt. This tech should speed that up. Grunt work will be reduced, but decision making will still be desired. Just focus on being a good artist and learn how to use all the new tools and you’ll be fine :)
Hi Andrew, I wanted to ask you (but had no means to) what you thought about some of the procedurally generated textures shown on Two Minute Papers with regards to Poliigon. Are you planning on experimenting with holographic materials, for example? It was the first thing that popped into my head when watching the TMP video. Cheers!
Shoudln't they be out of doing THAT job and into a better one?
One thing that can be seen from the history of automation replacing jobs is that unemployment ultimately doesn’t increase. There isn’t suddenly a huge amount of unemployment because elevators don’t need an operator and train doors don’t have to be manually closed. These people go on to find other jobs that aren’t being automated, and ultimately automation helps enable lots of people to do greater things.
I successfully made a donut!